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  • #46
    Close Calls - Week 14

    December 10, 2013


    NFL games often go down to the wire, especially relative to the spread. Here are close calls from Week 14 of the NFL season, recapping the spread-changing plays from the fourth quarters around the league. Each week there are several key plays late in games that can change the result or create a misleading final score, get the details in this weekly column.

    Baltimore Ravens (-5½) 29, Minnesota Vikings 26 (41½): Leading 12-7 early in the fourth quarter the Vikings were in a safe position for the underdog cover and those on the ‘under’ or the moneyline had to feel confident before one of the wildest finishes in NFL history. Baltimore found the end zone with 2:05 to play to take a 15-12 lead but just 38 seconds later Toby Gerhart broke a long run to put the Vikings back up by four. The kickoff to Jacoby Jones was then run all the way back for touchdown to Baltimore back on top. With the Vikings getting the ball back a short screen pass turned into a 79-yard touchdown for Cordarrelle Patterson as Minnesota led by four again with just 45 seconds to play, with that touchdown putting the game ‘over’ the total. An interception appeared to end the game but Baltimore was bailed out by a suspect pass interference penalty and the Ravens were out of timeouts and down to the Minnesota nine-yard line with 10 seconds left. Joe Flacco found rookie Marlon Brown in the back of the end zone and Brown just narrowly got his toes down in an incredibly close call with the end line, a play that withstood review.

    New England Patriots (-9½) 27, Cleveland Browns 26 (47½): Those backing the underdog Browns still won but this was another game where the total improbably shifted late and Cleveland somehow failed to cash heavy underdog moneyline tickets. Cleveland scored a touchdown with less than three minutes to go to lead by 12, leaving the total at just 40 with the number at 47½ by kickoff. It did not take long for the Patriots to get in the end zone but they still trailed by five. Incredibly New England was able to pick up the expected onside kick. The Patriots lucked into nearly 30 yards on a borderline pass interference call and a play later New England had taken the lead 27-26, pushing the game ‘over’ in the process as well. The Patriots did not get the two-point conversion and Cleveland nearly rallied for the win as Jason Campbell put the Browns in position for a final kick but the 58-yard kick fell just short despite being right on line.

    Philadelphia (-3) 34, Detroit Lions 20 (53): With heavy snow in Philadelphia the total on this game dropped before game time and with just 20 points through three quarters and several inches of snow built up, the ‘under’ certainly looked safe. Detroit needed to maintain its lead in the NFC North and they had a 14-0 lead late in the third quarter that eventually slipped to just 14-6 before the start of the fourth quarter in a game where kicking was not an option. Both teams scored touchdowns in the first minute of the fourth quarter as the Lions still led by six but the Eagles poured it on late with 20 points in about a 10 minute span led by a few big runs from LeSean McCoy who wound up with 217 yards. Backup running back Chris Polk ran 38 yards for a touchdown with less than three minutes to go for the score that tilted the game ‘over’ despite the poor conditions and the slow start.

    Miami Dolphins (+3) 34, Pittsburgh Steelers 28 (41½): With a Troy Polamalu interception return touchdown the Steelers had a 21-17 lead halfway through the third quarter with two touchdowns in 53 seconds. Miami answered with a touchdown to go back up by three but the Steelers took the lead back early in the fourth quarter. There were four consecutive punts as the clock wound down but Miami broke a 55-yard run to get into the red zone with less than three minutes to go, eventually cashing in with the go-ahead touchdown. Down three with time running down the Steelers had to eventually go for it on 4th and 10 but they failed to convert and made matters worse with a personal foul penalty. Miami did its best to burn some clock but they had to settle for a field goal, keeping the Steelers within six and within one score. Pittsburgh had just a minute to go and no timeouts and on the final play of the game the Steelers completed several laterals and eventually found Antonio Brown with some room on the sidelines. Brown sprinted up the field and appeared to go in for the score but he was ruled to have just stepped out of bounds at the 12 yard line to end the game. The play might not have withstood review with one of the passes looking suspiciously forward but the Steelers just missed an incredible finish as Miami took a big step in the playoff chase.

    Denver Broncos (-12½) 51, Tennessee Titans 28 (50½): The Titans led 21-10 early in this game with a promising start for the huge underdog on the road. Denver scored 24 points consecutively to get past the spread late in the third quarter however. Justin Hunter scored on a big play for the Titans to trim the margin back to six points heading into the fourth quarter. Denver took over in the fourth quarter putting all the cold weather talk to bed as Peyton Manning added to his huge statistical season. Denver scored 17 points in the final frame to pull away as the Broncos had a massive yardage edge of over double what the Titans posted in the game.

    San Francisco 49ers (-2½) 19, Seattle Seahawks 17 (41½): In this tense NFC West clash Seattle took a 14-9 lead with a big play in the passing game late in the third quarter but in the final seconds of the quarter San Francisco was back on top by two, just short of the common spread on the game. The Seahawks added a short field goal with just six minutes to go in the game to take the lead by one. On 1st down after picking up a key 3rd and short, Frank Gore broke loose for the 49ers, seemingly headed to the end zone before going down seemingly on his own accord at the Seattle 18-yard line. Whether intentional or not, ut proved to be a smart play to help the 49ers win the game but those on the 49ers laying -2½ sensed doom as San Francisco carefully used the clock and forced Seattle to exhaust its timeouts. San Francisco converted a key 3rd down conversion to burn more time and then settled for a 22-yard kick to win the game, leaving Seattle with just 26 seconds. Russell Wilson went for it all on 1st down and wound up with an interception as the Seattle receiver dove trying to sell an interference call.

    Green Bay Packers (-3½) 22, Atlanta Falcons 21 (47½): The Falcons had an interception return touchdown right before halftime to lead 21-10 and while the Packers moved the ball well in the third quarter they wound up with only six points on two short field goals, still trailing by five heading into the fourth. Early in the final frame the Packers found the end zone but missed on the two-point try, leaving a one point lead but still with over 12 minutes to go. The Falcons would miss a 52-yard field goal try a few minutes later and then on the next drive they opted to go for it on 4th down instead of a 51-yard field goal attempt with just two minutes to go in the game. They came up short and while the Falcons would get still another chance with the ball late in the game an interception ended the threat and this was the lone cold weather game Sunday that managed to stay ‘under’ the total.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #47
      NCAAF
      Dunkel

      Army vs. Navy
      The Black Knights face a Navy team that is coming off a 58-52 OT win over San Jose State and is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Navy is the pick (-12 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Midshipmen favored by 21 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Navy (-12 1/2).

