The Bum's Aug-Sept College Football Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, September 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Baylor - 8:00 PM ET Baylor -7.5 500

UL Monroe - Over 70 500

[StarDust Bum]

Temple Owls Out To Break Long Drought Against Penn State

If it seems like forever since Temple (1-1) has beaten Penn State (1-2) in football...well, that’s because it has been almost forever since the Owls beat the Nittany Lions on the gridiron.

How long since the last Temple win over Penn State? How about almost a decade before even Joe Paterno arrived in State College, PA? How about almost two months before the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor?

The date was October 18, 1941, and Temple has lost 29 straight games to the Nittany Lions since. But the Owls think they might have their best chance in over 70 years to break that hex on Saturday afternoon at Beaver Stadium.

Oddsmakers, however, aren’t so sure. A check of the Don Best college football odds screen notes that Penn State is favored by 7½-8 points at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, with the early total at 42. Kickoff time has been switched to 3:30 p.m. (ET) on Saturday.

Not that the Owls haven’t come close before. Wayne Hardin’s Temple side nearly pulled a shocking upset over one of Paterno’s powerhouses back in the 1975 opener, outgaining Penn State 402-201 but being nipped at the wire by a 26-25 count. Hardin came close again in 1976 before Paterno again escaped with a one-point win, 31-30. And in the 1978 opener, a Nittany Lions team that would come within a whisker of the national championship had to struggle to overcome another scrappy Hardin Owl edition, 10-7, in the season opener.

But in recent years, Temple has not had a better chance to end the long series winless streak than it did a year ago, when a late turnover led to a Penn State TD with less than three minutes to play in a 14-10 Nittany Lions escape.

The Owls, however, believe this might be the year to finally put to the sword that long losing streak to Penn State. Of course, the upheaval over the past 10 months in State College is one factor; this isn’t the same Penn State as in past years. More on that in a moment.

But Temple has covered the last three meetings vs. the Nittany Lions and hopes to spring a trap on Saturday at Beaver Stadium. After perhaps looking ahead to this matchup before getting ambushed by Maryland 36-27 in their last game, the Owls have had two weeks to prepare for Penn State.

Mostly, Temple head coach Steve Addazio has hopefully eradicated some of the snapping issues which proved disastrous for the Owls vs. the Terps. Specifically, QB Chris Coyer was diving for too many snaps while in the shotgun formation vs. Maryland.

But Temple believes its pound the ball straight-ahead philosophy can work to some degree against the Nittany Lions. Coyer, who only passed the ball 18 times vs. Maryland, is a dangerous run threat. The Owls also hope to have starting RB “Mini” Matt Brown close to 100 percent after being slowed by an ankle injury vs. Maryland. Moreover, Boston College transfer RB Montel Harris is supposed to be ready to contribute after suffering a pulled hamstring in the opening win three weeks ago vs. Villanova.

Meanwhile, Penn State is at least back in the win column after suffering two losses to begin the season under new head coach Bill O’Brien. The Nittany Lions torpedoed Navy, 34-7, last week, although they were aided by some sloppy play from the Mids who were guilty of four turnovers. Navy actually outgained Penn State on the afternoon.

Penn State has hardly looked like a smooth-running machine in the first three weeks of the season. Sideline communication breakdowns have resulted in O’Brien being forced to burn needless timeouts in the first quarters of all three games to date. And while Penn State has jumped out quickly on foes Ohio U, Virginia and Navy, outscoring them a combined 41-6 in the first half, the Nittany Lions have been outscored 42-23 in the second halves of the first three games.

O’Brien, however, could use a bit more production from the running game (which wasn’t helped by star Silas Redd’s summer transfer to Southern Cal), and to that end hopes that RBs Bill Belton and Derek Day are back from injuries this week; the Nittany Lions ranked 102nd in national rush stats at only 102 ypg.

On the plus side, QB Matt McGloin has developed solid rapport with his receiving corps, specifically wideout Allen Robinson, already with 24 catches for 322 yards and four TDs after just three games. Redshirt frosh TE Kyle Carter has also been a pleasant surprise with 11 catches to date.

What Penn State will be aiming to do, however, is be more efficient in the red zone and not be forced to settle for field goal tries, especially after early struggles from PK Sam Ficken, whose four missed field goals proved costly in the September 8 loss at Virginia.

[StarDust Bum]

Kansas State In Norman To Battle Oklahoma Sooners

Landry Jones looks to lead OU to its sixth straight win over Kansas State.

There are about a dozen key games on the Big 12 schedule that will determine this year's eventual champion. The Oklahoma Sooners are in a good third of those contests, and the first one comes Saturday night in Norman against the Kansas State Wildcats.

FOX will televise the boot a little before eight o'clock (ET), and it's no surprise to see Oklahoma giving up 14 points on their home field. The total is 58½, and if recent history in the series between the two clubs is any indication, the Sooners might hit that number themselves. More on that in a bit.

School is officially in session for Bob Stoops' squad. The Sooners, ranked fifth and sixth by the coaches and writers, will play one of the toughest schedules in the country from here on out with five of their next 10 opponents currently ranked in the top 20 of the two mainstream polls. Oklahoma is fourth in the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll, a little more than seven points higher in those ratings than K-State down in 20th.

The Wildcats sit 13th in the coaches poll and 15th in the AP.

Stoops and OU have had two weeks to cram for this first real test on the schedule. The Sooners struggled a bit in their opener at UTEP, the final 24-7 score failing bettors who were laying nearly 30 points on Oklahoma. That was followed by a 69-13 thrashing of Florida A&M in Week 2 which was just enough to cover the gigantic 54-point spread.

Statistically, the Sooners are in fine shape with the nation's 10th-rated defense (245 ypg) and 11th-best offense (544.5 ypg). Landry Jones directs the latter with a lot of help from an offensive line that has been able to open holes for whoever is toting the pigskin. Damien Williams leads the OU infantry with over 250 yards on just 20 carries so far, finding the end zone four times against UTEP to give him five TDs among those 20 rushes.

Of course, those numbers came against the Miners and Rattlers, and Bill Snyder's Wildcats will most certainly offer up stiffer competition.

Kansas State started the season with a pair of impressive wins and covers over Missouri State and Miami (Fla), the victory against the Hurricanes easily beating the 7-point spread. Perhaps facing a letdown from the win over Miami as well as looking ahead to this game, the Wildcats were sloppy in a 35-21 victory last week vs. North Texas State that fell well short of the 27 points that oddsmakers saddled them with.

Snyder all but confirmed that after his squad needed 14 points in the fourth quarter to beat the Mean Green. "It was the attitude we took into the ballgame. There wasn't anything else to blame it on," the KSU head coach said following the contest.

No doubt Snyder put his team through attitude adjustment drills during practices this week.

K-State has some offensive weapons of its own, led by dual-threat QB Collin Klein who has completed nearly 73 percent of his passes for more than 10 yards per attempt, five of the completions going for scores. The senior is also second on the team in rushing with 210 yards, finding the end zone on four of his carries.

Oklahoma has won the last five clashes in this series and owns a very one-sided 71-17-4 advantage over the years. The two teams were ranked in the top 10 a year ago when they met in Manhattan, and the Sooners dominated that game with a 58-17 beat-down, the second time in three meetings that OU reached the 58-point mark.

That whipping in 2011 was out of character for the Wildcats who stood 4-3 straight up vs. Oklahoma when both schools were ranked. Kansas State has covered four of the last seven overall, and the last four have all gone 'over' the total.

It should be a nice, clear evening for the 85,000 or so who file into Memorial Stadium. Temps should drop through the 70s and into the 60s as the game progresses with a light NE breeze.

[StarDust Bum]

Arizona, Oregon Clash In Exciting Pac-12 Matchup

How good might the Oregon Ducks (3-0, No. 5 in the latest Don Best Linemakers poll) really be? And are the Arizona Wildcats (3-0) as good as they have looked in the first three weeks of the college football season?

