The bum's 2012 nfl sept. Best bets !

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up Opening Day in the NFL.....

13) Bronco fans have to be happy as hell, watching Peyton Manning lead Denver to a 31-19 win over Pittsburgh; Steeler defense never stopped the Broncos after the first quarter (36 plays, 291 yards on last four drives that weren't kneel-downs at the end of each half).

12) Robert Griffin III's first six passes were all behind the line; his 7th pass went for an 88-yard TD, as Washington took advantage of a Saints' squad that doesn't have its head coach, and is learning a new defense. Redskins posted a 40-32 upset in the Superdome; three 1st round picks for RGIII didn't look bad on this day.

Redskins averaged 11.5 yards per pass attempt. best in NFL; Jets' 9.9 was next-highest figure. Could've won big bucks betting that exacta.

11) Teams that scored a TD on defense or special teams were 4-5 this week, surprisingly bad; Miami's punt return TD was their only touchdown all day. It doesn't help that the Dolphins' best WR might be their rookie starting QB Taneyhill, who played WR for two years at Texas A&M.

10) Michael Vick had a brutal day, with one TD and four INTs on his first 14 drives of the day, but he led the Eagles 91 yards for a TD when it mattered most, and the Iggles escaped the Dawg Pound with a 17-16 win.

9) Atlanta led the Chiefs 20-17 in Arrowhead when the Chiefs missed a game-tying 40-yard FG with 9:07 left in third quarter; they went into the tank after that, and got drilled 40-24 in their home opener.

8) Kevin Kolb came off the bench to save Arizona after John Skelton hurt his ankle; he led the Redbirds to the winning score in a strange 20-16 game when the refs gave Seattle an extra timeout in the last minute, when Seahawks had the ball inside the 10-yard line at the end of the game.

All 16 Seattle points came on drives that started in Arizona territory.

7) Green Bay ran ball 14 times for 45 yards, not winning numbers; they lost 30-22 at home to San Francisco, which ran ball 32 time for 186 yards. You're not beating good teams without some balance on offense.

6) Jets hung 48 points on Buffalo, scoring a defensive TD and one on a punt return, proving for the 10,000th time that exhibition games mean next to nothing- they converted 10 of 14 on third down in crushing Buffalo.

5) We're charting plays of 20+ yards this season, think its an important statistic. In 14 games this weekend, there have been 117 explosive (20+ yard) plays, an average of 4.2 per team.

Chicago led league with nine explosive plays Sunday; Carolina/Indy both had seven. Rams/Seahawks had the least (one each) and both of them lost, too. Anyway, we'll track it this season to see if it is significant.

4) Breaking down explosive plays by downs, we find that 47 of them came on first down, 46 on second, 20 on hird and four on 4th down. Think there are teams out there who aren't aggressive enough on first down.

3) Home favorites are 4-5 so far this week, home dogs 3-2 (2-0 in divisional games). Over is 8-6 heading into the Monday doubleheader.

2) Teams with a positive turnover ratio are 8-2 this week; only Rams (+3) and Browns (+1) lost, and both those teams were winning in the last 90 seconds. Young teams need to learn how to finish off close games.

1) Five rookie QBs started this week; they went 1-4, 2-3 against spread, with Redskins only team to win. RGIII didn't play like a rookie.

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Las Vegas Betting Notes

September 10, 2012

After 611 days away from his last NFL regular season start, Peyton Manning made his debut with the Denver Broncos on Sunday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers. No one quite knew what to make of the 36-year old four-time MVP -- coming off of four neck surgeries -- and how it would all relate to the Broncos team rating in relation to the betting numbers.

Las Vegas sports books actually gave Manning the benefit of the doubt by increasing the Broncos ratings by about 5-to-6 points from last year's Tim Tebow-led squad, but it was more of a cautionary rating, kind of like dipping your foot in the water to see if it's it cold. When the LVH posted early Week 1 spreads in April, they posted Denver as two-point favorites. They got a little bit of Steelers action, dropped to -1 ½ and it stayed there for most of the summer all the way through Sunday night, which shows that sharp money was just as cautious and curious about what Manning would do as well.

During the preseason, we didn’t get too much to look at. Manning had a couple games where he threw a few interceptions off tipped passes, but then in the third game of preseason against a great 49ers defense, he went to work and put up 17 points in his one quarter of action. It was in that game that he showed he still had something left in the tank and gave us a preview to what would happen Sunday night.

After a sluggish start Sunday night, and some slow playing by the Steelers offense that led to a 10-minute advantage in possession time, Manning got into a groove and scored on four straight possessions to end the game. He ran the hurry-up no-huddle offense, calling plays on the fly and moving players around with hand signals just as he did in Indianapolis. It was a thing of beauty to watch as he completed 19 of 26 passes for 253 yards and two touchdowns, doing so against the top-rated defense from last year.

The betting public was all in with Manning and the Broncos Sunday night. Straight bets, which move the numbers, were close to being even which is why there wasn’t any line movement. But as far as Joe Public with his $20 parlay -- which consists of the majority of play, about 75 percent of them had the Broncos with another 50 percent of those having the OVER.

Needless to say, the 31-19 win by the Broncos wasn’t a good decision for the books. The first 12 games on Sunday went well for the house with the public favorites going 5-7 against-the-spread, but half of the winnings from those games were wiped away with one Manning Denver debut.

Earlier, the books had taken their biggest lumps with the Texans blasting the Dolphins, 30-10 as 13-point favorites. They also got toasted on the Patriots beating the Titans, 34-13, despite having large sharp action on the Titans pushing the line down to -5. When those were the first two games posted, it looked like it would be the beginning to a very bad day.

