The Bum's 2017 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News Thru Playoffs !

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 14
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIA at PHI 07:00 PM
MIA +6.5
U 201.5

ATL at DET 07:00 PM
O 207.0

CHA at ORL 07:00 PM
CHA -6.0

WAS at NY 07:30 PM
WAS -4.5
O 209.5

IND at BK 07:30 PM
IND -4.0
O 212.5

LAC at BOS 08:00 PM
LAC +4.5

OKC at MEM 08:00 PM
OKC -3.5

LAL at NO 08:00 PM
NO -5.0

SAC at HOU 08:00 PM
HOU -14.5

TOR at CHI 08:00 PM
CHI +6.5
O 219.0

PHO at UTA 09:00 PM
U 212.5

GS at POR 10:30 PM
GS -6.0
O 226.0

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack

Odds to win the Super Bowl next season:

100-1— Bears, Jets, Browns

80-1— Bengals, Bills, Dolphins, Redskins, Giants, Cardinals

60-1— Lions, Buccaneers

40-1— Colts, Titans, Ravens

30-1— Panthers

25-1— Chiefs, Chargers, 49ers, Seahawks

Quote of the Day (apparently this is Steve Kerr quote week)

“Nothing has been done. It doesn’t seem to matter to our government that children are being shot to death day after day in schools. It doesn’t matter that people are being shot at a concert, in a movie theater. It’s not enough, apparently, to move our leadership, our government, people that are running this country, to actually do anything. That’s demoralizing.”
Steve Kerr, whose father was assassinated in Lebanon in 1984

Thursday’s quiz

If you drive straight north from New York City thru upstate New York until you get to Canada, which Canadian province would you be in when you get there?

Wednesday’s quiz

Nets, Pacers, Spurs, Nuggets are the four NBA teams used to play in the ABA.

Tuesday’s quiz

Salem is the capital of Oregon.


Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) 17 innocent people died Wednesday in Florida, in a school shooting. In this country so far in 2018, there have been 18 school shootings in 35 school days; something needs to be done about crazy people having assault rifles, which is what this lunatic had.

12) 50 years ago Wednesday was the first NBA game in the new Madison Square Garden in NYC; Knicks beat the San Diego Rockets 114-102. San Diego had a sub named Pat Riley who scored a basket off the bench; Knicks had a player named Phil Jackson score 14 points for them— wonder whatever happened to those two guys?

11) Wizards 118, Knicks 113— Washington trailed by 27 with 2:41 left in the first half, by 21 at the half, but they rallied for an unlikely win. Knicks have now lost eight games in a row.

10) Providence 76, Villanova 71— Wildcats lost for the second time in their last three games.

9) Former Florida coach Jim McElwain is the new offensive coordinator at Michigan.

8) Last four years, Oregon is 22-0 SU in Pac-12 regular season games, from Valentine’s Day until the end of the regular season.

7) North Texas hosts Western Kentucky in a Conference USA game tonight; Mean Green is 7-5 in C-USA this year, after being 30-60 the last five years. All 12 of North Texas’ conference games this season have been decided by seven or fewer points.

6) Scary car accident in Los Angeles Tuesday night, where a Ferrari clipped a SUV while apparently going very fast; the driver of the Ferrari died when the car overturned- his passenger was pro golfer Bill Haas, who is in serious but stable condition in the hospital. Actor Luke Wilson was driving the SUV; a woman passenger in one of the cars was injured.

5) If/when the Raiders cut Sebastian Janikowski in the next few days, Tom Brady would be the only NFL player drafted before 2003 who is still with the team that drafted him.

4) 16 of 30 NBA teams have a guy from Duke; 15 of 30 have a guy from Kentucky.

3) Last college player to shoot 40%+ from the arc and average 10+ rebounds a game was Kevin Durant; North Carolina’s Luke Maye has a chance to do that this season.

2) Auburn has trailed by double figures in eight games this season; they’re 5-3 in those games.

1) RIP Tito Francona, Terry Francona’s dad, who passed away at age 84. Tito Francona played in the majors for 15 years for nine teams, hitting .272 with a .343 on-base %age.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, February 15

Nuggets won eight of last ten games with Milwaukee; they’re 3-2 vs spread in their last five visits to Wisconsin. Under is 5-3 in last eight series games. Denver won five of its last six games; they are 1-5-1 in last seven games as road underdogs. Eight of their last ten games went over the total. Bucks won eight of their last ten games; they’re 2-4 in last six games as home favorites. Nine of their last ten games stayed under.

Lakers lost six of last nine games with Minnesota; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to the Twin Cities. Eight of last ten series games went over total. Los Angeles split its last eight games; they’re 3-5 in last eight games as road underdogs. Four of their last six road games went over. Timberwolves lost three of their last four games; they’re 8-1 in last nine games as home favorites. Last five Minnesota games went over the total.




NBA

Thursday, February 15

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Trend Report
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DENVER @ MILWAUKEE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games
Denver is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games at home

LA LAKERS @ MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Lakers's last 10 games when playing Minnesota
LA Lakers is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home


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NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, February 15

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DENVER (31 - 26) at MILWAUKEE (32 - 24) - 2/15/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 398-466 ATS (-114.6 Units) in home games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 54-87 ATS (-41.7 Units) in home games in February games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 366-440 ATS (-118.0 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 263-318 ATS (-86.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 2-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (23 - 33) at MINNESOTA (35 - 25) - 2/15/2018, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 362-424 ATS (-104.4 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 24-37 ATS (-16.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 5-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 6-3 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's NBA Essentials
February 15, 2018

Game of the Night - Denver at Milwaukee, Fox Sports Wisconsin/Altitude, 8:05 ET

Denver is among five Western Conference teams enter the final day of action before the All-Star break with 26 losses. Minnesota, which hosts the Lakers in a game we’ll preview below, leads a tightly-packed Northwest Division but has lost 25 times. Current No. 3 seed San Antonio enters the weekend with 24 losses.

We’re going to see a wild finish as eight West teams hit All-Star knowing that they better recharge their batteries and come back ready to work, because only six are going to reach the postseason. That includes the Spurs, suddenly vulnerable due to Kawhi Leonard’s continued absence.

The teams are so tightly packed that a loss in Milwaukee would drop the Nuggets to ninth in the West, just one game up on the streaking Jazz and out of the current playoff picture. With a win, they would enter the week-long respite in sixth, owning a head-to-head tiebreaker on the Trail Blazers.

Despite being just 1.5 games up on Denver, Milwaukee ranks fifth in the East and could move just 1.5 games behind Cleveland for first place in the Central. The Bucks are among the NBA’s hottest teams, winning nine of 11. They’ve continued responding positively to the firing of Jason Kidd, which puts Joe Prunty in the driver’s seat to secure the gig on a full-time basis if Milwaukee continues to prosper.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has to be in the conversation on what appears to be a wide-open MVP race that will be decided over the next two months. The Greek Freak ranks behind only current favorite James Harden in scoring (27.6) and is one of only 11 players averaging double-digits in rebounding (10.4). The offense runs through him and he makes everyone around him better, so he’s likely looking at his first All-NBA First team nod come season’s end.

This matchup against Denver should be a good one given his size advantage over forwards Will Barton and Wilson Chandler. Trey Lyles has made a valuable contribution as a productive stretch four, but Paul Millsap’s continued absence probably hurts most against a team like the Bucks than anyone else. He’s still out a few more weeks, likely until early March, so the Nuggets will have to continue treading water without him.

They’ve played through Nikola Jokic nicely over the past few weeks and watched him deliver his third triple-double in a nine-game span in Tuesday’s 117-109 home win over San Antonio. He’s been fantastic since opening 2018 in a shooting slump, reversing his fortunes and currently at a clip of 52.5 percent for the month, which includes 50 percent from 3-point range. Denver is 5-1 in six February games thus far thanks to Jokic averaging 20.2 points, 11.2 rebounds and 8.3 assists.