Whatever, we’re going to find out a lot more about each of these Pac-12 entries when they get together on Saturday night at Autzen Stadium in Eugene.

A quick check of the Don Best college football odds screen notes that the host Ducks have been posted as a substantial 21 ½ - 22 ½ -point favorite at the majority of Las Vegas sportsbooks, with the ‘total’ hovering way up in the stratosphere between 78 and 79 at most Nevada wagering outlets as of late in the week.

Kickoff time in Eugene has been moved back to 10:30 p.m. (ET) in order for ESPN to make it the featured late-night Saturday TV telecast.

Pointspread-wise, we must acknowledge that hefty price and note that Oregon has failed to cover each of its first three games this season while laying even-bigger numbers against Arkansas State, Fresno State, and Tennessee Tech. In fact, the Ducks are now 0-7-1 vs. the number in their last eight tries as double-digit chalk at Autzen Stadium.

We suggest, however, putting an asterisk in front of that subpar spread mark, especially in regard to the first three games this season when HC Chip Kelly called off the dogs (er, Ducks) before halftime in each of the games as his Oregon side had run up huge advantages before halftime each week.

In the Arkansas State and Fresno contests in particular, the Ducks effectively played 25-minute games before Kelly began to substitute freely. Oregon had scored 50 points before the second quarter was halfway complete against Arkansas State before Kelly graciously took his foot off the gas pedal. Similarly, the Ducks were cruising by a 35-6 count at halftime vs. Fresno before downshifting in the second half.

There’s no telling how much Oregon could have scored in those games, as well as last week vs. Tennessee Tech, had Kelly been so inclined. We’ll see if he shows similar mercy if given the opportunity this week against Arizona.

The Ducks have been playing video game football thus far, accumulating 594 yards per game (ranks 7th nationally) and scoring 54 ppg (ranking 5th nationally) despite going at half-speed for much of the first three games. Explosive soph RB De’Anthony Thomas is a prime example of Oregon’s early season fireworks, gaining an astounding 17.5 yards per carry but only with 13 totes in the first three games as Kelly, as mentioned, has subbed liberally. Fellow RB Kenjon Barner, at “only” 5.8 ypc, leads Oregon rushers with 324 yards (and 6 rush TDs) in the first three weeks.

Barner and Thomas have already combined for 13 touchdowns, the most among any RB combo in the country.

Kelly is also about ready to take the shackles of RS frosh QB Marcus Mariota, who beat out holdover Bryan Bennett for the first-sting job and has completed better than 75% of his passes with 8 TDs and just one pick in the first three weeks. Good news for Mariota is that top wideout Josh Huff is due back in the lineup on Saturday after missing the Tennessee Tech game with a sore knee.

Oregon’s machine-gun like pace was expected to produce big offensive numbers, but where the Ducks must improve from last season if they wish to get back to the BCS is on the stop unit, where prior to the season vet d.c. Nick Aliotti believed he might have had his best Webfoot platoon since the famed “Gang Green” defense of the 1994 Rose Bowl team in Aliotti’s first tour of duty (under Rich Brooks) in Eugene. Again, early evidence is sketchy because of the mass substitutions employed by coaching staff as the Ducks raced to those huge leads against their first three foes.

Of course, there is plenty of intrigue surrounding visiting Arizona and its apparent arrival under new HC Rich Rodriguez, like Oregon’s Kelly a spread option devotee. The Wildcats, 4-8 under Mike Stoops and Tim Kish last year, qualify as one of the surprise packages of the season to date with their 3-0 mark and ascension back into the national rankings (22nd).

Rodriguez served notice in Week Two when his Wildcats avenged losses to Oklahoma State the past two seasons with a 59-38 blowout payback win on September 8 in Tucson. Which also confirmed Rodriguez’ earlier statements (as early as last spring, to anyone who would listen) that sr. QB Matt Scott could be the best-ever that Rodriguez has used at the position in his several years at a variety of major-college stops including Tulane, Clemson, West Virginia, and Michigan (the latter two jobs as head coach).

Scott’s early numbers suggest as much as he has completed almost 72% of his passes with 7 TDs and just one pick while running for another 190 yards. Meanwhile, RB Ka’Deem Carey has emerged as a coast-to-coast threat (344 YR and 5.8 ypc, including a 73-yard TD run) while Scott has a plethora of receiving options led by wideouts such as former Texas transfer Dan Buckner (22 catches already) and Austin Hill (17 catches at better than 18 yards per receptions).

Rodriguez has succeeded in increasing the tempo of the Arizona offense, which has run a whopping 280 plays out of its no-huddle in the first three games. Only Marshall (292) has run more plays. It also hasn’t taken a veteran OL (with all five returning starters) to get the hang of the different blocking schemes require din the Rodriguez spread option.

The Cats, however, will need to see if their defense can pass the test on Saturday. The jury is still out on the stop unit after Ok State ripped through it for 636 yards two weeks ago, only for the Cowboys to become unstuck by 15 penalties and four turnovers (including three picks by true frosh QB Wes Lunt). Arizona might not be able to count upon similar generosity from the Ducks.

The Cats have not beaten Oregon straight up since 2007 but have covered the spread in five of the last seven meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Report - Week 4

September 21, 2012

Saturday - Oregon State at UCLA (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

Oregon State was scheduled to have just two games to this point, but one of them was wiped out when Nicholls State, their opening game FCS opponent, could not make it from Louisiana thanks to Hurricane Isaac. So the Beavers have just one game, a big win over Wisconsin, under their belts, while UCLA has three. That could be looked at one of two ways. The Beavers are fresh and healthy, while the Bruins have some nicks, bumps and bruises. Or, the Bruins have valuable experience, while the Beavers are still prone to early-game mistakes. More importantly, the Beavers are just 1-8 ATS in the past nine matchups, and the Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their past five home games. The Beavers covered their last time out, but are 1-4-1 ATS in their past six games after an ATS win in their previous game. All signs appear to point to UCLA, who is just a seven- or eight-point favorite depending on your book. Of course, you'll have to ignore that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in the series.

Saturday - Arizona at Oregon (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

Do you have the nerve to take the over (o/u - 78.5)? Oregon can rack up points very quickly, but Arizona isn't Arkansas State, Tennessee Tech or even Fresno State. The Wildcats actually held a high-powered Oklahoma State offense to 38 points, which was pretty respectable. Oh yeah, they won that game, too, in convincing fashion. The Wildcats are certainly no slouch, although they come into the game as a three-touchdown dog. They have covered their past two games after a sluggish opener against Toledo. Will we get the Wildcats team that covered a double-digit number at home against OK State, or the one which failed to cover as a double-digit fave against Toledo? Well, believe it or not, Arizona actually has averaged more yards per game (604.7) than Oregon in the early going (596.3). I hope the scoreboard operator at Autzen Stadium pounds down a Monster and pops a Five-Hour Energy or two.

Saturday - California at Southern California (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

The Golden Bears enter this game after a near-miss in the Horseshoe last weekend, falling 35-28 at Ohio State. This week, they enter as an identical 17-point dog, although circumstances are certainly different. Ohio State was not nearly as salty as USC is going to be after suffering a setback at Stanford last week. The cover for Cal last weekend was their first in three games. Last season's game in the Coliseum resulted in a 30-9 Trojans victory. If that score came through, the Trojans would cover. That would be cause for bettors to have a parade, as USC is 0-3 ATS so far this season. Cal is 4-0 ATS in their past four Pac-12 games, although they are just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 road contests. However, they did cover the number on the road last week, as mentioned. USC is 4-1 ATS in their past five conference contests, but last week's setback is that loss. Looking at recent trends, one might lean slightly toward Cal. The Golden Bears are 6-2 ATS in their past eight trips to SoCal, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. However, California is just 1-6 ATS in the past seven meetings overall. The better play might be under, which has cashed seven times in the past eight games in the series. In addition, the under is 7-2 for Cal in their past nine Pac-12 games, and 9-3 in their past 12 overall. For USC, the under is 14-5-1 in their past 20 home games against team's with losing records. The under is 2-1 for USC so far this season, including last week.

