The Bum's 2017 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News Thru Playoffs !

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Tuesday, February 6

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NBA Game of the Day: Thunder at Warriors betting preview and odds
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Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors (-10, 230)

Head coach Steve Kerr called the Golden State Warriors "mentally fried" even before they went into Denver and suffered a rare loss in which they led entering the fourth quarter on Saturday. The Warriors will hope two days off and a return home gives them a boost when they host the struggling Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday.

Golden State was enduring the second night of a back-to-back and its third road game in five days on Saturday, when it was outscored 38-25 in the fourth quarter and suffered a 115-108 loss at the Nuggets. "We've got to make sure we're not building bad habits, and we're starting to," Kerr told reporters after the latest setback. "You can't win at the highest level and, game on the line, we're just not locking in." The Thunder and point guard Russell Westbrook are always highly motivated to play the Warriors and ex-teammate Kevin Durant, but they are looking just as weary after a 108-104 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday marked their fourth consecutive defeat. "It's fun, man. Adversity is great," Westbrook told reporters. "Me personally, I love adversity. It gives you an opportunity to bring your teammates together, bring everybody together and look forward to positive things. Throughout the season, there's going to be a lot of ups and downs, but we never flinch. That's one thing about this organization, about our team: We never flinch based on what's going on. We always stay together."

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as big 10.5-point home favorites and as of Tuesday morning that number was down to -10. The total hit betting boards at 227.5 and has been bumped up to 230.

INJURY REPORT:

Thunder - SG A. Roberson (Out For Season, Knee).

Warriors - PF D. West (Probable, Personal), PF J. Bell (Mid Feb, Ankle).

POWER RANKINGS: Thunder (-6.9) - Warriors (-13.5) + home court (-3) = Warriors -9.6

MATCHUP CHART:



ABOUT THE THUNDER (30-24 SU, 22-32 ATS, 24-30 O/U): Oklahoma City is 1-4 since losing shooting guard Andre Roberson -- the team's best perimeter defender -- to a season-ending knee injury. The Thunder allowed each of their last three opponents to make at least 13 3-pointers and are about to go up against a Golden State squad that leads the NBA in 3-point percentage (.392). "I'm most concerned about defensively, to be honest, is our 3-point defense," Thunder coach Billy Donovan told reporters after Sunday's loss. "I'm really, really concerned about that. You want to protect the deep paint, and you don't want to give up layups, but when the ball gets kicked back out, we have got to have more urgency to run people off the line. That's where Andre Roberson is great, maybe the best I've ever seen, is being able to close down on shooters and get them to bounce it and then also guard them."

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (41-12 SU, 23-29-1 ATS, 27-26 O/U): Golden State was just 8-of-31 from beyond the arc at Denver and the tired legs showed up on the defensive end in the fourth quarter as well. "The whole fourth quarter was rough," Stephen Curry told reporters. "We had some 50-50 balls go the other way, giving extra possessions. ... We just didn't make those timely plays to keep that separation. On a back-to-back, those 12 minutes, it's going to be tough to get through, and we didn't do enough to win." Durant was the bright spot in the loss, scoring 31 points on 12-of-16 shooting to improve to 24-of-33 from the floor in two games this month.

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Warriors are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
* Under is 9-1 in Thunder last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 home games.
* Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Golden State.

CONSENSUS: Contest users are backing the Oklahoma City Thunder in this matchup, with 59 percent of pointspread picks on the road underdog. When it comes to the total, 60 percent of wagers are on the Over.

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Tuesday
February 6, 2018

Super Bowl Sunday was all about the underdogs as the Philadelphia Eagles captured the title and that momentum has carried over to the hardwood.

The NBA saw the ‘dogs go 4-2 against the spread on Sunday even though they only managed to post a 2-4 straight up record. The favorites did manage to strike back on Monday with a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS record, plus we saw the ‘over’ go 4-3 after a 5-1 ‘under’ mark the day before.

We’ve got eight games on tap for Tuesday and below is my quick handicap.

Game of the Night – Oklahoma City at Golden State (TNT, 10:35 p.m. ET)

The marquee matchup on Tuesday takes place from Oracle Arena as Golden State (41-12 SU, 23-29-1 ATS) and Oklahoma City (30-24 SU, 21-32-1 ATS) square off. The Warriors opened as 10-point home favorites while the total is listed at 230.

Based on current form and tendencies that we’ve seen this season, the right side looks to be laying the points but the defending champs haven’t been a solid investment at home.

Oklahoma City enters this game with a four-game losing streak, which includes a 108-104 loss to the L.A. Lakers on Sunday as a 9 ½-point home favorite. The losses to teams below .500 (14-10) have piled up this season and continue to make Oklahoma City a tough team to figure out. Prior to the skid, the Thunder had won eight straight and they even helped bettors with a 6-2 ATS mark during that run.

Snapping the streak on Tuesday won’t be easy at Golden State, who enters this game off a 115-108 setback at Denver on Saturday as a 5 ½-point favorite. The Warriors went 1-2 on their recent three-game road trip and that included an embarrassing loss at Utah, 129-109.

Golden State head coach Steve Kerrr tried to summarize his team’s recent play. “"It's painful obviously that our guys are mentally fried right now," Kerr said. "So it's a good job to just get a win. Our guys are tired mentally, emotionally. So we just got to fight through, get to the break and rejuvenate."

Kerr and his squad should have confidence tonight since the Warriors have gone 11-0 off a loss this season and the team is 6-0 when facing a team for the first time after losing the previous meeting.

For our purposes, the Warriors have gone 6-5 ATS in the 11 wins and that might not bode much confidence. However, the ‘over’ could be a solid look tonight. The high side has gone 8-3 in Golden State’s games off a loss and those results are clearly attributed to the Warriors offense, which is averaging 126 points per game.

Outside of the Rockets and Spurs, teams in the Western Conference have struggled on the road and that includes Oklahoma City (11-15 SU, 10-16 ATS). In 15 road games versus teams from the West, OKC has gone 4-11 SU and 3-12 ATS.

Since Kevin Durant left Oklahoma City for Golden State, the Warriors have gone 3-1 both SU and ATS in the four meetings but the Thunder won the lone encounter this season – a 108-91 victory on Nov. 22 as a 5 ½-point home underdog. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1.

This will be the largest amount of points that Oklahoma City has received this season. Golden State has gone 19-5 SU and 10-13-1 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite.

Good Luck!

I learned my lesson taking Cleveland on Saturday as a four-point home underdog to Houston and it was embarrassed 120-88 at home. Including that loss, the Cavaliers have gone 4-8 in their last 12 games and they’ve burnt bettors with a 2-10 ATS mark during this span.

That’s been the theme of the season for the Cavs, who are a league worst 14-36-1 ATS. We’ve seen finish anywhere from 15-18 games below .500 at the betting counter over a regular season but to be 22 games below is eye-opening considering they have the best player in the league in LeBron James.

Despite those facts, Cleveland has been installed as a seven-point road favorite over Orlando (16-36 SU, 24-28 ATS). The Magic are coming off a surprising 111-109 win at Miami last night as an 8 ½-point road ‘dog, cashing money-line tickets as high as plus-325. Including that win, the Magic are now 9-2 ATS in their last 11 despite going 4-7 SU.

Before you run to the counter and pound Orlando, make a note that Frank Vogel’s team hasn’t won two straight since Nov. 10 and it has gone 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games off a victory.

