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**StarDust Bum** · 08-28-2012, 01:36 PM

Games to Watch - Week 1

August 26, 2012

Thursday - South Carolina at Vanderbilt (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)

Matchup Skinny

Until last season, if you were born in the nineties you were probably unaware that there was actually a time South Carolina didn't play on Thursday nights on ESPN to open its season. Well, The "Ole' Ball Coach" and South Carolina are back where they belong opening the college football season on the Thursday night ESPN game. The million dollar question for South Carolina fans is the recovery of running back Marcus Lattimore's knee, not only for this game but for the season. To expect him to be at full strength only nine months after such a severe injury is a little unrealistic, but this is the SEC and no one there cares about realistic scenarios. South Carolina also lost some key play-makers on both sides of the ball including 15-year QB Stephen Garcia. Throw a new defensive coordinator in the mix and there are a lot of questions to answer for South Carolina. South Carolina's talent is simply far superior to Vanderbilt. However, under head coach James Franklin, Vandy made the school's fifth bowl game ever in 2011 and return 18 starters. None more important than Aaron Rodgers little brother, Jordan Rodgers. With that said, Jordan seems to be making a name for himself as he has improved with each game over his career. There is no doubt that this game is a much bigger deal to Vanderbilt playing at home where they were extremely competitive in 2011, than it will be to South Carolina.

Friday - Boise State at Michigan State (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Matchup Skinny

Everyone's favorite underdog is back again, this time Boise State is opening the season against another BCS heavyweight. This is Boise State's final season as a non-BCS football school before they move to the Big East. But that's another argument for another day. The bad news is that the Broncos lost their quarterback (Kellen Moore) to the NFL, but all he did was win more NCAA games than any quarterback in history. The good news for the boys in blue is that new starter Joe Southwick should be able to step right in to Chris Petersen's system. In fact, both teams lost their starting quarterback from last year. While Michigan State doesn't have the system to plug a QB into and be as successful as quickly, they do have an offensive line that might be the best, and most experienced, in the Big 10 and that could prove to be a problem for Boise with RB LeVeon Bell in the backfield. Throw in a solid defensive line for Sparty, led by William Gholston. He loves taking down QB's and it might make for a long day in East Lansing. But before you write off Boise St again, they are 7-1 against BCS schools since 2006, which is very tough to overlook.

Saturday - Alabama vs. Michigan from Arlington, Texas (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Matchup Skinny

The best the SEC has to offer against the best the Big 10 has to offer. We've seen this movie play out countless times over the last 10 years and it usually ends poorly for the Big 10. It's like going to see Titanic and hoping they don't hit the iceberg this time. Brady Hoke has done a great job turning Michigan around in his short time. Last year the Wolverines won 11 games, including a Sugar Bowl win over Virginia Tech. But Hoke is not Nick Saban and Michigan just doesn't have speed, strength, depth or the talent that Alabama does. However, Michigan does have a few things going in their favor. Alabama did lose quite a bit of talent on the defensive side, and while they will simply replace them with even more talent, they are still young and this is the first week. For that reason and that reason only I think Big Blue QB Denard Robinson will actually be able to give a young, inexperienced Alabama defense some problems. If this game was being played Jan. 1 instead of Sept. 1, I think this would get really ugly for the Maze and Blue. But because it is being played in September I think this could be a more entertaining game. If Robinson has success early and often throwing down field on the young 'Bama secondary they could shock the world, if he doesn't this could ugly.

Other Games to Watch

Matchup Skinny

College football officially welcomes back "The Pirate" on Thursday night…and all that comes with him. When we last saw Mike Leach on the sidelines he was almost as quotable as Muhammad Ali and his QB's were putting up PlayStation like numbers. The person hasn't changed, but the team and the talent level has. Leach is inheriting a Washington State team that went 4-8 in 2011; however they were 9th overall in passing yards and 45th overall in points scored. Look for senior QB Jeff Tuel and explosive WR Marquess Wilson to have a big game and a big season under Mike Leach. As a two-touchdown underdog against a BYU team that won 10 games last year it might be a little much to expect a Week 1 victory for Leach, but you can at least count on being entertained both on the field, and definitely off.

(Game Played at Dublin, Ireland) Notre Dame against Navy doesn't exactly make you want to jump out of bed first thing Saturday morning and turn on the TV, but the fact that they are playing in Ireland does make this game fairly significant. Even with suspended QB Tommy Rees, Notre Dame is still a 17-point favorite over a Navy squad that is without their top two offensive weapons from 2011, Kriss Proctor and Alexander Teich. Throw in an already suspect Navy defense (ranked 86th in 2011) and it really won't matter who is under center for Notre Dame (Everett Golson named starter). The only mystery in this game is what quarter Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly will have his first coaching aneurism of 2012.
at Another Week 1 game that will have national attention and not necessarily for the outcome or its significance on the 2012 college football landscape. For the first time in 46 years Penn State will take the field without Joe Paterno as its head football coach. The Bill O'Brien era starts off not only among turmoil off the field but without two of their best offensive players in running back Silas Redd and receiver Justin Brown who transferred after the NCAA ruling that allowed them to play immediately at a new school. PSU still remains a six-point favorite though against a formidable Ohio team that won 10 games last year. And the Bobcats return 14 starters, including quarterback Tyler Tettleton. Win or lose, the fact that the Nittany Lions are back playing football in Happy Valley is a good thing for every in and around that program.

(Game Played at Atlanta, Georgia) This is the second best the ACC has to offer behind Virginia Tech against the 7th or 8th best team the SEC has to offer and the line is only a field goal. Clemson's QB, Tajh Boyd is the key to this game. If he plays like he did to start 2011, then the Tigers should be fine. If he plays the way he ended 2011, they are in trouble. The bad news for Tajh is that he'll be without wide receiver Sammy Watkins (suspension) and his young offensive line is going up against arguably the best defensive end in the SEC, Corey Lemonier. That matchup will probably decide this game, and quite frankly, this is a must-win game for the ACC.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-28-2012, 01:40 PM

Tennessee vs. N.C. St.

August 27, 2012

Tennessee returns to the Georgia Dome this Friday night for the first time since getting hammered 37-14 by Virginia Tech in the 2009 Chick-fil-A Bowl on New Year’s Eve. The Volunteers are hoping for much different results when they take on North Carolina St. in a crucial season opener for both teams.

As of Monday, most betting shops had UT listed as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 53. Gamblers can take the Wolfpack to win outright for a plus-150 payout (risk $100 to win $150).

Derek Dooley is on the hot seat going into his third campaign in Knoxville. Whether that’s fair or not is irrelevant because it’s undoubtedly a fact. I went into this topic at great length earlier this summer.

Dooley announced the dismissal of starting junior wide receiver Da’Rick Rogers last Friday. Rogers, who had reportedly been a major headache for Dooley and his staff for an extended period of time, had a team-high 67 receptions for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns last season.

Nevertheless, some feel as if this is an addition-by-subtraction situation. That’s because the Vols have junior WR Justin Hunter back in the mix. Hunter was poised for a breakout campaign last year before tearing his ACL in the first half of a Week 3 game at Florida.

In wins over Montana and Cincinnati and early on against the Gators, Hunter hauled in 17 catches for 314 yards and a pair of TDs. By all accounts, he’s back to 100 percent which means he’s going to be one of the SEC’s top wideouts. Also, the top recruit in UT’s 2012 class, juco transfer Cordarrelle Patterson, has been ‘as advertised’ so far.

Hunter’s injury wasn’t the only one to impact UT’s disappointing 5-7 record last year. QB Tyler Bray injured his thumb in a 20-12 home loss to Georgia and then missed five consecutive contests.

Bray finished 2011 with 17 TD passes compared to only six interceptions. For his career, he has a 35/16 TD-INT ratio.

The junior signal caller should have more time to throw this season. A young and inexperienced offensive line struggled mightily in 2011 but all five starters return, and this is now a unit with three juniors and a senior.

North Carolina St. is my sleeper team in the ACC (FSU better be on upset alert Oct. 6!). While Russell Wilson was lighting it up for Wisconsin last year, Mike Glennon was enjoying plenty of success in Raleigh, too. In other words, Wilson’s exit worked out for everybody.

Glennon went 8-5 in the first 13 starts of his career, throwing for 3,054 yards with a 31/12 TD-INT ratio. The offense has seven starters returning, including RB James Washington, who rushed for 897 yards and seven TDs last year. The offensive line is a veteran group with 112 career starts between them.

Glennon’s favorite target is expected to be senior WR Tobais Palmer, who had 37 catches for 496 yards and five TDs in 2011. Bryan Underwood (16 catches, 226 yards and 2 TDs LY) was expected to be one of the three starting WRs, but he’s out indefinitely with a knee injury.

