The Bum's College Football + Bowl Games POD'S- Trends- Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, December 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington State - 2:00 PM ET Colorado State +5.5 500
Colorado State - Under 66 500 *****

Fresno State - 3:30 PM ET Fresno State +6 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Southern California - Under 64 500 *****

Buffalo - 5:30 PM ET Buffalo +2 500 DOUBLE PLAY
San Diego State - Over 49.5 500 *****

Tulane - 9:00 PM ET Tulane -2.5 500 *****
UL Lafayette - Over 48 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

2012-13 Bowl Betting Results

January 8, 2013



Bowl Conference Standings

Conference (Eligible Teams) Straight up Against the Spread

ACC (6) 4-2 4-2

Big East (5) 3-2 3-2

Big 10 (7) 2-4 3-3

Big 12 (9) 4-5 3-6

CUSA (5) 4-1 4-1

Independent (3) 1-2 1-2

Mid-American (7) 3-3 3-3

Mountain West (5) 1-4 1-4

Pac-12 (8) 4-4 4-4

SEC (9) 6-3 6-3

Sun Belt (4) 1-2 1-2

WAC (2) 2-0 2-0

Overall Game Results
Wager SU Win SU Loss ATS Win ATS Loss
Favorite 24 11 20 15
Underdog 11 24 15 20
Over Under
15 19


2012-13 Bowl Schedule - Results

Date Bowl Matchup Line, Total Score ATS

Saturday, Dec. 15 New Mexico Bowl Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Arizona Wildcats 8.5, 80 49-48 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 15 Idaho Potato Bowl Toledo Rockets vs. Utah State Aggies 10, 60 41-15 Favorite-Under

Thursday, Dec. 20 Poinsettia Bowl Brigham Young Cougars vs. San Diego State Aztecs 3, 46 23-6 Favorite-Under

Friday, Dec. 21 Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl Ball State Cardinals vs. Central Florida Golden Knights 7, 60 38-17 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Dec. 22 New Orleans Bowl East Carolina Pirates vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns 6.5, 70 43-34 Favorite-Over

Saturday, Dec. 22 MAACO Bowl Washington Huskies vs. Boise State Broncos 4, 44.5 28-26 Underdog-Over

Monday, Dec. 24 Hawaii Bowl Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Fresno State Bulldogs 13.5, 63 43-10 Underdog-Under

Wednesday, Dec. 26 Little Caesars Bowl Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 6, 56 24-21 Underdog-Under

Thursday, Dec. 27 Military Bowl Bowling Green State Falcons vs. San Jose State Spartans 7, 46 29-20 Favorite-Over

Thursday, Dec. 27 Belk Bowl Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Duke Blue Devils 9.5, 62.5 48-34 Favorite-Over

Thursday, Dec. 27 Holiday Bowl Baylor Bears vs. UCLA Bruins 3, 81.5 49-26 Underdog-Under

Friday, Dec. 28 Independence Bowl Ohio Bobcats vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 7, 59 45-14 Underdog-Push

Friday, Dec. 28 Russell Athletic Bowl Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Virginia Tech Hokies 1, 42 13-10 Favorite-Under

Friday, Dec. 28 Meineke Car Care Bowl Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders 13, 55 34-31 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 29 Armed Forces Bowl Air Force Falcons vs. Rice Owls 1, 61 33-14 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Dec. 29 Fight Hunger Bowl Navy Midshipmen vs. Arizona State Sun Devils 13, 55 62-28 Favorite-Over

Saturday, Dec. 29 Pinstripe Bowl West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Syracuse Orange 4, 70.5 38-14 Underdog-Under

Saturday, Dec. 29 Alamo Bowl Oregon State Beavers vs. Texas Longhorns 3, 57.5 31-27 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 29 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Texas Christian Horned Frogs vs. Michigan State Spartans 1.5, 40 17-16 Underdog-Under

Monday, Dec. 31 Music City Bowl North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Vanderbilt Commodores 7.5, 54 38-24 Favorite-Over

Monday, Dec. 31 Sun Bowl Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Southern California Trojans 7.5, 63 21-7 Underdog-Under

Monday, Dec. 31 Liberty Bowl Iowa State Cyclones vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 2, 51 31-17 Favorite-Under

Monday, Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A Bowl Clemson Tigers vs. Louisiana State Tigers 5.5, 58 25-24 Underdog-Under

Tuesday, Jan. 1 Heart of Dallas Bowl Purdue Boilermakers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys 17.5, 69 58-14 Favorite-Over

Tuesday, Jan. 1 Gator Bowl Northwestern Wildcats vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs 1.5, 55 34-20 Favorite-Under

Tuesday, Jan. 1 Capital One Bowl Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Georgia Bulldogs 9.5, 62.5 45-31 Favorite-Over

Tuesday, Jan. 1 Outback Bowl Michigan Wolverines vs. South Carolina Gamecocks 5.5, 47.5 33-28 Underdog-Over

Tuesday, Jan. 1 Rose Bowl Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinal 4.5, 47 20-14 Favorite-Under

Tuesday, Jan. 1 Orange Bowl Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Florida State Seminoles 14, 58.5 31-10 Favorite-Under

Wednesday, Jan. 2 Sugar Bowl Louisville Cardinals vs. Florida Gators 14.5, 47.5 33-21 Underdog-Over

Thursday, Jan. 3 Fiesta Bowl Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks 8, 74 35-17 Favorite-Under