Saturday - Utah at Arizona State (Pac-12 Network, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

Utah has been a difficult team to figure. They pounded Northern Colorado in their opener, as they should. Then, they not only lost at rival Utah State, but they also saw QB Jordan Wynn suffer a career-ending shoulder injury. In stepped senior Jon Hays, and the Utes pulled off a dramatic win against their other in-state rival, Brigham Young. The BYU game was the only one Utah has covered to date. AZ State is coming off a bitter road loss at Missouri, losing 24-20. For bettors, they likely pushed, or suffered a gut-wrenching loss with a +3.5 number. Picking AZ State this week might be a tough pill to swallow. However, they covered their first two games rather handily. Know this, though. The Sun Devils are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight games, and 0-4 ATS in their past four Pac-12 games. Utah isn't much better, going 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games against teams with a winning record.

Saturday - Colorado at Washington State (FX, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game

Colorado hasn't just been bad to start this season, they have been heinous. When they lost to Colorado State, it was excusable since that is an in-state rivalry game. However, they allowed FCS foe Sacramento State to roll into Boulder and win 30-28, and then they had Fresno State hang 69 points on them last weekend. The Buffs are looking for something, anything, to go right this weekend. They might have the only conference opponent they can handle, and even that is debatable. Head coach Mike Leach's offense finally appeared to awaken from their slumber last Friday at UNLV, scoring a 35-27 win. WaZu is 0-2-1 ATS through their first three games, so a 20-point number looks pretty tough to cover. However, Colorado is 0-3 ATS. The teams met on the Palouse last season, with State coming up with a 31-27 win.

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Report - Week 4

September 21, 2012

There's one marquee matchup again this week in the Big Ten. And again it features a Michigan team facing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Irish embarrassed Michigan State in East Lansing last week. This time it's the Wolverines traveling to South Bend to try and get a win against the Golden Domers. Full analysis of that game and the rest of the Big Ten schedule inside…

Michigan (+5.5) at Notre Dame - (NBC, 7:30 p.m. ET)
UM: Last week vs. UMass: W 63-13
ND: Last week at Michigan State: W 20-3

This is the headliner of the week in the Big Ten and Michigan could use a win to give the conference back some pride after the Irish smoked Michigan State last week and Purdue earlier this season. The Wolverines are off of a blowout win over UMass. The Wolves dominated that game to the tune of 585 yards and 63 points with eight different players scoring a touchdown. Before beating a hapless FCS UMass, Michigan lost its only road game at Alabama and looked shaky at home against Air Force. A strong showing here would put the Wolverines back on the national map.

The defense shined as the offense continued to sputter in Notre Dame's big win over Michigan State last week. The Irish held Michigan State to just 237 total yards, 15 first downs, and 3 points last week. They never allowed MSU's rushing attack gain legs as the Spartans rushed for just 50 yards on 25 carries. Offensively QB Everett Golson struggled and was just 14-of-32 for 128 yards and one touchdown and the Irish were just 1-for-14 on third downs. RB Cierre Wood returned from suspension to rush for 56 yards on 10 carries.

Michigan has beaten Notre Dame three consecutive years and five of the last six overall. QB Denard Robinson has had two huge games against the Irish. Robinson has 582 pass yards and five touchdowns and 366 rush yards and three touchdowns in two career starts against the Golden Domers (both victories).

Including last season, seven of the last eight meetings have been straight-up wins by the underdog. Michigan is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog.

Minnesota (-1) vs. Syracuse - (Big Ten Network, 8:00 p.m. ET)
UM: Last week vs. Western Michigan: W 28-23
SU: Last week vs. FCS Stony Brook: W 28-17

The Gophers will try to go 4-0 for the first time since 2008 but will have to do so without injured QB MarQueis Gray (suffered a high ankle sprain against Western Michigan last week and is expected to miss 2-4 weeks). Gray has had seven of Minnesota's 13 touchdowns so far this season. QB Max Shortell played well relieving Gray on Saturday. He threw for 188 yards and 3 touchdowns against Western Michigan. The sophomore is much more of a pocket-passer and doesn't bring the same kind of threat with his legs that Gray does, but Syracuse has allowed 10 touchdown passes through three games, so Shortell could have a big day. Defensively the Gophers will face their toughest test of the season thus far against Syracuse.

The Orange are 1-2 but played Northwestern close and hung with USC. On the offensive side, QB Ryan Nassib has looked great as he has tossed nine touchdowns and just three interceptions and is averaging 376 passing yards per game (5th nationally). Syracuse has allowed an average of 200 rush yards per game through three games so expect the Gophers to run it early and often to keep Nassib off the field.

Minnesota won at Syracuse in 2009 in overtime. This is only the third non Big Ten BCS opponent that Minnesota has faced at home since 1998 (Lost to USC in 2010 and to California in 2009). Syracuse is 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS in its last 12 road openers.

Penn State (-7.5) vs. Temple - (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
PSU: Last week vs. Navy: W 34-7
TU: Last week: BYE

The Nittany Lions finally got a win last week against Navy after losing to Ohio and Virginia. They'll try and use that momentum to avoid losing to Temple for the first time since 1941. Offensively they put up 34 points against Navy after scoring just 30 total in the previous two weeks combined. PSU still ranks 107th in rush offense and 101st in total offense. It's the defense that's keeping this team afloat. They are bending a little bit (68th in rush yards allowed and 69th in total yards allowed) but not breaking (28th in points allowed).

Temple didn't inspire a whole lot of confidence in losing to Maryland last week. The Owls gained just 230 yards and tallied 9 first downs against the Terrapins. QB Coyer has completed just 12-of-29 passes so far this season (41%) and this offense ranks 114th in total yards through two games. Temple has been a thorn in PSU's side the past two seasons, however. The Owls led 13-12 into the 2nd half the last time in State College and they led 13-9 last season against the Nittany Lions. Temple lost both games outright but covered each.

Temple has covered three straight against PSU. Penn State is 1-7 ATS its last eight home games as a seven-point or more favorite against non-Big Ten squads.

Injury update: Running backs Derek Day (shoulder) and Bill Belton (ankle) are both day-to-day for the Temple game, with Day having a better chance to return than Belton, coach Bill O'Brien said. Left tackle Donovan Smith (ankle) also is day-to-day after missing the Navy game.

Illinois (-2.5) vs. Louisiana Tech - (Big Ten Network, 8:00 p.m. ET)
UI: Last week vs. FCS Charleston Southern: W 44-0
LT: Last week vs. Rice: W 56-37

Illinois has looked good on its home field and not good in its only trip away from Champaign. Saturday's win against Charleston Southern showed very little about the Illini. They won 44-0 and allowed just nine first downs and 125 total yards to its hapless FCS foe. QB Reilly O'Toole tossed for five touchdowns as regular starting QB Scheelhaase continued to sit out with an ankle injury. Scheelhaase could be back for this one, but his status is still uncertain. Either way, defending WAC Champion Louisiana Tech will not be an easy win for Illinois.

Louisiana Tech's opener against Texas A&M was cancelled due to hurricane Isaac. Since then the Bulldogs have scored 56 points apiece in wins against Houston and Rice. QB Colby Cameron (7 touchdowns, 0 interceptions) leads an offense that ranks 9th in rushing, 16th in passing, 3rd in points, and 5th overall. The big problem with LA Tech is its defense. They allowed 49 points at Houston and 37 against Rice. This unit ranks 124th in total defense and 121st in scoring defense.

LA Tech is 1-10 SU in its last 10 road games visiting BCS-schools but 3-1 ATS in its last four. Illinois is 11-3 SU but just 3-11 ATS its last 14 home games against non-BCS schools.

