The Bum's Aug-Sept College Football Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Nebraska hosts C-USA champ Southern Miss Saturday

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES (0-0)
at NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (0-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Nebraska -19½, Total: 53

No. 17 Nebraska has high hopes for 2012, but its season-opening game against Conference USA champion Southern Mississippi on Saturday could pose quite a challenge.

The Eagles finished 12-2 last season, scoring 36.9 PPG, but no longer have star QB Austin Davis, who is now in the NFL. The Huskers had an up-and-down season, but still finished with a 9-4 record in their inaugural Big Ten season. The last time these teams met was in 2004 when Southern Miss upset the Cornhuskers 21-17 as a 14½-point road underdog. New Golden Eagles coach Ellis Johnson inherits strong RB and WR groups, and his experience as an SEC defensive coordinator (four years at South Carolina) should make USM’s defense a strength. Nebraska’s option running game will roll with QB Taylor Martinez and RB Rex Burkhead, who combined for 2,231 rushing yards and 24 TD last season. The Huskers defense lacks the proven playmakers that have historically made them a fearsome unit, but this is still a very tough defense.

Can the Huskers open their 2012 season with a blowout victory? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Junior Chris Campbell will start under center for Southern Miss, marking his collegiate debut. The good news is that he has solid weapons to use in the passing game in speedy WR Tracy Lampley (1,037 total yards, 7 total TD) and 6-foot-4 converted TE Markese Triplett. But this offense will rely mostly on senior RB Desmond Johnson, who rushed for 5.7 yards per carry last season. Do-it-all junior back Jeremy Hester (4.9 YPC) will also spell Johnson when needed. Former Memphis head man Tommy West takes over as defensive coordinator and has some talent on the defensive line and secondary. Southern Miss will have to rely on green players at the linebacker positions to round out a defense that could be strong again (20.8 PPG, 26th in nation) if recruits and transfers are ready to contribute right away.

Martinez and Burkhead return to the option offense where they rushed for 874 yards and 1,357 yards, respectively. This duo helped Nebraska to a healthy 217 rushing YPG last year, good for 15th in the nation. The problem arises when Martinez is forced to throw the football. He completed just 56% of his passes in 2011 for 2,089 yards (7.3 YPA), 13 TD and 8 INT. Martinez, who reached 200 passing yards just twice last season, also took 21 sacks. Part of the reason Martinez struggles to throw the football is because the Huskers don’t have great receivers to rely on. Nebraska returns seven defensive starters to a unit that gave up 159 rushing YPG last year, which ranked 64th in FBS. The Blackshirts defense needs to be more opportunistic in 2012 after forcing just 18 turnovers in 13 games last year.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Saturday's games
Top games

Navy has beaten Notre Dame three of last five years; they're 9-6 against spread in last 15 series games. Over last decade, Middies are 24-9 vs the spread as a road underdog- they're 12-6 overall as underdog under Coach Nuimatalolo. Irish QB Rees is suspended for this game; Notre Dame has seven other starters back on offense, six on defense, with three starters back on OL. Over last four years, disciplined Navy is +40 in its turnover ratio- they only lost by a FG at a good South Carolina squad LY.

Penn State starts new era here, having covered just four of last 17 tries as a home favorite. Lions are starting seven seniors on defense but return only four starters on defense, five on offense. Since '09, State is 2-12 vs spread in non-league games. Ohio U is 27-14 SU last three years, playing in bowls (1-2) all three years; they're 8-4 vs spread in last dozen tries as a road underdog. Bobcats have 3rd-year starting QB in Tettleton who is best QB on this field, and eight starters back on defense.

Home side won both Northwestern-Syracuse games when these teams met in '08-'09; underdogs are 17-8 vs spread in Northwestern's last 25 road games. Wildcats lost six starters on both sides of ball; their QB has made six career starts, but three of those were at WR. Northwestern is 11-17 vs spread in last 28 non-league games. Since '07, Syracuse is 12-20 vs spread in Carrier Dome, 17-29 SU since '05. Orange lost six starters on defense but does have a senior QB- they better not be looking ahead to next week's game with USC at Giants Stadium.

Boston College (+13.5) won 24-17 at Miami LY, in last game played by both teams; Eagles were +3 in turnovers in teams' first meeting since '07. Miami won four of last five visits here, with underdogs covering four of those five games. 'canes are just 41-35 since '06, 13-10 vs spread on road since '08. Eagles have ten starters back on offense, four on OL, seven on defense; their QB has 21 career starts. BC is just 6-7 SU in its last 13 home games, 3-10 vs spread. Miami lost six of last seven road openers.

Colorado won seven of last nine games with Colorado State, with faves covering five of last six, as both sides have fallen on hard times. State has 7 starters back on offense, 3 on OL, 8 on defense and new HC in former Alabama OC McElwain, who is breaking in new QB. Rams are 17-24 vs spread in non-league games over last decade. Buffs have only 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defene; they've had six losing years in row. New QB is a transfer from Texas, so he could be an upgrade over Hansen. Since 2008, Colorado is 2-5 against spread as the favorite.

Clemson put up 624 yards in 38-24 win over Auburn LY, avenging OT loss to Newton-led War Eagles year before. Another new QB and shaky WRs for Auburn squad that slipped to 8-5 in first year post-Cam; they're 8-9 vs spread away from home in Chizik era, 7-7 as an underdog. Clemson spent serious $$$ on defensive assistants in offseason, after giving up 70 points in bowl meltdown. Clemson is 14-11 vs spread last 25 games as favorite, but covered just three of last 11 on neutral fields. Boyd has good year in first season as Clemson QB (33 TD, 12 INT).