While that could have you leaning Cleveland, it’s hard to justify taking a team that has gone 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite. This will be the fourth and final meeting between the pair this season with Cleveland taking two of the first three but Orlando has earned covers in all of the games. Make a note that the Magic won’t have Aaron Gordon (hip) for the fifth consecutive game.

John Who?

The Wizards (31-22 SU, 25-28 ATS) have won and covered five straight games since All-Star point guard John Wall went down with a knee injury. The winning run includes a 111-102 road win over Indiana last night as a 3 ½-point favorite.

The oddsmakers expect the streak to end on Tuesday night with Washington visiting Philadelphia (25-25 SU, 27-23 ATS). The 76ers opened as six-point home favorites and while the fatigue factor could come into play, bettors should note that the Wizards have gone 5-2 when playing on no rest this season.

One of the losses did come at Philadelphia on Nov. 29 but Washington managed to cover as a 7 ½-point underdog in the 118-113 decision. Including that outcome, the home team has now won five straight in this series while the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 during this span.

Philadelphia has been a tad shaky of late, going 1-4 both SU and ATS in its last five but all of the losses occurred on the road. In true home games, the 76ers have won and covered six straight at the Wells Fargo Center and the offense has averaged 112.8 PPG in those games.

With the “City of Brotherly Love” buzzing after Sunday’s Super Bowl victory by the Eagles, you wonder if that momentum carries over to the hardwood.

Under Streaks

Even though the Bucks (26-25) and Knicks (27-26) have slightly leaned to the ‘over’ this season, both clubs bring solid ‘under’ runs into Tuesday matchup from Madison Square Garden. Milwaukee has watched its last eight go to the low side while New York is on a 5-0 ‘under’ run and this includes last Friday’s meeting between the pair.

In that game, Milwaukee earned a 92-90 home win over New York but failed to cover as a 4 ½-point favorite. This game was on an ‘over’ pace at halftime with the score knotted 55 apiece but the pair closed the game with 38 and 34-point quarters.

Milwaukee’s offense has been banged up lately and the team won’t have guards Malcom Brogdon (knee) or Matthew Dellavedova (ankle) for Tuesday.

You can make a case for New York to win this game based on its home record (16-10 SU, 16-10 ATS) but the team is in a serious funk right now, especially on offense. Including the 90-point effort versus the Bucks, New York is averaging 95.4 PPG and that number is inflated because it posted 107 and 111 against the Suns and Nets, two of the worst defensive teams in the league.

Keep an Eye On

The Rockets (-10) visit Brooklyn tonight and they’ve gone 4-2 SU in their last six games as double-digit favorites, more importantly they’re 0-6 ATS. Houston also bring a 10-1 ‘under’ run into this game and the Nets have been leaning low lately as well (8-2 L10).

Rare to see Atlanta (-2) listed as a favorite but that’s the case Tuesday when Memphis visits. It’s also rare to see the Hawks win two in a row, something they’ll be trying to do for the third time this season. Off a win, Atlanta is 2-13 this season but it will be facing one of the worst road teams in the Grizzlies (5-19).

The home team has won six of the past eight meetings in the Boston-Toronto series, which includes the first meeting this season from TD Garden as the Celtics escaped with a 95-94 win. The ‘under’ is also on a 6-2 run during this span.

Meanwhile on the West Coast, the Suns and Lakers have watched the visitors win four straight and five of the last six games in their head-to-head encounters. The ‘over’ has been the right side as well, with the high side on a 5-1 run and 12-3 in the previous 15 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

— Tennessee 61, Kentucky 59— Wildcats are 3-5 in their last eight games.

— There are 446 bridges in the city of Pittsburgh. Lot of bridges.

— Thunder 125, Warriors 105— OKC had lost its previous four games.

— Boise St 73, New Mexico 71— Boise outscored Lobos 8-0 over the final 1:46.

— Wednesday is National Signing Day in college football; games in 2021 and 2022 will be won by what happens today.

— Magic 116, Cavaliers 98— Cleveland led by 21 in second quarter. Cavaliers would be #4 seed in the East right now. Thursday 3pm is the NBA trade deadline; I’m just sayin’.


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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

13) Tuesday morning, the Indianapolis Colts announced they hired Josh McDaniels as their new coach. By 8pm Tuesday, McDaniels had backed out of the deal. Go figure.

12) There are reports the Patriots greatly sweetened McDaniels’ contract to keep him in Foxboro; maybe they guaranteed he’d replace Bill Belichick when Belichick retires. Who knows what happened, but the Colts look foolish for now, even if they may be better off in the long run.

If someone isn’t 100% into being your football coach, then YOU DO NOT WANT HIM. Now the Colts have to regroup and take advantage of the opportunity to find a smart football person who really wants to coach the Indianapolis Colts. NFL head coaching jobs are in great demand.

it should be mentioned here that when McDaniels was coach of the Broncos, he drafted Tim Tebow in the first round. If you’re a Colts’ fan, are you really sad about losing this guy?

11) Took the 6:20am flight from Albany to Chicago to Las Vegas Monday morning; was in the airport by 4:30am. Was on the plane at 6am- the flight took off…….at 10:53am. Oy.

It was a bright. sunny morning in Albany Monday; Southwest Airlines claimed it was too windy to take off, and that snow had blown on the one runway they could use, none of which made a hell of a lot of sense. There was maybe a half-inch of snow on the ground. Maybe some air traffic callers called in sick, who knows?

Everything turned out pretty well, other than wasting four hours of my life that could’ve spent with me being asleep. In a bed. There were three empty seats on the Chicago-to-Vegas flight; one of them was the middle seat next to me. Leg room is tremendous!!!

Then I got a $100 voucher Tuesday in an e-mail from Southwest, apologizing for the delay. it was this e-mail that casually mentioned something about air traffic controllers, which made me wonder what was really up.

10) Bad news for the Knicks Tuesday night; Kristaps Porzingis tore his ACL, is out for the year.

9) Ben Simmons is a really good player and the 76ers will probably make the playoffs this year, but could he learn how to shoot? They said Tuesday that of 346 baskets this season, only seven of them came on shots longer than 16 feet. He is 0-10 behind the arc, but only seven baskets in 1,720 minutes longer than 16 feet?

Simmons is also shooting only 56.3% on the foul line.. If he wants to eventually be considered a truly great player, he better get himself in a gym this summer and improve his shooting.

8) Emeka Okafor played nine minutes for the Pelicans Monday night; it was his first NBA action in four years and 296 days, when he was on the Wizards. Okafor is 35 and banked just under $90M in his playing career. Good to see that he worked hard enough to get back in the NBA.

7) Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim got his 200th career win on February 4, 1985 against Seton Hall, the day after current Louisville coach David Padgett was born.

6) Schools are closed in Philadelphia Thursday, because of the Eagles’ victory parade.

5) Think about it, from 2005-08, Doug Pederson was the head football coach at Calvary Baptist Academy in Shreveport, LA. Now he is the head coach of the Super Bowl champs.

4) James Madison postponed basketball games scheduled for Thursday, Saturday over fears of a possible mumps outbreak in the program. One assistant coach had mumps; three other people, including one player, are suspected of having it now.

In case you were wondering: “Mumps is a mild to moderate contagious viral illness spread usually by close or face-to-face contact. Its symptoms can appears from 12 to 25 days after exposure, and those symptoms include body aches, fever and swollen or tender salivary glands.”

3) San Francisco Giants will retire Barry Bonds’ #25 when the Giants host Pittsburgh in August.