The Bucks won’t have long center John Henson due to a hamstring injury, but acquired Tyler Zeller from Brooklyn to make an immediate contribution in the middle. With Jabari Parker now back and looking spry after rehabbing post-knee surgery, Antetokounmpo can also slide to center, so one thing to monitor tonight will be head-to-head matchups where both players seemingly have advantages they can turn to in order to try and get the better of the other.

The Bucks and Nuggets split the season series in Jokic’s rookie season, but he logged triple-doubles in both meetings last year. Jokic averaged 16.5 points, 13 boards and 10.5 assists while shooting 56 percent. Denver won its last visit to Milwaukee on March 1, winning 110-98.

Jabari Parker didn’t participate in that game, but led the Bucks with 27 points and 11 rebounds in 121-117 loss at the Pepsi Center a month earlier. He’s gotten into five games since returning from his latest knee surgery of Feb. 2, but still hasn’t played more than 20 minutes or scored more than 12 points, shooting just 42 percent and making 1-for-6 from 3-point range. He finished a thunderous dunk from a standing position and still features that unique burst you typically wouldn’t associate with his frame, but he continues to work his way back.

Henson will be joined on the bench by injured reigning Rookie of the Year Malcolm Brogdon (knee), backup guard Matthew Dellavedova (ankle) and stretch-four Mirza Teletovic (lung), so they’ve gone deeper into their bench, asking for contributions from veteran Jason Terry and Sterling Brown. Thon Maker and Tony Snell have joined Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe in the starting lineup.

Denver lists Mason Plumlee as out due to a calf injury, but has cleared guard Jamal Murray to play. The under has prevailed in 10 of the last 11 Bucks games. Milwaukee has won its last five at Bradley Center, but has only covered in two of those games.

The over is 8-2 over the Nuggets’ last 10. This is only their eighth road game in 2018. Denver is 1-6 outright and 2-3-1 against the number in those contests, snapping a six-game winless run in their Feb. 10 123-113 win in Phoenix.

L.A. Lakers at Minnesota, TNT, 9:05

The Timberwolves have hit a rough patch of late and will attempt to avoid heading to the All-Star break on a run of losses in four of five by taking care of business here.

Since matching a season-best five-game winning streak for the third time by defeating Portland to wrap up a perfect homestand that also included wins over New Orleans, Cleveland and OKC, the Wolves have gone just 6-9. All but one the wins in that span came at home, where Minnesota hadn’t lost since Dec. 16 before Tuesday’s 126-108 loss to Houston.

A 13-game winning streak in Minneapolis ended as the Wolves dropped their first home game in ’18, and it must be noted that the haven’t lost consecutive games at Target Center since Feb. 4-6 of last year.

This will be the third meeting of the season between them and the Lakers, but the first on an non-holiday. L.A. has suffered Christmas night (121-104) and New Year’s Day (114-96) losses at the hands of the Wolves, failing to cover each time. Standout rookie Lonzo Ball hasn’t played in either game and will be held out again tonight with a sore left knee.

Jason Hart has been starting at point guard with Ball out and Jordan Clarkson being traded to Cleveland.

Isaiah Thomas will come off the bench and had a strong debut in a Feb. 10 loss in Dallas, scoring 22 points in 31 minutes. He was ejected from Wednesday night’s 139-117 loss in New Orleans along with head coach Luke Walton after getting into it with Rajon Rondo in the first quarter, so he should have fresh legs to try and anchor the second unit alongside standout rookie Kyle Kuzma. The Lakers are actually 12-6 since Jan. 7 but have surrendered an average of 134.5 points over their last two losses. The over has prevailed in five straight games involving the Timberwolves.

[StarDust Bum]

Dinero Tracker - Feb. 15
February 15, 2018

Read the Dinero Tracker's mission statement here
Last night's ATS Records
NBA: 4-5 | NCAA BB: 13-8

Wednesday's picks went reasonably well, but there were a few moments that swung results. On the positive side, OT prevented a loss on the FSU/Clemson total and I managed to avoid getting burned on a Florida/Georgia under bad beat since I held back late. There were some bullets I couldn't dodge, and the freebie crowd caugtht it too, right in the chest at the bitter end. Both sets of guarantees looked like they were coming in for a second straight day, but the college lock came up painfully short. That theme was present in the pros too, with two setbacks coming by a single point. The NBA lock managed to squeak by and is now 20-for-30 (66.7%) since Jan. 11. Here's Wednesday's recap, complete with some of the highlights (and lowlights):

THURSDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Arizona/ASU OVER
The Sun Devils will look to try and split the season series, but won't be able to slow down DeAndre Ayton, which is what took them down in the first meeting. With Dusan Ristic supplying yet another huge body Arizona State isn't equipped to deal with, they're going to look to run. Tra Holder scored 32 points and should have plenty of help pushing tempo, so the expectation here is that this game will wind up higher-scoring than the first meeting, an 84-78 'Cats win on Dec. 30. Ride the over.

WEDNESDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Hornets -5
The Magic have been a tremendous team against the spread despite all their injury issues, covering the number in 12 of their last 15. They've been an underdog in all but one of those games and are 12-2 catching points, but both of those setbacks have come at home. With Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon ruled out until after All-Star break, look for Orlando to come up short against a Hornets team that it has lost two twice in Charlotte already this season. Dwight Howard is making his debut in Orlando with his latest team and has experienced a resurgence in his first season there. With Kemba Walker in a groove and set to face off against one of his first backcourt mates, D.J. Augustin, we're going to lay the points. Ride Charlotte.

Result: The freebie is now 4-2-1 over the last seven, but looked like we had a push after a pair of Jeremy Lamb free-throws gave the Hornets a 104-99 lead with 2.3 seconds left. With no timeouts remaining, the Magic just threw a fullcourt baseball pass that Marvin Williams tried to deflect and overran, leaving Marreese Speights to catch and knock down a 3-pointer that just beat the buzzer. St. John's lost a cover (-2) against DePaul in similar fashion later in the night, so we'll take solace in not being on the receiving end of that one too.

WEDNESDAY'S LOCK

The pick: Pacers -4
The Pacers should take advantage of the fact that the Nets are still attempting to work in Jahlil Okafor and they haven't had D'Angelo Russell get back up to speed off his injury. With Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson out again, quality depth is likely to be an issue against a team with a strong second unit. Lay the points and ride Indiana, guaranteed.

Result: We were fortunate to pick up a cover here, since Indiana was down three points with 5:52 left but ended up winning the fourth 35-24. Cory Joseph finished just 4-for-7 from the stripe and left the door wide open for Brooklyn, but Spencer Dinwiddie returned the favor with a free-throw miss of his own with 4.5 seconds left, resulting in a 108-103 final. The total closed 212, so it would've been interesting to see if the Nets would've fouled had Dinwiddie not missed. A push on both side and total would've been like kissing your sister on both cheeks, Euro-style, twice.

LOCK THAT DIDN'T CLICK

The pick: Nevada/Boise State OVER 150
This is for first place in the Mountain West, providing the Wolf Pack an opportunity to really strengthen their position as we head down to the wire in the regular-season race. Eric Musselman's team has been fantastic on the road, but the Broncos haven't lost at Taco Bell Arena and are fueled by an improving probable lottery pick in impressive wing Chandler Hutchison, who didn't shoot well from beyond the arc in the first meeting but did end up scoring 27. With Caleb Martin not 100 percent, Nevada won't be able to defend like it would want to on the road, but they can put the ball in the basket and will extend this at the very least. Ride the over, guaranteed.