Proud Michigan program getting 14 points on a neutral field? Since '07, Wolverines are 7-11 vs spread as underdog, but they've got senior QB here with 27 career starts (1,349 YR, 2,173 PY LY). Problem for them is this; since '08, Alabama is 28-16 vs spread when favored. Tide is 48-6 in last four seasons- they crushed Michigan State 49-7 in bowl game two years ago. Junior QB McCarron threw only five INTs in 328 passes LY and won national title. Tide did lose five starters on offense, six more on defense and they have new OC in former Saints' QB Nussmeier.

Washington has trip to LSU on deck, better not look past San Diego St, squad that is 6-3 vs spread as road underdog last three years. Aztecs are breaking in new QB and three new starters on OL, but Huskies lost their bowl 67-56 LY, so the OC got a better job and the DC got fired- they've got 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense. Huskies' QB Price has 13 career starts; both his starting tackles are new this season. Washington is 6-4 as home favorite under Sarkisian, after it was 5-19 as home favorite from '02-'08.

UAB is 4-3 in its last seven games vs Troy State; teams split couple of 1-point decisions the last two years. Trojans gained 520+ total yards in last three meetings, but lost three of last four visits here, with two of the three losses by a single point. Blazers lost seven starters on defense and four on offense; they're 7-3-1 vs spread as home underdogs since 2008. Troy has nine starters back on offense, six on defense from 3-9 team, the worst in Blakeney's 21 years with Trojans, who are 3-7 vs spread as a road favorite the last three seasons.

Duke (+4) won 31-27 at Florida International LY, after trailing by 10 in 4th quarter; FIU outgained them 568-394, throwing ball for 392 yards. Blue Devils have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense-- they're 4-3-1 vs spread as home favorite under Cutcliffe. Panthers are 7-6/8-5 last two seasons, first two winning year for program that started in '04. FIU has 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense from that that lost to Marshall in Beef O'Brady's Bowl, 20-10. FIU is breaking in new QB but has four starters back on offensive line.

[StarDust Bum]

Here is my Best Bets Day Games. Evening Games post later.

Just sides no totals............Good Luck !

NCAAF

Saturday, September 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Notre Dame - 9:00 AM ET Notre Dame -17 500
Navy -

Troy - 12:00 PM ET Troy -6 500
Alabama-Birmingham -

Buffalo - 12:00 PM ET Georgia -37.5 500
Georgia -

Northwestern - 12:00 PM ET Northwestern -1.5 500
Syracuse -

Miami (Ohio) - 12:00 PM ET Miami (Ohio) +22.5 500
Ohio State -

Ohio - 12:00 PM ET Ohio +6 500
Penn State -

Marshall - 12:00 PM ET Marshall +24 500
West Virginia -

Western Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Illinois -10 500
Illinois -

Nevada - 3:00 PM ET California -10.5 500
California -

Bowling Green - 3:30 PM ET Florida -29 500
Florida -

Tulsa - 3:30 PM ET Iowa State +1.5 500
Iowa State -

Miami - 3:30 PM ET Miami +1 500
Boston College -

Southern Mississippi - 3:30 PM ET Southern Mississippi +19.5 500
Nebraska -

Iowa - 3:30 PM ET Iowa -10 500
Northern Illinois -

Colorado State - 4:00 PM ET Colorado State +6 500
Colorado -

[StarDust Bum]

Evening Games:


Florida International - 7:00 PM ET Florida International +4 500
Duke -

Hawaii - 7:30 PM ET Southern California -39.5 500
Southern California -

Texas State - 8:00 PM ET Houston -36.5 500
Houston -

Wyoming - 8:00 PM ET Texas -29 500
Texas -

Rutgers - 8:00 PM ET Rutgers -20 500
Tulane -

Michigan - 8:00 PM ET Michigan +13 500
Alabama -

San Diego State - 10:30 PM ET San Diego State +14.5 500
Washington -

Oklahoma - 10:30 PM ET Oklahoma -30.5 500
Texas El Paso -

Toledo - 10:30 PM ET Toledo +10 500
Arizona -

Arkansas State - 10:30 PM ET Oregon -35.5 500
Oregon -

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday........

13) Alabama was dominant in waxing Michigan 41-14 at JerryWorld, not the best game for a national TV audience. Just being a mobile QB ain't going to be enough to beat a quality SEC defense. Too much team speed. Denard Robinson is a fine player, but he's a sub-standard passer, and it showed.

12) Syracuse outgained Northwestern 596-337, but Wildcats ran a punt back for a TD and had a defensive TD in a wild 42-41 win. Northwestern scored winning TD with 0:44 left, on a drive helped greatly by a personal foul on a late hit by the Orange. Very bad loss for Syracuse.

11) Oklahoma was tied 7-7 at halftime with UTEP, before pulling away for a 24-7 win. Miners tried a fake punt in their own territory when it was 10-7, and that blew up in their face.

10) West Virginia coach Dana Holgorson has been HC/OC for 80 college games; his teams scored 40+ points in 41 of those 80 games.

9) Bad starts to season for Pitt/Middle Tennessee/Memphis, which all lost to I-AA teams Saturday. Cruddy way to start your season.

8) Savannah State got $385,000 to go to Stillwater and get pummeled 84-0 by Oklahoma State; game drew 55,784, so if the average ticket was $20, OSU took in $1,115,680. Next time, schedule a better opponent, or hold the score down. Winning a game 84-0 makes you look like a bully.

7) Texas-San Antonio won 33-31 at South Alabama, in matchup of couple teams playing their first game in I-AA. Roadrunners got a 51-yard FG with 0:16 left for the dramatic winning points.

6) Arizona's kicker wasn't as fortunate, missing on 23/25-yard attempts, but his Wildcat teammates beat Toledo 24-17 in OT, making Rich Rodriguez' debut in Tucson a happy, albeit a tense one.

