The Bum's October NFL POD'S + Trends + Stats & News !

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Giants look for 1st victory

October 21, 2013


MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-4) at NEW YORK GIANTS (0-6)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Giants -3.5 (-115) & 48
Opening Line & Total: Giants -3.5 & 47

The Josh Freeman era begins on Monday night when his Vikings visit struggling Eli Manning and the Giants.

New York has yet to win a game this season, but finally covered a spread in a 27-21 Thursday night road loss to the Bears. The Vikings started Matt Cassel at quarterback versus the Panthers last week and were blown out 35-10, prompting the move for Buccaneers cast-off Josh Freeman to take the reigns of the Vikings offense. In the past five meetings between the Vikings and Giants, Minnesota is 3-2 ATS and 4-1 SU with the most recent game being a 21-3 Giants victory in Minnesota in 2010.

To start the season, Minnesota is 2-3 ATS while New York is just 1-5 ATS. Since becoming the coach of New York, Tom Coughlin is 25-11 ATS (69%) in October games. Over the last three seasons, however, Minnesota is 5-1 ATS (83%) coming off an upset loss as a favorite. The Giants will again be without top RB David Wilson (neck) in this game and starting CB Corey Webster (groin) is listed as questionable as well. CB Xavier Rhodes (ankle) is listed as questionable for the Vikings, while S Harrison Smith (toe) is out and LB Desmond Bishop (knee) is on IR.

The Vikings appear to be moving on from Christian Ponder as they are starting Josh Freeman, fresh after signing him two weeks ago. Before being released by Tampa Bay, Freeman threw for 571 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. His completion percentage was a miserable 45.7%. After playing through the tragedy of his 2-year-old son being killed, RB Adrian Peterson rushed for 62 yards on 10 carries against the Panthers while also catching three passes for 21 yards. With 483 yards (4.7 YPC) and 6 TD this season, Peterson will be relied on heavily, but more so this week, as the team tries to ease Freeman into their offensive system. TE Kyle Rudolph led the way for the Vikings in receptions with nine catches for 97 yards and a touchdown. Rudolph should benefit from Freeman in the lineup as he is capable of making plays and Freeman has a big arm, something both Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel do not have. When Freeman faced the Giants on the road in Week 2 of last year, he completed 15-of-28 passes for 243 yards, 2 TD and 2 INT, but his Bucs team lost 41-34.

The Vikings passing defense has been atrocious this season as they’ve allowed 308.0 passing YPG (29th in NFL), but they will be going against Eli Manning who has made quite a few mistakes this season, to say the least. The Vikings have already forced 12 turnovers this year, with four games of 2+ takeaways. Minnesota's rushing defense should fare well as it allows just 110.0 rushing YPG (T-17th in NFL) and will be going against mostly past-his-prime plodder Brandon Jacobs, as New York's top two backs, David Wilson and Andre Brown, deal with injuries.

The 0-6 Giants have gotten off to a terrible start this season and would really need a miraculous turnaround to put themselves into playoff contention. In last week's loss in Chicago, QB Eli Manning threw for 239 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Manning now has 15 interceptions on the year, which leads the league by a wide margin. To say he needs to take better care of the ball would be an understatement. With RB David Wilson out (neck), Brandon Jacobs handled the workload at running back and actually played a great game. Jacobs rushed 22 times for 106 yards (4.8 YPC) and two touchdowns. He will now be joined in the backfield by RB Peyton Hillis, who was signed after a tryout this week. Hillis' last NFL action came last December with the Chiefs when he rank for 101 yards on 15 carries versus the Colts. WR Reuben Randle led the Giants last week in receiving with three catches for 75 yards and a touchdown. He will continue to benefit from the extra attention that WRs Victor Cruz (35 rec, 541 yards, 4 TD) and Hakeem Nicks (25 rec, 442 yards) draw on a nightly basis.

The Giants defense is going to have to improve greatly in this game, as they have allowed 268 YPG through the air (20th in NFL) and 123.3 YPG on the ground (26th in NFL). If their run defense doesn’t show up to play, it is going to be a long night for Giants fans as Adrian Peterson is ready to explode after his limited carries in Week 6.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Vikings at Giants

October 20, 2013

The Monday night contest to close out Week 7 in the NFL isn't exactly one that will shift the balance of power in the NFC. The Vikings and Giants have combined for just one victory this season, while trying to somewhat salvage things before the main focus will be the NFL Draft coming up soon. Minnesota continues to circle the merry-go-round of quarterbacks by starting its third different signal-caller on Monday night.

Recently acquired Josh Freeman will get the start under center for the Vikings (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS), who was signed less than a week after being released by the Buccaneers. Freeman threw only two touchdown passes in three losses with Tampa Bay, while completing only 45% of his attempts. Since last Thanksgiving, the Bucs lost nine of Freeman's 10 starts, with the lone victory coming in Week 17 of 2012 against an Atlanta team that had already wrapped up home-field advantage in the NFC.

Now, Freeman takes over a Minnesota offense that has been outgained in each of its five games, while picking up just 290 yards in last Sunday's home defeat to the Panthers, 35-10. Carolina held the ball for 36 minutes, while the Minnesota defense allowed five touchdowns to the Panthers. The Vikings have given up at least 27 points in all five games, resulting in an 'over' in each contest this season.

The Giants (0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS) haven't been much better, allowing at least 36 points four times, while yielded the fewest amount of points this season in last Thursday's 27-21 setback at Chicago. Eli Manning's nightmarish season continued by tossing three more interceptions (15 this season), including one that was returned for a touchdown by Chicago's Tim Jennings. The Giants' defense stiffened up in the second half by giving up just one field goal, while cashing as 9 ½-point underdogs for their only cover of the season.

Tom Coughlin's club is playing just their third home contest, coming off double-digit defeats to the Broncos and Eagles. In both of those losses, the Giants eclipsed the 'over of 52 ½ (Denver) and 53 ½ (Philadelphia), while New York is a perfect 3-0 to the 'over' with totals listed at 49 ½ or higher. However, the 'under' is 2-1 with totals at 47 or below, with this Monday's total sitting between 46 ½ and 47.

