The Bum's October NFL POD'S + Trends + Stats & News !

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Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six of the more intriguing games on this week’s NFL schedule:

-- Saints @ Patriots—Undefeated Saints visit Foxboro week after Brady’s 52-game streak with a TD pass came to an end.

-- Redskins @ Cowboys—Washington is off bye, Cowboys are off epic home loss to Denver.

-- Lions @ Browns—Weeden is back under center for Browns; will Megatron play for Lions?

-- Raiders @ Chiefs—KC is 5-0, but Raiders won last six visits to Arrowhead in this great rivalry.

-- Jaguars @ Broncos—Will this be biggest spread in NFL history? Jags looked little better with WR Blackmon back last week.

-- Colts @ Chargers—Indy HC Pagano faces his brother John, DC of San Diego, which got lit up by Terrelle Pryor Sunday night.


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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but...........

13) Teams that played in the first four Thursday night NFL games are 7-1 SU/ATS in their next game; only loss was when the Eagles got smoked 52-20 in Denver.

12) Houston Texans have been outscored 46-3 in second half of their last three games; in 77 NFL games this season, only twice has a team not had at least one play of 20+ yards—it was the Texans both times, in Weeks 3-5.

11) Minnesota Vikings signed Josh Freeman Sunday night, giving them a troika of mediocrity under center: Ponder-Cassel-Freeman. Cassel never even started a game in college (USC), but is probably the best of the three.

10) Tampa Bay replaced Freeman on its roster with Vandy grad Jordan Rodgers, Aaron’s younger brother. Fans are not rushing ticket windows because of this. Bucs haven’t announced yet who they’re going to replace HC Greg Schiano with next season, but odds are he’s getting the boot too, just like Freeman did.

9) Patriots lost in Cincinnati Sunday despite having a 10-yard edge in average starting field position. NFL teams with a 10+-yard advantage are 28-6 so far this season.

8) NFL meant well with all the pink stuff (breast cancer awareness) last week, but they’re wisely going back to yellow penalty flags this week; lot of times you couldn’t tell the penalty flags from players’ towels.

7) Jose Lobaton's walk-off homer into the rays' tank was the first time a Tampa Bay player has ever honered into the tank in right-center field.

6) Next year there will be 39 bowl games, which is ridiculous; 78 of the 128 I-A teams playing in a bowl. The new bowl game in the Bahamas could be interesting, but where does it stop?

5) Texas Tech QB Baker Mayfield has been playing great, but isn’t on scholarship; kid hurts his knee, can’t play. Can he get the same treatment a scholarship athlete gets? I don’t think walk-ons eat at the training table with scholarship players. If he’s done for the year (they don’t think he is) will they still give him a scholarship?

4) One of the TV analysts on a college game this week, think it was either Chris Spielman or Glen Mason, said “……95% of college football coaching is recruiting. All these guys know Xs and O’s.” Was stunned he used a figure as high as 95%- no way is that true in basketball.

3) 77 NFL games so far this season; the winning teams are a combined +80 in turnovers. Winning teams were +20 this past week.

2) Denver Broncos are 35-60 (58.3%) on third down conversions; they’ve been at 50%+ in all five games and scoring a ridiculous 46 ppg. Its been a long time since an offense was this good.

1) Carolina Panthers outscored foes 37-9 in first half this season; they haven’t allowed a first half TD in four games, and they’re still 1-3. Oy.

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NFL line watch: Jets' Monday upset moves money, spread

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (Opened +2.5)

The Steelers lost 34-27 to the Vikings in London two weeks ago and are 0-4. Clearly, the oddsmakers believe that Pittsburgh is going to win at least a couple games this season and with two whole weeks off to prepare for the hapless Jets, this seemed to have been the perfect matchup to get off the schneid.

Hold the phone. New York wasn't supposed to dominate the Falcons in Atlanta and escape with an improbable 30-28 outright victory as a 10-point underdog Monday night. But, that's exactly what happened.

Bettors have quickly jumped on New York and this line has already started to swing dramatically. As of Tuesday morning, I still see a +3 for the Jets on the board, but for the most part New York is now a 2.5-point favorite with a few 3s creeping up as well.

If you think that the home side can make the most of this situation and parlay its last performance into a tiny win skein, you'd better hurry up and get on it.


Spread to wait on

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Opened -10.5)

If you're a fan of the Kansas City Chiefs, I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to kickoff before getting down. This line opened at -10.5 but after the Raiders flattened the Chargers 27-17 as 6.5-point dogs last week, bettors were quick to jump on the double-digit spread. We're now seeing some 9s and even 8.5s hitting the board.

At 5-0, all eyes are on Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Kansas City fans have to like their chances to be a perfect 9-0 when their team enters its bye, with very winnable games versus the Raiders this week, vs. Houston, vs. Cleveland and at Buffalo.


Total to watch

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Opened 45.5)

Looking to hammer an over? You'd better move quick. This total opened at 45.5, but 46s have started to hit the board. After a sluggish start, the Eagles would finally hit their stride and dispatch of the Giants 36-21 last week - perhaps a big reason this total has already started to climb.

Or perhaps it's because the Bucs are 0-4, off their bye week and with a new pivot under center, sharps feel that they can finally put some points on the board versus this vanilla Philadelphia secondary, after totaling just 44 over their first four games.

