The Bum's 2018 NBA Trends/Stats/Best Bets Thru The Playoffs !

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet
Chris David

The NBA Playoffs began last Saturday and underdogs came out firing with a 3-1 record both straight up and against the spread. Since those results, favorites have struck back with an eye-opening 14-1 run and the ‘chalk’ has covered in every win, which tells you that the point-spread hasn’t mattered in any of the first 19 games played this postseason. The ‘under’ owns an 11-7-1 record so far and that includes three ‘over’ winners last night.

Friday’s card has three intriguing Game 3’s on tap and all of these series will meet again in Game 4 matchups on Sunday. With the help of experts Kevin Rogers and Tony Mejia, below is our quick handicap of tonight’s action.

Eastern Conference First Round Game 3 (Series Tied 1-1)

Toronto at Orlando (ESPN, 7:05 p.m. ET)

This series has played out accordingly based on Toronto’s recent playoff history – lose Game 1, win Game 2. That’s what happened in Canada and now the Raptors will look to build off their dominating 111-82 victory over the Magic on Tuesday.

Oddsmakers opened Toronto as a 4 ½-point road favorite and a handful of books are holding -5 as of Friday morning. Kevin Rogers offered up his thoughts on Game 3. He noted, “It’s been a minute since the Magic have hosted a playoff game (2012) and a little longer since they were last victorious at Amway Center in the postseason (Game 5 of the 2011 first round). However, Orlando has maintained a strong home-court advantage down the stretch this season by winning nine straight and 13 of the past 14 games in central Florida. The Magic covered in both home contests against the Raptors this season as an underdog, including a 116-87 blowout in late December.”

Orlando finished the season 25-16 SU and 23-17-1 ATS at home and as Rogers mentioned, plenty of those wins came down the stretch. As a home ‘dog, the Magic were hit or miss this season (9-9 SU, 10-7-1 ATS).

The Raptors definitely came to play on the road this season (26-15 SU, 19-21-1 ATS) and they went 4-1 both SU and ATS in their last five games as an away favorite. However, Rogers dug up an angle that could make you hesitant to lay the points tonight.

He explained, “Since Toronto won all three Game 3’s in the 2016 playoffs, the Raptors have dropped four consecutive Game 3’s over the last two postseasons. In the last two seasons in Game 3’s of the first round, the Raptors were blown out at Milwaukee in Game 3 in 2016 by a 104-77 count, while the Wizards ripped up the Raptors, 122-103 in 2017. However, Toronto came back and won both of the series on the road and clinched in Game 6.”

The ’under’ went 2-0 in the first two games and the number closed 212 ½ in each matchup. Friday’s number is hovering between 209 ½ and 210. Toronto averaged 113.7 points per game on the road this season and it leaned to the ‘over’ (23-18) but for this ‘over’ to cash, you’ll need Orlando to produce and it hasn’t been consistent offensively (107 PPG) all season.


Eastern Conference First Round Game 3 (Celtics lead 2-0)

Boston at Indiana (ABC, 8:35 p.m. ET)

We’ve all seen plenty of “Bad Beats” in sports betting in our time but last Wednesday’s Game 2 finish between the Pacers and Celtics was tough to stomach for any bettor who had Indiana +7 ½ points. Boston trailed 91-89 with less than a minute left in the fourth quarter and bettors taking the points were ready to light up the cigar and celebrate. Some newbies may’ve been worried about a potential loss in overtime and that’s fair but Indiana looked golden. Sure enough, Boston closed the game on a 10-0 run and seven of those points came in the final 12 seconds. Pacers head coach Nate McMillan called it the worst minute of basketball he's seen in a long time. The play-by-play doesn’t do the final minute justice and I would suggest catching up when you can with the video.

Fast forward to Friday and Indiana is listed as a three-point home favorite over Boston. I personally don’t like backing teams off bad losses yet alone two poor outings.

I understand that Indiana was in both games but a bad quarter in each contest at TD Garden turned out to be the difference. At the end of the day, losses are losses and the facts are that the Pacers are now 8-16 since the All-Star break and they have nobody that can measure up to Boston’s stars due to the leg injury of Victor Oladipo.

The Pacers have a crafty group of veterans and they’re now led by Bojan Bogdanovic and Thaddeus Young, two solid players but not All-Stars. What wins in the playoffs, All-Stars! It’s been reported that Oladipo is expected to attend Game 3 on Friday, marking his first public appearance in Bankers Life Fieldhouse since his injury. His presence will likely get the squad going in the first quarter and half but can Indiana put forth a 48-minute performance against a more talented team?

By the way, oddsmakers have already juiced up both 1st quarter (-2 ½) and 1st half (-3) numbers on the Pacers. Backing a playoff home team down 0-2 in Game 3 in the first 24 minutes was a well-known system that turned out some great profits over the years, close to 90 percent. But it tapered off last year (5-5 ATS) and you can see that the books took the value out of the angle with these numbers. OKC is also in play and its Game 3 numbers (quarter, half) are even more inflated.

The Celtics are listed as high as plus-130 (Bet $100 to win $130) on the money-line tonight. Brad Stevens team was much better on the road last season (28-13) compared to the current campaign (21-20). As a road ‘dog, the club went 6-8 SU and 8-6 ATS. In last year’s playoff run without a full healthy squad, Boston went 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS. Indiana went 2-1 at home in its first round series loss to Cleveland last season.

The ‘under’ connected easily in each of the first two games and tonight’s total is 204. Neither team has broken 100 points in the playoffs and if the Pacers post another quarter of 8 or 12 points, it’s hard to imagine them getting over the century mark again.


Western Conference First Round Game 3 (Trail Blazers lead 2-0)

Portland at Oklahoma City (ESPN, 9:35 p.m. ET)

Oddsmakers are expecting Oklahoma City (-7 ½) to come out firing at Chesapeake Energy Arena on Friday in Game 3 even after getting humbled in two straight games at Portland.

Tony Mejia provided his handicap on the must-win spot for the Thunder. “I’m looking for the Thunder to not bother with the pleasantries as they host this must-win Game 3. There can’t be a feeling-out process. There’s no time for Paul George to find a rhythm with his shoulder issue or for Russell Westbrook’s jump shot to magically return. Oklahoma City must impose its will on the defensive end, something it failed to accomplish in Portland in letting C.J. McCollum and Enes Kanter immediately establish themselves in the opening quarter to provide support for Damian Lillard. McCollum is averaging 28.5 points per game in the series, so keeping him from becoming a factor early has to be a major point of emphasis,” said Mejia.

As Mejia noted, George hasn’t been George in this series but he’s encouraging his teammates to keep firing. ''Keep shooting,'' George said after Wednesday’s loss. ''We're going to make shots. Keep shooting. We missed shots, so what? Keep shooting.''

Those following OKC this season know that it’s not a great 3-point shooting team outside of George and if they play like they did in Portland, another loss seems inevitable. This season, the Thunder have gone 2-14 when shooting 41 percent or less from the field. OKC shot 39.8 percent in Game 1 and 40.7 percent in Game 2 while going a combined 10-of-61 (16%) from 3-point land.

