The Bum's 2017 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News Thru Playoffs !

[StarDust Bum]

Monday's Best Bet
February 12, 2018

Monday NBA Best Bet

Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors

With All-Star weekend approaching at the end of the week, I'll warn NBA bettors to be optimistically cautious with their plays during the coming days as this week can often bring some unexpected results with it. You never know which teams are already mentally packing it in for their week of vacation, which teams are looking to take advantage of opponents in that mind frame, and which are simply too good (or bad) to care.

Tonight's game out in Golden State might fit the latter better than any of the others as the Warriors face a Phoenix Suns team for the first time this year. The Suns aren't even close to a legitimate threat to the Warriors, but is the big point spread number we've got too big? Are the Warriors actually looking ahead to All-Star weekend this early or will they run the Suns out of the gym and move on to the next one.

Golden State (-15.5); Total set at 232.5

After losing two in a row for the first time all year, the Golden State Warriors have responded with consecutive blowout wins against Dallas and San Antonio. The Warriors put up 120+ in each game as their overall talent and depth continues to suffocate lesser opponents into submission early in the second half. Phoenix is likely to put up less resistance than either the Spurs or Mavs did, but even with that being said, that's a lot of chalk to swallow ATS with Golden State, especially during this week of the season.

If there ever was a “perfect” matchup for Golden State to go through the motions knowing they'd get the W just for showing up, tonight's game against Phoenix would be it. The backdoor cover is likely going to be available at some point in the 4th and do you really want to be sweating out a few meaningless possessions late between the reserves for both sides?

I know that's not a particular position I want to be in tonight, on either selection on the side, especially when the entire 4th quarter has a good chance of being garbage time.

Gun to my head I'd lean towards taking all the points with Phoenix and hoping for the best, because the Warriors have been known the last few years to let far weaker opponents through the backdoor on the regular, and Golden State is a prime candidate to be looking completely past the Suns and ahead to All-Star weekend, especially after a slew of national TV games last week. However, it's this total in the 230's that looks much more attractive from a betting perspective to my eyes.

There is no question oddsmakers have to put out a huge number like this in a game where tremendous defense isn't going to be seen. The Suns don't play well on that end of the floor as it is, but Golden State isn't likely to have to ramp things up on defense either against a far inferior team.

Tonight's pace could be one of 60-point quarters the entire way, but then you look at the spread and remember the situation, and that expectation points scored at will might be nothing but a pipe dream in the second half.

Totals like this in matchups like this tend to see 'over' bettors get burned late when garbage time takes over and guys are just out there burning the clock and hoisting up bad shots. This game is a prime candidate for extended garbage time as I've already touched on, meaning 233 points will be hard to reach.

All those reserves on the floor late will decrease the pace substantially, and that's on top of the possibility that this total may be long out of reach already. Phoenix is a team prone to offensive woes as their fans have seen twice in their last three games where they shot 38% against the Lakers in a loss and 34% against the Spurs in a defeat. That game against San Antonio had a 28-9 score after the 1st quarter in favor of the Spurs, and is it really out of the realm of possibilities to see a similar number after 12 minutes tonight?

It's possible we see a similar score if the Warriors look to make a statement early and cruise the rest of the way, and even any big margin in terms of a Golden State lead by halftime is going to be counter-productive to an 'over' play tonight.

The two teams already need to average 58.25 pts/quarter as it is to surpass this total, and while they are likely to get it at least once, if this game goes according the the point spread we've got out there, the final 24 minutes should see far fewer points scored.

So look for this game to be on a decent pace to start – perhaps a first half 'over' play is the better option if the 'over' is really where your heart is set – but with garbage time and disinterest plaguing the 2nd half of this game in what should be an easy Warriors win, I'm going under this large number.

Oh, and if we do get the rare occurrence that this turns into a close game throughout, that likely means we will get some tight defense played from both sides in the final 4+ minutes. Not exactly a bad option for the 'under' either.

Best Bet: Under 232.5 points

[StarDust Bum]

Dinero Tracker - Feb. 12
February 12, 2018

Read the Dinero Tracker's mission statement here
Last night's ATS Records
NBA: 4-5 | NCAA BB: 7-3

After leading the NBA day off with an in-game parlay win behind the surging Raptors, the rest of my Sunday walk through the pros was filled with unpleasant surprises. College came through at a 70 percent clip, pushing the weekend tally to 14-for-18. The NBA lock is now 18-for-27 (66.7%) since Jan. 11. Here's Sunday's recap, complete with some of the highlights (and lowlights):

MONDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Bulls -4
The Bulls are starting to get all their pieces back, as there's a chance Kris Dunn may even suit up and play some tonight to get his conditioning up. He'd provide a boost, but this pick is simply about riding Fred Hoiberg's new-found depth with Lauri Markkanen back from paternity leave and Zach LaVine getting more comfortable with his minutes restrictions loosening up. The Magic are still depleted and now hit the road, where it's easier to fade. This is Orlando's first game outside of Florida since Jan. 30. Ride Chicago and lay the points.

SUNDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Duke -9
The Blue Devils have been a major disappointment in that they're far too talented to be so incompetent on defense, but these are all good lessons for them to be learning with the NCAA Tournament still one month away. My expectation for today's trip to Atlanta is that they'll take advantage of Georgia Tech's offensive shortcomings to gain some confidence, find a rhythm and win by double-digits. Lay the points and ride Duke.

Result: The line dipped with the news Marvin Bagley III was getting the day off, but the Blue Devils tweaked the lineup, committed to defending and raced out to a huge edge, leading by as much as 26 points. The Yellow Jackedts went on a 15-2 run and nearly slipped through the backdoor like slimy snakes as they pressed and got free-throw misses and were one 3-point make away from breaking freebie pick hearts, but we came through alright in the end.

SUNDAY'S LOCK

The pick: Penn State ML -125
The Illini fell to Wisconsin on Thursday and has largely struggled on the defensive end in their first season under new head coach Brad Underwood. The Nittany Lions have won four of five to rescue their NCAA Tournament aspirations, climbing above .500 in Big Ten play. Beating Ohio State in Columbus was the big win in that mix, while the remaining schedule following this trip into Champaign will give them four opportunities to add a quality win to their resume before the conference tournament, so it's important to get this one in the win column and continue building positive momentum. Look for Tony Carr to deliver and ride Penn State on the money line to avoid laying the bucket on the road, guaranteed.

Result: The Nittany Lions broke open a game that was basically even at the break by scoring the first 12 points of teh second half, holding Illinois scoreless for over seven minutes. Penn State held the Illini to 27.3 percent shooting in the second half.

LOCK THAT DIDN'T CLICK

The pick: Pacers -9
The Knicks are unsure if they'll have Enes Kanter back as he deals with a mouth injury, and they'll be breaking in newly acquired guard Emmanuel Mudiay. On the road, expect a strong game from the Pacers to produce a blowout. Lay the points and ride Indiana for Sunday's guaranteed NBA winner.
NOTE: Kanter is in, so the line dipped some. I still dig Indiana to win by 10+ For the in-game parlay, ride the over.

Result: The Pacers had this game under control throughout, led by another big night from All-Star Victor Oladipo, but obtaining the cover just wasn't meant to be. Kanter played, so this line dipped to where most pushed on the Pacers, but even that feels hollow considering they were up by as many as 20. New York never quit, getting a spark from the newly acquired Mudiay in losing only 121-113.

TOTAL RECALL

The pick: Loyola (Md.)/Lafayette OVER 142
Loyola guard Andre Walker scored 43 points and knocked down six 3-pointers when these teams played in Baltimore last month, but you can bank on Matt Klienewski and the Leopards to get even at home here. Take advantage of this Patriot League clash being on the board and ride Lafayette and the over for the in-game parlay.

