The Bum's College Basketball Best Bets Thru March Madess !

[StarDust Bum]

Coaches to Bet

March 18, 2013

Top ATS Teams and NCAA Tournament Coaches

The 2013 NCAA Tournament is here! Before you start to fill out your brackets and place bets on the dance, check out this list of the top NCAA Tournament coaches who are leading their teams to wins and covers consistently in the big dance.

Tom Izzo, Michigan State Spartans – Has there been a better picture of consistency in the dance than Izzo? He only went 1-2 against the spread in last year's dance, but he is 11-7 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2008, and that includes two runs to the Elite Eight. The last time MSU was knocked out of the tourney in the first round was back in 2006 when a little school named George Mason went on a magic run to the Final Four.


Brad Stevens, Butler Bulldogs – How's 17-5 ATS in your last 22 postseason games? That's what Butler's record is since the second round of the NIT in 2006, and in there includes a nice run in the CBI last year as well. The Bulldogs of course, have been to a pair of National Championship Games under Stevens, and it's a miracle that he is even still coaching with the boys at Hinkle Fieldhouse. This is shaping up to be another great Butler team this year.

Shaka Smart, VCU Rams – How could we talk about Stevens without talking about Smart? This is another one of these coaches that passed up the big bucks to continue to try to grow his mid-major program, and it has really paid off. The Rams are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games here in the NCAA Tournament, and that's thanks to their patented HAVOC defense, which this season, forced nearly 12 steals and over 17 turnovers per game.

Jim Larranaga, Miami Hurricanes – This is a new experience for Larranaga, as he is used to playing the underdog role with George Mason. However, Larranaga jumped to Miami this year and took over a program that was set to potentially fall into shambles with NCAA sanctions potentially coming. Instead of folding, Larranaga led his team to the ACC regular season and tournament titles, going 20-9-1 ATS in the process. On top of that, the former George Mason boss was 3-1 ATS in his four first round games, which is a good sign for "The U" in Austin on Friday against Pacific.

Bo Ryan, Wisconsin Badgers – The Badgers have made back to back good runs to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament, and they are 5-1 ATS to show for their work in those games. This has never been a team that has had great shooters, but stout defenses have been the key. Ryan has been the orchestrator of all of this, and he is sure to be on the prowl for another run to the second week of the tourney this year as well.

[StarDust Bum]

Midwest Region Outlook

March 18, 2013


With the brackets set, here is a quick look at the Midwest region and some of the games and teams to pay attention to. Louisville leads the charge in this region and by all accounts has the most favorable path in the field but rarely does this tournament play to form completely. Take a look at the Midwest region in this snapshot.

Favorite: Louisville - The Cardinals have not been immune to an early upset, bowing out early two years ago as a #4 seed but this was a final four team last season and one of the more complete teams in the nation. Louisville is not an elite shooting team but the Cardinals possess perhaps the best defense in the nation and as was displayed during the Big East championship game, the press can create turnovers and big scoring runs. By being the #1 overall seed Louisville will draw a very weak first round foe and the Cardinals will be stacked with favorable venues with a path in Lexington and then Indianapolis. The second round game could be a challenge however as both Colorado State and Missouri rate above Louisville in offensive efficiency as they are the top two rebounding teams in the tournament field. Louisville would be a larger favorite than any other #1 seed in the second game however as there are some quality teams in the #8-9 slots this year. Louisville also likely draws the least fearsome #4 and #5 seeds in their region so rightfully so the Cardinals enter as the championship favorites at 9/2.

Final Four Sleeper: Saint Louis - Nationally the Billikens may not be a household name but this is a team that has been on a roll. The death of former head coach Rick Majerus as the season started was a challenge but this team has played on a mission, winning the regular season and conference tournament titles in a very strong Atlantic 10 Conference. St. Louis has been one of the top ATS teams in the nation this season at 21-10 on the season and the Billikens have held foes to just 58 points per game this season. St. Louis beat New Mexico and lost to Kansas in the most prominent non-conference games so they have some experience against top teams. There are no easy games at this point and St. Louis is just a slight favorite against New Mexico State in an intriguing first round game and the second round contest will be closely lined with either Oklahoma State or Oregon but this is a team that could challenge Louisville should they get the opportunity and that game would also be a reasonable trip for St. Louis in Indianapolis.

Sweet 16 Sleeper: Middle Tennessee State - The Blue Raiders brought about the most controversy among the teams included in the field but that was the scenario for a Virginia Commonwealth team that made it to the Final Four two years ago. This is a team that lost just five games all season and all three non-conference losses came against teams that are in the NCAA Tournament field. Middle Tennessee State beat Mississippi and Vanderbilt this season and this is a veteran squad with all seniors and juniors in the rotation, ready for this opportunity after just missing out on the NCAA Tournament last season. Middle Tennessee State made a run to the NIT Final Eight last season and that experience should help the cause in the postseason this year. Opening up with a St. Mary’s won’t be an easy game but the Gaels do face long travel and have a complete dearth of quality wins on their resume. Memphis awaits the winner of that game but Conference USA warrants great scrutiny and the Tigers appear to be a bit over-seeded. Getting to the Sweet 16 will likely require beating Michigan State so this is certainly a long shot but the Spartans have had several early flameouts in the Tom Izzo years despite being well known for Final Four runs. Michigan State has lost its first or second tournament game five times since 2002 and the Blue Raiders are well equipped to handle a half court Big Ten style game.

Best Opening Game: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon - Oregon has a right to feel slighted in the bracket as a #12 seed despite winning the conference tournament. Oregon finished ahead of Colorado in the regular season and the Buffaloes were dealt a #10 seed while fellow under-seeded California also at #12 was at least given a game in its backyard. Oregon went 3-0 this season against UCLA and Arizona yet both of those teams were seeded well above the Ducks. Oklahoma State is a team that had Final Four sleeper attached to it before the brackets came out as they have one of the best players in the nation with freshman Marcus Smart. The Cowboys have a very tough draw overall but this is a team that won a preseason tournament in Puerto Rico with wins over Akron, Tennessee, and NC State in succession. Oklahoma State also lost by just a single-point against Gonzaga and this team was a single-point in double-overtime away from beating Kansas for a second time on the year. These teams both have excellent defensive efficiency ratings and this game will figure to be a grind of a game between two teams that are capable of making noise in the bracket despite the tough first game. Despite the 5/12 seeding the Cowboys are just 3-point favorite in this match-up and this could well be an exciting down-to-the-wire game Thursday afternoon.

Trendy Upset that won’t be: Cincinnati over Creighton - This is an offense vs. defense showdown and while backing the Big East as an underdog vs. the Missouri Valley sounds appealing this is a Cincinnati team in disarray at this point in the season. The Bearcats have lost seven of the last 11 games and each of the last three losses came by at least 16 points. Cincinnati has lost each of the last six games in which their opponent scored at least 60 points and this Blue Jays squad is one of the highest scoring teams in the nation, averaging over 75 points per game. Creighton has the top shooting percentage in the nation both overall and from 3-point range and while Cincinnati is one of the worst free throw teams in the nation, Creighton is one of the best. Cincinnati will play great defense and force Creighton into some uncomfortable looks but this is a veteran team with many different scoring options even through Doug McDermott gets most of the attention. Meanwhile Cincinnati is the team with limited options on offense with the vast majority of the scoring coming from three players. Creighton beat both Wisconsin and California away from home this season, two teams with outstanding defensive efficiency like Cincinnati, so it is not clear that the Blue Jays can be slowed down in this match-up. Cincinnati is much closer to Philadelphia than Omaha but that court will be dominated by Duke and Georgetown fans, which will relish rooting against the Bearcats.