Result: Outside of watching Lindsey Drew tragically tear his Achilles, this was a fantastic game that ended up putting on the best show on the entire college card. Both teams made big shots down the stretch, but the Wolf Pack persevered and pulled off a 77-72 win. Hutchison had a clean look at a short jumper that would've tied the game at 74 and then missed a great look at a 3-pointer on the same possession, keeping our over call from coming in. The Wolf Pack missed a free-throw that would've delivered a push, Boise turned over its last possession and the ball ended up in Caleb Martin's hands for a smooth 360 celebratory breakaway dunk that was slammed down a good second after the final buzzer. Martin was booed anyway, so we would've appreciated if he hadn't hesitated slightly before throwing down.

TOTAL RECALL

The pick: Indiana/Illinois OVER 141.5
This is a revenge game for the Hoosiers, who fell by a bucket in Champaign on Jan. 24, supplying one of the few highlights of Brad Underwood's first season at Illinois. Indiana is a different team at Assembly Hall, but this strikes me as just too many points to count on covering at home. The over is the safest bet here.

Result: This worked out well since the Hoosiers ended up covering the 9.5 with a 78-68 win that would've been too stressful to sit through as an interested party. The game extension down the stretch delivered the over far more comfortably.

CARDIAC ATTACK

The pick: Auburn -9
This isn't likely to be a fun night for Kentucky, which still has time on its side but is likely to hit rock bottom with a double-digit loss here. Bryce Brown is set to play and the Tigers are playing a fourth consecutive home game. The 'Cats come off an 11-point loss in College Station and will drop their fourth straight here. Lay the points and ride Auburn.

Result: Auburn opened 1-for-16 from the field and actually trailed 59-58 with 6:15 remaining before they took over. Bryce Brown hit big shots to help the Tigers close on an 18-7 run in a 76-66 win. This is now Kentucky's first four-game losing streak since 2009 and first under John Calipari, but it was in this game for the bulk of it and isn't a lost cause just yet. Auburn is just better and came through on the home cover.

SWING AND A MISS

The pick: Virginia Tech +10.5, VT/Duke OVER 162
The Hokies will test Duke's porous defense and will benefit from the continued absence of star forward Marvin Bagley III, who leads the entire ACC in scoring and rebounding. Without his presence on the floor, look for Virginia Tech to be more successful attacking the paint, holding up well in Durham in what should be a higher-scoring game than even this lofty number can cover. Ride Virginia Tech plus the points and back the over for the in-game parlay.

Result: The Hokies managed to score 52 points in getting blown out and left Hubie Brown puzzled as to why they were complicating matters for themselves on offense. Duke clamped down, but with Bagley sidelined, it should've been in for a tough game from a Virginia Tech team that took down UVa. Grayson Allen took Tech's heart early. Didn't see that coming.

PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE

The pick: Xavier -6, XU/Seton Hall OVER 157.5
The Pirates have had a lousy February so far, losing at home to Villanova and Marquette and dropping their most recent game at Georgetown. They make tough shots, but seemingly always fall into a self-imposed trap, something that will always trip you up on the road in Cincinnati. Lay the points with Xavier and ride the over for the in-game parlay.  

Result: An inability to stop Trevon Bluiett provided Seton Hall's latest insurmountable obstacle, as he went for 37 points and shot 8-for-11 from 3-point range, helping his team out to a 42-22 lead. The Pirates were down big, did manage to rally behind Myles Powell and Desi Rodriguez combining for 50 points, but their nightmare month continue. The Muskies won 102-90, coasting comfortably after JP Macura ended the Hall's comeback bid with a late dagger 3, XU's 14th on the night.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack

— 1B Eric Hosmer gets $18M a year for eight years from the San Diego Padres.

— Georgetown covered six of its last seven games.

— Indiana Hoosiers are 8-0 vs spread in conference home games.

— There were no seniors on either roster in Alabama-Kentucky game. None.

— Notre Dame 84, BC 67— Matt Farrell was 10-12 on the arc for the Irish.

— Tampa Bay traded P Jake Odorizzi to the Twins for a SS prospect; they also acquired 1B CJ Cron from the Angels, and DFA’d DH Corey Dickerson- he was an All-Star LY.

Quote of the Day

“I’m incredibly proud of our players for using the platform they have as players in the NBA and on social media to speak out on issues that are important to them. And I was proud of LeBron and Kevin’s response to the comments that were made about them.”
NBA commish Adam Silver

Sunday’s quiz

Which NBA team drafted Kobe Bryant?

Saturday’s quiz

Bill Murray’s son is an assistant coach at Xavier.

Friday’s quiz

Montgomery is the capital of Alabama.

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Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a college hoop Saturday

13) Kansas 77, West Virginia 69— Jayhawks were 26-35 on foul line, West Virginia was 1-2, in a game the Mountaineers led by 12 with 10:18 left. To say they got hosed is an understatement.

This is third straight series game Mountaineers had a double-digit lead over Kansas but lost.

12) Michigan State 66, Northwestern 60— Spartans were down 27 in first half, 22 at the half. This was one of those scores, when I saw it, thought it was a girls’ score or a mistake, but then State rallies for an unlikely win.

11) South Carolina 84, Auburn 75— Tigers split their last four games after a 21-2 start. Auburn lost 6-7 McLemore, a solid rebounder, with a severe leg injury.

10) Idaho 79, Montana 77 OT— Vandals made 12-19 on arc as Grizzlies went 0-2 this weekend after starting the week unbeaten in Big Sky play. Big Sky is ranked as the 18th-best conference this year, highest it has been rated since 2010- they were 25th or lower the last six years.

9) Marquette 90, Creighton 86— Marquette lost five of its last seven games; they allowed 85-86 points in the two wins. Not a strong defensive team.

8) Villanova 95, Xavier 79— Wildcats were only 3-5 on foul line, 16-34 on arc- this is not the way to get to a Final Four— you need some kind of inside presence and production. This is obviously a good win, but unless Villanova gets more scoring inside, they’ll have a short March.

7) Upsets of the Day:
Eastern Kentucky (+11.5) 72, Tennessee State 59
Santa Clara (+9) 72, Pacific 68
James Madison (+8) 69, Towson State 66
Marquette (+7.5) 90, Creighton 86
Cal-Davis (+7.5) 71, UCSB 54
VMI (+7) 75, Citadel 71
Texas (+6.5) 77, Oklahoma 66

6) UCLA 86, Oregon 78 OT— Tough weekend in LA for the Ducks, who lost at the buzzer at USC in last game Thursday. Bruins were 16-33 on the arc; they’re a surprising bubble team.

5) There was a triple OT game Thursday and one on Friday; if you wagered against all four teams in their next game Saturday, you would’ve won three of four bets.

4) A kid on Arizona State wore one maroon sneaker, one gold sneaker in the ASU-Arizona game Thursday. A player on Alabama wore one crimson sneaker, one white one in the Tide’s loss at Kentucky Saturday. Not sure if this is a growing trend, but if it is, you know each kid has another pair of sneakers at home, just like the mismatched pair.

3) Texas 77, Oklahoma 66— Sooners lost five in row, 8 of last 10 games, as the Trey Young bandwagon is stuck in reverse. ESPN’s hype machine did this to the Ben Simmons-LSU team couple years ago; they put a target on the kid’s back by talking about him endlessly, then looked on in wonderment when the team suffers.

2) Nebraska Cornhuskers won their last six games, covered 13 of their last 14 league games.

1— Shout out to the fine folks at Albany Park & Ride; when I go to Las Vegas, often leave my car there, and they shuttle me to the nearby airport. When I come back, they have the car waiting for me in their lot and it is all very convenient, especially in winter time. Good place.