Friday, Jan. 4 Cotton Bowl Texas A&M Aggies vs. Oklahoma Sooners 3, 72.5 41-13 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Jan. 5 BBVA Compass Bowl Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Mississippi Rebels 4, 54.5 38-17 Favorite-Over

Sunday, Jan. 6 GoDaddy.Com Bowl Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Kent State Golden Flashes 2.5, 64 17-13 Favorite-Under

Monday, Jan. 7 BCS Championship Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 9.5, 40 41-14 Favorite-Over

**Winner listed in Red

[StarDust Bum]

2013-14 Bowl Betting Results

December 23, 2013


Bowl Conference Standings

Conference Straight Up (SU) Against the Spread (ATS)

ACC - -

American (AAC) - -

Big 10 - -

Big 12 - -

CUSA 0-1 0-1

Independent 1-0 1-0

Mid-American 0-2 0-2

Mountain West 2-1 2-1

Pac-12 1-1 1-1

SEC - -

Sun Belt 1-0 1-0

WAC - -


Overall Game Results

Wager SU Win SU Loss ATS Win ATS Loss

Favorite 2 3 2 3

Underdog 3 2 3 2

Over Under
2 3


2013-14 Bowl Schedule - Results

Date Bowl Matchup Line, Total Score ATS

Saturday, Dec. 21 New Mexico Bowl Washington State vs. Colorado State +4, 64 ½ 48-45 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 21 Las Vegas Bowl Fresno State vs. USC -4 ½, 66 45-20 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Dec. 21 Idaho Potato Bowl Buffalo vs. San Diego State +1, 49 ½ 49-24 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 21 New Orleans Bowl Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette +1, 50 24-21 Underdog-Under

Monday, Dec. 23 Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl East Carolina vs. Ohio -14, 63 37-20 Favorite-Under

Tuesday, Dec. 24 Hawaii Bowl Boise State vs. Oregon State - - -

Thursday, Dec. 26 Little Caesars Bowl Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green - - -

Thursday, Dec. 26 Poinsettia Bowl Utah State vs. Northern Illinois - - -

Friday, Dec. 27 Military Bowl Marshall vs. Maryland - - -

Friday, Dec. 27 Texas Bowl Syracuse vs. Minnesota - - -

Friday, Dec. 27 Fight Hunger Bowl Brigham Young vs. Washington - - -

Saturday, Dec. 28 Pinstripe Bowl Rutgers vs. Notre Dame - - -

Saturday, Dec. 28 Belk Bowl Cincinnati vs. North Carolina - - -

Saturday, Dec. 28 Russell Athletic Bowl Miami, Fl. vs. Louisville - - -

Saturday, Dec. 28 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Michigan vs. Kansas State - - -

Monday, Dec. 30 Armed Forces Bowl Middle Tennessee vs. Navy - - -

Monday, Dec. 30 Music City Bowl Mississippi vs. Georgia Tech - - -

Monday, Dec. 30 Alamo Bowl Oregon vs. Texas - - -

Monday, Dec. 30 Holiday Bowl Arizona State vs. Texas Tech - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 31 Independence Bowl Arizona vs. Boston College - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 31 Sun Bowl Virginia Tech vs. UCLA - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 31 Liberty Bowl Rice vs. Mississippi State - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A Bowl Duke vs. Texas A&M - - -

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Gator Bowl Nebraska vs. Georgia - - -

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Heart of Dallas Bowl UNLV vs. North Texas - - -

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Capital One Bowl Wisconsin vs. South Carolina - - -

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Outback Bowl Iowa vs. LSU - - -

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Rose Bowl Stanford vs. Michigan State - - -

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Fiesta Bowl Central Florida vs. Baylor - - -

Thursday, Jan. 2 Sugar Bowl Oklahoma vs. Alabama - - -

Friday, Jan. 3 Cotton Bowl Oklahoma State vs. Missouri - - -

Friday, Jan. 3 Orange Bowl Clemson vs. Ohio State - - -

Saturday, Jan. 4 BBVA Compass Bowl Vanderbilt vs. Houston - - -

Sunday, Jan. 5 GoDaddy.Com Bowl Arkansas State vs. Ball State - - -

Monday, Jan. 6 BCS Championship Florida State vs. Auburn - - -

**Winner listed in Red

[StarDust Bum]

Hawaii Bowl

December 23, 2013


Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

Matchup: Oregon State vs. Boise State
Venue: Aloha Stadium
Location: Honolulu, HI
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

The handicap for this year’s Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu could be a tough one. For starters, Boise State is going through a coaching change.

And this isn’t just any coaching change. For eight seasons, Boise St. (8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) has been extremely fortunate to have one of the top coaches in all of college football.

While leading BSU to 92 wins in eight years, including a pair of BCS bowl-game victories, Chris Petersen turned down at least a dozen job offers at bigger schools in more marquee conferences.

Until a few weeks ago, every suitor had been denied by Petersen, who finally got the job offer to pull him away from the smurf turf. He is now the new head coach at the University of Washington, while linebackers coach Bob Gregory is the interim head coach for one game. BSU plucked former assistant and Arkansas St. head coach Bryan Harsin to replace Petersen on a permanent basis.

When these transitions occur, you have to question how a team will respond. Drama unfolded on the first night the Broncos got to town, as senior QB Joe Southwick was sent home for disciplinary reasons.

Back in Boise, Southwick has told the media that he was sent home for urinating off of a balcony. But he claims it was a different teammate that did so and, in hopes of clearing his name, Southwick is taking a lie-detector test.