N.C. St. has six starters back on a defense that surrendered 24.7 points per game. Senior safety Earl Wolff is the best of the bunch, coming off a season with 113 tackles and three interceptions.

The Vols have nine starters back on a defensive unit that gave up 22.6 PPG in 2011.

Kick-off in Atlanta on Friday is slated for 7:30 p.m. Eastern. ESPNU will provide television coverage.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Clemson second-string RB Mike Bellamy has been suspended for the entire season for academics. The sophomore rushed for three TDs and averaged 6.0 yards per carry on 57 totes as a true freshman in 2011.

--Boise St. starting WR Geraldo Boldewijn has been suspended for the first four games of the year and won’t play Friday night in East Lansing. Also, Chris Petersen’s team will be without starting center Cory Yriarte, who is done for the season with a knee injury. Without those two starters, the Broncos have just five returning starters (3 on offense, 2 on defense). They are seven-point underdogs at Michigan St. ESPN will have television coverage of this game at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

--Ohio, which opens the year Saturday at Penn St. in a very winnable game, has lost second-team All-MAC performer Travis Carrie for an indefinite period of time (possibly the season). The senior CB had 49 tackles, 13 passes broken up and four interceptions in 2011.

--Texas A&M has suspended starting safety Howard Matthews and starting LB Steve Jenkins (61 tackles LY) for Thursday’s opener at La. Tech.

--Oklahoma has lost a pair of starting offensive linemen for the season, senior center Ben Habern (retired due to shoulder and neck issues) and senior OG Tyler Evans (torn ACL). The Sooners open Saturday at UTEP as 31-point favorites.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-28-2012, 01:45 PM

Top 25 Notebook

August 28, 2012

Here is a current list of every injury/suspension/transfer at every FBS school since the end of last season. These updates should be used in conjunction with any preseason magazines or websites you reference to finalize your thoughts on each team because there are a number of significant changes to starters and depth charts listed below. This information will impact your team power ratings, the returning starters magazines/websites list, and will help you get a leg up on Vegas when deciding on your picks or fantasy selections. They are listed in order of the AP Top 25 preseason rankings.

Southern California

USC has lost a pair of DL for basically the season, a position they could ill afford to lose both a starter and a Fr who was expected to provide quality depth. Starting DE Kennard tore his pectoral muscle and is listed out until at least November. The Sr has been playing a ton since coming to LA, and his absence will be huge since there is limited experience behind him. In addition, the Trojans also lost Fr Wilson, who was expected to provide quality depth and be a nice part of the rotation.

Alabama

Starting RB Lacy is listed as questionable for the opener with knee and ankle injuries. The team is deep at RB with numerous VHT's just awaiting their opportunity so although Lacy is the starter, I do not expect a big drop off in production or any issues with depth should he miss any time.

LSU

The Tigers lost CB Tyrann Mathieu for the season, a big concern not only because he obviously is one of the more dynamic defensive players in NCAAF, but they had already lost a pair of CBs from LY's team. Looks like a bunch of RFR will be stepping in and playing significant roles they may not have before this suspension. On top of the fact LSU lost 2 CBs due to graduation/NFL draft after LY and the loss of Tyrann Mathieu in August, the Tigers have also lost So CB Vinson, who played in 10 games over the L2Y's. It is getting extremely thin in the LSU secondary, particularly at CB, and this position warrants extra evaluation prior to the start of the season by checking the updated depth chart - especially with the fun and gun high octane passing attack of Washington coming to Death Valley in Wk2.

Oklahoma

The Sooners have been hit very hard with injuries and suspensions so far prior to the season, especially on offense. Here are all the issues offensively:

They have lost a pair of Sr starting OL for the season. C Habern has been forced to retire from the game due to lingering neck and shoulder issues. RG Evans tore his ACL in camp and will miss the entire season. Evans was HM AB12 LY, and combined with the loss of Habern makes the OU OL that I had ranked as Top 5 in NCAAF significantly worse. That leaves the OL with only 2 returning starters from LY (also lost LT Stephenson), and their career games started drops from 102 to 43! Their replacements have yet to be named, but rest assured they will be a significant drop-off - maybe not so much talent wise as it is Oklahoma, and they recruit talented players across the board - but losing ~60 career starts plus Stephenson is a big hit to the chances OU finally makes it back to the BCS Championship game. As a footnote to the OL, the Sooners also lost 3RD string LT RFr Dismuke due to a knee injury which has forced him to transfer. By itself that is not a huge loss, but depth wise, when considering all the OL is currently going through, it is a loss that must be mentioned.

A pair of WRs will also miss time. Starter Jr Jaz Reynolds will miss multiple games due to a suspension, while the #1 backup Jr Trey Franks is also suspended for multiple games. It has not been announced how many games or which games these players will miss, but it will definitely be a big hit to their passing game when they are out. Considering they open @ UTEP then host Florida A&M before a bye week followed by their B12 opener vs. Kansas State, I expect both players to be in the lineup vs. KST, possibly for the first time all season. As a footnote to the WR corps, Fresno St transfer Jalen Saunders still has not been given the OK by the NCAA to participate in games this season. Saunders is attempting to get the mandatory 1 year sit out period waived due to personal issues, so keep an eye on this. In addition, WR Jackson has been dismissed from the team following off the field issues. He caught 12 passes LY and was expected to see a slight increase in PT this season. While neither of those guys was expected to make a huge splash in a deep and talented WR corps, they would certainly provide depth.

Defensively Oklahoma has two issues of note. Backup Sr DT McGee has been suspended, just like the WRs mentioned above, and his status is unknown but he will be in the lineup after at worst missing a few games. He is projected as the #3 DT in the rotation for 2 spots. Backup So SS Hayes has also been suspended like McGee. He is the only backup S that has extensive experience, which will leave the secondary a little thin to start the season.

Oregon

Ducks backup WR Sr Hoffman has retired from football and will join the coaching staff for this season. This is not a huge blow for a deep and talented WR corps as he was slated on the 3rd team.

Georgia

The Bulldogs will not have starting OLB Vasser & starting CB Commings for the first two games due to suspension. The Sr CB Commings started all 14 games LY and is the bigger loss of the two, while Jr Vasser only started 3 but played in 12. There is plenty of returning experience to fill the LB hole, but concerns are rampant in the secondary especially with a road trip to new SEC member Missouri on the docket for Wk2.

Starting RT Houston still has issues with the NCAA in his attempt to return from taking a banned substance that cost him all of 2011. The So's status is unknown and warrants continued attention; there is little to no experience amongst the backup OT's, so any extended absence, especially if it continues through September 8 when the Dawgs travel to Mizzou, will have a huge impact on the OL.

So CB Harrow and So RB Crowell have both been dismissed from GEORGIA for violating team policy. The loss of Crowell is massive, as he is one of the most skilled RBs in the country; there is experience however to replace him, but they will not be as dynamic. Harrow's loss will not be that impactful, however, early in the season when there are a few players out of the lineup due to suspensions, his absence will be felt some from a depth perspective.

A pair of incoming Fr DL for GEORGIA has failed to qualify academically and will attend prep school for a year to get their grades in order. Although the pair is talented, UGA already features one of the best DLs in the country, so their delayed joining of the team will not be felt at all.

Florida State

Fr RB Pender, a 5* recruit, has a serious groin injury that will force him to redshirt in '12. The Noles still have starter Freeman and backup Wilder active, so although early in the season this injury may not have much of an impact, as the season goes on and the RB corps gets banged up, his absence will impact the depth of the unit. Sr Chris Thompson will slide up the depth chart into the #3 spot, and will likely see carries this year.

RFr DT Mitchell has a lower back disc injury and is out about 8 weeks. Although the youngster is talented, he would not be leaned on much this season as FSU already boasts one of the best DLs in the country.

Greg Reid, the All Star CB/PR has been dismissed from the team for violating team rules. This is a big blow to the special teams unit of the Noles, along with impacting a pass defense that severely underachieved LY considering all the individual talent it possesses. Taking into consideration FSU lost a CB who had 6 starts LY to graduation, and the CB spot opposite Jr Rhodes is a question mark right now. FSU has a ton of talent amongst the backups in the secondary, but experience will be an issue - look for So Waisome to take over the vacated gig. As mentioned Reid was an AS KR/PR, which will be sorely missed - the staff is still deciding on who will take over those roles.

Michigan

Starting RB Touissant is listed as questionable for the opener vs. Alabama because of a DUI arrest earlier this offseason. This situation warrants close monitoring as he was a huge surprise impact RB last year for the Wolverines, and although RBs Smith and Rawls feel they are ready to be the main guy, FT is a key piece of the Wolverines offense that must be working close to full throttle vs. the Tide to have any chance at coming out with an upset win. Starting WR Roundtree is questionable for Wk1 vs. Alabama. He had surgery earlier in August, and although he is expected to be in the lineup, it remains uncertain at this point.