[StarDust Bum]

Dinero Tracker - Feb. 17
February 17, 2018

Read the Dinero Tracker's mission statement here
Last night's ATS Records
NBA: 0-0 | NCAA BB: 9-9

Friday night started much better than it ended, since I lost big showdowns in both the Sun Belt and Horizon League. My college lock came in, as did my hunch on Twitter that the World Team would take down Team USA in NBA Rising Stars. I think it's impossible to pick a winner in the 3-point and skills challenge, but do like Dennis Smith, Jr. to beat Donovan Mitchell in the slam dunk contest. Here's Friday's recap, complete with some of the highlights (and lowlights):

SATURDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: TCU -7
This is one of Saturday night's most intriguing matchups. Both TCU and Oklahoma State enter this matchup under .500 in Big 12 play but they're perceived differently as far as the bracket goes. A home loss here could cast the Horned Frogs on a slippery slope, which is why I think we'll see desperation play a big role in completing a sweep of the Cowboys. Five TCU players scored in double-figures as the team shared the ball and burden beautifully in a 79-66 win in Stillwater. Consider that the Cowboys shot 8-for-14 from 3-point range and were still easily cast aside. Lay the points and ride TCU.

FRIDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Penn ML -145
The Quakers look to keep pace with Harvard atop the Ivy League by winning on the road this weekend. Although the Ivy League now has a four-team tournament in place to decide who reaches the NCAA Tournament instead of rewarding their regular-season champ, the Crimson will have to come through the Palestra next Saturday, so you know that this weekend's games will be about rebounding from their first league loss in Cambridge and taking care of business as a favorite so that they're still even with Harvard come next week. On paper, this visit to NYC will be their toughest test, so it's a good thing that it's up first. Ride Penn on the money line to win at Columbia as opposed to laying the extra possession on the road.

Result: The freebie came through comfortably thanks to a fantastic finish from the Quakers, who trailed Columbia for most of the night until putting together an 18-0 run, holding the Lions without a field goal for over five minutes down the stretch.

FRIDAY'S LOCK

The pick: Princeton/Cornell OVER 144.5
The Big Red have a pair of terrific scorers in guard Matt Morgan and sweet-shooting big man Stone Gettings. They don't play a lick of defense, so facing a Tigers squad that has dropped four straight games by also being unable to get stops should create a game where both teams chase points wherever they can get them and we'll get a game extension by whoever is down to aid the cause. Ride the over, guaranteed.

Result: Chicken dinners were provided for all who got in on last night's college lock, although there were a few nervous moments early since the Big Red couldn't score at all. Any fears that the Tigers would be able to lock Cornell down all game were alleviated before halftime, leading to a fantastic second half where we reached our goal in regulation and these teams played deep into the night. Cornell prevailed in a 107-101 triple-OT thriller that marked the first time in the 118-year history of the series where both teams scored more than 100 points each.

TOTAL RECALL

The pick: Oakland/Cleveland State OVER 151
It's been a really rough week for the Golden Grizzlies, who have lost key senior wing Martez Walker, one of the Horizon League's top talents. They then saw their rough time compounded by a loss to Youngstown at the buzzer, so today's game will test the resilience of Greg Kampe's team. There is a chance they'll score more efficiently without Walker since Jalen Hayes and Kendrick Nunn will get more touches, so against a beatable team like Cleveland State, this appears to be a strong bounce-back spot since the Vikings are vulnerable defensively. Ride Oakland -5 and the over for the in-game parlay.

Result: Oakland put together a fantastic second half to cover our side play, but a 20-2 run over the Vikings down the stretch meant that this wasn't close enough to get the game extended with some late-game fouling. Cleveland State still got off a 3-pointer that would've delievered a push, but came up short in an 82-66 loss.

CARDIAC ATTACK

The pick: St. Bonaventure +3
There definitely seems to be a curse for most teams that have entered this week unbeaten in conference play. Montana, New Mexico State and Florida Gulf Coast joined Cincinnati in losing in their respective leagues for the first time. Rhode Island comes in perfect and will now likely have EC Matthews for this one, but there's no way he's 100 percent. Ride St. Bonaventure plus the points.

Result: This was a terrific game, living up to billing in every way. Matthews played and showed he's still got plenty of juice on an athletic, twisting jumper late in the game. His shot missed, which allowed the Bonnies to escape with a thrilling 77-74 win. St. Bonaventure is for real, winning in spite of an off night from star guard Jaylen Adams. I hope they finish strong enough to command an NCAA Tournament bid.

SWING AND A MISS

The pick: Georgia State ML -135, GSU/Georgia Southern UNDER 14
The Panthers lost to Louisiana-Monroe in Atlanta on Saturday and have only fallen in consecutive games twice this season. They owned the first meeting in Statesboro and seem to match up well with the rival Eagles due to their ability to make their guards work for every inch. Ride Georgia State on the money line and back the under for the in-game parlay.

Result: The Eagles played a fantastic game, taking advantage of Panthers guard D'Marcus Simonds being saddled with foul trouble early and throughout the evening. The teams shot a combined 76 free throws, so my under never had a shot.

PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE

The pick: Yale ML -145
The Big Green come off an enormous win over Princeton to snap a 10-game losing streak and end a winless run in Ivy League play. That upset certainly ensures James Jones' Bulldogs won't come into this one expecting a win to be a given, especially since they need this game badly considering their at .500 in the Ancient Eight and will need to put in work to secure a spot in the conference tourney. Ride Yale on the money line.  

Result: The Bulldogs took control of this one in the middle of the first half and got up by as much as 75-50, putting this one in the win column well before it was over.

[StarDust Bum]

Teams picked by LeBron, Steph are ready
February 17, 2018

LOS ANGELES (AP) The NBA All-Star Game added spice to its 67th edition by allowing the captains to pick their teams. Team LeBron vs. Team Steph has replaced the traditional East-West format, shuffling allegiances and turning antagonists into uneasy teammates.

But with the world's best basketball players all converging on Los Angeles, the hungry fans of the hometown Lakers are eager to pick their own dream team as well.

For instance, a gathering of a few hundred fans at media day in the Los Angeles Convention Center on Saturday caught sight of Paul George, Oklahoma City's All-Star scorer and a Southern California native.

The pro-Lakers crowd immediately launched into a chant of ''We want Paul! We want Paul!'' at the smiling George, who can be a free agent this summer.

From his podium elsewhere in the room, Russell Westbrook - the Thunder's other All-Star and LA native - snarled with sarcastic anger: ''That's out! He ain't going nowhere!''

The game is never really the thing at the NBA's All-Star weekend, and that's particularly true while the show is in Hollywood for the record sixth time.

Aside from the new team format in the Sunday showcase, many of the NBA's biggest stars are returning home, since they already make their summer homes in LA. Lakers fans are most interested in the potential 2018 free agents who could immediately resurrect the 16-time champion franchise, which is currently stumbling toward its unprecedented fifth consecutive non-playoff season.

Lakers fans want George, but they also want LeBron James - and they'll let both stars know it at Staples Center.

James dismissed free agency questions Saturday, just as he has done all season, but his palatial house in Los Angeles is among the reasons Lakers fans believe they've got a chance to create their own All-Star team in a few months.

But before that, James and Stephen Curry will lead two talent-laden teams at Staples Center for the annual showcase of the NBA's best.

Both captains are cautiously optimistic that this tweaked format will pay off with better play than in other All-Star games, which often turn into pickup games with a fraction of the entertainment value of even the Drew League, the famed pro-am circuit in which many stars participate every summer in South Central LA.

''It should be a little bit more competitive, a little bit more intense on the court,'' said Curry, the Golden State Warriors' shooting star. ''It means a little more when it's Team LeBron and Team Steph.''

The team selection process wasn't made public, but the results will be very visible. The decision to keep the draft private disappointed fans - and even a few All-Stars.

''I thought it was going to be televised,'' Team LeBron center Andre Drummond said. ''I thought it would be a cool spinoff: Live, LeBron and Curry picking guys. But hopefully next year they do it.''

Curry picked his Golden State teammates Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, but lost Kevin Durant to James. LeBron also tantalizingly picked Kyrie Irving, the Boston guard who campaigned to leave James' side in Cleveland last summer.

