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Packers and Ravens clash Sunday in Baltimore
GREEN BAY PACKERS (2-2)
at BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-2)
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 48.5
The Packers seek their first win streak of the season when they visit the Ravens on Sunday.
While Green Bay is 0-2 (SU and ATS) on the road, allowing 34 points in both defeats, Baltimore is 2-0 (SU and ATS) at home, winning those games by a combined score of 44 to 15. However, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has a stellar 333 passing YPG, 9 TD and 3 INT this year, while Ravens QB Joe Flacco has 272 passing YPG, 5 TD and 8 INT. The good news for Flacco is that he will not have to worry about Green Bay pass-rushing star OLB Clay Matthews, who is out with a broken thumb. The Packers have run the ball extremely well in their past two games (362 yards, 5.7 YPC), but Baltimore has given up just 3.4 YPC this season (5th in NFL). Green Bay has thrived as a favorite under Mike McCarthy, going 51-33 (61%), but the Ravens are 11-2 ATS (85%) at home off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992. These teams have met four times since 1998 with the home team prevailing in each contest by at least eight points. When these clubs last met in Baltimore in 2005, the Ravens rolled to a 48-3 victory.
The Packers' offense has once again been outstanding, gaining 6.7 yards per play (2nd in NFL), and placing third in the league in both points (29.5 PPG) and total yards (453.3 YPG). A great run/pass balance has achieved this success, as the team ranks second in the NFL with 5.3 yards per carry and third in the NFL with 8.2 yards per pass attempt. QB Aaron Rodgers has been able to lead this offense despite taking 11 sacks in four games. While he has been nearly flawless at home (75.0% completions, 10.5 YPA, 5 TD, 0 INT), Rodgers has been ordinary on the road, completing 58.8% of his passes for 577 yards, 4 TD and 3 INT. Rodgers has four talented receivers, who have all been targeted at least 22 times this season and who each have 2+ touchdown grabs. WR Randall Cobb leads the team in targets (38) and catches (25) while WR Jordy Nelson paces the club in receiving yards (371) and touchdowns (three), and WR James Jones has been the big-play threat with a 17.8 yards-per-catch average, boosted greatly by an 83-yard touchdown catch last week. TE Jermichael Finely has caught at least five passes in three of his four games. Rookie RB Eddie Lacy is coming off his best performance as a pro last week versus Detroit, rumbling for 99 yards on 23 carries (4.3 YPC). Although his backup, rookie RB Johnathan Franklin, has rushed for a hefty 6.5 YPC this year, Franklin has fumbled in each of the past two weeks, and will likely be delegated to third-string once RB James Starks (187 rush yards, 5.5 YPC) returns from a knee injury, which could be in Week 7. Defensively, Green Bay has been the worst team in the league in terms of red zone efficiency (82%), and has also been burned through the air for 288.8 passing YPG (26th in NFL) and 7.9 YPA (27th in league). The Packers have stuffed the run effectively though, allowing just 86.0 rushing YPG (5th in NFL) and 3.7 YPC (7th in league). The Packers have generated 12 sacks this season, but could struggle in this department without team sack leader OLB Clay Matthews (3 sacks), who is out for the next month with a fractured thumb. This adds to a growing list of injured defenders that includes CB Casey Hayward (hamstring, out), LB Rob Francois (Achilles, out) and LB Brad Jones (hamstring, doubtful). Green Bay has also been hurt by its lack of takeaways, having forced 0-to-1 turnovers in three of its four games this season, but hopes to be able to put major pressure on turnover-prone Ravens QB Joe Flacco.
Flacco has thrown just two touchdown passes and six picks over his past three games, but his team has still won two of those contests. Although this is a pass-heavy offense with Flacco tied for sixth in the NFL in passing attempts (201), RB Ray Rice finally being close to 100 percent will certainly help the team run the football better. The Ravens currently rank second-worst in the NFL with 2.8 yards per carry, but are coming off their best output of the season in terms of rushing yards (133) and YPC (3.3). Rice has never been below 4.0 YPC in his career, but currently has a dreadful 2.9 YPC rate, which hasn't been much better in the receiving game where he has 4.2 yards per catch. Much of this dropoff has been the result of a nagging hip injury. Rice's back-up, second-year RB Bernard Pierce, has been just as inefficient both on the ground (2.9 YPC) and through the air (four catches for seven yards). With the Packers' secondary struggling this season, WRs Torrey Smith and Marlon Brown will be the keys to this offense. Smith is having an incredible 2013 campaign with 556 yards on a 20.6 average, which both rank second in the NFL. He already has 223 yards after catch (3rd in NFL) and 8.3 YAC per reception (4th in league). Smith has also been helped by the emergence of the undrafted rookie Brown, who has caught touchdown passes in three of his four NFL games. Brown missed last week with a thigh injury, but is listed as probable for Sunday. Since being blown out in Denver in Week 1, the Ravens defense has been outstanding, holding its past four opponents to 15.3 PPG and 291.8 total YPG. This includes limiting Miami to 22 yards on 11 carries last week, which improved the run defense numbers to 89.8 rushing YPG allowed (6th in NFL) and 3.4 YPC (5th in league). The pass defense has also been strong since that loss to Peyton Manning and the Broncos, surrendering only 195.8 passing YPG on 5.8 YPA in the past four contests. Like Green Bay, Baltimore is also dealing with its share of injuries on defense with LB Arthur Brown (shoulder), NT Terrence Cody (knee) and DT Marcus Spears (knee) all questionable for this matchup.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (2-2)
at BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-2)
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 48.5
The Packers seek their first win streak of the season when they visit the Ravens on Sunday.