5) Clemson gave up 70 points in their bowl game LY, so they went out and spent a small fortune on Brent Venables to run their defense. Tigers beat Auburn 26-19, making that money dollars well-spent, at least last night.

4) Ohio U's Tyler Tettleton was 31-41/324 passing, led three TD drives in second half as the Bobcats rallied from down 14-3 at the half to win 24-14 at Penn State, spoling the coaching debut of Bill O'Brien.

3) If you took Oregon -36 last night, my condolences; Ducks led 50-10 at halftime, then called off dogs as Arkanas State "rallied" to lose but cover the spread 57-34.

2) College football has a new rule where if a kid's helmet comes off, he has to sit out the next play; this hurt Northwestern, which had to change its QB on a 3rd-and-5 play with 5:45 left when they led 35-33.

1) Highlight of the day though, was actor Terry Kiser, age 73, throwing out the first pitch in Oakland last night, as part of the A's Weekend at Bernie's promotion. Kiser played Bernie Lomax in the classic 1989 film, which has become popular in Oakland because of the A's recent success.

[StarDust Bum]

Kentucky Visits Louisville In Bluegrass Rivalry

The college football battle between the Louisville Cardinals and Kentucky Wildcats may not be as good as the hardwood version, but it’s always a fierce matchup.

This contest takes place Sunday at 3:30 pm (ET) from the strangely named Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium in Louisville. The ratings should be pretty high on ESPN with two just Division I games that day and the NFL season still on hiatus.

The Don Best college football odds screen has Louisville between 13-13½ point home favorites. The total is sitting at 42.

The Cardinals are considered the best team in a weakened Big East that just lost West Virginia to the Big 12. Those two squads finished in a 3-way tie for the regular season crown last year (5-2 straight up), with West Virginia playing in the Orange Bowl due to a tiebreaker.

Coach Charlie Strong begins his third season at Louisville with the two previous years finishing 7-6. He is certainly encouraged by last year’s strong finish, 5-2 SU in the final seven, and bettors loved the 7-2 against the spread mark in the final nine.

Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater returns for his sophomore season after being the first true frosh to start for the team since 1976. The 6-foot-3 Miami native threw for an average of 220 yards his final five games ('over' 4-1) after 181.8 YPG in his first five ('under' 5-0) after becoming the starter on October 1.

Bridgewater has three of his four top receivers back from last year, but that was before Michaelee Harris (knee) was lost for the season earlier this month. It looks like a running back by committee with the starter still not announced, although junior Dominique Brown (533 yards last year) should have the inside track.

Strong made his name as a defensive coordinator at Florida and the 'D' was 10th in the country in rushing last year (100.5 YPG) and 23rd in total yards (327.9 YPG). Six starters are back, including the whole secondary, with safety Hakeem Smith the big name there.

Kentucky went 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS in 2011, with one of those wins and covers against FCS Jacksonville State. The record in the SEC was 2-6 SU (4-4 ATS) and an even worse conference finish is predicted by many this year.

If there is improvement, it will have to come from the offense, ranked 118th out of 120 teams in total yards (259.8 YPG). Sophomore Maxwell Smith has been named the starter for Sunday and he played in eight games last year (starting three) and should develop after throwing for 819 yards last year.

Smith will benefit from having senior receiver La’Rod King (598 yards, seven TDs) back. Senior CoShik Williams leads the running back candidates, but there are questions along the left side of the offensive line.

The defense lost six starters (including all the linebackers) from a group that was 58th nationally at 377 YPG allowed.

These in-state rivals have met every year since 1994 and it’s been streaky. Louisville won last year 24-17 as 4½-point road ‘dogs. Kentucky took the prior four games (3-1 ATS).

[StarDust Bum]

Kentucky-Louisville clash Sunday afternoon


KENTUCKY WILDCATS (0-0)
at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (0-0)

Kickoff: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Louisville -13, Total: 42

A fierce in-state rivalry resumes on Sunday afternoon when Kentucky visits No. 25 Louisville in the regular-season opener for both schools.

Although Louisville is the heavy favorite here, Kentucky has won four of five in this storied rivalry. Last year, the Cardinals ended a four-year drought with a 24-17 win playing on the road in Lexington. UK’s offense was simply atrocious last season, as its 15.8 PPG was the fourth-lowest total in the nation. However, sophomore QB Maxwell Smith has had a great spring and is expected to move the ball more effectively this year. The Wildcats D was mediocre last year, and their entire starting LB and CB units need replacing. Louisville has high hopes for sophomore QB Teddy Bridgewater, who just may be the Big East’s most talented player. The Cardinals’ defensive front is the key to a solid stop unit. Both teams have trends working against them, as Kentucky is 3-9 ATS in its past 12 non-home games, but Louisville is just 6-12 ATS at home over the past three seasons.

Will the Cardinals be able to blow out their rival in the season opener? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Smith certainly struggled on the road last year, completing just 33-of-73 passes (45%) for 321 yards (4.4 YPA), 2 TD and 4 INT. His team scored just 18 points in the two road games Smith started last year. He is one of 26 sophomores or redshirt freshman for the Wildcats this season, which is why it is so imperative that senior WR La’Rod King continues to get open. King had a team-high 598 receiving yards and 7 TD last season. Kentucky lost a huge chunk of its defense last year, with the departed players accounting for 58% of its tackles, 50% of the sacks and 87% of the interceptions last season. But recently, the Wildcats have done a nice job on defense in this rivalry. Since 2008, they have allowed an average of 17.3 PPG in the four meetings.