2) So much for preseason polls: Auburn was picked 9th, Tennessee 13th in the SEC preseason poll. They’re the top two teams in the league.

1— Sat next to a couple gamblers in the Westgate sportsbook Tuesday night; this is one of my favorite places on earth, where people of all races/creeds sit near each other and bond over their desire to wager money on sports. If only the rest of the world got along so well……..

Anyway, Gambler A was having a bad day. Gambler B, his friend, was trying to pump him up that his current bet, a totals’ bet on the first half of the Michigan-Northwestern game, was going to be a winner. Gambler B’s optimism was annoying Gambler A.

Gambler B: “Hey, I’m just trying to keep things positive.”
Gambler A: “I’m not big on all this positive shit.”

Alrighty then; as soon as he says that, kid on Northwestern hit a 3-pointer at the end of the half to make Gambler A’s bet a loser. they left right after that; Gambler A won later on with his Nebraska bet; hopefully he was more cheerful then.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, February 7

Nets are 3-5 in last eight games with the Pistons; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to the Motor City. Last four series games stayed under the total. Brooklyn lost seven of its last eight games; they’re 16-8 as road underdogs, 3-4 vs spread on road if they played night before. Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Detroit won its last four games; they’re 2-8 in last 10 games as home favorites. Five of their last six games went over.

Houston/Miami split their last ten games; Rockets are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to South Beach. Five of last seven series games stayed under. Houston won nine of last ten games; they’re 15-9 as road favorites, but 1-5 vs spread if they played night before. Nine of their last 11 games stayed under the total. Miami lost its last four games, all by 6 or fewer points; they’re 2-4 as home underdogs. Six of their last eight games stayed under.

Pacers won eight of last ten games with New Orleans; they covered four of last five visits to Bourbon Street. Under is 8-2 in last ten series games. Indiana won six of its last nine games; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four road games. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Pelicans lost four of their last five games; they’re 1-5 vs spread in last six home games. Three of last four New Orleans games went over.

Cleveland lost by 16 in Orlando last nite after leading by 21; Cavaliers are 4-7 in last 11 games- they’re 0-2 as home underdogs. Last three Cleveland games stayed under. Cavaliers won six of last seven games with Minnesota; over is 7-1 in last eight series games. Wolves are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Ohio. Minnesota split its last ten games; they’re 7-5-1 as road favorites (0-3 in last three). Four of their last five games stayed under the total.

Grizzlies won four of last five games with Utah; five of last seven series games stayed under. Jazz are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Tennessee. Utah won its last six games; they’re 3-5 as road favorites. Last four Jazz games went over the total. Memphis lost six of its last seven games; they are 5-4 vs spread if they played night before- they’re 6-7 as home underdogs. Over is 6-3 in their last nine games.

Spurs won nine of last ten games with the Suns; they’re 2-3 vs spread in their last five visits to Arizona. Last three series games stayed under the total. San Antonio split their last ten games; they’re 7-10-1 vs spread as road favorites. Five of their last seven games went over. Phoenix lost eight of its last nine games; they’re 8-15 as home underdogs, 4-6 if they played night before. Over is 3-2 in their last five games.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Wednesday, February 7

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Trend Report
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BROOKLYN @ DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Brooklyn


Houston @ Miami
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Houston
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston

Minnesota @ Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota

Utah @ Memphis
Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing at home against Utah
Memphis is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home

Indiana @ New Orleans
Indiana is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing New Orleans
Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 14 of New Orleans's last 17 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana

San Antonio @ Phoenix
San Antonio is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing Phoenix
San Antonio is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Phoenix's last 14 games when playing San Antonio

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, February 8

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BROOKLYN (19 - 36) at DETROIT (26 - 26) - 2/7/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 32-22 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
BROOKLYN is 27-16 ATS (+9.4 Units) as an underdog this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 6-3 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 5-4 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (39 - 13) at MIAMI (29 - 25) - 2/7/2018, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 32-49 ATS (-21.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 75-59 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 48-31 ATS (+13.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 142-108 ATS (+23.2 Units) in February games since 1996.
MIAMI is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 43-28 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) in home games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (30 - 25) at NEW ORLEANS (28 - 25) - 2/7/2018, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (34 - 22) at CLEVELAND (30 - 22) - 2/7/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 53-81 ATS (-36.1 Units) after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 59-41 ATS (+13.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 14-37 ATS (-26.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
CLEVELAND is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in non-conference games this season.
CLEVELAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
CLEVELAND is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 4-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (25 - 28) at MEMPHIS (18 - 35) - 2/7/2018, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 4-3 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 4-3 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (34 - 21) at PHOENIX (18 - 37) - 2/7/2018, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 7-3 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 9-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
February 7, 2018

Game of the Night: Timberwolves (-4, 221) at Cavaliers – 8:00 PM EST

The latest chapter in Cleveland’s recent meltdown was written in Tuesday’s 116-98 setback at Orlando. The Cavaliers (30-22 SU, 14-37-1 ATS) built a 16-point halftime edge, but were outscored 65-31 in the second half by the Magic, while Cleveland was limited to nine points in the final quarter. Following last night’s loss, the Cavs fell to 2-13 ATS in the last 15 games and a staggering 0-12 ATS in the past 12 contests away from Quicken Loans Arena.

Cleveland doesn’t have time to worry about Tuesday’s horrible second half performance as the Cavaliers host the well-rested Timberwolves (34-22 SU, 28-26-2 ATS). Minnesota has been off since routing New Orleans on Saturday, 118-107 to pull off the four-game season sweep of the Pelicans. Jimmy Butler led the Wolves with 30 points as Minnesota improved to 12-0 in its previous 12 contests at Target Center, while covering for the 11th time in the last 15 tries in the favorite role.

Minnesota faced Cleveland last month at home and demolished the Cavaliers from the opening tip. The Wolves grabbed a 32-18 advantage after one quarter and cruised to a 127-99 blowout of the Cavaliers as short home ‘dogs. Minnesota limited LeBron James to 10 points, while the Wolves scorched the Cavs by shooting 52% from the floor.

The Cavaliers have lost eight consecutive nationally televised games since Christmas, as tonight’s contest is airing on ESPN. Cleveland has slightly profited this season in the underdog role by going 5-4 ATS, but has lost in each of its last two opportunities as a home ‘dog to Houston and Golden State.

Not so Hot

The Heat (29-25 SU, 25-26-3 ATS) have cooled off significantly stringing together seven straight wins in January. Miami has dropped its past four games with three of those defeats coming by four points or less. The most recent setback came in Monday’s 111-109 home loss to Orlando, the second defeat this month as a home favorite of at least 8 ½ points. The Heat are flipped to the home underdog role against Houston as Miami looks to avenge a 99-90 loss at Toyota Center on January 22 as 11-point ‘dogs.

The Rockets (39-13 SU, 25-26-1 ATS) travel to south Florida with no rest after picking up their fifth straight win last night, 123-113 at Brooklyn. Although Houston failed to cash as 11-point favorites, James Harden paced the Rockets with 36 points and Chris Paul chipped in 25 as they moved within one game of Golden State for the best record in the league. Mike D’Antoni’s team has struggled to cover on the second of a back-to-back set this season by compiling a 1-5 ATS record, which includes a pair of double-digit losses on the road.