Wisconsin (-17.5) vs. UTEP - (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
UW: Last week vs. Utah State: W 16-14
UTEP: Last week vs. New Mexico State: W 41-28

Who would've thought that three games into the season UTEP would have a better scoring offense than Wisconsin? We didn't. UTEP is ranked 106th in scoring offense. Wisconsin is ranked 113th. Wisconsin has played so poorly this season that no game is safe at this point. The Miners gave Oklahoma a minor scare in Week one and we wouldn't be surprised if they did the same to the Badgers here. Utah State outgained the Badgers and missed a field goal late in the 4th quarter that would've given Wisco its 2nd loss of the season. The Badgers are likely making the switch at QB from Danny O'Brien to redshirt freshman Joel Stave. Stave played in the 2nd half last week and completed 2-of-6 passes for 15 yards.

As we said above, the Miners put a scare into Oklahoma in week one and did the same to Mississippi in week two (both losses) before notching their first win against New Mexico State last week. A win over NM State is nothing to write home about, but it was a start. QB Nick Lamaison tossed for 300 yards and four touchdowns and UTEP tallied 177 rush yards.

Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS this season, and 3-7 ATS its last 10 in home games against non-conference opponents. UTEP is 14-6 ATS its last 20 games as an underdog of 17 or more.

Iowa (-15.5) vs. Central Michigan - (Big Ten Network, 12:00 p.m. ET)
UI: Last week vs. FCS Northern Iowa: W 27-16
CMU: Last week: BYE

Iowa found a little bit of an offensive rhythm against Northern Iowa last week and should not have much trouble if it can keep that up. RB Mark Wiesman rushed for 113 yards and 3 touchdowns and this offense totaled 429 total yards in the 11-point victory. The strong suit of this team continues to be its defense. They rank 24th in total defense and 18th in scoring defense. They haven't allowed more than 17 points in any of their three games so far.

The Chippewas got drilled at home by fellow Big Ten member Michigan State two weeks ago and had an off week last week. The Spartans put up 495 yards and 41 points while holding CMU to just 245 yards and 7 points. MSU appears to be better than Iowa at this point in the season so take those stats with a grain of salt. Still, if Iowa can get its rushing attack going against this CMU defense that has allowed 181 per game, the Hawkeyes should win comfortably.

Iowa is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 home games as a 14-point favorite against non-BCS schools. Central Michigan is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against Big Ten squads.

Injury update: RB Damon Bullock (head) is doubtful and RB Greg Garmon (elbow) is questionable for Saturday. Coach Kirk Ferentz said Mark Weisman will start for Iowa following his three-touchdown performance.

Ohio State (-36.5) vs. UAB - (Big Ten Network, 12:00 p.m. ET)
OSU: Last week vs. California: W 35-28
UAB: Last week at South Carolina: L 6-49

This should be an easy "tune-up" victory for the Buckeyes before their showdown at Michigan State next Saturday. For the 2nd straight week, the Buckeyes had troubles scoring in the 2nd half. It took two touchdowns in the 4th quarter to put away a pesky California team away after Central Florida gave them a scare two weeks ago. QB Miller continues to impress in Urban Meyer's spread scheme. He has 611 pass yards and 377 rush yards and 12 total touchdowns. He and this offense should have no problem putting up points against UAB.

The Blazers have been outscored 88-35 in their first two games, losses to Troy and South Carolina. UAB ranks 108th in yards against and 123rd in points allowed. Offensively this team was completely shutdown by South Carolina. The Blazers had 27 rush yards on 42 carries and most of the 265 total yards came in garbage time during the blowout. OSU allowed over 500 yards to the Cal Bears, but that won't happen here.

Ohio State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a 30-point favorite or more. UAB is 0-14 SU (7-7 ATS) on the road against BCS-schools - losing by an average of 23 points per game.

Michigan State (-33) vs. Eastern Michigan - (Big Ten Network, 3:30 p.m. ET)
MSU: Last week vs. Notre Dame: L 3-20
EMU: Last week at Purdue: L 16-54

Expect a fired up Spartans squad for this game after the home loss to Notre Dame a week ago. Notre Dame held MSU to just 237 total yards, including 50 yards on 25 carries. It was the first time Michigan State had been held touchdown-less at home since 1991. The defense was solid again, only allowed 300 total yards and 20 points, but deficiencies on offense cost the Spartans last week. Eastern Michigan ranks dead last nationally in rush-defense (312 rush YPG allowed), so expect the Spartans to have a big game on the ground behind Le'Veon Bell.

EMU lost last week to fellow Big Ten Purdue 54-16. The Eagles were beaten in the first two weeks by Ball State and FCS Illinois State. They've been bad all around. They rank 111th in total offense and 119th in total defense and they have more turnovers than touchdowns this season. They are 0-5 SU & ATS in the last five games against Michigan State and have lost each by an average of 41 points per game (none by fewer than 32 points).

Michigan State is 8-1 ATS its last nine non-conference home games as a 20-point favorite or more.

Nebraska (NL) vs. FCS Idaho State - (Big Ten Network, 3:30 p.m. ET)
UN: Last week vs. Arkansas State: W 42-13

Nebraska bounced back after its loss to UCLA to beat Arkansas State handily last week. The Huskers gained 527 total yards, 347 of them coming on the ground. They've looked very good against weak competition but struggled against their only big-name opponent so far. Expect another big win over FCS Idaho State in this "tune-up" before Big Ten play begins.

Northwestern (NL) vs. FCS South Dakota - (Big Ten Network, 3:30 p.m. ET)
NU: Last week vs. Boston College: W 22-13

After improving to 3-0 against three straight BCS teams, the Wildcats get a bit of a break here and should improve to 4-0. Offensively the Wildcats put up 560 total yards, rushed for 293, completed 30-of-40 passes, and totaled 34 first downs - but that only translated into 22 total points. Still, it was a promising win over Boston College as they played stout defense for the 2nd consecutive week, only allowing 13 points. South Dakota did pull an upset at Minnesota two years ago, but the Coyotes lost to Maine in their season opener.

Bye: Indiana
IU: Last week vs. Ball State: L 39-41

The Hoosiers lost their first game last week at home against Ball State. BSU kicked a 42-yard field goal as time expired and won the game by two points. Starting quarterback Cameron Coffman left last week's loss with a hip pointer, and third string QB Nate Sudfeld entered the game and performed well. Coach Kevin Wilson said Coffman remains the starter, at least right now. IU's defense still isn't up to snuff. The Hoosiers allowed 440 yards and 41 points without recording a turnover against Ball State. That can't happen if Indiana wants to win a few Big Ten games.

Bye: Purdue
PU: Last week vs. Eastern Michigan: W 54-16

So far Danny Hope's squad looks like the best postseason-eligible team in the wide-open Leaders Division (Ohio State ineligible). Purdue definitely has the defense to go a long way this season as the Boilers rank 22nd in total defense and 19th in points against. If they can get solid quarterback play going forward, this will be a dangerous team.

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Report - Week 4

September 20, 2012


Saturday - Clemson at Florida State (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

The Florida State Seminoles played nobody in the first two weeks. Everyone said that Wake Forest, their first FBS opponent of the season, would give them a much better game. Well, FSU went on to roll Wake 52-0, taking care of the over by themselves, by the way. After that, well, everyone is saying it was just Wake. Wait until Clemson comes to town, with their vaunted offense, led by QB Tajh Boyd, RB Andre Ellington, WR Sammy Watkins and WR DeAndre Hopkins. I tend to believe that, too. I think Clemson will be able to score much more than FSU has been allowing on defense. By the way, FSU has pitched back-to-back shutouts, and they are allowing 1.0 ppg through their first three scrimmages. These Tigers are coming to play. The public has been generally split on the 14.5-point spread, and rightly so. FSU clobbered a four-TD dog last weekend, and Clemson is 1-2 ATS this season. However, this is prime time, and when Clemson was in the national spotlight last time against Auburn in Atlanta, they shined in a 26-19 win. Of course, looking back, was that as impressive as it seemed at the time? Hmm.

