The Bum's Aug-Sept College Football Best Bets !

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I don't know why this didn't get posted earlier this morning but this is what i had.....Sorry about that....

Saturday, September 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Wake Forest - 12:00 PM ET Florida State -27.5 500
Florida State - Under 53.5 500

Western Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Western Michigan +3 500
Minnesota - Over 55.5 500

Arkansas State - 12:00 PM ET Arkansas State +23 500
Nebraska - Under 66.5 500

California - 12:00 PM ET Ohio State -16.5 500
Ohio State - Under 55 500

UL Lafayette - 12:00 PM ET UL Lafayette +23.5 500
Oklahoma State - Over 73.5 500

Virginia Tech - 12:00 PM ET Virginia Tech -10 500
Pittsburgh - Over 45 500

Northern Illinois - 12:00 PM ET Northern Illinois -3.5 500
Army - Over 48.5 500

Texas Christian - 12:00 PM ET Texas Christian -20.5 500
Kansas - Under 59.5 500

Eastern Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Purdue -24 500
Purdue - Under 50.5 500

UL Monroe - 12:20 PM ET UL Monroe +15 500
Auburn - Over 53.5 500

Connecticut - 12:30 PM ET Maryland +2.5 500
Maryland - Over 40 500

Alabama - 3:30 PM ET Arkansas +20 500
Arkansas - Under 53 500

Texas A&M - 3:30 PM ET Texas A&M -10.5 500
Southern Methodist - Under 61.5 500

East Carolina - 3:30 PM ET Southern Mississippi -7.5 500
Southern Mississippi - Over 56 500

Virginia - 3:30 PM ET Georgia Tech -10 500
Georgia Tech - Under 52.5 500

Boston College - 3:30 PM ET Northwestern -3 500
Northwestern - Under 54.5 500

North Carolina - 3:30 PM ET Louisville -3 500
Louisville - Over 56 500

Massachusetts - 3:30 PM ET Massachusetts +45.5 500
Michigan - Over 53.5 500

Navy - 3:30 PM ET Penn State -7 500
Penn State - Under 47.5 500

Florida International - 4:00 PM ET Central Florida -17 500
Central Florida - Over 50 500

Miami (Ohio) - 4:00 PM ET Miami (Ohio) +21 500
Boise State - Over 53.5 500

Florida - 6:00 PM ET Tennessee -3 500
Tennessee - Under 47.5 500

South Alabama - 6:00 PM ET North Carolina State -30.5 500
North Carolina State - Under 51.5 500

Ohio - 6:30 PM ET Marshall +6.5 500
Marshall - Over 69 500

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Evening Games:

Western Kentucky - 7:00 PM ET Kentucky -6.5 500
Kentucky - Over 49.5 500

Arizona State - 7:00 PM ET Arizona State +3.5 500
Missouri - Under 59 500

Middle Tennessee - 7:00 PM ET Middle Tennessee -4.5 500
Memphis - Under 54.5 500

North Texas - 7:00 PM ET Kansas State -27.5 500
Kansas State - Over 55 500

Alabama-Birmingham - 7:00 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham +33.5 500
South Carolina - Under 53.5 500

New Mexico - 7:00 PM ET Texas Tech -32.5 500
Texas Tech - Under 65 500

Rice - 7:00 PM ET Rice +21 500
Louisiana Tech - Over 67 500

Bowling Green - 7:00 PM ET Bowling Green +3 500
Toledo - Over 60.5 500

Mississippi State - 7:00 PM ET Mississippi State -14.5 500
Troy - Over 57.5 500

Southern California - 7:30 PM ET Stanford +7.5 500
Stanford - Under 55.5 500

Florida Atlantic - 7:30 PM ET Florida Atlantic +41.5 500
Georgia - Over 52.5 500

Idaho - 8:00 PM ET Idaho +42.5 500
Louisiana State - Under 52 500

Notre Dame - 8:00 PM ET Michigan State -5 500
Michigan State - Under 42.5 500

Colorado - 8:00 PM ET Fresno State -14 500
Fresno State - Under 57.5 500

Colorado State - 8:00 PM ET San Jose State -11 500
San Jose State - Over 47.5 500

Ball State - 8:00 PM ET Ball State +2.5 500
Indiana - Over 64 500

Utah State - 8:00 PM ET Utah State +14.5 500
Wisconsin - Under 51.5 500

New Mexico State - 8:00 PM ET New Mexico State +13 500
Texas El Paso - Under 58.5 500

Texas - 9:15 PM ET Mississippi +11 500
Mississippi - Over 52 500

Brigham Young - 10:00 PM ET Utah +3.5 500
Utah - Over 45.5 500

Houston - 10:30 PM ET UCLA -17.5 500
UCLA - Under 75.5 500

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Kent State At Buffalo Bulls For MAC Opener

Kent St. Golden Flashes at Buffalo Bulls College Football Betting Preview
Date: 09/19/2012, 7:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Buffalo -2½; O/U 52

Kent State Golden Flashes: Darrell Hazell brings Kent State (1-1 straight up and against the spread) into its MAC opener off a whipping at the hands of Kentucky last week that saw the Wildcats negate an early 7-0 deficit and roll to the 47-14 victory. The Flashes suffered several big-play lapses on defense with four of UK's six touchdowns coming on plays of 26 yards or more. KSU ranks in the lower third of the country in total defense (427.5 ypg) and will now face a Buffalo offense that is 39th in total offense averaging nearly 460 yards per game. The Golden Flashes are meeting the Bulls for the first time in three seasons and won their last trip to Buffalo in 2008 as 10-point underdogs.

Buffalo Bulls: The Bulls (1-1 SU & ATS) were popped at Georgia in their season opener before rebounding with a 56-34 win vs. Morgan State a little more than a week ago. Buffalo fell short of covering the 31½-point line against the Bears after easily beating the big 37½ points college football oddsmakers were giving them in the 45-23 loss to the Bulldogs. Brandon Oliver had a huge day on the ground for the Bulls in the win vs. Morgan State, rushing for nearly 240 yards on 25 totes. That followed 111 yards against Georgia, and the Bulls enter this game 17th in the land with over 250 yards on the ground per game. Their defense has struggled keeping the opposition off the scoreboard, however, with Buffalo opponents putting up close to 40 points per game. The Bulls have won five of the last seven meetings with Kent State, and covered five of the last eight along with a 'push.'

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BYU, Boise State In Thursday College Football Spotlight

What was once considered to be a possible “BCS Buster elimination” game has lost a lot of its national luster. That’s because Brigham Young (2-1) and Boise State (1-1) each have a loss on their ledgers before the autumnal equinox, rendering it highly unlikely that either will crash this year’s BCS party.

But it could still be a darned good football game between these two on Thursday night on the blue carpet at Bronco Stadium.

A quick check of the Don Best college football odds screen notes that host Boise has been posted as an early 7½-point favorite at the majority of Las Vegas sports books. Kickoff time on Thursday will be 9:00 p.m. (ET), with ESPN and its usual Thursday night crew of Rece Davis, Jesse Palmer and David Pollack on hand to describe the action.

