The Bum's College Football + Bowl Games POD'S- Trends- Stats !

[StarDust Bum]

Dog......i like Navy until this morning then changed when i seen the line move.....I thought MTS would keep it close with the amount of points they score a game......

But no one is scoring.....how many UNDERS in a row do we have no.......8 - 9 in a row.....Unreal

Am going with TEXAS with motivation for their coach.....And OREGON after playing in the ROSE BOWL and other major BCS Bowl games this one shouldn't be a big deal for them

they are there to collect their watches and stuff.......lol

Arizona St. will keep the PAC -12 winning

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Early Action

December 30, 2013


AdvoCare V100 Bowl
Matchup: Boston College Eagles (7-5) vs. Arizona Wildcats (7-5)
Venue: Independence Stadium
Location: Shreveport, LA
Time/TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Arizona -7 ½, Total: 57

Red-hot Boston College enters Tuesday's AdvoCare V100 Bowl having won four of its past five games and faces a slumping Arizona squad that lost three of its final four.

Both teams finished the season 7-5 SU while the Eagles were 7-5 ATS and the Wildcats were 5-6-1 ATS. Boston College covered in three of its final five contests, though both of those ATS defeats came away from home, where they were 2-4 ATS. Arizona lost six of its nine conference games ATS, and was also 2-4 ATS away from home. This matchup will pit two of the nation’s most aggressive rushing offenses against one another. The Eagles feature Heisman Trophy finalist RB Andre Williams, who led an attack that averaged 218.1 rushing yards per game (20th in nation). Williams suffered a shoulder injury in the regular season finale, but he will play on Tuesday.

The Wildcats, led by RB Ka'Deem Carey, were even better with 265.8 rushing yards per game (11th in FBS), and finished with a whopping 33 rushing touchdowns. Although Boston College is 17-4 ATS (81%) after three straight games of forcing one or less turnovers since 1992, the club is 0-6 ATS in non-home games over the past two seasons after being outgained by its opponent by 125+ total yards in its previous game.

Boston College senior Andre Williams (2,102 rush yards, 6.4 YPC, 17 TD) ultimately finished fourth in the Heisman standings, putting up ridiculous numbers despite the Eagles’ mediocre season. He ran for more than 200 yards five times, all Boston College wins, including a 339-yard performance against NC State on Nov. 16. Before he was injured in a loss at Syracuse to end the season, Williams had rushed for 1,063 yards (266 YPG) and 8 TD during his team's four-game win streak. He makes life easier for senior QB Chase Rettig (1,804 pass yards, 7.6 YPA, 17 TD, 6 INT), who completed 61.6% of his passes, but topped 200 passing yards just three times all season.

Only one receiver had more than 200 yards for the Eagles, senior WR Alex Amidon (67 catches, 903 yards, 5 TD). The Boston College defense gave up 27.8 PPG (73rd in FBS), but only 154 rushing YPG on 3.9 YPC, which is important going up against this Arizona squad. The passing defense is a real weakness though, giving up 268 YPG (8.1 YPA) on a 67% completion rate. The unit has generated multiple turnovers just twice in the past 10 games.

Junior RB Ka’Deem Carey (1,716 rush yards, 5.3 YPC, 17 TD) leads the Arizona rushing attack, having run for at least 119 yards in every game he played, rushing for at least one touchdown in nine of his 11 contests. Unlike with Boston College though, Carey is not a one-man show, as senior QB B.J. Denker (898 rush yards, 5.4 YPC, 12 TD is a serious threat with his legs. As a thrower, Denker (2,241 pass yards, 6.3 YPA, 14 TD, 7 INT) isn’t too shabby either, though he had his worst performance of the season in the finale, throwing a season-high three interceptions in a 58-21 blowout loss at rival Arizona State.

He has four receivers with at least 200 receiving yards, led by freshman WR Nate Phillips (42 catches, 503 yards, 7 TD). Although he scored all seven touchdowns in his final eight games, Phillips did not gain 100 yards in any game this season. The Wildcats rush defense yields 170 YPG on 4.2 YPC, but is far stingier against the pass than the Eagles, allowing opponents to complete only 58% of their throws for 235 YPG and 6.5 YPA. Arizona also does a better job of forcing turnovers with 2+ takeaways in six of its 12 games.

Sun Bowl
Matchup: Virginia Tech Hokies (8-4) vs. UCLA Bruins (9-3)
Venue: Sun Bowl Stadium
Location: El Paso, TX
Time/TV: 2:00 p.m. ET, CBS
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: UCLA -7, Total: 47

With a chance at winning 10 games for the first time since 2005, No. 17 UCLA will take on a Virginia Tech team that struggled with its consistency this season when the schools meet in Tuesday's Sun Bowl.

While the Hokies have one of the stingiest defenses in the nation, giving up only 17.4 PPG (8th in FBS), they lost three of their past five games (1-4 ATS) to Duke, Boston College and Maryland, ending the year with a victory against Virginia. They finished 4-6-2 ATS overall, including 2-4 ATS away from home. The Bruins played a much tougher schedule and own solid road wins at then-No. 23 Nebraska and at then-No. 23 USC. All of their losses were respectable too, falling to Stanford, Oregon and Arizona State, who all currently rank among the top-16 teams in the nation. UCLA finished 8-4 ATS, including 4-2 (SU and ATS) away from home. And over the past five seasons, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a double-digit road win against opponent coming off a road win are 28-6 ATS (82%).

But Virginia Tech also has a favorable trend: Any poor rushing team (100-140 YPG) versus an average rushing defense (140-190 YPG) after 7+ games, in a non-conference game between two BCS conference teams, are 44-16 ATS (73%) since 1992. Both teams have a slew of injuries, with the most notable being Hokies CBs Antone Exum (ankle, doubtful) and Kyle Fuller (groin, questionable). But UCLA might not be able to expose this depleted secondary as WRs Darren Andrews (leg) and Damien Thigpen (ankle) are both questionable to play.

Virginia Tech’s offense often failed to get things going this year, scoring only 23.4 PPG (97th in nation). QB Logan Thomas was often unreliable, completing just 57% of his passes for 2,861 yards, 16 TD and 13 INT. He added four rushing TD, though he averaged only 1.9 YPC on 159 carries. Freshman RB Trey Edmunds (675 rush yards, 4.1 YPC, 10 TD) is the leading ball carrier for Frank Beamer’s team. Through the air, Thomas has three top targets: WRs Willie Byrn, Demitri Knowles and Joshua Stanford. All three had just over 600 receiving yards, though combined for only six touchdowns. Senior WR D.J. Coles, who had only 365 receiving yards, paced the team with six receiving TD.

Where the Hokies excelled was on the defensive side of the ball, allowing a mere 270 total YPG on 4.3 yards per play. They were impressive in both facets, giving up 104 rushing YPG on 3.0 YPC. And through the air, opponents completed only 47% of their passes for 166 YPG on 6.0 YPA. Virginia Tech helped itself out by forcing a ton of turnovers, totaling 25 for the season, which included eight games with at least two takeaways.

The stingy Virginia Tech defense may make life difficult, but the Bruins averaged a hefty 36.5 PPG (24th in FBS). Sophomore QB Brett Hundley has his work cut out for him, though he showed why he’s a pro prospect this year, as he has completed 68% of his passes for 2,845 yards (8.3 YPA) with 22 TD and 9 INT. He also led the team in rushing with 150 carries for 587 yards (3.9 YPC), scoring with his legs nine times. He has a strong connection with senior WR Shaquelle Evans, who led the team in all receiving categories with 43 catches, 617 yards and eight touchdown grabs. Helping Hundley on the ground are RBs Paul Perkins and Jordon James, who have combined for 1,095 yards on 4.9 YPC and 10 touchdowns.

UCLA’s defense wasn’t bad, giving up 24.1 PPG (37th in FBS), but its stats are not nearly as intimidating as Virginia Tech’s. They give up 170 rushing YPG on 4.0 YPC, and 221 passing YPG on 6.6 YPA, with opposing quarterbacks completing 63% of their attempts. It should be noted, however, that the Bruins faced many more top offenses this year, such as Alabama, Oregon and Stanford, than the Hokies did. UCLA also helped itself out with 2+ takeaways in seven of 12 games.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Late Action

December 31, 2013


Liberty Bowl
Matchup: Mississippi State (6-6) vs. Rice Owls (10-3 )
Venue: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Location: Memphis, TN
Time/TV: 4:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Mississippi State -7, Total: 50 ½

Rice looks to add a bowl win to its C-USA championship when it takes on the Mississippi State Bulldogs on New Year’s Eve in the Liberty Bowl.