Fr DT Pipkins is recovering from a neck injury and is listed as questionable to start the season. The Wolverines lost a lot of man power on the DL from LY, and Pipkins has the size and talent to potentially be a part of the rotation - maybe not to start the season, but by October it should certainly happen. Even if he misses early action his loss will not have a profound impact on the Michigan defense.

South Carolina

RB Lattimore looks very good little lingering issues from his ACL last season. I think he will be fine and have a monster season. RB continues to be an area surrounded by question marks. Lattimore has looked fine in camp with only a little lingering issues showing up from his torn ACL, but keep in mind he is still coming back from a serious knee injury that was suffered less than a year ago.

In addition, RB Wilds, LY's #2 rusher among RBs, is listed as doubtful for their opener at VANDERBILT with an ankle injury. What's still more, 4th string RB Carson is out with a wrist injury that recently required surgery. Lastly, as far as RBs go, two incoming Fr will also not be available this year. That leaves SCAR with a non 100% Lattimore, and Sr Kenny Miles for the tough road opener at conference foe and possibly sleeper Vandy. This position is definitely something to keep an eye on as the Gamecocks rely on their rushing attack offensively - they finished #95th in the country in passing yards, and lost their better passing QB Garcia, along with NFL draft pick Alshon Jeffery.

The Gamecocks lost CB Auguste, a projected starter, for at least 4-5 weeks, probably longer. Big loss as that comes on the heels of losing 3 CBs who started at least 6 games LY, including NFL draftee Gilmore. LY SC had the #2 passing defense in the entire country - this year, CB appears to be somewhat of a concern, at least early in the season.

4th string QB McEvoy has transferred in search of more playing time. The loss is not significant obviously.

Backup SPUR Golightly, who appeared in 12 games LY, has been suspended for the first three games this year. The Gamecocks would like to get him back on the field as soon as possible so he can soak in all he can from starting Sr Holloman. In the meantime, the backup role will be taken over by RFr Roberts, which is a big time drop-off, especially if anything was to happen to Holloman.

Arkansas

Keep an eye on RB Knile Davis, who is clearly one of the best RBs in the SEC, but is working his way back from an ankle injury that forced him to miss all of last season. He has not taken part in any contact drills as of yet (to my knowledge), and although it seems a lock he will be in pads and playing come the September 1st opener vs. Jacksonville State, the Razorbacks are much more concerned that he is ready to go at 100% come Wk3, September 15th vs. Alabama. I do not foresee any issues with him getting into the lineup, but it's never a good thing when a player doesn't practice full speed in pads.

Starting #2 WR Wade and backup WR Humphrey has been suspended for the season. Combine the status of those two players with the tragic death of TE Uekman, the loss of LY's top 3 WRs to the NFL, and the loss of HC Petrino and the Razorbacks passing game is facing a lot of adversity before the season even kicks off. Keep an eye on the effectiveness of the Arkansas WRs early in the season as it could very well tell us how good and prolific of an offense they will have once the SEC defenses are opposite them.

West Virginia

No Updates Available

Wisconsin

The Badgers will start QB O'Brien, their transfer from Maryland this season. In addition to that announcement at QB, the Badgers have suffered 3 season ending injuries/transfers to backups. #2 Brennan has decided to leave the program in search of more playing time following the staff anointing O'Brien the starter. 3rd string Jr Budmayr has hip issues and will miss the entire season. Also, incoming Fr Houston had shoulder surgery and will RS the 2012 season. That leaves the Badgers with 3 QBs - O'Brien the starter, and backups RFr Stave and Jr Phillips. It will be a massive issue if O'Brien gets injured this season.

Wisconsin has lost a pair of backup defensive players for the season due to injury. Jr DT Kohout has retired from football as an MRI revealed he has had a few minor strokes in his life - he had 40+ tackles in his career at Wisconsin as a backup. Backup SS Singleton, a Fr, has not been cleared academically and will miss the entire season. He was one of the top recruits of the 2012 class for the Badgers, and his loss will lead to a medium talent drop-off to the next player ready to step in, but nothing significant, and he remains a key piece of the Badger secondary going forward.

Michigan State

The Spartans have a pair of incoming Fr WRs that were considered likely to make impacts this season that are on the mend currently. Monty Madaris has a high ankle sprain and is considered questionable for the big opener vs. Boise State. Aaron Burbridge had surgery on his knee and is out for at least 4 weeks. The Spartans still have ample talented bodies to rotate, as these two would see limited action, instead spending the season learning and soaking in as much knowledge from the veterans as possible.

Starting LG (was a C in 2010) Treadwell is out at least 4 weeks with a broken bone in his leg. The Jr missed all of LY with a knee injury. It appears as of now he will be replaced in the starting lineup by RFr Jack Allen, a significant drop-off in proven production. In addition to the loss of Treadwell MSU also lost backup John Deyo to a transfer. The Sr Deyo was a career backup, although he has appeared in 34 games during his career. Those two OL losses will partially offset the positive that 4 returning starters bring. Over the first month of the season MSU has 3 critical games, the aforementioned opener vs. Boise State, hosting Notre Dame 2wks later, and hosting Ohio State on September 29th. At least 4 of the first 5 and 5 of the first 7 are at home, with the only road games during those stretches Wk2 @ Central Michigan, and Wk6 @ Indiana.

Clemson

WR Sammy Watkins, the ACC OPOY and 1ST Team AA, is suspended for the first two games of the season, including the huge opener vs. Auburn. This is a critical loss for Clemson in their hopes to start the season fast against an SEC team following last year's debacle in the Orange Bowl where they lost to WVU 70-33. What Tiger fans can take some solice in is the fact they return all their key producers and backups from LY sans Mackey winning TE Allen. His loss will be big in the opener (still a game they can definitely win), but will not have an impact Wk2 vs. Ball State.

RB Bellamy, their #2 behind 2nd Team ACC RB Andre Ellington, is out for the year due to academics. DJ Howard will step into the #2 role, and some decline in production can be expected (but not a huge drop) as Bellamy was a top rated RB out of HS, and LY averaged 6.0 yards per carry.

Texas

Although it initially was announced Texas would start QB Ash and he would be their QB this season with no worries of being yanked mid-game for poor performance, it has now been announced that once again he will rotate with McCoy - at least initially - when they open the season against Wyoming.

Top backup WR Miles Onyegbule could miss the beginning of the season with a chest injury. Although the Horns are set with their 3 starters, Onyegbule will have a significant role in the passing game this fall.

Virginia Tech

No Updates Available

Nebraska

Starting RT Moore has been lost to personal reasons. Last season he was the first true Fr to start on the NU OL. He will likely be replaced by Jr Qvale, who played in 11 games LY at RT. In addition, also on the OL, 3rd team RG Klachko has transferred to Illinois. That move will not have a profound impact on performance or depth on the Huskers OL.

Ohio State

Starting RB Hall suffered a foot surgery over the summer and will miss at least the first two games of the season, possibly more considering CAL & UAB are games 3&4 in the Shoe. The Buckeyes already lost RB Boom Herron from LY, so that leaves Jr Carlos Hyde to step in for Hall, which will not be a big drop off in talent or production especially considering the schedule.

OSU released starting MLB Klein earlier this summer following violations of team rules, but then reinstated him last week. He will at least miss two games, possibly more but figures to at worst be back by the B10 schedule. Look for top rated recruit, So Curtis Grant, to take over in his absence.

Starting DE Sr Williams is still working his way back from microfracture surgery that forced him to miss all of LY, and his status remains questionable for Wk1. Also at DE incumbent starter Jr Bellamy has left the team for personal reasons - he was slated to either start if Williams could not, or be the first DE off the bench and a key part of the rotation. With these two injuries there is no doubt from a talent and experience standpoint OSU takes a hit. While there are highly rated players waiting to slide up the depth chart, these two losses will be felt for certain especially if Williams is not able to come back, or at least get close to 100%. Keep an eye on Williams' status updates as September rolls around.

The Buckeyes have also lost a trio of 3rd team players I will just list here, as they were expected to have minimal, if any, impact this season but did provide depth, which could become an issue with the scholarship losses they will suffer from shortly: So Boubek, a C, has transferred to Minnesota after falling down to #3 on the depth chart; Fr O'Connor, a RT, injured his left knee recently and will sit out the season as a RS; RFr NT Hayes has transferred to Michigan State.

