AlanCashman.com Daily Plays Thread

[AlanCashman]

MLB
Houston at Toronto 3:07 pm
Urquidy vs Stripling

Pick: HOU -105 First 5 Innings LEAN


Urquidy 1.62 ERA last 3 starts
Urquidy 2.45 ERA last 7 starts
Urquidy 3.27 ERA in road starts
TOR batting .185 vs Urquidy

Stripling 5.93 ERA last 3 starts
Stripling 6.30 ERA last 7 starts
Stripling 5.40 ERA in home starts
HOU batting .364 vs Stripling

HOU 6-2 last 8 at TOR
TOR 2-7 last 9 home games



MLB
Minnesota at Kansas City 4:10 pm
Berrios vs Minor

Pick: KC Over 3.5 LEAN


Kansas City is hitting the ball right now and have hit Berrios in the past. They need 4 runs for us today with the wind blowing out around 11 mph.

Berrios allowed 4 or more runs in 4 of last 5 starts vs KC
Berrios 6.26 ERA last 5 starts vs KC
Berrios 4.67 Career ERA at Kauffman Stadium
Berrios 4.29 ERA in day starts this season
Berrios 4.55 ERA career in road starts
MIN bullpen 5.21 ERA on the road

KC scored 4 or more runs last 6 vs MIN
KC scored 4 or more runs last 7 overall

[AlanCashman]

Sunday MLB

MLB
Miami at Pittsburgh 1:05 pm
Alcantara vs Kuhl

Pick: PIT Over 3.5 (+100) SMALL


Alcantara 4.85 ERA in 2 career starts vs PIT
Alcantara 5.48 ERA in road games this season
PIT batting .400, .633 SLG vs Alcantara
MIA bullpen 5.28 ERA last 10 games
PIT scored 4 runs or more in 7 straight vs MIA and in 9 of last 10 meetings
PIT scored at least 4 runs in 6 of last 8 overall

[AlanCashman]

Sunday MLB Pick #2

MLB
LA Dodgers at Atlanta 1:20
Bauer vs Fried

Pick: LA -126 LEAN

LA 9 for 19, .474 avg, .789 SLG vs Fried
ATL bullpen 5.49 ERA last 10 games
Fried 5.35 ERA last 7 starts
Bauer 2..54 ERA on the road
ATL 3-8 last 11 Sunday games
LA 37-17 last 54 vs ATL

[AlanCashman]

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Saturday MLB



MLB

Seattle at Cleveland 4:10 pm

Kikuchi vs McKenzie


Pick: SEA (-120) First 5 Innings/ LEAN


Kikuchi 3.14 ERA last 7 starts

McKenzie 7.45 ERA last 7 starts


Kikuchi 3.71 ERA in road starts

McKenzie 8.27 ERA in home starts


McKenzie has allowed 5 or more runs in 4 of his last 6 starts


CLE batting .189 at home vs LHP

[AlanCashman]

MLB

Cincinnati at Milwaukee 8:10

Gutierrez vs Lauer


Pick: CIN +0.5 First 5 Innings (-114) LEAN



Opponents batting .183, SLG .250 vs Gutierrez


Lauer 6.19 ERA at home, 5.19 ERA at night

Lauer 7.12 ERA last 7 starts





MLB

San Diego at Colorado 8:40 pm

Lamet vs Gomber


Pick: Under 11.5 (-114) LEAN


9 of last 10 meetings have finished Under 11.5

Gomber 1.33 ERA at home

Gomber allowed a total of 2 runs in 11.1 IP vs SD this season


SD batting .196 last 10 vs LHP

Lamet 3.28 ERA last 5 vs COL

[AlanCashman]

We hit both Subscriber Picks last night. 2 MLB Subscriber Plays posted for Tuesday


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MLB

Baltimore at Cleveland 7:10 pm

Harvey vs Quantrill


Pick: CLE Over 4.5 (-127) LEAN


I don’t do a lot of Over 4.5 run totals but a lot of good stuff here


Harvey 11.79 ERA last 7 starts

Harvey 12.86 ERA last 2 starts vs CLE

Opponents have scored 5 or more runs in 6 of last 7 starts by Harvey

Opponents batting .314 vs Harvey this season

Harvey 7.90 ERA in road starts this season

Harvey 7.15 ERA in night starts this season

BAL bullpen 5.04 ERA last 10 games

CLE batting .285 last 10 games vs RHP





MLB

Minnesota at Seattle 10:10 pm

Happ vs Flexen


Pick: SEA over 3.5 (-124) Small



Happ 8.37 ERA last 7 starts

Happ 7.46 ERA in road starts this season

Happ 7.58 ERA in night starts this season

Happ allowed 5 HR In last 2 starts

MIN bullpen 6.18 ERA last 10 games

SEA scored 4 or more runs in 8 of last 9 meetings

Opponents have scored 4 or more runs in Happ’s last 7 starts

[tim david]

how Christian eriksen collapsed and almost died at the football pitch


https://shrinke.me/cJe3LXO

[AlanCashman]

