The Bum's College Basketball Best Bets Thru March Madess !

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, March 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Albany - 12:15 PM ET Duke -18.5 500
Duke - Over 133.5 500

Mississippi - 12:40 PM ET Wisconsin -6 500 POD # 1
Wisconsin - Over 129 500

Temple - 1:40 PM ET N.C. State -4.5 500
N.C. State - Over 150 500

Pacific - 2:10 PM ET Pacific +13.5 500
Miami-Florida - Over 124.5 500

Cincinnati - 2:45 PM ET Creighton -3.5 500 POD # 4
Creighton - Over 128 500

La Salle - 3:10 PM ET Kansas St. -5.5 500 POD # 2
Kansas St. - Over 133 500

James Madison - 4:10 PM ET James Madison +21.5 500
Indiana - Over 136.5 500

Colorado - 4:40 PM ET Colorado +1 500
Illinois - Under 128 500

Florida Gulf Coast - 6:50 PM ET Georgetown -14 500 POD # 3
Georgetown - Under 123.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Friday, March 22

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Where the action is: Late NCAA tournament line moves
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Albany Great Danes vs. Duke Blue Devils – Open: -17.5, Move: -19

Bettors were a bit cautious with big spreads during Thursday’s games, especially with Gonzaga nearly getting knocked off outright. But, money is coming in on the No. 2 Blue Devils, pumping up their opening-game spread a few points before the 12:15 p.m. ET tipoff.

According to CarbonSports.ag, 92 percent of action on this game is siding with Duke.

Pacific Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes – Open: -13, Move: -12, Move: -14

Early action came in on the Tigers, trimming this spread a full point at some books before bettors jumped on the No. 2 Hurricanes and pushed the line to as high as -14 in Nevada. That flood of action is a mix of sharp and public money on Miami. About 90 percent of the bets in this one are on the Canes.

Colorado Buffaloes vs. Illinois Fighting Illini – Open: Pick, Move: -2, Move: Pick

Bettors were drawn to the Illini out of the gate, bumping this spread off the fence and as high as Illinois -2. However, sharp money is coming in on Colorado and taking this spread back the other way. There is a slight lean in action towards the Buffs, with 54 percent of the wagers on Colorado.

The Pac-12 started the tournament off on the right foot, with No. 12 Cal, No. 6 Arizona and No. 12 Oregon all winning straight up and ATS Thursday.

Villanova Wildcats vs. North Carolina Tar Heels – Open: 141, Move: 143.5

The total and spread are on the rise. Over bettors have lifted the number as high as 143.5 points at some markets and sharp action on the Tar Heels is pushing the spread to -4.5. North Carolina was playing its best basketball in the ACC tournament while Villanova had to bite its nails on Selection Sunday. According to CarbonSports.ag, 79 percent of action is on UNC.

Florida Gators vs. Northwestern State Demons – Open: 140, Move: 142

Florida has the third-ranked defense in the land but has had trouble scoring the basketball in recent weeks. They face Northwestern State, which finished the season as the top scoring team in the country – 81 points per game. That’s enough to convince over bettor to push this total up two points since Sunday. There is a slight edge to the over, with 64 percent of total bettors taking the over.

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Open: Pick, Move: -1.5, Move: Pick

This No. 7 vs. No. 10 matchup could be the most entertaining game of the Round of 64. Both teams can live and die beyond the 3-point line. Early money bought into Notre Dame, moving this spread off a pick’em. But late action on the Cyclones has returned this line to its original post and could end up flipping the favorite before the 9:45 p.m. ET tipoff. According to oddsmakers, 62 percent of bets are on ISU.

[StarDust Bum]

Evening Selections:


Iona - 7:15 PM ET Iona +14 500
Ohio St. - Over 144 500

Villanova - 7:20 PM ET Villanova +5 500 POD # 3
North Carolina - Over 143.5 500

Northwestern St. - 7:27 PM ET Florida -20.5 500 POD # 2
Florida - Under 143 500 POD # 6

Arizona St. - 8:00 PM ET Baylor -8 500 POD # 1
Baylor - Under 146 500

Oklahoma - 9:20 PM ET Oklahoma +3 500
San Diego St. - Over 133 500

Stony Brook - 9:30 PM ET Iowa -8.5 500
Iowa - Under 132 500

Iowa St. - 9:45 PM ET Iowa St. -1 500 POD # 5
Notre Dame - Under 139 500

Western Kentucky - 9:50 PM ET Kansas -20.5 500
Kansas - Under 131.5 500

Minnesota - 9:57 PM ET UCLA +3.5 500 POD # 4
UCLA - Over 136 500

[StarDust Bum]

Sweet 16 Spicy Bold Upset Watch

In terms of 6-seeds or worse who have a shot to be Sweet 16 sleeper teams, our top three picks would be:

#6 Arizona (over #3 New Mexico)
#6 Butler (over #3 Marquette)
#8 Pitt (over #1 Gonzaga)

Getting even riskier and limiting ourselves to the double-digit seeds, we’d go with:

#11 St Mary’s over #3 Michigan State
#12 Oregon over #4 St. Louis
#10 Colorado over #2 Miami
#12 Mississippi over #4 Kansas State
#11 Minnesota over #3 Florida

We’d expect just short of one of the above five double-digit teams to make the Sweet 16. If the 2013 NCAA tournament was played 11 times, it would happen in about 10 of those tournaments.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Early Action

March 22, 2013

Half the teams in the 64-team NCAA Tournament field have been bounced, as the matchups start to get a little bit better heading into Saturday. The two contests taking place at the Palace of Auburn Hills in suburban Detroit involve Michigan schools with both Michigan State and Michigan taking the court in separate contests. We'll take a look at the Wolverines first who tip things off against the champions of Conference USA.

South Regional

(4) Michigan vs. (5) VCU - 12:15 PM EST - CBS

Both the Wolverines and Rams are fresh off blowouts in second round action to kick off the tournament on Thursday. Michigan routed upstart South Dakota State from the Summit League, 71-56 to cash as 11 ½-point favorites. The Wolverines shot 50% from the field, as the duo of Glenn Robinson III and Tim Hardaway Jr. each put up 21 points in the victory. Star guard Trey Burke was limited to just six points on 2-for-12 shooting, but Michigan busted the game open after outscoring the Jackrabbits, 41-30 in the second half.

VCU isn't a surprise team in March Madness following its unlikely run to the Final Four in 2011. The Rams took care of MAC champion Akron in the second round, 88-42, as the Rams built a 50-25 cushion at the half to easily cash as 7 ½-point favorites. Everything seemed to go right for Shaka Smart's club, which shot a blistering 54% from the floor, while limiting Akron to just 35% shooting.

The Rams owned a 1-3 ATS record in the role of an underdog this season, as the three losses came to St. Louis (twice) and Duke. VCU put together a 6-13 ATS record down the stretch, but the Rams won eight times and didn't cover since the start of January. This is the third straight NCAA Tournament in which the Rams reached at least the round of 32, as VCU is 7-1 ATS as an underdog in the tourney under Smart.

Michigan has been a horrible team to back the last two months, as John Beilein's team owns a 3-10 ATS record the past 13 contests. All three covers came as favorites of at least 9 ½ points, as the Wolverines are 0-7 ATS the last seven times when laying seven points or less. Michigan is listed as a three-point favorite, as the total is set at 142 ½.

Midwest Regional

(3) Michigan State vs. (6) Memphis - 2:45 PM EST - CBS

The Spartans put together one of the better defensive efforts in the tournament opening victory over Valparaiso on Thursday, 65-54 as 9 ½-point favorites. Michigan State limited Valpo to 35% shooting, while allowing the Crusaders to score just 18 points in the first half. Tom Izzo's team will step up in class as the Spartans take on C-USA champ Memphis, who survived a late scare from St. Mary's.