Oklahoma State

The Cowboys dismissed starting Sr LT Bowie for violation of team rules. Considering the State OL already lost 3 starters from LY, this is a big blow as he was to be the anchor of the unit - allowing ZERO sacks and limited QBHs LY - protecting the blindside of Fr QB Lunt. We will either see Jr RT Graham slide into the vacated LT spot, or backup T So Koenig take over at LT. It has not been announced yet who is officially taking over, but this is a big blow to an already shaky unit, especially considering they are a pass happy team and are breaking in a brand new Fr QB.

3rd string DT Mustafa has left the team for personal reasons. He did not appear in any games LY, and as a RFr was considered to potentially be a part of the DT rotation. Not a huge loss here for 2012.

TCU

No Updates Available

Stanford

Backup RB Gaffney has decided to pursue a baseball career. This is a big loss for the Cardinal from a depth perspective - Sr Taylor returns and is a stud, no doubt one of the best RBs in the entire country. But if he was to get injured, there now isn't that one highly talented player behind him. It will be RBC as a backup to Taylor now, and with the loss of top draft pick QB Luck, Stanford must keep its fingers and toes cross Taylor stays healthy, or they will struggle mightily offensively.

Kansas State

The Wildcats were dealt a significant blow when it was announced their top recruit for this year, JUCO transfer Marquez Clark, has been ruled academically ineligible. Clark is coming off a season where he set JUCO records with 98 receptions for 1,639 yards! This is a massive blow to the KSU passing game that has been rumored as potentially ramping up significantly this season behind 2nd year starter Collin Klein. So Tyler Lockett, a good player in his own right but not in the same category of Clark, will likely step into the starting gig that has been vacated.

KSU suffered another significant loss when Sr LT Foketi announced he would transfer. KSU is currently blocking the request, but nevertheless, his loss will be massive to an OL that already lost 3 starters from LY - 1T B12 RT, 2T B12 LT, and RG. Foketi missed LY with an ACL, and the drop-off in talent behind him is huge. The loss of Foketi and Clark are two of the biggest losses among contending teams heading into the 2012 season. Florida

CB Brown continues to work his way back from an ACL injury that cost him all of 2011. In 2010 he started 10 games, and this year was being counted on to most likely be a nickel or dime defender. Keep an eye on his status as its unlikely he plays in the opener or possibly the first few weeks, but should be back in time to add depth once the SEC schedule gets rolling.

Incoming Fr LT Humphries is OUT for 2-4 weeks following a knee injury. He was the #1 rated OL of the 2012 class, slated to be the Gators #2 LT behind incumbent Sr Nixon. Humphries has a very bright future ahead of him in Gainesville, so monitor his status closely as the calendar turns to October.

DE/BUCK Powell continues working his way back from an ACL injury suffered in the spring. HC Muschamp expects the top flight DE to return to action for the SEC portion of the schedule, and he will be a huge addition along a defensive front that has the potential to be one of the top 5 or so in the country once he gets back into the lineup. He had 6 sacks LY. Sr McCray, a very talented defender himself, will start in Powell's absence.

Boise State

Starting #3 WR Boldweijn has been suspended for the first 3 games of 2012, eligible to return to action Oct. 3 vs. Southern Mississippi. Although he hasn't produced much since arriving, he has all the measurables and is perceived as a potential break-out candidate in 2012. There is similar statistical production amongst the backup WRs compared to Boldweijn, but none possess the raw tools he does to potentially turn into a legitimate #1. As far as the WR corps as a whole goes, the more experience BSU can boast outside the easier it will be to break-in new QB Joe Southwick.

Boise lost 6th year Sr and starting C Yriarte for the season because of a knee injury. Look for Jr Paradis, who started 1 game as C LY, to step into the open role - which will be a talent drop-off for sure, and will not be of great assistance to breaking in the new QB.

DL Jungblut has transferred, which is a serious blow to the depth of a DL that already lost all 4 starters, and 1 other player who had 6 starts himself LY. Included in the players lost before Jungblut was a pair of 1T AMW, and one 2T AMW. Starting talent and depth are major concerns at DL this season for the Broncos.

Louisville

WR Harris is out for the season after tearing ligaments in the same knee that he tore his ACL LY. He was the leading returning & probably best WR for the Cardinals, and although there is some experienced depth behind him, he will be sorely missed.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-28-2012, 01:46 PM

SEC Notes

--Kentucky head coach Joker Phillips has named sophomore Maxwell Smith as the team’s starting quarterback. Smith played in eight games as a true freshman, starting in three of those contests. He completed 84-of-153 passes (54.9%) for 819 yards with a 4/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Smith beat out senior Morgan Newton, who missed the spring with a shoulder injury. The Wildcats open the year on Sept. 2 at Louisville as 14-point underdogs.

--The QB situations at Auburn and Florida are still unresolved. It’s a two-man battle in Gainesville between fellow true sophomores Jeff Driskel and Jacoby Brissett. Driskel has been held out of contact the last week due to an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. The injury isn’t serious but you would think it has probably given Brissett the slight edge for now. Both QBs were extremely ineffective when forced into action last year due to injuries to John Brantley. The Gators open Sept. 1 vs. Bowling Green as 29-point home favorites.

--Gene Chizik hasn’t made up his mind between junior Clint Moseley and sophomore Kiehl Frazier. Moseley got more playing time in 2011, connecting on 61.1 percent of his passes for 800 yards with a 5/3 TD-INT ratio. Frazier rushed for more than 300 yards and three TDs, but he completed just 5-of-12 passes for 34 yards without a score and two interceptions. Auburn will open against Clemson as three-point underdogs (minus-115 price on AU) at the Ga. Dome. Clemson star WR Sammy Watkins is suspended and will not dress in Atlanta.

--Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson completed 22-of-37 passes for 252 yards and three TDs at Saturday’s scrimmage. Cobi Hamilton, who is poised for a breakout campaign following the departures of Greg Childs, Joe Adams and Jarius Wright, caught 11 balls for 165 yards and a pair of TDs.

--South Carolina starting senior CB Akeem Auguste is out indefinitely (at least 4-5 weeks) with a torn muscle in his thigh suffered in Saturday’s scrimmage. Also, redshirt RB Shon Carson has sustained another injury that could be a season-ender. Fortunately for the Gamecocks, they have Marcus Lattimore back at 100 percent along with Kenny Miles and Brandon Wilds, both of whom performed extremely well in Lattimore’s absence last season. The ‘Cocks are currently seven-point favorites for next Thursday’s game at Vanderbilt.

--After playing QB last season and WR in the spring, Ole Miss senior Randall Mackey has settled at the running back position behind Jeff Scott. Mackey has plenty of speed and playmaking ability for new head coach Hugh Freeze.

--Don’t be surprised if Alabama freshman RB T.J. Yeldon gets touches galore in the season opener vs. Michigan at Cowboys Stadium. The Crimson Tide is favored by 12 ½ against the Wolverines. The total is 42 ½ at a few offshore books and I like it to go ‘over’ if that total remains in the low 40s.

--Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin has named redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel as his starting QB for the squad’s opener next Thursday against La. Tech in Shreveport. The Aggies are 7 ½-point favorites against the Bulldogs.

--Tennessee is struggling with injuries at the TE position. Senior starter Mychal Rivera, who had 29 receptions for 344 yards and one TD last year, has missed most of camp with a knee injury. The injury is not considered serious and he’s ‘probable’ to start next Friday at the Ga. Dome vs. N.C. St. However, his back-up Cameron Clear has been dismissed from the team and Brendan Down is most likely out for the year (knee). The Vols are four-point favorites vs. the Wolfpack.

--UF also has issues at tight end. Rising sophomore A.C. Leonard left the program about a month ago and then Colin Thompson went down with a foot injury earlier this week. Thompson is expected to have surgery Wednesday and miss at least eight weeks. Jordan Reed is the starter but has been hobbled this week with a twisted knee.

--The nation’s No. 1 prep recruit in the 2012 class, Missouri WR Dorial Green-Beckham, continues to turn heads in Columbia. Also, James Franklin’s surgically-repaired shoulder has looked just fine. On the flip side, the Tigers are struggling with injuries on the offensive line. Nevertheless, they have a great chance at shaking up the SEC East race in their league debut against Georgia on Sept. 8 due to a number of issues in Athens. (see below)

--Georgia is going to be without four suspended starters on defense for its opener against Buffalo and its Week 2 trip to Missouri. All-American safety Baccari Rambo is suspended for four games, while LB Alec Ogletree, LB Chase Vasser and CB Sanders Commings will miss UGA’s first two contests. The trio of Ogletree, Rambo and Commings combined for more than 160 tackles, four sacks, 8 ½ tackles for losses, 22 passes broken up, nine interceptions and eight QB hurries last year. Also, 2011 leading rusher Isaiah Crowell has been dismissed from the team and starting OT Kolston Houston remains in NCAA limbo.