      SATURDAY, DECEMBER 14

      Game 303-304: Army vs. Navy (3:00 p.m. EST)
      Dunkel Ratings: Army 65.288; Navy 86.864
      Dunkel Line: Navy by 21 1/2; 48
      Vegas Line: Navy by 12 1/2; 53
      Dunkel Pick: Navy (-12 1/2); Under




      NCAAF
      Long Sheet

      Saturday, December 14

      -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      ARMY (3 - 8) vs. NAVY (7 - 4) - 12/14/2013, 3:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      ARMY is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
      ARMY is 12-31 ATS (-22.1 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
      ARMY is 10-31 ATS (-24.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
      NAVY is 135-103 ATS (+21.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
      NAVY is 135-103 ATS (+21.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
      NAVY is 125-95 ATS (+20.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
      NAVY is 63-37 ATS (+22.3 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
      NAVY is 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
      NAVY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      ARMY is 2-0 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons
      NAVY is 2-0 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
      2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      -------------------------------------------------------------------------------




      NCAAF
      Short Sheet

      Saturday, December 14

      Army at Navy, 3:00 ET
      Army: 12-31 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
      Navy: 13-4 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog




      NCAAF

      Saturday, December 14

      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Trend Report
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      3:00 PM
      ARMY vs. NAVY
      Army is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Navy
      Army is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
      Navy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
      The total has gone OVER in 4 of Navy's last 6 games
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #48
        Bowl Trends - Part I

        December 12, 2013


        Bowls scheduled between Saturday, Dec. 21 and Saturday, Dec. 28

        Saturday, December 21

        Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


        COLORADO STATE vs. WASHINGTON STATE (New Mexico Bowl)...CSU 9-4 vs. line in 2013 and 12-4 last 16 on board since late 2012. Also 5-2 last 7 as dog for Jim McElwain. WSU 9-3 vs. line TY and 10-3 last 13 on board, though Mike Leach just 1-4 as chalk since last season. MW teams only 3-7 vs. line in bowls since 2011, but Pac-12 just 6-8 same span. Slight to CSU, based on team trends.


        SOUTHERN CAL vs. FRESNO STATE (Las Vegas Bowl)...When the smoke finally cleared, SC just 6-7 vs. line in 2013, and now 9-17 since 2012 vs. number. Trojans 2-4 vs. line away from Coliseum this season and 2-11 in role since 2012. FSU only 4-7-1 vs. line in 2013 but Bulldogs were 11-2 vs. line in 2012 for DeRuyter, including a humbling bowl loss in Hawaii. SC also humbled in its bowl last season. FSU no covers last 4 in bowls. Fresno State, based on team trends.


        BUFFALO vs. SAN DIEGO STATE (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)...Aztecs no wins or covers last two years in bowls, Buffalo first bowl since 2008. Rocky Long 5-2-1 last 8 on board in 2013, but Buffalo 7-2 last 9 vs. line in 2013. Aztecs 1-6 vs. spread last 7 vs. non-conference foes. Slight to Buffalo, based on team trends.


        LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE at TULANE (New Orleans Bowl)...Third straight visit to this bowl for ULL, which has won and covered in its last two visits. Tulane gets to play on its home field and is bowling for the first time since 2002. Ragin’ Cajuns no covers their last five in 2013 and failed to cover all three vs. FBS non-Sun Belt foes this season. Meanwhile, Wave covered 7 of last 8 this season and was 5-1 vs. spread on its home field and has covered 9 of last 10 at Superdome. Wave moves to new stadium next season. Tulane, based on recent trends.


        Monday, December 23

        Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


        OHIO vs. EAST CAROLINA (Beef O’Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl)...Frank Solich 2-3 vs. line in bowls with Ohio, with wins and covers the past two seasons. ECU 0-2 SU and vs. line in two bowls for Ruffin McNeill. Ohio, however, lost 3 of last 4 SU and 4 of last 5 vs. line in 2013. Pirates 1-4 vs. line last 5 on road this season but did cover 3 of last 4. Solich only 1-3 as dog TY and 2-5 last 7 in role. Slight to Ohio, based on team trends.


        Tuesday, December 24


        Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


        OREGON STATE vs. BOISE STATE (Hawaii Bowl)...Mike Riley has lost and failed to cover last two bowls with Beavs but is still 5-3 SU and vs. spread in bowls at OSU. Boise has won last four bowls SU and is 4-1 vs. line last five bowls. Broncos 1-2 in dog role this season after covering four straight getting points from 2008-12. Broncs only 3-5 vs. line last 8 away from home, however. OSU covered 5 of 6 away from Corvallis this season. Slight to Oregon State, based on team trends.


        Thursday, December 26

        Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


        PITT vs. BOWLING GREEN (Little Caesar’s Bowl)...Panthers lose and fail to cover in bowls tthe last two years, also 1-6-1 vs. line last 8 in 2013. BGSU 10-3 vs. line in 2013, 17-5 last 22 on board, 13-3 last 16 as chalk, 6-1 vs. line away from home TY. Bowling Green, based on team trends.


        UTAH STATE vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (Poinsettia Bowl)...NIU 2-4 SU and vs. line in bowls since 2006. But Huskies were 6-2 vs. spread away from home this season and 10-4 last 14 vs. line away from DeKalb but only 4-5 vs. line against non-MAC foes since LY. MAC teams 7-19 vs. line last 5 years in bowls. Utags 8-5 vs. line TY after 11-2 mark for Gary Andersen LY but only 1-3 as dog in 2013 after covering nine straight in role entering this season. Slight to NIU, based on team trends.


        Friday, December 27


        Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


        MARSHALL vs. MARYLAND (Military Bowl)... Herd 1-8-1 vs. line as favorite away from home since Doc Holliday arrived in 2010. Marshall only 2-5 vs. line away from Huntington this season. Terps 4-2 vs. spread away from College Park in 2013, have also covered last 5 and 6 of last 7 vs. non-ACC foes. Terps 4-1 last five as dog since late LY. Maryland, based on team trends.


        SYRACUSE vs. MINNESOTA (Texas Bowl)...Gophers return to Texas Bowl after LY’s cover vs. Texas Tech. Big Ten teams have recorded winning spread marks in bowls three of past four season. Cuse 7-4-1 vs. line TY and 11-4-1 last 16 on board since late 2012, though just 3-4-1 as dog TY. Gophers 9-3 vs. spread in 2013 (covering last six), and these teams did meet early last season in Minneapolis when Gophers won and covered by 17-10 score. Gophers 7-2 vs. line outside of Big Ten since 2012. Slight to Minnesota, based on team trends.


        WASHINGTON vs. BYU (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)...BYU 2-1 as dog TY but is 11-1 last 12 as dog since midway in the 2012 season. Bronco Mendenhall has won and covered last four bowls (two of those as a dog) and is 6-2 vs. line in bowls since arriving at BYU in 2005. Huskies only 2-3 vs. line away from home this season and were just 2-5 vs. points last seven in 2012. Pac-12 has not had a winning spread bowl record the past four seasons. BYU, based on team trends.


        Saturday, December 28


        Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


        RUTGERS vs. NOTRE DAME (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...’Gers faded late in 2013, covering just 1 of last 6 en route to 4-8 spread mark, now 4-11 last 15 on board since late 2012. But Scarlet Knights were 2-1 as dog TY and are 10-5 in that role since 2011 (3-1 last 4 as DD dog). ‘Gers also 5-2 vs. line last seven bowls. Irish only 5-7 vs. line in 2013 and 2-5 as chalk, also no covers last two years in bowls. Also just 4-8 last 12 as DD chalk. 14-plus bowl dogs only 1-2 LY and 1-6 since 2010, however, reversing earlier strong showings vs. number. Rutgers, based on team trends.


        CINCINNATI vs. NORTH CAROLINA (Belk Bowl)...Heels covered 6 of last 7 this season. Fedora 5-2 as chalk in 2013. Cincy just 3-3 vs. spread away from home in 2013. Tuberville 5-3 vs. line in bowls. Bearcats 2-4 vs. spread last six bowls, but Cincy is 5-1 as dog since LY (2-1 in 2013). Bearcats won and covered this bowl in miraculous fashion vs. Duke last December. Slight to North Carolina, based on recent trends.


