The Bum's Aug-Sept College Football Best Bets !

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Notre Dame Aims For Revenge Against Michigan Wolverines

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish look for their first 4-0 start since 2002 when they host the Michigan Wolverines in a Saturday primetime event on NBC.

The Don Best Pro Odds screen has Notre Dame ranging between a 5½-6 point favorite. The total is 50½-51 and the contest will begin at 7:30 p.m. (ET) from Notre Dame Stadium.

Notre Dame (3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) is getting more respect from the writers at the AP Poll at No. 11, compared to No. 15 in the Coaches. The Don Best Linemakers Poll has consistently liked the Irish since the preseason and currently has them at No. 11 as well.

Coach Brian Kelly’s team started out the season with victories over Navy (50-10) and Purdue (20-17) but was in desperate need of a statement win as underdogs at top-10 Michigan State last week.

That’s exactly what the Irish got with redshirt freshman quarterback Everett Golson throwing for 178 yards and having a touchdown through the air and on the ground. The final score was 20-3 and it seemed hard to believe they were the ones getting 4½-points.

Golson did only complete 43.8 percent of his passes (14-of-32) against Michigan State and he needs to be more accurate Saturday. It will help that running back Cierre Wood should get far more than the 10 carries (56 yards) he had last week. He was working his way back after being suspended the first two contests.

Notre’s Dame’s defense has been tremendous to this point, tied for eighth nationally in scoring (10 PPG) and tied for 18th in total yards (288.7 YPG). All-American linebacker Manti Te’o has lived up to his billing with 30 tackles. Safety Jamoris Slaughter (Achilles) was just lost for the season, which does hurt.

Michigan (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) has been on a redemption mission since an opening 41-14 loss to Alabama at Cowboys Stadium. The Wolverines didn’t look worthy of even being on the same field as the defending national champs and subsequent wins over Air Force (31-25) and UMass (63-13) has only moderately silenced their critics.

For starters, Michigan didn’t come close to covering the 21½-point spread against Air Force. The UMass game was a cover of the giant 45-points, but it was an obvious mismatch of talent with the squad just moving to Division I this year.

The Wolverines are back up to No. 18 in the AP, No. 17 in the Coaches and No. 14 at Don Best.

Coach Brady Hoke wanted to diversify his offense heading into this season and not rely as much on dual-threat quarterback Denard Robinson. That has failed miserably with Robinson throwing for 699 yards in the three games and also accumulating 351 of the team’s 577 rushing yards.

Junior running back Fitzgerald Toussaint was supposed to carry more of the load, but he has just 92 total rushing yards (4.0 per carry) after missing the opener against 'Bama due to suspension. He needs to be a focus point early in this game as Robinson (four picks this year) can be neutralized some against better opponents, especially on the road.

Michigan has won the last three meetings against Notre Dame, all coming by a 4-point margin, and all as around field goal ‘dogs. Robinson led stunning late comebacks the last two years, amassing 948 total yards of offense.

This looks like a good spot for some Notre Dame revenge against Robinson, and a Michigan bunch that is just 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games away from home.

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Missouri Takes SEC Road Trip To South Carolina

The Missouri Tigers hoped to score their first SEC win in Columbia a couple of weeks ago. They can still claim it in Columbia this week, though not in the Show Me State and instead on the road in the Palmetto State.

Mizzou hopes to crack the seal with a conference win against the ol' ball coach hisself this Saturday when the Tigers hit the road to take on Steve Spurrier and the South Carolina Gamecocks. The kickoff at Williams-Brice Stadium will be televised by CBS beginning at 3:30 p.m. (ET), and the college football odds are stacked against Missouri which is a 10-point road underdog. There has been some downward movement on the total, now at 49 after opening 52½.

Gary Pinkel and Missouri are in fact heading out on the road for the first time this season, and certainly could've picked a better spot for their first SEC dubya than Columbia, SC. Then again, there are no easy SEC locales, even on your home gridiron, and the Tigers did grab a win here seven years ago as smaller road 'dogs. Mizzou also triumphed at a 1979 bowl game in the only other meeting between the schools.

Missouri had a shot at its first win in the new conference a couple of weeks back when Georgia came to Faurot Field. The Tigers built a 17-9 lead early in the third quarter before the Bulldogs got things going in an eventual 41-20 victory as slight 1-point road chalk.

That loss was sandwiched between a couple of wins over Southeastern Louisiana (62-10) and Arizona State (24-20), the former enough to cover a 43½-point line and the latter ending in a 'push' on a 4-point spread.

Defense saved the day for the Tigers in last week's win over the Sun Devils, a game that was played without starting QB James Franklin. The junior suffered an injury to his right shoulder in the loss to Georgia and was replaced in the game against ASU by redshirt freshman Corbin Berkstresser. Franklin is listed as probable for this week according to the Don Best college football injury report.

Spurrier's USC squad enters the game ranked 7-8 in the AP and coaches polls respectively, and ninth in the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll. The Gamecocks' 3-0 record includes a 17-13 road win over SEC East rival Vanderbilt in the season opener South Carolina failed to cover the 6½-point spread in that contest that never came close to the 44½-point scoreboard hurdle.

The two games since have both gone 'over' while the Gamecocks covered much larger numbers at home against East Carolina and Alabama-Birmingham. They've now won their last six home contests, covering five of the tilts.

South Carolina is also dealing with a banged-up QB for Saturday's date with Mizzou. Connor Shaw has a hairline fracture in his right shoulder, an injury suffered in the win over Vandy. The junior missed the East Carolina game, and left early in the third quarter of last week's win against UAB when the shoulder was re-injured after a hit that resulted in a personal foul penalty on the Blazers.

Shaw will reportedly start this week with sophomore Dylan Thompson waiting in the wings to come on in relief if needed. Thompson had a big day subbing for Shaw with 330 yards passing and three touchdowns in the 48-10 pasting of ECU. He added two more TD passes in the second half last week vs. UAB.

Weather reports for Columbia on Saturday look fine with clear skies and afternoon temps in the upper-80s.

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Temple Owls Out To Break Long Drought Against Penn State

If it seems like forever since Temple (1-1) has beaten Penn State (1-2) in football...well, that’s because it has been almost forever since the Owls beat the Nittany Lions on the gridiron.

How long since the last Temple win over Penn State? How about almost a decade before even Joe Paterno arrived in State College, PA? How about almost two months before the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor?

The date was October 18, 1941, and Temple has lost 29 straight games to the Nittany Lions since. But the Owls think they might have their best chance in over 70 years to break that hex on Saturday afternoon at Beaver Stadium.

Oddsmakers, however, aren’t so sure. A check of the Don Best college football odds screen notes that Penn State is favored by 7½-8 points at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, with the early total at 42. Kickoff time has been switched to 3:30 p.m. (ET) on Saturday.

Not that the Owls haven’t come close before. Wayne Hardin’s Temple side nearly pulled a shocking upset over one of Paterno’s powerhouses back in the 1975 opener, outgaining Penn State 402-201 but being nipped at the wire by a 26-25 count. Hardin came close again in 1976 before Paterno again escaped with a one-point win, 31-30. And in the 1978 opener, a Nittany Lions team that would come within a whisker of the national championship had to struggle to overcome another scrappy Hardin Owl edition, 10-7, in the season opener.

But in recent years, Temple has not had a better chance to end the long series winless streak than it did a year ago, when a late turnover led to a Penn State TD with less than three minutes to play in a 14-10 Nittany Lions escape.

The Owls, however, believe this might be the year to finally put to the sword that long losing streak to Penn State. Of course, the upheaval over the past 10 months in State College is one factor; this isn’t the same Penn State as in past years. More on that in a moment.

But Temple has covered the last three meetings vs. the Nittany Lions and hopes to spring a trap on Saturday at Beaver Stadium. After perhaps looking ahead to this matchup before getting ambushed by Maryland 36-27 in their last game, the Owls have had two weeks to prepare for Penn State.

Mostly, Temple head coach Steve Addazio has hopefully eradicated some of the snapping issues which proved disastrous for the Owls vs. the Terps. Specifically, QB Chris Coyer was diving for too many snaps while in the shotgun formation vs. Maryland.

