The Bum's October NFL POD'S + Trends + Stats & News !

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Sharp Moves - Week 7

October 18, 2013


We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that look a lot sharper than others. Here’s a look at some of the best spots on the Week 7 board.

All betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchups as of Friday afternoon

(Rotation #413) Tampa Bay +7 – The Falcons have so many injuries right now that it’s no laughing matter. Joe Public doesn't seem to care, as it thinks that Tampa Bay's winless record is enough to keep it on the wrong side of the number on Sunday at the Georgia Dome. Little does the public remember that the Buccaneers are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 visits to Hot 'Lanta.

Opening Line: Tampa Bay +8.5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +7
Public Betting Percentage: 62% on Atlanta

(Rotation #398) New York +3.5 – There's no way that QB Tom Brady and the gang couldn't cover 3 ½ lousy points against the Jets, right? That's the perception right now, but we aren't so sure that it’s truly a reality. New York has a team that can contend for a spot in the playoffs for sure in the weakened AFC, and this is a game that is winnable, especially with the Patriots missing three massive starters in their front seven defensively.

Opening Line: New York +3.5
Current Line: New York +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 74% on New England

(Rotation #401) Houston +6.5 – The Texans are sliding in a bad way. You'd figure that starting QB Case Keenum would have caused the betting lines to move, but sharp action probably thinks that this Houston team might actually have more talent on it, even with the Keenum at quarterback, than the undefeated Chiefs have. Remember that KC really hasn't played much of anyone all year long.

Opening Line: Houston +6.5
Current Line: Houston +6.5
Public Betting Percentage: 70% on Kansas City

(Rotation #423) Minnesota +3.5 – The Giants have yet to win a game this season, but they are actually laying points on Monday Night Football against the Vikings. Starting QB Josh Freeman isn't helping matters any for the Vikings, knowing that he is starting after just 12 days of being on the team, but the Giants can't stop the run either. RB Adrian Peterson might have a field day. Having the MNF bias certainly helps out the case for the dogs.

Opening Line: Minnesota +3.5
Current Line: Minnesota +3.5
Public Betting Percentages: 66% on New York

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Gridiron Angles - Week 7

October 19, 2013


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND

-- The Jets are 10-0-1 ATS since Nov 19, 1995 as a home dog after a loss at home.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND

-- The Bills are 0-11 ATS since Nov 29, 1998 as a dog when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND

-- The Bengals are 0-10 OU since Dec 24, 2011 after a road game in which AJ Green had more than 6 receptions.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND

-- The Rams are 11-0 ATS since 2008 if not 14+ point dogs, if they had a turnover margin of at least +2 last game.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM

-- Teams which have allowed between 700 and 775 yards passing over the past two games are 57-39-1 ATS. Active on Denver.

NFL O/U TREND

-- The Steelers are 0-13 OU since December 2006 at home when facing a team that has benefited from an average of less than 1.4 turnovers per game season-to-date.

PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP

-- Following Seattle’s win against Arizona Thursday there is still a whole whack of football to get through before Minnesota (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) hits New York for Monday’s game against the Giants (0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS). We can see that the line has already moved across a key number, though, to New York (-3.5) so for this week’s tip we will focus our attention here.

-- “Due factor” is the phrase around most water coolers but wasn’t New York “due” after the shutout loss to Carolina? There is another trend suggesting value on home teams following a Thursday nighter and this one makes sense. The players have had extra rest, coaches’ additional time to gameplan and without the hassle of travel the home side has no excuse for a weak effort.

-- This season, home teams are 7-1 ATS off a Thursday game including a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark when favored

But the Vikings were 3-5 straight-up on the road last year and so far Minnesota has lost both road games at Detroit and Chicago. Are they not “due?” The Vikes are 12-2 ATS off a blowout loss the past 12 years including a 5-1 ATS record on the road; that certainly adds support to the dog.

-- Minnesota has issues in the secondary and a new starter under center but they also have Adrian Peterson and the Giants struggle against the run. At +3.5 points or more, we like the VIKINGS to cover.

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Total Talk - Week 7

October 19, 2013


Week 6 Recap

The ‘over’ went 8-6-1 last weekend, with the lone push occurring in the Carolina-Minnesota affair. Even though the number was hovering between 52 and 54 points, most bettors watched the Denver Broncos improve their ‘over’ record to 6-0 this season despite them having their lowest scoring output of the season.

Bettors with tickets on the ‘under’ in New Orleans-New England took it on the chin as the Patriots scored a touchdown with five second left. The outcome went from Saints-Under to Patriots-Over, which hurt the guys behind the betting counter.

Fortunately for the books, both the Sunday Night and Monday Night affairs went ‘under’ the number. On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 48-43-1.

Line Moves

As mentioned above, the books made out with the two primetime games staying ‘under’ and they also were able to withstand the early action from the professionals as well. The Line Moves went 1-4-1 last week, with the Denver-Jacksonville outcome listed as the lone winner. The last two weeks, the early moves have gone 3-9-1. Despite the slump, the line moves are 18-12-1. Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which are sent out on Sunday evening.

Chicago at Washington: Line opened 51 and dropped to 49
Dallas at Philadelphia: Line opened 56 and dropped to 54 ½
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Line opened 42 and jumped to 43 ½
San Francisco at Tennessee: Line opened 38 ½ and jumped to 41

Non-Conference Overs

VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence was the first to inform us of the AFC-NFC ‘over’ angle and we’ll keep reminding you. Last week’s non-conference matchups saw the ‘over’ go 3-2, pushing the number to 22-10 (69%) on the season. On Sunday, we have three AFC-NFC affairs on tap.