        MIAMI-FLA. vs. LOUISVILLE (Russell Athletic Bowl)...Canes did not exactly close with a rush, dropping 6 of last 7 vs. number this season. Which was a turnaround for Al Golden, whose teams had offered good spread value prior (18-6-1 previous 25). Golden teams still 9-4-1 as dog at Miami and 18-8-1 in role since 2008 at Temple & with Canes. L’ville needed OT to get cover in last game of reg.-season slate vs. Cincy, had dropped 6 of 7 vs. number prior. Charlie Strong only 11-18 as chalk since 2011 campaign. Miami, based on extended Al Golden/Charlie Strong trends.


        MICHIGAN vs. KANSAS STATE (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)...Bill Snyder no covers in bowls the past three seasons, in fact K-State has now failed to cover its last seven bowl games dating to 2001. Both teams 7-5 vs. line in 2013, though Wolverines covered their last three, and Brady Hoke was 3-1 as dog this season. KSU 3-5 vs. line last eight vs. non-conference foes. Slight to Michigan, based on team trends.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #49
          Bowl Trends - Part II

          December 12, 2013


          Bowls scheduled between Monday, Dec. 30 and Monday, Jan. 6

          Monday, December 3

          Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


          MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE vs. NAVY (Armed Forces Bowl)...Mids 1-3 vs. line last four bowls after covering previous four bowl appearances. Navy did cover five of last six n 2013. Mids 3-2 as chalk this season after 4-10 mark in role previous two years. MTSU just 1-6 vs. line last 7 away from home although Blue Raiders were 5-2 vs. spread away from Murfreesboro LY. Slight to MTSU, based on team trends.


          OLE MISS vs. GEORGIA TECH (Music City Bowl)...Hugh Freeze cooled off a bit vs. number this season, only 6-6 vs. line after 20-5 the past two seasons. Rebs no covers last three away from home TY after covering 7 of previous 8 away from Oxford. GT just 1-4 vs. line last five years in bowls for Paul Johnson and 2-6 last 8 bowls vs. spread, Jackets also 0-4 as dog this season. Slight to Ole Miss, based on team trends.

          TEXAS vs. OREGON (Alamo Bowl)...Ducks have covered last two and 4 of last 6 bowls, though Oregon dropped last four vs. number this season. Ducks also lost last two away from Eugene this season after covering previous eight away from Autzen Stadium. Horns have covered last two years in bowls but only 4-5 vs. line in postseason since 2003. Horns 1-2 as dog this season, 6-10 getting points since 2009 campaign. Slight to Oregon, based on team trends.


          TEXAS TECH vs. ARIZONA STATE (Holiday Bowl)...TT hit the skids down the stretch in 2013, losing and failing to cover its last five games. Red Raiders also 1-6 vs. line in bowls since 2005, and TT just 2-7 as dog since 2012. Sun Devils 6-6 vs. spread away from home since Todd Graham arrived LY. Graham 14-6 as chalk since LY. ASU, based on team trends.


          Tuesday, December 31

          Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

          BOSTON COLLEGE vs. ARIZONA (Adocare V100 Independence Bowl)...BC first bowl since 2010, when it covered vs. Nevada in the Kraft Bowl, but had failed to cover four previous in postseason. BC 6-3 last nine vs. line in 2013. Eagles 3-2 as dog this season but 2-4 vs. line away, 2-10 vs. spread away since 2012. Cats only 3-6 last 9 vs. spread TY and 1-4 last 5 away from Tucson. UA no covers last 3 as chalk TY after covering previous five as favorite. Cats no covers last three bowls. Rich-Rod 1-6 vs. line in bowls. BC, based on team trends.


          VIRGINIA TECH vs. UCLA (Sun Bowl)...Frank Beamer 5-6-1 vs. line last 11 years in bowls, UCLA 3-3 vs. spread its last six bowl appearances. VPI 4-7-1 vs. line TY, 12-26-1 vs. line last 39 on board. Hokies were 2-1 as dog TY but 3-5-1 as dog since 2010. VPI 3-9-1 last 13 on board vs. non-ACC teams. Jim Mora’s Bruins are 16-10 vs. line since last season, 8-5 vs. line away from Rose Bowl. UCLA, based on team trends.


          MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. RICE (Liberty Bowl)...MSU no covers last two years in bowls. Bulldogs did cover last four in 2013, but MSU 3-7 vs. spread last 10 away from Starkville. Rice covered its bowl LY and is 2-0 SU and vs. spread in bowls for David Bailiff. Owls 14-6 last 20 on board, also 7-2 last nine as dog. Rice, based on team trends.


          DUKE vs. TEXAS A&M (Chick fil-A Bowl)...Ags no covers last three or six of last eight this season, also no covers in all four games away from College Station. Duke covered 7 of last 8 in 2013 and was 5-2 as dog this season. A&M 1-6 vs. line last seven bowls dating to the Franchione years. Duke, based on team trends.


          Wednesday, January 1

          Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


          NEBRASKA vs. GEORGIA (Gator Bowl)...Huskers no wins or covers last three bowls for Bo Pelini including against same Georgia in Capital One Bowl last season. Pelini 2-1 as dog in 2013 but was 0-5 in role previous two seasons. Mark Richt 5-2 vs. line last seven bowls, though Dawgs only 4-8 vs. line in 2013 and 2-4 vs. spread away from home. Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.


          UNLV vs, NORTH TEXAS (Dallas Bowl)...First bowl for UNLV since 2000 season, first bowl for UNT since 2004. Mean Green won and covered 6 of last 7 TY and is 10-3 vs. spread since late in the 2012 campaign. UNT 7-2 as chalk this season. Rebs covered 5 of last 6 and 8 of last 10 this season, but 1-4 vs. line last 5 away from home vs. non-MW foes. Prior to covering 4 of 5 away this season, Rebs were 3-20 vs. spread previous 23 away from home. North Texas, based on team trends.


          WISCONSIN vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (Capital One Bowl)...Spurrier only 1-4 vs. line in bowls the past five seasons, 2-5 vs. spread in bowls with Gamecocks since 2005. Badgers 9-3 vs. line in 2013 (includes spread losses in last two games) and 15-6-1 last 22 on board since mid 2012. Gary Andersen teams 20-5 vs. spread since LY at USU and Wiscy. Badgers 5-3-1 vs. line last nine bowls. Slight to Wiscy, based on team trends

          IOWA vs. LSU (Outback Bowl)...Rematch of Jan. 1, 2005 Cap One Bowl when Iowa scored on bomb on last play to beat LSU 30-25 in Nick Saban’s last game as Tigers coach. Hawkeyes 4-1 vs. line last five bowls and Kirk Ferentz 2-1 as dog this season, though only 3-7 in role previous two years. Les Miles 1-3 vs. line last four bowls, and Tigers just 4-7 vs. spread last 11 away from Baton Rouge. Slight to Iowa, based on team trends


          MICHIGAN STATE vs. STANFORD (Rose Bowl)...Fourth straight BCS bowl for Stanford, 2-0-1 vs. line in those games since 2010 season. First MSU Rose Bowl since Jan. 1, 1988 vs. Southern Cal, a 20-17 Spartans win. MSU 9-2 vs. line last 11 in 2013, while Dantonio 3-0 as dog this season and 10-2 in role since 2011. Michigan State, based on Dantonio dog marks.

          UCF vs. BAYLOR (Fiesta Bowl)...Bears 9-3 vs. line TY and 15-3 last 18 on board, but just 2-5 as chalk away from home since 2011. UCF 3-0 as dog in 2013, and O’Leary 5-2 last 7 as DD dog since 2009. UCF, based on team trends.