Result: Lafayette came through, both with the win and in scoring effectively enough in the second half to comfortably get us an in-game parlay win in their 84-67 victory.

SWING AND A MISS

The pick: Celtics -4
The Celtics have a huge advantage in getting to play this one at home while the Cavs have to figure one another all out following their hectic trade deadline activity. With Kyrie Irving set to work out his latest crop of replacements, George Hill and Jordan Clarkson, I'd expect him to have a big day. Ride Boston and lay the points.

Result: While there was certainly an expectation that LeBron would do his part in trying to spoil Paul Pierce's big day in Boston, I didn't see his new teammates producing as effectively as they managed to against a Celtics team that plays so well at home. Not even a juiced-up atmosphere could prevent the Cavs from punking Boston.

PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE

The pick: Raptors ML -150/OVER 215.5
The Hornets haven't been home since Feb. 2 and will be playing in their building for just the second time in a nine-game span after returning from a Western swing where they won only at Phoenix. The Raptors have scored an average of 127.5 points in a pair of wins against Charlotte this season and should be able to get acclimated nicely here since they're used to Sunday afternoon games. Ride Toronto on the money line and back the over for the in-game parlay.  

Result: Despite falling behind 10-0, the Raptors imposed their will by the end of the first quarter and coasted to a 123-103 win in Charlotte, ultimately winning every quarter. Toronto now enters the week with the Eastern Conference's top winning percentage.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

— Bucknell 65, Colgate 64— Bison trailed by 8 with 0:33 left to play.

— Jazz 101, Spurs 99– Red-hot Utah wins its 10th game in a row.

— Baylor 74, Texas 73 2OT— Bears won their 4th game in a row.

— Portland Pilots are 10-17, 4-10 in the WCC, but they covered their last eight games.

— Andy Kennedy is out after 12 years as Ole Miss’ basketball coach; this is the first time in seven years Ole Miss is under .500 in the SEC.

— Green Bay Packers’ 2018 opponents combined to go 135-115 this past year, so they have the “hardest” schedule in the NFL next season.


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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Scanning college basketball conferences

13) AAC— Cincinnati is 12-0, has a 3-game lead over Wichita State/Houston; I’m thinking all three of these teams make the NCAA’s, but no one else from this league.

12) ACC— Virginia is 12-1, has a 2-game lead over Clemson; surprising. 2014 was last time neither Duke/North Carolina finished 1-2 in the ACC (Virginia/Syracuse). That is the only time since 2002 that has happened.

11) Atlantic 14— Rhode Island Rams are 12-0, have a 4-game lead over both St Bonaventure, Davidson; URI should be in the NCAA’s, but everyone else looks like a longshot to make the Field of 68. Richmond is 7-5 in the A-14, but only 9-15 overall.

10) Big 14— Surprising Ohio State leads Purdue/Michigan State, who were expected to be very good. Michigan should get in with a strong finish; upstarts Nebraska/Penn State are fighting to get off the bubble. OSU coach Holtmann might be national Coach of the Year.

9) Big X— Best league in the country; Texas Tech leads Kansas by a game, West Virginia by 1.5 games. Jayhawks won last 13 regular season titles, so Tech winning the league would be a huge upset. Seven of ten teams in this league are in KenPom’s top 50 in the country.

8) Big East— Xavier/Villanova are in a virtual tie for first place; Musketeers are 8-0 in Big East games decided by 7 or fewer points. Villanova has some injury issues right now, but hope to have everyone back for the postseason.

7) Big Sky— Montana is 13-0, leads Weber State by two games, which doesn’t mean a whole lot, since the conference tournament is on a neutral floor and only the tournament winner will get into the NCAA’s. 9-3 Idaho is 33-15 in conference games the last three seasons.

6) Big West— Cal-Santa Barbara leads Cal-Irvine by half a game; Anteaters were 5-11 when conference play started- they’re #299 experience team in country. UCSB was 6-22 last year; new coach Joe Pasternack has used transfers to get the Gauchos back on track.

5) Colonial— Charleston leads Northeastern by a game; Huskies just won the Beanpot hockey tourney for first time in 30 years- maybe this is their year. This is a one-bid league and their conference tournament will be really wide open.

4) Horizon— 26th-ranked league was 14th three years ago; defections of Loyola, Valparaiso have crippled league. Northern Kentucky leads way this year, with Wright State game behind and UIC game behind them. Another one-bid league.

3) MAAC— Rider/Canisius are tied for the top; Niagara is in 3rd place, Iona in 4th. Conference tournament is in beautiful downtown Albany, but Siena is awful so that shouldn’t matter much. Right now, the 4-5 game would be Iona-Manhattan, which would be very interesting.

2) MAC— Buffalo/Toledo have three less losses than anyone else in MAC and are only teams in league ranked higher than #168. Will be disappointing if they don’t meet in MAC title game.

1) Missouri Valley— Loyola-Chicago has 2-game lead over Southern Illinois, but Ramblers haven’t been in NCAA’s since 1985, so they’ll have lot of pressure on them in Arch Madness.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, February 13

Home side won seven of last nine Miami-Toronto games; Heat are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Canada. Last five series games stayed under. Miami lost five of their last six games; they’re 13-7 vs spread as road underdogs. Three of their last four games went over. Raptors won their last five games; they’re 5-1 in last six games as home favorites. Three of their last four games stayed under.

Hawks covered five of last six games with the Bucks; they’re 6-4 SU in last ten series games. Atlanta covered three of last four visits here. Three of last four series games went over total. Hawks are 4-6 in their last ten games; they’re 10-5 in last 15 games as road underdogs. Over is 6-4 in their last ten games. Milwaukee won eight of its last ten games; they’re 7-5-1 in last 13 games as home favorites. Under is 9-1 in their last ten games.

Rockets won nine of their last ten games vs Minnesota; they’re 1-2 vs spread in last three visits to the Twin Cities. Eight of last ten series games went over. Houston won its last eight games overall, covered four of last six road games. Three of their last four games went over. Minnesota is 4-6 in its last ten games; they’re 2-0 as home underdogs. Wolves’ last four games went over the total.

Cavaliers are 6-4 in their last ten games with the Thunder; they’re 2-2 vs spread in last four tips to Oklahoma City. Under is 5-3 in last eight series games. Cavaliers won their last three games since the three big trades, winning by 2-22-16 points; they’re 5-3 as road underdogs. Let three Cleveland games went over total. Oklahoma City lost five of its last seven games; they’re 4-7 in last 11 games as home favorites. Four of last five Thunder games stayed under total.

Kings won five of last seven games with the Mavericks; they’re 4-1 vs spread in last five visits to Dallas. Three of last four series games stayed under. Sacramento lost four of its last five games; they’re 5-2 vs spread in last seven games as road underdogs. Five of their last seven games went over total. Dallas lost eight of its last ten games; they’re 5-7 as home favorites. Seven of their last ten games stayed under.