[StarDust Bum]

West Region Outlook

March 19, 2013


Midwest Region Outlook

With the brackets set, here is a quick look at the West region and some of the games and teams to pay attention to. Gonzaga earned a historic though controversial #1 seed but this could be a wide open region. Take a look at the West region in this snapshot.

Favorite: Gonzaga - While there are different opinions all around on who will come out of this region, Gonzaga is still listed as the favorite at 9/4. Ohio State and New Mexico are close behind and there are many that feel Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Kansas State are all viable contenders in what could be a wide open region. Gonzaga does not have the resume to be up at the top, but they did lose just two games and the Bulldogs pass the eye test. Facing a tough defensive team like Pittsburgh or Wisconsin would seem to be a big hurdle for this squad and the lack of legitimate competition in the last two months is certainly a concern. Gonzaga will get to play on the West Coast which could certainly help against Eastern contenders, but that advantage would be negated if they make it to the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight games and have to face New Mexico or Arizona. While Gonzaga has slightly shorter odds than Ohio State to win this region as well as to win the national championship, the Buckeyes will likely be favored if they actually meet head-to-head. Gonzaga would only be a two or three-point favorite over potential foes Pittsburgh or Wisconsin, so while the Bulldogs can make a run, they are certainly rightfully pegged as a team that could also fall early and one has to be hesitant to pencil in Gonzaga to the Final Four, though it is not clear who the best alternative may be.

Final Four Sleeper: Kansas State - Should the bracket play to form, Wisconsin will likely be favored over Kansas State, but the Wildcats may be the forgotten team in this region. Kansas State has lost just seven games all season and every loss came against a NCAA Tournament team with three of those losses coming against Kansas. The location advantage should not be overlooked as the first two games for the Wildcats will be in Kansas City in an arena this team has already played games in this season. Wisconsin is certainly a dangerous team in that potential round of 32 matchup, but the Wildcats have veteran guards that won't be forced into careless mistakes and Coach Weber is certainly familiar with the Badgers. Should they have to face Gonzaga, it would be a great challenge, but the Bulldogs are likely to get a great second round test and they look like the most vulnerable of the top seeds. Given that Kansas State is sitting at 25/1 to win this region, this is a team with a lot of value and in a wide-open region and all of the teams in the path of the Wildcats have clear vulnerabilities. Kansas State beat Florida earlier this season and while they have struggled with rival Kansas, this is a team that can make a deep run in this region even though most are overlooking this team.

Sweet 16 Sleeper: Pittsburgh - The Panthers have efficiency rankings that peg them as a top 10 team, yet the Panthers were saddled with a #8 seed. That may be a blessing in disguise as they draw the most vulnerable #1 seed in their pod and while Wichita State is not an easy first round opponent, the Shockers certainly don't have any wins of substance that rival what the Panthers battled through in the Big East. This is a team that has defeated Georgetown and Syracuse this season and also played very tight games with Michigan, Marquette, and Louisville. Pittsburgh has some youth, but this is a team that improved tremendously as the season went on and may be able to peak at the right time. Pittsburgh might not be consistent enough on offense to make a Final Four run, but they will be a serious threat to knock off Gonzaga should they survive the opening game with Wichita State as slowing down Gonzaga's offense to Pittsburgh's pace could cause real problems for the Bulldogs. Jamie Dixon has been labeled with being a great regular season performer only to see his team often fail in the NCAA Tournament as a high seed, this year's team has the opportunity to turn the tables on that history and produce a great run as a lesser seed.

Best Opening Game: Arizona vs. Belmont - The Pac-12 did not get a whole lot of respect from the NCAA Tournament committee with teams like Oregon and California falling to the 12-line, but Arizona may be a team that is over-seeded. Arizona finished 25-7 on the season and wins over Florida and Miami certainly stand out. Arizona struggled in the Pac-12 however going 0-5 against UCLA, Oregon, and California. This team is reliant on four underclassmen that play significant minutes and they will face a veteran Belmont squad that starts five upperclassmen. This Belmont team was in the NCAA Tournament the last two seasons, but they were dealt tough draws with elite defensive teams, falling in competitive games with Wisconsin and Georgetown. This year Belmont draws an Arizona team that is vulnerable to 3-point shooting and the Bruins have several players that will look to knock down long range shots regularly. Belmont won at Stanford earlier this season so they have proven they can hang with a quality Pac-12 squad and in the Bracket Buster the Bruins dominated an Ohio team that was in the Sweet 16 last season. This team is ready for this opportunity and if the shots are falling this could be a down-to-the-wire game.

Trendy Upset that won't be: Ole Miss over Wisconsin - Wisconsin is getting a little more national respect than usual this season as the Badgers are generally a team that many pundits peg for a first round fall. While Bo Ryan has had a few squads that have underachieved a bit in the Big Dance, he has only once lost in the first round in 11 straight trips to the tournament. Belmont and Montana were both popular upset picks the last two years and both went down by double-digits against the Badgers. Ole Miss is a team that would not have made the NCAA Tournament until a great SEC Tournament run and the overall body of work is rather shaky for the Rebels. Prior to beating Missouri and Florida in the SEC tournament, Mississippi had defeated exactly one NCAA Tournament team this season and this is a squad that also lost to several bad teams, including falling to Mississippi State and South Carolina this year in SEC play. Mississippi has some talent but this team often lacks discipline, playing up-tempo and often forcing questionable shots. That style of play won't often hold up well against an elite Big Ten defense and with top distributor Jarvis Summers unlikely to play with a recent concussion this could be a disastrous match-up for Rebels team. Ole Miss has the look of a team that may simply be happy to be in the field and still riding high after the conference tournament championship.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Nate Silver posted the odds for each team winning its region..........

East South
Indiana 51% Florida 37%
Syracuse 12% Kansas 32%
Miami 11% Michigan 13%
Marquette 6% Georgetown 7%
NC State 5% VCU 3%
Butler 3% Minnesota 2%
UNLV 3% North Carolina 2%


*****

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.......

13) Watching replay of the Giants-Rockies game over the weekend; Giant announcers were saying that Opening Day is a sellout, unless of course you buy a Giants 6-pack. In other words, the game is sold out unless you want to buy tickets for five other crummy games, then they’ll miraculously find you tickets for the home opener. Slimy.

12) Walt Weiss is the new manager of the Rockies; he wants Colorado to carry 13 pitchers on its roster for its home series, only 12 on road trips, due to the extra offense in games at Coors Field.

Interesting concept, not sure it is doable, since once a guy gets sent down he has to stay there for 15 days, except to replace an injured player.

11) Funny story in the NYC papers Monday about how the Saint Louis Billikens were stuck in traffic heading to the airport for their flight home from the A-16 tournament Sunday, so they stopped in a Best Buy in Secaucus, NJ to watch the Selection Show on CBS. Imagine being in that store and seeing 15-20 really tall people walk in the store, all dressed in sweats?

10) From 1987-98, #3 seeds were 38-10 SU in the first round, meaning one lost pretty much every year. From 1999 on, #3 seeds are 53-3 SU, as gap between big boys and low majors has widened.

9) Three of the four play-in game winners have to play day games in their second tournament game; that doesn’t seem right. You play on Tuesday night and then again Thursday afternoon? Would think play-in winners would all get night games in next round.

8) Didn’t know that NBA referees aren’t allowed to work the same team’s games within five days of each other. You learn stuff listening to Mike Breen on ESPN.

7) Of the 16 head coaches in the South region of the NCAA tournament, 10 have coached in a Final Four, and two of the other six are John Beilein and Keith Dambrot, who was Lebron James’ high school coach. Its a heavyweight region for coaches.