But Temple believes its pound the ball straight-ahead philosophy can work to some degree against the Nittany Lions. Coyer, who only passed the ball 18 times vs. Maryland, is a dangerous run threat. The Owls also hope to have starting RB “Mini” Matt Brown close to 100 percent after being slowed by an ankle injury vs. Maryland. Moreover, Boston College transfer RB Montel Harris is supposed to be ready to contribute after suffering a pulled hamstring in the opening win three weeks ago vs. Villanova.

Meanwhile, Penn State is at least back in the win column after suffering two losses to begin the season under new head coach Bill O’Brien. The Nittany Lions torpedoed Navy, 34-7, last week, although they were aided by some sloppy play from the Mids who were guilty of four turnovers. Navy actually outgained Penn State on the afternoon.

Penn State has hardly looked like a smooth-running machine in the first three weeks of the season. Sideline communication breakdowns have resulted in O’Brien being forced to burn needless timeouts in the first quarters of all three games to date. And while Penn State has jumped out quickly on foes Ohio U, Virginia and Navy, outscoring them a combined 41-6 in the first half, the Nittany Lions have been outscored 42-23 in the second halves of the first three games.

O’Brien, however, could use a bit more production from the running game (which wasn’t helped by star Silas Redd’s summer transfer to Southern Cal), and to that end hopes that RBs Bill Belton and Derek Day are back from injuries this week; the Nittany Lions ranked 102nd in national rush stats at only 102 ypg.

On the plus side, QB Matt McGloin has developed solid rapport with his receiving corps, specifically wideout Allen Robinson, already with 24 catches for 322 yards and four TDs after just three games. Redshirt frosh TE Kyle Carter has also been a pleasant surprise with 11 catches to date.

What Penn State will be aiming to do, however, is be more efficient in the red zone and not be forced to settle for field goal tries, especially after early struggles from PK Sam Ficken, whose four missed field goals proved costly in the September 8 loss at Virginia.

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Around the Nation - Week 3

September 19, 2012

As we head towards the commencement of conference play in the next week or two, thru three weeks of action, let's do another conference round-up. I am not going to get too in depth, but at a high level look at the conference's top ranked team, how many teams are ranked, and discuss performance and what to look for as the league games get kick-started as the calendar turns to October.

( ) Parenthesis notes teams ranked in current Power Poll

ACC (2)
Top Ranked Team: #2 FLORIDA STATE
Other Ranked Teams: #6 CLEMSON
Quick Thoughts: Only two undefeated teams remain (the Big 12 for example has 8 of their 10 teams still undefeated), but does have a pair of top 6 teams - who happen to clash this weekend in the ABC Showcase game on Saturday night. #6 Clemson at #2 Florida State will likely not only decide the Atlantic Division, but also the ACC Championship as the Coastal Division looks subpar currently. This is FSU's time to step up, and show they are ready to be taken seriously as a National Title contender - will they grasp it?

BIG 12 (6)
Top Ranked Team: #8 OKLAHOMA
Other Ranked Teams: #9 K-ST, #10 WVU, #12 TEXAS, #22 TCU, #23 BAYLOR, ISU "NEXT FIVE"
Quick Thoughts: Similar to the ACC, the Big 12 features a pair of Top 10 teams squaring off this weekend for a chance to get a leg up in the conference race - keep in mind this season the Big 12 is playing a round robin format - 9 conference games with no championship game. It's all about the regular season to earn that coveted BCS berth - and there figures to be at least four teams heavily involved in the mix once November arrives. This race should be extremely exciting, as the final weekend of the season will feature #12 Texas @ #9 KSU and #8 Oklahoma @ #22 TCU.

BIG 10 (5)
Top Ranked Team: #14 OHIO STATE
Other Ranked Teams: #19 MICHIGAN, #20 PURDUE, #21 MICHIGAN ST, #25 NORTHWESTERN
Quick Thoughts: Although the B10 has five teams ranked, there is clearly no true challenger to the BCS Championship amongst the group. #19 Michigan was thought to be that team heading into the season, but following a blowout loss to #1 Alabama and a narrow home win over Air Force, the sizzle has faded. The Wolverines could grab some headlines this week if they can wrestle away another win from #11 Notre Dame in South Bend on Saturday night. I projected #20 Purdue to win the Leaders division and still feel very solid about that selection. At the end of the day I still believe Michigan finds itself in the Rose Bowl.

BIG EAST (1)
Top Ranked Team: #17 LOUISVILLE
Other Ranked Teams: NONE
Quick Thoughts: For years the Big East has easily been the weakest of the automatic qualifier conferences, and once again in 2012 the same story applies. Since the preseason I have I felt #17 Louisville could be a Top 15 team by season's end, and that has not changed one bit following three weeks of action. Their sophomore QB Teddy Bridgewater is the real deal, and HC Charlie Strong has done a phenomenal job of upgrading the talent across the roster, especially on the defensive side of the football. Although Rutgers and Cincinnati remain unbeaten they are not close to being part of my Power Poll, and USF was a huge disappointment on Thursday night losing to Rutgers at home. This race will be wide open all season long with just about every team outside Temple and possible UConn being capable of beating the others on any given night. But, the Cardinals will be the most consistent bunch, and win the hardware.

CUSA (0)
Top Ranked Team: NONE
Other Ranked Teams: NONE
Quick Thoughts: This conference continues to be one of the worst in the country as they have not bounced back at all from a 2-10 opening weekend - the entire league sits at an aggregate 10-23 with no undefeated teams and only three (East Carolina, UCF, Tulsa) above .500. I was bullish on UCF heading into this season, believing they could be the best non-BCS team in the country - that could still be the case, albeit unlikely following their loss at Ohio State in Wk2. Tulsa has a decent squad, but the loss of their leader and All CUSA QB GJ Kinne will not help. The league is wide open, full of mediocrity - from the East I see three teams with a shot (ECU, UCF, Marshall), while the West appears to be Tulsa's to lose, however 0-3 Houston could still wind up making some noise in conference play. It is highly unlikely any of the teams in this conference appear in the Power Poll moving forward.

INDEPENDENTS (1)
Top Ranked Team: #11 NOTRE DAME
Other Ranked Teams: NONE
Quick Thoughts: The Independents are once again led by #11 Notre Dame - and this Irish team is legit, as I mentioned in my preseason column. I was not surprised one bit by their easy win @ #21 Michigan State last week, but look for a tighter game this Saturday night in South Bend when they host #19 Michigan. ND has a schedule packed with top quality opponents, so a run to a BCS championship is not going to happen - although a rare appearance in a BCS bowl remains very possible. BYU looked very strong in their first two games, but struggled badly in Wk3, which was their first road game at chief rival Utah. That loss was surprising on many levels, considering BYU had massive revenge in mind after suffering a Utes beat down at home last year, and Utah lost its leader and QB Jordan Wynn the week before. Navy and Army both are down a notch from past editions and will not make headlines this season.

MAC (0)
Top Ranked Team: NONE
Other Ranked Teams: NONE
Quick Thoughts: Although none of its teams have cracked my Power Poll, the MAC remains one of the better non-AQ conferences in the country - and as talked about in my Wk1 column, has shown well in many spots against top level BCS competition this year. Ohio is the only undefeated team, and they have to be considered the favorite to win the league behind All MAC QB Tyler Tettleton. Also from the East, Bowling Green and Miami, Ohio have outside shots at making some noise. The West is wide open with each of the six teams having a legit shot at winning the division. As of now I peg the favorite to be Toledo, but Ball State, UNI and CMU will all have their chances. Keep an eye on the schedule - both the home/road splits, and especially the inter-conference matchups with the East - as that could very well wind being the aspect that determines the winner of the West.

MWC (0)
Top Ranked Team: NONE
Other Ranked Teams: NONE, but FRESNO STATE & NEVADA are in "NEXT FIVE"
Quick Thoughts: The MWC has a few teams that are very strong this season, with Fresno State & Nevada leading the way. I have touted how strong a club I believed Fresno had this season, and they haven't disappointed me yet behind the solid QB/RB duo of Derek Carr/Robbie Rouse. Even the Bulldogs loss was a respectable one, 42-25 at #5 Oregon. If it wasn't for a late comeback by USF, Nevada would be sitting at 3-0 and ranked in the high teens of my PP. The Pack beat Cal in Berkeley to open the season, and have a potent offense behind their Pistol packages. Lastly, Boise State needs to be mentioned as a candidate for a conference title no matter what conference they are playing in. The Broncos will continue getting better as the season progresses, following the loss of 15 starters from LY's team (#122 in FBS). Their season will come down to October 13th when they host Fresno, and December 1st when they travel to Reno to face Nevada. I believe Fresno State is the best team, but the schedule does them no favors as they have to travel to both Nevada and Boise, hence opening the door to what should be a thrilling finish - and certain must see TV when those three teams play their round robin.