BYU was thinking it would still be undefeated entering this matchup, although all of that changed on Saturday night against an aroused and slight underdog Utah side playing without first-string QB Jordan Wynn, who decided to retire from football after reinjuring his shoulder the preceding week at Utah State. The fired-up Utes, however, could still call upon QB Jon Hays, who relieved Wynn for most of the 2011 season.

Still, BYU has reason to feel aggrieved by the 24-21 loss at Rice-Eccles Stadium after bravely rallying from a 24-7 deficit. In fact, 6th-year senior (or is it 7th? 8th?) QB Riley Nelson had dramatically led a last-second charge downfield that gave the Cougs a chance to at least force an overtime with a game-tying field goal.

Instead, the final seconds turned into a gridiron version of the famed USA-USSR Olympic Gold Medal basketball game in the 1972 Olympics at Munich, with BYU getting two chances to level the score and force overtime after the game was originally thought to have concluded. Only the Cougs couldn’t capitalize, first watching a 51-yard try by Justin Sorensen blocked, then watching Riley Stephenson bounce a 36-yard try off the upright to preserve Utah’s 24-21 win.

Although BYU came up just short vs. its nastiest rival, longtime regional observers remain impressed by the Cougars and suggest this might be the most physical Provo outfit in decades. Several playmakers, including thick, 321-lb. NT Romney Fuga, remain in the fold from last year’s stop unit that ranked 13th nationally in total defense.

Through three games, BYU is rating even better on the stop end than a year ago, ranked ninth in total defense (allowing a mere 241 ypg) and, thanks in part to the run-stuffing Fuga, sixth in rush defense at only 53 ypg.

Thus, Boise is going to be faced with another challenge similar to its opener against another foe (Michigan State) with a robust, veteran-laced defense. That one didn’t work out too well for the Broncos, held to just 206 yards for the evening and unable to score an offensive TD (soph DB Jeremy Ioane’s interception return providing the only touchdown). Boise ended up on the short end of a 17-13 scoreline.

Of course, that was also the first start by new Broncos QB Joe Southwick, recently caddy to the decorated Kellen Moore but now the leader of the Boise offense. The Broncos were a bit sluggish again on the attack end when they returned to action last Saturday when hosting Miami-Ohio, and were laboring at halftime when ahead only 15-9. But the lights seemed to turn on for the Boise “O” in the second half as Chris Petersen’s team scored 21 points in the third quarter en route to a 39-12 win.

Southwick’s one-game progress was hard to miss, as he completed 24-of-31 passes for 304 yards and a pair of TDs vs. the RedHawks. Moreover, the Broncos got their infantry going against Miami, in particular RB D.J. Harper, who gained 162 yards and tallied three TDs in the process.

The challenge against the BYU defense, however, will more resemble what Boise faced in the opener vs. Michigan State.

Meanwhile, let’s see the Cougar recuperative powers after the bitter loss to the Utes. Despite holding Utah to 245 yards, BYU’s late rally could not overcome a 17-point deficit that was fueled by a Utah fumble return TD. Down 17, the Cougs rallied to within three points behind by veteran lefty QB Nelson, but could not pull level in the final seconds.

Boise’s defense, almost completely rebuilt from last season, has held up fairly well in the first two games, allowing just 29 points total. The challenge on Thursday, however, will be to cope with QB Nelson, the first mobile signal-caller the Broncos have faced this season.

Nelson also has great rapport with rangy 6-foot-4 wideout Cody Hoffman, who has gained more than 100 yards receiving in each of the last two BYU games and already has 18 catches on the young season.

Boise’s win over Miami last week was also the first spread cover for the often-overvalued Broncos on their home blue carpet after seven consecutive losses against the number. Meanwhile, BYU has dropped its last two spread decisions after an 8-game pointspread win streak that spanned the end of the 2011 campaign into the opening win and cover vs. Washington State.

The teams have not met since 2004 when Boise held on for a 28-27 home win vs. Gary Crowton’s BYU. The Broncos, then coached by Dan Hawkins, had won the previous year at Provo by a 50-12 count.

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Oregon State Begins Pac-12 Play At UCLA Bruins

Pac-12 foes collide in ABC's mid-afternoon time slot this Saturday when the Oregon State Beavers and UCLA Bruins meet at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena.

The conference opener for both schools entered the college football betting card with the host Bruins an 11-11½-point favorite before being quickly bet down to 9-9½ at most shops listed on the Don Best Pro Odds. Scoreboard bettors are deciding high/low on a 54½-point total.

A strange twist of scheduling has the Bruins off to a 3-0 start while the Beavers have had a couple of weeks off and will be playing just their second game of the season. Oregon State didn't have the luxury of a tune-up game due to their season opener vs. Nicholls State being canceled because of Hurricane Isaac a few weeks ago.

That game will be made up in Corvallis at the end of the Beavers' schedule on Dec. 1, and is already the leading contender for Letdown Game of the Year on the collegiate gridiron. Oregon State will play at Stanford and then home against Cal and Oregon in the three weeks leading into the makeup game, the final conference game against the Ducks probably carrying both conference championship as well as BCS implications.

Mike Riley's team didn't let that cancellation bother them in a 10-7 win over the Wisconsin Badgers, however, and never needed the six points that college football oddsmakers were giving them against the then-No. 13 team in the land. Oregon State's defense played near flawless football, keeping Wisconsin off the board until a score with 91 ticks left on the clock.

Despite building a 10-0 halftime lead, QB Sean Mannion and the Beavers missed several opportunities to manufacture an even bigger advantage before stalling out on a couple drives and missing a field goal late in the second quarter. Mannion and OSU enjoyed an efficient and mistake-free day, but cannot afford to leave points on the field against a UCLA team that is 20th in the country scoring more than 40 per game.

UCLA won its third straight to begin the campaign with a 37-6 shellacking of Houston last week, and first-year head coach Jim Mora was especially pleased to see his defense play its best game so far. The Bruins surrendered 54 points total in wins over Rice and Nebraska to begin the campaign, but came within three minutes and one play of shutting out the Cougars who were 17½-point underdogs in LA.

Brett Hundley passed for 320 yards and a couple of scores, giving him eight TD tosses and a 154.2 QB rating on the year. But the redshirt freshman also tossed a couple of INTs and he'll be facing a solid Oregon State secondary led by sophomore safety Ryan Murphy and senior corner Jordan Poyer.

Hundley directs what has so far been a very balanced Bruins attack that is averaging over 300 yards per game both through the air and on the ground. UCLA ranks second in total offense (622 ypg) with senior Johnathan Franklin supplying a big chunk of that yardage on the ground with over 180 yards per game, first among all FBS running backs.

The Bruins' 27-19 win in Corvallis last year was their second straight in the series to give them a 41-15-4 all-time advantage. UCLA is 7-2 straight up the last nine, covering eight of those games. The 'under' is on a 4-year run, with the last three played at the Rose Bowl also failing to reach the total.