Spurs won their last five games with Denver; four of those were in Alamo; San Antonio is 2-1 vs spread in last three visits to Colorado. Four of last six series games went over. Spurs are 1-4 vs spread if playing second of two consecutive notes on road- they lost four of last five games, are 5-5 as road underdogs. Six of their last seven games went over. Nuggets won four of their last five games; they’re 13-11 as home favorites. Six of their last seven games went over.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Tuesday, February 13

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Trend Report
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MIAMI @ TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

CLEVELAND @ OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games
Oklahoma City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

ATLANTA @ MILWAUKEE
Atlanta is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games at home

HOUSTON @ MINNESOTA
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home

SACRAMENTO @ DALLAS
Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games at home
Dallas is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Sacramento

SAN ANTONIO @ DENVER
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, February 13

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MIAMI (30 - 26) at TORONTO (39 - 16) - 2/13/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 76-60 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 143-109 ATS (+23.1 Units) in February games since 1996.
MIAMI is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 33-54 ATS (-26.4 Units) in home games on Tuesday nights since 1996.
TORONTO is 190-238 ATS (-71.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 8-8 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 10-6 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (18 - 39) at MILWAUKEE (31 - 24) - 2/13/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 86-60 ATS (+20.0 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 398-465 ATS (-113.5 Units) in home games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 54-86 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home games in February games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 366-439 ATS (-116.9 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 5-3 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 4-4 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (42 - 13) at MINNESOTA (35 - 24) - 2/13/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 362-423 ATS (-103.3 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 6-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 7-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (33 - 22) at OKLAHOMA CITY (32 - 25) - 2/13/2018, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 3-2 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (17 - 38) at DALLAS (18 - 39) - 2/13/2018, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 7-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 6-3 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (35 - 23) at DENVER (30 - 26) - 2/13/2018, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 6-3 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Tip Sheet
February 13, 2018

Game of the Night: Cavaliers at Thunder – 8:05 PM EST

The overhaul of the Cleveland (33-22 SU, 17-37-1 ATS) roster has worked out through two games as the Cavaliers are coming off double-digit road victories over the Hawks and Celtics. In Sunday’s 121-99 blowout of Boston in a potential Eastern Conference Finals rematch, LeBron James led the Cavaliers with 24 points and 10 assists, while seven Cleveland players scored in double-figures. Among the newcomers from Thursday’s deadline, Jordan Clarkson posted 17 points and Rodney Hood put up 15 points at Boston.

Oklahoma City (32-25 SU, 24-33 ATS) has split the past two games as two of their stars have been sidelined. Both Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony are nursing ankle injuries as the Thunder were blown out by the Lakers last Thursday, but rebounded with a home rout of the Grizzlies on Sunday. Westbrook and Anthony remain questionable for Tuesday, but the third major piece of their core posted a 33-point effort on Saturday as Paul George led OKC to a 110-92 victory over Memphis as short 4 ½-point favorites.

The Thunder humiliated the Cavaliers last month at Quicken Loans Arena in a 148-124 triumph as three-point underdogs. Billy Donovan’s club dropped 76 points in the first half, as George led OKC with 36 points, while Westbrook put together an incredible line of 23 points, 20 assists, and nine rebounds. Following an 0-12 ATS run on the road from mid-December through early February, Cleveland has covered back-to-back away games, while the Thunder has stumbled to a 4-7 ATS record in their past 11 home contests.

Right on Target

A pair of Western Conference division leaders meet up at the Target Center in Minneapolis as the Timberwolves entertain the Rockets. Minnesota (35-24 SU, 28-29-2 ATS) edged past Sacramento on Sunday, 111-106, but failed to cash as 13-point home favorites. In spite of the non-cover, the Wolves picked up their 13th consecutive victory at the Target Center, while covering 10 times in this span.

The Rockets (42-13 SU, 27-27-1 ATS) own the second-best road record in the league behind Golden State at 20-7, while winning four straight games away from the Toyota Center. Houston held off Dallas on Sunday, 104-97, but couldn’t cover as hefty 15-point favorites, falling to 1-10-1 ATS in its last 11 opportunities as a double-digit favorite. The All-Star backcourt duo of James Harden and Chris Paul combined to score 52 points, but the two guards shot 6-of-20 from three-point range, while Houston converted only 13-of-45 attempts from long distance.

Since the start of the 2014-15 season, the Rockets have captured 11 of 12 meetings, including a 116-98 triumph as 5 ½-point home favorites on January 18. Minnesota limited Harden to 10 points on 3-of-15 shooting, but Eric Gordon burned the Wolves for 30 points off the bench, including knocking down seven three-pointers. However, seven of the last 10 matchups between these teams have been played in Houston as the Wolves are 1-4 in the past five meetings in Minneapolis.

Shooting for Seven

The Raptors (39-16 SU, 31-24 ATS) have compiled an incredible 23-4 record at Air Canada Center this season, while winning six consecutive home games. Following a sweep of a four-game homestand to begin February, Toronto cruised past Charlotte on Sunday afternoon, 123-103 as 3 ½-point road favorites to pick up its fifth straight win and cover. Rewinding back to the 4-0 homestand, the Raptors won all four games by double-digits, while limiting each of their final three opponents to 91 points or less.

Toronto looks to avenge a 90-89 setback to Miami from early January as the Heat (30-26 SU, 26-27-3 ATS) head north of the border. Miami snapped a five-game losing streak in Friday’s 91-85 victory over Milwaukee in Dwyane Wade’s return to the Heat lineup. Although Wade registered only three points, the Heat allowed less than 100 points for the first time in five games, while Miami cashed the UNDER for the seventh time in 10 contests.

Dating back to late December, Miami has been on fire as a road underdog by going 8-2 ATS, including a cover as four-point ‘dogs in the one-point win at Toronto on January 9.

No Rest for the Weary

With Houston’s hot start atop the Southwest division, San Antonio (35-23 SU, 30-26-2 ATS) sits in second place comfortably ahead of New Orleans, Dallas, and Memphis. The Spurs are currently the third seed in the Western Conference playoff race in spite of losing four of their past five games, including Monday’s 101-99 setback at Utah. San Antonio led by eight points heading into the final quarter before getting outscored by 10 points in the last 12 minutes as the Spurs shot an ice-cold 6-of-25 from three-point range.

The Spurs registered their fourth consecutive OVER in the loss as they travel to Denver with no rest to face the Nuggets. San Antonio has captured the first two meetings with Denver at home this season, including a 106-104 close shave victory on January 30 as seven-point favorites. The Nuggets (30-26 SU, 26-27-3 ATS) will face the Spurs twice at Pepsi Center in an 11-day span with the next matchup coming right out of the All-Star break as they have dropped nine of the last 10 day with San Antonio.

Denver has won four of its past five games, including a pair of impressive home underdog victories over Oklahoma City and Golden State. The Nuggets are currently on a 6-1 run at Pepsi Center, while owning a perfect 8-0 SU record against unrested squads this season. The Spurs have held their own on the second end of a back-to-back set by posting a 7-4 mark, capped off by recent road wins at Memphis and Sacramento in January.

Buck at Home

If there is one thing that has energized Milwaukee (31-24 SU, 24-26-5 ATS), it has been its recent schedule. The Bucks are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS since the firing of head coach Jason Kidd in late January, while holding seven opponents to below 100 points. For the exception of beating Philadelphia, the other five opponents are not going to the playoffs (New York, Brooklyn, Phoenix, Orlando, and Chicago), but the Bucks have vaulted to a tie for the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference alongside Indiana.

Milwaukee has won four consecutive games at BMO Harris Bradley Center as the Bucks welcome in the Hawks (18-39 SU, 29-26-2 ATS). Atlanta limps in Milwaukee possessing a dreadful 5-22 road record, but snapped a two-game skid in Sunday’s 118-115 home triumph over Detroit. The Hawks have stumbled to a 2-10 record off a home victory, while looking to avenge an 11-point setback to the Bucks in late October at Philips Arena.

Basement Battle

From 2002 through 2004, the Kings and Mavericks met three consecutive years in the playoffs with Sacramento eliminating Dallas twice. Things are quite different now with these two Western Conference franchises as they each sit at the bottom of their respective divisions.