PAC 12 (4)
Top Ranked Team: #5 OREGON
Other Ranked Teams: #15 STANFORD, #16 USC, #18 UCLA, ARIZONA "NEXT FIVE"
Quick Thoughts: In my final preseason poll I had three Pac 12 teams: #3 USC, #6 Oregon, #23 Utah. Now, through 3 weeks of action, I have four teams ranked, another in the "next five", and the four currently ranked does not include Utah from the original poll. There is no question through the early out-of-conference portion of the schedule the Pac 12 has performed well, and has many looking forward to conference play. Prior to the season I don't know anyone who expected anything other than a #16 USC vs. #5 Oregon Pac 12 Championship Game - now, many other schools believe they have a shot. #15 Stanford has to top that list, following their 4th straight win over the Trojans last week in Palo Alto. I have been very hard on Stanford, especially their HC David Shaw - but now must give credit where credit is due following their 3-0 start. Kudos to Shaw and Stanford - let's see if they can keep it going. #18 UCLA and Arizona have made national noise following 3-0 starts, but it will be interesting to see how things shake out for the two programs that are led by new coaches once conference play begins. To me, UCLA is a legit, solid squad behind new playmaking QB Brett Hundley and RB Jonathan Franklin - they may have staying power. Arizona will struggle some in my opinion once the calendar turns to October and beyond, but so far it's hard to argue with the success of new HC Rich Rodriguez. When it's all said and done I am sticking with a USC vs. Oregon Pac 12 Championship Game, but I think Oregon is now the team to beat.

SEC (6)
Top Ranked Team: #1 ALABAMA
Other Ranked Teams: #3 GEORGIA, #4 LSU, #7 S CAROLINA, #13 FLORIDA, #24 TENNESSEE
Quick Thoughts: Once again, the SEC has shown the rest of the country it is the premier college football conference, with no end to the domination in sight. I currently have six teams (4 from the East, 2 from the West) in my PP, which is down from the eight I had in my preseason edition. The two teams that fell out of the rankings are Arkansas & Auburn, both of whom I had #19 or lower in my final preseason PP. The Crimson Tide once again appear to be the class of college football, and they also have the luxury of not facing a team in my current PP until a 10/20 trip to Knoxville vs. #24 Tennessee. In addition to that, 'Bama still has road trips to Missouri & #4 LSU - so it is far from certain they will go unbeaten during the regular season, but is sure appears very possible, especially considering their weak home slate that doesn't feature a game where the line is likely to be below at least two touchdowns. The East will be extremely exciting each and every week as four teams have a legitimate chance at hoisting the crown, with #3 UGA and #7 USC being my two most likely champs. I have been more bullish on the Bulldogs than just about anyone else all season long, and haven't seen anything through three games that makes me want to drop them from the #3 spot in the rankings. Similar to the MAC, the schedule will play a critical role in the eventual East division winner - I will break down these schedules in a coming column once conference play really gets going as September comes to an end.

SUN BELT (0)
Top Ranked Team: NONE
Other Ranked Teams: NONE
Quick Thoughts: For being the Sun Belt and having no teams even on the radar of being ranked in my PP, boy have these schools played some impressive games so far this year, even against the big bad SEC. Western Kentucky took down Kentucky in Lexington last week; UL-Monroe beat Arkansas in Fayetteville two weeks ago, and nearly beat Auburn on the Plains last week falling in OT; North Texas covered a pair of road games vs. Top 9 teams (LSU, Kansas State); and Troy fell to Mississippi State last week 30-24. Not too shabby at all for a conference that is typically the worst in FBS football. The conference championship will likely come down to UL-Monroe, Troy and Western Kentucky - and I give the edge to UL-Monroe currently.

WAC (0)
Top Ranked Team: NONE
Other Ranked Teams: NONE, but UTAH STATE is in "NEXT FIVE"
Quick Thoughts: This conference features a pair of undefeated teams in UTSA (who led FBS this season with 21 returning starters) and Louisiana Tech, along with a pair of 2-1 squads in San Jose State and Utah State - very solid start to the season for all four of these teams. Outside UTSA, the remaining three are very good teams, as Louisiana Tech has scored 56 points in both of their games so far; SJSU only lost by 3 @ #15 Stanford in Wk1; and Utah State beat Utah & had Wisconsin beat in Madison before missing a late FG attempt. Although this conference has been raided recently and lost many of its bigger name schools, the football at the top of the remaining conference is solid. I still give the edge to La Tech as I have concerns about consistent QB play with Utah State and the offense in general at SJ State, but none of the three would shock me if they hoisted the trophy come November 24.

Week 3 Power Poll
(ranking, team, record, last week's PP ranking, next game vs. Power Poll team)

1) Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0, #1): 10/20 @ #24 TENNESSEE
2) Florida State Seminoles (3-0, #2): 09/22 VS #6 CLEMSON
3) Georgia Bulldogs (3-0, #3): 09/29 VS #24 TENNESSEE
4) LSU Tigers (3-0, #4): 10/06 @ #13 FLORIDA
5) Oregon Ducks (3-0, #5): 11/03 @ #16 USC
6) Clemson Tigers (3-0, #7): 09/22 @ #2 FLORIDA STATE
7) South Carolina Gamecocks (3-0, #10): 10/06 VS #3 GEORGIA
8) Oklahoma Sooners (2-0, #9): 09/22 VS #9 KANSAS STATE
9) Kansas State Wildcats (3-0, #11): 09/22 @ #8 OKLAHOMA
10) West Virginia Mountaineers (2-0, #12): 09/29 VS #23 BAYLOR
11) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-0, #13): 09/22 VS #19 MICHIGAN
12) Texas Longhorns (3-0, #15): 10/06 VS #10 WEST VIRGINIA
13) Florida Gators (3-0, #17): 10/06 VS #4 LSU
14) Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0, #8): 09/29 @ #16 MICHIGAN STATE
15) Stanford Cardinal (3-0, N5): 10/13 @ #11 NOTRE DAME
16) USC Trojans (2-1, #6): 11/03 VS #5 OREGON
17) Louisville Cardinals (3-0, #21): no more games versus current Power Poll teams
18) UCLA Bruins (3-0, #19): 11/17 VS #16 USC
19) Michigan Wolverines (2-1, #22): 09/22 @ #11 NOTRE DAME
20) Purdue Boilermakers (2-1, N5): 10/06 VS #19 MICHIGAN
21) Michigan State Spartans (2-1, #16): 09/29 VS #14 OHIO STATE
22) TCU Horned Frogs (2-0, #24): 10/13 @ #23 BAYLOR
23) Baylor Bears (2-0, #25): 09/29 @ #10 WEST VIRGINIA
24) Tennessee Volunteers (2-1, #14): 09/29 @ #3 GEORGIA
25) Northwestern Wildcats (3-0, NR): 11/10 @ #19 MICHIGAN

Dropped out of Power Poll:
18) South Florida
20) Virginia Tech
23) BYU

Next Five to keep eye on, in alphabetical order only....
A) Arizona Wildcats: NR
B) Fresno State Bulldogs: NR
C) Iowa State Cyclones: NR
D) Nevada Wolfpack: #24
E) Utah State Aggies: NR

This week we have a pair of Top 10 Power Poll matchups, and one of the best rivalries in CFB:
(6) Clemson at (2) Florida State
(9) Kansas State at (8) Oklahoma
(19) Michigan at (11) Notre Dame

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 4

September 19, 2012

Thursday, Sept. 20

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

BYU at BOISE STATE...Boise 1-7 vs. line last 8 on blue carpet, while BYU 8-2 vs. line its last 10 on the board since mid 2011. Cougs 9-5 vs. line away since 2010, 6-2 last 8 as road dog. BYU, based on team trends.