6) Four of the six oldest players in the NBA play for the Knicks; Kurt Thomas is the oldest player in the league, one day older than Grant Hill.

5) CBS put Steve Kerr in a 3-man booth with Jim Nantz/Clark Kellogg for the tournament, creating more work for the mute button. Kellogg never lets Kerr finish a sentence, always putting his stamp of approval/disapproval on every thought. I miss the days when Billy Packer was his old grumpy self as an analyst on the air. No one interrupted him.

4) CIT is one of the lesser postseason basketball tournaments; they have Loyola, Md-Boston U as a first round matchup, which doesn’t look like much, but those teams are both headed to the Patriot League next year, so from here on in, they’ll be league rivals.

3) Over the last six years, underdogs are 18-6 vs spread in those 8-9 first round matchups.

2) Odd baseball trade this weekend; as Phillies dealt minor league pitcher Mike Cisco to the Angels......for nothing!!! Cisco is 13-3, 1.73 the last two years in minors (AA/AAA); he pitched at South Carolina, is grandson of former big league pitcher Galen Cisco, so he isn't a stiff.

Officially, he was dealt "for no compensation". Alrighty then.

1) Rupp Arena is hosting NCAA tournament games this weekend, so they put Kentucky's NIT game on the road, at Robert Morris; big event for Colonials, who sold the game out already, then cancelled classes on Tuesday.

Thing is, its also a home game for John Calipari, who is from the Pittsburgh area. He grew up in Moon Township, went to Clarion State.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

First Post

Liberty vs. North Carolina A&T
The Aggies look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 neutral site games. North Carolina A&T is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Aggies favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: North Carolina A&T (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

TUESDAY, MARCH 19

Game 539-540: Liberty vs. North Carolina A&T (6:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Liberty 47.420; North Carolina A&T 52.466
Dunkel Line: North Carolina A&T by 5; 132
Vegas Line: North Carolina A&T by 2 1/2; 127
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina A&T (-2 1/2); Over

Game 541-542: St. Mary's vs. Middle Tennessee State (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's 70.330; Middle Tennessee State 65.291
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's by 5; 126
Vegas Line: St. Mary's by 2 1/2; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (-2 1/2); Under

Game 543-544: Niagara at Maryland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 56.639; Maryland 65.206
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 8 1/2; 143
Vegas Line: Maryland by 11; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+11); Under

Game 545-546: St. John's at St. Joseph's (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 60.156; St. Joseph's 64.999
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 5; 133
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 6 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (+6 1/2); Over

Game 547-548: Louisiana Tech at Florida State (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 56.544; Florida State 64.287
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 7 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Florida State by 5; 143
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-5); Under

Game 549-550: Kentucky at Robert Morris (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 62.978; Robert Morris 60.073
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 3; 148
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 4 1/2; 141
Dunkel Pick: Robert Morris (+4 1/2); Over

Game 551-552: Northeastern at Alabama (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 51.145; Alabama 64.753
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 13 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Alabama by 12; 130
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-12); Under

Game 553-554: Norfolk State at Virginia (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 51.654; Virginia 65.387
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 13 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Virginia by 16 1/2; 123
Dunkel Pick: Norfolk State (+16 1/2); Over

Game 555-556: Ohio at Denver (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 56.652; Denver 69.235
Dunkel Line: Denver by 13 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 127
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7); Over

Game 557-558: Washington at BYU (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 59.018; BYU 66.865
Dunkel Line: BYU by 8; 142
Vegas Line: BYU by 5; 146
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-5); Under

Game 559-560: Stephen F. Austin at Stanford (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stephen F. Austin 57.660; Stanford 70.237
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 12 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Stanford by 9; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-9); Under

Game 563-564: George Mason at College of Charleston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 53.760; College of Charleston 57.182
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 3 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 4; 133
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (+4); Over

Game 565-566: Lehigh at Wyoming (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lehigh 55.345; Wyoming 59.101
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 4; 130
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 5; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Lehigh (+5); Over

Game 567-568: Vermont at Santa Clara (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vermont 52.922; Santa Clara 62.236
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 9 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: Santa Clara by 8; 132
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (-8); Under

Game 575-576: Rider at Hartford (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 54.901; Hartford 51.103
Dunkel Line: Rider by 4; 127
Vegas Line: Rider by 2 1/2; 122
Dunkel Pick: Rider (-2 1/2); Over

Game 577-578: Eastern Kentucky at Gardner-Webb (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 57.237; Gardner Webb 53.306
Dunkel Line: Eastern Kentucky by 4; 128
Vegas Line: Eastern Kentucky by 2 1/2; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (-2 1/2); Under

Game 579-580: Fairfield at Kent State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 52.086; Kent State 57.176
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 5; 133
Vegas Line: Kent State by 6; 126
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+6); Over

Game 581-582: Oakland at Youngstown State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 50.077; Youngstown State 55.297
Dunkel Line: Youngstown State by 5; 147
Vegas Line: Youngstown State by 4; 151 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Youngstown State (-4); Under

Game 583-584: Savannah State at East Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Savannah State 49.600; East Carolina 55.117
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 5 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 7; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Savannah State (+7); Over

Game 585-586: Boston U at Loyola-MD (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston U 52.246; Loyola-MD 59.510
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 7 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 6 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-6 1/2); Under

Game 587-588: North Dakota at Northern Iowa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 49.098; Northern Iowa 60.439
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 11 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 15; 131
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota (+15); Over

Game 589-590: Tennessee State at Evansville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 54.358; Evansville 66.027
Dunkel Line: Evansville by 11 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Evansville by 8 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (-8 1/2); Under
Reply With Quote

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, March 19

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LIBERTY (15 - 20) vs. N CAROLINA A&T (19 - 16) - 3/19/2013, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LIBERTY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA A&T is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.
N CAROLINA A&T is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
N CAROLINA A&T is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
N CAROLINA A&T is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
N CAROLINA A&T is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
N CAROLINA A&T is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIDDLE TENN ST (28 - 5) vs. ST MARYS-CA (27 - 6) - 3/19/2013, 9:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
MIDDLE TENN ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST MARYS-CA is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NIAGARA (19 - 13) at MARYLAND (22 - 12) - 3/19/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NIAGARA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
MARYLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
MARYLAND is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST JOHNS (16 - 15) at ST JOSEPHS (18 - 13) - 3/19/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST JOSEPHS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
ST JOSEPHS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
ST JOHNS is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.
ST JOSEPHS is 6-13 ATS (-8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LOUISIANA TECH (26 - 6) at FLORIDA ST (18 - 15) - 3/19/2013, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in a home game where the total is 140 to 144.5 since 1997.
FLORIDA ST is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KENTUCKY (21 - 11) at ROBERT MORRIS (23 - 10) - 3/19/2013, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NORTHEASTERN (20 - 12) at ALABAMA (21 - 12) - 3/19/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all home games this season.
ALABAMA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
ALABAMA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is 130 to 134.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NORFOLK ST (21 - 11) at VIRGINIA (21 - 11) - 3/19/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA is 48-33 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 48-33 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all home games this season.
VIRGINIA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home lined games this season.
VIRGINIA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VIRGINIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 1-0 straight up against NORFOLK ST over the last 3 seasons

