The Bum's NFL December's POD'S-Trends-Stats !

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, December 5

Houston at Jacksonville, 8:40 ET
Houston: 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game
Jacksonvile: 2-10 ATS in home games in games played on a grass field

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NFL

Week 14

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 5

8:25 PM
HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Houston
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Thursday's games

Texans (2-10) @ Jaguars (3-9)—Jax won three of last four games after an 0-8 start, but all three wins were on road; they upset Texans 29-27 (+11) for their first win in Week 10, recovering three Houston fumbles (+2 turnovers) in game where Texans converted 10-18 on 3rd down and were outgained by 148 yards. Jaguars won field position battle in last six games (+8 vs Texans) after losing it in first six; they’re 0-5 at home, with 27-14 loss to Arizona closest of five games. Houston lost its last 10 games, despite scoring 23+ points in four of last five; they’re 2-9-1 vs spread this year, 0-6 when favored. Texans lost last four road games after winning season opener at San Diego by a FG. Texans won five of last six series games, winning 24-14/27-7 in last two visits here. Series was swept in six of last nine years. Jags were -9 in turnovers their first five games; they’re +3 in last seven- road team covered their last seven games. Home teams are 1-5-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Four of last five Houston games, six of last eight Jaguar games went over the total.




NFL

Thursday, December 5

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NFL Thursday Night Football betting: Texans at Jaguars
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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 43)

The Houston Texans' franchise-record losing streak is up to 10 games, and even Thursday's trip to Jacksonville no longer seems like an easy win for the defending AFC South champions. The Texans let one slip away Sunday, falling 34-31 to visiting New England after leading by 10 at halftime and being up by three in the fourth quarter. Jacksonville rallied for a 32-28 win at Cleveland last week, its third win in the last four games after dropping eight straight to start the season.

While the Texans are playing their way into contention for the top pick in next year's draft - they own the league's worst record at 2-10 - the Jaguars' chances of picking first are fading, as they're one of four teams at 3-9. Jacksonville has yet to win in front of its home crowd but has three straight games to try and change that, with Buffalo and Tennessee visiting the next two weeks. "We don't look ahead much, but I said, 'We have a great opportunity with three (home) games in a row,' " Jaguars coach Gus Bradley told the team's website. "It doesn't make it any more important than an away game, but it is special to play at home."

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 60s with a 14 percent chance of rain and winds blowing SE from corner to corner at 5 mph.

LINE: Houston opened at -2.5 and has been bet up to the key number of -3. The total has jumped to 43.5 at some markets.

POWER RANKINGS: Texans (+6.0) - Jaguars (+6.5) + Home Field (-3.0) = Jaguars -2.5

ABOUT THE TEXANS (2-10, 3-9 ATS): Houston did a lot of things right against the Patriots, including rushing for a franchise-record four touchdowns and scoring TDs on all three of its trips to the red zone. Quarterback Case Keenum has played fairly well despite being winless in six starts, passing for 1,433 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, and the ground game continues to produce even with Arian Foster on injured reserve following back surgery. Statistically, the Texans should be better than their 2-10 record - they rank 10th in total offense and third in total defense - but a minus-12 turnover margin contributes to their ranking 29th in scoring offense and 27th in scoring defense.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (3-9, 4-8 ATS): Jacksonville aims for its first three-game winning streak since 2010 as the league's last-ranked offense has shown signs of life recently. Chad Henne has taken over the starting quarterback job for the remainder of the season and led the Jaguars on an 80-yard drive for the winning score against the Browns. The defense still ranks 30th in scoring and 25th in total yards but turned in a dominant performance in a 13-6 win at Houston two weeks ago.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Jacksonville.
* Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Jacksonville has recorded eight takeaways in the last four games, matching the total from its first eight contests.

2. Houston WR Andre Johnson has 49 career 100-yard receiving games and has caught a pass in 113 consecutive contests.

3. The Jaguars have topped 100 yards rushing in two straight games after failing to do so in their first 10.

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Where the action is: Bettors like Texans, Over

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars - Open: +2.5, Move: +3.5

The Jaguars are suddenly on a hot-streak as they've won three of their last four games overall and are 3-1 ATS over that stretch. Still, these teams are as bad as it gets in the grand scheme of things and have a combined record of 5-19.

As awful as the Texans have been, sportsbooks began writing Texans tickets as soon as lines became available.

"Early action has come in on Texans and we went to -2.5 (-115), then -2.5 (-120) and then we booked sharp action on the Texans, pushing us to that very key number of 3," Stewart tells Covers. "Last night we went to -3.5 (-105) /+3.5 (-115) and at that number we’ve booked two-way action."

Even though the Jags are hot, all three of their wins have come on the road and EverBank Field does not really strike fear into visitors.

"No question I believe we opened this game a bit short," says Stewart. "The Jags have no real home-field advantage and while they have the better overall record and ATS record, the Texans are still looked up by the betting public as the vastly superior team. So far 60 percent of the action is on the Texans."

The majority of wagering outlets opened the total at 43 and bettors have been backing the Over all week. The number has gone up slightly and Stewart believes it could move a bit more as kickoff approaches.

"As for the total, we opened 43 and pretty much all the early money was on the over," he says. "We went to 43.5 Wednesday morning and we’ve been dealing that total since. Nearly 75 percent of the money is on the over and I wouldn’t be surprised if we pushed it a tick higher to 44 as we get closer to game time."

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NFL

Thursday, December 5

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Tale of the Tape: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
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The "battle" for the top pick in next year's NFL draft takes center stage Thursday night when the Houston Texans visit the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Houston has the upper hand in the race for the No. 1 selection, losers of 10 consecutive games and owners of the worst record in the league. Jacksonville is marginally better at 3-9, but has won two straight games and three of its last four - including a 13-6 triumph over the Texans on Nov. 24.

Check out the matchup in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Despite being on a miserable losing skid, the Texans have actually been moderately productive on offense. The Texans come into Week 14 having generated the 10th-highest yardage total in the NFL (4,383), including an average of 248.5 passing yards. The rushing game has remained decent despite the absence of Pro Bowl running back Arian Foster, sitting 14th in the league in yardage (1,401) with six touchdowns - three of which were scored by Ben Tate last weekend.

The Jaguars have been a mess on offense, failing to sustain drives while dealing with an injury to starting quarterback Blaine Gabbert and a suspension to star-wide receiver Justin Blackmon. Jacksonville ranks 23rd in passing yardage, with just eight touchdowns through the air and 17 touchdowns - tied for the second-most in the league. The run game has been an abomination, racking up just 847 total yards on three yards per carry with seven touchdowns.

