The Bum's College Football + Bowl Games POD'S- Trends- Stats !

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NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Trend Report
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Saturday, December 21

2:00 PM
COLORADO STATE vs. WASHINGTON STATE
Colorado State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado State's last 7 games
Washington State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington State's last 6 games

3:30 PM
SOUTHERN CAL vs. FRESNO STATE
Southern Cal is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Cal's last 7 games
Fresno State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Fresno State's last 7 games

5:30 PM
BUFFALO vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
Buffalo is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Buffalo's last 12 games
San Diego State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego State's last 5 games

9:00 PM
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE vs. TULANE
Louisiana-Lafayette is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tulane
Louisiana-Lafayette is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Tulane is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Louisiana-Lafayette


Monday, December 23

2:00 PM
OHIO vs. EAST CAROLINA
Ohio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of East Carolina's last 7 games
East Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games


Tuesday, December 24

8:00 PM
OREGON STATE vs. BOISE STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon State's last 6 games
Oregon State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boise State's last 6 games


Thursday, December 26

6:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BOWLING GREEN
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Bowling Green's last 11 games
Bowling Green is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

9:30 PM
UTAH STATE vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Utah State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah State's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 6 games
Northern Illinois is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games


Friday, December 27

2:30 PM
MARSHALL vs. MARYLAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Marshall's last 5 games
Marshall is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Maryland's last 5 games
Maryland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

6:00 PM
SYRACUSE vs. MINNESOTA
No trends available
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games

9:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. BYU
Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
BYU is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
BYU is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games


Saturday, December 28

12:00 PM
RUTGERS vs. NOTRE DAME
Rutgers is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Rutgers's last 5 games
Notre Dame is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Notre Dame's last 6 games

3:20 PM
CINCINNATI vs. NORTH CAROLINA
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of North Carolina's last 12 games
North Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

6:45 PM
MIAMI vs. LOUISVILLE
Miami is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisville's last 5 games
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

10:15 PM
MICHIGAN vs. KANSAS STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan's last 5 games
Michigan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games


Monday, December 30

11:45 AM
MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. NAVY
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Middle Tennessee's last 15 games
Middle Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Navy4-1-1 SU in its last 6 games

3:15 PM
MISSISSIPPI vs. GEORGIA TECH
Mississippi is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Georgia Tech's last 8 games
Georgia Tech is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

6:45 PM
TEXAS vs. OREGON
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas's last 7 games
Texas is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Oregon is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games
Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

10:15 PM
TEXAS TECH vs. ARIZONA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Texas Tech's last 8 games
Texas Tech is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Arizona State's last 15 games


Tuesday, December 31

12:30 PM
BOSTON COLLEGE vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston College's last 5 games
Boston College is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

2:00 PM
VIRGINIA TECH vs. UCLA
Virginia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Virginia Tech is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of UCLA's last 9 games
UCLA is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

4:00 PM
MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. RICE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Mississippi State's last 7 games
Rice is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

8:00 PM
DUKE vs. TEXAS A&M
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Duke's last 6 games
Duke is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Texas A&M is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Texas A&M's last 12 games


Wednesday, January 1

12:00 PM
UNLV vs. NORTH TEXAS
UNLV is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UNLV's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Texas's last 8 games
North Texas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

12:00 PM
NEBRASKA vs. GEORGIA
Nebraska is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
Nebraska is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Georgia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Georgia is 2-6-2 ATS in its last 10 games

1:00 PM
IOWA vs. LSU
Iowa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
LSU is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LSU's last 12 games

1:00 PM
WISCONSIN vs. SOUTH CAROLINA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wisconsin's last 5 games
Wisconsin is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
South Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of South Carolina's last 6 games

5:00 PM
MICHIGAN STATE vs. STANFORD
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State's last 7 games
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Stanford is 19-2 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Stanford's last 8 games

8:30 PM
CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. BAYLOR
Central Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Florida's last 5 games
Baylor is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Baylor's last 12 games


Thursday, January 2

8:30 PM
OKLAHOMA vs. ALABAMA
Oklahoma is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma's last 6 games
Alabama is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games


Friday, January 3

8:00 PM
OKLAHOMA STATE vs. MISSOURI
Oklahoma State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Missouri
Oklahoma State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Missouri is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma State
Missouri is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma State

8:30 PM
CLEMSON vs. OHIO STATE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Clemson's last 6 games
Clemson is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games
Ohio State is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ohio State's last 8 games


Saturday, January 4

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. VANDERBILT
Houston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Vanderbilt is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games


Sunday, January 5

9:00 PM
ARKANSAS STATE vs. BALL STATE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arkansas State's last 5 games
Arkansas State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ball State's last 5 games
Ball State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games


Monday, January 6

8:30 PM
AUBURN vs. FLORIDA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Auburn's last 8 games
Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Florida State's last 13 games
Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF bowl game lines that make you go hmmm...

Bowl season is a rare beast, in the same genus as Week 1 of the NFL season. Football bettors are offered game odds well in advance and can bet the bowl games the second they hit the board or choose to wait a month until the closing seconds before kickoff.

That can make for some interesting and sometimes puzzling lines. With that in mind, here is our all-bowl edition of “Football lines that make you go hmmm…”:

Belk Bowl: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (+3, 56.5)

The Tar Heels had to rise from the dead in the ACC, winning five of their final six games to become bowl eligible. While momentum plays into bowl betting, stringing together a bunch of wins in the ACC is like finding a virgin to sacrifice at Comic Con.

The proximity of the Belk Bowl (in Charlotte) to Chapel Hill also plays into this line, discounting a very good Bearcats squad. Cincinnati went 12 rounds and then some with Louisville in the season finale and lost just three games, compared to UNC at 6-6. The Bearcats have experience whooping ACC ass in the Belk Bowl, having knocked off Duke, 48-34 as 8-point favorite, at Bank of America Stadium last December.


Alamo Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Longhorns (+13.5, 67)

Apparently, the Ducks don’t want to play and the departure of longtime Longhorns coach Mack Brown suddenly makes Texas awesome. Those “factors” are enough to move this spread below the key number of Oregon -14.

Sure, the Ducks were hoping to play on January 6 – or at least on New Year’s Day – but don’t expect Oregon to just lie down for the Horns on December 30.

The Ducks have had a long enough hiatus away from the field to shed that stumble to the finish and tinker with a defense that leaked an average of 31 points over the final four games. Plus, Oregon hits the fast indoor track of the Alamo Dome – its first indoor game of the season.

Texas isn’t the most dangerous offense either, putting up 31.2 points per game. The Longhorns’ 8-4 record is a bit misleading. They beat the teams they should have – thanks in part to a down year for the Big 12 – but couldn’t get over the hump against elite competition – losing to Ole Miss, Oklahoma State and Baylor.


Sun Bowl: Virginia Tech Hokies vs. UCLA Bruins (-7, 47)

Virginia Tech is a staple of bowl season, always earning enough “W’s” to make the postseason cut. However, the Hokies put in one of their least-impressive campaigns in 2013 – going just 8-4 SU and 4-7-1 ATS in the weak ACC – and limp into the Sun Bowl on New Year’s Eve.

Virginia Tech lost top RB Trey Edmunds to injury in the final game of the season and has an injury report longer than your kid’s Christmas wish list (who needs an Xbox One and a PS4?). The time between games – a month – will help heal some of those wounds. But what can’t be healed is VT’s ho-hum play.

UCLA has a nice balance on offense and defense, anchored by some standout talents that could steal the spotlight this bowl season. The Bruins boast a Sunday-ready DE in Anthony Barr, who was named first-team AP All-American and is projected to be a Top 10 selection in this year’s NFL Draft. And, under center is the reliable arm of sophomore Brett Hundley, who led the Pac-12 in completion percentage (67.8) and was 20th in the country in QB rating (153.69).


Fiesta Bowl: Baylor Bears vs. UCF Knights (+16.5, 68)

The Baylor Bears are like a hyper-active kid on Christmas Eve, jumping out of their skin in anticipation of what the morning will bring. But in BU’s case, Xmas morning is almost a month away.

Baylor has a long wait ahead of it, not taking the field for the Fiesta Bowl until New Year’s Day, which can sometimes cool off a red-hot offense. However, the Bears are focusing on keeping the offense charged after averaging a nation-high 51.2 points per game this season.