--Sportsbook.ag is currently showing Alabama and LSU with 5/1 and 6/1 odds, respectively, to win the BCS Championship Game. LSU was at plus-350 or 4/1 at most spots before the dismissal of Tyrann Mathieu. Not only has LSU's future odds been adjusted, but it has also seen its numbers change for Games of the Year. For instance, the Tigers are now just three-point favorites at Florida and two-point 'chalk' at Arkansas.

--Sportsbook.ag is currently showing these future numbers to win the SEC:
Alabama +160 (risk $100 to win $160)
LSU +225
Georgia +450
Florida +600 (6/1)
Arkansas 10/1
South Carolina 12/1
Tennessee 25/1
Missouri 60/1
Texas A&M 75/1
Mississippi St. 75/1
Auburn 75/1
Vanderbilt 100/1
Kentucky 100/1
Ole Miss 100/1

**StarDust Bum** · 08-28-2012, 01:48 PM

Vanderbilt Hosts South Carolina In SEC Opener

It’s been a while since fans in Nashville had much to cheer about with hometown Vanderbilt, the longtime SEC punching bag which surprisingly emerged as a threat during a rare bowl season a year ago under first-year head coach James Franklin.

But while Vandy continues to look for more respect, South Carolina has some higher goals this fall. Indeed, many SEC sources suggest that the latest creation from the laboratory of Steve Spurrier is a stealth BCS candidate and could even emerge as the team to beat in all of the conference.

We’ll get our first looks at both the Commodores and Gamecocks on Thursday night in Nashville, where Carolina invades to commence the 2012 campaign. The Don Best college football odds screen notes the Gamecocks as a solid 7-point favorite at almost every Las Vegas sports book, with the total hovering between 45 and 45½ at Nevada wagering outlets.

Kickoff on Thursday night will be at 7:00 p.m. (ET), with ESPN on hand to provide national coverage for the intriguing SEC East opener.

Such was Vandy’s surprising revival that much of the attention prior to this lid-lifter has been focused upon the 'Dores, who emerged as compelling viewing last fall under Franklin. A long-dormant Vanderbilt offense finally awakened once juco transfer Jordan Rodgers (Aaron’s younger brother) took over the QB duties at midseason from mistake-prone incumbent Larry Smith.

One-sided late-season romps over Kentucky (38-8) and Wake Forest (41-7) got Vandy to the six wins required for a postseason invitation. Even a subsequent 31-24 Liberty Bowl loss vs. Cincinnati didn’t dampen the enthusiasm in Nashville, as Vandy reached a bowl game for only the second time since 1983.

SEC sources suggest keeping an eye on the Commodores, who now have a healthy complement of runners with holdovers Warren Norman (the 2009 SEC Frosh MVP) and Zac Stacy (1,193 yards rushing in 2011) still in the fold and now complemented by electric true frosh RB Brian Kimbrow, a Memphis product who seemed ticketed for Arkansas or Tennessee but was instead wooed to Nashville by Franklin. SEC sources say that the pinball-like Kimbrow provides the sort of coast-to-coast infantry component that will likely wreak much havoc among opposing defenses this fall.

Of course, Spurrier’s Gamecocks are not your ordinary opposing defense, ranking third nationally in overall “D” a year ago and short-circuiting Vandy in a 21-3 win at Williams-Brice Stadium last September when Larry Smith was still taking the majority of snaps for the Commodore offense.

Most of Spurrier’s key playmakers on the stop unit return for an encore this fall, including the star-studded DE combo of Jadeveon Clowney and Devin Taylor, who combined for a whopping 23½ sacks between them in 2011. How Vanderbilt QB Rodgers deals with these menacing defensive ends, who have as much speed as most running backs, remains to be seen.

Spurrier, however, might have a few concerns in his secondary which is now down to just one returning starter from last year’s 11-2, Capital One Bowl-winning team after an injury to senior CB Akeem Auguste. Spurrier is also breaking in a new defensive coordinator after the long-serving Ellis Johnson departed for Southern Miss and its head coaching position in the offseason. Lorenzo Ward, who served as Johnson’s CB coach last season, has been promoted to the coordinator role, but we’ll see how his schemes and adjustment compare to those of his predecessor, who was considered state-of-the-art.

Of course, much of the attention in Columbia centers upon junior RB Marcus Lattimore, considered a Heisman candidate last fall before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Lattimore, who had already gained 861 yards and scored 10 TDs at the time of his injury, is said to be back at 100 percent, but sources wonder if he might be a bit tentative in his return to live action.

Also, SEC sources suspect that Spurrier might finally have solved his long-running QB dilemma with junior Connor Shaw now firmly in control of the offense. Spurrier, whose offenses at SC have often spun their wheels with Syvelle Newton, Chris Smelley and Stephen Garcia proving erratic at the controls in recent years, believes the multi-dimensional Shaw (who completed 65% of his passes and ran for another 525 yards after supplanting Garcia last fall) can take the Gamecocks to the championship level. Being rid of the Garcia and his accompanying distractions is also seen as a plus in Columbia.

Shaw, however, won’t have the safety blanket of all-everything wideout Alshon Jeffery, the Cocks’ most-dangerous receiving target in recent years but now drawing paychecks from the NFL Chicago Bears. Spurrier thinks his new receivers, including true frosh Shaq Roland (last year’s South Carolina Prep Mr. Football), can eventually fill the void, but the imposing target of the 6-foot-4 Jeffery will still be hard to replace.

Carolina has won and covered the last two meetings by almost-identical scores (21-3 last year and 21-7 in 2010), with both games well 'under' in the process. Note, however, that Franklin’s Vanderbilt covered the spread in all seven of its home games last season, including three times as a Nashville underdog.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-28-2012, 01:50 PM

Leach Era Begins With Washington State At BYU

The redemption of Washington State coach Mike Leach begins on Thursday when his team invades BYU. Both squads are nicknamed the Cougars in this Pac-12 vs. Independent showdown.

ESPN will have the kickoff at 10:15 p.m. (ET) after No. 9 South Carolina at Vanderbilt as college football begins another glorious season on Thursday night.

The Don Best odds screen has Washington State as 13½-point road ‘dogs with a total of 62. Only the latter has had much movement after opening at 58½

The presence of Leach certainly has something to do with the total moving upward. He’s known for his wide open, spread passing attack that finished second in passing yards (386.8 YPG) his last season at Texas Tech (2009).

Leach spent 10 years at Texas Tech overall and amassed an 84-43 straight-up record. He was fired after being accused of mistreating a player (Adam James) with a concussion. He seems re-energized to coach and the fan base is certainly excited to have him.

The big question about Leach is not whether he will get this offense clicking, but how soon? Senior quarterback Jeff Tuel will almost definitely start on Thursday after missing most of last year with collarbone and calf injuries. He threw for 2,780 yards in 2010, completing 59.8 percent of his passes and 18 TDS vs. 12 picks.

Tuel’s big target is star receiver Marquess Wilson, 82 receptions, 1,388 receiving yards last year. The defense could have a big adjustment under new coordinator Mike Breske, who switched to the 3-4. That’s another reason why a lot of points could come in the opener.

Washington State finished 4-8 SU (7-5 against the spread) and has a good chance to improve to .500 as the Leach era begins.

BYU went 10-3 SU last season (9-4 ATS) under coach Bronco Mendenhall, now in his seventh year at the helm. The team covered the last seven contests, with the offense scoring 38.7 PPG and the ‘over’ going 5-2.

Quarterback Riley Nelson is back for his senior season after starting seven games last year (team 6-1). He’s not big at 6-foot-1 and 199 pounds, but had 19 TDs versus just seven INTs along with a very good 152.9 QB rating (17th nationally).

Junior receiver Cody Hoffman had 943 receiving yards and 10 TDs in this West Coast passing system. Michael Alisa should be the featured back after rushing for 453 yards in his last seven games before missing the bowl win (24-21) over Tulsa. Nelson also showed off very good scrambling ability with 392 rushing yards.

The defense finished 13th in the country last year in total yards allowed (313.4 YPG). Some of that was due to a pretty easy schedule, but Mendenhall believes this stop unit could be even better.

BYU has some injuries to mention with receiver Ross Apo (shoulder) probable. Guard Brock Stringham (ankle) is questionable as is kicker Justin Sorensen (back).

These teams last met in 1989 and 1990, splitting the pair. They were both high-scoring affairs with an average of 86.5 points scored.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-28-2012, 01:59 PM

College football lines that make you go hmmm...

A new football season means a whole new crop of “Football Lines That Make You Go Hmmm…”.