Edge: Houston


Defense

The Texans' defensive statistics against the pass are positively mind-boggling. While Houston has allowed just 2,255 yards through the air - the second-fewest next to Seattle - it has surrendered 20 touchdowns while snagging a league-low five interceptions and registering a paltry 28 sacks. Houston has struggled against the run so far this season, allowing the 13th-most yards (1,392) while surrendering 4.1 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns on the ground.

As with the offense, Jacksonville's defense has been tormented all season long. The Jaguars have surrendered 3,008 passing yards - 10th-most in the NFL - while giving up 23 touchdowns through the air against just seven interceptions. Jacksonville's 20 sacks are the fewest in the league through the first 12 games of the campaign, and they've permitted the fourth-most rushing yards (1,565) and second-most rushing touchdowns (16) to date.

Edge: Houston


Special Teams

Houston has had a strong kick return game so far in 2013, averaging the eighth-most yards per kickoff return (25.1) while ranking 23rd in punt-return average (8.1) but having recorded an 87-yard punt-return touchdown. The Texans have also allowed a punt-return score, while giving up the fourth-most average kickoff return yards (26). Kicker Randy Bullock has had one of the roughest seasons of anyone in his profession, missing on nine of his 29 field-goal tries.

Jacksonville is elite on kickoff returns - averaging 25.8 yards per attempt - but downright putrid when it comes to punt returns, managing a league-low 4.3 yards per attempt. Opposing teams have struggled against the Jaguars' special teams defense, averaging just 21.6 yards per kickoff return and 7.5 yards per punt return. Veteran kicker Josh Scobee hasn't been busy, but he has been solid when called upon, converting 17-of-19 field-goal opportunities.

Edge: Jacksonville


Notable Quotable

"It's a challenging day. I'm used to seeing competition and who's fighting for the ball and all that, and we've had to tone it back with no pads. it's been a challenge, but it's the right thing to do." - Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley on electing to have his players practice without pads for the short week

"We struggled to get the ball to anybody that day, it wasn't just Andre. We just really struggled in the passing game to execute and they did a great job against us, especially up front. I can say it just wasn't a very good performance on our part, it wasn't just about Andre." - Texans head coach Gary Kubiak on receiver Andre Johnson's struggles in the previous game against the Jaguars

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Texans at Jaguars

December 4, 2013


HOUSTON TEXANS (2-10) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-9)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Houston -3, Total: 43

The Texans hope to wake up from a nightmarish 10 straight losses when they visit the upstart Jaguars on Thursday night.

Houston is 3-7 ATS during its skid, but it has lost each of the past six games by seven points or less, falling 34-31 at home to New England last week.

Since starting the season 0-8, Jacksonville is 3-1 (SU and ATS), with all three victories coming on the road, including last week’s 32-28 win in Cleveland. But at home, the Jags are 0-4 (SU and ATS) and losing by an average score of 29 to 6. Before the Texans lost 13-6 to the Jags in an ugly game two weeks ago, they had won five straight in this series (4-1 ATS).

Both teams have negative betting trends working against them, as Houston is 5-17 ATS (23%) versus very bad defensive teams (27+ PPG allowed) since 1992, while Jacksonville is 2-9 ATS (18%) as a home underdog over the past two seasons.

The Texans had hoped to get TE Owen Daniels (broken fibula) back in time for this game, but he has already been ruled out. The only significant recent injury for the Jaguars is DE Jeremy Mincey, who is questionable with a knee injury that has forced him to miss the past two games. The Texans are averaging a paltry 19.2 PPG (4th-worst in NFL), despite gaining 365 total YPG (10th in league).

They are subpar both on third downs (34.7%, 24th in NFL) and in the red zone (52% touchdowns, 20th in NFL), but have cut down their turnovers with just six giveaways in six games since QB Case Keenum has taken over. Keenum is completing 54% of his passes for 1,433 yards (7.5 YPA), 8 TD and 3 INT, but he had a rough game against the Jags two weeks ago when he was 18-of-34 for 169 yards (5.0 YPA), 0 TD and two sacks taken in a 13-6 loss. Top RB Ben Tate also had a horrible game in that defeat, rushing seven times for just one yard.

However, in Tate's two career games in Jacksonville, he has rushed for 100 yards on 17 carries (5.9 YPC) with two touchdowns. Tate is also coming off a monster performance against New England, rushing for 102 yards (4.6 YPC) and three touchdowns.

Top WR Andre Johnson also struggled against the Jags (two catches for 36 yards), but he caught eight passes (on nine targets) for 121 yards last week, giving him 1,123 yards this season. With TE Owen Daniels still out, TE Garrett Graham will continue to see plenty of passes headed his way, as Graham has garnered 32 targets over the past three games.

Defensively, Houston allows 26.9 PPG (27th in NFL), despite ranking third in the league in total defense (304 YPG) and second in passing defense (188 YPG). The Texans have been gashed in the red zone though (68% touchdowns, 2nd-worst in NFL), and have been unable to generate turnovers on a consistent basis, tallying just nine takeaways for the entire season, including only one in the past three games combined.

The Jaguars rank last in the NFL in scoring offense (14.5 PPG), total offense (286 YPG), rushing offense (71 YPG) and red-zone efficiency (37% touchdowns). But they have averaged a respectable 22.0 PPG in their past four contests despite gaining only 284 total YPG.

QB Chad Henne is coming off his first multi-touchdown game of the season, throwing for 195 yards and 2 TD in the victory over the Browns. For the season, he has completed 61.4% of his passes, but has only 2,319 passing yards (211 YPG, 6.5 YPA), 6 TD and 10 INT. His favorite target is WR Cecil Shorts, who caught four fourth-quarter passes in last week's win, capping his day with a 20-yard TD reception in the game's final minute. He also had eight catches for 71 yards in the victory in Houston two weeks ago.

But the real story of that matchup was RB Maurice Jones-Drew who totaled 144 yards from scrimmage and scored the game's only touchdown. He is in the midst of a career-worst season with 3.2 YPC, but has reached the end zone in four straight games. Jones-Drew has also loved facing the Texans in his career, piling up 803 total yards (114.7 YPG) and 8 TD in seven starts against them.

Jacksonville's defense has looked like a new team coming out of its Week 9 bye, especially the run defense which has allowed only 68 rushing YPG on 2.7 YPC in the past four games. This is quite an improvement from the 162 rushing YPG on 4.8 YPC allowed in the first eight weeks. However, a lot of this is due to teams choosing to throw all over the Jags, compiling 291 passing YPG in this four-week stretch.