Hitting a High Note

Although they still sit in last place of the competitive Northwest division, the Jazz (25-28 SU, 29-24 ATS) are playing their best basketball of the season. Utah moved its winning streak to six following Monday’s 133-109 blowout of New Orleans as the Jazz have now eclipsed the 120-point mark in four consecutive games. Quin Snyder’s club shot lights out from long distance, hitting 8-of-9 three-pointers to begin the game and ultimately knocking down 14-of-21 treys. The Jazz have won seven of their last nine road contests, including a 3-1 SU/ATS mark as a favorite.

The next test for Utah is a struggling Memphis (18-35 SU, 23-28-2 ATS) squad, who finished its road swing at 0-4 after an ugly 108-82 loss at Atlanta on Tuesday. The Grizzlies covered in the first two losses at Indiana and Detroit, but couldn’t muster more than 86 points in their last two setbacks at Toronto and Atlanta. Memphis is facing Utah for the first time this season after capturing three of four matchups last season, while the Grizzlies have put together a 5-5 ATS mark in their last 10 opportunities as a home underdog.

Blaking a Difference

There were question marks regarding the Pistons (26-26 SU, 26-24-2 ATS) taking on Blake Griffin’s large contract in a trade from the Clippers in late January. However, Detroit hasn’t lost since acquiring the All-Star forward by going 4-0, including a 3-0 mark with Griffin in the lineup. The latest victory came in Monday’s 111-91 blowout of the struggling Blazers, the first cover as a favorite since the trade in three opportunities.

Detroit welcomes in Brooklyn (19-36 SU, 32-23 ATS), as the Nets tripped up the Pistons last month at Little Caesars Arena, 101-100 as six-point underdogs. That victory was the last one on the road for Brooklyn as the Nets are riding a four-game skid away from Barclays Center, while allowing at least 109 points in each of their past four on the highway. Brooklyn owns a 4-4 ATS record on the road with no rest as all four covers have come as an underdog of 9 ½ points or more.

Pacer Rebound?

Indiana (30-25 SU, 29-26 ATS) was down a few key parts in Monday’s 111-102 home loss to Washington as leading scorer Victor Oladipo and fellow guard Darren Collison were sidelined. Collison is out for two-to-three weeks with a knee injury, while Oladipo hopes to return to the lineup tonight. The Pacers have done a solid job of bouncing back off a loss by going 5-1 since the start of January in this situation. Indiana travels to New Orleans looking to avenge a 117-112 home defeat to the Pelicans suffered in November.

The Pelicans (28-25 SU, 26-26-1 ATS) have lost four of their last five games, while allowing 133 points in a 24-point home loss to the Jazz on Monday. New Orleans has yielded at least 112 points in five of the past six games, while hitting the OVER in six of the last eight home contests. The Pelicans have been a solid team to back off consecutive losses this season by compiling a 7-1 SU/ATS record in this situation.

Spurs’ Struggles

San Antonio (34-21 SU, 28-25-2 ATS) hits the road for six games as the Spurs won’t return to the AT&T Center until February 28. Playing at home has normally been an automatic win, but the Spurs lost three times on their recent five-game homestand, including back-to-back losses to the Rockets and Jazz. San Antonio will try to turn around its luck at Phoenix, as the Spurs seek the four-game season sweep of the Suns, while the UNDER has hit in the first three matchups.

Phoenix (18-37 SU, 26-27-2 ATS) stumbles home following a 112-93 road loss to the Lakers last night, the eighth defeat in the past nine games. Leading scorer Devin Booker is listed as doubtful with a hip injury, but the Suns have profited as a double-digit underdog by compiling an 11-6 ATS mark when receiving at least 10 points.

[StarDust Bum]

Dinero Tracker - Feb. 7
February 7, 2018

Last night's ATS Records
NBA: 4-3-1 | NCAA BB: 15-8

A fantastic start in college hoops -- at one point 8-1 before a few tight games went the other way - was capped by Boise State's riveting comeback to salvage my college guarantee. There were a few tough losses in the late games, but I'll take the continuation of a strong February run (82-45, 64.6%, +3252) that has featured only one losing day and a 55-27 run since that ill-fated Feb. 2. Four of six college in-game parlays (Penn/Princeton, Xavier/Butler, Davidson/St. Joseph's, Buffalo/CMU) came in. Success in the pros wasn't as great as I hoped it would be for numerous reasons, all detailed below. My NBA guarantee pushed the 230 I got in at 6 AM ET, but the line moved to 231 by the afternoon, so it was a disappointing final 50 seconds as the Thunder and Warriors wrapped up garbage time. The NBA lock is still 17-for-23 (73.9%) since Jan. 11 and riding a run of seven straight cashes after an unfortunate push. Here's Tuesday's recap, complete with some of the highlights (and lowlights):

TUESDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Villanova -16.5

Wildcats head coach Jay Wright will certainly have an easier time getting his top-ranked team's attention thanks to Duke's weekend assist. The Blue Devils managed to lose to St. John's 81-77 at Madison Square Garden, looking like they couldn't be bothered to defend for an entire afternoon. The Red Storm are still 0-11 in the Big East but now carry a target on their back as a giant-killer that beat one of the nation's most talented teams. A 'Nova squad that surrendered 37 points to Shamorie Ponds in their Jan. 13 78-71 win at the Garden knows exactly what it could have on their hands at home if they allow him to find a rhythm, so I'd expect a focused effort to prevent this from being even remotely close. Lay the points and ride Villanova.

MONDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Buffalo -5.5

The Bulls bounced back from their first MAC loss, an 82-79 setback last Tuesday at Kent State, holding off Western Michigan 92-86. Tonight's game will be the first time they'll be back in someone else's arena and looks to be the toughest true road test, on paper, that they've got remaining on their schedule. Central Michigan's up-tempo style should help the visitors get comfortable, so we're laying the points and riding the MAC's top team. Back Buffalo. For the in-game parlay, ride the over.

Result: The Bulls delivered our third straight freebie win and led the entire game, going up 72-54 at Central Michigan after a CJ Massinburg 4-point play. The Chippewas chipped away and actually helped deliver the over by being extremely proficient at the foul game, closing to within six numerous times. Wes Clark delivered the cover with perfect free-throw shooting in the closing stages of an 88-82 win.

MONDAY'S LOCK

The pick: Boise State +1

The Broncos need to win to stay just behind Nevada for the Mountain West lead, so it will be interesting to see how they handle a great road atmosphere at the Pit in Albuquerque. The Lobos have won seven straight home games, which includes a victory over San Diego State in league play. This is a revenge game since they fell in Boise 90-62, but Chandler Hutchison is playing too well to fade and I think Leon Rice's squad holds up against the press in a hostile setting. Take the point and ride Boise State, guaranteed.

Result: This was bananas. New Mexico played an excellent game, building up a 13-point edge, but you never give up on a game until the clock hits :00. The Broncos didn't, capping a run holding the Lobos without a field goal for the final 7:33 when they were fortunate Anthony Mathis missed a great look at a layup to win 73-71. The comeback featured a 19-7 run to close it and a pair of steals that were converted into buckets by Hutchison, who combined with fellow senior Chris Sengfelder to score 47 points on 18-for-27 shooting. They added 20 boards and scored nine of Boise's last 10. We then had to sit through a skirmish because New Mexico's Joe Furtsinger was too forceful trying to frantically foul BSU's Marcus Dickinson, striking him near his throat. Benches cleared and video of the incident had to be reviewed before the game was finally called. Chicken dinner!

