The Bum's 2018 NBA Trends/Stats/Best Bets Thru The Playoffs !

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s 6-pack

Since 2001, longest streaks of consecutive games reaching base:
63— Orlando Cabrera
57— Barry Bonds
56— Ryan Klesko
53— Alex Rodriguez
52— Shin-Soo Choo, Kevin Millar
50— Gary Sheffield

Quote of the Day
“Just the way he gave the deadline. He’s been a tremendous player there for them, but to me, that gives just enough ammo for the fans out there to not really like that and enough for the Seahawks to maybe do what they’ve done, jettisoning some of their other players before they overpay.”
Former Raiders coach Jack del Rio

Tuesday’s quiz
How many major league teams has Terry Francona managed?

Monday’s quiz
Russell Wilson played college football for NC State and Wisconsin.

Sunday’s quiz
Hubie Brown coached the Kentucky Colonels in the ABA.

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Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

13) You never know about team chemistry, what goes on behind closed doors.

Last week, Marquette G Markus Howard announced he was coming back for his senior year, which was surprising, considering the kid had skipped his senior year of HS to begin college when he was 17 years old. But you figured it was very good news for Marquette.

Yesterday, brothers Sam/Joey Hauser announced they’re in the transfer portal, and will be leaving Marquette, which was really almost shocking news. As Darren MacGavin said in The Natural, “Something is amiss”

You don’t have to be Columbo to come to the conclusion that the Hauser brothers didn’t enjoy playing basketball with Markus Howard.

12) Fred Hoiberg is the new coach at Nebraska; in 2011, he quickly upgraded Iowa State’s program by bringing in transfers. Nebraska is the early favorite to land the Hauser brothers.

11) In his last two starts, hitters swung at 103 of Jacob deGrom’s pitches:
— 24 misses (23.3%)
— 52 foul balls (50.5%)
— 27 balls in play, with 13 of those hits (.481). Not good.

Last year and in his first two starts this year, hitters swung at 1,725 of deGrom’s pitches:
— 504 misses (29.2%),
— 645 foul balls (37.4%)
— 533 balls in play, with 188 of those hits (.353) Very good.

Something to track moving forward; he’s having trouble putting hitters away.

10) The gambler who won $1.19M betting on Eldrick Woods at The Masters? The guy is from Wisconsin; apparently it was the first-ever sports bet.

First sports bet he ever makes and its for $85,000? Wow.

9) Non-sports question: Why would someone pay $500,000 so their kid could get into a college? I don’t care if it is USC, Harvard, DeVry University or Ouachita Baptist; whats the point?

If the kid isn’t smart enough to get in the school in the first place, how will they do enough work to get a diploma? Or does the $500K cover that, too? Too many weasels in the world today.

8) Rockies 5, Padres 2— Colorado scored a run in 2nd inning for first time this season; they still haven’t scored in the first inning.

Under is 21-5-3 in Colorado’s last 29 road games.

7) Baseball injuries:
— Rockies put C Chris Iannetta (lat strain) on the IL.
— Phillies put P David Robertson (elbow) on the IL.
— Angels put P Tyler Skaggs (ankle) on the IL.
— Braves put P Jonny Venters (calf) on the IL.

6) Clippers 135, Warriors 131- Golden State blew a 31-point lead, may have lost DeMarcus Cousins with a torn quad muscle. Series is even, 1-1.

Sidebar to Clippers-Warriors series is that Doc Rivers’ daughter is engaged to Portland G Seth Curry, who is Steph Curry’s brother.

5) Brewers 10, Cardinals 7— In five games vs St Louis this season, Christian Yelich has seven homers, 15 RBI.

4) AA Arkansas Travelers didn’t get a hit Sunday, but they beat Tulsa 1-0 in 10 innings.

Starting this year in extra innings in minor league games, innings start with a runner on 2nd base, an incredibly stupid innovation; the run Arkansas scored came in on a bases loaded walk.

I’d rather see tie games than have innings start with a runner on second base.

3) Sacramento Kings fired coach Dave Joerger last week; turns out Joerger wanted the Kings to draft Luka Doncic instead of Marvin Bagley Jr. Maybe Joerger should be the Kings’ GM.

2) RIP to coach John MacLeod, who passed away over the weekend at age 81.

When I was in college, I wrote several letters to coaches around the country, asking how they used statistics (what is called analytics today) in their coaching. Thats how I put myself thru college, as a student manager of the basketball team— we did some interesting stuff with stats.

MacLeod was one of the few people who took the time to answer me, and I always appreciated that. RIP, sir.

1) They ran the Boston Marathon Monday; running 26 miles (and 365 yards) seems excessive to me. Hell, if I drive my car 26 miles I’m looking for a Wendy’s or a McDonald’s. But more power to the people who are way tougher than me. Hope you all had fun.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Tip Sheet
April 15, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

Game 2 – Magic at Raptors – 8:05 PM EST – TNT
Orlando leads series, 1-0

Although both these teams won their respective divisions, many people believed that Toronto would cruise past Orlando. There is still a long way to go in this series, but the Magic stunned the Raptors, 104-101 in Game 1 on Saturday to pick up the franchise’s first playoff victory since 2012 against Indiana. However, the Magic went on to lose the next four games and get knocked out, 4-1.

