The Bum's College Basketball Best Bets Thru March Madess !

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Now that sucked Kapt.......DOG and OVER......

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Joke's on sports bettors when it comes to NCAA hypocrisy


Back in early March, the major pro sports leagues and the NCAA had scored the first touchdown in the battle to stop New Jersey’s bid to legalize and tax sports betting.

The court ruled to uphold 1992’s Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992, which bans sports betting in all but four states.

“The NCAA maintains that the spread of legalized sports wagering is a threat to the integrity of athletic competition and student-athlete well-being,” wrote Donald Remy in an email to the media after the decision, the NCAA’s head legal officer. “We hope the decision in this case is a step in the direction of preventing that from happening.”

It was a typical message throughout the proceedings: sports bettors are a dodgy breed who would trade integrity just to make a few bucks.

The nice thing about the NCAA is you never have to wait long for its preaching rhetoric to blow back in its face in a heap of hypocrisy.

In this case it only took a couple weeks. It was then during the Pac-12 basketball tournament that Ed Rush, head supervisor of basketball officials, offered $5,000 or a trip to Cancun to give Arizona coach Sean Miller a technical foul.

Miller was in fact teed up with less than five minutes to play in Zona’s next game against UCLA. The call turned the game around while Arizona spread and moneyline bettors watched their money disappear in a 66-64 Bruins upset as 4-point underdogs.

This wasn’t a sports betting syndicate out of Singapore that affected the outcome of this game with promises of cash and rewards before tip-off. It was the Pac-12, one of the six biggest leagues in the NCAA.

Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott said afterward the league investigated the incident and brushed the comments off as being made “in jest”.

“As part of that banter and discussion (about calling more T’s on coaches) this discussion was had about ‘What do I gotta do to get you guys to enforce the rules? Do I have to give you guys rewards? Do I have to give you a trip? Do I have to give you money?"

That’s a softened version of the unnamed official’s take, who blew the whistle on this incident to CBSSports.com, and even what Rush admitted he said on Thursday after he resigned amid the controversy.

"Ed Rush doesn't joke," one official told ESPN.com. "To say it was a joke is absolutely not true. If he meant it in jest, then he had time to correct it the second day and he didn't. And the only coach he mentioned was Sean Miller."

Friday’s ESPN story said “officials confirmed that Rush made the ‘joke’ twice in a meeting during the Pac-12 tournament and then again that Friday after Arizona played UCLA.”

“In an effort just to lighten the mood,” Rush said Friday, “ I said to them, 'Hey, guys. What's it going to take? Do you think we could give you a trip to Cancun or maybe $5,000? Or who wants what? And now they're all laughing, which is basically what I wanted to do. So I said, 'I know you guys, you probably want $5,000, you want the money, you won't take the trip to Cancun.' So I'm going around, 'What would you take?' At that point, I said, 'By the way, you know my wife's not going to go for this. I'm going to have to pull this off the table.'”

I don’t know exactly what Rush said or how many times he said it. And I do believe he made the comments in jest and there are probably some disgruntled officials who wanted him out of there.

That doesn’t change the fact that his comments impacted the outcome of the game and both Arizona and bettors got hosed because the game’s integrity was compromised.

And when the Pac-12 had a chance to correct it, they didn’t. Despite the fact they love pointing fingers at everyone else when it comes to integrity. It’s a disturbing level of hypocrisy that we see far too often from the NCAA.

Sports bettors want betting legalized because we want betting to be above board, not the opposite. And eventually, it will happen.

Unfortunately, it’s the integrity of the game on the court that we’ll likely always have to worry about when we're walking up to the betting counter – and the NCAA is doing a fine job of keeping things that way on its own.

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Louisville-Wichita State pointspread a historically big number

The pointspread that has Louisville favored by 10.5 points over Wichita State (as of Friday) in this weekend's Final Four matchup isn't the highest Final Four number ever.

But it's close.

The only higher spread in a Final Four matchup going back to 1998 - as far as our data goes - came in 1999 when Duke was -11 against Michigan State. Michigan State covered the number in that one in a 68-62 loss.

Those are the only two double-digit spreads going back the past 16 years. After that the next biggest number was considerably farther behind at 8.5, which Kentucky was favored by twice - once in 1998 and once in 2012.

The Wildcats failed to cover in both those games and for whatever it's worth, the underdog is 4-1 ATS (against the spread) in the five Final Four games with the biggest spreads in that time period.

Rounding out the top 10 biggest Final Four spreads are:
UNC -8 1998 (didn't cover)
Michigan State -8 2000 (covered)
Oklahoma -7 2002 (didn't cover)
UNC -7 2009 (covered)
Florida -6 2006 (covered)

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Where the action is: Saturday's Final Four line moves

Bettors have been patiently waiting for Saturday’s next chapter in the NCAA tournament and Final Four action is starting to heat up at sportsbooks.

We check in with Terry Cox, director of race and sportsbook at the Peppermill Resort Spa Casino in Reno, and online sportsbook BetDSI on the action for the much-anticipated showdowns in Atlanta.

Wichita State Shockers vs. Louisville Cardinals – Open: -10, Move: -10.5

Bettors aren’t surprised the top-ranked Cardinals have cruised into the Final Four, but nobody predicted the Shockers would fight their way to Atlanta. Heavy action is coming in Louisville at a rate of 2-to-1 at the Peppermill with the public backing the Cardinals.

“Our clients love the favorites,” Cox told Covers. “Even the double-digit dogs don’t scare them away.”

Although money continues to pour in on Louisville, Cox likes Wichita State’s chances of a back door cover.