This Jacksonville squad still ranks third-worst in the NFL in scoring defense (29.3 PPG), fourth-worst on third downs (43%), and is tied for 25th in red-zone efficiency (60% touchdowns). The Jags have done a better job recently of taking the football away though, with eight forced turnovers in the past four games.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, December 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Houston - 8:25 PM ET Houston -3 500 *****

Jacksonville - Over 42.5 500 *****

[Kaptain]

like the Houston call Bum.........they score 5 pts a game more, and give up 2 less..............In 7 of those games lost by Houston, against some pretty damn good competition, they never got blown out, and were in good position to win 5 of em..............at the same time, the JAGS were getting blown out by lesser teams.......HOUSTON just better than the JAGS IMO

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Total Talk - Week 14

December 7, 2013

Week 13 Recap

Even though the ‘over’ went 3-0 on Thanksgiving, the ‘under’ managed to 9-7 in Week 13. Most of the results were clear-cut as four games finished with combined totals of 60 or more and there were five games that had 40 or less. On the season, the ‘over’ still holds a 100-88-2 edge.

Final Stretch

As we enter the quarter of the season, let’s point out the best total looks this season.

Best Over – Denver (10-2), St. Louis (9-3), Houston (9-4)
Notes – The Broncos and Texans play in Week 15

Best Under – Carolina (8-3-1), Kansas City (8-4), New Orleans (8-4)
Notes – The Saints is the biggest surprise here

Best Home Over – Houston (6-1), Denver (5-1), St. Louis (5-1), Tennessee (5-1), Detroit (5-1)
Notes – Three of the five teams play indoors

Best Home Under – Carolina (5-1), Philadelphia (5-1), Baltimore (5-1)
Notes – The Ravens should be 6-0 to the ‘under’ at home if it wasn’t for the late second-half in last Thursday’s game against the Steelers

Best Road Over – Philadelphia (5-1), Denver (5-1)
Notes – The Eagles play at Minnesota in Week 15 and finish the season at Dallas in Week 17

Best Road Under – New Orleans (5-1), Kansas City (4-1)
Notes – The Saints are averaging 18.3 points per game on the road, compared to 33.2 PPG at the Superdome

Non-Conference Overs

Another 2-0 record last week, pushed this number up to 42-13 (76%) on the season. We have four more non-conference (AFC vs. NFC) matchups on tap this Sunday. Will this be the week that this trend finally tempers? On paper, you can certainly make your case for some ‘under’ looks.

Kansas City at Washington
Minnesota at Baltimore
Buffalo at Tampa Bay
N.Y. Giants at San Diego

Line Moves

Minnesota at Baltimore: Line opened 43 and dropped to 41
Cleveland at New England: Line opened 45 and jumped to 47 ½
Atlanta at Green Bay: Line opened 47 and dropped to 45
Buffalo at Tampa Bay: Line opened 43 and dropped to 41 ½
N.Y. Giants at San Diego: Line opened 45 and jumped to 47
Carolina at New Orleans: Line opened 44 ½ and jumped to 46 ½

Total System Play

If you bet regularly or weekly and you frequent sites like VegasInsider.com, then I’m sure you stumbled across other sports betting information sites that have forums or message boards. A lot of users stay away from them but there are a couple reputable ones out there and even though some of the banter turns personal (why I don’t know), you can really grab some great information that can help your handicapping. You can also see a lot of people with too much free time and get a good chuckle.

With all of the above being said, I came across a great total angle many years ago and I always bring it up each season. Honestly, I forgot where I saw it or who came up with it but it’s a really good look and it comes into play this Sunday.

Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the Road

In 2011, this system went 4-3 (57%) but last year it went 2-0 with the Green Bay-St. Louis (Week 7) and Houston-New England (Week 14) cashing tickets. Including those results, the ‘over’ has gone 33-15-2 (69%) over the past nine seasons.

This particular angle came up earlier this season in Week 6 and I completely overlooked it. Sure enough, Philadelphia beat Tampa Bay 31-20 and the combined 51 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 45. It was the third straight road game for the Eagles.

The matchup that fits the above this week is the Tennessee-Denver matchup.

If this game goes ‘over’ then you’re looking at a 35-15-2 mark the past 10 seasons. You should keep this angle handy for future seasons and the playoffs too, because some of the Wild Card teams could fit this system if they play Week 17 on the road and win in the first round. Then the look would be the ‘over’ in the Divisional Playoff round, if played away from home.

Under the Lights

As we reach the final quarter of the season, let’s bring you up to speed with the O/U records in the primetime games this season.

Thursday: 10-4
Sunday: 8-5
Monday: 6-8

Overall, the ‘over’ has gone 24-17 (58%) in primetime affairs this season and the majority of those shootouts have occurred on Thursday and Sunday. Make a note that five of the six games on MNF went ‘over’ this season but the ‘under’ is on a 7-1 run the past eight weeks.

Carolina at New Orleans: The last four games between these teams have been shootouts and the ‘over’ has cashed in all four rather easily too. The Panthers swept the season series last year, winning 35-27 at home and 44-38 in the Superdome. As mentioned above, New Orleans is averaging 33.2 PPG at home this season. The total has also been pushed up by the betting public and will probably closer higher considering it's the last game to press. While most are expecting another high-scoring affair, you have more arguments for the ‘under’ in this spot. Carolina (13.1 PPG) leads the league in scoring defense and the Saints (19.2 PPG) are ranked sixth. Also, the Panthers (8-3-1) and Saints (8-4) have both leaned to the ‘under’ this season. Due to the MNF fiasco in Seattle, it’s been a short week for New Orleans, which usually helps the defensive units.

Dallas at Chicago: This appears to be a must-win spot for both clubs since they’re both fighting for playoff spots. Considering the stakes, I would expect a tight game from both coaches with neither hoping to make mistakes. Plus, the weather is expected to drop below 20 degrees for this contest with winds nearing 10-15 miles per hour. The Bears have watched the ‘over’ go 8-4 at home this season but the ‘under’ is 3-0 in their last three games when the total is listed at 49 or higher. This week’s number is just below (48) and I believe that’s too high. Dallas hasn’t shown any consistent offensive numbers on the road (20.8 PPG) this season outside of its 30-point performance against Detroit on Oct. 27.

Fearless Predictions

We lost 20 cents ($20) in Week 13 after picking up $190 on the holiday and losing $210 over the weekend. Overall, the bankroll is barely in the black ($70). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tennessee-Denver 49 ½
Best Under: Buffalo-Tampa Bay 41 ½
Best Team Total: Over Tennessee 17 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 40 ½ Tennessee-Denver
Under 59 Chicago-Dallas
Under 50 Minnesota-Baltimore

[StarDust Bum]

Sharp Moves - Week 14

December 6, 2013


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others.

Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 14!

All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com as of Friday morning.

(Rotation #132) Washington +3 – No team is sharper than this. Most assume that the 9-3 Chiefs are going to be able to go on the road and take care of business against the 3-9 Redskins. It might be a good assumption, but it certainly isn't a safe one. Kansas City has dropped three games in a row, and its defensive numbers have been staggeringly bad. Remember, these Chiefs are still only a year removed from going 2-14, and they probably aren't nearly as good as 9-3 suggests they are, even after becoming the first team in NFL history to start 9-0 and then lose three straight games. There's a reason this line hasn't moved at all even with the insane quantity of bets coming in on KC.