In the series opener against the Raptors, it was a tale of who would have the ball last as Toronto led by five after one quarter, but Orlando stormed back to grab a 57-49 halftime advantage. The Raptors rallied to take a one-point lead heading into the final quarter as the two went back and forth before D.J. Augustin’s three-pointer with five seconds remaining to go ahead for good.

Orlando cashed as 9 ½-point underdogs, which was the biggest ‘dog to win outright this past weekend. Augustin knocked down 4-of-5 three-point attempts, while scoring 25 points as seven Magic players finished in double-figures. The Magic overcame terrible shooting performances from Nikola Vucevic (3-of-14) and Terrence Ross (2-of-11), but Orlando converted 18-of-20 free throw attempts to beat Toronto for the third time in five tries this season.

Kawhi Leonard paced the Raptors with 25 points in his first playoff game since Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals against Golden State in 2017. However, point guard Kyle Lowry was held scoreless on 0-for-7 shooting, as Toronto slipped to 1-9 in the last 10 playoff series openers since 2014.

The Magic have stepped up on the road of late by compiling a 5-2 SU/ATS record in the last seven games away from central Florida. Orlando was riding a seven-game OVER streak prior to the UNDER of 212 in Game 1, while Toronto compiled a 7-2 mark to the OVER in its previous nine home playoff games before the UNDER on Saturday.

The total on Game 2 opened at 210 ½ and the early action pushed the number up to 212. Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on the second installment from Canada.

He explained, “The total on Game 1 opened at 216 but closed at 212 ½ and even though the ‘under’ cashed, bettors had to put in a full 48 minutes and they were fortunate to avoid overtime as well. At the end of the day, Saturday’s total result was decided by Toronto’s 19-point effort in the second quarter and Orlando’s 18-point third quarter. The Raptors fell in love with the 3-point shot in the loss as they hoisted up 36 attempts from downtown. That heavy lean to the outside kept them off the free-throw line as Toronto finished 9-of-14 from the stripe, which was well below their FT season average at home (21.5 attempts).”

David added, “The good news for Toronto is that it’s only lost back-to-back games at home twice during this year’s regular season and the second losses in those decisions came by a combined three points. The Raptors have been known to struggle in Game 1’s but Game 2 is a different story, especially when they’re not facing a team led by LeBron James. In their last four Game 2’s at home against opponents that didn’t include LeBron, the Raptors have gone 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS behind a defense that only allowed 99.5 PPG. Orlando’s win was very impressive on Saturday but the offense still remains inconsistent. In 21 of its 39 losses this season, the Magic were held to 100 or less points. I don’t see Orlando going up 2-0 here and my top lean would be to their Team Total Under (101).”

Game 2 – Spurs at Nuggets – 9:05 PM EST – NBA TV
San Antonio leads series, 1-0

The third underdog to win on Saturday was the Spurs, who knocked off the Nuggets, 101-96 as 5 ½-point underdogs in the 2/7 matchup in the Western Conference. San Antonio became the first team in this series in 11 tries to win on the other team’s court, while avenging a pair of defeats at Pepsi Center from earlier this season, including a 113-85 setback less than two weeks ago.

Not one Spur scored more than 18 points, but San Antonio used a balanced attack, led by DeMar DeRozan’s 18 points and 12 rebounds. Derrick White came back to his home state of Colorado to post 16 points on 7-of-10 shooting, while backcourt mate Bryn Forbes put up a playoff career-high 15 points for the Spurs. San Antonio picked up its first Game 1 playoff victory since 2017 against Memphis in the opening round.

The Nuggets sure didn’t look like a division winner following a 54-win campaign as Denver shot 42% from the floor, including a dreadful 6-of-28 from three-point range. Jamal Murray struggled from the field with an 8-of-24 performance, while failing to hit a shot from long distance in six tries. Nikola Jokic registered a triple-double with 10 points, 14 rebounds, and 14 assists, as Denver lost at home to San Antonio for the first time since January 2017.

The Spurs and Nuggets finished UNDER the total for the fifth time in five matchups this season, while the losing team was limited to below 100 points for the third time. San Antonio improved to 5-10 in its last 15 road playoff games dating back to 2016, as Gregg Popovich’s team last won a postseason series without home-court advantage in 2010 against Dallas in the opening round.

Along with Toronto evening up its series on Tuesday, David believes Denver will get a much-needed split at the Pepsi Center but he feels the sound investment is on the ‘under’ in Game 2. David said, “The perception of the Nuggets as a run ‘n shoot team is gone and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this total drop lower as the series continues. Denver has watched the ‘under’ go 10-2 at home since the All-Star break and it’s held six teams under 100 points during this span, which rarely happens in the NBA these days.”

“The Nuggets are ranked second in scoring defense (103.5 PPG) at home and San Antonio wasn’t exactly sharp in Game 1. Fortunately, Pop’s team was helped with a 31-point night from the bench and I don’t see the craft veterans repeating that effort. I expect another grinder and I would lean to the Team Total Under (101) for the visitor.”