Saturday - Miami (Fla.) at Georgia Tech (ESPN3/GamePlan, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

Check out Ga. Tech getting love from Vegas after flattening Virginia last weekend. The 14-point number also might have something to do with UM going out to Manhattan, Kansas a couple of weeks ago and getting steamrolled by K-State. Still, both teams find themselves at 2-1, and the Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their past six road games, save for that Kansas State debacle. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are 1-4-1 ATS in their past six games following a straight-up win. So it appears the scales are tipped in the favor of bettors taking the Canes. Well, as ESPN's Lee Corso says, "not so fast, my friend." The favorite is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. This is a confusing game for those looking at the total, too. The under has cashed in four of the past five meetings in the series. However, the under is just 1-9 in Ga. Tech's past 10 games in the month of September, and 2-5 in Miami's past seven road trips. This one screams, stay away! It should be a good game, however.

Saturday - East Carolina at North Carolina (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

I live in the state of North Carolina, and you would think that there would be a lot of pre-game hype leading up to this one. Two in-state rivals clashing on the gridiron, separated by roughly 100 miles or so. However, they are having some down times at ECU, and UNC is coming off a pair of disappointing defeats, albeit in different ways getting there. The number stands at, or around, 17 points, which might be a bit much considering how Carolina's defense has played lately. However, the Pirates are a perfect, or imperfect, 0-5 ATS in their past five meetings with their big brother from Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their past four meetings against Conference USA foes, and UNC boss Larry Fedora knows ol' Ruffin McNeill and the Pirates well from his days in C-USA with the Southern Miss Golden Eagles. The last nugget, the Pirates are 2-8 ATS against the ACC in their past 10 meetings. If I were to lean one way, I'd take Carolina. However, it would really be nice to know whether or not RB Giovani Bernard is playing first. He has missed the past two games due to injury.

Saturday - Virginia at Texas Christian (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

After being demolished in Atlanta last weekend, the Virginia Cavaliers step back out of conference to take on a Top 20 opponent in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs were methodical, yet not that impressive, in taking down Kansas in their first Big 12 conference game last weekend in Lawrence. An 18-point line seems a bit much based on what we saw from TCU's offense last weekend. Then again, from what we saw from UVA last week, it might very well be warranted. The Froggies are 0-4 ATS in their past four meetings at home against team's with winning records, although UVA is 0-5-1 ATS in their past six non-conference games, and 0-4-1 ATS in their past five games overall. The under (o/u - 54) might be the astute play here. First off, it will kick at 11 am local time. There very well could be a sluggish start by both sides. The under is also 12-2 in Virginia's past 14 games on grass.

Saturday - Memphis at Duke (ESPN3, 6:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game

Let's give the Dukies of the gridiron some love, shall we? They opened with a solid offensive effort against FIU, but then were torched by QB Josh Nunes and Stanford in Week 2. However, after the Cardinal took down USC last weekend, that isn't looking so bad for the Blue Devils. They came home and handily took care of cross-town rival North Carolina Central, 54-17. In fact, in two games at Wallace Wade Stadium this season, Duke has averaged 50.0 ppg. Memphis opened with a home loss to FCS opponent Tennessee-Martin, and they have dropped games against Sun Belt foes Middle Tennessee and Arkansas State. The Tigers are 1-2 ATS, and things are in total disarray overall. It's odd to see Duke favored, let alone by so much, but the way QB Sean Renfree and WR Conner Vernon have been clicking on offense, that line is awfully tempting.

Other Games to Watch
Matchup Notes

Wake Forest has been extremely hard to figure this season. They barely scraped by Liberty in their opener, they pulled a surprise against UNC despite being a double-digit dog, and then they were thoroughly embarrassed in Tallahassee last weekend. Who is going to show up? Well, the homestanding Deacs are favored by just 7 points, and perhaps 6.5 depending on your book. That makes Wake an interesting play. While the Black Knights are 3-1-1 in their past five games agianst ACC opponents, they are 5-11 ATS in their past 16 meetings against a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, Wake is 4-1 ATS in their past five against team's with a losing record.

Matchup Notes

This used to be an entertaining matchup back in the day. Now, Maryland is a doormat, and West Virginia is high-flying. The Terps haven't had a lot of success in College Park, but they are really bad on the road lately. Maryland is 1-4 ATS in their past five road trips, 1-5 ATS in their past six non-conference games, and 2-12 ATS in their past 14 games overall. In addition, they are 0-9 ATS in their past nine games following a straight-up loss. Meanwhile, Maryland does have a winning record, and West Virginia is 12-5 ATS in their past 17 meetings with a team with a winning record. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series, and Maryland is 0-5 ATS in their past five shots against West Virginia. In addition, they are 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Morgantown. The over looks like the play with more overwhelming evidence. The over is 7-1 ATS in Maryland's past eight games overall, and 4-1 in their past five road trips. For West Virginia, the over has cashed in six of its past seven home games, and it has hit in four of the past five meetings between these two sides.

[StarDust Bum]

Clemson at FSU

September 21, 2012


Haven’t we seen this script written before? It usually goes something like this: Florida State is unbeaten into late September, catapulting into the Top 10 of the national rankings and pundits galore declare the Seminoles as being ‘back.’

On the Tim Brando Show earlier this week, FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher was asked what exactly does ‘being back’ mean, anyway? Fisher replied to Brando, “I have no idea.”

Well, if Jimbo needs a history lesson, we’re honored to provide one. Once upon a time, Bobby Bowden led the Seminoles to a pair of national championships and 14 consecutive top-five finishes.

Since then, however, FSU has lost at least three games for 11 straight seasons and it had four or more losses in 10 of those 11 years.

Nevertheless, the oddsmakers in Nevada are bullish on the ‘Noles, who were 14 ½-point favorites over Clemson at most spots as of Friday afternoon. The total for ‘over/under’ wagers was 56. Gamblers can take the Tigers on the money line for a generous plus-450 return (risk $100 to win $450).

FSU (3-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) beat up on a pair of FCS foes before opening its ACC slate with a 52-0 clubbing of Wake Forest as a 28-point home ‘chalk’ last Saturday. E.J. Manuel threw a pair of touchdowns passes without being intercepted and also rushed for a 16-yard score. Chris Thompson produced 197 rushing yards and two TDs on only nine carries.

For the season, Manuel is completing 71.2 percent of his throws and has six TD passes compared to just one interception. Thompson is averaging an incredible 14.1 yards per carry, while James Wilder Jr. has four rushing TDs and a 6.9 YPC average.

The ‘Noles have outscored their three foes by a combined score of 176-3.

Clemson (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) has dominated FSU in recent years, winning outright in five of the last seven head-to-head meetings while going 6-1 ATS. The Tigers collected a 35-30 win as 2 ½-point home favorites last season.

Tajh Boyd torched the FSU defense for 344 passing yards and three TDs without a pick. Sammy Watkins had seven receptions for 141 yards and two TDs.

Dabo Swinney’s team has wins over Auburn (26-19), Ball St. (52-27) and Furman (41-7) on its resume. The Tigers took down AU without the services of Watkins, who was suspended for the first two games of the year.

In his season debut last week, Watkins had four catches for 52 yards and a 58-yard TD run against the Paladins. For the year, Boyd has connected on 63-of-86 passes (73.3%) for 747 yards with a 6/1 TD-INT ratio. Senior RB Andre Ellington has rushed for 331 yards and four TDs, averaging 6.1 YPC.

During Swinney’s five-year tenure, Clemson has compiled a 5-2 spread record as a road underdog. Meanwhile, FSU owns an 8-6 ATS mark as a home favorite under Fisher.

The ‘over’ is 6-2 in the last eight encounters between these ACC adversaries.

ABC will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--When these squads met at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee two years ago, FSU won by a 16-13 count but the Tigers took the money as 6 ½-point underdogs.