          Thursday, January 2

          Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

          OKLAHOMA vs. ALABAMA (Sugar Bowl)...Bob Stoops faced Bama in 2002 & ’03 and won both SU, though failing to cover each. Sooners won and covered last two as road dog in 2013 but had dropped previous three spread decisions in rare dog role. Stoops 3-7 vs. line last 10 howls. Bama has won and covered its last four bowls, and Saban 14-6 last 20 as chalk away from Tuscaloosa. Slight to Bama, based on team trends.


          Friday, January 3

          Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

          OKLAHOMA STATE vs. MISSOURI (Cotton Bowl)...Old Big 12 rivals. OSU won and covered last three meetings thru 2011. OSU 4-3 vs. line in bowls for Gundy. Cowboys 7-3 vs. spread last 10 away from Stillwater, and OSU 8-4 vs. spread in 2013, 33-15-1 last 49 on board. Pinkel 4-4 vs. line in bowls with Mizzou and Tigers 10-3 vs. line this season. Slight to OSU, based on extended trends.


          CLEMSON vs. OHIO STATE (Orange Bowl)...Dabo returns to Orange Bowl, where Clemson was swamped by WVU two years ago. Dabo 2-3 vs. line in bowls but did upset LSU YR in Chick- fil-A. Tigers 1-2 as dog TY but 5-3 in role since 2011. Buckeyes 7-3 vs. line in bowls dating to Jim Tressel’s first season of 2001. Urban Meyer 6-1 vs. line in bowls at Utah & Florida, but Buckeyes no covers last four this season. Slight to Clemson, based on team trends.


          Saturday, January 4

          Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

          HOUSTON vs. VANDERBILT (BBVA Compass Bowl)...Cougs 10-2 vs. spread in 2013, 12-2 last 14 on board since late 2012. UH has also covered its last five as a dog and 7 straight away from home. Vandy only 1-3 as chalk this season after 11-3 in role previous two years for James Franklin. Dores 8-2 vs. line last 10 away from home stadium, but Vandy just 1-3 vs. lien against non-SEC this season. Houston, based on current trends.


          Sunday, January 5

          Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

          ARKANSAS STATE vs. BALL STATE (GoDaddy.com Bowl)...Pete Lembo 8-4 vs. line TY, 17-8 since 2012, 22-09 last 31 on board. Also 13-5 last 18 vs. line away from Muncie, 11-4 last 15 as chalk. Ark State changing coaches again before its bowl, but Red Wolves only 5-7 vs. lien in 2013 despite covering 4 of last 5 on board. Ball State, based on team trends.


          Monday, January 6

          Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


          AUBURN vs. FLORIDA STATE (BCS Championship from Pasadena)... Auburn won last 99 SU and covered last 10 in 2013. Tigers 3-0 last three as dog or pick ‘em this season. Gus Malzahn 19-6 vs. spread last two years at Ark State & Auburn. Jimbo 3-0 SU and vs. line in bowls and Nole shave actually covered last nine bowl games! FSU has covered last 6 in 2013 and is 11-2 vs. spread this season. Slight to Auburn, based on Malzahn trends.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #50
            Where the action is: Early NCAAF bowl line moves

            Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

            Boise State Broncos vs. Oregon State Beavers – Open: +2.5, Move: Pick, Move: -3

            The Broncos, usually bowl season darlings, aren’t getting the usual love from football bettors. Early sharp money kick started the initial move from OSU +2.5 to pick’em and the public followed suit, betting the Beavers and flipping this spread on its ear.

            “All this was on Monday when we first opened up our Bowl numbers,” Stewart says of the line movement. “After more money kept showing on Oregon State, just this morning we went to Oregon State -3 (-105) / Boise State +3 (-115). That is a very significant move and just after two days of action, going nearly four points off the opener, which pretty much tells you we opened with a bad number.”


            Capital One Bowl

            Wisconsin Badgers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks – Open: Wisconsin -2, Move: Pick

            Bettors are known for siding with the SEC during bowl season, and the Capital One Bowl is no different. Books opened the Badgers as 2-point chalk but early action from wiseguys has bullied this spread all the way to a pick’em.

            “We skipped going to -1 and went straight to a pick, which is our current number,” says Stewart. “While we’ve started to see some money on Wisconsin, we’re still seeing South Carolina money. I’m not sure when we’ll get there, but I have a feeling at some point over this weekend we will make South Carolina the favorite in this game.”


            Chick-Fil-A Bowl

            Texas A&M Aggies vs. Duke Blue Devils - Open: +13, Move: +12.5

            Action started out balanced on this New Year’s Eve bowl but sharps came in on Duke Tuesday morning, trimming the line half a point. Since that adjustment, it’s been nothing but Aggies action and a move back to the original number may happen before the end of the week.

            “We knew our opener of -13 was a bit high and understood the sharp money taking the points here, but at some point we might be going back to 13 to stem the early exposure that we seeing on Texas A&M at -12.5,” says Stewart. “Being that this is Johnny Manziel’s last college football game, we know the public is going to be all over A&M and we’ll be shading high on this game in anticipation of all that public money.”


            Rose Bowl

            Michigan State Spartans vs. Stanford Cardinal – Open: -3, Move: -4.5

            It seems wiseguys aren’t impressed with Michigan State’s victory against an overrated Ohio State side in the Big Ten title game. Instant action came in Stanford from the sharps, moving this spread as many as 1.5 points before bettors decided MSU was worth the wager.

            “We felt that after watching Michigan State upset Ohio State in impressive fashion, that we’d definitely book some money on what we perceived to being a live dog,” says Stewart. “That just wasn’t the case, until we got to the number +4.5 and that’s where we’re starting to see some Michigan State money show.”
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #51
              Four best non-BCS bowls to watch and wager

              Just like a kid waiting for Christmas morning, college football bettors are counting down the minutes until New Year’s Day, when the BCS bowls kick off.

              While you wait it out for the big boys to clash, don’t put blinders on to the rest of bowl season. Here are four great non-BCS bowls to watch and wager on this holiday season:

              Holiday Bowl: Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (+13.5)

              Don’t let that near two-touchdown spread fool you. This could be one of the most entertaining bowl games – BCS or not – this entire bowl season.

              The Red Raiders have the offensive weaponry to keep pace with ASU, averaging 35.7 points per game and airing it out for the second most yards in the country (392 yards per game). The Sun Devils come in deflated after a loss at home in the Pac-12 title game and could be walking into a shootout on Dec. 30.


              Advocare V100 Bowl: Arizona Wildcats vs. Boston College (+7.5)

              This New Year’s Eve bowl game will turn into a track meet between two of the most dynamic running backs in college football.

              Boston College stud rusher and Heisman finalist Andre Williams – the nation’s top runner (2,102 yards) – takes on Arizona RB Ka'Deem Carey, who ranked fifth in the country with 1,720 yards on the ground. Many in the Tucson area believe Carey was snubbed by the Heisman folks and that the Wildcats will use the bowl stage to showcase their star player. Could be value in the Under with both teams looking to tear up the turf.


              Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Duke Blue Devils vs. Texas A&M Aggies (-11.5)

              There are a couple reasons why this spread sits at a brow-furrowing 11.5 points. The Blue Devils are one of the surprise teams this season, going 10-3 SU and ATS. While Duke did get rolled by Florida State in the ACC title game, you can’t discount the Blue Devils for losing to a team that’s favored by almost nine points in the BCS Championship.