“Everybody is lively and active and has a lot of spring in their legs,” head coach Art Briles told reporters during BU’s second day of bowl prep. “We’ll have a great week. It will be imperative for us to be us, and to be at our best, and be explosive and dynamic on offense. We need to be tough and aggressive and great tacklers on defense, and win the special teams because this is our first chance to play in a BCS bowl game and we have to take full advantage of it.”

The Knights boast a defense that allowed only 19.6 points per game – 13th lowest in the country – but did so versus some anemic offenses. Central Florida’s roughest defensive showings came against quality opponents like Penn State, South Carolina, Louisville and Temple.

Wait… what? Temple? The team that finished 90th in scoring among 125 FBS schools? The Owls hung 36 points in a near upset against UCF, putting up a very Baylor-like 518 total yards of offense in the loss.

Baylor has garnered the two highest bowl totals in college football history the past two bowl seasons – 82 and 80 – so this 68-point number seems like chump change for a BU offense taking to the speedy turf of University of Phoenix Stadium. The last time the Bears played under a dome they posted 63 points on their own in a 63-34 win over Texas Tech at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

[StarDust Bum]

Double-digit college football bowl favorites 8-4 ATS since 2011

There is a bounty of double-digit spreads on the college football board this bowl season. Seven, actually, which is the most double-digit bowl spreads since 2008, when six teams were giving double digits during bowl season.

It would seem that, according to the oddsmakers, the powers that be behind these bowl games failed at their attempts to make for the most intriguing matchup available. But hey, that’s why we have pointspreads.

Looking back over the past 11 years (2003-2013), there have been 45 teams tabbed as double-digit bowl favorites, with those hefty faves going just 22-23 ATS in that span. However, big bowl chalk has come through for backers in recent years, posting an 8-4 ATS record since 2011.

Size matters when it comes to betting bowl favorites. Double-digit faves between 18 and 12 points are 11-6 ATS since 2003. At the top of the chalk is Oklahoma State, which was an 18-point favorite against Purdue in the Heart of Dallas Bowl on New Year’s Day 2013, winning easily 51-14.

This bowl season, the biggest favorites on the board are the Baylor Bears at -16.5 versus the UCF Knight in the Fiesta Bowl on January 1. In fact, just one of the seven 2013-14 double-digit bowl favorites is under that 12-point magic number – Texas A&M -11.5 versus Duke in the Chick-fil-A Bowl on New Year’s Eve.

Big spreads usually mean big points. Those 45 bowl games with double-digit spreads have gone a balanced 24-20-1 Over/Under since 2003, but much like the current ATS trend, the Over is a profitable 7-5 O/U since 2011.

Here are the seven bowl games with double-digit spreads as of Dec. 18:

St. Petersburg Bowl: East Carolina (-14) vs. Ohio
Pinstripe Bowl: Notre Dame (-14.5) vs. Rutgers
Alamo Bowl: Oregon (-13.5) vs. Texas
Holiday Bowl: Arizona State (-14) vs. Texas Tech
Chick-fil-A Bowl: Texas A&M (-11.5) vs. Duke
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (-16.5) vs. Central Florida
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (-15) vs. Oklahoma

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the stats: Good and bad bowl game coaches

Down the stretch update

As we outlined in this space last week, the final four weeks of the NFL season is a race to the wire for teams in the playoff chase. It’s also the time teams out of contention put things on cruise control and start preparing for next season.

According to our database some coaches shine while others wine during the final four games down the stretch.

From an ATS standpoint, listed below are coaches in their best and worst roles throughout their NFL career and the situational role in which appear this week. All results are ATS (against the spread).

Best Roles:

John Fox, Denver • 6-1 as a favorite of more than nine points
Leslie Frazier, Minnesota • 5-0 away vs. non-division opponents
Ron Rivera, Carolina • 3-0-1 as a favorite
Mike Shanahan, Washington • 8-0 home vs. division foe off a loss

Worst Roles:

Dennis Allen, Oakland • 0-2-1 off a double-digit loss
Jason Garrett, Dallas • 1-6 vs. division opponents
Greg Schiano, Tampa Bay • 1-3 vs. sub .500 opponents

Oil drip

Football teams who have been out-gained in each of their last three games are considered to be “leaking oil” when installed as favorites.

This week’s “leaking oil” favorites in the NFL are Baltimore, New York Jets and St. Louis.

By our count the Jets have been out -gained in each of their last seven games, the Rams in each of their last five, and the Ravens in three straight contests.

NFL tax collectors

In the highest-scoring week in NFL history, the average total points per game in the league was a whopping 52.8 last week.

The average game went Over by 6.3 points, adding to the 8.9 points two weeks ago. It was the second consecutive week in which NFL games averaged 52 or more points.

Be prepared to pay a tax on this week’s games, as the average total is at 46.9 point.

Meanwhile, the gift that keeps on giving has been Overs in non-conference games. With another outstanding 3-1 O/U effort last week, these non-conference totals are now 47-15 O/U this season.

With the final week of the schedule a matchup of all division games, the final two plays of the season kick off on Sunday. Those games are: Minnesota at Cincinnati and Pittsburgh at Green Bay.

Coach me up, Buttercup

With the bowl season kicking off this weekend, these coaches and their career tendencies in pre-New Year’s day games:

Good coaches:

Mark Hudspeth, La Lafayette • 12-4 ATS as a dog
Bronco Mendenhall, BYU • 15-6 ATS as a dog vs. < 1.000 opponent
Al Golden, Miami Fla • 0-4 SUATS vs. 900 > foe off a SUATS win
Brady Hoke, Michigan • 15-3 ATS off a loss if team .500 or greater
Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss • 9-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Jim Mora, UCLA • 6-1 SUATS off a win vs. opponent off a win of 3 >
David Bailiff, Rice • 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS with rest
David Cutcliffe, Duke • 3-1 SUATS as a bowl dog

Bad Coaches:

Mike Leach, Washington State • 2-6 ATS as a bowl favorite
Rocky Long, San Diego State • 1-6 SUATS in all bowl games
Mike Riley, Oregon State • 8-1 ATS away off BB losses
Rich Rodriguez, Arizona • 1-5 ATS in all bowl games
Dan Mullen, Mississippi State • 8-18 ATS vs. .750 > opponents

Stat of the Week

Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson is 17-1 ATS as a dog vs. an opponent off a loss.

[StarDust Bum]

Five hot teams losing momentum over the bowl break

Not every NCAA team with a bowl appearance on its schedule is happy about the long break between games.

Strong finishes to the regular season earned several teams their bowl invitations, but the extended time off may curtail whatever momentum they had built. And while the rest will undoubtedly do the players some good, the rust may be difficult to overcome on the grand stage.

Here are five teams betters should be wary of despite their season-ending success:

USC Trojans (9-4, 6-3 Pac-12)

The Trojans were headed for a long season after opening with losses in four of their first seven games, leading to the firing of head coach Lane Kiffin. Interim bench boss Ed Orgeron took over and promptly led USC to wins in six of seven games, including an impressive 20-17 triumph over then-No. 5 Stanford. The Trojans dropped a 35-14 decision to No. 22 UCLA in the latest edition of their rivalry, but still comes into its Las Vegas Bowl showdown with Fresno State on Dec. 26 as one of the hottest teams in the nation.


Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4, 5-3 Big Ten)

The Hawkeyes saw their bowl chances take a significant hit with three losses in a four-game stretch in October and November, but responded well to the adversity. Emphatic road victories over Purdue and Nebraska bookending a narrow home triumph over Michigan earned Iowa a spot in the Outback Bowl against the 16th-ranked LSU Tigers on New Year's Day. The timing is unfortunate for the Hawkeyes, who have had just one poor game since early-October - a 28-9 loss to then-No. 24 Wisconsin in which Iowa managed just 289 yards of total offense.


Bowling Green Falcons (10-3, 7-1 MAC)

Like Iowa, Bowling Green found its bowl future in jeopardy following back-to-back narrow defeats to Mississippi State and Toledo. But the Falcons have been completely unstoppable since, reeling off five consecutive victories while outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 223-44 margin. Bowling Green capped the dominant stretch with a 47-27 drubbing of the Northern Illinois Huskies in the MAC championship game, but will have waited 20 days before closing its season Dec. 26 against Pittsburgh in the Little Caesars Bowl.


