AlanCashman.com Daily Plays Thread

[AlanCashman]

Friday 8/13


Going with Marlins Over 3.5 tonight . -110 is a good number given some of trends below


MLB

Chicago Cubs at Miami 7:10 pm

Alzolay vs Luzardo


Pick: MIA Over 3.5 (-110)


Alzolay 5.06 Road ERA

Alzolay 5.29 ERA in night games

Alzolay has allowed 3 or more runs in 8 of last 10 starts

Cubs bullpen 7.02 ERA last 10 games

Cubs have allowed 4 or more runs in 9 of last 10 games

MIA has scored 4 or more runs in 7 of last 10 games


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[AlanCashman]

MLB
Detroit at Baltimore 7:05
Mize vs Akin
Pick: DET -124 LEAN

Mize 3.58 Road ERA
Akin 6.41 ERA at Home

Mize 3.48 ERA last 7 starts
Akin 9.93 ERA last 7 starts

DET bullpen 1.23 ERA last 10 games
BAL bullpen 11.76 ERA last 10 games

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[AlanCashman]

MLB

Tampa at Baltimore 1:05 pm

Wacha vs Lopez


Pick: BAL Over 3.5 Small


Wacha 6.15 ERA in road games

Wacha 6.43 ERA last 4 starts vs BAL

BAL batting .367, SLG .796 vs Wacha

[AlanCashman]

MLB

Seattle at NY Yankees 1:05 pm

Flexen vs Heaney


Pick: SEA Over 3.5 LEAN




Seattle bats are far from on fire but facing Heaney may be what they

need to wake up.SEA batting .333, SLG .656 vs Heaney

Heaney has allowed 3 or more runs in 6 of his last 7 starts

Heaney has a 7.13 ERA in his last 7 starts

Heaney has allowed 4 runs in each of his 2 starts vs SEA this season

Opponents have scored 4 or more runs in 7 of last 8 starts by Heaney



MLB

Boston at Toronto 3:07 pm GAME 1 (7 innings)

Pivetta vs Ray


Pick: TOR Over 3.5 SMALL


Pivetta has struggled vs Toronto. The Jays just need 4 runs.


Pivetta 7.39 ERA last 5 starts vs TOR

Pivetta 5.39 ERA in day games

Pivetta has allowed 4 or more runs in each of his last 5 starts vs TOR

TOR roster batting .348, SLG 607 vs Pivetta

Pivetta 6.82 career ERA vs TOR


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[AlanCashman]

Tue 8/3

MLB
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Kranick vs Houser

PICK: MIL -1.5 (-115) LEAN

MIL batting .458, SLG .583 vs Kranick
PIT bullpen 6.97 ERA last 10 games
MIL bullpen 2.83 ERA last 10 games
PIT has lost Kranick’s last 3 starts -1.5
MIL has won 7 of Houser’s last 8 starts -1.5
MIL has won Houser’s last 3 starts vs PIT -1.5
MIL has won 9 of last 10 vs PIT -1.5


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[AlanCashman]

Late Add Here

MLB
Baltimore at NY Yankees 7:05
Lopez vs Heaney

PICK: BAL Over 3.5 (+125) LEAN


Orioles Team Total tonight is 3.5 vs Heaney and the Yankees
-Heaney 6.69 ERA last 7 games
-Opponents have scored 4 or more runs on 6 of last 7 starts by Heaney
-Heaney 5.27 ERA in night games
-NYY pen 5.29 ERA last 10 games
Taking Orioles Orioles Over 3.5 (+125)

[AlanCashman]

MLB
Seattle at Texas 2:35 pm
Gonzales vs Foltynewicz


Pick: TEX Over 3.5 (-115) LEAN


Gonzales 6.29 ERA on the road

Gonzales 6.43 ERA last 5 starts vs TEX

Gonzales 5.91 ERA last 7 starts

Gonzales 1.603 WHIP in road starts

RHB batting .312 vs Gonzales

SEA has allowed 4 or more runs in 8 of last 10 games

TEX roster batting .347, SLG .617 vs Gonzales

TEX has scored 4 or more runs in 5 of last 6 games Gonzales has started against them


MLB

Chicago Cubs at Washington 1:05 pm
Alzolay vs Fedde


Pick: Cubs Over 3.5 (-130) LEAN


Fedde 6.68 ERA last 7 starts

Fedde 5.00 ERA at home

Fedde allowed 3 or more runs in 5 of last 6 starts

WAS bullpen 5.78 ERA last 10 games

[AlanCashman]

MLB

Toronto at Boston

Hatch at Pivetta


Pick: TOR +0.5 First 5 Innings (-104) LEAN


Don’t know a lot about Hatch as a MLB Pitcher but has been good in the minors. Red Sox hitters are 1 for 12 against him.