The Cardinals are the favorites to win the Big East thanks mostly to Teddy Bridgewater, who led his team to a 5-1 record to finish the regular season, scoring 10 total TD with just four interceptions in this stretch. He has bulked up 27 pounds in the offseason to 222 pounds, and his added strength has head coach Charlie Strong excited about his prospects this year. They will miss top receiver Michaelee Harris, who tore his ACL last week, but junior RB Dominique Brown (533 rush yds, 4 TD) expects to give the Cards a nice pass/run balance. This excellent defense returns 10 starters, led by All-Big East safety Hakeem Smith. But the strength of this team is the defensive line that was integral in stopping the run (101 rush YPG allowed, 10th in nation) and generating 33 sacks.

[StarDust Bum]

Not a good start yesterday 9 - 18 overall....Best Bets 5 - 5

Morning Best Bets go 3 - 2

Night Best Bets go 2 - 3

Today's Games:


Sunday, September 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Kentucky - 3:30 PM ET Louisville -13.5 500

Louisville - Over 42 500

Southern Methodist - 6:30 PM ET Southern Methodist +10.5 500

Baylor - Over 58.5 500

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Hokies Host Yellow Jackets In ACC Opener

Techies will be out in full force Monday night when ACC rivals Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech get their seasons underway in a nationally televised contest that some predict will decide the Coastal Division title of the ACC.

ESPN's broadcast from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, VA begins at 8:00 p.m. (ET). Virginia Tech opened as a touchdown favorite with the spread now -7½ on the Hokies at most shops monitored by the Don Best Pro Odds. Monday's scoreboard hurdle is in the 48½-49 point range.

History is behind the notion that this game will determine the Coastal Division representative for the ACC Championship Game to be played in Charlotte on Dec. 1. Since splitting into two divisions for the 2005 season, the Hokies and Yellow Jackets have won every Coastal title, five times for Va Tech and twice by Georgia Tech, each time decided by the victor in this rivalry.

The Hokies have claimed the past two division crowns, beating Florida State in the 2010 ACC title tilt and losing last year to Clemson.

If Monday's winner does indeed go on to the conference championship, it will likely be resolved when Georgia Tech's potent option offense is on the field against a Virginia Tech defense that is picked to be among the best in the country.

Georgia Tech, a 12/1 pick to win the ACC title, has seven starters returning on an offense that finished in the top 20 last year averaging nearly 460 yards per game, more than 300 of that coming on the ground to rank second in that column. Senior QB Tevin Washington is among those seven returning starters, and four more are along the front wall that will be tested Monday night.

Washington paced the Ramblin' Wreck's ground attack with 987 yards rushing, also adding 1,652 yards through the air. However, he failed to complete 50 percent of his passes and had an 11:8 TD-to-interception rate. Washington will be breaking in new receivers with last year's top downfield threat, Stephen Hill, a second-round pick by the New York Jets this past April.

David Sims and Orwin Smith, who finished behind Washington with over 600 yards rushing each a year ago, are back in the fold to complement Paul Johnson's triple option. Both are listed as probable for Monday's contest as Sims works his way back from offseason surgery for a stress fracture in a shin and Smith from a late-season toe injury.

There are also seven defensive starters returning from a unit that surrendered over 160 yards per game on the ground and ranked a middling 60th in the country allowing over 26 points per contest. Virginia Tech, then No. 10 in the country, ran roughshod over the Yellow Jackets in a 37-26 win in Atlanta last November, amassing nearly 270 yards on the ground, all but about 100 of that from ACC Offensive Player of the Year David Wilson.

Georgia Tech won't have to worry about Wilson on Monday after the former Hokie was the 32nd-overall selection in the NFL Draft by the New York Giants. The Ramblin' Wreck will still have to worry about Va Tech junior QB Logan Thomas, however, who was part of all five TDs the Hokies scored in that win, three through the air and two more on the ground.

Michael Holmes, a redshirt freshman from Harrisonburg, VA, is listed at the top of the list to succeed Wilson as the feature back with true freshman JC Coleman waiting in the wings, though he could be red-shirted with junior Martin Scales beginning the season as Holmes' primary backup.

Head coach Frank Beamer may not need much offense considering the potential of his stop unit. Eight starters are back after the Hokies ranked seventh in the country in points allowed (17.6 ppg) and 10th in total defense (304.6 ypg). A very disruptive front wall returns intact, led by end James Gayle (7 sacks in 2011) and tackle Luther Maddy, and they will be complemented by both corners back in the mix, Kyle Fuller and Anton Exum.

Virginia Tech is not listing any significant injuries for the season opener.

[StarDust Bum]

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech

September 1, 2012

For the most part, season openers for BCS schools are at home come against teams from the MAC, WAC and Sun Belt conferences. Of course, there are the high-profile matchups at the Ga. Dome and Cowboys Stadium, but you rarely see a crucial conference game to start the year.

That will certainly be the case Monday night in Blacksburg, where Virginia Tech will take on Georgia Tech in an ACC Coastal showdown

As of Saturday afternoon, most books were listing Virginia Tech as a seven-point favorite with a total of 48 ½. Gamblers can take the Yellow Jackets to win outright for a plus-250 return (risk $100 to win $250).

Frank Beamer’s team went 11-3 last season after losing 23-20 to Michigan in overtime at the Sugar Bowl. The Hokies won the Coastal division, only to get pounded 38-10 by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.

Va. Tech returns just three starters on offense, but one of those is junior quarterback Logan Thomas, who is a beast. Thomas, a tight end coming out of high school, rushed for 627 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2011. He also connected on 59.8 percent of his passes for 3,013 yards with a 19/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Hokies must replace running back David Wilson, who garnered ACC Player of the Year honors by rushing for 1,709 yards and nine TDs last year. Redshirt freshman RB Michael Holmes is expected to get the starting nod and he’ll run behind an offensive line with four new starters.

