The Bum's October NFL POD'S + Trends + Stats & News !

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NFL

Monday, October 14

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NFL betting: Monday Night Football on over trend
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The 'over' has been a hot trend through the first five weeks of Monday Night Football.

After the first six games on Monday night through the opening five weeks of the regular season (Week 1 had a MNF double header), the over has posted a record of 5-1.

The only matchup not to soar over the total was the Week 2 meeting between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals won 20-10 with the total set at 40.

Granted, we've seen some of the most potent offenses in the league on Monday night to start the season. The Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints have all played on Monday night thus far.

Most recently, the New York Jets defeated the Atlanta Falcons 30-28 in Week 5's Monday Night Football tilt to finish over the total of 45.

Week 6 brings us the Indianapolis Colts (2-3 O/U) at San Diego Chargers (3-2 O/U). The total is currently 50.


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NFL

Monday, October 14

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NFL betting: Road teams 9-4 ATS in Week 6
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Away teams stepped up in Week 6 posting a record of 9-4 ATS heading into the Sunday night matchup between the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys.

In the first game of the week, the New York Giants fell to a record of 0-6, but managed to cover the spread as 9.5-point road dogs against the Chicago Bears.

That trend continued Sunday in the early set of games as road teams posted a stellar ATS record of 6-2.

The Redskins entered the final tilt of Sunday's action as 5.5-point road dogs in Dallas - where they are 6-0 ATS in their previous six meetings with the Cowboys.

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NFL

Monday, October 14

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Monday Night Football betting: Colts at Chargers
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Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers (+1, 50)

Andrew Luck has had his way with West Coast teams this season and he hopes to continue that trend when the Indianapolis Colts visit the San Diego Chargers on Monday night. The Colts have surged to the top of the AFC South on the heels of a three-game winning streak, which includes victories over NFC powers San Francisco and Seattle. Luck added to his growing reputation last week with his ninth comeback win in the fourth quarter or overtime in 21 career games.

San Diego changed head coaches in the offseason, but the inconsistency that has been a hallmark of the franchise for the past decade continues to permeate the team. One week after ripping off 20 unanswered points to knock off the Dallas Cowboys, the Chargers fell into an early 17-point hole in a turnover-riddled defeat at Oakland. "We've shown the good and we've shown the bad," Chargers coach Mike McCoy said. "We have to eliminate all the bad and get back to where we were at the Dallas game."

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: This opened as a pick and now sits Colts -1. The total opened 49.5 and is now 50.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with clear and sunny skies.

ABOUT THE COLTS (4-1): Indianapolis absorbed another blow when running back Ahmad Bradshaw was placed on injured reserve, making the acquisition of Trent Richardson from Cleveland that much more noteworthy. The Colts rank fourth in rushing at 142 yards per game, but Richardson has yet to make the expected impact with 151 yards on 51 carries in his three games with Indy. Luck's numbers are hardly off the charts - he averages under 230 yards per game - but he has an emerging target to go along with Reggie Wayne in second-year wideout T.Y. Hilton, who had a career-high 140 yards and two touchdowns last week.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (2-3): Philip Rivers has appeared to regain his mojo after a two consecutive turnover-laden campaigns, but his third 400-yard game of the season was negated by three interceptions in the loss to Oakland. An already-suspect running game absorbed another blow when oft-injured Ryan Mathews suffered a concussion last week, putting the onus on Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown to carry the ground attack. The Chargers have lost both starting receivers Danario Alexander and Malcom Floyd to season-ending injuries, but Vincent Brown and rookie Keenan Allen each went over 100 yards last week.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
* Colts are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Monday games.
* Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in October.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Wayne needs four catches to become the ninth receiver in league history with 1,000 receptions.

2. San Diego's Antonio Gates is second among tight ends with 438 yards receiving.

3. Colts coach Chuck Pagano will be facing his younger brother in Chargers defensive coordinator John Pagano.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, October 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indianapolis - 8:40 PM ET San Diego +1 500 POD # 1

San Diego - Under 50.5 500 POD # 2

[WThotrod]

BOL, Bum!

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Just love that POWDER BLUE !!

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NFL betting: Three cold teams to avoid in Week 7

Whether it's a spate of injuries, a stretch of inconsistency or a little bit of both, several teams face daunting tasks in Week 7 of the NFL season. Bettors should be wary of putting their faith in these clubs, at least while they remain cold.

Here are three teams to avoid in Week 7:

Buffalo Bills (2-4, at Miami)

The Bills dropped a 27-24 overtime decision to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday despite erasing a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit. Buffalo could be 5-1 at this point - having lost three of four games by fewer than seven points - yet could just as easily be 0-6 following a one-point win over Carolina and a three-point triumph over Baltimore. Adding journeyman Matt Flynn to the quarterback mess isn't going to help a team that ranks 28th in average passing yards per game, squandering what has been a robust rush attack (148.8 ypg).


Houston Texans (2-4, at Kansas City)

Things have gone from very bad to much, much worse for the Texans, who were manhandled from start to finish in a one-sided loss to the St. Louis Rams. Despite strong showings from pre-injury Matt Schaub and a rejuvenated Arian Foster, Houston had all sorts of problems containing all facets of the St. Louis offense. The Texans also surrendered an interception-return touchdown for the fifth straight week, which certainly didn't help matters - nor will a Week 7 matchup with a Chiefs team that has yet to lose while boasting a plus-87 point differential.


New York Jets (3-3, vs. New England)

The Geno Smith honeymoon may be over after the rookie quarterback struggled throughout Sunday's 19-6 loss to the previously winless Pittsburgh Steelers. Smith finished with just 201 passing yards while throwing a pair of interceptions in the Jets' second terrible showing in a three-week span. The defense will keep this team in most games, but the Smith-led offense has managed just 29 points in its three losses - and will be in tough next Sunday against a Patriots team that has allowed just six passing touchdowns through six games.

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NFL line watch: Hold off on betting Big D at Philadelphia

Spread to bet now

San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (+4.5)

This line opened at 5. There are still some 4.5s out there, but a few 4s are creeping onto the board now as well. Don't wait to jump on this one if you're planning on backing the home side this week.

When the Titans take the field Sunday, they'll be looking to improve upon their 2-1 home record. Tennessee's defense surrendered just 30 combined points in the two home victories. The Jags are a writeoff and the Texans are plummeting. With a date vs. the Broncos next week, the Colts are likely going to be sitting at 4-3 on Monday morning. If that scenario occurs, an outright victory Sunday would move the Titans into a tie for the AFC South lead.