Cincinnati at Detroit
San Francisco at Tennessee
Cleveland at Green Bay

Off the Bye

Even though it’s not the largest sample size (six games) to analyze, be aware that teams off rest this season have been more rusty than rested, especially on the offensive side. In the six games listed below, the ‘under’ has gone 4-1-1 and the club off the bye is only averaging 15.5 points per game. Two more teams will be playing with rest this week.

Week 5 – Packers, Panthers

Green Bay 22 Detroit 9 (Under 54)
Carolina 6 Arizona 22 (Under 41)

Week 6 – Vikings, Steelers, Buccaneers, Redskins

Minnesota 10 Carolina 35 (Push 54)
Pittsburgh 19 N.Y. Jets 6 (Under 41)
Tampa Bay 20 Philadelphia 31 (Over 45)
Washington 16 Dallas 31 (Under 53)

Week 7 – Dolphins, Falcons

Miami vs. Buffalo
Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay

Divisional Angles

New England at N.Y. Jets: The Patriots nipped the Jets 13-10 in Week 2 at home and the closing total of 43 ½ was never threatened. Prior to this ‘under’ result, the ‘over’ has cashed in the seven previous encounters. New England has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 this season and it could be 5-1 if it wasn’t for the aforementioned outcome last week against the Saints.

Buffalo at Miami: Five of the last six meetings have gone ‘under’ the number. The Bills have been held to 17 points or less in their last five trips to South Florida and they’ll have a rookie quarterback under center.

Dallas at Philadelphia: These teams played to shootouts last season, as the Cowboys earned 38-23 and 38-33 victories over the Eagles.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The ‘under’ went 2-0 last season but the second encounter occurred in Week 17 when the Falcons were resting starters. Atlanta has seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 this season, which has been helped by a defense that hasn’t held any opponents under 23 points.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Most bettors expect defensive battles with this pair but the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in the past five meetings. The Ravens have allowed, 49, 23 and 23 points in their three road games this season.

Under the Lights

For the second consecutive weekend, bettors watched the ‘under’ cash on Sunday and Monday night. However, the primetime game played on Thursday has been an easy ‘over’ ticket recently. On the season, the ‘over’ is 13-8 (62%) in games played under the lights.

Denver at Indianapolis: This total (56 ½) is the highest on the board and it’s definitely inflated due to the offensive numbers (44.2 PPG, 476 YPG) that the Broncos have put up this season, plus the ‘over’ has cashed in all six of their games. Despite those fact, Indianapolis has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 this season behind a defense that is ranked fourth in scoring (16.3 PPG). Another shootout is very doable but certainly not a guarantee.

Minnesota at N.Y. Giants: I was a little surprised this total (47) wasn’t higher considering how poor the Vikings (31.6 PPG) and Giants (34.8 PPG) are defensively. Minnesota has watched the ‘over’ go 4-0-1 this season and New York has leaned to the high side (4-2) as well. The Vikings will start newly acquired Josh Freeman at quarterback, which should spark an offense that’s one-dimensional.

Fearless Predictions

After pushing our fictitious bankroll in the black in Week 5, we quickly got back in the red with a 1-3 (-220) performance. The Best Bets stand at 6-4, Team Totals 3-2 and unfortunately our Three-Team Total Teasers are now 1-4, which is real poor when you’re getting points. While last week’s effort was disappointing, I’m more upset that I overlooked a great total system play on the Philadelphia-Tampa Bay matchup. It does occur one more time this season and we’ll be sure to inform you. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Houston-Kansas City 39
Best Under: Dallas-Philadelphia 54 ½
Best Team Total: Over Houston 17

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over Houston-Kansas 30
Under Buffalo-Miami 52 ½
Over Minnesota-N.Y. Giants 38

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Week 7 Tip Sheet

October 19, 2013

Patriots (-3 ½, 43 ½) at Jets - 1:00 PM EST

New England: 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS
New York: 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS

Last week's results: The Patriots picked up their most dramatic victory of the season in a 30-27 triumph to hand the Saints their first loss of 2013. New England has covered three of the last four games after failing to cash in the first two weeks. The Jets couldn't capitalize off the Monday night upset at Atlanta two weeks ago, as New York fell at home to Pittsburgh in Week 6 as short home favorites, 19-6.

Previous meeting results: The Jets hung around with the Patriots in Week 2 as 11-point road underdogs in a 13-10 defeat. New England built and early 10-0 advantage, but the Patriots were limited to three points in the final 35 minutes of the game. The Pats have won five straight games in the series, while taking each of the last two visits to Met Life Stadium by 21 points or more.

Betting notes: New England is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite this season, while failing to cover in the last four opportunities in the away 'chalk' role. The Jets have won three times off a loss this season, but have scored 18 points or less in four games.

Bengals at Lions (-2 ½, 47) - 1:00 PM EST

Cincinnati: 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS
Detroit: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS

Last week's results: The Bengals failed to cover in a 27-24 overtime victory at Buffalo, as Cincinnati has won four of its last five after dropping the season opener at Chicago. The Lions rallied past the Browns in Week 6 by outscoring Cleveland in the second half, 24-0 in a 31-17 road triumph.