Mississippi State was a team that could beat the schools it was supposed to, but could not contend with the big dogs of college football. Of its six losses, all came against programs that were ranked at some point during the season. Of the six wins, only one could really be considered impressive (17-10 over 4-point favorite Ole Miss). The Bulldogs have been to a bowl in each of the past three seasons, going 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS while losing in the Gator Bowl against Northwestern last season by a score of 34-20 as two-point underdogs.

The Owls, on the other hand, put together a spectacular season and won their first conference championship since being the Southwest champions in 1994. They enter Tuesday having won nine of their past 10 games SU (6-4 ATS), and have been successful in their previous two bowl games, one last year and one in 2008, winning both SU and ATS. Last season they took down Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, 33-14, and easily covered the one-point spread.

This game will mark the first time that these two programs are meeting. Rice has gone 3-12 ATS (20%) in road games after having won five or six out of their last seven games since 1992, but is 24-10 ATS (71%) off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog in the same timeframe. There are no significant injuries for this matchup.

The Bulldogs put together a solid offensive season with their balanced offense; compiling 185.8 YPG on the ground (45th in nation) and 240.3 YPG through the air (56th in FBS). QB Dak Prescott was responsible for helping in both categories as he threw for 1,657 yards (6.9 YPA) with seven touchdowns, but struggled with accuracy (7 INT, 58% completions). But the sophomore has run for 751 yards (6.3 YPC) with 11 touchdowns in 10 games. He put together four rushing performances of 100+ yards and also ran for multiple touchdowns in four different games.

Senior HB LaDarius Perkins also helped out the backfield with 495 rushing yards (4.0 YPC) and two touchdowns, but managed only 62 yards on 28 carries (2.2 YPC) with zero touchdowns in the last three regular-season games.

Junior WR Jameon Lewis was by far the team’s top receiver, leading the team in receptions (55), receiving yards (703) and touchdowns catches (five). While he was consistent on the year, he had only one game where he broke 100 yards (111 versus LSU on Oct. 5).

Senior DB Nickoe Whitley (55 tackles, 5 interceptions) and the Bulldogs’ defense held opponents to 24.3 PPG on the season (40th in FBS), including only 15.7 PPG over their past three contests despite the past two going to overtime. This unit has a tendency to give up chunks of yardage though, allowing 151 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC, and giving up 215 passing YPG on 6.9 YPA and 62.4% completions. A big reason MSU was able to keep scores low was its ability to force turnovers, racking up 24 takeaways this season, including at least three in each of the past four games.

Rice came out and ran the ball down their opponents' throats this season, to the tune of 240.2 YPG (15h in nation). The team capped off the season with 248 rushing yards in the C-USA championship game against Marshall, which it won 41-24. Senior HB Charles Ross is responsible for the bulk of the offense as he ran for 1,252 yards on 201 attempts (6.2 YPC) and 14 touchdowns despite missing two games on the year. He had seven 100-yard rushing performances, with his best one coming against Louisiana Tech on Nov. 16 when he ran for 215 yards (8.0 YPC) and five touchdowns in a 52-14 blowout win.

Senior QB Taylor McHargue quietly had a great season with 2,261 passing yards (7.3 YPA), 17 TD and 8 INT. McHargue was careful with the ball over the final four games of the season, throwing five touchdowns and zero interceptions, but averaging only 170.5 passing YPG in this span. McHargue likes to spread the ball around with four different receivers catching at least 20 passes on the year, but WR Jordan Taylor was clearly his favorite target. Taylor had 846 receiving yards (15.7 avg.) and caught eight touchdown passes on the season while putting together a terrific game against Marshall in the conference championship with six catches for 131 yards and a touchdown.

Senior CB Phillip Gaines (34 tackles, 4 interceptions) led the Owls defense that allowed only 22.9 PPG to their opponents (33rd in nation) on the season. Although the run defense struggled at times, allowing 155 YPG on 4.0 YPC, the pass defense didn't give up much with 196 YPG on 6.7 YPA and a paltry 51% completion rate. Although the team recorded a respectable 25 takeaways on the season, it has forced just two turnovers in the past three games combined.

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Matchup: Duke (10-3) vs. Texas A&M (8-4)
Venue: Georgia Dome
Location: Atlanta, GA
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Sportsbook.ag Opening Line: Texas A&M -12, Total: 75 ½

In what will likely be Johnny Manziel’s last collegiate game, No. 20 Texas A&M will play No. 22 Duke in the Chick-fil-A Bowl in Atlanta.

Playing a tough SEC schedule, the Aggies went 8-4 SU this year and lost their final two games of the season to LSU and Missouri. They also lost ATS in their final three games of the season, going just 4-8 ATS all year.

Duke was blown out 45-7 by No. 1 Florida State in the ACC Championship Game, but earned the first 10-win season in program history while also going 10-3 ATS. The Blue Devils’ marquee wins included ones over Virginia Tech and Miami, both of whom were ranked at the time. Before falling to FSU, they had won eight in a row.

Their tough task will be containing an Aggies offense that averages 43.6 PPG (5th in FBS), led by Manziel and the offense’s 350.9 passing yards per game (7th in nation). The Aggies defense has struggled though, giving up 30.9 PPG (89th in FBS). The Blue Devils, by contrast, averaged only 31.6 PPG (50th in nation), but gave up 24.7 PPG (47th in FBS).

Duke head coach David Cutcliffe is 0-8 ATS in non-home games against teams that average at least 6.25 yards per play as the head coach of Duke, but he is also 43-26 ATS (62%) when facing a team with a winning record as a collegiate head coach.

Duke’s first two losses came while starting QB Anthony Boone (1,833 pass yards, 10 TD, 11 INT) was injured, with the junior completing 64% of his passes. Without him, the more mobile Brandon Connette (1,212 pass yards, 13 TD, 6 INT) performed admirably and still sometimes gets snaps to give defenses another look. Averaging 3.4 YPC, he led the team with 13 rushing touchdowns.

The team’s leading rusher, RB Jela Duncan, was just suspended for the bowl game and next season for academic reasons, but the offense has a deep crew of backs with Josh Snead (547 rush yards, 6.1 YPC) and Shaquille Powell (337 rush yards, 5.6 YPC) splitting the snaps with Duncan all year. The team’s No. 1 receiving threat is Jamison Crowder (96 catches, 1,197 yards, 7 TD), and he’s also very dangerous returning punts.

Opposing rushers carried the ball for 4.2 YPC against the Duke defense while passers completed only 55.5% of their passes, but produced a solid 7.2 yards per attempt against the secondary.

Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel had another elite season for the Aggies, completing 69.1% of his passes for 3,732 yards, 33 TD and 13 INT. He struggled in the team’s final two games, throwing for only 2 TD and 2 INT. He’s also a threat with his legs, rushing for a team-high 686 yards on 5.2 YPC and eight touchdowns. RB Ben Malena (506 rush yards, 4.7 YPC) led the backfield with 10 touchdowns. Manziel’s top throwing target is WR Mike Evans (1,322 receiving yards, 12 TD), who averaged a ridiculous 20.3 yards per catch. Although he has five games of at least 115 receiving yards this year, Evans had just 59 receiving yards in the team's past two games, both losses.

The Aggies defense gives up 239 passing YPG (7.3 YPA) on 57% completions, but struggled even more against the run, where they gave up 221 rushing YPG on 5.3 YPC this season. To be fair, the unit that allowed 460 total YPG on 6.2 yards per play was on the field for a whopping 32:52. A&M also needs to force some Duke turnovers, having tallied just two takeaways in its four defeats this season, compared to 18 forced turnovers in the eight victories.