The 49ers have bounced back after a dismal start, but there's no question their Achilles’ heel has been their play on the road this year, where they’re just 1-1. Tennessee has a similar smashmouth style of defense that the Seattle Seahawks do, a team which held San Francisco to just three points in Week 2. The Titans were in the Pacific Northwest last week and took those same Seahawks down to the wire in the eventual 20-13 setback.

With the sharps and the public jumping on the underrated home side, don't wait any longer if you plan on backing the Titans this weekend.


Spread to wait on

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Cowboys backers should wait closer to kickoff before getting down on this one. This line would open as a pick but the home side has seen considerable action already. The Eagles now sit as 2.5-point favorites across the board, with a couple of 3's starting to make an appearance as well.

The Cowboys have shown marked improvement over the last two weeks, taking the Broncos down to the wire and having their way in a 31-16 victory over Washington last week. Dallas, though, is 0-2 on the road this year, losing 17-16 at Kansas City and 30-21 at San Diego, and has a ton of injuries on defense along with RB DeMarco Murray.

The Cowboys and Eagles are now tied atop the NFC East, making this week's contest crucial. Both the sharps and the public know that division games are always the most important and almost always it's more important for the home side.


Total to watch

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (56)

This line is already dropping. Sunday night games have paid big dividends for Over bettors this season, but both teams are coming off offensive duds.

While the Broncos pulled away with a convincing 35-19 victory over the lowly Jaguars last week, they were unable to cover the sky-high 28-point spread and were up just two points (14-12) at half-time.

Indianapolis came into its Monday night game in San Diego with a lot of momentum but got caught looking ahead and laid an egg in a 19-9 setback.

There will be many storylines to consider in this matchup, but it's clear that both the sharps and the public are thinking that Peyton Manning's return to the stadium that he helped build will be more of a defensive battle once the smoke settles.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Six of the more intriguing NFL games this week:

-- Seattle (-6) @ Arizona-- Seahawks won last meeting 58-0, but lost six of last seven visits to the desert. .

-- Chargers (-7.5) @ Jaguars-- Major trap game for San Diego.

-- Bengals @ Lions (-2.5)-- Sleeper Super Bowl preview?

-- Cowboys @ Eagles (-2.5)-- Finally, one of QBs on my fantasy team gets a shot at the Dallas defense.

-- Ravens @ Steelers (-1.5)-- Not sure what to make of either team.

-- Broncos (-6.5) @ Colts-- I am told Denver's QB used to play for Indy; anybody know anything about this?


*****

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.......

13) In three of Justin Verlander's last four starts, Detroit lost 1-0. Not what you expect from a Tiger team with that good a lineup.

12) New England has averaged 5.2 or less yards/pass attempt every game but one this season; LY, they were under 5.6 ypa once all season.

11) Apparently Mike Tomlin, or someone higher than Tomlin in the Steelers’ hierarchy, wasn’t thrilled with Emmanuel Sanders’ somersault into the end zone Sunday. Hey at least he got in the end zone. With the ball.

10) Tuesday night’s UL-Lafayette-Western Kentucky football game shows you how desperate some of these smaller schools are for TV exposure. Seriously, they’d play at 3am if ESPN asked; just look at the college hoop tipoff in November, when teams play games at 6am and 8am local time in order to get on national TV.

9) In case there was a human left on this planet who doubted that football is more popular than baseball, Sunday night’s Redskin-Cowboy game drew 13.8M more viewers than Game 2 of the ALCS.

8) Seahawks play at Arizona this week, in St Louis next week, which will end a stretch of four road games in five weeks, with all four of the road games in domed stadiums.

7) 6-9 Wanaah Bail became eligible for UCLA, a good addition for Steve Alford's frontcourt- he gives them some depth off the bench.

6) Chargers are 1-7-1 vs spread in game following their last nine wins.

5) Jets signed former college QB Josh Cribbs, who used to be a damn good kick returner for the Browns; wonder if they’ll use him in some Wildcat packages or just as a returner?

4) Brandon Jennings will miss the first week of the NBA season because of a hairline fracture of his jaw and an impacted wisdom tooth; neither of those sounds like much fun. He’ll probably lose weight during all that too, so it’ll take a while for him to get back to maximum strength.

3) If I own the Dodgers, a team with the highest payroll in baseball history, I want the team managed by a better manager than Don Mattingly.

2) There are 14 unbeaten teams left in major college football; we’ll be ranking them in this space tomorrow.

1) I’m thinking that our election ballots should have incumbents marked on them, so we know who to vote against next month. This shutdown stuff is annoying enough that I might actually research it in the newspapers and bring a cheat sheet into the voting booth so I know who not to vote for.

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Seahawks seek 6-1 start Thursday in Arizona

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (5-1)
at ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-3)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: Seattle -6.5, Total: 40

The Cardinals try to stay perfect at home when they host a one-loss Seahawks team on Thursday night.

Seattle had mixed results in its four straight games versus AFC South teams (winning big over the Jaguars, squeaking by the Texans, losing to the Colts and failing to cover in a tight win over the Titans) but has allowed only 5.0 PPG and 225 total YPG to NFC opponents this year (Panthers and 49ers). Arizona, which could be missing star WR Larry Fitzgerald (hamstring), gained a season-high 403 total yards in San Francisco last week, but was done in by four turnovers in a 32-20 loss. Although the Seahawks won a 58-0 laugher in the last meeting on Dec. 9 due mostly to eight Cardinals turnovers, Seattle is just 1-6 (SU and ATS) in its past seven trips to Arizona. Both teams have several positive betting trends working in their favor. The Seahawks are 13-1 ATS (93%) after gaining 6+ yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons, while the Cardinals are just 3-11 ATS (21%) in October over the past four seasons. But Arizona is a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games under Bruce Arians and 26-9 ATS (74%) when facing a top-level team (75% win pct. or better) since 1992. Both clubs are relatively healthy, but each team will likely be without a star defensive end, with both Seattle DE Chris Clemons (elbow) and Arizona DE Calais Campbell (neck) listed as questionable.