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Football lines that make you go hmmm...

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 6 represents a reboot of the 2013 schedule.

The Bucs have already put Florida faithful through a season’s worth of drama, getting out to a sluggish 0-4 start (1-3 ATS), airing public infighting between star players and the coaching staff, and going through a painful breakup with their No. 1 QB, leaving the offense in the hands of a rookie.

After a bye in Week 5, Tampa Bay is ready for a fresh start. To quote Will Ferrell in The Other Guys, maybe the Bucs should be called the “Febreeze Brothers, because it’s feelin’ so fresh right now”.

But not even a Costco-sized tub of deodorizer could mask the rotten stench in Tampa. However, oddsmakers seem to think the Bucs could come off the bye smelling like roses. They’ve set the line at a pick for Week 6’s battle between Tampa Bay and the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles’ new up-tempo offense got back on track against the winless Giants in Week 5 and now takes on another 0-fer team in Tampa Bay. Philadelphia turned to Nick Foles at QB when Michael Vick went down last Sunday, and didn’t miss a beat. In fact, the Eagles become a much steadier team with Foles in the pocket instead of the risk/reward that Vick brings to the line of scrimmage.

At least Foles is a more reliable option with much better weapons than a rookie QB being thrown to the wolves.

NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (-1, 40.5)

Another winless team off a bye week getting love from books are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who visit the New York Jets Sunday afternoon.

The last time we saw the Steelers they were getting their knickers pulled down in front of a British audience, losing 34-27 to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4. Pittsburgh opened as a 3-point road favorite but after the Jets went into the ATL and stole a win from the Falcons Monday, the early money has moved New York to -1.

While the Jets seem ripe with letdown potential in Week 6, there is no let-up from their defense. Gang Green is second in total yards allowed and limiting opponents to just 76.2 rushing gains per game. They’re getting to the quarterback, with 16 sacks on the season, and forced a game-changing fumble from Matt Ryan Monday night.

The Steelers offense has been stuck in mud for the first chunk of schedule and, like always, is struggling to keep QB Ben Roethlisberger clean – giving up 15 sacks through four games. Pittsburgh is also dealing with injuries on the offensive line. Left guard Ramon Foster is question with a pectoral injury Sunday.


NCAAF

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans (-9.5)

This battle for perhaps the grossest prize in college football - Old Brass Spittoon - saw the spread climb as high as MSU -10 before money pushed it below the key numbers.

The Hoosiers are coming off a big win over Penn State and have an offense that can stack up the yards. The Spartans, on the other hand, do little with the football and a spread hovering on double figures seems like a lot of points for a team that can’t score.

Miami (Ohio) Redhawks at UMass Minutemen (-3, 43)

How low can you go on the total for a game between the two worst offensive teams in college football?

Miami (Ohio) ranked 124th in scoring, averaging just 8.8 points through its first five winless games, and is fresh off the firing of head coach Don Treadwell. The only team behind it in the offensive stats is UMass, which is mustering a mere touchdown per contest.

According to Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, the suggested total for this listless showdown is 43 points. The Redhawks and Minutemen have a combined 1-9 over/under record on the year.
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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Our NFL List of 13

32) Jaguars—Henne is a better QB than Gabbert, especially with explosive Blackmon back at WR; they’re 27.5-point underdogs at Denver this week, biggest spread since expansion Falcons played Johnny U’s Colts 47 years ago.

31) Bucs—No one likes the head coach, which wouldn’t matter except he fired the franchise QB and is now 1-8 in his last nine games overall- they haven’t scored in second half of their last two games. There is a new QB; soon there will be a new head coach.

30) Giants—Can’t remember an NFL team giving up 31+ points in each of its first five games; basic problem is that OL has fallen apart in front of a very good QB who is immobile, which screws things up. When Eli got protection, he moved ball and scored lot of points, which obscured other problems which seem glaring now.

29) Steelers—When you’re best week of the season is your bye week, you know its bad. Catch Jets on short week off Monday night upset win this week.

28) Vikings—Not sure what they’re trying to do bringing in Freeman, not sure they know what they’re trying to do. Had hard time deciding between them and Carolina for this spot- teams play this week, loser gets #28 next week.

8) Bengals—Held Brady without TD; rain or no rain, that’s a good deal. Still think letting rookie QBs watch for a year isn’t a terrible idea, but it seems like an obsolete idea. Long term, it could help, but we’ll never find out, except for guys who rise from obscurity to become starters.

7) 49ers—Bully team; they try to run it down your throat, but if they can’t, not sure Kaepernick is good enough to beat you throwing ball, especially with WRs woefully thin behind Boldin. Defense is banged-up, so they may have to win couple shootouts as season goes on.

6) Patriots—They had zero penalties at Cincinnati last week, in a game they never led; how does this happen? Their LBs/DBs will clutch/grab prolific Saint receivers all game Sunday; curious to see how many flags get thrown on them.

5) Colts—Wayne/Hilton are dynamic 1-2 punch at WR; they did great job seamlessly moving from Peyton era to Luck era. Jim Irsay is an underrated owner.

4) Chiefs—Have scored on defense/special teams in four of five games; Alex Smith manages game really well and that’s no insult, its how you win. This 5-0 team was 2-14 last year, but now rival Oakland comes to town, having won last six visits to Arrowhead. This should be fun.