Saturday's forecast for Pasadena calls for the afternoon high reaching 90 with partly cloudy skies and no chance of rain.

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Upset-Minded Louisiana-Monroe Hosts Baylor Bears

Baylor Bears at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks College Football Betting Preview
Date: 09/21/2012, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ESPN
Opening Lines: Baylor -8, O/U 68


Baylor Bears: The Bears (2-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) have picked up where they left off offensively a year ago under eventual Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III. Victories over SMU (59-24) and Sam Houston State (48-23) left Baylor with the 6th-best scoring offense and eighth in total offense averaging close to 580 yards per game. Senior Nick Florence has thrown for over 300 yards in the two previous games and has seven touchdown passes already. Another senior, Terrance Williams, has been Florence's favorite target to date with 13 catches for nearly 270 yards. It's on the defensive side where head coach Art Briles has to be concerned, especially considering the level of competition in the first two games. Baylor is in the bottom third of the country allowing 459 yards per game while surrendering 23.5 points per game to the Mustangs and Bearkats, who actually took a 20-10 lead into the locker room last week in Waco before the Bears got things going.

UL-Monroe Warhawks: Louisiana-Monroe (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) has served notice it means business and isn't going to simply provide easy fodder for the bigger schools. The Warhawks were 30-point underdogs when they went into Little Rock and pulled off a stunner with a 34-31 overtime upset over Arkansas. They almost repeated last week at Auburn as 15-point underdogs before falling 31-28 to the Tigers, again taking an SEC school to OT. ULM will now play its home opener in front of what should be a raucous crowd with ESPN's cameras on hand at Malone Stadium. Kolton Browning had over 400 yards through the air in the win vs. the Razorbacks, and has a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio in his first two games. The junior also leads the Warhawks in rushing, scoring two more times via the ground. Friday will mark the first meeting between the two schools, with ULM 16-5 in its last 21 home games and Baylor 1-4 its last five away from Waco.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 4 Betting System

September 17, 2012


Game Four On The Floor

Our powerful database tells us that Game Four is a critical turning point for most college football teams, especially if they're playing off their first loss of the season.

From a handicapping perspective, the venue goes a long way in determining Game Four ATS (Against the Spread) results as well.

Check out the situations of teams in Game Four, off their initial loss of the season, since 1980…

BAD HOMERS

Teams playing at HOME in this role tend to perform poorly as evidenced by a 90-109-3 ATS overall mark since 1980.

Home teams in that role this week include:

Arizona State vs. Utah
Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan
Tennessee vs. Akron
USC vs. California
Virginia Tech vs. Bowling Green
Wake Forest vs. Army

Louisiana Lafayette (next week vs. FIU)

If these teams are allowing more than 27 points per game on the season (Wake Forest and Louisiana Lafayette) they dip to 6-19-2 ATS. To top it off, if they are allowing more than 27 points per game on the season and are facing a foe that is not off a spread win of 35 or more points in its last game these bummed-out hosts sink to 3-19-2 ATS. Wake Forest finds itself in this precarious role this week.

GOOD VISITORS

Teams playing AWAY in this role somehow find point-spread success, nearly reversing their home counterparts by going 101-78-2-1 ATS dating back to 1980.

Away teams in that role this week include:

BYU at Boise State
Maryland at West Virginia
Mississippi at Tulane
South Florida at Ball State
Utah State at Colorado State
Virginia at TCU

These teams are taking to the road this week after having their dreams of a perfect season ruined last week. (Note: Indiana will journey out in this role next week at Northwestern.) When these teams are also off an ATS loss, they improve to 89-56-1 ATS in these 'Game Four On The Floor' situations, with all of the above teams, except Utah State, in this role week.

And if these teams off a spread loss are facing an opponent that is off a SU and ATS loss they ratchet up to 28-11 ATS, including 17-4 ATS if the won 7 or fewer games last season. That would put Ole Miss in this desirable role this week.

There you have it… a critical Game Four theory that will likely 'floor' a team or two this week!

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Games to Watch - Week 4

September 16, 2012

Saturday - Clemson at Florida State (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Matchup Skinny

This is basically the de facto ACC championship game. These two teams are clearly the class of the ACC and both play in the ACC Atlantic division…so it's basically like 'Bama/LSU and the SEC West. Well, minus the national championships, NFL caliber players, national interest and top tier coaching. Obviously both teams are very good in the ACC and some people even have Florida State possibly playing for the national championship this year. Problem is, the rest of the ACC is atrocious. Clemson has actually won five of the last seven meetings, including a 35-30 win last year while putting up nearly 450 yards of offense. The one key player missing last year was Florida State QB EJ Manuel, who was out with an injury. Now they have Manuel back under center, are at home in Doak Campbell Stadium and are looking to take regain control of the ACC that they once dominated. In order to do that the FSU defense will need to slow down Clemson QB Tajh Boyd who threw all over them last year to the tune of 344 yards. While the Clemson offensive line is young and rebuilding, Boyd also has new weapons in WR DeAndre Hopkins and RB Andre Ellington. Florida State is a two touchdown home favorite and if they can hold off Clemson this weekend they have the easiest path of any Top 10 team to make it to the National Championship where they won't face another ranked team until they host Florida the last weekend of the season.

Saturday - Kansas State at Oklahoma (FOX, 7:50 p.m. ET)

Matchup Skinny

This game will answer two questions at once; Are the Sooners better than they have looked so far, and are the Wildcats really as good as they have looked so far? So far Kansas State looks like they have not only picked up where they left off last year but actually improved. Anyone that has ever tried to argue that coaching is overrated need not look any further than Bill Snyder and Kansas State. He may be roughly 127 years old but Bill Snyder can flat out coach. Kansas State may not be as good as they were in his original stint in the "Little Apple" but behind standout QB Collin Klein the Wildcats are once again nationally relevant. After two early season routes and a comfortable Week 3 win, Kansas State now faces an OU team that came into Manhattan last year and dropped the hammer on them winning 58-17. OU is 62-8 against the Wildcats in their last 70 meetings and the opening 14-point line indicates that number could easily reach 63 wins come Saturday night. However OU looked very shaky in their opening win against UTEP and then dominated Florida A&M, which of course means nothing. This game will come down to whether the OU defense can slow down Klein and the K-State offense. If they can, it will be a long night in Norman for Bill Snyder, if not the Wildcats could keep this close and FOX television analyst Gus Johnson might go, well, Gus Johnson on us.