LOCK THAT DIDN'T CLICK

The pick: Oklahoma City/Golden State OVER 230

The Thunder held the Warriors to 91 points in a lopsided 17-point win when these Western Conference powers squared off in Oklahoma City on Nov. 22. Stopper Andre Roberson played a crucial role in that game and is now unavailable after being lost for the season. Since Jan. 20, they've allowed nearly 112 points per game, the last five of which have come without their stopper. Golden State will have had two days off since looking exhausted in Denver, so expect them to be ready to run. Ride the over (230), guaranteed.

Result: There's no question I didn't expect Tuesday's events at Oracle to transpire as they did. The first quarter featured a 42-30 Thunder explosion and they took the game by the throat in the second half despite losing Carmelo Anthony to an injury. Still, our only interest was the total, which we jumped on at 230 but had moved to 231-231.5 by tipoff. Countless technical fouls helped get us to where we needed to be as both coaches finally pulled starters to start "garbage time," where we needed reserves who don't typically play to put the ball in the basket. Kyle Singler dusted himself off and did his part for OKC, while JaVale McGee and Kevon Looney scored around the basket to get us to 125-105 with 50 ticks left. Looney went to the line for the and-1, missed, and Singler fumbled OKC's final attempt to score. With one last chance, we were hoping Patrick McCaw would just drive to the rim and make it happen, but he deferred to McGee, who was in the mood to get frisky by trying to take Dakari Johnson off the dribble as if both were 6-2 guards. It looked as awkward as it reads, McGee ended up missing some ugly-looking fadeaway jumper that wasn't close and OKC rebounded and harmlessly dribbled out the clock. Frustrating. Hope you got in early enough to push.

TOTAL RECALL

The pick: Kansas/TCU UNDER 157

The Jayhawks have seen key figures step up over the course of the season, but aren't particularly deep, so the call here is that the pace will be slower than expected. The Horned Frogs haven't let the unfortunate loss of guard Jaylen Fisher derail them, but it should hinder the team here. Kansas is still favored by a little too much over TCU for my taste, but not enough to tempt me into taking points. Ride the under.

Result: This one was never in doubt, so I've hurt my arm patting myself on the back after recognizing that the number looked far too high for the game I expected. My analysis here was dead right since the Jayhawks (-7) wound up pushing when TCU missed a point-blank layup at the buzzer in the 71-64 win. Neither team scored much down the stretch as this became the grind-it-out affair I anticipated. I'd better stop before I dislocate my shoulder.

CARDIAC ATTACK

The pick: Rockets -10.5

After trading Tyler Zeller to Milwaukee, the Nets are committed to playing rookie Jarrett Allen and Jahlil Okafor down the stretch. This won't yield much success against the pick-and-roll. Since the Rockets are going to look to run, get Eric Gordon back and can punish teams with inexperienced defenses like Brooklyn, my expectation here is that we'll see a Rockets rout. Lay the points.

Result: The first quarter ended with the Rockets up 38-31, so this looked great early and then soured significantly. Brooklyn ended up making 16 3-pointers, the same amount that Houston made, and even led 84-80 late in the third before a late surge helped put the favored visitors in position to win going away. A James Harden layup made it 115-99 with 4:24 left, but the Nets scored eight straight, two on a pair of 3-pointers by undrafted ex-Boise State standout James Webb III, who was playing just his sixth NBA game. That set up garbage time intrigue where Harden closed the game out with a 3-pointer with 33 seconds left for the final 123-113 margin, leaving us with an empty feeling as he dribbled the clock out on a 36-point masterpiece that somehow couldn't prevent a Nets' cover.

SWING AND A MISS

The pick: Cavs -6.5

Unless you could pick on the Hornets or Trail Blazers by forcing them to play on a third straight night, the Magic are the team you would choose to play against if you had to win one game tonight, Feb. 6. Not only did Orlando pull off an upset last night, they saw one of their current catalysts, Jonathan Simmons, suffer an ankle sprain. He's currently the player best suited to defend LeBron James and would join Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic, rookie Jonathan Isaac and Terrence Ross on the bench in a suit if he can't play. Coming off an embarrassing nationally televised loss to Houston, the Cavs are going to have no mercy tonight against a Magic rotation likely to feature G-Leaguers Wesley Iwundu and Khem Birch playing major minutes. Ride Cleveland and lay the points.

Result: As excellent as Tuesday night's wagering was as early results started coming in, this became Debbie Downer in all her glory. Think of all the teasers and money-line parlays that slipped away as the Cavs decided that one half of basketball was enough, retiring for the evening after building up a 67-51 halftime lead. How a team led by LeBron James can have such little chemistry that it allowed an Orlando Magic roster missing its two most talented players and fortified by G-leaguers to win the second half 65-31 is one of life's great mysteries. Head coach Tyronn Lue went out sick in the second quarter due to an illness, but that meltdown had little to do with coaching. There won't be a worse loss in the NBA the rest of the way.

PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE

The pick: Davidson -10.5 OVER 145.5

The Hawks have virtually no depth, with James Demery joining Shavar Newkirk in playing all 40 minutes against LaSalle despite a bum ankle. The Wildcats are too talented not to take advantage of a defense that can't afford to really foul, so look for Bob McKillop's team to continue a run that has seen them top 80 in consecutive games, winning by a combined 48 points. Ride Davidson and the over for the in-game parlay.

Result: This one was fun, one of those games you only have to check in on from time to time since it's clearly in cruise control. Peyton Alrdridge scored 29 first-half points, a figure that ranks behind only school legend Stephen Curry's exploits, helping the Wildcats built up a 51-28 edge against St. Joseph's. Phil Martelli lost the rest of his hair watching Davidson shoot 20-for-39 from 3-point range as his Hawks continued a rough stretch in a 91-62 setback.

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 7
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BK at DET 07:00 PM
DET -9.5
O 211.0

HOU at MIA 07:30 PM
HOU -4.5

IND at NO 08:00 PM
NO -3.5
O 219.5

UTA at MEM 08:00 PM
UTA -6.5
U 199.0

MIN at CLE 08:00 PM
MIN -3.5

SA at PHO 10:30 PM
PHO +9.5
U 202.0

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

— Texas A&M 81, Auburn 80— Aggies have an interesting resume for NCAA’s.

— UNLV 86, Nevada 78— Big road win for the Rebels; Nevada’s best player is hurt.

— 3B/1B Todd Frazier gets $17M for two years from the Mets.

— Twins’ P Ervin Santana is out 10-12 weeks after he had a finger operated on.

— 17 college hoop teams have already been ranked in the top 5 this season.

— Agent Bob LaMonte fired Josh McDaniels as a client after Tuesday’s switcheroo; he is also the agent for the Colts’ GM Chris Ballard.


**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) St John’s 79, Villanova 75— Red Storm started out 0-11 in Big East, but in last five days, they beat both Duke/Villanova. Johnnies played only six guys in this game; four of their starters played 37:00+. Villanova was only 8-33 on arc in this game.

12) The NBA has strategically moved All-Star Weekend back until after football ends, to make the most of its exposure, but players are complaining now that the break should be earlier in the season, to give them a much-needed break from the 82-game schedule.

For example, Cleveland has already played 53 of its 81 games, so All-Star break will come after the 2/3 mark of the season. If they move it to January, it will compete with the NFL playoffs.

11) Gave this some thought during my 11-hour plane excursion Monday; If I’m the Eagles, I don’t trade Nick Foles. Carson Wentz is still the starter, but getting rid of Foles seems like a mistake.