Week 1 of the college football slate begins this Thursday and there are more than a few odds out there making bettors scratch their heads. Here’s a look at three games which lines are making us go “Hmmm” this week:

Navy Midshipmen vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-16.5, 57)

This line has baffled many football bettors ever since Notre Dame QB Tommy Rees was suspended. Most markets opened the Irish around -17 and have since dropped the spread to 16.5. However, with the recent news that Notre Dame starting RB Cierre Wood was suspended for the first two games, you would expect another line move for the Irish.

That hasn’t been the case.

While the total has reflected those missing players, going from 58.5 to 57, the spread is staying put at 16.5 – a testament to the public appeal of Notre Dame.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (+8.5, 50)

The Runnin’ Rebels were putrid last season, going a nauseating 3-8-1 ATS. While Bobby Hauck has some experience returning on offense, UNLV managed the fourth fewest yards in the nation in 2011 and isn’t expected to do much more in 2012.

Minnesota isn’t the cream of the crop in the Big Ten but has plenty of returning talent and a game-breaker in QB MarQueis Gray, who can manufacture touchdowns all by himself.

This spread has bounced around this summer, going as low as 7 and as high as 9.5. A big stinky middle could be in the cards for books taking action against the Vegas kids.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Northern Illinois Huskies (+10, 50)

Chandler Harnish was one of the best kept secrets in college football and carried NIU to 11 wins and a bowl victory before making the move to the pros. The Huskies, who averaged 476.1 yards (11th in the country) last season, return just three starters from that offense.

Iowa lost starting RB Marcus Coker to transfer but returns QB James Vandenberg, who was third in passing yards per game in the Big Ten and posted a 25-to-7 TD-to-INT count. New offensive coordinator Greg Davis has a few new wrinkles and the chops to soften the loss of the 1,375 yards and 12 TDs departed WR Marvin McNutt put up in 2011.

Early-bird action has walked this spread from 6.5 all the way to 10. Could game-day money push it past that the key number?

**StarDust Bum** · 08-30-2012, 12:34 AM

2012 College Football Win Totals Picks

College football is back, and Don Best takes a last minute look at win totals for the upcoming season that kicks off Thursday night, and our experts provide their selections for top picks in the popular futures wagering.

No reason why we shouldn't start with an SEC team by looking at the Arkansas Razorbacks who are pegged at 8½ ('over' -125). Don Best analyst Brian Blessing likes 'under' 8½ due to the schedule and breaking in a new head coach. Kenny White believes it's a fair number and has no play, but believes Arkansas will be among the top teams in yet another solid year for the Southeastern Conference.

"I think the SEC has 10 of the top 27 teams in the country," White predicted, "and it should be in a completely different division by itself."

Jumping west to Boise State, the Broncos are listed at 9½ with the 'over' costing $1.50, and White believes the 'under' has great value despite the program's top-ranked winning results in the win column during the BCS era. Blessing is going to shade White's play on this one.

Oklahoma State down in the Big 12 presents an interesting wager with a true freshman at quarterback, Wes Lunt, a highly recruited star out of Rochester, IL. Lunt will get his first look in a conference that has changed in the last year with TCU and West Virginia replacing Missouri and Texas A&M.

Both Blessing and White agree that Oklahoma State is due for a down year in 2012, and like the under 8½ laying the extra juice on the Cowboys.

Here is a quick look at some of the major programs with win totals of eight or higher.

SCHOOL . . . . .WINS (O/U)
Alabama. . . . .10½ (U -125)
Arkansas . . . . 8½ (O -125)
Auburn . . . . . 7. (O -125)
Boise State. . . 9½ (O -150)
Clemson . . . . .8½ (O -125)
Florida. . . . . 8. (O -140)
Florida State. . 10 (O -140)
Georgia. . . . . 10 (U -130)
Louisville . . . 8. (O -180)
Louisiana State.10½ (U -140)
Michigan . . . . 8½ (O -140)
Michigan State . 8½ (O -120)
Nebraska . . . . 8½ (O -140)
Notre Dame . . . 8. (U -120)
Ohio State . . . 9. (O -140)
Oklahoma . . . .10. (O -125)
Oklahoma State . 8½ (O -130)
Oregon . . . . .10½ (O -120)
South Carolina . 8½ (O -130)
Southern Cal. . 10½ (O -140)
Texas. . . . . . 9. (O -140)
Texas Christian. 8. (O -120)
Virginia Tech. . 9. (O -160)
West Virginia. . 8½ (O -120)
Wisconsin. . . . 9. (O -160)

**StarDust Bum** · 08-30-2012, 12:42 AM

Tech Trends - Week 1
August 28, 2012

Thursday, Aug. 30

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SOUTH CAROLINA at VANDERBILT...Vandy was a stellar 7-0 (!) vs. line at home last season (including 3-0 as a dog), although Spurrier has won and covered last two vs. Dores. Spurrier had covered four of five openers prior to failing to get number last season vs. ECU.

Slight to Vandy, based on recent home trends.

CENTRAL FLORIDA at AKRON...Terry Bowden debut at Akron! Zips were zip-lined in the Ianello years, especially as a dog when recording 7-14 spread mark past two seasons. Akron also 2-6 last 8 vs. points against non-MAC. O'Leary 0-3 as road chalk LY, however.

Slight to UCF, based on Akron negatives.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at BALL STATE...Ball won and covered at Ypslianti last season after failing to cover three straight in series. Note Pete Lembo was 6-4 as a dog last season with better luck in role on road (5-2) than at home (1-2). Cards, however, are 20-12 as dog since 2007. Rare road chalk role for EMU, which is 1-5 as a favorite (all at home) since 2007 and hasn't been favored on road since final game of 2005 season at Buffalo!

Ball State, based on team trends.

TEXAS A&M vs. LA TECH...Sumlin A&M debut! Sonny Dykes covered his last eight games in 2011 and was also 7-0 as dog a year ago and 8-0 vs. spread away from Ruston last season! Ags just 4-8 as chalk for previous Mike Sherman regime last season, though Kevin Sumlin was 11-3 vs. line with Houston LY (failed to cover with Cougs in early-season tilt vs. Tech).

Tech edge-La Tech, based on recent trends.

UMASS at UCONN...UMass now a real board team, with a handful of spread games the past few years. After a 14-8 spread mark as chalk for Edsall between 2007-10, UConn dipped to 2-4 in role for Pasqualoni LY (1-4 as Rentsch chalk). Extended DD home chalk numbers remain good for Huskies (8-3 since '07).

Slight to UConn, based on extended home DD chalk marks.

UCLA at RICE...Bruins return to city of Houston for second straight year (lost opener to UH Cougs 38-34 LY) but this is first game at Rice since an epic battle in 1966 when the Tommy Prothro Bruins needed a last-second Kurt Zimmerman FG to pull out a 27-24 win. UCLA, which entered that game ranked No. 2 in the country behind Michigan State, scored 11 points in the final 2:30 to avert a major upset, with Gary beban's 33-yard TD pass to sprinter Harold Busby and Mel Farr's 2-point PAT leveling the game at 24-24. Mora debut at UCLA, and Bruins have been favored only four times the past two seasons (1-3 vs. line). UCLA 0-4 against points vs. non-conference foes LY. David Bailiff has solid 9-3 spread mark at home since 2010 (5-2 as home dog) and 19-10 as host vs. number since 2007.

Slight to Rice, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at BYU...Leach WSU debut in the all-Coug battle! BYU variety closed with a rush LY by covering last seven on the board. Bronco Mendenhall 14-5 vs. spread last 19 on board since late 2010, also 6-2 as DD chalk past two years (5-2 at home). Leach was only 3-6 as road dog at Texas Tech between 2007-09.

Slight to BYU, based on team trends.

MINNESOTA at UNLV...As bad as Rebs have been on road in recent years, they have been thorny as a home dog (7-2 in role under Bobby Hauck since 2010, 13-6 dating back to 2007). Hauck 8-3 vs. line at Sam Boyd Stadium since 2010. Jerry Kill 1-2 as chalk LY for Gophers, and Minnesota subpar 8-14 overall as chalk since 2007 (not so bad 3-3 as road favorite that span, however).

UNLV, based on home dog mark.

Thursday, Aug. 30 - Added Games

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

UTSA at SOUTH ALABAMA...New board teams, first-ever spread on UTSA! USA won 2-OT thriller at Alamodome LY. Jags covered their two board chances LY vs. NCS and Kent State.

Slight to USA, based on team trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-30-2012, 12:46 AM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Thursday's games

South Carolina won 10 of its last 12 games with SEC rival Vanderbilt, winning last three by average score of 19-7. Gamecocks won five of last six visits here (4-2 vs spread). This is smallest series pointspread since 2006, a Commodores have improved their program. Vandy was 3-0 as a home dog LY, after going 8-18 from '04-'10; their QB is Jordan Rodgers, brother of Packer QB Aaron- he started seven games LY. Carolina's QB is Connor Shaw, who was nine career starts. Gamecocks are 7-4-1 as a road favorite since '06.