              And the other reason is actually more of a question: Where is Johnny Manziel’s head going to be in his final college game? The former Heisman winner will likely jump to the pros after this New Year’s Eve performance. Will he go all out to boost his draft stock or get caught looking past Duke after a disappointing season?


              Capital One Bowl: South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1)

              The nation’s most destructive defensive force – Gamecocks DL Jadeveon Clowney – runs into one of the most rock-solid offensive lines, with South Carolina and Wisconsin clashing at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando.

              Clowney is another pro-ready talent likely making the leap to Sundays, but his stock took a knock this week when he was flagged for speeding – going 110 mph in a 70 zone. The Badgers consistently have one of the better offensive lines in the land. Wisconsin allowed only 15 sacks for a total of just 87 yards lost and averaged only five tackles for a loss allowed per game on the season. It’s a classic “unstoppable force meets immovable object” showdown.

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              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • #52
                Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

                To me, the six most interesting bowl games........

                -- Texas Tech-Arizona State-- Tech used a freshman walk-on QB who had a good year, but now the kid transferred; why no scholarship?

                -- Arkansas State-Ball State-- This is 4th year in row Arkansas St's coach bolted after one season, yet they keep winning.

                -- Oklahoma-Alabama-- Lot of history with these two programs.

                -- Duke-Texas A&M-- Johnny Manziel's last college game?

                -- Clemson-Ohio State-- How many times are they going to show Woody Hayes punching that Clemson kid back in their 1978 bowl game?

                -- Auburn-Florida State-- Analysts had FSU -13, but the public loves the SEC's Tigers, so the line was set at -9, is now 8 or 8.5.


                *****

                Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here.......

                13) I’d be curious to know how Brad Stevens is enjoying coaching the Celtics; is it more/less enjoyable than college, how he feels about dealing with the press, etc. We know the money is better in the NBA and there is very little recruiting (except for during free agency, but the GM probably does more of that). No way of finding out, but would be interesting to know.

                12) Media reports said “1B Mark Trumbo” was traded to Arizona this week; well the second he became a Diamondback, he became a “3B/OF” since Paul Goldschmidt has 1B locked up in the desert.

                11) Very unusual that Kansas Jayhawks are going 28 days without a home basketball game; you think Duke would ever do that? Jayhawks challenge themselves on road, which is why they get better late in seasons. Not lot of bigtime teams go four weeks without a home game.

                10) Gonzaga at West Virginia on a Tuesday night in December? Long way to go for one game, especially during the school week. According to MapQuest, its 2,320 miles from Spokane to Morgantown.

                Lot of time to study on the plane.

                9) Thumbs up to Brooklyn Nets’ uniforms, simple black/white but very sharp. Too bad the team that wears those uniforms is having such a dreadful year, but at least they look good in warmups.

                8) NHL has surprising amount of stuff that is better than other sports: the best playoffs, by far, the best instant replay system, and the shootout is a surprisingly fun way to eliminate tie games. Wish they’d eliminate fighting, but guess that ain’t gonna happen.

                7) I’m old enough that my high school didn’t have girls’ basketball until I was in 10th or 11th grade; will never forget watching one game, and our team wasn’t good the first couple years, but this one girl shot 5-42 in one game and this was before 3-pointers.

                I’m not making this up, she was 5 for freakin’ 42, it was amazing. She was a smart girl, in AP classes but she made Machine Gun Grant look like John Stockton. Long year for the coach; eventually, their girls' program became better than the boys' but it took a while.

                6) One of the tricky things about handicapping college basketball in December is finding out when transfers become eligible; there are some good players who become eligible as soon as first semester ends and then those teams have to integrate the new player, often a key player into the lineup. Once we get past New Year’s, there are less variables since most coaches will have a more established rotation.

                5) LA Kings are playing a hockey game at Dodger Stadium January 25 against Anaheim, seriously they are; one thing to play outdoors in Edmonton or Buffalo, but Los Angeles? Will be curious to see how that looks on TV.

                Its a 6:30 local start, to eliminate the chances of the sun messing with the ice.

                4) Lot of people in Seattle won’t go to Starbucks because it was the owner of Starbucks who sold the NBA’s Super Sonics to Clay Bennett, who he knew would move the team out of Seattle to Oklahoma.

                Little bit mystifying why the NBA won’t put another team in Seattle; they put another team in Charlotte and Seattle is a way better NBA market than Charlotte.

                3) Providence lost starting PG Kris Dunn (knee) for the season; tough break, Ed Cooley’s team has gotten a lot better, but with new rules, game has become even more PG-dependent.

                2) Wind chill in Green Bay Wednesday morning was around 40 below; I know the weather here in upstate NY can get dicey, but its seldom that bad. Why the hell does anyone live there?

                One Christmas here when I was a kid it was that cold, and we couldn’t go to our cousins’ house because the car wouldn’t start, which was fine with me, since it was too damn cold to be outside anyway. I’ll be tempted to move to a warmer place when I retire form the day job in a year or so.

                1) Those analystics guys the Mariners are using now aren’t important in identifying Robinson Cano, a drunk guy could do that, but now they have to find complimentary players who will help Seattle win and that can be tricky.

                Setup men, a backup catcher, stockpiling depth in AAA, that’s where the number crunchers can find a hidden gem that scouts overlook.

                That’s where the Marlins failed; they just threw a lot of money at a problem and assumed they’d have a good team when the dust settled; there’s an art to it and its why teams like Tampa Bay/Oakland often exceed expectations- they have the art down pat.
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • #53
                  Handicapping bowl season's biggest betting totals

                  Sky-high bowl totals are becoming the norm with the pass-heavy, all-offense evolution of college football.

                  Last season saw six bowl games with totals of 70 points or more, including a record-high 82-point total in the Holiday Bowl between Baylor and UCLA.

                  This bowl season, there are just two bowl games with Over/Unders at 70 points or more – the Holiday Bowl between Arizona State and Texas Tech (70), and the Chick-fil-A Bowl featuring Texas A&M and Duke (72).

                  Since 1985, there have been 26 bowl totals of 70 points or more. Those games have gone a combined 15-11 O/U, including a 2-4 O/U record during last year’s bowl season. And bowl totals of 74 points and above are 8-4 O/U over the past 27 years.

                  Here are the 12 highest bowl totals since 1985:

                  82 – Baylor 49, UCLA 26 (Dec. 27, 2012)
                  80 – Baylor 67, Washington 56 (Dec. 29, 2011)
                  79 – Arizona 49, Nevada 48 (Dec. 15, 2012)
                  78.5 – Louisville 44, Boise State 40 (Dec. 31, 2004)
                  77.5 – Tulsa 63, Bowling Green 7 (Jan. 6, 2008)
                  77 – Hawaii 59, UAB 40 (Dec. 24, 2004)
                  75.5 – Hawaii 54, Houston (Dec. 25, 2003)
                  75 – Oregon 42, Oklahoma State 31 (Dec. 30, 2008)
                  74.5 – Tulsa 62, Hawaii 35 (Dec. 24, 2010)
                  74 – UCLA 50, Northwestern 38 (Dec. 30, 2005)
                  74 – Oregon 45, Wisconsin 38 (Jan. 2, 2012)
                  74 – Oregon 35, Kansas State 17 (Jan. 3, 2013)
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Betting college football bowl season's coaching moves

                    We’re heading into bowl season, a time when some coaches are on the hot seat and when rising coaches and hot-shot coordinators are often on the move. Such moves can represent good opportunities for spot bets. Here’s a quick snapshot of the coaching carousel:

                    USC Trojans (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS)

                    Holiday Bowl: -6 vs. Fresno State

                    Earlier this month, USC hired Steve Sarkisian away from Washington, prompting interim Trojans coach Ed Orgeron to quit before USC’s Las Vegas Bowl date with Fresno State on Dec. 21. In the interim, Clay Helton will lead USC – becoming the school’s third coach this season. Orgeron picked up the pieces and engineered a 6-2 SU finish to the season (5-3 ATS), and the Trojans would’ve run through a wall for him in the bowl game. But the players might not feel the same way about Helton.