Friday, Sept. 21
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

BAYLOR at UL-MONROE...Baylor only 5-8 vs. line away since 2010 (but 4-3 as road chalk that span). ULM has covered 5 of last 6 since late last season. ULM, based on team trends.

Saturday, Sept. 22
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

ARMY at WAKE FOREST...Army having lots of trouble away from home lately, just 2-7 vs. line away since 2011. Grobe 19-13-1 vs. line at Winston-Salem since 2007. Wake, based on recent trends.

CLEMSON at FLORIDA STATE...Dabo has covered last three in series and Clemson actually 6-1 vs. number last 7 meetings since 2005. Dabo 6-2 vs. line away since LY, but Jimbo 14-8 as chalk since 2010. Dabo, based on series trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at BALL STATE...Skip roughed up Lembo LY in Tampa by 37-7 count. Skip, however, just 2-10 vs. line last 12 on board after Rutgers loss, and his teams are 2-10 their last 12 as road chalk at USF & ECU (since 2007). Pete Lembo 3-0 vs. line TY. Ball, based on extended Skip road chalk woes.

MEMPHIS at DUKE...Recalls of Tulane entering Wallace Wade Stadium LY and getting trashed 48-27. Cutcliffe 9-4 vs. line last 13 at Durham, Memphis 10-19 vs. line away since 2007. Duke, based on team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...Tough start for Ron English this season as EMU 0-3 SU and vs. line. Dantonio 4-1 vs. line last 5 laying DD vs. non-Big Ten foes at East Lansing. MSU, based on team trends.

BOWLING GREEN at VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer on 4-14 spread slide since late in 2010 season, he's also 1-7 last 8 as Blacksburg chalk. BGSU 17-8 as road dog since 2007. BGSU, based on team trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at IOWA...Dan Enos now 1-14 his last 15 on board with CMU and 3-19 last 22 spread decisions with Chips after covering his first four chances in 2010. Iowa kind of a tough sell at the moment, too, as Ferentz 0-3 vs. line TY, 5-11 since 2011, and 6-14-1 last 21. Slight to Iowa, based on CMU negatives.

UAB at OHIO STATE...Blazers 8-4 as DD dog since 2010 but that was the doings of previous Callaway regime. Urban Meyer teams still 36-20 last 56 on board at Florida & OSU (but 1-2 TY). Slight to OSU, based on Urban Meyer trends.

EAST CAROLINA at NORTH CAROLINA...Ruffin McNeill only 4-8 as road dog since 2010. UNC, based on recent ECU road woes.

TEMPLE at PENN STATE...Temple had its chance to get Penn State LY but let it slip away in 14-10 loss at Linc. Owls 17-8 as dog since 2007, while PSU 2-6-1 vs. points at home since LY and 5-10-1 since 2010. Temple, based on team trends.

MARYLAND at WEST VIRGINIA...Edsall ended 8-game spread losing streak with Terps vs. Temple. This was a close 37-31 game LY that WVU covered at College Park as a very slight favorite! Edsall was 18-10 as dog with UConn between 2007-10. Holgorsen only 3-4 as Morgantown chalk since taking over Mounties LY. Slight to Maryland, based on extended Edsall marks.

UTEP at WISCONSIN...Wiscy no covers last 5 since late 2011, but Bielema is 10-6 vs. line at home since 2010. Mike Price only 5-7 as road dog since 2010 (3-4 getting DD). Slight to UTEP, based on recent Wisconsin woes.

UMASS at MIAMI-OHIO...Miami-Ohio 6-5 as chalk since 2010 but only 6-14 in role since 2007. Slight to UMass, based on extended Miami-O chalk woes.

VANDERBILT at GEORGIA...Dores have covered 4 of last 6 in series but were routed 43-0 at Athens in 2010. Dores just 2-5 vs. line away for Franklin and 3-9 since 2010 in what was once a pretty good Vandy role. Richt 9-5 as chalk since LY, 7-4 as DD home chalk since 2010. Slight to Georgia, based on recent trends.

UTAH STATE at COLORADO STATE...Bitter home loss for Utags in this game LY. Rams only 2-5 vs. line at home since LY but are 11-6 as Fort Collins dog since 2007. Utags 0-4 as road chalk LY and 1-6 in role since 2007. CSU, based on team trends.

RUTGERS at ARKANSAS...Arkansas has covered the last three years in game immediately after Bama (all of those vs. Texas A&M). But absence of Petrino being felt as Hogs 0-3 vs. line at home TY after 11-3 spread mark past two seasons as host. Flood looking to pick up extended Schiano road dog marks for Rutgers (now 9-4-1 in role since '07 after USF win). Rutgers, based on extended road dog marks.

FRESNO STATE at TULSA...Old WAC rivals also met in 2005 Liberty Bowl with Tulsa prevailing. DeRuyter 3-0 vs. line in early going for Bulldogs and Fresno now 14-7 as road dog since 2007 in what was a good Pat Hill role. Slight to Fresno, based on recent trends.

MARSHALL at RICE...Herd just 4-10 vs. line away since 2010 (0-2 as road chalk that span). Rice was cooked in home opener by UCLA but extended home spread (19-11 since 2007) and home dog (10-7 since 2007) marks are positive. Rice, based on extended team trends.

KANSAS at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Weis teams 17-25-3 vs. line last 45 on board at ND & Kansas. NIU lost 45-42 shootout at Lawrence LY. NIU, based on Weis negatives.

ARIZONA at OREGON...Ducks have turned into Boise and can't seem to cover these big numbers at home, now 0-7-1 last 8 as DD Autzen chalk. Cats have covered 5 of last 7 in series. Arizona, based on Oregon home woes.

OREGON STATE at UCLA...Bruins won and covered as dog the past two years in series and have covered last 3 and 8 of last 9 against Beavers. UCLA 35-16 vs. line at Rose Bowl since early in 2004 season. Riley, however, has been chalk lately in this series, and note his 21-10-1 dog mark (1-0 2012) since 2007. UCLA, based on series trends.

VIRGINIA at TCU...Rematch of 2009 game at Charlottesville won easily by Frogs 30-14. Frogs, however, only 5-9 as chalk since LY and 6-8 as Fort Worth favorite since 2010. If Cavs getting DDs note 4-0 spread mark on road in role past two years for Mike London. Virginia, especially if getting DDs, based on recent trends.

CALIFORNIA at SOUTHERN CAL...Trojans have pretty much owned this series since Tedford's signature win for Golden Bears way back in 2003 in the wild multi-OT 34-31 win over Pete Carroll's SC, the only Trojan loss that year. Tedford has lost 8 in a row to SC since and has covered only one of last seven meetings vs. Troy, pummeled the last three seasons. Tedford 4-9 vs. line away since 2010 and 11-22 since 2006 on road. Lane "Tosh" Kiffin 2-0 SU and vs. line against Tedford. SC, based on series trends.

COLORADO at WASHINGTON STATE...Leach 0-3 vs. line TY but compared to Buffs that's not bad, as CU is 1-11 vs. mark its last 12 as road dog. Embree lost at home as chalk vs. Cougs LY. WSU, based on CU road dog negatives.

LSU at AUBURN...Gene Chizik just 5-1` vs. line since Cam left campus after 2010 campaign. Auburn also only 3-6 vs. line as dog since. Les Miles 7-1 as road chalk since 2010 and has won and covered 3 of last 4 vs. Auburn. LSU, based on recent team and series trends.

MIAMI-FLORIDA at GEORGIA TECH...Tough matchup last three years for GT as it has been hammered on each occasion by the Canes. Al "Touch of" Golden teams at Temple and Miami are 19-10 as a dog since 2007 (4-2 at Miami). Paul Johnson, however, is 3-0 vs. line TY and 5-1 as home chalk since 2011. Miami-Fla., based on series and Al "Touch of" Golden dog trends.

WYOMING at IDAHO...Robb Akey only 11-18 vs. line at Kibbie Dome (0-1 TY; 7-10 as home dog) since taking over Vandals in 2007. Wyo, however, only 5-15 as chalk since 2007 and 3-8 in role since 2010 (Christensen 0-3 as road chalk since arriving in 2009). Slight to Idaho, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY at FLORIDA...Florida hasn't lost to UK in ages. Romps for Gators vs. Joker the past two years as Gators have also covered last five meetings. Joker just 3-9 vs. line away since taking over Cats in 2010. Muschamp only 3-5 vs. line at Swamp since taking over LY, however. Florida, based on series trends.

