NBA Week 5 thread (35-20, +$1738 on the year)...

[vinnyvegas]

Wasn't looking good early...but no worries! Thx bud!

[BigMike]

Nice 4th quarter!!!!!!

[thaikarate1]

Great call B7

Even your personal tarcking plays does well too.

thanks again

[drugstuntman]

[ChangingMyLuck3]

got nervous after the 3rd quarter. minne been lighting it up lately in the 4th quarter. great pick, i was on it.

[LVJimmy]

nice job again Brew...u r money

[molta02]

thanks again for the winner. keep up the good work, its appreciated

[brewers7]

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Early looks at Tuesday's games:

Atlanta at Washington: Speedy Claxton and Lorenzo Wright are probable for Atlanta...How bad is WASH right now?...They have lost 4 straight and 7 of 8...WAS had won 8 straight in this h2h series before ATL broke through on 4/7/06 with a win at ATL...The Wiz have been an Over team at Home this season going Over in 5 of their 6 Home games...Problem is whenever I see an ATL total listed over 200, I cannot help but hve a kneejerk reaction to the Under...The Wiz are pressing and feel tonight is a big game for them, so maybe we have an Under here, but no strong opinion on the total...And like I say, when in doubt, take the points in the NBA as ATL is coming off a very poor performance themselves at ORL on Saturday...

Charlotte at New Jersey: The Nets are coming off a totally unsuccessful Road trip where they went 0-4 SU & 0-3-1 ATS, and that was after a Home thrashing compliments of the Trail Blazers, so the Nets have lost 5 straight...NJ has beaten this expansion franchise 7 out of 8 games, covering 5 times...5 Overs in these 8 h2h meetings, too...This is the longest losing streak for the Nets since November of 2004...I cannot see this veteran team losing to the Bobcats, but again, I am a DOG player, so giving 7 or maybe 7.5 is never a pleasant thought for me...I cannot help but think Under here, but this a bit of a chart-play to the Over as CHAR had 5 straight Unders, and now have 2 straight Overs...

Toronto at New Orleans: No total posted...Morris Peterson questionable for Toronto...Peja Stojakovic and David West are expected to miss for New Orleans...The Away Team has covered 8 of the last 9 in this h2h series, 3 of them being OT games...New Orleans has not come within 17 points of a Vegas total in their last 3 games and were 35 points Under the total at PHOE and 29.5 points Under the Vegas total at Dallas last time out...Again, where are the points coming from tonight for the Hornets?...Toronto is actually showing signs of playing some defense lately as the raptors have gone Under 4 straight and 6 of 7 with the only Over being against Denver (which shouldn't even count)...3 of the last 4 at NO between these 2 have gone Under...Again, I am a DOG player in the NBA, so the points look just fine to me as the Hornets continue to be streaky, starting with a C3, then NC4, then C4 and now a NC3 currently...TOR is 0-7 on the Road, but are 3-4 ATS...

New York at Chicago: Channing Frye is OUT and Quentin Richardson is questionable for NY...Ben Wallace will probably only get fined and not suspended by Chicago Bulls' management for breaking a team dress code for wearing a head band and Wallace has been accused of being insubordinate, too, after the last 2 games and he has had a good talking to by Mr. Paxson, the GM and Coach Scott Skiles...Eddie Curry of the Knicks would love nothing more than to get his first win as a Knick over this Bulls' team since that controversial trade 2 seasons ago, but I wonder if CHI is about to go on a run here now that they have some Home games upcoming and have gotten a few practices in to cure their ills...The Knicks' picture is far from peaches and cream as Stephon Marbury did not take a single shot from the field in his last game (first time in his career he did that) against CHI at MSG...Reporters said he was disinterested the entire game and was still apparently sulking for being benched earlier in the week...Marbury and Coach Isiah Thomas supposedly worked things out behind closed doors so w'll see if Marbury feels ,like playing this time around...This is the back-end of a Home-and-Home series, so I cannot help but immediately look at the team that lost the front-end (that would be the Knicks) to come out and cover this one, and lo and behold, we have 7.5 points (maybe even 8 soon) to use as insurance...These teams have gone Over 4 straight and 5 of 6 h2h and the Bulls did go Over the last 3 games of their Road trip...Bulls have won 7 of the last 8 SU against NY but are a coin-flip at 4-4 ATS...

