The Bum's College Basketball Best Bets Thru March Madess !

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Early Action

March 20, 2013

The 2013 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament officially got underway this past Tuesday from Dayton with two games in the First Four Round, but starting this Thursday afternoon things really heat up with the first eight games in the Round of 64. To help get you ready for all the action the following is a brief betting preview of all eight games with lines provided by 5Dimes.

Midwest Regional – The Palace, Detroit (CBS, 12:15 p.m. ET)

No. 14 Valparaiso Crusaders (26-7) vs. No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (25-8)
Pointspread: Michigan State -10 ½
Total: 126 ½

The Crusaders earned its spot in the Midwest Region by winning the Horizon League Tournament after already claiming the regular season title. They went 9-1 straight-up in their last 10 games but were just 5-4-1 against the spread. The total stayed UNDER in four of their last five games. Valpo is averaging 71.7 points a game while shooting 48.9 percent from the field.

Michigan State bowed out of the Big Ten Tournament with a 61-58 loss to Ohio State as a 1 ½-point underdog. It had won six of its previous nine games while going 4-4-1 ATS. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss. Look for Keith Appling and Gary Harris to lead the way after combining for an average of 26.5 points a game this season.

East Regional – Rupp Arena, Lexington (tru TV, 12:40 p.m. ET)

No. 11 Bucknell Bison (28-5) vs. No. 6 Butler Bulldogs (26-8)
Pointspread: Butler 3 ½
Total: 122

Bucknell claimed the Patriot League title to punch its ticket to the Big Dance. It comes into this matchup riding a seven-game winning streak but it has failed to cover in its last three games with a posted line. The Bison are averaging 67.3 points while holding their opponents to just 57.7 points a game.

The Bulldogs are back in the NCAA Tournament as an at-large entry after posting an 11-5 SU record in their first season in the Atlantic 10. They went just 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS in their last seven games and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six. The top scorer for Butler this season has been Rotnei Clarke with an average of 16.7 points a game.

West Regional – EnergySolutions Arena, Salt Lake City (TBS, 1:40 p.m. ET)

No. 9 Wichita State Shockers (26-8) vs. No. 8 Pittsburgh Panthers (24-8)
Pointspread: Pittsburgh -4 ½
Total: 118 ½

The Shockers earned their at-large bid in the Midwest Region with a 12-6 record in the Missouri Valley Conference but come in with just two SU wins in their last five games and a 1-4 record ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of their last six games. To advance, Wichita State will need a big game from Cleanthony Early and Carl Hall, who combined for 26.4 points and 12.3 rebounds this year.

Pittsburgh finished fourth in the Big East regular season standings at 12-6 and came up short in the tournament with a 62-59 loss to Syracuse as a 2 ½-point favorite. The Panthers are just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games and the total has gone OVER in their last three. They are averaging 69.6 points a game while shooting a very respectable 47.5 percent from the field.

Midwest Regional – HP Pavilion, San Jose (TNT, 2:10 p.m. ET)

No.13 New Mexico State Aggies (24-10) vs. No.4 Saint Louis Billikens (27-6)
Pointspread: St. Louis -9
Total: 122

New Mexico State rolled through the Western Athletic Tournament to gain its automatic bid. It went 8-2 SU down the stretch but failed to cover in five of the 10 games. The total stayed UNDER in its last three games. Daniel Mullings led the Aggies in scoring with 14 points a game with Bandja Sy chipping-in 11.7 points and a team-high 7.3 rebounds.

The Billikens are 15-1 SU in their last 16 games and have been extremely profitable to wager on during this run with an identical record ATS. They rolled through the A 10 Tournament after winning the regular season title with a conference record of 13-3. St. Louis has five players averaging over nine points a game led by Dwayne Evans’ team-high 13.7 points.

Midwest Regional – The Palace, Detroit (CBS, 2:45 p.m. ET)

No. 11 St. Mary’s Gaels (28-6) vs. No. 6 Memphis Tigers (30-4)
Pointspread: St. Mary's -1
Total: 138

The Gaels already got their feet wet in tournament action with a solid 67-54 victory over Middle Tennessee as 2 ½-point favorites in Tuesday night’s First Four Round. They went 16-3 SU in the West Coast Conference this season with all three losses coming to Gonzaga. The player to watch on this team is Matthew Dellavedova, who is averaging 15.8 points game.

Memphis cruised through its Conference USA schedule this season with a perfect 16-0 SU record, but it is just 5-4 ATS in its last nine games. The total has gone OVER in its last four outings. The Tigers have been a tough out all year long behind an offense that is averaging 75.9 points a game while shooting 47.9 percent from the field

West Regional – Rupp Arena, Lexington (tru TV, 3:10 p.m. ET)

No. 14 Davidson College Wildcats (26-7) vs. No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles (23-8)
Pointspread: Marquette 3 ½
Total: 133

Davidson may be a 14 seed but it brings a 17-game winning streak into this matchup that culminated in a Southern Conference Championship. The Wildcats are 3-1 ATS in their last four games and the total has stayed UNDER in three of their last five games. They are averaging 73.7 points led by Jake Cohen and De’Mon Brooks, who combine for 28.6 points a game.

The Golden Eagles bowed out of the Big East Tournament with a 73-65 loss to Notre Dame as three-point favorites. They are 4-2 SU in their last five games but just 2-4 ATS and the total has gone OVER in four of the games. Marquette is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a SU loss but only 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 non-conference games.

West Regional – EnergySolutions Arena, Salt Lake City (TBS, 4:10 p.m. ET)

No. 16 Southern University A&M Jaguars (23-9) vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (31-2)
Pointspread: Gonzaga -21 ½
Total: 126 ½

By virtue of winning the Southwestern Athletic Tournament crown, the Jaguars earned the right to try and make NCAA Tournament history by taking out a top seed. They come in with seven SU wins in their last eight games and are averaging 67.7 points a game while holding opponents to 58.4 points on the other end of the court.

The pressure will be on the Bulldogs as not only a one seed in this tournament but as the No.1 ranked team in the country. They have been opened at 10/1 to keep their current 14-game winning streak going for six more games all the way to a national title. Gonzaga has not been as reliable ATS with a 5-3-1 record in its last nine games. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of those games.

Midwest Regional – HP Pavilion, San Jose (TNT, 4:40 p.m.)

No. 12 Oregon Ducks (26-8) vs. No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (24-8)
Pointspread: Oklahoma State -3
Total: 134 ½

Oregon claimed this season’s Pac-12 Tournament title with a 78-69 win over UCLA as a 1 1/2-point favorite. While it covered in that game, it went just 2-5-1 ATS in its previous eight games and the total has gone OVER in six of its last nine games. The Ducks have a trio of solid scorers in EJ Singler, Carlos Emory and Damyean Dotson, who are each averaging around 11 points a game.

The Cowboys came up short in their bid to win the Big 12 Tournament with a 68-57 loss to Kansas State as 1 ½-point underdogs. They went 5-2 SU in their last seven games and 3-3-1 ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games. Oklahoma State has four players scoring in double figures led by Marcus Smart (15.4 points) and Markel Brown (15.4 points).

[StarDust Bum]

Big Dance Breakdown

March 20, 2013

By Selection Sunday standards, this season's rendition was a bit tame. No real surprises in the mix; few complaints from the masses. For the most part (with a possible exception or two that we'll note in a moment), the Committee seems to have gotten the 68-team field right for once.

Still, the perception that the process is anything other than a subjective act continues to be forwarded by the Selection Committee, when nothing could be further from the truth. Among the TV talking heads on Sunday, only ESPN's Jay Bilas was inclined to question the Committee's process because of what appeared to be some inconsistencies both in seeding and in eventual criteria for separating teams at the cut line.

For us, we conceded long ago that the Big Ten was going to be given a wide berth by the Committee, though upon closer inspection we wonder why. Moreover, it was as if the Committee simply borrowed the talking points from sorts such as Andy Katz and Joe Lunardi about the SEC being in such a down cycle this season. Regarding the latter, however, we detected some inconsistencies with the Committee and, for that matter, the majority of media talking heads who have similarly downgraded the SEC this season.

We have long believed that the selection process, while tedious, is also mostly overblown by the media and the Committee itself, which guards the secrets of its 10-man enclave in Indianapolis as if it is dealing with national security. There are a handful of former national defense secretaries like Bob Gates and Leon Panetta who are looking for things to do these days; perhaps they should be included into next year's Big Dance Selection Committee mix to maintain that cloud of secrecy.

For us, we have to wonder about the sharpness of the Committee when it violated one of its supposed tenets and slotted regular-season rematches (supposedly a no-no) at the top of a sub-regional round. The reaction of the CBS crew (Doug Gottlieb in particular) confirmed that oversight when UNLV and Cal were unveiled as a Thursday matchup in San Jose. The Runnin' Rebels and Golden Bears played a regular-season game back on December 9 at Berkeley, and their rematch was one of the questions addressed to Committee Chairman Mike Bobinski, who fumbled around for a proper answer.