North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6, 4-4 ACC)

Much of the focus in the ACC has been on rival Duke's unlikely run to a spot in the conference final, but the Tar Heels are making their own waves. After opening the season with losses in five of their first six games, North Carolina strung together five straight wins - highlighted by an 80-20 drubbing of Old Dominion on Nov. 23 that saw the team set school records for points and touchdowns. The Tar Heels dropped their ACC finale 27-25 to the Blue Devils on Nov. 30, and will have had four weeks off by the time they face Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl.


Rice Owls (10-3, 7-1 C-USA)

Losses in two of their first three games cast a bit of a pall on what was supposed to be a promising season for the Owls. Since then, Rice has been the most dominant team in its conference, winning nine of its next 10 games - including four straight to close the regular season. The Owls overcame their only defeat during that stretch - a 28-16 defeat versus rival North Texas - with a decisive 41-24 triumph over Marshall in the conference title game. Rice will have 23 days off before tangling with Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl on Dec. 31.

[StarDust Bum]

Four players who could make or break your bowl bets

The success of many college football teams often hinges on the ability of one player to consistently get the job done. And bowl season could be the first time these difference makers shine in the national spotlight.

These guys are among college football's elite, but because of their position, conference or team's success, they haven't received the exposure they deserve.

Here are four players that may not have been Heisman finalists, but can either make or break your bowl game bets.

Kapri Bibbs, RB Colorado State Rams

New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 21
Colorado State (+4.5) vs. Washington State

Bibbs leads the nation with 28 touchdowns. The sophomore has 254 carries for 1,572 yards, which is more impressive than it appears because he didn’t open the season as a starter. In his fourth career start, against Nevada, Bibbs set a school rushing record with 312 yards on 30 carries.

Bibbs, who needs to rush for only 30 yards to become Colorado State’s single-season rushing leader, slowed down in the final two games, netting 54 yards in a 13-0 loss at Utah State and 79 yards in a 58-13 blowout of Air Force. But that was after the massive effort against Nevada, followed by a 291-yard game in a 66-42 win at New Mexico.


Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State Beavers

Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24
Oregon State (-3) vs. Boise State

Cooks broke the Pac-12 record with 120 receptions during the regular season and totaled 1,670 receiving yards. He won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s most outstanding receiver.

Beavers junior quarterback Sean Mannion completed 376 passes, almost a third of those to Cooks. Of Mannion’s 36 touchdown passes, Cooks caught 15. Cooks had 10 catches in each of his last two games and broke 100 yards in both, as well.


Devante Davis, WR, UNLV Runnin’ Rebels

Heart of Dallas Bowl, Jan. 1
UNLV (+6.5) vs. North Texas

Davis had just four receptions as a UNLV freshman and 61 as a sophomore. But this year, he exploded and recorded 77 receptions for 1,194 yards and a school-record 14 touchdowns.

Senior quarterback Caleb Herring’s efficiency (22 TDs, four interceptions, 64.3 completion percentage) was aided by Davis’ ability to make plays. In the season finale, he had eight catches for 171 yards and four TDs in a 45-19 win over San Diego State.


Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State Spartans

Rose Bowl, Jan. 1
Michigan State (+4.5) vs. Stanford

Dennard won the Jack Tatum Award and Jim Thorpe Award as the best defensive back in college football. He’s an aggressive and fast cover corner with four interceptions for a Spartans defense that allowed six points or fewer in five of the past seven games.

Michigan State leads the nation in total defense (248.2 yards per game), while Stanford is 15th (339.4).

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

New Mexico Bowl 12/21 Albuquerque
Mike Leach was 6-4 in bowls at Texas Tech, but lost his first two bowls there; this is Washington State's first bowl in 10 years in Leach's second year in Pullman. Wazzu lost 31-24 at Auburn to open season, then beat USC 10-7 in Coliseum the next week; in middle of year, they gave up 56.3 ppg in 3-game skid, before 2-1 finish got them to 6-6, 9-3 vs spread. Coogs are 9-3 vs spread this year, 2-1 in games with pointspread that is less than a TD. Colorado State is playing first bowl since '08; they're 4-3 this year in games with single digit spread, 3-2 as underdogs. Mountain West non-conference oad underdogs are 10-12 vs spread; Pac-12 away favorites are 1-4; all Pac-12 favorites are 9-8 out of conference. Lot of experience on both OLs. Coog QB Halliday has more experience than Rams' QB Grayson, but he also threw 21 INT this season. MW teams covered five of last six appearances in this bowl.

Las Vegas Bowl 12/21, Las Vegas
USC fired Lane Kiffin during season, now they're playing his alma mater with their second interim coach, after Orgeron quit in wake of Sarkisian's hiring as new HC. Fresno was unbeaten until losing 62-52 at San Jose St (was 42-41 at half); they bounced back to win MW title game, but they lost last four bowl games, allowing 39.5 ppg- they lost this game in '08, '09, and got smoked 43-10 as 13-point favorite by SMU in Hawai'i Bowl LY. Pac-12 teams are 2-6 SU last eight times they played in this bowl. Trojans, likely to be flat after departure of popular (emotional) interim coach Orgeron, lost 21-7 (-7.5) in Sun Bowl LY after not playing in bowl previous two years- they've got soph QB but more experienced OL than Fresno, which has outstanding senior QB in Carr. Bulldogs are 2-2-1 in games with single digit spread; USC is 4-3. Trojans are 4-5 as a favorite.

Idaho Potato Bowl, 12/21
Buffalo is in its second bowl, losing 38-20 (+7) to UConn five years ago in Toronto; Bulls lost first two games, two of last three this season but won seven in row in between- they allowed 23 or less points in the eight wins, 46.3 ppg in four losses. Buffalo is 3-2 in games with single digit spread. San Diego State is in fourth straight bowl, two at home, one in New Orleans; how excited are they to go freeze in Boise? Aztecs started season 0-3, with loss to I-AA E. Illinois, then won seven of last eight games before losing finale at UNLV. San Diego State allowed 30+ points in five of last six games- they're 6-2 in games decided by 7 or less points. Bulls are 6-0 vs spread as favorites vs I-A teams. Underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in last eight Potato Bowls. MAC teams are 2-2 in this bowl last four years. Aztecs lost bowls last two years, after beating Navy in '10.

New Orleans Bowl, 12/21
UL-Lafayette won this bowl 32-30/43-34 last two years, their first two bowl appearances, now they're here for third year in row, against Tulane team that plays home games here in Superdome, before smallish crowds. Green Wave went 7-5 despite being underdog in nine of 11 lined games; they're in first bowl since 2002, are 5-1 at home, losing 41-39 to South Alabama. Tulane lost three of last four games, is 2-3 in games decided by less than a TD. C-USA teams won four of five bowl games LY. ULL is 0-5 vs spread in last five games, losing its last two games, allowing 31-30 points; Cajuns are 3-1 in games with single digit spread- they were the favorite in seven of last nine games. Underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in this bowl last eight years, with an average total of 64.8. Despite this being Tulane's home field, crowd should be evenly split. Green Wave's QB is Nick Montana, Joe's son.




NCAAF

Bowl Season

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New Mexico Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Washington State Cougars vs. Colorado State Rams (+4.5, 65.5)

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Washington State plays its first bowl game since 2003 when it meets Colorado State in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque on Dec. 21 - the first of 35 postseason contests culminating with the national championship game Jan. 6. While the Cougars will go bowling for the first time in 10 years, it has been five since the Rams defeated Fresno State 40-35 in the 2008 New Mexico Bowl. Washington State and Colorado State will meet for the first time in what could be a high-scoring contest.

2. Colorado State sophomore Kapri Bibbs rushed for 1,572 yards and 28 touchdowns this season, including back-to-back games of 312 and 291 yards. Bibbs gained only 54 and 79 yards, respectively, in the last two contests, but scored three touchdowns in a 58-13 victory over Air Force on Nov. 30 which made the Rams bowl eligible. The first-year player could add another big-yardage game to his resume, though, as Washington State yields 184 rushing yards per game - 84th in the nation.

3. The Cougars' one-dimensional offense, led by junior quarterback Connor Halliday, is fourth in the nation in passing at 364.5 yards per game, but last in rushing at 58.7. The Rams yield an average of 265.4 passing yards - 109th among the 123 FBS schools in the nation - but apply decent pressure with 27 sacks this season.

TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Colorado State as 3.5-point dogs and currently sit at +4.5. The total opened at 65 and has moved up slightly to 65.5.