But everything was gravy from there on out, or at least prior to the Broncos game. Sharp money had bet the Redskins all week pushing the Saints from -9 to -7, but the public didn’t care what the spread was. They were intent on firing away on the Saints 'til they came marching home with another home cover. Why not, they covered all nine home games last season and had the highest home rating in football. Redskins dominated, 40-32 with a money-line payout of +320.

Although the books hate losing to the sharps, they were pleased this time because of the mounting risk piled up from the Patriots and Texans going into the Saints. Had it not been for Peyton Manning’s return, Robert Griffin III would have been the lead topic on all sport talk radio shows.

When the Lions failed to cover eight points against the Rams, and then the Eagles didn't cover nine points at Cleveland, it eliminated any real serious risk damage from eight, nine, and 10-team parlays.

Things got even better in the afternoon when all three underdogs won outright. The Packers, Panthers, and Seahawks had all the public support and the sports books raked in most of the chips with those games. Not only did they knock out the parlays and straight bets, but they eliminated most of the live teasers and the favorite money-line parlays that were still alive.

It was looking like the perfect weekend for the sports books that had begun with the Cowboys beating the public’s popular choice of the Giants on Wednesday night. College football had once again been excellent with 14 of the 26 underdogs that covered winning outright. They had weathered the parlay storm with the Texans and Patriots, now the only thing left to extract almost every piece of loose change in the bettors pocket was knock down the Broncos, and keep the game UNDER.

Well, you know how the story ends. But to make the burn sting a little more, Denver cornerback Tracy Porter took a pick-six back for the final Broncos score to send it OVER in the final three minutes that sealed the deal.

Don’t feel sorry for the books, though. They still won on the day. Most of all, they should proud for putting on such a great show everywhere in town. Sorry Tao, Pure, or any one of the countless clubs hard to keep up with, the most exciting places to be over the weekend in Las Vegas was at the sports book. Even the most rubbish game on paper between the Jaguars and Vikings turned out to be one of the best games of the day.

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Posting now as am heading out to the BlackHole....

Monday, September 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 7:00 PM ET Cincinnati +7 500

Baltimore - Over 41.5 500

San Diego - 10:15 PM ET Oakland -1 500

Oakland - Under 46.5 500

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Bears Visit Packers On Thursday Night Football

The Green Bay Packers are in an early must-win situation when they host their NFC North rival Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football.

The Don Best NFL odds screen opened Green Bay as 6-point favorites, but it’s now 5½ with a total of 49. This is the start of Week 2 and the NFL Network will have the 8:20 p.m. (ET) broadcast as part of their new full-season package.

Green Bay was the top team in the initial Don Best Linemakers Poll, but fell to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, 30-22 as 6-point home favorites. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers finished with good numbers (30-of-44 for 303 yards, two TDs and one pick), but directed the Packers offense on just one scoring drive before a second with 6:05 remaining cut the deficit to the final margin.

The Packers have now lost 2-straight at Lambeau after the 37-20 defeat to the Giants in the playoffs last year. They were 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread at home in last year’s regular season.

Rodgers and the passing attack are still very dangerous, but need more help from the rushing game (45 yards on 14 carries last week). Free agent addition Cedric Benson was easily contained, but will likely be the starter again with James Starks (turf toe) out indefinitely.

Coach Mike McCarthy’s defense was the other big question heading into last game after allowing a league-worst 299.8 YPG last year. The run defense was particularly disappointing against San Fran in allowing 186 yards (5.8 ypc), while Alex Smith was an efficient 20-of-26 passing for 211 yards.

Several Pack rookies saw time on defense and will need to turn things around quickly in their second NFL game.

Chicago is feeling great about itself after an opening 41-21 win and cover over Indianapolis as 10-point home favorites. The Bears took advantage of three interceptions and a fumble by rookie quarterback Andrew Luck, likely making him wish he was back at Stanford.

The Bears new-look offense shined with receivers Brandon Marshall and rookie Alshon Jeffery combining for two TDs and almost 200 yards receiving. Michael Bush and Matt Forte added three TDs on the ground.

Quarterback Jay Cutler (333 passing yards, 98.9 rating) has to feel giddy about his new weapons, but still has to prove himself on the road. Chicago is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in his home games (32.7 PPG) since last year, but just 2-2 SU and ATS on the road (20 PPG).

Coach Lovie Smith was happy to see linebacker Brian Urlacher (knee) back after missing the entire preseason. He was pulled early in the fourth as a precautionary measure. Cornerback Charles Tillman (leg) left in the second quarter and didn’t return. He’s listed as questionable and is needed against Rodgers and company.

Chicago has lost four-straight games in Green Bay (1-3 ATS). Last year’s 35-21 loss on Christmas was with Cutler (thumb) already out for the year.

The ‘under’ is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the teams overall, although going ‘over’ in that Christmas game.

Total bettors will note the ‘over’ is 7-0 in Green Bay last seven home games, with the 52 combined points scored with San Fran breaking the 46½-point hurdle.

Green Bay can’t afford another home loss and possibly falling two games back in the division behind Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota (all Week 1 winners).

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NFL Week 2 Preview: Bears vs. Packers

CHICAGO BEARS (1-0)

at GREEN BAY PACKERS (0-1)


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -5, Total: 49½

After losing its opener to San Francisco, the road doesn’t get much easier for Green Bay when it hosts the rival Bears on Thursday night.