Mejia believes we’ll see the Thunder be more aggressive on defense and that sets up a potential first-quarter wager. He explained, “The Blazers held off OKC at home on the strength of a brilliant first 12 minutes in Game 1 and a dominant Game 2 third quarter. If the Thunder are going to turn things around, they must physically impose their will on the defensive end. Since the venue change will naturally have Portland on its heels as it seeks out a comfort zone, capturing the first quarter is a must for the Thunder. Riding Oklahoma City -3.5 is appealing. Backing under 54 is a play I highly recommend. The threat of the Blazers eventually finding a rhythm exists since they have the shooters to hunt down the Thunder if they suffer through one of their stretches where points are hard to come by, so the safest bet on OKC is probably one that capitalizes on its hunger early.”

Portland lost both of its visits to Oklahoma City this season (123-114, 120-111) and its defense was diced up in each matchup. The Trail Blazers have always been a better home team but they’ve been great as visitors down the stretch. Since losing at OKC on Feb. 11, Portland closed the season with an 11-5 record both SU and ATS on the road. The five setbacks came by an average of 6.8 PPG and that’s in the same average of tonight’s spread.

Trail Blazers All-Star Damian Lillard has stepped up in this series (29.5 PPG, 5 APG) and some pundits now believe he’s better than Russell Westbrook. In 15 head-to-head matchups, Lillard’s team holds a slight 13-12 edge so the argument has some substance. I’m a fan of both players and if Lillard really wants to grab the torch, then he needs to produce on the road in the playoffs.

Portland won its first two road playoff games with Lillard in the 2013-14 postseason, Game 1 and 2 at Houston. Since those victories, the Trail Blazers have gone 1-16 SU and 3-13-1 ATS with the lone win coming against a hobbled Clippers team missing two All-Stars (Paul, Griffin). You want respect “Dame” from bettors? Cashing a 5/2 money-line ticket as a live road ‘dog would certainly get it.

Since Kevin Durant departed the Thunder, the team has gone 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS at home in the playoffs.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Zig-Zag Theory
April 17, 2019
By Marc Lawrence

Playoff Trends to Watch

Exposing The NBA Zig Zag Theory

By now you've heard about the Zig Zag theorem in the NBA playoffs. In handicapping circles, Zig Zags are trendy applications that are purported moneymakers during the playoffs. The premise is simple: ‘Play On’ a team off a playoff loss in its very next game.

The theory is that in a short series involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue it's losing ways.

How have these plays held up of late? You might be surprised.

Here are the pointspread results of NBA Playoff Zig Zags outlined from 1991 through 2018.

Game Breakdown

Overall: 910-832-42 • 52.2%
Game Two: 218-190-13 • 53.4%
Game Three: 227-186-7 • 55.0%
Game Four: 187-192-11 • 49.3%
Game Five: 153-140-7• 52.2%
Game Six: 90-89-2 • 50.3%
Game Seven: 35-35-2 • 50.0%

The moderate strength of NBA Zig Zags appears to be in Games Two and Three where collectively they become better than a 54% point spread proposition on the blind.

Return To The Mean

Like all things that are popular, though, Zig Zags eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.

A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an adjustment by the oddsmakers has seen the NBA Zig Zags go up in smoke since 2001.

That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays slipped dramatically the last 16 years (2001-2018), going 599-583-32 – or 50.7% - overall as opposed to a 311-249-10 mark – or 55.5% - in games played from 1991-2000.

That’s a decline of almost 5 percentage points. Or in bottom-line terms, they have been major money burners on the blind the last 18 seasons. That’s what I would call a major buzz kill.

Round ‘Em Up

Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared during each round of the NBA Playoffs since 1991:

Round One: 440-405-25 • 52.1%
Round Two: 273-237-8 • 53.5%
Round Three: 133-128-6 • 51.0%
Round Four: 64-62-3 • 50.8%

While it appears Round Two holds a scant edge, it should be noted that home teams off a double-digit loss in Round Two have yielded the largest profits, as they are 92-63-4 (59.4%).

Planting The Seeds

Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared by seed during NBA Playoffs:

No. 1 Seeds: 135-120-5 • 52.9%
No. 2 Seeds: 129-111-4 • 53.7%
No. 3 Seeds: 109-100-10 • 52.2%
No. 4 Seeds: 89-95-1• 48.4%
No. 5 Seeds: 88-82-4• 51.8%
No. 6 Seeds: 76-64-3 • 54.3%
No. 7 Seeds: 53-74-5• 41.7%
No. 8 Seeds: 70-59-5 • 54.3%

Note these results are since the 1996 season when our database first began charting seeds.

Note the disparate results that abound between No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.

Rocky Mountain High

So when is it we can still expect to catch the best possible result when firing up with these with NBA Zig Zags these days, you ask?

Simple. Look to support double-digit underdogs coming off a loss as these stalwarts are 57-36-2 (61.2%) overall since 1991. And if they scored 88 or fewer points in their last game they’ve gone 34-14-2 ATS over the same span. That’s a pretty high 70.8% winning percentage despite yielding a scant less than two plays a season.

So with Zig Zags confirmed money burners over the past 18 seasons, it might be best to stop zigging when you should be zagging and put this worn out theory to rest.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, APRIL 19
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TOR at ORL 07:00 PM
TOR -5.5
O 211.5

BOS at IND 08:30 PM
BOS +2.5
U 205.5

POR at OKC 09:30 PM
POR +8.0
O 222.0

[StarDust Bum]

Celtics take 3-0 series lead, beating Pacers 104-96
April 19, 2019
By The Associated Press

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) Russell Westbrook had 33 points and 11 assists and the Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Portland Trail Blazers 120-108 on Friday night to cut their series deficit to 2-1.

Paul George added 22 points, Jerami Grant had 18 and Dennis Schroder 17 for the Thunder. They will host Game 4 on Sunday night.

Damian Lillard scored 32 points, but he had just three in the fourth quarter after scoring 25 in the third. C.J. McCollum had 21 and Enes Kanter added 19.

Oklahoma City closed the second quarter on a 10-1 run to take a 49-39 lead. Lillard was held to four points on 2 -or-6 shooting and the Trail Blazers shot 37.5% in the half.

George hit a 3-pointer, was fouled and made the free throw in the opening minutes of the second half to push Oklahoma City's lead to 55-43. Westbrook backed down Lillard, hit a bank shot and was fouled. Westbrook brought out his ''rock the baby'' celebration, then made the free throw to put Oklahoma City up by 15.

Lillard scored 23 points the rest of the quarter to help cut Oklahoma City's lead to 86-82 at the end of the period. McCollum hit a 3-pointer to tie it at 89 early in the fourth. Oklahoma City regained control, with Westbrook's jumper with just over two minutes remaining putting the Thunder up 10.

CELTICS 104, PACERS 96

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Jaylen Brown scored 23 points and Kyrie Irving added 19 to help Boston beat Indiana for a 3-0 lead in the first-round series.

The Celtics can close out the Eastern Conference series Sunday in Indianapolis.

Irving also had 10 assists and five rebounds.

Tyreke Evans matched his career playoff high with 19 points for the Pacers. Bojan Bogdanovic had 15, not enough to prevent Indiana from losing its sixth straight to Boston in the regular season and playoff.

Indiana desperately needed a win to avoid facing its second sweep in three years, but Boston started fast and closed it with a 10-4 spurt late in the fourth quarter. And once again, Boston's defense turned the game by allowing just 12 points in the third quarter.

RAPTORS 98, MAGIC 93

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) - Pascal Siakam had 30 points and 11 rebounds, Kawhi Leonard added 16 points and Toronto held off Orlando to take a 2-1 lead in the Eastern Conference series.