Opening Line: Washington +3
Current Line: Washington +3
Public Betting Percentage: 81% on Kansas City

(Rotation #147) Buffalo +2.5 – It's not the sharpest play on the board in the world, but there are definitely some big hitters coming in on Buffalo this week. The Bills probably have the better of these two teams, knowing that they would have a much better record had they had QB EJ Manuel for the full season. Tampa Bay has played better ball in the third quarter of the season than it did in the first two quarters, but that doesn't mean it is justified to be favored against much of anyone right now. The fact that this one has never gotten up to a full field goal tells us that the oddsmakers are begging you to bet on the Bucs.

Opening Line: Buffalo +2.5
Current Line: Buffalo +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 63% on Tampa Bay

(Rotation #149) Tennessee +12 – When you get up into these numbers beyond 10.5, it doesn't take a heck of a lot to swing the pendulum from 11 to 13. It's almost like four, five, and six in the lower numbers. The fact that the Broncos are garnering 70% of the betting action and haven't moved from this 12 number (and in some cases, have actually come down from 12.5) tells us that there are some big bets backing the Titans. From a football standpoint, it really makes some sense when you think about it. The Titans have a gritty defense, and they can run the football. Denver is coming off of the high of playing against KC, New England, and KC again. A letdown could be in order.

Opening Line: Tennessee +12
Current Line: Tennessee +12
Public Betting Percentage: 70% on Denver

(Rotation #141) Carolina +3 – The Panthers are definitely a nice team to look at this weekend, especially if you believe in the power of the sharp play. The Saints are coming off of a short week of preparation and a long flight from Seattle; there's no way they practiced before Wednesday this week. Carolina has been on fire, and though most assume it is the worse of these two teams, we don't think so. There's a reason that the Panthers swept this series last season both SU and ATS.

Opening Line: Carolina +3.5
Current Line: Carolina +3
Public Betting Percentage: 60% on New Orleans

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Sunday's NFC Showdowns

December 6, 2013


Detroit Lions (7-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-5)
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Philadelphia -2.5, Total: 54

Two teams atop their respective divisions play a crucial game Sunday when the Lions visit the red-hot Eagles.

Detroit holds a one-game lead over Chicago after destroying the Packers 40-10 on Thanksgiving, racking up 561 total yards despite committing four turnovers. Philadelphia is tied for first in the NFC East after four straight wins (3-1 ATS) thanks to 31.0 PPG and just one giveaway during the surge.

Eagles QB Nick Foles leads the NFL in passer rating (125.2) with 19 TD and 0 INT, but did not play in last year’s 26-23 OT loss to Detroit, when the Lions erased a 23-13, fourth-quarter deficit to snap a six-game series losing skid.

Both clubs have several negative betting trends this week. Since the 2011 season, Detroit has an 0-7 ATS mark after a double-digit win, and a 2-12 ATS record after scoring 30+ points in its previous game. Philadelphia is 1-12 ATS at home in the past two seasons, and 0-10 ATS at home after an ATS loss since the start of 2011.

Detroit continues to be the most pass-happy offense in the NFL with QB Matthew Stafford attempting a league-high 500 passes (41.7 per game) this season. Although his completion percentage is just 59.2% (27th in NFL) and he's thrown 14 interceptions (T-5th in league), Stafford ranks second in the NFL in passing yards (3,825) and third in passing touchdowns (27). Nearly half of those scores have gone to star WR Calvin Johnson who leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns (12) and receiving yards (1,299). Stafford scored two touchdowns (one passing, rushing) in last year's win at Philly, with 135 of his 311 passing yards going to Johnson.

This season, the Lions rank second in the league in total offense (425 YPG) and fourth in scoring (27.2 PPG) thanks to an excellent red zone efficient rate (62% touchdowns, 5th in NFL).

The ground game has been much improved this year too, going from 101 YPG (23rd in NFL) last year to 115 YPG (15th in league) this season. RB Reggie Bush is enjoying a fine first season in Detroit with 854 rushing yards (4.7 YPC), 448 receiving yards and 5 TD. If Bush is limited because of a lingering calf injury, backup RB Joique Bell is certainly capable of carrying the heavy workload, as he rumbled for 94 yards on 19 carries (4.9 YPC) and a touchdown in last week's win.

Defensively, the Lions rank 15th in total defense (345 YPG) and 18th in scoring defense (23.9 PPG), specializing in run defense with 83 YPG allowed (3rd in NFL) on 3.7 YPC (4th in league). Although their passing defense has been weak (262 YPG, 26th in NFL), they lead the league in third-down conversions (31%) and rank third in both time of possession (27:47) and red zone efficiency (39%). Creating turnovers has been a problem though, with just four takeaways in the past six games, with three of those coming last week. Considering how well Eagles QB Nick Foles is protecting the football, this should be a high-scoring affair.

Foles has not thrown a pick in 196 pass attempts, completing 63.3% of his throws for 1,791 yards (9.1 YPA) and 13 of his 19 touchdown tosses coming in the past four games. WR DeSean Jackson (1,021 rec. yards, 7 TD) has been his go-to receiver, but WR Riley Cooper (640 rec. yards, 7 TD) is also having a strong season, with five scores over the past four weeks.

While he has made the Eagles a very good passing offense (257 YPG, 9th in NFL), the ground game really makes this offense click, rolling up 147 rushing YPG (2nd in league) on 4.8 YPC (3rd in NFL). RB LeSean McCoy has rushed for 1,088 yards (2nd in NFL) on 4.7 YPC and six scores, while also gaining 435 yards through the air on 11.2 yards per reception, which leads all NFL running backs. But McCoy was held to a mere 22 yards on 14 carries in last year's loss to Detroit.

The Eagles defense has struggled all season, allowing the second-most yards in the NFL (412 YPG) and the second-most first downs per game (24.1). A lot of this has to do with a league-worst time of possession (34:23), which is also a product of a poor third down defense (40%, 26th in league). But the Eagles have a respectable scoring defense (23.4 PPG, 16th in NFL) because they do a great job in creating mistakes, tallying multiple takeaways in eight games this year, including four in a row. This recent +8 turnover margin is a big reason the team has won four straight contests.

Seattle Seahawks (11-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: San Francisco -2.5, Total: 41.5

The red-hot Seahawks will put their seven-game win streak on the line when they visit the rival 49ers on Sunday.

Seattle put a 34-7 hurting on the Saints Monday, and has now beaten its past three opponents by a combined 108 to 37 score. San Francisco also has back-to-back, double-digit wins, albeit against the Redskins and Rams.