The last time the Giants and Vikings hooked up in 2010, the game took place at Detroit's Ford Field after the Metrodome roof collapsed due to a snowstorm. New York cruised to a 21-3 victory as 4 ½-point favorites, as the Vikings' offense accumulated just 164 yards. Brandon Jacobs rushed for 116 yards and a touchdown for the Giants, who had lost their previous four meetings to Minnesota prior to this neutral-site win.

The Vikings have been slightly profitable in the underdog role this season, posting a 2-1 ATS record when receiving points. The Giants are listed as a favorite for only the second time in this miserable campaign, failing to cover in a Week 3 blowout loss at Carolina. Dating back to last season, New York has cashed in four of its last six tries as a home favorite, while scoring at least 27 points in five of those contests.

Underdogs on Monday night football have seen success this season by putting together a 4-2-1 ATS record, including San Diego’s victory over Indianapolis last Monday night. The ‘over’ is cashing at a solid pace on Mondays, going 5-2, while the winning team has put up at least 30 points five times this season under the Monday night lights.

The Giants are currently listed as 3 ½-point home favorites, while the total is set at 47. The contest can be seen nationally on ESPN with kickoff at 8:30 PM EST.

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2013 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SCHEDULE

Week Matchup Line/Total Score ATS

1 Philadelphia at Washington -4, 52 33-27 Underdog-Over

1 Houston at San Diego -5, 44 31-28 Underdog-Over

2 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati -7, 40 20-10 Favorite-Under

3 Oakland at Denver -16, 48.5 37-21 Push-Over

4 Miami at New Orleans -7, 50 38-17 Favorite-Over

5 N.Y. Jets at Atlanta -10, 45 30-28 Underdog-Over

6 Indianapolis at San Diego -1 ½, 51 19-9 Underdog-Under

7 Minnesota at N.Y. Giants - - -

8 Seattle at St. Louis - - -

9 Chicago at Green Bay - - -

10 Miami at Tampa Bay - - -

11 New England at Carolina - - -

12 San Francisco at Washington - - -

13 New Orleans at Seattle - - -

14 Dallas at Chicago - - -

15 Baltimore at Detroit - - -

16 Atlanta at San Francisco

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, October 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Minnesota - 8:40 PM ET N.Y. Giants -3.5 500 POD # 1

N.Y. Giants - Under 48 500 POD # 2

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Panthers at Buccaneers

October 23, 2013

The NFC South race is pretty much the Saints to lose at this point. Past 5-1 New Orleans, the other three teams in the division own a combined 5-13 record, as two of those clubs hook up on Thursday night. Week 8 kicks off with the winless Buccaneers hosting the surging Panthers, as Carolina has come back to life following an 0-2 start to the season.

The Panthers (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) lost a pair of tight contests to the Seahawks and Bills in the first two weeks of the season by a combined six points. Carolina is back in business by winning three of its last four games, while scoring at least 30 points in all three victories. Ron Rivera's squad hasn't beaten a team that is currently above .500, but the Panthers are taking care of their business against the foes on their schedule.

The most recent triumph for the Panthers came against the Rams last Sunday in a 30-15 home victory as 7 ½-point favorites. Cam Newton put together an efficient 15-of-17 day passing with one touchdown, while Captain Munnerlyn's interception return for a score less than a minute in to the game set the tone for Carolina. The Panthers' defense forced three turnovers, while knocking out St. Louis quarterback Sam Bradford for the season with a torn left ACL suffered in the fourth quarter.

The Buccaneers (0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS) have pretty much a disaster since the start of the season. The opening week loss to the Jets in which a late unsportsmanlike conduct penalty set up the game-winning field goal opened the door to six consecutive losses. Also, Tampa Bay cut veteran quarterback Josh Freeman after four weeks and handed the offense over to former North Carolina State standout Mike Glennon. The move hasn't resulted in wins for Tampa Bay, who suffered its most recent to another division foe last week.

Tampa Bay fell behind early in last Sunday's 31-23 defeat at Atlanta as six-point underdogs, as the Bucs trailed by as many as 17. The Falcons rushed for just 18 yards on 18 carries, but Matt Ryan torched Tampa Bay's defense for three touchdowns. Amazingly, the Bucs held onto the ball for nearly 38 minutes, while Glennon hooked up with Vincent Jackson on a pair of touchdown tosses. The game easily went 'over' the closing total of 43, the second straight 'over' for Greg Schiano's club following four consecutive 'unders' to start the season.

The Panthers are playing with double-revenge after getting swept by the Bucs last season. Tampa Bay grabbed the 2012 season opener, 13-10 to cash outright as three-point home underdogs. The Bucs jumped out to a 13-0 halftime lead before holding off a late Carolina rally, while limiting the Panthers to only 10 yards rushing. Tampa Bay pulled off the season sweep after overcoming a 21-10 deficit to stun Carolina last November, 27-21 in Charlotte. Doug Martin tore up the Panthers' defense for 138 yards on the ground, while Jackson hauled in 94 yards receiving and a touchdown.

The Bucs will be without Martin this Thursday and likely for the next few weeks with a left shoulder injury, which was suffered in the loss at Atlanta. Tampa Bay will turn to former Miami Hurricanes' running back Mike James to fill Martin's void, as James rushed for 45 yards and 14 carries against the Falcons.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero says this is a must-win for the Panthers to be a legit squad in the NFC, "Thanks in part of the relative mediocrity of the rest of the NFC, the Panthers have an opportunity to establish themselves as a playoff team at the season's midway point. They'll have to get accustomed to being the hunted, so seeing how they handle this role of road favorite against a winless team starting a rookie backfield will tell us a lot about their killer instinct. Will Newton be unleashed, or will Carolina take the cautious approach and limit risks? Both the margin of victory and total will hinge on Rivera's approach."

Since the start of 2012, the Panthers own a profitable 7-4 ATS record away from Bank of America Stadium, although they have covered just once in three tries this season. As a favorite in this stretch, Rivera's club is just 3-6 ATS, while failing to cover as road 'chalk' at Buffalo and Arizona. The Panthers have split their last six trips to Raymond James Stadium since 2007, with their last win coming in 2011 as three-point favorites.