Saturday - Arizona at Oregon (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)

Matchup Skinny

If you like high-scoring football games, congratulations you're in luck. After opening against two middle schools and a high school the first three weeks of the season, the high powered Oregon offense faces their first real test this weekend against Arizona. While the Ducks' numbers on the surface aren't as impressive as they could be, that is mostly due to the fact that their starters have been pulled and are sipping Mai Thai's by the time the band takes the field at halftime. If you haven't seen Oregon play yet I highly recommend staying up late and tuning in for this one. Oregon redshirt freshman QB Marcus Mariota and Sophomore RB De'Anthony Thomas are about as entertaining as it gets in college football. Arizona also comes in 3-0 and has crept into the top 25 after squeaking out an overtime win in week one against Toledo, a shootout against an overrated Oklahoma State team and a route against a directional state school last week. Unlike Mariota, Arizona QB Matt Scott will look to do most of his damage through the air while Arizona RB Ka'Deem Carey will also need to keep up his early season success if the school is to have any chance to upset Oregon at Autzen Stadium. Oregon opened as a 25 ½-point favorite, so the Ducks winning isn't really the question; how many points can these two teams combine to score will be the biggest question for this and many of the Ducks' games this season.

Other Games to Watch

Matchup Skinny

Michigan at Notre Dame - If the ACC is atrocious then the Big Ten or Notorious B1G or whatever they are called now is a step below atrocious. At least the Big Ten has Urban Meyer at Ohio State, which is their only hope of being good this year. With that said Notre Dame is now 2-0 against Big Ten teams and look to improve that mark this weekend against QB Dernard Robinson and the Michigan Wolverines. This was one of the more exciting games of the 2011 season when Michigan scored a touchdown on the final drive with under 30 seconds to play to cap off one of the largest fourth-quarter comebacks in the series history. The Wolverines lead the series 23-15-1 with three straight wins including five of the last six meetings. Michigan is looking to prove that their week one beating at the hands of Alabama was not indicative of their 2012 squad while the Irish, a touchdown home favorite, are looking to start 4-0 for the first time in 10 years and once again be nationally relevant. If this game is anywhere near as exciting as it was in 2011 they may have to delay the OU/K-State and borrow Gus Johnson for the last 5 minutes.
at Baylor at Louisiana-Monroe - I just wanted to include this game because I have fallen in love with ULM the last two weeks and was heartbroken when they lost their chance to go undefeated in the SEC after blowing another late comeback against Auburn. In a related story, someone needs to let Bobby Petrino know that the Auburn AD is holding for him on line 1. This game will be played under the lights on Friday, with ESPN providing national coverage.

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4th Quarter Covers - Week 3

September 18, 2012

Glancing at the scoreboard won't tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the 4th quarter last week in college football. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

Washington State (-9½) 35, UNLV 27 (56): Washington State led 28-10 late in the 2nd quarter but UNLV immediately responded, connecting on a 75-yard pass play to get within 11 and then adding a field goal as the first half expired to put the margin at eight, right at or near a line that bounced around all week, ranging from -8 after opening at -11½, and eventually closing back at -9½. Washington State struck early to go up by 15 in the 4th quarter but UNLV fought back with a touchdown with under two minutes to go to take the cover back. The total was also eclipsed with that late touchdown as well.

Michigan (-45) 63, Massachusetts 13 (55): Scoring was not going to be the problem for Michigan covering this massive spread but a suspect defense would likely need to hold the Minutemen to a very low number for a chance at the cover. These teams played in 2010 with Michigan winning by just five but it was a much different story this time. Michigan raced out to a big lead, leading 42-13 at halftime but still well short of the spread. The Wolverines kept its starters in for much of the 3rd quarter and added two more touchdowns but they were still short of the spread with a 43-point margin heading into the 4th. Following a missed Massachusetts field goal, Michigan put together a long drive that resulted in the covering score.

Northwestern (-4) 22, Boston College 13 (55): The Wildcats continue to have a knack for the dramatic as they led just 15-10 entering the 4th quarter, just past the small spread. Boston College added a field goal early in the final frame to cut the margin to just two. Neither team was able to do much on the next two possessions each as there were four consecutive punts but the Wildcats took advantage of great field position to punch in a touchdown with less than two minutes to go to seal the game and create the final nine-point margin. Although a final touchdown from Boston College wouldn't have changed the result on the field, the spread was still in doubt late as the Eagles went deep into Northwestern territory against soft defensive coverage, ending the game with three straight incomplete passes as time expired from the Northwestern 20-yard line.

Northern Illinois (-3) 41, Army 40 (49½): Northern Illinois led 28-13 at one point in the 2nd quarter but Army rallied to take a 34-28 lead into the 4th quarter, making the underdog cover look rather safe in a game that Army rushed for nearly 500 yards. After trading touchdowns early in the final quarter Army opted to go for two, sitting with a 40-35 lead. They failed which allowed Northern Illinois to take the lead by one when they scored with just over four minutes to go. The Huskies went for two in critical play for those involved on the spread but the pass attempt failed. Army got into the NIU territory on its final possession but couldn't get close enough for a field goal attempt and the ball turned over on downs and the Huskies got a first down to seal the game.

Connecticut (-2½) 24, Maryland 21 (39½): In a game with minimal offensive production Connecticut led 17-7 as slight road favorites entering the 4th quarter. The line closed -2½ but was solidly at -3 much of the week and Maryland tied the spread with a 29-yard touchdown pass early in the fourth quarter. Connecticut answered back to go back up by 10 but Maryland put together another touchdown drive to earn the push for many backers late in the game. Maryland had punted or turned the ball over in 10 of the previous 11 possessions so getting back-to-back scores late in the game was a bit of a surprise. The Maryland defense got the ball back for the offense in the final minutes and the Terrapins got the ball down to the Connecticut 32 but they went backwards from there. The very low total on this game was also passed with Maryland's final touchdown with just over four minutes to go in the game.

Ohio State (-17) 35, California 28 (55½): Ohio State looked like they might be able to pull away in the first half of this game but in the second half it was pretty clear the underdog was going to be able to cover in this Pac-12/Big Ten tile. The total however looked on pace to stay under most of the way as Ohio State led 20-14 entering the 4th quarter, still more than three touchdowns short of the number. The Bears took the lead early in the 4th and then there was exchange of touchdowns plus a 2-point conversion in the span of 21 seconds in the middle of the final quarter, leaving a 28-28 tie, and assuring a victory for the 'over'. The Buckeyes broke a 72-yard pass play with just over three minutes to go and then needed a big defensive play with an interception to hold off overtime.

Missouri (-4) 24, Arizona State 20 (60½): This line opened at -7½ and then fell to -6 for most of the week. When it was announced that Missouri quarterback James Franklin would sit out the line crashed to -3½ Saturday morning before settling back at -4. Timing proved critical for the result with the game ending right on four with the middle opportunity there. Missouri looked like they would cruise to an easy cover; leading 24-7 entering the 4th quarter but the Sun Devils rallied getting two touchdowns in less than three minutes earlier in the final quarter. Down four Arizona State fumbled the snap on the extra-point attempt of the second score in what proved to be a critical play, as a successful extra-point would have cut the margin to just three. Missouri missed a field goal on its next possession and Arizona State drove down to the Missouri one-yard line but needing a touchdown instead of a tying field goal, they had to go for it and they failed. Arizona State got another opportunity within the final two minutes but they were intercepted deep in Missouri territory as the Sun Devils missed a golden opportunity to move to 3-0 with another big non-conference win.