The Tigers held off the Gaels, 54-52 to barely cash as 1 ½-point 'chalk,' as St. Mary's missed a potential game-winning three-pointer at the buzzer. Josh Pastner's club held a 10-point halftime lead and withstood St. Mary's rally in spite of the Gaels shooting just 33% from the floor. Memphis won its seventh straight game and advanced to the round of 32 even though it was held to a season-low in points.

Michigan State split its final eight games of the season, but three of those losses came by four points or less to Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio State. The Spartans are on a solid 6-1 run to the 'under' the last seven contests, while holding six straight opponents to 61 points or less. Since 2008, Michigan State is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the round of 32, including last season's four-point escape past St. Louis.

Memphis has lost just once since mid-December, falling at Xavier on February 26. The Tigers are 25-1 SU and 13-11 ATS in the last 26 games, while being listed as an underdog for the third time in this stretch (2-0 SU/ATS). Under Pastner, Memphis is just 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in three NCAA Tournament action, while looking for its first Sweet 16 appearance since 2009.

The Spartans are 5 ½-point favorites, while the total is listed at 130 ½.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Four-Pack

March 22, 2013

**Colorado State vs. Louisville**

--This is a 1/8 matchup in the Midwest Region at Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY. As of early Friday night, most betting shops had Louisville (30-5 SU, 21-14 ATS) installed as an 11-point favorite with the total in the 134-135 range. Gamblers can back the Rams to win outright for a +550 payout (risk $100 to win $550).

--Rick Pitino’s squad took the cash in Thursday’s 79-48 win over North Carolina A&T as a 26-point favorite. Junior guard Russ Smith led the way for the winners with 23 points and eight steals, as he buried 10-of-16 shots from the field.

--U of L owns a 14-7 spread record in 21 games as a double-digit favorite.

--Louisville has won 11 straight games and hasn’t tasted defeat since losing in five overtimes at Notre Dame on Feb. 9. The Cardinals are 9-2 ATS during this span, hooking up their backers in eight straight outings.

--Colorado St. (26-8 SU, 14-15-1 ATS) has been an underdog eight times this season, compiling a 4-4 spread record.

--Larry Eustachy’s squad advanced past ninth-seeded Missouri by virtue of Thursday’s 84-72 win over Missouri as a 2.5-point underdog. Dorian Green, who was slowed by a sprained ankle at last week’s Mountain West Conference Tournament, proved to be a fast healer. The senior guard exploded for a game-high 26 points to lead the Rams to a dominant victory.

--Even with Thursday’s cover against Mizzou, Colorado St. is still in midst of a 3-8-1 ATS slump in its last 12 games.

--The ‘over’ has hit in five consecutive Louisville games to move over .500 for the season (15-14 overall).

--The ‘over’ is on a 7-0-1 run in Colorado St.’s last eight games. The ‘over’ is 12-9-1 overall for the Rams.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 5:15 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**Harvard vs. Arizona**

--This is a 6/14 showdown in Salt Lake City. Most spots are listing Arizona (26-7 SU, 15-16 ATS) as a 10-point favorite with a 133-point tally. Bettors can back the Crimson on the money line for a +450 payout (risk $100 to win $450).

--Harvard (SU, ATS) won its first NCAA Tournament game in school history Thursday night, beating third-seeded New Mexico from start to finish in a 68-62 triumph. Tommy Amaker’s team won outright as a 10.5-point underdog, hooking up money-line supporters with a gorgeous +550 return. Wesley Saunders scored a team-high 19 points, while Laurent Rivard added 17 points by splashing the nets from 3-point land five times.

--Sean Miller’s squad cruised to an 81-64 win over Belmont as a 4.5-point ‘chalk.’ Mark Lyons scored a game-high 23 points for the Wildcats, who got 12 points apiece from Nick Johnson, Kevin Parrom and Kaleb Tarczewski. The 145 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 139-point total.

--Arizona has been a double-digit favorite 14 times this year, posting a 7-7 spread record.

--Harvard owns a stellar 8-2 spread record in 10 games as an underdog this year. The Crimson has produced a 5-0 spread record as a double-digit ‘dog.

--The ‘under’ is 17-10-1 overall for Arizona.

--Totals have been an overall wash (11-11) for Harvard, but the ‘under’ is 6-3 in its last nine contests.

--TNT will have the telecast from Energy Solutions Arena at 6:10 p.m. Eastern.

**Oregon vs. Saint Louis**

--Most spots are listing Saint Louis (28-6 SU, 22-10 ATS) as a four-point ‘chalk’ with the total in the 123-124 range. The Ducks are +160 on the money line.

--Saint Louis is in the midst of an incredible run with a 16-1 record both SU and ATS in its last 17 games, with the only loss coming in overtime at Xavier. The Billikens dominated an athletic New Mexico St. team in Thursday’s 64-44 win as 8.5-point favorites. Dwayne Evans was the catalyst with 24 points (11-16 FGs) and six rebounds. Cody Ellis drilled 3-of-4 from beyond the arc and finished with 12 points and six boards.

--Jim Crews’s team owns an amazing 14-1 spread record in 15 games as a single-digit favorite.

--Oregon (27-8 SU, 14-18-1 ATS) advanced to the round of 32 by stroking Oklahoma St. by a 68-55 count as a two-point underdog. Damyean Dotson scored a game-high 17 points for the Ducks. Arsalan Kazemi dominated the glass and finished with a double-double (11 points and 17 rebounds).

--Dana Altman’s club has been an underdog nine times, cashing tickets at a 5-4 ATS clip.

--The ‘under’ is 16-11 overall for Oregon.

--The ‘under’ has connected in five straight games to improve to 13-10-1 overall.

--TBS will provide television coverage at 7:10 p.m. Eastern.

**Butler vs. Marquette**

--Most books are listing Marquette (24-8 SU, 13-15 ATS) as a two-point favorite with a total of 127. Bettors can take the Bulldogs on the money line for a +120 return (risk $100 to win $120).

--Butler head coach Brad Stevens’s career NCAA Tournament record improved to 12-4 (75%) thanks to Thursday’s 68-56 win over Bucknell as a three-point favorite. Rotnei Clarke made his Big Dance debut and scored a team-high 16 points. Andrew Smith added 14 points and 16 rebounds, while Roosevelt Jones finished with 14 points, five boards and four assists. The 124 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 122-point total. This was a gut-wrenching setback for ‘under’ supporters that only went ‘over’ because the Bison began the foul-fest with about two minutes remaining.

--Marquette rallied from a nine-point deficit with about six minutes remaining and won a 59-58 decision over Davidson thanks to Vander Blue’s driving layup with 1.0 seconds left. The Golden Eagles were down four and hit a trey to slice the deficit to one with around seven ticks left. But after a forced turnover and a convenient replay review (to check the clock when Marquette had zero timeouts left), Blue’s heroics capped an amazing comeback.

--Buzz Williams’s squad owns a 6-8 spread record in 14 games as a single-digit favorite.

--Butler has compiled an 8-4 spread record in 12 games as an underdog.

--The ‘over’ is 16-13 overall for Butler. Meanwhile, Marquette has watched the ‘over’ go 15-12 overall.

--This is a rematch of a nail-biter at the Maui Classic in Hawaii on Nov. 19. Butler won by a 72-71 count as a four-point underdog on Clarke’s buzzer-beating triple. The Arkansas transfer finished with 20 points and six rebounds. Khyle Marshall had 24 points and nine boards as he made 11-of-15 attempts from the field. Jones and Smith chipped in with 12 and 10 points, respectively. In the losing effort, Blue scored a team-high 21 points.

--CBS will have the telecast 30 minutes after the conclusion of Louisville-CSU.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The ‘under’ finished the year 22-5 in Cincinnati games after the 130 combined points slithered ‘over’ the 128-point total in the Bearcats’ 67-63 loss to Creighton.

--Most books opened Duke as a 4.5-point favorite vs. the Bluejays in Sunday’s round-of-32 matchup in Philadelphia.