“Louisville has added incentive with what happened to the Ware kid, but I would give the motivational edge to Wichita,” Cox notes. “They have nothing to lose and Louisville can only fail. They are expected to win it all.”

Michigan Wolverines vs. Syracuse Orange – Open: +2.5, Move: +2

This game was a suggested pick ‘em by the Nevada-based oddsmaking service The Sports Club. But many Vegas books opened tTrey Burke and the
Wolverines as 2.5-point favorites. That line has since moved to Michigan -2 where it has leveled out. The Wolverines are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the tourney to this point.

“It’s scary how evenly bet this one is,” says Cox. “It’s pretty well right down the middle on the moneyline.”

Online books are reporting the same betting trends.

"Out of the thousands of tickets bet there is a difference of eight tickets on the Michigan-Syracuse game and a difference of less than 50K," says an oddsmaker from BetDSI. "Sharps haven't touched this game at all, sides or totals."

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Scouting the Opponent: Final Four betting storylines

We're less than 24 hours until the Final Four begins in Atlanta, so we've scanned the Internet to shed some light on storylines that will impact how the games are played, and possibly how you place your wagers.

Wichita State vs. Louisville (-10.5, 133) 6:09 p.m. ET

Louisville: Eamonn Brennan of ESPN.com has an in-depth story on what makes the Cardinals good offensively and defensively with the help of a coach's eye.

Villanova assistant coach Billy Lange described what he thought was the best approach to playing Louisville:

We were talking about one specific aspect of Louisville's style -- in this case its amorphous matchup-zone defense -- and Lange was explaining that the Cardinals are so good on that end of the floor, and so able to switch defense on a whim, that you can't really devise a game plan with sets and quick-hitters the way you can most normal defenses. You have to settle for giving your players broad concepts -- protect the ball, make the extra pass, penetrate and kick -- and hope they can get it from Point A to Point B without being micromanaged.

Lange said that a team's instincts are going to be important to beat Louisville down the court. He says clearly:

"If you get robotic against them, they're going to eat you alive," Lange said. "They're going to kick your [butt]. I mean they'll just straight-up kick your [butt]."

Wichita State: "They're Marquette on steroids," Louisville coach Rick Pitino said to describe Wichita State's defense at the Final Four media interviews.

"If you grab an offensive rebound, they slap it away," he said. "They don't let you go into the paint without four guys attacking you. They are the toughest team to score against."

Pitino's sentiments were justified by C.L. Brown of The Courier-Journal:

The Shockers (30-8) held West Regional top seed Gonzaga -- a team that shot 50.1 percent for the season -- to just 35.6 percent. They frustrated the Bulldogs' top two scorers, making Kelly Olynyk take 22 shots to net 26 points and holding Elias Harris to 2-of-8 shooting.

After dispatching Gonzaga 76-70, the Shockers dismantled No. 2 Ohio State in the regional final in a similar fashion. They held the Buckeyes to a season-low 22 points in the first half.

Wichita State is holding opponents to 34 percent field goal shooting and 25 percent 3-point shooting in the tournament. Which led Pitino to say this:

"I'll say this without any exaggeration," he said. "They're the best team we will have faced this year at the defensive end."

Michigan vs. Syracuse (2, 131) 8:49 p.m. ET

Syracuse: There are only a few guarantees in life: death, taxes, Christmas falls on December 25, and Syracuse will play a 2-3 zone defense. The Orange's defense has been out of this world in the tournament, holding teams to 45.8 points a game, on 29 percent shooting from the field and 15 percent from beyond the arc.

But the question posed by Bud Poliquin of Syracuse.com, why doesn't everyone follow head coach Jim Boeheim's lead and play the 2-3 exclusively?

"I don't know," answered [assistant coach Mike] Hopkins. "Maybe coaches are on Page 172 of 'The Coaching Handbook' and it says, 'Thou shalt not play zone.' It's amazing, really, because the zone wins. I mean, just look around."

"Coach has revolutionized it," Hopkins declared. "It's not normal. He sees it differently. He's changed everything. It's not like, 'Hey, let's stand around and wave our arms and call it a zone.' There are reads and rotations and reactions. You need IQ guys to play it. It's like the batter who can hit a 100-miles-per-hour fastball. Not everybody can do it."

Why are the pieces at Syracuse's disposal suited for playing the zone at a high level?

"You've got a fifth-year senior (James Southerland) and a junior (C.J. Fair) at the forward spot," explained Mike Hopkins, Boeheim's chief aide. "You've got a guy like Baye (Moussa Keita) who's played a lot of minutes in the middle with Rakeem (Christmas). We go 6-foot-6 and 6-foot-5 in the backcourt where Brandon (Triche) is a senior and Michael (Carter-Williams) is a gargantuan. And Jerami Grant has picked it up better than any freshman I've ever seen."

Michigan: Knowing what he is going against on Saturday, Michigan head coach John Beilein is preparing his team accordingly for the zone.

He was using his reserves, including 6-foot-10 forward Blake McLimans, to play at the top of the zone to simulate the length that they will see with Orange 6-foot-6 point guard Michael Carter-Williams.

Writes Everett Cook of Michigandaily.com:

On top of that, Michigan coach John Beilein implemented a new drill for his perimeter players. A whistle sounded during offensive run throughs, and whichever Wolverine had the ball had to jack up a shot, even if they were three to four fee behind the 3-point line.

Michigan freshman guard Nik Stauskas drained all six 3-point shots against Florida in the Elite Eight and if they shoot at their tournament average of 40.2 percent from behind the arc, they have a good chance of busting the zone. Stauskas also believed its a positive to have a week to prepare for the new defense.