Va. Tech is inexperienced on offense, but the defense is a veteran-laden unit with nine returning starters. The Hokies gave up 17.6 points per game last year. They are led by Antone Exum, who is moving from safety to cornerback. In 2011, Exum had a team-high 89 tackles, 10 passes broken up, 3.5 tackles for losses, 1.5 sacks, one interception and two QB hurries.

Va. Tech tied for first in the ACC with 41 sacks last season. James Gayle and JR Collins combined for 13 of those sacks.

Bud Foster’s defense will face Ga. Tech’s unique flexbone attack commanded by senior QB Tevin Washington, who had 1,125 rushing yards and 14 TDs in his first full year as the starter. Washington posted an 11/8 TD-INT ratio.

Paul Johnson’s team returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. David Sims and Orwin Smith provide experience in the backfield. Sims had 698 rushing yards and seven TDs last year, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Smith rushed for 615 yards and 11 scores, averaging 10.1 YPC. He also had 13 receptions for 306 yards and one TD.

Ga. Tech finished the 2011 campaign with an 8-5 record, losing 30-27 to Utah at the Sun Bowl. The Yellow Jackets lost 24-7 at Miami in their lone road underdog situation.

During Johnson’s four-year tenure (he’s going into fifth year), Ga. Tech owns an 8-4 spread record in 12 games as a road ‘dog. Meanwhile, Va. Tech limped to an atrocious 1-5 ATS mark in six games as a home ‘chalk’ last season.

When these teams met on The Flats in Midtown Atlanta last year, Va. Tech captured a 37-26 win as a one-point road ‘chalk.’ The 63 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 49 ½-point total.

Thomas completed 7-of-13 throws for 209 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. He also ran for 70 yards and a pair of scores on 18 carries.

Washington had 77 rushing yards and three TDs, including a one-yard plunge to give the Yellow Jackets a 26-21 lead late in the third quarter. However, the Hokies responded with 16 unanswered points.

According to the weather forecast, there’s a 60-percent chance of rain.

Kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The Va. Tech-Ga Tech winner has won the ACC Coastal seven consecutive years.

--Ga. Tech starting LB Daniel Drummond will not play due to a one-game suspension. Drummond finished last season with 44 tackles.

--Tennessee quarterback Tyler Bray looked dynamite in Friday’s 35-21 win over North Carolina St. as a three-point favorite at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta. Bray completed 27-of-41 throws for 332 yards and two TDs without being intercepted.

--Sick stat line from West Virginia QB Geno Smith in his team’s 69-34 win over Marshall: 33-of-37 for 340 yards, four TDs and zero interceptions, eight carries for 65 rushing yards and one TD. Not bad.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 16 Va. Tech hosts Ga. Tech Monday night


GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS (0-0)
at VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (0-0)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Virginia Tech -7, Total: 48½

The ACC season gets underway for both Georgia Tech and No. 16 Virginia Tech when the conference rivals meet in Blacksburg on Monday night.

The Hokies have won four of five against the Yellow Jackets, including last year’s win-and-cover 37-26 victory in which QB Logan Thomas accounted for five touchdowns. Thomas will have a tough time duplicating this feat working behind an inexperienced O-line this season (lost four starters), and practically no experience among the group of running backs either. The Hokies defensive strength is up front, and they’ll stack the box against the Yellow Jackets’ triple-option attack that piled up 317 rushing YPG last year (2nd in FBS). Georgia Tech returns its top three runners, but its seldom-used passing game has no experienced receivers. Both schools have favorable coaching trends here as Ramblin’ Wreck head man Paul Johnson is 35-16 ATS (69%) in away games played on grass fields, while Hokies legend Frank Beamer is 38-18 ATS (68%) when favored between 3½ and 10 points.

Which team will start off its season with victory on Monday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Tevin Washington returns under center to operate this run-heavy Yellow Jackets attack again. He threw for 1,652 yards and ran for 987 yards last year. With four returning starters on the offensive line, he’ll have plenty of holes to run through, and a good amount of protection when he drops back. RBs David Sims (698 rush yds, 5.2 YPC, 7 TD) and Orwin Smith (615 rush yds, 10.1 YPC, 11 TD) are both excellent rushers, who will be counted on even more with the departure of star WR Stephen Hill, leaving the receiving corps pretty thin. Another issue for this Georgia Tech team is its weak defensive line. It’s a unit that has trouble stuffing the run (94th in nation in TFL) and getting after the quarterback (77th in sacks), so somebody will need to step up. That somebody could be 6-foot-7 senior DT T.J. Barnes, who lost more than 25 pounds since last season to get down to about 340. The Jackets allowed 27.7 PPG during a 2-5 slide to end the 2011 campaign.

Thomas was the biggest reason Virginia Tech won 11 of 12 regular season games before losing both the ACC Championship and Sugar Bowl. He finished with a school record 3,862 total yards, passing for 3,013 (7.7 YPA), 19 TD and 10 INT, while rushing for 469 yards and 11 more scores. Georgia Tech had no answer for him last year, when Thomas rolled up 279 total yards and five touchdowns (three passing, two rushing) in the 11-point win. However, the Hokies lost eight offensive starters this year, including ACC Player of the Year RB David Wilson. This forces them to enter 2012 with their top three backs (freshmen Michael Holmes and J.C. Coleman, and senior Martin Scales) without a single collegiate carry. The good news is that the Hokies will have one of the best defensive lines in the country, led by junior DE James Gayle (7 sacks, 12.5 TFL). They stack eight in the box often, with the technique paying off way more than it doesn’t. Virginia Tech ranked tied for sixth in the nation in sacks (41), seventh in scoring defense (17.6 PPG) and 10th in total defense (305 YPG). And now they get back star LB Bruce Taylor who missed the final six games in 2011 with a foot injury.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/02/12 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
09/01/12 9-*18-*0 33.33% -*5400 Detail

Totals 12-*19-*0 38.71% -*4450

Monday, September 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Georgia Tech - 8:00 PM ET Virginia Tech -7 500

Virginia Tech - Under 48.5 500

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Las Vegas Betting Notes

September 2, 2012

The first week of college football action couldn’t have been scripted better by any sports book director in town. Beginning with Thursday night’s opening action and ending Saturday with a flurry of late night house winners, the Las Vegas sports books got the best of the betting public, which is something that couldn’t be said in the first seven weeks of college action last season.

