The Bum's College Football + Bowl Games POD'S- Trends- Stats !

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NCAAF

Saturday, December 7

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Saturday's NCAAF betting cheat sheet: Afternoon action
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Marshall Thundering Herd at Rice Owls (+6.5, 61)

The Rice Owls are ranked 62nd on offense, averaging 420.5 yards per game. The Owls are averaging 239.5 yards rushing and 181.0 yards passing so far
this season.

The Marshall Thundering Herd are ranked ninth on offense, averaging 513.2 yards per game. The Thundering Herd are averaging 219.9 yards rushing and
293.3 yards passing so far this season.

LINE: Rice opened as 4.5-point home dogs and have move slightly to +6.5. The total is up to 61.
WEATHER: There is a 50 percent chance of rain with a 12 mph wind blowing towards teh South end zone.

TRENDS:
* Marshall is 4-0 ATS in its last four games versus a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-0 in Marshall's last six games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Rice's last six games versus a team with a winning record.


Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-10, 57)

The Sooners defeated the Mountaineers early in the season but went on to lose to Texas and Baylor - two teams that Oklahoma State defeated - by a combined margin of 77-32. This season, Oklahoma sports a resume that includes victories over Notre Dame and and Texas Tech, as well as last week's 41-31 win over Kansas State.

The Cowboys have won seven straight games since their only loss of the season - a 30-21 defeat against a West Virginia team that wound up 4-8. The Cowboys have scored at least 20 points in 50 consecutive contests, but their defense quietly is much improved, holding Kansas, Texas and Baylor to an average of 12 points over the last three games.

LINE: The line opened at -10.5 and has moved to -10. The total opened at 58 and has been bet down to 57.
WEATHER: There is a 14 percent chance of precipitation with temperatures in the high teens.

TRENDS:
* Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings.
* Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.


Central Florida Knights at Southern Methodist Mustangs (OFF)

Blake Bortles' 167.3 passer rating has him in elite company, ranked seventh in the nation and his 276.2 passing yards per game falls behind only Gilbert and Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater in the conference. Central Florida's offense ranks 30th in the nation, averaging 34.6 points.

SMU quarterback Garrett Gilbert, is listed as questionable with a knee sprain. While the Mustangs have proven they can score in bunches with Gilbert under center, last week's goose egg against Houston is a concern, as is SMU's conference-worst 34.8 points per game, especially against the Knights' offense.

LINE: The line is currently off the board.
WEATHER: There is a 40 percent chance of ice pellets with an eight mph cross field wind.

TRENDS:
* Favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Central Florida is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five meetings.


Memphis Tigers at Connecticut Huskies (+1, 43)

Memphis has been ranked in the top 20 in the nation in total defense for most of the season but slipped to 27th after giving up a season highs for total yards (534) and points (41) to Temple.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Casey Cochran took over the starting job three weeks ago and has rejuvenated the offense as the Huskies have put up 21 or more points in three straight games after doing so only twice in their first eight contests.

LINE: UConn opened at +1 dogs. The total is currently at 43.
WEATHER: There is a 12 percent chance of rain with a eight mph wind blowing towards the Southeast end zone.

TRENDS:
* Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.
* Under is 5-0 in Memphis' last five road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Connecticut's last four home games.


Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears (-16.5, 71.5)

The Longhorns have scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight contests, thanks in large part to an improved rushing attack that rolled up 281 yards and three touchdowns against Texas Tech on Thanksgiving night.

The Bears, who are currently averaging 55.4 points and 635.1 yards, have received a stunningly efficient season from Perry, as the junior quarterback has 3,557 passing yards with 28 touchdowns and two interceptions, in addition to 11 rushing scores.

LINE: Baylor opened at -13.5 and have been bet up to -16.5. The total opened at 73.5 and have moved down to 71.5.
WEATHER: There is a 40 percent chance of ice pellets with a 10 mph cross field wind.

TRENDS:
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Texas is 1-5 ATS in its last six meetings.


Missouri Tigers vs Auburn Tigers +1.5, 59)

Game will be played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia

Missouri averages 489.5 total yards and rank 18th in the nation in rushing (236.9) with Henry Josey leading the way (951 yards, 13 TDs). The defense is tied for fourth in the nation with 37 sacks, has forced 27 turnovers and has at least one takeaway in 42 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the FBS.

Tre Mason, the SEC's leading rusher with 1,317 yards and 18 TDs, and dual threat quarterback Nick Marshall (1,627 passing yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs; 922 rushing yards, 10 TDs) lead an offense that ranks fifth in rushing (318.3) and 15th in total yards (491).

LINE: Auburn opened at -1.5 and has moved to +1.5. The total is up to 59.
WEATHER: N/A.

TRENDS:
* Missouri is 6-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record.
* Auburn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in Missouri's last seven games overall.

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NCAAF

Saturday, December 7

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Saturday's NCAAF betting cheat sheet: Evening action
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South Florida Bulls at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-4, 46.5)

South Florida hasn't won at Rutgers since 2005 and will head north without two seniors on defense. Freshman quarterback Mike White (79-of-144 for 942 yards,
three touchdowns, eight interceptions) - the team's fourth starting quarterback of the season - will make his fifth straight start.

The Scarlet Knights will likely be without Leonte Carroo (upper body), who is a touchdown away from tying the school's single-single receiving TD record. The Scarlet Knights are ranked seventh in the country in rushing yards allowed (102.3) but are minus-10 in turnovers.

LINE: Rutgers opened at -7 but have moved down to -4. The total is currently at 46.5.
WEATHER: There is a 12 percent of rain.