Siakam was 13 for 20 from the floor and the Raptors held Orlando to 36% shooting. Leonard had 10 rebounds, Danny Green had 13 points and Kyle Lowry finished with 12 points and 10 assist.

Terrence Ross led Orlando with 24 points, and Nikola Vucevic shook off a slow start to finish with 22 points and 14 rebounds.

Game 4 is Sunday night in Orlando.

Lowry's 3-pointer with 7:48 left gave Toronto its biggest lead at 86-69. The Magic came flying back, and Ross' 3-pointer with 41 seconds left got Orlando to 96-93. Leonard was short with a jumper on the next possession - but the Magic couldn't control the rebound, and were doomed shortly afterward. Leonard made a pair of free throws with 12.9 seconds remaining to make it a two-possession game again.

[StarDust Bum]

SCHEDULE FOR SATURDAY APRIL 20, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
3:05 PM Philadelphia 76ers Brooklyn Nets Barclays Center
5:35 PM Denver Nuggets San Antonio Spurs AT&T Center
8:05 PM Milwaukee Bucks Detroit Pistons Little Caesars Arena
10:35 PM Houston Rockets Utah Jazz Vivint Smart Home Arena


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NBA PLAYOFF RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


04/19/2019 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
04/18/2019 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
04/17/2019 6-0-0 100.00% +30.00
04/16/2019 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
04/15/2019 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
04/14/2019 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
04/13/2019 7-1-0 87.50% +29.50

Totals..............25-17-0 59.52% +31.50


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS

04/19/2019.............1 - 2.....................-6.00....................2 - 1................+4.50..............-1.50
04/18/2019.............1 - 1.....................-0.50....................1 - 2................-6.00...............-6.50
04/17/2019.............3 - 0....................+15.00..................3 - 0................+15.00.............+30.00
04/16/2019.............1 - 1.....................-0.50....................1 - 1.................-0.50...............-1.00
04/15/2019.............0 - 1.....................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
04/14/2019.............2 - 2.....................-1.00....................2 - 2.................-1.00...............-2.00
04/13/2019.............3 - 0.....................+15.00.................3 - 0.................+15.00............+30.00

Totals....................11 - 7....................+16.50...................12 - 7................+21.50............+38.00

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s 6-pack

Some early point spreads for NFL games this fall:
— Week 2: Browns (-2.5) @ Jets
— Week 4: Cowboys @ Saints (-.5.5)
— Week 7: Patriots (-6) @ Jets
— Week 8: Packers @ Chiefs (-6)
— Week 14: Chiefs @ Patriots (-2.5)
— Week 15: Colts @ Saints (-3.5)

Quote of the Day
“They didn’t like the Gary Sanchez thing with the Home Run Derby, but you can’t fix stupid, you know?”
Logan Morrison, back in April 2018, talking about baseball fans in the Bronx. Morrison signed a minor league deal with the Bronx Bombers this week

Saturday’s quiz
Four of the top five picks in the 1989 NFL Draft are Hall of Famers (Troy Aikman, Barry Sanders, Derrick Thomas, Deion Sanders); Tony Mandarich was the #2 pick that year, an offensive lineman from Michigan State. Which team drafted Mandarich?

Friday’s quiz
Al Pacino coached the Miami Sharks in Any Given Sunday.

Thursday’s quiz
Miami Marlins have won two World Series; they’ve never won the NL East.

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Saturday’s List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….

13) Oakland Raiders sent their scouts home for the weekend; they’re not expected to be back before the draft next weekend. Supposedly, Raiders’ hierarchy (Gruden) doesn’t trust all his people, but doesn’t know exactly who he doesn’t trust. ��

Apparently this isn’t all that unusual; Gil Brandt told a story this week from 1987, where they told one scout about this LB they want to draft (they didn’t really want to). Two days later, a writer in Dallas posts this article about how the Cowboys are going to take the LB, which outed the scout as a leaker. He then became an ex-scout.

12) Other former front office guys have been saying on Twitter this week that the last 8-10 years, teams have been limiting access to a team’s draft board to only the top 3-4 football people.

11) Blue Jays are calling up top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr; he is expected to make his big league debut on Tuesday against the Giants.

10) College basketball is getting to the point where any returning player who scored double figures for a low-to-mid major is getting poached by bigger schools. Norfolk State’s leading scorer entered the transfer portal the week; it makes handicapping during the season that much harder. Will the new player fit in? How much does his departure hurt his former team?

Can’t be much fun for guys who coach in low/mid-majors.

9) Was reading something this week about how they’re using major league baseballs at the AAA level for the first time this year, and home runs have spiked early in the season. Homers in the International League are up 39%; in the Pacific Coast League, 32%.

Same thing hasn’t happened in AA or A ball, so it makes you wonder……

8) San Antonio Spurs’ Derrick White played three years of D-II ball at Colorado–Colorado Springs, transferred and played his senior year for the Colorado Buffaloes; he had zero D-I scholarship offers out of high school. None.

This year, he played 25.8 mpg for the Spurs, scored 9.9 ppg. He scored 36 points in the Spurs’ Game 3 win over Denver Thursday. Good for him.

7) Baseball transactions:
— Red Sox put IF Eduardo Núñez (back) on IL.
— Padres put OF Manuel Margot on the paternity list, called up Jose Pirela.
— Mets put Jacob deGrom (elbow) on the IL.

6) NCAA relaxed some transfer rules for freshmen: Incoming freshmen who enroll in summer school and receive financial aid can transfer and play immediately without a waiver if their coach leaves prior to the first day of fall classes.

This involves situations where a coach gets fired late in the spring or in summer, like couple years ago when Ohio State fired Thad Matta. It does not include football players who are early enrollees.

5) Not sure what the wisdom of the four outfielder shift is; seems like having four infielders would be a better idea. Lot of the guys you use the four OF shift with, if they hit it in the air to the outfield, it is going over the fence anyway.

4) Former UNLV coach Marvin Menzies signed on to be an assistant coach for Dan Majerle at Grand Canyon University in the WAC.

3) Mets’ ace Jacob deGrom will have an MRI on his elbow Monday, which is bad news for the Mets and worse news for my fantasy team.

I mentioned a few days ago how deGrom had trouble putting hitters away in his last two starts, and this is probably a big reason why.

2) Draft trivia; Kyler Murray’s father Kevin was the 11th player taken in the 1982 baseball draft, one spot after Bill Ripken (Cal’s brother).

1) Nick Saban will have hip replacement surgery on Monday; can’t imagine he’d be much fun to have as a patient in the hospital. Good luck to all the nurses……..

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Early Tips
April 19, 2019
By Chris David

Eastern Conference First Round – Game 4 (76ers lead 2-1)
Philadelphia at Brooklyn (TNT, 3:05 p.m. ET)

The 76ers were humbled 111-102 in Game 1 to the Nets as 7 ½-point home favorites last Saturday and the frustration carried over to Game 2 this past Monday as Brooklyn was in striking distance again, trailing 65-64 after the first two quarters.

Philadelphia head coach Brett Brown reportedly gave a very motivated speech at halftime and whatever he said worked. The 76ers outscored the Nets 80-59 in the second-half and cruised to a 145-123 win in Game 2 to even the series. That spirited talk by Brown apparently carried over in Game 3 on Thursday as Philadelphia built a 32-24 lead over Brooklyn after the first quarter before leading 65-59 at halftime.