Previous meeting results: The Lions cashed as 13 ½-point road underdogs at Cincinnati in a 23-13 defeat in 2009. The Bengals dominated the Lions in their last visit to the Motor City in 2005, a 41-17 rout as 10-point favorites.

Betting notes: Detroit has easily hit the 'over' in each of its two games at Ford Field this season, averaging 37 points per game at home. Cincinnati has eclipsed the 'over' in both contests against NFC North opponents this season, while posting a 2-0-1 ATS record as an underdog.

Cowboys at Eagles (-2 ½, 55) - 1:00 PM EST

Dallas: 3-3 SU, 5-1 ATS
Philadelphia: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS

Last week's results: Dallas bounced back from its home loss to Denver by knocking off Washington last Sunday night, 31-16 to cash as 5 ½-point favorites. The Cowboys improved to 2-0 in the NFC East, while all three losses have come to AFC West opponents. The Eagles are coming back to life after a 1-3 start by winning each of the last two games on the road against the Bucs and Giants (who are a combined 0-11). Like Dallas, Philadelphia also owns a perfect 2-0 record inside the division, making Sunday's home contest pivotal for the NFC East race.

Previous meeting results: The Cowboys swept the season series from the Eagles last season, while scoring 38 points in each victory. Nick Foles took over for an injured Michael Vick in the first loss at Philadelphia, while Foles threw for 251 yards in a 38-33 defeat at Cowboys Stadium to cash as 11-point road underdogs.

Betting notes: Foles will get the start on Sunday in place of Vick for the Eagles, as Philadelphia has hit the 'over' in five of six games this season. The Cowboys have cashed three of their last four in the underdog role since last December, while Dallas owns a 4-2 record the previous six contests against NFC East foes.

49ers (-3, 41) at Titans - 4:05 PM EST

San Francisco: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS
Tennessee: 3-3 SU, 4-1-1 ATS

Last week's results: San Francisco held off Arizona, 32-20 to cash as 10-point home favorites, the third straight win for the 49ers. The Niners have scored at least 30 points in all four victories this season, while putting up a combined 10 points in the two losses. The Titans managed a cover as double-digit 'dogs at Seattle, but couldn't get the offense going in a 20-13 defeat at Seattle.

Previous meeting results: Tennessee cashed as 4 ½-point road underdogs at Candlestick Park in 2009 in a 34-27 victory. Even though all the faces are different, the Titans topped the 49ers in Nashville back in 2005 in a 33-22 triumph as nine-point 'chalk.'

Betting notes: The Titans have scored 17 points or fewer in each of the last two weeks, while posting a 3-1 ATS record as an underdog this season. Jake Locker will return under center for the Titans after missing the last games with a hip injury. San Francisco has cashed in five of the last six opportunities as a road favorite since last September, with the lone defeat coming at St. Louis last season in overtime.

Browns at Packers (-10, 46) - 4:25 PM EST

Cleveland: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
Green Bay: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS

Last week's results: Cleveland's three-game winning streak came to an end in a home defeat to Detroit, 31-17. The Browns wrapped up their three-game homestand at 2-1 SU/ATS, while hitting the 'over' in each of the last two weeks. Green Bay's defense stepped up for the second straight week with a 19-17 victory at Baltimore, as the Packers have held their last two opponents to a combined 26 points.

Previous meeting results: The Packers crushed the Browns as 9 ½-point road favorites in 2009 with a 31-3 rout. Green Bay outgained Cleveland, 460-139, while Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdown passes in the victory.

Betting notes: Since losing the season opener to San Francisco last season, the Packers have won 10 consecutive games at Lambeau Field (8-2 ATS). The Browns have covered four of their last six as a double-digit underdog since December 2011, but have lost five of their past six against NFC opponents.

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Patriots (5-1) @ Jets (3-3)—Rex Ryan is 3-7 vs Belichick, but 0-5 since Jets won ’10 playoff game, with three of those five losses by 9+ points. Patriots won first meeting this year 13-10 in Week 2; they won 37-16/49-19 in last two visits here; they’re not same juggernaut they once were, with last three games coming down to red zone drive in last minute. Only once in six games have Patriots averaged more than 5.2 yards/pass attempt- LY, they had only one game all year under 5.5 ypa. Just one of five NE wins is by more than 7 points, but since ’04, they’re 16-5-2 as a divisional road favorite. Jets are 4-3 as home dogs under Ryan; they are -10 in turnovers (no takeaways) in their three losses, -1 (three takeaways) in three wins- they’re 2-1 at home this season, losing to Steelers last week. Divisional home underdogs are 5-2 vs spread this season. Four of six NE games stayed under the total; three of last four Jet games went over.

Chargers (3-3) @ Jaguars (0-6)—Huge trap game for San Diego, with cross-country flight on short week after upset win on Monday Night Football; this is their 4th road game in last six weeks and a pre-bye game (2-3 in pre-bye games last five years)- they’re 7-13 vs spread in last 20 games as a road favorite, 0-1 this year, and 1-7-1 vs spread in game following their last nine wins. Chargers are 1-2 on road, with only win by FG at Philly- they didn’t lead any of the three games at half (outscored 37-20). Jaguars are so bad they lost by 16 last week at Denver but easily covered spread; they’re 1-5 vs spread, 0-2 at home, outscored 65-5 in home losses to Chiefs (28-2), Colts (37-3) (no TDs/25 drives at home, 13 3/outs). AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road; AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 5-7 vs spread, 1-3 at home. Three of last four Jax games went over total; over is 3-2-1 in San Diego games.