--Most books opened Ole Miss as a three-point favorite for Sunday’s game against LaSalle in Kansas City. Behind the bruising play of Murphy Holloway and Reginald Buckner in the lane, the Rebels took out Wisconsin 57-46 as six-point underdogs. Andy Kennedy’s squad hasn’t tasted defeat since that improbable loss at The Hump against arch-rival Mississippi St.

--LaSalle jumped out to an enormous lead over Kansas St. in Kansas City, leading by double digits nearly the entire first half. The Explorers withstood a furious rally by the Wildcats, who went in front late in the second half. However, LaSalle was able to capture a 63-61 win as a six-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a +220 payout.

--In an NIT game on ESPN at noon Eastern, Alabama is favored by four against Stanford with a total of 129 ½. The ‘under’ is 21-7 overall for the Crimson Tide.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Georgetown Hoyas' recent history in NCAA tournament.......

2006-- Beat Northern Iowa/Ohio State as #7 seed, lost 57-53 to Florida in Sweet 16 (+2.5). Gators were the #1 seed.

2008-- Beat UMBC in first round as 2-seed, lost 74-70 to Davidson (-4.5) and Steph Curry in second round. Wildcats were a 10-seed.

2010-- Lost 97-83 as 3-seed to 14-seed Ohio 97-83; they were last #3 seed to lose in first round before New Mexico lost Thursday.

2011-- Lost 74-56 (-5.5) as 6-seed to VCU, the 11-seed.

2012-- Beat Belmont by 15 in first round, then lost 66-60 (-4) to NC State in second round. Wolfpack was an 11-seed.

2013-- #2 seed, lost 78-68 (-13) to Florida Gulf Coast, the 15-seed.


*****

Armadillo: Notes from each of Friday's NCAA tournament games

-- Duke 73, Albany 61-- Great Danes made 9-15 from arc, won majority of loose balls, still lost by 12. Mike Krzyzewski actually did a TV interview at halftime-- can't remember the last time I saw him do that.

-- Creighton 67, Cincinnati 63-- Bluejays outscored Cincy 22-4 from foul line, made 7-15 from arc. Big East teams were 3-5 in first round of tourney. Creighton becomes a Big East team next year. Sometimes I watch Cincinnati play and I wonder if they use a basketball when they practice.

-- Ole Miss 57, Wisconsin 46-- Badgers shot 25.4% from field; Marshall Henderson went nuts in second half, then again on Twitter after. Henderson is wacky, but where would the Rebels be without him?

-- LaSalle 63, Kansas State 61-- Explorers led 44-26 at half, survived great comeback to win what was basically a road game in Kansas City. K-State was 9-17 from foul line, not good in a 2-point game.

-- Miami 78, Pacific 49-- Big divide in the 15-seeds; Iona has athletic guys who are nuisance if they play well; Albany was really a 16-seed but they had too many of those. Pacific overachieved to win conference tourney in a fading Big West. FGCU should've been seeded higher, a lot higher.

-- Illinois 57, Colorado 49-- Game of tremendous runs by both sides; Illini advanced on a day when they led by 16 at half, then trailed by 5 with 8:58 left. Former Illini coach Bruce Weber got upset in first round at K-State, so I'm guessing Illini fans happier with the coach they have now.

-- Temple 76, NC State 72-- Wolfpack lost despite making 64.1% of shots inside arc; they trailed by 16 at half, fought back, but a disappointing year ends in a fitting way. Wyatt was 7-8 inside arc, 12-14 on line, 1-7 outside arc as he scored 31 points to lead the Owls.

-- Indiana 83, James Madison 62-- Hoosiers crushed JMU, who loosened up in last 10:00, played better to cover spread- they scored half their 62 points in last quarter of the game. Glorified workout for the Hoosiers.

-- Florida Gulf Coast 78, Georgetown 68-- When players in this game were born, FGCU didn't exist yet. Hoyas get beat by a double digit seed for fifth year in row. Eagles only have two seniors in their rotation, too.

-- San Diego State 70, Oklahoma 55-- Steve Fisher is now 9-1 in his last ten games with Lon Kruger. Suddenly, Aztecs find a 15-seed in between them and a trip to the Sweet 16. MWC teams are 2-3 in tournament.

-- Ohio State 95, Iona 70-- Iona is fun to watch, but they got dismantled by a methodical Buckeye team that is as athletic as the Gaels. This kid Craft is a great college player, does all little, unglamorous things teams need to win.

-- Iowa State 76, Notre Dame 58-- Irish have slowish big men who look like they've never seen a pick-and-roll before, at least not run by great athletes. Cyclones were up 12 at half, pulled away from there. Second year in row Fred Hoiberg beat a Big East team in first round.

-- Florida 79, Northwestern State 47-- Deep Gators were bad draw for the Demons, who play 10 guys and try to wear you down. Game was 42-34 at the half, degenerated late. I'm still a believer in Florida going to Final Four.

-- Minnesota 83, UCLA 63-- There are rumors that Floyd Mayweather bet $7M on UCLA in this game; not sure if he knew Jordan Adams was out or not, but Mayweather could've played better himself than the Bruins did.

-- North Carolina 78, Villanova 71-- Tar Heels made 11-21 from arc as they handed the Big East yet another loss. Now UNC plays Kansas, where their smaller lineup is going to get a severe test. Over last four years, #1 seeds are 10-5-1 vs spread in this second round.

-- Kansas 64, Western Kentucky 57-- Jayhawks looked lifeless, so whatever ailed them in TCU loss is still inside them, somewhere. Next up is an old pal, Coach Roy Williams. If Kansas plays like they did Friday, Tar Heels will be glad to take their place in the Sweet 16.

Notes from each of Thursday's NCAA tournament games
-- Michigan State 65, Valparaiso 54-- Spartans grabbed 20 of their own 35 missed shots; their subs almost blew the 9.5-point spread in last minute. This game was nowhere near as close as the final score says.

-- Memphis 54, St Mary's 52-- Tigers blocked 12 shots, led by 15 late in the first half, then held on for dear life in last minute, as St Mary's got a shot to tie game. Congrats to Josh Pastner on his first NCAA tournament win; its a long way from sitting on a cafeteria table at Poinciana HS in Florida with me, watching an AAU game when he was an assistant coach at Arizona.

-- Louisville 79, North Carolina A&T 48-- Jesse Jackson was in stands at this game; kind of doubt he was rooting for Pitino. Hope he didn't take A&T and 26.5 points. If you added the first 10:00 of each half in this game, it was 43-13 Louisville.

-- Colorado State 84, Missouri 72-- You start five seniors, you're a live dog in this tournament. Dorian Green is a tough guy; he scored 26 points in 34:00 on a gimpy ankle. Only win in four games for MWC so far.

-- Syracuse 81, Montana 34-- This is all Weber State's fault; Wildcats were better than Montana this year, but couldn't finish the deal in Big Sky title tilt, so banged-up Griz got fed to an angry Syracuse squad here. This was ugly.

-- California 64, UNLV 61-- Dave Rice is going to have a rough summer in America's favorite city; Rebels have now lost last four first round games, and they were favored in all four (Rice only coached last two). He absolutely has to have at least one quality PG on his roster next year.

-- Marquette 59, Davidson 58-- Wildcats led 54-48 with 1:10 left; when the players and coaches on Davidson are in their 80's, they'll think of this game and be sad. Marquette hit last three 3's after being 1-12 from arc. Just one of those losses that will linger for weeks, months....

-- Butler 68, Bucknell 56-- Bison led 37-31 with 10:17 left, but then Butler put it in another gear, blew by them, outscoring Bucknell 25-5 on foul line.

-- VCU 88, Akron 42-- I'm not kidding; Saturday's game with Michigan might be most interesting matchup of the whole tournament. Not sure last night's walkover helped VCU very much, other than the win. This was ugly.

-- Michigan 71, South Dakota State 56-- Four Jackrabbits played the whole 40:00, and the fifth played 32. Predictably, they faded late.