The club topped their first-half total with 66 points and ended with a 131-115 win over the Nets in Game 3 as 1 ½-point favorites. Philadelphia shot 48 percent from the field and finished 11-of-27 (41%) from 3-point land and it also filled it up from the free-throw line with a blistering 30-of-35 mark (86%).

They did all the damage without All-Star Joel Embiid, who rested his sore knee. His status was downgraded from ‘questionable’ to ‘doubtful’ for Game 4 on Friday evening. Including Thursday’s result, the team is now 9-10 this season without the big man in the lineup.

With or without Embiid, it's become apparent that Nets only chance of winning a game yet alone the series comes down to how poorly Philadelphia shoots from the field. Outside of All-Star D’Angelo Russell, Brooklyn doesn’t have the depth or defense to compete with the Sixers roster of stars.

Oddsmakers had Philadelphia as a two-point favorite but the number dropped to -1 ½ after the Embiid alert was sent out. The total was slightly moved from 233 to 232.

Despite dominating Game 3, Kevin Rogers of VegasInsider.com is still hesitant to lay the points with Philadelphia based on trends that we’ve seen from the club this season. However, he noted that Brooklyn’s recent tendencies haven’t been great either.

He explained, “The 76ers improved to 3-11 ATS this season as a favorite of less than 3 ½ points with Thursday’s blowout of the Nets. Obviously the better team now leads the series, 2-1, but Philadelphia owns a 3-8 ATS mark as a road favorite off a win this season, which includes the Game 3 victory. Since early February, the Nets have not been a reliable home underdog at 1-4 SU/ATS, with all four losses coming by double-digits.”

For what it’s worth, the Nets did trip up the 76ers in the early afternoon matchup last Saturday. Will history repeat itself at the Barclays Center? I delved into results for both clubs in day games (5:30 p.m. ET or earlier) and Brooklyn has gone 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS, which includes its Game 1 win in this series. Philadelphia hasn’t been shabby either, going 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS.

Even though the ‘under’ started out strong in the NBA Playoffs last weekend, we’re starting to see the offensive units come together. The ‘over’ has cashed easily in the last two games in this series and the high side is now 5-1 in the last six meetings between the pair. Without Embiid, the 76ers defense is vulnerable in the paint and the offense doesn’t suffer as much because his absence puts more shooters on the floor. I expect another back and forth contest and my lean would be to Brooklyn’s Team Total Over (115 ½).

Bettors still believing in Brooklyn to rally and win the series can receive 11/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $550) while the 76ers (-750) remain heavy favorites to advance.

Game 5 is scheduled for Tuesday at the Wells Fargo Center from Philadelphia.

Western Conference First Round – Game 4 (Spurs lead 2-1)
Denver at San Antonio (TNT, 5:35 p.m. ET)

The only underdog to show up so far in this year’s playoffs has been San Antonio, who was listed at 9/4 odds (Bet $100 to win $225) to defeat Denver in this best-of-seven series. The short price on the Spurs certainly said a lot considering this was a 2-7 matchup but after watching three games, the oddsmakers lack of respect for the Nuggets has been provden.

As of Friday, San Antonio is now listed as high as a minus-185 favorite (Bet $100 to win $54) to advance while Denver is 8/5 (Bet $100 to win $60) to rebound. VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia provides his thoughts on the series, which could easily be a 3-0 lead for the Spurs.

He said, “The Nuggets have largely been dominated for the better part of three games in this series, so head coach Mike Malone will have to find a way to change things up. The Spurs have seen Derrick White factor heavily in both wins and also have DeMar DeRozan plugged in after a slow start. Nikola Jokic had a game where he looked most like his usual self and Denver still couldn’t get a handle on a solid rhythm.”

Including the 118-108 loss in Game 3 at San Antonio on Thursday, Denver has gone 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games. All of those contests came against playoff teams and the defense has been lit up for 115.4 points per game in that span. During the season, the Nuggets were ranked sixth in scoring defense with 106.8 PPG surrendered.

Knowing the club has been troubled on that side of the court, Denver needs to find more offensive firepower and Mejia has singled out a couple Nuggets to step up on Saturday.

“Outside of that Game 2 fourth quarter where Jamal Murray went nuts and San Antonio’s offense looked unsettled and sloppy, Denver has been outclassed and will need to play its most complete game of the series to get back home even by snapping a 14-game losing streak at AT&T Center. That will require big games from Paul Millsap and Murray, x-factors who have come up empty too often thus far. He dominated down the stretch for a perfectly-timed flurry on Tuesday but has otherwise struggled. Take away his 8-for-9 fourth-quarter showing and he’s shooting 27 percent (10-for-37) for the series, which simply isn’t going to cut it with White shooting nearly 70 percent for the series and coming off a 36-point night. To bounce back, Murray will have to overcome the fact that he’s been decidedly more consistent at home than on the road, where he shot just 40 percent from the field and 33 percent from 3-point range, significantly below his averages,” Mejia said.

Even if Denver receives those contributions, are you willing to bet against one of the hottest home teams in the NBA. Mejia has been strong on San Antonio and he believes another win is very probable. “Denver is a sub-.500 team on the road, while San Antonio has won more home games than every other team besides the Bucks, Nuggets and Trail Blazers, who it would match by avoiding an upset here. I picked the Spurs in the series outright and expect them to be up 3-1 heading back to Colorado,” he added.

San Antonio opened as a 3 ½-point home favorite and the overnight line has held steady but the total was bet down and that’s been the theme in the first three games of this series. Even though the ‘over’ has cashed in the last two games, the number dropped from 211 to 208 for Saturday’s matchup.

Due to their aforementioned defensive lapses, Denver has watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 in its last five away games. During its current 14-game home winning streak over the Nuggets, San Antonio is averaging 112.6 PPG but the total results are a stalemate (7-7) during this span.

The pair will meet in Game 5 from the Pepsi Center in Denver on Tuesday.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Late Tips
April 20, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Eastern Conference First Round – Game 3
No. 1 Milwaukee at No. 8 Detroit (ESPN, 8:05 p.m. ET) -- Bucks lead 2-0
April 14 - Bucks (-15) 121 vs. Pistons 86 (Under 215.5)
April 17 – Bucks (-15.5) 120 vs. Pistons 99 (Over 215)

2018-19 Regular Season (Bucks 4-0, Under 2-1-1)
Dec. 5 - Bucks (-7.5) 115 vs. Pistons 92 (Under 225.5)
Dec. 17 – Bucks (-3) 107 at Pistons 104 (Under 225.5)
Jan. 1 – Bucks (-10) 121 at Pistons 98 (Push 219)
Jan. 29 – Bucks (-7) 115 at Pistons 105 (Over 216)

The Pistons are still playing the wait-and-see game with Blake Griffin, and if we are going to see him in the series, it figures to be here.

Although the organization would prefer he sit out after knee soreness foiled his finest season in the final stages of helping Detroit return to the playoffs, the 30-year-old franchise star is itching to play and hasn’t stopped rehabbing in an attempt to try and play.

The rumor mill has worked overtime regarding his return since he went from ruled out to nearly suiting up for Game 2, while conspiracy theorists believe the team was just trying to keep hope alive to ensure a sellout for the first playoff game in Little Caesar’s Arena history. Griffin wants to be a part of it and didn’t enjoy feeling powerless watching his teammates get largely destroyed in Milwaukee by the top-seeded Bucks.