3) Seahawks—Came close to sweeping Houston/Indy road trip; they’re totally dominant at home, figure to wind up with best record in NFC if they can beat Saints .

2) Saints—Speaking of which, big game this week has Who-Dats invading Boston. Again, we’re going to be watching Patriot defenders mugging TE Jimmy Graham to see how many flags they draw- it’s a key to this game.

1) Broncos- Converting 58.3% on third down, when they even get to third down. I am 53 years old; this might be the best offense I’ve ever seen, and I’m also a Ram fan, so very partial to Greatest Show on Turf, but these Broncos don’t turn ball over, which makes them better.

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Tech Trends - Week 6

October 9, 2013

Thursday, Oct. 10 - NFL, 8:20 p.m. EST

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

New York Giants at Chicago Bears G-Men 0-5 SU and vs. line in 2013, 1-7 vs. line last eight. Also 10-5 as road dog since 2011 (0-2 in role TY). Bears "over" 4-1 TY. "Over" and Bears, based on "totals" and team trends.




Sunday, Oct. 13 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge


Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Strong tech factors clash with KC's current 5-0 SU and vs. spread marks. Raiders have covered last 7 and 9 of last 10 at Arrowhead and are 11-7 last 18 as road dog since late 2010. Also five straight "unders" in series. Raiders and "under," based on series trends.


Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Birds now 4-17 vs. line since 2012 (2-3 for Chip Kelly TY), also "over" 9-2 last 11. Bucs 2-7-1 last 10 on board but "under" 8 in a row. Bucs 5-10 as home chalk since 2010 and 9-20-4 vs. points last 33 as host. Eagles and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens Pack no covers last four on road since late 2012 and also "over" all of those games. Pack "over" 5-1 last 6 since late LY as well. Slight to Ravens and "over," based on Packer trends.


Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns Brownies have won and covered last three TY. Lions 3-7-2 mark as road chalk since 2003 (1-1 TY). Detroit "over" 36-21-1 last 58 since late 2009. Browns and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings Panthers "over" 14-8-1 last 22 on road since mid 2010. Vikings "over" 12-4-1 last 17 at home. "Over," based on "totals" trends.


St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans Texans (0-5 vs. line overall, 0-2 at home!) had been 12-5 vs. line last 17 as host prior to TY, while Rams were 7-1 as road dog LY. Rams "over" 4-1 TY. Slight to "over," based on "totals" trends.


Pittsburgh Jets at New York Jets Steelers 0-4 SU and vs. line TY and 0-8 both if counting preseason, now 1-7 last 8 reg. season SU and vs. points, 1-11 both if counting preseason. Steel "over" 13-7 last 20 away from Heinz Field. Jets 4-1 vs. line TY. Slight to Jets and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills Home team 6-0-1 vs. line in last six Cincy games since late LY. Bengals also "under" 11-3 last 13 since mid 2012. Bills have covered last four as host. Slight to Bills and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.




Sunday, Oct. 13 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge


Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks Pete Carroll 4-1 SU and vs. line TY (8-1 both ways if counting preseason), 10-2 last 12 vs. line since late LY. Seahawks 10-0 SU, 9-1 vs. line as host since 2012. Also "over" 8-4 last 12 since mid 2012. Titans 4-1-1 vs. line last six since late LY. Seahawks, based on team trends.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos Epic big number. Jags 0-5 vs. line TY, Denver 4-1. Broncos have also covered last nine reg.-season games and 13 of last 15. Denver also "over" 42-18-1 since late 2009. Broncos and "over," based on team and "totals" trends .


Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers Cards 4-1 vs. line for Arians, though 49ers 14-5-1 vs. line at Candlestick for Harbaugh prior to last Sunday vs. Texans. Niners "over" 12-4 last 16 since mid 2012. "Over" and slight to 49ers, based on "totals" and team trends .


New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots Pats entered 2012 "over" 38-15-1 their last 54, then went "under" 4 of first 5 TY. Saints also "under" 4-1 first five in 2013. Sean Payton road mark not as overwhelming as home mark, just 6-11 vs. line last 17. "Over," based on extended "totals" trends.




Sunday, Oct. 13 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys Skins have covered last six in series and have covered six straight as series visitor. Dallas 3-0 vs. line as host TY but 5-17 as home chalk since 2010. Cowboys "over" 8-3 last 11 at home, Skins "over" 6-3-1 last 10 away. Redskins and "over," based on series and "totals" trends. .




Monday, Oct. 14 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers Colts 6-3 vs. line last nine away, also "under" 22-8-1 last 31 overall. Prior to Oakland last Sunday night, Bolts "over" 5-2 last 7 since late LY (3-2 TY) but only 6-11 vs. spread last 17 at Qualcomm. Colts, based on team trends.




Teams on Bye - Week 6

Atlanta Falconss Miami Dolphins

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Jaguars join Betting History

October 9, 2013

MILE-HIGH NUMBER IN DENVER

Much like the handful of vegetarians among the thousands who tune into the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest at Coney Island every 4th of July, just to see how many franks can actually be devoured by Joey Chestnut, even football fans who don't wager seem to be curious about the most-extreme of point-spreads. Such as this week's sky-high, er, mile high, number for Sunday's Jacksonville at Denver game. We've already fielded numerous calls and inquiries for information from a variety of interested parties, including some national media sources, all asking basically the same questions. Namely, how high will the Jags-Broncos number be posted? And will it be the biggest point-spread in NFL history?