Irving said it was ''pretty awesome'' to be James' teammate again: ''It's normal. Sorry, I know that sounds like not a lot, but it's just normal.''

And everybody will be curious about what happens when Westbrook reteams with Durant, who ditched him in Oklahoma City in 2016 to win a championship in Oakland last year.

James' original roster has been dramatically altered by injuries to DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall, Kristaps Porzingis and Kevin Love, who all won't play.

But LeBron and Toronto coach Dwane Casey could still roll out a nightmarish lineup featuring, for instance, New Orleans' Anthony Davis and James alongside Durant, Westbrook and George.

Curry and Houston coach Mike D'Antoni could counter with a galaxy of shooting stars including James Harden, Damian Lillard, Thompson, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Curry himself.

''I think it's exciting,'' said Harden, the product of nearby Artesia High School in Lakewood. ''The All-Star Game, there are a lot of highlights, but we're trying to win, and we're going to go out there and prove that we're trying to win.''

Westbrook says this novel game format will ''definitely'' be more competitive than past editions of the midseason showcase.

''My experience, my record with the West, we don't lose much,'' said Westbrook, who came out of Leuzinger High School and UCLA. ''So I'm just saying. We usually win. Just saying.''

[StarDust Bum]

NBA All-Star Game betting preview and odds: Team LeBron vs. Team Stephen

Team LeBron vs. Team Stephen (+2.5, 341)

The best and brightest stars in the basketball universe converge upon Staples Center in Los Angeles on Sunday afternoon in the latest edition of the NBA All-Star Game. This year's version of the mid-season spectacle features a new wrinkle, with captains LeBron James and Stephen Curry choosing their teams. The result: Teammates facing off against each other, and allegiances you would never see outside of an Olympic Games. And while Team Stephen has enjoyed much better health in the weeks leading into the game, you can never count out a team with LeBron at the helm.

These games have been high scoring affairs in the past, but after last year's combatants combined for an absurd 374 points - 22 above the total - oddsmakers are not taking any chances, making this year's total the highest in All-Star Game history. And with these two lineups and their likely aversion to defense of any kind, look for the over to be a consideration. The format change brings an end to the Western Conference's All-Star dominance; it had won eight of the previous 10 games coming into this weekend, including each of the last three. This is the third All-Star Game held at Staples Center.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, TSN

LINE HISTORY: Team Steph opened as a 3 1/2-point favorite but has taken a tumble since, and is now a slight underdog. The total meanwhile has seen one of the most remarkable moves you'll ever see in sports betting. Most books opened the number at 366 but since then bettors have hammered the Under moving the line a unfathomable 25-points.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Not much to report on regarding the spread. We opened Team LeBron -3 and haven't budged off that number. Right now, we have almost 70 percent of the bets on that side and most of it is public money. The total has been bet down four points to 342 since the open. Perhaps bettors are subscribing to the notion of this being a more serious game with the new lineups." - Scott Cooley, odds consultant BetDSI.

ROSTERS (* - injured and will not play)

Team LeBron Head Coach: Dwane Casey
Team LeBron Starters: G Kyrie Irving F, LeBron James, F Kevin Durant, F/C Anthony Davis, *DeMarcus Cousins (replaced on roster by F Paul George)
Team LeBron Reserves: G Bradley Beal, *G John Wall (replaced by Andre Drummond), G Russell Westbrook, G Victor Oladipo, F/C LaMarcus Aldridge, *F/C Kevin Love (replaced by Goran Dragic), *F/C Kristaps Porzingis (replaced by Kemba Walker)

Team Steph Head Coach: Mike D'Antoni
Team Steph Starters: G James Harden, G Steph Curry, G DeMar DeRozan, G/F Giannis Antetokounmpo, F/C Joel Embiid
Team Stephen Reserves: G Damian Lillard, G Kyle Lowry, G Klay Thompson, G/F Jimmy Butler, F Draymond Green, F/C Al Horford, C Karl-Anthony Towns

ABOUT TEAM LeBRON: It's hard to handicap James's team, since we don't yet know who the fifth starter will be; Cousins was supposed to round out the starting five, but his season-ending Achilles injury leaves that selection in the hands of Raptors head coach Dwane Casey. Regardless of who gets that spot, this lineup has plenty of length, between James, Durant and Davis. The bench is heavy on guards, and if Casey is smart, he'll consider starting the electrifying Westbrook alongside Irving. That might lead to awkwardness between Durant and Westbrook - and LeBron and Kyrie, too - but you can't top the skill level Durant, James, Irving and Westbrook bring. Rounding out that group with a superstar in Davis could mean a rough start to the game for Team Stephen.

ABOUT TEAM STEPH: Curry's five-man unit has remained completely healthy, and will be all about the ball handling; Harden and Antetokounmpo are elite passers at their respective positions, and Curry can thread the needle with the best of them. DeRozan should be in for a half-dozen uncontested dunks while Embiid is the biggest wild-card; he's nursing a sore right ankle and could be on a minutes restriction in this one, but he has proven to be positively destructive even in limited action. This bench is small but versatile, with Butler and Green expected to make life difficult for Team LeBron shooters. Lillard and Thompson can hit from anywhere on the floor, and Towns is considerably better than any reserve big on the Team LeBron roster.

ALL-STAR GAME MVP ODDS (PER PINNACLE):
LeBron James +463
Russell Westbrook +520
Giannis Antetokoumpo +598
Stephen Curry +632
Kevin Durant +701
James Harden +817
Anthony Davis +1027
DeMar DeRozan +1450
Kyrie Irving +1701
Joel Embiid +1763
Paul George +1823
Klay Thompson +1940
Damian Lillard +2662
LaMarcus Aldridge +4490
Bradley Beal +5078
Al Horford +5642
Andre Drummond +5642
Draymond Green +5642
Goran Dragic +5642
Jimmy Butler +5642
Karl-Anthony Towns +5642
Kemba Walker +5642
Kyle Lowry +5642

TRENDS:

* The favorite has covered in each of last five years and is 5-2 ATS the last seven games.
* The last three All-Star Games have gone over the total, and the game is 6-1 O/U in the past seven years.
* No All-Star team has scored fewer than 155 points since 2013.
* Both of the previous two All-Star Games played at Staples Center were decided by six points or fewer.
* Team LeBron boasts five of the previous six All-Star Game MVPs (Westbrook x 2, Durant, Irving, Davis).

[StarDust Bum]

New NBA All-Star Game format forces the biggest line move you will ever see
Ashton Grewal

The opening total for the 2018 NBA All-Star was the second-highest Over/Under number in 10 years of All-Star Weekends. However, due to the new draft format of the annual NBA showcase – instead of East versus West – sharp money pounded the total and forced one of the biggest line moves you will ever see in sports betting.

Some offshore sportsbooks opened the All-Star Game total at 365.5 points Friday and immediately got blasted by Under money, forcing a drastic adjustment to the total. The number plummeted as far as 340 points – a 25.5-point move – before settling around 342.5 points Saturday afternoon.

Of course, this year the league introduced a new format for the composition of the two teams. It’s no longer East vs. West: it’s Team LeBron vs. Team Steph.

There are some, like Joe Fortenbaugh, who think there will be more intensity in this year’s game because of the team selection process. The massive line adjustment would back up that theory, as sharp money attacked the opening total expecting more pride on the line due to the draft format.

Bragging rights are not the only stakes that have increased. The NBA doubled its prize payout to each player on the winning team from $50,000 to $100,000. A six-figure cash prize might be enough to see some players get down in a defensive stance before the last two minutes in the fourth quarter.

This Under action is contrary to recent NBA All-Star Game betting trends, which have seen the Over cash in during eight of the past nine exhibitions. Oddsmakers had steadily increased the betting total year after year as the East and West All-Stars easily toppled those lofty totals.