WEATHER: There is a 22 percent chance of rain with a 12 mph wind blowing across the field.

ABOUT WASHINGTON STATE (6-6, 9-3 ATS): The Cougars were 4-5 with three games left on their schedule, but consecutive victories over Arizona and Utah made them bowl eligible before they finished the regular season with a 27-17 loss to Washington. Halliday (62.8 completion rate, 28 touchdowns, 21 interceptions) attempts 54 passes per game with sophomore Gabe Marks (team highs of 69 catches and 770 yards) his favorite target. “Every bowl I’ve been to is a great experience,” said second-year Cougars coach Mike Leach, whose team finished fifth in the six-team North Division of the Pac-12. “I couldn’t be more excited to go.”

ABOUT COLORADO STATE (7-6, 9-4 ATS): "This is an exciting day not only for our team and our program, but for fans of Colorado State who have waited five years for the chance to go back to a bowl game," said coach Jim McElwain, who also turned a program around in his second year. Junior quarterback Garrett Grayson (62.2 completion rate, 21 touchdowns, 10 interceptions) has managed the offense well with freshman Rashard Higgins (64 catches, 795 yards, six touchdowns) the leading receiver. The Rams, who lost four of their first six games, finished third in the six-team Mountain Division of the MWC.

TRENDS:

* Washington State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Colorado State is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.
* Over is 4-0 in Washington State's last four games versus the MWC.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Colorado State's last seven games versus the Pac-12.


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NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Las Vegas Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Southern California Trojans (-6, 63)

ROYAL PURPLE LAS VEGAS BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Fresno State had its BCS hopes dashed with a loss in its final regular-season game, but motivation shouldn’t be an issue when the Bulldogs face USC in the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 21. "Any time Fresno State gets a chance to play against BCS teams like USC we get up for it and our fan base gets up for it," coach Tim DeRuyter said. The Bulldogs are led by quarterback Derek Carr, who has passed for a nation-leading 4,866 yards with 48 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

2. USC looks to finish on a high note while playing for its third coach this season. Offensive coordinator Clay Helton will lead the Trojans in Las Vegas before new coach Steve Sarkisian takes over next season.

3. Fresno State defeated the Trojans 24-7 in the 1992 Freedom Bowl in Anaheim, Calif., and USC escaped with a thrilling 50-42 victory on Nov. 19, 2005 in Los Angeles. The teams are scheduled to open the 2014 season against each other in Los Angeles on Aug. 30.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE: USC has been bouncing back-and-fourth between -6 and -6.5. They currently sit at -6. The total opened at 62 an has been bet up to 63.

WEATHER: It will be a partly cloudy day with temperatures in the mid 50s.

ABOUT FRESNO STATE (11-1, 5-7 ATS): The Bulldogs boast the top-ranked passing and fifth-ranked scoring offense in the country, but allowed 736 total yards in a 62-52 loss at San Jose State and have struggled mightily against the pass. USC receivers Marqise Lee and Nelson Agholor should thrive against the Bulldogs’ much-maligned secondary, which could receive a boost if cornerback L.J. Jones returns after missing the last five games with a knee injury. Carr’s favorite target is star wideout Davante Adams, who has 122 catches for 1,645 yards and 23 touchdowns.

ABOUT USC (9-4, 6-7 ATS): The Trojans went 6-2 with impressive wins against Arizona and Stanford under interim coach Ed Orgeron, who was replaced after a 35-14 loss to rival UCLA in the regular-season finale. The Pac-12’s second-ranked scoring defense figures to be tested by the explosive Bulldogs, and cornerback Josh Shaw’s matchup against the dynamic Adams should be worth the price of admission. The Trojans can’t match the Bulldogs’ offensive firepower, but quarterback Cody Kessler has improved after a shaky start.

TRENDS:

* Fresno State is 0-4 ATS in its last four bowl games.
* USC is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.
* Over is 8-2 in Fresno's States last 10 games versus the Pac-12.
* Under is 7-0 in USC's last seven games in December.

[StarDust Bum]

How do College Football Teams with New Coaches Perform in Bowl Games?


With high-profile coaching changes at USC, Washington and Boise State this season, we looked back in our database of sports betting information to examine how teams historically perform ATS (against the spread) with new coaches in bowl games.

Should we expect these teams to suffer a drop in performance? Or do college football teams rally around their new coaches and actually overperform, providing value for bettors?

To perform the analysis, we isolated each instance of a college team playing a bowl game with a new head coach and compiled the results (since 2005) in the table below:
Teams w/ New Coaches

ATS Record

ATS Win %
All Teams 16-14-1 53.3%

At first look, there didn’t appear to be much of an edge with all teams led by new coaches posting a 16-14 (53.3%) ATS record. However, after dicing up the results a bit further, there is a significant difference in performance when comparing favorites to underdogs.
Teams w/ New Coaches

ATS Record

ATS Win %
Underdogs 5-8 35.7%
Favorites 11-6-1 64.7%

While this sample size is incredibly small and not something we’d recommend solely using as a betting system, favorites clearly outperform underdogs when playing bowl games with new coaches.

Even with new coaches, teams that are still favored over opponents in bowl games are most likely expected to win due to greater talent. It makes sense that a team with superior or more experienced players is better equipped to perform well in spite of a late-season coaching change.

[StarDust Bum]

New Orleans Bowl

December 20, 2013


New Orleans Bowl (ESPN, 9:00 p.m.)
ULL Ragin Cajuns (8-4 SU, 4-8 ATS) vs. Tulane Green Wave (7-5 SU, 9-3 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Tulane -1.5 & 49.5
Opening Line & Total: Green Wave -2.5 & 49.5

UL-Lafayette tries to win the New Orleans Bowl for the third straight season as they take on in-state rival Tulane on Saturday night.

The Ragin' Cajuns have had plenty of success in the Superdome in the past two postseasons. Two years ago they won a close 32-30 battle against San Diego State, and then won 43-34 against East Carolina in front of a New Orleans Bowl record-setting crowd last season. UL-Lafayette won eight straight games between Sept. 14 and Nov. 16, including starting 5-0 in conference play, before losing their its final two games of the season to Sun Belt foes UL-Monroe and South Alabama.

The Green Wave also started conference play in strong fashion, winning their first four games against C-USA opponents. They looked as if they would be competing to play in the conference championship until they lost three of their final four games and finished fourth in the West division. Tulane put up a strong effort against eventual conference champion Rice in its final game, losing only 17-13 as 9.5-point underdogs and held the Owls to zero points in the second half. This will be Tulane’s 11th bowl game and first since 2002, going 4-6 SU in its previous 10, but winning its past two bowls.

The Ragin' Cajuns are currently on a five-game ATS losing streak and are only 4-8 ATS this season while the Green Wave have been an impressive 9-3 ATS, including 7-1 ATS over their past eight games. These two programs squared off last season with UL-Lafayette pounding Tulane by a score of 41-13, but failing to cover the large 31-point spread. They outrushed the Green Wave 294-53 in that game and forced three turnovers. Both teams are relatively healthy for this game, but the big question is whether or not UL-Lafayette QB Terrance Broadway can play after breaking his arm on Nov. 30. He's considered questionable right now, as the doctors have not yet cleared him to play.

After scoring 23+ points in 10 straight games, the Ragin’ Cajuns really missed junior QB Terrance Broadway (2,276 pass yards, 19 TD, 10 INT) in the regular season finale, scoring just eight points at South Alabama with three UL-Lafayette quarterbacks combining to complete just 9-of-26 passes for 143 yards (5.5 YPA), 1 TD and 2 INT. If Broadway is not able to go, freshman QB Brooks Haack (224 pass yards, 6.4 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT) will be taking the snaps. Broadway also adds a lot to the running game with 421 rushing yards (3.6 YPC) and eight touchdowns on the ground.

The uncertainty at quarterback makes HBs Alonzo Harris (868 rush yards, 4.7 YPC, 13 TD) and Elijah McGuire (818 rush yards, 8.9 YPC, 7 TD) that much more important. McGuire has been lightning in a bottle this season with four games of at least 11 yards per carry, but he rushed the ball only three times for 13 yards in the loss to South Alabama. Junior WR Jamal Robinson has been the main target in the passing game with 812 receiving yards (16.2 avg.) and eight touchdowns, but he is coming off a game where he had only one catch for 11 yards.