Apparently, according to Bobinski, the Committee had boxed itself in and had no alternative but to put UNLV and Cal against one another. Which we find curious, as with a simple paper, pencil, and notes, we have been able to seed a projected NCAA field for the last two months while avoiding rematches at the top of sub-regional action. All it takes is a pencil with an eraser to move some of the teams around to prevent what is supposedly a Big Dance no-no.

The wide space granted to the Big Ten might also be a bit misplaced. Especially when referring to Minnesota, whose 5-11 record over its last 16 games was never mentioned once by one of the talking heads that instead seemed to be comparing the Gophers to Bill Russell's old USF title teams when discussing what a fundamental mismatch it would be for UCLA when facing the "mighty" Golden Gophers in the first round.

Upon further inspection of information from the first half of the season, we acknowledge some of the Big Ten's impressive performances, but it's not an airtight case for Big Ten superiority. Wisconsin, after all, lost almost every challenging non-league game (vs. Florida, Creighton, Virginia, and Marquette...three of those losses by double-digit margins) it played. Ohio State's non-conference victims list is dotted with Rhode Island, Savannah State, Northern Kentucky, and Winthrop; the Buckeyes lost when stepping up to face Duke and Kansas. No shame there, but similar criteria when used to evaluate teams from other leagues was apparently overlooked.

Indiana had two significant non-conference games; it beat Georgeotwn in OT in Brooklyn before the Hoyas hit stride, and lost vs. Butler. The win over North Carolina came long before the Tar Heels hit stride later in the season. Michigan State beat Kansas and several lesser entities but lost vs. UConn and Miami-Florida. While Gonzaga was disparaged by several talking heads for its loss to Illinois and a so-so non-league slate (which was not true, as the Zags went 5-0 vs. the Big 12), Michigan got lots of credit for its win over Kansas State and a pair of other successes vs. Pitt and N.C. State teams that were no better than the eighth-line teams in Dance seeding. Iowa beat Iowa State, but was whipped by Wichita State and Virginia Tech. Illinois won at Maui and dealt Gonzaga one of its two regular-season defeats, but was also routed in St. Louis by SEC rep Missouri.

Speaking of the SEC, we have to wonder why the Committee and the talking heads seemed to absolve Florida of its association with the league and rewarded the Gators a three-seed in the Dance while downgrading the rest of the loop. Florida lost every game it played that was decided by single digits and dropped five SEC games played away from Gainesville, including the conference tourney finale in Nashville vs. Ole Miss. If the SEC was so terrible, why did the Gators keep losing league games, as did supposedly highly-regarded Missouri, which lost seven of nine road games in the league as well as a pre-conference date at UCLA? But, for some reason, the Committee made exceptions for Florida and, to a lesser extent Missouri, as did the talking heads by refusing to clump those two with the rest of the loop.

There were also inconsistencies (as ESPN's Bilas noted) about the inclusion of Middle Tennessee as one of the last at-large teams (or, apparently, the last at-large, as Committee Chair Bobinski seemed to indicate) at the expense of a Tennessee, which was hot down the stretch. Bobinski again stumbled for answers other than noting that MTSU had beaten the same Ole Miss team that had toppled the Vols twice. The Blue Raiders, however, lost other challenging non-league assignments vs. Florida, Akron, and Belmont.

We're on record as having no problem with mid-majors like the Sun Belt catching an occasional break from the Selection Committee. And Tennessee could have probably moved to the safe side of the cut line had it beaten Alabama in the quarters of the SEC tourney last week in Nashville. Still, we might have picked the Vols over MTSU.

Elsewhere, there were questions related to seeding, especially the apparent downgrading of the Pac-12, where Oregon and Cal both received lower-than-expected 12 seeds (although Bobinski noted that each was originally an 11 seed, and was moved down a line in the procedural "bump" the Committee reserves in order to balance the field). Still, we believe this is really much ado about nothing, as 12 seeds usually have a better deal than eight or nine-seeds that are almost assuredly going to have to face regional number one seeds in the round of 32, as opposed to a more-beatable 4 or 5 seed. Although a downgraded seeding can dent the psyche of a team, in fact it often acts as a blessing in disguise. The fact that a 12 seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in all but three years since the modern seeding of the tourney began in 1985 (a much better percentage than eight of nine seeds) is a confirmation that sometimes it can be better to be a bit downgraded at the outset.

We also wonder about all of the discussion regarding the top regional seeds, which seems like a manufactured storyline to us. Practically speaking, there is effectively no difference between a one and a two seed, except that a handful of 2's have been knocked off by 15 seeds in the last three decades. Whether Gonzaga is a one or two seed is going to have little impact on the proceedings save for being a nice feather in the Zags' hat.

The bottom line? The Selection Committee is comprised of humans, and they make the decisions, not the machines. We just wish that more members would confirm the selection process as a subjective exercise. And we'd also suggest a sequester of the Committee members from exposure to the TV talking heads who so seem to influence their thought process.

ANY GEORGE MASONS OR BUTLERS IN THE HOUSE?

The unexpected runs of mid-majors such as George Mason and Butler (and Virginia Commonwealth in 2011) to the Final Four in recent years have prompted us to offer a "mid-major alert" each of the past few seasons, highlighting teams to watch that could emerge and deliver a similar run in the Dance. Following are a handful of those sides that we would watch closely...

Davidson (SUR 26-7; seeded 14th in East)...Among all of the mid-major entries, we suspect the Wildcats might be the most complete and dangerous team. All starters returned from last year's side that made it to the Dance and gave Louisville a fight in the sub-regionals. Well-balanced, with six players who led the team in scoring in at least one game this season. A unique weapon in Ryan Kelly-like, Euro-style 6-10 F Jake Cohen (14.8 ppg), and a matchup nightmare in 6-7 swingman De'Mon Brooks (13.8 ppg), who can post-up smaller defenders. Team FT shooting (80.1%) is the best in the nation; G Nik Cochran (94.1%) tops all. Underrated, vet HC Bob McKillop has taken several teams to the Dance that did not include Stephen Curry. Pushed New Mexico to the limit in a challenging non-conference slate that also included Gonzaga and Duke. Junior-senior dominated roster that returned eight of nine top contributors from last season...the sort of team makeup that suggests it can at least be a dangerous underdog.

Belmont (SUR 26-6; seeded 11th in West)...No longer a well-kept secret, vet HC Rick Byrd's Bruins make a return visit return to the Dance after moving from the Atlantic Sun to the Ohio Valley. Electric backcourt featuring senior G's Ian Clark (18.3 ppg & 54.3% FGs) and Kerron Johnson (13.5 ppg). But balanced beyond the backcourt, with four starters scoring in double figures. Whipped South Dakota State at Nashville in December; other notable wins over Stanford and Ohio. Not big (no starter taller than 6'7) and probably a bit too perimeter-oriented to make a Mason, Butler, or VCU-type run, but Byrd is due for a win in the Dance after losing in five previous tries. Arizona is forewarned for the Thursday game in Salt Lake City.

South Dakota State (SUR 25-9; seeded 13th in South)...Back for another try after competitive loss vs. Baylor in the sub-regionals last year. Four starters returned from that tourney team, led by hot-shooting G Nate Wolters (22.7 ppg), who exploded for 53 points in a Feb. 7 win at IPFW. Wolters is more than a shooter, also a drive-and-kick penetrator who can count upon a squadron of dagger-throwing teammates including F Jordan Dykstra and G Chad White, both 43% beyond the arc. Efficient on the attack end by limiting TO's, this is still a perimeter-oriented squad that has some defensive liabilities. But could be a very tricky matchup nonetheless, especially vs. a team that is lax in defending the arc. Famously won at The Pit vs. New Mexico in December after an arduous 1200-mile bus ride from Nashville (after the Jackrabbits lost to Belmont) necessitated by weather conditions that grounded air travel. Rumor has it the team made at least one Waffle House stop en route to Albuquerque.

Bucknell (SUR 28-5; seeded 11th in East)...The alma mater of CBS head honcho Les Moonves, the Bison could be the latest in a string of Patriot League reps that have made some noise in recent Dances, including a year ago when Lehigh famously dumped Duke in the sub-regional. The Bison returned four starters from last year's NIT team, including 6-11 sr. C Mike Muscala, one of the best-kept secrets in the country after scoring 19.1 ppg and hauling in 11 rpg this season. Which means that foes are going to have to vigorously defend the post vs. Bucknell. The "outside" part of the inside-outside balance is courtesy of capable Gs 6-5 jr. Cameron Ayers (12.7 ppg) and sr. Bryson Johnson (11.5 ppg), both proficient shooting 3s. Notable wins this season include Purdue, La Salle, and New Mexico State.

Northwestern State (SUR 23-8, seeded 14th in South)...KO'd favored Stephen F. Austin in the Southland Tourney finale, although that was the Demons' second win in three tries vs. the Lumberjacks. Led the nation in scoring offense for much of the season thanks a relentless lineup that goes 10-deep; top scorer F DeQuan Hicks (14.2 ppg) usually comes off the bench. Defense a bit suspect, as we noted in its BracketBuster loss at Niagara, but NW can prove an awkward matchup due to its go-go style for HC Mike McConathy. Beat La Tech in early December and was a close loser at Oklahoma and LSU.