Whatever the case, Southwick hasn’t played much since breaking his ankle in October so his absence isn’t that big of a deal. Grant Hedrick is playing well and it will be his game against Oregon State.

As of Monday afternoon, most betting shops had Oregon St. (6-6 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) installed as a three-point favorite with a total of 64. The money-line price for the Beavers is -150, while gamblers can bring home a +130 payout if the Broncos win outright (risk $100 to win $130).

For first-half wagers, OSU is favored by 1.5 with a total of 32.5.

After a shocking season-opening loss to Eastern Washington at home, Mike Riley’s team won six consecutive games. However, Oregon St. ended the regular season on a five-game losing streak.

The slump can be directly related to the play of junior QB Sean Mannion, who started the season by throwing for 30 touchdown passes compared to only three interceptions. Those were incredible numbers through eight games when the Beavers’ only defeats came against Eastern Washington and Stanford in nail-biters.

Since then, however, Mannion has been intercepted 11 times in four games. All that said, Oregon St. and Mannion played extremely well in the regular-season finale.

OSU went into Eugene and fought valiantly in an epic edition of the Civil War. After four lead changes in the fourth quarter, Oregon won a 36-35 decision thanks to Josh Huff’s 12-yard TD catch from Marcus Mariota with 29 ticks remaining.

But Oregon St. easily took the cash as a 24-point road underdog. The 71 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 69.5-point total thanks to 27 points scored in the final stanza.

Mannion threw for 314 yards and a pair of scores against the Ducks. He finished fourth in the nation in passing yards (4,404) and tied for third in the NCAA in TD passes (36).

Mannion’s favorite target is Brandin Cooks, who enjoyed another monster campaign. Cooks made 120 receptions for an NCAA-best 1,670 yards and 15 TDs.

Boise St. won’t reach a double-digit win total for the first time since 2005. The Broncos haven’t lost five games in a season since 1998, but they dropped four this year – at Washington (38-6), at Fresno St. (41-40), at BYU (37-20) and at San Diego St. (34-31 in overtime).

BSU beat only two bowl-bound teams with its victories at Colorado St. and at Utah St. Since becoming the starter in October, Hedrick has produced a 15/5 TD-INT ratio and also run for six scores. His passing has been equally effective compared to Southwick, and Hedrick provides another dimension with his scrambling skills.

BSU has a much more balanced offense compared to OSU’s pass-heavy attack. Jay Ajayi has led the Broncos with 1,328 rushing yards and 17 TDs. Matt Miller leads the team in receiving with 77 catches for 934 yards and 11 TDs.

These schools last met in 2010 with BSU winning by a 37-24 count as a 17.5-point home favorite. The Broncos have won three of the last four head-to-head encounters going back to 2004.

Both schools have seen the ‘over’ go 7-5 overall. However, both teams have seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 in their last six games.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Hawai'i Bowl 12/24
Boise State suspended two QBs during week; reinstated backup but sent former starter Southwick home, bad news for team with an interim coach after Peterson left for Washington. Broncos won six of last eight games after a 2-2 start- they allowed 34+ points in all four losses. Oregon State lost last five games, allowing 37.2 ppg; not sure how they got to a bowl- plus they lost season opener 49-46 to I-AA team. Beavers allowed 30+ points in seven of 12 games, but won 34-30 (-8) at San Diego State, its only game vs Mountain West team this year. Boise lost 38-6 in opener at Washington, its only Pac-12 foe. Underdogs covered four in row and seven of last ten Hawai'i Bowls, with winning side scoring 41+ points in nine of those ten; underdog won SU four of last six years. Boise won last four bowls, beating Pac-12 schools in last two. Oregon State lost its last two bowls, despite being favored in both- their last bowl win was in '08.




NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Hawaii Bowl betting: What bettors need to know
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Boise State Broncos vs. Oregon State Beavers (-3, 63.5)

SHERATON HAWAII BOWL STORYLINES:

1. After turning Boise State into a BCS buster, Chris Petersen left to become the new coach in Washington. Although the school announced the hiring of former Broncos assistant and Arkansas State coach Bryan Harsin to replace Petersen next season, linebackers coach Bob Gregory will lead the team in Honolulu on Dec. 24 against Oregon State in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. Boise State went 92-12 and won a pair of BCS bowl games in eight seasons under Peterson.

2. Sean Mannion (4,403 passing yards, 2nd nationally) and Brandin Cooks (Pac-12 record 120 receptions for an FBS-high 1,670 receiving yards) make the Beavers exciting to watch. Oregon State averaged 43.8 points during a six-game win streak, but has seen that mark fall to 21 per game during its five-game skid.

3. Boise State has won four straight bowl games, but failed to reach the 10-win mark for the first time since 2005 – the year before Petersen took over. Oregon State is 5-2 in the postseason under coach Mike Riley, but has dropped two straight since defeating Pittsburgh in the 2008 Sun Bowl.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The line opened with Oregon State as 2.5-point faves and they have been bet to -3. The total has dropped from 65 to 63.5.

WEATHER: There is a 45 percent chance of rain with an 18 mph wind blowing towards the South end zone.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (8-4, 6-6 ATS): Quarterback Joe Southwick, who missed four games with a broken ankle, returned to start in the regular-season finale but was pulled after throwing for a touchdown on the opening drive. Grant Hedrick, who stepped up with 15 TD passes and five interceptions in Southwick’s absence, went the rest of the way for Boise State – leaving the identity of the starting quarterback in some doubt. The Broncos rank 93rd in pass defense, making the Beavers a less-than-ideal matchup.