Remember last season when a bettor could simply fill out a parlay card consisting of six or seven of the top-10 teams in the nation and then cash in it regularly? Or how about the public beating the books on nearly every isolated night game? The sports book was almost giving out free money on a weekly basis in 2011 and there wasn’t a spread too high to scare off the masses.

Well the tide has turned, as it always does in the sports betting world. New season. New results. And new trends for the sports books.

It all started Thursday night where the favorites went 5-2 against-the-spread, which normally would be a bad night for the books because the general public always takes the favorites. However, in this instance, the biggest games of the night -- the big isolated television games -- were the two underdogs that won. The majority of parlay tickets on the night had South Carolina laying six points at Vanderbilt and Minnesota laying nine points at UNLV. Vanderbilt and UNLV lost the game outright, but covered the spread.

On Friday, the underdogs went 1-2 ATS with the public jumping all over the high profile ESPN game. Unlike last season, but exactly like the night before, the public choice -- eight-point favorite Michigan State -- won, but didn’t cover the spread. Even the 17-13 score from the South Carolina and Michigan State games were identical.

Going into Saturday’s games the four biggest decisions based on straight bets and parlay risk were Ohio State (-26), Miami-FL (-2 ½), Alabama (-13), and USC (-43). On a normal day of action, losing three out of four big games like that would have been disastrous, but it was the timing of the games in relation to everything else going on that made those games not matter as much in the big picture.

The early wave of games had the makings of being a repeat of the 2011 season, but a few key games thwarted the liability and killed several teasers, money-line parlays and parlay card action to stop the early momentum dead in its tracks.

“The Nevada upset win at Cal really turned the tide for us,” said William Hill sports book director Jimmy Vaccaro. “But the biggest key to our day was USC not covering the spread against Hawaii. The USC game was so pivotal for us.“

No. 1 ranked USC opened as a 38-point favorite three weeks ago at most sports books and by kickoff Saturday they were -43 ½. It seemed like the spread moved a half-point every day. There was no sharp money jumping on board, but almost every other type of money out there had the Trojans to cover the large spread. They were also the last leg of the most popular four-teamer on the day with Ohio State, Miami, and Alabama.

Last year, sports books couldn’t make the spreads high enough on the top teams. This year, they did. Of the seven teams on the regular and added board favored by 29-points, all seven underdogs covered the spread, including one monstrous upset with Houston -- favored by 35 points -- losing outright to Texas State.

William Hill sports books were one of the only bet shops to offer a money-line on the Houston game and one lucky bettor cashed a $3,000 wager on Texas State at 35-to-1 odds. Despite the $105,000 payout, William Hill still posted a strong day on their first college football weekend as an operation in the states.

“It was a very good day for us, with great action throughout all of our books,” said Vaccaro. “The biggest key for us was the night games. I haven’t seen a run of underdogs come on like they did Saturday night in a while.”

Through Saturday’s games, the favorites went 16-22 ATS. The big night TV games went 1-5 ATS and the top-10 teams on the regular board went 1-7 ATS.

All that should give bettors plenty to chew on for next week with something like this going on their minds, "Do I follow what I was successful at last season by taking the top favorites, or do I change up a little and realize some of these spreads are simply too high to mess with, or maybe even take an underdog?"

William Hill Money-Lines Everywhere!
If you are looking for the a money-line on a large spread, there is no need to shop around, just visit your nearest William Hill book or PT's Pub kiosk. Most sports books in Las Vegas don't offer money-lines on games when the spread reaches double-digits. A small portion of books will go as high as a 30-point spread. William Hill is going all in by posting every college football game, no matter what the spread is, with a money-line. This includes all added games and even the extra games board. Very well done and thank you, with much of the credit going to the William Hill operation led by their top bookmaker, Nick Bogdanovich, who loves to gamble and let others do the same.

Bad Beat of the Week
If you had Oregon up 50-10 at halftime while laying 37 points and lost because of a hard-charging Arkansas State squad in the second, you have my sympathies. But the killer of the week had to be those who had the UNDER 52 on UNLV-Minnesota Thursday night. This was a dead 'under' game that eventually got tied 13-13 by the end of regulation and then the offenses exploded in overtime going three extra sessions until Minnesota kicked the winning field to win, 30-27.

[StarDust Bum]

Games to Watch - Week 2

September 3, 2012

Saturday - Florida at Texas A&M (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Matchup Skinny

Florida at Texas A&M

As the old cliché goes, be careful what you wish for…. because it just might come true. This is what Aggie fans wanted, to be out of the shadow of their former archrival the University of Texas, and to be part of the almighty SEC. This Saturday Texas A&M hosts Florida from Kyle Field for its first-ever SEC game. Due to Hurricane Isaac this will also be the Aggies first game of the year after their season opener against Louisiana Tech was postponed until Oct. 13. This will also mark the first game for A&M under new head coach Kevin Sumlin. Despite the enormous amount of pressure that the team and the fans have on themselves to begin the new era of SEC football, A&M does have the benefit of playing at home where they boast one of the loudest stadiums in the country. The fact that Florida has already played a game this year (albeit rather poorly) against Bowling Green should be in Florida's favor. However it may have brought about more questions than answers for the Gators, who once again proved that if you have two quarterbacks, you really have none. With the Kyle Field advantage has the Aggies opening as a field goal favorite.