Montana (SUR 25-6, seeded 13th in East)...The Grizzlies were functioning minus top scorer F Mathias Ward (14.8 ppg; foot injury) for the last month of the season, this after high-scoring G Will Cherry (14.5 ppg) missed the first month of the campaign with his own broken foot. Cherry also missed some late-season action with another foot injury, but was back in the lineup for the Big Sky Tourney and win in the finale vs. dangerous Weber State. With Cherry and Ward absent for long stretches this season, F Kareem Jamar (14.2 ppg) stepped into the breach and was named Big Sky MVP. Lost four games early with Cherry out of starting lineup due to injury, but sent a warning shot in the BracketBuster at Davidson, pushing the Wildcats into OT despite being minus Ward and with Cherry re-injuring his foot in the 2nd half. Repeat Big Dance qualifier after losing to Wisconsin in sub-regional action last season.

Let's hope we're still talking about one or more of these teams next week for the Sweet 16; the tourney is always a bit more memorable when at last one Cinderella side emerges!

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

According to Forbes Magazine, the six most valuable college basketball programs:

6) Indiana Hoosiers are worth $21.8M; LY’s profit, $14.4M.

5) Ohio State Buckeyes are worth $23.1M; LY’s profit, $13.6M.

4) Kentucky Wildcats are worth $32.1M; LY’s profit, $19.9M.

3) North Carolina Tar Heels are worth $32.8M; LY’s profit, $19.9M.

2) Kansas Jayhawks are worth $32.9M; LY’s profit, $19.9M.

1) Louisville Cardinals are worth $38.5M; LY’s profit: $24.5M.


*****

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Welcome to the best four days of the year.......

13) Why do I get the idea that for the next four days, unless something really big happens, Joe Biden is running the country?

12) So when Robert Morris beat Kentucky at home Tuesday, it set off one of the better court rushes of alltime; ESPN interviewed coach Andy Toole on the court about what the win means. Would’ve been awesome if he had just looked into the camera and said truthfully,

“It means I’m getting a better job!!!”

This is the unusual case of a team being better off in the NIT than the NCAA’s, they got lot of extra publicity out of beating Kentucky.

11) Robert Morris’ win will set non-conference scheduling back, as the big boys will turn their nose up at true road games, even moreso than they do now. When was the last time Kentucky played a true road game in a gym that seats less than 5,000 people?

10) Since 1993, Louisville is 3-11-1 vs spread in its first tournament game; this is just their second #1 seed- they beat Morehead State by 20 (-20.5) in first round, the other time they were a 1-seed.

9) So couple years after the Carmelo Anthony trade, did one side get the better of it? Knicks are 39-26, but have oldest roster in league, they’ve lost four of last five games and are looking into signing Hawkeye Pierce to take care of their MASH unit full of injured players.

Denver is 47-22, has won 13 games in a row and appears to be a legit threat in the West. I’m thinking Denver got the better of the deal.

Feel bad for Mike Woodson though; he’s a very good coach saddled with an old team that ain’t getting healthier as the playoffs approach.

8) There are 21 Division I basketball schools in Texas, none made the tournament, first time Lone Star State got blanked since 1977, when it was a 32-team tourney. Damn, I was in high school back then.

7) Youngstown State made an astounding 18-35 behind arc in its 99-87 win over defenseless Oakland Tuesday. LMU made 21 treys vs Michigan in second round of the 1990 tournament, and from what I can tell, that is the most treys any team has made in a D-I college game.

6) Hockey legend Bobby Orr, who was Wayne Gretzky before Gretzky, but as a defenseman, turned 65 this week. Orr was one of my first childhood heroes; boy could he skate!!!

Knee injuries shortened his career. I met him in 1986; very nice man, but he could hardly walk, his knees were so bad. Orr turned the Bruins around almost single-handedly; he is still revered in Boston.

5) An umpire broke his hand in a spring training game, so one of the other umps went in to put his chest protector on to take his place behind the plate. Veteran ump Tim McClelland, in order to keep the exhibition game moving, called balls/strikes from behind the pitcher for four batters, until the other ump was ready to go. That’s what they do in Little League!!!

4) NFL might play the Pro Bowl by having captains choose up sides, like we did on the playgrounds as kids. Whatever, I’m still not watching. Choosing up sides would be intriguing for the NBA All-Star Game, though.

3) Listening to Bill Walton working SF Austin-Stanford NIT game Tuesday, it occurred to me that I’d love to be as positive about everything as he is. Not everyone can be that way, but I enjoy his TV work very much.

2) Stephen F Austin University is in Nacogdoches, TX; they lost Southland finals to Northwestern State, which is in Natchitoches, LA.

Say that three times fast.

1) The next four days are among my most favorite of the year; I plan on doing nothing but watching basketball, eating and talking to friends about basketball and eating. Enjoy the tournament!!!!

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Akron vs. VCU
The Rams look to build on their 11-1 ATS record in their last 12 NCAA tournament games. VCU is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rams favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: VCU (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, MARCH 21

Game 707-708: North Carolina A&T vs. Louisville (6:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina A&T 50.898; Louisville 78.019
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 27; 119
Vegas Line: Louisville by 25 1/2; 123 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-25 1/2); Under

Game 709-710: Missouri vs. Colorado State (9:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 67.227; Colorado State 66.212
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 1; 145
Vegas Line: Missouri by 3; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+3); Over

Game 711-712: Davidson vs. Marquette (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 64.840; Marquette 66.761
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 2; 128
Vegas Line: Marquette by 3 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (+3 1/2); Under

Game 713-714: Bucknell vs. Butler (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bucknell 60.135; Butler 62.042
Dunkel Line: Butler by 2; 127
Vegas Line: Butler by 3 1/2; 122
Dunkel Pick: Bucknell (+3 1/2); Over

Game 715-716: Valparaiso vs. Michigan State (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 61.969; Michigan State 73.335
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 11 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 10 1/2; 126
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-10 1/2); Over

Game 717-718: St. Mary's vs. Memphis (2:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's 69.277; Memphis 67.195
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's by 2; 134
Vegas Line: Memphis by 1; 138
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (+1); Under

Game 719-720: Akron vs. VCU (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 58.834; VCU 68.177
Dunkel Line: VCU by 9 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: VCU by 7 1/2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: VCU (-7 1/2); Under

Game 721-722: South Dakota State vs. Michigan (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 59.139; Michigan 68.777
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 9 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Michigan by 11 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (+11 1/2); Over

Game 723-724: Southern vs. Gonzaga (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern 52.744; Gonzaga 72.285
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 19 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 22 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern (+22 1/2); Under

Game 725-726: Wichita State vs. Pittsburgh (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 65.119; Pittsburgh 67.699
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 118 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (+4 1/2); Over

Game 727-728: Harvard vs. New Mexico (9:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 56.144; New Mexico 66.199
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 10; 130
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 11 1/2; 125
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+11 1/2); Over

Game 729-730: Belmont vs. Arizona (7:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 62.630; Arizona 65.486
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3; 136
Vegas Line: Arizona by 4 1/2; 140
Dunkel Pick: Belmont (+4 1/2); Under

Game 731-732: Oregon vs. Oklahoma State (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 65.241; Oklahoma State 66.443
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 1; 138
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 3 1/2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+3 1/2); Over

Game 733-734: New Mexico State vs. St. Louis (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 61.954; St. Louis 72.249
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 10 1/2; 118
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 8 1/2; 122
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-8 1/2); Under

Game 735-736: California vs. UNLV (7:27 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 62.529; UNLV 67.049
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: UNLV by 2 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-2 1/2)

Game 737-738: Montana vs. Syracuse (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 56.818; Syracuse 68.500
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 11 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 13; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montana (+13); Over

Game 739-740: Denver at Maryland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 64.696; Maryland 71.146
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 6 1/2; 124
Vegas Line: Maryland by 3 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-3 1/2); Under
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[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 21

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MISSOURI (23 - 10) vs. COLORADO ST (25 - 8) - 3/21/2013, 9:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
COLORADO ST is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DAVIDSON (26 - 7) vs. MARQUETTE (23 - 8) - 3/21/2013, 3:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARQUETTE is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
MARQUETTE is 187-144 ATS (+28.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 111-83 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
MARQUETTE is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 67-38 ATS (+25.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUCKNELL (28 - 5) vs. BUTLER (26 - 8) - 3/21/2013, 12:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUTLER is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in March games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
BUTLER is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
BUTLER is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 60-40 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
BUTLER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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VALPARAISO (26 - 7) vs. MICHIGAN ST (25 - 8) - 3/21/2013, 12:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
VALPARAISO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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AKRON (26 - 6) vs. VA COMMONWEALTH (26 - 8) - 3/21/2013, 9:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in first round tournament games since 1997.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
AKRON is 33-22 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
AKRON is 33-22 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
AKRON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
AKRON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
AKRON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
AKRON is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
AKRON is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) after a conference game this season.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
AKRON is 1-0 against the spread versus VA COMMONWEALTH over the last 3 seasons
VA COMMONWEALTH is 1-0 straight up against AKRON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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S DAKOTA ST (25 - 9) vs. MICHIGAN (26 - 7) - 3/21/2013, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 54-38 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 54-38 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 45-30 ATS (+12.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SOUTHERN U (23 - 9) vs. GONZAGA (31 - 2) - 3/21/2013, 4:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GONZAGA is 57-37 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
GONZAGA is 1-0 straight up against SOUTHERN U over the last 3 seasons