                    Washington Huskies (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS)

                    Fight Hunger Bowl: -3 BYU

                    The Huskies hired Chris Petersen away from Boise State, leaving Washington with interim coach Marques Tuiasosopo in the Fight Hunger Bowl vs. Brigham Young. Washington players are likely feeling the sting of Sarkisian spurning them for a Pac-12 rival. Perhaps they rise up for the bowl game.


                    Boise State Broncos (8-4, 6-6 ATS)

                    Hawaii Bowl: +2.5 vs. Oregon State

                    Interim coach Bob Gregory has the reins at Boise State. Chris Petersen led the Broncos to their greatest heights, including two BCS bowl victories. This year, Boise State goes to the Hawaii Bowl against Oregon State. Not exactly a BCS game. In fact, not even the same area code. Could a letdown follow? Bettors seem to think so, moving BSU from -2.5 to +2.5.


                    Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

                    GoDaddy Bowl: +9 vs. Ball State

                    Arkansas State coach Bryan Harsin jumped to Boise State to replace Petersen, so the Red Wolves will have interim coach John Thompson for the GoDaddy Bowl against Ball State. This line has jumped from -8 to -9 at some books.


                    Michigan State Spartans (12-1 SU, 8-4-1 ATS)

                    Rose Bowl: +4.5 vs. Stanford

                    Michigan State defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi is another hot prospect, having led a unit that is arguably the best in the nation. He already spurned Connecticut, so he might actually stick around to finish the job against Stanford in the Rose Bowl.


                    Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

                    Pinstripe Bowl: -15.5 vs. Rutgers

                    Notre Dame, a 15.5-point favorite against Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl, has lost two key assistants. Defensive coordinator Bob Diaco bolted for the head coaching job at Connecticut, just a week after offensive coordinator Chuck Martin left to become head coach at Miami of Ohio.


                    Bowling Green Falcons (10-3 SU, 10-3 ATS)

                    Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: -5 vs. Pittsburgh

                    Bowling Green’s Dave Clawson, whose squad upset Northern Illinois in the MAC title game, jumped ship to Wake Forest. So Bowling Green will lean on interim coach Adam Scheier against Pittsburgh in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. The Falcons have dropped from -6 to -5 since Clawson’s departure.


                    Coaching moves to watch

                    The Mack Brown-Nick Saban soap opera continues. Brown is rumored to be resigning this week from Texas, which faces Oregon (-14) in the Alamo Bowl, and rumor has it Texas is offering piles of cash to Alabama’s Saban, who has a Sugar Bowl date with Oklahoma (+15). … Nebraska coach Bo Pelini is definitely on the hot seat heading into a meeting with Georgia (+9) in the Gator Bowl.
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      NCAAF
                      Dunkel

                      Army vs. Navy
                      The Black Knights face a Navy team that is coming off a 58-52 OT win over San Jose State and is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Navy is the pick (-12 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Midshipmen favored by 21 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Navy (-12 1/2).

                      SATURDAY, DECEMBER 14

                      Game 303-304: Army vs. Navy (3:00 p.m. EST)
                      Dunkel Ratings: Army 65.288; Navy 86.864
                      Dunkel Line: Navy by 21 1/2; 48
                      Vegas Line: Navy by 12 1/2; 53
                      Dunkel Pick: Navy (-12 1/2); Under




                      NCAAF
                      Long Sheet

                      Saturday, December 14

                      -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      ARMY (3 - 8) vs. NAVY (7 - 4) - 12/14/2013, 3:00 PM
                      Top Trends for this game.
                      ARMY is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
                      ARMY is 12-31 ATS (-22.1 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
                      ARMY is 10-31 ATS (-24.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
                      NAVY is 135-103 ATS (+21.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
                      NAVY is 135-103 ATS (+21.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
                      NAVY is 125-95 ATS (+20.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
                      NAVY is 63-37 ATS (+22.3 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
                      NAVY is 33-14 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
                      NAVY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons.

                      Head-to-Head Series History
                      ARMY is 2-0 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons
                      NAVY is 2-0 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
                      2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

                      -------------------------------------------------------------------------------




                      NCAAF
                      Short Sheet

                      Saturday, December 14

                      Army at Navy, 3:00 ET
                      Army: 12-31 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest
                      Navy: 13-4 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog




                      NHL
                      Armadillo's Write-Up

                      Saturday, December 14

                      Navy won its last 11 games with Army (7-4 vs spread) which is always on a neutral field- they won their last three games overall, scoring 47.4 ppg and are going to a bowl to play Middle Tennessee; Middies are 2-2 as a favorite this year. Army lost its last four games, allowing 36.3 ppg; they're 2-5 as a dog in 2013, losing four of five road games, with only win over Louisiana Tech on a neutral field. Last seven games in this run-dominated series stayed under the total.




                      NCAAF

                      Saturday, December 14

                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Trend Report
                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      3:00 PM
                      ARMY vs. NAVY
                      Army is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Navy
                      Army is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
                      Navy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
                      The total has gone OVER in 4 of Navy's last 6 games


                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




                      NCAAF

                      Saturday, December 14

                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Army vs. Navy: What bettors need to know
                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen (-13, 53)

                      Game will be played at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia

                      One of the oldest rivalries in college football has been a one-sided affair of late - and the early line suggests more of the same is in order as the Army Black Knights visit the Navy Midshipmen in the 114th edition of the Army-Navy game. Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field is the site of the latest battle between the two storied military schools. Navy comes in having won the last 11 matchups, squeaking out a 17-13 decision last year to improve to 57-49-7 in the series.

                      While the story off the field has been Army's inability to solve the Midshipmen, the focus on the field will be on which team can establish a more robust ground game. The Midshipmen struggled on defense but boasts the second-best rush attack in the nation, averaging more than 323 yards per game. Navy is right behind them at 320 rushing yards per contest, and is led by sophomore quarterback Keenan Reynolds and his mind-boggling 26 rushing touchdowns.

                      TV: 3 p.m. ET, CBS
                      LINE: Navy enters as a 13-point fave, with the over/under set at 53.
                      WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with a 90 percent chance of rain and/or snow. Wind will blow across the width of the field at 6 mph.

                      ABOUT ARMY (3-8): The Midshipmen were set to challenge for their first .500 season since 2010, but dropped four straight games heading into its finale to fall to 8-27 over the past three years. As good as the rushing game has been - eight different players have recorded at least one score on the ground - the passing game averages just 80 yards per outing while generating just four touchdowns in 11 games. Running back Terry Baggett leads the team with 1,072 rushing yards, while quarterback Angel Santiago actually has more yards on the ground (553) than through the air (542).