LB Justin Anderson (124 tackles) leads this defense that has allowed 26.9 PPG to their opponents this season (68th in nation), including giving up 30+ points in four of the past five games. The Cajuns have done a decent job stopping the run (4.2 YPC), but have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 61.2% of their passes for 239 YPG.

Tulane surprisingly won seven games this season despite having an offense that ranks 104th in FBS passing yards (176 YPG) and 102nd in rushing yards (128 YPG). QB Nick Montana has a subpar 1,654 passing yards (5.7 YPA) with 14 TD and 9 INT this season, but he has thrown four touchdowns and zero picks over his past contests. That's quite an improvement from his 0 TD and 5 INT in two games to start the month of November.

Senior HB Orleans Darkwa has 780 rushing yards on 172 attempts (4.5 YPC) while adding nine touchdowns, but has been wildly inconsistent. He has three 100+ yard games this year, but has also been held to 50 yards or less in six different contests. The true star on the offense has been senior WR Ryan Grant, who has compiled 926 receiving yards on 70 receptions (13.2 avg.) and nine touchdowns. He has 7+ catches in six games this year, and hopes to be playing on Sundays next season.

The defense has played pretty well all season, allowing only 21.2 PPG (19th in nation), including holding four of the past five opponents to 17 points or less. The defense has been especially tough versus the run, giving up only 119 YPG on 3.1 YPC, and has forced multiple turnovers in all but one game this season, totaling 33 takeaways in the 12 games.

[StarDust Bum]

New Mexico Bowl

December 20, 2013


New Mexico Bowl (ESPN, 2:00 p.m.)
Colorado State Rams (7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS) vs. Washington State Cougars (6-6 SU, 9-3 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Washington State -5.5 & 66
Opening Line & Total: Cougars -3.5 & 65

The first step in the resurgence of the Washington State program under Mike Leach is in full tilt as his team is back in a bowl game, taking on Colorado State in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday in Albuquerque.

Last season, the Cougars were able to win only three games, but have doubled that this season behind an air attack that averages 364.5 passing yards per game, which ranks fourth in the nation. In the season opener, WSU lost to the Auburn 31-24, and while it didn’t appear to be an important game at the time, Auburn is now in the national championship, showing the Cougars have the ability to play with anybody in the country. Washington State (9-3 ATS) has done a good job of beating all the teams it is supposed to beat (4-0 SU and ATS when favored), but its past five losses have all come by double figures, losing by an average of 26.8 PPG over these five defeats. The Cougars have faced many balanced offenses this season in Pac-12 play, and they are going up against another such offense in this bowl game.

Colorado State (9-4 ATS) has scored at least 27 points in all but two of its games, and one of those exceptions was against Alabama. The Rams have averaged more than 200 yards both rushing and passing this season, but Leach is 20-5 ATS (80%) versus good rushing teams (200+ YPG) as a collegiate head coach. However, excellent rushing teams (4.8+ YPC) such as Colorado State facing a poor rushing team (3.0 to 3.5 YPC) are 108-66 ATS (62%) over the past five seasons. Both of these teams have a tendency to struggle on defense, which should make for an entertaining, high-scoring game.

In a battle of two high-powered offenses, Washington State junior QB Connor Halliday (4,187 pass yards, 28 TD, 21 INT) has the ability to put up monster numbers, but he must limit the turnovers. In his team's six losses, he threw 14 interceptions, compared to just 10 touchdowns. When he remains composed and does not always try to make the big play, the Cougars can be a great on offense. What makes the passing game dangerous is their ability to spread the ball around to many different receivers. With so many passing yards, it is surprising to see that the leading receiver for Washington State is Gabe Marks, who has 69 catches for 770 yards and 6 TD on the season. The Cougars have nine different receivers with at least 200 yards this year, with eight of those receivers catching at least two touchdowns. However, the offense is too one-dimensional at times, ranking 123rd in the country with 58.7 rushing YPG on a paltry 3.1 YPC.

On defense, Washington State allows 31.3 PPG, which ranks 92nd in the country. The unit was playing well at the beginning of the year, holding USC to seven points in Week 2, but has been brutal in its losses, allowing 47.0 PPG in the six defeats. In a loss to Oregon State on Oct. 12, Beavers QB Sean Mannion threw for 493 yards and four touchdowns against the Cougars. The Rams have the ability to throw the ball, but can be equally as dangerous with their potent ground game.

Colorado State junior QB Garrett Grayson (3,327 pass yards, 21 TD and 10 INT) was very good this season, but he has not had to do it all on his own. Sophomore RB Kapri Bibbs (1,572 rush yards, 6.2 YPC and 28 TD) has been a star in his first season getting the carries, as his 28 scores rank second in the nation behind only Navy QB Keenan Reynolds. While his numbers are sensational, he has been somewhat inconsistent on the ground. Bibbs has rushed for over 200 yards in three of his past seven games, (including back-to-back games of 312 and 291) but has also been under 80 yards eight times this season, including three of his past five contests. However, Bibbs has shown enough ability to make the Cougars defense have to respect him, which will open up the passing attack for Grayson.

While the offense (35.3 PPG, 29th in FBS) has been very good, the defense has been subpar, allowing 28.6 PPG (79th in nation). The Rams have really struggled defending the pass, surrendering 265 YPG on 63% completions. Against San Jose State on Oct. 12, David Fales threw for 431 yards and three touchdowns. The bowl season offers many styles of games, and this matchup is for the fans that love high-scoring matchups. Expect lots of touchdowns to be scored in this contest that could go down to the wire.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Bowl Action

December 20, 2013


Las Vegas Bowl

Matchup: Fresno State vs. Southern California
Venue: Sam Boyd Stadium
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Time/TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

-- As of Friday afternoon, most books had USC (9-4 straight up, 6-7 against the spread) installed as a six-point favorite with a total of 62. Gamblers can back the Bulldogs on the money line for a +210 return (risk $100 to win $210). For first-half bets, USC is favored by 3 ½ with a total of 31 ½.

-- Fresno St. (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) is in its first underdog situation of the season. Any disappointment of not getting to a BCS bowl was most likely forgotten by the Bulldogs when they saw their name next to that of USC’s. I would expect FSU to play with a chip on its shoulder due to the fact that most of its players were bypassed by the Trojans in the recruiting process.

-- Fresno St. went unbeaten until suffering a 62-52 loss at San Jose St. on Nov. 29. The Bulldogs recovered the following week to win the Mountain West Conference title game by a 24-17 count over Utah St. They hooked up their betting supporters as 2.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Derek Carr threw for 404 yards and three touchdowns against the Aggies.

-- Carr has enjoyed a sensational senior campaign and will have NFL scouts galore on hand to watch him in Vegas. He has completed 70.1 percent of his throws for 4,866 yards with a 48/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Carr’s favorite target is Davante Adams, who has hauled in 122 receptions for 1,654 yards and 23 TDs. Josh Harper, who missed the MWC title game with a groin injury, has 79 catches for 1,011 yards and 13 TDs.

-- USC has hired a new coach in former assistant Steve Sarkisian, but it will be without Ed Orgeron after he led the team to six wins in its last eight games. Oregeron bolted town after not getting the head job. Therefore, you have to wonder what the mindset is for this team going into the postseason. Remember, USC completely no-showed the Sun Bowl last year by losing 21-7 to a seven-loss Ga. Tech squad.

-- USC had won five consecutive games before getting thumped 35-14 by UCLA in its regular-season finale. Brett Hundley paced the Bruins with 80 rushing yards and a pair of TD scampers. Javorious Allen ran for 123 yards and one TD. Allen, a product of Tallahassee Lincoln High School that has produced the likes of former Florida OT Zach Pillar, former UF defensive end Kevin Carter and former FSU cornerback Antonio Cromartie, has 10 rushing scores in USC’s last five games.

-- Southern Cal has been a single-digit favorite four times this year, going 2-2 ATS.

-- USC will be without two starting offensive linemen. OT Aundrey Walker and center Marcus Martin are both out after sustaining knee injuries.

-- The ‘under’ is 9-4 overall for the Trojans. Meanwhile, totals have been an overall wash for the Bulldogs (6-6).

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Matchup: Buffalo vs. San Diego State
Venue: Bronco Stadium
Location: Boise, Idaho
Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

-- These teams will meet in the Idaho Potato Bowl on the smurf turf in Boise. Buffalo will have to venture across country, but it will be familiar with the cold conditions in Idaho. San Diego St. won’t have to travel as far, but the weather won’t be to its liking.