The Mavericks (18-39 SU, 29-27-1 ATS) have slipped to a 3-11 record the last 14 games since a 6-3 post-Christmas run. One of those victories came at the hands of the suddenly-hot Lakers on Saturday, 130-123 as three-point home favorites, but Dallas fell the next night at Houston, 104-97. Rick Carlisle’s team is on a 4-1 ATS run, which started with a 106-99 triumph at Sacramento on February 3 as the Mavs began the fourth quarter on an incredible 16-0 run to erase a four-point deficit.

The Kings (17-38 SU, 23-29-3 ATS) held their own in Sunday’s 111-106 setback at Minnesota as 13-point underdogs, picking up their fifth road cover in the last six tries. Sacramento’s first win of the season came at Dallas on October 20 by a 93-88 count, improving to 3-1 in the past four trips to American Airlines Center since March 2016.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Best Bet
February 13, 2018

Tuesday NBA Best Bet

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Fresh off an impressive debut with all their new faces on the floor, the new-look Cleveland Cavaliers take their new identity out West for the first time tonight. Cleveland is in OKC to take on a Thunder team that lambasted the Cavs a little less than a month ago.

In a season filled with plenty of lows, the 148-124 beating Cleveland took that day might have been the lowest of the lows for this organization. But things are drastically different – at least in the personnel department - for Cleveland this time around and they'd love to replicate the form that brought them a 22-point win over the Celtics on Sunday.

OKC (-1.5); Total set at 222

Oklahoma City is coming off a double-digit win themselves on Sunday after they pounded Memphis 110-92. The Thunder have a return date with the Grizzlies on deck tomorrow which could be quite problematic for them (revenge spot for Memphis, OKC on back-to-back after facing Cleveland, last game before All-Star break), and that's definitely something to keep in mind for 24 hours from now.

But there is no way the Thunder will be looking past Cleveland in any sense of the word, as this could easily end up being the game of the night in the NBA. Given the close point spread oddsmakers have put out there, you'd have to suspect they'd fall in line with that line of thinking as well. However, the point spread is not something I'm looking at for this game tonight.

Tonight's total of 222 had to open up where it has because of the 272 points scored in the first meeting, and we could very well see it climb as the day goes on. Whether that ends up being the case remains to be seen, but even at this number I do see some value in making a play here, and it might not be the side you expect.

For one, there is no chance we see 270+ points from these two teams again for a variety of reasons. Cleveland's roster overhaul was made in large part to improve their atrocious defense, and through one game we've already seen results.

The Cavs held Boston to just 40.4% shooting from the floor in that win on Sunday, and only three Celtics reached double-digits in scoring. It was just the third time since Christmas Day (21 games) that the Cavs held an opponent to under 100 points, and many reports out of Cleveland suggest the new additions were a huge breath of fresh air for LeBron and company in Cleveland.

The Cavs now feel like they are built to succeed on both ends of the floor (plenty of shooters surround LeBron on offense and built better defensively) and it will be interesting to see how they gel over these final two months of the regular season. Boston and OKC are built in a similar fashion, so shutting down the Thunder tonight is a great next step to take in terms of growing your defensive success if you are the Cavs.

Oklahoma City may have won a shootout with the Cavs last month, but with fewer defensive liabilities to attack this time around (no Isaiah Thomas, Kevin Love, Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade etc), the Thunder aren't probably looking into getting into a game that reaches the 120's again.

Offensively, the Thunder won't mind their chances in that style of game, but even though their defensive play has started to slide a bit of late (now rank 6th in NBA with 102.7 points allowed/game), they'll want to trust their cohesiveness on that end of the floor tonight against the Cavs.

Cleveland's still trying to figure things out on that end of the floor, and while they did a good job of holding Boston down on Sunday, the Celtics aren't exactly known as being an offensive explosion type team.

If the Thunder want to sweep the season series with Cleveland, they'll need their defense to step up and limit Cleveland's fast-break opportunities as well as guard the three-point line. If OKC can do that, then any number in the 220's is going to be hard to reach tonight.

OKC is a perfect 5-0 to the 'under' this year when they've been given a total of 220 or higher by oddsmakers, and they are on a 0-5 O/U run themselves after scoring 100+ in their last outing.

OKC is also 0-4 O/U when facing an opponent that put up 100+ in their last game, so look for tonight's game to truly be one of those ones where the first to 100 probably wins.

Cleveland is slowly going to start piling up some 'under' results with this new-look roster focused on defense they've got, and I want to make sure I cash a few tickets before the numbers are adjusted too much by the oddsmakers.


Best Bet: Under 222

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Odds to win the Super Bowl next season:

5-1— New England Patriots

7-1— Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles

12-1— Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers

16-1— New Orleans Saints

18-1— Atlanta Falcons

20-1— Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams


**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) I came down to the casino floor Monday to go to the sports book here at the Westgate, and 3/4 of the casino floor is empty, including the carpet. They’re tearing up the old carpet and laying new carpet— they moved out all the slot machines and pushed the gaming tables over by the theater— it just looks weird. I’m guessing everything will be back in place by the weekend.

12) Auburn is an 8.5-point favorite over Kentucky tonight; when these teams met LY, Kentucky was a 24-point favorite. Bruce Pearl has to get lot of votes for national Coach of the Year.

11) Over the last six seasons, Kentucky has been a road underdog in ten SEC games; would you be surprised to know that they’re 1-8-1 against the spread in those games?

10) Georgetown 87, Butler 83— 11-point underdog Hoyas are 5-9 in the Big East after playing the easiest pre-conference schedule in the country. When Patrick Ewing pulled his team out of the PK80 tournament in November, it was assumed that the talent there was so awful that they didn’t want to get clobbered early in Ewing’s first season as a head coach.

Georgetown’s kids play very hard and fact is, they’re better than most people thought they would be. Moving on, recruiting will be a huge question for Ewing, since he’s never done it before.

9) Persistence is important in sports and in life. Golfer Ted Potter Jr won the Pebble Beach tournament Sunday and earned $1,506,517 for his second career win.

When Potter was first starting out as a pro golfer, he entered 24 events on the web.com Tour, and he missed the cut in all 24 tournaments. Can you imagine how awful that must have been, not to mention how expensive? But Potter stuck it out, and now he is a 2-time Tour winner.

8) Pepperdine fired basketball coach Marty Wilson; in seven years in Malibu, the Waves are 42-76 in WCC games under Wilson, 1-13 this year. Pepperdine went 10-8 in league two and also three years ago, but then they fell off the cliff.

This means that in a league dominated by Gonzaga/St Mary’s, with BYU a steady third, LMU coach Mike Dunlap is the 4th-longest tenured coach in the WCC and he is 21-47 in WCC games. Five of the ten WCC teams have fired their coach in the last three years- Pacific’s coach retired.

7) Looks like the Los Angeles Angels will use a 6-man pitching rotation, which is what teams in Japan do (teams generally have Monday off in Japan). Halos spent a ton of money when they signed Shohei Ohtani, and he is used to pitching once a week. This will be an interesting thing to follow— if it works for them, you know more teams will do it.

6) Isaiah Thomas is in his 7th year in the NBA and he is already on his fifth team; what does that tell you? He is a career 19 ppg scorer. I’m guessing he may not be America’s best teammate.

5) Arizona Cardinals gave GM Steve Keim a 4-year contract extension; now he has to get together with his new coach and figure out who the Cardinals’ QB will be going forward.

4) Nebraska 70, Maryland 66— Cornhuskers have 20 wins for the first time since 1993.

3) Rhode Island 85, Richmond 67— Rams won their 16th straight game, but EC Matthews hurt his left knee and was dragged off the court. URI seemed hopeful that the injury isn’t serious- they went 4-2 when Matthews broke his wrist earlier this season.