"Before, we got like 36 hours to cram in all this information," Stauskas said. "Sometimes, when you're sitting in film for a couple hours, all the information doesn't really sink in just because it's so much at once. Dividing it up over five or six days makes it a lot easier to take in.

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Wichita State vs. Louisville: What bettors need to know

Wichita State Shockers vs. Louisville Cardinals (-10, 133)

Louisville overcame a gruesome injury to one of its best players and ended up dominating Duke to reach the Final Four. To earn a spot in the championship game, the top-seeded Cardinals will have to get by Cinderella Wichita State on Saturday in the NCAA Tournament in Atlanta. The Shockers had a surprisingly easy run to the Final Four, knocking off top-seeded Gonzaga in the third round and running out to a big lead before holding off second-seeded Ohio State in the Elite 8.

The Cardinals will bring Kevin Ware with them to Atlanta and will draw inspiration from their fallen teammate, who encouraged his teammates to win even as his tibia was coming through the skin in the first half of the Elite 8 win over the Blue Devils. Ware is out of the hospital and is making his way around on crutches. Wichita doesn’t have that type of story to capture the media’s attention, but it does have a solid defensive team that will try to throttle the Cardinals’ high-octane offense. The Shockers have a balanced offense and is a strong rebounding team that will try to keep Louisville from getting out on the break.

TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, CBS

ABOUT WICHITA STATE (30-8): The Shockers are the first Missouri Valley Conference team to reach the Final Four since Larry Bird’s Indiana State team in 1979 and will be trying to become the first ninth seed to reach the National Championship game. Wichita State has played two Big East teams this season and easily handled them both, knocking off DePaul 75-62 on Nov. 20 and coasting by Pittsburgh 73-55 in the NCAA Tournament opener. Shockers guard Tekele Cotton shut down Panthers point guard Tray Woodall in that matchup and will be trying to do the same against Peyton Siva and Russ Smith on Saturday. Wichita led by as many as 20 points in the second half against Ohio State before holding on down the stretch. Cotton hit a key 3-pointer in the final minutes and Malcolm Armstead led the way with 14 points in the 70-66 triumph. The Shockers limited the Buckeyes to 31.1 percent from the field and will need a similar defensive effort to stick with the Cardinals.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (33-5): The Cardinals, who are the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, have done nothing to suggest that the lofty ranking is anything but accurate. With Ware out, the main issue will be keeping starting point guard Siva out of foul trouble Saturday. Siva runs the break and leads a team with more speed than any other remaining squad. Smith has used his speed to evade defenders and score 20 or more points in each of the four NCAA Tournament games. The Ware injury robs Louisville of some of its depth, but the Cardinals will still go eight or nine players deep to keep the full-court press and transition offense fresh. Louisville center Gorgui Dieng has added a different element to his offensive game with a 15-foot jump shot and has gone 20-for-24 from the field in the Tournament to go along with 30 rebounds and 10 blocked shots. Coach Rick Pitino is making his seventh Final Four appearance - second straight - and will be trying to win the National Championship for the first time since guiding Kentucky in 1996.

TRENDS:

* Shockers are 4-0 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Cardinals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Shockers’ last five overall.
* Over is 8-0 in Cardinals’ last eight overall.

TIP-INS

1. Louisville has won 14 straight games and needs one more to set a school record for wins in a season.

2. Wichita State is in the Final Four for the first time since 1965.

3. The Cardinals have shot at least 50 percent from the field in each of their four NCAA Tournament games.

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Michigan vs. Syracuse: What bettors need to know


Michigan Wolverines vs. Syracuse Orange (1.5, 131)

Syracuse’s zone defense has caused plenty of problems for opposing offenses during the NCAA Tournament. Trey Burke and Michigan will try to solve that zone when the schools meet in the Final Four in Atlanta on Saturday. Burke against Orange point guard Michael Carter-Williams is a matchup that should have NBA scouts salivating, and the two have put together some of their best performances while guiding their teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Burke carried his team back from a 14-point deficit in the second half and hit an NBA-range 3-pointer to send the game to overtime against Kansas in the Sweet 16 before settling for 15 points, eight rebounds and seven assists in a surprisingly easy victory over Florida in the Elite 8. The Orange will put Carter-Williams and Brandon Triche at the top of its zone and try to force Burke and the rest of the Wolverines to settle for jump shots. Syracuse held a team that was familiar with that zone - Big East foe Marquette - to 22.6 percent shooting in the Elite Eight victory and has limited three of its four NCAA Tournament opponents to 50 or fewer points, including two to fewer than 40.

TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, CBS

ABOUT SYRACUSE (30-9): The Orange got run off the floor by Louisville in the Big East tournament but have successfully controlled the pace during each of their four NCAA Tournament games. Carter-Williams and Triche have formed a wall at the top of the zone that has allowed James Southerland and C.J. Fair to close out on shooters while big men Rakeem Christmas and Baye Keita stay home in the middle. Syracuse allowed the Golden Eagles to make 12 field goals in the Elite Eight and Carter-Williams has racked up nine steals in the last two games. Offensively, Carter-Williams has picked his spots to shoot or distribute. The sophomore went 3-of-6 from 3-point range en route to 24 points against Indiana in the Sweet 16 but focused more on his distribution responsibilities in the 55-39 Elite 8 win over Marquette, handing out six assists while scoring 12 points. Fair was Syracuse’s leading scorer in the regular season and has averaged 13.8 points in the Tournament.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (30-7): The Wolverines are making their first trip to the Final Four since the Fab Five took the college basketball world by storm with back-to-back championship game appearances in 1992 and 1993. The 2012-13 edition of the team bears a small resemblance to the Fab Five, with athletic wing players, strong outside shooting and a big man in Mitch McGary that is willing to do the little things. McGary’s hard screens won’t be as effective against a zone defense that will likely avoid chasing Burke and company off screens, but the Wolverines will still count on McGary’s rebounding to start the break or clean up the misses on the offensive end. Should the game turn into a jump-shooting contest, Michigan guard Nik Stauskas went 6-for-6 from 3-point range against Florida and has connected on 44.9 percent from beyond the arc in a strong freshman campaign. The Wolverines have averaged 78.8 points in the Tournament and can turn to Tim Hardaway Jr. or Glenn Robinson III if Stauskas struggles from the perimeter or Burke can’t get into the lane against the zone.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 4-0 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last six Saturday games.
* Over is 5-1 in Wolverines’ last six games following an ATS win.
* Wolverines are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

TIP-INS

1. Syracuse is in the Final Four for the first time since the Carmelo Anthony-led 2003 team won the National Championship.

2. Michigan is 17-0 against non-conference opponents but coach John Beilein, who spent five years as a coach in the Big East with West Virginia, is 0-9 all-time against Syracuse.

3. The winner will face Louisville or Wichita State in the National Championship game Monday.

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NCAAB

Dunkel

SATURDAY, APRIL 6

Game 815-816: Michigan vs. Syracuse (8:49 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 76.680; Syracuse 71.864
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 5; 127
Vegas Line: Michigan by 2; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-2); Under

Game 817-818: Wichita State vs. Louisville (6:09 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 69.176; Louisville 81.395
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 12; 129
Vegas Line: Louisville by 10 1/2; 132
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-10 1/2); Under

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Saturday, April 6

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MICHIGAN (30 - 7) vs. SYRACUSE (30 - 9) - 4/6/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
MICHIGAN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
MICHIGAN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
MICHIGAN is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
SYRACUSE is 1-0 straight up against MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WICHITA ST (30 - 8) vs. LOUISVILLE (33 - 5) - 4/6/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 23-15 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 23-15 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOUISVILLE is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
WICHITA ST is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1997.
WICHITA ST is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
WICHITA ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WICHITA ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAB

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Trend Report
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Saturday, April 6

6:05 PM
WICHITA STATE vs. LOUISVILLE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisville's last 5 games
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

8:49 PM
MICHIGAN vs. SYRACUSE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Syracuse's last 6 games
Syracuse is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

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Saturday, April 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Wichita St. - 6:09 PM ET Wichita St. +10 500 POD # 1
Louisville - Over 133 500

Michigan - 8:49 PM ET Syracuse +1.5 500 POD # 2
Syracuse - Under 131 500

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Michigan vs. Syracuse

April 5, 2013


Editor's note: Since March 28, Brian Edwards is on an 11-3 run in college hoops for 8.92 units of profit. Going back further, Brian owns a 57-35 record (62%, +1972) since Feb. 21. Don't miss out on tonight's pick package.

Thirty minutes after the conclusion of Louisville-Wichita St. in Saturday’s lid-lifter at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Michigan and Syracuse will meet in the other national-semifinals matchup.

As of early Friday evening, most books had Michigan (30-7 SU, 18-16-1 ATS) favored by two with a total of 131. The Wolverines are one-point ‘chalk’ for first-half wagers.

For bettors extremely bullish on Michigan, Bovada has a proposition wager in which you can lay 8 ½ points on the Wolverines for a +250 payout (risk $100 to win $250). On the flip side, gamblers can back Syracuse as a 4.5-point favorite for a +225 return.

Bovada also has alternate totals. Bettors can take ‘over’ 137.5 for a +175 payday or they can go ‘under’ 124.5 (+175).

John Beilein’s team has dominated three of its four NCAA Tournament foes. Michigan has dealt out ruthless beatings to VCU and Florida and it also bested South Dakota St. in the opening round.

In the South Region semifinals at Cowboys Stadium last Friday night, Trey Burke led a furious rally to force overtime against Kansas. Michigan eventually captured an 87-85 victory as a 1.5-point underdog.

Burke scored all 23 of his points in the second half and overtime, including an audacious 30-footer from beyond the time line to tie the game with five seconds left in regulation. Burke also dished out 10 assists, while freshman center Mitch McGary exploded for a career-high 25 points and 14 rebounds.

The Wolverines raced out to leads of 13-0, 23-5 and 41-17 en route to a 79-59 win over Florida as 2.5-point underdogs on Sunday. Nik Stauskas snapped out of a shooting slump to bury all six of his attempts from 3-point land on his way to a 22-point effort.

Syracuse (30-9 SU, 20-15 ATS) advanced to the Final Four for the fourth time on Jim Boeheim’s watch thanks to last Saturday’s 55-39 win over Marquette as a 4.5-point favorite. The 94 combined points stayed way ‘under’ the 126.5-point total.

James Southerland paced the ‘Cuse with a game-high 16 points. C.J. Fair added 13 points, six rebounds, three steals and a pair of blocked shots, while Michael Carter-Williams finished with 12 points, eight boards and six assists.

The Orange’s other NCAA wins came over Montana (81-34), California (66-60) and Indiana (61-50). But this team’s surge started in the Big East Tournament with three wins before a loss to Louisville in the finals. The ‘Cuse led the Cardinals by 17 late in the first half but went cold offensively in the second half of the defeat.