Pivetta has trouble vs TOR. He’s allowed 15 runs in 3 starts vs the Blue Jays this season. TOR is batting .379 and Slugging .712 vs Pivetta in their career.



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[AlanCashman]

MLB

Detroit at Kansas City

Peralta vs Bubic


Pick: DET +0.5 First 5 Innings (-130) LEAN


Though they have been better recently, I am still not ready to ride with the Tiger’s pen as a recommended Playl



-DET batting .342 vs Bubic

-Bubic has allowed 4 or more runs in 5 straight starts

-Peralata allowed 1 run or less in 5 straight starts

-Peralta 2.31 road ERA

-DET 7-2 last 9 meetings

-DET batting .363 vs LHP last 10 games

[AlanCashman]

MLB

San Francisco at LA Dodgers 10:10 pm

Webb vs Urias


PICK: SF +145 LEAN PICK: SF Over 3.5 (-115) LEAN


I’m not going crazy here against Urias but there are some things here that warrant going with Giants as dogs tonight.



Webb allowed 1 run in 5 IP in last start at LA on 5/29, allowed 2 runs or less in his 2 starts career at LA .

Webb 3.49 ERA in night games this season

Webb allowed 2 runs or less in each of last 5 starts

SF batting .312 last 10 games vs LHP

SF 16-5 last 21 WED games


LA bullpen 4.75 ERA last 10 games

SF roster batting .316 vs Urias

SF has scored 11, 5 and 10 runs in their last 3 games Urias has started against them

Urias allowed 3 or more runs in 5 of his last 7 starts

[AlanCashman]

Tuesday 7/6 MLB

2 MLB Plays added

MLB
Milwaukee at NY Mets 7:10 pm
Anderson vs deGrom

Pick: MIL Over 2.5 (+106) LEAN


Milwaukee has only scored 2 runs over the last 2 games. The Brewers had scored 5 or more runs in 7 of the previous 8 games.

There are some numbers that I think might be worth taking a small look at for Milwaukee to score at least 3 runs tonight vs deGrom. Not going to go crazy with the $ when there is an angle against deGrom.

The Brewers team total for Tuesday is O/U 2.5.

deGrom has allowed 4 or more runs in each of the last 4 starts vs Milwaukee (Mets have lost the last 3 of those)

Brewers roster batting .309 vs deGrom.

Mets bullpen 5.18 ERA last 10 games

MIL 8-2 last 10 meetings






MLB

NY Yankees at Seattle 10:10 pm

Taillon vs Sheffield



Pick: SEA Over 3.5 (-129) LEAN



Taillon has not been consistent and the Yankees bullpen has not been sharp recently. It is reasonable that the Mariners get to 4 runs tonight



Opponents batting .385, SLG .628 vs Taillon in road starts this season

Taillon 11.12 ERA in road starts this season

Taillon 5.93 ERA in night games this season

Taillon 5.06 ERA last 7 starts

NYY bullpen 6.16 ERA last 10 games, 8.14 ERA last 3 games

SEA has scored 4 or more runs in 4 of last 5 games

[AlanCashman]

MLB

Milwaukee at NY Mets 7:10

Woodruff vs Megill


Pick: MIL -125 LEAN


Megill may keep it close early but I think the Brewers will get to the Mets bullpen late


Woodruff 2.25 ERA in last 7 starts

Woodruff 1.48 ERA in road starts

Woodruff 2.16 ERA in night games


MIL batting .284 last 10 vs RHP

NYM batting .207 last 10 vs RHP


MIL 8-1 last 9 vs NYM

MIL won 9 of last 10 games overall


MIL bullpen 2.06 ERA last 10 games

NYM bullpen 5.23 ERA last 10 games

[AlanCashman]

MLB

LA Dodgers at Washington 7:05 pm

Urias vs Scherzer


PICK: WAS First 5 Innings +0.5 LEAN


LA batting .169 vs Scherzer

WAS batting .340 vs Urias


Urias 5.35 ERA last 7 starts

Scherzer 2.19 ERA last 7 starts

Scherzer 1.64 ERA last 5 starts vs LA

[AlanCashman]

MLB

Colorado at Milwaukee 2:10 pm

Gonzalez vs Lauer


Pick: COL Over 3.5 (-124) LEAN


Lauer 10.50 ERA last 3 starts

Lauer 7.20 ERA last 5 starts vs COL

COL batting .277 vs LHP last 10 games

Opponents have scored 5 or more runs in 8 of last 10 starts by Lauer

[AlanCashman]

MLB

Cincinnati at Minnesota 8:10

Mahle vs Happ


Pick : Reds -113 LEAN


Cin 13-3 in Mahle’s Last 13 Road starts

Cin 16-5 in Mahle’s last 21 starts

Cin bullpen 3.94 ERA last 10


Min 5.90 ERA last 10

Happ 8.02 ERA in night games

Happ 9.84 ERA last 7 starts