Texans (2-4) @ Chiefs (6-0)—Underrated KC defense has allowed 10 ppg in three home games (three TDs on 37 drives). Houston gives #3 QB Keenum his first career start; seeing as Texans have thrown pick-6 in last five games (Yates did last week), he can't do much worse. Houston has been outscored 67-10 in second half of last four games, all losses. 6-0 Chiefs have three defensive TDs, two on special teams in first six games; they’re 2-1 as home favorite this year, making them 5-14-1 in last 20 such games. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread, 4-2 at home. AFC South non-divisional dogs are 5-8 vs spread, 4-4 on road. Non-divisional home favorites of 4+ points are 14-9 vs spread. Texans are 3-2 in this series, winning 24-21 in only visit here in ’04, but they’re mess now and wouldn’t be surprised if coaching change was made Monday, since Houston has Week 8 bye. Five of six KC games stayed under total.

Bengals (4-2) @ Lions (4-2)— Cincinnati lost Super Bowl XVI (Jan ’82) in Silverdome, but otherwise is 4-1 in Motor City, winning last three visits here by 6-4-24 points; they’ve won four in row and seven of last eight series games, with average total in last four, 48.5. Detroit scored 34-40 points in winning both home games, scoring seven TDs on 26 drives, with eight takeaways (+3) in two games (they’ve got five takeaways (+2) in four road games)- they’re 10-6 vs spread in last 16 games as a home favorite. Cincy is 1-2 on road, with only win OT escape in Buffalo vs backup QB making his 2nd career start; they’re 5-2-1 in last eight games as a road underdog, 17-8 vs spread in game following their last 25 wins. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 5-3-1 vs spread, 2-1-1 on road. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-7-1 vs spread, 1-4-1 at home. AFC teams are 19-13 SU vs NFC teams so far this season.

Bills (2-4) @ Dolphins (3-2)—Not sure which banged-up Buffalo QB gets nod here; they signed Matt Flynn as a backup Monday. Miami is 7-3 in last 10 series games, with six of seven wins by 7+ points. Buffalo lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 9-28-27-14 points. Bills are 4-12-1 in last 17 games as road underdogs, 0-2 this year, losing 27-20 (+2.5) at Jets, 37-24 (+4.5) at Browns, only two games they’ve had with minus turnover ratios (-1 in both; +5 in four home games). For team with young QBs, Bills stay strong, scoring 14+ second half points in second half four of last five games. Well-coached Miami won Philbin’s first post-bye game 30-9 LY, are 3-2 in last five; Dolphins split first two home games, which were decided by total of 7 points, but are dismal 7-18 in last 25 games as a home favorite (3-3 under Philbin). NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 13-5 vs spread so far this season. Last four Miami games, four of last five Buffalo games went over the total.

Bears (4-2) @ Redskins (1-4)—Key in Chicago games has been field position; Bears were +12 or better in average field position in their four wins, -15/-18 in two losses. Redskin special teams were putrid Sunday, giving up 85-yard PR for TD and 90-yard KO return, only third time ever same guy did those things in same game. Washington won last four series games, with only one of four series wins by more than three points; average total in those games was 27.5. Bears allowed 21+ points in all six games, with five of them going over total- they’ve forced 3+ turnovers in five of six games (+7). Redskins allowed 30 ppg in losing first two home games, allowing seven TDs on 25 drives, with only five 3/outs. Griffin isn’t as mobile as he was before his injury, and mobility is big part of his game; when they lost in Dallas last week despite Murray/Ware not playing in second half, it was major red flag for the Skins. Bears have lost six of last seven visits here, with last win in ’03.

Cowboys (3-3) @ Eagles (3-3)—Dallas scored 31+ points in winning three of first four home games, but only 16-21 in losing first two on road, by 1 at Arrowhead, 9 at San Diego. Kiffin’s defense has been torched by Rivers and both Manning brothers, will be without pass rusher Ware, and are hard pressed to keep explosive Eagles under wraps. Looks like Foles gets nod under center for Iggles in battle for first in NFC East; Vick’s hamstring needs another week to heal, but if Foles plays he did last week (22-31/287) Vick might get a lot of Sundays off. Philly scored 33-36 points in winning its first two division games, with 403 rushing yards and seven TDs on 26 drives, with only four 3/outs, but they’re 0-2 at home, giving up 33-26 points. Home side lost four of last six in this rivalry; Cowboys won three of last four visits here, but again without Ware/Murray here, this figures to be high scoring and fun to watch. Five of six Eagle games went over the total.

Rams (3-3) @ Panthers (2-3)—Carolina continues to have dominant defense, not allowing a first half TD in five games, outscoring opponents 50-12 before halftime; they’ve allowed one TD on 19 drives in two home games, blanking Giants 38-0, losing 12-7 to Seattle- in their two wins, they outscored opponents 42-7 after halftime, but in their losses, they’ve been outscored 49-16. Rams won last two games after 1-3 start, beating hapless Jags and crumbling Texans, with eight takeaways (+7) in two games, after having only five (-1) in first four games- they’ve run ball better since putting Stacy at RB, with 242 rushing yards in last two games. Under Fisher, Rams are 8-3 as road underdogs, 1-2 this year (lost 31-24 at Atlanta, 31-7 at Dallas). NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-3 vs spread, 3-3 on road; NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 3-2. Five of six St Louis games went over the total.

