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NCAAB
Dunkel
Michigan vs. Louisville
The Wolverines look to take advantage of a Louisville team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against Big Ten opponents. Michigan is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+4). Here are all of today's games.
MONDAY, APRIL 8
Game 601-602: Michigan vs. Louisville (9:23 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 76.987; Louisville 78.815
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 2; 142
Vegas Line: Louisville by 4; 138
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+4); Over
NCAAB
Long Sheet
Monday, April 8
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MICHIGAN (31 - 7) vs. LOUISVILLE (34 - 5) - 4/8/2013, 9:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOUISVILLE is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 59-38 ATS (+17.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 59-38 ATS (+17.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
MICHIGAN is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
MICHIGAN is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
MICHIGAN is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Monday, April 8
Favorites covered 10 of last 13 national title games; #1 seeds are 5-1 vs spread in last six finals when facing lower seed. Louisville was down 12 in second half Saturday; they're #2 in country at forcing turnovers, but Michigan is #1 in protecting ball- they hammered VCU, #1 team forcing turnovers. Wolverines were down 10 with 2:32 to go in regional semis, so both teams have stared down grim reaper. Cardinals won last 15 in a row since losing a five-OT game Feb 9; their last nine games went over total. Michigan is 3-2 as an underdog this season; they're 2-0 vs Big East teams, beating Pitt/Syracuse by 5 points each. Four Wolverine starters played 35+ minutes Saturday; only one sub played more than 5 minutes. Louisville played three subs 10+ minutes Saturday; they won despite a subpar game from Dieng (one shot, no points, 30 minutes). Last #1 seed to lose national title game to lower seed: '97 Kentucky, to Arizona.
NCAAB
Monday, April 8
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Trend Report
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9:23 PM
MICHIGAN vs. LOUISVILLE
No trends available
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisville's last 5 games
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NCAAB
Monday, April 8
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Michigan vs. Louisville: What bettors need to know
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Michigan Wolverines vs. Louisville Cardinals (-3.5, 138.5)
The loss of Kevin Ware did not seem to limit the Louisville bench in the Final Four. Luke Hancock and the reserves will try to step up again when the Cardinals take on Michigan in the National Championship Game on Monday. The Wolverines knocked off another Big East school, Syracuse, in the Final Four and have the athletes to get up and down with Louisville as well as a point guard in Trey Burke that can dribble through the press.
Michigan has been a better-rounded team in the NCAA Tournament due to the emergence of Mitch McGary, who did not even join the starting lineup full time until the beginning of the Tournament. The freshman forward will lock up with Gorgui Dieng and Chane Behanan along the frontline in Monday’s Championship Game. Dieng struggled with foul trouble in the Final Four win over Wichita State but Luke Hancock jumped into the extra minutes vacated by Ware and his foul-prone teammates and responded with 20 points.
TV: 9:23 p.m. ET, CBS
ABOUT MICHIGAN (31-7): McGary showed off his passing ability to help the Wolverines break through Syracuse’s press in the first half on Saturday finished with a season-high six assists to go along with 10 points and 12 rebounds. National Player of the Year Trey Burke struggled to 1-of-8 from the field against the Orange but will be the key to keeping up with Russ Smith and Peyton Siva on both ends while setting up Tim Hardaway Jr. and Glenn Robinson III. The Wolverines like to get out and run with Burke setting the pace and Hardaway and Robinson on the wings. Freshman guard Nik Stauskas had a tough semifinal but can stretch the defense with his shooting ability like he did while going 6-for-6 from beyond the arc against Florida in the Elite 8. Michigan is in the National Championship for the first time since the Fab Five made its second trip in 1993 and is the youngest team in the field of 68, with Robinson III, McGary and Stauskas all starting as freshman.
ABOUT LOUISVILLE (34-5): The Cardinals have won 15 straight games going back to the regular season and have shown off their ability to win in different styles during the NCAA Tournament. After running Duke off the floor in the second half of the Elite 8, Wichita State forced Louisville to slow the pace and would not turn the ball over, leaving the Cardinals to play more of a half-court game. That turned out to be the ideal way to Hancock more involved, and the junior swingman helped Louisville overcome a 12-point second-half deficit. Of course, Smith added 21 points as well and will be a key to keeping Hardaway Jr. and Glenn Robinson from slashing to the hole. Smith has scored at least 20 points in each of the five NCAA Tournament games and combines with Siva to form one of the fastest backcourts in college basketball and a tandem that jumps passing lanes and piles up steals defensively.
TRENDS:
* Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Cardinals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
* Over is 9-0 in Cardinals’ last nine overall.
* Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten foes.
TIP-INS
1. Louisville is making its first trip to the National Championship game since winning the title in 1986, and coach Rick Pitino will be trying to win championships with two different schools (Kentucky 1996).