The Pistons have been outscored by 56 points through the first two games and have only played one solid half out of four, surprisingly taking a 59-58 lead into halftime in Wednesday’s Game 2. The Bucks got busy coming out of the locker room to quickly take control and have imposed their will whenever they’ve needed to take control, doing so in the first few minutes to send a message in the opener and immediately after the break to squash all hope.

If he is, this series at least has a chance to be compelling.

Without Griffin, any lift the Pistons figure to get from a crowd that will get hyped up by star PA announcer Mason and the buzz of the playoffs being back in town figures to be short-lived. Luke Kennard has led Detroit in scoring, averaging 20 points per game while shooting 8-for-11 from 3-point range. The sniper the previous regime mistakenly took over Utah’s Donovan Mitchell with the No. 12 pick has started paying some dividends and caught fire down the stretch to help Detroit finish at .500 and reach the playoffs, but Kennard can’t be your leading scorer at this stage of the season.

If Griffin were able to come back and command some double-teams, the Pistons have gotten shooters Kennard, Wayne Ellington and Langston Galloway plenty of reps to try and gun their way to an upset. Without Griffin to worry about, the Bucks will be able to play straight up and utilize their depth to alter shots, trusting Brook Lopez to handle Andre Drummond’s limited post game one-on-one.

The Bucks are coasting by sharing the ball offensively. All five starters have scored at least eight points in both games. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging a team-high 25 points but only played 30 minutes in Game 2 after playing less than half of the opener. Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton have taken full advantage of their matchups and center Brook Lopez has led his team in plus-minus despite averaging just 11 points per game on 7-for-15 shooting.

Complacency is the only thing that’s going to keep the Bucks from sweeping the Pistons if Griffin stays away, and realistically, that’s pushing into dramatic territory. Even if Milwaukee doesn’t cover in Game 4, it would likely find a way to end the series so that it can start concentrating on the Celtics. The only way I can see Detroit pulling off a victory would be Griffin returning today and giving his team a solid 35 minutes, which I’m not sure is physically possible. A perfect combination of Griffin’s contributions and the infusion of energy a home crowd can boost the Pistons would have a chance of producing an upset if the Bucks lend a had with a poor shooting night. Milwaukee didn’t exactly shoot the lights out in the first two games in Fiserv Forum, finishing 26-for-69 from 3-point range (35 percent). In two visits to Little Caesar’s Arena this season, the Bucks shot 38.5 percent (22-for-57).

In other words, this could get uglier. Keep an eye on news out of Detroit throughout the day to see if there’s definitive word on Griffin, though I doubt we’ll see any until close to tip-off. The Bucks have some mental hurdles to overcome in getting up for the possibility of his presence in the series since their focus may crash if he isn’t cleared. They can’t afford something like that on the road, at least as far as them covering a sizeable spread is concerned. The Bucks matched the Warriors as the league’s top road team during the regular season, winning 27 of 41 away from home.

Only the Clippers (+10000) were a bigger underdog entering this first round than the Pistons (+2000) were against the Bucks, who were a 5-to-4 (+125) choice to win the East at the Westgate SuperBook even before the Raptors and 76ers blew their first-round Game 1s. Milwaukee entered the playoffs +600 to win the NBA title behind favored Golden State (-200) and led the NBA in wins and margin of victory all season while ranking in the top-five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Westgate tweaked their odds to win the East to even money and made them +500 to win the title as Golden State came down to -180.
Milwaukee has seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 in its last nine contests. The ‘under’ has prevailed in five of the last seven games involving Detroit.


Western Conference First Round – Game 3
No. 4 Houston at No. 5 Utah (ESPN, 10:35 p.m. ET) -- Rockets lead 2-0
April 14 – Rockets (-6.5) 122 vs. Jazz 90 (Under 212.5)
April 17 – Rockets (-6.5) 118 vs. Jazz 98 (Over 215)

2018-19 Regular Season (Split 2-2, Under 3-1)
Oct. 24 – Jazz (+1) 100 at Rockets 89 (Under 217)
Dec. 6 – Jazz (-1.5) 118 vs. Rockets 91 (Under 215.5)
Dec. 17 – Rockets (-5) 102 vs. Jazz 97 (Under 212)
Feb. 2 – Rockets (+7) 125 at Jazz 98 (Over 222)

The biggest disappointments we’ve seen so far in these playoffs have all been injury-related. Detroit’s Griffin being unable to play has made an entire series unwatchable. Golden State losing DeMarcus Cousins and Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid’s being unable to shake his knee soreness have significantly affected our ability to watch history unfold. It would’ve been fun to see Boogie chase a title. We’re missing out on Embiid doing his thing after emerging as one of the most physically gifted players ever.

The biggest disappointment we’ve seen from a collective unit has come out of Utah. At least fellow No. 5-seed Indiana has no Victor Oladipo as an excuse for being down 3-0 to Boston, not to mention the fact it has actually been competitive and in every fourth quarter. The Jazz and Rockets have seen more garbage time this past week than most sanitation departments.

The Rockets finished off a 122-90 Game 1 win with a dominant performance in which the only mystery by game’s end came on the total, which failed to go ‘over’ by a half-point. Houston led by 28 points entering the fourth in Game 2 and combined to finish the deal for ‘over’ bettors with a productive final few minutes in which Isaiah Hartenstein saw the floor and contributed.

The Utah Jazz didn’t expect to see Hartenstein take the floor in this series. They probably didn’t expect to be throwing Ekpe Udoh out there at any point. The ugliness factor was unpredictable.

After putting away Sunday’s Game 1 by outscoring the Jazz 39-19 over the game’s final 12 minutes, the Rockets used a 39-19 first quarter to set the tone in Wednesday’s Game 2. The symmetry was impressive. Harden scored 25 first-half points while the Jazz opened by missing 13 of their first 14 3-point attempts. Donovan Mitchell is shooting 12-for-37 from the field in this series (32 percent) and said he and his teammates simply didn’t show up in Houston. Joe Ingles has shot 4-for-12 from the field and is just 2-for-9 from 3-point range. He looks disconnected.

James Harden has averaged 30.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 10 assists while easily managing to deal with Utah’s gimmick defense that has served to throw it completely out of rhythm.

Getting back home and having another two full days of preparation time afford the Jazz one last opportunity to try and salvage its season since a 3-0 hole would obviously be insurmountable considering two more games await in Houston.

Utah has won eight consecutive games at home, last losing on March 11. The Jazz were humbled by the Rockets the last time the teams squared off at Vivint Smart Home Arena, losing 125-98 on Feb. 2.

Each team won on the other’s home court once during the regular season and got blown out there as well. Rudy Gobert got ejected over a beef with the refs in the second meeting, a 27-point Jazz win, but he struggled with foul trouble in one of the games and finished with just 10 points in the 27-point loss in the most recent encounter back in February.

Between its guards struggling and Gobert being unable to impose his will as he’s typically able to, it’s no wonder Utah has looked so lost. Despite averaging 16.5 points and 12 rebounds in the series, Gobert is worst on the team in plus-minus at minus-43 thus far and has failed to significantly throw off either counterpart Clint Capela nor Harden on his drives.

After watching Houston cruise past Utah in each of the first two games at the Toyota Center, the Rockets are surprisingly listed as a road underdog for Game 3. VegasInsider.com NBA expert Chris David is among the masses confused by the number.