ABOUT OREGON STATE (6-6, 6-6 ATS): Mannion averaged 427.4 yards passing and 4.1 touchdowns during the Beavers’ 6-1 start, but has seen those numbers drop to 282.2 and 1.4 during the losing streak. One positive to come out of the team’s Nov. 29 setback against Oregon was the success of the FBS’ 120th-ranked rushing attack, which generated 231 yards – nearly double the team’s previous season high. “It’s a picture of who we want to be and what we’re going to shoot for, both in a bowl game and next year,” Riley said about his team’s balanced 545-yard effort.

TRENDS:

* Boise State is 4-1 ATS in its past five bowl games.
* Oregon State is 1-4 ATS in its last five versus the MWC.
* Over is 4-1 in Boise State's last five neutral site games.
* Over is 4-1 in Oregon State's last five non-conference games.

[StarDust Bum]

December Bowl Game Record:

*****......................... 1 - 3

DOUBLE PLAY..........0 - 2

TRIPLE PLAY............0 - 1



Tuesday, December 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boise State - 8:00 PM ET Oregon State -3.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Oregon State - Over 66.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Bowl Action

December 24, 2013

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Matchup: Bowling Green (10-3 SU, 10-3 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh (6-6 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)
Venue: Ford Field
Location: Detroit, MI
Time/TV: 6:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

The reward for Bowling Green for winning the MAC championship and saving the BCS from having to include Northern Illinois for a second straight season is a trip back to Detroit where the MAC title game was played nearly three weeks ago. With the successful season for Bowling Green, excellent head coach Dave Clawson was hired away to take over at Wake Forest. For this bowl game special teams coordinator and tight ends coach Adam Scheier will lead the Falcons. Eastern Illinois head coach Dino Babers has been hired to take over the Bowling Green program moving forward as there will likely be a complete turnover of the staff with many of Clawson’s assistants following him to Winston-Salem.

After an embarrassing bowl showing last season, losing by 21 against Mississippi in the Compass Bowl, Pittsburgh should be motivated for a better showing this season. In now nearly two seasons led by former Wisconsin assistant Paul Chryst the Panthers have had great inconsistency, delivering a few big wins but also losing several games the program should be expected to win. The Panthers are just 6-6 on the season but the schedule did include nine games against teams that are in bowl games. Pittsburgh won on the road against ACC finalist Duke and also beat Notre Dame and outside of the opening loss to Florida State the Panthers were mostly competitive in every game with several close defeats.

Comparing the statistics between these teams reveals massive edges for Bowling Green on both sides of the ball with the Falcons averaging 6.7 yards per play on offense and surrendering just 4.8 yards per play on defense. Pittsburgh finished with negative net yards per play for the season and the Falcons closed the season by out-gaining each of the last five opponents by at least 120 yards and that included three MAC bowl teams. Bowling Green figures to hold a substantial rushing edge in this matchup but a Falcons team that is 10-3 ATS on the season may be facing an inflated spread, especially given the challenges of the coaching transition and the poor recent bowl track record for teams from the MAC.

While few of the players or coaches were involved, Bowling Green upset Pittsburgh the last time these teams met. That game opened up the 2008 season with Bowling Green winning by 10 as a two-touchdown underdog. Since 2007 Bowling Green is on a 34-15-1 ATS run in non-home games including going 14-3 ATS in the last 17 instances as a favorite away from home. Bowling Green also went 8-2 ATS as a favorite in any venue this season. Pittsburgh is 20-12-1 ATS as an underdog since 2007 though the Panthers are just 2-3 ATS in that role this season with just one S/U win as an underdog.

Poinsettia Bowl
Matchup: Utah State (8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS) vs. Northern Illinois (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Venue: Qualcomm Stadium
Location: San Diego, CA
Time/TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

While there is certainly disappointment for Northern Illinois after coming so close to an undefeated season and a second straight BCS spot, a trip to San Diego is not a bad consolation especially given the recent temperatures in the Midwest. The Huskies won’t have the coaching change distraction they had in last season’s blowout bowl loss in the Orange Bowl. Given the dominant success that Florida State has had this season that 21-point loss for the Huskies does not look quite so damaging. Current head coach Rod Carey led the Huskies in that game so he has bowl experience and should have his team ready to play to close out a still very successful season for the MAC powerhouse. Heisman finalist Jordan Lynch will also be playing in his final collegiate game, finishing with remarkable career numbers.

Utah State is another program that had to deal with the loss of a head coach after last season and while this season’s results fell short of last season’s success, it was a solid season given the transition for first year head coach Matt Wells to a new conference and the mid-season injury of do-everything quarterback Chuckie Keeton. Utah State won its division in its first season in the Mountain West and lost narrowly to Fresno State in the conference championship game to sit at 8-5 overall on the season. Utah State only defeated three teams that are in bowl games but respect is warranted for narrow losses on the road against two Pac-12 teams, Utah and USC. Replacing Keeton was the huge challenge of the season and after some early struggles Darell Garretson led the team to wins in five of the final six games though with some inconsistency. He injured his hand in the MWC championship but he is expected to start this game.