On the flip side, the Bucs have been a horrible home underdog since Jon Gruden's departure after the 2008 season. Tampa Bay owns a dreadful 4-14 ATS record at Raymond James Stadium since 2009 when receiving points, although one of those covers came in Week 2 against New Orleans in a 16-14 loss in the final seconds as three-point 'dogs. That ATS win against the Saints was the only one through six contests for the Buccaneers this season.

The Panthers are listed as six-point favorites at many books, while the total sits at 40. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.

[StarDust Bum]

Buccaneers look for 1st win

October 24, 2013

CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-3) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (0-6)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Carolina -6.5 & 40.5
Opening Line & Total: Panthers -7 & 40.5

The Buccaneers try to win their first game of the season without top RB Doug Martin (labrum) when they host the red-hot Panthers on Thursday night.

Carolina has played turnover-free football in its past two games, winning both contests by a combined 65 to 25 score. Tampa Bay’s offense has improved slightly with QB Mike Glennon (17.0 PPG, 219 pass YPG) than with former starter Josh Freeman (11.3 PPG, 175 pass YPG), but the defense has allowed 31 points in back-to-back losses. The Bucs are now 1-11 SU (2-9-1 ATS) in their past 12 games, but actually swept the Panthers last year by outrushing them 297 to 107 yards. However, it was Doug Martin who ran for 233 of those yards, and now it will be rookie RB Mike James' turn to try to be the main ball carrier versus a Carolina run defense that ranks fourth in the NFL with 84.5 rushing YPG allowed.

Almost all of the betting trends point towards a Panthers win and cover, as they are 7-0 ATS after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the past three seasons, and 33-12 ATS (73%) versus poor offensive teams (17.0 PPG or less) in team history.

Although the Panthers rank 28th in the NFL in passing yards (197 YPG), QB Cam Newton is enjoying a fine season with a 64% completion rate, 7.8 YPA, 10 TD and 5 INT, leading to a 95.0 passer rating (10th in NFL). The one negative is the amount of sacks he's absorbed (18), but Newton also done a decent job running the football with 179 yards on 4.6 YPC with two touchdowns. Newton has fared pretty well against the Bucs in his career with a 63% completion percentage and a hefty 9.3 YPA, throwing for 6 TD and 2 INT. WR Steve Smith (293 rec. yards, 3 TD) remains his No. 1 target, but Smith has been pretty quiet in this series since 2009, averaging 50 receiving YPG with just 1 TD over eight meetings with the Bucs. TE Greg Olsen leads the team with 339 receiving yards, but Tampa Bay has done a fantastic job of shutting down opposing tight ends over the past four games, holding them to a combined 10 catches for 117 yards and 0 TD. With RB Jonathan Stewart (ankles) still at least one week away from returning from the PUP list, RB DeAngelo Williams (434 rush yards, 4.1 YPC, 0 TD) remains the main ball carrier with Mike Tolbert (3 TD) getting the goal-line work.

Defensively, the Panthers have been strong all season, leading the NFL in defensive time of possession (26:24), placing second in scoring defense (13.8 PPG) and ranking third in the league in both total defense (302 YPG allowed) and red-zone efficiency (35.7%). The team has generated 16 sacks over the past four games, and has produced multiple takeaways in each of the past five contests. The Carolina defense has a few injury concerns though, as DT Dwan Edwards (hamstring), CB D.J. Moore (knee) and DB Robert Lester (hamstring) are all questionable for Thursday's game.

Although QB Mike Glennon has been better than Josh Freeman was, the rookie has still struggled at times. Glennon has thrown for just 5.6 yards per attempt this season with a pedestrian 58.5% completion rate, 5 TD and 3 INT. He has also fumbled in all three of his starts, losing two of them. Glennon has really zeroed in on top WR Vincent Jackson, targeting him 15.7 times per game including a hefty 22 targets in last week's loss in Atlanta. That puts Jackson tied among the NFL leaders in total targets for the season (77), which he has parlayed into 544 receiving yards and 4 TD. Jackson will likely be leaned on heavily again versus a Panthers team that he gained 141 yards with a touchdown against last year, and also because No. 2 WR Mike Williams (196 rec. yards, 2 TD) is questionable for the game with a lingering hamstring injury. The only other Bucs player with at least 100 receiving yards this season is TE Timothy Wright (153 rec. yards, 0 TD) who exploded for 91 yards on seven catches in his last home game two weeks ago. Rookie RB Mike James is the only healthy running back on the roster with more than three carries this year, but he has gained just 57 yards on his 17 attempts (3.4 YPA), and his three catches last week totaled a mere eight yards.

Defensively, the Bucs have done a great job stuffing the run, allowing just 89 YPG (5th in NFL) on 3.5 YPC (4th in league). But the lack of a consistent pass rush (two total sacks in past three games) has hurt the secondary, which has allowed the past two opposing quarterbacks to complete 42-of-57 passes (74%) for 560 yards (9.8 YPA). Tampa Bay has forced just one turnover in three of its past four contests, but has been able to stay in games with a stellar red-zone defense (40%), which ranks fourth in the NFL.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

Carolina at Tampa Bay
The Panthers look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games versus a team with a losing record. Carolina is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-6). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 24

Game 103-104: Carolina at Tampa Bay (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 135.650; Tampa Bay 126.552
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 9; 37
Vegas Line: Carolina by 6; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-6); Under

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 24

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CAROLINA (3 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 6) - 10/24/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 68-38 ATS (+26.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 24

Carolina at Tampa Bay, 8:25 ET

Carolina: 12-3 ATS after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half

Tampa Bay: 3-11 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses


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NFL

Week 8

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 24

8:25 PM

CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY

Carolina is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home


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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Thursday's game

Panthers (3-3) @ Buccaneers (0-6)—Carolina has yet to allow first half TD, outscoring foes 68-17 before halftime this season; their three wins are by average score of 34-8, but their only win in three road games was 35-10 at dysfunctional Minnesota. Panthers picked off pass on opponents’ first series in each of last three games, scoring defensive TD on first play last week against Rams. Winless Bucs are 1-5 vs spread, losing home games by 2-3-11 points; since ’09, Tampa is 4-13-1 as home underdogs. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread so far this season. Bucs won four of last six series games, winning 16-10/27-21 in LY’s meetings, but Carolina is 7-3 in last ten visits here, albeit 1-2 in last three. In their last five games, Panthers have three TDs/FG on their first drive of second half, so they’re making solid halftime adjustments. Rookie QB Glennon is 0-3 as a starter, but they’ve scored 17.7 ppg in his three starts, compared to 11.3 in Freeman’s starts. Oddity: Bucs have been even in turnovers every game this season.