When these NFC West foes met in Week 2, the Seahawks won a 29-3 laugher, as RB Marshawn Lynch scored three total touchdowns and the defense held the Niners to 207 total yards while forcing five turnovers. But Seattle has dropped four straight (1-3 ATS) at Candlestick Park, scoring a meager six points with 251 total yards in the most recent visit in 2011.

The Seahawks have plenty of favorable betting trends, including a 13-1 ATS mark (93%) in the past two seasons after gaining 6+ yards per play in their previous game, and a 17-4 ATS record (81%) after playing a home game since 2011.

The Niners also have several betting trends backing them, including their 23-9 ATS record (72%) in games played on a grass field since 2011, and their 14-4 ATS mark (78%) versus good offenses (350+ YPG) in this same timeframe.

Seattle will still be missing two great cornerbacks in Walter Thurmond (suspension) and Brandon Browner (groin), and WR Percy Harvin (hip) is doubtful to play. San Francisco's main injury concerns are OT Joe Staley (knee), who is doubtful for Sunday, and CB Tarell Brown, who is questionable for this matchup due to injured ribs.

Seattle's offense has been pretty strong this season with 28.3 PPG (2nd in NFL) and 5.9 yards per play (8th in league). The rushing offense has racked up 146 YPG (3rd in NFL), and the ability to run the football with RB Marshawn Lynch (970 rush yards, 4.3 YPC, 11 TD) is a big reason why the team has converted 60% of its red-zone chances into touchdowns (7th-best efficiency in league). The Seahawks have also been able to sustain long drives, ranking ninth in the NFL on third downs (41%). Lynch has always played well against what has historically been a stout 49ers defense, rushing for 615 yards (4.6 YPC) and 6 TD in seven meetings against them.

But if he can't find running room, Seattle has no problem allowing QB Russell Wilson (2,672 pass yards, 8.8 YPA, 22 TD, 6 INT) to lead the offense through the air. Wilson wasn’t very effective in his lone career visit to San Francisco, going 9-for-23 for 122 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT, but in the past two meetings, he has improved greatly with a 58% completion rate, 313 passing yards (7.8 YPA), 5 TD and 2 INT. Wilson is also on an impressive run over the past six weeks with multiple touchdown passes in each game, totaling 1,418 passing yards (9.7 YPA), 14 TD and just 2 INT. He has done this by spreading the wealth among his multitude of pass catchers, as four different receivers are tied for the team lead with four receiving touchdowns (TE Zach Miller and WRs Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse).

Defensively, this unit remains one of the strongest in the NFL, leading the league in total defense (285 YPG) and passing defense (177 YPG), while ranking second in scoring defense (15.5 PPG allowed). They have stood tall in the red zone by allowing a 41% TD conversion rate (4th in NFL), but they have been only average in stopping the run, ranking 15th in the league with 4.1 YPC allowed. Seattle forced five San Francisco turnovers in the Week 2 meeting, and has totaled 23 takeaways this season.

The 49ers' offense has been wildly inconsistent all year, scoring a solid 24.8 PPG (10th in NFL), but gaining a paltry 311 YPG (28th in league). The running game has been pretty strong all year with 131 YPG (7th in NFL), but the passing game ranks second-to-last in the league with 180 YPG.

QB Colin Kaepernick has had a down year, dropping from a 98.3 passer rating last season to 88.9 this year. He has completed 57.8% of his passes for 2,312 yards (7.6 YPA), 15 TD and 7 INT, but has absorbed 30 sacks, which is nearly doubled from the 16 sacks he suffered in 13 games last year. In his two career meetings in this series (both at Seattle), Kaepernick has gone 32-of-64 for 371 yards (5.8 YPA), 1 TD and 4 INT.

But all is not hopeless, as top WR Michael Crabtree is finally set for a full snap count for the first time all year. Crabtree gained 1,105 yards through the air with 9 TD last year, but tore his Achilles in the offseason. Kaepernick has also leaned heavily on TE Vernon Davis (705 rec. yards, 10 TD), allowing him to score a touchdown in eight of his 11 games this season, including three in a row. Davis leads all NFL tight ends with 16.8 yards per reception.

Veteran RB Frank Gore (821 rush yards, 4.0 YPC, 8 TD) has enjoyed another fine season, but has appeared to hit the wall in his past three contests with only 121 yards on 41 carries (3.0 YPC). However, in 15 career games versus Seattle, Gore has totaled 1,690 yards from scrimmage (113 YPG) and five touchdowns.

The San Francisco defense has carried this team for most of the season, ranking third in the NFL in scoring defense (16.4 PPG) and fifth in total defense (312 YPG). The Niners have been fierce on third downs (34%, 6th in NFL), but are only average in the red zone (53% efficiency, 14th in NFL). They also have nine straight games with at least one forced turnover, totaling 20 takeaways during this stretch.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 14

December 7, 2013


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 10-0 ATS (9.75 ppg) since Dec 14, 2008 within 3 of pick when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Eagles are 0-13 ATS (-10.50 ppg) since Nov 28, 2010 as a favorite after playing as a home favorite.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Matt Stafford is 11-0-1 OU (12.7 ppg) since December 2009 as between a four-point favorite and six-point dogs after a game where he threw no more than 35 passes.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Titans are 0-11 ATS (-15.1 ppg) since 2004 facing a team which averages over 8 yards per passing attempt put less than 5 yards per rushing attempt.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams which had a rush of over 70 yards last game are 44- 61-3 OU. Active on Buffalo.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Dolphins are 0-10 OU (-8.85 ppg) since Dec 12, 2010 on the road when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last two games.

PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:

The Minnesota Vikings squandered a 13-point fourth quarter lead at Green Bay in Week 12 and then after playing an entire fifth ‘quarter’ settled for a rare tie. Last week at home it was the Vikings storming back from a double-digit deficit in the fourth to force overtime against the Bears and then after two missed field goals, Minnesota eventually won 23-20. It was the team’s 16th fourth quarter comeback in the past eight years at home and history shows the Vikes are just 5-11 SU and 4-12 ATS fol-lowing the late dramatics since 1996 (1-9 ATS on the road).

Adrian Peterson rushed for 211 yards against the Bears but he’ll face a much tougher test in Baltimore this Sunday. The Bears defense ranks last in the league against the run (154 RYPG allowed) while the Ravens have climbed to sixth (100 RYPG allowed). AP (groin) has been limited in practice this week and the Vikes are now heading outdoors to face a Ravens team with their sights set on the playoffs. With extra rest off that Thanksgiving win over Pittsburgh we can expect John Harbaugh to have his team ready and the line on this game has dropped to Ravens -6.5 at several outlets during the past few days. Our money is on the favorite.

