NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

[Spencer3000]

Thanks for another winner

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================

Early looks at Friday's games:

Charlotte at Washington: Gerald Wallace, Ray Felton & Jake Voskuhl are questionable for CHAR...I really would have trouble going near this one because Wallace and Felton are fairly important to CHAR...The Bobcats have covered 5 of 6 inthis h2h series and have never won in 4 trips to WAS, but have covered the last 3...CHAR slipping to 3rd in the league in FG% allowed and have gone Over 4 straight now and these 2 teams have gone Over 201 against each other 3 straight meetings...

Boston at Toronto: Morris Peterson is questionable for Toronto...On the surface, Boston would seem to be dominating this h2h series, as they have won 9 of 11, but are just 4-6-1 ATS...The Under is surprisingly 7-3 in the last 10 h2h, but 2 of the last 3 have gone Over...TOR a different team at Home, 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS...But BOS is surprisingly 3-1-1 ATS on the Road...Definite chart-play to the Over here for TOR, because they had an extreme Over last time out after 5 straight Unders and 7 of 8 Under...TOR 4-2 to the Over at Home and BOS 3-2 to the Over on the Road...

Cleveland at Atlanta: Larry Hughes is expected to miss for CLE...Lorenzen Wright is questionable for Atlanta...ATL 2nd in the league and CLE 10th in FG% allowed on defense to this point...CLE had won 9 of 10 SU in this series until ATL pulled off the upset win 104-95 in OT at Cleveland on 11/7...CLE had covered 8 of 10 before that loss, too...ATL is 4-3 at Home and are basically a bucket away in all 3 losses from being 7-0, as they lost to SEA by a point in OT, amd they lost to MIA in OT and they blew a double-digit lead against MILW in the 4Q to lose by 2 points...But this is a quick-revenge spot for CLE and they are coming off an embarrassing loss at Home...ATL 5-2 to the Under at Home this year and CLE 4-1-1 to the Under on the Road...CLE has won and covered 4 straight in ATL...

Chicago at New Orleans: Ben Wallace is probable for CHI...Peja Stojakovic and Bobby Jackson are doubtful and David West is expected to miss for New Orleans...Now that the circus has left CHI, the Bulls have had some practice and preparation time to cure their ills...I stated before their last game at Home vs. NY that I thought the Bulls were on the verge of making a run now that they have some home games coming up against Eastern Conference opponents after this trip to NO...The Hornets are in free-fall without West and Peja and now they won't have Jackson...If these 3 guys don't play, I can state right now that the Bulls and the Under are the play, but I am hearing conflicting info on Peja...The streaky ATS Hornets had a C3, NC4, C4 and now are on a NC4...The Bulls may be hitting their stride as it appears this "headband controversy" with Ben Wallace might be a spark for them...Bulls are 26th in FG% allowed and that will only improve IMO...

New York at Detroit: NY has covered 4 of 5 h2h and the Over is 4 of 5 h2h in this series...DET has won 8 staright vs. NY at Home (4-3-1 ATS)...NY 0-1 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not this season, while DET is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks...DET has won 7 straight overall now after the win at Miami on THUR...Detroit still an Over team at Home and an Under team on the Road since Coach Flip Saunders took over for Larry Brown last season...

Denver at Minnesota: Joe Smith is questionable and Nene Hilario is doubtful for Denver...Minny had won 12 of 14 and 14 of 17 h2h vs. DEN, but the Nuggets have won 4 of the alst 5 vs. the T'Wolves, thanks in part to Coach George Karl coming to town...The last 6 in this h2h series have gone Over...Revenge spot here as Minny beat the Nuggets at DEN on 11/3...Minny has covered 5 straight overall, and DEN just had a 5-game winning streak snapped at Home by MEMP...

Sacramento at Dallas: No total posted...Dirk Nowitzki is probable for Dallas...Dirk has been cleared to play by the Dallas team doctor after being poked in the eye during the last game...Dallas is 9-1 SU & ATS vs. SAC their last 10 h2h meetings at Dallas...Brad Miller is back for his 3rd game now (hasn't started yet but maybe tonight?)...SAC streaky this year ATS, themselves as they have won and covered 3 straight...Had a NC4 before that and a C3 before that...But I have said it before and I'll say it again...In the NBA, it is not easy to win 10 in a row, let alone 12, as Dallas has won 11 straight after starting the season 0-4...Wouldn't be surprised by a SU win for SAC here as the kings are finally at full strength...The Over is 4-1-1 ATS the last 6 h2h...