Well, we'll see what transpires with the price as the week progresses, but it looks like the number on Jacksonville-Denver is going to be in the same ballpark as some of the biggest pro football spreads, at least as recorded in our point-spread archives that date to 1957, when the legendary Mort Olshan founded The Gold Sheet. Early betting in Las Vegas suggested as much, as a handful of sports books posted a preliminary number on Jaguars-Broncos even before last weekend's games. Initial pricing by Jay Kornegay at the LVH Super Book had Denver laying between 26 and 26 ½ with more than a week to go before kickoff at Sports Authority Field. Our TGS ratings had projected the Broncos to be 27-point favorites, which indeed puts Jacksonville-Denver in contention for biggest point-spread honors in NFL history (or, at least since 1957).

And we might not be finished with big numbers this season, although we don't project any future prices to be quite as high as Jags-Broncos. Yet if performance patterns don't change, there's a likelihood Jacksonville could be a 20+-point underdog again (best chances vs. the 49ers in London, and road dates at the Colts and Texans), while the Seahawks could also project into that sort of range as a favorite for a couple of late-season games at Century Link Field. But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.

Still, while the Jags-Broncos impost is not entering previously uncharted waters in pro football point-spread annals, it has been a while since we have seen an NFL price so high.

To put the magnitude of the Jacksonville-Denver number into some perspective, we'll use the rare 20-point line as a barometer. To illustrate how unique those heavy spreads are in pro football, since TGS began publishing in 1957, there have been 35 complete seasons without a line of 20 or more. Overall since 1957, there have been 67 NFL-AFL games (including the upcoming Jacksonville-Denver clash) with point-spreads of 20 or higher. Interestingly, well over half of those (37) were concentrated into five expansion-influenced seasons in the years of 1966-67-68 and 1976-77, when first or second-year teams in Atlanta, Miami, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, and Seattle accounted for the bulk (but not all) of those big numbers. (In case you're wondering, 1967 expansionite New Orleans, a fairly competitive outfit in its nascent era, wasn't a 20-point dog in either its first or second seasons.) Interestingly, those big 20+-point underdogs stand 34-30-2 vs. the number since 1957.

Of the few most-recent examples of 20+ spreads, all have involved Bill Belichick's Patriots. Including three games late in their undefeated regular season of 2007, when the oddsmakers had no choice but to inflate New England's numbers after the Patriots were routinely dismembering opposition. But even that powerhouse New England side was not able to overcome the sorts of premiums that oddsmakers eventually heaped upon it, as Belichick's team failed to cover any of those three 20+ spreads (vs. the Eagles, Jets, and Dolphins, all in various form of disarray that year). Since 2007, the only other 20+ number involved New England again, this time against a Peyton Manning-less Colts side in 2011. Much like the results of the games with over-adjusted prices in 2007, the Patriots also couldn't cover that one against Dan Orlovsky-led Indy. The Colts were still a winless 0-11 straight-up at kickoff for that early-December clash, but would score 21 unanswered points in the 4th Q to slip in the back door with plenty of room to spare in a 31-24 New England win...but a clear Colts cover.

Interestingly, those four spreads involving the Patriots are the only 20-point numbers since the 2001 season, when Mike Martz' Super Bowl-bound Rams laid 20 against George Seifert's woeful, 1-15-to-be Panthers, who were on the short end of a 48-14 beating.

Our research has unveiled various interesting tidbits about pro football point-spread history and the biggest numbers over the past six decades. In fact, we didn't even see a pro line of 20 or higher in our first three years of TGS publishing (1957-59). Not until Dallas entered the NFL as an expansion team in 1960 did we witness a pro spread crack the 20-point barrier. That year, Tom Landry's winless (but once tied) newcomers were a 22-point dog at Chicago and covered handily, losing just 17-7, but weren't as close when they got 20 points at Green Bay, losing 41-7 to Vince Lombardi's eventual Western Conference champs.

As mentioned previously, the bulk of the 20-point spreads have occurred in expansion periods, most notably in the late '60s and mid '70s. New, ragtag Atlanta and Miami franchises accounted for 7 of the 12 spreads of 20 or more in 1966, while the wretched 1-12-1 NY Giants of the same season, who would set a then-NFL record for most points allowed in a season (501, playing only a 14-game slate!), were twice underdogs of 20 or more. Though Allie Sherman's G-Men did cover on both occasions, including as a 26-point dog at Cleveland, a game in which New York actually blew a 33-14 lead. (Those were the same Giants on the losing end of the highest-scoring game in NFL history, when Otto Graham's Redskins dropped a72-41 bomb in then-called D.C. Stadium.) Ray Malavasi's lowly '66 AFL Denver team was also twice a 20-point or more dog.

In fact, expansion Atlanta holds the distinction of being the biggest underdog in NFL spread annals, getting a whopping 28 points (at home, no less) against Johnny Unitas and the Baltimore Colts in an early-November 1966 game. Those Falcons, still winless at 0-8 in their maiden voyage, had recently been on the wrong end of some frightful beatings, including as a 27-point dog in a 56-3 loss at Vince Lombardi's Packers. Meanwhile, the Colts were an acknowledged powerhouse of the era. But there was no point-spread drama in that '66 game; in fact, the plucky Falcons forged a 7-6 lead at halftime before succumbing honorably, 19-7, easily covering as the NFL's biggest-ever underdog.