Game 2 – Thunder at Blazers – 10:35 PM EST – TNT
Portland leads series, 1-0

All eyes were on Oklahoma City potentially beating Portland for a fifth time this season in Sunday’s Game 1 at the Moda Center. However, the Thunder couldn’t throw one in the water from downtown (5-of-29), as OKC fell to its division rival for the first time this season in a 104-99 setback as three-point underdogs.

The Blazers snapped several dubious playoff streaks on Sunday, including a 10-game skid dating back to 2016, while capturing their first postseason series opening victory since 2014 against Houston in overtime of round one. Damian Lillard led Portland with 30 points, including drilling a key three-pointer in the final minutes after the Thunder cut the deficit to one point. Mid-season acquisition Enes Kanter burned his former team by posting a 20-point, 18-rebound performance for Portland, who improved to 10-1 the last 11 games when limiting their

Thunder All-Stars Paul George and Russell Westbrook combined to score 50 points, but shot a horrific 4-of-19 from three-point range. With that loss, Oklahoma City slipped to 0-7 SU and 3-4 ATS on the road in the playoffs since Kevin Durant packed his bags for Golden State following the 2016 season.

In fact, the last road playoff win for Oklahoma City came at Golden State in Game 1 of the 2016 Western Conference Finals. The Blazers last picked up consecutive home playoff victories in the opening round back in 2016 against the Clippers, while the previous occasion in which Portland took a 2-0 series lead at home came way back in the 2000 conference semifinals against Utah, as it eventually won, 4-1.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s games

Orlando won 12 of its last 14 games, covered six of last eight road games; Magic made 14-29 on arc in Game 1 upset win. Raptors were only 9-14 on foul line Saturday; they were 12-36 on arc. Lowry didn’t score in 34:00 for Toronto, but they were +11 when he was on floor, -14 in 14:00 he sat out. Orlando is 3-2-1 vs spread in its last six visits to Canada. Raptors won seven of last nine games overall, are 4-4 vs spread in last eight home games. Toronto won six of its last nine games with the Magic; six of last eight series games stayed under. Seven of last eight Orlando games went over the total.

Nuggets were 6-28 on arc, Murray was 8-24 from floor in 101-96 home loss in Game 1; Denver missed lot of open shots in 4th quarter. Nuggets are 6-7 SU in their last 13 games, 2-6 vs spread in last eight home games. San Antonio won seven of its last ten games; they’re 6-3 vs spread in last nine road games. Spurs’ four subs were +32 in Game 1; Denver’s subs were -27. Home side won 10 of last 11 series games; Spurs are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Denver. Nuggets are in playoffs for first time in six years; their last first round series win was in ’09. All four Game 1’s on Saturday stayed under the total.

Trailblazers held Thunder to 5-33 on arc in 104-99 Game 1 win; Portland won 16 of its last 19 games; they covered their last four home games. OKC won five of its last six games (4-2 vs spread); they’re 4-9 vs spread in last 13 road games. Thunder are in playoffs for 9th time in last ten years; they lost in first round the last two years. Blazers are in playoffs for 6th year in row; they’re 2-9 in last 11 first round series. Thunder won/covered four of their last four games with Portland; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six visits to Oregon. Five of last seven series games stayed under.

[StarDust Bum]

531Orlando -532 Toronto
TORONTO is 230-291 ATS (-90.1 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

533San Antonio -534 Denver
SAN ANTONIO is 32-15 ATS (15.5 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) in the last 3 seasons.

535Oklahoma City -536 Portland
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.




NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, April 16

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ORLANDO (43 - 40) at TORONTO (58 - 25) - 4/16/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 126-162 ATS (-52.2 Units) when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
ORLANDO is 45-35 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
ORLANDO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against Atlantic division opponents this season.
ORLANDO is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ORLANDO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
ORLANDO is 37-27 ATS (+7.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 37-26 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) in home games on Tuesday nights since 1996.
TORONTO is 17-31 ATS (-17.1 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 206-262 ATS (-82.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 7-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 7-5 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (49 - 34) at DENVER (54 - 29) - 4/16/2019, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 1091-956 ATS (+39.4 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 160-118 ATS (+30.2 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 34-24 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
DENVER is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 8-4 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 8-4 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (49 - 34) at PORTLAND (54 - 29) - 4/16/2019, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after a division game this season.
PORTLAND is 46-37 ATS (+5.3 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
PORTLAND is 48-33 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 34-21 ATS (+10.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 34-21 ATS (+10.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 8-5 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 8-5 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, April 16

Orlando won 12 of its last 14 games, covered six of last eight road games; Magic made 14-29 on arc in Game 1 upset win. Raptors were only 9-14 on foul line Saturday; they were 12-36 on arc. Lowry didn’t score in 34:00 for Toronto, but they were +11 when he was on floor, -14 in 14:00 he sat out. Orlando is 3-2-1 vs spread in its last six visits to Canada. Raptors won seven of last nine games overall, are 4-4 vs spread in last eight home games. Toronto won six of its last nine games with the Magic; six of last eight series games stayed under. Seven of last eight Orlando games went over the total.