UCONN at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Pasqualoni lost this game as home chalk LY. Pasqualoni 2-0-1 vs. line TY, although Huskies only 4-8-1 vs. line away since 2010. Cubit, however, 5-1 vs. line at Waldo Stadium since LY (all as chalk). WMU, based on Waldo marks.

MISSOURI at SOUTH CAROLINA...Tigers' first SEC road game, let's see if this goes better than their first SEC home game. Pinkel was 3-1 as road dog LY but only 6-6 in role since 2007. Spurrier 12-6 vs. line last 18 at Williams-Brice. Rematch of 2-5 Independence Bowl won by Pinkel over Spurrier's first Gamecock team, 38-31. SC, based on recent home mark.

MICHIGAN at NOTRE DAME...Revenge for Irish after wild loss at Ann Arbor LY. Wolverines have won and covered last three and five of last six meetings since 2006. Note ND just 3-6-3 as home chalk for HC Brian Kelly since 2010, and Irish 7-16-3 in role since 2007. Michigan, based on series and team trends.

SYRACUSE at MINNESOTA...Marrone vs. Jerry Kill! Cuse just 4-11 vs. line since LY and 1-5 vs. spread away from Carrier Dome. Since late last season, Jerry Kill 6-1-1 last eight on board. Minnesota, based on recent Jerry Kill marks.

KANSAS STATE at OKLAHOMA...Bill Snyder 6-1 as road dog since 2010, 8-1 last 9 in role since mid 2009. Although he was crushed in home dog role vs. Stoops LY. OU 21-11 as home chalk for Stoops since 2007. K-State, based on Snyder road dog marks.

NEW MEXICO at NEW MEXICO STATE...Land of Dis-enchantment lately for these two. DeWayne Walker 3-0 SU, 2-1 vs. line past three years vs. Lobos, but now he faces Bob Davie. NMSU 5-2 vs. line at Las Cruces since LY, Ags 3-1 in rare chalk role. Slight to NMSU, based on team and recent series trends.

AKRON at TENNESSEE...Terry Bowden faces UT for first time since the '90s! Bowden already 1-0 as road dog for Zips which is an upgrade from the 1-5 in role LY and 4-8 in 200-11 under Rob Ianello. Derek Dooley is 9-5 as chalk with Vols since 2010. Slight to UT, based on team trends.

OLE MISS at TULANE...Hugh "Mr. Pointspread Cover" Freeze now 12-3 vs. line since LY with Ark State & Ole Miss (2-1 with Rebs). Wave got cover for Curtis Johnson in home opener vs. Rutgers but still just 9-22 vs. points at Superdome since 2007. Ole Miss, based on Hugh "Mr. Pointspread Cover" Freeze marks.

LA TECH at ILLINOIS...Sonny Dykes continuing amazing pointspread run in which his La Tech has now covered nine of last ten since early 2011. Dykes also 9-0 vs. spread last nine away! La Tech, based on team trends.

UTAH at ARIZONA STATE...Todd Graham teams 19-10 vs. line since 2010 (Tulsa, Pitt, and ASU, where he's 3-0). Kyle Whittingham 8-15 last 23 on board since late 2010. ASU, based on team trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE...SJSU 3-0 vs. line TY, 9-2 last 11, and 11-3 last 14 on board. MacIntyre 9-2 as dog since LY for Spartans. Rocky Long's extended chalk numbers at UNM & SDSU very so-so (4-7 with Aztecs and 13-21 last 34 including Lobos since late 2004). SJSU, based on team trends.

AIR FORCE at UNLV...Note Bobby Hauck's predictable pattern, he's 9-2 as home dog since taking over Rebs in 2010. Home team has covered last six years in series. UNLV, based on Hauck home dog and series pattern.

NEVADA at HAWAII...Nevada has not won SU vs. Hawaii in Honolulu since the 40s and is 2-7 vs. number last nine at Aloha Stadium (including bowl games, in which it is 1-2 SU and vs. line). Pack did win at this stadium in 2005 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (but no cover vs. UCF). Chris Ault only 3-6 as road chalk since 2010 and 7-15 in role since 2007. Hawaii, based on Pack road chalk woes.

Saturday, Sept. 22 - Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at ALABAMA...Nick 18-8 last 26 laying DD, also 33-16 last 49 on board. FAU 12-21 as road dog since 2007 and 6-13 as DD road dog that span. Bama, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at WESTERN KENTUCKY...Tops riding incredible 12-game cover streak! Ellis Johnson 0-2 vs. line at USM. WKU, based on recent trends.

TROY at NORTH TEXAS...Belt rivals heading opposite directions lately, as Troy 5-10 vs. spread since LY and UNT is 9-4 its last 13 spread decisions since early 2011. UNT, based on recent trends.

LOUISVILLE at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL...Charlie Strong is 11-2 vs. line on road since 2010! But note Mario Cristobal is 7-2 as home dog for FIU since 2007. Slight to Louisville, based on Charlie Strong road marks.

SOUTH ALABAMA at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Dan Mullen 6-2 vs. line at Starkville since 2011. MSU, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Starting QBs ready to go for Missouri-South Carolina

MISSOURI TIGERS (2-1)
at SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (3-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: South Carolina -10½, Total: 48½

Two teams excited to get their starting quarterbacks returning to the field will clash on Saturday afternoon when No. 7 South Carolina hosts Missouri.

The Gamecocks will have Connor Shaw (shoulder) back when they take on the Tigers for the first time ever in the regular season. The Tigers have won both bowl matchups in series history, most recently winning the 2005 Independence Bowl, 38-31. Missouri QB James Franklin (shoulder) is also set to return after missing last week’s 24-20 win over Arizona State when his Tigers forced four turnovers, giving them 10 already this year. South Carolina slapped around ECU and UAB in the past two weeks by a combined score of 97 to 16.

Can South Carolina stay unbeaten with a sizable victory? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Franklin was unable to play in last week’s 24-20 win over Arizona State due to inflammation in his left shoulder. He hopes that his return will give his team that fourth-quarter boost they need, as the Tigers have been outscored 30-0 in the final period of their past two games. Franklin had a strong afternoon in the SEC opener against Georgia two weeks ago (a 41-20 loss), completing 25-of-41 passes for 269 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. He has three quality receivers to lean on, as T.J. Moe, Marcus Lucas and L’Damian Washington all have between 148 and 159 receiving yards this season with one score each. But for Missouri to win this game, RB Kendial Lawrence will need to step up his game. Although he rushed for two scores in the win over ASU, he has a pedestrian 103 yards on 24 carries (4.3 YPC) against his two FBS opponents this year. Missouri’s defense has not only been opportunistic with 10 turnovers forced, but the Tigers have allowed just 291 total YPG (20th in FBS), 2.7 yards per rush (15th in nation) and tallied 27 Tackles for Loss (tied for 6th in FBS).

Although Dylan Thompson has thrown for 507 yards and 5 TD passes in the past two weeks, Shaw gives the Gamecocks a better dual-threat option. Shaw rushed for 92 yards in the season-opening win over Vanderbilt, leading his team to the game-winning touchdown drive in the fourth quarter despite injuring his shoulder that game. After sitting out against East Carolina, Shaw started last week’s 49-6 trouncing of UAB, completing 8-of-14 passes for 107 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT suffering a hairline fracture in his shoulder and missing the second half of action. RB Marcus Lattimore has had an up-and-down season so far, gaining 131 total yards, 48 yards and 89 yards in his three games this season. But he has rushed for 4 TDs already, giving him 31 scores in 23 career games. Defensively, South Carolina has been outstanding in 2012, allowing just 9.7 PPG (7th in nation) and 315 total YPG thanks in part to 12 sacks (tied for 4th in FBS). The Gamecocks will be without starting safety D.J. Swearinger (9 tackles, 1 INT, 1 fumble recovery), who was suspended for one game after a helmet-to-helmet hit last week.