TRENDS:
* Underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* South Florida is 0-6 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 9-1 in Rutgers' last 10 games following a SU loss.


Standford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils (-3, 56)

The Cardinal boast an impressive resume that includes victories over Washington, UCLA, Oregon State, Oregon and Notre Dame, in addition to their earlier win against Arizona State.Stanford ranks 13th in the country in points allowed (19 per game) and has yielded no more than 20 points in any of its last six contests.

The Sun Devils improved to 7-0 at home last week with a convincing 58-21 victory over Arizona, as they led 30-7 at the half and cruised despite the absence of leading rusher Marion Grice (leg). D.J. Foster led the way with 124 rushing yards and two touchdowns, helping Arizona State improve its scoring output for the fourth straight game (20, 30, 38 and 58).

LINE: The Sun Devils opened as 3.5-point home faves and have moved slightly to -3. The total opened at 56.
WEATHER: There is a 10 percent chance of rain with a 10 mph wind blowing across the field.

TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Home team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings at Arizona State.


Duke Blue Devils vs Florida State Seminoles (-29.5, 62.5)

The game will be played at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina.

The No. 20 ranked Blue Devils, who have won eight in a row, were picked to finish last in the Coastal Division and are heavy underdogs Saturday, but have come from behind to win their past four contests.

The Seminoles, who ascended to the No. 1 ranking after Alabama lost at Auburn last weekend, average 53.7 points per game. Quarterback Jameis Winston is a frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy, averaging a touchdown pass every 9.1 pass attempts for a Florida State offense that has scored 50 or more points seven times in 12 games.

LINE: The line opened at Florida State -28.5 and moved up to -29.5. The total opened at 61.5 and has jumped up to 62.5.
WEATHER: There is a 76 percent chance of rain with a 9 mph wind blowing across the field.

TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Blue Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.


Louisiana Lafayette at South Alabama (-3, 58.5)

The UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns are ranked 42 on offense, averaging 443.7 yards per game. The Ragin' Cajuns are averaging 220.2 yards rushing and 223.5 yards passing so far this season.

The South Alabama Jaguars are ranked 48 on offense, averaging 431.2 yards per game. The Jaguars are averaging 171.0 yards rushing and 260.2 yards passing so far this season.

LINE: The line has held steady at South Alabama -3. The total has moved up from 58 to 58.5.
WEATHER: There is a 39 percent chance of rain.

TRENDS:
* UL Lafayette is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.
* South Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.
* Over is 8-0-1 in UL Lafayette's last nine games following a SU loss.


Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans (+5, 51.5)

Game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

Ohio State has won a school-record 24 straight games but needed a failed two-point try in the final seconds last week to escape Michigan with a one-point victory. Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde have combined to rush for 1,070 yards and 13 touchdowns over the past three games against Illinois, Indiana and Michigan.

The Spartans boast the nation’s top rushing, total and pass efficiency defense and complement it with the fifth-best turnover margin (plus-15) in FBS. They are also second nationally in third-down defense (28.7 percent) and fourth in scoring defense (11.8 points per game).

LINE: The line opened +5.5 and is now +5. The total hasn't moved from 51.5.
WEATHER: N/A.

TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings
* Ohio State is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.


Utah State Aggies at Fresno State Bulldogs (-2.5, 60.5)

The Aggies were expected to struggle after losing starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton to a season-ending knee injury, but they rallied behind freshman backup Darell Garretson, senior running back Joey DeMartino (12 touchdowns) and a stellar defense.

Fresno State's offense ranks fourth nationally in scoring at 47.3 points per game, and senior quarterback Derek Carr has thrown 45 touchdowns with only five interceptions.

LINE: The Bulldogs opened as 3-point home faves and are now -2.5. The total is currently 60.5.
WEATHER: There is a 10 percent chance of rain.

TRENDS:
* Utah State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Fresno State is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.

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NCAAF

Saturday, December 7

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SEC Championship: What bettors need to know
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Missouri Tigers vs Auburn Tigers (+1.5, 59)

Game will be played at the Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia.

The two most surprising teams in the Southeastern Conference all season, No. 5 Missouri and No. 3 Auburn square off for the league title Saturday at the Georgia Dome. The teams combined for just two conference victories a year ago but now find themselves a win away from playing in a BCS bowl - and potentially the national championship game. The winner will find itself paying close attention to the ACC and Big Ten title games Saturday night in hopes Florida State or Ohio State will lose and clear the path for the SEC champion to leap into the top two in the BCS standings.

Auburn's unlikely path to the championship game has included eight consecutive victories, culminating with last week's 34-28 win over bitter rival Alabama in which Chris Davis caught a missed field goal in the back of the end zone and returned it for the winning touchdown on the final play of the game. "That is our biggest challenge as a team," first-year Auburn coach Gus Malzahn told reporters of his team's task of shifting its focus after such a dramatic win. "It was a very emotional win. It was a physical game, but we have to put it behind us and we have to put all of our attention on Missouri." Missouri also had to finish on a high note to play its way to Atlanta, beating Texas A&M 28-21 at home a week after a 24-10 victory at Mississippi to earn a spot in the title game in just its second year in the league.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Auburn opened as a 1.5-point fave but has been bet to +1.5. The total is up one point to 59.

WEATHER: N/A.