Nuggets were 6-28 on arc, Murray was 8-24 from floor in 101-96 home loss in Game 1; Denver missed lot of open shots in 4th quarter. Nuggets are 6-7 SU in their last 13 games, 2-6 vs spread in last eight home games. San Antonio won seven of its last ten games; they’re 6-3 vs spread in last nine road games. Spurs’ four subs were +32 in Game 1; Denver’s subs were -27. Home side won 10 of last 11 series games; Spurs are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Denver. Nuggets are in playoffs for first time in six years; their last first round series win was in ’09. All four Game 1’s on Saturday stayed under the total.

Trailblazers held Thunder to 5-33 on arc in 104-99 Game 1 win; Portland won 16 of its last 19 games; they covered their last four home games. OKC won five of its last six games (4-2 vs spread); they’re 4-9 vs spread in last 13 road games. Thunder are in playoffs for 9th time in last ten years; they lost in first round the last two years. Blazers are in playoffs for 6th year in row; they’re 2-9 in last 11 first round series. Thunder won/covered four of their last four games with Portland; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six visits to Oregon. Five of last seven series games stayed under.




NBA

Tuesday, April 16

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Trend Report
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Orlando Magic
Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Orlando's last 8 games
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Orlando is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games on the road
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Orlando is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Orlando is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Toronto is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Orlando
Toronto is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Orlando

San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 7 games
San Antonio is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Antonio is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Antonio's last 10 games on the road
San Antonio is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Denver
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Nuggets
Denver is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Denver's last 25 games
Denver is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Denver is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games at home
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio

Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Oklahoma City is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Portland
Oklahoma City is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Portland's last 17 games at home
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
Portland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 7 games when playing Oklahoma City
Portland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Portland is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, April 16


Orlando @ Toronto

Game 531-532
April 16, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Orlando
114.446
Toronto
134.279
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 20
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 10
212
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-10); Under

San Antonio @ Denver

Game 533-534
April 16, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
114.158
Denver
125.021
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 11
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 6 1/2
208
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-6 1/2); Over

Oklahoma City @ Portland

Game 535-536
April 16, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
123.532
Portland
122.826
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 1
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 2
222
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(+2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, APRIL 16
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ORL at TOR 08:00 PM
ORL +10.0
O 212.0

SA at DEN 09:00 PM
SA +7.0
O 209.0

OKC at POR 10:30 PM
POR -1.5
U 223.0

[Udog]

NBA Playoffs Betting Stats - Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Favorites SU: 6-4
Favorites ATS: 6-4
Home Teams SU: 6-4
Home Teams ATS: 6-4

Over/Under: 2-8

[StarDust Bum]

Leonard, Raptors rout Magic; Murray rallies Nuggets
April 17, 2019
By The Associated Press

TORONTO (AP) Kawhi Leonard scored 37 points, Kyle Lowry bounced back from a scoreless playoff opener with 22 and the Toronto Raptors routed the Orlando Magic 111-82 on Tuesday night, evening their Eastern Conference first-round series at one win apiece.

Pascal Siakam had 19 points and 10 rebounds for the Raptors, who never trailed and led by as many as 34.

Game 3 is Friday night in Orlando.

Despite playing in foul trouble for much of the night, Leonard finished with a career playoff-high 15 field goals. He made his first nine attempts from inside the arc before missing a layup. He shot 15 for 22 before leaving to a standing ovation with 4:46 remaining and Toronto ahead 104-73.

Lowry, who missed all seven attempts in Game 1, shot 8 for 13 and added seven assists.

Aaron Gordon scored 20 points, Terrence Ross had 15 and Evan Fournier 10 for the Magic, who won Saturday's Game 1 104-101 on a tiebreaking 3 by D.J. Augustin with 4.2 seconds to go.

NUGGETS 114, SPURS 105

DENVER (AP) - Jamal Murray missed his first eight shots before a scorching fourth quarter in which he scored 21 of his 24 points, leading Denver past San Antonio and knotting their playoff series at a game apiece.

The Nuggets were in danger of losing a second straight game at the Pepsi Center after posting the NBA's best home record (34-7) during the regular season. They trailed 78-59 late in the third quarter before closing the game on a 55-27 run.

The series shifts to San Antonio, where the Nuggets haven't won since 2012, for Game 3 on Thursday night.

Paul Millsap added 20 points for Denver and Nikola Jokic just missed his second triple-double of the series, scoring 21 points, pulling down 13 rebounds and dishing out eight assists.

The Spurs got 31 points from DeMar DeRozan, 24 from LaMarcus Aldridge and 17 from Derrick White.

BLAZERS 114, THUNDER 94

[StarDust Bum]

SCHEDULE FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 17, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
7:05 PM Indiana Pacers Boston Celtics TD Garden
8:05 PM Detroit Pistons Milwaukee Bucks Fiserv Forum
9:35 PM Utah Jazz Houston Rockets Toyota Center


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NBA PLAYOFF RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

04/16/2019 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
04/15/2019 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
04/14/2019 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
04/13/2019 7-1-0 87.50% +29.50

Totals..............14-10-0 58.33% +15.00


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS

04/16/2019.............1 - 1.....................-0.50....................1 - 1.................-0.50...............-1.00
04/15/2019.............0 - 1.....................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
04/14/2019.............2 - 2.....................-1.00....................2 - 2.................-1.00...............-2.00
04/13/2019.............3 - 0.....................+15.00.................3 - 0.................+15.00............+30.00

Totals.....................6 - 4.....................+8.00....................6 - 4.................+8.00.............+16.00

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s 6-pack

— There have been 210 NHL playoff series where a team led 3 games to 0:

— Team leading 3-0 was 128-82 in Game 4 (now 130-82).