Milwaukee at Phoenix: 5 straight Overs h2h in this series...PHOE has had 5 straight Unders at Home, a first when Steve Nash plays just about all of them (he missed the Philly game with back spasms)...Suns 6-2 to the Under at Home this season, but they have played MEMP, HOU, NO, NJ at Home and generally speaking, those aer defensive-minded teams...I just don't see 6 straight games staying Under at PHOE when Nash plays in 5 of them...Milw is 28th and Phoe is 22nd in FG% allowed on the season...The Home team has covered 5 of the last 6 in this h2h series...

Orlando at Portland: Raef LaFrentz is doubtful for Portland...ORL is now #1 in FG% allowed this season, while PORT is 29th...The last 2 in this h2h series have gone Over after 7 straight Unders...ORL now 9-2-1 to the Under in their last 12 overall and have covered 4 straight and 8 of 10 overall after a NC5...PORT 0-3 SU & ATS their last 3 and Over 2 straight, 4 of 5 and 8 of 10 after having 5 straight Unders...I wonder if getting Joel Przybilla back for his second game after missing time with an injury will bring more rebounding and help for PORT overall (he did pull down 10 in 23 minutes last time out in a loss to Indy) as perhaps they can pull off a mini-upset here as I know the public will pound the Magic...

Indiana at Seattle: The Sonics are reeling, losing 3 straight overall (all at Home) and they have lost 5 of their last 6 at Home...Indy just beat GS and PORT o bk-to-bk nights as they hit Game 4 of their longest Road trip of the year...Indy has Covered 6 of their alst 7 overall, winning 5 of those games...Maybe Seattle's woes starts with defense as they are dead last in the league in FG% allowed...Despite that fact, they have gone Under 5 of their last 6...This h2h series has produced 6 straight and 7 of 8 Overs and 4 straight Overs at SEA...

================================================== =====================

[moondog22]

nice write ups,see you later

[brewers7]

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 39-20, +$2288

Sides: 18-8, +$1119, Totals: 13-9, +$701, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 3-0, +$250

================================================== ======================

Friday, December 1

Milwaukee/Phoenix Over 216 -- $161 to win $150 --- (or Milw/Phoe Over 216 @1.935, 1.5/10, Pinnacle)

5 straight Overs h2h in this series, with 215 the lowest total reached and the other 4 all went over 230...PHOE has had 5 straight Unders at Home, a first since Steve Nash came to PHOE as I just checked the last 2 seasons and this includes the playoffs even...4 Home Overs in a row was the most I could find unless I missed something...Suns 6-2 to the Under at Home this season, but they have played MEMP, HOU, NO, NJ at Home and generally speaking, those are defensive-minded teams...I just don't see 6 straight games staying Under at PHOE when Nash plays in 5 of them...MILW is 28th and PHOE is 22nd in FG% allowed on the season...MILW is Over 2 straight after going Under 4 of 5...Phoenix has had 5 straight stone Overs in their last 5 games, so a 1Q Over is tempting, too, but for now, I will tke the Game Total Over and bet it now as I wonder about this total creeping towards 220 as the day moves along...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Friday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$150)
Last 3 days: 3-0 (+$450)
Last 7 days: 7-1 (+$695)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
================================================== ======================

[vinnyvegas]

Early bird has the worm...go to BED!!

[BillMill71]

You have done a fantastic job. Solid and consistent capping. Good Luck in the future

[drugstuntman]

can't say enough about the run you are on brewer...great work and we all appreciate it

[bwade210]

Thanks for the great writeups and excellent picks, good luck tonight my friend!

[Stealth]

Thanks again B7!!!

[molta02]

gl tonite and thanks for the hard work

[Moose21]

Good luck on the play Brewers.

[KR-V3]

Thanks B7- you are a class act and a tremendous capper, can't say enough about the job you do and the way you go about it. such a stark difference from some of the other crumbs that try to muscle their way in to this forum. keep it up brother!!!

[soxx9]

Good luck tonight....enjoy the writeups!

[Hitman]

GL Brewers!

[brewers7]

Wow, thanx a lot guys...Just trying to show folks my style of handicapping this great sport...Appreciate the kind words...

I like the totals tonight...

================================================== ======================

Friday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Sac, 2) Chi, 3) Char, 4) Port, 5) NY, 6) Milw, 7) Sea, 8) Min, 9) Atl, 10) Tor

Totals:

1) Milw ov, 2) Sac ov, 3) Chi un, 4) Sea ov, 5) NY ov, 6) Tor ov, 7) Min ov, 8) Char ov, 9) Atl un, 10) Port un
================================================== ======================