-- Wichita State 73, Pitt 55-- Shockers were 33-41 from foul line and were the more physical team. Jamie Dixon is 11-9 in NCAAs at Pitt, despite being 3-seed or better in five of his nine NCAA appearances. Not really sure why USC would want to shell out big bucks for his services.

-- Gonzaga 64, Southern 58-- Survive. Advance. This game was 56-56 with 3:46 left. Southern was 10-23 outside arc, 8-23 inside it. Zags hit two huge 3's to pull ahead- they'll need to play better against Wichita State.

-- Arizona 81, Belmont 64-- Bruins are good example of how gap between the haves and have-nots has widened. Belmont wins its league most years, but only once have they come close to winning a NCAA tourney game, the gap in talent is just too wide.

-- Harvard 68, New Mexico 62-- Call me paranoid, but not thrilled about a coach signing a lucrative contract before a tournament; your lower-income kids start looking around, asking, "Where's mine?" and they play lousy and lose to an Ivy League team. Go figure.

-- Oregon 68, Oklahoma State 55-- Dana Altman was about the 7th choice to become Oregon's coach, but he's damn good. I'm thinking Ducks might be the best 12-seed in tournament history.

-- Saint Louis 64, New Mexico State 44-- Billikens are very good, plus they have players named Jordair Jett and Grandy Glaze-- tremendous names!!!!! SLU is very good defensively, took Aggies out of their game.
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[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

VCU vs. Michigan
The Wolverines look to take advantage of a VCU team that is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games versus teams with a winning record. Michigan is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wolverines favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

SATURDAY, MARCH 23

Game 515-516: Butler vs. Marquette (7:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 67.652; Marquette 66.537
Dunkel Line: Butler by 1; 129
Vegas Line: Marquette by 2; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Butler (+2); Over

Game 517-518: Colorado State vs. Louisville (5:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 64.212; Louisville 78.407
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 14; 132
Vegas Line: Louisville by 10 1/2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-10 1/2); Under

Game 519-520: Memphis vs. Michigan State (2:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 68.525; Michigan State 72.498
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 4; 138
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 6; 131
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+6); Over

Game 521-522: VCU vs. Michigan (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 67.852; Michigan 73.313
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 5 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Michigan by 3 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-3 1/2); Under

Game 523-524: Wichita State vs. Gonzaga (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 67.345; Gonzaga 71.285
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 4; 132
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 6 1/2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (+6 1/2); Over

Game 525-526: Harvard vs. Arizona (6:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 58.400; Arizona 65.486
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 7; 130
Vegas Line: Arizona by 10; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+10); Under

Game 527-528: Oregon vs. St. Louis (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 68.413; St. Louis 70.924
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 4; 124
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+4); Over

Game 529-530: California vs. Syracuse (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 62.529; Syracuse 72.131
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 9 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 7; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-7); Under

Game 531-532: Stanford at Alabama (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 67.438; Alabama 68.737
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 1 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Alabama by 4; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (+4); Over

Game 537-538: Rider at East Carolina (7:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 55.864; East Carolina 59.233
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 3 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 4 1/2; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+4 1/2); Under

Game 539-540: Eastern Kentucky at Evansville (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 59.388; Evansville 62.027
Dunkel Line: Evansville by 2 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: Evansville by 5; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (+5); Over

Game 541-542: Tulane at Bradley (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 55.865; Bradley 56.977
Dunkel Line: Bradley by 1; 141
Vegas Line: Bradley by 2 1/2; 145
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+2 1/2); Under

Game 543-544: Illinois-Chicago at Northern Iowa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 53.118; Northern Iowa 63.399
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 10 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 13; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (+13); Over

Game 545-546: Canisius at Youngstown State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 52.995; Youngstown State 56.322
Dunkel Line: Youngstown State by 3 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: Youngstown State by 2; 152
Dunkel Pick: Youngstown State (-2); Under

Game 547-548: Air Force at Weber State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 57.702; Weber State 66.715
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 9; 133
Vegas Line: Weber State by 8; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (-8); Under
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[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, March 23

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BUTLER (27 - 8) vs. MARQUETTE (24 - 8) - 3/23/2013, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARQUETTE is 50-29 ATS (+18.1 Units) in road games on Saturday games since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 187-145 ATS (+27.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
MARQUETTE is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 120 to 129.5 since 1997.
BUTLER is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games in March games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 112-84 ATS (+19.6 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
BUTLER is 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 140-108 ATS (+21.2 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
BUTLER is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
BUTLER is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BUTLER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
MARQUETTE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUTLER is 1-0 against the spread versus MARQUETTE over the last 3 seasons
BUTLER is 1-0 straight up against MARQUETTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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COLORADO ST (26 - 8) vs. LOUISVILLE (30 - 5) - 3/23/2013, 5:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO ST is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 43-27 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 43-27 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 49-33 ATS (+12.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in March games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
LOUISVILLE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOUISVILLE is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MEMPHIS (31 - 4) vs. MICHIGAN ST (26 - 8) - 3/23/2013, 2:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games on Saturday games this season.
MEMPHIS is 198-154 ATS (+28.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 132-84 ATS (+39.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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VA COMMONWEALTH (27 - 8) vs. MICHIGAN (27 - 7) - 3/23/2013, 12:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 55-38 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 55-38 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 46-30 ATS (+13.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WICHITA ST (27 - 8) vs. GONZAGA (32 - 2) - 3/23/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GONZAGA is 110-82 ATS (+19.8 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
WICHITA ST is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HARVARD (20 - 9) vs. ARIZONA (26 - 7) - 3/23/2013, 6:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in March games since 1997.
ARIZONA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
HARVARD is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
HARVARD is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OREGON (27 - 8) vs. SAINT LOUIS (28 - 6) - 3/23/2013, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAINT LOUIS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
SAINT LOUIS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
SAINT LOUIS is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
SAINT LOUIS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
SAINT LOUIS is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CALIFORNIA (21 - 11) vs. SYRACUSE (27 - 9) - 3/23/2013, 9:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
SYRACUSE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SYRACUSE is 49-26 ATS (+20.4 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
CALIFORNIA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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STANFORD (19 - 14) at ALABAMA (22 - 12) - 3/23/2013, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 57-37 ATS (+16.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
ALABAMA is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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RIDER (19 - 14) at E CAROLINA (19 - 12) - 3/23/2013, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RIDER is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
RIDER is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
RIDER is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
RIDER is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
RIDER is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
RIDER is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
RIDER is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
RIDER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
RIDER is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
E CAROLINA is 160-201 ATS (-61.1 Units) in all games since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 160-201 ATS (-61.1 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 41-62 ATS (-27.2 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 65-93 ATS (-37.3 Units) in all home games since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 65-93 ATS (-37.3 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 62-99 ATS (-46.9 Units) on Saturday games since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
E CAROLINA is 48-80 ATS (-40.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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E KENTUCKY (25 - 9) at EVANSVILLE (19 - 14) - 3/23/2013, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EVANSVILLE is 36-23 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
EVANSVILLE is 36-23 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
EVANSVILLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
EVANSVILLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
E KENTUCKY is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in road games this season.
E KENTUCKY is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in road lined games this season.
E KENTUCKY is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games on Saturday games since 1997.
E KENTUCKY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TULANE (20 - 14) at BRADLEY (17 - 16) - 3/23/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
TULANE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick over the last 2 seasons.
TULANE is 63-96 ATS (-42.6 Units) on Saturday games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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IL-CHICAGO (18 - 15) at N IOWA (19 - 14) - 3/23/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IL-CHICAGO is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in March games since 1997.
IL-CHICAGO is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
IL-CHICAGO is 100-64 ATS (+29.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
IL-CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
IL-CHICAGO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CANISIUS (19 - 13) at YOUNGSTOWN ST (18 - 15) - 3/23/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
YOUNGSTOWN ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
YOUNGSTOWN ST is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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AIR FORCE (18 - 13) at WEBER ST (27 - 6) - 3/23/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WEBER ST is 82-58 ATS (+18.2 Units) in all home games since 1997.
WEBER ST is 82-58 ATS (+18.2 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
WEBER ST is 83-55 ATS (+22.5 Units) on Saturday games since 1997.
WEBER ST is 87-61 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
WEBER ST is 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
AIR FORCE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) on Saturday games this season.
AIR FORCE is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1997.
AIR FORCE is 67-42 ATS (+20.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
AIR FORCE is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
AIR FORCE is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Saturday, March 23