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WICHITA ST (26 - 8) vs. PITTSBURGH (24 - 8) - 3/21/2013, 1:40 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HARVARD (19 - 9) vs. NEW MEXICO (29 - 5) - 3/21/2013, 9:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) in March games since 1997.
HARVARD is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing with 7 or more days rest since 1997.
HARVARD is 85-117 ATS (-43.7 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
NEW MEXICO is 43-20 ATS (+21.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 43-20 ATS (+21.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 since 1997.
NEW MEXICO is 38-15 ATS (+21.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
NEW MEXICO is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 16-8 ATS (+7.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NEW MEXICO is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
NEW MEXICO is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
HARVARD is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BELMONT (26 - 6) vs. ARIZONA (25 - 7) - 3/21/2013, 7:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BELMONT is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
BELMONT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
BELMONT is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
BELMONT is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OREGON (26 - 8) vs. OKLAHOMA ST (24 - 8) - 3/21/2013, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
OKLAHOMA ST is 160-125 ATS (+22.5 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
OKLAHOMA ST is 92-61 ATS (+24.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
OKLAHOMA ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
OKLAHOMA ST is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW MEXICO ST (24 - 10) vs. SAINT LOUIS (27 - 6) - 3/21/2013, 2:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAINT LOUIS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after a conference game this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------


CALIFORNIA (20 - 11) vs. UNLV (25 - 9) - 3/21/2013, 7:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest this season.
CALIFORNIA is 94-68 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
CALIFORNIA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season.
UNLV is 26-39 ATS (-16.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UNLV is 26-39 ATS (-16.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UNLV is 22-33 ATS (-14.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
UNLV is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UNLV is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UNLV is 2-0 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
UNLV is 2-0 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MONTANA (25 - 6) vs. SYRACUSE (26 - 9) - 3/21/2013, 9:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTANA is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MONTANA is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MONTANA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in March games this season.
MONTANA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MONTANA is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Thursday, March 21

NCAA Tournament Betting Trends

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
North Carolina A&T vs. Louisville, 6:50 ET TBS
North Carolina A&T:
Louisville:

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Missouri vs. Colorado State, 9:20 ET TBS
Missouri: 17-6 ATS off an ATS loss
Colorado State: 5-13 ATS off 5+ games committing 14 or less turnovers

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Davidson vs. Marquette, 3:10 ET TRUTV
Davidson: 3-10 ATS off an ATS win
Marquette: 9-0 ATS off a conference loss

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Bucknell vs. Butler, 12:40 ET TRUTV
Bucknell: 2-10 ATS off 4+ games committing 14 or less turnovers
Butler: 17-3 ATS playing on a neutral court

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Valparaiso vs. Michigan State, 12:15 ET CBS
Valparaiso: 3-11 ATS off 4+ wins
Michigan State: 22-8 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
TBD vs. Memphis, 2:45 ET TRUTV
TBD:
Memphis:

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Akron vs. Virginia Commonwealth, 9:45 ET CBS
Akron: 14-4 ATS in tournament games
VA Commonwealth: 0-7 ATS away off a SU loss

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
South Dakota State vs. Michigan, 7:15 ET CBS
South Dakota State: 20-10 ATS off BB conference games
Michigan: 5-12 ATS off BB conference games

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Southern vs. Gonzaga, 4:10 ET TBS
Southern: 1-6 ATS off BB games scoring 30 or less first-half points
Gonzaga: 8-1 Under off a conference game

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Wichita State vs. Pittsburgh, 1:40 ET TBS
Wichita State: 3-18 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less
Pittsburgh: 10-2 ATS away off ATS losses in 2 of their last 3 games

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Harvard vs. New Mexico, 9:50 ET TNT
Harvard: 6-16 ATS playing with 7+ days rest
New Mexico: 10-0 ATS off 3+ games allowing 60 points or less

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Belmont vs. Arizona, 7:20 ET TNT
Belmont: 0-6 ATS in March
Arizona: 6-0 Under vs. non-conference opponents

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Oregon vs. Oklahoma State, 4:40 ET TNT
Oregon: 2-8 ATS off BB conference wins
Oklahoma State: 8-2 ATS off an Under

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
New Mexico State vs. St. Louis, 2:10 ET TNT
New Mexico State: 16-4 ATS away off BB Unders
St. Louis: 5-16 ATS away off BB games with a combined score of 125 or less points

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
California vs. UNLV, 7:25 ET TRUTV
California: 21-7 ATS away off BB conference losses
UNLV: 0-8 ATS off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Montana vs. Syracuse, 9:55 ET TRUTV
Montana: 9-2 ATS off an Under
Syracuse: 8-19 ATS off 5+ games forcing 14 or less turnovers

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 21

Thursday's NCAA games

Day games
Valparaiso is most experienced team in country, with two juniors and six seniors in rotation; Crusaders won last six games and 16 of last 18, but lost by hoop at Nebraska, one of worst teams in Big Dozen. Michigan State is 3-4 in last seven games, with all four losses to teams in top 15; they beat Loyola by 12, in only game vs Horizon foe. Spartans played toughest schedule in country; since 2000, Izzo is 3-2 as double digit favorite in this round, but covered just one of last four first round games. Last six years, #3 seeds are 16-8 against spread in this round; first round favorites of between 10-20 points are 27-22 vs spread.

Since 2001, Patriot League teams are 9-3 vs spread in this round, 2-1 if a single digit underdog; LY, Lehigh upset Duke in 2-15 game. Bucknell has a good resume, beating Purdue-New Mexico State-Kent State-LaSalle, losing by hoop at Missouri- this is highest seed for Patriot squad since Bucknell (+4) upset Arkansas 59-55 in an '09 8-9 game. Last four years, dogs are 11-5 vs spread in 6-11 games; since '09, first round underdogs of 5 or less points are 38-19 vs spread. Butler is 10-6 last 16 games after a 16-2 start; Stevens is master when given prep time- Butler was 3-1 as a favorite in two years they went to Finals (dog in six of ten wins).

Over last six years, underdogs are 18-6 vs spread in 8-9 games; since '99, underdogs of 4+ points are 5-2 in 8-9 games. Since '89, dogs are 16-8 SU in the 8-9 game in West region. Pitt missed tourney LY, then played the #339 non-league schedule this year; Dixon is 7-1 in first round tilts (5-3 vs spread), but all seven wins were as 5-seed or higher, loss as 9-seed to Pacific in '05. Wichita split its last six games, losing to Creighton twice; they lost to VCU in 5-12 game LY, their first tourney under Marshall. This figures to be a physical, low-scoring game. First round underdogs of 5 or less points are 38-19 against the spread.

Saint Louis played in Brooklyn last weekend, winning final on Sunday, now has early Thursday game in San Jose, not easiest travel schedule for veteran team that is fashionable pick as Final Foul sleeper. Billikens had rough 3-3 start, but are on 15-1 run now- they've got four juniors, three seniors in rotation, are in top 20 in country at getting to foul line, which could hurt if game isn't called tight. #4 seed in Midwest got upset four of last five years; other #4's are 9-6 vs spread (13-2 SU) during that time. New Mexico State has 7-5 freshman center; they've won 18 of 20 after a 6-8 start, are #3 team in country getting to line, but their best assist guy (Watson) has been injured. Aggies were in Vegas last week; less travel.

Davidson is very well-coached; they made run to Elite 8 in ’08 with Steph Curry, but those are SoCon’s only tournament wins since ’97. Since ’02, Wildcats are 1-4 in first round, losing by 5-8-12-7 points (lost 69-62 (+7) to Louisville LY). Marquette is 4-1 in last five first round games, winning last two years by 11-20 points (won 88-68 (-6) as 3-seed LY). Wildcats won last 17 games; they went 6-6 vs #16 non-conference schedule; best teams they beat were #83 Richmond, #85 Vandy. Marquette won six of last eight games, but lost in first Big East tourney game. First-round underdogs of 5 or less points are 38-19 vs spread, but over last 14 years, #3’s are 53-3 SU in this round.