Michigan owns a 6-7 spread record in 13 games as a single-digit favorite this year. Meanwhile, Syracuse has been an underdog seven times, compiling a 4-3 record both SU and ATS.

The ‘over’ is 21-14 overall for Michigan, 12-8 in its 20 games with a total in the 130s.

The ‘under’ is 18-15 overall for the Orange, going 3-1 in its last four games. The ‘over’ is 7-6 in Syracuse’s 13 games with totals in the 130s.

These schools last met at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City two seasons ago with the ‘Cuse winning a 53-50 decision. However, the Wolverines took the cash as 6.5-point underdogs.

Although we should note that Boeheim had superior talent in nearly every instance, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that Boeheim is unbeaten in nine head-to-head meetings against Beilein.

Boeheim has a 52-28 career record (65%) in the NCAA Tournament compared to Beilein’s 12-7 ledger (63%).

Sportsbook.ag has prop wagers galore for both semifinal matchups. The website has Burke with an ‘over/under’ of 18.5 points that’s shaded to the ‘under’ at a -130 price (even-money for ‘over’ bets). Burke’s total for assists is seven (-115 either way) and rebounds is 3.5 (‘over’ -130).

Tim Hardaway Jr.’s total for points is 13.5 (‘over’ -120), rebounds is 4.5 (-115 either way) and assists is three (-115 either way). I like the ‘over’ for Hardaway as I anticipate him scoring at least 14 points.

Also, I like ‘over’ 11.5 points (-130 price) for Michigan's McGary, who has averaged 17.5 points per game during the NCAA Tournament. McGary scored 21 against VCU and dropped 25 on Kansas.

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Louisville vs. Michigan

April 7, 2013

The 2013 NCAA Tournament will culminate Monday night at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta where Louisville (34-5 straight up, 23-16 against the spread) and Michigan will collide for the national championship.

Just before midnight Eastern late Saturday night, most books opened the Cardinals as either four or 4.5-point favorites. After the first hour of betting, most betting shops had settled at four while the Mirage, Stations and several offshores adjusted to 3.5.

By lunch on Sunday, nearly all books had U of L favored by four with a total of 137.5 or 138. Gamblers can take the Wolverines on the money line for a +160 return (risk $100 to win $160).

For first-half wagers, Rick Pitino’s team is a two-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 63.5.

Speaking of Pitino, what a week this dude has had! (Good thing he decided not to retire after losing to Morhead St. two years ago, right?)

In the span of a week, Pitino’s 30-year old son, Richard, was hired as the new head coach at Minnesota. Also, the elder Pitino was selected to the Hall of Fame and his team rallied from a 12-point second-half deficit to beat Wichita St. for the right to cut the nets down Monday night.

But wait, that’s not all! You see, Pitino owns horses and one of his ponies (Goldencents) won the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday at 6/1 odds to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.

In 2013, we call that #winning with a hashtag.

But for most of Saturday’s first national-semifinals matchup, it appeared as if Wichita St. was going to advance to the finals. Behind the brilliant play of Cleanthony Early, who finished with 24 points and 10 rebounds, the Shockers led by 12 with 13:35 remaining.

Pitino’s vaunted defense wasn’t forcing any turnovers and U of L couldn’t produce buckets in order to set up its full-court press. It wasn’t looking good – at all.

Pitino was desperate and turned to walk-on Tim Henderson, who didn’t score a point in February and had only played more than eight minutes in a game once this season. Nevertheless, Henderson buried a pair of crucial 3-pointers to give the Cardinals some life.

Luke Hancock began to assert himself on both ends. Hancock would score 20 points to go with four rebounds, two assists and a pair of steals.

He saved his most important play for last and, fittingly, it wasn’t one that would show up in the box score. Leading by three with 8.8 ticks left, Louisville’s Russ Smith missed yet another free throw. (Smith, who finished with a team-high 21 points, made only 5-of-12 at the charity stripe.)

When Wichita St.’s Ron Baker elevated to grab the rebounds, he lost his balance somewhat. Hancock noticed as much and instantly tied up Baker just long enough to prompt the official to blow the whistle and look to the possession arrow.

It was pointing Pitino’s way, just like everything else this week.

The Cardinals won a 72-68 decision but failed to cover the number as 9.5-point favorites. After only 51 points were scored in the first half, ‘under’ backers were feeling good. However, 89 second-half points allowed the 140 combined points to jump ‘over’ the 133-point total.

In the nightcap game, Michigan (31-7 SU, 19-16-1 ATS) got sloppy down the stretch but was nonetheless able to capture a 61-56 win as a 1.5-point favorite. The 117 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 128.5-point tally.

John Beilein’s team raced out to a 36-25 lead at intermission thanks to the passing of freshman center Mitch McGary and shooting of reserves Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht. The Wolverines remained in control throughout the second half until crunch time when they started missing free throws and committing careless turnovers.

Syracuse’s James Southerland, who missed his first seven shots and was missing in action nearly the entire game, finally drained a trey to slice the deficit to 57-56 with 41 seconds remaining. Moments later, Michigan Trey Burke made one of two free throws for a two-point advantage.

At this point, Beilein was making offense-defense substitutions. Jordan Morgan, the junior center who had recently lost his starting slot and seen his minutes dwindle due to the emergence of McGary, was subbing in for defense.

With his team trailing by two, ‘Cuse senior guard Brandon Triche saw an opening and attacked the basket off the dribble. As Triche elevated to the rim, Morgan stepped in to take the charge.

It was very close, could’ve gone either way. Some pundits suggested that Morgan was still moving and had slid under Triche after he left the floor. Again, it was very close.