2) What in God’s name is former major league pitcher Esteban Loaiza thinking? The guy made over $43M in his playing career and now he gets busted with 44 pounds of cocaine, which is worth $500,000? Hard to have any sympathy for the guy.

1) If you want someone else to hold your money for the next 50 weeks, you can bet Super Bowl LIII today; AFC is a 1-point favorite, with a total of 52. Game is in Atlanta’s domed stadium.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, February 14

Pistons won three of last four games with Atlanta; over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Hawks are 3-1 vs spread in last four visits to Detroit. Atlanta split its last six games; they’re 10-5 in last 15 games as road underdogs. Four of their last six games stayed under the total. Detroit lost its last three games; they’re 2-6 in last eight games as home favorites. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.

Home side won last six Miami-Philly games; Heat are 2-3 vs spread in last five games in this building. Three of last four series games went over. Miami lost its last four road games and six of last seven overall; they’re 8-3 in last 11 games as road underdogs. Three of their last four games went over total. 76ers won their last four games, all at home; they covered their last nine games as home favorites. Five of their last six games stayed under.

Charlotte won its last nine games with Orlando (8-1 vs spread); they covered last three visits to Orlando, all of which went over total. Hornets lost their last four games; they’re 4-1 vs spread as road favorites. Five of their last seven games went over. Orlando is 4-3 in its last seven games overall; they’re 6-2 in last eight games as home underdogs. Three of their last four games went under the total.

Pacers won their last six games with Brooklyn; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five games in this arena. Seven of last ten series games went over the total. Indiana won six of its last eight games; they’re 5-2 as road favorites. Four of their last six games went over total. Brooklyn lost nine of its last ten games; they’re 7-4-1 in last 12 games as home underdogs. Three of their last four games went over.

Knicks lost their last seven games with Washington; six of last eight series games went over the total. Wizards covered two of last three visits to Manhattan. Washington won six of its last eight games; they covered four of last five games as road favorites. Three of their last four games went over total. New York lost its last seven games; they’re 7-7 as home underdogs. Eight of their last nine games stayed under.

Raptors won their last four games with the Bulls; they’re 1-4 vs spread in their last five visits to Chicago. Nine of last ten series games went over the total. Toronto won its last six games; they’re 9-8 as road favorites, 4-4 if they played night before. Over is 8-1 in their last nine road games. Chicago lost eight of its last ten games; they’re 9-5 in last 14 games as home underdogs. Seven of their last nine games stayed under.

Rockets won their last six games with Sacramento; over is 6-4 in last ten series games. Kings are 1-4 vs spread in last five visits to Houston. Sacramento lost four of its last six games; they’re 6-3 in last nine games as road underdogs, 4-3 vs spread on road if they played night before. Houston won its last nine games; they’re 3-7 in last ten games as home favorites. Four of their last five games went over.

Clippers won six of their last nine games with the Celtics; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five visits here (over 3-2). Clippers won six of their last eight games; they’re 8-3 in last 11 games as underdogs on road. LA’s last eight games stayed under total. Boston lost three of their last four games; they’re 2-7 in last nine games as home favorites. Under is 3-2 in their last five home games.

Lakers lost three of last four games with New Orleans; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Bourbon Street. Three of last four series games stayed under. Los Angeles won four of their last five games; they’re 3-5 in last eight games as road underdogs. Four of their last five games went under total. New Orleans split its last six games; they’re 1-7 in last eight games as home faves. Under is 6-4 in their last ten games.

Thunder won their last five games with Memphis (4-1 vs spread); they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six games played here. Seven of last nine series games went over. Oklahoma City lost six of its last eight games; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four road games, 5-5 if they played night before. Memphis lost its last six games; they’re 8-2 vs spread in last ten home games. Three of their last four games stayed under.

Jazz won their last ten games (8-2 vs spread); they’re 2-7 vs spread in last nine games as home favorites. Six of their last eight games went over. Utah won eight of last nine games with Phoenix; under is 5-3 in last eight series games. Suns are 1-2-1 vs spread in last four visits here. Phoenix lost its last six games; they’re 3-6 in last nine games as road underdogs. Four of their last six games went over.

Golden State won its last ten games with Portland (5-5 vs spread); they’re 3-1 vs spread in last four visits to Oregon, three of which went over. Warriors won/covered their last three games; they’re 5-8 vs spread in last 13 road games. Four of their last six games stayed under the total. Trailblazers lost four of their last six games; they’re 2-2 as home underdogs. Three of their last four home games went over.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Betting Road Map: The Suns are a trainwreck heading into the break
Al McMordie

The All-Star Break is upon us, and the trade deadline last week certainly injected some drama into this season. The Cavaliers were the main culprit, as GM Koby Altman completely re-made the Cavs' roster. In the short term, at least, the moves have paid dividends and Cleveland served notice, with its 121-99 blowout of Boston, that reports of its demise were premature.

Let's take a look at this upcoming, abbreviated week.

Spread Watch

The Phoenix Suns are 18-40 straight-up, and 26-31-1 against the spread this season and they've dropped their last six games SU and their last four ATS.

Even worse: two of their three worst defeats have come in their last three games. San Antonio pounded them by 48 on February 7 and then Golden State won by 46 this past Monday. That loss was made even more ignominious by the fact that Golden State's Steve Kerr decided to not even coach his team for that game (Kerr let his players coach themselves), a fact that really rankled the Suns' staff. But, perhaps, that embarrassing, blowout loss will serve as "rock-bottom" for this Suns team.

This week, they'll travel to Salt Lake City for their final game before the All-Star Break. And I actually like them catching double-digits from the red-hot Jazz, who have won 10 in a row. And that's because rested road teams off losses by 40 plus points have gone 37-19-2 ATS since 1990. Take the Suns on Wednesday.

Total Watch

The hottest team in the league are Quin Snyder's Utah Jazz, who have won 10 straight games after Monday's comeback win vs. San Antonio. The primary reason for Utah's success has been on the offensive end, as they've averaged 112 points during their win streak (they had averaged just 101.5 prior to the start of the streak).

Not surprisingly, the Jazz have gone Over the total in six of their last eight games.

Will Utah's offense continue to roll? It's possible, given that the Jazz will face the defensively-challenged Suns (the league's worst defensive team) before the All-Star Break, and then take on Portland, at home, immediately after the break. Utah put up 129 points on the Suns earlier in February, and also toasted Portland for 112 and 115 points in their two previous meetings this season - and all of those games did go Over the total.

I especially like the Jazz/Blazers game to be relatively high scoring, as 14 of the last 21 meetings between these two clubs have gone Over the total.

Injury Watch

The New York Knicks suffered their worst nightmare when Kristaps Porzingis tore his ACL in his left knee against the Milwaukee Bucks on February 6. Porzingis was averaging 22.7 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game so his worth to a Knicks team largely bereft of talent cannot be overstated.

The Knicks went on to lose that game to Milwaukee, 103-89, and have lost every game since (both SU and ATS). Currently, the Knicks are on a seven-game losing streak, and have dropped five in a row ATS.

This week, the Knicks will host Washington on Valentine's Day, before resuming play after the break, on the road, against the Magic. And while it's certainly true that New York has struggled vs. Washington (0-7 SU; 1-6 ATS since 2016), teams like the Wizards, who are off a win and playing their last game before the All-Star Break on the road, have been poor vs. opponents off back to back losses. Since 1990, such road teams have gone 37% ATS.

Schedule Watch

The Portland Trail Blazers will surely come out with a vengeance on Wednesday vs. the Golden State Warriors.

