The Bum's NBA Playoffs Previews and Best Bets !

[tech fan]

Gl tonight buddy

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Chicago Bulls look to charge past Hawks

The Chicago Bulls can end their 13-year hiatus between conference final appearances when they visit the Atlanta Hawks in Game 6 of their series Thursday night.

The Don Best odds screen has the Bulls as 3 ½-point road favorites with a total of 179 points for the 5:00 p.m. (PT) tip at Philips Arena. They’re in great position, leading the series 3-2.

Chicago hasn’t made the conference finals since winning three consecutive titles ending in 1998. That last team was led by a 34-year-old Michael Jordan, while the current version has its own superstar in 22-year-old Derrick Rose.

Rose has already been named regular season MVP and is doing little this postseason to question that judgment. His averages of 32 points and 9.2 assists this series are certainly Jordan-esque, although they are different types of players.

Game 5 in Chicago on Tuesday was Rose’s latest exploits. He scored 33 points, including 11 in the fourth quarter when the Bulls outscored Atlanta 26-15, pulling away for a 95-83 victory as 8 ½-point favorites. Luol Deng added 23 points to lead the supporting cast.

Chicago improved to 3-2 against the spread this series and 5-5 ATS in the playoffs. Atlanta is 7-4 ATS in the postseason after going 5-1 ATS against Orlando in the first round.

The 178 combined points scored last game went ‘under’ the 180-point total. The ‘over’ is still 3-2 this series with both games in Atlanta leaning that way.

The Bulls know the sledding will be much tougher on the road Thursday. They won Game 3 in Atlanta 99-82, but it took a Herculean effort from Rose (44 points, 16-of-27 from the floor) to get it done. That’s the only game he’s shot over 50 percent.

Atlanta won Game 4 at home last Sunday to tie up the series. Rose was just 12-of-32 from the field (37.5 percent), although he still had 34 points. Either Deng or Carlos Boozer need to come up big offensively, with the latter less likely with his turf toe injury.

The Hawks have their backs against the wall and can’t afford to think past Game 6. Point guard Jeff Teague (21 points) led them in scoring last game and while he’s been a revelation filling in for Kirk Hinrich, he not the guy who should be taking charge offensively.

The Hawks biggest flaw is they don’t have a superstar to match Rose. Guard Joe Johnson is the closest they have, but he’s simply just a very good player. Johnson is averaging 29 PPG in the two wins and 13.7 PPG in the three losses, showing his immense value to their success. A 20-plus point effort is badly needed.

Big men Josh Smith and Al Horford are averaging 15.4 PPG and 11.4 PPG respectively in this series. They need to be aggressive scoring and on the boards. Atlanta is even on the glass in the two wins and down heavily in the losses (-12 differential per game).

Coach Larry Drew is having a hard time with his bench. Sixth-man Jamal Crawford was 1-of-9 last game for two points. He’s averaging just 10.8 PPG this series after leading the team against Orlando (20.5 PPG). Zaza Pachulia had 13 point off the pine last game, but can’t be counted on again and Crawford needs to regain his form – quickly.

The Don Best injury report is looking sparse with only Hinrich (hamstring) expected to miss this series. Boozer and Rose (ankle) are playing through their respective injuries.

Atlanta is 4-1 SU and ATS at home this postseason, winning three games against Orlando as 1 ½-point ‘dogs each time. Chicago is 2-2 SU and ATS on the road in the playoffs. It went 1-1 SU and ATS at Indiana.

The Bulls can play a little looser on Thursday knowing they have a Game 7 in their back pocket Sunday at the United Center. TNT will have the broadcast if necessary.

[StarDust Bum]

Game 6, Bulls at Hawks

May 12, 2011


Chicago took a 3-2 series lead over Atlanta in the Eastern Conference semifinals Tuesday night at the United Center. The Bulls broke open a tight game and pulled away late in the fourth quarter for a 95-83 win as nine-point favorites.

Gamblers holding a Hawks’ money-line ticket for a return in the plus-375 range (risk $100 to win $375) had to like their chances early in the fourth quarter with Larry Drew’s team took the outright lead. However, Atlanta went cold from the field in the final stanza and the Bulls outscored it 26-15.

The 178 combined points in Game 5 stayed ‘under’ the 180-point total. The Bulls will go for the kill shot Thursday night at Philips Arena.

For Game 6, most betting shops opened Chicago (69-23 straight up, 54-32-2 against the spread) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 179. Those numbers were holding steady as of early this morning.

Derrick Rose scored a game-high 33 points and dished out nine assists compared to just two turnovers. Luol Deng scored 23 points and did an excellent job of defending Joe Johnson, who Deng forced into a crucial turnover when the Bulls were in the midst of the deciding fourth-quarter run.