ABOUT MISSOURI (11-1, 10-1-1 ATS): The Tigers surged to the top of the SEC East on the strength of a balanced offense led by senior quarterback James Franklin, who has passed for 1,952 yards with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions and rushed for 412 yards and 3 TDs, and an opportunistic defense. They average 489.5 total yards and rank 18th in the nation in rushing (236.9) with Henry Josey leading the way (951 yards, 13 TDs). The defense is tied for fourth in the nation with 37 sacks, has forced 27 turnovers and has at least one takeaway in 42 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the FBS.

ABOUT AUBURN (11-1, 10-2 ATS): Malzahn has overseen the biggest turnaround in the nation after the Tigers went 3-9 a year ago but have returned to the national prominence they enjoyed when he was the offensive coordinator. Tre Mason, the SEC's leading rusher with 1,317 yards and 18 TDs, and dual threat quarterback Nick Marshall (1,627 passing yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs; 922 rushing yards, 10 TDs) lead an offense that ranks fifth in rushing (318.3) and 15th in total yards (491). The Tigers have been less impressive defensively, but they held Alabama to seven points in the second half.

TRENDS:
* Missouri is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games overall.
* Auburn is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a SU win.
* Under is 4-1 in Missouri's last five games overall.
* Over is 7-1 in Auburn's last eight games following a SU win.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Malzahn and Missouri's Gary Pinkel are among the three finalists for the Maxwell Coach of the Year Award, along with Duke's David Cutcliffe.

2. With a win, Pinkel (101-62) would pass Don Faurot as Missouri's all-time winningest coach.

3. Auburn has scored 30 points or more in eight straight contests and has won 87 consecutive games when hitting the 30-point plateau, while Missouri is one of three teams in the nation to hold all of its opponents to 28 points or fewer.

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Where the action is: Saturday's NCAAF line moves

Championship Saturday is one of the biggest days for college football betting, despite having limited action on the board. We talk to Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag about the betting patterns and line adjustments for some of Saturday’s massive matchups:

Missouri Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers – Open: -2.5 Move: +1.5

This line has moved as many four points at some books, with sharp money hitting Missouri hard in the SEC Championship Game.

Auburn, coming off an unbelievable win over Alabama in the Iron Bowl, is primed for a letdown but this massive move may have money coming back on War Eagle before kickoff. According to Perry, Auburn has drawn most of the public money for this game.

“Fifty-seven percent of money on spread is backing Auburn and 60 percent of moneyline cash is on Auburn,” says Perry. “Ninety-five percent of the action on the total is backing the Over.”


Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles – Open: -30, Move: -28.5, Move: -29.5

With some uncertainty around FSU QB Jameis Winston status, early money took this spread down as low as Duke +28.5. But since Winston was cleared of assault charges Thursday, money has shown up on the Seminoles and has brought the line back up to FSU -29.5.

“After just a few hours, we got a small sharp play on Duke, so moved to +29.5. Early Thursday, we moved line in Blue Devils favor to -28.5, bracing for a possible suspension to Jameis Winston,” Perry says. “However, when it was announced that he will not be charged with any crime, the line went back up to -29.5. Sixty-eight percent of the money on the spread is on Duke.”


Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans – Open: +6, Move: +5

Early action wasn’t convinced by Ohio State’s undefeated record and trimmed this spread as much as a point at some markets. The Buckeyes have dominated the Spartans at the window in recent games, going 6-2-1 ATS in their last three meetings.

“Sixty percent of the money on spread is backing MSU and 73 percent of the moneyline cash is on the Spartans,” says Perry.


Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils – Open: -4, Move: +3

Action on the underdog has slid this spread to the key number of a field goal. Stanford defeated the Sun Devils, 42-28, at home in Week 4, covering as a 6.5-point home favorite. However, ASU has won seven in a row, posting a 5-2 ATS mark in the stretch.

“Yet another game that has shifted in favor of the underdog,” says Perry. The Sun Devils opened -4 and on Monday morning we got a wiseguy play on the Cardinal for a rather large amount, so moved right to -3. Seventy percent of the money on the spread is on Stanford and 80 percent of moneyline cash is also on Stanford."

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NCAAF

Saturday, December 7

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Big Ten Championship: What bettors need to know
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Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan State Spartans (+5, 51.5)

Game will be payed at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana.

Ohio State had one major obstacle toward its quest for a national title removed last week when Alabama lost to Auburn. The second-ranked Buckeyes can increase their odds of a berth in the BCS Championship Game dramatically Saturday when they meet No. 9 Michigan State in the Big Ten title game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Ohio State has won a school-record 24 straight games but needed a failed two-point try in the final seconds last week to escape Michigan with a one-point victory.

Despite the Buckeyes’ long winning streak, perhaps no team in the conference is playing as well as the Spartans, who have won eight in a row. Michigan State became the first Big Ten team to win all of its league games by at least 10 points since the conference went to an eight-game schedule in 1971. Although the Spartans could end up in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1988 regardless of Saturday’s outcome, they could assure themselves a school-record 12th win with a victory.

TV: 8:17 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: The line opened with the Buckeyes as 5.5-point faves and have been bet down to -5. The total hasn't moved fro 51.5.

WEATHER: N/A.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (12-0, 6-5-1 ATS): Carlos Hyde is the first running back under coach Urban Meyer to rush for more than 1,000 yards in a season and needs 33 more to become the seventh player in school history to run for 3,000 in a career. Quarterback Braxton Miller trails Hyde by 90 rushing yards and is also 166 total yards shy of joining Art Schlichter as the only Buckeyes to reach 8,000 in their career. Miller and Hyde have combined to rush for 1,070 yards and 13 touchdowns over the past three games against Illinois, Indiana and Michigan.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (11-1, 7-4-1 ATS): The Spartans boast the nation’s top rushing, total and pass efficiency defense and complement it with the fifth-best turnover margin (plus-15) in FBS. They are also second nationally in third-down defense (28.7 percent) and fourth in scoring defense (11.8 points per game)."It's by far the best defense I've ever been a part of. It's got to rival the best defenses ever at Michigan State – forget the last seven years," defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi said.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Ohio State is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Both teams went 8-0 in conference play, marking just the second time since 1943 that two Big Ten teams finished with perfect league marks.