Pick: Take the Ravens

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 14

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 14:

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (+3, 44.5)

Andy Reid’s NFC East knowledge vs. Ruined Redskins

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid knows more about the NFC East than most outside the division, having waddled the sidelines in Philadelphia for 13 seasons. That inside info has shown in the Chiefs record versus NFC East teams this season, with Kansas City going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS against Dallas, New York and Philadelphia.

Washington has fallen far from the class of the NFC East in just one season, lugging a 3-9 record into Week 14. Quarterback Robert Griffin III is no longer a dual-threat dynamo, having been put on a short leash as a pocket passer to protect his wonky knees. The Redskins have done a terrible job protecting him and have allowed RG3 to be sacked 15 times in the past three games - all loses SU and ATS. The Chiefs pass rush isn’t as potent as earlier in the season but still has teeth, especially with Reid exploiting Washington’s weakness.


Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-2.5, 40)

Raiders’ fast starts vs. Jets’ failure to launch

The Raiders don’t waste any time finding the end zone. Oakland ranks second in the NFL in first-quarter scoring – 7.2 points per opening frame – and sits eighth in the league in first-half points, averaging 13.1 points through the first two quarters. The Raiders have outscored opponents 86-41 in the first 15 minutes before suffering a power outage following halftime.

If Oakland gets out to another strong start versus the Jets, a poor second half may not matter. New York has dropped three in a row, scoring a combined 18 points in those games. A QB shuffle hasn’t helped the offense at all, and Gang Green could finally be giving up on head coach Rex Ryan. New York averages just 2.6 points per first quarter – worst in the NFL – and has mustered only three total first-half points during this losing skid.


St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 41.5)

Rams’ pass rush vs. Cardinals’ QB Carson Palmer

The high point in a low season for the Rams has been the play of their front four. St. Louis has been able to bring a dominant pass rush with just its defensive linemen, especially DE Robert Quinn who is second in the NFL with 13 sacks. Quinn has three sacks on Arizona QB Carson Palmer in Week 1, helping the Rams edge the Cardinals 27-24 as 3-point home underdogs. On the season, St. Louis has 37 sacks – tied for fifth in the league.

Palmer doesn’t respond well to pressure. The aging passer runs like he’s stuck in mud and has a bad habit of relieving that pressure by throwing away interceptions. Palmer was sacked five times and threw two INTs in the loss to Philadelphia last weekend and has been crushed 11 times in the past three games. To make matters worse, RB Andre Ellington is out of action, taking away one of Palmer’s favorite check downs when things get hot.


Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 45.5)

Panthers’ time of possession vs. Saints’ Superdome offense

The Seahawks may have laid the blueprint for locking down the Saints during last Monday’s squash, but Carolina coach Ron Rivera may not even look to his defense to slow down Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense Sunday night. The Panthers offense can do that. Carolina tops the league in time of possession, chewing up more than 33 minutes per game, and has limited opponents to an average of 58.7 plays per game – fewest in the NFL.

New Orleans defense is improved but the backbone of the Big Easy is Brees and that potent pass game. The Saints sit second in time of possession this season - 32:30 – but held on to the football for only 26:22 in the loss to Seattle. Opponents have been trying to kill the clock in recent meetings with New Orleans, limiting it to an average of only 29:05 TOP and just over two touchdowns in the Saints last three games. New Orleans is 0-3 ATS in the span.

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NFL Betting Week 14 Preview: Hot bets and moving odds

All odds current as of noon ET, Dec. 5.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a perfect example of how quickly things can change in the NFL. After they were hammered in Week 8 by the San Francisco 49ers you could still find odds on whether they were going to 0-16 as they went into their bye.

Now, they’re riding a three-game winning streak and have jumped out of the AFC South basement and past the Houston Texans, who they’ll host in tonight’s Thursday Night Football game. It’s turning into a tricky game to handicap. The Jaguars may be on a bit of a roll, but they haven’t won a home game all season. Meanwhile, Houston just keeps finding new ways to lose every week, but they hung around with the Patriots and scored 30 points for the first time since the second game of the season.

The Jags opened as 2.5-point underdogs but have since moved to 3.5-point pups as about 64 percent of Sports Interaction’s action comes in on the Texans. This might be a game in which we’ll see a wave of home-team support as the kick nears, so keep a close eye on this line.

Other odds on the move

With cold weather settling in, totals in Denver Broncos games are dropping with the temperature. This week the Tennessee at Denver over/under opened at 50.5 but now sits at 48.5. Denver has over bettors cashing at a 7-4-1 clip so far this season.

The Cincinnati Bengals have won two straight and are unbeaten at home as they get set to host the Indianapolis Colts this week. The Bengals opened as 5.5-poing favorites and are now listed at -6 while the total has dipped from 44.5 to 43.5.

Confidence in New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith is approaching the Mark Sanchez level, so it’s no shocker to see the Jets move from 2.5-point favorites at the open to -1.5 now. The Jets have dropped three in a row straight up and against the spread.

This week’s most popular bet

The Kansas City Chiefs have dropped four of their last five against the number, but face a Washington club that has lost four straight, failing to cover in each. Bettors are going with the lesser of two evils in a big way. Right now, 94 percent of Sports Interaction’s wagers are coming in on Kansas City.

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Raiders (4-8) @ Jets (5-7)—Jets are first team since ’08 Browns to score 3 or less points in consecutive games, with 15 3/outs on 24 drives in last two games; they’re 0-3 since their bye, losing by 23-16-20 points, yet they stick with overmatched rookie QB Smith, who was yanked for Simms (non-starter for bad college team) in second half last week. In their seven losses, Jets are -19 (2-21) in turnovers; they’re +1 (6-5) in five wins. Oakland is on road for 4th time in last five weeks; they’ve lost four of last five games, with only win at 2-10 Houston. Raiders have only six takeaways in last five games, but are 4-2 as road underdogs, covering last three away games- they averaged over 8 yards/pass attempt in last two games, a good sign. Home side won seven of last nine series games; Raiders lost last three games with Jets here, but haven’t been here since ’06- their last win over Jets here was in ’96. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 5-3 vs spread, 4-2 at home; AFC West underdogs are 9-4 vs spread, 6-1 on road. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Oakland games, 7-3 in last ten Jet games.

Chiefs (9-3) @ Redskins (3-9)—Chiefs lost last three games after 9-0 start, but two of those were vs Broncos; they were outscored 52-31 in second half of last two games, as injury problems on DL mount, but what better team to face now than sliding Redskins, who lost last four games and are coming off of pair of primetime losses. KC is 4-1 on road, allowing 17 or less points in the four wins- they’re 5-4 as favorites this year, 3-0 on road. Washington was up 14-0 early vs Giants Sunday and still lost, as reports of unrest between QB/coach spread; Redskins have two TDs, three FGs on last seven red zone drives and only three takeaways (-1) in last four games. Skins are 2-4 at home, with wins 45-41/30-24 OT; their last eight losses are all by 7+ points. Chiefs won last five games in seldom-played series; last time they lost to Washington was thirty years ago- they’re 3-1 in last four visits here. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 10-9 vs spread, 5-4 on road; NFC East underdogs are 5-7, 1-2 at home. Last three Redskin games and four of five KC road games stayed under the total.