[StarDust Bum]

Top-15 teams clash when KSU visits Oklahoma

KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (3-0)
at OKLAHOMA SOONERS (3-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:50 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma -13½, Total: 58½

No. 8 Oklahoma looks to retain its series dominance over No. 15 Kansas State when the Big 12 schools clash Saturday night in Norman, OK.

The Sooners are 8-1 SU (5-4 ATS) in this series since 2000, scoring a hefty 46.4 PPG during a five-game series win streak. Last year Landry Jones threw for a school-record 505 yards in a 58-17 blowout for Oklahoma, giving him 799 passing yards and 9 TD in two meetings with the Wildcats. KSU’s Collin Klein was held to 58 passing yards in last year’s loss to the Sooners, but he has thrown for 609 yards and run for 210 more with 9 total TD this season. Oklahoma rushed for 8 TD (4 by Damien Williams) in last week’s 69-13 win over Florida A&M, and ranks 11th in the nation in both scoring (46.5 PPG) and total offense (545 YPG).

Will Kansas State be able to keep the score close on Saturday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Since he stumbled against Oklahoma last year, Klein has scored a total of 25 touchdowns in eight games. Klein hasn’t missed many throws in the past two contests, completing 24-of-31 passes (77%) for 440 yards (14.2 YPA), 3 TD and 2 INT. Junior WR Tramaine Thompson has been the top receiver for the Wildcats this year, gaining 211 yards on 13 catches, including three for touchdowns. In addition to Klein’s 210 rushing yards and four scores, the Wildcats have two other players with three rushing touchdowns, John Hubert (296 rush yds, 6.9 YPC) and Daniel Sams (127 rush yds, 12.7 YPC). Hubert ran for 71 yards on 12 carries (5.9 YPC) in the loss to Oklahoma last year. Another big reason this offense is scoring 46.0 PPG (13th in FBS) is due an elite return game. K-State leads the nation with 36.3 yards per punt return and Tyler Lockett ranks second among FBS players in kickoff returns (43.3 yards per return). The K-State defense has allowed just 14.3 PPG this year, but the secondary has given up 251 passing YPG (80th in nation). The Wildcats have also recorded zero sacks of Landry Jones in the two times they’ve faced him.

Jones struggled last season after top receiver Ryan Broyles was injured, and he’s also had to adjust this year without suspended WR Jaz Reynolds. However, Jones and Kenny Stills have certainly been clicking, as Stills has caught 16 passes for 241 yards and 2 TD in just two games. Stills gained 101 yards on four catches against KSU last year. But the Sooners ground game has been even more impressive than the Jones-to-Stills air show. The team ranks 12th in the nation with 277 rushing YPG, thanks to Big 12 rushing leader Damien Williams (130 rushing YPG). The Sooners defense has not been tested yet, as they have allowed just 20 points and rank 10th in FBS in total defense (245 YPG). Oklahoma’s defensive line is tough to penetrate, and despite the Wildcats attempting just 16 passes in last year’s meeting, OU still produced seven sacks. This season, the Sooners have six sacks in their two games.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 11 Notre Dame seeks revenge on No. 18 Michigan

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (2-1)
at NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (3-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Notre Dame -5½, Total: 51

No. 11 Notre Dame looks for its first 4-0 start to a season in 10 years when No. 18 Michigan comes to South Bend for a Saturday night matchup.

Although the Wolverines are 5-1 (SU and ATS) in the past six meetings of this series, the past three matchups -- all Michigan wins -- have each been decided by exactly four points. Denard Robinson compiled 446 total yards and 5 TD in leading the Wolverines to 28 fourth-quarter points in a crazy 35-31 comeback win over Notre Dame last year, throwing a TD pass with two seconds left on the clock. But this season’s Irish defense is much improved, limiting two straight Big Ten opponents (Purdue and Michigan State) to a combined 20 points and 140 rushing yards on 55 carries (2.5 YPC).

Can the Irish avenge last season’s heartbreaking loss to Michigan? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Robinson has scored multiple touchdowns in eight straight games, but he’s also thrown at least one interception in seven of those eight contests. Not only did he explode on the Irish last year, but he also amassed a school-record 502 total yards and scored the game-winning TD run with 27 seconds left in his lone trip to South Bend in 2010, a 28-24 victory. All told, Robinson has 387 rushing yards on 48 carries (8.1 YPC) in his career versus Notre Dame. Junior RB Fitzgerald Toussaint was suspended for the season-opening loss against Alabama and played sparingly against Air Force, but he is finally starting to help this offense again, rushing for 85 yards on 15 carries in the win over UMass. This will be his first career game against the Irish. The passing game has been balanced, as no Michigan player has more than eight receptions. Devin Gardner leads the team with 155 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Although Michigan has been steamrolled on the ground so far, allowing 211 rushing YPG (104th in nation), the Wolverines rank 12th in the nation against the pass (158 YPG). They’d be even greater if they pressured the quarterback more, as Michigan has mustered just three sacks in three games.

Notre Dame will once again start sophomore Everett Golson, despite his 14-of-32 performance at Michigan State last week. Backup QB Tommy Rees is also expected to play though. Rees, who helped lead the Irish to a win over Purdue two weeks ago, played against Michigan last year, completing 27-of-39 throws for 315 yards, 3 TD and 2 INT. Senior RB Cierre Wood also had a big game at Michigan last year with 134 rushing yards and a touchdown. He also looked strong in his season opener last week, gaining 56 yards on just 10 carries in East Lansing. Although Notre Dame’s defense has been outstanding with 10.0 PPG allowed (8th in FBS) and 289 total YPG allowed (18th in nation), it will not have starting safety Jamoris Slaughter, who tore his left Achilles tendon last week. The Irish have 11 sacks already this year, led by Stephon Tuitt’s five sacks, and they have forced seven turnovers in the three games.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 4 FSU hosts No. 10 Clemson Saturday night

CLEMSON TIGERS (3-0)
at FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (3-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Florida State -14, Total: 57

Two of the top-10 teams in the nation open their conference schedule Saturday night when No. 4 Florida State hosts No. 10 Clemson.

The home team has come out on top nine times out of 10 in this series, but Clemson is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings with FSU. Last year the Tigers won 35-30 as Tajh Boyd threw for 344 yards and scored four times, including 2 TD passes to Sammy Watkins who had 141 receiving yards. Boyd has 822 total yards and 6 TD so far this season despite not having Watkins for two of those games. ‘Noles QB EJ Manuel did not play against the Tigers last year, but he has seven total TD this year as FSU has outscored its opponents by an astounding 176 to 3 margin.

Will Florida State win another blowout on Saturday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Boyd has gotten better in each game this season, throwing for 208 yards against Auburn, 229 versus Ball State and 310 last week against Furman. In these past two wins, he’s completed 39-of-52 passes (75%), while rushing just eight times, 11 fewer than he did in the season opener. Boyd’s favorite target has been DeAndre Hopkins, who has 26 catches for 319 yards and 4 TD in the three games. Watkins was suspended for the first two contests and returned to post a pedestrian four catches for 52 yards in the 41-7 drubbing of Furman last week. But the reason Clemson has won three straight ATS versus Florida State is because the Tigers have dominated on the ground, outrushing the ‘Noles 504-254 in these past three meetings. Andre Ellington leads the ACC with 328 rushing yards, scoring 4 TD and gaining 6.2 yards per carry. He rushed for 71 yards and a touchdown in last year’s win over FSU, but it took him 23 carries (3.1 YPC) to produce those numbers. On the defensive side of the ball, Clemson has given up just 17.7 PPG and 188 passing YPG, but the run defense has been burned for 181 rushing YPG (84th in nation). Also, the Tigers have a paltry three sacks in three games.

FSU has put forth a balanced offensive attack with 279 rushing YPG (11th in FBS) and 265 passing YPG. Senior RB Chris Thompson rushed for 197 yards and two touchdowns on just nine carries (21.9 YPC) against Wake Forest last week, but was held to 36 yards on 11 carries (3.3 YPC) in the loss to Clemson in 2011. The last time Manuel faced the Tigers was in 2010, when he threw for 210 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT in a 16-13 win. He has been very efficient in the passing game in the past two contests, completing 26-of-37 passes for 337 yards (9.1 YPA), 5 TD and 0 INT. The defense has been unbelievable in all facets, leading the nation in scoring defense (1.0 PPG) and total defense (103 YPG), while dialing up 11 sacks, 6½ of those by star DE Bjoern Werner.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 24 Boise State hosts BYU on Thursday

BYU COUGARS (2-1)
at BOISE STATE BRONCOS (1-1)

Kickoff: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Boise State -7½, Total: 48½

Two non-BCS powers clash Thursday night on the blue turf when BYU visits No. 24 Boise State, in search of a 19th straight home victory in September.