Not only will the Blazers want to bounce back from their 19-point home loss to Utah, but they'll also want to snap their 11-game losing streak to Golden State (which encompassed a 4-0 playoff series sweep last season).
And, for technical support, we will note that winning teams, off a loss, have cashed 69.5 percent at home, if they had lost their previous 10 meetings against their opponent! We actually saw this situation occur back in November when the Knicks upset the Clippers, 107-85, as a two-point home underdog, to snap their 10-game losing streak to Los Angeles. Look for Portland to pull off a similar upset vs. Golden State. Take the Blazers plus the points.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, February 14

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ATLANTA (18 - 40) at DETROIT (27 - 29) - 2/14/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 6-4 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 5-5 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (30 - 27) at PHILADELPHIA (29 - 25) - 2/14/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 80-55 ATS (+19.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MIAMI is 77-60 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 49-32 ATS (+13.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 144-109 ATS (+24.1 Units) in February games since 1996.
MIAMI is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 39-25 ATS (+11.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 5-3 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 5-3 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (23 - 33) at ORLANDO (18 - 38) - 2/14/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 21-31 ATS (-13.1 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 59-77 ATS (-25.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
ORLANDO is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 8-2 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 9-1 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (32 - 25) at BROOKLYN (19 - 39) - 2/14/2018, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 33-24 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
BROOKLYN is 28-18 ATS (+8.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
BROOKLYN is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BROOKLYN is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BROOKLYN is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 7-4 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 9-2 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (32 - 24) at NEW YORK (23 - 35) - 2/14/2018, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
WASHINGTON is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in February games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 6-2 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 7-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (40 - 16) at CHICAGO (20 - 36) - 2/14/2018, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 8-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 6-4 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (18 - 38) at HOUSTON (43 - 13) - 2/14/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points this season.
HOUSTON is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season.
HOUSTON is 49-68 ATS (-25.8 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 6-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 8-1 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (29 - 26) at BOSTON (40 - 18) - 2/14/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 93-124 ATS (-43.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 212-268 ATS (-82.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
BOSTON is 33-22 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 3-2 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 3-2 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (23 - 32) at NEW ORLEANS (30 - 26) - 2/14/2018, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-4 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (32 - 26) at MEMPHIS (18 - 37) - 2/14/2018, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-3 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-2 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (18 - 40) at UTAH (29 - 28) - 2/14/2018, 9:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 5-3 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 8-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (44 - 13) at PORTLAND (31 - 26) - 2/14/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 11-7 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 16-2 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
13 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
February 14, 2018

Game of the Night: Warriors (-5 ½, 225 ½) at Blazers – 10:35 PM EST

Golden State (44-13 SU, 26-30-1 ATS) crushed Phoenix on Monday night, 129-83 as head coach Steve Kerr took a backseat and let his players coach in that victory. It really didn’t matter who drew up the plays as the Warriors shot 58% from the floor, led by Stephen Curry’s 22 points, while Golden State outscored Phoenix in the second half, 67-38 to easily cash as 16-point favorites. The defending champions finished the first half of the season with a 22-7 home record, as the Warriors lost a total of nine regular season games at Oracle Arena the previous three seasons combined.

Portland (31-26 SU, 27-25-5 ATS) had its nine-game home winning streak snapped in Sunday’s 115-96 setback to Utah, while falling to 2-4 ATS the last six contests. The Jazz outscored the Blazers in the third quarter, 38-19 to take firm control in spite of Damian Lillard posting a 39-point effort. The Portland All-Star guard compiled 89 points in the two-game stretch against Sacramento last Friday and Utah on Sunday, as the Blazers dropped to 4-2 ATS this season when Lillard scores at least 35 points.

The Warriors swept the Blazers out of the first round of the playoffs last season, while going 8-0 against Portland in 2016-17. Golden State continued its domination of Portland with a 111-104 home victory in mid-December, but failed to cash as 8 ½-point favorites. The Warriors are riding an 11-game winning streak against the Blazers dating back to May 2016 as the last regular season win in the series by Portland came in February 2016 at the Moda Center, 137-105 as Lillard blew up for 51 points.

Not So Lucky

Following a terrific start to the season, the Celtics (40-18 SU, 34-22-2 ATS) aren’t playing their best basketball heading into the All-Star break. Boston has lost three of its past four games, including consecutive home setbacks to Indiana and Cleveland in which they failed to bust the 100-point mark. In Sunday’s 22-point defeat to the Cavaliers, the Celtics shot 10-of-38 from three-point range, including a 1-of-7 effort from Kyrie Irving.

The Clippers (29-26 SU, 30-24-1 ATS) invade TD Garden as L.A. continues its seven-game road trip. Since losing at home to Boston on January 24, the Clippers have won six of their past eight contests, including a 114-101 triumph at Brooklyn on Monday as 4 ½-point favorites.

L.A. is currently on an eight-game UNDER run, including five straight UNDERS registered away from Staples Center. The Clippers have responded well as a road underdog with rest by going 5-2 ATS in the last seven in this situation, including recent victories at Golden State, New Orleans, and Detroit.

Detroit Doldrums

Last week, the Pistons (27-29 SU, 26-28-2 ATS) pulled off their fifth straight win on their homestand and were undefeated with Blake Griffin in the lineup. Fast-forward seven days and Detroit has lost three consecutive games, while giving up 118 points in recent defeats to Atlanta and New Orleans. Since Griffin joined the lineup, the Pistons are 1-6 ATS as all seven games Detroit has been listed in the favorite role.

Detroit catches Atlanta for the second time in four days after getting tripped up at Philips Arena on Sunday, 118-115 as 3 ½-point favorites. The Hawks (18-40 SU, 30-26-2 ATS) became the first Eastern Conference team to suffer 40 losses on the season following Tuesday’s 97-92 setback at Milwaukee. Atlanta rallied in the fourth quarter to cash as 7 ½-point underdogs, but the Hawks have won just twice in 12 tries with no rest this season.

Cool it Now

The Heat (30-27 SU, 27-27-3 ATS) have hit the skids of late by losing six of the past seven games, including Tuesday’s 115-112 defeat at Toronto. Miami managed a cover as eight-point underdogs, but the Heat have allowed at least 109 points in four of the last five contests. Seven players scored in double-figures for Miami, including 10 points and 11 rebounds off the bench for recently acquired Dwyane Wade.

Miami heads to Philadelphia for the second time this month, looking to avenge a 103-97 loss as four-point ‘dogs on February 2. The 76ers (29-25 SU, 31-22-1 ATS) extended their home winning streak to 10 in Monday’s 108-92 triumph over the short-handed Knicks as 11 ½-point favorites.

The Sixers received balanced scoring with six players posting double-figures, but the most impressive stat line came from reserve guard T.J. McConnell, who recorded a triple-double with 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 11 assists. During Philadelphia’s 10-game home winning streak, the 76ers have covered all 10 times, while limiting the last three opponents to 98 points or fewer.

Keep Up the Pace

One of the top stories from the first half of the season has been the resurgence of the Pacers (32-25 SU, 31-26 ATS), who weren’t expected to make the playoffs after Paul George was dealt to the Thunder in the offseason. Indiana has compiled an 8-3 record since late January, which includes six victories at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Pacers have been a productive road favorite this season at 4-2 SU/ATS as they venture to Brooklyn looking for the four-game season sweep of the Nets.

Brooklyn (19-39 SU, 33-25 ATS) limp into Wednesday’s action with losses in six consecutive games and a 1-10 record in the past 11 trips to the court. The Nets erased a 28-point deficit and forced overtime before falling short in Saturday’s loss to New Orleans, while dropping a 13-point decision to the Clippers on Monday. Brooklyn has lost six straight meetings with Indiana, but covered as 9 ½-point ‘dogs in a 123-119 overtime road loss in late December.