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OHIO U (24 - 9) at DENVER (21 - 9) - 3/19/2013, 9:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO U is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DENVER is 34-23 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 34-23 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
DENVER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO U is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO U is 75-48 ATS (+22.2 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
OHIO U is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in road games in first round tournament games since 1997.
DENVER is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 since 1997.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (18 - 15) at BYU (21 - 11) - 3/19/2013, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 177-126 ATS (+38.4 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
BYU is 117-83 ATS (+25.7 Units) in all home games since 1997.
BYU is 117-83 ATS (+25.7 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
BYU is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1997.
BYU is 81-56 ATS (+19.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SF AUSTIN ST (27 - 4) at STANFORD (18 - 14) - 3/19/2013, 11:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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GEORGE MASON (18 - 14) at COLL OF CHARLESTON (24 - 10) - 3/19/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 64-36 ATS (+24.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
GEORGE MASON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games when playing with 7 or more days rest since 1997.
GEORGE MASON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGE MASON is 1-0 against the spread versus COLL OF CHARLESTON over the last 3 seasons
GEORGE MASON is 1-0 straight up against COLL OF CHARLESTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LEHIGH (21 - 9) at WYOMING (19 - 13) - 3/19/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.
WYOMING is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) after scoring 60 points or less this season.
WYOMING is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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VERMONT (21 - 11) at SANTA CLARA (21 - 11) - 3/19/2013, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VERMONT is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.
VERMONT is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
SANTA CLARA is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SANTA CLARA is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SANTA CLARA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
SANTA CLARA is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
SANTA CLARA is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SANTA CLARA is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) after a conference game this season.
SANTA CLARA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
SANTA CLARA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SANTA CLARA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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RIDER (18 - 14) at HARTFORD (17 - 13) - 3/19/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RIDER is 66-93 ATS (-36.3 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
RIDER is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
RIDER is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
RIDER is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
RIDER is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
RIDER is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
RIDER is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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E KENTUCKY (24 - 9) at GARDNER WEBB (21 - 12) - 3/19/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GARDNER WEBB is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
E KENTUCKY is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
E KENTUCKY is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
E KENTUCKY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 7 or more days rest since 1997.
E KENTUCKY is 27-8 ATS (+18.2 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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FAIRFIELD (19 - 15) at KENT ST (20 - 13) - 3/19/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FAIRFIELD is 11-19 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all games this season.
FAIRFIELD is 11-19 ATS (-9.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
FAIRFIELD is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
FAIRFIELD is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
FAIRFIELD is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
KENT ST is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1997.
KENT ST is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
KENT ST is 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
KENT ST is 63-37 ATS (+22.3 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
KENT ST is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENT ST is 1-0 against the spread versus FAIRFIELD over the last 3 seasons
KENT ST is 1-0 straight up against FAIRFIELD over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (16 - 16) at YOUNGSTOWN ST (17 - 15) - 3/19/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in March games since 1997.
OAKLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games on Tuesday nights since 1997.
OAKLAND is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
OAKLAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAVANNAH ST (19 - 14) at E CAROLINA (18 - 12) - 3/19/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E CAROLINA is 160-200 ATS (-60.0 Units) in all games since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 160-200 ATS (-60.0 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 65-92 ATS (-36.2 Units) in all home games since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 65-92 ATS (-36.2 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 101-146 ATS (-59.6 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 66-99 ATS (-42.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 48-79 ATS (-38.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BOSTON U (17 - 12) at LOYOLA-MD (21 - 11) - 3/19/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOYOLA-MD is 51-82 ATS (-39.2 Units) in all home games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 51-82 ATS (-39.2 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 38-62 ATS (-30.2 Units) in home games after a conference game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOYOLA-MD is 1-0 against the spread versus BOSTON U over the last 3 seasons
LOYOLA-MD is 1-0 straight up against BOSTON U over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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N DAKOTA (16 - 16) at N IOWA (18 - 14) - 3/19/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N DAKOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
N IOWA is 1-0 against the spread versus N DAKOTA over the last 3 seasons
N IOWA is 2-0 straight up against N DAKOTA over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE ST (18 - 14) at EVANSVILLE (18 - 14) - 3/19/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EVANSVILLE is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
EVANSVILLE is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
EVANSVILLE is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
EVANSVILLE is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
EVANSVILLE is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
TENNESSEE ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Wednesday, March 20

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LONG ISLAND (20 - 13) vs. JAMES MADISON (20 - 14) - 3/20/2013, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JAMES MADISON is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games this season.
JAMES MADISON is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LASALLE (21 - 9) vs. BOISE ST (21 - 10) - 3/20/2013, 9:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 60-86 ATS (-34.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, March 19

NCAA Tournament Betting Trends

NCAA Tournament, First Round
Liberty vs. North Carolina A&T, 6:40 ET TRUTV
Liberty: 1-9 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
North Carolina A&T: 6-0 ATS playing on a neutral court

NCAA Tournament, First Round
Middle Tennessee State vs. St. Mary's, 9:10 ET TRUTV
Mid Tenn State: 2-11 ATS away after playing as a favorite
St. Mary's: 5-1 ATS off BB games scoring 30 or less first-half points


NIT Tournament Betting Trends

NIT Tournament, First Round
Niagara at Maryland, 7:00 ET ESPN2
Niagara: 7-17 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Maryland: 7-0 ATS off a SU loss / ATS win

NIT Tournament, First Round
St. John's at St. Joseph's, 7:00 ET ESPNU
St. John's: 10-3 Over off BB home games
St. Joseph's: 8-1 ATS off a combined score of 155+ points

NIT Tournament, First Round
Louisiana Tech at Florida State, 7:15 ET
Louisiana Tech: 1-8 ATS off a SU conference loss as a favorite of 6+ points
Florida State: 13-5 ATS in March

NIT Tournament, First Round
Kentucky at Robert Morris, 7:30 ET ESPN
Kentucky: 1-6 ATS after scoring 60 points or less
Robert Morris: 6-1 ATS after playing as a home favorite

NIT Tournament, First Round
Northeastern at Alabama, 9:00 ET ESPN2
Northeastern: 2-10 ATS after winning 15+ of their last 20 games
Alabama: 40-22 ATS after playing BB games as an underdog

NIT Tournament, First Round
Norfolk State at Virginia, 9:00 ET ESPNU
Norfolk State: 6-1 ATS playing with 5 or 6 days rest
Virginia: 2-9 ATS in March

NIT Tournament, First Round
Ohio U at Denver, 9:15 ET
Ohio U: 12-4 ATS in first round tournament games
Denver: 1-6 ATS in tournament games

NIT Tournament, First Round
Washington at BYU, 9:30 ET ESPN
Washington: 13-4 ATS off BB ATS losses
BYU: 1-6 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games

NIT Tournament, First Round
Stephen F. Austin at Stanford, 11:00 ET ESPN2
Stephen F. Austin: 5-1 ATS after winning 4 of their last 5 games
Stanford: 6-0 Over after allowing 85+ points


CBI Tournament Betting Trends

CBI Tournament, First Round
George Mason at College of Charleston, 7:00 ET
George Mason: 17-7 ATS off a SU loss
Charleston: 3-9 ATS after winning 4 of their last 5 games

CBI Tournament, First Round
Lehigh at Wyoming, 9:00 ET
Lehigh: 6-1 ATS after playing BB games as a favorite
Wyoming: 3-11 ATS off BB conference games

CBI Tournament, First Round
Vermont at Santa Clara, 10:00 ET
Vermont: 19-6 ATS off a home game
Santa Clara: 3-10 ATS off BB conference games


CIT Tournament Betting Trends

CIT Tournament, First Round
Rider at Hartford, 7:00 ET
Rider: 9-0 ATS after playing BB games as an underdog
Hartford: 0-6 ATS off an ATS loss

CIT Tournament, First Round
Eastern Kentucky at Gardner Webb, 7:00 ET
Eastern Kentucky: 3-7 ATS after forcing 8 or less turnovers
Gardner Webb: 8-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