Saturday - Georgia at Missouri (ESPN2, 7:45 p.m. ET)

Matchup Skinny

Georgia at Missouri

The other team making their SEC debut this weekend under a little softer spotlight is the Missouri Tigers, who will be playing the University of Georgia. Missouri also has the benefit of making its SEC debut at home; however they have a far less home field advantage than its SEC newlywed and it plays a team many have picked to win the SEC East this year. The Dawgs come in on the heels of a less than impressive win over the lowly Buffalo Bulls. Georgia was a 37½-point favorite but only led 24-16 at halftime before pulling away to a 45-23 victory. The bright spot for UGA in week one was Todd Gurley, the freshman playing in his first college game, ran for 100 yards and returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown as well. Mizzou opened the season with a 62-10 victory as it scored early and often against the Southland Conference powerhouse Southeastern Louisiana with punt returns of 72 and 70 yards and a 76-yard TD run. Mizzou led 28-0 after running just 12 plays. Missouri will quickly be reminded that the Southland Conference and the Southeastern Conference show up with two very different caliber players. Despite being rankeds sixth nationally and favored in the division, the Bulldogs are only a field goal favorite against Missouri this weekend.

Saturday - Washington at LSU (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)

Matchup Skinny

Washington at LSU

These two teams last met in 2009 in Washington and LSU managed a 31-23 win that really wasn't that close. This year they meet in Death Valley and that simply doesn't bode well for Washington. LSU is riding a nation-leading 18 game home winning streak and has won 43 of its 49 home games under The Mad Hatter (Les Miles). If that's not enough to get your attention, LSU is a mere 22-0 against non-conference teams in Death Valley under Miles. Basically, they are really good at home. Throw in the fact that Washington is 1-10 in nonconference games away from Husky Stadium since 2001, which tells you that 23-point line seems about right or maybe a tad too low. If you are a Washington fan you can hang your hat on the fact that Washington's QB Keith Price is one of the more under the radar players in college football and the LSU secondary is without Tyrann Mathieu and a handful of other DB;s from last year's stellar squad. Personally, I wouldn't hang a very valuable hat on that but I'm just trying to give you something to look forward to. Let's just say if he ends the night with half of the 400 passing yards and seven touchdowns he put up against Baylor last year in the Alamo Bowl you should feel good about his night. Basically, this game is a great excuse for Washington fans to spend a few days in New Orleans on their way into Baton Rouge. But not even three days on Bourbon Street will help them erase the possible pounding their team is going to get Saturday night in Death Valley.

Other Games to Watch

Matchup Skinny

U of Miami at Kansas St.

These two teams met in a thriller last year in South Beach where Kansas State won 28-24 when they stopped Miami quarterback Jacory Harris on a fourth-down run at the goal line with 49 seconds left. Miami will be looking for revenge this year in Manhattan, so the question becomes which Wildcats team will Miami face? The one that only lead Missouri State 16-9 at the end of the third quarter or the one that scored five touchdowns against Missouri State in the fourth quarter to beat Missouri St 51-9 in Week 1? Kansas St. will need to be much more consistent in week two if they are going to cover the touchdown spread against a Hurricanes team out for redemption under second-year head coach Al Golden. Miami looked sharp on the road last week, earning a 41-32 win over Boston College behind true-freshman running back Randy "Duke" Johnson.

Nebraska at UCLA

The highly scrutinized Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez threw for five touchdowns and 354 yards in the team's 49-20 Week 1 win against a Southern Mississippi defense that most people would say is at least respectable. So the real question is - "Can he repeat those numbers this week against UCLA?" Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Making it even more impressive was that Martinez did it without Rex Burkhead, the Huskers' All-Big Ten running back, who left Saturday's game in the first quarter because of a low-grade sprain to the medial collateral ligament in his left knee. The Huskers head west to face a UCLA team Saturday that has a new head coach in Jim Mora. UCLA did win their opener 49-24 allowing 358 yards and three touchdowns, against Rice. The key words in the previous sentence were "against Rice." Back to the real questions in Week 2 - "Can Martinez repeat his week one performance against an even lesser defense and can UCLA repeat its Week 1 offensive output against a far more superior defense?"

[StarDust Bum]

Week 1 Rewind

September 4, 2012

Alabama may have lost a lot of talent from last year’s national-title squad, but it looked every bit the part of a team determined to become the first to repeat during the BCS Era. The Crimson Tide raced out to a 21-0 lead before Michigan fans could get comfortable in their seats at Cowboys Stadium.

Nick Saban’s bunch was relentless, taking a 31-0 lead on C.J. Mosley’s pick-six of Denard Robinson with 4:31 left until halftime. That quickly, that early, this game was over.

And it was never in doubt. If ‘Bama fans envisioned an assbeating in Arlington, well, that’s exactly what they got. And it looked easy.

A.J. McCarron picked up right where he left off at the Superdome less than eight months ago, throwing a pair of touchdown passes in the first quarter. Freshman sensation T.J. Yeldon needed only 11 carries for 111 rushing yards and one touchdown.

As for Saban’s defense that lost six starters and four players to the first round of the NFL Draft, it acquitted itself quite well. Just ask Robinson, who rushed for only 27 yards and completed merely 11-of-26 passes and was intercepted twice.

Arkansas better be ready when the Tide comes to Fayetteville in Week 3.

Oregon failed to cover the number in a 57-34 win over Arkansas St. in Gus Malzahn’s debut, but nobody should be fooled by that misleading final score. The Ducks sprinted out to a 50-3 lead midway through the second quarter thanks to three TDs from De’Anthony Thomas (one rushing, two receiving) and a pair of TD runs from Kenjon Barner.