NCAA Tournament Betting Trends

NCAA Tournament, Third Round
Butler vs. Marquette, 7:45 ET CBS
Butler: 18-3 ATS playing on a neutral court
Marquette: 2-8 ATS after allowing 60 points or less

NCAA Tournament, Third Round
Colorado State vs. Louisville, 5:15 ET CBS
Colorado State: 15-5 Under away after forcing 8 or less turnovers
Louisville: 6-0 ATS away off 6+ SU wins

NCAA Tournament, Third Round
Memphis vs. Michigan State, 2:45 ET CBS
Memphis: 13-25 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Michigan State: 13-5 ATS away off an ATS win

NCAA Tournament, Third Round
Virginia Commonwealth vs. Michigan, 12:15 ET CBS
VA Commonwealth: 1-7 ATS away off a win by 10+ points
Michigan: 23-11 ATS off a non-conference game

NCAA Tournament, Third Round
Wichita State vs. Gonzaga, 8:40 ET TNT
Wichita State: 3-10 ATS off 3+ games committing 14 or less turnovers
Gonzaga: 10-2 ATS off an ATS loss

NCAA Tournament, Third Round
Harvard vs. Arizona, 6:10 ET TNT
Harvard: 3-11 ATS off an Over
Arizona: 14-5 ATS away off a non-conference game

NCAA Tournament, Third Round
Oregon vs. St. Louis, 7:10 ET TBS
Oregon: 0-7 ATS after playing as an underdog
St. Louis: 14-2 ATS after winning 12+ of their last 15 games

NCAA Tournament, Third Round
California vs. Syracuse, 9:40 ET TBS
California: 12-4 ATS playing with 1 or 0 days rest
Syracuse: 0-9 ATS away off a combined score of 115 or less points

NIT Tournament Betting Trends

NIT Tournament, Second Round
Stanford at Alabama, 12:00 ET ESPN
Stanford: 13-3 ATS off a home win by 3 points or less
Alabama: 3-12 ATS at home after playing as a favorite

CIT Tournament Betting Trends

CIT Tournament, Second Round
Rider at East Carolina, 5:00 ET
Rider: 8-1 ATS off a road win
East Carolina: 1-8 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents

CIT Tournament, Second Round
Eastern Kentucky at Evansville, 1:30 ET
Eastern Kentucky: 10-3 ATS in road games
Evansville: 12-4 Over after winning 2 of their last 3 games

CIT Tournament, Second Round
Tulane at Bradley, 8:00 ET
Tulane: 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Bradley: 17-6 Over at home playing their second game in eight days

CIT Tournament, Second Round
Illinois Chicago at Northern Iowa, 8:00 ET
Illinois Chicago: 6-0 ATS in tournament games
Northern Iowa: 2-10 ATS after having 5 or less offensive rebounds

CIT Tournament, Second Round
Canisius at Youngstown State, 7:00 ET
Canisius: 6-0 Over away vs. non-conference opponents
Youngstown State: 3-11 ATS off a win by 10+ points

CIT Tournament, Second Round
Air Force at Weber State, 9:00 ET
Air Force: 15-5 Over off a SU win
Weber State: 11-3 ATS after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 23

VCU forces turnovers on 28.8% of possessions, #1 in country, but best team they've beaten is #34 Memphis- they're 0-5 vs top 30 teams, with losses by 3 to Missouri, 2 to Wichita. Rams won 10 of last 13 games, with only losses to Saint Louis/Temple, teams with outstanding guards. Michigan is #338 team in experience, but they have outstanding guards, turning ball over only 14.4% of time, least in country. Wolverines (two juniors, no seniors in rotation) are 7-6 in last 13 games, after 20-1 start to season; six of its seven losses came vs top 10 teams. Wolverines won Thursday when South Dakota State played four starters 40 minutes and wore down late. VCU is going to try and wear Michigan down here.

Since 1998, Michigan State is 10-1 in second round games, with loss in '07 to #1 seed UNC. Spartans won four of their last five games, drubbing Valparaiso team in first round that is most experienced team in country; State rebounded 20 of its 35 missed shots in that game- they played the toughest schedule in country. Memphis blocked 12 shots in getting Josh Pastner his first tourney win, holding off St Mary's 54-52; Tigers are 1-3 vs top 25 teams, losing by 13-9-9, with loss to Minnesota of Big Dozen in there. Before beating #21 St Mary's, best team Memphis had beaten was #59 Southern Miss. Over the last seven years, #3 seeds are 9-5 vs spread when facing a 6-seed in second round. Playing in Auburn Hills can’t hurt Spartans.

In its last two games, Louisville had 44-10 run vs Syracuse, then waxed NCA&T by 31, forcing 27 turnovers; since '93, Cardinals are 7-1 in 2nd round games, winning last four by 22-30-7-3 points. Since '05, favorites of 10+ points in second round are 11-6 vs spread. Colorado State starts five seniors, is top rebounding team in country (#2 on offensive, #1 on defensive boards), but they're #308 team in bench minutes, so Cardinal club that forces turnovers 27.6% of time (#2 in US) will attempt to wear them down. Over last four years, #1 seeds are 10-5-1 vs spread in this round. Louisville fans will turn Rupp Arena into a Cardinal home arena, at least for two hours.

Harvard is first #14 seed to win since Ohio U three years ago; over last 28 years, #14 seeds are 5-9 vs spread in second round, losing last five such games by 15-9-8-13-15 points (0-5 vs spread). Crimson is #2 in the country at getting to foul line; they're 1-2 vs top 50 teams, losing by 10 at Memphis, 1 at St Mary's, before upsetting New Mexico Thursday in first round. Arizona is 11-2 in second round games, losing as 8-seed in '06, 1-seed in '00; they outrebounded Belmont 44-18 Thursday; Bruins are similar team to Harvard. Wildcats are 6-5 in last 11 games after 20-2 start; they are 15-1 vs teams ranked outside top 80 (Harvard is #93). Since '05, second round double digit favorites are 11-6 against spread.

Saint Louis had rough 3-3 start, but is on 16-1 run now- they've got four juniors, three seniors in rotation, are in top 20 in nation at getting to foul line. Billikens held New Mexico State to 28% from floor Thursday; they force turnovers 23.5% of time, hold teams to 32.1% behind arc. Oregon was 17-2 when PG Artis hurt his foot; they went 5-4 while he was out, are 5-2 since he came back, but he played only 17 minutes vs Oklahoma State, as he/Loyd are splitting position. Ducks turn ball over 21.7% of time. Billikens are #30 team in country in experience. Since 2007, second round favorites of less than 5 points are 23-18 vs spread. Since '03, #12 seeds are 8-4 vs spread when facing a #4 seed.

Butler (+4) beat Marquette 72-71 on Maui Nov 19, game they trailed by 5 with 2:01 left; Clarke hit runner at buzzer for win. Bulldogs are 10-6 in last 16 games after a 16-2 start; both teams shot 57% inside arc in that Maui game, Butler was +7 in turnovers (7-14). Butler is 7-1 in last eight games as tournament underdog. Marquette was down 54-48 with 1:10 to play Thursday, pulled out unlikely win over Davidson, going 3-3 from arc in last 1:10, after being 1-12 before that. Butler outscored Bucknell 25-5 on foul line in first round, but trailed 37-31 with 10:17 left, before finishing game on 37-19 run. Over the last seven years, #3 seeds are 9-5 vs spread when facing a 6-seed in second round.