-- As of Friday afternoon, most spots had San Diego St. (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) listed as a 1 ½-point favorite with a total of 51.

-- Before laying an egg in a 45-19 loss at UNLV in its regular-season finale, Rocky Long’s squad had won seven of its eight previous games. The lone defeat during that span came to Fresno State in overtime.

-- San Diego St. is by RB Adam Muema, who rushed for 1,015 yards and 12 TDs during the regular season. QB Quinn Kaehler threw for 2,796 yards with a 17/9 TD-INT ratio.

-- Buffalo (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) has one of the nation’s premier players in LB Khalil Mack, who won the Lambert Award for the country’s top linebacker. Mack has 94 tackles, 19 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks and three interceptions this season. He returned two of those picks for TDs and he has 15 career forced fumbles.

-- Buffalo produced a seven-game winning streak before dropping two of its last three games. The Bulls lost a 24-7 decision at home to eventual MAC champ Bowling Green in their regular-season finale.

-- Buffalo QB Joe Licata had a solid season, throwing 2,628 yards with a 21/7 TD-INT ratio. Brandon Oliver ran for a team-high 1,421 yards and 15 TDs.

-- San Diego St. compiled a 3-1 spread record in four games as a single-digit favorite.

-- Buffalo went 2-3 ATS in five games as an underdog.

-- ESPN will have the telecast at 5:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Three SEC quarterbacks won’t play in the postseason – Georgia’s Aaron Murray, LSU’s Zach Mettenberger and Vandy’s Austyn Carta-Samuels.

-- In Saturday’s New Mexico Bowl at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN, Washington St. is favored by 5 ½ vs. Colorado St. The ‘over’ is 8-3 for the Rams, who have gone 3-2 ATS in five games as underdogs.

-- Tulane is favored by 1 ½ or two vs. UL-Lafayette in Saturday night’s New Orleans Bowl at the Superdome. The Ragin’ Cajuns will most likely be without starting QB Terrance Broadway, who has an injured wrist. Without Broadway, UL-Lafayette got smashed 30-8 at South Alabama in its regular-season finale.

-- Tulane has covered the number at a 7-1 clip in its last eight games. On the flip side, the Ragin’ Cajuns are in the midst of a 0-5 ATS slide.

[StarDust Bum]

Here are some Bowl Systems that over the years are proven winners...mostly because you are going against the $$$ in these games. If someone wants to please determine what teams fit these systems it would be a great help to everyone involved...Thanks...BTW some of these systems will have plays on both sides...usually when a teams fits several systems it hits at a very high rate
Bet the dog if the teams have exactly the same won lost record

Bet the team with the worst season record if a dog

Bet on Lower Ranked Teams as a dog to higher Ranked Teams

Bet on Lower Ranked Teams as a favorite vs Higher Ranked Teams
Bet on A team not Ranked as a dog to a Ranked Team

Bet on A team not Ranked that is a favorite over a Ranked Team

Play underdogs with higher Sagarin strength-of-schedule ratings than their opponents

Play underdogs of 7.5 or more points in December Bowls

Play on Dogs of 4-11 pts from 12/25 to 12/31

Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf

Bowls from 12/15 to 12/24:

PLAY ON Favs of 3.5 or less

PLAY THE OVER with Totals of 63.5 or higher

Bowls from 12/25 to 12/31:

PLAY ON Double Digit dogs

Bowls from 1/1 to 1/10:

PLAY ON Favs in LOWER TIER Bowl games
PLAY AGAINST MAC teams....they are 1-9-1 ATS L11
PLAY ON: Dogs in bowl games that won the previous year vs. an opponent that won 8 or less games last year
Play on a non-New Year's Day bowl team that are 15' point + dogs.
Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs

[StarDust Bum]

Play on Dogs in bowl games that won prior year - playing team that won 8 or less games last year UL Lafayette
Ohio
Syracuse
BYU
Cincinnati
Georgia Tech
Texas Tech
Rice
South Carolina
Central Florida
Oklahoma St.

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Play on Higher ranked Sagarin teams that are dogs....
UtahSt.
Georgia Tech
Houston

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Play UNDER, 2 teams in Non-BCS conf (under went 8-2 last year)
Buffalo-SJState
Tulane-ULLafayette
EastCarolina-Ohio
NIllinois-UtahSt
Navy-MidTennSt
NorthTexas-UNLV
BallSt-ArkansasSt

[StarDust Bum]

70 betting notes for 70 college football bowl teams

Bowl season is here, with 35 games in 17 days to highlight your holiday. But with shopping, shoveling and family eating up your time, you may not have a moment to cap the college football board.

Don’t worry. We have you covered, with 70 need-to-know betting notes for all 70 bowl teams in action this postseason.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl - Saturday Dec. 21, 2 p.m. ET

Washington State Cougars vs. Colorado State Rams (+4.5, 65)

Washington State, despite an impressive 9-3 ATS mark this season, has never won a bowl game by more than eight points in its history (5-3 SU since 1981). The Cougars are making their first bowl appearance since 2003.

Can history repeat itself for Colorado State? The last time the Rams made a bowl appearance, they defeated Fresno State 40-35 in the 2008 New Mexico Bowl.


Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl - Saturday Dec. 21, 3:30 p.m. ET

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. USC Trojans (-6.5, 62)

Southern Cal can only hope good things come in threes, as offensive coordinator Clay Helton takes over on the sidelines to become the third coach this season for the Trojans. USC finished the year 0-2 ATS, including a blowout 35-14 loss at home to UCLA as a 4.5-point favorite.

Fresno State’s 11-1 record might look impressive upon first glance, but the Mountain West champion finished the season 5-7 ATS and only faced one BCS conference opponent all season, defeating Rutgers 52-51 way back in Week 1.


Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Saturday Dec. 21, 5:30 p.m. ET

Buffalo Bulls vs. San Diego State Aztecs (-1, 53)

Making only its second-ever bowl appearance in school history, MAC runner-up Buffalo finished tied for fifth in the nation in turnovers allowed, committing only 12 all season.

San Diego State recovered from a 0-3 start to win seven of its last nine (6-6 ATS record this season), including a 34-31 victory over Boise State on Nov. 23.


R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - Saturday Dec. 21, 9 p.m. ET

Tulane Green Wave vs. UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (+2.5, 49)

Tulane, playing at its home stadium – the Superdome – for the final time before moving to a new stadium next year, is 21-5 SU all-time vs. the Ragin’ Cajuns.

UL Lafayette, which finished the regular season 0-5 ATS, makes its third consecutive appearance in the New Orleans Bowl, where it is 2-0 SU/ATS.


Beef O’Brady’s Bowl - Monday Dec. 23, 2 p.m. ET

East Carolina Pirates vs. Ohio Bobcats (+14, 61.5)

East Carolina opened as a 13.5-point favorite over Ohio, despite its 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS over its past four bowl games.

The Bobcats, making their fifth consecutive bowl appearance, are 2-2 SU/ATS under head coach Frank Solich. Last season, Ohio finished 1-4 SU/ATS down the stretch, before defeating UL Monroe handily 45-14 in the Independence Bowl as a 6-point dog. This year, the Bobcats finished the regular season 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS.


Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - Tuesday Dec. 24, 8 p.m. ET

Oregon State Beavers vs. Boise State Broncos (+3, 63.5)

Boise State will have linebackers coach Bob Gregory serve as interim head coach for this game after Chris Peterson jumped ship to take the Washington job. The Broncos are 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five vs. the Beavers, including a 37-24 win in their last meeting in 2010.

Head coach Mike Riley’s job may be on the line in Honolulu. After starting the season 6-1, Oregon State dropped each of its final five games of the regular season (2-3 ATS) to finish at .500.


Little Caesar’s Bowl - Thursday Dec. 26, 6 p.m. ET

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (+5, 50)

At 10-3, Bowling Green owns one of the best ATS records in the entire country. The Falcons recorded a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS mark to end the regular season, highlighted by their 47-27 upset win over previously unbeaten Northern Illinois in the MAC championship game. A win could secure BGSU its first-ever Top 25 finish, but it’ll have to do it without head coach Dave Clawson, who recently left to take over the job at Wake Forest.

Pitt DT Aaron Donald, awarded the 2013 Nagurski Trophy as the best defensive player in college football, will try to lock down BGSU’s offense, which has averaged 44.6 ppg during its five-game win streak.