Jeff Teague was spectacular for Atlanta once again. With veteran PG Kirk Hinrich sidelined for the series, I penned these remarks in my preview of this series: With [Hinrich’s injury] in mind, second-year PG Jeff Teague will see increased minutes. Like his predecessor Mike Woodson, Drew has been hesitant to give young players major minutes so the jury on Teague is still out. What he does have is big-time quickness that’ll be tested when he defends Rose.

Then in concluding my thoughts on this East semis matchup, I added that “Teague will certainly get his chance to step up [and] it’s not like the Wake Forest product is some scrub. He’s got loads of talent and a great opportunity.”

Well, Teague has taken full advantage and then some. In fact, he’s the main reason we’ve had a competitive series and that this best-of-seven could go the distance. In Game 5, Teague scored a team-high 21 points – again – and played turnover-free basketball – again. He also dished out seven assists.

For the series, Teague is averaging 17.0 points, 4.4 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game. He has more steals (six) than turnovers (five).

Josh Smith was a monster in Game 4 and he brought that same fight and energy to Chicago. He finished with 16 points and seven rebounds and stood up to Carlos Boozer when the Duke product threw an elbow that landed on Smith’s face. The near-melee resulted in double-technicals.

Joe Johnson has played the best postseason series of his career against the Bulls, but he didn’t have his best game Tuesday. Johnson scored 15 points but contributed only three assists and two rebounds on a 6-for-15 shooting night. Al Horford produced 12 points, 10 rebounds and three blocked shots, but he also committed four costly turnovers.

Zaza Pachulia was a major factor off the bench for the Hawks, scoring 13 points and grabbing four rebounds. However, top reserve Jamal Crawford had his worst game of the playoffs with merely two points on 1-of-9 shooting from the floor.

Even though Atlanta lost Game 5, it came to play and had a number of things to feel good about. Despite trailing by 15 points early in the first quarter, the Hawks trimmed the deficit to six by intermission. By the late stages of the third quarter, the Bulls and Hawks were exchanging lead changes.

Yes, the Bulls now have the advantage and can smell blood in the water, but nothing is complete yet. The Hawks had their chances Tuesday in Ch-Town even though Johnson and Crawford weren’t at their best. Smith summed up the tone in Atlanta’s locker room after Game 5, telling the Associated Press, “This series is far from over.”

VegasInsider.com's Chris David offered up his take on some series bets. He said, “Bettors that enjoy playing future numbers might want to take a look at Atlanta on a series price of plus-900 (Bet $100 to win $900). Home teams have done well in the playoffs and if the Hawks can take Game 6, then you’re going to have possible hedge opportunities in the finale on Sunday. Rather than take Atlanta on the money-line (+140) tonight, the better option is putting a half-unit or unit on the series wager.”

The ‘under’ is 55-38 overall for the Hawks, 27-19 in their home games. However, the ‘over’ is 3-2 in this series, 9-2 in the 11 head-to-head meetings between these clubs in Atlanta and 11-5 in the last 16 head-to-head’s regardless of the venue.

The ‘under’ is 52-40 overall for Chicago, 24-21 in its road assignments.

Tip-off for Thursday’s Game 6 is slated for 8:05 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Tim Donaghy on P-Hours tonight!

May 12, 2011


On tonight’s edition of the Power Hours on VI Radio, Kevin Rogers and Brian Edwards will be breaking down the NBA Playoffs, including tonight’s Game 6 at Philips Arena between the Hawks and Bulls.

Most importantly, the Power Hours will have a special guest in former NBA official Tim Donaghy, who was a ref in 772 NBA regular-season games and another 20 postseason contests.

Tim Donaghy has a unique knowledge of the relationships between officials and specific coaches and players. He’s been sharing that sort of knowledge and more by blogging and co-hosting a radio show all season long on Danny Berrelli’s website that’s found by clicking here.

We plan on picking Tim Donaghy’s brain with his opinions on tonight’s game in Atlanta and Saturday’s Game 6 back in Memphis. Also, we’ll touch on the Heat and Mavs, in addition to the demise of the Lakers and Celtics.

Tim Donaghy has recently written a book that touches on all things NBA, including a run-in with Rasheed Wallace and being one of the officials during the infamous Pacers-Pistons brawl back in 2004. Donaghy’s book, Personal Foul: A First-Person Account of the Scandal that Rocked the NBA, is a must-get for all hardcore NBA fans and those that like to make the occasional wager.

During our conversation, we'll let him tell you about some of the interesting stories you'll read about in his book.