Utah (+3½) 24, BYU 21 (45½): Utah led 24-7 entering the 4th quarter, looking like a sure thing for an underdog cover at worst but things got quite interesting in the final minutes of this rivalry game. BYU scored twice in the 4th quarter to cut the margin to just three points with less than four minutes to go in the game. Utah got down to the BYU 33 but eventually had to punt the ball back, giving BYU another opportunity. After what looked like a final play incompletion, the Cougars got another shot as the officials put one second back on the clock. A long field goal attempt was blocked but then after players and fans stormed the field Utah was assessed a 15-yard penalty. The much more manageable tying field goal attempt banged off the upright and Utah finally sealed the win and those on the 'under' also gave a huge sigh of relief as the total just barely stayed 'under' in all the late drama.

Louisville (-3½) 39, North Carolina 34 (56): Playing without its best offensive player Giovani Bernard for the second straight week in an unexpected late scratch, North Carolina was getting blown out early, trailing 29-0 at one point and down 36-7 at the half. The Tar Heels made it very interesting late as they nearly delivered an improbable comeback, scoring three consecutive touchdowns in the 4th quarter to trail by just five at 39-34. Had North Carolina been successful on the final score's two-point conversion they would have had the cover and a much better shot at tying the game on its final possession, as they got the ball back after a fumble on the kickoff, eventually being stopped at the Louisville four-yard line on downs.

Louisiana Tech (-21) 56, Rice 37 (67): Louisiana Tech led by 19 entering the 4th quarter but twice pushed the lead to 26 points, past the spread in the final frame. The last score for the Bulldogs came with less than four minutes to go but there was enough time for Rice to steal the backdoor cover, getting a touchdown pass with less than two minutes to go in a game that featured nearly 1,100 yards of offense.

South Carolina (-33) 49, UAB 6 (54): South Carolina was in a bit of a battle early in this game, leading just 14-6 late in the 2nd quarter but the Gamecocks would pull away. South Carolina was still short of the spread entering the 4th quarter but added two touchdowns late in the game get past the large spread and push the total just barely 'over'.

San Jose State (-11½) 40, Colorado State 20, (48): San Jose State led by just four at halftime and was short of the closing spread entering the 4th quarter with a 24-13 lead. The Spartans led by just seven at one point in the final quarter but they scored the final two touchdowns to create a bit of a misleading final score.

LSU (-42) 63, Idaho 14 (52½): LSU only led by seven late in the first half in this match-up but a big 3rd quarter put the game away. LSU was still well short of the spread with a 49-14 lead entering the final quarter but they added two late touchdowns including the covering score with just over four minutes to go.

UTEP (-14) 41, New Mexico State 28 (59): The Miners led 27-0 at one point and still led by 20 entering the 4th quarter. They added to that lead to go up 41-14 early in the 4th quarter. New Mexico State would rally to the margin back to 20 with a touchdown drive and then with under a minute to go the Aggies stole the backdoor cover with another touchdown pass. While UTEP had a big lead the yardage in the game was pretty even as New Mexico State was able move the ball with ease after getting behind.

Nebraska (-23½) 42, Arkansas State 13 (66½): Arkansas State was a front door cover victim last week for a change as the Red Wolves were hanging tight with Nebraska, down just 15 entering the 4th quarter. The defense could not hold as Nebraska added two touchdowns in the final frame and Arkansas State had a fumble on one of its last possessions.

NC State (-29½) 31, South Alabama 7 (50½): NC State had a 31-0 shutout going into the 4th quarter in a game that was much closer in terms of yardage than the scoreboard suggested. South Alabama did not score until just five minutes remaining in the game but it was enough to steal the cover. The Jaguars actually threatened to score again in the final two minutes before an interception but NC State did nothing on offense in the 4th quarter, content to let the game run out.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 3 Rewind

September 18, 2012

On a Saturday when storied programs like Florida, Notre Dame, Texas and Alabama went on the road and posted dominant victories, the biggest development took place in Palo Alto, where Stanford knocked off Southern Cal 21-14 thanks to stellar performances from senior running back Stepfan Taylor and a defense that forced Matt Barkley into a rough night.

Taylor rushed for 153 yards and one touchdown and also scored on a 23-yard catch from Josh Nunes, who hit Zach Ertz with a 37-yard scoring strike for the game-winning points in the final stanza.

Stanford’s defense pitched a shutout in the second half, limiting the Trojans to 26 rushing yards on 28 attempts and intercepted Barkley twice.

The Cardinal, which has covered the spread in six consecutive games as a home underdog, has an open date before playing next Thursday at Washington. USC will play host to California in Week 4.

Alabama has dealt out cream-cheese treatment in back-to-back weeks after demolishing Arkansas by a 52-0 count as a 20-point road favorite. Of course, the Razorbacks were at a major disadvantage with QB Tyler Wilson unable to go after suffering a concussion the previous week in an overtime loss to ULM.

John L. Smith’s team hasn’t scored a point without Wilson over the last six quarters. A disgusted Wilson expressed his frustration with his teammates to the media after the game, noting that many of them quit in the blowout loss to the Crimson Tide.

While many of the national media have been critical of Wilson for doing so, this space applauds the leader who has seen his senior season run into the ditch by his former head coach and seen it made into a clown show by his interim head coach.

With his teammates needing a boost and a voice to follow, Wilson’s words were a last-ditch effort to save this squad. The Hogs better be ready when a Rutgers team comes to Fayetteville with extra rest on Saturday.

Nick Saban’s team will face FAU and Ole Miss at home over the next two weeks. Then ‘Bama will have a week off before consecutive road games at Missouri and at Tennessee.

Speaking of the Volunteers, they blew a 20-13 lead and lost for the eighth straight time to Florida. The Gators’ previously-pedestrian offense exploded for 555 yards of total offense thanks to excellent efforts from QB Jeff Driskel, FB Trey Burton, TE Jordan Reed and RB Mike Gillislee.

Will Muschamp’s team scored 24 unanswered points to capture a 37-20 win as a three-point underdog. UF will take on Kentucky at The Swamp and then it gets an open date to prepare for LSU in Gainesville on Oct. 6.

The Vols face Terry Bowden’s Akron Zips before going on the road to take on Georgia with their SEC East hopes on the line.

Notre Dame made a huge statement Saturday night in East Lansing, cruising to a 20-3 win over Michigan St. as a 4 1/2-point underdog. Everett Golson threw a touchdown pass and ran for another score without committing a turnover. The Irish limited the Spartans to 237 yards of total offense and held RB Le’Veon Bell to 77 rushing yards on 19 carries.

I must admit that I’ve been hesitant to come around on Brian Kelly’s team, but it certainly has my attention now. The Irish host Michigan in South Bend this week and a victory will give it a 4-0 record going into its open date.

Texas is another team I’ve thought of as overrated, mostly because of a lack of confidence in its quarterback play. And, to be clear, a blowout win at Ole Miss doesn’t completely eradicate those concerns, but the Longhorns clearly have momentum after trouncing the Rebels, 66-31.