But the official whistled Triche for a charge. Morgan had taken another charge minutes before when the Orange were mounting its furious rally.

When Jon Horford made one of two at the stripe for a three-point lead, Syracuse had one last chance. However, Trevor Cooney took an ill-advised shot in traffic that was inside the arc. He missed and Tim Hardaway Jr. pulled down the rebound.

Morgan sprinted out while the ‘Cuse desperately tried to foul. The two-year starter, who has maintained a great attitude and hasn’t once complained about his diminished role, was hit in stride as he got behind the defense. Morgan, who only played five minutes, put an exclamation point on the victory with a slam with one second left.

You could make the argument that Morgan made the three most important plays of the game. And that, youngsters at home, is why you always remain a team player and keep a positive attitude even in the face of adversity.

Hardaway finished with 13 points, six rebounds and five assists, but he disappointed his prop-bet backers who had taken ‘over’ 13.5 points. McGary produced 10 points, 12 boards, six dimes and a pair of blocked shots.

Michigan will be an underdog Monday night for only the sixth time this season. Beilein’s bunch has compiled a 3-2 spread record in the five previous ‘dog spots.

The Wolverines will need a much better effort from their star point guard Trey Burke, who made only 1-of-8 shots versus the ‘Cuse and missed two free throws at winning time.

The ‘over’ is 21-15 overall for Michigan, 19-14 overall for Louisville. The ‘over’ has hit in nine consecutive games for the Cardinals.

Tip-off on CBS is scheduled for 9:23 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Final Four Betting Angles

April 7, 2013

NCAA FINAL FOUR OUT

It’s onward to Atlanta for the Final Four games. To put the wraps on the 2013 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to as our Fab Four heads off to the Hotlanta this weekend.

All results listed below are ATS (Against the Spread) and most recent since 1991 unless noted otherwise. Enjoy…

NCAA FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES

-- #1 Seed favorites 4 > pts are 6-1 ATS (Louisville)
-- #8 or lower Seeds are 1-4 ATS (Wichita State)
-- Favorites who won by 20 > pts are 0-4 ATS (Louisville)
-- Favorites 4 > pts who scored 80 > pts in Elite 8 round are 1-7 ATS (Louisville)
-- Teams who are 4-0 ATS last 4 games are 8-15 ATS (Michigan, Wichita State)
-- Teams with Revenge are 3-9 ATS (Michigan)
-- Big East teams are 0-3 ATS since 2004 (Louisville, Syracuse)

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME NOTES

-- #1 Seed favorites are 7-2 ATS
-- #4 Seeds are 2-0 ATS
-- #5 or worse Seeds are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS
-- Favorites of 5 < pts are 11-1 ATS
-- Favorites who scored 80 > pts in the Final 4 round are 5-1 ATS
-- Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 1-5 ATS
-- Dogs > 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final 4 round are 0-5 ATS
-- Dogs of 3 > pts off a SU dog win are 0-4 ATS
-- Big East teams are 4-0 ATS
-- Big 10 teams are 0-4 ATS

COACH ME UP

Louisville’s Rick Pitino is:
47-13 SU and 36-22-3 ATS in NCAA tournament
119-52 SU and 100-66-5 ATS vs Big East
16-11 SU and 11-16 ATS vs Big 10
4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS vs MVC
8-8 SU and 4-12 ATS vs Beilein
12-5 SU and 10-6-1 ATS vs Boeheim
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Marshall

Michigan’s John Beilein is:
12-6 SU and 14-3-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
47-53 SU and 50-48-2 ATS vs Big East
6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS vs MVC
0-9 SU and 3-6 ATS vs Boeheim
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Marshall
2-2 SU AND 1-2-1 ATS vs Pitino

Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim is:
34-18 SU and 27-21-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS vs Big 10
292-160 SU and 219-227-5 ATS vs Big East
4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS vs MVC
9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS vs Beilein
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Marshall
1-0 5-12 SU and 6-10-1 ATS vs Pitino

Wichita State’s Greg Marshall is:
4-1 SU and ATS in NCAA tournament
2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS vs Big East
3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS vs Big 10
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Belein
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Boeheim
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Pitino

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and out games played the last 24 years.

I hope you’ve enjoyed the tournament as much as I have. I’ll return during the NBA playoffs with an overview of some Good, Bad, and downright Ugly stats and trends. Until then, enjoy the rest of the ‘Dance’.

[StarDust Bum]

Two solid backcourts in title game

April 7, 2013

ATLANTA (AP) -Monday night's NCAA championship pairs up two teams aren't exactly mirror images of each other, but they sure aren't opposites either.

Louisville, which held up its mantle as the tournament's overall No. 1 seed, will take on Michigan, a No. 4 seed that knocked off the likes of Kansas, Florida and Syracuse on its way to the title game.

Both teams rely heavily on their backcourts and one guard in particular. Michigan's Trey Burke was The Associated Press' player of the year and though his scoring has been down in the tournament, he still directs the offense. Louisville's Russ Smith has been dominating the Cardinals' scoring and is the player who keeps the crowd on the edge of their seats with one ``Russdiculous'' move after another.

Both teams have impressive frontcourts and though it's a different style, both rely on their defense to get their offense going.

A look at the teams who will play for the national title, a prize neither school has brought home since the late 1980s.

---

BACKCOURT

Michigan comes at you with a young team that feeds off Burke, its leader. If there is a knock on the sophomore it's his inconsistency from game to game. In the five tournament games he has ranged from six points to 23 and those all came in the second half and overtime in the win over top-seeded Kansas. He has not shot better than 50 percent in any game and was 1 for 8 from the field against Syracuse. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Nik Stauskas have kept up the scoring when Burke doesn't and a big surprise was the solid minutes from freshman Caris LeVert in the semifinal.