There was no year, however, for big underdogs quite like 1968, when not only 11 of them received 20 points or more, but also two of those won outright; only two other 20+ dogs have won outright in the past 57 seasons! More incredibly, that pair of results came two weeks apart against the same team...none other than Joe Namath's eventual Super Bowl champion New York Jets!

Indeed, Namath was the key component in those hard-to-believe results, tossing five picks (three returned for TDs, by Tommy Janik, Butch Byrd, and Booker Edgerson) in a 37-35 late-September loss at Buffalo in what would be the Bills' only straight-up win of that season. Lightning would strike again twice two weeks later at Shea Stadium, when Namath tossed another five (!) picks as a 22-point underdog Denver side, playing minus star RB Floyd Little and top WR Al Denson, pulled a 21-13 shocker. Although the non-descript Broncos of that era were curiously tough on the Jets (beating them in 1967 and '69 as well), that Denver win as a 22-point dog still qualifies as the biggest pro football upset since we began to publish. Interestingly, a review of notes on the '68 Jets kept by TGS founder Mort Olshan found the words "Watch Namath Parties" next to the log entries of both the shocking Buffalo and Denver defeats.

All of which has prompted some curious observers to speculate about what might have been going on in 1968, especially considering some other irregularities and shock results that season (including the Jets-Colts Super Bowl), plus Namath's subsequent brief "retirement" related to his partial ownership of the Bachelors III nightclub. Topics, perhaps, for future discussions.

Following are the biggest pro football point-spreads since TGS began publishing in 1957:

1966-Baltimore (-28) 19, Atlanta 7
1966-Green Bay (-27) 56, Atlanta 3
1966-Oakland (-261/2) 31, Miami 17
1966-San Diego (-26) 44, Miami 10
1966-Cleveland (-26) 49, N.Y. Giants 40
1968-Oakland (-26) 13, Buffalo 10
1976-Pittsburgh (-26) 42, Tampa Bay 0

Following are the biggest pro football point-spread upsets since TGS began publishing in 1957:

1968-Denver (+22) 21, N.Y. Jets 13
1967-Minnesota (+20) 10, Green Bay 7
1968-Buffalo (+20) 37, N.Y. Jets 35
1974-San Diego (+20) 20, Cincinnati 17.

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NFL Week 6 opening line report: Will Broncos let up vs. Jags?

The mainstream media loves games like Jacksonville at Denver.

While most sports reporters shy away from the sinful spreads in their columns, this massive 28-point line has everyone talking about Week 6’s first-versus-worst matchup.

The spread has been up since last week, when the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas opened its lookahead lines. And Week 5’s results – Denver win in Dallas, Jacksonville loss in St. Louis – have done little to change the odds.

“I equate this spread to this past weekend’s Georgia State-Alabama spread (56.5),” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “If Denver gets up big in the first half, I don’t expect them to keep it up. There’s no incentive for it. They will pull their starters and get some rest. The line is deserved but if you’re a handicapper, you have to know that Denver won’t risk getting anyone injured.”

The Broncos also have an important conference game against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7 – Peyton Manning’s former team. We looked at the biggest NFL spreads of the past 28 seasons last week, and favorites of more than 20 points - -20.5 to -24 - are a 0-7 ATS since 1985.

According to Covers Expert Bruce Marshall, editor of the famous Gold Sheet, the Broncos-Jags spread ties the highest line in NFL history – the expansion Atlanta Falcons hosting the Baltimore Colts (-28) in 1966. The Falcons covered, losing 19-7 in Week 10.

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-9.5, 45.5)

Some books opened this spread as low as Chicago -7.5 but it seems like the betting market is finally starting to believe in the Giants’ 0-5 start.

“I don’t understand why they’re betting on New York. Up until Sunday, people were still hammering the Giants every week, thinking that they were due,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested line of Bears -10. “It was a mistake for any book to open this around a touchdown. Let the money take it down. The Giants have been big winners for books this season. And you never leave a hot machine at the casino.”


Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+3, 48)

The defending Super Bowl champs are 3-point home underdogs against the Packers in Week 6. Korner says this line could go up to as high as Green Bay -4 before kickoff, but isn’t sold on the Cheese Heads being that big.

“Baltimore showed some life this weekend and is coming back around,” he says. “Green Bay wasn’t really that impressive beating a Detroit team missing its best player (WR Calvin Johnson). People have short-term memories when it comes to betting, so it would be no surprise to see this move up to 3.5 or -4.”


New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1, 49.5)

Korner says he brought New Orleans as a slight road favorite to the table, but released a suggested spread of Patriots -2.5, hesitant to make New England a home underdog. But it wouldn’t surprise him to see the Saints close as the chalk.

“The Saints have that fearsome offense. And the Patriots do not,” Korner says. “If this line runs, it runs to New Orleans. It won’t go toward New England. There is nowhere to go but to New Orleans."