And look at Jim Mora Jr., whose initial foray in college football at UCLA has been a rousing success to date. The Bruins, who went 21-30 during Rick Neuheisel’s four-year tenure, are 3-0 both straight up and against the spread. They get Oregon St. at home this week.

FSU still hasn’t played anyone of note, but it is certainly dealing out ruthless pimpslaps. Wake Forest was this past Saturday’s victim, taking a 52-0 shellacking that will perhaps help the Garnet & Gold faithful put the 30-0 bagel given to them by Riley Skinner and the Demon Deacons in 2006 behind them.

The Seminoles finally play a school of significance when they collide with Clemson and Mister Sammy Watkins this Saturday at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee.

Boise St. returned to normalcy on the smurf turf by producing 599 yards of total offense in a 39-12 win over Miami (OH.). The Broncos are 7 ½-point home favorites Thursday vs. BYU.

Going all the way back to 1998, Boise St. has been a single-digit home favorite only 10 times. In those spots, the Broncos are an incredible 10-0 ATS.

BYU will be in bounce-back mode following its 24-21 loss at Utah in which the Cougars had several fortunate opportunities to send the game into overtime but failed nonetheless.

In Week 3, ranked teams like LSU, Oregon, West Va., South Carolina, Georgia, TCU and Michigan cruised to victory against cupcake opponents.

Louisville stayed undefeated and avenged a 14-7 loss at North Carolina last year, but it gave its backers anxiety galore when it nearly allowed a 36-7 lead midway through the third quarter to get away. The Tar Heels erupted for 27 points and had a two-point conversion try that would’ve pulled them to within three at 39-36 with more than four minutes left.

However, the conversion attempt failed but U of L fumbled the ensuing kick-off. UNC was in the red zone with a chance to win outright in the final two minutes, only to run out of downs, giving the Cardinals a 3-0 record and a 39-34 triumph as 3 ½-point home favorites.

Charlie Strong’s team will play its next three games on the road in a four-week stretch. I believe Teddy Bridgewater and Co. have the team to beat in the Big East, but it must play its regular-season finale in frigid conditions at Rutgers on a Thursday on a short week of preparation.

As for the Scarlet Knights, they were extremely sloppy with penalties and special-teams blunders in the first half Thursday at South Florida. The Bulls didn’t really take advantage, though, and RU took over in the second half and won a 23-13 decision as a 7 ½-point underdog. Again, Arkansas better be on upset alert Saturday when Kyle Flood’s team brings its act to the Deep South.

Ohio St. got another tester at The ‘Shoe and survived – barely. The Buckeyes captured a 35-28 win over California, but the Bears easily took the cash as 17-point underdogs. Jeff Tedford’s squad stays on the road Saturday at USC.

What’s wrong with Wisconsin? I don’t have the answer but the Badgers clearly miss QB Russell Wilson, as they’re averaging only 16.3 points per game. Utah St. QB Chuckie Keeton nearly led the Aggies to back-to-back upset wins but a last-second field goal missed and Wisconsin won 16-14 at Camp Randall.

Pitt went into its home game against unbeaten Va. Tech with a pair of embarrassing performances on its resume. Now the Hokies have the ugly blemish on their record after taking a 35-17 shellacking at Heinz Field in a game that was never in doubt. Pitt won by 18 as a 10-point home underdog.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Texas A&M got Kevin Sumlin his first win with a 48-3 clubbing of SMU in Dallas. Redshirt freshman QB Johnny Manziel had a sensational performance, completing 20-of-36 throws for 294 yards and four TDs without an interception. Manziel also rushed 13 times for 124 yards and two TDs. The Aggies will most likely be favored in their next four games (vs. South Carolina St., vs. Arkansas, at Ole Miss and at La. Tech) and could be 5-1 when LSU comes to College Station on Oct. 20.

--Unless Kentucky pulls some major upsets in the next month or so, third-year head coach Joker Phillips most likely saw his fate sealed in Saturday’s 32-31 overtime loss to Western Ky. at home. Max Smith, who had thrown six TD passes compared to zero interceptions in UK’s first two games, was picked off four times by the Hilltoppers, who won on a double pass back to the QB for a successful two-point conversion. Props to Western Ky. head coach Willie Taggart on the huge victory for his Sun Belt program.

--Another Sun Belt school, Troy, gave Mississippi St. fits before falling 30-24. We should note, however, that the Trojans covered the number as double-digit home ‘dogs and tallied 572 yards of total offense.

--Dan Mullen’s Mississippi St. team has a legit shot at starting 7-0 and bringing that unbeaten record to Tuscaloosa on Oct. 27. The 3-0 Bulldogs have these four contests looming before playing at Alabama: vs. South Alabama, at Kentucky, vs. Tennessee and vs. Middle Tennessee.

--Auburn needed overtime to win for the first time in 2012, beating ULM 31-28 in overtime. The War Hawks face another BCS foe Friday when they host Baylor.

--Penn St. got its first victory under Bill O’Brien by spanking Navy 34-7 as a seven-point favorite. Senior QB Matt McGloin threw for 231 yards and four TDs without an interception. The ‘under’ is 3-0 in PSU games this year.

--By my estimations, there could be a number of SEC jobs open in December. It’s a given that Arkansas and Kentucky will be looking for new leaders. After losing to Florida, there’s no telling which way Tennessee’s season will go, so the job in Knoxville could be available. Let’s watch two other situations carefully – Auburn and Georgia. The Bulldogs are 3-0 and the favorites to win the SEC East and that’s exactly my point. If things go bad in Athens, Mark Richt will be right back on the hot seat. As for Auburn, we know how fast this fan base can turn on a head coach and I won’t be shocked if this team finishes 6-6 or possibly 5-7. Finally, there’s an outside shot that Steve Spurrier could retire if the Gamecocks win the SEC, as you know he’d love to go out in style like that, and, Vandy’s James Franklin could draw interest from any of the other SEC openings.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 4

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Kent State at Buffalo, 7:00 ET ESPNU
Kent State: 9-2 Under off a loss by 28+ points
Buffalo: 1-10 ATS off a home game


Thursday, September 20, 2012

BYU at Boise State, 9:00 ET ESPN
BYU: 8-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards
Boise State: 0-6 ATS at home off a win


Friday, September 21, 2012

Baylor at Louisiana Monroe, 8:00 ET ESPN
Baylor: 12-4 ATS as a favorite
LA Monroe: 10-2 Over off a SU win / ATS loss

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, September 22

12:00 PM
TEXAS EL PASO vs. WISCONSIN
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas El Paso's last 7 games on the road
Texas El Paso is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Wisconsin is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

12:00 PM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. IOWA
Central Michigan is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Central Michigan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Iowa is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Iowa is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home

12:00 PM
UAB vs. OHIO STATE
UAB is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of UAB's last 5 games
Ohio State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ohio State's last 9 games

12:00 PM
BOWLING GREEN vs. VIRGINIA TECH
Bowling Green is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Bowling Green's last 7 games on the road
Virginia Tech is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Virginia Tech is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home