10) An NBA game got rained out Wednesday night; seriously. Roof was leaking in the arena in New Orleans, so Pacers-Pelicans will play some other day. There was actually a puddle near one of the foul lines, which makes it difficult to play.

9) Speaking of the Pacers, they’re 30-19 when Victor Oladipo plays, 0-6 when he does not.

8) Turns out Indianapolis Colts already signed three assistant coaches to contracts before they got left at the altar by Josh McDaniels— one of the coaches is the defensive coordinator, so they almost have to hire a coach with offensive leanings, since the DC is already in place.

7) Former manager Joe Girardi has surfaced as a studio analyst on MLB Network, which is a good idea; hopefully he’ll do some games. Girardi is a smart guy; we can learn from him.

6) There is a actually a service where you pay people to walk your dog. If you have to pay someone to walk your dog…….

a) You’re too damn busy
b) You shouldn’t have a dog
c) You’re extremely lazy. Even I would walk my dog, if I had one.

5) Westgate Hotel added a poker room near their great sportsbook; I was walking down that way the other night and some guy bustles ahead of me like it was a race or something. Turns out he wanted a seat at a poker table; I wanted a hamburger at the restaurant next door.

4) There have never been four QB’s taken in the first 10 picks of an NFL Draft; that surprised me, figured it would have happened at least once.

3) Cavaliers 140, Timberwolves 138 OT– Everyone at ESPN can take a deep breath; the Cavaliers won a game. You listen to their 60-minute pregame show and I think they mentioned Minnesota once the whole hour.

2) Another thing I was wondering about on the plane Monday: what would the average score of an NHL game be if neither team used a goalie, and they just played 6-on-6?

1— NBA trade deadline is 3:00 this afternoon; will be interesting to see what happens.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, February 8

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ATLANTA (17 - 37) at ORLANDO (17 - 36) - 2/8/2018, 7:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 6-4 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 5-5 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (23 - 32) at TORONTO (37 - 16) - 2/8/2018, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 5-5 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 8-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (39 - 16) at WASHINGTON (31 - 23) - 2/8/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 141-106 ATS (+24.4 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
BOSTON is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
WASHINGTON is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
WASHINGTON is 401-468 ATS (-113.8 Units) in home games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 11-5 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-6 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (23 - 30) at PORTLAND (29 - 25) - 2/8/2018, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 56-72 ATS (-23.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as an underdog this season.
CHARLOTTE is 23-43 ATS (-24.3 Units) in road games against Northwest division opponents since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 174-217 ATS (-64.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 27-43 ATS (-20.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 3-2 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (31 - 24) at LA LAKERS (22 - 31) - 2/8/2018, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-3 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (17 - 37) at GOLDEN STATE (41 - 13) - 2/8/2018, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 6-4 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, February 8

Orlando is 5-3 in its last eight games with Atlanta; home side won last four series games. Hawks are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Orlando- under is 3-1 in last four series games played here. Atlanta is 3-2 in its last five games; they’re 14-12 vs spread on road. Under is 6-4 in their last 10 games. Orlando won three of its last four games; they’re 1-7 vs spread as home favorites. Four of their last six games went over.

New York lost its last four games; this is their first game without injured star Porzingis. NY is 7-5 in last 12 games as road underdogs. Knicks’ last six games stayed under. Toronto won five of its last six games; they’re 4-1 vs spread in last five home games. Under is 5-3 in Raptors’ last eight games. Knicks lost eight of last nine games with Toronto; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Canada. Four of last five series games stayed under.

Home side won nine of last ten Celtic-Wizard games; Boston is 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to Washington. Six of last eight series games went over total. Celtics won four of their last five games; they’re 9-2 as road underdogs. Three of their last four games stayed under. Wizards won five of their last six games; they’re 7-12 vs spread as home favorites. Seven of their last ten games went over the total.

Portland won seven of its last ten games with Charlotte; last five series games stayed under total. Hornets are 1-4 vs spread in their last five visits to Oregon. Charlotte won three of its last four games; they’re 1-5-1 in last seven games as road underdogs. Last four Charlotte games went over the total. Portland lost its last three games; they’re 6-2 in last eight games as home favorites. Four of their last six games stayed under.

Thunder won eight of last ten games with the Lakers; they’re 2-2 vs spread in last four series tilts in Staples Center. Seven of last ten series games stayed under. Oklahoma City lost four of its last five games, but won by 20 in Oakland Tuesday; they’re 4-11 in last 15 games as home favorites. Four of their last five games stayed under. Lakers won seven of their last nine games; they’re 4-0 vs spread in last four tries as home dogs. Last three LA games stayed under.

Golden State won its last nine games with Dallas, six of which went over the total. Mavericks are 2-3 vs spread in their last five visits to Oakland. Dallas lost eight of its last ten games; they’re 9-1 vs spread in last 10 games as road underdogs. Under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Warriors lost three of their last four games; they’re 1-4-2 vs spread in last seven home games. Seven of their last ten games stayed under.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Thursday, February 8

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Trend Report
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ATLANTA @ ORLANDO
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
Atlanta is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Orlando
Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games at home

NEW YORK @ TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing New York

BOSTON @ WASHINGTON
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

CHARLOTTE @ PORTLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games when playing Charlotte
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte

OKLAHOMA CITY @ LA LAKERS
Oklahoma City is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing LA Lakers
Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

DALLAS @ GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games
Dallas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Thursday
February 7, 2018

Straight up and Against the Spread

Bottom of the Barrel

The two worst teams in the Eastern Conference will meet from the Amway Center on Thursday as Orlando (17-36 SU, 25-28 ATS) and Atlanta (17-37 SU, 28-24-2 ATS) square off. The Magic have been the more disappointing of the two this season due to higher expectations but both have achieved solid results at the betting counter recently than on the hardwood.

For this matchup, Orlando will be looking to win its third straight game for just the second time this season. The Magic just knocked off the Heat and Cavaliers as underdogs and will now be favorites (-1 ½) over the Hawks, a role that club has struggled in this season. When laying points at home, Orlando has gone 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS. Despite that fact, it’s hard to dismiss that Orlando is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games despite dealing with key injuries. Aaron Gordon (hip) has missed the last six game for the Magic and is ‘questionable’ for Thursday.

Atlanta enters this game off back-to-back victories as well but unlike Orlando, it has never won three in a row this season. When given that opportunity before, the Hawks have gone 0-2 and both losses were double digits.

These teams have split their first two meetings this season with the home team winning each contest.

Eastern Test

Boston (39-16 SU, 33-20-2 ATS) and Washington (31-23 SU, 25-29 ATS) will tip-off Thursday’s TNT action from Capital One Arena in what's expected to be a a tight contest. The Celtics opened as short road favorites (-1) at BookMaker.eu but the early money put the Wizards into the ‘chalk’ role (-1 ½).

Washington had its five-game winning streak snapped Tuesday as the club dropped a 115-102 decision at Philadelphia. The Wizards have been playing without All-Star John Wall and the team has actually looked better. Prior to Wall going down with a knee injury, Washington was mired in a 1-4 skid.

The Wizards got the best of Boston on Christmas, earning a 111-103 win as four-point road favorites. The decision was surprising because when the pair met in last year’s Eastern Conference semifinals, the home team went 7-0 in that series with Boston advancing 4-3 over Washington.

The Celtics are also off a loss, a 111-91 setback at Toronto on Tuesday. Point guard Kyrie Irving returned to the court after missing the previous three games, which were all victories for Boston.