[StarDust Bum]

2013-14 Bowl Betting Results
December 31, 2013


Bowl Conference Standings

Conference Straight Up (SU) Against the Spread (ATS)


ACC 4-2 4-2

American (AAC) 1-2 2-1

Big 10 0-2 0-2

Big 12 2-1 2-1

CUSA 1-2 1-2

Independent 3-1 2-2

Mid-American 0-4 0-4

Mountain West 3-2 3-2

Pac-12 4-2 4-2

SEC 0-1 0-1

Sun Belt 1-0 1-0

WAC - -


Overall Game Results

Wager SU Win SU Loss ATS Win ATS Loss

Favorite 12 7 11 8

Underdog 7 12 8 11

Over Under
3 16


2013-14 Bowl Schedule - Results

Date Bowl Matchup Line, Total Score ATS

Saturday, Dec. 21 New Mexico Bowl Washington State vs. Colorado State +4, 64 ½ 48-45 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 21 Las Vegas Bowl Fresno State vs. USC -4 ½, 66 45-20 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Dec. 21 Idaho Potato Bowl Buffalo vs. San Diego State +1, 49 ½ 49-24 Underdog-Over

Saturday, Dec. 21 New Orleans Bowl Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette +1, 50 24-21 Underdog-Under

Monday, Dec. 23 Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl East Carolina vs. Ohio -14, 63 37-20 Favorite-Under

Tuesday, Dec. 24 Hawaii Bowl Boise State vs. Oregon State -4 ½, 67 ½ 38-23 Favorite-Under

Thursday, Dec. 26 Little Caesars Bowl Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green +7, 49 ½ 30-27 Underdog-Over

Thursday, Dec. 26 Poinsettia Bowl Utah State vs. Northern Illinois -2, 56 21-14 Favorite-Under

Friday, Dec. 27 Military Bowl Marshall vs. Maryland -2 ½, 65 31-20 Favorite-Under

Friday, Dec. 27 Texas Bowl Syracuse vs. Minnesota +3 ½, 48 21-17 Underdog-Under

Friday, Dec. 27 Fight Hunger Bowl Brigham Young vs. Washington -5 ½, 65 ½ 31-16 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Dec. 28 Pinstripe Bowl Rutgers vs. Notre Dame -15, 53 ½ 29-16 Underdog-Under

Saturday, Dec. 28 Belk Bowl Cincinnati vs. North Carolina -3, 60 39-17 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Dec. 28 Russell Athletic Bowl Miami, Fl. vs. Louisville -5 ½, 53 ½ 36-9 Favorite-Under

Saturday, Dec. 28 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Michigan vs. Kansas State -7, 52 ½ 31-14 Favorite-Under

Monday, Dec. 30 Armed Forces Bowl Middle Tennessee vs. Navy -7, 57 ½ 24-6 Favorite-Under

Monday, Dec. 30 Music City Bowl Mississippi vs. Georgia Tech +2 ½, 56 25-17 Underdog-Under

Monday, Dec. 30 Alamo Bowl Oregon vs. Texas -15, 68 30-7 Favorite-Under

Monday, Dec. 30 Holiday Bowl Arizona State vs. Texas Tech +17, 72 37-23 Underdog-Under

Tuesday, Dec. 31 Independence Bowl Arizona vs. Boston College - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 31 Sun Bowl Virginia Tech vs. UCLA - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 31 Liberty Bowl Rice vs. Mississippi State - - -

Tuesday, Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A Bowl Duke vs. Texas A&M - - -

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Gator Bowl Nebraska vs. Georgia - - -

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Heart of Dallas Bowl UNLV vs. North Texas - - -

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Capital One Bowl Wisconsin vs. South Carolina - - -

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Outback Bowl Iowa vs. LSU - - -

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Rose Bowl Stanford vs. Michigan State - - -

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Fiesta Bowl Central Florida vs. Baylor - - -

Thursday, Jan. 2 Sugar Bowl Oklahoma vs. Alabama - - -

Friday, Jan. 3 Cotton Bowl Oklahoma State vs. Missouri - - -

Friday, Jan. 3 Orange Bowl Clemson vs. Ohio State - - -

Saturday, Jan. 4 BBVA Compass Bowl Vanderbilt vs. Houston - - -

Sunday, Jan. 5 GoDaddy.Com Bowl Arkansas State vs. Ball State - - -

Monday, Jan. 6 BCS Championship Florida State vs. Auburn - - -


**Winner listed in Red

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Advocare Bowl, Shreveport, 12/31
Two teams with great RBs; this is Boston College’s first bowl in three years, in Addazio’s first season. At one point, BC won eight bowl games in row, but they’ve now lost last three, scoring 14-13-13 points- Addazio won his only bowl 37-15 over Wyoming in New Mexico two years ago. Arizona is in its 5th bowl in last six years; they won 49-48 in LY’s New Mexico Bowl, their first under Rodriguez, who is 3-4 in bowl games. BC's Williams ran for 2,102 yards, became darkhouse Heisman candidate; Arizona’s Carey ran for 1,716 yards, so this will be old fashioned football, teams trying to run/stop run. Eagles won four of last five games to get here; they’re 3-1 as underdogs, allowed 34+ points in five of 12 games. Arizona lost three of last four games, got crushed in its rivalry game, and failed to cover last three tries as a favorite, after covering first four. Wildcats scored 33+ points in all seven wins; they’re 0-5 when scoring less than 33. Favorites covered six of last seven in this bowl game.

Sun Bowl, El Paso 12/31
UCLA lost four of last five bowls, getting waxed 49-26 by Baylor LY in Mora’s first bowl game- would expect much better effort here. Bruins have decisive edge in terms of experience on OL. UCLA is young talented team with no senior starters on OL/QB; they won four of last five games, routing USC in rivalry game for second year in row, are 5-1 vs spread when favored this year, 5-2 vs spread in any game with single digit spread. Hokies have senior QB playing behind inexperienced OL; Tech went 2-3 in last five games, covered two of three as an underdog- they scored less than 20 points in four of last eight games. Both teams won four of their six road games this year. Underdogs won last three Sun Bowls, covered six of last seven; Pac-12 teams won six of last eight bowls here, with disinterested USC getting spanked by Ga Tech LY. Virginia Tech is 3-2 in its last five bowls, splitting pair of OT decisions last two years; Beamer is 9-11 overall in bowls.

Liberty Bowl, Memphis, 12/31
Interesting contrast between (first-time) C-USA champ and lower-level SEC team. Rice is 3-2 as an underdog this year, but Manziel didn’t play in first half of A&M game-they won last four games, are 5-1 in games decided by 6 or less points. Mississippi State will have crowd edge in Memphis (SEC country), even though Rice plays Memphis in this stadium every other year; Bulldogs had to beat Arkansas (in OT) and upset Ole Miss just to be bowl eligible at 6-6. Owls are in back/back bowls for first time in over 50 years- they’re 2-1 in bowls since 1962, but played Sun Belt/MAC/service academy in those games, so lower level SEC squad is big step up in class. Bulldogs won four of last five bowls, are 2-1 in bowls under Mullen, beating Wake Forest 23-17 (-6.5) in Nashville two years ago. Both teams have very experienced OLs, Rice has experience edge at QB, though both QBs are better runners than passers. Underdogs covered five of previous seven bowls here. Eight of last nine Liberty Bowls were decided by 8 or less points.

Chick-fil-A Atlanta, 12/31
Favorites covered Texas A&M’s last five bowl games; Aggies won 33-22/41-13 in bowls last two years, routing Oklahoma LY, now in what could be Manziel’s last college game, Aggies will try to outscore Duke team that hasn’t won bowl game since 1960. Blue Devils were 34-all and had ball on Cincinnati 5-yard line with 1:20 left LY, fumbled, gave up 83-yard TD and pick-6, didn’t even cover as 9-point underdog, one of worst beats EVER, and it was Duke’s first bowl since ‘94. Blue Devils bounced back to go 10-3 this year, making bowls in consecutive seasons for first time ever- they’ve covered five of last six times they were underdog, winning seven of last eight games SU, after losing 58-55 at home to Pitt in September. Aggies hung 42 on Alabama and lost; their defense slipped this year- they lost two games this year when they scored 40+ points. Game is in a dome, so weather is no factor. Dogs covered six of last eight Chick-fil-A bowls, with ACC team winning three of last four against the SEC.




NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Advocare V100 Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Arizona Wildcats vs. Boston College Eagles (+7.5, 57)

Game to be played at Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana.

ADVOCARE V100 BOWL STORYLINES

1. All eyes will be on star running backs Andre Williams and Ka'Deem Carey as this New Year's Eve game in Shreveport, La., features two of the nation's top rushing attacks. Williams, who rushed for a Boston College-record 2,102 yards and 17 touchdowns, edged out Carey for the Doak Walker Award before finishing fourth in Heisman Trophy voting. Carey, a two-time All-American, also had 17 touchdowns while ranking fifth behind Williams in FBS play with 1,716 yards.

2. The Wildcats had a somewhat awkward finish to the regular season, losing three of their last four but making the one win memorable, pounding then-No. 5 Oregon 42-16 on Nov. 23. The luster of that victory was wiped away in a 58-21 loss to rival Arizona State the following week, which clinched the program's 15th straight season with at least five losses.