12:00 PM
VIRGINIA vs. TCU
Virginia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Virginia is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

12:00 PM
MASSACHUSETTS vs. MIAMI (OHIO)
Massachusetts is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Massachusetts is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Miami (Ohio) is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Miami (Ohio) is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

12:00 PM
MISSISSIPPI vs. TULANE
Mississippi is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Mississippi is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tulane's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tulane's last 9 games

12:00 PM
MARYLAND vs. WEST VIRGINIA
Maryland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against West Virginia
Maryland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing West Virginia
West Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
West Virginia is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home

12:21 PM
KENTUCKY vs. FLORIDA
Kentucky is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Florida
Kentucky is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida
Florida is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Florida is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games

12:30 PM
ARMY vs. WAKE FOREST
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Army's last 14 games on the road
Army is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Wake Forest is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
Wake Forest is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

2:00 PM
NORFOLK ST vs. OHIO
Norfolk St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Norfolk St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Ohio is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ohio's last 7 games at home

2:00 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN
Connecticut is 5-8-3 ATS in its last 16 games
Connecticut is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Western Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

3:00 PM
MIAMI vs. GEORGIA TECH
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
Georgia Tech is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games

3:30 PM
IDAHO STATE vs. NEBRASKA
Idaho State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Idaho State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Nebraska's last 10 games
Nebraska is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games

3:30 PM
EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. MICHIGAN STATE
Eastern Michigan is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Michigan State
Eastern Michigan is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Michigan State is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Eastern Michigan

3:30 PM
MARSHALL vs. RICE
Marshall is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Marshall is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Rice's last 15 games at home
Rice is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games

3:30 PM
SOUTH DAKOTA vs. NORTHWESTERN
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Northwestern's last 5 games at home
Northwestern is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

3:30 PM
KANSAS vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Kansas is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games
Kansas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Northern Illinois is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Northern Illinois is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games

3:30 PM
MISSOURI vs. SOUTH CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Missouri's last 7 games on the road
Missouri is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
South Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
South Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

3:30 PM
VMI vs. NAVY
VMI is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
VMI is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Navy is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Navy is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games

3:30 PM
GARDNER-WEBB vs. PITTSBURGH
Gardner-Webb is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Gardner-Webb is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home

3:30 PM
EAST CAROLINA vs. NORTH CAROLINA
East Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing North Carolina
East Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing North Carolina
North Carolina is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
North Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

3:30 PM
TEMPLE vs. PENN STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Temple's last 5 games when playing on the road against Penn State
Temple is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Penn State
Penn State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Penn State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Temple

3:30 PM
OREGON STATE vs. UCLA
Oregon State is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing UCLA
Oregon State is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of UCLA's last 24 games at home
UCLA is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oregon State

4:00 PM
COLORADO vs. WASHINGTON STATE
Colorado is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Colorado is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Washington State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington State is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games

4:30 PM
SOUTH FLORIDA vs. BALL STATE
South Florida is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
South Florida is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
Ball State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ball State's last 5 games

5:00 PM
WYOMING vs. IDAHO
Wyoming is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Wyoming is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Idaho is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Idaho is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

5:00 PM
FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs. ALABAMA
Florida Atlantic is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Florida Atlantic is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Alabama's last 6 games

6:00 PM
THE CITADEL vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
The Citadel is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The Citadel is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of North Carolina State's last 10 games
North Carolina State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

6:00 PM
CALIFORNIA vs. SOUTHERN CAL
California is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
California is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Cal's last 6 games when playing at home against California
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against California

6:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. DUKE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games on the road
Memphis is 1-19 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Duke is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games at home
Duke is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games

7:00 PM
S. CAROLINA ST vs. TEXAS A&M
S. Carolina St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
S. Carolina St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Texas A&M is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Texas A&M is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:00 PM
SOUTHERN MISS vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY
Southern Miss is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Southern Miss is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Western Kentucky is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games at home
Western Kentucky is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:00 PM
TROY vs. NORTH TEXAS
Troy is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing North Texas
Troy is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
North Texas is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Troy
North Texas is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games

7:00 PM
UTAH STATE vs. COLORADO STATE
Utah State is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Utah State is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Colorado State is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
Colorado State is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home

7:00 PM
RUTGERS vs. ARKANSAS
Rutgers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Rutgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arkansas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Arkansas is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games

7:00 PM
ALCORN STATE vs. ARKANSAS STATE
Alcorn State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Alcorn State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arkansas State's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Arkansas State's last 18 games

7:00 PM
LSU vs. AUBURN
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LSU's last 12 games when playing Auburn
LSU is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Auburn
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Auburn's last 6 games when playing at home against LSU
Auburn is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games

7:00 PM
LOUISVILLE vs. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisville's last 5 games on the road
Louisville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Florida International is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Florida International is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home

7:00 PM
SOUTH ALABAMA vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
South Alabama is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Mississippi State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Mississippi State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:00 PM
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN vs. TEXAS STATE
Stephen F. Austin is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Stephen F. Austin is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Texas State is 1-15 SU in its last 16 games
Texas State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

7:00 PM
COASTAL CAROLINA vs. TOLEDO
Coastal Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Coastal Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Toledo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toledo's last 5 games at home

7:30 PM
MICHIGAN vs. NOTRE DAME
Michigan is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Michigan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Notre Dame
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Notre Dame's last 6 games when playing Michigan
Notre Dame is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Michigan

7:30 PM
AKRON vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Akron's last 6 games on the road
Akron is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

7:45 PM
VANDERBILT vs. GEORGIA
Vanderbilt is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games
Vanderbilt is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Georgia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Vanderbilt
Georgia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Vanderbilt

7:50 PM
KANSAS STATE vs. OKLAHOMA
Kansas State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas State's last 5 games when playing Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas State

8:00 PM
FRESNO STATE vs. TULSA
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Fresno State's last 14 games on the road
Fresno State is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Tulsa is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Fresno State
Tulsa is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games

8:00 PM
NEW MEXICO vs. NEW MEXICO STATE
New Mexico is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Mexico's last 5 games on the road
New Mexico State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Mexico
New Mexico State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Mexico

8:00 PM
LOUISIANA TECH vs. ILLINOIS
Louisiana Tech is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Louisiana Tech's last 9 games on the road
Illinois is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
Illinois is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games

8:00 PM
SYRACUSE vs. MINNESOTA
Syracuse is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Syracuse is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

8:00 PM
CLEMSON vs. FLORIDA STATE
Clemson is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Florida State
Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Florida State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Florida State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Clemson

8:00 PM
SAN JOSE STATE vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
San Jose State is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Diego State
San Jose State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Diego State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Jose State
San Diego State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

10:00 PM
AIR FORCE vs. UNLV
Air Force is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against UNLV
Air Force is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against UNLV
UNLV is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Air Force
The total has gone OVER in 5 of UNLV's last 6 games when playing Air Force

10:00 PM
UTAH vs. ARIZONA STATE
Utah is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Utah is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona State is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Arizona State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home