Statistically Utah State has been vastly superior on defense with an impressive run defense that allowed just 2.8 yards per rush. While it has been a very good defense, facing a lot of pass heavy teams in the Mountain West may skew the numbers a bit against the run. Northern Illinois is incredibly posting 7.0 yards per play this season as one of the top offenses in the nation. Led by Lunch the Huskies have gained 6.6 yards per rush this season while averaging over 312 yards per game on the ground. The Northern Illinois defense has been shaky at times this season however, surrendering 424 yards per game on 5.6 yards per play, a full yard worse than Utah State averaged with the Aggies facing a slightly stronger schedule.

These teams have not met since 1995, a game Utah State won easily at home. Northern Illinois is actually just 3-10-1 ATS in neutral site games since 2005 with limited success in bowl opportunities despite the great overall run for the program. The Huskies are 20-12-3 ATS as a favorite of seven or fewer points since 1999 though by kickoff the Huskies may end up as a slight underdog. The Huskies are just 6-6 ATS the last 12 games when getting points. Utah State is 11-3 ATS the last 14 non-home games and the Aggies have been on a great run as an underdog going 19-8 ATS since 2009. Utah State is just 6-11 ATS since 2006 in closely lined games with a spread of three or less in either direction however.

[StarDust Bum]

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl betting: What bettors need to know


Pittsburgh Panthers at Bowling Green Falcons (-4, 50)

Game will be played at Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

LITTLE CAESARS BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Bowling Green returns to Ford Field for the second time in 20 days on Dec. 26 when it faces Pittsburgh in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. The Falcons claimed their first MAC Championship in 21 years with a 47-27 victory over previously undefeated Northern Illinois, but they will make this trip to Detroit without Dave Clawson, who filled the coaching vacancy at Wake Forest after turning Bowling Green around in five seasons. Special teams coordinator Adam Scheier will serve as the interim coach.

2. For the first time since 2009, the Panthers will spend the postseason somewhere else besides Birmingham, Ala. Pittsburgh concluded each of its last three years in the BBVA Compass Bowl, defeating Kentucky at the end of the its 2010 season before ending the last two campaigns with losses to Southern Methodist and Mississippi.

3. The Falcons rank fifth in the country in scoring defense (14.8 points) and eighth in total defense (308.7 yards), but the most dominant defensive player on the field figures to be Panthers defensive tackle Aaron Donald. The Bronko Nagurski Trophy winner and ACC Defensive Player of the Year leads the nation in tackles for loss (26.5), is tied for eighth in forced fumbles (four) and tied for 13th in sacks (10).

TV: 6 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The Falcons opened as 6-point faves, but have been bet down to -4. The total has stayed put at 50.

WEATHER: N/A.

ABOUT PITTSBURGH (6-6, 5-7 ATS): Donald, who is also a finalist for the Lombardi, Bednarik and Outland Trophies, is the first Pitt defensive player to win a national award since Hugh Green claimed the Lombardi, Maxwell and Walter Camp awards in 1980. With 77 catches for 1,001 yards, Tyler Boyd broke Larry Fitzgerald’s school record of 69 receptions by a freshman and needs only five more yards to surpass him in that category. Devin Street is the school’s all-time leading receiver and the first Panther with more than 200 career catches.

ABOUT BOWLING GREEN (10-3, 10-3 ATS): While the defense receives more credit, the offense has done its fair share during the Falcons’ five-game winning streak in which they have outscored opponents 223-44. Matt Johnson, who threw for a career-high 393 yards and broke a MAC championship record with five touchdown passes, has thrown for at least three scores four times during the winning streak. Travis Greene has rushed for over 100 yards nine times and ran for 1,575 yards this season, both of which are school records.

TRENDS:

* Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last five games in December.
* Bowling Green is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a SU win.
* Under is 6-1 in Pittsburgh's last seven bowl games.
* Under is 4-0 in Bowling Green's last four non-conference games.

[StarDust Bum]

Poinsettia Bowl betting: What bettors need to know


Utah State Aggies vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (-1.5, 58)

The game will be played at Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, California

SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Heisman Trophy finalist Jordan Lynch plays the final game of his stellar college career when No. 23 Northern Illinois faces Utah State in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 26. Lynch has passed for 2,676 yards and 23 touchdowns, but it is his running abilities that allowed him to crash the Heisman festivities. Lynch rushed for 1,881 yards and 22 scores and twice ran for more than 300 yards in a game.

2. The Huskies were hoping to play in a BCS bowl for the second straight year but were relegated to the Poinsettia Bowl after losing to Bowling Green in the Mid-American Conference title game. A victory would give Northern Illinois the first 13-win season in school history while Utah State is playing in back-to-back-to-back bowls for the first time ever and is looking for the third bowl victory in school history.

3. The Aggies lost star quarterback Chuckie Keeton at midseason and it was thought their fortunes would spiral downward. But Utah State rebounded to win its final five regular-season games and is brimming with confidence after giving Fresno State a hard battle in the Mountain West title game before succumbing.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The line hasn't moved off -1.5 and the total has stayed put at 58.

WEATHER: It will be clear with temperatures in the mid 60s.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (12-1, 8-5 ATS): The Huskies average 41.6 points and 535.5 total yards with nearly 60 percent of the production (312.5) coming on the ground. Lynch is complemented by running back Cameron Stingily (1,081, nine touchdowns) and his favorite targets are possession receiver Tommylee Lewis (80 catches, 660 yards) and big-play wideout Da’Ron Brown (42 for 689, nine TDs). Northern Illinois allows 25.4 points per game and the defense is led by safety Jimmie Ward (team leader with 89 tackles and six interceptions), outside linebacker Jamaal Bass (81 stops) and middle linebacker Boomer Mayes (77 tackles).