Chalky Taste

The Rockets (43-13 SU, 28-27-1 ATS) grabbed their ninth consecutive victory in Tuesday’s 126-108 triumph at Minnesota as 3 ½-point favorites. Houston improved to 10-2 ATS in the last 12 opportunities as a single-digit favorite, but Mike D’Antoni’s team has slumped to a dreadful 1-10-1 ATS mark in the previous 12 games when laying at least 10 points. The Rockets will be in the latter position on Wednesday as they welcome in the Kings.

Sacramento (18-38 SU, 24-29-3 ATS) remains in the Lone Star State after holding off Dallas on Tuesday, 114-109 as seven-point underdogs. The Kings moved to 6-1 ATS in the last seven games on the highway, while cashing the OVER in six of the past eight contests overall. Sacramento has dropped six consecutive meetings with Houston, including a 105-100 setback at Golden 1 Center as seven-point underdogs in mid-October.

Mardi Party

The first half of the season for the Pelicans (30-26 SU, 28-27-1 ATS) has seen plenty of ups and downs, as New Orleans looks to finish on a high-note with a three-game winning streak. The Pelicans bounced back from a 1-5 stretch to pick up road victories at Brooklyn and Detroit, capped off by a 15-point rout of the Pistons on Monday. New Orleans will try to fix a recent 1-7 ATS run in the role of a home favorite as the Pelicans host the Lakers.

Los Angeles (23-32 SU, 29-26 ATS) had its four-game hot streak snapped in Saturday’s 130-123 loss at Dallas as three-point underdogs. Isaiah Thomas posted 22 points in his Lakers’ debut, as Los Angeles shot nearly 55% from the floor and knocked down 16 three-pointers in the defeat. In spite of the setback, the Lakers own a solid 12-5 ATS record the last 17 games, even though eight of those covers came at home.

[StarDust Bum]

Cavs' demise, quick rise, captivate eyes

All eyes were on the new-look Cavaliers on Sunday afternoon, so it’s no surprise that we got such drastic odds adjustments from Westgate, which opened last week with season-worst (7/4) odds on Cleveland as the favorite to get out of the Eastern Conference and now have them at even money.

Following their embarrassing 148-124 loss to Oklahoma City on Jan. 20, the Cavs remained 4/5 to get out of the Eastern Conference, but that seems like months ago, not weeks.

Consider that Kevin Love left that game with an illness that was then questioned by Isaiah Thomas, among others, in a wild team meeting. That came a week before he was lost for at least eight weeks with a broken hand, which led to double-digit losses to the Pistons, Rockets and Magic. Thomas spouted off again, throwing coaches under the bus and questioning the effort level of his teammates.

It became obvious that the key piece acquired to pair with LeBron James for a 2018 championship run that Kyrie Irving desperately wanted out of wasn’t going to work out.

They needed to reboot. Cavs 3.0 was necessary, because 2.0, the first post-Kyrie option, was packed with viruses.

Trades breathe life into Cleveland's chances

Despite beating Minnesota thanks to a heroic effort from LeBron, the Cavs took to the surgical knife at the trade deadline, opting for massive surgery. Make your gross liposuction comparisons at your leisure, but I’ll just say that there certainly was an infusion of youth and energy delivered through three separate deals that rid the team of five players and two picks and delivered four new guys and a second-rounder in the middle of next decade.

The new look was then put on display for a national television audience to kill their first of a parade of NFL-less Sundays that awaits the next few months, creating something compelling to keep an eye on. That the unveiling came in Boston, against a Celtics team that Irving has taken off and run with, added to the drama. Favored by 4, the Celtics were run out of the building and were fortunate fans had to wait til post-game to honor Paul Pierce’s jersey retirement or the country would’ve seen an early mass exodus after an embarrassing performance.

Guards George Hill, Rodney Hood and Jordan Clarkson shined in playing to their strengths, while forward Larry Nance, Jr. created opportunities on the boards and made life difficult with his athleticism on his pick-and-roll defense. James dominated again and Cleveland won 121-99, leading those who hadn’t yet given up on the Cavs – or who took my previous advice in this space not to despair and to get on the LeBron train while the getting was good – to rejoice.

Thomas, who ended up with the Lakers, and Jae Crowder, now a member of the Jazz, had strong debuts themselves, so maybe a change of scenery was what was best for all parties involved. Derrick Rose was cut and must find a new home, while Dwyane Wade was welcomed back with open arms in the place that’s always been home, returning to Miami. Channing Frye will fit in alongside good friend Luke Walton in L.A., while Iman Shumpert will look to finally get healthy in Sacramento.

The fact is only Shumpert, if he got back to 100 percent, could’ve really excelled as a member of this Cavs squad. The rest of those guys didn’t fit in, either on the court or off it, or in some cases in both ways. Cleveland came out of the trade deadline a far superior team.

Over the next few weeks, since this honeymoon period started out with a memorable perfect first impression, we’ll see cracks in this new foundation. You’ll undoubtedly hear that these odds, correcting Cleveland’s fall from heavy favorite to substantial favorite, shouldn’t have moved so drastically on the strength of defeating slumping Boston on the brink of an All-Star break most teams can’t wait to get to.

While valid, my opinion is that a team with James on board was likely going to weather the storm. If you took advantage of the details to get in on a future bet that’s going to generate more of a return on your investment than the current rate of even money (still a great value), then I’m glad you listened.

No team in the East deserved to be mentioned in the same sentence with the Cavs as even a conference co-favorite since James is still at the height of his powers.

Toronto looks to have improved significantly due to better depth and a more polished DeMar DeRozan, but you still can’t take them seriously to dethrone the Cavs even though they opened the week with the conference’s top winning percentage. We’ve seen that story play out before.

Boston appears to be hitting the wall. Washington is currently without John Wall. The Pacers are a nice story, but still lacking in experience.

Now that the Cavs have surrounded James with some new toys, they should take off. I don’t expect Cleveland to catch either Toronto or Boston for homecourt edge with under 30 games remaining, but I’d also doubt that we’ll see them finish below No. 3 even with Love unlikely to return until April.

Being able to rely on Hill to set the tone defensively against opposing point guards, in addition to a fearless sparkplug like Clarkson off the bench means the platoon set to replace what the Cavs originally envisioned taking Irving’s place was just upgraded. Thomas was always going to be too significant a liability on defense, a problem that will hamper his desire to earn a huge payday this offseason.

Hood, a streaky shooter, but gifted scorer, has a chance to become a household name if he settles in. Nance won’t get paid the way Tristan Thompson did, but he’ll be able to get his in this league playing a similar glue guy role. With Love set to be back weeks before the playoffs begin and J.R. Smith, Kyle Korver, Jeff Green, Thompson and rookie Cedi Osman all carving out roles, there’s too much depth to fade Cleveland even without homecourt advantage in the East semis and conference finals.

Less than one month ago, I wrote the following regarding the Cavs: “Keep Cleveland’s struggles in perspective. It’s unlikely the doom and gloom will last too much longer. LeBron has found a way to reach the NBA Finals every season this decade since 2011. He’s still plenty dominant enough to get there again. All he needs is just a little more help.”

He definitely got it.