BYU is coming off a 24-21 loss to rival Utah in a game it allowed just 245 total yards. The Cougars defense ranks in the nation’s top 10 in total yards (241 YPG), rushing yards (53 YPG), sacks (4.3 per game) and Tackles For Loss (9.0 per game). Boise State had just 206 total yards in a loss to Michigan State, but rolled up 599 yards in last week’s 39-12 pounding of Miami Ohio. The last game between these two was in 2004, when Boise barely held on to win 28-27.

Can Boise State win comfortably over a strong BYU team? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

The Cougars are reeling after nearly pulling off a stunning comeback in Utah last week. Trailing 24-7 entering the fourth quarter, BYU scored two touchdowns and had a chance to send the game into overtime with a 51-yard field goal. That kick was blocked, but after a premature celebration penalty on the Utes, the Cougars had another chance from 36 yards out, but that kick hit the upright, giving Utah the 24-21 victory. QB Riley Nelson did a nice job in the fourth quarter, but finished the wild game just 17-of-35 for 206 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. Junior WR Cody Hoffman posted his second straight 100-yard receiving game with 120 yards and a touchdown on eight catches. BYU rushed for a mere 106 yards on 42 carries (2.5 YPC) against Utah and was fortunate that only one of five fumbles resulted in a turnover. The Cougars also committed 12 penalties costing them 75 yards. BYU’s defense played very well though, holding Utah to 245 total yards, including 49 rushing yards on 35 carries (1.4 YPC). LBs Kyle Van Noy and Spencer Hadley, who have combined for eight sacks this year, will try to disrupt Boise’s passing attack.

Boise State really cranked up its ground game last week against Miami Ohio, churning out 295 yards on 45 carries (6.6 YPC). D.J. Harper rushed for 162 of those yards and scored four total touchdowns, both career highs. That was quite an improvement from his paltry eight yards on 15 carries in the 17-13 season-opening loss to Michigan State. Broncos QB Joe Southwick also played great against the RedHawks, completing 24-of-31 passes (77%) for 304 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. A lot of the credit for the success of these two players goes to a Boise offensive line that has not allowed a single sack in two games. Defensively, the Broncos are already ahead of where they projected to be, allowing just 14.5 PPG (tops in Mountain West) and 351.5 total YPG (2nd in MWC).

[StarDust Bum]

BYU at Boise State

September 19, 2012

Not long ago everyone was looking forward to annual battles between BYU and Boise State as the Broncos were tabbed to join the Mountain West. That finally occurred last season but the Cougars opted to move to independent status. The Broncos are now again on their way out, heading to the Big East but these successful programs come together for an intriguing Thursday night ESPN match-up this week, starting a series that is scheduled to play each of the next 11 seasons.

Matchup: BYU Cougars at Boise State Broncos
Venue: Bronco Stadium, Boise, Idaho (Blue AstroPlay)
Date: Thursday, September 20, 2012
Time/TV: 9:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Boise State -7½, Over/Under 49.5
Last Meeting: 2004, Boise State (-22) 28-27 at Boise

Among teams that are currently outside of the realm of the six automatic-qualifier conferences it is hard to find teams that have been more successful in recent years than BYU and Boise State. BYU has an illustrious history and won the national championship in 1984, while also seeing several NFL greats go through the program over the years. Boise State’s history is much more recent as they did not move to the Division I-A level until 1996 but an empire has been built on the blue turf with incredible results in recent years, including finishing with one or zero losses in eight of the last 10 seasons. Both teams enter this game sitting with a loss already so a somewhat disappointing season will already be clinched for the loser.

Bronco Mendenhall is now in his eighth season as the head coach at BYU with his roots coming at New Mexico under current San Diego State Head Coach Rocky Long. He is a great offensive mind and his teams have averaged over 32 points per game over the last seven years. After a very slow start last season with the Cougars losing two of the first three games and scoring just 40 points, he made some scheme changes and switched quarterbacks. The Cougars cruised the rest of the season, only losing in a tight game with TCU to finish 10-3 after winning the Armed Forces Bowl. This season opened with a dominant win over Washington State in a hyped opening game that featured the return of Mike Leach to the sidelines. BYU disposed of Weber State in week 2 but last week lost at nearby rival Utah, burned by turnovers early and missing two late kicks with a chance to tie the game in a wild finish. It will be difficult to bounce back from such an emotional game on a short week, playing on the road again.

Other offers have come his way but Boise State head coach Chris Peterson seems content to stay in Boise and add to his remarkable 75-7 career record. Moving to the Big East next season will create some challenging situations but it will also bring a bit more exposure and opportunity to the program. Boise State has one of the most unique home fields in college football with the bright blue turf and the home record under Peterson is amazing at 38-1, the lone loss coming by one-point last season against TCU. Boise State has opened the season with a marquee national game each of the last four years including this season. The previous three years the Broncos escaped with wins over ranked teams, beating Oregon, Virginia Tech, and Georgia. This season Boise State had a great opportunity to steal a win at Michigan State but they came up just short. The Broncos were severely out-gained in that match-up and it might be tough for this team the rest of the way playing with the goal of being undefeated and moving into a BCS bowl position out the window.

Riley Nelson is not the conventional BYU quarterback as he lacks the arm strength of the some of the past BYU greats and he rushed for nearly 400 yards last season. Nelson was far more successful than top recruit Jake Heaps as the Cougars played much better after he took over last season. Nelson struggled last week as the Utah defense did a great job bottling up the run and it forced Nelson into some bad throws. The offense was sloppy as a whole in that game with three first half fumbles that were recovered but in the 3rd quarter a fumble was recovered by Utah and returned for a 47-yard touchdown, a turning point in a game that was 10-7 before that play. The key for the Cougars will be getting some success on the ground behind junior running back Michael Alisa, which can open up the passing game for Nelson.

Boise State is also a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. Senior running back D.J. Harper is one of the few returning stars from last year’s team and he had a tough time in the opener against Michigan State before finding great success last week against Miami, Ohio. The passing game opened up behind junior Joe Southwick who looked much more comfortable as he attempts to replace Boise State legend Kellen Moore. This is very inexperienced Boise State team as a whole but the offensive line did return three starters and most of the receiving corps has at least some experience.

On defense BYU was dominant against Washington State, allowing just six points. BYU has allowed just 43 points in three games and last week Utah only had 245 yards despite beating the Cougars. BYU returned seven starters from a team that allowed just 20.4 points per game last season and allowed only 313 yards per game on the season. The top five leading tacklers from last season are playing for BYU this year but it will be tough to match the numbers of the 2011 season as this year the schedule is much more difficult.

Boise State returned just two starters from last season on defense and it showed in the opening loss at Michigan State as the Broncos allowed 461 yards including 213 rushing yards. The Boise State defense did create four turnovers however and that allowed the game to stay close late. Last week against Miami Boise State allowed just 227 yards and adjustments were made against the run as the Broncos held the Redhawks to just 49 rushing yards, averaging just 2.1 yards per carry.

The experience edge for BYU should allow the Cougars to compete in this game in this very tough environment but last week BYU did not look like a veteran team as many critical mistakes dug a hole that was too deep to climb back from. Boise State is not the same team of past years but with the schedule ahead another one-loss season is more than possible, with this being one of the biggest hurdles on that quest. On the field turnovers and the ability to run the ball should decide the game but the emotional state of both squads has to be questioned as well. BYU is coming off a wild rivalry game and now facing another road game on a short week while Boise State is playing with much lower stakes than in past seasons with a very young an unproven group of players.

Line Movement: Initial offerings priced this game with Boise State as a -7 favorite, some outlets requiring additional juice at -120. The line moved to -7.5 universally by Wednesday morning. The total opened at 48 and has slowly climbed over the relatively key numbers of 48 and 49. Boise State is priced around -300 (Bet $300 to win $100) on the money-line.