2. Michigan State has kept five out of last six opponents out of the end zone.

3. Meyer notched his first conference win as Ohio State coach when these teams last met in September 2012.

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Saturday, December 7

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oklahoma - 12:00 PM ET Oklahoma State -10 500 DOUBLE POD
Oklahoma State - Over 57 500

Central Florida - 12:00 PM ET Central Florida -13.5 500
Southern Methodist - Under 57.5 500

Marshall - 12:00 PM ET Rice +6.5 500
Rice - Over 61.5 500

Memphis - 1:00 PM ET Connecticut +1.5 500
Connecticut - Under 42 500

Texas - 3:30 PM ET Texas +16.5 500 *****
Baylor - Over 73 500

Missouri - 4:00 PM ET Auburn +1 500 DOUBLE POD
Auburn - Under 59 500

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EVENING POD'S:



South Florida - 7:30 PM ET South Florida +4 500

Rutgers - Under 44 500

Stanford - 7:45 PM ET Stanford +3.5 500 *****

Arizona State - Over 52.5 500 *****

UL Lafayette - 8:00 PM ET UL Lafayette +3 500 *****

South Alabama - Over 59.5 500

Duke - 8:00 PM ET Florida State -29.5 500 *****

Florida State - Under 66 500

Ohio State - 8:17 PM ET Michigan State +5.5 500 DOUBLE POD

Michigan State - Over 53 500

Utah State - 10:00 PM ET Utah State +2.5 500 DOUBLE POD

Fresno State - Under 61.5 500

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College football odds: BCS Bowl game opening lines

The regular season has wrapped up. The conference championship games are complete. And if the BCS bowl games are anything like the insanity of the past two weekends, it’s going to be a crazy postseason, too.

Florida State (13-0, 11-2 ATS) reaching the BCS Championship Game wasn’t really a surprise, after the Seminoles drubbed upstart Duke in the ACC championship game 45-7 to cash as a 30-favorite Saturday. Auburn, on the other hand, went on a midnight run that would have made Cinderella blush. The Tigers (12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS) stunned Georgia on a last-minute deflected pass that turned into a winning touchdown reception, then shocked Alabama with a field-goal return TD to beat the No. 1 Crimson Tide 34-28 as a 10-point underdog.

Auburn’s offense then went haywire against Missouri in a 59-42 victory Saturday in the SEC title game, with Auburn a 2-point pup. Coupled with Ohio State’s loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten title game, Auburn now finds itself playing Florida State on Jan. 6 in Pasadena, Calif.

And it’s not only a battle between the two best teams on the field, but the two best teams at the betting window. The Seminoles and Tigers are tied for the best ATS record in the nation, and Jay Kornegay, sports book director at the LVH in Las Vegas, installed Florida State as a 7.5-point favorite.

“A lot of people have fallen in love with the Tigers over the last couple of weeks, but the Seminoles are at a different level,” Kornegay said. “Their defense is stout and will be able to slow down that Auburn offense. The Tigers’ defense is very questionable and will have a high degree of difficulty stopping Florida State.”


Rose Bowl
Jan. 1, Pasadena, Calif.

Stanford Cardinal vs. Michigan State Spartans (+6)

The Spartans (12-1 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) capped a strong season with a 34-24 victory over Ohio State as 5.5-point ‘dogs on Saturday in the Big Ten title game, their ninth consecutive victory. Michigan State went 7-2 ATS in that stretch and won all nine games by double digits, leaning on a defense that ranks No. 1 in rushing yards and total yards, and No. 4 in points allowed (12.7 ppg.).

Stanford (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) walloped host Arizona State 38-14 in Saturday’s Pac-12 title tilt, rolling as a 3-point underdog to cap a late-season run of 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS), with the only loss coming on a last-second field goal at Southern Cal.

“Stanford and Michigan State mirror each other, but the Cardinal is better at almost everything,” Kornegay said. “This will be a 1980s-like game, which is becoming extinct. Huddles, talk and using the entire play clock will be aplenty."


Fiesta Bowl
Jan. 1, Glendale, Ariz.

Baylor Bears vs. Central Florida Knights (+16.5)

On a wild final Saturday in the Big 12, Baylor (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) thumped visiting Texas 30-10 as a 17.5-point chalk, and with Oklahoma State falling to Oklahoma, that gave the Bears the conference title and the Fiesta Bowl bid.

Central Florida, meanwhile, held off host Southern Methodist 17-13 laying 13.5 points Saturday. The Knights (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) won the automatic bid from the American Athletic Conference, but they are big ‘dogs against the Bears’ high-flying offense.

“Central Florida faced Penn State and Louisville, but those two are nothing like Baylor,” Kornegay said. “Baylor’s no-huddle offense is probably the best in college football. Central Florida can practice all it wants over the next month, but it will be a huge challenge for the Knights to stop the Bears.”


Orange Bowl
Jan. 3, Miami

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Clemson Tigers (-2.5)

The Buckeyes (12-1 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) were 5.5-point favorites against Michigan State in the Big Ten finale, and they led 24-20 entering the fourth quarter Saturday at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis, poised to win a berth in the BCS Championship Game.