Lot of pressure on Memphis coach Pastner, who went 19-0 in C-USA but has yet to win NCAA game, losing by 2-7 points last two years as replacement for Calipari, who was 12-3 in NCAAs three years prior to that. Tigers lost non-league game 64-62 at Xavier Feb 26, only loss since Dec 15 at home to Louisville. Memphis plays at #28 tempo; they'll try to wear down St Mary's with their better athletes. St Mary's played three starters 35+ minutes in methodical win Tuesday over an athletic Middle Tennessee team; Gaels are 24-4 in last 28 games, losing all three games with Gonzaga, by 5-17-14 points. Over last four years, underdogs are 11-5 vs spread in 6-11 games. St Mary's is 3-4 in NCAA games under Bennett, upsetting #2 Villanova on short prep time after beating #7 Richmond two days earlier, scenario similar to this one.

This is first time in five years the SWAC rep hasn’t gone to play-in game; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six regular first-round games, losing last two by 43-41 points. Southern won 22 of last 26 games after its 1-6 start, losing to Iowa State by 23, Nebraska by 11, Wyoming by 7- they won at Texas A&M. Jaguars have #2 eFG% in country (41.6%) but no one in SWAC can shoot. From 2004-6, Gonzaga was #2-3-3 seed, won first round games by 27-10-4 points; this is its first #1 seed. Bulldogs are 11-0 vs teams ranked outside top 150, with 10 of 11 wins by 16+ points; they could be looking ahead to second round, vs Pitt/Wichita winner. Over last five years, #1’s are 13-7 vs spread in this round.

Oregon was 17-2 when PG Artis hurt his foot; they went 5-4 while he was out, are 4-2 since he came back, but 14 minutes he played in Pac-12 title game, and totals of 7-24 from floor, 2-11 inside arc since he came back indicate he isn’t close to 100%. Oklahoma State is in NCAAs for first time in three years, third time in seven years since Eddie Sutton retired; they won 12 of last 15 games, have one of two best freshmen in country in Smart (4-19 from arc in their last three losses, 3.4 3’s/game (13-41) in their last 12 wins). Last five years, underdogs are 12-8 vs spread in 5-12 games; since 1994, dogs are 15-4 vs spread in 5-12 Midwest game. Ducks took advantage of Jordan Adams’ injury to beat UCLA Saturday; 12-seed says they might be in NIT had they lost that game.

Night games
Since 1993, Louisville is 3-11-1 vs spread in first round games, losing in first round two of last three years; only other time they were a #1 seed, Cardinals (-20.5) beat Morehead State by 20. North Carolina A&T used four starters 31+ minutes in 73-72 play-in win Tuesday; Aggies lost at Cincinnati 93-39 in its only game against a Big East team. A&T is in serious trouble vs Louisville; they turn it over 22.5% of time, bad news vs Cardinal club that forces turnovers 27.6% of time, #2 in US. #1 seeds are 13-7 vs spread in this round, over last five years. Louisville is 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200 this season, winning by 26-41-52 points; they had 44-10 run in second half vs Syracuse, after being down 15 early in second half. Question is, will they let down after winning conference tournament, and looking ahead to winner of Missouri-Colorado State?

South Dakota State is solid offensive team that won at New Mexico, lost by 3 at Alabama, but also lost at Hofstra/Bakersfield. Jackrabbits make 39.4% behind arc, are #26 in eFG% (53.5%) but also lost by 24 at Minnesota, in their only game vs Big Dozen team. State doesn’t sub much, but is #43 experience team in country, while Michigan is #338. Wolverines (two juniors, no seniors in rotation) went 6-6 in last 12 games, after starting season 20-1; six of its seven losses came vs top 10 teams. Michigan is 2-1 in first round under Beilein, winning by 3-30, with dog covering all three games- they lost as 4-seed to Ohio LY. Last seven years, #4 seeds are 17-11 vs spread in this round. Summit League teams are 0-5 last five years, 2-3 vs spread, losing by 19-10-23-4-8 points, all as 13-14 seeds. Playing in Auburn Hills can’t hurt Michigan.

Belmont is in NCAAs for 6th time since 2006; they’re 0-5 SU, 1-4 vs spread, losing by 34-25-1-14-15 points, with only cover 71-70 (+20) loss to Duke in 2-15 game five years ago- they lost by 14-15 points last two years. Bruins won at Stanford, but lost to VCU by 10, Kansas by 29. Belmont’s 56.8% eFG% is #2 in country; they make 37.6% behind arc, 57.1% inside arc (#1 in country). Since 1985, Arizona is 3-7 SU in first round of NCAAs when lower than a 4-seed; they’re 5-5 in last 10 games after a 20-2 start. First round underdogs of 5 or less points are 38-19 vs spread; over last four years, underdogs are 11-5 vs spread in 6-11 games. Game is in altitude in Salt Lake City; Belmont ranks #284 in bench minutes; will longer TV timeouts save them from getting worn down?

UNLV (+1.5) won 76-75 at Cal Dec 9; Thomas put back airball for win at buzzer, in game Birch didn't play and Moser got hurt in, playing five minutes. Now Rebels go back to NoCal (San Jose) for semi-road game vs Bears, who lost last two games after winning previous seven. Solomon was 7-13 from floor in first game; doubt he'll do as well with defensive ace Birch in paint. Over last five years, dogs are 12-8 vs spread in 5-12 games; underdogs of 5 or less points are 38-19 vs spread. UNLV lost its last three first round games (favored in all three), so certain amount of pressure on Coach Rice, who doesn't have true PG on this roster. Cal lost three of its last four first round games, losing play-in game LY to South Florida. Bears hardly sub; they get 62% of points on 2-pointers (#5 in country), so Rebels' edge inside should be the difference.

Missouri PG Pressey is loose cannon, not a dependable PG, turning ball over 25.5% of time; Tigers are 8-6 in last 14 games, with all six losses by 3 or less points, or in OT- one of losses was on this floor in OT Feb 23. Colorado State starts five seniors, but PG Green tweaked ankle at end of UNLV game Friday, is a ? here. Rams are #308 in bench minutes, so they need Green to be healthy, especially vs Missouri team that will be anxious to atone for upset loss in a 2-15 game LY. Colorado State is top rebounding team in country (#2 on offensive, #1 on defensive boards); Iverson-Oraihki matchup will be fun. Over last six years, underdogs are 18-6 vs spread in 8-9 games; over last 13 years, dogs are 11-2 vs spread in Midwest 8-9 game in. Winner of game gets Louisville Saturday, when Lexington locals will pull for them and against the Cardinals.

Akron PG Abreu got arrested/suspended two weeks ago; Zips won the MAC tourney without him, thanks to double bye, but now face a VCU team that forces turnovers 28.7% of time, #1 in country. Important for VCU to make 3's (35.2% from arc) to negate 7-foot Marshall, defensive force for Zips- two teams Akron played without Abreu, Kent/Ohio, are not good shooting teams. Rams beat Akron 70-53 in '10 Bracket Buster game, then won by point in OT at Akron in return game LY. Since 2006, first round favorites of between 5-10 points are 28-23 vs spread. Dogs are 10-6 vs spread in 5-12 games last four years. VCU won 10 of last 13 games, with only losses to Saint Louis/Temple, teams with outstanding guards. Atlantic 16 is #8 conference this year, MAC is #15. Since 2004, MAC teams are 1-7 in first round games, covering four of last five.

New Mexico is underrated as #3 seed, winning nine of last 10, beating UNLV on its home floor in MWC title game. Key here is to defend the 3-ball; Harvard is #8, making 40.8% behind arc. Crimson didn't exactly dominate Ivy League, losing three games; since 1999, Ivy League teams are 1-13 in first round games, 3-11 vs spread; Harvard (+6.5) lost 79-70 to Vandy in LY's tourney, but two guys from LY that were supposed to return didn't for off-court reasons, so they're #286 in experience, #343 in bench minutes, which will hurt in Salt Lake altitude. Crimson lost its last two road games; they're #2 in country at getting to foul line- Lobos are #8 team in country at not fouling- their two big fellas inside should enjoy playing vs Ivy League bigs after banging with more athletic Mountain West bigs all winter.

Long road trip for Syracuse after playing four games in four days in New York last week; they've won last four first round games, by 15-23-17-7 points. Montana is 93-34 last four years, so they've got guys who are used to winning, but without 6-7 inside star Ward, would have to shoot high percentage of 3's (37.8% for year) against team thats more athletic across board. Over last six years, #4 seeds are 14-10 vs spread in this round; last time #4 seed in East got beat was 1991, though six other #4's have lost in last five years. Cal's fans will be there too; their coach was Montana's coach long time ago (he coached Griz coach Tinkle for year), so if this game stayed close, expect the crowd to turn on eastern favorite and pull for underdog Griz, but Big Sky teams are 1-13 in first round last 14 years, losing last six years (1-5 vs spread) by 28-24-18-5-18-24.