Three-point shooting has been the biggest culprit when it comes to high-scoring All-Star Game finishes. The 2010 event had 38 attempts from distance and in just six years the record was set for the most 3-pointers attempted in an NBA All-Star game with 139. The All-Star record for most total points was set in 2016 (369 points) and then broken the very next year (374).

That lack of defense sparked the league to alter the way in which the All-Star Game is played, dropping the traditional conference competition and installing a draft format with superstars LeBron James and Stephen Curry selecting teams from a pool of selected standouts.

The spread for Sunday’s NBA All-Star Game has also seen some wild movement. It opened with Team Steph as a 3.5-point favorite but has since jumped the fence, with Team LeBron now a 3-point chalk for Sunday’s showcase in Los Angeles.

[StarDust Bum]

The total for this evening's NBA All-Star Game now down to 338.5. After opening late last week as high as 365.5 this number has seen an insane drop of 27 points heading into game day.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack

Six top prospects for the Arizona Diamondbacks:

1) Jon Duplantier, P— Rice alum has a 1.38 ERA in 24 Class A starts.

3) Pavin Smith, 1B— Virginia alum hit .318 in his first 51 minor league games.

5) Daulton Varsho, C— His dad played in big leagues; is named after Darren Daulton.

8) Taylor Clarke, P— Charleston alum already has thrown 315 minor league innings.

14) Jimmie Sherfy, P— Didn’t allow an earned run in 11 big league innings LY.

22) Kevin Cron, 1B— Older brother CJ just got traded to Tampa Bay.

Quote of the Day
“Oh, [surgery] is not an option for me right now. I feel very, very good about where I am. So that ship has sailed in my mind, which is also a bit of a relief. I’m not going to lie.It’s been a long journey to this point, and it’ll still be a long journey until hopefully we get what we need to get done in Indianapolis.

The rehab has been hard at times. The one thing I know in my heart is that I am getting better, and I’m feeling great. I’m extremely optimistic. It’s been fun to see myself improve, so really I couldn’t be more excited for this offseason and for our new coach — everything that’s happening — and where the direction of the team is going.”
Colts’ QB Andrew Luck

Thursday’s quiz
Of the ten teams currently in the Big East, what is the only team yet to win a game in the last four Big East tournaments?

Wednesday’s quiz
In the 70’s, Chicago White Sox had an artificial turf infield and a grass outfield at Comiskey Park.

Tuesday’s quiz
There are five major league teams in California: A’s, Giants, Angels, Dodgers, Padres.

***********************

Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Seton Hall @ Providence— Pirates led 56-47 with 13:03 left when condensation on the court forced officials to suspend this game until Thursday afternoon. It was very warm Wednesday in New England, and the hockey ice under the basketball floor caused the problems.

12) San Antonio Spurs are paying Kawhi Leonard $18,868,625 this season, which puts him over the $60M mark in career earnings, all from the Spurs, but Leonard has played in only nine games this season, because of a right quad tendinopathy injury.

Spurs’ doctors have cleared him to return to play, but Leonard has decided he isn’t ready to play yet. Leonard will be a free agent after next season; wonder how much he’ll play next season?

11) North Carolina 78, Syracuse 74— UNC wins its sixth game in row, shooting 8-22 in Carrier Dome, a tough place to shoot. Tar Heels are shooting 37.2% behind the arc this season, their best mark in five years. Three Syracuse players went the whole 40:00.

10) Duke 82, Louisville 56— What will Louisville do this spring? Will they keep interim coach David Padgett, or will they try and attract a big-name coach to carry on the school’s tradition, which could be difficult, seeing as probation is likely in the program’s future.

9) Stephen F Austin 97, Central Arkansas 62— Lumberjacks are 23-5, 12-3 in Southland, but how good are they? They lost by 5 at Mississippi State, lost by 1 at Missouri, won by 1 at LSU, so they’re good enough to hang middle-rung SEC teams, so they’re probably good enough to compete with a big-name school next month. SFA forces turnovers on 26.9% of its opponents’ possessions, tops in America, so you better have experienced guards against them.

8) Auburn 90, Alabama 71— Tigers avenged an earlier loss in Tuscaloosa; Auburn is down to seven rotation guys, thanks to injury/eligibility issues- none of those seven guys are seniors. Both teams took the exact same number of 3-point shots as 2-point shots.

7) There was a 3-way trade in baseball Tuesday; it went this way:
Tampa Bay got P Anthony Banda and three other minor leaguers
Arizona got OF Steven Souza Jr
Bronx Bombers got 3B/2B Brandon Drury

6) Upsets of the Night:
George Mason (+8) 79, St Joe’s 76
Bradley (+6) 82, Missouri State 78
Cal-Riverside (+4) 69, Cal-Fullerton 65
Oklahoma State (+3) 79, Texas Tech 71
Michigan (+3) 72, Penn State 63

5) Grand Canyon University in Phoenix is the only Division I basketball program that is attached to a for-profit university. This is the first year the Antelopes are eligible for the NCAA’s; they’re 17-10 right now, 6-5 in the WAC, in 4th place in the 8-team league.

From espn.com: “More than 19,000 students attend the GCU campus, and another 70,000 students pursue degrees online, which creates a fruitful revenue stream — the school generated $218 million in the second quarter of 2017 alone, $4 million more than professional wrestling giant WWE’s earnings in the same period — for a school that earns 79 percent of its revenue from federal student financial aid, per azcentral.com”

4) NBA fined Mark Cuban $600,000 for talking about his Mavericks tanking games, which he probably did to distract attention from the Sports Illustrated story that talked about a couple of bad guys who worked for the Mavericks on the business side of things.

3) Eagles’ WR Alshon Jeffery played the whole NFL season with a torn rotator cuff in his shoulder. Jeffery caught 57 passes for 789 yards and nine TD’s this past season, and helped the Eagles win their first Super Bowl title.

2) Oklahoma State 79, Texas Tech 71— Kansas is back in first place in Big X; they visit Lubbock Saturday, for a first-place showdown with the Red Raiders.

1) Fairfield 70, Siena 69— Three of Saints’ last four games were decided by one point or in OT; they’re 8-22, 4-13 in MAAC, turning ball over 22.1% of time with the 8th-least experienced team in the country.

[StarDust Bum]

2nd Half Trends to Watch
February 20, 2018

You’ll never guess which team in the NBA is 10-0 ATS when coming off consecutive wins this season. With that and with the NBA taking a timeout for the All-Star break, there is no better time than the present to examine the condition of each team in the league at this stage of the season.

From the surprise teams to the disappointments, the run to the 2018 playoffs is about to take off.

Here’s a quick look from my well-oiled database of the very best and the very worst pointspread records to date this season of every team in games played this season through the All-Star break. In addition, I also present a noteworthy most recent trend on each team.

All results are SU (Straight Up), ATS (Against The Spread) or O/U (Over Under sequence) unless stated otherwise.