Then they got outscored 14-0 in the final frame, losing 34-24. That knocked Ohio State to the Orange Bowl instead, where it will face Clemson (10-2, 6-6 ATS) out of the ACC. The Tigers also come in on a losing note, falling on the road to archrival South Carolina 31-17 as a 2.5-point pup on Nov. 30.

“This will be a tough matchup for the Buckeyes,” Kornegay said. “Ohio State thinks it had its hands full with Michigan State. Well, the Tigers’ offense is no comparison. Clemson’s no-huddle is also one of the best, and the Buckeyes will have to get their offense going to keep up.”


Sugar Bowl
Jan. 2, New Orleans

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners (+11.5)

Alabama (11-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) blew its shot at a third straight national title with its stunning 34-28 loss to Auburn on Nov. 30. Even though the Crimson Tide were on the road in that game, they were 10-point favorites.

Oklahoma, on the other hand, played its way to a BCS bowl berth with a 33-24 road upset of rival Oklahoma State in a downright freezing Bedlam game on Saturday. The Sooners (10-2, 7-5 ATS) won and covered their last three games.

“This will be all about motivation,” Kornegay said. ”Will Alabama be motivated? I’m sure the Crimson Tide are going to hear a lot about the last time they were in the Sugar Bowl, against Utah. The Utes had a very good team and took the Crimson Tide behind the woodshed.

“Most likely, this game will motivate Alabama. The inconsistent quarterback play that we have seen at Oklahoma will make it a huge challenge for the Sooners.”

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Odds for all 35 college football bowl games

The bowl matchups are set and oddsmakers have been feverishly working to set the spreads for those NCAAF postseason games. Here's a look at the bowl games and the available odds for those contests:

Gildan New Mexico
Washington State vs. Colorado State (+13) - Albuquerque, N.M.

Royal Purple Las Vegas
Fresno State vs. USC (-8) - Las Vegas

Famous Idaho Potato
Buffalo vs. San Diego State (+4.5) - Boise, Idaho

R+L Carriers New Orleans
Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (+3) - New Orleans

Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg
East Carolina vs. Ohio (+13.5) - St. Petersburg, Fla.

Sheraton Hawaii
Boise State vs. Oregon State (-4) - Honolulu

Little Caesars Pizza
Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green (-5) - Detroit

S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia
Utah State vs. Northern Illinois (-1) - San Diego

Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman
Marshall vs. Maryland (Pick) - Annapolis, Md.

Texas
Syracuse vs. Minnesota (-3.5) - Houston

Fight Hunger
BYU vs. Washington (-6.5) - San Francisco

New Era Pinstripe
Rutgers vs. Notre Dame (-18.5) - Bronx, N.Y.

Belk
Cincinnati vs. North Carolina (-3) - Charlotte, N.C.

Russell Athletic
Miami vs. Louisville (-3) - Orlando, Fla.

Buffalo Wild Wings
Michigan vs. Kansas State (+2.5) - Tempe, Ariz.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
Middle Tennessee vs. Navy (N/A) - Fort Worth, Texas

Franklin American Mortgage Music City
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Tech (+3.5) - Nashville, Tenn.

Valero Alamo
Oregon vs. Texas (+12.5) - San Antonio

National University Holiday
Arizona State vs. Texas Tech (+15.5) - San Diego

AdvoCare V100
Arizona vs. Boston College (+8) - Shreveport, La.

Hyundai Sun
Virginia Tech vs. UCLA (-10.5) - El Paso, Texas

AutoZone Liberty
Rice vs. Mississippi State (-9.5) - Memphis, Tenn.

Chick-fil-A
Duke vs. Texas A&M (-12.5) - Atlanta

TaxSlayer.com Gator
Nebraska vs. Georgia (-7) - Jacksonville, Fla.

Heart of Dallas
UNLV vs. North Texas (N/A) - Dallas

Capital One
Wisconsin vs. South Carolina (+2) - Orlando, Fla.

Outback
Iowa vs. LSU (-8) - Tampa, Fla.

Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO
Stanford vs. Michigan State (+3.5) - Pasadena, Calif.

Tostitos Fiesta
UCF vs. Baylor (-17) - Glendale, Ariz.

Allstate Sugar
Oklahoma vs. Alabama (-17) - New Orleans

Discover Orange
Clemson vs. Ohio State (-4) - Miami

AT&T Cotton
Oklahoma State vs. Missouri (-3.5) - Arlington, Texas

BBVA Compass
Vanderbilt vs. Houston (N/A) - Birmingham, Ala.

GoDaddy
Arkansas State vs. Ball State (N/A) - Mobile, Ala.

VIZIO BCS National Championship
No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 2 Auburn (+7.5) - Pasadena, Calif.

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NCAAF line watch: Wait to fade Manziel and Texas A&M

Spread to bet now

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+15.5) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The spread sits on a dead number, but we’d expect this line to go down closer to the key number of 14 before it would go up to the key number of 17.

Notre Dame is going from playing in the National Championship game against Alabama last season to playing a 6-6 SU Rutgers team in the Pinstripe Bowl on December 28th.

Not only that, but this game will also be played in the Bronx giving Rutgers the proximity edge as well.

This game will be the proverbial “square vs. sharp” play where the public bettors will lay the points while the professional bettors will take the points. Take the big points now before big money knocks this line down.


Spread to wait on

Duke Blue Devils (+12) vs Texas A&M Aggies

The Aggies beat Oklahoma 41-13 in the Cotton Bowl last season.