10:30 PM
NEVADA vs. HAWAII
Nevada is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Hawaii
Nevada is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Hawaii
Hawaii is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Nevada
Hawaii is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Nevada

10:30 PM
ARIZONA vs. OREGON
Arizona is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Oregon
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Oregon
Oregon is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 4

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Kent State at Buffalo, 7:00 ET ESPNU
Kent State: 9-2 Under off a loss by 28+ points
Buffalo: 1-10 ATS off a home game


Thursday, September 20, 2012

BYU at Boise State, 9:00 ET ESPN
BYU: 8-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards
Boise State: 0-6 ATS at home off a win


Friday, September 21, 2012

Baylor at Louisiana Monroe, 8:00 ET ESPN
Baylor: 12-4 ATS as a favorite
LA Monroe: 10-2 Over off a SU win / ATS loss

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Wednesday, September 19

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Kent State at Buffalo: What bettors need to know
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Kent State Golden Flashes at Buffalo Bulls (-3.5, 52)

No matter what Kent State does this season, the team will likely be remembered best for the run-back of 60 yards by Andre Parker on a fumbled punt return. The wrong way. That blunder earned the Golden Flashes some major air time and social media mentions after Week 1. They'll get a chance to be back in the spotlight in a much more desirable way when they take on Buffalo in a nationally televised contest Wednesday.

TV: ESPNU

LINE: Buffalo -3.5, O/U 52. Oddsmakers opened Buffalo as a field-goal favorite but the number has been bet up a half-point.

WEATHER: Temperatures are expected to be 50 degrees in the evening with winds of 11 mph. Showers in the morning, expected to clear.

ABOUT KENT STATE: The Flashes have only won one of their last eight road games going back to 2010. Kent State got bowled over at Kentucky, 47-14, on Sept. 8 when the Wildcats used a no-huddle offense that the Flashes couldn't adjust to. Coach Darrell Hazell spent time over the 10-day layoff working on defending the no-huddle. KSU QB Spencer Keith hasn't thrown an interception in seven games, but Keith isn’t winning games for KSU either. He had to earn the starting job this year despite being a three-year starter previously. Kent State will be without one of its top defensive players, cornerback Norman Wolfe, who is out with a broken arm.

ABOUT BUFFALO: Buffalo's offensive line returns four starters from last year, which should be the backbone of this offense. The unit showed its experience last game when the Bulls racked up over 300 yards of offense and scored a school record 56 points as an FBS team, albeit in a win over FCS Morgan State. Buffalo is capable of scoring quickly with dual-threat QB Alex Zordich and tailback Branden (Bo) Oliver. Oliver comes into this game ranking second in the country with 349 yards rushing. Defense is a different story, where the Bulls rank 110th in scoring defense and 117th defending the pass.

TRENDS:

-- Golden Flashes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in September.
-- Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
-- Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Kent State has outscored its opposition 24-0 in the first quarter through two games.

2. Kent State ranks third in the nation in two categories: kickoff returns (39.41 yard avg.) and turnover margin (+2.5).

3. Oliver and wide receiver Alex Neutz have accounted for 8 of Buffalo's 10 touchdowns so far.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Wednesday, September 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Kent State - 7:00 PM ET Buffalo -3.5 500

Buffalo - Over 52.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Clemson & Florida State In Tallahassee For Top 10 Tilt

A collision of top-10 teams is always a big deal, and it's magnified even further when that contest pits conference rivals who both bring unbeaten records into the affair.

That's the backdrop for Saturday night's huge ACC showdown in Tallahassee where the Florida State Seminoles are waiting for the Clemson Tigers. It's the ninth time a pair of Atlantic Coast squads ranked in the top 10 have met, and juicing it up even more is it will very likely decide the Atlantic Division of the conference less than a month into the 2012 college football betting campaign.

No wonder ABC wanted this for its Week 4 prime-time broadcast that begins at 8:00 p.m. (ET). The Seminoles opened as 12-point favorites, but the Don Best Pro Odds now show them as full 2-TD chalk as of midday Wednesday. Saturday's total started at 55½ before getting a boost to 57 in early wagering.

Clemson is ranked ninth and 10th by the coaches and AP polls respectively while Florida State comes in No. 4 in both. Don Best's ratings think a little more highly of the 'Noles at No. 3 in the latest Linemakers Poll, and isn't so high on the Tigers at No. 17.

Jimbo Fisher has the luxury of playing in front of the home crowd for a fourth consecutive game, and if Florida State's first three efforts at Doak Campbell Stadium are any indication, that 14-point spread should be covered before the game moves too deep into the second quarter. The Seminoles have annihilated their first three opponents by a combined 176-3 score, including last week's ACC opener against Wake Forest which marked the second consecutive shutout in a 55-0 laugher.

Granted, the first two warm-ups vs. Murray State and Savannah State were just that, warm-ups against a couple of FCS opponents. The Seminoles officially closed as 67-point favorites two weeks ago against Savannah State who was the replacement for West Virginia on this year's slate, and still almost covered that spread despite the game ending in the third quarter due to bad storms in the Tallahassee area. Most college football bettors got their money back when the game failed to at least go 55 minutes on the clock, a clock that officials ran continuously starting in the second quarter.

You can discount both of those games, but there's no overlooking what the Seminoles did to the Demon Deacons this past Saturday. It was a case of men against boys as FSU raced to a 38-zip lead at the half and rolled up more than 700 yards of all-purpose yardage against a Wake Forest squad that could muster a little more than 225, much of that coming on kickoff returns after Seminole touchdowns.

All of those stats can be thrown out the window for this week's game, however, and there's little chance FSU is thinking how easy things have been and are instead more likely to be conjuring revenge against Clemson. The Tigers scored a huge 35-30 win at home just about a year ago to really jumpstart their eventual ACC Championship, and it's a series they have owned in recent years, both on the scoreboard and at the window. Clemson is 5-2 the past seven times the teams have met, and backers have cashed six of those games. This is the biggest spread, however, since 2004 when Florida State eked out a 41-22 cover at home as 17½-point chalk. Since then, no team has been laying more than 8½.

Saturday will be Florida State's first of four high-profile opportunities to show it is a legitimate BCS title contender, and if there's a concern, it's how the Seminoles will adjust to such a huge step-up in competition. Clemson hasn't exactly faced a real tough schedule itself with a close win in Atlanta over Auburn to open the schedule followed up with a nice win over a decent Ball State team and a glorified scrimmage with Furman.

Quarterbacks Tajh Boyd for the Tigers and FSU's EJ Manuel will understandably get the bulk of the hype. Clemson wideout Sammy Watkins will also get some pub along with the backfield combo of Chris Thompson and James Wilder Jr. for the 'Noles. It's the other side of the ball on both sides that will decide it, however, and Florida State's defense is definitely the better of the two.

Sunny skies and warm temps are in the Tallahassee forecast for Saturday. Afternoon highs should reach close to 90 before dropping to around 80 for the kickoff.