[StarDust Bum]

Dinero Tracker - Feb. 14
February 14, 2018
By Tony Mejia

Read the Dinero Tracker's mission statement here
Last night's ATS Records
NBA: 2-4 | NCAA BB: 14-6

Tuesday's picks were on point, enough that I went to bed believing I "should've" gone 20-0 in college and 4-2 in NBA. Texas A&M came up just short at Mizzou, Western Michigan controversially melted down at Bowling Green and each of my four missed totals would've come in with a break or two. Of those games I mentioned, only the Broncos' loss and 'Huskers/Terps total wouldn't have covered in a teaser. I'll take that consistency on a 20-pick night. In NBA, we had two blowout losers, two losses that could've gone our way and a pair of winners that could've been losers. Both sets of guarantees came in after failing on Monday, making for a very profitable day. Here's hoping I can continue to spread the love on Valentine's Day. The NBA lock is now 19-for-29 (65.5%) since Jan. 11. Here's Tuesday's recap, complete with some of the highlights (and lowlights):

WEDNESDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Hornets -5

The Magic have been a tremendous team against the spread despite all their injury issues, covering the number in 12 of their last 15. They've been an underdog in all but one of those games and are 12-2 catching points, but both of those setbacks have come at home. With Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon ruled out until after All-Star break, look for Orlando to come up short against a Hornets team that it has lost two twice in Charlotte already this season. Dwight Howard is making his debut in Orlando with his latest team and has experienced a resurgence in his first season there. With Kemba Walker in a groove and set to face off against one of his first backcourt mates, D.J. Augustin, we're going to lay the points. Ride Charlotte.

TUESDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Michigan State -10

The Gophers sat key wings Amir Coffey and Dupree McBrayer the other night and just haven't been healthy enough to trust that they can turn a season that it now seems they're just attempting to soldier through into anything more than a series of learning experiences. They'll be plenty that winds up redeeming the next few weeks, but Richard Pitino isn't going to be able to do much with Minnesota against the Big Ten's best. That certainly would include the Spartans. The Gophers have lost to Purdue by 34 and Ohio State by 18 at home and comes of a 24-point setback at Indiana. Lay the points here and ride Miles Bridges-led Michigan State.

Result: The Spartans hit their first 6 3-point attempts, so the freebie improved to 4-1-1 over the last six rather easily. The Gophers made one push to start the second half, but were ultimately overwhelmed in an 87-57 loss. Freshman Jaren Jackson, Jr. scored a season-best 27 points, looking like a lottery lock since he's 6-11 and draining 3-pointers like a young Rasheed Wallace.

TUESDAY'S LOCK

The pick: Nuggets -5.5

This is a tough situation for the Kawhi Leonard-less Spurs to find themselves in, playing the second of a back-to-back after already ruling out LaMarcus Aldridge and playing Dejounte Murray and Tony Parker coming off injuries. Look for the fresher Nuggets to utilize their depth and altitude advantage to pull off a lopsided victory. Lay the points and ride Denver, guaranteed.

Result: Murray and Parker each played well, helping the Spurs put together a strong start and had the visitors up by three entering the fourth quarter. Fortunately, expectations that the short-handed Spurs would run out of gas came to fruition since Will Barton, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray teamed with Nikola Jokic to help put together a 30-19 run in the fourth, winning 117-109 and covering the number. San Antonio losing Manu Ginobili to a third-quarter foot sprain proved too much to overcome.

TUESDAY'S OTHER LOCK

The pick: Virginia/Miami UNDER 121

The Hurricanes are in for a shock to the system given the opposition that they've run into of late. Decision-making is going to be critical for Jim Larranaga's squad to not be blown out in Coral Gables, so I think you'll see this wind up a low-possession game where Miami tests its own defensive mettle to try a firmer grip on the identity Larranaga wants them to adopt. With Bruce Brown out, UM is down a great athlete and elite scorer, so they have to be tougher. Ride the under, guaranteed.

Result: This game made us very happy, since it went down as expected with Virginia winning 59-50. The 'Canes really struggled to adjust to the pack-line early and scored just 16 first-half points. Larranaga got exactly what he wanted to see from his team in the second half as Miami showed some backbone, actually winning the final 20 minutes 34-32. After closing within 10 down the stretch, the U also spared us having to sweat out an unnecessary game extension since it elected not to play the foul game with the outcome having already been decided due to their first-half scoring droughts.

TOTAL RECALL

The pick: Kansas/Iowa State OVER 152

The Cyclones will surprisingly get Nick Weiler-Babb back into the mix despite nursing a knee injury that was threatening to end his season as recently as late last week. The Jayhawks are likely to keep pushing tempo since no result is safe on the road, so look for this one to end up high-scoring. Ride the over.

Result: Despite the Cyclones struggling through a 3-for-16 effort from 3-point range and getting overwhelmed in the paint by the more athletic Jayhawks, they predictably hung around at Hilton Coliseum and even covered in an 83-77 loss. For our purposes, Iowa State's poor defense helped get the Jayhawks into a rhythm, which ensured we'd clear the total since they could never shake their hosts and had to remain aggressive. Weiler-Babb gave the Cyclones a boost with 14 points and five assists. Nice to see him back.

CARDIAC ATTACK

The pick: Rutgers +3.5, RU/Northwestern UNDER 123

The Wildcats have struggled to score effectively, so they're in for a tough time at the RAC as they try to continue a rescue attempt on a disappointing season that's gone off the rails. The Scarlet Knights have Mike Williams and Eugene Omoruyi back and grinding, so expect the home team to show up. Ride Rutgers plus the points and back the under for the in-game parlay.

Result: We were obviously hoping this game would end in regulation as we came down the stretch. Rutgers was down 56-50, but Corey Sanders got fouled on a 3-pointer, made all of his shots and then had the ball back in his hands with five seconds left, draining a long 3 to tie things. Northwestern could've won the game on Gavin Skelly's layup attempt at the buzzer, but didn't go up as naturally as he should have on a nice out-of-bounds play call from Chris Collins. Rutgers won OT 11-2 to snap a seven-game losing streak in its 67-58 win, but that was a bucket too rich for our under call.

SWING AND A MISS

The pick: Raptors -7

The Raptors have won each of their last five games by double-digits, winning by at least 15 points. The Heat are excited to have Dwyane Wade back, but the had lost five straight before outlasting the Bucks in a playoff atmosphere due to Wade's return last Friday and should struggle on the road since they haven't played outside Miami since Feb. 3. Ride Toronto and lay the points.

Result: Toronto took a 112-96 lead on a Kyle Lowry 3-pointer with 4:42 left, so this one looked great until it didn't, when the Heat ran off a 13-0 run to pull within a single possession with 56.9 seconds remaining. Lowry and DeMar DeRozan then each missed free-throws in the final minute despite usually being incredibly reliable in late-game situations, and DeRozan was trapped into a turnover that led to Wayne Ellington's cover-clinching 3-pointer with 6.8 left. After CJ Miles wasted one last free-throw attempt, Toronto survived Miami when Josh Richardson's last-ditch effort was missed. There's no way this final should've ever been as close as 115-112, so I'm still salty about the details.

PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE

The pick: Texas Tech -7

Chris Beard's Red Raiders have dominated the Big 12 over the last few weeks, carrying a six-game winning streak into this showdown with the Sooners, who they lost to in Norman on Jan. 9. The teams have gone in opposite directions over the past few weeks, and with Tech coming in undefeated at home and looking to take apart the team that's scored the most points against them in league play. Lay the points and ride Texas Tech.  

Result: I held back on doubling up here with the total, so there's regret over that since my numbers liked the over. Still, watching the Red Raiders clamp down to pull away from Oklahoma in the closing minutes was definitely satisfying. Tech's defense harrassed Trae Young into 0-for-9 3-point shooting and benefited from a crucial turnover in the closing stages when he lost a ball out of bounds. We ultimately picked up the cover in the 88-78 win when he passed on one last look from beyond the arc and settled for a runner that would've still left us with the cover if he knocked it down. He missed. Not his night. It was much better for us.