“Johnny Football” was the talk of college football and big things were expected this season. But after a mediocre 8-4 season, Texas A&M finds themselves in the Chick-fil-A Bowl on New Year’s Eve night against a Duke team that just lost 45-7 in the ACC Championship game.

Everybody saw Duke play a non-competitive game, and with Texas A&M a known commodity with a high-scoring offense, bettors will lay the points in this game.

The Aggies’ defense has been atrocious all season. They give up 31.2 points and 466.7 yards of offense per game. They allow 6.0 yards per play, 5.3 yards per rush, and 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Those are some terrible defensive numbers for a double digit favorite.

Early money has already come in on Texas A&M as this game opened at 11.5 with sportsbooks now dealing 12 and even 12.5 at some shops. Duke will be super motivated for this game - their second consecutive bowl appearance after an 18-year drought. The public will back Texas A&M in this game, so if you like Duke it’s probably best to wait for a better number closer to kickoff.


Total to watch

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona State Sun Devils

The Holiday Bowl has a history of high-scoring games with down to the wire finishes.

These two teams have potent passing offenses and defenses that leave a lot to be desired. Texas Tech averages 56.9 pass attempts per game (No. 2 in the country) while Arizona State throws the ball 35.8 times per game, good for No.30 in the country.

Neither team is good at defending the pass. Texas Tech’s defensive numbers are skewed by early season results against very bad teams. The Red Raiders have given up 48.6 points per game over their last five games. The Sun Devils allow 7.3 yards per pass attempt, a major reason they’ve allowed 92 total points in their last three games.

The first posted total for this game by an offshore sportsbook was 72 total points and it appeared on Monday night. I expect this line to rise higher once more sportsbooks begin releasing an Over/Under line on what should be a high-scoring game.

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Football lines that make you go hmmm...

Albert Einstein was no big NFL bettor, but his definition of insanity was doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. By that logic, Einstein is getting down on the Indianapolis Colts -6 against the Houston Texans while the gettin’ is good in Week 15.

Sportsbooks continue to give credit to the Texans week after week, despite not wining since Week 2 of the schedule and losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars last Thursday. That primetime spanking cost Houston head coach Gary Kubiak his job, leaving defensive coordinator Wade Phillips at the wheel in the final week of the season.

Houston was a 3-point road favorite in Jacksonville last week, and outside of a valiant effort against the Patriots in Week 13, hasn’t done anything to warrant the respect books continue to give the Texans. They are just 3-10 ATS and are likely looking ahead to the NFL Draft, where a No. 1 overall pick would hand them the QB of their choice.

But for now, Houston rides out the final games of 2013 with Case Keenum as the team’s elected starter and Matt Schaub backing him up. The biggest issue is that Keenum was Kubiak’s guy. The two worked very closely when Schaub went down with a leg injury and the young QB could be rattled without his corner man.

The Colts clinched the AFC South despite losing to Cincinnati Sunday but head coach Chuck Pagano says he won’t rest his players. He’s not happy with their current form – splitting wins and losses in their last six – and told reporters they have plenty to work on before the postseason begins.

NFL

New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams (+5.5, 46.5)

The difference in the Saints’ play at home and away is about as glaring as the difference between Tara Reid circa 1999 American Pie and Tara Reid circa 2013 Sharknado: Smoky-voiced blonde bombshell vs. Dog-chewed leather slipper.

However, books have taken this home/away split a little too far in Week 15, setting New Orleans as a 5.5-point favorite in St. Louis.

Football bettors have watched Drew Brees and New Orleans stall on the road in outdoor venues like Seattle, New York, Chicago and Tampa Bay but won’t be battling the elements inside the Edward Jones Dome Sunday.

The Rams defense was keeping the team competitive but has cracked the last two games, allowing 53 points in losses to San Francisco and Arizona. St. Louis’ dreaded pass rush had just one sack on slow-motion QB Carson Palmer this weekend. Brees has been sacked just 26 times all season.


NCAAF

Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen (-13, 54)

Ah, Army-Navy week. Or as many college football bettors know, that Saturday you put up the Christmas decorations.

The annual armed forces feature is the calm before the bowl season storm, and the bettors that actually give a crap seem to be siding with the Under this Saturday. The total opened as high as 55.5 points and has come down as low as 54, with the last seven Army-Navy games finishing below the number.

While the weather for Philadelphia is calling for cold and rain, that shouldn’t impact these two run-heavy offenses much. In fact, if that rain turns to snow, Army and Navy could repeat Eagles RB LeSean McCoy’s big day in the snow, keeping would-be tacklers slipping and sliding.

Both the Black Knights and Midshipmen have leaned toward the Over in recent contests as well, with Army going 6-2 O/U in its last eight and Navy going 4-2 O/U in its final six games.

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Beyond the BCS: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences

Team to watch: Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Poinsettia Bowl: -1 vs. Utah State

The Poinsettia Bowl may not be what Northern Illinois had in mind after playing in the Orange Bowl last season, especially not when it was undefeated going into last Friday’s MAC Championship against Bowling Green. Still, this is the final game for senior QB Jordan Lynch. He will want to impress NFL scouts while also proving his worth for the Heisman Trophy ceremony invitation he received. The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.

Up next for NIU is Utah State on Dec. 26. The Aggies will still be without Chuckie Keeton, who threw 18 touchdowns compared to only two picks before tearing an ACL and MCL on Oct. 4. Freshman backup Darell Garretson has been mediocre by comparison, with nine TDs and five INTs in seven games.