ABOUT UTAH STATE (8-5, 8-5 ATS): The Aggies are stout on defense, ranking seventh in scoring defense (17.3), 10th in rushing defense (107.3) and 12th in total defense (332.1) while featuring several standouts. Inside linebackers Jake Doughty (140 tackles, 10.5 for loss) and Zach Vigil (115 tackles, 12.5 for loss) are always around the ball while cornerback Nevin Lawson and safety Brian Suite each have four interceptions. Freshman Darell Garretson (1,325 yards, nine touchdowns) replaced Keeton at quarterback for an offense that also features running back Joey DeMartino (1,078 yards, 12 scores) and three wideouts who caught 50 or more passes in Bruce Natson (56), Travis Reynolds (51) and Travis Van Leeuwen (50).

TRENDS:

* Utah State is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games.
* Norther Illinois is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games in December.
* Under is 4-0 in Utah State's last four games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Northern Illinois last four non-conference games.

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Stats

December 25, 2013


A Merry Christmas to you and yours.

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

At The Wire

As we detailed in this space the last two weeks, the final four weeks of the NFL season is a race to the wire for teams in the playoff chase. It’s also time teams out of contention put things on cruise control and start preparing for next season instead.

According to our database some coaches shine while others wine during the final four games down the stretch.

From an ATS standpoint, listed below are coaches in their BEST and WORST roles throughout their NFL career and the situational role in which appear this week. Remember, the coaches listed in this spot last week combined to ring the register with a 6-1 ATS overall performance.

All results are ATS (Against The Spread).

Best Roles

John Fox, Denver: 7-1 as a favorite of more than 9 points
Mike McCarthy, Green Bay: 8-1 as an underdog
Joe Philbin, Miami: 3-0 at home
Ron Rivera, Carolina: 4-0-1 as a favorite

Worst Roles

Dennis Allen, Oakland: 0-4 off a double-digit loss
Jason Garrett, Dallas: 1-7 vs. division opponents
Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco: 0-6 vs. division foes
Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati: 4-10 after score 24 more points
Mike Munchak, Tennessee: 0-3 off a win

Vinegar And Oil

This week’s NFL ‘leaking oil’ favorites, those who have been out yarded in each of their last three games, are the Miami Dolphins and the New York Giants. Both teams will be laying points in to avenging division rivals.

While these ‘play against’ favorites started out as a house afire to being the season they quickly returned to the norm and have settled into a 50% proposition on the season.

Put A Pin In It

Off the highest scoring week in NFL history two weeks ago, last week was the lowest scoring week of the season with 69% of the games going UNDER the total.

The net result was a 5-11 UNDER week for total in the NFL.

For the season its been 126 OVERS and 110 UNDERS, with non-conference games leading the OVER charge, going 2-0 OVER last week, to close out the season at 47-15 (76%)!

With the final week of the campaign filled with all division matchups you’ll have to wait for the Super Bowl for the next non-conference OVER play.

Coaches Corner

If you missed our report last week, here is a list of college football coaches and their career tendencies in Pre-New Year's Day games.

Good Coaches

Bronco Mendenhall, BYU: 15-6 ATS as a dog vs. < 1.000 opponent
Al Golden, Miami Fl.: 0-4 SUATS vs. 900 > foe off a SUATS win
Brady Hoke, Michigan: 15-3 ATS off a loss if team .500 or greater
Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss: 9-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech: 17-1 ATS dog vs. an opp off a loss
Jim Mora, UCLA: 6-1 SUATS off a win vs. opponent off a win of 3 >
David Bailiff, Rice: 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS with rest
David Cutcliffe, Duke: 3-1 SU/ATS as a bowl dog

Bad Coaches

Mike Riley, Oregon State: 8-1 ATS away off BB losses (WIN-Hawaii Bowl)
Rich Rodriguez, Arizona: 1-5 ATS in all bowl games
Dan Mullen, Mississippi State: 8-18 ATS vs. .750 > opponents

Stat Of The Week

Notre Dame is 0-10 SUATS in bowl games versus an opponent off a win.

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Thursday's Bowl Action

December 24, 2013


Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Matchup: Bowling Green (10-3 SU, 10-3 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh (6-6 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)
Venue: Ford Field
Location: Detroit, MI
Time/TV: 6:00 p.m. ET, ESPN

The reward for Bowling Green for winning the MAC championship and saving the BCS from having to include Northern Illinois for a second straight season is a trip back to Detroit where the MAC title game was played nearly three weeks ago. With the successful season for Bowling Green, excellent head coach Dave Clawson was hired away to take over at Wake Forest. For this bowl game special teams coordinator and tight ends coach Adam Scheier will lead the Falcons. Eastern Illinois head coach Dino Babers has been hired to take over the Bowling Green program moving forward as there will likely be a complete turnover of the staff with many of Clawson’s assistants following him to Winston-Salem.

After an embarrassing bowl showing last season, losing by 21 against Mississippi in the Compass Bowl, Pittsburgh should be motivated for a better showing this season. In now nearly two seasons led by former Wisconsin assistant Paul Chryst the Panthers have had great inconsistency, delivering a few big wins but also losing several games the program should be expected to win. The Panthers are just 6-6 on the season but the schedule did include nine games against teams that are in bowl games. Pittsburgh won on the road against ACC finalist Duke and also beat Notre Dame and outside of the opening loss to Florida State the Panthers were mostly competitive in every game with several close defeats.