Don’t miss out on tonight’s Power Hours with a guest that’ll bring unparalleled knowledge of everything you need to know before making your NBA bets! If you can’t listen live at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, then make sure to check out our archive page that’ll be updated later tonight.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - Second Round

May 12, 2011


Second Round Results


Favorites are 13-6 straight up
Favorites are 13-6 against the spread
The 'over' is 13-6
Home teams are 12-7

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Sunday, May 1
Memphis (+6.5) Oklahoma City 114-101 UNDERDOG OVER 195
Boston Miami (-5) 99-90 FAVORITE OVER 181

Monday, May 2
Atlanta (+9) Chicago 103-95 UNDERDOG OVER 177.5
Dallas (+6) L.A. Lakers 96-94 UNDERDOG OVER 188.5

Tuesday, May 3
Boston Miami (-5) 102-91 FAVORITE OVER 181
Memphis Oklahoma City (-6.5) 111-102 FAVORITE OVER 197.5

Wednesday, May 4
Atlanta Chicago (-8.5) 86-73 FAVORITE UNDER 181
Dallas (+7) L.A. Lakers 93-81 UNDERDOG UNDER 188

Friday, May 6
Chicago (-2.5) Atlanta 99-82 FAVORITE OVER 178
L.A. Lakers Dallas (-2) 98-92 FAVORITE OVER 187

Saturday, May 7
Oklahoma City Memphis (-3) 101-93 FAVORITE UNDER 200.5
Miami Boston (-3) 97-81 FAVORITE UNDER 183

Sunday, May 8
Chicago Atlanta (+3.5) 100-88 UNDERDOG OVER 179
L.A. Lakers Dallas (-2) 122-86 FAVORITE OVER 187

Monday, May 9
Miami (-1.5) Boston 98-90 (OT) FAVORITE OVER 181
Oklahoma City (+2.5) Memphis 133-123 (3 OT) UNDERDOG OVER 198

Tuesday, May 10
Atlanta Chicago (-9) 95-83 FAVORITE UNDER 180

Wednesday, May 11
Boston Miami (-7.5) 97-87 FAVORITE OVER 181.5
Memphis Oklahoma City (-6) 99-72 FAVORITE UNDER 196.5

Thursday, May 12
Chicago Atlanta

Friday, May 13
Oklahoma City Memphis

Sunday, May 15
Atlanta Chicago
Memphis Oklahoma City





Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

Bulls try to clinch series Thursday in Atlanta


CHICAGO BULLS

at ATLANTA HAWKS


NBA Playoffs - Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 6 – Chicago leads series 3-2
Tip-off: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -3.5, Total: 178.5

Derrick Rose and the Bulls try to finish off Atlanta on Thursday and move on to the Conference Finals for a date with Miami. But despite winning three games in the series by an average of 14.0 PPG, Chicago’s last game in Atlanta (Game 4) ended in a 100-88 defeat. Rose has averaged 32.0 PPG and 9.4 APG in the series versus the Hawks.

Rose has been a scoring machine all series, but he has also put up 27.4 FG attempts per game to get his points. He has shot the ball better in his past three games (37.0 PPG on 47% FG) after a 39% clip in Games 1 and 2. Rose, who had eight turnovers in Game 2, has also taken much better care of the ball in his past three contests with seven total turnovers, while dishing out 27 assists. Carlos Boozer has also played well recently despite his turf toe injury, with 14.5 PPG on 52.4% FG in the past two games, which is a big jump from his 9.3 PPG on 44.8% FG in Games 1-3. Luol Deng has averaged 15.6 PPG in the series, but did not play well in the two contests in Atlanta (10.0 PPG, 8-24 FG). Joakim Noah has had a great rebounding series (11.0 RPG), but he was held scoreless in Game 5 and has just eight total points on 3-of-14 shooting in the past three contests.

If Atlanta is to send this series back to Chicago for a decisive Game 7, Jamal Crawford has to step up in a big way. Crawford scored just two points on 1-of-9 shooting in the Game 5 loss, and is averaging 6.7 PPG on 23% FG in the three defeats. He has been a key factor in the pair of wins however, with 17.0 PPG on 48% FG. Joe Johnson also has some wide splits in wins and losses, with 29.0 PPG on 66% in two victories and just 13.7 PPG on 41% FG in three defeats. Jeff Teague, who replaced the injured Kirk Hinrich in the starting lineup, has been the team’s most consistent (and valuable) player this series with 17.0 PPG (56% FG), 22 assists and just five turnovers. He scored 21 points on 8-of-11 shooting with seven assists and no turnovers in Game 5. Josh Smith has been his typical inconsistent self throughout the series, shooting just 37% from the field. He had 23 points, 16 rebounds and eight assists in the Game 4 win, but only had 16 points, seven rebounds and one assist in Tuesday’s defeat. Al Horford has also seen his production drop considerably since the postseason began. He averaged 15.3 PPG on 56% FG in the regular season, but just 11.7 PPG on 44% FG in 11 playoff games.