— Team leading 3-1 was 59-23 in Game 5

— Team leading 3-2 was 14-9 in Game 6.

— Team that led 3-0 was 5-7 in Game 7.

— Columbus/Islanders were underdogs that led series 3-0 this week.

Quote of the Day
“If you can’t hit the fastball, I can’t help you.”
Unnamed hitting coach to Nomar Garciaparra, many years ago. He told the story on the air during the Dodger game last night.

Wednesday’s quiz
When Gerald Ford became President in 1974, who was his Vice President?

Tuesday’s quiz
Terry Francona has managed the Phillies, Red Sox and Indians.

Monday’s quiz
Russell Wilson played college football for NC State and Wisconsin.

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Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

13) 4:50am late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, my phone starts beeping; figured some other terrible thing must’ve happened in the world, but instead they announced that Russell Wilson signed a 4-year, $140M extension with the Seahawks.

At 4:50am, 1:50am in Seattle.

I’m guessing they could’ve waited a couple of more hours to announce it, but no……

12) Tennessee basketball coach Rick Barnes was asked directly if he would have left for UCLA if the Bruins had covered his $8M buyout: “I think I would have been the coach at UCLA.”

Why would he say that now, if he was happy in Knoxville? Once he turned down the UCLA job, why would he talk about it again?

11) Baseball injuries:
— Tampa Bay Rays’ ace Blake Snell (toe) goes on the IL- Apparently a granite pole fell on his foot in his bathroom at home. Seriously.
— Brewers put P Freddy Peralta (shoulder) on the IL.

10) When Golden State led the Clippers by 31 points Monday night, some courageous (or drunk) person in Las Vegas wagered $50 on the Clippers to win the game SU, at 100-1 odds. He/she collected $5,000 when the Clippers won, which buys a lot of alcohol.

9) As of Tuesday at 2pm, there were 683 college basketball players in the transfer portal; with 353 D-I college basketball teams, that works out to 1.93 players per team, and it is a big part of what is hurting the quality of play in college basketball.

There is so little continuity from year to year; look at Nevada, which just hired Steve Alford to replace Eric Musselman. Right now, Nevada has zero players who will be eligible to play when the season starts in November. Not one. None. Bupkis.

8) In 2013, Aaron Rodgers signed a deal that pays him $23M a year, and ate up 17.9% of the Packers’ salary cap. In 2019, Seattle just signed Russell Wilson to a $35M a year contract that will eat up 18.7% of the Seahawks’ salary cap.

7) Phillies 14, Mets 3— Phillies scored eight runs in this game before they made an out; Mets made four errors in first inning. This was only 2nd time ever the Mets allowed 10+ runs in the first inning, other time coming in July 1988.

Steven Matz is first MLB pitcher since Paul Wilson in 2005 to allow eight runs without getting anyone out, although the shortstop did make two errors behind him.

If you like to plan ahead, baseball’s 2026 All-Star Game will be held in Philadelphia, to help commemorate our country’s 250th birthday.

6) New York 8, Boston 0— Chris Sale is now 0-4, 8.50 this season; Boston is paying him $15M this year, then $164M more from 2020-25.

Red Sox found a scapegoat for their 6-11 start when they DFA’d catcher Blake Swihart Tuesday afternoon, and brought Sandy Leon back to the majors.

5) Cardinals’ 1B Paul Goldschmidt hit his 7th home run Monday night; he hit 7th home run last year on May 30. St Louis has a very potent lineup.

4) Columbus Blue Jackets have been in NHL for 19 years, had never won a playoff series, until they beat Tampa Bay 7-3 last night and swept the Lightning. Tampa Bay had 30 more points than the Blue Jackets this season, had the NHL’s best record.

This is a big reason why the NHL playoffs are better than the NBA’s version; #8-seeds can and often do win playoff series. Hardly ever happens in the NBA.

3) Temple/USC will start a home/home basketball series this fall, with the Owls visiting the Galen Center this year, with the Trojans coming to Philly in the fall of 2020.

USC poached grad transfer Daniel Otumi away from the Akron Zips; Otumi averaged 14.2 ppg LY and shot 37% behind the arc.

2) Most baseball strategy is fairly cut/dry, but one gray area that gets people’s blood boiling is when a game is tied going to bottom of 8th or 9th inning; does the visiting team use its closer with the game tied to keep the game alive, and then use a lesser pitcher to close the game if they get the lead later on, or do they hold the closer back for when they (hopefully) get the lead?

It is an interesting question; pitchers are so pampered these days, managers more and more see the big picture instead of just today’s game.

We’re a long way from 1980, when the A’s had there different starting pitchers throw 14-inning complete games, because the Oakland relievers back then weren’t very good.

1) NFL Draft is a week from tomorrow; I’m tired of mock drafts, which are nothing but fake news that we learn nothing from. The draft is a fascinating process, but having media people guess multiple times at what is going to happen is simply a waste of time.