Minnesota at Houston: Ahhh, yes, the 4-games-in-5-days trend shows up here...To this point of the season, if you blindly bet every game where there was a 4-of-5 team involved, you would be 9-5 ATS...Minny was 1-1 ATS last season in this spot, not covering at SA and covering at PHOE...The Away Team has won 8 of the last 9 in this h2h series, and surprisingly, 7 of the last 9 have gone Over h2h...Now Houston is 2-1 SU BUT 0-3 ATS this season when they have rest and their opponent does not and the Rockets are just 1-5 ATS at Home, not covering 5 straight despite being 5-1 at Home SU...Minny has covered 4 straight Overall...Houston has gone Under 3 straight Overall after many Overs to start the season...I will gobble up these points every time with the 4-of-5 Away Dog and you couldn't pay me to take Houston here...Only 2 T'Wolves starters played more than 33 minutes last night, and with the short travel in-state, I don't see fatigue being a factor...Minny 2-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks so far this season...HOU has Phoenix on Wednesday so this could be a look-ahead spot...

Memphis at Denver: Memphis has put together 6 straight decent games and have covered 5 straight...Denver has won 5 in a row and Covered 4 straight...Denver had won 6 straight in this h2h series until MEMP broke thru and won on 3/17/06 at MEMP...These teams have gone Over 4 straight and 5 of 6 h2h...3 of the last 4 h2h games have hit at least 213, and this is before the new Denver offense got installed this season...MEMP has had 2 straight Unders and DEN way Under last time out so a strong chart-play to the Under for DEN would seemingly be in play, but this is DENVER we are talking about...The only 2 Nuggets' Unders have been against the Clippers...I have to like the Over here...Again, the DOG looks tempting here...

LA Clippers at Sacramento: No total posted...Sam Cassell is questionable and Chris Kaman is OUT for the Clippers...Ron Artest is questionable Sacramento...The Clippers have lost 5 of their last 6 (only win an OT win vs. a short-handed and b2b Philly team at Home) and the Clips have Not Covered 6 straight now after a C5...Ok, the Kings have won 13 straight and 18 of 19 h2h against the Clips...Yes, you are reading that right...SAC 13-6 ATS in those 19 games h2h vs. LAC...When is the last time the Clips won at ARCO?...How about 11/7/97...SAC has won 16 straight at Home vs the Clips, covering 9 of those 16...This h2h series has seen 5 of the last 6 go Over...With all of this history against the Clips, I still like them to Cover because I like NBA DOGs and don't see this NC streak going on forever and more importantly I expect the Clips to rise up here if Cassell isn't playing...A strong chart-play to the Under, though, as SAC had an Under the last time out after 6 straight Overs...

Indiana at Portland: LaMarcus Aldridge probable but not 100% healthy and Joel Przybilla questionable for Portland...Indy is 5-0 SU & ATS in their last 5 h2h meetings with Portland...Indy on the 2nd game of a long Road trip...I'll be honest, absolutely nothing is jumping out at me for this game, so this is a flat-out no-play and I'll see if I can a slight angle to make a pick, but this game just doesn't interest me...

Milwaukee at LA Lakers: Brian Cook is questionable for the Lakers...The lake-show has won 10 straight and 19 of 21 h2h in this series, going 14-6-1 ATS during that span...The Bucks are starting a long Road Trip in a bad way, losing 5 straight SU & ATS...The Lakers could be glancing ahead to a revenge-game with Utah on Thursday...Lakers starting to go Over again, as they started the season with 4 straight Overs, then 6 straight Unders, then 2 Overs and a Push...MILW is banged up and struggling, going Under 4 of 6 and this h2h series has seen 4 of the last 5 stay Under overall and at Staples...