Atlanta has been stronger against the spread (7-4) than Chicago (5-5 ATS) during the postseason, but in the past three years, the Hawks are just 2-10 ATS in the second round of the playoffs. Chicago has been one of the best NBA road teams this season (27-18, 60%) and is a stellar 28-14 ATS (67%) with one day of rest. Atlanta is 20-26 ATS (44%) at home this season, and 20-25 ATS (44%) on one day’s rest. I expect this game to be tight throughout, but Rose and the Bulls will show their superiority in the fourth quarter and pull away with a win and cover.

Two more FoxSheets trends supporting Chicago to close out the series Thursday include:

CHICAGO is 32-13 ATS (71.1%, +17.7 Units) after playing a home game this season. The average score was CHICAGO 99.4, OPPONENT 88.2 - (Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Home underdogs (ATLANTA) - good free-throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free-throw shooting team (72-76%), in a game involving two good ball-handling teams (<=14.5 TO's). (123-74 since 1996.) (62.4%, +41.6 units. Rating = 2*).

This FoxSheets trend expects more great defense from the Bulls and for Game 6 to finish Under the total.

CHICAGO is 22-10 UNDER (68.8%, +11.0 Units) after allowing 85 points or less this season. The average score was CHICAGO 94.0, OPPONENT 87.7 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, May 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:00 PM ET Atlanta +3.5 500
Atlanta - Over 178.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting: Memphis Grizzlies, Thunder Game 6

The eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies simply ran out of gas in the third overtime of Game 4 against the fourth-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, leading to a 133-123 home loss on Monday. That disappointing finish carried over to Game 5 in Oklahoma City on Wednesday, when Memphis did not seem to have much left in the tank during a 99-72 blowout loss.

The Grizzlies now face elimination back at home in Game 6 on Friday, trailing 3-2 in a Western Conference semifinal playoff series they once led 1-0 and 2-1.

Meanwhile, the Thunder covered as 6-point favorites and seized control of the series for the first time with consecutive wins.

Both are looking to advance to the Western Conference Finals, where the third-seeded Dallas Mavericks await the winner.

Thursday's Game 6 is set for 6:00 p.m. (PT) with television coverage provided by ESPN. Memphis opened as 2-point chalk with the scoreboard number at 195½ on the Don Best odds screen.

Game 5 got off to a slow start for both teams, the score tied 17-17 after the first quarter. Oklahoma City picked up the scoring in the second quarter while Memphis did not.

The Grizzlies shot a season-worst 36 percent from the field and did not score more than 18 points in any of the first three quarters. Only a reserve-filled fourth quarter saw Memphis reach the 20-point plateau.

The Thunder were far from perfect early on, failing to score on their first seven possessions and going almost four minutes without scoring. Memphis failed to really take advantage though, and saw a 31-30 lead turn into a 45-33 deficit in the last five minutes of the first half.

Oklahoma City tacked on one more point before the break and then poured it on the Grizzlies in the second half. Still, the lack of scoring enabled bettors to easily cash the ‘under’ (197) for the second time in three games. Both teams scored more than 100 points in the other three games of the series.

Memphis power forward Zach Randolph had been one of the most dominant players in the playoffs, but he was limited to nine points and seven rebounds after playing nearly 56 minutes in Game 4. Randolph was averaging 26 points and 14 rebounds in the series heading into Game 5.

Randolph’s teammates were not any better. Guards Mike Conley, Tony Allen and O.J. Mayo combined to score just 22 points on 10-of-37 shooting from the field. That trio scored 40 points in Game 4.

Center Marc Gasol was the only Grizzlies player to score in double figures with 15 points after totaling 26 in Game 4.

Memphis is now 1-3 against the spread in the last four games after starting the playoffs on a 6-0-1 ATS run.

Kevin Durant led the Thunder with 19 points, nearly 12 points below his NBA-best postseason scoring average of 30.9 points per game. Durant logged a playoff-low 31 minutes due to the blowout while point guard Russell Westbrook had 11 points and six assists in 25 minutes, and both stars got to rest the entire fourth quarter.

Westbrook was criticized a bit for taking a game-high 33 shots in Game 4 and not deferring more to Durant while scoring a game-high 40 points. There were no such issues in Game 5, as he only took 10 shots and six other Oklahoma City players attempted seven or more, including Durant with a team-high 14.

Should Memphis extend the series to a seventh game, the two teams will travel back to Oklahoma City for Sunday's deciding contest

[StarDust Bum]

Game 6 - Thunder at Grizzlies

May 12, 2011

The Dallas Mavericks are sitting and waiting for their opponent in the Western Conference Finals as Rick Carlisle's squad can know as early as Friday night. The Thunder looks to close out the eighth-seeded Grizzlies at FedEx Forum as Oklahoma City owns a 3-2 series lead in the conference semifinals. Oklahoma City turned in its best defensive effort of the season by limiting Memphis to 72 points and 36% shooting in a 27-point rout on Wednesday.