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

NY Giants at Chicago
The Giants look to bounce back from their 36-21 loss to Philadelphia last weekend and take advantage of a Chicago team that is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games. New York is the pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+9). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10

Game 101-102: NY Giants at Chicago (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 127.914; Chicago 133.290
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 5 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Chicago by 9; 47
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+9); Over


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 13

Game 203-204: Oakland at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 123.352; Kansas City 140.131
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 17; 37
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 8 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-8 1/2); Under

Game 205-206: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 129.809; Tampa Bay 126.931
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 42
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 1; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-1); Under

Game 207-208: Green Bay at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 136.653; Baltimore 140.600
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4; 52
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over

Game 209-210: Detroit at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 134.371; Cleveland 129.786
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2 1/2); Over

Game 211-212: Carolina at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.490; Minnesota 134.786
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-2 1/2); Under

Game 213-214: St. Louis at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 121.746; Houston 135.228
Dunkel Line: Houston by 13 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 7; 43
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-7); Over

Game 215-216: Pittsburgh at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 128.042; NY Jets 126.477
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+2 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Cincinnati at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 138.756; Buffalo 128.385
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 10 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 42
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Over

Game 219-220: Tennessee at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 128.411; Seattle 145.063
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 16 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Seattle by 13 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-13 1/2); Under

Game 221-222: Jacksonville at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 114.807; Denver 147.106
Dunkel Line: Denver by 22 1/2;
Vegas Line: Denver by 27 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+27 1/2); Over

Game 223-224: Arizona at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 125.582; San Francisco 140.096
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 14 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 11; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-11); Under

Game 225-226: New Orleans at New England (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 140.703; New England 139.551
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1; 45
Vegas Line: New England by 2 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+2 1/2); Under

Game 227-228: Washington at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 127.027; Dallas 137.718
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 10 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Dallas by 5 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5 1/2); Over


MONDAY, OCTOBER 14

Game 229-230: Indianapolis at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 139.088; San Diego 131.781
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 1; 50
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-1); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Thursday, October 10

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NY GIANTS (0 - 5) at CHICAGO (3 - 2) - 10/10/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 47-28 ATS (+16.2 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, October 13

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OAKLAND (2 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 0) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (2 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 4) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 152-116 ATS (+24.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (2 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 2) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (3 - 2) at CLEVELAND (3 - 2) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 3) at MINNESOTA (1 - 3) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 67-38 ATS (+25.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (2 - 3) at HOUSTON (2 - 3) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 130-166 ATS (-52.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 130-166 ATS (-52.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 63-93 ATS (-39.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 101-132 ATS (-44.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
HOUSTON is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (0 - 4) at NY JETS (3 - 2) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 56-33 ATS (+19.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (3 - 2) at BUFFALO (2 - 3) - 10/13/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (3 - 2) at SEATTLE (4 - 1) - 10/13/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 27-51 ATS (-29.1 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (0 - 5) at DENVER (5 - 0) - 10/13/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (3 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 2) - 10/13/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (5 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (4 - 1) - 10/13/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (1 - 3) at DALLAS (2 - 3) - 10/13/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DALLAS is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 13

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INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (2 - 3) - 10/14/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 21-3 ATS (+17.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games off a loss against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Thursday, October 10

8:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 8 of the NY Giants last 11 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Chicago is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home


Sunday, October 13

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games when playing Philadelphia
Tampa Bay is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. NY JETS
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the NY Jets last 13 games when playing Pittsburgh
NY Jets are 4-13 SU in their last 17 games when playing Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Buffalo is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Oakland's last 16 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games at home

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 4-15-1 SU in its last 20 games ,on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Carolina

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Cleveland's last 16 games at home

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
TENNESSEE vs. SEATTLE
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee

4:05 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New England is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
San Francisco is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
San Francisco is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Arizona

8:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Dallas is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Washington


Monday, October 14

8:40 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. SAN DIEGO
Indianapolis is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 6

Thursday, October 10

NY Giants at Chicago, 8:25 ET
NY Giants: 16-5 ATS in road games against NFC North division opponents
Chicago: 6-17 ATS in home games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game




NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Thursday's Game

Giants (0-5) @ Bears (3-2)—Winless Big Blue off to horrific start, with banged-up OL main reason behind -13 turnover ratio; in their three games outside awful NFC East (2-3 is first place), Giants were outscored 73-14 in second half, losing by 18-38-24 points- they allowed 31+ points in all five games (36.4 ppg/game). Throw in travel and short work week, this is tough spot for them. Chicago allowed 40-26 points in losing last two games after 3-0 start; Bears are 0-2-1 as home favorites this year (12-21-2 in last 35) with home wins this year by 1-3 points, plus loss to unbeaten Saints. Giants are 0-2 as road dogs this year after being 7-3 last two years; they’re averaging only 57 rushing yards/game, but have won four of last five visits to Windy City, but those were in happier times. NFC East teams are 4-9 vs spread outside the division, 2-5 on road, 2-4 as underdogs. NFC North teams are 3-5-1 outside the division. Four of five Chicago games went over the total.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, October 10

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Thursday Night Football betting: Giants at Bears
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-9.5, 47)

The wheels have completely come off for the New York Giants, who are off to a disastrous start and face a short turnaround when they visit the Chicago Bears on Thursday night. The Giants have dropped their first five games, the franchise's worst start in a non-strike season since 1979, and have shown little resistance while surrendering a league-worst 36.4 points per game. As bad as the Giants have been, they are only two games out of first place in the NFC East.