Other tournaments
Very difficult to prep for Princeton offense in a day, but Maryland beat Northwestern by 20 back in December, so they've worked on it before. Long travel for Denver (18-2 in last 20 games)- they were 15-29 at the foul line in four-point win over Ohio Tuesday.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Thursday, March 21

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Trend Report
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1:00 AM
AIR FORCE vs. HAWAII
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hawaii's last 5 games
Hawaii is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

12:15 PM
VALPARAISO vs. MICHIGAN STATE
No trends available
Michigan State is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State's last 6 games

12:40 PM
BUCKNELL vs. BUTLER
No trends available
Butler is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Butler's last 6 games

1:40 PM
WICHITA STATE vs. PITTSBURGH
No trends available
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

2:10 PM
NEW MEXICO STATE vs. SAINT LOUIS
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saint Louis's last 5 games
Saint Louis is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games

3:10 PM
DAVIDSON vs. MARQUETTE
No trends available
Marquette is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Marquette's last 5 games

4:10 PM
SOUTHERN vs. GONZAGA
No trends available
Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Gonzaga's last 9 games

4:40 PM
OREGON vs. OKLAHOMA STATE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State's last 5 games
Oklahoma State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

7:15 PM
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE vs. MICHIGAN
No trends available
Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

7:20 PM
BELMONT vs. ARIZONA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games
Arizona is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

7:27 PM
CALIFORNIA vs. UNLV
No trends available
UNLV is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
UNLV is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games

9:20 PM
MISSOURI vs. COLORADO STATE
No trends available
Colorado State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado State's last 7 games

9:45 PM
AKRON vs. VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
No trends available
Virginia Commonwealth is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games
Virginia Commonwealth is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

9:50 PM
HARVARD vs. NEW MEXICO
No trends available
New Mexico is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Mexico's last 11 games

9:57 PM
MONTANA vs. SYRACUSE
No trends available
Syracuse is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Syracuse is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 20

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Midwest Regional: Day 1 NCAAB betting preview
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No. 3 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 14 Valparaiso Crusaders (+10.5, 126)

Playing in the Big Ten conference, Michigan State didn't have to look far to find stiff competition. When the Spartans make their 16th consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament, they won't have to travel too far to find their next opponent, either. Third-seeded Michigan State will make the trek to The Palace of Auburn Hills, where they'll face 14th-seeded Valparaiso on Thursday in the second round of the Midwest Region.

The Spartans recorded 25 wins and advanced to the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament before being bounced by eventual champion Ohio State on Saturday. With the conference sending seven representatives to the Big Dance, one can easily see why coach Tom Izzo believes his team is battle-tested. "I'd play the (Los Angeles) Lakers tomorrow instead of some of the teams I've played recently," Izzo said moments after Michigan State dropped a 61-58 decision to the Buckeyes.

TRENDS:

* Crusaders are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten.
* Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 9-2 in Spartans last 11 vs. Horizon League.

No. 4 Saint Louis Billikens vs. No. 13 New Mexico State Aggies (+9, 122)

Saint Louis will have its hands full with red-hot New Mexico State freshman Sim Bhullar when the teams meet Thursday in the second round of the Midwest Region at San Jose, Calif. The fourth-seeded Billikens learned their fate at a Best Buy store in Secaucus, N.J., mere hours after winning their first Atlantic 10 tournament title in Brooklyn. Saint Louis is 24-3 since coach Rick Majerus passed away in December. The veteran Billikens used a balanced offense and disciplined defense to run through the A-10 and earn the program's highest NCAA Tournament seed. Junior forward Dwayne Evans gives Saint Louis its own strong presence under the basket.

New Mexico State is the No. 13 seed after winning the Western Athletic Conference tournament for the second straight year. The Aggies have won 18 of their past 20 games and have four players averaging in double figures. New Mexico State has been without senior forward Tyrone Watson, who missed four games with an injured ankle after returning from a 30-day suspension stemming from an arrest. Thursday's winner faces either No. 5 Oklahoma State or No. 12 Oregon.

TRENDS:

* Aggies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games.
* Billikens are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
* Under is 18-7-2 in Aggies' last 27 neutral site games.

No. 6 Memphis Tigers vs. No. 11 St. Mary's Gaels (+1, 135)

Memphis has lost only once in the last 25 games, but the talented Tigers are somewhat unproven with a 1-3 record against NCAA Tournament teams. Sixth-seeded Memphis gets a chance to start showing it belongs as a contender when it plays Saint Mary’s in the second round of the Midwest Regional on Thursday at Auburn Hills, Mich. The Tigers’ losses to NCAA entrants Virginia Commonwealth, Louisville and Minnesota were all before Dec. 16 and Memphis went unbeaten in Conference USA after that. Memphis is balanced offensively and averages almost 76 points.

Saint Mary’s handled Middle Tennessee 67-54 in Tuesday's first round, getting 22 points and four assists from senior Matthew Dellavedova. The Australian guard is the program’s all-time leader in scoring and assists, opening up the floor for a team that has made 270 shots from behind the 3-point line.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 non-conference games.
* Under is 4-0 in Gaels last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 10-2 in Tigers last 12 NCAA Tournament games.

No. 5 Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. No. 12 Oregon Ducks (+3, 134)

Oregon won the Pac-12 tournament over the weekend but that effort only earned the Ducks a No. 12 seed in the Midwest Region, where they’ll take on fifth-seeded Oklahoma State on Thursday in San Jose, Calif. Oregon hasn’t played in the NCAA Tournament since 2008, when it lost its opener to Mississippi State. The Cowboys are returning to the tournament for the first time since 2010, when they lost their opener to Georgia Tech. Oklahoma State is looking for its first win since beating Tennessee in the opening round of the 2009 tournament.

The Cowboys last played a Pac-12 team at the 2011 NIT Preseason Tournament in Madison Square Garden, losing to Stanford 82-67. Both teams faced Portland State two weeks apart in November. Oregon beat the Vikings 80-69 on Nov. 12 and the Cowboys knocked them off 81-58 on Nov. 25. The winner of this game will play either 13th-seeded New Mexico State or No. 4 Saint Louis in Saturday’s second round.

TRENDS:

* Ducks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12.
* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Under is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 NCAA Tournament games.

No. 1 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 16 North Carolina A&T Aggies (+26, 123)

Louisville comes into the NCAA Tournament as the consensus favorite after winning 10 straight games by an average of 15.6 points. The Cardinals begin their quest for a third national title against Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference champion North Carolina A&T in the second round of the Midwest Regional on Thursday at Lexington, Ky. Louisville reached the Final Four last season and came back with a deep, balanced group to win the Big East. The Cardinals lean of their defense, which has allowed an average of 58 points and 10.7 steals.

North Carolina A&T defeated Liberty 73-72 in Tuesday's first round for its first win in 10 NCAA games. The Aggies also rely on their defense, which has limited opponents to 38.3 percent shooting. North Carolina A&T has played two other Big East opponents, losing to Cincinnati by 54 and Seton Hall by 11.

TRENDS:

* Aggies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 7-1 in Cardinals' last eight NCAA Tournament games.

No. 8 Colorado State Rams vs. No. 9 Missouri Tigers (-3, 143)

Two of the nation's top rebounding teams square off on Thursday when eighth-seeded Colorado State takes on ninth-seeded Missouri in the Midwest Region in Lexington, Ky. Overall No. 1 seed Louisville - and a rabid partisan crowd - likely awaits the winner. The Rams and Tigers are both strong in the post, as Missouri ranks second in the nation in rebounding (41.4) and Colorado State is fourth (40.4).

It's the second consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament for the Rams, who have won a school-record 25 games. Missouri is in the NCAA Tournament for the fifth consecutive year, tying a school record. The Tigers also made five straight appearances from 1986-90 and 1999-2003. The teams are meeting for only the third time - and the first since 1969. They have split the first two contests.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Southeastern.
* Over is 25-10 in Tigers' last 35 overall.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 20

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South Regional: Day 1 NCAAB betting preview
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No. 4 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 13 South Dakota State Jackrabbits (+10.5, 126)

Michigan enjoyed tremendous success at home this season and begins its pursuit of a Final Four berth just miles from campus. The Wolverines will travel to nearby Auburn Hills to host Summit League champion South Dakota State in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Coach John Beilein's team makes its fourth trip in six years to the Big Dance and matched its No. 4 seed from a season ago, when Michigan was upset by Ohio in the second round.

The Wolverines, who suffered their lone home loss in 18 games with a one-point setback to top-seeded Indiana, feature a prominent offensive attack. Big Ten Player of the Year Trey Burke leads the team in scoring (19.2) and assists (6.7). He will share top billing in the opening game with Jackrabbits senior star Nate Wolters, who won the honor in the Summit League after leading the conference in scoring and assists. Wolters had 19 points in South Dakota State's loss to Baylor in the second round of the 2011 NCAA Tournament in its first-ever entry. The winner of this one plays either Virginia Commonwealth or Akron in the third round Saturday.

TRENDS:

* Jackrabbits are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Wolverines are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
* Over is 12-3 in Jackrabbits' last 15 non-conference games.