It's funny to think that Oklahoma City would win a playoff game in such resounding fashion with Kevin Durant (19 points) and Russell Westbrook (11 points) combining for just 30 points. Marc Gasol was the lone Grizzlies' player that put up double-figures in scoring, while Zach Randolph, Mike Conley, and O.J. Mayo went 9-for-32 from the floor for 23 points in the Game 5 blowout loss. By the Thunder easily covering the six-point number, home favorites improved to 14-2 SU and 12-4 ATS since 2009 with a playoff series tied at 2-2.

The Thunder is now profiting in the postseason with a 5-4-1 ATS playoff mark, while the Grizzlies fell to 7-3-1 ATS after the Game 5 setback. The 'over' is 7-4 in Memphis playoff games, as the 'under' on Wednesday hit for only the second time in five road postseason contests. Oklahoma City hasn't dominated one way or the other in the totals department by posting a 5-4-1 record to the 'over' in the postseason.

Scott Brooks' club struggled this season as a road underdog off a home win as the Thunder compiled a 4-7 SU and 6-5 ATS mark in this situation, including the Game 3 overtime loss at Memphis. On the flip side, the Grizzlies are 8-2 SU/ATS as home 'chalk' coming off a road defeat, while winning and covering eight straight games in this scenario.

Oklahoma City is the 21st road team since 2008 owning a 3-2 series lead looking to close things out on the highway. These squads are 13-7 ATS and 12-8 SU (following Chicago's victory at Atlanta), but when these teams are listed as underdogs, they own a 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS mark.

ROAD UNDERDOGS LEADING SERIES 3-2 SINCE '08
ROUND/YR RESULT LINE ATS RESULT
QTR/08 CLE 105, WSH 88 +3 W
SEMI/08 CLE 74, BOS 69 +3 L
SEMI/08 LAL 108, UT 105 +4 W
SEMI/08 SA 99, NOR 80 +7 L
CONF/08 BOS 89, DET 81 +5 W
QTR/09 CHI 128, BOS 127 (3 OT) +3 W
QTR/09 ORL 114, PHI 89 +5.5 W
QTR/09 MIA 98, ATL 72 +5 L
SEMI/09 ORL 83, BOS 75 +7 L
CONF/09 LAL 119, DEN 92 +5.5 W
QTR/10 LAL 95, OKC 94 +1 W
QTR/10 PHX 99, POR 90 +1.5 W
CONF/10 LAL 111, PHX 103 +1.5 W
NBAF/10 LAL 89, BOS 67 +6 L
QTR/11 DAL 106, POR 96 +4 W
*ROAD TEAMS IN BOLD



Vegas Insider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence points to several interesting trends that favor Memphis, "Home favorites that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up the next game in this round. That's evident by a sparkling 18-9-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game. Put these favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 14-3 ATS."

From the totals perspective, VegasInsider.com's Chris David reminds bettors of several bad beats in this series, "Looking at the 'over/under' for Game 6, the oddsmakers have dropped the numbers back down to 195 ½, which was close to the total in Game 1. The 'over' has cashed in three of the first five but you could make a case the 'under' should be 4-1. Two key factors that help 'over' tickets are free throws and 3-pointers and this series has seen a ton of attempts from the charity stripe, with exception to the last game which was a blowout."

David makes a fair point about the Grizzlies' defensive dominance at FedEx Forum throughout the playoffs, "Will we see a lot of whistles tonight? You can't handicap the referees but we do know that Memphis doesn't shoot a lot of 3-pointers and the Grizzlies have only surrendered an average of 98.2 PPG in their five postseason games at home. And that number dips to 89.5 PPG if you take out Oklahoma City's 133-point outburst in Game 4's triple-overtime thriller."

Memphis is listed as a 2-point favorite at most spots, while the total is set at 195 ½, as the game will tip off at 9:05 PM EST and be seen on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - Second Round

May 12, 2011

Second Round Results

Favorites are 14-6 straight up
Favorites are 14-6 against the spread
The 'over' is 13-7
Home teams are 12-8

Visitor Home Final Score ATS OVER/UNDER

Sunday, May 1
Memphis (+6.5) Oklahoma City 114-101 UNDERDOG OVER 195
Boston Miami (-5) 99-90 FAVORITE OVER 181

Monday, May 2
Atlanta (+9) Chicago 103-95 UNDERDOG OVER 177.5
Dallas (+6) L.A. Lakers 96-94 UNDERDOG OVER 188.5