                      ABOUT NAVY (7-4): Reynolds had his share of impressive games in 2013 - scoring three or more touchdowns five times heading into mid-November - but saved his best work for the Midshipmen's thrilling 58-52 triple-overtime victory over San Jose State. The Antioch, Tenn., native exploded for 240 yards and seven rushing scores, leaving him one TD shy of the single-season record for a quarterback shared by Ricky Dobbs and Collin Klein. Ten different Navy players scored a rushing touchdown, while the Midshipmen racked up 43 scores on the ground compared to eight through the air.

                      TRENDS:

                      * Black Knights are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games following a bye week.
                      * Midshipmen are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an SU win.
                      * Under is 10-1 in Army's last 11 neutral-site games.
                      * Under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings.


                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




                      NCAAF

                      Saturday, December 14

                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Does winter weather give value to Over in Army-Navy?
                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      Philadelphia football fans are in for another wild winter game when Army takes on Navy at Lincoln Financial Field Saturday.

                      Almost a week after the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions scored a combined 54 points in the middle of a blizzard, the annual meeting between armed forces is expected to get hit with snow and ice.

                      The forecast in Philadelphia is calling for a 100 percent chance snow, changing to ice pellets later in the game. Temperatures will dip below freezing and winds will blow ENE at 8 mph.

                      Both the Black Knights and Midshipmen rely heavily on the spread option offense, ranking No. 2 and No. 3 in rushing yards per game, respectively. While the knee-jerk reaction to winter weather in football games is to take the Under, last Sunday’s NFL game in Philadelphia proved otherwise.
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        My Pick:

                        Navy (-12 1/2);

                        Under 51
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Early Bowl Outlook

                          December 9, 2013


                          It happens nearly every single season. Pundits galore spend early November talking about how three or four teams are going to stay undefeated. This year many felt like Oregon, Ohio State, Florida State and Alabama would remain unscathed.

                          Turns out, only the Seminoles completed the season without a defeat. The Ducks actually lost twice, while Alabama and Ohio State lost to Auburn and Michigan State, respectively.

                          Therefore, FSU and Auburn will meet in the final BCS Championship Game in Pasadena. Most books are listing the ‘Noles as 8½-point favorites with a total of 65 or 65½. The Tigers are +260 on the money line (risk $100 to win $260).

                          Gus Malzahn’s team beat Missouri by a 59-42 count to win the SEC in a pick ‘em affair at the Ga. Dome. Tre Mason rushed for 304 yards and four touchdowns to pace AU.

                          FSU thumped Duke by a 45-7 count as a 29-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game. The ‘Noles are back in the title game for the first time since losing to Oklahoma 13-2 in 2000.

                          Alabama was forced to settle for a trip to the Sugar Bowl where it will take on Oklahoma. Most spots have the Crimson Tide as a 15-point favorite.

                          The last time Nick Saban’s team went to the Superdome in New Orleans, it spanked LSU 21-0 to win it all two seasons ago. However, in its last Sugar Bowl appearance, the Tide lost outright to Utah as nine-point favorite in 2008.

                          Bob Stoops’s squad finished the year on a high note with a win at Oklahoma State in the Bedlam showdown in Stillwater. The Sooners had three straight bowl games until getting smashed by Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl last year.

                          In the Orange Bowl, Ohio St. is a 2½-point favorite vs. Clemson. Both schools will be in bounce-back mode. The Buckeyes suffered their first defeat of Urban Meyer’s tenure against Michigan St., while the Tigers lost at South Carolina in their regular-season finale.

                          We’ve got a great Rose Bowl matchup between Michigan St. and Stanford. Most books have made the Cardinal a four-point favorite. The Spartans have won nine in a row since dropping a 17-13 decision at Notre Dame on Sept. 21.

                          Baylor will take on UCF at the Fiesta Bowl as both schools will be making their debuts in a BCS bowl game. The Bears are heavily favored by 16½ or 17. They closed the regular season by beating up on Texas, while the Golden Knights barely escaped Dallas with a win over SMU.

                          The best non-BCS game looks like Wisconsin vs. South Carolina in Orlando at the Capital One Bowl. The Gamecocks are 2½-point underdogs.

                          Missouri is favored by 1½ over Oklahoma St. in the Cotton Bowl, while Texas A&M is favored by 12½ over Duke at the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

                          In the Outback Bowl, Iowa and LSU will square off. The Tigers, 7½-point favorites, will be without QB Zach Mettenberger. This is a rematch of the 2005 Capital One Bowl won by the Hawkeyes on a Hail Mary on the game’s final play. It also turned out to be Nick Saban’s final game at LSU.

                          Nebraska and Georgia will collide in Jacksonville at the Gator Bowl for a rematch of last season’s Capital One Bowl. The Bulldogs rallied to beat the Cornhuskers 45-31 as eight-point favorites last year. Senior QB Aaron Murray won’t be able to play for UGA, nor will Taylor Martinez for Nebraska.
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Inside the stats: Best trends and numbers for pre-New Year's bowls

                            For the longest time College Bowl games played before New Year’s Day were deemed minor bowls. Those played from January 1st out were the main or major bowl games.

                            That all changed when the Go Daddy’s and other lesser, lightweight bowl games were created to fill a need for cable television broadcasting rights.

                            Hence, none of the bowl games on the docket prior to New Year’s Day are considered of the heavyweight variety. Instead they are largely populated by two classes of teams: those who suffered disturbing late losses and fell out of major bowl consideration, and those who scraped and clawed and earned a bowl bid thanks to a strong second-half effort.

                            Let take a look this year’s pre-New Year’s Day bowl card shapes up. All stats are from the 2013 PLAYBOOK Bowl Stat Report.

                            Conference Call

                            Like teams and coaches, conferences too develop bowl personalities.

                            Our database dug deep and found these noteworthy pre-New Year’s Day conference trends. All results are ATS dating back as far as 1980, unless noted otherwise.

                            ACC: 19-8 as dogs versus an opponent off a win (Miami Florida, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech).

                            Big 10: 12-3-1 off back-to-back losses (Michigan and Minnesota).

                            Big 12: 2-8 as dogs versus .750 or greater opponent (Texas and Texas Tech)

                            CUSA: 10-3 as dog 7 or more off a win (Rice)

                            MAC: 1-7 off loss of 8 or more points (Buffalo and Northern Illinois)

                            MWC: 1-6 versus .800 or greater opponent (Utah State)

                            PAC 12: 1-11 favorite 6 or more points versus opponent off a loss (Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon)

                            SEC: 1-8 as a favorite of 8 or more points (Texas A&M)


                            Second-Half Ups and Downs

                            The pre-New Year’s Day bowl team whose second half overall stats (from Game 7 out as opposed to the first six games of the season) improved the most was Middle Tennessee State, whose +108 net yards per game improvement tops the pack.

                            Nipping at the Blue Raiders’ beak were Colorado State and Rice, each showing +83 net stat YPG improvement over the 2nd half of the season.

                            The pre-New Year’s Day bowl team whose overall team stats regressed the most from Game 7 out was Miami Florida, who slipped a whopping -130 net YPG during the 2nd half of the campaign.

                            Other teams going backward dramatically after the midway point included Texas Tech (-105) and Oregon (-101).


                            Winner, Winner Chicken Dinner

                            It’s important analyzing pre-New Year’s bowl contestants on a performance scale in games against teams that owned a winning record at the time of the meeting this season.

                            The best pre-New Year’s Day bowl teams from a straight up perspective this year were Fresno State (3-0) and Louisiana Lafayette (3-0).

                            On the opposite end of the SU ladder was Boise State (0-3).

                            When the money was on the line, this year’s pre-New Year’s Day best spread beater in games against winning opposition was Boston College (5-0).