CIT Tournament, First Round
Fairfield at Kent State, 7:00 ET
Fairfield: 2-9 ATS off BB ATS losses
Kent State: 12-4 ATS off BB games with 12 or less assists

CIT Tournament, First Round
Oakland at Youngstown State, 7:00 ET
Oakland: 22-10 ATS in tournament games
Youngstown State: 2-8 ATS after playing as an underdog

CIT Tournament, First Round
Savanah State at East Carolina, 7:00 ET
Savannah State: 1-6 ATS in road games
East Carolina: 6-1 ATS off a conference loss

CIT Tournament, First Round
Boston at Loyola Maryland, 7:30 ET
Boston: 12-4 ATS off a SU loss
Loyola MD: 1-7 ATS in first round tournament games

CIT Tournament, First Round
North Dakota at Northern Iowa, 8:00 ET
North Dakota: 6-0 ATS in March
Northern Iowa: 2-9 ATS after having 5 or less offensive rebounds

CIT Tournament, First Round
Tennessee State at Evansville, 7:00 ET
Tennessee State: 12-4 ATS off a conference game
Evansville: 7-29 ATS after having 9 or less assists
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[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, March 19

NCAA play-in games (Tues, Dayton)
North Carolina A&T is #9 team in country in experience, but they tied for 6th in MEAC- they turn ball over 22.5% of time, but force turnovers 23.7% of time, so their games are chaotic. Liberty lost its first 10 games vs D-I games this season; they're 15-20 with three non-D-I wins- they lost to two MEAC teams, to Morgan St by 5, Howard by 7. A&T beat Campbell 85-60, Radford 81-77 in two games vs Big South teams- they don't shoot well (39.2% from arc). Big South is #29 league, MEAC #30. Dogs are 2-1-1 vs spread in these lower play-in game last two years.

Middle Tennessee has to be thrilled to be here after another meltdown in Sun Belt tourney; Blue Raiders have four juniors/four seniors in rotation; they're #2 experienced team in country, are 14-1 in last 15 games- they played #40 non-conference schedule, sub a lot (#12 in bench minutes), but Sun Belt is #19 league, WCC #10. St Mary's is 19-3 last 22 games, with all three losses to Gonzaga; they're 5-2 in other games against top 100 teams- they also sub a lot, but don't defend 3-balls too well (36.9%). Five of Gaels' top six guys are juniors/seniors. Favorites are 2-2 in the upper level play-in games, with last at-large teams to get in.

Other tournaments
There is nothing as futile as trying to handicap these consolation events that run opposite the NCAAs, especially in the first round, because the most important issue is this: Who still wants to be playing? I have no idea who still wants to play; once they play a game or two, then maybe we can come up with something, but for this week, I'd stay away. That said, some very brief notes on these games........

-- Maryland lost by 3 to North Carolina Saturday; Niagara lost by 22-17 to Notre Dame/Bucknell, two best teams they've played- Eagles haven't played in nine days.
-- St John's lost last five games and eight of last ten; St Joe's won its last six home games. Johnnies tossed Harrison, their best player.
-- Louisiana Tech was 16-0 in WAC, then lost last three games, losing in Vegas Thursday. Florida State won its last four home games, three by 4 or less points. Tech has to be a little bit on tilt after late meltdown.
-- Robert Morris is so excited they cancelled classes Tuesday, Kentucky hasn't won a road/neutral game since Noel got hurt. Colonials lost by 5 to Arkansas, by 2 to Xavier, so they shouldn't get crushed here.

-- Northeastern is 3-4 in last seven games, after falling behind by 20 in both first halves at CAA tourney. Alabama lost by 10 to Florida three days ago. Huskies haven't played since last Monday.
-- Norfolk State went 16-0 in MEAC, then lost in tourney; they lost by 22 at NC State of ACC in December. Virginia beat Duke,then lost three of last four games to wind up here- they can't be happy.
-- Denver is 17-2 in last 19 games, losing in first round of WAC tourney in Vegas Thursday. Ohio lost MAC final to Akron Saturday; Princeton offense hard to prepare for on short notice.
-- Washington lost in OT at Pac-12 tourney, lost five of last six true road games. BYU lost three of last four games, hasn't played in 11 days.

-- SF Austin went 16-2 in Southland, but lost in tourney final Saturday; Stanford lost three of last four home games; they lost in OT at Pac-12 tourney Wednesday. SFA won Bracket Buster game at Long Beach.
-- George Mason/Charleston will be CAA rivals next year; Patriots' last five games were all decided by 6 or less points. Charleston won 12 of its last 15 games, but lost SoCon final to Davidson.
-- Lehigh is 3-4 in last seven games, losing last three on road; they upset Duke LY, now an NIT game at Wyoming? Cowboys are 1-6 last seven games, but are 14-0 outside MWC. Both teams missing a key guard.
-- Long trip for Vermont, which lost home game for America East title Saturday. Santa Clara hasn't played in 11 days- they won five of last six home games, went 9-8 in WCC.

-- Rider/Hartford haven't played in 10 days, Broncs since 43-42 loss in MAAC tourney. Hawks went 4-3 this season vs MAAC opponents. Broncs won five of their last six games.
-- Gardner-Webb won by 10-20 points in two games vs OVC foes; they had won seven in row before getting upset in Big South tourney. Eastern Kentucky is 2-3 in last five games, allowing 80+ in all three losses.
-- Fairfield lost four of last six games, scoring 46.7 ppg; they last played nine days ago. Kent State lost by 3 to rival Akron Friday, ending 6-game winning streak- they won last five home games.
-- Oakland is worst defensive team in country, but they beat Valparaiso, best team in Horizon, by hoop at home. Youngstown State is 4-7 in last 11 games; they lost in OT to North Dakota State of Summit.

-- Savannah State turns ball over 27.4% of time, worst in country- they lost by 3-16 points in two games vs C-USA teams. East Carolina is 5-2 this season against teams ranked outside top 200 (Savannah is #219).
-- Boston U/Loyola will be Patriot rivals next year; this is Terriers' first game in 19 days. BU split pair of 8-point decisions vs MAAC outfits. Loyola won by 26-3 in its two games vs America East teams.
-- North Dakota won four of last five games; they blew 12-point lead vs Weber State in Big Sky semis Friday; they lost 72-47 at Northern Iowa back in November. Panthers haven't played in eleven days.
-- Evansville hasn't played in 11 days; they split pair of 12-point games with OVC opponents. Tennessee State turns ball over 22% of the time; they haven't played in eleven days either.

Play-in games (Dayton, Wed)
James Madison's leading scorer Goins is suspended for first half after he was arrested over weekend; Dukes finished 4th in #20 league, are 9-7 in non-league games. LIU won five in row, 15 of last 18 games after 6-game losing skid early in January; Blackbirds beat Hofstra by 4 in only game vs CAA foe- they finished T2 in #24 league, make 38.5% behind the arc (#16 in country). Seven of last eight JMU games were decided by 5 or less points. NEC squads are 2-0 in play-in games, winning by 22-9 in a pair of games vs MEAC teams- they haven't won any other tournament games in last 28 years.