Tuesday, May 3
Boston Miami (-5) 102-91 FAVORITE OVER 181
Memphis Oklahoma City (-6.5) 111-102 FAVORITE OVER 197.5

Wednesday, May 4
Atlanta Chicago (-8.5) 86-73 FAVORITE UNDER 181
Dallas (+7) L.A. Lakers 93-81 UNDERDOG UNDER 188

Friday, May 6
Chicago (-2.5) Atlanta 99-82 FAVORITE OVER 178
L.A. Lakers Dallas (-2) 98-92 FAVORITE OVER 187

Saturday, May 7
Oklahoma City Memphis (-3) 101-93 FAVORITE UNDER 200.5
Miami Boston (-3) 97-81 FAVORITE UNDER 183

Sunday, May 8
Chicago Atlanta (+3.5) 100-88 UNDERDOG OVER 179
L.A. Lakers Dallas (-2) 122-86 FAVORITE OVER 187

Monday, May 9
Miami (-1.5) Boston 98-90 (OT) FAVORITE OVER 181
Oklahoma City (+2.5) Memphis 133-123 (3 OT) UNDERDOG OVER 198

Tuesday, May 10
Atlanta Chicago (-9) 95-83 FAVORITE UNDER 180

Wednesday, May 11
Boston Miami (-7.5) 97-87 FAVORITE OVER 181.5
Memphis Oklahoma City (-6) 99-72 FAVORITE UNDER 196.5

Thursday, May 12
Chicago (-3.5) Atlanta 93-73 FAVORITE UNDER 180

Friday, May 13
Oklahoma City Memphis

Sunday, May 15
Memphis Oklahoma City





Winners in BOLD

[StarDust Bum]

Thunder try to finish off Grizzlies in Memphis Friday


OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

at MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES


NBA Playoffs – Western Conference Semifinals
Game 6 – Oklahoma City leads 3-2
Tip-off: Friday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Memphis -2, Total: 195.5

After taking a 2-1 series lead and forcing two overtimes with game-saving, three-point shots, the Grizzlies were in great position to put their foot on the throat of the Thunder. However, Oklahoma City was able to survive Game 4, and then destroyed the Grizzlies 99-72 in Game 5, so now Memphis is the one fighting for its life as it comes home facing elimination for the first time this postseason.

The Thunder dominated Game 5, as Kevin Durant (19 points in 31 minutes) and Russell Westbrook (11 points in 25 minutes) wound up sitting for most of the fourth quarter as Oklahoma City built a 20-point lead. The Thunder bench was sensational, outscoring the Grizzlies bench 53-27. Daequan Cook (18 points, 6-of-7 FG) and James Harden (+29 rating, nine points, six rebounds, five assists) were the two standout reserves. Oklahoma City has done most of its damage through the transition game, outscoring Memphis 95-55, including a 14-point advantage in Game 5 (25-11). The fast break has been a huge key for the Thunder this series. In the three games they have won, they have outscored the Grizzlies by a combined 38 points, but are just +7 total on the fast break in the two defeats. If the Thunder continue to get out and run, and get strong performances from their bench, they will be traveling to Dallas for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals this weekend.

After rallying from down 11 points in the fourth quarter of their Game 3 win, Memphis looked determined to put the series seriously in its favor when it broke out to an 18-point lead in Game 4. However, the Thunder were able to hold off the Grizzlies and their miraculous three-point shots and hold on to win the game in triple OT. Zach Randolph was a non-factor in Game 5, with just nine points (3-9 FG) and seven rebounds. The Thunder have done a very good job holding him down at times this series (37% FG), but Randolph had two monster home games this series with 21 points and 21 rebounds in Game 3 followed by 34 points and 16 boards in Game 4. If Randolph and Marc Gasol (minus-24 rating in Game 5) don’t start opening up things down low for the outside shooters, the Grizzlies will be eliminated. It would also help if the two main outside shooters -- O.J. Mayo (38% FG in series) and Mike Conley (6-of-28 FG in past two games) found their strokes immediately.

Memphis has certainly made a name for itself already this postseason by becoming just the second eighth seed to advance past the first round in the best-of-seven format. However, the ride just might be over as the Thunder have taken total control of this series. Memphis has never won a postseason game when facing elimination, going 0-3 in those games, while the Thunder are looking for their first NBA Finals appearance since 1996 when they were in Seattle. Despite its poor play in Game 5, I still think Memphis has something left in this series. The Grizzlies are 30-15 ATS (67%) at home this season, and are 28-11 ATS (72%) after an SU loss. Oklahoma City is 25-19 ATS (57%) on the road and 31-28 ATS (53%) after an SU win this season. I took the Grizzlies to win the series at the start, and I’m not changing now. I like Memphis to win Game 6 and then win the series in Game 7.