Vikings (3-8-1) @ Ravens (6-6)—Minnesota played deep into OT last two weeks, going 1-0-1 after 2-8 start; they’ve covered four of last five games, beating Bears last week with Cassel playing most of game- its amazing they paid Josh Freeman $2M to play one dismal Monday night game, and he hasn’t appeared since. Minnesota ran ball for 232/246 yards last two weeks, as Peterson appears healed from his injury- they’ve still allowed 26+ points in 10 of 12 games. Only once in last five Raven games has their opponent rushed for more than 104 yards, and that was an overtime game. Eight of last nine Baltimore games were decided by 6 or less points, or in OT; Ravens won three of last four, are 5-1 vs spread at home, 3-1 when favored. Home team won last three series games; Vikings lost last two games here 19-3/30-23, as home side won last three series games. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 3-7 vs spread, 2-6 on road; AFC North home favorites are 5-3. 10 of 12 Minnesota games went over the total; five of six Baltimore home games stayed under.

Browns (4-8) @ Patriots (9-3)—Belichick was once fired by Browns, but it was old Brown franchise who are now the Ravens; Patriots are 5-2 vs new Browns, with home side winning five of last six meetings. Cleveland lost its three visits here, by 11-6-17 points. Browns’ WR Josh Gordon has run amuck last two games, catching xx passes for 4xx yards, and that is with suspect Weeden at QB; Cleveland is 0-5 in his starts this year, with three losses by 14+ points. Browns lost last three games, were favored in last two; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 8-18-6-21 points, with win at Minnesota when Hoyer was QB. Patriots won last two games 34-31, rallying from down 10 at half last week in Houston; they’ve covered last five home games, are 4-1 as home favorites, winning in Foxboro by 3-20-3-10-24-3 points. In last three games, Patriot opponents are 22 of last 40 (55%) on third down. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 8-5-2, 4-2 at home. Over is 5-2 in last seven games for both teams.

Colts (8-4) @ Bengals (8-4)—Both sides appear headed to division title, but Cincy still has games left with Steelers/Ravens, so they’ve got more urgency than Indy squad that has basically sewed up division title. Bengals have revenge game with Steelers next week; they’re 4-0 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 10-4-7-40-21 points. Colts won seven of last eight games in what would be regional rivalry if teams played in same division; they’re 8-3 at Cincy, winning last three visits since ’96. Indy had four takeaways (+3) last week after having total of two in last four games- they’re 4-2 SU on road this year, 3-1 vs spread as road dogs. Bengals outscored last five opponents in second half by combined total of 75-28. In last four games, Indy allowed TD drives of 82-64-80 on first drive of second half. Colts scored 11 or less points in three of their four losses. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-3 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 6-5-1. Five of last six Indy games went over total; three of last four Bengal games stayed under.

Panthers (9-3) @ Saints (9-3)—Evidence is clear; Saints are way better at home, scoring 33 ppg while going 5-0-1 as home favorite, with wins by 6-24-21-18-32-3 points- they’re coming off dismal effort in Seattle Monday night- NO scores only 18.8 ppg on road. Carolina won/covered its last eight games, with Patriots (24-20) only team in streak to score more than 16 points; Panthers are 3-1 as an underdog this year, with only non-cover 12-7 (+3.5) at home vs Seattle in season opener. Last three games, Carolina drove ball on first drive of second half for TDs of 81-83-78 yards, so sound halftime adjustments are being made. Panthers swept Saints LY when Payton wasn’t coaching- they lost last four games to Payton, are 1-3 in last four visits to Superdome, losing by 10-2-28 points. Carolina defense allowed only seven offensive TDs on its last 82 drives. NFC South home teams are 7-1 vs spread in divisional games this year, 5-0 when favored. Last four Carolina games stayed under the total; four of last six Saint games also stayed under. Teams meet again in two weeks in Charlotte.

Lions (7-5) @ Eagles (7-5)—Philly won last four games, scoring 31 ppg, as Foles establishes himself as an elite QB; Eagles have only one turnover (+8) in last four games, winning last two at Linc after breaking 0-12 spread skid at home (they’re still 1-13 ATS in last 14 at home). Detroit has 17 turnovers (-13) in its last five games, as they continuously shoot themselves in foot; Lions are 3-3 SU on road, but were favored in four of six games. Iggles won six of last seven series games, with average total in last four, 59.0. Lions lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 21-7-1-35 points. NFC North non-divisional road teams are 4-10 vs spread; NFC East home teams are 6-9. Five of last seven Detroit games went over the total; five of last six Philly games stayed under. You’d think Lions have edge with 10-day break after Thanksgiving game, but they’ve lost post-Turkey game last five years, so not so much. There was speculation from couple Michigan guys on radio Monday night that Schwartz is gone if Lions miss playoffs, with Nick Saban a possible successor.

Dolphins (6-6) @ Steelers (5-7)—Miami is 5-1 when it allows 20 or less points, 1-5 when it allows more; they’re 3-3 on road, 3-2 as road dogs. Dolphins lost last five games in this series, with last three by six or less points; they’ve lost last three visits here, by 3-11-3 points. 20 years ago, Joe Philbin was OL coach at a D-III school an hour north of Pittsburgh that won national title; his WR coach O’Keefe was head coach of that team, so Fish figure to have some support here, but with Steelers winning three of last four games (4-0 vs spread) to get back into contention, not much support. Pitt started season 0-4, has rallied behind great QB Roethlisberger, who was sacked once in last three games, after being dumped 36 times in first nine games. Steelers haven’t turned ball over in last three games, are +7 in turnovers in last four. Miami has been terrible in red zone in last two games, scoring 12 points on five drives inside opponents’ 20. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 2-9 against the spread; AFC North home favorites are 5-3. Under is 5-0-1 in Dolphins’ last six games.

Bills (4-8) @ Bucs (3-9)—Over last seven games, on first drive of second half by both teams, Buffalo has been outscored 41-0, including offense giving up TD, so staff that was mostly in college LY is getting outwitted at halftime. Bills lost four of last five games, losing OT game in Toronto to Falcons last week when they led by 10 early on. Buffalo is 1-4 SU/ATS on road, with losses by 7-13-18-13 points. Tampa Bay had 3-game win streak stopped cold in Charloitte last week; Bucs are 2-4 SU this year in game with spread of 3 or less- they’re 1-2 as a favorite and beat Miami/Atlanta in last two home games. Bills allowed 140.3 rushing yards per game over their last three games. Tampa won six of nine series games, with eight of the nine played here; Bills haven’t visited here since a 19-3 loss in ’05. Weird slate of games this weekend, with only four divisional games, and four interconference games. AFC East road underdogs are 2-9 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 7-2-1. Over is 6-2 in last eight Buffalo games, 5-2-1 in last eight Tampa games.