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NFL

Thursday, October 24

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Thursday Night Football betting: Panthers at Buccaneers
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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 40.5)

Cam Newton has been overshadowed by the highly publicized quarterback class of 2012, but he has the Carolina Panthers at .500 for the first time in his three-year tenure as they prepare to visit the winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night. The Panthers have won three of four and a victory Thursday would give them them a winning record, something that hasn't occurred since the end of the 2008 season. Tampa Bay posted a pair of six-point wins over Carolina last season.

An already-bleak season took another turn for the worse for the Buccaneers on Monday when it was revealed that second-year running back Doug Martin suffered a torn labrum in his shoulder in Sunday's 31-23 loss to Atlanta. Martin, who rushed for 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns last season as a rookie, will be sidelined indefinitely and could be done for the season. That puts more pressure on rookie quarterback Mike Glennon, who will be making his fourth career start.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The Panthers opened at -6 and have been bet down to -5.5. The total has jumped from 38.5 to 40.5.

WEATHER: Clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60s with winds blowing NE at 6 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (0.0) + Tampa Bay (+6.5) - home field (-3.0) = Buccaneers +3.5

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-3, 3-3 ATS): Newton has put up huge numbers in the past but they haven't translated into the win column. He has been steely efficient in back-to-back victories over St. Louis and Minnesota, completing 35-of-43 passes for four touchdowns and zero interceptions while posting passer ratings of 136.3 and 143.4, respectively. Carolina's defense has also play a pivotal role in the resurgence, allowing an average of 243 total yards over the past four games and yielding one TD in each of the past two.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (0-6, 1-5 ATS): Three of Tampa Bay's losses have come by a combined six points, so circumstances are not as dire as the record indicates despite the reported friction between the players and coach Greg Schiano. Although Martin is the focal point of the offense, he has struggled in his second season and been held to 67 rushing yards or fewer in four of the six games. Glennon is developeding a nice rapport with wideout Vincent Jackson, who has 19 receptions for 252 yards and four TDs in the past two games.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Tampa Bay.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The teams have alternated series sweeps over the past four seasons.

2. Newton has five TD passes and zero interceptions with four rushing scores in his last three versus the Buccaneeers.

3. Tampa Bay churned out 297 rushing yards in the two wins over Carolina last season.


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NFL

Thursday, October 24

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Tale of the tape: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers begin life without one of their offensive lynchpins as they tangle with the visiting Carolina Panthers on Thursday night in an NFC South showdown.

The Buccaneers have dropped six consecutive games to start the season and have lost stud running back Doug Martin to a torn labrum. Mike James gets the start in Martin's absence, but he'll have his hands full with a Carolina defense that has stuffed opposing rushers all season.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Buccaneers have scuffled on the offensive end this season, though things may be looking up after rookie quarterback Mike Glennon racked up 256 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last week's 31-23 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Tampa Bay is still averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game, and a rush attack that ranks just 20th in the NFL in yards per game (101.2) will likely struggle further with the downgrade from Martin to James.

Carolina is also having trouble generating offense through the air, posting just 197.3 passing yards per game. The biggest difference between the division rivals is on the ground, where the Panthers rank seventh in the NFL with better than 130 yards per contest while putting up five touchdowns. The likely return of running back Jonathan Stewart in Week 9 from ankle injuries that have sidelined him all season should further bolster the Carolina running game.

Edge: Carolina


Defense

Depite the Buccaneers' early-season struggles, the Tampa Bay run defense remains one of the toughest in the league. Teams are averaging fewer than 89 rushing yards per game against the Bucs, and they are tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the fewest rushing touchdowns against (one). The pass defense has been more porous, allowing the 18th-most yards per game (252) while surrendering 11 touchdowns, tied for 11th-most in the league.

Carolina's charge toward an NFC playoff berth is being built on the strength of its defense. The Panthers have been one of the stingiest teams in the NFL against the pass, limiting opposing teams to 218 yards per game and five total touchdowns - tied with Pittsburgh for the fewest in the league. The run defense is also stout, surrendering the fourth-fewest yards per contest (84.5) and giving up just a pair of scores through the first six weeks.

Edge: Carolina


Special Teams

Tampa Bay has been solid in the return game, averaging the fifth-most yards on kickoffs (27.6) and ranking 10th in punt-return average (10.8). The Bucs have the ninth-best kickoff return average against (22) and are allowing the opposition just seven yards per punt return. Veteran kicker Rian Lindell is just 8-of-10 on field-goal attempts, but connected on all three of his attempts last weekend against the Falcons.

The Panthers have been a below-average return team so far in 2013, ranked 20th in kickoff-return average (22.8) and tied for 24th on punt returns (6.3). The Panthers have surrendered the 11th-most kickoff yards per attempt (23) and are allowing 10.3 yards per punt return, the seventh-highest mark in the league. Kicker Graham Gano hasn't been busy - his nine field-goal attempts are tied for the fewest in the NFL - but he has connected on all of them.


Notable Quotable

"What's most important is I think the guys recognize that every other NFL player watches this game, at least if they're a football fan they do. The Thursday night football game is part of their week. It's a big part of our league. When you get a chance to be the only show in the league, everybody understands that." - Buccaneers head coach Greg Schiano on the importance of performing well on the national stage

"We're relevant. We're a young team that has gotten to a point now where we're doing the things that we need to do and showing what we're capable of. It's a great opportunity for this team, for this city, to make a mark. We have to go out and do that." - Carolina head coach Ron Rivera

[StarDust Bum]