Washington hasn’t been as dominant at home (17-9 SU, 10-16 ATS) this season but it has won four of its last five. What’s impressive about the Wizards is that they haven’t lost more three or more games in a row this season but they have dropped back-to-back decisions eight times. Boston does own one of the top road marks (18-8 SU, 17-9 ATS) in the league and it hasn’t surrendered two straight setbacks on the road this season.

Win or lose for the Wizards, this video alone tells me why I can’t trust this team again in the postseason. Seems like a real strange dynamic going on in D.C. and maybe Mavs backup point guard J.J. Barea was right about Wall. Make a note that Wall had 21 points and 14 assists in the holiday matchup against Boston.

Chutes and Ladders

The Knicks upset the Raptors 108-100 as 4 ½-point home underdogs on Nov. 22 but it’s hard to see New York pulling off another shocker after what transpired in Tuesday’s 103-89 home loss to Milwaukee.

In the setback, New York lost All-Star Kristaps Porzingis to a season-ending ACL injury. Including the defeat to Milwaukee, the Knicks have lost four in a row and seven of their last nine games.

While New York is going backwards, Toronto continues to rise. The Raptors won and covered their third straight game on Tuesday as it throttled Boston by 20 points (111-91) as a five-point home favorite. The club is only one game behind the Celtics in the Eastern Conference, which has had the bookmakers adjust the future odds on Toronto from 7/1 to 7/2 to win the East.

Prior to the aforementioned loss to the Knicks, Toronto has won nine straight in this series and they covered six of those games. No overnight line was posted but the Raptors opened -15 and they’ve gone an eye-opening 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in that role this season.

Total bettors should note that New York is on a 6-0 'under' run and losing Porzingiz (22.7 PPG) could keep that low-side streak rolling along. The total is listed at 210.

Over or Under

There is only one non-conference game on tap Thursday as Charlotte (23-30 SU, 22-27-4 ATS) visits Portland (29-25 SU, 25-26-3 ATS). The Trail Blazers opened as four-point home favorites and the number was pushed down to -3 at most shops. It’s hard to make a case for Portland, who is returning home from a three-game road trip that watched them go 0-3 both SU and ATS. Plus, they head right back on the road tomorrow to visit Sacramento which is never a tough spot. The Blazers haven’t been great at home (15-10 SU, 10-14-1 ATS) compared to previous seasons but Charlotte (8-16 SU, 8-12-4 ATS) hasn’t shown much spirit as a visitor.

Rather than focus on the side, the total jumps out to me and the opener of 214 seemed high. It dropped to 213 ½ quickly before bouncing back up to 214 ½ on Thursday morning. The opening number makes me believe the ‘over’ is worth a look even though the ‘under’ has cashed in five straight in this series and Portland has been one of the best ‘under’ teams (32-22) this season.

Why go high? Along with the respecting the opinion of the oddsmakers, Charlotte has been seriously chucking from distance (3-pointers) in its last four games (32.7) and the confidence from the outside has led to 118.8 points per game and four easy ‘over’ tickets. Along with the good comes the bad and that’s the Charlotte defense, which is allowing 116.8 PPG during this span. Portland hasn’t been in good rhythm offensively lately but a poor defense and home crowd should help cure that on Thursday.

Seeking Revenge

Oklahoma City (31-24 SU, 22-32-1 ATS) snapped a four-game losing skid on Tuesday with an emphatic 125-105 road win over Golden State as a 10-point road underdog. The Thunder face the possibility of a letdown spot Thursday but it will be seeking to avenge a recent 108-104 home loss to the L.A. Lakers (22-31 SU, 28-25 ATS) on Super Bowl Sunday.

Despite that loss, this series has been one-sided as it gets with Oklahoma City taking 16 of the last 20 against Los Angeles and it’s posted a respectable 13-7 ATS mark in those games. Also, the Thunder's record includes a 5-1 run in the last six trips to the Staples Center.

Unfortunately for Lavar Ball and his fearless predictions, this Lakers team won’t be making the playoffs but they have shown some flashes lately. Los Angeles has gone 7-2 both SU and ATS in its last nine games and it enters this game with seven straight wins on its homecourt.

The youth for the Lakers has often shown this season and they definitely fold when facing adversity, which is proven in their ATS numbers at home. The club has been an underdog 19 times in L.A. and they’ve gone 8-11 SU and 10-9 ATS, which tells you the point-spread has only mattered in two games.

If you’re looking to back Los Angeles, a money-line (+125) play could be a better option. Lastly, teams that have defeated Golden State this season have gone 8-4 in their following game so the letdown angle could be thrown out but one of those losses came from OKC.

Three Straight?

The late-night tip from the Bay Area between the Mavericks (17-37 SU, 27-26-1 ATS) and Warriors (41-13 SU, 32-30-1 ATS) looks like a ‘pass’ game on paper. No overnight number was sent out with Harrison Barnes (ankle) and Kevin Durant (hand) both listed as ‘questionable’ for Dallas and Golden State respectively. Even if Durant sits, the Warriors will be laying double digits and they’ll also be looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak this season. Golden State opened -13 on Thursday morning and the Warriors dropped to 12 ½. The money-line has Golden State listed -1000 (Bet $100 to win $10) with the take-back on Dallas listed at plus-650 (Bet $100 to win $650).

Including Tuesday’s embarrassing home loss (125-105) to OKC, the Warriors are 1-3 in their last four games. Golden State is now 11-1 SU and 6-6 ATS off a loss but suffering three losses in a row is very rare. It’s only happened twice in the last three seasons and one of those skids occurred while blowing a 3-1 lead to the Cavaliers in the 2015-16 NBA Finals.

GSW is 19-6 SU and 10-14-1 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite while Dallas is 1-6 both SU and ATS when catching 10-plus points. The Warriors have won nine straight against the Mavericks in this series which includes all three meetings this season. They’ve gone 6-3 ATS during this span.

[StarDust Bum]

Dinero Tracker - Feb. 8
February 8, 2018

Read the Dinero Tracker's mission statement here
Last night's ATS Records
NBA: 4-1-1 | NCAA BB: 9-14-1

Wednesday was one we’ll all have no trouble storing away in the memory bank. There are always going to be rough nights, so an ugly college hoops performance isn’t what I’m referring to. For the third time in the last calendar year, three Top 10 teams lost at home on the same night, something that hadn’t happened since 1977 before it happened last season on Feb. 4. Mix in a historic regular-season NBA game that has to rank among the most entertaining over the past few years since it featured a league-record 40 3-pointers made and Feb. 7 is going to be hard to top as far as being the wildest night of 2018. Pelicans-Pacers got canceled because of a roof leak. The upset bug was biting all night long, even catching Hawai’i at home against a UC-Riverside team that hadn’t won a Big West game all season. An intense few hours on a night where lines were razor sharp and made it feel like March. Hopefully far better results will be in store in a month’s time, because I got lit up in college for the first time this month and was too often on the receiving end of bad breaks given all the wild twists. Four college losses came by one point or fewer. The lone NBA loss, which came on my guarantee to snap a seven-game winning streak, was cemented on a rare LeBron James’ buzzer-beater that’s going to be pretty unforgettable given the Cavs’ dire state. It was an incredible night, both riveting and frustrating. Of the three Top 10 teams that were beat outright, I was only on Texas A&M against Auburn. The NBA lock is now 17-for-24 (70.8%) since Jan. 11. Here's Wednesday's recap, complete with some of the highlights (and lowlights):

THURSDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Oregon -5
The Ducks have slipped back to 5-5 in Pac-12 play in a season where the conference is undeniably down, so Dana Altman's team badly needs to get on track over the next three weeks. Look for an increased sense of urgency to fuel Oregon here since its a big swing game considering it will be favored against Washington State this weekend and then can make significant closing statements in a four-game stretch against the league's top teams, USC, UCLA, Arizona State and Arizona. The Ducks can still rescue their season. It just has to start tonight against the sizzling Huskies, who have pulled off four straight league wins, three of them upsets. Look for Elijah Brown and Payton Pritchard to have big games and lay the points, riding Oregon.

WEDNESDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Villanova -16.5
Wildcats head coach Jay Wright will certainly have an easier time getting his top-ranked team's attention thanks to Duke's weekend assist. The Blue Devils managed to lose to St. John's 81-77 at Madison Square Garden, looking they couldn't be bothered to defend for an entire afternoon. The Red Storm are still 0-11 in the Big East but now carry a target on their back as a team that beat one of the nation's most talented teams. A 'Nova squad that surrendered 37 points to Shamorie Ponds in their Jan. 13 78-71 win at the Garden knows exactly what it could have on their hands at home if they allow him to find a rhythm, so I'd expect a focused effort to prevent this from being even remotely close. Lay the points and ride Villanova.

Result: Our three-game freebie win streak ended with a spectacular failure, as Villanova got beat at home 79-75. I didn't expect Eric Paschall to sit, but there's no excuse for this loss. They settled for too many jumpers when the shot, reliable all season, stopped falling for a change. St. John's outright win paid +1500 if you chose to ignore my opinion, since I'd have given the Red Storm absolutely no shot to pull this off. It was St. John's first win over a top-ranked foe since 1985, back when Chris Mullin was playing. Now he's coaching, suddenly doing so remarkably well.

WEDNESDAY'S LOCK

The pick: Minnesota -2.5
The Cavs took their struggles to a new low in last night's crippling defeat at the hands of the Magic in Orlando. Blowing a 16-point lead to a team down its two most talented players shows both no heart or cohesion, so with Jimmy Butler leading the Timberwolves into town as one of the few athletes capable of locking down LeBron James while making him work on defense, this is a great situation to pile on and ride Minnesota-2.5, guaranteed. For the in-game parlay, back the over.

Result: James and Butler were brilliant, delivering down the stretch in a fantastic duel. LeBron prevented his Cavs from losing another game by turning in an epic performance (37 points, 10 rebounds, 15 assists), making 3-pointers to answer Minnesota makes in regulation and then blocking Butler's game-winning shot attempt on its last possession of OT. He then caught a pass he should've had no access to since he should've been double-teamed, wheeled and drilled a game-winning fadeaway to close a 140-138 win. The over obviously came in, but the Timberwolves not coming through stung.

LOCK THAT DIDN'T CLICK

The pick: Virginia Tech/N.C. State OVER 161
Kevin Keatts has finally gotten the Wolfpack to turn the corner as they take a three-game winning streak into Blacksburg. Currently fourth in the ACC, NC State is just one game up on Virginia Tech, which is sitting in the ninth spot at 5-5 in a tightly-packed race. Both teams will be comfortable playing at a fast pace since the visitors will be able to do damage around the rim and the Hokies should use their speed to excel at home. Ride the over for Wednesday's college hoops guaranteed winner in what should be a high-scoring affair where both teams top the 80-point mark.

Result: This one hurt, coming on the heels of the OT loss in Cleveland. It looked great when the Wolfpack closed to within 61-55 with just under 12 minutes still left, but the rally hit a wall after that. Keatts opted not to foul late in the game, pressing but then pulling back and defending once the Hokies broke it. Virginia Tech won 85-75, taking us to the brink by shooting 63.5 percent from the field. We fell short due to N.C. State's lulls and 10-for-30 3-point shooting. Had State made just one more, chicken dinner would've been served.

TOTAL RECALL

The pick: Kansas State/Texas UNDER 133.5
The expectation here is that Bruce Weber will take his chances with his experienced guards in a low-possession game where they will be able to break pressure but then must be wary of rushing down and wasting possessions. Mo Bamba's presence should limit second chances and slow the tempo down considerably in this Big 12 clash. Ride the under.

Result: While this one went as expected, I consider this my most fortunate win on a night where games consistently fell just short. If there hadn't been a lack of foul calls in the second half of Kansas State's 67-64 win in this Big 12 bubble battle, we'd have hit the bonus early and seen a much higher score. It also helped that the teams combined to shoot 6-for-23 in the second half, combining for just 10 fast-break points.

CARDIAC ATTACK

The pick: Penn State -4.5/OVER 140
The Terps go out on the road looking to try and improve on a 1-6 road record after beating Wisconsin over the weekend, but they haven't won consecutive games in Big Ten play. With Michael Cekovsky still expected to be out with his heel issue, Maryland is down another rim protector and have no safety net if Bruno Fernando gets into foul trouble. The Nittany Lions have put together four straight strong efforts and have an elite scorer in Tony Carr capable of sealing a win down the stretch. Lay the points with Penn State and ride the over for the in-game parlay.

Result: This early start set the tone for a disappointing night. The Nittany Lions had this parlay looking great for most of the second half, going up double-digits with eight minutes left. They struggled against pressure, got Mike Watkins the ball as an outlet in their press break and suffered the consequences since he's their worst free-throw shooter. Still, after the Terps missed their final shot attempt, Watkins wound up with the rebound and could've delivered the cover by making just one of two free-throws. He missed both. Penn State won 74-70

SWING AND A MISS

The pick: Purdue -10
Chris Holtmann is back in Indiana coaching a game for the first time since leaving Butler, and the Boilermakers aren't going to make it an enjoyable experience. This group of Buckeyes didn't have to play in West Lafayette last season and has yet to play an excellent team in a true road game. Ohio State's depth issues should be glaring tonight, especially with Kam Williams suspended. Lay the points and ride Purdue to roll here.  

Result: Holtmann added to his national Coach of the year resume by keeping his team together despite Purdue racing out to a 14-point lead with just over 10 minutes left. Given the atmosphere at Mackey, which Holtmann later called the best he'd ever coached in, it was surreal to see the Boilermakers fade like they did. Keita Bates-Diop continued his dream season and the Buckeyes found a way to outrebound a massive Purdue team in its house, winning the game on a Bates-Diop putback with 2.8 left. At that point, the cover had long been blown and a short-handed group that I expected would wilt had already proven me wrong. Freshmen Kaleb Wesson and Musa Jallow made huge shots. Ohio State ended Purdue's 19-game winning streak, closing its run at home at 21 to take control of the Big Ten race.

PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE

The pick: Texas A&M +6.5
The Aggies have fared tremendously against teams that want to press them, beating West Virginia and Arkansas at home. It will be tougher to fare well on the road, but they beat Auburn by 19 points last season and have guards Duane Wilson and Armon Gilder available to help settle everyone down and handle the atmosphere and constant hassling. Rebounding should be a major factor in what should be a tight, exciting game. Take the points with Texas A&M.  

Result: The Aggies played with the desperation I expected they would carry into this one and imposed their will in the paint, utilizing that edge in rebounding to pull off a huge upset despite blowing a 17-point lead. A&M guards Wilson and Gilder came up huge, with the former drawing a foul with 3.5 seconds left and making a game-winning free-throw for an 81-80 win to hand Auburn its first home loss of the season in 13 outings.