Titans (5-7) @ Broncos (10-2)—Denver gets coach Fox back on sidelines after KC/NE/KC stretch that finds Broncos in first place, with last four games vs teams all with sub-.500 records. Denver is 5-1 as home favorites, with only non-cover when they laid 26 to Jags; they’ve won home games by 22-16-32-16-24-10 points. Titans lost six of last eight games, falling 22-14 in Indy last week despite giving up only one TD, but also five FGs; they’re 5-1 vs spread on road, 3-1 as road dog, losing away games by 6-7-8 points, with wins by Pitt/Rams/Oakland. In last five games, Titans converted 39 of 74 on 3rd down- they’ve run ball for 134.7 ypg in last three games. Denver won five of last seven series games; Titans lost last four visits here-- when he was with Colts, Manning won 13 of his last 16 games vs division rival Titans. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; AFC West favorites are 10-9, 5-5 at home. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Tennessee games, 10-2 in Bronco games. Is lack of practice hurting #18? Denver scored first drive TD in five of first nine games, but none in last three.

Rams (5-7) @ Cardinals (7-5)—Arizona (+4.5) lost 27-24 in season opener at St Louis, but lot has changed for them since; Redbirds won four of last five games (4-0-1 vs spread) are 2-0-1 as home favorites this year, winning at home by 4-16-14-3-29 points- their only loss in six home games was to Seattle. Opponents are 12 for last 43 on 3rd down against Arizona. Rams are 2-3 in Clemens’ starts, 1-1 on road; they scored two defensive TDs and a special teams TD in the two wins- St Louis is 2-4 as a road underdog this year, losing road games by 7-24-15-10 points, with upset wins at Texans/Colts. St Louis won last three series games, after losing 10 of previous 11; they’ve won two of last three visits to desert. In their last three games, on first drive of each half, Cardinals have four TDs and FG on six drives; Fitzgerald has looked sharper in last two games. This is only 5th time in 13 games Arizona has been favored this season. NFC West home favorites are 3-0 vs spread in divisional games this season. Over is 7-2 in last nine Ram games, 5-2 in last seven Arizona tilts.

Giants (5-7) @ Chargers (5-7)—San Diego drafted Eli Manning, but his dad forced a trade, so Chargers wound up with Rivers, Steelers with Big Ben- fans tend to remember that stuff. Giants won five of last six games after an 0-6 start; they’re 2-2 as road underdogs, 2-4 SU on road, with wins vs division rivals Eagles/Redskins. In their last seven games, Giants allowed 33 (4.7) second half points; they allowed 113 (22.6) in first five. Chargers are 1-4 since their bye, with only win 41-38 at Chiefs; Bolts are 2-3 at home- they’re 2-4 in games where spread is 3 or less points, Giants are 3-3. Big Blue is just 11 for last 38 on 3rd down in last three games; slowish TE Meyers seems to be pass catcher Manning trusts most in big spot. San Diego has only 12 takeaways (-4) in 12 games; Giants are 4-1 when they have less than two turnovers. Chargers are 2-0 vs Eli, winning 45-23/21-20; Giants’ last win here was in ’98. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-5 vs spread; NFC East underdogs are 5-7, 4-5 on road. Four of last six Giant games, five of last seven San Diego games stayed under the total.

Seahawks (11-1) @ 49ers (8-4)—With Seattle winning Monday, they’ve virtually clinched home field thru NFC playoffs, making this much more important game for 49ers, who have one-game lead for last Wild Card spot. Home side won eight of last nine series games, with series split four of last five years; Seahawks lost last four visits here, by average of 14 points, but they beat 49ers 29-3 (-3) at home in Week 2, outrushing SF 172-100 in game where neither QB completed half his passes, and neither team gained more than 240 yards. Niners are 8-0 when they average 6+ yards per pass attempt, 0-4 when they do not; they averaged 3.5 in loss at Seattle and turned it over five times. In their first three games, SF turned ball over seven times (-4); in nine games since, only 10 times (+10). Seattle won its last six games; their only loss was 34-28 in Week 5 at Indy, in game they led 12-0 early. 49ers scored 9 or less points in three of their four losses. NFC West divisional home favorites are 3-0 vs spread; NFL-wide, they’re 25-16-2. Last four 49er games stayed under the total.

Falcons (3-9) @ Packers (5-6-1)—Green Bay is 0-4-1 since Rodgers got hurt, rallying from down 23-7 to tie 3-8-1 Vikings, but Falcons snapped 5-game skid last week in Toronto, and a bad dome team playing on frozen tundra in December isn’t appealing. Atlanta is 0-3 outdoors this season, losing by 4-24-13 points; they’re 1-5 overall as a road dog this year, covering for first time last week. Over last six games, Falcons allowed average of 159.8 rushing yards/game, would expect Lacy to have big day if Flynn starts again and it looks like he will. Pack is obviously not same without Rodgers, scoring 13 or less points in three of last four games. Home team lost five of last six series games; Falcons won three of last four visits here, were first road team to win playoff game at Lambeau. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-8 vs spread, 5-5 on road. NFC North favorites are 4-10-2, 2-6-2 at home. Over is 8-3 in last 11 Atlanta games, 2-3 in Rodgers-less Packer games. Pack-Jets-Texans-Bucs are all favored this week, and they’re all horrible right now; ain’t handicapping fun?

Cowboys (7-5) @ Bears (6-6)—Dallas won last two games and five of last seven; with Week 11 bye and 10 days since last game, this is only their third game in last 28 days, so they should be rested, but this is another road team playing December game in possible bitter cold. Then again, Romo is from Wisconsin. You’d expect Dallas to be good with 10 days off after Thanksgiving game, but they’re 2-3 in last five post-Turkey games, 1-3 when on road. Cowboys are 2-3 this season in games with spread of 3 or less points, with two 1-point losses. Bears lost three of last four games, are 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine; they blew OT game in Minnesota last week, missing 46-yard FG in OT. Chicago is 4-2 at home, with underdogs 3-1-2 in those games- they’re 0-3-2 as home favorites this year, 3-6 in games with spread of 3 or less. Chicago won last two meetings 27-10/34-18, both in Dallas; this is Cowboys’ first visit to Windy City since ’07. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 7-8 vs spread; NFC North home teams are 3-7-2. Last five Dallas games and four of six Chicago home games went over the total.