Since 2006, Gonzaga is 2-6 in second round games, losing in this round last three years by 22-22-7 points (as 8-11-7 seed, though); Zags looked tight in first round, outscoring Southern 8-2 in last 3:00 for 64-58 win, a very difficult game, Zags' 13th win in row- they played four starters 32+ minutes. Wichita was 33-41 on foul line 73-55 win over Pitt, a brickfest where both teams shot under 36% inside arc, but surprisingly easy win for Shockers. Over last four tourneys, #1 seeds are 10-5-1 vs spread in this round. Since '08, second round favorites of 5+ points are 27-15-2 vs spread. Gonzaga is 6-2 vs top 40 teams, losing to Illinois/Butler, beating St Mary's three times for half of those six wins.

Mike Montgomery is great coach, having coached Warriors in NBA, but does Cal have players who can finish inside vs Syracuse 2-3 zone? Bears hardly sub; they get 62% of points on 2-pointers (#5 in country), which suggests they do, but Syracuse blocks 19.1% of opponents' shots, #1 in country, and hold teams to 29.1% on arc. Orange is 5-5 in last ten games; they're 20-2 vs teams ranked outside top 50, losing to UConn/Temple. Cal won eight of last ten games, will have crowd on its side since they're 45 miles from home here. Syracuse rebounded from its collapse in Big East final by crushing banged-up Montana in first round; Since '03, #12 seeds are 8-4 against the spread when facing a #4 seed.

Other tournaments
-- One of Stanford's players is from Alabama; Cardinal is excited to be playing there, in front of his family- they lost to Missouri by 8, in only game vs an SEC team. Bama won three of last four games; they beat Pac-12's Oregon State by 3, in only game vs that league.
-- Rider won six of last seven games, losing in MAAC tourney by point to Fairfield; Broncs lost by 13 at SMU, its only game vs a C-USA foe. East Carolina won five of last seven games, beating Savannah State by a point in opener of this tournament.

-- Eastern Kentucky forces turnovers 25.8% of time, #8 in country, are #2 foul shooting team- teams shoot 53.2% inside arc against them (6th-worst in US). Evansville won two of three vs OVC teams this season, with all three games decided by exactly 12 points.
-- Bradley is 4-8 in its last 12 games, beating Green Bay by 6 in opener of this tournament; Braves played #332 non-league schedule despite it being #32 in experience, which is why they're 17-16. Tulane lost five of its last seven games, and six of its last eight on foreign soil.
-- Ill-Chicago is 4-7 in its last 11 games after beating local rival Chicago State by 11 in tourney opener. Northern Iowa won eight of its last 11 games, beat Milwaukee by 11 in only game vs Horizon foe. Panthers are 8-1 in their last nine home games, with only loss to Denver.

-- Youngstown beat defenseless Oakland 99-87 last game, after scoring 64 or less points in four games before that; Penguins don't sub a whole lot (#331 in bench minutes). Canisius is 9-6 in its last 15 games; they're in top 20 in 3-point percentage, making 38.7%).
-- Air Force won at Hawai'i without top scorer Lyons (knee, out); they beat Montana State by 14, in only game vs Big Sky foe. Weber State had easy time in crushing Cal Poly 85-43, its 14th win in last 15 games, but watching Montana go in tank vs Syracuse couldn't have felt too good.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 23

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Trend Report
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12:00 PM
STANFORD vs. ALABAMA
Stanford is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Stanford's last 6 games on the road
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Alabama is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games

12:15 PM
VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH vs. MICHIGAN
No trends available
Michigan is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
Michigan is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games

1:30 PM
EASTERN KENTUCKY vs. EVANSVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Eastern Kentucky's last 6 games on the road
Evansville is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
Evansville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

2:45 PM
MEMPHIS vs. MICHIGAN STATE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Michigan State's last 7 games
Michigan State is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games

5:00 PM
RIDER vs. EAST CAROLINA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Rider's last 5 games on the road
Rider is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
East Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of East Carolina's last 9 games at home

5:15 PM
COLORADO STATE vs. LOUISVILLE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisville's last 5 games
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

6:10 PM
HARVARD vs. ARIZONA
No trends available
Arizona is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

7:00 PM
CANISIUS vs. YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Canisius is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Canisius's last 7 games on the road
Youngstown State is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Youngstown State's last 6 games at home

7:10 PM
OREGON vs. SAINT LOUIS
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saint Louis's last 5 games
Saint Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

7:45 PM
BUTLER vs. MARQUETTE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Marquette's last 6 games
Marquette is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

8:00 PM
ILLINOIS-CHICAGO vs. NORTHERN IOWA
Illinois-Chicago is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Illinois-Chicago is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northern Iowa's last 5 games at home
Northern Iowa is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

8:00 PM
TULANE vs. BRADLEY
Tulane is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tulane's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Bradley's last 7 games
Bradley is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games

8:40 PM
WICHITA STATE vs. GONZAGA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Gonzaga's last 10 games
Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

9:00 PM
AIR FORCE vs. WEBER STATE
Air Force is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Air Force's last 5 games on the road
Weber State is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
Weber State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

9:40 PM
CALIFORNIA vs. SYRACUSE
No trends available
Syracuse is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Sunday, March 24

11:00 AM
ST. JOHN'S vs. VIRGINIA
St. John's is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. John's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia's last 5 games
Virginia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

12:00 PM
NORTHERN IOWA vs. UC IRVINE
Northern Iowa is 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Northern Iowa is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of UC Irvine's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of UC Irvine's last 10 games

12:00 PM
LOYOLA vs. ILLINOIS-CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Loyola's last 5 games on the road
Illinois-Chicago is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Illinois-Chicago's last 6 games at home

12:00 PM
YOUNGSTOWN STATE vs. TULANE
Youngstown State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Youngstown State is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Tulane is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tulane's last 6 games at home

12:00 PM
RIDER vs. BRADLEY
Rider4-1-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Bradley is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,at home
Bradley13-5-1 SU in its last 19 games at home

12:00 PM
EASTERN KENTUCKY vs. KENT STATE
Eastern Kentucky is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,on the road
Kent State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Kent State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

12:00 PM
WEBER STATE vs. AIR FORCE
Weber State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Air Force's last 5 games at home
Air Force is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

12:00 PM
EAST CAROLINA vs. CANISIUS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of East Carolina's last 7 games on the road
East Carolina is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Canisius's last 10 games at home
Canisius is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home

12:00 PM
EVANSVILLE vs. ORAL ROBERTS
Evansville is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games on the road
No trends available

12:15 PM
IOWA STATE vs. OHIO STATE
No trends available
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Ohio State's last 9 games

2:45 PM
TEMPLE vs. INDIANA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games
Indiana is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Temple

3:00 PM
KENT STATE vs. LOYOLA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kent State's last 5 games on the road
Loyola is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Loyola is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games at home

5:15 PM
NORTH CAROLINA vs. KANSAS
No trends available
Kansas is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games

6:10 PM
MINNESOTA vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
Florida is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Florida is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games

7:10 PM
FLORIDA GULF COAST vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego State's last 6 games
San Diego State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

7:40 PM
LA SALLE vs. MISSISSIPPI
No trends available
Mississippi is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Mississippi's last 5 games

8:40 PM
ILLINOIS vs. MIAMI
No trends available
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games

9:40 PM
CREIGHTON vs. DUKE
No trends available
Duke is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Duke's last 7 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 23

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NCAA betting mismatches: Saturday's Round of 32
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Finding a chink in the oddsmakers’ armor is tough come tournament time. But we peel back some of Saturday’s Round of 32 matchups, looking for some underlying mismatches that could make or break you college basketball bets this March.