2. McGary is averaging 16 points on 69.8 percent shooting and 11.6 rebounds in the Tournament.
3. The Cardinals bench collected 34 points on Saturday despite missing Ware.
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NCAAB
Monday, April 8
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NCAA National Championship Game biggest betting mismatches
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Finding a chink in the oddsmakers’ armor is tough come tournament time. We peel back Monday’s National Championship Game in search of some underlying mismatches that could make or break your college basketball bets.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Louisville Cardinals (-3.5, 138.5)
Wolverines’ deep threat vs. Cardinals’ poor perimeter game
Michigan is a threat to score the second it crosses halfcourt. The Wolverines knocked down 11 3-pointers in their close win over Syracuse, including a couple from just inside the “F” in the Final Four midcourt decal. Each time the Orange clawed their way into striking distance, Michigan was able to put distance between them from distance. On the year, the Wolverines shot 37.7 percent from beyond the arc which accounted for 30 percent of their 25th-ranked 75.2 points per game.
Louisville’s biggest weakness is its lack of reliable scoring from outside. The Cardinals shoot just 32.9 percent from 3-point range on the year and are slightly below that during the tournament (24 for 76 – 31.5 percent). The nine 3-pointers made in the win over Wichita State were the most Louisville has made since sinking 10 versus Villanova in the Big East tournament. In fact, looking back at the Final Four matchup with WSU, those 3-pointers – especially the trio of treys from Luke Hancock – are the reason UL is still dancing.
Louisville’s late fouls vs. Michigan’s misses from the stripe
The Cardinals carry a reputation as a hard-nosed defense but that gets amplified in the final minutes of games. Louisville isn’t giving away anything easy down the stretch and will happily hand out a hard foul and send its opponent to the charity stripe with the game in the balance. It comes with the territory when you press like UL. They took 23 personal fouls versus Wichita State and Duke and average just over 18 per game on the season.
The Wolverines’ foul line woes nearly cost them a shot at the national title. Michigan, which normally hits 70 percent of its free throws, let late-game nerves get the best of it against Syracuse. The Wolverines missed four of their six freebies in the final 48 seconds, allowing the Orange to climb to within one point. Even Player of the Year Trey Burke – an 80 percent shooter from the stripe - couldn’t escape the foul line freeze, going 4 for 6 and missing a key foul shot in the final seconds.
Dunkel
Michigan vs. Louisville
The Wolverines look to take advantage of a Louisville team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against Big Ten opponents. Michigan is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+4). Here are all of today's games.
MONDAY, APRIL 8
Game 601-602: Michigan vs. Louisville (9:23 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 76.987; Louisville 78.815
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 2; 142
Vegas Line: Louisville by 4; 138
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+4); Over
NCAAB
Long Sheet
Monday, April 8
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MICHIGAN (31 - 7) vs. LOUISVILLE (34 - 5) - 4/8/2013, 9:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOUISVILLE is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 59-38 ATS (+17.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 59-38 ATS (+17.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
MICHIGAN is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
MICHIGAN is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in non-conference games this season.
MICHIGAN is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
MICHIGAN is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Monday, April 8
Favorites covered 10 of last 13 national title games; #1 seeds are 5-1 vs spread in last six finals when facing lower seed. Louisville was down 12 in second half Saturday; they're #2 in country at forcing turnovers, but Michigan is #1 in protecting ball- they hammered VCU, #1 team forcing turnovers. Wolverines were down 10 with 2:32 to go in regional semis, so both teams have stared down grim reaper. Cardinals won last 15 in a row since losing a five-OT game Feb 9; their last nine games went over total. Michigan is 3-2 as an underdog this season; they're 2-0 vs Big East teams, beating Pitt/Syracuse by 5 points each. Four Wolverine starters played 35+ minutes Saturday; only one sub played more than 5 minutes. Louisville played three subs 10+ minutes Saturday; they won despite a subpar game from Dieng (one shot, no points, 30 minutes). Last #1 seed to lose national title game to lower seed: '97 Kentucky, to Arizona.
NCAAB
Monday, April 8
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Trend Report
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9:23 PM
MICHIGAN vs. LOUISVILLE
No trends available
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisville's last 5 games
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NCAAB
Monday, April 8
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Michigan vs. Louisville: What bettors need to know
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Michigan Wolverines vs. Louisville Cardinals (-3.5, 138.5)
The loss of Kevin Ware did not seem to limit the Louisville bench in the Final Four. Luke Hancock and the reserves will try to step up again when the Cardinals take on Michigan in the National Championship Game on Monday. The Wolverines knocked off another Big East school, Syracuse, in the Final Four and have the athletes to get up and down with Louisville as well as a point guard in Trey Burke that can dribble through the press.