                            And the only minor-bowl squad still looking for its first paycheck in games against a winning opponent this season is East Carolina (0-3).


                            Tale Of The Tape

                            Another interesting slant is weighing teams and their performance in games against other fellow bowl teams this season.

                            The best pre-New Year’s Day bowl spread beater against other bowl foes was Bowling Green (4-0).

                            The biggest pre-New Year’s Day bowl spread money loser was Texas Tech (0-5), followed closely by Pittsburgh (1-7-1).

                            In games “In The Stats” (net overall yards versus opponent’s net overall yards), the biggest pre-New Year’s Day bowler Yards Per Game stat winners were: Cincinnati (+184), Bowling Green (+156) and Oregon (+111).

                            Pre-New Year’s Day bowlers that got trounced on the field, or the biggest Yards Per Game stat losers, were: Rutgers (-179), Buffalo (-171) and Ohio U (-166).


                            Pushovers

                            Speaking of stat performance this season, two bowl teams head into the postseason having been pushed all over the field to conclude the 2013 campaign.

                            We’re speaking primarily of teams who have lost the overall yardage stats in at least their last three games.

                            This year’s contingent of pushovers includes Arizona and Texas A&M, both of whom are laying points, making them ‘leaking oil’ favorites. Amazingly enough the Wildcats have been out-yarded in each of their last four contests.

                            Incidentally, last year’s bowl card featured two teams - Duke and Kansas State - that were outgained in each of their final four games of the season. They went 0-2 SUATS, losing by 14 and 18 points, respectively.


                            Are You Kidding Me

                            Notre Dame is 0-10 SU and ATS in bowl games when facing an opponent off a win.
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              NCAAF betting: Five teams poised for letdowns in bowl games

                              Every college bowl season comes with teams who are playing in games they never thought they would be in after heartbreaking losses. Those teams can often bring value as they can go into the game just wanting to get things over with while their opponents are eying up an upset.

                              Here is a look at five teams that will be less than excited with their bowl destinations this holiday season.

                              Northern Illinois (Lost MAC Championship to Bowling Green)

                              The Huskies had dreams of another return to the BCS with Heisman candidate Jordan Lynch registering eye-popping rushing numbers as a quarterback along the way before Bowling Green got their revenge on Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game in convincing fashion. Luckily for NIU, their opponent Utah State is also coming off a disappointing loss in the Mountain West Championship Game to Fresno State at home last weekend and will also be reeling.

                              Northern Illinois is getting -1.5 and Utah State lost to the two top quality programs in the Mountain West in Boise State and Fresno, with Lynch putting up such solid numbers and wanting to end his college career on a high note to attract NFL attention, the Huskies are likely not the team to find value when it comes to a lack of motivation following a letdown.


                              USC (Lost to UCLA to end season)

                              USC has been a mess all season and are going through the emotional roller coaster of their interim coach Ed Orgeron being replaced by Steve Sarkisian for next season as the Trojans opted to bring in an established head coach following USC's loss to their rivals in UCLA to end their Pac 12 season. Going up against Derek Carr and the Fresno State Bulldogs, a team that has top wide receiver talent and a dominant passing game, the Trojans could be looking at an upset going against the nation's best passer in Carr.

                              USC are currently sitting as 6-point favorites over Fresno State.


                              Oregon (Lost to Stanford/Arizona to lose Pac 12 title)

                              The Ducks were pegged as the team that was going to face Alabama in the BCS National Championship Game backed by the early Heisman favorite in redshirt-sophomore Marcus Mariota before an MCL sprain slowed Mariota and Oregon's offense in losses to Stanford and Arizona to dash their Pac 12 title hopes. The Ducks will now have to settle for a game against Texas to end their season, but they might not mind facing the Longhorns who struggled mightily against a similar offensive scheme in Baylor to end their season. They are two touchdown favorites, but Texas showed that they struggled to match the pace of a high speed offense. Oregon could very well run up the score against the Longhorns who have more than their share of distractions with the current Mack Brown/Nick Saban rumors that ended with Saban extending his contract at Alabama.


                              Georgia (Lost Aaron Murray to season ending ACL injury)

                              Georgia hasn't been the same since losing Aaron Murray in what was the final blow of an injury-plagued season for the Bulldogs. They will be playing a Nebraska team that is also missing their starter in Taylor Martinez. But as 9-point favorites without the quarterback who has been the staple of their program for years, Georgia may be in line for an upset against the Cornhuskers.


                              Miami Hurricanes (Missed ACC Championship Game with three-game losing streak)

                              Miami expected to win the ACC Coastal to avenge a loss to Florida State in the ACC Championship Game, but instead were shocked by an upstart Duke in the final loss of a three-game losing streak that dashed any dreams of the Hurricanes returning to a BCS bowl. Losing Duke Johnson at running back, Miami has just not been the same team and will be in tough against the 11-1 Louisville Cardinals and likely first overall draft pick Teddy Bridgewater. The Hurricanes run on swagger, and they haven't had much of it since their losing streak.
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                              • #60
                                NFL

                                Monday, December 16

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                                Monday Night Football betting: Ravens at Lions
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                                Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 50)

                                Two teams clawing to stay in their respective playoff races square off Monday night when the Detroit Lions host the Baltimore Ravens. Both are bordering on must-win situations, as the Lions enter the weekend tied with Chicago atop the NFC North and the Ravens are tied with Miami for the last AFC wild card. "Our playoffs start this week," Detroit running back Reggie Bush told the team's website. "It doesn't start in three weeks. It starts right now."

                                The Lions do have some wiggle room by virtue of two head-to-head wins over the Bears, but their margin for error became slimmer when they lost 34-20 in blizzard-like conditions in Philadelphia last week. Bush sat out that game after aggravating a calf injury during warmups - a huge blow on a day when passing was nearly impossible - but is expected to be back on the field against Baltimore. The Ravens won a wild one a week ago, topping Minnesota 29-26 in a game that saw six lead changes in the fourth quarter.

                                TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

                                LINE: Detroit opened -6 and is now -6.5. The total opened 47.5 and is up to 50.

                                ABOUT THE RAVENS (7-6): Baltimore hasn't been able to do much on offense all year and has been especially ineffective in the running game, long a staple of its success. Receiver Torrey Smith, who needs 37 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the first time in his career, is a legitimate deep threat, though, and the Lions have given up a lot of big plays. The Ravens' defense isn't at the elite level as in years past but is still strong against the run, though the secondary could have trouble with Detroit star Calvin Johnson.

                                ABOUT THE LIONS (7-6): The offense sputtered in the snow in Philadelphia, as two of the Lions' three touchdowns came on special teams and Detroit committed three turnovers, bringing its total to 15 over the past four games. Detroit leans heavily on its passing game, and quarterback Matthew Stafford needs just 27 passing yards for his third consecutive 4,000-yard season. The defense has been solid against the run, last week notwithstanding, but is susceptible to the pass.

                                TRENDS:

                                * Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
                                * Ravens are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in December.
                                * Under is 6-0 in Lions last six Monday games.
                                * Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.

                                EXTRA POINTS:

                                1. Flacco needs 262 passing yards to become the first Ravens quarterback with five consecutive seasons of 3,500 yards.

                                2. Johnson needs seven yards to become the first player in NFL history with 5,000 receiving yards in a three-year span.

                                3. Ravens K Justin Tucker has made 27 consecutive field goals, the longest active streak in the NFL.
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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