While Green Bay is 0-2 (SU and ATS) on the road, allowing 34 points in both defeats, Baltimore is 2-0 (SU and ATS) at home, winning those games by a combined score of 44 to 15. However, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has a stellar 333 passing YPG, 9 TD and 3 INT this year, while Ravens QB Joe Flacco has 272 passing YPG, 5 TD and 8 INT. The good news for Flacco is that he will not have to worry about Green Bay pass-rushing star OLB Clay Matthews, who is out with a broken thumb. The Packers have run the ball extremely well in their past two games (362 yards, 5.7 YPC), but Baltimore has given up just 3.4 YPC this season (5th in NFL). Green Bay has thrived as a favorite under Mike McCarthy, going 51-33 (61%), but the Ravens are 11-2 ATS (85%) at home off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992. These teams have met four times since 1998 with the home team prevailing in each contest by at least eight points. When these clubs last met in Baltimore in 2005, the Ravens rolled to a 48-3 victory.
The Packers' offense has once again been outstanding, gaining 6.7 yards per play (2nd in NFL), and placing third in the league in both points (29.5 PPG) and total yards (453.3 YPG). A great run/pass balance has achieved this success, as the team ranks second in the NFL with 5.3 yards per carry and third in the NFL with 8.2 yards per pass attempt. QB Aaron Rodgers has been able to lead this offense despite taking 11 sacks in four games. While he has been nearly flawless at home (75.0% completions, 10.5 YPA, 5 TD, 0 INT), Rodgers has been ordinary on the road, completing 58.8% of his passes for 577 yards, 4 TD and 3 INT. Rodgers has four talented receivers, who have all been targeted at least 22 times this season and who each have 2+ touchdown grabs. WR Randall Cobb leads the team in targets (38) and catches (25) while WR Jordy Nelson paces the club in receiving yards (371) and touchdowns (three), and WR James Jones has been the big-play threat with a 17.8 yards-per-catch average, boosted greatly by an 83-yard touchdown catch last week. TE Jermichael Finely has caught at least five passes in three of his four games. Rookie RB Eddie Lacy is coming off his best performance as a pro last week versus Detroit, rumbling for 99 yards on 23 carries (4.3 YPC). Although his backup, rookie RB Johnathan Franklin, has rushed for a hefty 6.5 YPC this year, Franklin has fumbled in each of the past two weeks, and will likely be delegated to third-string once RB James Starks (187 rush yards, 5.5 YPC) returns from a knee injury, which could be in Week 7. Defensively, Green Bay has been the worst team in the league in terms of red zone efficiency (82%), and has also been burned through the air for 288.8 passing YPG (26th in NFL) and 7.9 YPA (27th in league). The Packers have stuffed the run effectively though, allowing just 86.0 rushing YPG (5th in NFL) and 3.7 YPC (7th in league). The Packers have generated 12 sacks this season, but could struggle in this department without team sack leader OLB Clay Matthews (3 sacks), who is out for the next month with a fractured thumb. This adds to a growing list of injured defenders that includes CB Casey Hayward (hamstring, out), LB Rob Francois (Achilles, out) and LB Brad Jones (hamstring, doubtful). Green Bay has also been hurt by its lack of takeaways, having forced 0-to-1 turnovers in three of its four games this season, but hopes to be able to put major pressure on turnover-prone Ravens QB Joe Flacco.
Flacco has thrown just two touchdown passes and six picks over his past three games, but his team has still won two of those contests. Although this is a pass-heavy offense with Flacco tied for sixth in the NFL in passing attempts (201), RB Ray Rice finally being close to 100 percent will certainly help the team run the football better. The Ravens currently rank second-worst in the NFL with 2.8 yards per carry, but are coming off their best output of the season in terms of rushing yards (133) and YPC (3.3). Rice has never been below 4.0 YPC in his career, but currently has a dreadful 2.9 YPC rate, which hasn't been much better in the receiving game where he has 4.2 yards per catch. Much of this dropoff has been the result of a nagging hip injury. Rice's back-up, second-year RB Bernard Pierce, has been just as inefficient both on the ground (2.9 YPC) and through the air (four catches for seven yards). With the Packers' secondary struggling this season, WRs Torrey Smith and Marlon Brown will be the keys to this offense. Smith is having an incredible 2013 campaign with 556 yards on a 20.6 average, which both rank second in the NFL. He already has 223 yards after catch (3rd in NFL) and 8.3 YAC per reception (4th in league). Smith has also been helped by the emergence of the undrafted rookie Brown, who has caught touchdown passes in three of his four NFL games. Brown missed last week with a thigh injury, but is listed as probable for Sunday. Since being blown out in Denver in Week 1, the Ravens defense has been outstanding, holding its past four opponents to 15.3 PPG and 291.8 total YPG. This includes limiting Miami to 22 yards on 11 carries last week, which improved the run defense numbers to 89.8 rushing YPG allowed (6th in NFL) and 3.4 YPC (5th in league). The pass defense has also been strong since that loss to Peyton Manning and the Broncos, surrendering only 195.8 passing YPG on 5.8 YPA in the past four contests. Like Green Bay, Baltimore is also dealing with its share of injuries on defense with LB Arthur Brown (shoulder), NT Terrence Cody (knee) and DT Marcus Spears (knee) all questionable for this matchup.
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