Buccaneers (0-5) @ Falcons (1-4)—Tampa Bay lost 10 of last 11 games as Schiano seems to be walking plank, but lone win was in season finale here LY; winless Bucs have three TDs on 34 drives in last three games, two TDs on 22 road drives (lost 18-17 at Jets, 23-3 at NE)- switching to rookie QB while team was winless seems stupid, but things got personal between QB/coach; Bucs are 5-3 as road dogs under Schiano, but have been outscored 48-13 in second half of games this year. Atlanta is off bye after dismal start where they had last-minute/red zone failures in last minute of all four losses; they’ve allowed 23+ points in all five games but have won last four post-bye games, and were underdog in three of them. Falcons are 1-2 as home favorites this year, are now 22-13 in that role under Smith. but they’ve also they’re NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 13-5 vs spread this season. Oddity: Bucs have been even in turnovers in all five games.

49ers (4-2) @ Titans (3-3)—Niners scored 35-34-32 points in winning last three games, scoring 11 TDs on 39 drives while running ball for 181.7 ypg; favorites covered both their road games, a 35-11 (-3) win in St Louis, a 29-3 (+3) loss in Seattle. SF is 6-4 as a road favorite under Harbaugh. Titans allowed 17 or less points in their three wins (2 TDs on 33 drives), 25.3 ppg in losses (8 TDs/35 drives); they’ve given up 147.7 rushing yards/game in their losses, 75 ypg in wins. Titans are 3-5 as home dog under Munchak; they’ve scored 17-13 points in losing both Fitzpatrick starts, since Locker got hurt, converting just 8-26 (30.8%) of third down plays (26-63 41.3% in Locker’s starts). NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-3 vs spread, 2-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 5-7, 1-3 at home. Tennessee is 7-5 in series, winning 33-22/34-27 in last two meetings; 49ers’ 33-22 loss in ’05 is their only previous visit here.

Browns (3-3) @ Packers (3-2)—Cleveland is 3-3; 0-3 when Weeden starts, 3-0 when Hoyer started, but they’ve led all six games at halftime; they’ve been outscored 55-3 in second half of Weeden’s three starts, all losses (they had 37-27 edge in Hoyer’s starts). Since 2010, Browns are 10-12-1 as road underdogs, 1-1 this year, losing 14-6 (+6) at Ravens, winning 31-27 (+6.5) at Vikings. Green Bay allowed 34 points in both losses this year, at 49ers/Bengals; they’re 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorite, 2-0 this year, beating Redskins 38-20 (-7), Lions 22-9 (-6). Since its bye, Green Bay has allowed 13 ppg in winning both games, with five sacks in each game. Pack has kicked a FG on each of five red zone drives, as injuries to WRs have hurt the offense. GB has become more of running team, rushing ball for 160.3 ypg over last four games. Pack won two of three meetings, with road team winning twice; Pack won last meeting 31-3 on Lake Erie.

Ravens (3-3) @ Steelers (1-4)—Baltimore’s last three games were decided by total of eight points; underdogs covered their last four games. Ravens won three of last four games in weird series where seven of last nine meetings were won by exactly three points. Baltimore won 23-20/13-10 in last two visits here- they’re 1-2 on road this season, getting drilled in Denver, splitting pair of 3-point decisions in Miami/Buffalo. Steelers got first two takeaways of season (-9) in 19-6 win at Swamp last week; they’re 0-2 at home this year, losing 16-9 (-7) to Titans, 40-34 to Bears. Pitt has yet to run ball for more than 80 yards in any game, but they’re 14 of last 31 (45.2%) on third down in last two games, after being 10-36 (27.8%) in first three games. Ravens outscored last five opponents 77-26 in second half. Four of last five Raven games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites of less than four points are 5-2 vs spread.

Broncos (6-0) @ Colts (4-2)—Peyton Manning returns to Indy, while Colt owner Irsay tries to deflect pressure off his young QB Luck by criticizing #18; good theater. Denver is on a historic pace, scoring 44.2 ppg- they won 35-19 last week and people acted like they had a bad game; they’ve scored 46 ppg in two high profile road games, at Giants/Cowboys, scoring 11 TDs on 23 drives, with six 3/outs. Broncos are converting 57.5% of third down plays, part of why they’ve won field position in every game; now they get defensive ace Miller back, which should only help bolster their defense. Colts had 3-game win streak snapped in San Diego Monday; they’ve given up 365 rushing yards in last two games but are 2-1 at home, with all three games decided by six or less points- they allowed 17 or less points in three of their four wins, scored only two TDs on 20 drives in their losses. All six Bronco games went over the total.

Vikings (1-4) @ Giants (0-6)—Josh Freeman becomes third QB to start for Vikings in last four games, and first QB since Kyle Orton in 2011 to start for two different teams in same season; Minnesota allowed 31+ points in all its losses, 27 in its win (over 1-4 Steelers)- they got crushed at home by Carolina last week, but now at least players know Freeman is going to start until he plays himself out of the job. How are the Giants favored over anyone? Well, teams coming off Thursday games are 8-2 vs spread this season, so there’s that, but not much else. Big Blue allowed 41-36 points in losing its two home games- they allowed 37 ppg in losing two games they were favored to win. Bucs scored three TDs on 32 drives in three games Freeman started for them, first of which was in season opener in this stadium vs Jets. All five Minnesota games and four of six Giant games have gone over the total. Freeman already played in this stadium for Bucs in this season's opener, when Tampa Bay lost to the Jets.