--Because the rest of the ACC Atlantic looks extremely soft, this game has a Tennessee-Florida (circa 1990s) type feel to it. In other words, the loop will likely be decided Saturday night, as the Clemson-FSU winner will obviously have the inside track to get to the ACC title game.

--LSU owns a 12-7-2 ATS record as a road favorite during Les Miles’s eight-year tenure. The Bayou Bengals are enormous 21-point favorites Saturday at Auburn.

--Auburn owns a 4-1 spread record in five games as a home underdog on Gene Chizik’s watch.

--Kentucky is 2-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog under Joker Phillips. The ‘Cats are catching 24 points Saturday at Florida, which has beaten UK in 25 straight head-to-head meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB | ARIZONA at OREGON
Play On - Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OREGON) with an incredible offense - averaging 450 or more total yards/game, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CFB | UTAH at ARIZONA ST
Play Against - A road team vs. the money line (UTAH) after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse
57-30 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.5% | 0.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CFB | CLEMSON at FLORIDA ST
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (CLEMSON) after scoring 37 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games
89-45 over the last 10 seasons. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

[StarDust Bum]

College football betting weather watch: Week 4

Weather has certainly played a factor in the first three weeks of the college football season and will continue to do so in Week 4.

Here are a few key matchups that are being threatened by inclement weather Saturday:

Maryland at West Virginia (-25.5, 59.5)

Site: Mountaineer Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s and a 35 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the south.

UTEP at Wisconsin (-18, 51)

Site: Camp Randall Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s and a 50 percent chance of showers. Winds will out of the north at 11 mph.

Eastern Michigan at Michigan State (-31, 49)

Site: Spartan Stadium

Temperatures are expected to dip into the low-50s and there's an 80 percent chance of precipitation at game time. Winds will be light out of the north.

Gardner-Webb at Pittsburgh Odds N/A

Site: Heinz Field

Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-60s and there’s a 50 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the west.

Louisville at FIU (13.5, 53)

Site: FIU Stadium

It will be hot and humid today in the Miami area with temperatures expected to soar into the mid-80s. With that comes an 80 percent chance of a thundershower. Winds will be light out of the north.

Temple at Penn State (-7.5, 43)

Site: Beaver Stadium

Temperatures should reach the mid-60s by kickoff with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be relatively calm out of the south.

Michigan at Notre Dame (-5, 49.5)

Site: Notre Dame Stadium

Expect wet and windy conditions for this clash between two, top-20 schools. Temperatures will be in the low-50s and there’s a 70 percent chance of precipitation throughout the evening hours. Winds will be out of the west at 15 mph.

Vanderbilt at Georgia (-15, 50.5)

Site: Sanford Stadium

Weather models suggest temperatures will be in the mid-70s with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind shouldn't be a factor.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Saturday's games
Top games
Home side won last five Clemson-Florida State games, with favorites covering three of last four; Tigers lost five of last six visits to Florida State, with five of six losses by 14+ points (lost 16-13/41-27 last two times here). Clemson is 5-2 as road dog under Swinney; they ran ball for 320 yards in 26-19 win over Auburn, only good team they’ve played this year, which is one more than Florida State has played. Seminoles are 13-8 as favorite under Fisher, 8-6 at home; they crushed first three cupcakes they played by combined score of 176-3, but two were I-AA teams, and FSU had revenge motive against Wake (had lost four of previous six to Deacons).

Georgia won 14 of last 15 games with Vanderbilt, winning last five (2-3 vs spread), with only two of five by more than 10 points. Improved Vandy lost six of last seven visits here but went 4-3 vs spread in those games; they outrushed Georgia 199-117 in LY’s 33-28 (+11) home loss, but used different QB in last week’s I-AA walkover, benching returning starter Rodgers (Aaron’s brother), after he completed 30-56 passes in opening losses to South Carolina/Northwestern. Vandy is 2-6 as road underdog last 2+ years. Dawgs are 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorite, 0-2 this year (won 45-23/56-20 over stiffs)- they play Tennessee/South Carolina next two weeks, better not look ahead.

First road game for RichRod’s Arizona squad that hammered Oklahoma State 59-38 at home two weeks ago; Wildcats lost last four games with Oregon by average score of 51-36, so total of 77 seems reachable. Underdogs are 4-2-1 vs spread in last seven series games, but 1-3-1 in last five played here. Oregon has run ball for average of 329 yards/game in first three wins. Arizona was 4-6-2 as road dog last four years under Stoops; Ducks are 11-8-1 as home favorites under Kelly, 0-2 this year (won 57-34/42-25 over lesser foes, taking foot off gas in second half). Scary thing about Oregon is they start a redshirt freshman QB and three sophs on offensive line.

UCLA is vastly improved under former NFL coach Mora, averaging 622 yards, 41 ppg in 3-0 start, including 36-30 upset of Nebraska; Bruins won seven of last nine games with Oregon State, but weird thing is, this is first time in last four meetings here they’ve been favored over State (dogs covered nine of last 12 series games, four of six here). Beavers are usually slow starters, but they upset Wisconsin 10-7 at home two weeks ago, in their only game so far this year (opener was ppd, had bye last week). Since 2004, Bruins are 19-10 vs spread as home favorites; since ’06, Oregon State is 15-9 as road underdog. OSU had soph QB with 12 career starts; entire OL is juniors/seniors.

USC’s national title hopes took huge hit last week with loss at Stanford, when they ran ball for only 29 yards (had only 81 rushing yards vs Hawai’i). Trojans won last eight games with Cal, covering six of last seven; they won last three played here by average score of 29-9. Cal lost winnable 35-28 game at Ohio State last week, victimized by a lousy kicker; they’ve allowed 31+ points in all three games, including 50-31 win over I-AA Southern Utah. Bears are 5-3 vs spread in last nine games as road dog- they’ve got senior QB with 27 career starts (most at Buffalo of MAC) and OL that starts three seniors, two freshmen. Since 2003, USC is 11-6 vs spread in game following a loss.

Auburn won national title with Cam Newton two years ago; since then, they’re 9-7, 1-2 this year, with only win in OT over UL-Monroe in game where total yardage was 418-410. If ULM runs ball for 165 yards vs Auburn (Clemson had 320), what will Bayou Bengals do? Over last decade, War Eagles are 7-3 as home underdog, 4-1 under Chizik, but they’ve completed just 34-67 passes this year with soph Frazier under center. They’ll need better balance to come close to pulling upset. First road game for LSU QB Mettenberger, who will rely on OL with four returning starters; Tigers ran ball for average for 268 yards/game in first three wins. Miles covered his last five tries as a road favorite. Six of last eight series games were decided by 7 or less points.

Georgia Tech relentlessly runs its option offense, so if you can’t stop the run, you’re dead; Miami allowed 32-52 points in two away games vs I-A opponents this year, giving up 542-518 TY, allowing 308 rushing yards at K-State, then 222 vs I-AA Bethune-Cookman last week. Hurricanes are 4-2 as road underdogs under Golden; they’ve pounded Tech last three years, 33-17/35-10/33-17, but were favored in all three games, in series where favored covered seven of last nine meetings. Tech is 10-8-1 as home favorite under Johnson; they’ve got senior QB with 20 career starts- their OL starts four juniors and a senior. Conference favorites are 8-7 vs spread this young season.

Mizzou-South Carolina last met in lower-level bowl seven years ago. Missouri is in Columbia, South Carolina is too, just two different Columbias. Both teams have QB injury issues; Gamecocks’ Shaw has bum shoulder—his replacement Thompson looked more than competent in big win last week. Mizzou QB Franklin declined painkilling shot last week, so he didn’t play; not sure if/how that affects team morale/chemistry. RS freshman Berkstresser beat Arizona State 24-20 in his first start, but completed just 21-41 passes, and isn’t nearly as mobile as Franklin. Since 2003, Mizzou is 10-7 vs spread as road underdog. Gamecocks covered seven of last ten as a home favorite.