Seattle continues to steamroll opponents on the ground, averaging 158 rushing YPG (2nd in NFL) with more than 150 rushing yards in each of the past five games. Most of this damage has been done by Marshawn Lynch, who has 57 percent of his team's carries for 487 yards (4.2 YPC) and five touchdowns. Lynch has run all over the Cardinals in the past three meetings, gaining 316 yards on 5.9 YPC with three touchdowns. QB Russell Wilson is the only other Seattle player with more than 20 carries this season, scrambling for 294 yards on 5.9 YPC, but he does have to take better care of the football with five fumbles this season, three of which were lost. The Seahawks are efficient when they throw (7.8 YPA, 6th in NFL), but they have the third-fewest pass attempts in the NFL (166). Wilson has taken multiple sacks in every game this season, hitting the turf 2.8 times per game compared to 2.1 last year, but still has twice as many touchdowns (eight) as interceptions (four). Wilson is hoping that top WR Percy Harvin (hip) will return from his injury soon now that he's eligible to play, but until that happens Wilson will continue to spread the ball evenly to his top three wideouts. WR Golden Tate leads the team in catches (23), WR Doug Baldwin has the most receiving yards (344) and WR Sidney Rice is tied for the team lead with two touchdown catches. The tight ends haven't been a big factor, but starting TE Zach Miller (hamstring) is expected to return after a two-game absence. The Seattle defense has been strong this year, ranking second in the NFL in total defense (290 total YPG), second in passing defense (188 YPG), third in scoring defense (15.7 PPG), fifth in yards per play (4.7) and fifth in red zone efficiency (38.5%). The defense has been average in both stopping the run (3.9 YPC, 15th in league) and getting off the field on third downs though (37.2%, T-15th in NFL). The Seahawks have forced at least two turnovers in all six games, totaling 17 takeaways on the season (T-2nd in NFL). Miscues have been a key in this series as the Cardinals have 2+ turnovers in each of the past six meetings, totaling 21 giveaways.

Arizona's offense has been subpar this year with 322 total YPG (26th in NFL) and 18.5 PPG (25th in league), and will remain that way if top WR Larry Fitzgerald's hamstring injury forces him to be ineffective. He has produced some big games in this series with four 100-yard efforts in the past 10 meetings where he has totaled 853 yards and 5 TD. However, Fitzgerald was held to just one catch in the 58-0 drubbing last December. QB Carson Palmer is in the midst of a terrible first season in Arizona with a 69.3 passer rating (5th-worst among all qualified QBs), throwing for only seven touchdowns and 11 interceptions (2nd-most in NFL). He has gotten better protection in the past three games though with just four sacks, a big drop from the nine sacks he absorbed in the first three contests. Palmer has not been helped by a poor ground game averaging only 86 YPG (24th in NFL) on 3.8 YPC (20th in league). Leading rusher RB Rashad Mendenhall has managed just 3.3 YPC on his 79 attempts, but the emergence of rookie RB Andre Ellington (7.0 YPC on 25 attempts) has sparked some hope for the rushing offense. Ellington has increased his yards per carry in each of his six games, cranking out 56 yards on just seven carries last week. Defensively, the Cardinals have been solid all season, allowing only 5.2 yards per play (12th in NFL), including 3.5 yards per carry (4th in league). They rank among the top-10 NFL teams in both red zone efficiency (44.4%) and goal-to-go efficiency (57%). These factors have kept the points allowed to a minimum (21.2 PPG, 12th in NFL) despite being on the field for 32:02, which is the seventh longest for any NFL defense. Arizona's D has also been more opportunistic recently with nine takeaways over the past three weeks.

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Super Situations

NFL | DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA
Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )


NFL | CHICAGO at WASHINGTON
Play On - Any team vs the money line (CHICAGO) in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games
34-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.6% | 0.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )


NFL | ST LOUIS at CAROLINA
Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (CAROLINA) good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game), after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )

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Philadelphia, PA (SportsNetwork.com) - "The Butterfly Effect" is far more than a science fiction thriller starring Ashton Kutcher.

In real life, it's a term used in chaos theory to illustrate how small initial differences may lead to larger unforeseen consequences over time.

The name of the effect was coined by Edward Lorenz and refers back to a theoretical example of a hurricane's formation being wholly contingent on whether or a butterfly had flapped its wings weeks earlier.

While that's obviously a stretch and Hollywood has by and large turned the butterfly effect into a hackneyed cliche involving time travel, it's actual implications are taken for granted by millions every day.

It could be as simple as taking a different route to work the day there was a massive traffic jam on the freeway or as life-altering as the now legendary stories of the lucky few who missed their doomed flights on Sept. 11, 2001.

The butterfly effect even exists in football, evidenced by Baltimore Ravens rookie safety Matt Elam, who took out Aaron Rodgers' most dynamic receiver, Randall Cobb, last Sunday with a text-book hit under 2013 football rules, one with which Rodgers took exception.

The helmet to the leg knocked Cobb out of the game with what is being reported as a broken right fibula, an injury that will sideline him for "multiple weeks," according to Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy.

Multiple weeks turned out to be at least eight when the Pack placed Cobb on injured reserve with a designation to return on Tuesday. The third-year standout will not be eligible to play until the Packers' Week 15 matchup at Dallas on Dec. 15, and even that sounds like a stretch.

The injury could be a significant blow to Green Bay, which improved to 3-2 with Sunday's defeat of the Ravens. Cobb is leading the team with 29 receptions for 378 yards with two touchdowns and also serves as the Packers' primary punt returner.

Rodgers confronted Elam on the field and explained his thought process afterward:

"I think he could have hit him in the proper hitting zone and that's what I told him," the All-Pro said.

To an offensive player these days, "the proper hitting zone" is akin to the strike zone in Major League's Baseball's steroid era, basically the 12-inch- or-so area from your waist to your thighs.

Baltimore coach John Harbaugh responded by taking exception with Rodgers' ridiculous take on Elam's legal hit.

"To say that it could have been more artistically palatable is pretty hard for me to understand," Harbaugh said Monday. "That's a fast route. They ran a pretty good route there. Aaron made a good, quick throw in there and Matt is doing the best he can to try to stop that play. So I have no idea what (Rodgers is) talking about."

Rodgers was talking about the butterfly effect that has made taking out the knees -- formally a no-no via unwritten rule in football etiquette -- not only acceptable but almost necessary.

Keeping defenseless receivers safe has been a point of emphasis for years, one that has made hits to the head a non-starter and virtually eliminated by decree of a 15-yard penalty along with a substantial fine.

On paper, it was a prudent idea with everything we now understand about concussions, but now all the big hitters searching for the knockout blow have been replaced by heat-seeking missiles like Elam aimed directly at the lower extremities.

"The other safety (James Ihedigbo) came over and actually made a very knowledgeable point, which I appreciated a little intelligent answer back and forth about some of the issues defensive players have to deal with (trying to hit) the target area," Rodgers said. "I totally understand that and get that."

If Rodgers really gets it, he understands Elam shouldn't have been penalized, isn't going be fined and he is down a receiver because of that precious "proper hitting zone" as it's now defined by the NFL.

Newton's laws of motion are clear: For every action there is always an equal and opposite reaction.

Matt Elam's hit was the reaction to an untenable policy here and the only thing to blame for Cobb's injury is good intentions gone bad.