Matt Barkley threw four TD passes in USC’s 49-10 win over Hawaii, but Norm Chow’s team covered the number as a 42-point underdog. Likewise, LSU came up short in its bid to please its backers in a 41-14 win over North Texas. Les Miles’s bunch hosts Washington next week, while the Trojans venture to the Meadowlands to face Syracuse.

Speaking of the ‘Cuse, QB Ryan Nassib rallied his team from a 35-13 deficit into a 41-35 advantage late in the fourth quarter vs. Northwestern at the Carrier Dome. Nassib threw for 470 yards and four second-half TD passes, but the Wildcats prevailed 42-41 when Trevor Siemian found Demetrius Fields on a nine-yard scoring strike in the final minute.

Northwestern will host Vanderbilt this week after the Commodores lost a 17-13 decision to South Carolina on Thursday. James Franklin’s team managed to take the cash as a 6 ½-point underdog, but Marcus Lattimore rushed for 110 yards and two TDs for the Gamecocks, who will host East Carolina and might be without QB Connor Shaw (‘questionable’ as of Tuesday with a bruised shoulder).

There were four ranked teams that looked awful but found ways to scratch out sketchy victories. This quartet includes Florida, Stanford, Wisconsin and Oklahoma, each of whom was lucky to dodge upset bids from the likes of Bowling Green, San Jose St., No. Iowa and UTEP, respectively.

Michigan St. had to overcome three interceptions by new starting quarterback Andrew Maxwell to rally past Boise St. for a 17-13 win. Le’Veon Bell carried the Spartans to victory with 44 carries for 210 yards and two TDs, including a five-yard scamper for the go-ahead score with 8:12 remaining.

Clemson was without star WR Sammy Watkins for its lid-lifter against Auburn at the Ga. Dome. Senior RB Andre Ellington rushed for 231 yards and Tajh Boyd threw for 201 yards and one TD, as Dabo Swinney’s squad knocked off Auburn 23-16 as a 2 ½-point ‘chalk.’

FSU cruised to an easy win over Murray St, but star DE Brandon Jenkins (8 sacks in 2011) was lost for the season with a broken foot. Staying in the ACC, Va. Tech needed a 41-yard field goal by Cody Journell on the last play of regulation to force overtime at home against Ga. Tech. Then the Hokies’ Kyle Fuller intercepted Tevin Washington on a 3rd-and-goal play to start OT and set up Journell’s game-winning FG for a 20-17 triumph.

Louisville looked like the team to beat in the Big East after spanking Kentucky 32-14 as a 14-point home favorite Sunday at Papa John’s Stadium. Watch out for the Cardinals, who have an improving sophomore QB in Teddy Bridgewater that appears to have the makings of a star player.

The Urban Meyer Era in Columbus got off to a slow start when Ohio St. trailed Miami (OH.) 3-0 at the end of the first quarter. But that deficit was erased fast and the Buckeyes dominated the final three stanzas en route to a 56-10 victory.

Notre Dame pleased all of Ireland by trouncing Navy 50-10 as a 15 ½-point favorite in Dublin. Theo Riddick rushed 19 times for 107 yards and two TDs to pace the Irish, who face three consecutive Big Ten foes in the coming weeks.

Houston and Pitt were the most embarrassing performers of Week 1. The Cougars were favored by 34.5 against Texas St. in its FBS debut, but the Bobcats were dominant in a 30-13 win. They can make even more noise this week when Texas Tech visits San Marcos. (By the way, Texas St. is coached by none other than Dennis Franchione, who is no longer a popular man in College Station or Tuscaloosa.)

Youngstown St. went into Heinz Field and ruined the debut of new Pitt head coach Paul Chryst, the former Wisconsin offensive coordinator. The Panthers lost by a 31-17 count.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Jeff Tedford’s hot seat at Cal got even warmer Saturday when Nevada went into newly-renovated Memorial Stadium and captured a 31-24 win as a 12-point underdog. Stefphon Jefferson was a workhorse for the Wolf Pack, rushing 34 times for 145 yards and three TDs, including the game winner from two yards out with 36 ticks left. Cody Fajardo completed 25-of-32 passes for 230 yards and also rushed for 97 yards on 21 carries. Nevada hosts South Florida in Week 2.

--With its 32-14 loss at Louisville as a 14-point underdog, Kentucky fell to 2-7 ATS as a road ‘dog on Joker Phillips’ watch. The Cardinals yanked star sophomore QB Teddy Bridgewater late in the third quarter, as Charlie Strong clearly didn’t want to embarrass his friend across the sidelines, one that’s feeling the heat in Lexington. Bridgewater looked outstanding by completing 19-of-21 passes for 232 yards.

--Biggest Winners of Week 1:
1-Alabama
2-Nevada
3-Tennessee
4-Clemson
5-Ohio

--Biggest Losers of Week 1:
1-Houston
2-Pitt
3-Florida
4-Stanford
5-North Carolina St.

--Best Week 2 Games:
1-Georgia at Missouri
2-Nebraska at UCLA
3-South Florida at Nevada
4-Florida at Texas A&M
5-Oklahoma St. at Arizona

--Heisman Rankings:
1-Matt Barkley (USC)
2-Geno Smith (West Va.)
3-Le’Veon Bell (Michigan St.)
4-Tyler Wilson (Arkansas)
5-Marcus Lattimore (South Carolina)

--Toledo came up short in its bid to spoil R-Rod’s debut at Arizona, as the Wildcats won 24-17 in overtime. Gamblers should note the travel for the Rockets in back-to-back weeks, as they go to Wyoming this Saturday as three-point underdogs. Meanwhile, R-Rod’s bunch will take on Oklahoma St., which beat Savannah 84-0 in its opener. As of Tuesday, the Cowboys were favored by 13 at Arizona.