Boise State won at Creighton, lost by 4 at Michigan State, they went 9-8 in MWC, 14-2 outside it; Broncos make 38.7% of 3's (#15 in country), but they're a young team (one senior in rotation) and depend on Marks to be explosive scorer (5-6-38-4-27-14 points last six games). LaSalle is also guard-oriented, making 37.1% behind arc. Unsure if 6-11 Zack will play here (missed last three games); Explorers are 3-2 vs top 60 teams, beating Villanova/VCU/Butler, losing to Miami/Saint Louis. MWC was #3 league this year, A-16 #8. Boise State is 4-7 vs top 60 teams. You'd think this would be a high scoring teams, with teams that can shoot.
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[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Tuesday, March 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
NIAGARA vs. MARYLAND
Niagara is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Niagara is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Maryland's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Maryland's last 15 games

7:00 PM
ST. JOHN'S vs. SAINT JOSEPH'S
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. John's last 8 games on the road
St. John's is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Saint Joseph's is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saint Joseph's last 6 games

7:00 PM
GEORGE MASON vs. COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON
George Mason is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of George Mason's last 5 games on the road
College of Charleston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
College of Charleston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
FAIRFIELD vs. KENT STATE
No trends available
Kent State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kent State's last 5 games

7:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. YOUNGSTOWN STATE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Youngstown State's last 6 games
Youngstown State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

7:00 PM
SAVANNAH STATE vs. EAST CAROLINA
No trends available
East Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of East Carolina's last 5 games

7:15 PM
LOUISIANA TECH vs. FLORIDA STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Louisiana Tech's last 9 games on the road
Louisiana Tech is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Florida State is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games
Florida State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

7:30 PM
KENTUCKY vs. ROBERT MORRIS
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Kentucky's last 25 games on the road
Kentucky is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
No trends available

7:30 PM
BOSTON UNIVERSITY vs. LOYOLA
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Loyola's last 5 games
Loyola is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

8:00 PM
NORTH DAKOTA vs. NORTHERN IOWA
No trends available
Northern Iowa is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Northern Iowa's last 5 games

8:00 PM
TENNESSEE STATE vs. EVANSVILLE
No trends available
Evansville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Evansville's last 7 games

9:00 PM
NORTHEASTERN vs. ALABAMA
Northeastern is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northeastern's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Alabama's last 18 games
Alabama is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games

9:00 PM
NORFOLK STATE vs. VIRGINIA
No trends available
Virginia is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Virginia's last 12 games

9:00 PM
LEHIGH vs. WYOMING
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Wyoming's last 9 games at home
Wyoming is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games

9:10 PM
MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. ST. MARY'S
No trends available
St. Mary's is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
St. Mary's is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games

9:15 PM
OHIO vs. DENVER
Ohio is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Ohio is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home

9:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. BYU
Washington is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
BYU is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
BYU is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games

10:00 PM
VERMONT vs. SANTA CLARA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Santa Clara's last 6 games at home
Santa Clara is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

11:00 PM
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN vs. STANFORD
No trends available
Stanford is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Stanford's last 7 games


MARCH 20, 6:40 PM
LONG ISLAND vs. JAMES MADISON
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 6 of James Madison's last 8 games
James Madison is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

MARCH 20, 9:10 PM
LA SALLE vs. BOISE STATE
No trends available
Boise State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

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NCAAB

Tuesday, March 19

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Tuesday's NCAA play-ins: What bettors need to know
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Liberty Flames vs. North Carolina A&T Aggies (-2, 127)

Liberty’s remarkable journey has given it a chance to do something special. The Flames, who started the season with eight straight losses, play North Carolina A&T in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Tuesday at Dayton, Ohio. If Liberty can win its first NCAA Tournament game in history, it will get a chance at top-seeded Louisville in the second round of the Midwest Region on Thursday. The Flames won their last five games - including their final four to win the Big South tournament and earn their first bid since 2004. They also became the second 20-loss team to qualify.

North Carolina A&T also made an improbable run from the seventh seed in the MEAC tournament to reach the NCAAs for the first time since 1995. The Aggies scored less than 60 points in five of their last seven games - and won six of them. North Carolina A&T is an experienced group, with seven seniors – five of them four-year players.

TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, truTV

ABOUT LIBERTY (15-20): The Flames put it all together in the Big South tournament, beating the three teams with the best regular-season records. Liberty made 36 shots from behind the 3-point arc in the last five games, shooting 48.6 percent. Davon Marshall led the way from long range, draining 23-of-35, and averaging 18 points. John Caleb Sanders also came through with 27 points in the championship game and Tavares Speaks averaged 15 points in the last three. “We played four of our best games in these four games of the tournament,” Sanders told reporters. “Talk about peaking at exactly the right time.”

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA A&T (19-16): The Aggies finally added a 16th MEAC championship banner by limiting eight of their last nine opponents to 57 points or less and finding ways to win. North Carolina A&T had to play good defense. The Aggies are shooting 39.9 percent from the field and just under 30 percent from behind the 3-point line. Senior Adrian Powell and junior Lamont Middleton both stepped up in the last four games, averaging 15.8 and 13.8 points, respectively. Another senior, Austin Witter, had a big championship game. The Aggies will lean on their defense, which allows only 38.3 percent shooting.

TRENDS:

* Flames are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Aggies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Over is 6-1 in Flames’ last seven overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Aggies’ last five neutral site games.

TIP-INS

1. Before the Big South tournament, Liberty had not strung two wins together against Division I tournaments.

2. Liberty is 0-2 in the NCAA Tournament and the Aggies are 0-9.

3. North Carolina A&T started the season 1-4, including a 93-39 loss to Cincinnati.



St. Mary’s Gaels vs. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (+3, 132)

Middle Tennessee’s best season in its history will include a trip to the NCAA Tournament, despite losing in the Sun Belt semifinals. The Blue Raiders earned their first bid in 24 years and will play Saint Mary’s in the first round on Tuesday at Dayton. The winner plays Memphis on Thursday in the second round of the Midwest Region. Middle Tennessee broke the team record for wins, which included a team-best 17 straight. The Blue Raiders, who beat Mississippi in December, are balanced offensively and have limited opponents to 57.8 points.

Three of the six losses for Saint Mary’s came against No. 1 Gonzaga. The Gaels, who have reached the NCAAs four of the last six years, likely punched their ticket by beating Creighton on Feb. 23. The team’s all-time leading scorer, Matthew Dellavedova, is the key for a productive Saint Mary’s offense.

TV: 9:10 p.m. ET, truTV

ABOUT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (28-5): The last time the Blue Raiders made the NCAA Tournament, they upset Florida State in the first round. Middle Tennessee owns a plus-six rebounding margin and has made 37.8 percent of its 3-point shots. Marcos Knight is the only player scoring in double figures (12.5) and also leads the team in rebounds (5.8). Raymond Cintron, who was held scoreless in the last game against Florida International, is the top 3-point threat (44 percent) and Bruce Massey was the league’s defensive player of the year.

ABOUT SAINT MARY’S (27-6): The Gaels haven’t lost to another team other than Gonzaga since before Christmas. Saint Mary’s can score and Dellavedova leads the way, averaging 15.8 points and 6.4 assists. The 6-4 senior guard will have to turn it around after making just 3-of-20 shots in the WCC tournament. Stephen Holt, Beau Levesque and Brad Waldow – all underclassmen – average in double figures to add support. Levesque has made 47.4 percent from behind the 3-point arc, where the Gaels have converted 262 shots – most in the WCC and in the top 25 in the nation.

TRENDS:

* Gaels are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Blue Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four Tuesday games.
* Under is 7-0 in Gaels’ last seven games following an ATS loss.
* Over is 6-0 in Blue Raiders’ last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

TIP-INS

1. Middle Tennessee has won a school-record 11 road games each of the last two seasons.

2. Dellavedova is also the Gaels’ all-time leader in assists and can break the single-season mark of 213 with two more.

3. Saint Mary’s reached the regional semifinals in 2010 before losing to Baylor

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Tuesday, March 19

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Where the action is: Early NCAA tournament line moves
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While the majority of the March Madness money will come in on game days, sharp action has already pushed some of the spreads and totals around for this week’s tournament action. We talk to books about the most notable adjustments.