Garretson is questionable due to a severe concussion in last week’s MWC Championship loss to Fresno State. Utah State is also expected to miss Travis Reynolds (51 catches, 832 yards, four TDs), who suffered a knee injury on Nov. 23.


Team to beware: Boise State Broncos (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Hawaii Bowl: +4 vs. Oregon State

The domino effect of Steve Sarkisian’s move to USC is underway, and the second one to fall came in the form of Boise State head coach Chris Petersen bolting for Washington. Now the Broncos will contest the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl on Dec. 24 against Oregon State with interim Bob Gregory at the helm.

Petersen’s long-awaited departure for a BCS program came near the end of a rebuilding year for the Broncos, who have losses to Washington (by 32 points), Fresno State, BYU, and San Diego State. They also have a QB controversy on their hands, as Joe Southwick missed four games with an ankle injury but returned in a Nov. 30 rout of New Mexico to attempt two passes in relief of Grant Hedrick.

Either Southwick or Hedrick may be without receivers Kirby Moore and Shane Williams-Rhodes. Leading tackler Ben Weaver is also questionable due to injury.


Total team: Ball State Cardinals (10-2 SU, 8-4 O/U)

GoDaddy Bowl: (48.5) vs. Arkansas State

Head coach Pete Lembo, thought of as a great offensive mind, has already interviewed with Wake Forest and UConn this month. Andy why not? Lembo’s offense is averaging 40.1 points per game this season, 14th most in the FBS.

How are the Cardinals scoring so much? They are ninth in the FBS in turnover margin (+1.0 per game) and seventh in fewest penalty yards per contest (31.58). On the defensive side of the ball, cornerback Quintin Cooper will likely remain out with the broken leg he sustained on No. 15.

The over is 4-0 in Ball State’s last four overall. Arkansas State, the Jan. 5 GoDaddy Bowl opponent, has scored at least 31 points in four straight games and the over is also 4-0 in its last four overall.

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Bowl season's best/worst ATS and Over/Under teams

Best ATS

Auburn Tigers (11-2-0 ATS)

Auburn has been fantastic this year rushing the ball, ranked first overall with 335.7 yards. They are also 11th overall in total yards with 505.3. Auburn covered its first 10 games by a comfortable margin and is an 8.5-point underdog versus Florida State – the other top ATS team in college football - in the BCS title game.

Florida State Seminoles (11-2-0 ATS)

Florida State’s margin of victory is 42.3 points per game - a record in the BCS era. Florida State is ranked second overall in points scored (53) and sixth in total yards with 529.4. Defensively, the Seminoles are first overall in passing yards allowed (152) and points allowed with a measly 10.7.


Worst ATS

Georgia Bulldogs (3-8-1 ATS)

The Bulldogs have gone 2-3-1 ATS at home and 1-5 ATS away. Georgia’s fall from fifth in preseason rankings to out of the polls is in large part to key injuries. Georgia lost QB Aaron Murray to a season-ending knee injury in November. After winning and covering in their first two games, the Bulldogs went 1-1-8 ATS in their final 10 games. Georgia is a 9-point favorite versus Nebraska in the Gator Bowl on New Year’s Day.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-8 ATS)

The Scarlet Knights have gone 0-2-0 ATS in games played on grass (UCF and Connecticut) and have failed to cover both 20-plus point spreads with their offense struggling to run the ball. Defensively, the Knights are ranked fourth in rushing yards allowed (94.6) but struggle against the pass, sitting 122nd and allowing 311.4 yards per game. Rutgers is a 15.5-point underdog taking on Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium in the Pinstripe Bowl on December 28.


Best Over

Florida State Seminoles (10-3 O/U)

The Seminoles have the most points for and the second-lowest points against in the country. Quarterback Jameis Winston ranks second with the most touchdown passes (38) and has the league’s highest yards per pass attempt at 10.9. Florida State is on pace to score more points than any team in the history of college football needing only 28 more to snap the 2008 Oklahoma State Cowboys’ record of 716 points. The total for the BCS Championship is at 66 points.

Georgia Bulldogs (9-3 O/U)

Georgia has an offense scoring points (458) and a defense giving them up (353). Offensively, the Bulldogs are ranked 17th in total yards (489.8) and 16th in total passing yards with 313.8. Their defense is allowing 29.4 points good for 82nd and 232.8 passing yards. Georgia has faced nine totals of 60 or more points and has topped the number in seven of those games.


Best Under

Louisville Cardinals (3-9 O/U)

The Cardinals defense has been fantastic in preventing opponents from scoring. They’re ranked second overall in total yards allowed with 258.2. They are eighth in passing yards allowed (171.7), second in rushing yards allowed (86.5) and third in total points allowed with 12.4 a game. Louisville takes on Miami in the Russell Athletic Bowl on December 28.

Bowling Green Falcons (4-9 O/U)

The Falcons are ranked in the Top 10 defensively in three categories: eighth in total yards allowed (308.7), fourth in passing yards allowed with 166.2, and fifth in points allowed (14.8). The Falcons are also in the Top 25 in holding their opponents to a 34.4 percent completion rate on third downs. Bowling Green meets Pittsburgh in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl on December 26.

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How to handicap college football bowl season like a pro

Handicapping a bowl game is, in many ways, the same as any other college football game. The team that scores the most points still wins, coaching and matchups matter, controlling the tempo can lead to wins, and so on.