Comparing the statistics between these teams reveals massive edges for Bowling Green on both sides of the ball with the Falcons averaging 6.7 yards per play on offense and surrendering just 4.8 yards per play on defense. Pittsburgh finished with negative net yards per play for the season and the Falcons closed the season by out-gaining each of the last five opponents by at least 120 yards and that included three MAC bowl teams. Bowling Green figures to hold a substantial rushing edge in this matchup but a Falcons team that is 10-3 ATS on the season may be facing an inflated spread, especially given the challenges of the coaching transition and the poor recent bowl track record for teams from the MAC.

While few of the players or coaches were involved, Bowling Green upset Pittsburgh the last time these teams met. That game opened up the 2008 season with Bowling Green winning by 10 as a two-touchdown underdog. Since 2007 Bowling Green is on a 34-15-1 ATS run in non-home games including going 14-3 ATS in the last 17 instances as a favorite away from home. Bowling Green also went 8-2 ATS as a favorite in any venue this season. Pittsburgh is 20-12-1 ATS as an underdog since 2007 though the Panthers are just 2-3 ATS in that role this season with just one S/U win as an underdog.

Poinsettia Bowl
Matchup: Utah State (8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS) vs. Northern Illinois (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Venue: Qualcomm Stadium
Location: San Diego, CA
Time/TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

While there is certainly disappointment for Northern Illinois after coming so close to an undefeated season and a second straight BCS spot, a trip to San Diego is not a bad consolation especially given the recent temperatures in the Midwest. The Huskies won’t have the coaching change distraction they had in last season’s blowout bowl loss in the Orange Bowl. Given the dominant success that Florida State has had this season that 21-point loss for the Huskies does not look quite so damaging. Current head coach Rod Carey led the Huskies in that game so he has bowl experience and should have his team ready to play to close out a still very successful season for the MAC powerhouse. Heisman finalist Jordan Lynch will also be playing in his final collegiate game, finishing with remarkable career numbers.

Utah State is another program that had to deal with the loss of a head coach after last season and while this season’s results fell short of last season’s success, it was a solid season given the transition for first year head coach Matt Wells to a new conference and the mid-season injury of do-everything quarterback Chuckie Keeton. Utah State won its division in its first season in the Mountain West and lost narrowly to Fresno State in the conference championship game to sit at 8-5 overall on the season. Utah State only defeated three teams that are in bowl games but respect is warranted for narrow losses on the road against two Pac-12 teams, Utah and USC. Replacing Keeton was the huge challenge of the season and after some early struggles Darell Garretson led the team to wins in five of the final six games though with some inconsistency. He injured his hand in the MWC championship but he is expected to start this game.

Statistically Utah State has been vastly superior on defense with an impressive run defense that allowed just 2.8 yards per rush. While it has been a very good defense, facing a lot of pass heavy teams in the Mountain West may skew the numbers a bit against the run. Northern Illinois is incredibly posting 7.0 yards per play this season as one of the top offenses in the nation. Led by Lunch the Huskies have gained 6.6 yards per rush this season while averaging over 312 yards per game on the ground. The Northern Illinois defense has been shaky at times this season however, surrendering 424 yards per game on 5.6 yards per play, a full yard worse than Utah State averaged with the Aggies facing a slightly stronger schedule.

These teams have not met since 1995, a game Utah State won easily at home. Northern Illinois is actually just 3-10-1 ATS in neutral site games since 2005 with limited success in bowl opportunities despite the great overall run for the program. The Huskies are 20-12-3 ATS as a favorite of seven or fewer points since 1999 though by kickoff the Huskies may end up as a slight underdog. The Huskies are just 6-6 ATS the last 12 games when getting points. Utah State is 11-3 ATS the last 14 non-home games and the Aggies have been on a great run as an underdog going 19-8 ATS since 2009. Utah State is just 6-11 ATS since 2006 in closely lined games with a spread of three or less in either direction however.

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Pittsburgh ready to face Bowling Green

December 25, 2013



DETROIT (AP) - Pittsburgh defensive tackle Aaron Donald won a slew of awards this year.

The senior is hoping to close the season with a win Thursday night against Bowling Green at the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl to help the Panthers finish with a winning record for the first time since he was a freshman.

The Falcons won't be easy to beat.

Bowling Green (10-3) is favored to top the Panthers (6-6) at Ford Field, where it defeated previously unbeaten and 16th-ranked Northern Illinois in the Mid-American Conference championship game earlier this month.

The impressive victory and the program's turnaround led to Wake Forest hiring coach Dave Clawson away from the Falcons. Bowling Green picked former Eastern Illinois coach Dino Babers to replace Clawson but will be led in the bowl game by interim coach Adam Scheier.

Here are five things to watch when Pittsburgh and Bowling Green match up in the Motor City:

DOMINANT DONALD: Donald won the Lombardi, Outland, Nagurski and Bednarik awards and was the ACC defensive player of the year. The 6-foot, 285-pound defensive tackle had 10 sacks this season and led the nation with 2.2 tackles for loss per game. ''He's a disruptive force,'' Scheier said. ''We're just going to have to keep him in check.''

POTENT OFFENSE: Bowling Green averaged 35.4 points and 472.5 yards with a balanced offense. Travis Greene ran for a single-season, school-record 1,555 yards. Matt Johnson threw for 3,195 yards with 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Johnson outplayed Heisman Trophy finalist Jordan Lynch in the MAC title game, throwing four of his career-high five touchdown passes in the first half. He was 21 of 27 for a career-high 393 yards, connected with five teammates for scores and didn't throw an interception against a team playing for a BCS bowl bid.