Big Ten boom

The Big Ten Conference has drawn the most attention from NCAA bettors in the first day of wagering. No. 5 Wisconsin has moved from -4.5 to -5.5 for its matchup with No. 12 Mississippi in a contest of contrasting styles.

According to Dave Mason of BetOnline.ag, this is the most bet-on game of the tournament at his book. The Badgers’ slow-motion offense is also winning over total bettors, rather than the Rebels’ high-scoring attack, with the total dropping to 127.5 points.

No. 3 Michigan State is also drawing sharp money for its second-round matchup with No. 14 Valparaiso in the Midwest Regional. The Spartans were as big as 11-point favorites after opening as low as -10. No. 2 Ohio State is another Big Ten member gaining popularity with bettors, sitting as 13.5-point chalk versus No. 15 Iona in the West Regional.

VCU very popular

The VCU Rams were a fabled Cinderella a few seasons ago but have now moved into the role of sleep contender, tagged as a No. 5 seed in this year’s NCAA tournament. Books opened the Rams as 5.5-point favorites over No. 12 Akron and sharp money ran that spread as high as -7.

“I think value bettors will take Akron at +7 as that’s a lot of points in a game that has an expected total of 138,” Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with Carbonsports.ag, told Covers.

Getting down on Davidson

It was pretty quiet in Las Vegas Monday morning, with books expecting a packed house come Thursday and Friday. But sharp money was hanging around a few teams, like No. 14 Davidson out of the Southern Conference.

The Wildcats moved from +4 to +3 at the MGM Mirage for their opening game against No. 3 Marquette in the East Regional. Davidson is no stranger to major conference programs, having tangled with New Mexico, Gonzaga and Duke this season.

Go-to Gators

The No. 3 seed Florida Gators aren't scaring away bettors with their hefty spread versus No. 14 Northwestern State in the South Regional. Florida opened as low as -19 but has since been bet up to -20.5, with sharp and public action gladly giving the points.

"Sharp money activity spared no time in chiming in, betting some early coin on a couple of second-round games," an oddsmaker for BetDSI.com told Covers. "The betting patterns are interesting with the state of Florida and the Big Ten getting early love from our in-house sharp contingency."

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Tuesday, March 19

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Four Cinderella teams that could bust your NCAA bracket
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One guy’s Cinderella selection is another guy’s bracket buster. These four programs will likely leave more than a few crumpled NCAA tournament bets and bracket pools on the ground when March Madness is all said and done with.

Don’t say we didn’t warn you…

South Dakota State Jackrabbits +50,000 (25-9 SU, 16-13-0 ATS)

The Jackrabbits drew a No. 13 seed and a date with No. 4 Michigan (-11) in the second round, giving college basketball fans one of the best head-to-head scoring matchups in the tournament: Nate Wolters vs. Trey Burke.

South Dakota State nearly knocked off Baylor in the opening game of last year’s tournament and scored a win over New Mexico this season. The Wolverines aren’t playing their best ball right now, having covered the spread just twice in their last 10 games.

Bucknell Bison +20,000 (28-5 SU, 2-4 ATS)

Bucknell was tabbed as a No. 11 seed out of the Patriot League and has a favorable matchup with No. 6 Butler in the second round. The Bison are paced by one of the best big men in the country, Mike Muscala, who averages 19 points and 11.2 rebounds per game.

Behind center Andrew Smith, the Bulldogs don’t have much in terms of size and could be exposed down low by Muscala. Not only that, but the 6-foot-11, 239-pound senior can stretch the defense with his 3-point range. Beyond Butler, the Bison could run into an undersized Marquette team or Davidson in the Round of 32.

Iowa State Cyclones +10,000 (22-11 SU, 15-13-0 ATS)

The Cyclones can run any team in the country out of the gym with their guard-heavy lineup and Notre Dame is cut from a similar cloth. While the Irish are bigger than ISU, they rely heavily on their guard play and can easily get sucked into a track meet.

Iowa State can break games wide open with its 3-point shooting, which is evident by its 20-4 over/under record. If the Cyclones can get past Notre Dame, they would meet Ohio State or Iona in the Round of 32. Beyond that, ISU’s high-powered offense could carry it to meetings with New Mexico, Harvard, Arizona or Belmont in the Sweet 16.

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles +100,000 (24-10 SU, 4-0 ATS)

Mismatches in style are what make the NCAA tournament great, and the No. 2 vs. No. 15 meeting between Florida Gulf Coast and Georgetown is that to the extreme. The Eagles average more than 73 points per game behind a quick-fire scoring attack, compared to the Hoyas’ methodical Princeton offense.

Georgetown has the edge in size and big-game experience but Florida Gulf Coast already has a victory over another No. 2 seed – defeating Miami 63-51 in November – and took on Duke, VCU, and Iowa State in non-conference play this season. It’s not crazy to think the Eagles can upset the Hoyas. Two No. 15 seeds advanced last March.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Tuesday, March 19

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NCAA tourney early round betting trends
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The 2013 NCAA Tournament has arrived and with it a final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season.

To make that shining moment happen, let’s take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past.

Because it’s my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is tantamount to breaking the action down into rounds, let’s take a look at some of the more relevant and most recent first round betting trends.

Here are notes from the 2013 PLAYBOOK NCAA Tournament guide. Note all results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise. Abbreviations: ATS (Against The Spread), SU (Straight Up).

BRACKET BUSTING

If your dream of designs is completing the perfect bracket (read: picking every winner in every game), enjoy the dream.

You have a better chance of winning 50 Powerball lotteries in your lifetime!

Since expanding to 64 teams in 1985, the odds of randomly picking a perfect bracket sheet are one in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 – or better than one in nine quintillion.

Hint: you can reduce the odds to one in 13.5 billion simply by picking the No. 1 seeds over the No. 16 seeds in the first round and going from there.

Now that you’re feeling better about your chances, concentrate, instead on picking the Final Four teams. That’s 16 to the fourth power, or one in 65,536.

Incidentally, there have been only seven teams seeded lower than No. 6 to reach the Final Four since 1985: 1985 Villanova (8), 1986 LSU (11), 2000 North Carolina (8), 2000 Wisconsin (8), 2006 George Mason (11), 2011 Butler (8) and 2011 VCU (11).

For what it’s worth, Sheldon Jacobson, a computer science professor at the University of Illinois, informs us the most likely Final Four seed combination is 1, 1, 2, 3. The odds against this occurring are about 16 to 1. It has happened three times in the past 28 years. Chalk artists beware: the odds of all four No.1 seeds reaching the Final Four: 47.5 to 1.

And long shot lovers note: the odds of a No. 16 seed reaching the Final Four: 828 to 1. The odds of all four No. 16 seeds reaching the Final Four: about one trillion to 1.


PLANTING THE SEED

• No. 1 seeds are 88-0 SU and 50-37-1 ATS vs. No. 16 seeds, including 16-3 ATS if favored by fewer than 10 points off back-to-back SU wins.

• No. 2 seeds are 82-6 SU and 37-47-4 ATS vs. No. 15 seeds, including 11-25-4 ATS vs. foes off a SU win.

• No. 3 seeds are 78-10 SU and 47-39-2 ATS vs. No. 14 seeds, including 34-1 SU & 26-8-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss.

• No. 4 seeds are 69-19 SU and 49-38-1 ATS vs. No. 13 seeds, including 34-16 ATS as favorites of less than 10 points.

• No. 5 seeds are 57-31 SU and 43-45 ATS vs. No. 12 seeds, including 9-6 SU and 6-9 ATS the last four years. In addition, No. 12 seeds that participated in last year’s event are 21-16 SU against No. 5’s dating back to 1985. Those who did not play in this tournament the previous season are 17-58 SU in this round. FYI: a No. 12 seed has failed to beat a No. 5 seed only twice since 1988.