In a few key ways, though, betting bowl games is a whole different animal. Here are three big ways the postseason games present unique challenges bettors have to compensate for:

Coaching changes

In a perfect world, no coaching changes would be made until the end of bowl season. That’s obviously not the case, though.

Handicappers need to be particularly aware of teams that have lost their head coaches. Few teams will fire their coach before a bowl game, but strong coaches frequently move on to their next job before their current team plays in a bowl.

Most often those coaches don’t coach their old team in the bowl because they need to get started on recruiting for their new team. You need to be aware of who the interim coach is, whether a permanent replacement has been named yet, and what impact that is has on the players and their preparation.

It’s not just head coaches that are a factor, either. Rutgers, for example, doesn’t play in the Pinstripe Bowl against Notre Dame until December 28, but the dust had barely settled on the regular season before they fired three assistants. That will have a clear impact on their bowl preparation.

A hot assistant, that is sure to be in demand at other programs, will face all sorts of distractions heading into his bowl game. Michigan State defensive coordinator is charged with getting his nation-leading unit ready for Stanford and the Rose Bowl, but he’s also heavily in demand as a head coach. Will he be at his best, or will he be focusing at least somewhat on what comes next?


Players coming and going

In the month between the regular season and a bowl game, a whole lot can happen to players. Grades come out at most schools, so the prospect of academic-related suspensions is high and can have a big impact on bowl games. It’s crucial to understand who is available and which players may miss a quarter or the whole game.

The extra month to heal can make missing players available again. Nebraska, for example, could go into their Gator Bowl date with Georgia with senior QB Taylor Martinez back at the helm after his long injury absence. The roster that appeared in the final regular season game isn’t necessarily the one we will see here.

Even if players are at the game, their heads may not be. If it has become very likely that a player will leave school early after the bowl to go pro, then they quite possibly can be distracted by what comes next and won’t perform at their best in the bowl.


Location, location, location

While every game is theoretically on a neutral field, bettors need to consider which locations give one team a clear edge.

Maryland will have an edge at the Military Bowl in Annapolis, Maryland. Cincinnati fans will be outnumbered by Tar Heels at the Belk Bowl in Charlotte. Longhorns fans have far fewer travel headaches to get to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl than Oregon fans do. North Texas, which plays in a suburb of Dallas, will have much more fan support in the Heart of Dallas Bowl than UNLV will.

That doesn’t mean, of course, that the virtual home team will win. Handicapping is never that easy. In a tight call, though, location coul

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Inside the Stats

December 11, 2013


Editor's Note: Don't miss out on Marc Lawrence's pro football and college football selections on VegasInisder.com this season!

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Coaching Down the Stretch

The final four weeks of the NFL season are tantamount to the stretch run of a Graded Stakes horse race. It’s where all big races are won and lost.

It’s been said that if you don’t have the horse, you won’t win the race. For the most part this adage is right on the money. More time often than not, though, the ride the horse gets by his jockey is what puts the team in the winner’s circle. It’s why good jockeys are almost always atop quality horses in big races.

The same holds true for head coaches in the NFL. They too are the pilots, guiding their team to the wire, with game plans designed for success or failure… whichever the case may be.

From a profit and loss standpoint, listed below are the BEST and WORST current head coaches and their NFL career ATS records during Games 13-16 – minimum four occurrences (current team in parenthesis) heading into the 2013 season.

All results are ATS (Against The Spread)

BEST

Home: Ron Rivera (Carolina) 4-1

Away: Leslie Frazier (Minnesota) 5-1

Favorite: John Fox (Denver) 16-9-1

Underdog: Mike McCarthy (Green Bay) 7-0

WORST

Home: Jason Garrett (Dallas) 2-4

Away: Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco) 1-4

Favorite: Jason Garrett (Dallas) 1-5

Underdog: Andy Reid (Kansas City) 2-4

Pennzoil Play

Football teams who have been out gained in each of their last three games are considered to be ‘leaking oil’ when installed as favorites.

These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 29-33 ATS overall this season, including 21-23 in CFB and 8-10 in the NFL.

This week’s only play would be against the Indianapolis Colts in the NFL.

Passing Fancy

Here is a list of the league’s Top 10 best passing offenses and worst passing defenses. Play accordingly.

Best Pass Offenses
Denver 341.2 yards per game
New Orleans 302.8
Detroit 296.5
San Diego 288.7
Chicago 276.8
Atlanta 267.8
Pittsburgh 266.8
New England 265.9
Green Bay 265.5
Cleveland (surprise) 260.4

Worst Pass Defenses
Philadelphia 285.3
Minnesota 281.9
Denver 274.3
Washington 256.7
Jacksonville 256.5
Detroit 255.8
NY Jets 254.9
Oakland 250.2
St. Louis 248.9
Green Bay 246.8

Red Rover, Red Rover

Despite the Sunday snowstorm in the NFL last week, they did it again.

We’re talking about the wildly successful ‘OVER’ plays on the pro football card with 11 of the 16 games going 'over' the number.

The average games went ‘OVER’ by +8.9 points. It was easily the highest scoring week of the season as there were 85 touchdowns on Sunday (an average 6.1 TD’s per games).

Last week’s four non-conference game produced a 3-1 winning tally for ‘OVER’ players, moving the season-to-date record to a mind-blowing 44-14 ‘OVER’ in these games, including 23-4 ‘OVER’ the last seven weeks.

This week’s non-conference situations are:
Arizona at Tennessee
Chicago at Cleveland
New York Jets at Carolina
Baltimore at Detroit

College Football Bowl Stat of The Week

Texas Tech was 0-5 both SU and ATS against fellow bowl teams this season.