NO ONE KNOWS what is going to happen; thats why it is so interesting.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
April 17, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

Game 2 – Pacers at Celtics – 7:05 PM EST – TNT
Boston leads series, 1-0

Indiana dropped three of four matchups with Boston this season, but looked to steal Game 1 of their first round series at TD Garden. The Pacers led the Celtics, 45-38 at halftime, but Indiana went ice-cold in the third quarter by getting outscored, 26-8, while converted only two field goals. Boston finished off Indiana, 84-74 to cash as 7 ½-point favorites and easily hit the UNDER on the total of 210 ½.

The Celtics improved to 4-0 in the last four playoff series openers, led by Kyrie Irving and Marcus Morris’ 20 points apiece. Irving shot 6-of-17 in his Boston postseason debut after missing last year’s run to the Eastern Conference Finals with a knee injury. Both the Celtics and Pacers were miserable from the floor (Indiana 33%, Boston 36%), but Nate McMillan’s squad misfired on 21-of-27 attempts from three-point range, while Cory Joseph led the way with 14 points.

Boston ended a seven-game ATS slide at TD Garden, marking its first home cover since March 1 against Washington. The 74 points allowed by the Celtics marks the best defensive effort this season as Boston yielded 77 points to Chicago on December 8, while Brad Stevens’ team gave up 83 points twice to Cleveland in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals.

VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia checks in with his take on this matchup, “It’s easy to go into Game 2 and ride the UNDER eyes-closed given the series-opening result, but keep in mind that the Pacers were only held under 90 points three times this season and bounced back to top the century mark each time they took the floor next. Since the Celtics have only had two instances where they held opponents under 100 points in consecutive games in 2019, trends favor Indiana bouncing back, but it is going to need a better game plan than it came out with to open the second half after leading at the break.”

From the Pacers’ perspective, Mejia breaks down what they need to do in order to bounce back, “Tyreke Evans will have to be more aggressive and Indiana will need Bojan Bogdanovic and Doug McDermott to shoot far better than they managed in shooting a combined 0-for-7 from 3-point range.”

Boston has won and covered in all four Game 2’s under Stevens after coming up victorious in Game 1, as all four wins came by double-digits. Indiana suffered only second ATS loss in the last 11 road playoff games dating back to 2016, while the Pacers were dealt their first postseason defeat by at least 10 points since Game 3 of the 2016 first round against the Raptors.

Game 2 – Pistons at Bucks – 8:05 PM EST – NBA TV
Milwaukee leads series, 1-0

It feels like this series was over even before it began when news broke that Pistons’ All-Star Blake Griffin was sidelined due to a lingering knee injury. Detroit didn’t have much of a chance even with Griffin available as the Pistons lost all four regular season meetings with the top-seeded Bucks, but Sunday’s Game 1 at Fiserv Forum was enough proof this series will be done quickly.

Milwaukee jumped out to a 38-18 advantage after one quarter and cruised to a 121-86 blowout over Detroit to improve to 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS the last five matchups. All five Bucks’ starters finished in double-figures, led by MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 24-point, 17-rebound performance. The Bucks shot 49% from the floor and knocked down 15 three-pointers, while limiting Detroit to 38% shooting as reserve Luke Kennard led the Pistons with 21 points.

In the three losses at Fiserv Forum this season, the Bucks have outscored the Pistons by 23, 23, and 35, which doesn’t give Detroit backers a lot of faith even as hefty 15-point underdogs in Game 2. The last double-digit ‘dog that lost a first round series opener by more than 30 points and covered in Game 2 was the Mavericks in 2016, who tripped up the Thunder as 14-point underdogs, 85-84.

Game 2 – Jazz at Rockets – 9:35 PM EST – TNT
Houston leads series, 1-0

Last season, Houston needed five games to eliminate Utah in the second round of the playoffs. The Rockets continued their postseason domination of the Jazz in Sunday’s 122-90 rout to easily cash as 6 ½-point favorites. Seven Rockets posted double-figures, paced by James Harden’s 29 points, while Houston knocked down 15-of-41 three-pointers for its third consecutive victory over Utah since losing the first two meetings with the Jazz this season.

Utah was limited to 39% shooting from the floor, while getting outscored, 39-19 in the fourth quarter. Rudy Gobert led the Jazz with 22 points and 12 rebounds, but the Jazz misfired on 20 three-point attempts. Quin Snyder’s team lost each of their series openers last season, as they managed to grab Game 2 victories as underdogs against Oklahoma City in the first round and Houston in the second round.

Mejia is back with his thoughts for Game 2 at the Toyota Center, “This is definitely one of those matchups where the old cliché about the series not starting until the home team loses a game applies, but the Jazz need to at least save a little face before heading back to Salt Lake City. Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles shot a combined 8-for-22 while the bench finished an incredible 4-for-26, which included a pair of missed Grayson Allen layups that helped the Game 1 total remain just UNDER the closing number of 212.5. Jae Crowder and Royce O’Neale have been reliable all season and must be better. Considering the likelihood that they bounce back, the OVER may be the way to go in this one.”