The Packers have beaten Chicago four times in a row SU (3-1 ATS), and should be looking forward to this one after being smothered by San Francisco’s elite defense last week. The Bears offense looked good in a warm-up opener against Indy, racking up 41 points and 428 yards of offense against a weak defense. The Packers defense has struggled over the past year, but Chicago has posted no more than 21 points in the teams’ past five meetings while averaging 15.0 PPG. The Bears did manage to run for 199 yards and control the clock for 35:48 in their 35-21 Christmas Day loss on the Tundra last season.

Who will prevail in this classic rivalry game? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Bears QB Jay Cutler is just 1-6 all-time versus Green Bay, throwing 7 TD’s and 12 INT’s. However, he is coming off a fine game against the Colts, completing 21-of-35 passes for 333 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. His favorite receiver was reunited teammate Brandon Marshall who thrived in his Chicago debut with nine catches for 119 yards and a touchdown. Rookie WR Alshon Jeffery also scored in his NFL debut, gaining 80 yards through the air on just three catches. The Bears also rushed for a solid 114 yards and three touchdowns. Matt Forte gained 120 total yards (80 rushing, 40 receiving) while Michael Bush ran for 42 yards and two scores in his first game in a Chicago uniform. The Bears had the ball for 35:28, but the defense still allowed the Colts to amass 356 total yards. However, Chicago did force five turnovers, including picking off Andrew Luck three times. The likely return of CB Charles Tillman (leg injury) will certainly help this secondary.

Despite the Week 1 home loss, Rodgers had a pretty strong performance with 303 yards passing on 30-of-44 completions. He tossed two touchdowns and one interception, while targeting five different receivers at least six times each. The Packers were dominated in the running game during the loss, as San Francisco chewed up 186 yards on the ground compared to just 45 for Green Bay. Newcomer Cedric Benson mustered just 18 yards on nine carries. Defensively, the Packers will look to put pressure on Cutler with star OLB Clay Matthews, who tallied 2½ sacks in Week 1. Although Chicago has kick-return king Devin Hester, the Packers are also in great shape in their return game with Randall Cobb who ran back a punt 75 yards for a touchdown and finished the game with 230 all-purpose yards (80 punt return, 77 receiving and 73 kick return).

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Drew Brees, Saints Look To Bounce Back at Carolina

It was the Week 1 game that had everyone talking, and it just might end up spelling trouble for the Carolina Panthers though they had nothing to do with it.

Robert Griffin III will never forget his official NFL debut no matter what else he may achieve in his career. The 2011 Heisman Trophy winner led his Washington Redskins to a tremendous upset to get the pro football campaign rolling, tossing a pair TDs and throwing for more than 300 yards in a 40-32 victory in New Orleans against the Saints who were giving eight points. That should have Drew Brees and Company in a bad mood when they travel to Charlotte for Sunday's matchup with the Panthers.

Oddsmakers and a lot of bettors apparently think it's the Saints who are in trouble, not Carolina. New Orleans opened as a 3-point favorite, but was quickly down to -2½ at most shops in Las Vegas monitored by the Don Best Pro Odds. A couple of offshore sites had the Saints at -1 for the NFC South battle.

NFL betting windows posted a total in the 50½-51 span for Sunday's kickoff at Bank of America Stadium which is part of FOX's early broadcast lineup.

Perhaps it was a perfect storm that led to New Orleans' loss to Washington, starting with Griffin's effort and Mike Shanahan's coaching record in season openers, now 15-4 and counting. There was also all of the offseason turmoil surrounding the Saints who spent the entire preseason planning around suspensions only to have DE Will Smith and LB Jon Vilma pardoned two days before the season opener. Vilma did not play as he continues to recover from knee surgery in the offseason while Smith started and got in on four tackles.

All eyes will be on the defense this Sunday after the 'Skins rolled up 464 yards of total offense in Week 1. Saints defenders never intimidated Griffin into turning the ball over as Washington ended with a clean slate in that column. Brees and the New Orleans offense coughed up three TO's, meanwhile, his second of two picks turning into the Redskins' final seven points.

Carolina is also coming off at setback as chalk after falling 16-10 in Tampa Bay. The Panthers were laying a field goal in the contest and never could recover from a 13-zip halftime deficit that was decided on the ground in the end. The Buccaneers ran for 130 yards to help keep Cam Newton and the Carolina offense off the field with nearly a 25-minute advantage on the clock.

Newton did have over 300 yards through the air, but also threw a pair of INT's and didn't factor at all in the running game as he did so often a year ago. He didn't fare so well against the Saints last season with a combined QB rating below 80 in the two games.

New Orleans has won the last four meetings to take a narrow 6-4 lead in the last 10. The teams split ATS a year ago with home covers and Carolina is 6-2 ATS the last eight. One other winning bet in recent years has been the 'under' when the squads play in Charlotte, an 8-game streak to that side snapped last October at BoA Stadium, a 30-27 Saints win with a 51½-point mark.

Early injury reports list three Carolina players as questionable for Sunday's match, including starting DE Greg Hardy who is nursing a sore shoulder. Reserve guard Jeff Byers (knee) and backup tailback Jonathan Stewart (ankle) are in the same boat.

New Orleans may be without WR Devery Henderson due to a concussion that has him questionable. Nickle cornerback Johnny Patrick is also questionable with an injured right knee.

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NY Jets Soar Into Pittsburgh To Face Steelers

The much maligned New York Jets offense silenced its critics for at least one week. They have a much tougher test on Sunday at an angry Pittsburgh Steelers team.

New York is 6-point ‘dogs on the Don Best NFL odds screen despite their Week 1 success. The total is listed at 41½ and kickoff from Heinz Field in the Steel City is set for 4:25 p.m. (ET).