3. The Eagles used to make a living in bowl games, reaching 12 straight from 1999-2010 before two down years without an entry. The Wildcats are in a bowl game for the fifth time in the last six seasons.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Open Arizona -7 and jumped to -7.5. The total climbed from 57 to 58 points

WEATHER: Partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the high 40s with winds blowing east at 4 mph.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Wildcats' last five games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Eagles' last four bowl games.

ABOUT ARIZONA (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12, 5-7 ATS): While Carey is the star, quarterback B.J. Denker is a dual threat who can make the Wildcats' backfield nearly impossible to defend. Denker ranked seventh among FBS quarterbacks with 898 rushing yards and tied for third with 12 rushing touchdowns. However, it was Denker's ability to manage the passing game that often made the difference, as he had seven touchdown passes against one interception in Arizona's seven wins and seven touchdowns against six picks in its five losses.

ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE (7-5, 4-4 ACC, 7-5 ATS): The Eagles won four straight down the stretch for first-year head coach Steve Addazio before dropping the season finale at Syracuse on a late touchdown. The winning season and Williams' emergence as a national star turned the tide for a program that was mired in losing prior to Addazio's arrival. It also put a nice cap on the careers of a quality group of seniors, including Williams, quarterback Chase Rettig, B.C.'s all-time receiving yards leader Alex Amidon and record-setting kicker Nate Freese.


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NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Hyundai Sun Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Virginia Tech Hokies vs. UCLA Bruins (-7, 47)

Game played at Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, Texas.

HYUNDAI SUN BOWL STORYLINES

1. The Bruins, who play Virginia Tech in the Hyundai Sun Bowl on Dec. 31 in El Paso, Tex., have one of the top defensive ends in the nation in Anthony Barr and a talented sophomore quarterback in Brett Hundley, who must soon decide whether to enter the NFL Draft. But no player has generated more buzz than Myles Jack. The freshman linebacker added running back to his duties last month and totaled 267 yards and seven touchdowns in the final four games.

2. The Hokies weren’t a strong ground team before losing leading rusher Trey Edmunds to a fractured right tibia Nov. 30 in the regular-season finale against Virginia. Now they’ll have to lean on J.C. Coleman, who has carried the ball just 75 times for 262 yards this season, and possibly gamble with freshman Jerome Wright, who's yet to touch the ball.

3. Virginia Tech is dealing with a handful of other injuries that could impact the game, most notably to cornerback Kyle Fuller, who underwent surgery Nov. 19 to repair core muscle damage in his lower abdomen. Fuller, a first-team all-ACC pick last season, is hoping to play his final collegiate game alongside his younger brother, Kendall, a freshman defensive back for the Hokies.

TV: 2 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: UCLA opened -7 and has been bet up to as high as -7.5. The total moved from 47 to 47.5.

WEATHER: Clear skies and temperatures in the high 40s with winds blowing SW at 3 mph.

TRENDS:

* Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Bruins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Under is 9-4-1 in Hokies' last 14 games overall.
* Under is 6-2 in Bruins' last eight games in Decemb

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (8-4, 4-7-1 ATS): Logan Thomas hasn’t improved on his 2011 season when he was a second-team All-ACC selection, but the Hokies quarterback impressed enough this fall to earn an invitation to the Senior Bowl next month. Thomas continues to get dinged by interceptions, compiling 13 more this season to give him 39 over the last three years. He cleaned things up a bit during the last two months of the regular season, going without an interception in five of the final eight games.

ABOUT UCLA (9-3, 8-4 ATS): The Bruins are aiming for their first 10-win season since 2005, a year that also culminated with a victory in El Paso, Tex. Hundley has played a major role in UCLA’s outcomes this season, not only leading the Bruins in every passing category but also leading the team in rushing. He has been careful not to get too attached to a particular receiver, as both Shaquelle Evans (43 catches, 617 yards) and Devin Fuller (42-464) have taken turns leading the team in receiving.


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NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Autozone Liberty Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Rice Owls vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (-7, 50.5)

Game played at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee.

AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL STORYLINES

1. Rice picked up its first outright conference title since 1957 with a victory in the Conference-USA championship game and is headed to a bowl game in consecutive seasons for the second time in school history. The Owls’ reward for a strong season is a date with Mississippi State in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tenn., on Dec. 31. The Bulldogs needed to pull out overtime victories in their final two games to gain bowl eligibility.

2. Rice coach David Bailiff was named C-USA Coach of the year by his peers after guiding the Owls to the second 10-win season in school history and can set a record with an 11th triumph. Rice ended the season with four straight wins, including a 41-24 triumph over Marshall in the C-USA championship game, and will go after the Bulldogs defense with a strong running attack.

3. Mississippi State endured a particularly brutal regular-season schedule and counts its six losses against ranked teams Oklahoma State, Auburn, LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M and Alabama. Quarterback Dak Prescott returned late in the season-ending win over rival Mississippi after a two-game absence due to a nerve injury in his non-throwing shoulder and should be healthy for the bowl game.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Mississippi State opened -7.5 and has been bet down to -7. The total has come down from 51.5 to 50.5 points.

WEATHER: Clear skies and temperatures in the mid 40s with winds blowing south at 1 mph.

TRENDS:

* Owls are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
* Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Under is 5-0 in Owls last five neutral site games.
* Under is 6-1 in Bulldogs last seven games overall.

ABOUT RICE (10-3, 7-1 C-USA, 8-5 ATS): The Owls average 240.2 yards on the ground and Charles Ross ended up with 1,252 rushing yards despite missing a pair of games in the middle of the season. Quarterback Taylor McHargue finished second on the team in rushing and guided a passing attack that tied for the fewest interceptions in C-USA with nine. “We know we are in for a tremendous challenge, but that’s what is exciting about the season we have had,” Bailiff told the school’s website. “I know our players are excited to play a team from the SEC.”

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (6-6, 3-5 SEC, 7-5 ATS): Prescott led the team in passing (1,657 yards) and rushing (751) and came off the bench in the fourth quarter to lead the tying field-goal drive in regulation before diving into the end zone for the winning touchdown in overtime against Ole Miss. That score made the Bulldogs bowl eligible for the fourth straight season and eliminated questions about coach Dan Mullen’s job security. “We know how good we can be and we’re not going to take anything for granted,” Prescott told the Mississippi Press of the upcoming bowl game. “We’re just going to go out there, make each other better and push each other.”


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NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Chick Fil-A-Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Duke Blue Devils vs. Texas A&M Aggies (-11.5, 75)

Game played at the Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia.

CHICK FIL-A BOWL STORYLINES

1. Johnny Manziel could play his final collegiate game when Texas A&M meets Duke in the Chick-fil-A Bowl on New Year's Eve in Atlanta. Manziel, who burst onto the scene to become the first freshman to win the Heisman Trophy in 2012, finished fifth in the voting this season and said he will seek feedback from the NFL before declaring for the draft prior to the Jan. 15 deadline. If Manziel learns he may not be selected in the first round, he said he would probably return to Texas A&M.

2. Duke coach Dave Cutcliffe continues to turn around the program, which is making its second straight bowl appearance for the first time in school history. Most of the current Blue Devils got their feet wet in the postseason with a 48-34 loss to Cincinnati in the 2012 Belk Bowl, but sharing the stage with the Aggies is a far bigger step.

3. It is expected to be a high-scoring affair with the total betting line set at 73.5. Texas A&M is sixth in the nation in scoring at 43.6 points but 88th among the 123 FBS teams at 30.9 points allowed. Duke averages 31.6 points scored and 24.7 against, but struggled to stop the No. 2 scoring offense in its 45-7 loss to top-ranked Florida State in the ACC championship game on Dec. 7.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Texas A&M opened -13 and has been bet down to -11.5. The total has climbed from 72 to 75 points.

TRENDS:

* Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Aggies are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Bowl games.
* Over is 18-8-1 in Blue Devils' last 27 non-conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Aggies' last five bowl games.

ABOUT DUKE (10-3, 6-2 ACC, 10-3 ATS): The Blue Devils won the Coastal Division crown - their first championship of any kind since sharing the ACC title with Virginia in 1989 - by winning their final six regular-season conference contests before having their eight-game win streak halted by the Seminoles. Cutcliffe has enjoyed the luxury of a two-quarterback system featuring juniors Brandon Connette (62.1 completion percentage, 13 touchdowns, six interceptions), who has a team-leading 13 rushing touchdowns, and Anthony Boone (63.9, 10, 11, with four rushing TDs). Wide receiver Jamison Crowder (96 catches, 1,197 yards, seven touchdowns) was joined by linebacker Kelby Brown (second in the conference at 9.2 tackles per game), safety Jeremy Cash and cornerback Ross Cockrell on the All-ACC first team.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (8-4, 4-4 SEC, 5-7 ATS): Manziel recorded another strong season statistically by completing 69.1 percent of his passes with 33 touchdowns against 13 interceptions, but wasn't able to lead the Aggies to a victory over their four toughest opponents - Auburn, Alabama, Missouri or LSU. Manziel also rushed for a team-leading 686 yards and eight touchdowns, but did most of his damage throwing the ball to Mike Evans (65 catches, 1,322 yards, 12 touchdowns). The Aggies are 15-19 in bowl games after their 41-19 victory over Oklahoma in last season's Cotton Bowl and are making their fifth consecutive bowl appearance.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl betting: O/U record now 3-12-1 during bowl season

Following Navy's 24-6 victory over Middle Tennessee in the Armed Forces Bowl, the Under is on hot nine-game streak during bowl season.