Last Meeting: In 2004 Boise State opened the year 3-0 coming off a 13-1 2003 season with the lone loss coming at Oregon State. Hosting BYU as -22 favorites Boise State managed to win with a late field goal, coming back from a late 27-16 deficit. In that season BYU opened the year with a 20-17 win over Notre Dame but then was blown out in back-to-back games losing at Stanford 37-10 and then hosting #1 USC and losing 42-10. BYU out-gained Boise State 415-399 in the game and won the turnover battle 2-0. Neither team rushed the ball well in the game and while a lot has changed with these teams, running the ball will likely be the key to this year’s match-up as well.

Series History: Provo is less than 400 miles from Boise but these teams have met just twice with Boise State winning 50-12 at home in 2003 and sneaking away with a 28-27 win at BYU in 2004. This is the first meeting of a 12-year agreement to play annually.

BYU Historical Trends: Since Bronco Mendenhall took over BYU is 24-15 S/U in road games, going 7-6-1 ATS as an underdog. BYU is 8-4-1 ATS overall as an underdog of 7 or more since 2005 including cashing in each of the last four instances. Since 1980 BYU is 30-21-3 as a road underdog and 52-40-4 as an underdog in any venue. BYU has been an undervalued team in recent years in part due to often losing games early in the season, as BYU has gone 24-15 ATS the last three seasons combined. Under Mendenhall BYU is 14-8 S/U coming off a S/U loss but just 11-10 ATS in those games.

Boise State Historical Trends: Boise State is an amazing 45-26-2 ATS at home since 1999 and almost all of those games came playing as a favorite. Overall under Chris Peterson Boise State is 45-29-3 ATS but just 17-16-2 ATS at home. Value has caught up to Boise State on the blue turf as Boise State is just 4-11 ATS as a home favorite since late 2009. This game will feature the lowest home favorite spread for Boise State since opening the 2009 season against Oregon however. Since 2000 Boise State has only four times not been favored by more than seven points, going 3-0 ATS in the games as slight favorites and losing S/U and ATS in the lone instance as an underdog (Washington State in 2001).

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NCAAF

Thursday, September 20

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What bettors need to know: BYU at Boise State
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BYU at Boise State (-7.5, 52)

Beating Boise State on the blue turf in September is about as rare as a blue steak. The last time anyone did it was 2001 - a string of 18 games and nearly three presidential terms. The Broncos are expecting a record crowd in a newly remodeled stadium in what will be the second road game in a row for BYU in a tough environment after the Cougars visited Utah last week.

TV: ESPN, 9 p.m. ET

LINE: Boise State -7.5, O/U 49.

WEATHER: The offenses won't have any excuses Thursday. It's expected to be a clear night in the mid-50's in Boise with little wind.

ABOUT BYU: The Cougars insist they've moved on from a heartbreaking 24-21 loss last week against rival Utah that ended with some strange time-on-the-clock issues and the shifty - BYU fans would say dodgy - play of Utah's defensive line. BYU will lean on its stingy defense Thursday. Their defense ranks ninth in the country in yards against (241 per game) and 20th in points allowed (14.3 per game). The over/under is 1-1 through three games with BYU (one game had no line) but the 'over' toppled the total by just a half point against Utah. QB Riley Nelson has shown signs of suffering from a back injury and is coming off a 17-of-35 passing performance.

ABOUT BOISE STATE: This is arguably Boise State's toughest remaining game on the schedule. If you ask their supporters, a win here sets them up in decent shape for an 11-1 season, which could give them a legit shot at a BCS bowl game. To do that, they'll likely need to be a little better in the red zone where they're just 66.7 percent so far - uncharacteristic for a typically high-octane Broncos team. Boise State is 1-1 but has covered both spreads so far. Both their games have also played under thanks to a defense that's allowed only 29 points. Dangerous tailback D.J. Harper faces a BYU rush defense that ranks sixth in the country.

TRENDS:
Cougars are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Broncos are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Boise State coach Chris Peterson is 19-1 straight up in September.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Broncos defensive end Sam Ukwuachu said this week if there's one thing Boise State can do it's rush the QB. That will be a key to this game against BYU's Nelson, who has struggled under pressure this season.

2. The Broncos are tied for fifth in the nation with three penalties per game.

3. BYU QB Riley Nelson started at Boise State as a freshman for Utah State. He was yanked after rushing for 45 yards and passing for 40. The Aggies lost 49-10, but salvaged a 'push' as 39-point dogs.

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Thursday, September 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Brigham Young - 9:00 PM ET Brigham Young +6.5 500

Boise State - Under 49 500

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Friday's game
Sun Belt underdogs are stunning 11-3 vs spread as non-conference dog in 2012; this is rare chance for UL-Monroe to host a BCS team, much less play them on national TV. ULM has never had a winning season at I-A level, but in last two weeks, they split pair of OT decisions at Arkansas/ Auburn, games that had total yardage of 557-376 ULM, then 418-410 Auburn, so Warhawks more than held their own both games. Baylor is on road for first time this year; they won first two home games, allowing 918 yards to Sam Houston State/SMU, so they're still trying to outscore people. Big X favorites are 7-5 vs spread, 2-2 on road. Baylor has a new QB, but he's a senior with 9 starts. ULM's QB is making his 27th career start; Warhawks are 8-14-1 as home underdog, Baylor 5-2 as road fave.

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NCAAF

Friday, September 21

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What bettors need to know: Baylor at UL Monroe
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Baylor at Louisiana-Monroe (7, 69.5)

Arkansas and to a lesser degree Auburn both found out that Louisiana-Monroe is a bottom-tier FBS team only when it comes to its bottom line, and the Warhawks’ most anticipated home opener in years will help in that category. Kolton Browning and Louisiana-Monroe will host their first Big 12 opponent Friday as Baylor puts its eight-game winning streak on the line at Malone Stadium. The Warhawks, the biggest surprise of the season thus far, rallied from a three-touchdown deficit to beat then-No. 8 Arkansas 34-31 in overtime Sept. 8, and took Auburn to overtime before losing 31-28 last week. The Bears, in transition after losing Heisman trophy winner Robert Griffin III to the NFL, should be wary after struggling with FCS foe Sam Houston State for a half Saturday.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Baylor -7, O/U 69.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high 70s with clear skies at James L. Monroe Stadium. Winds will be light out of the south.

ABOUT BAYLOR (2-0): After a week off, the Bears looked flat and trailed 20-10 at the half against Sam Houston State before awakening from their daze. Griffin III’s replacement, senior Nick Florence, passed for 312 yards and three touchdowns, helping Baylor outscore the Bearkats 38-3 in the second half en route to a 48-23 victory. Florence also ran for 80 yards - including a key 60-yard scamper that set up Glasco Martin’s go-ahead score. Florence has completed 63.4 percent (45-of-71) of his attempts for 653 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. He has been connecting with senior Terrance Williams (13 catches, 269 yards, two touchdowns) often. Meanwhile, the defense, which ranked 116th (out of 120 FBS teams), forced four turnovers last week.

ABOUT LOUISIANA-MONROE (1-1): The Warhawks haven’t had a winning season since joining the FBS in 1994, but early indications suggest this could be the year. Browning’s game-winning touchdown run against Arkansas vaulted them into the national consciousness and last week’s effort against Auburn proved it wasn’t a fluke. Browning (649 yards, six touchdowns, one interception) passed for 237 yards and three touchdowns, two of which game in the final seven minutes, but Louisiana-Monroe had a field goal blocked in overtime. Louisiana-Monroe’s defense needs a better effort after giving up 255 rushing yards to Auburn.

TRENDS:
*Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
*Warhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
*Over is 4-0 in Bears’ last four non-conference games.
*Over is 4-0 in Warhawks’ last four non-conference games.

EXTRA POINTS

1. “We went sent a message out that last week wasn't a fluke taking our second SEC opponent in a row to overtime," Warhawks’ redshirt freshman tight end Harley Scioneaux on the loss to Auburn.

2. Baylor’s eight-game winning streak is the second longest in the nation behind TCU (10).

3. Louisiana-Monroe sold an additional 16,000 tickets for its home opener after beating Arkansas.