ATLANTA
Best: 5-0-1 ATS vs. non-rested non-conference foes
Worst: 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS off a DD win
Trending: Hawks are 0-3 SU/ATS following consecutive SU wins

BOSTON
Best: 8-1 ATS as dogs of 3 or more points
Worst: 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS off a loss vs. foe off win 6 or more
Trending: Celtics 6-9 SU and 6-8-1 ATS L15 games prior to the break

BROOKLYN
Best: 6-0 ATS off DD win
Worst: 0-3 ATS with 3+ days of rest
Trending: Nets 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS L11 games prior to the break

CHARLOTTE
Best: 5-1 ATS home vs. foe off SU dog win
Worst: 2-10-1 ATS as dog off a win
Trending: The Hornets 0-6 ATS L6 games prior to the break

CHICAGO
Best: 10-0 ATS following consecutive wins
Worst: 0-7-2 ATS vs. non-conference foes off a DD win
Trending: The Bulls 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS L10 games prior to the break

CLEVELAND
Best: 5-0 ATS as dogs off BB wins
Worst: 0-14 ATS as favorites more than 9 points
Trending: 4-0 SU/ATS L4 games prior to the break

DALLAS
Best: 5-0 ATS as a dog off consecutive wins
Worst: 0-6 ATS as a DD dog off a loss
Trending: Mavs 6-1 ATS L7 division games

DENVER
Best: 6-1 ATS division games vs. foe off loss
Worst: 1-10 SU and 2-8-1 ATS away off DD win
Trending: Nuggets 6-1 SU/ATS L7 games prior to the break

DETROIT
Best: 11-1 ATS vs. .600 greater foes
Worst: 0-3 ATS vs. foe with 3+ rest
Trending: Pistons 3-14 ATS prior to the break

GOLDEN STATE
Best: 5-0 SU/ATS off loss 15 or more
Worst: 0-4 ATS vs. non-conference foes off BB wins
Trending: 4-8-1 ATS L13 games prior to the break (1-5 away)

HOUSTON
Best: 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS away off win 20 or more
Worst: 0-4 ATS following 3-0 SU/ATS wins
Trending: Rockets won 14 of L15 games prior to the break, including L10

INDIANA
Best: 4-0 ATS away following a loss of 14 or more points
Worst: 0-4 ATS vs. non-rested foe
Trending: Pacers 0-5 ATS against L5 foes off DD SU/ATS win

LA CLIPPERS
Best: 7-1 ATS as favorites in division games
Worst: 1-5 ATS on-rested foes off a SU favorite loss
Trending: Clippers 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS L7 games prior to the break

LA LAKERS
Best: 7-1 ATS home against .666 greater foes
Worst: 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS with no rest vs. .400 foes
Trending: Lakers 12-7 SU and 13-6 ATS L19 game prior to the break

MEMPHIS
Best: 5-1 ATS as dogs off DD win
Worst: 0-4 SU/ATS as RFs
Trending: Grizzlies 0-8 SU L8 away prior to the break

MIAMI
Best: 4-0-1 ATS off BB SU/ATS losses
Worst: 0-6 ATS off BB wins, last DD win
Trending: Heat 1-7 SU L8 games prior to the break

MILWAUKEE
Best: 6-1 ATS off BB losses vs. foe off a win
Worst: 1-5 ATS HFs more than 7
Trending: 9-3 SU L12 games before the break

MINNESOTA
Best: 4-0 SU/ATS with revenge vs. non-rested foes
Worst: 1-7-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes off BBSU/ATS losses
Trending: Wolves 0-5 ATS L5 games prior to the break

NEW ORLEANS
Best: 6-1 ATS as dogs against foes off a SU favorite loss
Worst: 2-8 ATS vs. foes off win 13 or more
Trending: Pelicans 3-0 SU/ATS prior to the break

NEW YORK
Best: 3-0 ATS vs. non-rested non-conference foes
Worst: 0-4 ATS vs. sub .250 foes
Trending: Knicks 0-6 SU/ATS L6 game prior to the break

OKLAHOMA CITY
Best: 4-0 off BB wins vs. foes off SU favorite loss
Worst: lost league-high 23 games SU as favorites
Trending: Thunder 3-6 SU/ATS L9 games prior to the break

ORLANDO
Best: 7-1 ATS as DD RDs
Worst: 1-5 ATS division games vs. foes off DD loss
Trending: Magic 13-3 ATS L16 games prior to the break

PHILADELPHIA
Best: 8-0 ATS home off a win vs. foe off SU/ATS loss
Worst: 0-4 ATS vs. division foes off a win
Trending: Sixers 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS L5 games prior to the break

PHOENIX
Best: 4-1 ATS off DD loss vs. foes off BB wins
Worst: 1-7 ATS as dogs vs. foes off SU dog win
Trending: Suns 1-12 SU prior to the break

PORTLAND
Best: 4-1 ATS vs. greater than .717 foes
Worst: 0-3-1 ATS as favorites of more than 8
Trending: Blazers 9-3-2 ATS L14 games prior to the break

SACRAMENTO
Best: 3-0 ATS vs. non-conference foes off BB SU/ATS losses
Worst: 1-9 ATS as dogs vs. foes off DD loss
Trending: Kings 3-0 ATS L3 games prior to the break

SAN ANTONIO
Best: 7-0-1 ATS as DD favorites
Worst: 0-5 ATS away off BB SU/ATS wins
Trending: Spurs 2-5 SU/ATS L7 games prior to the break

TORONTO
Best: 5-0 ATS as dogs of 4 or more
Worst: 1-6 ATS off a win vs. foes off SU dog wins
Trending: Raptors 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS L8 games prior to the break

UTAH
Best: 6-0 ATS as dogs off BB wins
Worst: 0-5 ATS off DD loss vs. foes off DD wins
Trending: Jazz 11-0 SU L11 games prior to the break

WASHINGTON
Best: 4-0 ATS as dogs off BB losses
Worst: 1-6 home vs. foe off DD ATS loss
Trending: Wizards 7-2 SU/ATS L9 games prior to the break

Keep an Eye On:

The teams that have responded exceptionally well in same season revenge affairs this season including the Celtics (6-1 SU/ATS) and the Timberwolves (6-2-2 ATS).

On the flip side, teams that have struggled mightily in these same payback situations include the Thunder (2-11 ATS) , the Pistons (3-9-1 ATS) , and the Spurs (2-6 SU/ATS) .

I’ve done my homework. Now, you do yours and we’ll both enjoy the 2nd half of the season.

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Thursday
February 21, 2018

After taking a week off for the All-Star break, the NBA returns Thursday with six games and that includes a nationally televised double-header on TNT. Even though the last quarter of the season might lack drama from a playoff chase perspective, there are plenty of opportunities that will feature situational spots for bettors.

VegasInsider.com senior handicapper Marc Lawrence did a great job identifying 2nd Half Trends to Watch for all 30 teams. Along with checking out that piece, be sure to keep an eye on Andy Iskoe’s Daily Betting Report. Unlike other sites that automatically spew out meaningless percentages of who will win, this resource provides score predictions that often lean to the underdogs.

I’ve decided pushing out some “Fearless Predictions” in my weekly pieces for the remainder of the season after a few users inquired. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Opening Odds per BookMaker.eu

(Straight Up – SU, Against the Spread – ATS)

Brooklyn (19-40 SU, 33-25 ATS) at Charlotte (24-33 SU, 22-31-4 ATS)

Opening Odds: Hornets -7 ½, Total 213 ½

The first game on the board isn’t an easy one to handicap knowing Brooklyn closed the first-half with a 1-11 record (4-8 ATS). Meanwhile, Charlotte finished 2-4 and it failed to cover in any of the six games. The Hornets have been much better at home (15-15 SU, 14-16 ATS) this season and that includes a 14-8 record when listed as favorites. Brooklyn has dropped five in a row on the road but it has been a decent investment for bettors as visitors (8-19 SU, 17-10 ATS) despite the losing record. Charlotte has owned this series recently, going 8-2 in the last 10 encounters yet Brooklyn has managed to produce an 8-2 record ATS over this span. This will be the first meeting between the pair this season.

New York (23-36 SU, 28-31 ATS) at Orlando (18-39 SU, 28-29 ATS)

Opening Odds: Magic -3, Total 211

The Magic have gone 2-0 both SU and ATS against the Knicks this season, which includes a 112-99 home win on Nov. 8 as an 8 ½-point favorite. I thought this opener would be a little bit higher with the Magic frontcourt expected to get a boost on Thursday with possible return of Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. The early money was bet on Orlando and it makes sense with New York mired in an eight-game losing skid (1-7 ATS). The loss of Kristaps Porzingis (knee) for the season has changed the identity of this team and the defense is a mess right now. Even when the All-Star was in the lineup, New York was terrible on the road (7-24 SU, 12-19 ATS). Orlando owns a very respectable 13-3 ATS mark in its last 16 games but the club was listed as an underdog in 15 of those contests. With all that being said, backing Orlando as a home favorite hasn’t been profitable (3-5 SU, 1-7 ATS) this season. The only winning ticket for the club as a 'home chalk' came in the aforementioned meeting against New York back in November.

