AlanCashman.com Daily Plays Thread

[AlanCashman]

Off of a 3-0-1 Tue.

Took Baltimore +116 this afternoon, in progress

Adding Bettors Chat back into post rotation. 3 MLB Plays for tonight

MLB
Diamondbacks at Marlins 6:40
Weaver vs Detwiler (Opener?)

Pick: MIA Over 3.5 SMALL

Lopez was original listed starter for Miami, which made me like the Marlins but going with the potential Opener role for Detwiler keeps me off of Miami, but I do think it is very reasonable that the Marlins can get to Weaver and this bad Arizona bullpen to score 4 runs

Weaver has allowed 5 HR in 25.2 IP this season
Weaver 5.25 ERA last 7 starts
Weaver 1-9, 6.58 ERA last season
Weaver has allowed 3 or more runs in 6 of last 7 starts
ARI bullpen 11.37 ERA last 3 games
ARI bullpen 7.68 ERA last 7 games
Opponent have scored 5 or more runs in 3 of Weaver’s last 4 starts
Weaver 1.286 WHIP this season


MLB
Braves at Nationals 7:05
Fried vs Fedde

Pick: Nats Over 3.5 SMALL

Fried has struggled vs this National team. He has a 6.45 ERA over his last 5 starts vs WAS and the Nationals are batting .450 while Slugging .675 vs the Braves lefty.

ATL bullpen 28th in MLB in WHIP
WAS batting .305 vs LHP this season, #2 in MLB


MLB
Astros at Yankees 7:05
Garcia vs Montgomery

Pick: HOU +0.5 First 5 Innings

Montgomery has a 5.01 ERA in his last 3 starts vs HOU, he only went 1 inning and did not exit due to performance in one of those, so basically just 2 starts.

HOU slugging .704 vs Montgomery
Montgomery 4.91 ERA last 7 starts
Montgomery has allowed 3 or more runs in 3 of last 4 and 5 of last 7 starts
Montgomery has a 7.20 ERA in the 1st inning and a 5.40 ERA in the 2nd inning this season



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MLB
Blue Jays at Braves 12:20 pm
Stripling vs Morton

Pick: TOR Over 3.5 (-115) LEAN

TOR scored 4 or more runs in 9 of last 10 games
TOR batting .308 vs Morton
TOR scored 4 or more runs in all 5 games vs ATL this season
Morton allowed 4 or more runs in 4 of his last 5 starts
Morton 5.33 ERA last 5 vs TOR

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MLB
Yankees at Orioles
Kluber vs Kremer

PICK: NYY -174 LEAN

BAL 5-13 at home
Kremer 9.49 ERA at home, 3.29 ERA on the road

Kluber 3.07 ERA last 7 starts
Kluber 3-0, 2.45 ERA last 5 starts vs BAL
NYY 21-6 last 27 at BAL



MLB
Indians at Mariners 10:10
Civale vs Flexen

Pick: CLE -113 LEAN

Indians have won 9 of 10. I still think Flexen is who I thought he was coming into this season. Despite a couple of good starts, Flexen has allowed 40 hits in his 33.1 IP this season.

Indians are not killing the ball so downgraded to a LEAN.

Civale has been strong for the Tribe, 5-0, 2.91 ERA last 7 starts

SEA bullpen 6.63 ERA last 10 games

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MLB
SF at PIT 1:05 pm
Wood vs Keller

Pick: SF -165 First 5 LEAN

Wood has allowed 2 or fewer runs in last 5 starts
Keller 7.81 ERA this season
PIT batting .170 vs LHP last 10 games



MLB
CHC at Det 1:10 pm
Hendricks vs Boyd

Pick: DET +0.5 (-130) First 5 LEAN

Hendricks has allowed 6 or more runs in 3 of his last 5 starts
Hendricks 6.23 ERA last 7 starts
Cubs 4-9 last 13 at DET

Boyd 1.94 ERA last 7 starts
DET won 5 of last 6 overall
DET batting .286 last 10 games

[AlanCashman]

Another Sunday play


MLB
OAK at MIN 2:10
Bassitt vs Maeda

Pick: OAK +105 LEAN

Going with the A’s as a slight dog here


Maeda allowed 7 runs in 3 IP in first start against OAK this season
Maeda has allowed 8 HR in last 33.1 IP
MIN bullpen 5.82 ERA last 10 games

Bassitt has allowed only 2 runs in each of his last 6 starts
OAK 40-18 last 58 vs MIN

[AlanCashman]

MLB
Pirates at Cardinals 7:45 pm
Cahill vs Flaherty

Pick: STL -1.5 (+102) LEAN

STL batting .368 vs Cahill
STL -1.5 has won in all 4 meetings this season
STL won 12-5 on May 1 when these 2 pitchers faced each other

PIT batting .195 vs Flaherty


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Sunday 5/23

MLB
Mets at Marlins 1:10 pm
Yamamoto vs Poteet

Pick: MIA Over 3.5 (-122) LEAN

Marlins are not killing the ball right now but I see enough to go with them to get to at least 4 runs today

Yamamoto 6.12 ERA in 18 career starts
NYM bullpen 5.57 ERA last 10 games
NYM bullpen 4.94 ERA on the road
Opponents have scored 4 or more runs in 9 of last 10 games Yamamoto has started