NFL POWER POLL

The Sports Network's updated NFL Power Poll, which ranks all 32 league teams, can be found here: NFL POWER POLL.

THE GAMES - (All Times Eastern) - WEEK 7

Seattle (5-1) at Arizona (3-3), Thursday, 8:25 p.m.

LINE: Seahawks by 6 1/2

THE SKINNY: If the Cardinals plan to get involved in the NFC West race, it's imperative they hold serve at home when the division-leading Seattle Seahawks arrive for "Thursday Night Football." The rough and tumble West could very well be the NFL's toughest division and is currently the league's only one in which all four teams are at or above .500.

This game features two of the NFL's premier cornerbacks in Arizona's Patrick Peterson and Seattle's Richard Sherman. Both ball hawks are in their third NFL season and Peterson's 10 interceptions since 2012 are third in the NFL behind Sherman (11) and Chicago's Tim Jennings (12).

Seattle has been mortal away from the Pacific Northwest this season, rallying late to beat Carolina and Houston before stumbling in Indianapolis. Meanwhile, Arizona has the kind of defense that could make things difficult for the Seahawks' running game and has the revenge factor after the ugly 58-0 setback in the Pacific Northwest last season.

The Cardinals come in here as the far more desperate team and have a history of handling Seattle in the desert, so that makes Arizona the prudent pick here ... if Carson Palmer can play a somewhat clean game. And that's a big "if."

PREDICTION: Cardinals 23, Seahawks 20

Tampa Bay (0-5) at Atlanta (1-4), Sunday, 1 p.m.

LINE: Falcons by 7

THE SKINNY: Call the Falcons a Super Bowl contender gone awry thanks to injuries and ineptitude. The latest of example of Murphy's Law striking Dixie was the season-ending broken foot of All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones.

As bad as things are in Atlanta, though, they are even worse in Tampa, where things like MRSA and the Josh Freeman debacle have turned embattled head coach Greg Schiano into a dead man walking.

PREDICTION: Falcons 20, Buccaneers 10

St. Louis (3-3) at Carolina (2-3), Sunday, 1 p.m.

LINE: Panthers by 6

THE SKINNY: The Rams have rebounded to win two in a row, including last week's 38-13 rout at Houston in which St. Louis scored in all three phases, offense, defense and special teams.

"I think everyone totally bought in," said Rams quarterback Sam Bradford, who recorded a career-best 134.6 passer rating. "If you look at the way we've played the past two weeks, it's been a completely different mind-set and attitude."

Carolina had that same mind-set and attitude in Minneapolis a week ago as Cam Newton accounted for four touchdowns -- three passing, one rushing -- in the Panthers' 35-10 drubbing of the Vikings. The former Rookie of the Year joined former Viking Daunte Culpepper as the only quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era to record three games with at least three passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown during their first three NFL seasons.

"This is a team that understands the importance of where we are right now and where we can go," said Carolina wide receiver Steve Smith. "It's a team that seems to be waking up."

PREDICTION: Panthers 20, Rams 17

Cincinnati (4-2) at Detroit (4-2), Sunday, 1 p.m.

LINE: Lions by 3

THE SKINNY: Doppelgangers at the top of the AFC and NFC North meet in the Motor City as the 4-2 Bengals visit the 4-2 Lions. Cincinnati is alone atop its division after last week's hard-fought 27-24 overtime win at Buffalo. Quarterback Andy Dalton passed for 337 yards and three touchdowns in that one while kicker Mike Nugent booted the game-winning 43-yard field goal with 6:44 remaining in the extra period.

"We've done some good things," said Dalton of the team's recent play on offense. "It's nice for us to come out and score, move the ball well and do some good things, so we have to keep getting better and keep improving. That is what we are going to do."

Detroit, which has company atop the NFC North in Chicago, will be seeking to knock off its second straight AFC North foe after the team's Week 6 win at Cleveland. Matthew Stafford tossed four touchdown passes, including three to undrafted rookie tight end Joseph Fauria, who became the first tight end in franchise history with three TD receptions in a game. Defensively, linebacker DeAndre Levy had two interceptions and is now tied for the NFL lead with four this season.

PREDICTION: Bengals 21, Lions 20

San Diego (3-3) at Jacksonville (0-6), Sunday, 1 p.m.

LINE: Chargers by 7 1/2

THE SKINNY: It's been the Philip Rivers show for San Diego this season. The veteran QB has been spectacular, recording an NFL-high three 400-yard passing games and a 108.7 passer rating, second in all of football behind Peyton Manning. Rivers has done all that despite being without Danario Alexander (ACL) for the entire season and Malcom Floyd (neck) since Week 2. Rookie Keenan Allen is quickly turning into Rivers' top receiving threat and will be aiming for his third straight game with 100-plus receiving yards and a TD.

The hapless Jags were far more competitive than most thought against high-powered Denver a week ago thanks in large part to Chad Henne, who registered his 10th career 300-yard passing effort, and star receiver Justin Blackmon, who leads the NFL with 19 catches for 326 yards since returning from suspension in Week 5.

PREDICTION: Chargers 27, Jaguars 17

Buffalo (2-4) at Miami (3-2), Sunday, 1 p.m.

LINE: Dolphins by 8 1/2

THE SKINNY: The Bills signed QB Matt Flynn earlier this week, but coach Doug Marrone still expects Thad Lewis to be able to play Sunday after the Duke product sprained his foot in his second career start, an overtime loss to Cincinnati this past Sunday. Lewis, of course, is only playing because rookie starter E.J. Manuel is out with a knee sprain and his original backup. fellow freshman Jeff Tuel, was miserable in his first turn at the wheel. Lewis completed 19-of-32 passes for 216 yards with three TDs (two pass, one rush) against the Bengals.

He will greet a Miami team coming off its bye week and trying to halt a two- game skid. Since 1990, the Dolphins are 14-10 after a bye and second-year QB Ryan Tannehill tends to play better at home, completing 80-of-128 passes for 893 yards with seven TDs versus one interception and a 98.2 passer rating in his last four starts in the Sunshine State.

PREDICTION: Dolphins 27, Bills 17

New England (5-1) at New York Jets (3-3), Sunday, 1 p.m.

LINE: Patriots by 4

THE SKINNY: Injuries continue to pile up for New England as it shoots for its seventh consecutive win over the Jets and its 13th straight against AFC East foes. Patriots linebacker Jerod Mayo was placed on injured reserve Wednesday after reportedly undergoing surgery for a torn pectoral muscle. Mayo was hurt during the fourth quarter of this past Sunday's game against New Orleans. The two-time Pro Bowl selection leads the Patriots with 55 tackles this season.

It's another significant loss for the New England defense, as star defensive tackle Vince Wilfork went on IR earlier this month because of a torn Achilles' tendon.