There is also plenty of concern in Chicago, which is coming off back-to-back losses following a 3-0 start to the season. A stout defense is normally a staple of the Bears, but they have been burned for an average of 28 points per game and have yet to hold an opponent under 21. Quarterback Jay Cutler threw for 358 yards in Sunday's 26-18 home loss to New Orleans, but Chicago's defense allowed Drew Brees and the Saints to control the ball for 36 minutes.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Chicago opened as a 9.5-point home favorite and has moved as low as -7.5. The total opened at 45 and jumped to 47.5.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+6.0) + Chicago (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chicago -10.5

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 60s with clear skies and winds blowing east at 7 mph.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (0-5, 0-5 ATS): While New York's defense has been abysmal, the running game is in shambles with second-year back David Wilson suffering a neck injury on Sunday and still dealing with tingling on Monday. That has forced Eli Manning to to carry a one-dimensional offense and the results have not been pretty - he's thrown a league-high 12 interceptions and been sacked 15 times. "He's certainly trying to do too much, he knows his team and he knows his responsibilities" Giants coach Tom Coughlin said. "He's an extremely accountable guy and he's going to do everything he possibly can."

ABOUT THE BEARS (3-2, 1-3-1 ATS): One of the few positives to come out of Sunday's loss was the immense performance of second-year wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey, who had 10 receptions for a franchise-record 218 yards. Of course, Jeffrey's monster day came at the expense of fellow wideout Brandon Marshall, who was limited to four catches for 30 yards and expressed his frustration after the game. "As a receiver, you always want the ball," Marshall said. "But, you know, coach (Marc) Trestman is an offensive guru. Jay's a good quarterback. We're going to do what's best for the team."

TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
* Bears are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 5-0 in Giants' last five Thursday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. New York has allowed at least 31 points in the first five games, matching a league record set by the Chicago Cardinals in 1954.

2. Bears RB Matt Forte has rushed for 375 yards and also had 27 receptions for 200 more.

3. The teams have not met since October 2010, when the Giants posted a 17-3 home win.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Preview - NY Giants (0-5) at Chicago (3-2)


(SportsNetwork.com) - Super Bowl dreams have turned into October nightmares for the winless New York Giants.

In fact the scariest thing this Halloween season has been the play of Eli Manning and his teammates.

A Giants team which actually placed a Super Bowl countdown clock in their own locker room and fancied themselves as a legitimate title contender is now at 0-5 a scant five weeks into the season as they prepare to take on the Chicago Bears on Thursday night.

Hindsight now says the Giants' dream of playing in another Big Game in their own backyard was nothing more than a fairytale, derailed by a perfect storm of injury and ineptitude that has engulfed "Big Blue" and head coach Tom Coughlin.

By the end of the Giants' latest collapse, an ugly 36-21 setback to lightly regarded NFC East division rival Philadelphia last Sunday at MetLife Stadium, even the North Jersey faithful recognized just how bad things had gotten, serenading its former heroes off the turf with a healthy chorus of boos.

"There are only two ways to finish out this season," said veteran defensive lineman Justin Tuck. "Figuring out some kind of way to right this ship and get some positive momentum going here. Or you can sulk and feel sorry for yourself and have the worst season ever in Giants history."

New York is 0-5 for the first time since the strike-shortened 1987 season after committing four turnovers that were converted into 17 Eagles' points. The Giants now have a league-high 20 giveaways through five games, including 12 Manning interceptions after the struggling quarterback was picked off three times in the fourth quarter against Philly.

"Offensively, we just have to take care of the ball better. It's as simple as that," said wide receiver Victor Cruz. "We make plays when we have the ball in our hands and we are pitching and catching, moving the ball up the field. When we turn the ball over, that's when things go awry."

The injury-riddled Giants also saw another key player go down against the Eagles when running back David Wilson exited in the first quarter with a neck injury. Wilson has already been ruled out for the Bears.

Manning did accumulate 334 yards against Philly despite completing just 24- of-52 attempts and he hit Rueben Randle for a pair of touchdowns in the second half. Hakeem Nicks racked up 142 yards on nine catches in the setback, while Randle put up 96 yards on six grabs.

The Bears, meanwhile, are also scuffling a bit, dropping two straight games after a 3-0 start.

The latest setback came in the Second City on Sunday when Garrett Hartley booted four field goals and Drew Brees threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns as the New Orleans Saints remained perfect with a 26-18 decision over Chicago.

Alshon Jeffery led the way with a franchise-record 218 yards and a touchdown on 10 catches for the Bears. Jay Cutler finished 24-of-33 for 358 yards and had another scoring pass to Brandon Marshall, while Matt Forte totaled 55 yards on 12 carries in defeat.

"Against a team like that, the way they played offensively and ate up the clock it's hard to rebound if you miss three or four plays in the game," Cutler admitted.

This will be the 49th regular season meeting between the Giants and Bears with Chicago holding a 27-19-2 advantage. The Giants have won two straight in the series, however, and their last four at Soldier Field.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

This is already the Giants' worst start in a non-strike-shortened season since 1979 when Joe Pisarcik kicked off that campaign at quarterback for Ray Perkins until the coach pulled the plug and went to rookie Phil Simms, a move that eventually jump-started the franchise and returned it to relevancy.

