NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

[SACPAC]

Good Luck Tonite But I Already On The Rockets...enjoy Your Posts..

[bwade210]

Great info and good luck tonight!

[Tnbreakers]

Thanks for the insight and stay HOT!!! Good Luck to ya!

[GrandPa]

Mike James will have a huge game tonight, to prove the Rockets blew it, basically letting him get away...twice!

Saw a trend in today's trend thread where HOU is 0-11 in this spot.

Love the play, and read your stuff daily, b7, much appreciated.

I played UNDER 178 on this game too.

[drugstuntman]

got it just in time, let's keep it rolling brewer

[HammerHead33]

DUDE...your insane!!!...what is that atleast what....4-5-6 in a row?...your the man...thanks bud

[LVJimmy]

nice call man...saw tons of action on Houston so I know that took big ones...thanks!

[vinnyvegas]

WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER

Close but take em anyway we can.

[TCB in a Flash]

Nice call again.
Another big 4th quarter for Minny.
Like that 4th in 5 trend!

[Stealth]

Brewers, thanks again. You are the real deal.
Stay Hot!

[brewers7]

nice call man...saw tons of action on Houston so I know that took big ones...thanks!

Thanx everyone...

I could absolutely care less what the so-called "sharps" are on, believe me...

I love it when the "smart money" is on the other side of me...It doesn't happen anywhere near as much as it used to, because apparently there are a lot more educated bettors these days than there were a decade ago, but these so-called "sharps" don't know anything more about NBA handicapping than the smartest handicappers on internet forums, believe me...

GL and hopefully I can keep this going here for a spell...

[brewers7]

Update on the 4-games-in-5-days NBA trend:

If you blindly take the Away Team in any game where either opponent is playing a 4-of-5, you are 10-5 ATS this season...

This trend has it's hot and cold spells...Last year, the trend was horrific in November, starting out maybe 1-8 or 2-11 (going from memory), but still finished the 2005-06 season with a 44-34-3 ATS record, despite the horrible start...I remember mentioning to my (now defunct) forum members in December that the trend would be a good one to ride the rest of the season when it was about 2-11 or something close to that and I would say the roughly 42-23 ATS finish was pretty good...

But as I have said in posting forums for the last 4 NBA seasons, the 4-of-5 trend can be broken down even further...

The 4-of-5 trend is at its STRONGEST when the Home Team is playing their 4th-game-in-5 days and arguably even stronger if BOTH teams are playing their 4th game in 5 days...

Last year:

#1 Take the Away Team when the Home Team is playing 4-of-5: 18-7 ATS
#2 Take the Away Team when both teams are playing 4-of-5: 3-0 ATS

That is 21-7 ATS for 75%

Also last year:

#3 Take the Away Team when only the Away Team is playing 4-of-5: 23-27 ATS

It was an off year for this one, the weakest of the 3, as it never did quite recover from the really bad ATS start...It is usually above 50% and some years at or around 60%...

This year:

#1 is 0-1 ATS (and it was Dallas blowing out Washington)
#2 is 1-1 ATS (but this super-strong trend ran into 2 tough spots)
#3 is 8-3 ATS (starting this year strong to try and get back near its norm after a bad year last season, with all 3 losses being by less than 3 points)


Any questions or comments are welcome...

[brewers7]

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Early looks at Wednesday's games:

New York at Cleveland: Quentin Richardson is questionable for NY...Larry Hughes is expected to miss for Cleveland...The Cavs have 3 days rest for the first time this season and are 2-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not...NY 1-3 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks...Stephon Marbury still having problems for the Knicks as he hit his first 2 shots and then missed his final 11 shots and disappeared in the 4Q...He also had 5 turnovers and said after the game that he is not performing well lately because he "is not touching the ball as much as he is used to"...But maybe what Stephon hasn't realized is that maybe HE is the problem...After NJ traded Marbury to PHOE, the Nets, who were 26-56 with Marbury on board as their starting PG in 2000-01, went to 52-30 the very next season without Marbury...Then PHOE traded Marbury to NY in the middle of the 2003-04 season and with Marbury there for the first 34 games, the Suns finished 29-53 that year and then jumped to 62-20 the next season without Marbury when Steve Nash took over...Yet Marbury is the self-proclaimed best PG in the league?...The Knicks are going to struggle if Marbury doesn't have his head in the game...The Knicks have covered 4 of the last 5 vs. CLE and 5 straight games and 9 of the last 10 in this h2h series have gone Under...

Charlotte at Atlanta: I am more or less dumbfounded about why the early line-movement on this total seems to be on the Over...Sure, the last 2 games between these two teams were 226 and 242, but these games were last year on 3/28 and 4/14, LATE in the season when both teams were long, long since removed from the playoff race and these games pretty much didn't mean anything...But these 2 team are completely different this season and are both in the top 4 in defense this season as Charlotte is 2nd and Atlanta is 4th in FG% allowed...ATL 3 straight and 5 of the last 6 games Under...CHAR 3 straight Overs after 5 straight Unders, so they are still a chart-play to the Over...ATL 5-1 to the Under at Home this season...ATL 0-2 SU & ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks this season and in both instances, their opponent was also on a back-ender...CHAR 2-1 SU & ATS in this same exact spot...

New Jersey at Boston: All 5 NJ starters played about 36 minutes or more, with 4 of them playing about 40 minutes each...Why?...Because they have no bench as their bench chipped in a whopping 7 points last night...NJ has now lost 6 straight (no covers, but a push in those 6) and are 0-2 SU & ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks this season...This is Boston's first game where they have rest and are playing an opponent on a back-ender...BOS has 3 days rest and are 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS with both of those games against CHAR...NJ has won 5 of the last 6 against BOS, covering 4...6 of the last 7 h2h games have gone Under...How good is NJ this year?...I cannot see them losing 7 straight, but I have seen a lot stranger things in the NBA over the years...