No. 5 VCU Rams vs. No. 12 Akron Zips (+8, 134.5)

Fifth-seeded Virginia Commonwealth will take on No. 12 Akron on Thursday in an NCAA Tournament second-round South Regional matchup in Auburn Hills, Mich. The Rams lost to St. Louis 62-56 in the Atlantic-10 tournament final Sunday, but will head to their third straight Big Dance. The teams had a memorable meeting Dec. 29, 2011, when Akron led by as many as 20 points and 12 in the second half before the Rams forced overtime. Darius Theus' layup with one second remaining gave VCU a 76-75 victory.

Akron avenged its MAC tournament championship game loss to Ohio last year with a 65-46 victory in this year’s final. The Zips reeled off 19 consecutive wins before starting point guard Alex Abreu (10.3 points, 6.0 assists) was suspended indefinitely March 6 following his arrest for suspected marijuana trafficking. Akron lost two of its last three regular-season games prior to the MAC tournament, but recovered to punch its ticket to its third NCAA Tournament in five years. The Zips have never won an NCAA game. Seven-foot senior Zeke Marshall paces Akron with 13 points, 7.1 rebounds and 3.7 blocks on 65.4 percent shooting.

TRENDS:

* Zips are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 neutral-site games.
* Rams are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 15-5-1 in Zips last 21 overall.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 20

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West Regional: Day 1 NCAAB betting preview
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No. 8 Pittsburgh Panthers vs. No. 9 Wichita State Shockers (+4.5, 118.5)

Wichita State earned its second consecutive NCAA Tournament berth despite losing its final two regular-season games and dropping the Missouri Valley Conference final, The ninth-seeded Shockers, who will face eighth-seeded Pittsburgh in the second round of the West Region on Thursday, will vie for their first tournament victory since 2006. The Panthers missed the Big Dance last season for the first time since 2001, but closed their Big East campaign with four straight wins before losing to Syracuse in the conference tournament quarterfinal.

Pittsburgh proved its worth with wins over ranked opponents Georgetown, Syracuse and Cincinnati, but also struggled by losing three of four to start conference play - and three of six leading into its four-game winning streak to end the season. Wichita State dropped a season-high three consecutive games from Jan. 29-Feb. 5 and was held to 62 points or fewer in each contest. Junior forward Cleanthony Early and senior forward Carl Hall drive the Shockers’ offense, averaging a combined 26.4 points.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.
* Shockers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Big East.
* Over is 20-8 in Panthers last 28 non-conference games.

No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 16 Southern Jaguars (+21.5, 126.5)

Gonzaga celebrates its first 1 seed in program history with a second-round West Regional game against 16th-seeded Southern University on Thursday in Salt Lake City. The Zags have won a school-record 31 games and are bullish about making a Final Four run after landing the top seed in the West. Gonzaga is making its 15th straight appearance, fourth-best nationally. Southern is in the tourney for the eighth time, and the first since 2006.

Southern earned its spot in the tournament by winning the Southwestern Athletic Conference tournament. The Jaguars downed Prairie View A&M in the championship game for their seventh win in eight games. Gonzaga has only won two NCAA tournament games once over the past six seasons so there is a bit of pressure for the Bulldogs to live up to their top-seed billing. Gonzaga has won 14 consecutive games and defeated Saint Mary’s in the championship game of the West Coast Conference tournament.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 20-7 in Bulldogs last 27 NCAA Tournament games.

No. 6 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 11 Belmont Bruins (+4.5, 140)

Arizona’s season has played like a country music song, so it’s fitting that the sixth-seeded Wildcats will meet No. 11 seed Belmont on Thursday in the second round of the NCAA Tournament’s South Regional in Salt Lake City. Belmont, a private school located in Nashville, earned its sixth NCAA Tournament berth in the last eight seasons with a dramatic 70-68 win over Murray State in the Ohio Valley Conference title game.

Arizona, which is facing Belmont for the first time in school history, fell to UCLA for the third time this season in the Pac-12 semifinals. The Wildcats opened the season with 14 straight wins and defeated Miami and Florida in non-conference play, but they won just five of their final 10 games. Belmont is 1-4 all-time against Pac-12 opponents, including a 70-62 win at Stanford on Nov. 18.

TRENDS:

* Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Wildcats are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 9-4 in Wildcats last 13 NCAA Tournament games.

No. 3 New Mexico Lobos vs. No. 14 Harvard Crimson (+11.5, 125)

New Mexico coach Steve Alford said 29 victories and a second consecutive Mountain West Conference tournament title - accomplished against the second-toughest schedule in the nation - warranted at least a No. 2 seed. The Lobos will settle for a No. 3 in the West Regional and will open their NCAA Tournament against No. 14 seed Harvard on Thursday in Salt Lake City. The Lobos roar into the NCAAs off a 63-56 victory at UNLV in the MWC title game Saturday. Junior guard Kendall Williams, the MWC Player of the Year, averages 13.5 points while leading the conference in minutes played and finishing second in assists.

Harvard has not played since beating Cornell on March 9 to clinch the Ivy League title and automatic berth. The Crimson will put New Mexico’s perimeter defense to the test. Harvard is tied for sixth in the nation in 3-point shooting (40.1 percent) and 12th in field-goal percentage (48.2). The Crimson are in the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive season after pushing Vanderbilt hard in a 79-70 loss in last year’s second round. The Crimson lost by three at Massachusetts, by eight at Connecticut and by 10 at Memphis this season.

TRENDS:

* Crimson are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
* Lobos are 42-18-2 ATS in their last 62 games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Lobos last five NCAA Tournament games.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 20

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East Regional: Day 1 NCAAB betting preview
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No. 6 Butler Bulldogs vs. No. 11 Bucknell Bison (+4, 121.5)

Sixth-seeded Butler will meet No. 11 Bucknell in an East Regional second-round matchup on Thursday in Lexington, Ky. The mid-major battle features a pair of 6-11 centers in the paint. Mike Muscala leads the Bison with 19 points and 11.2 rebounds, ranking 28th and fourth in the nation, while the Bulldogs counter with Andrew Smith (11.1, 5.7). If Smith can hold the Patriot League’s Player of the Year in check, traditional giant-killer Butler will likely avoid an upset in their return to the Big Dance.

Led by Muscala, the program’s all-time leading scorer, Bucknell won 12 of its last 13 games to return to the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons and fourth in nine. Muscala had 20 points and 11 rebounds as the Bison dispatched Lafayette 64-56 in the Patriot League final Wednesday. With no other player averaging at least 10 shots, Bucknell will only go as far as Muscala carries it.

TRENDS:

* Bison are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
* Bulldogs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 8-3 in Bulldogs last 11 NCAA Tournament games.

No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 14 Davidson Wildcats (+3, 133)

Marquette might be the No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament's East Region, but the Golden Eagles are in tough against an experienced No. 14-seeded Davidson squad in Friday's second-round meeting in Lexington, Ky. The Wildcats, the Southern Conference regular-season and tournament champions, are making their second straight appearance in the Big Dance and their fifth in the last eight seasons. Marquette is making its eighth straight appearance, including Sweet 16 runs the past two years.

The Eagles come in having won six of their last eight, though they were upset in the Big East tournament quarterfinals by Notre Dame. Davidson, meanwhile, has the nation's longest winning streak at 17 games and coach Bob McKillop will make sure his team plays with no fear. The Wildcats like to bomb away from beyond the 3-point arc, which should help against a Marquette team that ranked ninth in the Big East in 3-point field goal defense (.318).

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Golden Eagles are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in Golden Eagles last six NCAA Tournament games.

No. 5 UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. No. 12 California Golden Bears (+2.5, 131)

UNLV looks to end a three-year NCAA Tournament drought as it faces California in a second-round East Regional showdown Thursday in San Jose. The fifth-seeded Rebels have failed to win a game in each of their last three trips to the Tournament, including a 68-64 loss to Colorado last year. UNLV, which won the national championship in 1990 under Jerry Tarkanian and lost to Duke in the Final Four in 1991, has advanced to the Sweet 16 just once since then.

California, which placed second in the Pac-12 Conference with a 12-6 record, will be making its second straight NCAA tournament appearance and 13th since 1990. The 12th-seeded Bears were upset by Utah 78-69 in overtime in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament on Thursday in Las Vegas but have won nine of their last 12 games - including victories over tourney teams Oregon, UCLA, Arizona and Colorado. UNLV defeated the Bears 76-75 on Dec. 9 in Berkeley when forward Quintrell Thomas grabbed an airball and scored with 1.2 seconds remaining.

TRENDS:

* Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Runnin' Rebels are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.

No. 4 Syracuse Orange vs. No. 13 Montana Grizzlies (+13, 127)

Syracuse, which received an at-large bid and the No. 4 seed in the East Region, will play No. 13 seed Montana on Thursday in San Jose, Calif. The Orange, who are 56-35 in 35 years at the Big Dance, were a No. 1 seed but lost to No. 2 seed Ohio State in the Elite Eight last season. Syracuse is coming off a 78-61 loss to Louisville in the Big East tournament championship game. The Grizzlies earned an automatic bid as the Big Sky tournament champion.