Coach Rex Ryan’s offense was the laughingstock of the NFL in the preseason (going 0-4 straight up and against the spread). The Jets scored one offensive touchdown in total and it came with third-stringer Greg McElroy at the helm. Both Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow were ineffective and the quarterback situation appeared to have disaster written all over it.

Now fast forward to last Sunday. The Jets scored six touchdowns in a 48-28 home win over Buffalo as 3-point favorites. While two of those scores came on defense and special teams, Sanchez (19-of-27 for 266 yards, three TDs and one pick) looked in midseason form, reenergizing the Jets fan base.

New York’s defense did allow 169 rushing yards to Buffalo running back C.J. Spiller, but a lot came with the game out of reach. All-Pro corner Darrelle Revis had a key interception in the first quarter and while he later suffered a concussion, he’s listed as probable for Sunday.

The Jets have to feel great about their start, but certainly can’t get too overconfident. They went 2-6 SU and ATS away last year as part of a disappointing 8-8 campaign that saw them miss the playoffs for the first time in Ryan’s three years.

Pittsburgh had a tough primetime opener at Denver, losing 31-19 as 2½-point underdogs. Peyton Manning didn’t show any rust with a 129.2 quarterback rating, although Pittsburgh still had a chance to win before Ben Roethlisberger threw a pick-six to Tracy Porter with under two minutes remaining.

Ironically, it was Porter’s interception return for a touchdown versus Manning in the Super Bowl a few years back that iced the game for New Orleans.

Coach Mike Tomlin’s guys did control time of possession against Denver (35-25 minutes) despite rushing for just 75 yards (2.9 ypc). Running backs Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman are carrying the load with Rashard Mendehall (knee) still out indefinitely.

One key this Sunday will be pressuring Sanchez, who was not sacked last week despite the presence of highly-paid Buffalo defensive end Mario Williams. Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau got to Manning just two times without star rusher James Harrison (knee).

Harrison is still listed as questionable this week and there are also questions on the right side of the o-line with guard Ramon Foster (eye) and tackle Marcus Gilbert (knee) both questionable. Pittsburgh should get back safety Ryan Clark (spleen).

The Steelers are consistently elite at home, going 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS last year (the ‘under’ 6-2). They are also 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a SU loss.

Pittsburgh hasn’t started a season 0-2 since 2002 and Tomlin will pull out all the stops to make sure it doesn’t happen again.

Make sure to check out the Don Best Pro Odds for all the NFL Week 2 action. It’s the best tool in the business bar none.

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Indy Rookie Luck Makes Home Debut Against Vikings

Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts NFL Betting Preview
Date: 9/16/2012 at 1:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Pick'em, O/U 44.5

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings (1-0 straight-up, 0-1 against the spread) have failed to cover five of their last six games, including the preseason and dating back to last year’s regular-season finale. They needed to rally back for a 26-23 overtime victory in Week 1 against Jacksonville after giving up a 39-yard touchdown pass from Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert to WR Cecil Shorts with 20 seconds remaining. The good news is Minnesota rookie kicker Blair Walsh nailed a game-tying 55-yard field goal as time expired in regulation and then followed that up with a game-winning 38-yarder in OT. Second-year QB Christian Ponder also played well for the Vikings, throwing for 270 yards with no interceptions, while star RB Adrian Peterson showed no ill effects of offseason knee surgery with 84 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Expect Peterson’s workload to increase from 17 carries against an Indianapolis Colts team that gave up 114 yards on the ground and three rushing touchdowns to the Chicago Bears in a 41-21 loss last week.

Indianapolis Colts: Despite coming off a poor season, the Colts (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) have still covered four of their past six regular-season games dating back to last year and will see rookie QB Andrew Luck play his first home game after a solid debut last week on the road against the Bears. Luck completed 23-of-45 passes for 309 yards with one touchdown to WR Donnie Avery in the fourth quarter, but he also threw three interceptions. Avery, WR Reggie Wayne and TE Coby Fleener combined for 36 targets from Luck and totaled 18 catches between them for 254 yards. Minnesota’s defense struggled against the pass last week, surrendering 260 yards through the air and two touchdowns from Jacksonville QB Blaine Gabbert, so Indy would be wise to throw the ball around again in hopes of earning their first win of the season.

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Detroit Lions Visit NFC Favorite San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers are the newly anointed NFC favorite, but have another tough test on the docket when they host the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football.

San Fran is between a 6½-7 point favorite with a total of 46. NBC will start the broadcast from Candlestick Park in the Bay Area at 8:20 p.m. (ET).

San Francisco had a hard opening game at Green Bay last Sunday, but clearly was the better team in the 30-22 victory as a 6-point road ‘dog. The big advantage came on the ground with a huge 186-45 margin. That helped win the time of possession (33-27 minutes).

The 49ers (+250) have now replaced Green Bay as the favorite in the NFC future odds. The updated Don Best Linemakers Poll for NFL ratings has not been released yet, but San Francisco certainly should move up from the fourth-place tie shared with Pittsburgh prior to Week 1 action.

Second-year coach Jim Harbaugh knew he had an elite defense and running game heading into the season. The passing game with quarterback Alex Smith was the big question and he was 20-for-26 for 211 yards (125.6 rating) against Green Bay. Having two new receivers in Randy Moss and Mario Manningham should do wonders for his confidence all season.

San Francisco had an incredible season last year, but especially at home (8-2 straight up, 8-1-1 against the spread). The one ATS failure came in the 20-17 loss to the Giants as a 2-point favorite in the NFC title game. That outcome would have been different without two key turnovers.