Last weekend, Bill Belichick surpassed Hall of Fame coach Chuck Noll on the all-time list with his 210th victory, good for fifth in NFL lore. This weekend, it's Tom Brady's turn to make history. Brady, who beat the Saints with a late- game TD pass to rookie Kenbrell Thompkins, needs one more scoring pass to lap Fran Tarkenton (342) for forth-most in NFL history. Brady is 18-4 all-time against the Jets.

New York rookie Geno Smith is 2-1 as a starter at home and has been especially effective in the fourth quarter over the past month, completing 26-of-37 passes for 317 yards with three TDs and a 112.1 passer rating in the game's most important frame over that span.

PREDICTION: Patriots 23, Jets 20

Dallas (3-3) at Philadelphia (3-3), Sunday, 1 p.m.

LINE: Eagles by 3

THE SKINNY: First place in the NFC East will be on the line when the Eagles host the banged-up Cowboys, who will be without starting running back DeMarco Murray and star pass rusher DeMarcus Ware.

Dwayne Harris sparked Dallas last weekend with a 90-yard kickoff return and an 86-yard punt-return touchdown in the team's 31-16 win over Washington. The Cowboys lead the NFC with 183 points scored and Tony Romo's 108.6 passer rating is the highest mark in the NFC.

"The division games are big," Romo said. "We have a big one with Philadelphia. It's a tough place to play. They're playing tough football, so it'll be a good test for us. We'll be ready."

Philadelphia, meanwhile, has won two in a row after last weekend's 31-20 victory at Tampa Bay and will be going with second-year man Nick Foles at QB for the second consecutive week as Michael Vick continues to recover from a strained hamstring.

Running back LeSean McCoy leads the NFL with 630 rushing yards and 871 scrimmage yards and is the fulcrum of an offense which is the only one since the 1970 merger to gain at least 1,600 net passing yards (1,628) and 1,050 rushing yards (1,071) through the first six games of a season.

"I've seen improvement from where we started to where we are right now," said Philadelphia head coach Chip Kelly.

PREDICTION: Eagles 34, Cowboys 30

Chicago (4-2) at Washington (1-4), Sunday, 1 p.m.

LINE: Redskins by 1

THE SKINNY: Chicago and its opportunistic defense will try to stop a four-game losing streak to the Redskins, who are off to a dismal 1-4 start after winning the NFC East a season ago. The Bears "D" has not allowed a fourth-quarter TD this season, and since 2012 has 11 interception returns for TDs, most in the NFL. Cornerback Tim Jennings had two picks in a win over the New York Giants in Week 6 and leads the NFL with 12 since 2012.

Washington continues to struggle as Robert Griffin III feels his way back from the torn ACL he suffered in last season's playoffs. RG3's numbers have been fine but it's clear he has lacked some of the explosion and elusiveness that defined his game pre-injury.

PREDICTION: Bears 21, Redskins 16

San Francisco (4-2) at Tennessee (3-3), Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

LINE: 49ers by 4

THE SKINNY: The Titans have lost two straight behind veteran backup Ryan Fitzpatrick as Jake Locker continues to recover from hip and knee injuries he suffered on Sept. 29. Fitzpatrick is expected to make his third start on Sunday against the 49ers, although Locker has been cleared for football activities. The target for Locker's return remains the Nov. 3 game against the St. Louis Rams after the team's bye week.

The Niners, on the other hand, have won three straight and are looking stronger and stronger as they get healthier. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is the barometer for their success and is now 11-5 as the team's starter (including playoffs) with 94.1 rating and 674 rushing yards. When Kaepernick starts and has a 100-plus passer rating, the 49ers are 7-0.

PREDICTION: 49ers 29, Titans 17

Cleveland (3-3) at Green Bay (3-2), Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

LINE: Packers by 10

THE SKINNY: Aaron Rodgers is running out of healthy receivers, but it won't matter much this weekend with Brandon Weeden and Cleveland coming to Titletown. A-Rod completed 15-of-20 passes for 246 yards with three TDs and a 155.4 passer rating in his only start against the Browns and has won 21 of his past 22 starts at home.

Cleveland hangs its hat on big-play WR Josh Gordon, who has 25 receptions for 429 yards and two TDs since returning from a suspension, along with Jordan Cameron, who leads all NFL tight ends with 38 receptions.

PREDICTION: Packers 31, Browns 16

Baltimore (3-3) at Pittsburgh (1-4), Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

LINE: Steelers by 1

THE SKINNY: Football's version of the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry renews in the Steel City with a little less luster. The reigning Super Bowl champion Ravens are a pedestrian 3-3, while the Steelers finally earned their first win last weekend against the Jets. Baltimore has won 13 of its last 15 against AFC North foes and will be searching for its fourth straight win in Pittsburgh.

The Steelers will continue to rely on star QB Ben Roethlisberger, who is an impressive 88-43 in his career as a starter and 9-5 versus the Ravens. "Big Ben" also needs just three TD passes to join Hall of Famer Terry Bradshaw (212) as the only Steelers' signal callers with 200 TD throws.

PREDICTION: Steelers 17, Ravens 16

Houston (2-4) at Kansas City (6-0), Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

LINE: Chiefs by 6 1/2

THE SKINNY: The Texans will be trying to halt an ugly four-game losing streak with a quarterback situation in flux. Matt Schaub is injured and has been ineffective, giving embattled head coach Gary Kubiak a decision to make. If Schaub can't go because of his balky ankle, then Kubiak could turn to either T.J. Yates, who played poorly after relieving Schaub in an embarrassing home loss to St. Louis last weekend, or Case Keenum, a popular Texas native who starred in college at the University of Houston.

Kansas City will be a tough task for any of them. The Chiefs are the first team in NFL history to start 6-0 after losing 14-plus games in the previous season and will be shooting for their first 7-0 start since 2003 (9-0). The K.C. defense is coming off a 10-sack performance against Oakland and has helped the team compile an NFL-best plus-12 turnover ratio. QB Alex Smith, meanwhile, is 25-5-1 as a starter in his last 31 games.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 23, Texans 14

Denver (6-0) at Indianapolis (4-2), Sunday, 8:30 p.m.

LINE: Broncos by 6 1/2

THE SKINNY: Peyton Manning returns to Indianapolis in search of his 17th straight regular-season win as the Broncos' starting QB. Manning posted a 141-67 regular-season record for Indianapolis, passing for 54,828 yards, 399 touchdowns and a 94.9 passer rating as he guided the Colts to the playoffs 11 times, including a victory in Super Bowl XLI. He hasn't slowed down in the Rockies and leads the NFL with 2,179 passing yards, 22 touchdowns -- the most ever through the first six games of a season -- and a 128.8 passer rating this year.