All three matchups in Houston have finished UNDER the total, as the oddsmakers did not move off the 212 ½ number from Game 1. The Rockets moved to 7-1-1 to the UNDER in the past nine games at the Toyota Center, while improving to 6-0-1 ATS the last seven home contests. The Jazz were riding a five-game ATS hot streak as a road underdog prior to Sunday’s blowout loss, as Utah owns a 9-4 ATS mark under Snyder in the playoffs when receiving points away from Salt Lake City.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s games

Indiana was up 7 at half Sunday, then got outscored 46-29 in 2nd half, scoring 8 points in third quarter of brickfest where both teams shot under 37%. Pacers are 4-10 in its last 14 games overall; they covered three of last four road games. Celtics won seven of their last nine games; they’re 1-8 vs spread in their last nine home games. Over is 11-6 in in their last 17 games. Pacers lost their last four games with Boston; they’re 3-3 vs spread in its last six visits to Beantown. Seven of last 11 series games went over. Pacers are in playoffs for 8th time in nine years; they lost their first round series the last three years.

Milwaukee crushed Detroit by 35 in Game 1; game was 70-43 at the half. No one on the Bucks played more than 25:00. Unless Blake Griffin can play, Pistons are lost cause here. Bucks won nine of last 11 games with Detroit; under is 6-2-1 in last nine series games. Pistons are 2-4-1 vs spread in last seven visits to Milwaukee. Detroit is 4-5 in its last nine games; they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight road games. Bucks won eight of last 11 games; six of their last eight games went over. Milwaukee is in playoffs for 3rd year in row; they lost last eight first round series- their last series win was in ’01.

Houston made 15-41 on arc in easy 122-90 Game 1 win over Utah; Jazz shot only 39%. Utah won eight of last 11 games; they’re 6-3 vs spread in last nine road games. Three of last three Jazz games went over the total. Rockets won/covered seven of its last eight games; they’re 6-0-1 vs spread in last seven home games. Over is 3-2-1 in their last six games. Houston won eight of its last 11 games with the Jazz; six of last eight series games stayed under. Jazz is 3-2-1 vs spread in its last six visits to Houston. All five Rocket starters scored in double figures in Game 1; Harden had “only” 29, a good sign for Houston.

[StarDust Bum]

Warriors C Cousins has torn left quad
April 16, 2019
By The Associated Press

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) DeMarcus Cousins has a torn left quadriceps muscle that will sideline the Golden State center indefinitely, a devastating injury that the Warriors feared was serious when he went down in the first quarter of their first-round playoff loss to the Clippers.

An MRI exam Tuesday morning on Cousins' left leg revealed the tear. The two-time defending NBA champion Warriors said Cousins will begin rehabilitation immediately and updates will be ''provided as appropriate.''

Coach Steve Kerr said after the Warriors' 135-131 Game 2 loss on Monday night that Cousins would be out for a significant period.

Playing in just his second career postseason game after a nine-year wait, Cousins went down in the first quarter in front of the Golden State bench after swiping a ball from Patrick Beverley in the back court. He immediately grabbed at his left quad. Cousins hobbled to the locker room at the 8:09 mark.

Cousins had just returned in January from a nearly yearlong absence following surgery for a torn left Achilles tendon suffered while with the Pelicans last season.

He had two points, two rebounds and an assist in less than 4 minutes Monday. He fouled out of Saturday's 121-104 Game 1 win with nine points, nine rebounds and four assists in 21 minutes.

''I know it's frustrating for him. I've been through something like that, getting hurt, getting all the way back and then getting hurt again, so I know how frustrating it is,'' Warriors center Kevon Looney said. ''He is a resilient guy. He's been through adversity before and I know he's going to bounce back. His spirit is probably low right now, but he's a tough guy and he'll be back better than ever.''

Looney picked up more minutes with Cousins' injury and scored a career-high 19 points while making all six of his shots in 19 minutes. Kerr is likely to use a combination of shot-blocking presence Andrew Bogut and Looney going forward this postseason.

Bogut's signing last month for a second stint with the franchise means so much more now. Kerr called him an ''insurance policy'' and Bogut - who had been playing back home in Australia - has made the most of his chances. He had nine rebounds, three points and a blocked shot in 16 minutes Monday.

He played on the Warriors' 2015 championship team and the 73-win team the following season that lost in Game 7 of the NBA Finals to LeBron James and the Cavaliers.

The No. 1 overall draft pick in 2005 out of Utah, Bogut has been open to any role Kerr chooses for him, which now could be starting.

''Obviously, there will be more minutes,'' he said after the game. ''It'll still be matchup dependent, but I anticipate probably starting games, playing the first three or four minutes and then coming out.''

Stephen Curry expects the backups to fill the void as the Warriors' depth has done all season, with Jordan Bell also likely to be in the mix.

''Exactly what they've been doing. They've been playing amazing the last part of the regular season and these first two games,'' Curry said. ''... It may look a little different considering the skill and talent and level that Boogie can bring when he's healthy.''

[Udog]

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Game 2 – Pacers at Celtics – 7:05 PM EST – TNT
Boston leads series, 1-0

Indiana dropped three of four matchups with Boston this season, but looked to steal Game 1 of their first round series at TD Garden. The Pacers led the Celtics, 45-38 at halftime, but Indiana went ice-cold in the third quarter by getting outscored, 26-8, while converted only two field goals. Boston finished off Indiana, 84-74 to cash as 7 ½-point favorites and easily hit the UNDER on the total of 210 ½.