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[brewers7]

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 36-20, +$1838

Sides: 16-8, +$819, Totals: 12-9, +$551, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 3-0, +$250

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Tuesday, November 28

Minnesota Timberwolves +9, -- $162 to win $150 --- (or Minny +9 hcp @1.926, 1.5/10, Pinnacle)

This is 9 at several shops out there...Here we go again with the 4-games-in-5-days trend which carries a John Q. Public Myth or Urban Legend where many people think the Away Team is "tired" and there is no way they can cover in this spot against a rested team...Yet I have tracked this trend for over 10 years and basically, taking the Away Team is a money-maker long-term...Why?...1) Because Vegas knows what the squares think and adjusts the lines and 2) in most cases the 4-of-5 team vs. rested team isn't even a major factor in a lot of these games...Sure, this situational spot has its bad stretches...In fact, last November, this trend did horribly for the Away Team, absolutely horribly, but after every bad stretch comes a good stretch and the Away Teams went 13-3 ATS from roughly mid-DEC through January in this spot last year after the initial bad ATS start...

This season, teams on the Road playing their 4th game in 5 days against a rested Home Team are 8-3 ATS, and all 3 ATS losses were by 3 points or less, with several straight-up victories...Professional athletes don't tire too easily...Plus, Minny had short travel here in-state...Only 2 starters played more than 33 minutes last night, and the emergence of Villlanova rookie Randy Foye has meant that the big free-agent signee in the offseason, Mike James, has not even gotten off the bench in the 4Q during crunch time the last 2 games...So James certainly isn't "tired", playing 22 minutes last night and neither is Foye, who played 26 minutes, the 2 Point-guards on this team...Now we look at the h2h matchup between these 2 teams and we see that the Away Team has won 8 of the last 9 in this h2h series...Minny has won outright their last 4 trips into Houston, including a back-ender last season at HOU when HOU had rest...HOU is 5-1 SU at Home but 1-5 ATS at Home, Not Covering 5 straight so far this season...Everything points in one direction in this game, and that is to the Timberwolves...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Tuesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Min, 2) NY, 3) Char, 4) Memp, 5) Milw, 6) Memp, 7) Tor, 8) Atl, 9) Ind

Totals:

1) Memp ov, 2) Char un, 3) Tor un, 4) Atl un, 5) NY ov, 6) LAC un, 7) Milw ov, 8) Min un, 9) Ind un

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$100)
Last 3 days: 3-0 (+$300)
Last 7 days: 8-5 (+$272)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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[vinnyvegas]

B7, your sides need a correction...Memphis listed twice.

[molta02]

thanks and GL with the play

[brewers7]

B7, your sides need a correction...Memphis listed twice.

My bad and thanx...

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Tuesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Min, 2) NY, 3) Char, 4) LAC, 5) Milw, 6) Memp, 7) Tor, 8) Atl, 9) Ind

Totals:

1) Memp ov, 2) Char un, 3) Tor un, 4) Atl un, 5) NY ov, 6) LAC un, 7) Milw ov, 8) Min un, 9) Ind un

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[Spearit]

Brewers- Looking forward to your posts. Took T-Wolves tonight based on your observations- Keep up the fine analysis. Good Fortune to us!

[ELJUGO]

Always appreciate your insight Brewers. Thanks bro

[Kaptain]

brewer/vinnie

I guess I'm used to seeing his plays & it is crystal clear for me...

I just look for dollar figures & line and I'm good to go...

Spark knows B7 from a time ago or may recall him from before BC days...

Thanks fellows----I just couldn't quite pick out what he was doing....since you and he explained it, it's quite easy even for the Old 1/2 Blind Kapt........

Appreciate your response, and also thank you for taking my question in a mature and professional manner.........

Keep up the good work, and keep em coming----kapt