Detroit had a much tougher time in its opening game, a 27-23 win over St. Louis. The Lions were big 9-point home favorites, but needed two separate fourth-quarter comebacks, the second a game-winning touchdown pass from Matthew Stafford to running back Kevin Smith with five seconds left.

Stafford threw for 355 yards overall, but also had three picks, which won’t cut it in San Francisco. Smith led the running game with 62 yards on 13 carries and Detroit will need offensive balance this week after being 31st in the league last year in rushing attempts.

Coach Jim Schwartz is breathing a sigh of relief, but needs to get his guys focused on playing away. The Lions were 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in their final five road games last year, including a 45-28 loss to New Orleans in the wild-card playoff round.

Note the ‘over’ was 8-1 in Detroit’s road games last year, allowing 37 PPG in the final five where the competition was extremely tough.

The Lions have some key injuries with cornerbacks Chris Houston (ankle) and Bill Bentley (concussion) both questionable. Safety Louis Delmas (knee) is also out indefinitely. The tailback Smith is starting because Mikel Leshoure (suspension) and Jahvid Best (concussion) are still out.

This is a rematch of the infamous San Francisco comeback win (25-19) in Detroit last October. Harbaugh and Schwartz got into an exchange during the postgame handshake, although both say the issue is well in the past.

That final score snuck ‘under’ the 45-point total and the ‘under’ is 8-0 in the last eight meetings between the teams overall, 6-0 in the last six in San Francisco.

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KC Chiefs Seek Revenge Sunday At Buffalo Bills

One rather unique aspect of English sports bookmaking is the “first manager to be sacked” prices listed at the beginning of each season in the EPL. (In case you’re interested, Southampton’s Nigel Adkins is currently the favorite at 5/2).

We suspect if similar odds were to be quoted on NFL head coaches, Buffalo’s Chan Gailey might be the shortest-priced option on the board.

Although it’s still early in the 2012 campaign, it’s already becoming nervous time for the Bills...and Gailey in particular. Last week’s humbling 48-28 loss in the opener against the Jets continued a nosedive that commenced in the middle of last season.

About the only saving grace for Buffalo is that visiting Kansas City enters Orchard Park on Sunday with its own set of concerns. It might not be much of an edge, but these days, the Bills will take any advantage they can get.

Oddsmakers in fact are suggesting that Gailey and Buffalo might have a chance to get back on the right track on Sunday. As noted on the Don Best NFL odds screen, the Bills are listed as 3-point favorites at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, with the total at 45 shaded to the 'under.'

Kickoff time at Ralph Wilson Stadium will be 1:00 p.m. (ET), with CBS providing TV coverage.

The case for Buffalo, however, is not an easy one to construct, especially on the technical side. That opening loss to the Jets dropped the Bills’ 10-game mark (stretching to just before midseason a year ago) to 1-9 straight up and 2-8 against the number. Moreover, Buffalo failed to cover all four of its chances as a home favorite last season and is just 1-6 vs. the spread its last seven as home chalk.

And, while we know preseason doesn’t mean much, the Bills also lost all four of their exhibition games. Counting those, Buffalo is now 1-13 SU in its last 14 games. If the saying “winning begets winning” means anything, Gailey’s team is at a further disadvantage at the moment.

About the only technical plus we can find for the Bills this week is that they did wallop the Chiefs, 41-7, in last year’s opener at Arrowhead, although Kansas City was a decimated squad at the outset of 2011, and Buffalo was actually winning games last September. Obviously, however, much has changed since.

There is a possibility, however, that Buffalo could be the lesser of two evils in this matchup. Kansas City is also 0-1 after being humbled in its opener by Atlanta, 40-24. In addition, the Chiefs’ defense was depleted last week with the absence of four key contributors. We can only be confident about one of those (LB Tamba Hali, having served a league-mandate one-game suspension) being back on the field at Orchard Park; Safety Kendrick Lewis (shoulder), CB Brandon Flowers (heel) and DT Anthony Toribio (ankle) were all inactive last week. Those three all remain iffy for action on Sunday.

Romeo Crennel’s defense, which helped fuel a late-season charge a year ago, is also hoping that Memphis rookie NT Dontari Poe can help upgrade what was a somewhat leaky run defense a year ago. Results were mixed in the opener, as the Falcons rushed for only 85 yards but also didn’t worry too much about establishing the infantry as QB Matt Ryan was able to throw successfully whenever he wished. Poe was very active in his debut, although that is not exactly what the coaches are looking with a two-gap, 3-4 nose tackle who is supposed to stay at home and clog this middle. Poe remains a work in progress.

Capitalizing on these potential Chief shortcomings, however, could be problematic for the Bills after they lost top runner Fred Jackson to a knee injury in the Jets opener. Jackson, expected to be out at least a month, has thus ceded the feature-back role to ex-Clemson charge C.J. Spiller, who has flashed real upside in brief spurts in the past but now must assume a heavier workload.

What concerns Bills fans most, however, is not whether Jackson or Spiller carries the ball, but rather QB Ryan Fitzpatrick keeping better care of the pigskin. Picking up where where he left off in the disastrous second half of '11, Fitzpatrick tossed three more picks in the opener against the Jets, continuing a dizzying interception rate after leading the league in picks with 23 a year ago.

Belatedly, Fitzpatrick padded his stats late in the New York opener after the Jets were conceding yardage with a huge lead late in the game, but don’t be fooled; Fitzpatrick is a liability at the moment, and many AFC East sources believe the under-fire Gailey (who can’t afford a slow break from the gate if he wants to keep is job) is not far away from looking to his bullpen for help. Recently-acquired former Vikings and Seahawks starter Tarvaris Jackson could get the call soon if Fitzpatrick continues to implode.