Denver improved to 6-0 last Sunday with a 35-19 win over Jacksonville and has scored 265 points, the most ever by a team through the first six games of a season. Manning passed for 295 yards and two touchdowns in the victory over the Jaguars while running back Knowshon Moreno rushed for three scores.

Manning's successor in Indy, Andrew Luck -- the No. 1 overall selection by the Colts in 2012 -- has won 15 of his first 22 career starts. He guided the Colts to the playoffs as a rookie a year ago and currently has the team in first place in the AFC South.

In Monday's loss at San Diego, Manning's former favorite target and Luck's current one, Reggie Wayne, reached 1,000 career catches (1,001), becoming the ninth player in NFL history to do so. The Colts -- with Wayne and Marvin Harrison (1,102) -- are the first team in NFL history to have two players with 1,000 receptions and Manning was a huge part of that.

PREDICTION: Broncos 34, Colts 27

Minnesota (1-4) at New York Giants (0-6), Monday, 8:40 p.m.

LINE: Giants by 3

THE SKINNY: If the Giants are ever going to get it done, this is probably the week. The Vikings figure to turn to their third QB of the season, talented but enigmatic ex-Bucs starter Josh Freeman. But unless Freeman also can line up at cornerback, defensive tackle and linebacker, it might not matter.

Minnesota's defense is giving up 31.6 points per game (30th in the NFL), 308 passing yards per contest (29th) and 418 total yards (31st). And the one thing the Giants can do is throw the football. Victor Cruz has 14 catches for 261 yards and two TDs in his past two "Monday Night Football" games, while Hakeem Nicks had seven catches for 96 yards in his last meeting against the Vikings. Also up-and-comer Reuben Randle has nine catches for 171 yards and three TDs over his last two contests.

PREDICTION: Giants 33, Vikings 24

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

Boston at Detroit
The Red Sox look to bounce back from last night's 7-3 loss and build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Boston is the pick according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Boston. Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 17

Game 919-920: Boston at Detroit (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 16.504; Detroit (Sanchez) 15.671
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A




MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 17

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BOSTON (102 - 68) at DETROIT (98 - 73) - 8:05 PM
JON LESTER (L) vs. ANIBAL SANCHEZ (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-5 (+0.8 Units) against BOSTON this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.6 Units)

JON LESTER vs. DETROIT since 1997
LESTER is 2-3 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.24 and a WHIP of 1.490.
His team's record is 3-5 (-4.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-4. (-0.5 units)

ANIBAL SANCHEZ vs. BOSTON since 1997
SANCHEZ is 1-0 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, October 17

Tigers-Red Sox
Lester is 3-1, 2.38 in his last five starts, but allowed 19 hits in 13 IP in his last two starts on the road; three of his last four starts went over the total. Lester is 2-1, 3.32 against the Tigers this season, losing that 1-0 game Saturday.

Sanchez is 1-2, 6.26 in his last five home starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine starts overall. He struck out 12 and didn't allow a hit in six IP against Boston earlier in this series, a 1-0 Detroit win, his only '13 start vs Red Sox.

Boston is 3-5 in their last eight road games; 10 of their last 13 games went over total. Red Sox are 5-6 vs Detroit this season, with the home team 7-4 in those 11 games. Detroit is 7-9 in its last 16 games; nine of their last thirteen stayed under the total. Tigers won eight of their last twelve home games- they're 28-23 vs lefthanded starters this season.




MLB

Thursday, October 17

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Trend Report
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8:07 PM
BOSTON vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Boston is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games at home
Detroit is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home

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MLB

Thursday, October 17

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Red Sox at Tigers: What bettors need to know
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Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers (N/A)

Series tied 2-2.

The pitchers who set the tone for this American League Championship Series oppose each other again Thursday night when Anibal Sanchez takes the mound for host Detroit against Jon Lester of Boston in Game 5. Sanchez struck out 12 in six no-hit innings in the opener and Lester also was strong as the Tigers squeaked out a 1-0 victory. Detroit center fielder Austin Jackson reached base four times as the Tigers evened the series with a 7-3 victory Wednesday.

Detroit’s Jhonny Peralta singled in the lone run against Lester in the opener, a contest in which Sanchez walked six and was pulled after 116 pitches. Jackson’s standout Game 4 performance in which he had two hits, two walks and two RBIs came after he was dropped to eighth in the lineup due to a deep postseason slump (3-for-33, 18 strikeouts). Boston slugger David Ortiz was hitless in five at-bats in Game 4 to drop to 1-for-15 in the series – his only hit being the game-tying grand slam in Game 2. The Red Sox had 12 hits to match their total over the first three games but went 2-for-16 with runners in scoring position and left 10 men on base.

TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, Fox

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 50s with an 82 percent chance of rain and winds blowing WSW at 11 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox LH Jon Lester (0-1, 1.42 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez (1-0, 0.00)

Lester allowed one run and six hits in 6 1/3 innings in Game 1 and has given up just three runs in 14 postseason innings this month. The opener marked his first loss since Aug. 29 as he finished the regular season by allowing two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts and has added two such performances in the postseason. That stretch included a Sept. 3 start when Lester struck out nine and allowed one run in seven innings to beat the Tigers.

Sanchez joined Walter Johnson (12 innings in 1924 World Series) as the only pitchers to strike out 12 and walk six in the same playoff game. The stellar outing represented a sharp turnaround from his start against Oakland in the AL Division Series when he allowed six runs (five earned) and eight hits – including three homers – in 4 1/3 innings. Sanchez has struck out 10 or more batters six times this season.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Detroit.
* Over is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings.
* Red Sox are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit.

UMP TRENDS - Dale Scott:

* Under is 4-0 in Scott's last four games behind home plate.
* Red Sox are 1-5 in their last six games with Scott behind home plate.
* Home team is 5-1 in Scott's last six games behind home plate vs. Detroit.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Red Sox CF Jacoby Ellsbury went 4-for-5 with an RBI in Game 4 after going 1-for-10 over the first three games.

2. Tigers RF Torii Hunter batted leadoff for the first time since 1999 and had a crucial two-run double in Detroit’s five-run, second-inning uprising.

3. Boston batters have fanned 10 times or more in all four games and 53 overall in the series.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, October 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 8:25 PM ET Seattle -4.5 500 POD # 1

Arizona - Over 41 500 POD # 2

[StarDust Bum]

Loved this play all week and it comes in nicely......