Smith and Peyton Siva dominate the minutes for the Cardinals in the backcourt and they are the core of the pressure defense that wears down opponents. They do force turnovers throughout the game but it's the relentless pressure that changes the way teams play in the final minutes. Wichita State only committed 11 turnovers but the bulk of those came in the final minutes. Smith is averaging 25.0 points in the tournament and he has 15 steals in the five games. Siva has been struggling with his shot - 1 for 12 from 3-point range in the tournament - but he is still averaging 8.6 points and leads the team with 23 assists. Losing Kevin Ware to the broken leg against Duke has taken away a big part of the pressure defense.

EDGE: LOUISVILLE

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FRONTCOURT

Mitch McGary is working his way into Michigan lore with an incredible NCAA tournament. The freshmen forward didn't crack the starting lineup until the tourney and all he's done since then is average 16.0 points and 11.6 rebounds while shooting 69.8 percent from the field. Glenn Robinson III is averaging 12.8 points and 6.2 rebounds and has taken advantage of all the attention paid to McGary for some easy points, especially on offensive rebounds.

Louisville's big man in the middle, Gorgui Deing, has to bounce back from a scoreless semifinal and put up numbers like the 8.8 points and 7.2 rebounds he's averaged in the tournament. He has 12 blocks and seven steals and with his wingspan he's a big part of the pressure defense. Chane Behanan and Wayne Blackshear have been augmented up front by freshman Montrezl Harrell, who gave the Cardinals some good minutes against Wichita State.

EDGE: MICHIGAN

---

BENCH

Michigan's biggest contribution from its reserves in the tournament has been the outside shooting of Spike Albrecht who has yet to miss in five 3-point attempts. LeVert came through against Syracuse.

Louisville unloaded its bench against Wichita State and with Luke Hancock leading the way, the Cardinals' reserves scored 34 of the team's 72 points. Hancock, who had scored in double figures once in the tournament when he has 10 points against Duke, chipped in 20 points on 6-of-9 shooting while Harrell had eight points on 4-for-4 shooting. The surprise of all was Tim Henderson, who had scored six points since Christmas and matched that total on two huge 3-pointers against Wichita State.

EDGE: LOUISVILLE

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COACH

John Beilein, who is in his first Final Four, is considered among the top coaches in the country and his teams reflect his demeanor on the sideline, calm and in control.

Rick Pitino is trying to become the first coach to win a national championship at two schools, having won it all with Kentucky in 1996. His team's style is a lot like his on the sideline, in control on the outside but going at a frenetic pace on the inside.

EDGE: LOUISVILLE

---

INTANGIBLES

Michigan's last two championship game appearances were losses, the second of which ended with Chris Webber calling a timeout the Wolverines didn't have in a tight game against North Carolina.

Louisville has inspiration sitting on the bench in Ware. Just a week after the country saw his horrific injury in the regional final, he is on crutches and with his teammates in his home state. The picture of Ware and his father hugging after the semifinal win will be shown for years to come.

EDGE: LOUISVILLE.

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PICK

The difference should be Louisville's relentless pressure but, remember, Burke is due for a big game. Still, the Cardinals should be able to end the season on a 16-game winning streak.

[StarDust Bum]

One more test for sharp-minded Wolverines

April 7, 2013


ATLANTA (AP)

Syracuse's zone.

Michigan has handled every test so far. Now it's time for the final exam - a Louisville team that is the NCAA tournament's top overall seed.

Michigan is trying for its first national title since 1989, and Monday night will be its first appearance in the championship game since 1993, when the Fab Five lost to North Carolina. The last two decades have been difficult for the Wolverines, but after sanctions and mediocrity, they're back in the spotlight at college basketball's signature event.

Coach John Beilein's team is plenty talented, but point guard Trey Burke and the Wolverines have reached this moment because of their smarts - and their ability to adjust quickly to new challenges.

``It means a lot to Michigan,'' Burke said. ``This program hasn't been this far in two decades, so just to be back in this situation definitely means the world to alumni and it means the world to us. That's been our No. 1 goal since Day One.''

It was clear from the start that this could be a special team. Led by Burke, the Wolverines won their first 16 games and were eventually ranked No. 1 in the nation at the start of February. But as Beilein stressed over and over, it was still a young team. Burke, the consensus national player of the year, is a sophomore. Guard Tim Hardaway Jr. is a junior, but Michigan relies a lot on freshmen Glenn Robinson III, Mitch McGary and Nik Stauskas.

When the NCAA tournament began, the Wolverines still had a lot to prove - but this team's mental strength should not be underestimated.

On the first weekend of the tournament, Michigan faced VCU in the round of 32. After only a day to prepare for the Rams' chaotic full-court press, the Wolverines breezed to a 25-point win.

Two victories later, they were in the Final Four - and again, they were up against an intimidating defense. Syracuse's 2-3 zone confounded opponents in the earlier rounds, but Michigan made six first-half 3-pointers and held on to beat the Orange 61-56.

The Wolverines used their final timeout with 1:51 remaining in that game, bringing back memories of Michigan's last appearance in the Final Four, when Chris Webber called a timeout the Wolverines didn't have, resulting in a technical foul and a loss to North Carolina.

Michigan wasn't about to make that mistake again, and the Wolverines held their nerve against Syracuse's pressure.

``We just stuck together,'' Burke said. ``A lot of people would crack under pressure when you're in that type of situation.''