The FoxSheets provide three highly-rated trends supporting the Grizzlies:

MEMPHIS is 34-10 ATS (77.3%, +23.0 Units) after playing a road game this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 100.8, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 5*).

MEMPHIS is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 98.1, OPPONENT 90.9 - (Rating = 4*).

MEMPHIS is 38-18 ATS (67.9%, +18.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 102.4, OPPONENT 101.6 - (Rating = 3*).

Eight of the past 10 meetings between these teams have finished Over the total, and this FoxSheets trend also sides with the Over for Friday’s game.

MEMPHIS is 22-9 OVER (71.0%, +12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 99.8, OPPONENT 100.2 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, May 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oklahoma City - 9:00 PM ET Oklahoma City +1.5 500
Memphis - Under 195.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Odds: Grizzlies and Thunder Game 7

Games 5 and 6 went ’under’ the total after the series started 3-1 ’over.’
The waiting game has been extended for the Dallas Mavericks.

A seventh game will be needed to decide who the Mavs' opponent will be in the Western Conference Finals after the Memphis Grizzlies coasted past the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday night, 95-83.

Oklahoma City Arena will host the first Game 7 of this NBA postseason on Sunday with the contest tipping a little after 12:30 p.m. (PT). ABC's cameras will be on hand to deliver the action to the masses.

Opening numbers on the Don Best odds screen have the Thunder laying 6½ points and -300 on the money line. Sunday's total started at 193, the lowest scoreboard tally of the series.

For much of the first half of Game 6, it didn't look like this series would be going to a seventh game. Oklahoma City took a 10-point lead into the locker room before Zach Randolph and the Grizzlies erased that deficit with a dominating final 24 minutes when they outscored the Thunder, 51-29.

Randolph led all scorers once again with 30 points, 20 in the second half, adding 13 boards to give him his fourth 30-10 effort of the postseason. OJ Mayo got a rare start and responded with 16 points for the Grizzlies.

While Randolph and Memphis were once again controlling the paint, Kevin Durant and the Thunder struggled. Durant scored a season-low 11 points, hitting just three field goals and shooting 1-for-9 from 3-point range. The NBA's leading scorer was blanked in the final quarter, missing all four tries from outside the arc.

Two-point home chalk in the contest, Memphis leveled the spread records for the series at 3-3. The second consecutive 'under' also evened up the totals column at 3-3.

Oklahoma City is not going to win Game 7 by beating Memphis in the paint. The Grizzlies were the inside-scoring champs of the NBA during the regular season (51.5 PPG) and completely dominated the Thunder in that facet of the game while taking three of the four head-to-head meetings during the regular season.

Still, the Thunder will have to do a better job at challenging the Grizz inside, meaning head coach Scott Brooks will need better efforts from his two big men, Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka.

Oklahoma City is also not going to advance to the conference finals with another 11-point performance from Durant. The 4th-year forward has gone ice cold from 3-point land since opening on fire from long range in the first four games of the conference quarterfinals against Denver.

Durant has converted just 3-of-19 long range attempts the last three games against Memphis, though several of his late heaves from behind the line in Game 6 came with the game already lost.

Neither team is reporting any new injuries heading into Sunday's battle.

Whoever comes out on top Sunday isn't likely to have much time to celebrate with all signs pointing to a Tuesday matchup in Dallas against the Mavericks.

[StarDust Bum]

Game 7, Memphis at Oklahoma City

May 14, 2011

Offshore sportsbook betED.com had Memphis listed as high as 110/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $11,000) to win the NBA Finals during the offseason. It’s understood that the Grizzlies are still nine wins away from hoisting the hardware, but bettors should recognize how far this team has come. Not a lot of pundits expected Memphis to knock off San Antonio in the first round, but it did. And those same experts probably didn’t expect the Grizzlies to be playing in a Game 7 of the conference semifinals versus the Thunder, but they are.
Win or lose at Oklahoma City on Sunday, this run by Memphis has been incredible considering the franchise never won a playoff series yet alone a postseason game prior to this year’s efforts.

History doesn’t bode well for the road team in a Game 7 of any professional sport, especially the NBA. There have been 106 Game 7’s in playoff history and the home team is 85-21 (80%) in those affairs.

Along with history and Oklahoma City’s home record (35-12 straight up, 23-23 against the spread), oddsmakers have listed the Grizzlies as 6 ½-point road underdogs in Game 7. Memphis doesn’t own a winning record on the road (18-29 SU) but it’s been a great investment (28-17 ATS) for gamblers.

The league is built around superstars and those that perform will advance, which is evident in this series. Memphis relies on power forward Zach Randolph, who ripped up the Thunder frontcourt with 30 points and 13 rebounds in Game 6’s win (95-83). The effort was much needed, considering he put up a playoff-low nine points in Game 5’s blowout loss (72-99). What will he do in Game 7? If you like Memphis, you better hope he shows up.