Montana, which is making its second straight NCAA Tournament appearance and 10th overall, was a popular upset pick in last season’s Big Dance but lost 74-49 to Wisconsin. The Grizzlies have a six-game win streak, including a 67-64 victory over Weber State in the Big Sky tournament championship game. Montana and Syracuse have never met and did not play any common opponents this season.

TRENDS:

* Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 4-1 in Orange last five neutral site games.

[StarDust Bum]

Night games
Since 1993, Louisville is 3-11-1 vs spread in first round games, losing in first round two of last three years; only other time they were a #1 seed, Cardinals (-20.5) beat Morehead State by 20. North Carolina A&T used four starters 31+ minutes in 73-72 play-in win Tuesday; Aggies lost at Cincinnati 93-39 in its only game against a Big East team. A&T is in serious trouble vs Louisville; they turn it over 22.5% of time, bad news vs Cardinal club that forces turnovers 27.6% of time, #2 in US. #1 seeds are 13-7 vs spread in this round, over last five years. Louisville is 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200 this season, winning by 26-41-52 points; they had 44-10 run in second half vs Syracuse, after being down 15 early in second half. Question is, will they let down after winning conference tournament, and looking ahead to winner of Missouri-Colorado State?

South Dakota State is solid offensive team that won at New Mexico, lost by 3 at Alabama, but also lost at Hofstra/Bakersfield. Jackrabbits make 39.4% behind arc, are #26 in eFG% (53.5%) but also lost by 24 at Minnesota, in their only game vs Big Dozen team. State doesn’t sub much, but is #43 experience team in country, while Michigan is #338. Wolverines (two juniors, no seniors in rotation) went 6-6 in last 12 games, after starting season 20-1; six of its seven losses came vs top 10 teams. Michigan is 2-1 in first round under Beilein, winning by 3-30, with dog covering all three games- they lost as 4-seed to Ohio LY. Last seven years, #4 seeds are 17-11 vs spread in this round. Summit League teams are 0-5 last five years, 2-3 vs spread, losing by 19-10-23-4-8 points, all as 13-14 seeds. Playing in Auburn Hills can’t hurt Michigan.

Belmont is in NCAAs for 6th time since 2006; they’re 0-5 SU, 1-4 vs spread, losing by 34-25-1-14-15 points, with only cover 71-70 (+20) loss to Duke in 2-15 game five years ago- they lost by 14-15 points last two years. Bruins won at Stanford, but lost to VCU by 10, Kansas by 29. Belmont’s 56.8% eFG% is #2 in country; they make 37.6% behind arc, 57.1% inside arc (#1 in country). Since 1985, Arizona is 3-7 SU in first round of NCAAs when lower than a 4-seed; they’re 5-5 in last 10 games after a 20-2 start. First round underdogs of 5 or less points are 38-19 vs spread; over last four years, underdogs are 11-5 vs spread in 6-11 games. Game is in altitude in Salt Lake City; Belmont ranks #284 in bench minutes; will longer TV timeouts save them from getting worn down?

UNLV (+1.5) won 76-75 at Cal Dec 9; Thomas put back airball for win at buzzer, in game Birch didn't play and Moser got hurt in, playing five minutes. Now Rebels go back to NoCal (San Jose) for semi-road game vs Bears, who lost last two games after winning previous seven. Solomon was 7-13 from floor in first game; doubt he'll do as well with defensive ace Birch in paint. Over last five years, dogs are 12-8 vs spread in 5-12 games; underdogs of 5 or less points are 38-19 vs spread. UNLV lost its last three first round games (favored in all three), so certain amount of pressure on Coach Rice, who doesn't have true PG on this roster. Cal lost three of its last four first round games, losing play-in game LY to South Florida. Bears hardly sub; they get 62% of points on 2-pointers (#5 in country), so Rebels' edge inside should be the difference.

Missouri PG Pressey is loose cannon, not a dependable PG, turning ball over 25.5% of time; Tigers are 8-6 in last 14 games, with all six losses by 3 or less points, or in OT- one of losses was on this floor in OT Feb 23. Colorado State starts five seniors, but PG Green tweaked ankle at end of UNLV game Friday, is a ? here. Rams are #308 in bench minutes, so they need Green to be healthy, especially vs Missouri team that will be anxious to atone for upset loss in a 2-15 game LY. Colorado State is top rebounding team in country (#2 on offensive, #1 on defensive boards); Iverson-Oraihki matchup will be fun. Over last six years, underdogs are 18-6 vs spread in 8-9 games; over last 13 years, dogs are 11-2 vs spread in Midwest 8-9 game in. Winner of game gets Louisville Saturday, when Lexington locals will pull for them and against the Cardinals.

Akron PG Abreu got arrested/suspended two weeks ago; Zips won the MAC tourney without him, thanks to double bye, but now face a VCU team that forces turnovers 28.7% of time, #1 in country. Important for VCU to make 3's (35.2% from arc) to negate 7-foot Marshall, defensive force for Zips- two teams Akron played without Abreu, Kent/Ohio, are not good shooting teams. Rams beat Akron 70-53 in '10 Bracket Buster game, then won by point in OT at Akron in return game LY. Since 2006, first round favorites of between 5-10 points are 28-23 vs spread. Dogs are 10-6 vs spread in 5-12 games last four years. VCU won 10 of last 13 games, with only losses to Saint Louis/Temple, teams with outstanding guards. Atlantic 16 is #8 conference this year, MAC is #15. Since 2004, MAC teams are 1-7 in first round games, covering four of last five.

New Mexico is underrated as #3 seed, winning nine of last 10, beating UNLV on its home floor in MWC title game. Key here is to defend the 3-ball; Harvard is #8, making 40.8% behind arc. Crimson didn't exactly dominate Ivy League, losing three games; since 1999, Ivy League teams are 1-13 in first round games, 3-11 vs spread; Harvard (+6.5) lost 79-70 to Vandy in LY's tourney, but two guys from LY that were supposed to return didn't for off-court reasons, so they're #286 in experience, #343 in bench minutes, which will hurt in Salt Lake altitude. Crimson lost its last two road games; they're #2 in country at getting to foul line- Lobos are #8 team in country at not fouling- their two big fellas inside should enjoy playing vs Ivy League bigs after banging with more athletic Mountain West bigs all winter.

Long road trip for Syracuse after playing four games in four days in New York last week; they've won last four first round games, by 15-23-17-7 points. Montana is 93-34 last four years, so they've got guys who are used to winning, but without 6-7 inside star Ward, would have to shoot high percentage of 3's (37.8% for year) against team thats more athletic across board. Over last six years, #4 seeds are 14-10 vs spread in this round; last time #4 seed in East got beat was 1991, though six other #4's have lost in last five years. Cal's fans will be there too; their coach was Montana's coach long time ago (he coached Griz coach Tinkle for year), so if this game stayed close, expect the crowd to turn on eastern favorite and pull for underdog Griz, but Big Sky teams are 1-13 in first round last 14 years, losing last six years (1-5 vs spread) by 28-24-18-5-18-24.

Other tournaments
Very difficult to prep for Princeton offense in a day, but Maryland beat Northwestern by 20 back in December, so they've worked on it before. Long travel for Denver (18-2 in last 20 games)- they were 15-29 at the foul line in four-point win over Ohio Tuesday.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, March 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Valparaiso - 12:15 PM ET Michigan St -10.5 500 POD # 1
Michigan St - Under 129 500

Bucknell - 12:40 PM ET Bucknell +4 500
Butler - Over 122 500

Wichita St. - 1:40 PM ET Pittsburgh -3.5 500
Pittsburgh - Under 118.5 500

New Mexico St. - 2:10 PM ET Saint Louis -9.5 500 POD # 2
Saint Louis - Over 122 500

St. Mary's - 2:45 PM ET St. Mary's +1.5 500
Memphis - Over 140 500

Davidson - 3:10 PM ET Marquette -3.5 500
Marquette - Over 133.5 500

Southern - 4:10 PM ET Gonzaga -22.5 500 POD # 3
Gonzaga - Under 128.5 500

Oregon - 4:40 PM ET Oklahoma St. -1.5 500
Oklahoma St. - Over 135 500

No.Carolina A&T - 6:50 PM ET No.Carolina A&T +26.5 500 POD # 4
Louisville - Over 124 500

[StarDust Bum]

Evening POD's and Other Regarded Plays:

Denver - 7:00 PM ET Denver +4.5 500
Maryland - Over 130 500

South Dakota State - 7:15 PM ET Michigan -11 500
Michigan - Over 141.5 500

Belmont - 7:20 PM ET Belmont +4.5 500 POD # 2
Arizona - Under 141 500

California - 7:27 PM ET California +3.5 500 POD # 3
UNLV - Over 131 500

Missouri - 9:20 PM ET Colorado St. +2.5 500 POD # 1
Colorado St. - Under 142 500

Akron - 9:45 PM ET Akron +7 500
VCU - Over 134.5 500

Harvard - 9:50 PM ET New Mexico -9.5 500
New Mexico - Over 126.5 500

Montana - 9:57 PM ET Montana +13 500 PODS # 4
Syracuse - Under 128 500