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NFL Betting Week 7 Preview Hot bets and moving odds

All odds current as of noon ET, Oct. 17

Peyton’s place

At some point, Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos may not be the top story of the week in the NFL – just don’t count on that happening until they have their bye in Week 9. Right now, Manning is getting ready to visit the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time as a Bronco in easily the most anticipated matchup of the week. Sports Interaction opened Denver as a 6-point road favorite, but that line has moved to -7 already with 88 percent of the action coming in on the Broncos. If you missed taking Denver at less than a touchdown, chances are it’s way too late to get that number now.

Over and out

Remember when seeing a 50-point total on the board actually caught your eye? This week we have three more totals above 50 points and a pile of matchups between teams pounding the over. The total for Denver-Indy is this week’s biggest number at 56.5, which isn’t shocking since Denver hasn’t played under yet this season. Dallas visits Philadelphia and Chip Kelly’s up-tempo attack and that total opened at 56.5 before dropping to 54.5. Chicago, which has played over in five of six games, visits Washington with a 50.5 over/under on the board.

Movers and shakers

The Arizona Cardinals have a lot to prove in this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup with the Seahawks. The last time these two teams hooked up, the Seahawks rubbed it in with a 58-0 win in Seattle. Now the Cardinals, who opened at +6, are looking for revenge. This line jumped to +7 for a while, dropped to +6 and is currently holding at +6.5.

The line for Chicago’s date with Washington should be on the top of your watch list this week. The Redskins opened as 1.5-point favorites and actually jumped to -2 not long after. Since then, the line is coming the other way. The game is currently at a pick ‘em and may bounce around for a while.

Hot and not

The Seahawks are seeing 77 percent of Sports Interaction’s bets at -6.5.

New England bettors are all over the Pats in their second meeting with the Jets this season. With New England set as a 4.5-point road favorite, 88 percent of our action is on the Pats.

Sports Interaction bettors have no faith left in the 0-6 Houston Texans anymore. Only 18 percent of our bets are coming in on Houston as the Texans visit the Chiefs as 6.5-point underdogs.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 7

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 7:

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (-1, 50)

Bears’ fast first quarters vs. Redskins’ slow starts

The Redskins’ 1-4 start to the season can be blamed on a lot of things: RG3’s wonky knee, a porous defense, Dan Snyder’s inability to feel feelings. But the finger should be aimed strictly at Washington’s flat starts. The Skins are constantly giving opponents a head start, giving up an NFL-worst 10 points in the first quarter this season. And they’re last in the league in first-half points allowed as well, spotting foes 19 points in the first 30 minutes of action.

Chicago hasn’t been that great at slowing down teams in the first two frames – giving up an average of 18.2 first-half points – but is at least offsetting that by scoring a league-high average of eight points in the first quarter and sitting behind only Denver in terms of first-half production, scoring 17 points per first half this year. Both the Redskins and Bears have tightened up on defense in the last two quarters, so this one could be decided by halftime.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 54.5)

Cowboys’ damaged defensive line vs. Eagles’ high-octane offense

The Cowboys may have won the game versus Washington last Sunday night, but Dallas suffered big losses on the defensive line, a spot that was already thin heading into Week 6. The Cowboys were without DEs DeMarcus Ware and George Selvie at practice this week and DT Jason Hatcher was limited, adding to the many MIA members of the Big D defensive line. The Cowboys subs stood tall against the Redskins but face a different pace in the Eagles’ attack this weekend.

Philadelphia’s non-stop offense could have an already depleted Dallas depth chart running on empty early in Lincoln Financial Field Sunday. The Eagles not only run one of the fastest paces in the NFL under new head coach Chip Kelly, but are healthy on the offensive line – a perk they didn’t have against Dallas last season. The Eagles finally seem comfortable in their new system, totaling 67 points in wins the past two weeks.

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-10, 46.5)

Browns’ rotten run defense vs. Packers’ default rushing attack

The Browns have been a surprise this season, entering Week 7 with a 3-3 mark. The defense is getting the pat on the back – ranked seventh in yards against – but those stats are a bit misleading heading into this Sunday’s game in Green Bay. Cleveland has been beat up on the ground this year, especially in the last two games. The Browns gave up 118 yards to Detroit last week and 155 yards in a win over Buffalo two weeks ago. Cleveland, which sits seventh in run defense, has allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL, watching opponents rumble into the end zone eight times.

The Packers’ potent air attack had its wings clipped with injuries to WR James Jones and Randall Cobb last Sunday. Green Bay is slowly starting to lean more and more on its ground game, with rookie RB Eddie Lacy rushing for 219 yards in his last two games since returning from a concussion. In fact, over the last three weeks, only two NFL teams have run for more yards per game than the Cheese Heads, who average 167.3 pick-ups on the ground during that span. With the passing game missing some key weapons, expect even more handoffs against a fragile Browns defense.

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5, 55.5)

Broncos’ broken offensive line vs. Colts’ LB Robert Mathis

The Broncos had issues on the offensive line before the season even started. Center Dan Koppen was lost for the year, then tackle Ryan Clady went down with a foot injury. Denver was doing OK patching up those holes before T Orlando Franklin left Week 6 with multiple injuries. That leaves the Broncos’ pass protection very thin against a jacked-up Colts defense, looking to spoil Peyton Manning’s Indy homecoming.