• No. 6 seeds are 60-28 SU and 47-39-2 ATS vs. No. 11 seeds, including 9-8 SU and 4-12-1 ATS vs. an opponent off an ATS win of more than seven points.

• No. 7 seeds are 49-39 SU and 46-41-1 ATS vs. No. 10 seeds, including 1-7 SU and ATS 1-7 ATS when off back-to-back SU losses.

• No. 8 seeds are 43-45 SU and 42-44-2 ATS vs. No. 9 seeds, including 8-14 SU and 7-15 ATS as favorites of three or more points.

Pete Tiernan of Bracketscience.com reminds us that since 1985, No. 5 and 6 seeds own identical 74-38 SU marks against No. 12 and 11 seeds respectively.

FIRST ROUND NOTES

Conference tournament champs most recent trends in this round (numbers all ATS):

ACC: 3-1-1, Atlantic 10: 2-4, Big Ten: 4-2, Big 12: 0-3, Big East: 5-1, Big West: 1-6, Colonial: 7-4, C-USA: 1-5, Horizon: 4-1, MAC: 3-0, Missouri Valley: 2-5-1, Mountain West: 4-1-1, Pac-12: 5-2, Sun Belt: 3-2, SEC: 2-3, WAC: 2-6, West Coast: 2-5.ß

Best team records (SU) in this round

N Carolina: 10-0, Kansas: 6-0, Pittsburgh: 6-0, Wisconsin: 6-0, UCLA: 5-0, Gonzaga: 5-0, Kansas State: 5-0, NC State: 5-0, Syracuse: 4-0, Duke: 14-1, Cincinnati 10-1.

Worst team records (SU) in this round

New Mexico State: 0-5, Minnesota: 0-4, UNLV: 0-3, San Diego State: 1-4, Temple: 1-4.

Best team ATS records in this round

VCU: 5-0, Kansas State: 4-0, NC State: 4-0, St. Louis: 4-0, Western Kentucky: 4-0, Cincinnati: 3-0, Butler: 8-1, Indiana: 5-1.

Worst team ATS records in this round

Oregon: 0-7, Temple: 0-5, Minnesota: 0-4, Creighton: 1-5, Notre Dame: 1-5, Villanova: 1-5, Memphis: 1-4.

Best conference ATS records in this round

Big Ten: 11-2, Pac-12: 8-2, Horizon: 9-3, MAC: 9-2 dogs, Colonial: 10-5.

Worst conference ATS records in this round

CUSA: 1-6, Big West: 1-5, Ivy: 2-11, Big 12: 3-9.


MOST RECENT ‘ANY ROUND’ TRENDS

• Favorites of seven or more points who are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last three games are 14-31 ATS vs. foes off a SU win… and 16-5 ATS vs. an opponent off a SU loss.

• Favorites of 20 or more points with a win percentage of less than .880 are 2-14-1 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win.

• Favorites of more than seven points who scored 100 points or more in their last game are 19-7 ATS, including 14-2 ATS the last sixteen games.

• Underdogs of four or more points playing off a SU post-season tourney win as a dog of six or more points are 14-37-1 ATS since 2000.

If this is not enough to get your blood flowing then you may be seriously in need of a cardiologist. I’ll be back next week with a look at Sweet 16 and Elite Eight round action.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB


Tuesday, March 19

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Four NIT-bound teams that don't give a crap
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In the back corner of the March Madness party sits the NIT – National Invitation Tournament. It’s the Garfunkel of the college hoops’ postseason, a second-tier tournament that offers a diluted shot at glory to those programs not good enough for the NCAA tournament.

Some teams jump at the chance to extend their season while others, especially those who had their bubbles burst on Selection Sunday, couldn’t give two craps about the NIT. Bettors can find serious value fading these half-hearted programs when the NIT kicks off Tuesday.

Northeastern Huskies (20-12 SU, 14-13-0 ATS)

Northeastern entered the CAA tournament with high expectations, coming off its first regular season title. But poor starts plagued the Huskies in the conference tournament and cost them a NCAA bid with a loss to James Madison in the final. Northeastern really believed this was its year, especially after VCU left for the Atlantic 10. Now, the Huskies travel to Tuscaloosa to play Alabama as 12.5-point underdogs.

Stanford Cardinal (18-14 SU, 13-16-1 ATS)

You’ll forgive the Cardinal if they don’t seem all that excited about hosting the opening-round game of the NIT. Stanford has been there and done that, having won last year’s National Invitation Tournament. It could become just the third program to win back-to-back NIT titles, but that’s about as motivating as getting a sucker after a visit to the dentist. After balancing school and hoops and more school, the Cardinal might be disinterested with No. 5 Stephen F. Austin (+8.5) Tuesday.

Baylor Bears (18-14 SU, 13-14-0 ATS)

Baylor put all it had into a late-season NCAA push. The Bears fought to the finish in the Big 12, taking a win over KU in the season finale and nearly knocking off Oklahoma State in the conference tournament. The NIT is a sour taste for Scott Drew’s troops. Baylor has put together some deep NCAA runs in recent years and now is left to host Long Beach State, which played UNC, USC, Arizona, Syracuse, Ohio State and UCLA in non-conference play. Books have Baylor as a 13.5-point favorite in Waco.

Kentucky Wildcats (21-11 SU, 11-18-0 ATS)

I’m sure when John Calipari pitched playing at Kentucky to his star recruits, the word “NIT” didn’t come up once. Not only are the Wildcats prime for a letdown, with their young talent more focused on the upcoming NBA Draft, but the No. 1 seed won’t even have home-court advantage in its opening game with Robert Morris. Since Rupp Arena is being used for the NCAA, they will be traveling to Pittsburgh. Books have set Kentucky as a slight 5.5-point road favorite in what should be a rocking Charles L. Sewall Center Tuesday

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, March 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Liberty - 6:40 PM ET Liberty +3 500
No.Carolina A&T -

St. John's - 7:00 PM ET St. Joseph's -7 500
St. Joseph's -

Niagara - 7:00 PM ET Maryland -10.5 500
Maryland -

George Mason - 7:00 PM ET George Mason +4 500
Charleston -

Eastern Kentucky - 7:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky -2 500
Gardner-Webb -

Savannah State - 7:00 PM ET East Carolina -6.5 500 POD # 5
East Carolina -

Rider - 7:00 PM ET Rider -1 500
Hartford -

Oakland - 7:05 PM ET Oakland +4.5 500 POD # 6
Youngstown St. -

Louisiana Tech - 7:15 PM ET Louisiana Tech +3 500
Florida St. -

Kentucky - 7:30 PM ET Robert Morris +3.5 500
Robert Morris -

Boston U - 7:30 PM ET Loyola-Maryland -7.5 500
Loyola-Maryland -

Tennessee St. - 8:00 PM ET Evansville -8.5 500
Evansville -

Northeastern - 9:00 PM ET Alabama -11 500 POD # 4
Alabama -

Norfolk State - 9:00 PM ET Norfolk State +15.5 500
Virginia -

Lehigh - 9:00 PM ET Lehigh +5.5 500
Wyoming -

St. Mary's - 9:10 PM ET St. Mary's -3 500
Middle Tennessee St. -

Ohio - 9:15 PM ET Denver -7 500 POD # 2
Denver -

Washington - 9:30 PM ET Brigham Young -6 500
Brigham Young -

Vermont - 10:00 PM ET Vermont +8.5 500
Santa Clara -

Stephen F. Austin - 11:00 PM ET Stephen F. Austin +7 500 POD # 1
Stanford -