Washington (33-24 SU, 27-30 ATS) at Cleveland (34-22 SU, 18-37-1 ATS)

Opening Odds: Cavaliers -5, Total 220

The new-look Cavaliers went into the break with four consecutive wins and covers plus the ‘over’ connected in all four as well. What’s more impressive is that three of the wins came as underdogs to playoff teams in the Timberwolves, Celtics and Thunder, the last two on the road. Washington is certainly on the same level with that trio and it has produced a 7-2 record both SU and ATS with All-Star John Wall out of the lineup. During this span, the team has gone 5-1 on the road. The Cavaliers have won and covered five of their last six encounters against the Wizards which includes a pair of wins (130-122, 106-99) this season, both of them taking place away from home. Believing that the All-Star break will slow down the momentum for the Cavs is a very fair argument but I don’t blame you for riding the wave either. Cleveland will likely be favored in its next 13 games and six of the upcoming seven are at home. As bad as the team has been for the betting public, things do have a way of balancing out in the end. TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 8:05 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia (30-25 SU, 31-24 ATS) at Chicago (20-37 SU, 30-25-2 ATS)

Opening Odds: 76ers -5, Total 214 ½

This will be the third and final meeting between the pair this season. The first two matchups were split with the 76ers winning 115-101 at home on Jan. 24 before the Bulls took a 117-115 decision on Dec. 18 from the United Center. Philadelphia finished up the first-half with five straight wins but they all came at home, where they’ve won 11 in a row at the Wells Fargo Center. On the road, much different story! The 76ers have gone 1-5 in their last six and that includes a run of four consecutive setbacks. When laying points as a visitor, Philadelphia is just 4-5 both SU and ATS and the point-spread hasn’t mattered which could have you leaning Chicago money-line. However, you could be hesitant to back the Bulls knowing they’re 7-13 SU and 10-9-1 ATS as home ‘dogs this season. Also, this team has gone 6-26 this season without forward Nikola Mirotic in the lineup and he was traded in late January to New Orleans.

Oklahoma City (33-26 SU, 24-34-1 ATS) at Sacramento (18-39 SU, 25-29-3 ATS)

Opening Odds: Thunder -7 ½, Total 213

Oklahoma City continues to live on its reputation as a contender while continuing to burn bettors, especially on the road (13-16 SU, 12-17-1 ATS). When laying points away, the team has gone 9-14 SU and 8-15 ATS. Toss in the fact that the Kings have gone 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS versus the Thunder this season and you might be leaning to the ‘dog tonight. That record for Sacramento includes a 94-86 win on Nov. 7 as a 10 ½-point home underdog over OKC. The Kings closed the first-half of the season with a 3-0 mark ATS but those results came on the road. For whatever reason, the Kings have gone 2-8 both SU and ATS in their last eight at the Golden 1 Center and they’ve allowed 117 PPG in the losses. If you’re backing Sacramento, hope for an off night from OKC. Eleven of the 18 wins by the Kings have come when they’ve held teams under 100 points.

L.A. Clippers (30-26 SU, 31-25 ATS) at Golden State (44-14 SU, 26-31 ATS)

Opening Odds: Warriors -11, Total 233

Laying double digits is nothing new for Golden State, who has gone 24-5 SU and 14-14-1 ATS in that role this season. They closed the first-half with a 3-1 mark and all three victories came as favorites of 10-plus points. The Clippers did upset the Warriors 125-106 on Jan. 10 as 12-point road underdogs, cashing money-line tickets as high as 6/1 odds. Lou Williams scored a career-high 50 points as Los Angeles snapped a 12-game losing streak to Golden State. During that run prior to the loss, the Warriors covered eight of those wins and nine of the victories were by double digits. Los Angeles has gone 5-2 since it traded Blake Griffin to Detroit and the ‘under’ has produced a 6-1 mark in those games. Coincidentally these teams played right after the All-Star break last season and Golden State (-13 ½) beat the Clippers 123-113 but failed to cover. In 2016, Golden State was treated with a 137-105 blowout loss at Portland right after the break. Will we see another lackluster effort in this spot? The Warriors do enter this game off a loss and they’ve only dropped two straight games once all season. Total bettors should note that the 'under' has gone 6-0 in Golden State's last six games with a total closing in the 230s. Tip-off is slated for 10:35 p.m. ET with TNT providing national coverage.

Fearless Predictions

Charlotte -7 ½ vs. Brooklyn

I’m not a huge fan of the Hornets, but they’re a bully and more than half of their wins (13-6) have come against teams below .500. The Nets are ranked second in 3-pointers attempted, but unfortunately they’re ranked 28th in 3-pointers made. The only way Brooklyn stays in this game is if they shoot a high percentage from distance because they’re awful defensively and they have no depth whatsoever. I’ll play the percentages and take the favorite.

Over 76ers-Bulls 214 ½

While digging up numbers on the 76ers, I noticed that Philadelphia is 8-1 to the ‘over’ when listed as a road favorite, averaging 110.7 PPG. If you recall, Chicago was a great ‘under’ bet in the beginning of the season but that’s changed and the defense has only held one team under 100 in 2018. The Bulls have been rolling the ball out lately with their young guards (LaVine and Dunne) and they shoot a ton of bombs (30.9) from 3-point land, ranked 7th. Keep an eye on Chicago’s totals as I expect the numbers to start roaming into the neighborhood of the 220s in the final quarter of the season.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA knowledge

Thursday’s NBA

Nets lost seven of their last eight games with the Hornets, but they covered their last five visits to Charlotte. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Brooklyn lost its last seven games; they’re 15-5 in last 20 games as road underdogs. Four of their last six rod games stayed under the total. Hornets lost four of their last five games; they’re 6-4 in last 10 games as home favorites. Three of their last four games stayed under.

Orlando/New York split their last 10 games; Knicks are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Magic Kingdom. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games. New York lost its last eight games; they’re 1-5 in last six tries as road underdogs. Eight of their last ten games stayed under. Orlando lost its last three games; they’re 1-7 as home favorites this season. Four of their last five games stayed under the total.

Cavaliers won five of last six games with Washington; road team won last five series games. Wizards covered three of last four visits to Cleveland. Three of last four series games went over. Wizards won seven of their last nine games; they’re 10-3 as road underdogs. Seven of their last ten games went over. Cleveland won/covered its last four games; they’re 7-17 as home favorites. Cavs’ last four games went over.

76ers lost eight of last ten games with Chicago; they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five visits to the Windy City. Seven of last ten series games went over. Sixers won their last five games; they’re 4-4 vs spread as road favorites. Five of their last seven games stayed under. Bulls lost eight of their last ten games; they’re 10-9 as home underdogs. Seven of their last ten games went under the total.

Thunder won three of last four games with the Kings; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Sacramento. Last three series games stayed under. Oklahoma City lost six of its last nine games; they’re 7-14 as road favorites. Last three Thunder games went over total. Sacramento lost five of its last seven games; they’re 2-10 in last dozen games as home underdogs. Three of their last four games went over.

Warriors won nine of last ten games with the Clippers but lost to LA in last meeting Jan 10; Clippers are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Oakland. Last six series games went over total. Clippers won seven of their last nine games; they’re 9-3 in last 12 games as road underdogs. Eight of their last nine games stayed under. Golden State split its last six games but won three in row at home. Warriors are 13-14-2 as home favorites. Over is 3-1 in their last four games.