As much importance as Randolph is to the Grizzlies, Oklahoma City needs All-Star Kevin Durant to perform at a top level or it has no shot. In Friday’s setback, Durant managed just 11 points and couldn’t buy a shot after getting into early foul trouble. His 3-of-14 shooting performance was hampered by a 1-of-9 effort from 3-point land.

This best-of-seven series has had a little bit of everything. Both the Thunder and Grizz have captured wins on the road, both have won in overtime and both have been embarrassed at times too. VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers broke down what transpired in Friday’s game.

He explained, “One thing to keep an eye on in these long series is what makes sense and what doesn't. Memphis was held to 72 points in the Game 5 loss at Oklahoma City, but the Grizzlies were due to bounce back at home in Game 6. However, the Thunder scoring just 29 second-half points on Friday is a complete aberration heading back home for Game 7.”

Looking at the first six games, the point-spread hasn’t matter at all. All you have to do is pick the winner and that’s where Rogers has dug up a solid trend that favors the host. “OKC doesn't mess around when laying points at home off a loss as the Thunder owns a 15-0 SU and 9-5-1 ATS this season. In 14 of those 15 instances, Oklahoma City has eclipsed the 100-point mark, so watch out for a Thunder offensive explosion on Sunday,” added Rogers.

Those looking to fade that angle, can take the points with Memphis or take a shot on the 5/2 money-line (Bet $100 to $250) with an outright road victory.

If you’re a total bettor and you follow the Association, then you understand that games don’t get lengthened when the margin is in the double-digit range. And that’s what happened in Game 5 and Game 6, which has resulted in two ‘under’ tickets.

Due to the recent low-scoring affairs, the oddsmakers have adjusted the total all the way down to 193. Since that number came out, we’ve seen the total drop as low as 190 ½ at a few major offshore outfits, which is sharp action. Is the adjustment right? It’s fair to say that Game 1 was the only game that should’ve went ‘over’ while Game 2 and Game 4 were fortunate to get a late outburst and overtime respectively.

When you look at the way Oklahoma City scores at home, a wager on ‘over’ its team total (98.5) seems real doable on Sunday. The lowest number the Thunder posted in this year’s postseason at home was 99 and that came in a blowout win (Game 5 vs. Memphis).

The winner of this battle will advance to the Western Conference Finals, with Game 1 starting in Dallas on Tuesday. The Mavericks will be listed as favorites against either the Thunder or Grizzlies, prices should be anywhere from a 1/2 (Bet $200 to win $100) or 1/3 (Bet $300 to win $100). Dallas was 2-1 against Oklahoma City and 1-3 against Memphis during the regular season.

Updated future odds to win the Western Conference from 5dimes.com have Dallas (-250) as the favorite, with Oklahoma City (+275) and Memphis (+975) offering value.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Playoffs - Game 7 Facts

May 14, 2011

Game 7 Quick Facts

The NBA has had 106 Game 7’s in playoff history
The home team is 85-21 (80%) in those games
Memphis and Oklahoma City have never played in a Game 7
Five of the last six Game 7 outcomes have been decided by double digits
Three of the last four road winners in Game 7 were from the Western Conference

Below is a list of all 21 teams that have won Game 7 on the road in the NBA Playoffs.



All-Time Game Seven Road Winners
Year Road Team Home Team Round
2008 Orlando 101 Boston 82 Conference semifinals
2007 San Antonio 91 New Orleans 82 Conference semifinals
2007 Utah 103 Houston 99 First round
2006 *Dallas 119 San Antonio 111 Conference semifinals
2005 Detroit 88 Miami 82 Conference finals
2005 Indiana 97 Boston 70 First round
2002 *L.A. Lakers 112 Sacramento 106 Conference finals
2000 New York 83 Miami 82 Conference semifinals
1995 Indiana 97 New York 95 Conference semifinals
1995 Houston 115 Phoenix 114 Conference semifinals
1982 Philadelphia 120 Boston 106 Conference finals
1981 Kansas City 95 Phoenix 88 Conference semifinals
1981 Houston 105 San Antonio 100 Conference semifinals
1978 Washington 105 Seattle 99 NBA Finals
1976 Phoenix 94 Golden State 86 Conference finals
1974 Boston 102 Milwaukee 87 NBA Finals
1973 New York 94 Boston 78 Conference finals
1971 Baltimore 93 New York 91 Conference finals
1969 Boston 108 L.A. Lakers 106 NBA Finals
1968 Boston 100 Philadelphia 96 Division finals
1948 Philadelphia 85 St Louis 46 Semifinals
(*) Asterisk denotes overtime