Poinsettia Bowl - Thursday Dec. 26, 9:30 p.m. ET

Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Utah State Aggies (+1.5, 58)

Arguably the best mid-major in the country, Northern Illinois and the nation’s fifth-ranked offense will have to find a way to regroup after losing the MAC championship and a shot at a BCS bowl game. QB Jordan Lynch, a Heisman finalist, is just the man to lead the turnaround in his final college game.

Utah State ranks seventh in the FBS in points allowed, averaging only 17.3 points per game against. The Aggies haven’t allowed more than 24 points in any game since Week 1.


Military Bowl - Friday Dec. 27, 2013, 2:30 p.m. ET

Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Maryland Terrapins (+2.5, 62.5)

After a 4-0 start to the season, Maryland suffered a rash of injuries on both sides of the football, causing the Terps to limp to the finish line in the ACC Atlantic with a 3-5 SU/ATS record.

Marshall showed earlier this year they can hang with the ACC. The Thundering Herd lost a 29-21 heartbreaker on the road at Virginia Tech (8-4) in triple-overtime back in September.


Texas Bowl - Friday Dec. 27, 6 p.m. ET

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Syracuse Orange (+4, 47.5)

Following a leave of absence due to epileptic seizures, head coach Jerry Kill leads Minnesota to the Texas Bowl for a second straight year (lost to Texas Tech 34-31), ending the season on a 6-0 ATS run.

Prior to its offense breaking out in a 34-31 win vs. Boston College to end the regular season, Syracuse averaged just 12.8 ppg in its previous seven contests (3-4 SU/ATS). The Orange are ranked 100th nationally in points scored (22.8).


Fight Hunger Bowl – Friday Dec. 27, 9:30 p.m. ET

Washington Huskies vs. BYU Cougars (+3, 60)

BYU is 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in its last three games vs. Washington, including a 23-17 win most recently in 2010.

The Huskies will be without head coach Steve Sarkisian, who left to take the vacant USC job. Incoming head coach Chris Peterson (from Boise State) will watch from the stands, leaving the team in the hands of unproven interim coach Marques Tuiasosopo.


New Era Pinstripe Bowl - Saturday Dec. 28, 12:00 p.m. ET

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+14.5, 52.5)

New Jersey-based Rutgers earned its pinstripes based far more on geography than football success. The Bronx-bound Scarlet Knights were a woeful 2-5 SU/ATS down the stretch, leading to the firing of their defensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach and offensive line coach this week.

With Rutgers reeling, Notre Dame opened as high as a 17-point favorite before being bet down. The Irish are an impressive 15-0 SU dating back to Oct. 2011 when favored by 10 or more points, but are just 6-9 ATS over that span.


Belk Bowl - Saturday Dec. 28, 3:20 p.m. ET

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (+3, 56.5)

North Carolina may have overcome a 1-5 start to earn a bowl bid, but beware UNC playing on state soil in the postseason. The favored Tar Heels are 0-3 lifetime in bowl games played in Carolina.

Cincinnati returns to the Belk Bowl for the second straight year, defeating Duke 48-34 in last season’s game. The Bearcats only have one victory versus a team with a winning record this season.


Russell Athletic Bowl - Saturday Dec. 28, 6:45 p.m. ET

Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes (+3, 57)

Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater wasn’t picked as a Heisman finalist after managing only five TD passes over his last four games. He threw for 24 touchdowns in the Cardinals’ first eight games.

Miami started the season 7-0 SU and finished it 1-6 ATS.


Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl - Saturday Dec. 28, 10:15 p.m. ET

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines (+3.5, 55)

Slow start, solid finish. K-State opened the season 2-4, before winning five of its last six and ending the year on a 6-2 ATS run.

Solid start, bad finish. Michigan started 6-1, before losing four of its last five to close out the regular season. The Wolverines did finish, however, on a 3-0 ATS run, including their highly-publicized one-point loss to Ohio State at the Big House.


Armed Forces Bowl - Monday Dec. 30, 11:45 a.m. ET

Navy Midshipmen vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (+6, 55)

Middle Tennessee won its final five games (3-2 ATS), averaging 523.4 yards and 42.6 points.

Navy boasts the third-ranked rushing attack in the nation (320.1 yards per game), led by option QB Keenan Reynolds, who scored seven touchdowns in the Midshipmen’s 58-52 win over San Jose State to close out the regular season.


Music City Bowl - Monday Dec. 30, 3:15 p.m. ET

Mississippi Rebels vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+3, 56.5)

Georgia Tech is sixth in the nation running the ball, averaging 312.1 yards per game, while ranking ninth in the country in rushing yards allowed, surrendering just 107 yards an outing.

Ole Miss is 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in its past nine bowl games, dating back to 1997. The Rebels only SU/ATS loss came the last time they played in the Music City Bowl, a 49-38 loss to West Virginia in Eli Manning’s freshman season.


Valero Alamo Bowl - Monday Dec. 30, 6:45 p.m. ET

Oregon Ducks vs. Texas Longhorns (+13.5, 67)

Texas struggled to keep pace with Baylor’s high-octane offense in a 30-10 loss and it certainly won’t have an easier time against QB Marcus Mariota and the potent Ducks offense, which averages 46.8 points per game.

Oregon is 4-4 SU/ATS over its last eight bowl games, alternating between winning/covering two games, then losing two, then winning two, then losing two over that span. Should the trend continue, it’s worth noting the Ducks have won/covered their past two bowl games.


Holiday Bowl - Monday Dec. 30, 10:15 p.m. ET

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (+14, 70)

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Texas Tech, which opened the season 7-0 before dropping its final five games to fall to sixth in the Big 12. The Red Raiders defense allowed a whopping 48.6 points per game during their losing streak.

Arizona State, meanwhile, is ranked ninth in the nation in scoring, averaging 41 points per game. It’s no surprise the Sun Devils opened as 13-point favorites.


AdvoCare V100 Bowl - Tuesday Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m. ET

Arizona Wildcats vs. Boston College Eagles (+7.5, 57)

Boston College RB Andre Williams led the FBS with 2,102 yards rushing, en route to becoming a Heisman finalist. The Eagles are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS when Williams runs for 150 yards or more. Arizona ranks 71st against the run, allowing 169.8 yards on the ground per game.

Arizona RB Ka’Deem Carey finished fifth in the FBS with 1,716 yards. The Wildcats are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS when Carey runs for 150 yards or more. Boston College ranks 53rd against the run, allowing an average of 155 yards per game.


Hyundai Sun Bowl - Tuesday Dec. 31, 2 p.m. ET

UCLA Bruins vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (+7, 47)

Despite a strong 8-4 ATS record this season, UCLA is just 5-8 ATS (4-9 SU) over its past 13 bowl games dating back to 1995. The Bruins opened as touchdown favorites over the Hokies.

Despite a weak 4-7-1 ATS record this year, Virginia Tech is 4-1-1 ATS (4-2 SU) over its past six bowl appearances since 2008.


AutoZone Liberty Bowl - Tuesday Dec. 31, 4 p.m. ET

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Rice Owls (+7, 50.5)

Rice defeated Marshall 41-24 in the C-USA Championship - its first outright title since 1957. A win would give the Owls a school-record 11 wins and consecutive bowl victories for the first time in school history.

Mississippi State won its last two games in overtime, including a dramatic 17-10 win over Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, to get to the necessary six-win plateau to qualify for a bowl game. How tough is the SEC? All six of the Bulldogs’ losses came against teams ranked in the Top 20.


Chick-fil-A Bowl - Tuesday Dec. 31, 8 p.m. ET

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Duke Blue Devils (+11.5, 74.5)

Duke, playing in back-to-back bowl games for the first time in school history, had its seven-game ATS win streak snapped by Florida State in the ACC championship game.

Texas A&M, which enters as a 11.5-point favorite, finished the season 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS versus ranked teams.


TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl - Wednesday Jan. 1, 12:00 p.m. ET

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (+9, 60.5)

Nebraska looks for revenge in the rematch of last year’s Capital One Bowl, which Georgia won 45-31. The Cornhuskers are 0-3 SU/ATS in their past three bowl appearances.

Georgia will be without the services of starting QB Aaron Murray, who is out with a knee injury. Murray lit up Nebraska for five TDs and 427 yards passing in last year’s bowl win. Junior Hutson Mason, who has made one career start for the Bulldogs, is Murray’s replacement.