[AlanCashman]

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MLB
Blue Jays at Yankees 7:05
Matz vs Kluber

Pick: NYY -172 LEAN

NYY batting .348, SLG .698 vs Matz
Matz 7.18 ERA last 5 starts vs NYY
Matz 5.80 ERA last 7 starts
Matz 5.80 ERA in night games this season
TOR bullpen 6.20 ERA last 10 games

Kluber 2.45 ERA last 7 starts
Kluber 2.01 ERA at home this season
Kluber 2.39 ERA in night games this season



MLB
Indians at Tigers 7:10
Civale vs Skubal

Pick: CLE -132 LEAN

Civale 4-0 , 2.80 ERA last 5 vs DET
CLE batting .303 last 10 games vs LHP
CLE slugging .650 vs Skubal

Skubal 6.94 ERA in 3 starts vs CLE
Skubal 5.85 ERA last 7 starts
Skubal 3.27 ERA in day games, 6.35 ERA in night games

In his last 8 starts, Skubal has allowed exactly 2 runs in starts only to follow that start by allowing 4 or more runs. He allowed 2 runs in his last start.

CLE 37-14 last 51 at DET

[AlanCashman]

MLB
Rangers at Mariners 10:10 pm
Foltynewicz vs Dunn

Pick: SEA -115 LEAN

-Foltynewicz allowed 3 or more runs in 3 of last 4 starts
-Foltynewicz 6.31 ERA in night games this season. 4.80 career ERA at night, 3.09 in day games
-Dunn 3-0, 2.00 ERA in 3 starts vs TEX last season
-TEX 5-17 last 22 at SEA





MLB
Padres at Astros 4:10
Darvish vs Odorizzi

PICK: SD -145 LEAN

Darvish 1.23 ERA last 7 starts
HOU batting .200 vs Darvish (13 for 65)

Odorizzi 7.89 ERA last 7 starts
HOU bullpen 5.45 ERA last 10 games

[AlanCashman]

MLB
LA Angels at Giants 4:05
Bundy vs Cueto

Pick: SF -145 LEAN


Bundy 7.49 ERA last 7 games
LAA bullpen 4.89 ERA last 10 games
LAA 2-8 last 10 meetings

Cueto 3-0, 1.35 ERA last 5 starts vs LAA
SF bullpen 2.96 home
SF 7-2 last 9 games following a win

[AlanCashman]

MLB
Det at Chw 8:10
Mize vs Lynn

Pick: Under 8 (-105) LEAN


8 or fewer total runs in 9 of last 10 starts by Mize
Mize 2.72 ERA at night
Mize has allowed 3 or fewer runs in all 3 games vs CHW
Det bullpen 2.48 ERA last 10 games

Lynn 1.46 ERA at home
CHW bullen 1.73 ERA last 10 games





MLB
Min at KC 8:10
Happ vs Bubic

KC -108 LEAN

Happ 5.73 ERA last 7 starts
Happ 7.08 ERA on the road
Happ 7.32 ERA at night

Bubic 2.31 ERA last 7 starts
Bubic 1.02 ERA at home
Bubic 0.51 ERA at night






MLB
Cin at STL 8:15
Gutierrez vs Wainwright

CIN Over 3.5 (-112) LEAN

CIN has scored 4 or more runs in 9 of last 10 games Wainwright has started against them

STL bullpen 4.99 ERA last 10 games
Wainwright 7.36 ERA last 5 starts vs CIN
Wainwright 5.35 career ERA vs CIN in 35 games





MLB
Sea at LAA 9:38
Sheffield vs Canning

Pick: LAA (-160) First 5 Innings LEAN

Don’t trust the Angel’s bullpen so going with LA first 5 innings

Sheffield 6.75 ERA on the road
Sheffield 5.06 ERA last 3 starts
Sheffield 5.62 ERA at night
Sheffield allowed 10 runs in 2 starts at LAA last season

Canning 3-0, 3.28 ERA at night, 1-3, 8,80 ERA in day starts
Canning 1-0, 1.47 ERA in 3 starts vs SEA

LAA batting .280 at home vs LHP






MLB
CHC at SF 9:45
Davies vs DeSclafani

Cubs Over 3.5 (-128) LEAN

Wanted to back the Cubs on the moneyline tonight but Davies’ numbers at night and on the road are not good despite pretty good numbers overall.

Wind blowing out at 11 mph

SF has allowed 4 or more runs in 6 of last 7 games, 8 of last 10
CHC scored 4 or more runs in 4 of last 5 games, 7 of last 10

DeSclafani 6.19 career ERA in SF
CHC slugging .678 vs DeSclafani
CHC scored 4 or more runs in 6 of last 7 vs SF

Davies 2.63 ERA last 5 starts vs SF
Davies 2.83 ERA last 7 starts

[AlanCashman]

MLB
Reds at Cardinals 8:15
Castillo vs Kim

Pick: STL -139


Castillo 7.81 ERA last 5 starts vs STL
Castillo 7.91 ERA last 7 starts
Castillo 0-4, 8.74 ERA on the road
Castillo 0-3, 8.31 ERA at night

Kim 3-0, 0.54 ERA in 3 starts vs CIN
Kim 1.84 ERA at home this season
Kim 2.70 ERA at night