Michigan has looked poised, prepared and confident for the last month or so. Burke's presence at point guard is crucial, but the rest of Beilein's team makes smart decisions as well.

``He really recruits to his system maybe better than any coach. As Jim (Boeheim) recruits to his zone defensively, he recruits to his system,'' Louisville coach Rick Pitino said. ``He gets everybody that can pass, catch and shoot. Then if you get up on `em, they can ball fake and drive.''

Beilein certainly does take a player's basketball IQ into account while recruiting, but that's an inexact science.

``In AAU it's tough to see that sometimes. That's why we like to see practices, we like to know their coach a little bit,'' Beilein said. ``Have they been coached before? Thankfully most of our guys have really good high school coaches, and that helps us determine what they can handle from us.''

The Wolverines have been able to handle every challenge for the last few weeks, and their presence in the title game is a proud moment for a program that was reeling after a federal investigation revealed that a booster gave Webber and three non-Fab Five players more than $600,000 while they were student-athletes. Sanctions cast a cloud over the team for years, but Michigan's run this season has brought back fonder memories of the past.

On Monday night, the current Wolverines will try to add a national title to their own growing legacy.

``I am still in shock of what we accomplished,'' Robinson said. ``After watching the national championship for so many years and finally having this opportunity to play in it - especially my freshman year - I am really excited for this game. I can't wait.''

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

NBA statistical leaders, with 10 days left in the season......

-- Scoring: Durant OC 28.4, Anthony NY 28.3, Bryant LAL 27.0.

-- Assists: Rondo Bos 11.1, Paul LAC 9.6, Vasquez NO 9.3.

-- FG%: Jordan LAC .641, McGee Den, .575, DHoward LAL .573.

-- Steals: Rubio Minn 2.43, Paul LAC 2.42, Conley Mem 2.26.

-- FT%: Durant OC 90.7%, Curry GSt 89.9%, Collison Dal 89.8%.

-- 3-pt %: Calderon Det 46.1%, Korver Atl 45.5%, Curry GSt 45.3%.


*****

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend........

13) Rick gets Richer Dept: Not only did Louisville win Saturday, and not only did Rick Pitino get elected to the Naismith Hall of Fame this weekend, but a horse Pitino co-owns named Goldencents won the Santa Anita Derby and collected a cool $750,000, becoming eligible for the Kentucky Derby.

12) Excellent idea by the NCAA, having the D-II and D-III title games held on Sunday in the Final Four city. Kids at those levels work just as hard, maybe harder, and deserve to be in the spotlight more.

11) RA Dickey allowed five first-inning runs all last season; Red Sox had five runs Sunday, before Dickey got anyone out.

10) Is Rick Adelman the most underrated coach in the history of team sports? He is 1,000-703 as an NBA coach, coaching in Portland-Minnesota-Houston-Sacramento and Oakland, not exactly the Lakers/Celtics, but doubt most fans could pick him out of a lineup. Adelman played on the same team with the San Diego Rockets as another pretty good coach, Pat Riley.

9) Chances are Astros will deal ace starter Bud Norris later this summer; they're so awful right now, dealing Norris would further replenish their farm system- Norris can get them some significant young talent if they trade him, but if they let him throw 122 pitches many more times, way he did Saturday against Oakland, he'll get hurt before they can trade him.

8) Mets' Jon Niese has lasted 6+ innings in his last 22 starts, the longest such active streak in the major leagues.

7) Had my first-ever Papa John's pizza Saturday; they advertise so much on TV, but I hadn't had one until this weekend. Very good, way better than Domino's, better than the local independent pizza place, too. Thumbs up for the boneless chicken poppers they're selling.

6) Hard to believe, but in the ten years since the Raiders lost to the Bucs in the Jon Gruden Super Bowl, Oakland is 49-111. Now they have another new QB but at least they'll have the same coach this year. Hey, its a start.

5) NHL Winter Classic next January 1 in Ann Arbor- Toronto-Detroit, which figures to have the biggest crowd in NHL history.

A Michigan-Michigan State game in the Big House drew 104,173 back in '10; I'm guessing the NHL can figure out how to break that record.

4) Rough day for some star pitchers Sunday:
-- Matt Cain, 3.2 IP, nine runs allowed in a 14-3 loss.
-- Stephen Strasburg, six runs in 5.1 IP in a 6-3 loss.
-- RA Dickey, eight runs allowed in 4.2 IP in a 13-0 loss.
-- David Price, eight runs in five IP in another 13-0 loss.
-- Justin Verlander, three runs in 7.1 IP in a 7-0 loss.
-- Cole Hamels, eight runs in 5.2 IP in a 9-8 loss.
-- Jered Weaver, five runs in five IP in a 7-3 loss. Weaver also hyperextended his left elbow avoiding a line drive and left the game early.

3) Not sure where Rutgers will turn for a new basketball coach, but it apparently will not be to Rhode Island coach Danny Hurley, who said he is going to stay with the Rams. There are rumors that Ben Howland would listen if Rutgers called- no way they'll get a better coach than him.

2) If the NBA playoffs started today, matchups would look like this:

East: Miami-Milwaukee, New York-Boston, Indiana-Atlanta, and Brooklyn-Chicago.

West: San Antonio-Utah, Oklahoma City-Houston, Denver-Golden State and Clippers-Memphis.

1) Congrats to the Clippers, who won their first division title in franchise history Sunday, beating the Lakers for the 4th time in four tries this season. No one will remember they won the division, however, unless they advance far into the playoffs. People are funny that way.
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