Toronto at Dallas: Morris Peterson is doubtful for Toronto...Devean George is questionable for Dallas...The Mavs have won 10 straight after losing their first 4 games of the season...Dallas is 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS their last 13 against Toronto and have gone Over 10 of the last 14 against the Raptors...Dallas has won 6 straight and 7 of 8 h2h at Home vs. TOR and are 5-3 ATS in those 8 Home games with 6 of the last 7 going Over...This is the first game this season for Dallas where they have rest and their opponent does not and 3 of the last 4 Home games vs. the Raptors have fit this situational spot where Dallas won all 3 (by 8, 11 & 17 points) and covered 2...DAL was 6-5 ATS when they had rest and their opponent did not last season, but 6-2 ATS at Home...TOR is 1-0 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks this season...TOR has now Covered 6 of 7 after a NC5...TOR has also gone Under 7 of their last 8 now and 5 straight...Dallas has gone Under 6 straight Overall...

San Antonio at Utah: No total posted...Manu Ginobili is questionable for SA...Spurs are 3-0 SU & ATS after losses this season...The Jazz have now lost 2 straight after starting the season 12-1...The Spurs have won 3 straight and 22 of 24 against the Jazz in this series, going 17-7 ATS against Utah...They have gone Over 6 of the last 8 h2h...The Spurs have always been a good-bounce-back teams off a loss in recent years...The Spurs won by 9 in both games at Utah last season...

Houston at Phoenix: Tracy McGrady and Bonzi Wells are questionable and Juwan Howard is probable for Houston...Leandro Barbosa is questionable for Phoenix...Early action all over PHOE as the line has moved 2 points and about 80% of the bets are on PHOE...PHOE is 2-0 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not so far this season and they were 13-7 ATS in this situational spot last year and started last season 8-1 ATS in this spot...PHOE won all 3 games vs. HOU last season by an aggregate total of 63 points and have are 8-2 SU & ATS against Houston the last 10...McGrady seemed to hint as though he may not play today, which is why the line is skyrocketing...7 of the last 10 in this h2h series have gone Over, but 3 of the last 5 have gone Under...4 of the last 5 h2h at PHOE have gone Over...

Orlando at Seattle: The Magic are now Kings of the East and are first in defense in terms of FG% allowed...Seattle Coach Bob Hill allegedly stirring it up with his bench players in the Seattle newspapers so we'll see how that plays out...ORL won against the Sonics at Home on 11/8 on a buzzer-beater, 88-87...SEA has won 7 of the last 8 against ORL at Home...ORL in an obvious let-down spot, but this team is rock-solid and SEA is struggling mightily, losing 4 of their last 5 Home games...A revenge spot for the Sonics, but are they good enough to exact it?...And again I must ask why ORK totals are as high as they are?...ORL 8-2-1 to the Under their last 11 and SEA Under 4 of their last 5 and remember, these teams played a 175 3 weeks ago...

Indiana at Golden State: No total posted...Jermaine O'Neal is probable but not 100% healthy for Indiana...Baron Davis is questionable and Michael Pietrus is probable for Golden State...Indy is 8-2 SU & ATS in the last 10 in this series...Indy 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks this season...GS 4-2 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...GS also 4-2 to the Over in this situational spot and 4-1 to the Over their last 5 overall...GS Coach Don Nelson is going for his 1200th win tonight, but that is just some informational fluff for those interested...Indy Over in 3 of their 5 back-enders this season...

Memphis at LA Clippers: No line posted...Damon Stoudamire and Jake Tsakalidis are questionable for Memphis...Sam Cassell is questionable for the Clippers...MEMP has won 11 of the last 13 in this h2h series and are 9-4 ATS in those games...Even as good as the Clips were last season, MEMP beat them their last 3 meetings by an aggregate total of 32 points...Talk about your conflicting numbers: MEMP has Covered 6 straight, while the Clips have Not Covered 7 straight...And ahhh, yes, we have another 4-games-in-5-nights trend here as the Clippers have a 4-of-5 at Home here, the second instance of this situational spot where the Home team has a 4-of-5 and the Away Team does not...Problem is that MEMP is in a BIG let-down spot and the Clips are in an EXTREME bounce-back spot here as they shot just 30.6% from the field last night in what was the lowest FG% by any team this season in the NBA and obviously lost...Blindly taking the Away Team here is what the 4-of-5 trend says...

But let's look at even a more interesting angle...In the last 15+ years (over 18,000 games, including playoffs even), there has only been ONE instance where a C6 team played a NC7 team and that happened on 4/5/02, and it was Toronto (C6) playing on the Road at Chicago (NC7)...Toronto had a 36-38 record going into the game and Chicago was 17-57 and Toronto was a 4.5 Road FAV and they won by 2, so the NC7 team (Chicago) Covered at Home...There were 2 other games in the last 15+ seasons where a C6 played a NC8 and a NC9 and the C6 team did Not Cover those 2 games either...Not a lot of teams reach a C8 or NC8 and if they do, the streak usually ends at 8 (look at GS last week)...So when this info is considered, the 4-of-5 trend is in another tough spot here to try and get a Cover for the Away Team...

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[Larry29]

Thanks for the great write-ups and picks.

GOOD LUCK THIS SEASON!!

[Moose21]

Brewers, the obvious hard work and information is really appreciated. Good luck.