The total closed 57.5 and finished well under that number, extending the sizzling bowl trend.

The run of Unders stretches back to the Poinsetta Bowl when Utah State knocked off Northern Illinois 21-14, finishing under the closing number of 55.5 on Dec. 26.

Coincidentally, the last game to finish over the total was the game that opened the Dec. 26 bowl matchups when Pitt defeated Bowling Green 30-27.

The current O/U bowl tally now stands 3-12-1 with Ole Miss and Georgia Tech now underway.


Since this article was written, the O/U bowl tally has moved to 3-15-1.

[StarDust Bum]

BOWL RECORD:

*****.............................10 - 4

DOUBLE PLAYS.............5 - 5

TRIPLE PLAYS...............2 - 3


Tuesday, December 31

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Arizona - 12:30 PM ET Boston College +7 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Boston College - Under 56.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Virginia Tech - 2:00 PM ET UCLA -7.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

UCLA - Under 47.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Rice - 4:00 PM ET Rice +7.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Mississippi State - Under 50 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Duke - 8:00 PM ET Duke +12 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Texas A&M - Under 75 500 DOUBLE PLAY


Am taking the UNDER until things change.........the sides are SOLID........

[StarDust Bum]

Parlay Wager - 1 Parlay of 8 Teams

CFB - 12/31/13
[239] BOSTON COLLEGE +7½ 1.91
Game Date: 12-31-2013 09:30:00

CFB - 12/31/13
[240] TOTAL (BOSTON COLLEGE vrs ARIZONA U) u56½ 1.91
Game Date: 12-31-2013 09:30:00

CFB - 12/31/13
[242] UCLA -7½ 1.91
Game Date: 12-31-2013 11:00:00

CFB - 12/31/13
[242] TOTAL (VIRGINIA TECH vrs UCLA) u47 1.91
Game Date: 12-31-2013 11:00:00

CFB - 12/31/13
[244] RICE +7 1.91
Game Date: 12-31-2013 13:00:00

CFB - 12/31/13
[244] TOTAL (MISSISSIPPI ST vrs RICE) u50½ 1.91
Game Date: 12-31-2013 13:00:00

CFB - 12/31/13
[245] DUKE +13 1.91
Game Date: 12-31-2013 17:00:00

CFB - 12/31/13
[246] TOTAL (DUKE vrs TEXAS A&M) u75 1.91
Game Date: 12-31-2013 17:00:00

$10 To Win $1754.46


LETS HIT IT BIG !!

[Kaptain]

gl today BUM........have a good/safe New Years EVE.........thanks.........

where's the BOLD Print.........Kaptain can show you how to get back on track with the BOLD/Size/Color when you type your plays in..........

I miss the POD's in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

Thanks Kapt........i've tried what you said.....and just don't know what am doing wrong....and yes i've missed it also........one day when its slow......lets try it again....

HAPPY NEW YEARS Bradda & The Rest of the Gang Here....

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Bowl Report - Part II

December 28, 2013


Gator Bowl
Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (8-4 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)
Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
Time/TV: 1:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Line: Bulldogs (-9, 60.5)
Venue: EverBank Field
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Haven’t we done this before? Nebraska and Georgia met in the Capital One Bowl on year ago, with Georgia winning 45-31 behind five touchdown passes from Aaron Murray. Despite being just one year removed from that meeting – this game will have a much different feel. Neither of the returning QB’s from last year’s game will play here as Georgia’s QB Murray suffered a torn ACL in the 2nd to last game while Nebraska’s QB Taylor Martinez has not been fully healthy all season (just one appearance in Big Ten play). Nebraska is another Big Ten team that can’t wait to get back on the field. The Huskers lost their final game of the season at home on Black Friday to Iowa, 38-17. After the game, head coach Bo Pelini had to endure questions from the media on if he’d be fired or not. It seems that Nebraska will stick with Pelini, at least for one more game, before heading to the offseason. Nebraska finished 3-3 down the stretch. They lost at Minnesota by 11, vs. Michigan State by 13, and vs. Iowa by 21. Wins over that stretch included home vs. Northwestern by 3, at Michigan by 4, and at Penn State by 3 in overtime – meaning Nebraska came dangerously close to a complete second half breakdown this season.

Redshirt freshman Tommy Armstrong, Jr. will get the start at QB here and he’ll need to throw well for the Huskers to win. He should be ready for action after a late-season ankle injury derailed him after he took over for an injured Taylor Martinez back in October. Armstrong completes just 53 percent of his passes and has seven TD and seven INT. If Armstrong struggles, Nebraska could turn to Ron Kellogg III, who started the finale vs. Iowa, but struggled in hitting 19-of-37 passes for 199 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. RB Ameer Abdullah has been the only constant for this offense. He rushed for 1,568 yards and eight scores this season, hitting the 100-yard mark in all but two games this season. He did that despite Nebraska shifting around its offensive line all season long after a string of injuries.

Speaking of injuries, no team in the nation had it worse than the Georgia Bulldogs. Six starters on offense suffered torn ACL’s this season (!) and high hopes of a national title went quickly out the window after a loss to Clemson in the first week of the season. Credit the Bulldogs for not quitting on the season as they won four of the final five games – including an overtime win over in-state rival Georgia Tech in the final week of the season. QB Hutson Mason will get his 2nd career start here in place of Murray. Mason has completed 64.8% of his passes for 648 yards with 4 TD and 2 INT in a little over two games of work. The offense hasn’t missed much with him under center as he led the team to 59 points and 41 points in his two games that he commandeered the offense. Star RB Gurley battled injuries throughout the year (missed three full games) but should be fully rested and healthy for the bowl game. He still finished with 903 rush yards (6.2 YPC), 344 receiving yards, and 15 total touchdowns (four TD in the finale against GA Tech). He finished with 125 rush yards and a score last year against Nebraska and could have another big day against this struggling Nebraska D.

Georgia’s defense lost a ton of talent to the NFL after last season and it showed early. They allowed 33 PPG through the first seven weeks but showed great improvement over the final five – surrendering just 23.4 PPG. Pelini and the Huskers would like nothing more than to close this season out on a high note with a win here over Georgia, but they’ll have to limit their mistakes. Nebraska finished minus-12 for the year in turnover margin, better than only three teams nationally. Georgia has faced three Big Ten teams in the last five Bowl games – going 2-1 SU & ATS in those games (only loss was a 3-point defeat to Michigan State in the 2011 Outback Bowl. Nebraska is 0-3 SU & ATS in the last three Bowl games, losing the last two to SEC schools.

Capital One Bowl
Wisconsin Badgers (9-3 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
Time/TV: 1:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Badgers (-1, 49.5)
Venue: Florida Citrus Stadium
Location: Orlando, FL

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Both of these squads finished as the third selection out of their respective conferences. Wisconsin’s loss in the final week of the regular season prevented them from being BCS Bowl eligible while South Carolina was behind Auburn & Alabama. No Big Ten team wants to get on the field more than the Badgers, who delivered their worst performance of the season in their final game against Penn State. Their stellar defense picked a bad game to have an off day as PSU racked up 465 yards and 31 points, including 339 pass yards and 4 TD from freshman QB Hackenberg. This UW defense finished 6th in rush defense, total defense, and scoring defense, and 12th against the pass. Seven of their 12 opponents were held to 10 points or fewer and not one surpassed 32 points. Offensively this unit is led by the duo of James White and Melvin Gordon at running back. Both earned 2nd Team Big Ten honors and form the No. 8 run game (283 YPG) in the nation. The speedy duo helped the Badgers average an FBS-best 8.3 yards per carry outside the tackles, and both rushed for more than 1,300 yards and combined for 25 touchdowns. Wisconsin will try to get its running attack going early in this game and take some of the pressure off of QB Stave – who did not play well to close out the season. Stave threw a career-high three interceptions against PSU and practice reports indicate that Wisconsin is giving reps to JUCO-transfer Tanner McEvoy in case Stave underperforms again.