Terry Bowden is the new coach at Akron, which is 5-31 last three years. Central Florida-Akron haven't met since 2004; Zips have eight starters back on offense, five on defense- they're 4-8 as home dogs over last three years. Akron's starting QB LY completed only 48% of his passes LY, which is awful, so not sure if he is still the starter. UCF has 8 starters back on both sides of ball; since '03, they're 7-13 as a road favorite and will have a new QB. One candidate is Tyler Gabbert, brother of Blaine.

Underdogs covered seven of last nine Eastern Michigan-Ball State games, with Ball State winning five of last six. Last three series games have been decided by three or less points. Eastern had 570 rushing yards last two meetings, but split the pair. Ball has 8 tarters back on offense; their QB has 22 career starts, so they're strong there, especially with four starters back on OL. EMU is 8-5 as a road dog last two years; they've got nine starters back on offense and a QB with 27 career starts. Ball State is 1-7 as a home favorite since Brady Hoke left town.

Texas A&M-Louisiana Tech game has been postponed because of the tropical storm. Game will be made up on October 13.

UMass is playing its first game in I-A; they lost 42-37 at Michigan two years ago, 45-17 at Boston College LY; UMass QB Pagel is son of Colts' alum Mike Pagel; he had nine TDs, nine INT LY. Minutemen have had negative turnover ratio four years in row, while going 23-22. UConn has 8 starters back on defense, 6 on offense; over last decade, they're 30-20 as a favorite, 20-15 at home. Huskies have three starters back on the OL; they're +20 in turnovers the last two seasons.

First game at UCLA for former NFL coach Mora, with 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense. Bruins have Nebraska coming to Rose Bowl next week, better not be looking ahead here-- this is first time since '09 they're favored to win a road game (2-0 as road fave under Neuheisel). Rice is 10-26 last three years, but 13-7-1 vs spread as home underdog since 2006. Owls lost six starters on both sides of ball, but their junior QB has started ten games. They lost four starters on offensive line.

Mike Leach is new coach at Washington State, so we know Coogs will be throwing the ball; State has 7 starters back on both sides of ball, with three starters back on OL-- they were 7-4 as road dog last two seasons under Wulff, but they were 9-40 SU in his four years. Independent BYU is 19-13 as a home favorite since '06; they play archrival Utah in couple weeks, not sure they'll show everything here. BYU also has 7 starters back on both sides of ball, with a senior QB who has 17 career starts.

UNLV is starting a redshirt freshman QB, as they try to turn around a program that is 4-21 SU under Hauck, but 6-2-1 vs spread as home dog. Home side has covered 20 of their last 24 games. Rebels have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense, with their whole OL back. Minnesota is 7-13 as a favorite since '07, losing 11 of last 15 road games SU. Gophers have six starters back on both sides of ball, with athletic senior QB who has also played some WR- they've got three sophs, two juniors starting on OL. It'll take some onions to lay 8 points on road with Gophers.

UT-San Antonio-South Alabama game has been moved to Saturday due to the tropical storm. This is both teams' first game in I-A.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-30-2012, 12:50 AM

NCAAF biggest betting mismatches: Week 1

If your handicapping method leans heavily on spotting mismatches, Week 1 of the college football season is your Christmas morning.

Heavyweight title-contending programs like to stretch their legs against much weaker foes, even locking horns with some FCS squads in an effort to boost confidence and iron out the details before the “real” games begin.

However, some teams are tested right out of the gate. And those are the contests we’ll focus on in our first NCAAF mismatches article of the year.

UMass Minutemen at UConn Huskies (-24.5)

UMass' FBS jitters vs. UConn's aggressive defense

The Minutemen meet an old foe in their first FBS game. Massachusetts goes up against an aggressive and experienced defense, with the Huskies returning eight starters including all three linebackers. Connecticut ranked at the bottom of the Big East in pass defense last year but gambled a lot, forcing 31 turnovers (13 fumbles, 18 interceptions). Expect the Huskies to take advantage of a nervous Minutemen squad.

Boise State Broncos at Michigan State Spartans (-7, 45.5)

Michigan State RB Le'Veon Bell vs. Boise State run defense

Bell finished eighth in the Big Ten in rushing as a sophomore and will get even more carries as a junior with the major turnover in talent in the Spartans’ passing game. Boise State head coach Chris Petersen knows he’s in for a long night against the 6-foot-2, 244-pound running back, losing all for starting linemen as well as the top three linebackers from 2011.

"We've taped two of our running backs together and they carry the ball at the same time to get a little feel of what it'd be like to really tackle a guy (that size), because we don't have anybody around here who looks like that," Peterson told mlive.com. "He is a load. And that'll be different for our guys."

Nevada Wolf Pack at California Golden Bears (-10.5, 55.5)

Nevada’s pistol offense vs. California defense

The last time these two met, Nevada’s option-heavy package rolled over the Golden Bears for a 52-31 win back in 2010. Of course, former QB Colin Kaepernick did most of the damage. The Wolf Pack have another dangerous dual-threat in sophomore QB Cody Fajardo, who rushed for 11 touchdowns last season. Cal’s defense suffered some serious losses, most notably Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year LB Mychal Kendricks.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-30-2012, 04:44 PM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Thursday's games

South Carolina won 10 of its last 12 games with SEC rival Vanderbilt, winning last three by average score of 19-7. Gamecocks won five of last six visits here (4-2 vs spread). This is smallest series pointspread since 2006, a Commodores have improved their program. Vandy was 3-0 as a home dog LY, after going 8-18 from '04-'10; their QB is Jordan Rodgers, brother of Packer QB Aaron- he started seven games LY. Carolina's QB is Connor Shaw, who was nine career starts. Gamecocks are 7-4-1 as a road favorite since '06.

Terry Bowden is the new coach at Akron, which is 5-31 last three years. Central Florida-Akron haven't met since 2004; Zips have eight starters back on offense, five on defense- they're 4-8 as home dogs over last three years. Akron's starting QB LY completed only 48% of his passes LY, which is awful, so not sure if he is still the starter. UCF has 8 starters back on both sides of ball; since '03, they're 7-13 as a road favorite and will have a new QB. One candidate is Tyler Gabbert, brother of Blaine.

Underdogs covered seven of last nine Eastern Michigan-Ball State games, with Ball State winning five of last six. Last three series games have been decided by three or less points. Eastern had 570 rushing yards last two meetings, but split the pair. Ball has 8 tarters back on offense; their QB has 22 career starts, so they're strong there, especially with four starters back on OL. EMU is 8-5 as a road dog last two years; they've got nine starters back on offense and a QB with 27 career starts. Ball State is 1-7 as a home favorite since Brady Hoke left town.

Texas A&M-Louisiana Tech game has been postponed because of the tropical storm. Game will be made up on October 13.

UMass is playing its first game in I-A; they lost 42-37 at Michigan two years ago, 45-17 at Boston College LY; UMass QB Pagel is son of Colts' alum Mike Pagel; he had nine TDs, nine INT LY. Minutemen have had negative turnover ratio four years in row, while going 23-22. UConn has 8 starters back on defense, 6 on offense; over last decade, they're 30-20 as a favorite, 20-15 at home. Huskies have three starters back on the OL; they're +20 in turnovers the last two seasons.

First game at UCLA for former NFL coach Mora, with 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense. Bruins have Nebraska coming to Rose Bowl next week, better not be looking ahead here-- this is first time since '09 they're favored to win a road game (2-0 as road fave under Neuheisel). Rice is 10-26 last three years, but 13-7-1 vs spread as home underdog since 2006. Owls lost six starters on both sides of ball, but their junior QB has started ten games. They lost four starters on offensive line.

Mike Leach is new coach at Washington State, so we know Coogs will be throwing the ball; State has 7 starters back on both sides of ball, with three starters back on OL-- they were 7-4 as road dog last two seasons under Wulff, but they were 9-40 SU in his four years. Independent BYU is 19-13 as a home favorite since '06; they play archrival Utah in couple weeks, not sure they'll show everything here. BYU also has 7 starters back on both sides of ball, with a senior QB who has 17 career starts.

UNLV is starting a redshirt freshman QB, as they try to turn around a program that is 4-21 SU under Hauck, but 6-2-1 vs spread as home dog. Home side has covered 20 of their last 24 games. Rebels have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense, with their whole OL back. Minnesota is 7-13 as a favorite since '07, losing 11 of last 15 road games SU. Gophers have six starters back on both sides of ball, with athletic senior QB who has also played some WR- they've got three sophs, two juniors starting on OL. It'll take some onions to lay 8 points on road with Gophers.