The Celtics improved to 4-0 in the last four playoff series openers, led by Kyrie Irving and Marcus Morris’ 20 points apiece. Irving shot 6-of-17 in his Boston postseason debut after missing last year’s run to the Eastern Conference Finals with a knee injury. Both the Celtics and Pacers were miserable from the floor (Indiana 33%, Boston 36%), but Nate McMillan’s squad misfired on 21-of-27 attempts from three-point range, while Cory Joseph led the way with 14 points.

Boston ended a seven-game ATS slide at TD Garden, marking its first home cover since March 1 against Washington. The 74 points allowed by the Celtics marks the best defensive effort this season as Boston yielded 77 points to Chicago on December 8, while Brad Stevens’ team gave up 83 points twice to Cleveland in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals.

VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia checks in with his take on this matchup, “It’s easy to go into Game 2 and ride the UNDER eyes-closed given the series-opening result, but keep in mind that the Pacers were only held under 90 points three times this season and bounced back to top the century mark each time they took the floor next. Since the Celtics have only had two instances where they held opponents under 100 points in consecutive games in 2019, trends favor Indiana bouncing back, but it is going to need a better game plan than it came out with to open the second half after leading at the break.”

From the Pacers’ perspective, Mejia breaks down what they need to do in order to bounce back, “Tyreke Evans will have to be more aggressive and Indiana will need Bojan Bogdanovic and Doug McDermott to shoot far better than they managed in shooting a combined 0-for-7 from 3-point range.”

Boston has won and covered in all four Game 2’s under Stevens after coming up victorious in Game 1, as all four wins came by double-digits. Indiana suffered only second ATS loss in the last 11 road playoff games dating back to 2016, while the Pacers were dealt their first postseason defeat by at least 10 points since Game 3 of the 2016 first round against the Raptors.

Game 2 – Pistons at Bucks – 8:05 PM EST – NBA TV
Milwaukee leads series, 1-0

It feels like this series was over even before it began when news broke that Pistons’ All-Star Blake Griffin was sidelined due to a lingering knee injury. Detroit didn’t have much of a chance even with Griffin available as the Pistons lost all four regular season meetings with the top-seeded Bucks, but Sunday’s Game 1 at Fiserv Forum was enough proof this series will be done quickly.

Milwaukee jumped out to a 38-18 advantage after one quarter and cruised to a 121-86 blowout over Detroit to improve to 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS the last five matchups. All five Bucks’ starters finished in double-figures, led by MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 24-point, 17-rebound performance. The Bucks shot 49% from the floor and knocked down 15 three-pointers, while limiting Detroit to 38% shooting as reserve Luke Kennard led the Pistons with 21 points.

In the three losses at Fiserv Forum this season, the Bucks have outscored the Pistons by 23, 23, and 35, which doesn’t give Detroit backers a lot of faith even as hefty 15-point underdogs in Game 2. The last double-digit ‘dog that lost a first round series opener by more than 30 points and covered in Game 2 was the Mavericks in 2016, who tripped up the Thunder as 14-point underdogs, 85-84.

Game 2 – Jazz at Rockets – 9:35 PM EST – TNT

Houston leads series, 1-0

Last season, Houston needed five games to eliminate Utah in the second round of the playoffs. The Rockets continued their postseason domination of the Jazz in Sunday’s 122-90 rout to easily cash as 6 ½-point favorites. Seven Rockets posted double-figures, paced by James Harden’s 29 points, while Houston knocked down 15-of-41 three-pointers for its third consecutive victory over Utah since losing the first two meetings with the Jazz this season.

Utah was limited to 39% shooting from the floor, while getting outscored, 39-19 in the fourth quarter. Rudy Gobert led the Jazz with 22 points and 12 rebounds, but the Jazz misfired on 20 three-point attempts. Quin Snyder’s team lost each of their series openers last season, as they managed to grab Game 2 victories as underdogs against Oklahoma City in the first round and Houston in the second round.

Mejia is back with his thoughts for Game 2 at the Toyota Center, “This is definitely one of those matchups where the old cliché about the series not starting until the home team loses a game applies, but the Jazz need to at least save a little face before heading back to Salt Lake City. Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles shot a combined 8-for-22 while the bench finished an incredible 4-for-26, which included a pair of missed Grayson Allen layups that helped the Game 1 total remain just UNDER the closing number of 212.5. Jae Crowder and Royce O’Neale have been reliable all season and must be better. Considering the likelihood that they bounce back, the OVER may be the way to go in this one.”

All three matchups in Houston have finished UNDER the total, as the oddsmakers did not move off the 212 ½ number from Game 1. The Rockets moved to 7-1-1 to the UNDER in the past nine games at the Toyota Center, while improving to 6-0-1 ATS the last seven home contests. The Jazz were riding a five-game ATS hot streak as a road underdog prior to Sunday’s blowout loss, as Utah owns a 9-4 ATS mark under Snyder in the playoffs when receiving points away from Salt Lake City.