CONSISTENTLY AVERAGE: The Panthers finished 6-7 in each of the last two years, capping each losing season with a lopsided defeat at the Compass Bowl. Mississippi routed Pitt 38-17 last season and SMU beat the Panthers 28-6 a year earlier. ''We want to finish strong and wanted the opportunity to play another game with this group,'' second-year Pitt coach Paul Chryst said. ''We like this group, and there's a big difference in our room between going 7-6 and 6-7.''

COACHING CHANGES: The Falcons won't have Clawson, but they will have some coaching continuity during their return to Detroit. Scheier, in his fifth season with the program, was the team's special teams coordinator and tight ends coach under Clawson. The interim coach will be assisted by offensive coordinator Warren Ruggiero and defensive coordinator Mike Elko against Pitt. ''What we do here works,'' Scheier said. ''It's a plan and foundation put in place by coach Clawson.'' Clawson and his staff helped Bowling Green become the only team to have a chance this season to increase its number of victories by three for a third straight year. The Falcons can match a school record with an 11th win. They had eight victories last year, five in 2011 and two in 2010. Babers, a former Baylor assistant, turned around Eastern Illinois during a short stay. He was 19-17 in two seasons with the Ohio Valley Conference program.

SWAN SONG: The Detroit Lions decided to get in the bowl business and will host a game next year, effectively pushing the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl out of their stadium. The bowl game has been held at Ford Field since 2002. It was previously called the Motor City Bowl and was played at the Silverdome in Pontiac, Mich.

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Lynch leads NIU into Poinsettia Bowl

December 25, 2013



SAN DIEGO (AP) - Jordan Lynch will make a run at history Thursday night when he suits up for the final time for No. 24 Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl against Utah State.

Lynch already owns the major college record for yards rushing for a quarterback with 1,881. With 119 yards, he can become the first player to rush for 2,000 yards and throw for 2,000.

''I'm just really proud of him and wish I had him for about 10 more years but we don't,'' NIU coach Rod Carey said. ''This is the last game we get him. That's the biggest thing with him.''

Lynch has passed for 2,676 yards and 23 touchdowns. He's rushed for 22 scores and even caught a touchdown pass in leading the Huskies to a 12-1 record.

''Listen, we ask him to do a lot, and it's not because that's our system. It's because he can,'' Carey said. ''Those are the things that amaze you. He makes the complicated things and the hard things skillwise look easy. That's what amazes you every day. You tell him one time one play and then it's done. It's locked in a vault. That's what is amazing to me.''

That's why Lynch was named to The Associated Press All-America team as an all-purpose player.

Utah State coach Matt Wells knows Lynch has quite the supporting cast in fellow 1,000-yard rusher Cameron Stingily and wide receivers Tommylee Lewis and Da'Ron Brown.

''Jordan Lynch is fun to watch - it's not fun to watch because you understand you're going to have to defend him, but from a quarterback perspective, I've got a lot of respect for him,'' said Wells, who played quarterback at Utah State in the mid-1990s.

''The guy is an 1,800-yard running back, and by the way he's over 60-percent completion and 3-to-1 touchdown-interception ratio. It's amazing, and that's back-to-back years. As you study him and the things that he's done since he's become a starter, he's a flat-out winner,'' Wells said.

''I said to Rod last Wednesday when we were talking, you know, it's almost like it's a once-in-a-lifetime young man to coach because I know he's the face of that program and everything that he's meant to that staff and that program and that city, that university.''

Here are five things to look for when Northern Illinois plays Utah State (8-5):

LYNCH PIN: Lynch accounts for 65 percent of the NIU offense with 1,881 yards rushing, 2,676 passing and 43 touchdowns. He's 24-3 as the starter in two seasons. His eight 100-yard rushing games include two of more than 300 yards.

CONSOLATION PRIZE: The teams are coming off losses in conference championship games. NIU, the Mid-American Conference West Division champion, was routed 47-27 by Bowling Green in the conference title game. Utah State, which edged Boise State for the Mountain West Mountain Division title, lost 24-17 to Fresno State in the league championship game.

SKILL GUYS: Lynch isn't a one-man band. Cameron Stingily has 1,081 yards rushing, giving NIU its first 1,000-yard rushing tandem. Three wide receivers have at least 30 catches each: Tommylee Lewis has 80 catches for 660 yards and three touchdowns, Da'Ron Brown has 42 catches for 689 yards and nine scores and Juwan Brescacin has 30 catches for 469 yards and five TDs.

LINEBACKERS: Jake Doughty and Zach Vigil lead an Aggies defense that has intercepted 16 passes in its last nine games and scored three touchdowns in 2013. Doughty has 140 tackles, two sacks, an interception, one fumble recovery - which he returned 86 yards for a TD against Fresno State - and one forced fumble. Vigil has 115 tackles, two sacks, one interception, two fumble recoveries and two forced fumbles.

BOWLING: NIU is playing in its sixth straight bowl game and second Poinsettia Bowl. It lost 37-7 to TCU in 2006 Poinsettia Bowl. Utah State is playing in its school-record third straight bowl game. The Aggies are facing a MAC team in a bowl for the third straight year and the fourth time overall. They beat Toledo in last year's Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, lost to Ohio in the 2011 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl and beat Ball State in the 1993 Las Vegas Bowl.