“As they say in boxing, styles make fights and Utah doesn’t have an answer for Houston on either end of the court. Outside of Donovan Mitchell, they don’t have anybody that can create a shot and if he’s off, the Jazz are done and that’s been the case so far,” David said. “Going back to last year’s conference semifinals matchup between the pair, Houston has won eight of the past 11 encounters and the Jazz needed to explode for 116 and 118 points in two of their wins. I just don’t see this year’s group turning it on, even at home. The late-season schedule was a joke and while they went 18-6 since the All-Star break, 14 wins came against non-playoff teams and that weak competition hasn’t prepared them for this series.”

The Jazz weren’t even as impressive at home this season as they have previously been, but they’re counting on the venue change and an opportunity to get their legs up under them as a way to get back in the series. The books labeling them the ‘favorite’ is odd since no one would’ve blinked to see the Rockets in that role or for this Game 3 to have been a pick’em, but the number budged only from 3 points to 2.5 as of Saturday morning. Many looking to bet this game will be factoring in their pre-series expectations of a long series in contrast with what we’ve seen thus far. VI’s David doesn’t face that problem.

“I expected this first round outcome to be a 4-0 sweep and I’ll press that prediction with a Rockets win on Saturday. Make a note that when catching points in this year’s regular season, the Rockets went 10-8 both SU and ATS and they didn’t cover in any of their losses. They have won four of their last five games in the underdog role, all against playoff clubs, and that includes the 27-point win at Utah in early February,” David explained. “Instead of taking the minimal points, I would suggest Houston on the money-line at +125 or get cute and play an adjusted number at a global book (5Dimes) on the Rockets at -1 ½ (+142), -3 ½ (+173) or -5 ½ (-235) with an even better return.”

The ‘over’ has prevailed in four of the last five Jazz games, but the late-season atmosphere might have had something to do with that. The ‘under’ had gone 14-6 from Feb. 27-April 5. The low-side in 15-6-1 over the Rockets’ last 22 contests since the beginning of March.

[StarDust Bum]

[StarDust Bum]

557Philadelphia -558 Brooklyn
PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 ATS (9.6 Units) after a division game in the current season.

559Denver -560 San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days in the current season.

561Milwaukee -562 Detroit
DETROIT is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

563Houston -564 Utah
UTAH is 79-53 ATS (20.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.




NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 20

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PHILADELPHIA (53 - 32) at BROOKLYN (43 - 42) - 4/20/2019, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-28 ATS (-13.8 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
BROOKLYN is 92-74 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 34-25 ATS (+6.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
BROOKLYN is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
BROOKLYN is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BROOKLYN is 52-36 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 38-24 ATS (+11.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 142-116 ATS (+14.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a division game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 77-56 ATS (+15.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 7-7 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 10-5 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (55 - 30) at SAN ANTONIO (50 - 35) - 4/20/2019, 5:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 34-47 ATS (-17.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 1092-957 ATS (+39.3 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 861-735 ATS (+52.5 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games against Northwest division opponents this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 83-56 ATS (+21.4 Units) in home games in all playoff games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 224-169 ATS (+38.1 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 197-145 ATS (+37.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 35-25 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 9-5 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 9-5 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (62 - 22) at DETROIT (41 - 43) - 4/20/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 158-201 ATS (-63.1 Units) on Saturday games since 1996.
DETROIT is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 49-32 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 42-29 ATS (+10.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
MILWAUKEE is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 39-27 ATS (+9.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 38-25 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
DETROIT is 119-166 ATS (-63.6 Units) in home games after a division game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 7-5 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 11-3 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (55 - 29) at UTAH (50 - 34) - 4/20/2019, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 40-29 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 38-23 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 37-24 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 11-6 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 13-5 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 20

76ers won Game 3 by 16 without Embiid (knee); they made 11-27 on the arc, after going 12-48 in first two games. Philly scored 80-66 points in 2nd half of last two games. Seven of 76ers’ last nine games went over. Both teams took 35 foul shots in Game 3, which was 65-59 at the half. Sixers are 4-5 in last nine games overall, 3-5 vs spread in last eight road games. Brooklyn’s bench was +74 in Game 1, -7 in both Game 2/3; Nets are 3-6 vs spread in last nine home games. Brooklyn was 8-39 on arc Thursday after going 26-62 in Games 1-2. Sixers won six of their last nine games with Brooklyn; four of last five series games went over.

Spurs outscored Denver 23-9 on foul line in 119-109 Game win Thursday; White scored 36 for San Antonio- they were +30 with him on court, -20 in 15:00 he was off floor. Home team has now won 12 of last 13 series games. Denver lost its last five visits (2-3 vs spread) to the Alamo. Nuggets are 7-8 in their last 15 games overall, are 1-6 vs spread in last seven road games; they were 15-29 on arc in Game 3, still lost by 10. Five of last seven series games stayed under the total. Spurs’ starters were +97, subs -47 in Game 3- SA bench is -81 in last two games.

Bucks won first two games of this series by 35-21 points; Detroit actually led Game 2 by point at the half, then got outscored 35-17 in 3rd quarter. Bucks won ten of last 12 games with Detroit; under is 6-3-1 in last ten series games. Milwaukee won nine of last 12 games; seven of their last nine games went over; Bucks covered four of last six road games. Detroit lost six of its last eight games overall; they’re 9-2 vs spread in last 11 home games. Five of Pistons’ last seven games stayed under total. Seven of last nine Milwaukee games went over. Teams split last four series games played here (Pistons 2-1-1 vs spread).

Rockets won first two series games by 32-20 points, leading by 15-26 at the half while scoring 59-70 points. Houston is 32-83 on arc in series, Jazz is 15-65. Rockets won/covered eight of their last nine games overall; they’re 7-4 vs spread in last 11 road games. Houston won nine of its last 12 games with the Jazz; under is 6-2-1 in last nine series games. Over is 3-1-1 in last five Utah games. Jazz won its last eight home games; their last loss in SLC was March 11 to OKC. Rockets won/covered three of last four visits to Utah, winning last visit here by 28.




NBA

Saturday, April 20

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Brooklyn
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Brooklyn is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Brooklyn is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Brooklyn is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Denver Nuggets
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Denver's last 25 games
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 15 games on the road
Denver is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of San Antonio's last 24 games
San Antonio is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver

Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 9 games
Milwaukee is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Milwaukee is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 11 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Milwaukee is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Milwaukee is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit Pistons
Detroit is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Detroit is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Detroit is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Detroit is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

Houston Rockets
Houston is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Houston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Houston's last 22 games
Houston is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games on the road
Houston is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Utah
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Utah
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah Jazz
Utah is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Utah's last 10 games at home
Utah is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games when playing Houston
Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Utah is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, April 20


Philadelphia @ Brooklyn

Game 557-558
April 20, 2019 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
118.497
Brooklyn
120.389
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brooklyn
by 2
237
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
232
Dunkel Pick:
Brooklyn
(+1 1/2); Over

Denver @ San Antonio

Game 559-560
April 20, 2019 @ 5:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
119.712
San Antonio
119.466
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
Even
203
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 3 1/2
208
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+3 1/2); Under

Milwaukee @ Detroit

Game 561-562
April 20, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
125.761
Detroit
112.607
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 13
231
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 8 1/2
216
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-8 1/2); Over

Houston @ Utah

Game 563-564
April 20, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
119.875
Utah
126.308
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 6 1/2
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 2 1/2
216
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-2 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, APRIL 20
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

PHI at BK 03:00 PM
PHI -2.0
U 231.5

DEN at SA 05:30 PM
SA -3.5
U 207.5

MIL at DET 08:00 PM
DET +9.0
O 216.0

HOU at UTA 10:30 PM
UTA -2.5
U 215.5

[StarDust Bum]

Embiid returns to help 76ers beat Nets
April 20, 2019
By The Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) Joel Embiid had 31 points and 16 rebounds, and passed to Mike Scott for the go-ahead 3-pointer with 18 seconds left as the Philadelphia 76ers beat the Brooklyn Nets 112-108 on Saturday to take a 3-1 series lead.