This offense will face one of their toughest tests of the season against this fierce South Carolina defensive front. The Gamecocks ranked 32nd against the run and 18th in total defense despite playing a buzz saw of a schedule in the SEC. Just one of South Carolina’s opponents scored more than 28 points (Georgia back on September 7th) and the Gamecocks held their final five opponents (Missouri, Mississippi State, Florida, Coastal Carolina, and Clemson) to just 16.2 PPG. They won those five games by a combined 181-81 margin. The star of the show for the Gamecocks was supposed to be defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Nagging injuries and constant double-teams left him with a pedestrian season. The real stars were QB Connor Shaw and RB Mike Davis. Shaw continued to show the country why he's one of the most underrated performers. Shaw battled injuries and showed up for the Gamecocks when it mattered most. He finished the year with 2,135 yards with 21 touchdowns to just one interception. Davis, who is as much a home run threat as a legitimate between-the-tackles bruiser, rushed for 1,134 yards and 11 touchdowns in his first year as a starter.

South Carolina’s resume is stronger as it boasts wins against Central Florida (AAC Champ) Missouri (SEC runner-up), and Clemson (playing in the Orange Bowl). Wisconsin lost its two marquee games this season: @Arizona State in a highly controversial ending and @Ohio State by seven points. Despite not returning to the Rose Bowl for the fourth consecutive season, all signs point to the Badgers being highly motivated for this game. For one, they lost all three of those Rose Bowls and they have a strong group of seniors (Jared Abbrederis, James White, and Chris Borland to name a few) that want to end their collegiate career with a Bowl victory. South Carolina has won back-to-back Bowl games, both against Big Ten opponents (Nebraska in 2011, Michigan in 2012).

Outback Bowl
Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. LSU Tigers (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
Time/TV: 1:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Tigers (-7, 49)
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Location: Tampa, FL

Iowa bounced back nicely after a dismal 4-8 finish in 2012. Many doubted Kirk Ferentz’s team in the preseason and few had the team pegged as the 2nd best in the Legends division. Stout defensive play and a strong rushing attack led the team to an 8-4 finish, including three straight victories to close out the season. Their four losses came against Northern Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin – who boast a combined record of 45-6. The Hawkeyes' success starts on defense, where they ranked in the top 20 nationally against both the pass and the run (7th overall in yards allowed). Everything revolves around a standout trio of senior linebackers in James Morris, Anthony Hitchens and Christian Kirksey, who combined for nearly 300 tackles and more than 30 tackles for loss. Rushing yards don’t come easy against this team as opponents average just 3.5 YPC and have scored just 5 rushing touchdowns against this Iowa defense all season long.

LSU will be dependent on running the ball as the Tigers’ starting QB all season, Zach Mettenberger, injured his knee and will miss this game. Freshman Anthony Jennings will get the start under center for LSU. He has attempted just 10 passes in relief duty this season, completing six for 99 yards with one TD. He has two of the nation’s top receivers to throw to in Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. Both have over 1,100 receiving yards this season with 18 combined touchdowns. Still, expect LSU to lean on a running attack led by RB’s Hill & Magee. Hill (1,185 rush yards) averages 6.8 yards per carry with 14 touchdowns while Magee (614 yards) averages 7.8 YPC with eight touchdowns. This LSU defense lost a ton of talent to the NFL last season and it has not been the dominant unit that we’ve come to expect from LSU. It’s a big testament to defensive coordinator John Chavis that he has this team ranked 20th in total defense and 31st in scoring defense. This defense had its ups (21 points allowed to Auburn, 10 points allowed to Texas A&M) and its downs (44 points allowed to Georgia, 38 points allowed to Alabama), but overall is a pretty stout unit.

Iowa’s offense is far from explosive and LSU’s defense has the talent edge over the Hawkeyes O. The Hawks finished 81st in yards per game and 74th in points per game. The RB trio of Weisman, Bullock, and Canzeri combined for 1,852 rush yards (4.7 YPC) and 10 TD. First year QB Rudock finished with 2,281 pass yards (60.2%) with 18 TD and 12 INT. He has also shown the ability to extend plays with his legs (223 rush yards and 5 scores). LSU had much higher hopes than the Outback Bowl this season while Iowa is thrilled to go Bowling again after a one-year hiatus – so motivation will be a key factor in this game. LSU has dropped three of its last four Bowl games. Iowa has won three of its last four Bowl games, including a 21-point win over SEC South Carolina in the 20089 version of the Outback Bowl. These two last met in 2005 in the Capital One Bowl, with Iowa winning 30-25.

Rose Bowl
Michigan State Spartans (12-1 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) vs. Stanford Cardinal (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)
Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
Time/TV: 5:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Cardinal (-4, 41)
Venue: Rose Bowl
Location: Pasadena, CA

The 100th Rose Bowl in 2014 looks more like a 1950’s style Rose Bowl as it features two suffocating defense and two power-style offenses. The first thing that jumps out about this matchup is the similar styles. Much like Stanford’s 20-14 win against Wisconsin in the Rose last year, points could be at a premium. Both Stanford (18.6 ppg) and Michigan State (12.7) allow fewer than 20 points per game, and the Spartans lead the nation in total defense. Neither team has allowed more than 28 points in a game this year; both allowed 28 on two occasions. Stanford will play in its second consecutive Rose Bowl after a definitive win over Arizona State in the Pac-12 Championship game. The Cardinal had +206 yards and had three touchdowns of 22+ yards. Stanford’s stout defense held ASU to just 311 yards and QB Kelly to just 173 pass yards and one TD.

There’s nothing sexy about this team as they use a power-run style behind RB Gaffney. Gaffney has 1,613 rush yards (5.3 YPC) and 20 rush TD this season (rush TD in every game but one this season). QB Hogan manages games well, but the passing attack is where this team struggles. Hogan has completed 61.4% of his passes this year with 20 TD and just 9 INT. He had just 14 TD in conference play and that includes a 5 TD performance against lowly Cal. MSU will be by far the best defense that Stanford faces this season. Rushing yards won’t be easy to come by against the top-ranked rushing defense (80 rush YPG allowed) and Hogan will be forced to make plays with his arm.

Michigan State was able to overcome an uncharacteristically poor performance from its defense to win the Big Ten Championship against previously undefeated Ohio State. OSU was able to gain 273 rush yards on 6.8 YPC, but the Spartans forced a number of key stops as OSU was just 1-of-10 on third down and 0-of-2 on 4th down. Offensively QB Cook passed for a career-high 304 yards and three touchdowns and RB Langford rushed for over 100 yards for the eighth consecutive game and sealed the game with a 26-yard rush TD with 2:16 remaining to seal the victory. Cook made huge strides this year and has developed into one of the top QB’s in the conference with 20 TD and just 5 INT this season. A balanced offense is the perfect complement to a suffocating defense and allowed the Spartans to win each of their nine Big Ten games by 10 points or more this season.

MSU leads the nation in fewest yards allowed (248.2 ypg), rush yards allowed (80.8 ypg) and third-down conversions allowed (27.7 percent), and ranks second in pass efficiency defense and fourth in points allowed. This is Stanford’s fourth straight BCS game and second straight Rose Bowl. The Spartans will play in their first BCS Bowl and haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since 1988, when they beat USC 20-17. The teams’ only common opponent is Notre Dame. The Irish handed Michigan State its only loss of the season, 17-13 on Sept. 21., but fell 27-20 at Stanford on Nov. 30. Stanford has won its last 10 games against ranked opponents, with the last loss coming two years ago in the Fiesta Bowl to Oklahoma State.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Breakdown - Part IV

December 30, 2013


It's the most wonderful time of the year for college football betting fans, as there are 35 bowl games on tap to break down and find winners in. Today, we're taking a look at some of the best bowl games of the year, continuing with the six games played on New Year's Day.

Heart of Dallas Bowl - UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. North Texas Mean Green
Wednesday, January 1st, 12:00 p.m. ET
Opening Line: North Texas -6 ½

These two teams combined to win just six games last season, but they both made it to bowl games this year, which likely saved the job for both of their head coaches. Neither team has played in all that many bowl games in their histories, and the Mean Green are trying to win their first bowl game outside of the New Orleans Bowl in their history. Neither team has ever played in a New Year's Day bowl game, and neither could have ever imagined playing in one at the outset of the year either.