Barring a hiccup here and there, New York has remained competitive ever since, punctuated by its four Super Bowl championships after the 1986, 1990, 2007 and 2011 seasons.

Another Super Bowl berth is a non-starter now. Since the NFL changed to the current playoff format in 1990, no team has started 0-5 and made it to the postseason. So, perhaps the Giants' new goal should be avoiding the franchise- worst 0-9 start of the 1976 team.

"I'm always going to come out here fighting," safety Antrel Rolle said. "I don't care if we are 0-15. We just need to pick it up. We need to pick it up. Get our head out of our (behind) and pick it up. That's the reality of it. We are losing games around here and that's not Giants football we are playing."

"For us, we're not even thinking about the playoffs now," linebacker Spencer Paysinger added. "Right now we are 0-5 and looking for our first win, hopefully coming on Thursday."

Things have gotten so bleak that Coughlin, the two-time Super Bowl winning coach, finally pointed the finger of blame at his two-time big game quarterback Manning.

"I honestly believe that he's trying so hard to get us a win, he's almost put too much on himself," Coughlin said. "He keeps it all pretty much inside. I'm not making excuses. There were a couple of those plays that were terrible."

As mentioned Manning threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter versus the Eagles and he is now on pace to give it away 38 times, an almost laughably inefficient performance considering all the changes to the game in recent years that have favored the offense, particularly the passing game.

An NFL signal caller hasn't tossed 30-or-more interceptions in a season since 1988, when Vinny Testaverde had 35 for the Buccaneers. Again, though, that was an era when defenses were actually allowed to do some things without seeing yellow -- or last week, pink -- littering the field.

To be fair to Manning his offensive line has been awful for most of the season and the running game non-existent. The two-time Super Bowl MVP has completed just 53.7 percent of his passes and been sacked 15 times while New York averages an NFL-low 56.8 rushing yards per game.

"We're throwing the ball a lot and we're obviously low on running backs right now," Manning said. "I thought we left some plays out there, some balls down the field. I missed a couple -- a couple that were very close to being made. We just have to keep finding ways to make those plays. You don't get a whole lot of second chances in this league."

Even with the obvious deficiencies, second chances shouldn't be needed with weapons on the outside like Cruz, Nicks and the emerging Randle. In fact, it's hard to buy into the narrative that Manning is trying to lead the Little Sisters of the Poor.

"I know I can play better," Manning understated. "Sometimes, things are going to go wrong, but you've got to make the best decision. Throw it away, take a sack. I know I can't keep turning the ball over."

The football gods are more than a little ironic, however, and Manning's next test will be in Chicago after a short week of preparation against the NFL's most opportunistic defense.

The Bears "D" has 10 interception-return touchdowns since the start of the 2012 season -- the most in the NFL -- and has scored three defensive touchdowns so this season. Chicago failed to take it away against New Orleans for the first time in 11 games but is still third in the NFL with 14 takeaways.

"We have to stay positive," Manning said. "We have a short week and we play on Thursday night, so we've just got to keep working and I've got to start playing better football and making better throws, and putting our team in a better situation to win some games."

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Bears offense is hardly dynamic but Cutler is completing a career-best 65.7 percent of his passes so far this season and the Giants are allowing a league-worst 36.4 points per contest, surrendering at least 31 in all five games to match the NFL record set by the 1954 Chicago Cardinals

The Bears should get back on track here and the G-Men are likely to set a new ignominious mark.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Bears 31, Giants 23

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 6

Sunday, October 13

Oakland at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 3-13 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog
Kansas City: 11-2 UNDER in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 30-16 ATS in road games after a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Tampa Bay: 3-11 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Green Bay at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 55-35 OVER in games played on turf
Baltimore: 12-3 ATS in home games off a upset win as an underdog

Detroit at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 2-11 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Cleveland: 10-2 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points

Carolina at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 8-1 ATS off a road loss
Minnesota: 41-24 OVER after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game

St Louis at Houston, 1:00 ET
St Louis: 8-21 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Houston: 21-10 ATS in games played on a grass field

Pittsburgh at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 56-33 ATS (+19.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9
NY Jets: 1-8 ATS off 1 or more straight overs

Cincinnati at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 59-90 ATS in the first half of the season
Buffalo: 7-0 ATS off a road loss

Tennessee at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Tennessee: 8-1 OVER after playing a game at home
Seattle: 9-1 ATS in home lined games

Jacksonville at Denver, 4:05 ET
Jacksonville: 4-13 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Denver: 11-3 ATS in games played on a grass field

Arizona at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Arizona: 6-17 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games
San Francisco: 18-8 ATS in games played on a grass field

New Orleans at New England, 4:25 ET
New Orleans: 24-45 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
New England: 18-7 ATS after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points

Washington at Dallas, 8:30 ET
Washington: 62-41 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Dallas: 7-18 ATS against conference opponents


Monday, October 14

Indianapolis at San Diego, 8:40 ET
Indianapolis: 15-3 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games
San Diego: 10-23 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/07/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/06/13 10-*14-*0 41.67% -*2700 Detail
10/03/13 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail

Totals 12-*16-*0 42.86% -*2800

Thursday, October 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

N.Y. Giants - 8:25 PM ET Chicago -9.5 500 POD # 1

Chicago - Under 46.5 500 POD # 2