Embiid also had a flagrant foul that led to a scuffle and two ejections during an eventful return to the lineup after missing Game 3 with a sore left knee.

Tobias Harris had 24 points, eight rebounds and six assists for the 76ers. They can advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals for the second straight season with a victory at home Tuesday night.

They got a big boost from the return of Embiid, who scored eight straight points in the fourth quarter after the Nets led by seven. He helped the 76ers overcome the loss of Jimmy Butler, who was ejected in the third quarter after Embiid's hard foul on Jarrett Allen.

Caris LeVert scored 25 points after being inserted into the Nets' starting lineup. D'Angelo Russell and Allen each added 21.

Jared Dudley also was inserted into the starting lineup for the Nets and had been agitating the 76ers with his defense and his talking, but was gone midway through the third quarter as one of the central figures in the scuffle that spilled into the stands.

Embiid swung his arm forcefully while fouling Allen, and Dudley quickly moved in and bumped Embiid. Butler then ran in and pushed Dudley to start the shoving. Dudley, Simmons and referee Ed Malloy all got knocked into the seats, and after a lengthy video review, Butler and Dudley were given technical fouls and ejected, and Embiid's foul was ruled a flagrant 1.

Embiid would later make the biggest mark with his offense. The 76ers were trying to get the ball to him trailing by one after Joe Harris' layup, but Embiid couldn't control the pass under the rim. But he regained the ball and found Scott in the corner for a 3 and a 110-108 lead.

Allen then turned the ball over after three Sixers surrounded him and Harris closed out the scoring with two free throws.

NUGGETS 107, SPURS 103

SAN ANTONIO (AP) - Nikola Jokic had 29 points and 12 rebounds, Jamal Murray added 24 points and Denver beat San Antonio, rebounding from a flat performance tie the series at two games apiece.

LaMarcus Aldridge had 24 points and nine rebounds for San Antonio. DeMar DeRozan added 19 points before he was ejected with five minutes remaining after arguing with an official over an offensive foul.

Game 5 is Tuesday night in Denver.

BUCKS 119, PISTONS 1-3

DETROIT (AP) - Khris Middleton had 20 points and nine rebounds and Milwaukee beat Detroit to take a 3-0 series lead.

The Bucks can finish off the Eastern Conference series Monday night in Detroit.

The Bucks overcame 27 points, seven rebounds and six assists from Blake Griffin in his return from a right knee injury. He missed the first two games of the series after sitting out four of the final six in the regular season.

Brook Lopez and Eric Bledsoe each scored 19 points for Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 14 points and 10 rebounds, struggling with foul trouble.

ROCKETS 104, JAZZ 101

[StarDust Bum]

SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY APRIL 21, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
1:05 PM Boston Celtics Indiana Pacers Bankers Life Fieldhouse
3:35 PM Golden State Warriors Los Angeles Clippers Staples Center
7:05 PM Toronto Raptors Orlando Magic Amway Center
9:35 PM Portland Trail Blazers Oklahoma City Thunder Chesapeake Energy Arena

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NBA PLAYOFF RECORD OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

04/20/2019 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
04/19/2019 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
04/18/2019 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
04/17/2019 6-0-0 100.00% +30.00
04/16/2019 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
04/15/2019 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
04/14/2019 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
04/13/2019 7-1-0 87.50% +29.50

Totals..............29-21-0 58.00% +29.50


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS................... ..UNITS..................O/U..................UNITS.............TOTALS


04/20/2019.............1 - 3.....................-11.50..................3 - 0................+15.00.............+3.50
04/19/2019.............1 - 2.....................-6.00....................2 - 1................+4.50...............-1.50
04/18/2019.............1 - 1.....................-0.50....................1 - 2................-6.00................-6.50
04/17/2019.............3 - 0....................+15.00..................3 - 0................+15.00.............+30.00
04/16/2019.............1 - 1.....................-0.50....................1 - 1.................-0.50...............-1.00
04/15/2019.............0 - 1.....................-5.50....................0 - 1.................-5.50...............-11.00
04/14/2019.............2 - 2.....................-1.00....................2 - 2.................-1.00...............-2.00
04/13/2019.............3 - 0.....................+15.00.................3 - 0.................+15.00............+30.00

Totals....................12 - 10..................+5.00...................15 - 7................+36.50............+41.50

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack

More spreads on NFL games this season:
— Week 2: Saints @ Rams (-3)
— Week 3: Rams (-2) @ Browns
— Week 8: Browns @ Patriots (-6.5)
— Week 12: Cowboys @ Patriots (-5.5)
— Week 14: Cowboys @ Bears (-2.5)
— Week 15: Colts @ Saints (-3.5)

Quote of the Day
“We didn’t count velocity; we just counted outs.”
Jim Kaat, talking about his playing days

Sunday’s quiz
Which NFL team drafted Eli Manning?

Saturday’s quiz
Four of the top five picks in the 1989 NFL Draft are Hall of Famers (Troy Aikman, Barry Sanders, Derrick Thomas, Deion Sanders); Tony Mandarich was the #2 pick that year, an offensive lineman from Michigan State. Green Bay drafted Mandarich.

Friday’s quiz
Al Pacino coached the Miami Sharks in Any Given Sunday.

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Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……..

13) Twins-Orioles broadcast Saturday was great; Jim Kaat, Bert Blyleven were the analysts and it was educational. Play-by-play guy described the action on the field then got out of the way and let the two experts talk. Good stuff.

Kaat was saying how much harder batters work now before the game, and he referenced Aaron Judge going on the IL Saturday with an oblique strain. It is possible to overtrain.

12) Auburn’s Chuma Okeke tore his ACL during the NCAA tournament, but he is entering the NBA Draft anyway, not really sure why. You’d think he’d stay in school, use the school’s facilities to strenghten/rehab his knee, then go into the ’20 draft. We’ll see how this works out for him.

11) Advice from Bucky Brooks, former NFL player and scout:

“If you’re a HS football player who isn’t playing baseball in the Spring, you SHOULD run track for your school. Speed is such an important part of being a top-notch football player. Learning how to run and compete on the track carries over onto the field.. Dare to be great..”

10) Interesting trivia on this year’s NFL schedule:
— NFL’s Senior VP of broadcasting Howard Katz is one of the people who makes the NFL schedule every year.
— Philadelphia Eagles are only NFL team that plays three straight weeks on road this year.
— Katz and Eagles’ coach Doug Pedersen are next-door neighbors.

Part of the reason the Eagles are on road for three straight weeks in October is that the Phillies are expected to be World Series contenders, and the NFL didn’t want any conflicts between Eagle/Phillies games, seeing how they share parking areas.