VCU Rams vs. Michigan Wolverines (-3.5, 146)

Rams’ turnover-fueled offense vs. Wolverines’ careful ball-handling

Much of VCU’s success comes from its pressure defense, which led the nation in steals and turnovers forced this season. The Rams offense depends on opponents to make mistakes, transforming those turnovers into easy buckets. VCU forced Akron to cough the ball up 21 times in Thursday’s 88-42 blowout win as a 7.5-point favorite.

The only catch with Saturday’s game against Michigan is that the Wolverines don’t make many mistakes. They were the best team in the nation in terms of limiting turnovers, averaging only 9.2 per game, and handed the ball over just nine times in their 71-56 win over South Dakota State Thursday. VCU could struggle to score without getting hand-me-outs.

Arizona Wildcats vs. Harvard Crimson (+10, 132.5)

Wildcats’ NCAA savvy vs. Crimson’s lack of tourney experience

Despite how shaky Arizona has been in the regular season, the Wildcats keep showing up deep into the tournament. They were supposed to be on upset watch in the Round of 64, but smashed would-be Cinderella Belmont. Head coach Sean Miller is looking to make his second Sweet 16 in the last three years and Xavier transfer Mark Lyons and senior Solomon Hill have both made it out of the first weekend during their careers.

Harvard made school history with its first NCAA victory, shocking No. 3 New Mexico in the Round of 64. The Crimson played a near perfect game, shooting better than 52 percent from the field versus the Lobos. Harvard little time to enjoy the win and now faces a team that tends to rise to the occasion. Arizona comes to play in the big games, with wins over Florida and Miami this year – something the Crimson know very little about.

California Golden Bears vs. Syracuse Orange (-7.5, 124.5)

Golden Bears’ Golden State advantage vs. Orange’s time-zone trouble

Cal basically has home-court advantage this weekend in the East Regional, just 50 miles from their Berkley campus. Some players even left San Jose and went back for classes this week. There was a huge Blue and Gold presence in the crowd for Thursday’s upset over UNLV and you can expect even more Cal fans this weekend.

The Orange are on the other side of the country in San Jose – just under 3,000 miles from campus. Syracuse was stuck with the late game Thursday, drubbing Montana with a tipoff of nearly 10 p.m. ET., and will tipoff at 9:40 p.m. ET Saturday. Outside of this year’s tournament, the Orange have been this far west only once in the past 10 seasons – their schedule-opening win over San Diego State in San Diego back in November.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 23

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Midwest Regional: Day 3 NCAAB betting preview
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(8) Colorado State Rams vs. (1) Louisville Cardinals (-10.5, 134.5)

Top-seeded Louisville backed up its claim as the hottest team in the NCAA Tournament with a dominant showing in its opening game, but No. 8 seed Colorado State also is coming off an overpowering performance as the teams get set to clash in the Midwest Regional quarterfinals Saturday in Lexington, Ky. The Cardinals rolled past North Carolina A&T 79-48 on Thursday for their 11th consecutive win, notching their 30th victory in the process, and had the luxury of resting their starters for much of the second half. The Rams had to exert a bit more effort to hold off Missouri 84-72, the program's first victory in the NCAA Tournament since 1989.

Perhaps the most impressive part of Colorado State's opening performance is the fact it came with leading scorer Colton Iverson in foul trouble. The Minnesota transfer grabbed 13 rebounds, but was limited to four points. He will need to be more of a factor at the offensive end against the Cardinals. Louisville has been outstanding since a three-game losing streak in January, winning 14 of its last 15 with the setback a five-overtime loss at Notre Dame on Feb. 9. The winner will face No. 4 seed Saint Louis or No. 12 Oregon on Friday in the Sweet 16 in Indianapolis.

TV: 5:15 p.m. ET, CBS

ABOUT COLORADO STATE (26-8): The Rams probably shouldn't expect things to go as smoothly at the offensive end as they did against Missouri - Colorado State shot 49 percent while rolling up the program's highest scoring total in an NCAA Tournament game, but said they are well-equipped to handle Louisville's pressing defense. "We're going to prepare for that," guard Jon Octeus said. "We've done a good job of pressuring each other. I think we'll be able to handle all the pressure they bring." The biggest advantage the Rams have against the Cardinals is their prowess on the boards. Colorado State ranks fourth in the nation in rebounding (40.5) and leads the nation in opponents' rebounds (28.1), creating the No. 1 rebounding margin in the country.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (30-5): The Cardinals have turned up the defensive intensity during their winning streak, and coach Rick Pitino has harped on the number of deflections his team has produced. Pitino said the 58 deflections against Villanova in the Big East tournament marked a record for one of his teams, but the Cardinals shattered that with 67 on Thursday. "We all know what defense can do," guard Russ Smith said. "It got us to the Final Four last year. So we just stay solid and just keep playing our defense." Smith also led an impressive offensive performance against the Aggies, scoring 23 points as the Cardinals shot a season-best 57.4 percent.

TRENDS:

* Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four Saturday games.
* Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Over is 7-0-1 in Rams’ last eight overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Cardinals’ last five overall.

TIP-INS

1. Louisville is 42-8 all-time as the higher seed in NCAA Tournament games, but 5-11 as a No. 1 seed.

2. Colorado State is 20-2 when scoring 70 or more points and has the same record when leading at halftime.

3. The Cardinals are 26-0 this season when leading at halftime.

(12) Oregon Ducks vs. (4) Saint Louis Billikens (-3.5, 123.5)

Saint Louis will try to extend its best season in school history when the fourth-seeded Billikens play No. 12-seed Oregon in the third round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday in San Jose, Calif. Saint Louis won a program-record 28th game Thursday, smothering New Mexico State 64-44. Many felt the Ducks were under-seeded after they won the Pac-12 tournament title, and they went out and proved it with a 68-55 second-round victory over Oklahoma State.

Saint Louis junior forward Dwayne Evans scored 24 points in the opener, the most in an NCAA Tournament game in program history. He leads the Billikens in scoring overall (14), surpassing his average in each of the last nine games. The Ducks feature a mix of talented freshmen, led by starting guards Damyean Dotson and Dominic Artis, and hungry seniors. Arsalan Kazemi, who grabbed 17 rebounds against Oklahoma State, leads the senior group and figures to be a tough matchup for the Billikens, who are 251st in the nation in rebounding.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, TBS.

ABOUT OREGON (27-8): The Ducks went 5-4 while Artis was sidelined with a foot injury during Pac-12 play. While that was a big loss for Oregon and likely cost the Ducks a regular-season conference title, it also gave junior point guard Johnathan Loyd a chance to shine. He initially struggled in the starting role, including three games in which he failed to make a field goal or register a point, but has become more comfortable of late, even with Artis back in the starting lineup. He scored a season-high 19 points in the Pac-12 tournament final against UCLA and played more minutes (25) against Oklahoma State than Artis (17).

ABOUT SAINT LOUIS (28-6): The Billkens made a trip to the Northwest back in November and lost 66-61 to Washington, a team Oregon beat twice during conference play. Two days later, coach Rick Majerus, who had been on leave since the summer because of heart problems, died. Saint Louis went on to win its next nine games and followed that with an 11-game winning streak. The Billikens knocked off a previously ranked Butler team three times this season and also swept both games against another ranked Atlantic-10 foe, Virginia Commonwealth. Saint Louis has been getting it done with defense - it is 15th in the nation in opponent scoring (57.7).

TRENDS:

* Billikens are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Saturday games.
* Under is 5-0 in Billikens’ last five overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Ducks’ last five Saturday games.
* Billikens are 4-0 ATS in their last four NCAA tourney games.

TIP-INS

1. The Pac-12 and Atlantic-10 conferences combined to go 7-0 in Thursday’s second round.

2. Oregon senior E.J. Singler on Thursday became the school’s all-time leading scorer (1,517 points), passing Aaron Brooks (1,511).