2013 THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SCHEDULE

Week Matchup Line/Total Score ATS

1 Baltimore at Denver -7.5, 48.5 49-27 Favorite-Over

2 N.Y. Jets at New England -11, 43 13-10 Underdog-Under

3 Kansas City at Philadelphia -3, 51 26-16 Underdog-Under

4 San Francisco at St. Louis -3.5, 43 35-11 Favorite-Over

5 Buffalo at Cleveland -3.5, 41 37-24 Favorite-Over

6 N.Y. Giants at Chicago -8, 47 27-21 Underdog-Over

7 Seattle at Arizona -5, 41 34-22 Favorite-Over

8 Carolina at Tampa Bay - - -

9 Cincinnati at Miami - - -

10 Washington at Minnesota - - -

11 Indianapolis at Tennessee - - -

12 New Orleans at Atlanta - - -

13 Pittsburgh at Baltimore - - -

14 Houston at Jacksonville - - -

15 San Diego at Denver - - -

16 Miami at Buffalo - - -

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/21/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/20/13 12-*13-*1 48.00% -*1150 Detail
10/17/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/14/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/13/13 13-*12-*1 52.00% -*100 Detail
10/10/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/07/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/06/13 10-*14-*0 41.67% -*2700 Detail
10/03/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 43-*43-*2 50.00% -*2150


Thursday, October 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Carolina - 8:25 PM ET Carolina -6.5 500 POD # 1

Tampa Bay - Under 39.5 500 POD # 2

[StarDust Bum]

NFL odds: Week 8 opening line report: Rams big dogs without Bradford

Quarterbacks seem to be dropping like flies these days, and you can add St. Louis Rams passer Sam Bradford to that growing list.

The Rams, who fell 30-15 to Carolina Sunday, announced that Bradford would miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL, leaving the offense in the hands of backup Kellen Clemens.

Oddsmakers opened St. Louis as a 10-point home underdog hosting the Seattle Seahawks Monday night and quickly took action on the road team, jumping up as high as St. Louis +11.

“One of the bigger moves so far,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag tells Covers. “Bradford is done for the season, but we’re not sure how much of a downgrade Kellen Clemens is. Definitely worth a point less.”

Stewart says sharps love double-digit NFL underdogs – especially at home – and does expect some action to come back on the Rams as this spread gets higher and higher. The public has been in love with Seattle all season and will keep betting the Seahawks right until kickoff.

“It's a brutal Monday Night Football game for us to book because parlays, teasers and pretty much 75 percent of the straight action is going to be on the Seahawks,” says Stewart. “Needing this Rams team in this stand alone game is already giving me an ulcer.”

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5)

The Patriots are coming off a crushing overtime loss to the rival Jets Sunday, giving up an extra crack at the game-winning field goal due to a controversial call - Rule 9, Section 1, Article 3. New England opened as a 6.5-point home favorite, hosting Miami Sunday.

“We were debating 6.5 and seven, and instead of opening on that key number -7, we opened at -6.5 and put some added juice on the favorite,” says Stewart. “(New England head coach Bill) Belichick is great SU and ATS off a loss, but this Patriots team isn't as good as years past. Lots of holes on defense.”

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3)

The Cowboys continue to be the big breadwinner this season, boosting their ATS mark to 6-1 after a solid performance against Philadelphia Sunday. However, books have their eye on Dallas heading into Week 8, and have tabbed the Lions as 3-point home chalk. Detroit is 1-2 in its last three games, coming off a loss to Cincinnati in Week 7.

“The Lions opened -3 because the spot for Cowboys is awful,” says Stewart. “They're off two key divisional wins as well as playing the second of back-to-back road games. Throw in all their injury issues and I believe the sharps will back the Lions here. But the public is already pounding ‘America's Team’."

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 24

Carolina at Tampa Bay, 8:25 ET
Carolina: 12-3 ATS after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half
Tampa Bay: 3-11 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses


Sunday, October 27

San Francisco at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 20-8 ATS in games played on a grass field
Jacksonville: 5-16 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Dallas at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 8-26 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive unders
Detroit: 11-3 OVER as a favorite

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 32-12 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Philadelphia: 0-6 ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points

Cleveland at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS in road games in weeks 5 through 9
Kansas City: 13-4 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Buffalo at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 0-6 ATS off a upset win as an underdog
New Orleans: 19-8 ATS in games played on turf

Miami at New England, 1:00 ET
Miami: 2-11 ATS off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite
New England: 11-2 ATS off a division game

NY Jets at Cincinnati, 4:05 ET
NY Jets: 1-9 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Cincinnati: 12-2 ATS after allowing 350 or more passing yards in their last game

Pittsburgh at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Pittsburgh: 58-33 ATS in weeks 5 through 9
Oakland: 7-21 ATS in home games off a road loss against a division rival

Washington at Denver, 4:25 ET
Washington: 14-3 ATS in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game
Denver: 0-7 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 4 straight games

Atlanta at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Atlanta: 31-50 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Arizona: 20-7 ATS in home games off a home loss

Green Bay at Minnesota, 8:30 ET
Green Bay: 12-2 ATS versus division opponents
Minnesota: 55-34 OVER in weeks 5 through 9


Monday, October 28

Seattle at St Louis, 8:40 ET
Seattle: 16-4 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
St Louis: 30-51 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 8

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 8:

Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos (-13, 58.5)

Redskins’ poor punting vs. Broncos’ field position

Washington’s special teams have been anything but, especially on punts. The Redskins rank dead last with an average of 42.1 yards per punt and is allowing opponents to run back those boots for 21.6 yards per return – another league worst. Washington has watched two punts returned for six points, most recently to Chicago’s Devin Hester last Sunday, and had one punt blocked for a score versus the Raiders.

Giving the Broncos great field position is like loading the guns for your firing squad. Denver doesn’t need much help moving the chains, and has one of the better return teams in the NFL. Speedster Trindon Holliday already has a punt return TD this year, with Denver ranked sixth in punt returns. That’s helped give Peyton Manning an average starting field position of 29.06 yards.


Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3, 51)

Cowboys’ terrible third downs vs. Lions’ third-down defense

Dallas has one of the most explosive offenses in the league but has watched that attack stall on third downs. The Cowboys rank in the middle of the pack for third-down conversion percentage (37.5%) on the season, but were dismal on third down last week versus Philadelphia. Tony Romo & Co. went just 5-for-16 on third down and punted the ball away nine times. Dallas has had trouble moving the chains on third downs away from Big D, posting a 30.56 percent third-down conversion rate on the road – fourth lowest in the NFL.