Over last 14 years, Notre Dame has been favored to beat Michigan four times; they lost all four SU (all were in last six years). Underdog is whopping 14-2 in last 16 series games, with Michigan winning last three meetings, all by exactly 4 points, despite allowing average of 512.7 TY in those games. Wolverines are just 4-8 as road underdogs since Lloyd Carr retired; they’ve got mobile senior QB making 31st career start and three starters back on OL. Irish off to solid 3-0 start but scored only 20 points in beating Purdue/Mich State last two weeks. ND completed only 14-32 passes last week. Kelly has option to go to better passer Rees, if things get dicey. Since 2004, Irish are 12-24-1 as home favorites.

Minnesota’s mobile senior QB Gray (used to be WR), is out hurt (ankle), so soph Shortell (2 starts LY) is playing and doing OK (15-23 with four TDs); Gophers are 3-0, winning at UNLV in OT and beating Western Michigan by 5, hardly stellar feats, but wins nonetheless. Minnesota is just 6-11 as home favorites since Glen Mason left town after ’06 season, but Coach Kill has won at lower levels (So. Illinois/No. Illinois) and is making progress here. Syracuse allowed 42 points each in losses to Northwestern/USC, then struggled to beat I-AA Stony Brook 28-17 last week. Orange has senior QB who has improved a lot- they’re 5-7 as road dog under Marrone. Big East non-conference underdogs are 4-0-1 vs spread this year.

Over last five years, Kansas State is 13-3 vs spread as road underdog, covering last six such games; mobile senior QB Klein (started 2 games at WR couple years ago) has completed 73% of passes this, 25-32 vs Miami/North Texas, their I-A foes, but K-State has been hammered by Oklahoma of late, losing last five meetings by average of 22 points (56-17 LY). Hard to tell much about Oklahoma yet this year; they struggled at UTEP in opener (was 7-7 at half) before they won 24-7, then beat I-AA opponent after that, before last week’s bye. Sooners have terrific senior QB Jones (39 career starts); since 2006, they’re 23-11-1 vs spread as a home favorite. Was OU holding back before their conference opener?

Utah split pair of in-state rivalry games last two weeks, edging BYU in wild finish last week, after rare loss to Utah State the week before; over last decade, Utes are 13-8 vs spread as road underdogs (9-8 under Willingham). Utah lost its #1 QB (shoulder/quit football) so they’re using stopgap guy while trying to work more mobile sub in to play in running situations. Utah is 11-16 vs spread in last 27 games that followed a win. Arizona State (-3) went to Utah and waxed Utes 35-14 LY, thanks to + 5 turnover ratio. Young ASU lost 7 starters on both side of ball; they’re playing two QBs and coming off first loss (24-20 @ Missouri team playing without its #1 QB). Since ’07, Sun Devils are 15-11 as a home favorite.

Sun Belt teams are an impressive 13-5 vs spread in non-conference games this year, 2-2 as favorites, 0-2 at home; Western Kentucky upset in-state rival Kentucky last week, as Coach Taggart gradually upgrades his program- they were outgained 328-224 at Alabama the week before, not so bad- they’ve got senior QB making 34th career start and four returning starters on OL. WKU is 1-4 vs spread as a home favorite since moving to I-A. Southern Mississippi is 0-2 with 12 new starters and new coach; they outgained East Carolina by 96 yards last week, but -3 turnover ratio doomed them. C-USA teams are 9-15 vs spread out of conference this year, 4-7 as road underdogs.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 4

Saturday, September 22, 2012

(TC) Army at Wake Forest, 12:30 ET
Army: 7-0 ATS after allowing 37+ points
Wake Forest: 8-1 Under off a loss by 17+ points

(TC) Clemson at Florida State, 8:00 ET
Clemson: 9-1 Under in road games
Florida State: 29-15 ATS off BB home games

(TC) South Florida at Ball State, 4:30 ET
South Florida: 7-0 Under after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Ball State: 6-0 ATS playing on artificial turf

(TC) Memphis at Duke, 6:00 ET
Memphis: 2-10 ATS after forcing 1 or 0 turnovers
Duke: 16-6 Under off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games

(TC) Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, 3:30 ET
Eastern Michigan: 13-3 ATS away off a road loss by 21+ points
Michigan State: 9-21 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite

Bowling Green at Virginia Tech, 12:00 ET
Bowling Green: 17-7 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
Virginia Tech: 4-12 ATS as a favorite

Central Michigan at Iowa, 12:00 ET
Central Michigan: 1-9 ATS as an underdog
Iowa: 32-15 Under off a non-conference game

UAB at Ohio State, 12:00 ET
UAB: 6-0 ATS off BB losses
Ohio State: 0-7 ATS off a home win

(TC) East Carolina at North Carolina, 3:30 ET
East Carolina: 6-0 Over away off a win
North Carolina: 15-31 ATS at home off a non-conference game

(TC) Temple at Penn State, 3:30 ET
Temple: 9-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Penn State: 7-0 Under in home games

Maryland at West Virginia, 12:00 ET
Maryland: 0-9 ATS off a loss
West Virginia: 7-1 ATS off BB non-conference games

UTEP at Wisconsin, 12:00 ET
UTEP: 15-5 Over away off a win
Wisconsin: 17-3 ATS off BB Unders

Massachusetts at Miami OH, 12:00 ET
UMass: 0-3 ATS this season
Miami OH: 12-5 Under vs. conference opponents

(TC) Vanderbilt at Georgia, 7:45 ET
Vanderbilt: 1-9 ATS off a win by 28+ points
Georgia: 6-0 Over at home in September

(TC) Utah State at Colorado State, 7:00 ET
Utah State: 13-26 ATS away off a road game
Colorado State: 8-1 Over off a road game

(TC) Rutgers at Arkansas, 7:00 ET
Rutgers: 8-1 Under off a win
Arkansas: 10-1 ATS off BB Overs

(TC) Fresno State at Tulsa, 8:00 ET
Fresno State: 22-4 Over away in September
Tulsa: 10-2 ATS off BB wins

(TC) Marshall at Rice, 3:30 ET
Marshall: 8-20 ATS away in September
Rice: 13-4 ATS at home off a combined score of 70+ points

(TC) Kansas at Northern Illinois, 3:30 ET
Kansas: 9-21 ATS away off a home loss
Northern Illinois: 11-1 Under at home off an Over

(TC) Arizona at Oregon, 10:30 ET
Arizona: 1-9 ATS away off a win by 28+ points
Oregon: 28-11 ATS off BB home games

Oregon State at UCLA, 3:30 ET
Oregon State: 3-13 ATS away after allowing 9 points or less
UCLA: 9-1 ATS at home off a win by 28+ points

(TC) Virginia at TCU, 12:00 ET
Virginia: 34-19 Under off an Over
TCU: 29-15 ATS at home after allowing 14 points or less

(TC) California at USC, 6:00 ET
California: 23-10 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
USC: 13-4 Under at home off a SU loss as a favorite

(TC) Colorado at Washington State, 4:00 ET
Colorado: 1-12 ATS in road games
Washington State: 6-0 Over in September

(TC) LSU at Auburn, 7:00 ET
LSU: 8-0 ATS off a home game
Auburn: 3-8 ATS in the first month of the season

(TC) Miami FL at Georgia Tech, 3:00 ET
Miami FL: 38-19 Under after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Georgia Tech: 7-0 ATS off BB games scoring 42+ points

Wyoming at Idaho, 5:00 ET
Wyoming: 13-4 Under away in September
Idaho: 3-12 ATS at home off a loss by 28+ points

(TC) Kentucky at Florida, 12:20 ET
Kentucky: 8-1 Over off a non-conference game
Florida: 0-7 ATS off BB conference games

(TC) Connecticut at Western Michigan, 2:00 ET
Connecticut: 22-9 ATS away off BB non-conference games
Western Michigan: 9-2 Over off BB non-conference games