9) Miami Marlins fired hitting coach Mike Pagliarulo after 20 games; it ain’t his fault Miami has a bad team. Marlins fired hitting coach Frank Menechino after last season; what they need to do is find an owner who is willing to spend money on ballplayers.

Two years ago, Miami’s outfield was Yelich-Ozuna-Stanton, then the team was sold and the new geniuses who are in charge traded the three of them for three piles of crap. No bueno.

8) Keldon Johnson scored 13.5 ppg this year as a freshman at Kentucky; he is projected by one draft guru to be picked 17th in June’s NBA Draft.

Johnson was seen in Hollywood this week driving a $300,000 McLaren 720S Spider; until watching a Showtime special a few weeks ago, I had no idea that there were cars that cost so much money. Wish the young man well in his NBA career, but someone might want to teach him money management skills before it is too late.

Last year’s NBA rookie salary scale paid the #17 pick a total of $6,358,500 for his first three years in the league. Taxes eat half of that, agent takes another 3%, so he’s down to $2,988,495 before he starts.

Donte DiVincenzo was the #17 pick LY; he played 15.2 mpg, scored 4.9 ppg, so he’s no lock for a second contract in the league when the time comes. The second contract is the key; thats where guys establish themselves in the NBA. Then they can buy the $300,000 car.

7) Baseball injuries:
— New York put Aaron Judge (oblique) on IL.
— Red Sox put P Nathan Eovaldi (elbow) on IL.
— Pirates put 2B Erik Gonzalez (clavicle), CF Starling Marte (abdomen) on IL.
— Phillies put SS Jean Segura (hamstring), P Victor Arano (elbow) on IL.

6) Former Georgia/Miami football coach Mark Richt will be an analyst on the new ACC Network starting this fall.

5) There is a high school football stadium in Jacksonville, TX called the Tomato Bowl.

4) On April 12, CG Technology took these two futures bets:
— Jaguars for $4,000 at 45-1, to win $180,000
— Titans for $2,000 at 85-1, to win $170,000

Long time to let the books hold your money; will odds change that much between now and before the preseason games start this summer?

3) Giants have apparently talked about trading for Arizona QB Josh Rosen, but don’t want to give up either one of their first round picks (6th, 17th picks) in this draft.

Rosen was the 2nd player taken in last year’s draft, so if you won’t give up a first round pick for him now, then you really don’t want him.

2) From Henry Schulman: Since 1912, the longest a team has gone to start a season without scoring a first-inning run is 28 games. Giants are at 22 games and counting thru Saturday.

1) 76ers 112 (-3.5), Nets 108— Philly hit two foul shots with 0:06 left to cover the spread; if you had Brooklyn +3.5, this was a bad beat. Embiid had 31 points, 16 rebounds for Philly.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Early Tips
April 20, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

Game 4 - Celtics (-2 ½, 204) at Pacers – 1:00 PM EST – ABC
Boston leads series, 3-0

The Pacers entered the playoffs without their top scorer in Victor Oladipo and faced a team that was one victory away from the NBA Finals last season. However, Indiana led Boston at halftime in the series opener, held a double-digit advantage heading into the fourth quarter in Game 2, and erased an early 15-point deficit to own a halftime lead in Game 3 at home.

Unfortunately, the Pacers have nothing to show for those second half leads as Indiana sits in a 3-0 hole and needs to save its season with a victory at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Sunday. Rewinding back to Friday’s Game 3, the Celtics jumped out to a seemingly commanding 40-25 first quarter cushion before the Pacers clawed back for a 61-59 halftime edge. Indiana put together its second horrible third quarter in three games by getting outscored, 21-12 as the Celtics held off the Pacers, 104-96 to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs.

Brad Stevens’ team put together a horrible 1-7 mark away from TD Garden in the 2018 postseason, but the Celtics knocked down 15 three-pointers, including four treys from Jaylen Brown, who led Boston with 23 points. Kyrie Irving scored 19 points, highlighted by several big baskets late to give the Celtics breathing room and their sixth consecutive win over the Pacers since losing at Indiana by one in November.

Dating back to 1993, the Pacers have been swept only once in the playoffs, which came two seasons ago against Cleveland in the opening round. Since the start of the 2017 postseason, road teams seeking a sweep in Game 4 own a solid 6-3 SU/ATS record, although Boston suffered one of those losses at Philadelphia in last season’s second round.

VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia checks in with his take on this pivotal Game 4 for the Pacers, “Indiana has had an opportunity to win every game in this series if it had just made plays in the fourth quarter but has been unable to make big shots when it has had to have them most. We’ll see if the Pacers are able to respond with the pressure essentially off of them, but if you believe they’ll play with pride to avoid being swept at home, the high-side may be the way to go.”

“The Pacers have only scored 105 points after halftime through the first three games, so you can expect Nate McMillan to utilize different personnel to try and find a better flow, likely employing more of Tyreke Evans and potentially utilizing guys like Doug McDermott and Kyle O’Quinn more. We’ve yet to see an ‘over’ in this series, but I expect to see a game eclipse 200 points for the first time and consider that more likely than the Pacers forcing a return trip to Boston,” Mejia notes.

Game 4 – Warriors (-8 ½, 235 ½) at Clippers – 3:35 PM EST – ABC
Golden State leads series, 2-1

After the Clippers shocked the Warriors in Game 2 at Oracle Arena by erasing an insurmountable 31-point deficit, Golden State bounced back with a blowout in Los Angeles in Game 3. The two-time defending champions jumped out to a 17-point lead after one quarter as the Warriors cruised to a 132-105 victory to easily cash as 9 ½-point favorites and take back the series lead.

Kevin Durant torched the Clippers for 27 first half points as he finished with 38 points, while Stephen Curry shot an efficient 7-of-11 from the floor for 21 points. Golden State drilled 15 three-pointers, while limiting Los Angeles to 7-of-32 shooting from downtown. Only one Clippers’ starter finished in double-figures as Ivica Zubac posted 18 points and 15 rebounds, while three players off the L.A. bench put up at least 15 points in the loss.

The Clippers fell to 1-6 ATS the last seven games as the only cover came in the Game 2 miracle comeback in Oakland. Each of the past three losses at Staples Center as an underdog have come by 21, 32, and 27 points, which certainly doesn’t bode well to make this a competitive series.

Chris David of VegasInsider.com believes this series will be over in two games but this scheduling spot could bring out the best in the Clippers. He explained, “The hierarchy at the Staples Center has been clear-cut since it’s opened with the Lakers always receiving preferential treatment, then the NHL Kings and lastly the Clippers and I’m sure Steve Ballmer’s team has been bumped for ‘Disney on Ice’ or a ‘Scientology’ seminar over the years as well. With all that being said, Los Angeles is forced into playing many afternoon games at the venue and while the late-arriving crowds create empty seats at times, Doc Rivers' club has flourished in these spots this season.”

“The Clippers have played eight games at the Staples Center which started at 12:30 p.m. PT this season and they went 7-1 both straight up and against the spread. Five of the wins came by double digits and four matchups were against playoff teams. The offense averaged 120.5 PPG, which helped the ‘over’ go 5-2-1 and the lone loss came to Detroit, who received a monster effort from Blake Griffin as he stuck it to his former team. Golden State is clearly the more talented team and I expect them to be up 3-1 after Sunday’s result. However, it’s going to need a big effort and my top lean would be to the Clippers Team Total Over (113 ½) and I would also buy Los Angeles in the first quarter (+3) and first half (+5) in the day matinee as well.”