Michigan has been a better-rounded team in the NCAA Tournament due to the emergence of Mitch McGary, who did not even join the starting lineup full time until the beginning of the Tournament. The freshman forward will lock up with Gorgui Dieng and Chane Behanan along the frontline in Monday’s Championship Game. Dieng struggled with foul trouble in the Final Four win over Wichita State but Luke Hancock jumped into the extra minutes vacated by Ware and his foul-prone teammates and responded with 20 points.
TV: 9:23 p.m. ET, CBS
ABOUT MICHIGAN (31-7): McGary showed off his passing ability to help the Wolverines break through Syracuse’s press in the first half on Saturday finished with a season-high six assists to go along with 10 points and 12 rebounds. National Player of the Year Trey Burke struggled to 1-of-8 from the field against the Orange but will be the key to keeping up with Russ Smith and Peyton Siva on both ends while setting up Tim Hardaway Jr. and Glenn Robinson III. The Wolverines like to get out and run with Burke setting the pace and Hardaway and Robinson on the wings. Freshman guard Nik Stauskas had a tough semifinal but can stretch the defense with his shooting ability like he did while going 6-for-6 from beyond the arc against Florida in the Elite 8. Michigan is in the National Championship for the first time since the Fab Five made its second trip in 1993 and is the youngest team in the field of 68, with Robinson III, McGary and Stauskas all starting as freshman.
ABOUT LOUISVILLE (34-5): The Cardinals have won 15 straight games going back to the regular season and have shown off their ability to win in different styles during the NCAA Tournament. After running Duke off the floor in the second half of the Elite 8, Wichita State forced Louisville to slow the pace and would not turn the ball over, leaving the Cardinals to play more of a half-court game. That turned out to be the ideal way to Hancock more involved, and the junior swingman helped Louisville overcome a 12-point second-half deficit. Of course, Smith added 21 points as well and will be a key to keeping Hardaway Jr. and Glenn Robinson from slashing to the hole. Smith has scored at least 20 points in each of the five NCAA Tournament games and combines with Siva to form one of the fastest backcourts in college basketball and a tandem that jumps passing lanes and piles up steals defensively.
TRENDS:
* Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Cardinals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
* Over is 9-0 in Cardinals’ last nine overall.
* Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten foes.
TIP-INS
1. Louisville is making its first trip to the National Championship game since winning the title in 1986, and coach Rick Pitino will be trying to win championships with two different schools (Kentucky 1996).
2. McGary is averaging 16 points on 69.8 percent shooting and 11.6 rebounds in the Tournament.
3. The Cardinals bench collected 34 points on Saturday despite missing Ware.
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NCAAB
Monday, April 8
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NCAA National Championship Game biggest betting mismatches
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Finding a chink in the oddsmakers’ armor is tough come tournament time. We peel back Monday’s National Championship Game in search of some underlying mismatches that could make or break your college basketball bets.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Louisville Cardinals (-3.5, 138.5)
Wolverines’ deep threat vs. Cardinals’ poor perimeter game
Michigan is a threat to score the second it crosses halfcourt. The Wolverines knocked down 11 3-pointers in their close win over Syracuse, including a couple from just inside the “F” in the Final Four midcourt decal. Each time the Orange clawed their way into striking distance, Michigan was able to put distance between them from distance. On the year, the Wolverines shot 37.7 percent from beyond the arc which accounted for 30 percent of their 25th-ranked 75.2 points per game.
Louisville’s biggest weakness is its lack of reliable scoring from outside. The Cardinals shoot just 32.9 percent from 3-point range on the year and are slightly below that during the tournament (24 for 76 – 31.5 percent). The nine 3-pointers made in the win over Wichita State were the most Louisville has made since sinking 10 versus Villanova in the Big East tournament. In fact, looking back at the Final Four matchup with WSU, those 3-pointers – especially the trio of treys from Luke Hancock – are the reason UL is still dancing.
Louisville’s late fouls vs. Michigan’s misses from the stripe
The Cardinals carry a reputation as a hard-nosed defense but that gets amplified in the final minutes of games. Louisville isn’t giving away anything easy down the stretch and will happily hand out a hard foul and send its opponent to the charity stripe with the game in the balance. It comes with the territory when you press like UL. They took 23 personal fouls versus Wichita State and Duke and average just over 18 per game on the season.
The Wolverines’ foul line woes nearly cost them a shot at the national title. Michigan, which normally hits 70 percent of its free throws, let late-game nerves get the best of it against Syracuse. The Wolverines missed four of their six freebies in the final 48 seconds, allowing the Orange to climb to within one point. Even Player of the Year Trey Burke – an 80 percent shooter from the stripe - couldn’t escape the foul line freeze, going 4 for 6 and missing a key foul shot in the final seconds.
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