UT-San Antonio-South Alabama game has been moved to Saturday due to the tropical storm. This is both teams' first game in I-A.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-30-2012, 04:46 PM

What bettors need to know: Thursday's NCAAF action

The NCAA football season kicks off Thursday with 17 games on the schedule for bettors to choose from. We give you the essential tidbits on five of them to make your wagers.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at UNLV Runnin' Rebels (+8.5, 50)

Jerry Kill's first season as the head coach in Minnesota resulted in a 3-9 record. Kill, a kidney cancer survivor, suffered two seizures last year, including one on the field against New Mexico State on Sept. 10. Minnesota ranked 110th in total offense in 2011 and will rely heavily on senior quarterback MarQueis Gray to improve the offense this season.

UNLV’s passing offense ranked 118th out of 120 FBS programs with an average of just 109.6 YPG. If quarterback Caleb Herring doesn’t show he’s improved since last season, 6-foot-5 freshman Nick Sherry could get a shot at running the offense.

Washington State Cougars at Brigham Young Cougars (-13.5, 62)

Mike Leach became well known for his "Air Raid" offense while at Texas Tech and will bring similar schemes to Washington State this season. The Cougars ranked ninth in the nation in passing (322.3 YPG) last season and should only improve on that mark under the tutelage of Leach.

BYU is coming off of a 10-3 season and has a returning starter at quarterback. Senior Riley Nelson, who went 6-1 in games he started last season, is already considered a candidate for the 2012 Davey O'Brien Award.

UCLA Bruins at Rice Owls (+15.5, 56)

Jim Mora Jr's first game as a college head coach is on the road against Rice. The Bruins are 60-28-5 all-time in season openers, but are still searching for a No. 1 quarterback to lead the offense this season. Senior Richard Brehaut is the most likely candidate for the starting gig, but Kevin Prince and redshirt freshman Brett Hundley have been impressive in camp.

The Owls missed the bowl season for the third consecutive season and finished fourth in the C-USA's West Division last year. Head coach David Bailiff spent a significant amount of time reviewing Arizona State tape with his players to break down the schemes that Noel Mazzone, UCLA’s new offensive coordinator, used during his tenure with the Sun Devils.

South Carolina Gamecocks (9) at Vanderbilt Commodores (+7, 46)

South Carolina quarterback Connor Shaw missed most of practice Thursday because of back spasms, just a week before the ninth-ranked Gamecocks open the season at Vanderbilt. Shaw is a junior beginning his first full season as starting quarterback. He took over last fall for Stephen Garcia, who was dismissed from the program.

Running back Warren Norman will see his first game action since Oct. 30, 2010, because of injuries. Remember, Norman broke Herschel Walker’s SEC single-season freshman all-purpose yardage record in 2009 and should be a force this season for Vandy.

Central Florida Knights at Akron Zips (+23.5, 46.5)

The Knights hold a 21-12 record in openers and have won their last six. The Knights went 5-7 in 2011 with a 3-5 mark in Conference USA. Central Florida had six selections to the C-USA All-Freshman Team, marking the most by a league school since 2008.

The Zips have six quarterbacks on their roster, five of which are either freshmen or redshirt freshmen. The only pivot with collegiate experience is senior Dalton Williams, who was the backup quarterback at Stephen F. Austin from 2008-11. The Zips are 3-0 all-time when hosting the Knights.

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#10 Yesterday, 04:47 AM
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NCAAF biggest betting mismatches: Week 1

If your handicapping method leans heavily on spotting mismatches, Week 1 of the college football season is your Christmas morning.

Heavyweight title-contending programs like to stretch their legs against much weaker foes, even locking horns with some FCS squads in an effort to boost confidence and iron out the details before the “real” games begin.

However, some teams are tested right out of the gate. And those are the contests we’ll focus on in our first NCAAF mismatches article of the year.

UMass Minutemen at UConn Huskies (-24.5)

UMass' FBS jitters vs. UConn's aggressive defense

The Minutemen meet an old foe in their first FBS game. Massachusetts goes up against an aggressive and experienced defense, with the Huskies returning eight starters including all three linebackers. Connecticut ranked at the bottom of the Big East in pass defense last year but gambled a lot, forcing 31 turnovers (13 fumbles, 18 interceptions). Expect the Huskies to take advantage of a nervous Minutemen squad.

Boise State Broncos at Michigan State Spartans (-7, 45.5)

Michigan State RB Le'Veon Bell vs. Boise State run defense

Bell finished eighth in the Big Ten in rushing as a sophomore and will get even more carries as a junior with the major turnover in talent in the Spartans’ passing game. Boise State head coach Chris Petersen knows he’s in for a long night against the 6-foot-2, 244-pound running back, losing all for starting linemen as well as the top three linebackers from 2011.

"We've taped two of our running backs together and they carry the ball at the same time to get a little feel of what it'd be like to really tackle a guy (that size), because we don't have anybody around here who looks like that," Peterson told mlive.com. "He is a load. And that'll be different for our guys."

Nevada Wolf Pack at California Golden Bears (-10.5, 55.5)

Nevada’s pistol offense vs. California defense

The last time these two met, Nevada’s option-heavy package rolled over the Golden Bears for a 52-31 win back in 2010. Of course, former QB Colin Kaepernick did most of the damage. The Wolf Pack have another dangerous dual-threat in sophomore QB Cody Fajardo, who rushed for 11 touchdowns last season. Cal’s defense suffered some serious losses, most notably Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year LB Mychal Kendricks.

**StarDust Bum** · 08-30-2012, 04:49 PM

What bettors need to know: Thursday's NCAAF action

The NCAA football season kicks off Thursday with 17 games on the schedule for bettors to choose from. We give you the essential tidbits on five of them to make your wagers.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at UNLV Runnin' Rebels (+8.5, 50)

Jerry Kill's first season as the head coach in Minnesota resulted in a 3-9 record. Kill, a kidney cancer survivor, suffered two seizures last year, including one on the field against New Mexico State on Sept. 10. Minnesota ranked 110th in total offense in 2011 and will rely heavily on senior quarterback MarQueis Gray to improve the offense this season.

UNLV’s passing offense ranked 118th out of 120 FBS programs with an average of just 109.6 YPG. If quarterback Caleb Herring doesn’t show he’s improved since last season, 6-foot-5 freshman Nick Sherry could get a shot at running the offense.

Washington State Cougars at BYU Cougars (-12, 65)

Mike Leach became well known for his "Air Raid" offense while at Texas Tech and will bring similar schemes to Washington State this season. The Cougars ranked ninth in the nation in passing (322.3 YPG) last season and should only improve on that mark under the tutelage of Leach.

BYU is coming off of a 10-3 season and has a returning starter at quarterback. Senior Riley Nelson, who went 6-1 in games he started last season, is already considered a candidate for the 2012 Davey O'Brien Award.

UCLA Bruins at Rice Owls (+15.5, 56)

Jim Mora Jr's first game as a college head coach is on the road against Rice. The Bruins are 60-28-5 all-time in season openers, but are still searching for a No. 1 quarterback to lead the offense this season. Senior Richard Brehaut is the most likely candidate for the starting gig, but Kevin Prince and redshirt freshman Brett Hundley have been impressive in camp.

The Owls missed the bowl season for the third consecutive season and finished fourth in the C-USA's West Division last year. Head coach David Bailiff spent a significant amount of time reviewing Arizona State tape with his players to break down the schemes that Noel Mazzone, UCLA’s new offensive coordinator, used during his tenure with the Sun Devils.

South Carolina Gamecocks (9) at Vanderbilt Commodores (+7, 46)

South Carolina quarterback Connor Shaw missed most of practice Thursday because of back spasms, just a week before the ninth-ranked Gamecocks open the season at Vanderbilt. Shaw is a junior beginning his first full season as starting quarterback. He took over last fall for Stephen Garcia, who was dismissed from the program.

Running back Warren Norman will see his first game action since Oct. 30, 2010, because of injuries. Remember, Norman broke Herschel Walker’s SEC single-season freshman all-purpose yardage record in 2009 and should be a force this season for Vandy.

Central Florida Knights at Akron Zips (+23.5, 46.5)

The Knights hold a 21-12 record in openers and have won their last six. The Knights went 5-7 in 2011 with a 3-5 mark in Conference USA. Central Florida had six selections to the C-USA All-Freshman Team, marking the most by a league school since 2008.

The Zips have six quarterbacks on their roster, five of which are either freshmen or redshirt freshmen. The only pivot with collegiate experience is senior Dalton Williams, who was the backup quarterback at Stephen F. Austin from 2008-11. The Zips are 3-0 all-time when hosting the Knights.

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