The one player looking to do the most damage versus Denver is Manning’s former teammate, LB Robert Mathis. The NFL sack leader – with 9.5 QB kills – has watched No. 18 operate plenty of times from the sideline. Manning isn’t the most mobile QB in the league, in fact he’s probably the least. Indianapolis has done a good job getting to opposing passers and could exploit a thin Broncos offensive line Sunday night.
Reply With Quote

[StarDust Bum]

NFL betting: Case Keenum to start at QB for Texans

Houston Texans head coach Gary Kubiak has announced that Case Keenum will be the starting quarterback against the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday.

The Texans are mired in a four-game losing streak and own an NFL-worst 0-6 ATS record.

The undrafted 25-year-old spent last season in the Texans practice squad and began the 2013 campaign as the team's third-string quarterback.

Starting QB Matt Schaub is nursing a leg injury and has been ruled out.

T.J. Yates was unimpressive in relief duty one week ago as the Texans were thumped by the St. Louis Rams 38-13. Yates was 12-of-17 for 98 yards and a pair of interceptions.

The Houston Texans face the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 7. The Chiefs are currently 6.5-point favorites.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Consensus Picks

October 20, 2013 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

4:25 PM Houston +6.5 1274 30.47% Kansas City -6.5 2907 69.53% View View

1:00 PM Cincinnati +1 1405 33.83% Detroit -1 2748 66.17% View View

1:00 PM Tampa Bay +6.5 1453 35.50% Atlanta -6.5 2640 64.50% View View

4:25 PM Cleveland +9.5 1660 42.97% Green Bay -9.5 2203 57.03% View View

1:00 PM St. Louis +7 1914 47.77% Carolina -7 2093 52.23% View View

1:00 PM San Diego -7.5 2100 52.87% Jacksonville +7.5 1872 47.13% View View

4:25 PM Baltimore +1 2355 57.61% Pittsburgh -1 1733 42.39% View View

1:00 PM Dallas +3 2334 58.88% Philadelphia -3 1630 41.12% View View

1:00 PM Buffalo +6 2119 60.63% Miami -6 1376 39.37% View View

1:00 PM Chicago -1 2584 65.09% Washington +1 1386 34.91% View View

8:30 PM Denver -6 2799 68.69% Indianapolis +6 1276 31.31% View View

4:05 PM San Francisco -3.5 2874 69.57% Tennessee +3.5 1257 30.43% View View

1:00 PM New England -3.5 3146 73.15% N.Y. Jets +3.5 1155 26.85% View View



Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

4:25 PM Baltimore 41.5 1251 47.01% Pittsburgh 41.5 1410 52.99% View View

1:00 PM New England 43.5 1313 48.47% N.Y. Jets 43.5 1396 51.53% View View

1:00 PM Chicago 48 1272 48.90% Washington 48 1329 51.10% View View

1:00 PM San Diego 44.5 1362 52.51% Jacksonville 44.5 1232 47.49% View View

4:25 PM Houston 39.5 1374 53.09% Kansas City 39.5 1214 46.91% View View

4:25 PM Cleveland 45.5 1458 55.80% Green Bay 45.5 1155 44.20% View View

1:00 PM Buffalo 43.5 1330 56.55% Miami 43.5 1022 43.45% View View

4:05 PM San Francisco 41 1488 57.61% Tennessee 41 1095 42.39% View View

1:00 PM Tampa Bay 43 1600 58.98% Atlanta 43 1113 41.02% View View

1:00 PM St. Louis 42.5 1570 59.63% Carolina 42.5 1063 40.37% View View

1:00 PM Cincinnati 46.5 1813 66.65% Detroit 46.5 907 33.35% View View

1:00 PM Dallas 55 1855 66.80% Philadelphia 55 922 33.20% View View

8:30 PM Denver 55.5 2228 76.20% Indianapolis 55.5 696 23.80% View View

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, October 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta -6.5 500

Atlanta - Under 43 500

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Washington +1 500 POD # 3

Washington - Under 47.5 500

Dallas - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia -3 500 POD # 2

Philadelphia - Over 55 500

New England - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Jets +3.5 500

N.Y. Jets - Under 43 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Miami -6 500

Miami - Over 44 500

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET Carolina -7.5 500 POD # 1

Carolina - Over 42.5 500

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati +2.5 500 POD # 4

Detroit - Under 46.5 500

San Diego - 1:00 PM ET San Diego -7.5 500 POD # 5

Jacksonville - Under 44.5 500

[Kaptain]

good luck today BUM....nice call on your CFB GOM yesterday.....I too had em AS A pod........keep em coming podna

[StarDust Bum]

Afternoon Games:


San Francisco 0 0th Tennessee +3.5 500 POD # 2

Tennessee 0 Over 41 500

Houston - 4:25 PM ET Houston +7 500 POD # 1

Kansas City - Under 39.5 500

Cleveland - 4:25 PM ET Cleveland +9.5 500 POD # 3

Green Bay - Over 45 500

Baltimore - 4:25 PM ET Baltimore +1 500

Pittsburgh - Under 41.5 500 POD # 4

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Broncos at Colts

October 18, 2013


DENVER BRONCOS (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Denver -7 & 57
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -7 & 57

Peyton Manning returns to Indianapolis Sunday night where his Broncos look to stay perfect when they take on Andrew Luck and the Colts.

Denver heads into this showdown after defeating the Jaguars only 35-19 despite being four touchdown favorites. The Colts, on the other hand, snapped a three-game win streak when they came up short in San Diego on Monday night, losing 19-9 to the Chargers.