Gator Bowl - Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Wednesday, January 1st, 12:00 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Georgia -9

Last season at the Capital One Bowl, Georgia was favored by nine over Nebraska, and 364 days later, the script is eerily exactly the same. QB Aaron Murray and QB Taylor Martinez aren't here though, which makes the game a lot different than it was when these two shot it out in Orlando. Head Coach Bo Pelini could be coaching for his job in Lincoln, knowing that a bad loss would probably see him canned.

Capital One Bowl - Wisconsin Badgers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Wednesday, January 1st, 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Wisconsin -1 ½

The Badgers aren't going to the Rose Bowl again this year, which is a big switch from what we are used to seeing. They had a great season and are almost shockingly favored over the Gamecocks, who were fortunate to go 10-2 this year. Remember that South Carolina probably should have lost to both UCF and Missouri, and an 8-4 team would look a heck of a lot worse than this 10-2 team looks at the moment. QB Connor Shaw only threw one interception all season long for a South Carolina team which has played awfully well of late in these Sunshine State bowl games on New Year's Day.

Outback Bowl - Iowa Hawkeyes vs. LSU Tigers
Wednesday, January 1st, 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening Line: LSU -7

The Bayou Bengals are favored in this one over what probably amounted to be the fifth or sixth best team in the Big Ten this year, but they have a big problem to deal with. LSU is playing without QB Zach Mettenberger, who legitimately could be one of the top five quarterbacks taken in this year's NFL Draft. QB Anthony Jennings, who is clearly the future of the team, is going to be making his first start, and he has only thrown 10 collegiate passes. Nothing that the Hawkeyes did was all that pretty this year, but the win on the road against Nebraska was definitively the win which got them here to the Sunshine State for a bowl game.

Rose Bowl - Stanford Cardinal vs. Michigan State Spartans
Wednesday, January 1st, 5:00 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Stanford -6 ½

The Cardinal are back in the Rose Bowl for a second straight season after winning it last year, and they are looking forward to a second straight win in the Granddaddy of them All. Michigan State has shocked the world to reach this point though, and this team looks nothing like the club which struggled to get anything going against the likes of Western Michigan and South Florida at the outset of the campaign. These two teams have only played once in a bowl game in their history, and that was back in the Sun Bowl nearly two decades ago. This is the best bowl game outside of the National Championship Game for our money!

Fiesta Bowl - UCF Knights vs. Baylor Bears
Wednesday, January 1st, 8:30 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Baylor -16 ½

This is the first BCS bowl game for either of these teams in their history, and it is also the only bowl game with a point spread beyond 16 this year. The Bears easily had the best offense in the nation, but this is going to be one of their sterner tests of the year against one of the most underrated teams in the country in UCF. If the Knights look anywhere near as good as Louisville did against Miami in the Russell Athletic Bowl, this could be the upset of the bowl season. If not, the Bears could romp to a 40-point win.

[StarDust Bum]

Fiesta Bowl Preview

December 31, 2013


The Fiesta Bowl will close down the busy New Year’s Day bowl schedule and while the spread is the largest of any game in the bowl season, there will be a lot to watch in a matchup between Central Florida and Baylor, two programs that have made a dramatic rise in the last decade. Here is a look at both teams and what to look for Wednesday night the Fiesta Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl
Matchup: Central Florida Knights vs. Baylor Bears
Venue: University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Date: Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Time/TV: 8:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Baylor -16½, Over/Under 68

While this matchup does not feature traditional powers and may garner the lowest national TV draw of the major bowls, there should not be a lack of entertainment value on the field. Baylor has proven to be one of the most exciting teams in the nation with eye-popping statistics on the season, posting over 625 yards per game on 7.6 yards per play to lead the nation. The Bears also have a great defensive numbers but the schedule has certainly come into question.

Playing in the American Athletic Conference allowed Central Florida to play a relatively soft slate this season as well but non-conference games with Penn State and South Carolina added some heft to the schedule. It took a wild comeback, but the Knights are in this game because they won at Louisville, the overwhelming favorite in the conference this season. Through the rest of the conference schedule Central Florida had some close calls but they finished 8-0 to claim this spot.

Both coaches have interesting storylines with George O’Leary in his 10th season in Orlando. O’Leary is an interesting character that was briefly hired as the head coach at Notre Dame after posting success at Georgia Tech before it was revealed that he had lied on his resume. After a short stint as an assistant in the NFL he has found a home with the Knights, with this being the fourth 10-win season in the last seven years after going 0-11 in his first season with the team.

Art Briles surprised many by opting to take over at Baylor after the 2007 season after a quick rise to prominence in four years at Houston. He has transformed Baylor from being a continual doormat to being a national contender, getting the Bears to 10 wins in 2011 and flirting with the national title conversation this season while delivering a Big XII championship. His success has also made him a potential candidate for the upcoming opening in Austin.

The quarterbacks also will get a lot of press leading up to this game as both players emerged out of national anonymity to post brilliant seasons. Forced to follow-up epic seasons from Robert Griffin III and Nick Florence, Bryce Petty wound up finishing seventh in the Heisman voting this season despite completing just seven passes in 2012. Petty should eclipse 4,000 passing yards for his junior season in this game and he has thrown 30 touchdown passes while being intercepted just twice.

The casual college football fan may not have heard of Central Florida junior Blake Bortles until this season as a very solid statistical season last year in a 10-4 campaign for the Knights did not get noticed by many. After a great season this year that was mostly overlooked nationally Bortles will be on the radar in April as a serious NFL draft prospect should he opt to enter the draft. Bortles completed over 68 percent of his passes this season and while his numbers can’t match the glowing statistics Petty posted, he has the size and arm strength coveted at the next level and proved to be a clutch performer in several close games this season.

The strength of schedule is a conversation piece for both teams this season. By most measures Baylor played the tougher overall slate with the strength of the Big XII and with Buffalo turning out to be a solid team this season though the non-conference slate was not daunting. The 7-0 start for Baylor certainly deserved some scrutiny but the Bears delivered blowout wins over Oklahoma and Texas Tech before being on the wrong end of a blowout at Oklahoma State.

Central Florida won at Penn State early in the year in what at the time looked like a big win and then nearly rallied back against South Carolina at home after blowing an early lead. The AAC did not offer the overall depth that the Big XII featured but the win at Louisville is likely a higher caliber win than anything Baylor produced this season, especially after seeing the Cardinals dominate in bowl action last weekend.

Baylor struggled the most in the games where the running game for the Bears was slowed down and Central Florida was very tough against the run this season, allowing just 116 yards per game on 3.9 yards per rush. Baylor actually only allowed 3.3 yards per rush this season but the statistics are a bit skewed with the huge leads the Bears built in many games.

Both teams should be motivated for this opportunity as the first BCS bowl game ever for either team. Fan support may be limited on both sides however as Baylor returned over 5,000 of the required 17,500 ticket allotment while UCF reportedly returned more than 10,000 of those tickets despite one of the largest enrollments in the nation, with the school looking at heavy financial losses.

AAC Bowl Results: The AAC has gone 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS so far in bowl action. Rutgers lost but covered as a heavy underdog against Notre Dame. Cincinnati and Louisville were involved in blowout bowl games with the Bearcats losing badly to North Carolina and Louisville dominating Miami in matchups with the ACC. Houston will be the fifth bowl team to play from the AAC facing Vanderbilt in the Compass Bowl.

Big XII Bowl Results: Kansas Sate delivering a win and cover in a 31-14 victory over Michigan Saturday for the debut for the Big XII in the postseason. Texas was blasted 30-7 by Oregon in Mack Brown's finale but Texas Tech made up for that loss with a 37-23 win over Arizona State as a 16-point underdog in the Holiday Bowl. Texas and Texas Tech play Monday while Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will play Thursday and Friday this week.

Line Movement: The line opened at -17 as the largest spread of the bowl season but it has fallen to -16½ at most outlets. This game also features the highest total of the bowl season, opening at 68 and climbing to 69½ and even hitting 70 at some outlets.

Central Florida Historical Trends: The Knights have only been an underdog of 10 or more points three times the last four seasons, covering in all three instances. UCF is 8-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2007 while going 18-10 ATS as an underdog at any price in that span. Central Florida is 2-3 S/U but 3-2 ATS in five bowl games under O’Leary, winning and covering in each of the last two bowl games including the modest upset over Georgia in the 2010 Liberty Bowl.

Baylor Historical Trends: Baylor was an ATS darling this season, finishing 9-3 ATS on the season, a mark that was 8-1 ATS in the first nine games of the season for a team that became very popular to back with high scoring potential. After the Bears were blown out against Illinois in the 2010 Texas Bowl, the first postseason trip under Briles, Baylor has won and covered the last two seasons in bowl action, scoring 116 points in the process, although also allowing 82 points. Since 2000 Baylor is 35-15 ATS as a favorite and the Bears are on a 15-4 ATS run as a double-digit favorite going back to early 2010.