Detroit has limited its foes to just 3.7 third-down conversions per game this season, which ranks second lowest in the league. The Lions defense is holding opponents to a 29.89 percent success rate on those third downs, trimming that to a NFL-low 21.21 percent inside Ford Field. The Lions have forced teams to kick 2.7 field goals per game, which also ranks among the NFL elite.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (+1, 40)

Steelers’ cross-country hike vs. Raiders’ rush-heavy attack

Pittsburgh is coming off a grueling battle with the rival Ravens in Week 7, stacking up a long list of injuries, and now must travel across the map to take on the Raiders. Not only are the Steelers limping into the weekend but they haven’t fared well when making the cross-country trek. Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five trips out west (losses at San Francisco, Houston, Oakland and Denver) and was knocked off by the Raiders, 34-31, in Oakland last season.

The Raiders have fresh legs coming off the bye week and will look to pound a tired Pittsburgh defense with their ninth-ranked rushing attack. On top of dual-threat QB Terrelle Pryor, who has scrambled for 285 yards, the Steelers will have to contain RB Darren McFadden, who gashed them for 113 yards and a score last season. Pittsburgh's run stop unit is not as strong as past years, allowing foes to rush for an average of 109.3 yards per game.


Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+9.5, 47)

Packers’ run defense vs. Vikings’ RB Adrian Peterson

Rarely do we have Peterson on this side of the mismatch. Usually “All Day” is exploiting a mushy run defense in our weekly feature. However, with everything going on off the field and the Vikings’ QB woes on it, Peterson hasn’t come near the numbers of 2012. In his last two efforts, he’s mustered a total of 90 yards on 23 carries – an average of 3.91 yards per attempt. That’s below his season average of 4.4. Along with an understandable lack of focus following the death of his son, Peterson is nursing a sore hamstring and missed practice this week.

Green Bay knows what’s coming Sunday. With Minnesota playing musical chairs under center, the Packers can almost forget the passing game and focus solely on stopping Peterson. The Cheese Heads are undergoing a defensive renaissance this fall and boast the third toughest rushing defense in the NFL. Teams are picking up only three yards per carry in the Packers last three games and Green Bay has faced some reputable rushing attacks this season.

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NFL Betting Week 8 Preview Hot bets and moving odds

All odds current as of noon ET, Oct. 24

Half way through the NFL regular season, you aren’t going to see the major line moves that we saw through the first eight weeks barring major injuries or starting lineup moves. And even if there are significant moves, these lines are tight enough that they usually won’t move much. Such is the case this week when a pile of backup quarterbacks will be forced into duty.

Talking Thursday Night’s total

Even though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be starting two rookies in the backfield, this total continues to rise. With Doug Martin hitting the shelf last week, rookie Mike James will start at running back in the backfield with rookie Mike Glennon. The total opened at 38.5 but is now sitting at 40.5 points.

Calling all QBs

Kellen Clemens gets the call for St. Louis after Sam Bradford went down with a season-ending knee injury last week. His first test at home to the Seattle Seahawks couldn’t be much tougher. The Rams, who even called Brett Favre to come out of retirement, are holding as 10.5-point home dogs while the total has dropped a point from the open to 42.5.

Meanwhile, things couldn’t get much worse for Cleveland offense as Jason Campbell steps up in place of the benched Brandon Weeden. The Browns are holding as 7.5-point road underdogs at Kansas City.

Josh Freeman’s debut with the Vikings couldn’t have gone worse. He was terrible in Week 7 and now has a concussion, so Minnesota will go back to the well with Christian Ponder on Sunday night against the Packers. The Vikings have moved from +10 to +9.

Mike Vick looks like the man again in Philadelphia now that he is reportedly healthy while Nick Foles deals with a concussion. The Eagles host the Giants as 5.5-point favorites, down half a point from the open.

Hot and not

The betting public is all over the Carolina Panthers in Thursday Night Football action. About 82 percent of Sports Interaction’s handle is on the Panthers as they visit the Buccaneers.

Bettors love the 7-0 Chiefs at home to Cleveland as well. Chiefs supporters make up 81 percent of our action as of noon Thursday.

The New Orleans Saints are seeing 77 percent of our action as they host the Buffalo Bills as 11.5-point favorites.

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Jaguars (0-7) vs 49ers (5-2) (London)—Our condolences to Jaguar coach Bradley, who just lost his dad, will re-join team later this week in London. Niners won/covered last four games by average score of 33-13, figure to squash hideous Jaguar squad that lost first seven games by double figures, something that hasn’t happened in 30+ years. Only game Jax covered was 35-19 loss in Denver when they were getting 27 points; their offense has improved last three games, averaging 359.3 ypg, after averaging 224 ypg in first four losses, but their closest loss this year was 19-9 (+6) at Oakland in Week 2. 49ers are 5-1 as favorites this year, 21-8-1 in Harbaugh era; they’re +8 in turnovers in last three games (10-2) and have won field position by average of 12 yards per game during 4-game win streak- they were held to 3-7 points in their two losses. Six of Jags’ seven opponents scored 24+ points. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 7-9 vs spread, 5-4 on road. Three of last four 49er games went over the total.

Cowboys (4-3) @ Lions (4-3)—Dallas is 6-1 vs spread this year, 3-0 when getting points; in two games since 51-48 loss to Denver, Cowboys allowed only one offensive TD on 25 drives, no TDs/four FGs on five red zone drives, so their defense has improved since then. Pokes are in Motor City for first time in six years; they’re 5-2 in last seven series games, with average total in last four meetings, 60.8- their win in Philly last week was their first in three road games. Detroit’s special teams cost them in close loss to Cincy last week, giving up blocked 34-yard FG and then shanking punt in last minute that sent them to first loss in three home games- they’re 2-1 as home favorite this year, 10-7 in last 17 such games. In last five games, Dallas has scored TD on first drive in seven of 12 halves- impressive!!! Lions have been outscored 20-0 on first drive of games this season. Average total in Detroit’s three home games this year is 60.3, with all three going over total. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-8-1 vs spread, 2-5-1 at home; NFC East underdogs are 3-4 vs spread, 2-3 on road.