Also disturbing to Bills fans is the continuing underachievement of a defense that continues to prove the definition of the parts being greater than the sum. Well-publicized and supposed upgrades in the offseason included landing prized free-agent DE Mario Williams from Houston, plus DE Mark Anderson from the Patriots and highly-regarded South Carolina rookie CB Stephon Gilmore in the first round of the April NFL Draft, Buffalo’s stop unit was feeble vs. the Jets.

As for new DEs Williams and Anderson, they could only have been less factors had they not dressed for the game; the supposedly improved Bills pass rush, one of the worst in the league last season when recording only 29 sacks, allowed Mark Sanchez to sit unbothered in the pocket all afternoon when he was never sacked, or much less touched, helping contribute to the Jets converting 10-of-14 third-down tries.

Buffalo’s defense, which allowed a franchise-record 5,938 yards and second-worst all-time 434 points last season, hardly looks improved for defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt. This could pose severe problems against Kansas City QB Matt Cassel, who has better receiving options at his disposal than do the Jets.

If there is one technical edge to be gleaned from Buffalo’s defensive downturn it’s that it has contributed to a spate of higher-scoring games since last season; the Bills are now 'over' 11-6 since the beginning of the 2011 campaign following the 76 combined points posted with the Jets in the opener.

One positive for the Chiefs in their opener vs. the Falcons was the return to action of RB Jamaal Charles, who went down for the count in Week 2 last September due to a knee injury but looked good upon his regular-season return vs. the Falcons, gaining 87 yards on 16 carries, including one 45-yard run in which he looked like the Charles of old.

In an opening week in which neither the Bills nor the Chiefs had much to cheer about, Charles’ performance was at least an encouraging development for Kansas City. We’re hard pressed to think of one of the same for Buffalo.

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NFL Tech Trends - Week 2

NFL, 8:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Chicago at Green Bay Pack has won last three SU vs. Bears and is 7-1 vs. line last eight in series. Pack has also won and covered last four vs. Bears at Lambeau. Pack also "over" 15-6 last 21 since late 2010. Pack and "over," based on team and series trends.

Sunday, Sept. 16 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Tampa Bay at New York Giants G-Men only 1-6 vs. line last 7 as home chalk, but Bucs no covers last 7 on road a year ago. Slight to Giants, based on Bucs road woes.

Arizona at New England Belichick "over" 28-10-1 last 39 since late 2009, although Big Red "under" 2-6 away LY. Belichick only 7-8 vs. line last 15 at Gillette Stadium, but Whisenhunt only 6-11 vs. line last 17 on road. Slight to "over," based on extended Belichick "totals" trends.

Kansas City at Buffalo Bills have lost last five SU vs. Jets and are just 1-4 vs. number in those games. Chan Gailey closed 2011 on 2-7 spread run and Bills just 2-6-1 against spread their last nine on road. Jets "over" 28-12 last 40 since late 2009. "Over" and slight to Jets, based on "totals" and series trends.

Minnesota at Indiapolis Vikes only 9-18-1 last 28 on board. Also mere 3-12 vs. number last 15 on road. Colts, based on recent Vikings downturn.

New Orleans at Carolina Panthers have covered 8 of last 11 meetings. Both meetings "over" LY and Cam was "over" 10-5-1 in 2011, while Saints now "over" 13-7 last 20. Saints only 3-7 last 10 as road chalk. "Over" and Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.

Kansas City at Buffalo Bills have dropped 8 of last 10 vs. number, also 0-4 mark as chalk at Orchard Park LY and 1-6 last 7 in role since 2010. Chiefs "under" 17-6 last 23 since late 2010, and covered 5 of last 7 as road dog LY. Chiefs and slight to "under" based on team and "totals" trends.

Baltimore at Philadelphia Andy Reid only 4-7 vs. line last 11 at Lincoln Financial Field. Ravens, based on team trends.

Oakland at Miami Counting preseason, Miami 0-5 vs. line TY. Dolphins "under" 9-3 last 12 at home. Raiders 7-2 vs. line last 9 on road. Raiders and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Cleveland at Cinny Teams split pointspread results the past two seasons. Brownies "under" 11-5-1 since LYs. "Under," based on Browns' "totals" trends.

Houston at Jacksonville Kubiak on 15-5 spread run including wins and covers in both vs. Jags LY. Texans, based on team trends.

Sunday, Sept. 916 - All games to start at 4:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Dallas at Seattle Pete Carroll "over" 22-12-1 since 2010, Seahawks also 12-5 vs. spread as host under Carroll. Cowboys only 2-4 vs. line last 6 away despite win over Giants in opener. "Over" and Seahawks, based on Pete Carroll trends.

Washington at St. Louis Rams "under" 23-13 last 36 since late 2009, Shanahan "under" 19-14 since 2010, but both "over" last week. Slight to "under" and Skins, based on "totals" and team trends.

New York Jets at Pittsbugh Rexy just 2-6-1 vs. line last 9 on road. Steel 10-4 vs. line last 14 at Heinz Field. Steel's former "over" home trend has cooled a bit but Jets "over" 29-12 last 41 since late 2009. "Over" and Steelers, based on "totals" and team trends.

Tenn at San Diego Even after Oakland win, slow-starting Norv 6-9-1 vs. line in first three games of season since taking over Bolts in 2007. Titans, based on Norv early-season trends.

Sunday, Sept. 16 - NBC, 8:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Detroit at San Francisco Lions dropped their last five vs. the number on the road last season. Meanwhile Jim Harbaugh was 8-1-1 vs. line at Stick LY. Lions "over" 24-12-2 last 38 since late 2009. "Over" and 49ers, based on "totals" and team trends.