[StarDust Bum]

Divisional Battles - Week 7

October 18, 2013


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (5-1) at NEW YORK JETS (3-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: New England -4 & 44
Opening & Total: Patriots -6 & 43.5

AFC East rivals meet for the second time in six weeks when the Patriots visit the Jets on Sunday afternoon.

New England scored with 0:05 left to edge the Saints 30-27 last week, while New York had only 267 total yards in a 19-6 home loss versus the Steelers. The Patriots are still hoping for TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm) to play, while Jets fans are hoping for fewer miscues (minus-11 turnover margin). New York turned the ball over four times in its Week 2 loss in New England, and that 13-10 decision gave the Patriots six straight regular-season wins in this series (4-2 ATS), and gave QB Tom Brady a 19-5 SU record versus the Jets as a starter. But for Sunday, New England has major defensive injuries in this matchup with DT Vince Wilfork (ankle) and LB Jerod Mayo (pectoral) both out for the season, and top CB Aqib Talib (hip) listed as questionable. Both teams will likely be missing their top receivers, as Patriots WR Danny Amendola is dealing with a concussion and Jets WR Santonio Holmes is still bothered by a hamstring injury. Bill Belichick is 20-9 ATS (69%) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, and 35-18 ATS (66%) in October as the Patriots head coach, but the Jets are 6-3 ATS (67%) as a home underdog under head coach Rex Ryan and 16-4 ATS (80%) at home after a home loss since 1992.

New England's offense continues to struggle with just 4.9 yards per play (25th in NFL) and 20.8 PPG (22nd in league). The passing game has been particularly frustrating, as the club has thrown for just 5.7 yards per attempt (3rd-worst in NFL). Another huge negative is the Patriots' woeful red-zone offense (40.9%, 3rd-worst in league) that includes an NFL-worst 33% goal-to-go efficiency. QB Tom Brady has not had a season with more sacks than TD passes since 2006, but this year he has absorbed twice as many sacks (16) as he's thrown touchdowns (eight). If TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm) can finally return to the field, his touchdown acumen (39 TD in 43
career
games) will really help this red-zone efficiency. Rookie WR Kenbrell Thompkins has caught four of the eight Brady TD passes this year, but only one has been less than 15 yards. The Jets did a nice job stopping the Patriots through the air in Week 2, holding Brady to 19-of-39 completions for 185 yards (4.7 YPA). The New England ground game has been decent this season with 121 rushing YPG (11th in NFL) on 4.1 YPC (16th in NFL), but it was horrible against New York, gaining just 54 yards on 24 attempts (2.3 YPC). Top RB Stevan Ridley managed just 40 yards on 16 carries in that game (2.5 YPC), but he has been much stronger in his past two contests with 149 yards on 31 carries (4.8 YPC) and two touchdowns last week. The Patriots defense has really shined all year, but will be tested without possibly their three best defenders in DT Vince Wilfork, LB Jerod Mayo and CB Aqib Talib. The unit is allowing just 16.2 PPG (4th in NFL) despite a pedestrian 348 total YPG allowed (14th in NFL). They have kept points to a minimum with 12 takeaways, including four against the Jets in Week 2. New England also recorded a season-high-tying four sacks in that win versus New York, but managed just one sack in last week's win over the Saints.

The Jets have been up and down all season, due mostly to the erratic play of QB Geno Smith. In his six games, his quarterback rating has been 80.6, 27.6, 89.9, 79.2, 147.7 and 48.8 last week. All totaled, Smith's 74.7 passer rating (59.5% completions, 7 TD, 10 INT) ranks 27th among all 35 qualified NFL quarterbacks. His lowest rating of the year came against New England in Week 2 when he completed just 15-of-35 passes for 214 yards, 0 TD and 3 INT. Smith has not been helped by a revolving receiving corps with Holmes missing the past two games, starting TE Kellen Winslow suspended for PEDs and WR Clyde Gates placed on IR earlier this week with a shoulder injury. The only active player with multiple touchdown catches this season is backup TE Jeff Cumberland, who has just 11 receptions, but two have been in the end zone. The Jets did a nice job of running the football in their Week 2 loss to the Patriots, gaining 129 yards on 32 carries (4.0 YPC). RB Chris Ivory led the team with 52 yards on 12 carries (4.3 YPC) that night, but he has been limited by a hamstring injury and has totaled just 12 carries in the four games since that meeting. RB Bilal Powell is the main ball carrier with 360 yards on 4.1 YPC this year, but he has been terrible in the past two games with a mere 68 yards on 21 attempts (3.2 YPC). Defensively, no team has been better than New York at stuffing the run, as the unit is allowing an NFL-best 2.97 YPC and 75.7 rushing YPG (2nd in NFL). The passing defense has also been strong with 6.2 YPA allowed (8th in league), but this team seriously needs to generate some turnovers to help out the offense. In the past five games, the Jets have recorded just one takeaway. The secondary, which has one interception all season, could be missing both CBs Dee Milliner (hamstring) and Kyle Wilson (head) on Sunday.

DALLAS COWBOYS (3-3) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Philadelphia -2.5 & 56
Opening Line & Total: Eagles -2.5 & 57

The Eagles look for a third straight victory when the hated Cowboys come to town Sunday.

Dallas snapped a two-game losing skid with a 31-16 win over the Redskins last week, but lost starting RB DeMarco Murray to a knee injury. Backup QB Nick Foles threw for 296 yards and 3 TD (two to DeSean Jackson) to lead Philly to a 31-20 victory in Tampa Bay, improving his team to 3-0 (SU and ATS) versus NFC opponents this year. With QB Michael Vick still sidelined with a hamstring injury, Foles will get the call again. These teams are 10-10 SU versus one another in the past 20 meetings, but the Cowboys swept the Eagles last year. They scored 76 points in the two wins behind 512 passing yards, 5 TD and 0 INT from QB Tony Romo, who is in the midst of an excellent season with 14 TD and 3 INT. There are negative trends for both teams in this contest, as over the past three seasons, Dallas is just 4-14 ATS (22%) after an SU win and 8-18 ATS (31%) versus conference opponents. However, in the past two seasons, the Eagles are a woeful 6-15 ATS overall (29%), including a winless 0-9 ATS at home.