Giants (1-6) @ Eagles (3-4)—Vick is starting QB for Iggles here, who have now lost nine home games in a row; they’ve won eight of last ten games in this series, beating Giants 36-21 (+2.5) three weeks ago, outrushing them 140-53 with four takeaways (+4) in game where Giants had 136 penalty yards. Am guessing Vick starts after Foles was knocked silly last week by Dallas. NY lost three of last four visits here, losing by 23-10-2 points. Big Blue is on short week after getting first win in 23-7 snoozer over inept Vikings, game where Giants had only 64 rushing yards and averaged 4.7 yards/pass attempt, with TD/three FGs in four red zone drives- in their seven games, Giants are a total of -4 yards on 20 plays with two turnovers in their first drive of third quarter, so they’re not making good adjustments at halftime. Giants are 0-4 on road, 1-3 as road dogs, giving up average of 33.5 ppg away from home. Five of seven Eagle games, four of seven Giant games went over the total. NFL wide, divisional home favorites are 15-7 vs spread so far this season, 3-3 in NFC East.

Browns (3-4) @ Chiefs (7-0)—Cinderella Chiefs are last unbeaten in NFL, can get to halfway mark 8-0 with win here; they’re 2-2 as home favorites this year (5-16-1 since ’07) with pair of 17-16 wins (Cowboys/Texans) at Arrowhead- they’ve given up only 7.5 ppg at home (four TDs on 46 drives). KC was minus in turnovers last week for first time this season; they’re still +11 for season. Browns are 0-4 when Weeden starts, 3-0 with Hoyer (out for year), which is why Jason Campbell might get nod here; in their last five games, Browns were outscored 35-0 on first drive of each half, outgained 467-83 on those ten drives. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 8-5 vs spread, 4-3 at home; AFC North underdogs are 6-4-1, 3-2-1 on foreign soil. Cleveland won three of last four series games, splitting pair (20-41/41-34) in last two visits here, but this is their first visit here since ‘09. Six of KC’s seven games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites of 4+ points are 16-10 vs spread this season.

Bills (3-4) @ Saints (5-1)—Saints won/covered last four post-bye games, scoring 42 ppg; they’re 3-0 as home favorites this year, winning 23-17/31-7/38-17 scores, and are 11-0 vs spread in last 11 home games coached by Payton (suspended in ’12). Only one of Buffalo’s seven games (37-24 loss in Cleveland on a Thursday) was decided by more than seven points; Bills are 5-2 as a dog this season, but home side covered six of their seven games (1-2 as road dogs). Buffalo scored 20+ points in every game this year, despite starting two rookie QBs (Lewis has been around a little, but had only one start before this year). NO won last three games vs Buffalo by average score of 23-7, as home side won last five series games, but this is Bills’ first visit to Bourbon Street since ’98 (they lost 19-7 to Saints in Alamodome in ’05, when Saints were displaced by the hurricane). NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC East road dogs are 2-4. Five of last six Buffalo games went over the total.

Dolphins (3-3) @ Patriots (5-2)—Miami had ball and 21-20 lead with 3:00 left last week, when sack/fumble in Fish territory set Bills up for winning FG, bitter loss for Miami team that hasn’t won since Week 3, losing last three games while allowing 29 ppg, with two of three losses by FG each (missed tying 57-yard FG at gun vs Ravens in Week 5). Dolphins lost six in row and 10 of last 12 games vs Patriots, losing last four visits here by 10-31-3-28 points. Miami is 2-1 as road dogs this year, losing 38-17 in Superdome, after opening season with mild upset wins at Cleveland/Indy. Since ’03, Belichick is 24-9 vs spread in game following a loss; NE has only one win (23-3 over winless Bucs) by more than seven points; three of its five wins are by 2 or 3 points- they’re 2-1 as home favorites, 20-15 in that role since ’09, but they’re just 10-15 vs spread in last 25 games as a divisional HF (30-19-2 as non-div. HF). Fish are 25-12-1 in last 38 games as a road dog, 9-4 in last 13 divisional games. Last five Miami games and three of last four Patriot games went over the total.

Jets (4-3) @ Bengals (5-2)—How will Cincy handle prosperity of two-game lead in AFC North? Bengals are 3-0 at home, winning by 10-4-7 points; they’re 5-2-1 in last eight games as a home favorite, 18-8-1 in game following their last 27 wins. Five of Jets’ seven games this year were decided by 7 or less points; they’re 4-2 as underdogs and are coming off home upset of Patriots, where they outgained Pats by 88 yards and were 11-21 on third down (NE was 1-12). Jets won four in row, nine of last ten games in this series, with last four wins all by 10+ points, but teams haven’t met since ’10 and Gang Green hasn’t been here since 24-14 win in ’09 playoffs. Bengals are 5-2 despite being plus in turnovers in only one game; they’ve had three takeaways in last four games, but they did block a short FG in Detroit last week. Jets are -10 in turnovers in their three losses, -1 in the four wins, but they also haven’t won two games in a row yet- their losses are by 3-25-13 points. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-4 this year, 2-2 at home; AFC East underdogs are 6-5, 2-4 on road.

Steelers (2-4) @ Raiders (2-4)—Pitt allowed only 22 points in two post-win byes (one TD on 18 drives) after being 0-4 before bye; they’re 1-2 away from home, beating Jets 19-6, losing to Cincy by 10, by 7 to Vikings in London. Since ’06, Steelers are 7-17-1 as a non-divisional road favorite. Raider QB Pryor is from western Pennsylvania, so this is special game for him, but Oakland lost its last ten post-bye games (1-9 vs spread); last time they won post-bye game was last year they made Super Bowl, ’02. Home side won five of six Raider games; they’re 2-1 at home, losing only to Redskins- they’re 2-4 as home underdog under Allen, 1-1 this year. Oakland lost three of last four games before its bye; they allowed 9-17 points in their wins, 21+ (average of 26.5) in losses. Home team won five of last six series games; Steelers lost 20-13/34-21 in last two visits here- their last win here was 1995. Three of four Oakland losses (Ind-Den-KC) are to elite teams in league, while Steelers lost to Titans/Vikings. Under is 4-1-1 in Raider games, 4-2 in Steeler games this season.