Despite failing to cover against Jacksonville, The Broncos 3-2-1 ATS this season with all six games finishing Over the total. Indianapolis is 3-3 ATS, with the Under going 2-4 in those contests. The Colts have prevailed (SU and ATS) in five straight meetings with Denver, winning these contests by 14.4 PPG, but that should be taken with a grain of salt as Peyton Manning is now a member of the Broncos.

The last game between these two teams was played in 2010 where Indy prevailed 27-13 at home. Since becoming the coach of Denver, John Fox is 14-8 ATS (64%) as a favorite, including 10-2 ATS (83%) when favored by between 3.5 and 9.5 points. But in the past two seasons, the Colts are 7-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season and 6-0 ATS when following an SU loss.

Both teams could be getting key defensive players back on the field for this one with Broncos star LB Von Miller (suspension) and Indianapolis S LaRon Landry (ankle) both expected to play.

Denver was expected to completely blow out the Jaguars, but somewhat struggled in the game as it ended up winning by 16. Peyton Manning’s worst game of the season was as good as many quarterbacks’ best efforts as he finished with 295 yards (6.9 YPA), two touchdowns and one interception. However, he still has thrown for 2,179 yards (363 YPG, 9.1 YPA), 22 TD and 2 INT this season. RB Knowshon Moreno rushed for just 42 yards, but tallied three touchdowns in the victory. Moreno now has 373 yards on 4.7 YPC and seven touchdowns on the year. WR Wes Welker added six catches for 63 yards and a touchdown, which gives him an NFL-high eight scores on the year. He has been one of Manning’s favorite targets in the red zone this season along with TE Julius Thomas who has seven touchdowns himself. But not to be forgotten are WR Demaryius Thomas (team-high 528 receiving yards) and WR Eric Decker, who is second on the team with 477 receiving yards.

Although Denver’s defense picked off Chad Henne twice last game, this is still the worst passing defense in the league, allowing the Jags to roll up 303 passing yards which actually lowered their NFL-worst 337.7 passing YPG allowed on 8.1 yards per attempt (3rd-most in NFL) this year. They will need to be much more improved on Sunday night going against Andrew Luck, and they hope the addition of pass-rushing star LB Von Miller (30 sacks in 31 career games) can pressure Luck into some poor throws. But as bad as the secondary has played, the Broncos, do have the league’s best rushing defense, giving up a league-low 69.8 rushing YPG with 3.15 YPC (2nd in NFL). This run stuffing should continue against a Colts team that rushed for a season-low 74 yards against the Chargers.

Indianapolis is coming off of a disappointing loss to the Chargers on Monday in which they were favored in the game, but possessed the football for only 21:29. QB Andrew Luck was unable to throw for a touchdown and went 18-of-30 for 202 yards (6.7 YPA) and 1 INT. He should fare better against the worst passing defense in the NFL. The same cannot be said for the running back tandem of Trent Richardson (3.1 YPC this year) and Donald Brown (NFL-best 7.8 YPC this year), who will be facing the best run-stopping defense in the league. Last week they combined for 55 yards on 13 carries (4.2 YPC) but didn't do much as the Chargers were on the field so long. But the team has missed RB Ahmad Bradshaw (4.5 YPC, 2 TD), who is out for the year with a neck injury. WR Reggie Wayne was the only player who showed up offense for Indianapolis last week, catching five passes for 88 yards. He was the only Colts player to surpass 55 yards from scrimmage on the day. Wayne now has 33 receptions for 453 yards and two touchdowns this season.

The Colts defense played well in the game, making timely stops in the red zone. They didn’t cause any turnovers, but they did sack Philip Rivers twice. Indianapolis owns the league’s fifth best passing defense, allowing just 205.7 yards per game, but its run defense has been steamrolled all season, surrendering 132.0 rushing YPG, which is the second-most in the league. Indy has also shined on third-down defense (35.5%, 7th-best in NFL), which is a big reason it ranks fifth in the league in scoring defense (16.3 PPG allowed). The problem for the Colts is they now face a Denver offense leads the NFL in total offense (476 YPG), passing offense (361 YPG), scoring offense (44.2 PPG), red-zone efficiency (82.1%) and third-down conversion rate (57.5%). They will certainly have their work cut out for them in this one.

[StarDust Bum]

2013 SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SCHEDULE

Week Matchup Line Score ATS

1 N.Y. Giants at Dallas -3.5, 49.5 36-31 Favorite-Over

2 San Francisco at Seattle -2.5, 44.5 29-3 Favorite-Under

3 Chicago at Pittsburgh -2.5, 40.5 40-23 Favorite-Over

4 New England at Atlanta -3, 50 30-23 Underdog-Over

5 Houston at San Francisco -4, 44 34-3 Favorite-Under

6 Washington at Dallas -6, 53.5 31-16 Favorite-Under

7 Denver at Indianapolis - - -

8 Green Bay at Minnesota - - -

9 Indianapolis at Houston - - -

10 Dallas at New Orleans - - -

11 Green Bay at N.Y. Giants - - -

12 Denver at New England - - -

13 N.Y. Giants at Washington - - -

14 Atlanta at Green Bay - - -

15 Cincinnati at Pittsburgh - - -

16 New England at Baltimore - - -

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night POD:


Denver - 8:30 PM ET Denver -6 500 POD # 1

Indianapolis - Under 55 500 POD # 2