Dallas ranks second in the NFL with 30.5 points per game, and places seventh in both yards per play (5.9) and yards per pass attempt (7.3). While the total yards are slightly above average (350 YPG, 13th in league), the team has been able to keep point totals high with a 65.2% red-zone efficiency (4th in league). Because the Cowboys have gained just 85 YPG on the ground, reaching 100 yards just once all year, the loss of top RB DeMarco Murray isn't a huge blow. However, unproven rookie backup RB Joseph Randle may not be ready for a full workload having just 11 carries for 17 yards this season, which all came last week against Washington. Dallas will continue to air out the football with QB Tony Romo whose 108.6 passer rating ranks third in the NFL, as does his career-best 70.2% completion rate. Helping Romo carve up the Eagles last year was star WR Dez Bryant who caught nine passes for 185 yards and 3 TD in the two victories. This season, Bryant already has 34 catches for 459 yards and six scores. TE Jason Witten (340 rec. yards, 3 TD) has also enjoyed facing the Eagles over the years, tallying his fourth career 100-yard effort against them last December when he recorded a game-high 108 receiving yards on six catches. The defense has not kept pace with the offense in 2013 though, allowing 413.2 total YPG, the third-highest number in the NFL. A poor third-down defense (42.3%, 25th in NFL) has led to the club allowing 23.8 first downs per game (4th-worst in league). Dallas has also struggled to stop the run, surrendering 4.4 YPC (25th in NFL). The unit needs to do a better job creating turnovers too with just six takeaways over the past five games, but it won't be easy with a thin D-Line unit that could be missing DEs DeMarcus Ware (quad), George Selvie (shoulder) and Edgar Jones (groin).

New head coach Chip Kelly's fast-paced offense continues to wear down opponents with 179 rushing YPG on 5.4 YPC, both NFL-leading numbers. However the lack of huddles has led to a poor time of possession (26:22, 3rd-worst in NFL), and this club has been terrible in the red zone with a 45% efficiency rate (T-27th in NFL). QB Nick Foles has done a nice job under center this year, completing 67.2% of his passes for 542 yards (8.9 YPA) with 6 TD and 0 INT. More than 30 percent of the Eagles' targets have gone to dynamic WR DeSean Jackson, who has 34 catches for 589 yards (17.3 average) and five touchdowns already. Jackson has averaged 77 receiving YPG in eight career meetings with Dallas, but has found the end zone only once. The NFL's top rusher, RB LeSean McCoy (630 rush yards in 2013), has run for 624 yards in six career games against the Cowboys, but has failed to score a touchdown in five of those meetings. In addition to his running prowess this season, McCoy has also shined in the passing game with 16.1 yards per catch (tops among all NFL running backs) on his 15 receptions. While the offense has done its fair share of gaining gobs of yardage, the defense has been torched all season. Philly is surrendering 420 total YPG and 25.3 first downs per game, both of which rank last in the entire league. The unit's third-down conversion rate is weak (42.5%, 26th in NFL), which has contributed greatly to its 33:37 defensive time of possession (4th-most in league). The Eagles have had a positive turnover margin just once in the past four games, but that was against the turnover-riddled Giants. The only new significant injury to Philly's defense is S Patrick Chung, who is questionable with a neck ailment.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-3) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (1-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Pittsburgh -1.5 & 41
Opening Line & Total: Steelers -2 & 40.5

The Steelers try to carry momentum from their first win when they host the rival Ravens on Sunday.

Neither team has been able to run the football this season, with both clubs gaining less than 75 rushing YPG and ranking among the bottom three NFL teams in yards per carry. Baltimore lost 19-17 to the Packers last week, rushing for 47 yards on 22 carries, while Pittsburgh wasn’t much better (73 yards on 26 carries) in a 19-6 win at the Jets. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger did not face the Ravens last year, but is 9-4 as a starter against them. This series is an even 10-10 SU since 2004, but the road team has produced three straight SU wins. Both clubs have some positive trends for Sunday's encounter. Since 1992, Baltimore is 13-4 ATS (77%) away after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in its previous game, and all NFL road teams with poor rushing offenses (90 rush YPG or less) are 32-9 ATS (78%) in the past five seasons. But since 1992, Pittsburgh is 49-30 ATS (62%) in October games, and 57-33 ATS (63%) in weeks 5 through 9.

Baltimore's rushing offense has been dreadful, as evidenced by its 2.7 yards per carry. Top RB Ray Rice has never rushed below 4.0 YPC in his career, but this year he's gaining just 2.8 YPC on his 71 attempts. Despite Pittsburgh's usually stout run defense, Rice has rushed for 864 yards (96 YPG) and 5 TD in nine games in this series since 2009. The Ravens haven't done a great job throwing the football either with 6.7 yards per pass attempt (18th in NFL). QB Joe Flacco has tossed more picks (eight) than touchdowns (seven), and has already absorbed 19 sacks (3.2 per game). He hasn't been outstanding versus the Steelers in his career either with a 5-7 record, 54.7% completion rate, 202 passing YPG, 12 TD and 9 INT. Flacco will continue to lean on dynamic WR Torrey Smith who leads the AFC with 568 receiving yards despite having just one catch in last week's loss to Green Bay. Baltimore's defense has allowed 353 total YPG (17th in NFL) and 21.5 PPG (13th in league), which are surprisingly high numbers considering it is tied for the league lead in red-zone efficiency (25%) and ranks fourth in third down conversions (31.2%). A minus-3 turnover ratio is partially to blame for the defense not ranking better in scoring defense. OLB Terrell Suggs is having a huge season though, recording 7.5 of his team's 22 sacks, which is the second-highest total in the NFL behind only the Chiefs. Suggs' pressure has been a key with a banged-up defensive line that includes two questionable players for this week, DT Terrence Cody (knee) and DE Chris Canty (groin).

Pittsburgh's rushing offense has been stalled all season with 61.0 YPG (2nd-worst in NFL) on 3.1 YPC (3rd-worst in league), but rookie RB Le'Veon Bell is bound to improve from last week's 34 yards on 16 carries in which head coach Mike Tomlin said Bell actually ran very well, but that he had no holes to run through against a tough Jets defense. The Steelers did a solid job of rushing against the Ravens last year (230 yards on 4.3 YPC) with backs much less talented than Bell. Offensively, QB Ben Roethlisberger has been steadily improving with a passer rating above 90 in each of the past three games where he's completed 70% of his passes for 1,053 yards (351 YPG), 4 TD and 3 INT. Four Steelers have seen at least 20 targets over the five games, led by WR Antonio Brown's 41 catches for 498 yards, but WR Emmanuel Sanders (301 rec. yards), WR Jerricho Cotchery (16.5 yards per catch) and TE Heath Miller (15 catches on 20 targets) have all done a nice job getting open. The Pittsburgh defense has given up just 311 total YPG (6th in NFL) and 5.0 yards per play (9th in league), but has been unable to provide steady pressure on the quarterback with an AFC-low seven sacks this year. Before last week's two interceptions against the Jets, Pittsburgh had not forced a turnover in any of its first four games. Injuries have been a problem all season, and both DE Brett Keisel (ribs) and LB Jarvis Jones (concussion) are listed as questionable for Sunday's game.