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Where the action is: New Year's bowl line moves


The first day of the new year means bowl action really starts heating up. Wednesday has a pair of BCS bowl games as well as four other bowls. No less than eight Top 25 teams will be taking the field across the nation.

We talk to Mike Perry, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag, about the action coming in on all the bowl games that New Year's Day has to offer.

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Georgia Bulldogs - Open: -9.5, Move: -9, Move: -8.5

Both the Huskers and Bulldogs have had to endure injuries this season. The teams met in the Capital One Bowl one year ago with Georgia trumping Nebraska by a score of 45-31. Each team will be starting backup quarterbacks this time around and the Bulldogs opened as favorites.

"On December 19, got sharp bet on Nebraska +9.5, so moved to +9," Perry tells Covers. "Last Thursday, another sharp play came on the Huskers, so moved to +8.5, where it still stands. Fifty-five percent of cash is on Nebraska."

UNLV Rebels vs. North Texas Mean Green - Open: -6, Move: -6.5, Move: -7

In what is probably the least-interesting bowl game on New Year's Day, sharp action has been fairly steady on the Mean Green of North Texas. It's been a year of change for both programs, as the two combined for just six wins all of last season, but combined for 15 this time around.

"This is pretty much a Snooze Year's Day Bowl game unless you have a bet on it," states Perry. "December 11th got sharp play on North Texas -6, so moved to -6.5. On Christmas Eve, we got another sharp play on the favorite so now using -7. Sixty-two percent of money is backing UNLV."

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. LSU Tigers - Open: -8

This line has yet to move with the Tigers as the favorites. This despite quarterback Zach Mettenberger out with an ACL tear.

Iowa heads into the Outback Bowl hot as it rides a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS), including victories over both Michigan and Nebraska.

"A line where oddsmakers set it perfect, as it opened LSU -8 and still remains at that number," says Perry. " A couple of injury issues for both teams as Iowa QB Jake Rudock is probable (knee) and LSU WR Odell Beckham Jr is also probable (hip). Sixty-two percent of money is on the Tigers."

Wisconsin Badgers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks - Open: +2.5, Move: -1.5, Move: +1.5

The Badgers missed out on a fourth-straight trip to the Rose Bowl as they finished second in the Leaders Division. The Badgers were one of the top bets in college football as they finished the season 9-2-1 ATS.

South Carolina star Jadeveon Clowney could be playing in his last game for the program as he is likely destined to be a top-five pick in the NFL draft. The Gamecocks are also a hot team, riding a five-game winning streak and is 4-1 ATS during that stretch.

"A lot of movement on this game," Perry said. "Opened Wisconsin -2.5, and moved all the way to South Carolina -1.5, before going back in the Badgers favor to the current number of -1.5. Sixty percent of cash on the Gamecocks."

Stanford Cardinal vs. Michigan State Spartans - Open: +3.5, Move: +6.5

The 100th edition of the Rose Bowl pits two of the best defensive units in the country. That said, the Spartans will have to make due without their defensive captain as LB Max Bullough is out because of a suspension.

The Cardinal play in their fourth-straight BCS bowl game and defeated Wisconsin in last season's game in Pasadena. Action is all on the Cardinal in this one as their backers have moved the number since post.

"Big line move in the 'Granddaddy of Them All' as Stanford has gone from -3.5 to -6.5," Perry said. "Quite a few wiseguys like the Cardinal to not only win their second-straight Rose Bowl, but cover it as well. Not a big decision on this game at all, as 53 percent of cash is on Stanford."

Central Florida Knights vs. Baylor Bears - Open: -17, Move: -16.5

Both programs make their BCS Bowl debuts in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Wednesday night. Baylor and its high-octane offense leads the country in scoring at 53.3 points per game. Central Florida has the 13th ranked defense in the country, but it will be a tall order to shut down this offense.

Sharp action on the Knights moved the line early, but the majority of bettors don't give them a chance to cover the gaudy spread.

"We got small sharp play on UCF +17, so moved to +16.5," he said. "Central Florida already shocked the college football world once when they beat Louisville on the road. They will have Baylor's attention because of this feat, so dont expect an aftershock here. Only 34 percent of cash thinks UCF can cover the big spread."

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NCAAF BCS Bowls biggest betting mismatches


With the BCS Bowl schedule opening with the Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Day, we have a special edition of our biggest betting mismatches looking at the five big BCS bowl games, uncovering some of the underlying mismatches to help you get the edge.

Rose Bowl

Stanford Cardinal vs. Michigan State Spartans (+6.5, 42.5)

Cardinal’s yards per play vs. Spartans’ lack of punch

Stanford’s offense is one of the most efficient in the country, scoring 33.2 points per game and putting up 6.3 yards per play – tied for 18th in the land. The Cardinal anchor their offense with the run and will take advantage of that big hole left in the middle of the MSU defense by Max Bullough’s suspension.

If the Spartans defense buckles, the offense may not have enough to climb out of a hole. Michigan State’s scoring attack was off and on all season. The Green and White appeared to be finding their way in November but then mustered only 14 points in a win over Minnesota. Michigan State averaged only 5.2 yards per play and ranked among the bottom of the Big Ten in big plays.

Fiesta Bowl

Central Florida Knights vs. Baylor Bears (-16.5, 70.5)

Knights’ slowed-down offense vs. Bears’ high-octane offense

The Knights best chance of slowing down Baylor’s explosive offense is to keep them off the field at the Fiesta Bowl. Central Florida has a cool and calculated offense, running only 68.3 plays per game and burning through 31:58 of time of possession. Despite that slow-motion pace, UCF still put up 33.2 points per game.

The Bears’ up-tempo attack ranked tops in yards (625.6 yards per game) and points (53.2 points per game) but worked quickly, using up just 27:40 of clock per game – 107th in the FBS. Baylor was dominated in time of possession in its loss to Oklahoma State, with the Pokes control 35:23 of clock. If UCF dictates the pace, that massive spread could be tough to cover.

Sugar Bowl

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-15.5, 51.5)

Sooners’ dual-threat Trevor Knight vs. Crimson Tide’s weakness to running QB

Alabama doesn’t have many chinks in its armor, however, the Tide have been exposed by running quarterbacks this season. They allowed Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel sprint for 98 yards and watched Auburn QB Nick Marshall put up 99 yards and a score on the ground in the Iron Bowl.

Mike Herndon of AL.com made note of the Tide’s weakness and says Nick Saban is well aware of the damage OU dual-threat Trevor Knight can do. Knight, who is splitting snaps with fellow QB Blake Bell, has rushed for 438 yards – picking up more than seven yards per carry. Knight is nursing a hand injury but is expected to play in the Sugar Bowl.

Orange Bowl

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Clemson Tigers (+2.5, 69.5)

Buckeyes’ battered defense vs. Tigers’ scoring options

The Buckeyes defense fell apart down the stretch, giving up 75 points in the final two games of the season, including 41 points to rival Michigan. Ohio State’s pass defense was exposed for 451 yards versus the Wolverines and 304 yards versus MSU, and limp into the Orange Bowl with significant injuries in the stop unit, most notably cornerback Bradley Roby.

Clemson’s connection of Tahj Boyd and Sammy Watkins is the best the nation, but the Tigers have plenty of other options on offense. Six-foot-5 WRs Martavis Bryant and Mike Williams are tough covers as is speedy Adam Humphries. Tight end Stanton Seckinger is also an option at 6-foot-4. Including Watkins, who caught 10 TDs, 13 different players caught passes for six points this season.

BCS Championship

Auburn Tigers vs. Florida State Seminoles (-8.5, 67.5)

Tigers’ home runs vs. Seminoles’ punt coverage

The Seminoles haven’t punted much this season, kicking the ball away only 36 times – second fewest in the country. Florida State, however, didn’t hold its ground covering those punts, allowing opponents to run back for an average of 18.27 yards – worst in the ACC and third worst in the FBS. Auburn is notorious for its big plays on special teams and can put the FSU Goliath on its heels with a big play on special teams.

The Tigers have one of the most dangerous return threats in college football in Tre Mason. Auburn was second in the SEC in punt returns at 11.76 yards per punt and was fourth in kickoff return yardage at 24.06. The Tigers have a taste for the big plays on offense as well, with eight plays of 50-plus yards, five plays of 60 or more, and four plays for 70-plus yards this season.