3. The 27 wins by the Ducks is third-most in program history.

(6) Memphis Tigers vs. (3) Michigan State Spartans (-5.5, 130.5)

No. 3 seed Michigan State looked dominant in an easy win over Valparaiso in its NCAA Tournament opener on Thursday. Things will get a little tougher on Saturday, when the Spartans take on No. 6 seed Memphis at Auburn Hills, Mich. The Tigers edged Saint Mary’s in their opener and will be able to match Michigan State athletically. Memphis has won seven straight games and showed on Thursday it can win at a slower pace.

The Tigers like to get out in the open floor and run up the score, but a 54-52 win over Saint Mary’s required more patience from the likes of point guard Joe Jackson and swingman Adonis Thomas. Michigan State has the type of Big Ten pedigree that can force teams to play at its pace and the NCAA Tournament pedigree with coach Tom Izzo that will always make it a contender. The Spartans have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen in four of the previous five seasons.

TV: 2:45 p.m. ET, CBS

ABOUT MEMPHIS (31-4): Tigers coach Josh Pastner picked up his first NCAA Tournament win at the school on Thursday and will be looking for its first win of the season over a ranked opponent on Saturday. Memphis fell at home to top-seeded Louisville on Dec. 15 in its only other chance. The Tigers also lost to their only Big Ten challenger - 84-75 to Minnesota in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in November. But Memphis built up plenty of confidence by ripping through Conference USA and had gone over 80 points in four straight games before slowing things down against the Gaels. Jackson led the way with 14 points on Thursday and does the bulk of the ball handling for a team that ranked fourth in the country in assists.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (26-8): The Spartans blasted Valparaiso on Thursday, with only a 10-0 burst in the final two minutes pulling the Crusaders within the 65-54 final margin. Michigan State has more size on the interior than the Tigers and showed that off against Valparaiso with 23 points and 15 rebounds from senior forward Derrick Nix. “It’s my last go-around,“ Nix told reporters, “and I’m not ready to be done yet.” Adreian Payne, Nix and Branden Dawson along the front helped the Spartans control the glass on Thursday and open things up for freshman Gary Harris and junior leader Keith Appling on the outside. The Spartans do not have any players left over from the 2008 squad, which fell in the Sweet Sixteen to Memphis in the only other NCAA Tournament meeting between the schools.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven Saturday games.
* Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Conference USA.
* Under is 6-1 in Spartans’ last seven overall.

TIP-INS

1. Izzo is 38-14 in the NCAA Tournament.

2. Memphis senior swingman D.J. Stephens blocked eight shots on Thursday and has swatted away 19 in the last three games.

3. Michigan State outrebounded Valparaiso 49-23 on Thursday and is 23-7 when controlling the glass.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Saturday, March 23

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East Regional: Day 3 NCAAB betting preview
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(12) California Golden Bears vs. (4) Syracuse Orange (-7.5, 124.5)

Twelfth-seeded California scored an upset over Nevada-Las Vegas in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. The Golden Bears’ reward for that is a date Saturday in San Jose, Calif., with No. 4 seed Syracuse, which put on one of the most impressive displays of the entire second round in a demolition of Montana. The Orange nearly set a school record with their 81-34 victory and will be looking to book a trip to the Sweet Sixteen for the fourth time in five years.

California has the benefit of being within 50 miles of its campus, and a strong support from the crowd was evident in the 64-61 victory over the Rebels. Syracuse had little trouble with the environment against the Grizzlies, but will have to contend with a more partisan crowd when it faces the Golden Bears. The Orange are on a roll after reaching the finals of the Big East tournament and leaned on senior guard Brandon Triche for 20 points Thursday.

TV: 9:40 p.m. ET, TBS

ABOUT CALIFORNIA (21-11): The Golden Bears benefited from something that Syracuse has employed for years in the win over UNLV - a zone defense. California’s zone led to an 11:23 stretch in which the Rebels failed to score and the Golden Bears surged out to a nine-point lead before holding on in the final minutes. California was one of the last at-large teams to make it into the NCAA Tournament and has not advanced to the Sweet Sixteen since 1997. Coach Mike Montgomery’s team has a pair of guards in Justin Cobb and Allen Crabbe that average a combined 34.1 points and will try to push the tempo. Crabbe, who was voted Pac-12 Player of the Year, led the way with 19 points and nine rebounds on Thursday.

ABOUT SYRACUSE (27-9): The Orange’s zone confounded Montana into 20.4 percent shooting in a performance that nearly set Syracuse school records for dominance. The 47-point margin of victory was two off the team’s NCAA Tournament record of 49 in a first round victory over Brown in 1986, and it set an NCAA Tournament record for the biggest win by a team seeded third or lower. Triche and Michael Carter-Williams form a backcourt strong enough to challenge Cobb and Crabbe, and the Orange have plenty of size on the interior as well. Syracuse seems to be recovered from a rough stretch at the end of the regular season that saw it drop four of five - all to ranked teams.

TRENDS:

* Golden Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 5-0 in Golden Bears’ last five Saturday games.
* Under is 4-0 in Orange’s last four games following a win of more than 20 points.

TIP-INS

1. The Golden Bears have held five of their last seven opponents to less than 40 percent from the field.

2. Syracuse has never faced California in the NCAA Tournament and has not faced a Pac-12 team since beating Arizona State in the second round in 2009.

3. Orange F C.J. Fair is 9-of-12 from 3-point range in his last five games.

(6) Butler Bulldogs vs. (3) Marquette Golden Eagles (-2, 126)

After narrowly avoiding a second-round upset bid from Davidson, No. 3 Marquette plays No. 6 Butler on Saturday in the third round of the NCAA Tournament in Lexington, Ky. Vander Blue scored seven points in the final 1:33 - including the game-winning layup with one second left - as the Golden Eagles came back from a six-point deficit with 1:10 left to beat the Wildcats 59-58. Blue also hit a game-winning shot in Marquette’s regular-season finale against St. John’s to clinch a share of the Big East regular-season title. The Golden Eagles have won five of their last six games, but will have their hands full facing a Bulldogs team loaded with postseason experience.

Butler staved off 11th-seeded Bucknell 68-56, regularly double-teaming Bison star center Mike Muscala. Andrew Smith helped hold Muscala to nine points on 4-of-17 shooting and controlled the paint with 14 points and a career-high 16 rebounds. After one year away from the Big Dance, Butler is attempting to make its third Sweet 16 in four seasons - losing in back-to-back national championship games in 2010 and 2011. The Bulldogs beat Marquette 72-71 on Rotnei Clarke's 3-pointer at the buzzer on Nov. 19 at the Maui Invitational earlier this season.

TV: 7:45 p.m. ET, CBS

ABOUT MARQUETTE (24-8): Blue (14.4 points) has registered 16-plus points in three of his last four games, stepping up as the Golden Eagles’ go-to scoring option late in the fourth quarter. He and Jamil Wilson (9.6 points) combined for three 3-pointers in the final minute against Davidson, with Wilson’s second trey in the span pulling Marquette within one point with 10 seconds left. Davante Gardner adds 11.4 points on 58.4 percent shooting for the Golden Eagles, who are playing in their seventh consecutive NCAA Tournament and are looking for their third straight Sweet 16 appearance.

ABOUT BUTLER (27-8): The sharpshooter Clarke (16.7 points) scored 11 of his 17 points against Bucknell in the final 8:44, helping the Bulldogs recover from a six-point, second-half deficit. Clarke shoots 40.7 percent from deep and 88.2 percent from the foul line, scoring 20 points on Marquette earlier this season. Smith (11.1 points, 6.0 rebounds) could cause Marquette problems in the frontcourt, stretching Gardner with his speed and aggression on the boards. Roosevelt Jones (10.2 points) put up 14 points, five rebounds and four assists against Bucknell.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six Saturday games.
* Golden Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs’ last five Saturday games.

TIP-INS

1. Butler has won 11 of its last 13 NCAA Tournament games - the two losses coming in the 2010 and 2011 title games.

2. The Bulldogs sealed Thursday's victory by shooting 25-for-28 from the foul line, including 18-for-20 in the last 4:43.