(TC) Missouri at South Carolina, 3:30 ET
Missouri: 2-10 ATS away off BB games with 40+ pass attempts
South Carolina: 9-2 Under off BB games scoring 31+ points

Michigan at Notre Dame, 7:30 ET
Michigan: 1-10 ATS off an Over
Notre Dame: 6-0 ATS off BB games allowing 17 points or less

Syracuse at Minnesota, 8:00 ET
Syracuse: 2-10 ATS on Saturdays
Minnesota: 12-2 Over as a home underdog of 7 points or less

Kansas State at Oklahoma, 7:50 ET
Kansas State: 6-0 ATS as a road underdog
Oklahoma: 6-19 ATS after gaining 300+ rushing yards

New Mexico at New Mexico State, 8:00 ET
New Mexico: 37-20 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
New Mexico State: 14-28 ATS as a favorite

(TC) Akron at Tennessee, 7:30 ET
Akron: 11-2 Over off BB ATS wins
Tennessee: 29-15 ATS off BB ATS losses

(TC) Mississipi at Tulane, 12:00 ET
Mississippi: 16-6 Under away off an Over
Tulane: 3-12 ATS at home off a loss by 28+ points

Louisiana Tech at Illinois, 8:00 ET
Louisiana Tech: 9-1 ATS off a home game
Illinois: 5-15 ATS at home off a win by 21+ points

Utah at Arizona State, 10:00 ET
Utah: 28-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Arizona State: 8-1 Over as a favorite

(TC) San Jose State at San Diego State, 8:00 ET
San Jose State: 7-0 ATS off a non-conference game
San Diego State: 10-24 ATS off BB wins

Air Force at UNLV, 10:00 ET
Air Force: 33-16 ATS away off an ATS win
UNLV: 0-6 ATS off a SU loss / ATS win

Nevada at Hawaii, 10:30 ET
Nevada: 6-1 Under as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
Hawaii: 7-0 ATS at home in the first half of the season


Added Games:

(TC) Florida Atlantic at Alabama, 5:00 ET
Florida Atl: 4-15 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5+ points
Alabama: 9-2 ATS off a win by 21+ points

Southern Miss at Western Kentucky, 7:00 ET
Southern Miss: 14-1 Under after forcing 0 turnovers
Western Kentucky: 7-0 ATS off a SU win

Troy at North Texas, 7:00 ET
Troy: 12-3 ATS off BB games gaining 450+ total yards
North Texas: 7-18 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

Louisville at Florida International, 7:00 ET
Louisville: 6-0 ATS in road games
Florida Int: 10-2 Under off an ATS win

South Alabama at Mississippi State, 7:00 ET
South Alabama: 2-0 ATS after scoring 14 points or less
Mississippi State: 11-2 Under at home off a road win

(TC) = Time Change

[StarDust Bum]

Here is your early picks:

NCAAF

Saturday, September 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Alabama-Birmingham - 12:00 PM ET Ohio State -35.5 500
Ohio State - Under 58 500

Bowling Green - 12:00 PM ET Bowling Green +16.5 500
Virginia Tech - Under 47 500

Texas El Paso - 12:00 PM ET Wisconsin -18 500
Wisconsin - Over 51 500

Maryland - 12:00 PM ET West Virginia -25.5 500
West Virginia - Over 59 500

Central Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Central Michigan +14.5 500
Iowa - Under 48.5 500

Virginia - 12:00 PM ET Texas Christian -18 500
Texas Christian - Under 54.5 500

Mississippi - 12:00 PM ET Mississippi -19 500
Tulane - Under 54 500

Massachusetts - 12:00 PM ET Miami (Ohio) -23.5 500
Miami (Ohio) - Over 49.5 500

Kentucky - 12:21 PM ET Florida -23 500
Florida - Under 52 500

Army - 12:30 PM ET Wake Forest -7 500
Wake Forest - Under 55.5 500

Connecticut - 2:00 PM ET Western Michigan -1 500
Western Michigan - Over 41.5 500

Miami - 3:00 PM ET Miami +14 500
Georgia Tech - Over 61 500

Oregon State - 3:30 PM ET Oregon State +7.5 500
UCLA - Over 51.5 500

Eastern Michigan - 3:30 PM ET Michigan State -31 500
Michigan State - Under 49.5 500

East Carolina - 3:30 PM ET East Carolina +14.5 500
North Carolina - Under 62.5 500

Temple - 3:30 PM ET Temple +7 500
Penn State - Under 43.5 500

Marshall - 3:30 PM ET Rice +3 500
Rice - Over 70.5 500

Kansas - 3:30 PM ET Kansas +8.5 500
Northern Illinois - Over 53.5 500

Missouri - 3:30 PM ET South Carolina -10 500
South Carolina - Under 47.5 500

Colorado - 4:00 PM ET Washington State -20 500
Washington State - Over 58.5 500

South Florida - 4:30 PM ET Ball State +8.5 500
Ball State - Under 57.5 500

Florida Atlantic - 5:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic +49 500
Alabama - Under 58 500

Wyoming - 5:00 PM ET Idaho -3 500
Idaho - Over 49.5 500

California - 6:00 PM ET California +15.5 500
Southern California - Over 58 500

Memphis - 6:00 PM ET Duke -23.5 500
Duke - Over 62.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Your Evening Best Bets :

Louisiana State - 7:00 PM ET Louisiana State -19 500
Auburn - Over 45 500

Rutgers - 7:00 PM ET Rutgers +9.5 500
Arkansas - Under 50.5 500

Utah State - 7:00 PM ET Colorado State +12 500
Colorado State - Under 52.5 500

Troy - 7:00 PM ET North Texas +1.5 500
North Texas - Over 61.5 500

South Alabama - 7:00 PM ET South Alabama +31.5 500
Mississippi State - Under 48.5 500

Southern Mississippi - 7:00 PM ET Western Kentucky -3 500
Western Kentucky - Under 48 500

Louisville - 7:00 PM ET Florida International +10.5 500
Florida International - Over 52 500

Akron - 7:30 PM ET Akron +32 500
Tennessee - Under 64.5 500

Michigan - 7:30 PM ET Notre Dame -6 500
Notre Dame - Over 50.5 500

Vanderbilt - 7:45 PM ET Georgia -14.5 500
Georgia - Under 50 500

Kansas State - 7:50 PM ET Oklahoma -15.5 500
Oklahoma - Under 56.5 500

San Jose State - 8:00 PM ET San Jose State +3 500
San Diego State - Over 54 500

Clemson - 8:00 PM ET Clemson +14.5 500
Florida State - Over 54 500

Fresno State - 8:00 PM ET Fresno State +6.5 500
Tulsa - Over 67 500

Louisiana Tech - 8:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech +3 500
Illinois - Under 58.5 500

Syracuse - 8:00 PM ET Syracuse -2.5 500
Minnesota - Under 54 500

New Mexico - 8:00 PM ET New Mexico State -5 500
New Mexico State - Under 57.5 500

Utah - 10:00 PM ET Arizona State -7 500
Arizona State - Over 50.5 500

Air Force - 10:00 PM ET Air Force -10 500
UNLV - Over 54.5 500

Nevada - 10:30 PM ET Hawaii +7.5 500
Hawaii - Over 61.5 500

Arizona - 10:30 PM ET Arizona +20.5 500
Oregon - Under 80

[StarDust Bum]

Recapping Sept's Record NCAAFB:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/22/12 51-*39-*2 56.67% +*4050 Detail
09/21/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/20/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
09/19/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
09/15/12 49-*40-*1 55.06% +*2500 Detail
09/14/12 1-*0-*1 100.00% +*500 Detail
09/13/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/08/12 52-*38-*3 57.78% +*5100 Detail
09/07/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
09/06/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/03/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
09/02/12 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
09/01/12 9-*18-*0 33.33% -*5400 Detail

Totals 171-*144-*7 54.29% +6300