Monday, Sept. 17 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Denver at Atlanta Falcs 10-4 vs. line last 14 at home since early 2010. Denver, however, was 6-2 as road dog LY, and Peyton Manning 9-2 last 11 as dog since 2005 (not counting end-of-season games when he didn't play at Seattle in 2005 and Buffalo in 2009). Broncos "over" 27-12 last 39 since late 2009. "Over" and Broncos, based on "totals" and team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Marshall, Bears offer new challenge to Pack

September 12, 2012

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) - With two words, Jay Cutler dismissed the notion that the Green Bay Packers would be able to disrupt the Chicago Bears' new-look wide receiver corps with physical play: Good luck.

Emboldened by a makeover that featured the arrival of Brandon Marshall, Cutler believes the Bears are better prepared to handle any sort of clutching, grabbing or jamming by the Packers.

``Our speed guys are going to get around them and our big guys are going to throw and go,'' Cutler said. ``We invite press coverage. We invite man. And if we get in that type of game, our guys outside have to make some plays for us.''

And if the Bears (1-0) somehow find a way to outscore Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (0-1) at Lambeau Field on Thursday night, the result will be something that seemed unlikely going into the season: The Bears could send the NFC North heavyweights to an unlikely 0-2 start at home.

Four days after their defense got pushed around in a season-opening loss to the San Francisco 49ers, the Packers must find a way to stop a Bears offense that put up 41 points on Indianapolis in a Week 1 victory.

Renewing the productive partnership he had with Cutler in Denver, Marshall caught nine passes for 119 yards with a touchdown.

``They definitely have better personnel, especially on the perimeter,'' Packers cornerback Tramon Williams said. ``Jay has confidence in those guys and is definitely going to give those guys a chance to go get the ball.''

Williams said Marshall's size and skill present a tough challenge but added, ``I'm up for the task.''

Marshall had a big game the last time he faced the Packers, catching 10 passes for 127 yards with the Miami Dolphins in 2010. He welcomes the physical brand of coverage the Packers have used to neutralize Bears receivers in the past.

``It's all about matchups,'' Marshall said. ``I'm 6-5, 230. There aren't too many DBs walking around that big. If they want to get physical, I do welcome that. But again, you look at Williams and (Sam) Shields over there and even (Charles) Woodson when he's down there, they like to mix it up a lot. They give you different looks and that's what gives them big-play potential.''

Besides changes on offense, which also included drafting another big wide receiver in Alshon Jeffery and signing free agent running back Michael Bush to team with Matt Forte - the Bears also have a new look led by Mike Tice.

``I think there is a big difference to what we are doing offensively,'' Cutler said. ``This is a totally different scheme, a mentality and direction that we are going offensively. So, there would be no advantage for (the Packers) watching tape from last year of what we did. It's totally different. I think they understand that.''

One thing the Bears didn't appear to fix in the offseason was their offensive line.

Cutler was sacked 23 times in 10 games last season before breaking his right thumb. He was sacked twice in Sunday's victory over Indianapolis - and the Colts played most of the game without Dwight Freeney, who left with a sprained left ankle.

While the Packers' defense got pushed around by the 49ers, it did manage to sack Alex Smith four times. That's an indication that they might have fixed one of last year's biggest defensive deficiencies.

``I thought we did some good things in the pass rush,'' Packers coach Mike McCarthy said. ``The statistical support of that would be the four sacks, but I thought we had good pressure (throughout the game).''

Green Bay could be without wide receiver Greg Jennings, who hurt his groin in the game, has missed practice time and is listed as doubtful. The Packers could again try to create mismatches with Randall Cobb, who caught a team-high nine passes last week.

Rodgers tore the Bears apart in last time the teams met, completing 21 of 29 passes for 283 yards and five touchdowns in a Christmas Day win at Lambeau.

The Packers will be hoping for more production from Cedric Benson, who had nine carries for only 18 yards last week. Benson, a first-round pick by Chicago in 2005, had 189 yards rushing when he faced the Bears with Cincinnati in 2009.

Expect Rodgers to test linebacker Brian Urlacher, who missed nearly all of training camp and the preseason with a left knee injury that required surgery. With the Bears up big, Urlacher came out of the Colts game early, presumably to rest up for the quick turnaround.

``Looks like he's moving around pretty good,'' Rodgers said. ``They were up by 20 when he came out. I would expect him to be ready to go.''

Bears coach Lovie Smith insists that Urlacher is the same player he was before the injury.

``He still is that guy,'' Smith said. ``He's the face of our franchise. That's not going to change. He had an injury. A lot of guys go through injuries. I thought last week that was a good start for him. He got about 30 plays. He was old Brian.''