MLB

Cincinnati at Minnesota 8:10

Mahle vs Happ


Pick : Reds -113 LEAN


Cin 13-3 in Mahle’s Last 13 Road starts

Cin 16-5 in Mahle’s last 21 starts

Cin bullpen 3.94 ERA last 10


Min 5.90 ERA last 10

Happ 8.02 ERA in night games

Happ 9.84 ERA last 7 starts

[AlanCashman]

MLB

Colorado at Milwaukee 2:10 pm

Gonzalez vs Lauer


Pick: COL Over 3.5 (-124) LEAN


Lauer 10.50 ERA last 3 starts

Lauer 7.20 ERA last 5 starts vs COL

COL batting .277 vs LHP last 10 games

Opponents have scored 5 or more runs in 8 of last 10 starts by Lauer

[AlanCashman]

MLB

LA Dodgers at Washington 7:05 pm

Urias vs Scherzer


PICK: WAS First 5 Innings +0.5 LEAN


LA batting .169 vs Scherzer

WAS batting .340 vs Urias


Urias 5.35 ERA last 7 starts

Scherzer 2.19 ERA last 7 starts

Scherzer 1.64 ERA last 5 starts vs LA

[AlanCashman]

MLB

Milwaukee at NY Mets 7:10

Woodruff vs Megill


Pick: MIL -125 LEAN


Megill may keep it close early but I think the Brewers will get to the Mets bullpen late


Woodruff 2.25 ERA in last 7 starts

Woodruff 1.48 ERA in road starts

Woodruff 2.16 ERA in night games


MIL batting .284 last 10 vs RHP

NYM batting .207 last 10 vs RHP


MIL 8-1 last 9 vs NYM

MIL won 9 of last 10 games overall


MIL bullpen 2.06 ERA last 10 games

NYM bullpen 5.23 ERA last 10 games

[AlanCashman]

Tuesday 7/6 MLB

2 MLB Plays added

MLB
Milwaukee at NY Mets 7:10 pm
Anderson vs deGrom

Pick: MIL Over 2.5 (+106) LEAN


Milwaukee has only scored 2 runs over the last 2 games. The Brewers had scored 5 or more runs in 7 of the previous 8 games.

There are some numbers that I think might be worth taking a small look at for Milwaukee to score at least 3 runs tonight vs deGrom. Not going to go crazy with the $ when there is an angle against deGrom.

The Brewers team total for Tuesday is O/U 2.5.

deGrom has allowed 4 or more runs in each of the last 4 starts vs Milwaukee (Mets have lost the last 3 of those)

Brewers roster batting .309 vs deGrom.

Mets bullpen 5.18 ERA last 10 games

MIL 8-2 last 10 meetings






MLB

NY Yankees at Seattle 10:10 pm

Taillon vs Sheffield



Pick: SEA Over 3.5 (-129) LEAN



Taillon has not been consistent and the Yankees bullpen has not been sharp recently. It is reasonable that the Mariners get to 4 runs tonight



Opponents batting .385, SLG .628 vs Taillon in road starts this season

Taillon 11.12 ERA in road starts this season

Taillon 5.93 ERA in night games this season

Taillon 5.06 ERA last 7 starts

NYY bullpen 6.16 ERA last 10 games, 8.14 ERA last 3 games

SEA has scored 4 or more runs in 4 of last 5 games

[AlanCashman]

MLB

San Francisco at LA Dodgers 10:10 pm

Webb vs Urias


PICK: SF +145 LEAN PICK: SF Over 3.5 (-115) LEAN


I’m not going crazy here against Urias but there are some things here that warrant going with Giants as dogs tonight.



Webb allowed 1 run in 5 IP in last start at LA on 5/29, allowed 2 runs or less in his 2 starts career at LA .

Webb 3.49 ERA in night games this season

Webb allowed 2 runs or less in each of last 5 starts

SF batting .312 last 10 games vs LHP

SF 16-5 last 21 WED games


LA bullpen 4.75 ERA last 10 games

SF roster batting .316 vs Urias

SF has scored 11, 5 and 10 runs in their last 3 games Urias has started against them

Urias allowed 3 or more runs in 5 of his last 7 starts

[AlanCashman]

MLB

Detroit at Kansas City

Peralta vs Bubic


Pick: DET +0.5 First 5 Innings (-130) LEAN


Though they have been better recently, I am still not ready to ride with the Tiger’s pen as a recommended Playl



-DET batting .342 vs Bubic

-Bubic has allowed 4 or more runs in 5 straight starts

-Peralata allowed 1 run or less in 5 straight starts

-Peralta 2.31 road ERA

-DET 7-2 last 9 meetings

-DET batting .363 vs LHP last 10 games

[AlanCashman]

MLB

Toronto at Boston

Hatch at Pivetta


Pick: TOR +0.5 First 5 Innings (-104) LEAN


Don’t know a lot about Hatch as a MLB Pitcher but has been good in the minors. Red Sox hitters are 1 for 12 against him.


Pivetta has trouble vs TOR. He’s allowed 15 runs in 3 starts vs the Blue Jays this season. TOR is batting .379 and Slugging .712 vs Pivetta in their career.



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