Heart of Dallas Bowl - Wednesday Jan. 1, 12:00 p.m. ET

North Texas Mean Green vs. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (+6.5, 54.5)

UNLV, which opened as a 7-point underdog to North Texas, went 5-1 ATS as a dog in its last six games – winning three of them outright – to qualify for its first bowl game since 2000.

North Texas finished its season 6-1 SU/ATS, including a convincing 28-16 win over Rice.


Capital One Bowl - Wednesday Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET

Wisconsin Badgers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (Pick, 51)

Wisconsin’s defense proved itself to be BCS-worthy, ranking sixth nationally in yards allowed (294.4), rushing yards allowed (101.8) and points allowed (14.8). Unfortunately for the Badgers, an upset loss to Penn State as 25-point home favorites in their final regular season game sealed their bowl fate. Wisconsin went 9-0-1 ATS in its first 10 games before finishing 0-2 ATS.

Over the past five years, the Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in bowl games. Over its past five games, South Carolina is 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU).


Outback Bowl - Wednesday Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET

LSU Tigers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (+7, 49)

Louisiana State opened as a heavy favorite (-8.5) vs. Iowa, despite losing senior QB Zach Mettenberger to a season-ending knee injury in its season finale. Freshman backup Anthony Jennings, who manufactured the game-winning 99-yard touchdown drive to defeat the Razorbacks 31-27, will get the start.

The last – and only – time these two teams faced off was back in 2005 in the Capital One Bowl, won 30-25 by Iowa as a 6-point dog on a 56-yard touchdown by Warren Holloway on the last play of the game. Iowa’s four losses this season came against teams that finished with a combined record of 45-6.


Rose Bowl - Wednesday Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ET

Stanford Cardinal vs. Michigan State Spartans (+4.5, 42.5)

Michigan State makes its first trip to Pasadena in 25 years on the strength of a defense that ranks No. 1 in the nation in total yards allowed (247.8) and rushing yards allowed (80.5). The Spartans, fresh off their big 34-24 win over Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, are 14-1 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in their past 11 as underdogs.

Stanford, making its second straight Rose Bowl appearance, also boasts a stingy defense that ranked third nationally in rushing yards allowed (91.7) and 10th in scoring defense (18.6). The Cardinal finished the season 1-7 O/U, while MSU went 2-5 O/U in its last seven games. The total opened at 41.


Tostitos Fiesta Bowl - Wednesday Jan. 1, 8:30 p.m. ET

Baylor Bears vs. Central Florida Knights (+16.5, 68.5)

Baylor is making its first-ever BCS bowl appearance after winning the Big 12 title for the first time since 1980. The Bears finished 8-0 ATS at home this season, but just 1-3 ATS away from Floyd Casey Stadium.

Central Florida also makes its first BCS appearance after winning the American Athletic Conference. The Knights are 3-0 ATS as underdogs this season, which includes a 3-point loss at home to SEC-power South Carolina and an outright win at Louisville.


Allstate Sugar Bowl - Thursday Jan. 2, 8:30 p.m. ET

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooner (+15, 51.5)

Alabama lost out on its chance for a third consecutive national championship after losing a heartbreaker to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Could this be a letdown spot for Bama? This season is starting to feel eerily similar to 2008, when then-undefeated Alabama lost to Florida 31-20 in the SEC Championship before getting blasted by Utah 31-17 in – you guessed it – the Sugar Bowl.

Surprisingly, this year’s Sugar Bowl marks only the fifth time in college football history that these two storied programs have met on the gridiron. Oklahoma leads the series 2-1-1 SU, winning most recently 20-13 at Tuscaloosa in 2003.


AT&T Cotton Bowl - Friday Jan. 3, 8 p.m. ET

Missouri Tigers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (+1, 60.5)

Missouri finished with an impressive 10-2-1 ATS record this season, but is 0-3 SU/ATS in its past three matchups vs. Oklahoma State, dating back to its days in the Big 12.

Prior to last week’s 33-24 loss to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State was 6-0 SU/ATS down the stretch, including notable wins vs. bowl-bound Baylor, Texas and Texas Tech. The Cowboys are 3-0 SU in their past three bowl games.


Discover Orange Bowl - Thursday Jan. 2, 8:30 p.m. ET

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Clemson Tigers (+2.5, 68)

Ohio State and Clemson have only met once before in the 1978 Gator Bowl - best remembered for Buckeyes coach Woody Hayes punching out a Clemson linebacker for intercepting a pass in the Tigers’ 17-15 win.

Is the Under the play here? The Under is 6-1 over the past seven Orange Bowls, 6-2 in OSU’s last eight bowl games and 8-3 in the past 11 when the Tigers are a dog. The total opened at 68.


BBVA Compass Bowl - Saturday Jan. 4, 1 p.m. ET

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Houston Cougars (+2.5, 53)

Vanderbilt is in search of its second consecutive nine-win season under head coach James Franklin. Since last year, when Franklin took over, the Commodores are 13-1 SU and 11-2 ATS in the second half of the season, including a 38-24 win over North Carolina State in the 2012 Music City Bowl.

Despite losing three of its last four games, the Cougars finished the year with an impressive 10-2 ATS record, making Houston one of only five FBS schools with a 10 ATS-win season.


GoDaddy Bowl - Sunday Jan. 5, 9 p.m. ET

Ball State Cardinals vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (+9, 64.5)

Ball State is 0-6 SU/ATS lifetime in bowl competition dating back to 1989.

Arkansas State makes its third consecutive appearance in Mobile, defeating Kent State 17-13 last year after losing to Northern Illinois 38-20 in 2011 (1-1 ATS).


BCS National Championship - Monday Jan. 6, 8:30 p.m. ET

Florida State Seminoles vs. Auburn Tigers (+8.5, 67)

The SEC has won seven consecutive BCS national championships, including Cam Newton and Auburn’s title captured in 2010 with a 22-19 win over Oregon. Auburn has five wins over ranked teams this season.

Florida State – the nation’s only unbeaten team – finished the season 11-2 ATS, one of only two FBS teams to boast 11 ATS wins. The other? Auburn.

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Saturday's bowl game line moves

College football bowl season kicks off Saturday with four postseason matchups available for betting. We talk to Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag about the action coming in on these games and where the odds could end up come kickoff:

New Mexico Bowl: Washington State at Colorado State – Open: +3.5, Move: +5.5

Washington State is back in bowl season after an extended drought and bettors expect the Cougars to make the most of it, pumping them up as many as two points at some markets. With 86 percent of the action on WSU, this could be the biggest decision of Saturday’s bowl action.

“On December 10, we got sharp play buying a half point on WSU to -3, so we moved to -4,” says Perry. “On Monday, we moved to -5 because of heavy action on WSU. Earlier today moved to -5.5.”


Las Vegas Bowl: Fresno State vs. USC Trojans – Open: -5.5, Move: -6.5

This line has remained relatively steady at most books, however, some have tacked on an extra points with early money on the Trojans. Books keeping this one under the key number of seven has kept balanced action on the Las Vegas Bowl but injury concerns on both sides have bettors on watch.

“Fresno WR Josh Harper is questionable and USC RB Silas Redd will miss the game,” says Perry. “About 64 percent of the cash is backing the Trojans.”

Idaho Potato Bowl: Buffalo Bulls vs. San Diego State Aztecs – Open: +3.5, Move: -1

This spread is one of the bigger moves of the entire bowl season board, with wiseguy action moving this spread as many as 4.5 points. Sharp money has sided with SDSU since opening and has books worried about this outcome in Idaho due to the frantic pace of the line adjustments.

“Could be a game where the shop loses a good chunk of action because of all the middling opportunities some players have,” says Perry. “Almost split down middle on this game, as 52 percent of money is backing the Aztecs.”


New Orleans Bowl: Tulane vs. UL Lafayette – Open: +1.5, Move: +2.5

With UL Lafayette QB Terrance Broadway expected to miss the New Orleans Bowl, action has picked up on the Green Wave. According to Perry, that announcement and the upgraded statuses of many key Tulane players have money moving this spread.

“Tulane QB Nick Montana, son of the infamous Joe, is probable for game. Green Wave’s leading wideout Ryan Grant is also listed as probable,” he says. “Sixty-three percent of cash is riding the Green Wave.”