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 2

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Chicago at Green Bay, 8:20 ET NFL
Chicago: 3-12 ATS off a turnover margin of +4 or better
Green Bay: 4-0 ATS after allowing 175+ rushing yards


Sunday, September 16, 2012

Tampa Bay at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 30-10 Under in the first two weeks of the season
NY Giants: 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

Arizona at New England, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 6-10 ATS in road games
New England: 18-6 Over after scoring 30+ points

Minnesota at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 2-11 ATS away off a home win by 3 points or less
Indianapolis: 20-7 Under after allowing 300+ passing yards

New Orleans at Carolina, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 7-0 ATS after having 50+ pass attempts
Carolina: 6-0 Over off a road game

Kansas City at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 13-32 ATS vs. AFC East opponents
Buffalo: 16-6 Over at home vs. AFC West opponents

Baltimore at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 7-1 ATS after scoring 40+ points
Philadelphia: 7-14 ATS vs. AFC North opponents

Oakland at Miami, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 17-2 Under away off a home division loss
Miami: 34-15 ATS vs. AFC West opponents

Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 8-1 Under as an underdog
Cincinnati: 8-24 ATS off a loss by 21+ points

Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Houston: 11-3 ATS vs. conference opponents
Jacksonville: 6-0 Under at home off a road loss

Dallas at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Dallas: 4-15 ATS as a favorite
Seattle: 18-8 Over vs. conference opponents

Washington at St. Louis, 4:05 ET
Washington: 22-10 Under away after allowing 30+ points
St. Louis: 11-25 ATS vs. NFC East opponents

NY Jets at Pittsburgh, 4:25 ET
NY Jets: 12-3 Over as an underdog
Pittsburgh: 8-0 ATS off a loss

Tennessee at San Diego, 4:25 ET
Tennessee: 10-2 Under away in the first two weeks of the season
San Diego: 19-3 ATS vs. NFC South opponents

Detroit at San Francisco, 8:25 ET NBC
Detroit: 4-14 ATS away vs. NFC West opponents
San Francisco: 6-0 ATS at home off a road game


Monday, September 17, 2012

Denver at Atlanta, 8:35 ET ESPN
Denver: 6-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Atlanta: 6-18 ATS at home off a win by 14+ points

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 2

Thursday's Game
Bears (1-0) @ Packers (0-1)— Increased urgency for Pack after getting outrushed 186-45 in last week’s loss to 49ers; losing two home games to start season invites a disaster. Green Bay needs to run ball better than last week’s paltry 45 yards on 14 carries. Pack won last four games in NFL’s oldest rivalry (one of which was playoff game in Chicago), with wins by average score of 23-14; Chicago lost its last four visits to Lambeau by average score of 26-11. Cutler started out 1-12 last week but later led five TD drives and led NFL with nine plays of 20+ yards. Bears are 4-5 in last nine road openers, scoring 15 or less points in losses, 21+ in wins. Over last 20 years, Chicago is 7-6 against the spread as an underdog in road openers. Seven of their last eight road openers stayed under total. Short week!!!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 2

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Bears at Packers: What bettors need to know
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Chicago at Green Bay (-5.5, 51.5)

The Green Bay Packers don't have much time to recover from their season-opening loss as they host the NFC North-rival Chicago Bears on Thursday night. Green Bay, which went a franchise-best 15-1 last season before being upset by the New York Giants in its first playoff game, already has matched its loss total as it dropped a 30-22 decision at home to San Francisco on Sunday. The Packers' rebuilt defense looked eerily similar to last season's disappointing unit, while their "improved" ground attack saw quarterback Aaron Rodgers emerge as the team's leading rusher with 27 yards.

The loss was the first in a season opener since 2006 and ended the 13-game regular-season home winning streak of the Packers, who take on a Chicago team that rolled to a 41-21 home victory over Indianapolis in Andrew Luck's NFL debut. Chicago finished 8-8 last year, losing both meetings with Green Bay by a combined score of 62-38. The Bears have lost four consecutive matchups with the Packers and six of seven but lead the all-time series 92-86-6. Chicago has not won at Lambeau Field since Oct. 7, 2007, when it posted a 27-20 triumph.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Packers -5.5, O/U 51.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 50 percent of showers at Lambeau Field. Winds will be light out of the north.

ABOUT THE BEARS (1-0): The reunion of QB Jay Cutler and WR Brandon Marshall paid immediate dividends as the former Denver Broncos worked extremely well together in their first game as Chicago teammates. Marshall registered 119 yards on nine receptions, including a 3-yard touchdown catch in the second quarter that put the Bears ahead for good. RB Matt Forte could wind up being a disgruntled player if the events that took place in the season opener continue. Forte gained 80 yards on 16 carries and scored on a 6-yard run but was replaced in several goal-line situations by newcomer Michael Bush, who had a pair of 1-yard TDs. Chicago made some roster moves the day after their victory, signing former Steelers OT Jonathan Scott and activating DT Nate Collins from the reserved/suspended list. The Bears also waived P Ryan Quigley.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (0-1): The Packers are hoping to avoid their first 0-2 start since 2006, Mike McCarthy's first season as head coach. Green Bay needs a better performance from RB Cedric Benson, who gained just 18 yards on nine carries in his debut with the Packers. Benson had three disappointing seasons with Chicago after being drafted fourth overall in 2005 but revived his career in Cincinnati, where he eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark three times in four years. DE C.J. Wilson suffered a groin injury early in Sunday's loss. Wilson's attempt to return later in the first quarter was unsuccessful. WR Randall Cobb made it two straight season openers with a return TD, although Sunday's 75-yard punt-return score was a gift as the replacement officials initially penalized Terrell Manning for blocking from behind before picking up the flag. Cobb returned a kickoff an NFL record-tying 108 yards for a TD against New Orleans in the 2011 opener.

TRENDS:

*Under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
*Packers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.
*Over is 6-0 in Bears’ last six games following an ATS win.
*Over is 5-0 in Packers’ last five games following a straight-up loss.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Chicago's point total in the season opener was its highest since scoring 48 in a victory on Oct. 4, 2009, over Detroit.

2. Packers LB Clay Matthews, whose sack total dropped from 13.5 in 2010 to a mere six last year, recorded 2.5 in Sunday's loss.

3. The Bears could be without Pro Bowl CB Charles Tillman, who left Sunday's game in the first quarter with a lower leg injury.