Redskins (2-4) @ Broncos (6-1)—Shanahan won two Super Bowls in Mile High City, returns here with 2-4 Redskin squad that 27+ allowed points in five of six games this year and almost lost to Bears’ backup QB at home last week when they scored 45 points. Skins’ defense may be without DB Meriwether (suspension) and against #18 in altitude, you need all the DBs you can find. Denver lost for first time in ’13 last week, despite outgaining Colts by 95 years; they were -2 in turnovers and have six giveaways (-3) in last two games, after having seven in first five games (+1); since 2006, Manning is 9-2 vs spread in game following a loss. Broncos are 3-1 as home favorites this year, winning by 22-16-32-16 points, with only non-cover when they were laying 27 to Jaguars two weeks ago. Redskins have yet to score TD (four FGs, five 3/outs) on first drive of a half. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 3-4 vs spread, 2-3 on road; AFC West favorites are 8-5, 4-3 at home. All seven Denver games went over the total; three of last four Redskin games stayed under, even with last week’s shootout.

Falcons (2-4) @ Cardinals (3-4)—Atlanta had been 22-10-2 under Smith in games with spread of 3 or less, but they’re 0-3 this year; first road game in over a month for Falcon squad that is 0-2 on road, losing both games when they failed in red zone in last 1:00, on offense in Superdome, on defense in Miami. Atlanta won six of last eight series games, but lost four of five visits here, including 30-24 loss in ’08 playoffs. Falcons won their post-bye game last week but ran ball for only 18 yards and were outgained by 46 yards by winless Bucs; they’ve been strong on first drive of a half (outscored foes 38-3) but they’ve been dreadful in clutch spots late in game. Key to Arizona offense is health of WR Fitzgerald, who caught two balls in going half-speed thru Thursday loss to SF last game; it almost makes sense for him to sit out here and get back to 100%. Cardinals outscored last three opponents 17-0 on first drive of 3rd quarter, but Arizona has yet to lead (0-6-1) at halftime this year, so they need to get off to better starts (TD/INT/4 punts on first drive of game). Last five Falcon games went over the total.

Packers (4-2) @ Vikings (1-5)—Newly acquired QB Freeman apparently got a concussion during Monday’s hideous (20-53 passing) loss in Swamp, so Ponder gets nod here, Vikings’ third different starting QB in last three games, 4th in last seven. How does team with Peterson at RB throw 53 passes and run only 14 times? Minnesota lost six of seven games to rival Packers, losing two of last three played here- they were -3 in turnovers in 24-10 playoff loss at Lambeau last January, game that Vikes outrushed Pack 167-76, but they completed only 11-30 passes as backup/current WR Webb QB’d that game. Green Bay allowed 34 points in both its losses, at SF/Cincy; they’re 3-0 since their bye, holding teams to 13 ppg (four TDs on 32 drives). Pack’s only road win in three tries was 19-17 (-3) at Baltimore when GB ran ball for 140 yards but kicked FG on both red zone drives. Minnesota had run ball for 126.8 ypg in 1-3 start, but to play so poorly in post-bye game and now to change QBs again, you have to wonder if anyone in Metrodome knows what they’re doing. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 15-7 vs spread this season.

Seahawks (7-1) @ Rams (3-4)—Kellen Clemens gets first Ram start under center with Bradford (knee) out for year, not exactly what is needed vs Seattle team that is 14-2 in last 16 series games, though they did lose two of last three visits here, with average total in their last three visits here, 28.7. 4th road game in five weeks for Seattle, with all four games in domes; Seahawks are 5-2 vs spread this year, 3-1 on road, with wins on foreign soil by 5-3-12 points and 34-28 loss at Indy (led 12-0 early). Popular wisdom is that Rams will try to run more with backup QB, but defenses will load up box and make Clemens try and beat them; Rams are 0-4 this year when scoring less than 27 points. On their first drive of game, St Louis has run 26 plays for 70 yards (2.7 ypp) for no points- they’ll need to get ahead early, to keep smallish crowd engaged. If Game 5 of World Series is going on couple of blocks away, this could be a very small crowd. Five of last six Seattle series wins are by 10+ points. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 6-3 vs spread this season. Four of last five Seattle games, six of seven St Louis tilts went over the total.

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NFL

Sunday, October 27

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Cowboys at Lions: What bettors need to know
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Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3, 51)

The Dallas Cowboys are riding a two-game winning streak and starting to put up some impressive defensive numbers to go along with Tony Romo and the offense. That passing defense will get a workout on Sunday when the Cowboys visit Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and the Detroit Lions. The Lions are sixth in the NFL in passing at an average of 304.1 yards but are giving up nearly as many yards in the secondary.

Dallas’ defense got a wake-up call in a 51-48 loss to the Denver Broncos on Oct. 6 and has been a different unit since, holding its last two opponents to a total of 19 points. The Cowboys are beginning their defensive turnaround without a few big names on the line and could be without end DeMarcus Ware (strained right quad) for a second straight game on Sunday. Detroit dropped two of its last three games and suffered its first home loss against Cincinnati last week.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: The Lions opened as 3-point home faves. The total opened 51.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (4-3): Romo is tied with Stafford and Philip Rivers for second in the NFL with 15 TD passes and wide receiver Dez Bryant is making noise like he wants to be mentioned in the same conversation with Johnson as the best receiver in the league. Romo and Bryant hooked up for 110 yards in a 17-3 road victory over the Philadelphia Eagles last week but were the secondary story behind the defense. With Ware sitting out the contest, Dallas still forced three turnovers and recorded three sacks in a dominating performance.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-3): Detroit started out 3-1 with two victories within the NFC North but could not get over the hump against playoff contenders Green Bay and Cincinnati in two of the last three weeks. Stafford passed for 357 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Bengals, but Reggie Bush was held to 50 yards on 20 carries and the defense could not get the stop it needed on Cincinnati’s final drive. The bright spot was Johnson, who has been hampered by knee issues but broke out for 155 yards and a pair of TD catches.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Lions last four home games.
* Lions are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games in October.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Johnson (knee) sat out practice on Wednesday but was back Thursday and is listed as questionable.

2. Cowboys WR Miles Austin (hamstring) has been limited in practice and is questionable.

3. Dallas RB DeMarco Murray (knee ligament sprain) missed last week but returned to practice on Wednesday.