NFL Playoffs Info

[Spearit]

Many of you wish to get back your money from your recent losses- or plunk down money from your winnings on the NFL playoffs. This is to give all of you a heads up on betting these playoffs.

Starting off - lets see what has happened in the previous playoffs to gain some insight to these playoffs-
Last Year in the playoffs
Let’s consider what transpired during the 2005 NFL playoffs. The Wildcard Round was as zany as it ever gets in the NFL. Three road teams pulled off straight up upsets, including two 8-8 teams. Needless to say, this was a first occurrence of this type. Furthermore, two of the winners came in at more than 6-point underdogs. The divisional round saw a return to normalcy, with all four of the “better” teams emerging victorious, with three of those covering the spread.

Therefore, by the time conference championship weekend rolled around, sportbooks were smiling to the tune of a split among four dogs and four favorites that had won ATS, and what’s more, the one team that had covered both of its games, New York, was not a heavily backed team by the public.

The championship games were both won fairly easily by the favorites, however, one of those, New England, was road chalk against a Pittsburgh team that had won 17 of 18 games on the season. Public sentiment was split down the middle on that game.

Finally, to make matters worse, the rare win, no-cover scenario again reared its ugly head in the Super Bowl, as Philadelphia back-doored its way to an ATS victory. It was the second straight season that the NFC covered but lost, yet only the 5th time that feat occurred in 39 Super Bowl games.

Because of the magnitude of these playoff games, it is unlikely that oddsmakers will make major line errors. With that in mind, value has to be sought out in unfamiliar places.
Perhaps this might be a great time to introduce the thought of wagering on college and pro hoops, or even hockey for that matter instead of butting heads with Vegas on tight lined odds. They have been tough to beat in the playoffs.

In the end however, I consider myself a realist, particularly from a sports betting standpoint, so I fully understand the “need” to have action on the postseason football games. Hopefully what’s below will help you uncover some secrets to the recipe that will make for a profitable NFL playoff run.

[Spearit]

’04 Divisional weekend: For anyone who wagered the games in the divisional round of 2004 and still has his or her blood pressure in-check, hats off to you! The four games produced some of the most thrilling finishes in playoff history, particularly from a betting standpoint. In New England, the Titans rally for a late and meaningless score to backdoor the favored Patriots. In St. Louis, suddenly conservative Mike Martz settles for a tying field goal in the last minute instead of going for the TD with his potent offense. The Panthers get the last laugh however, scoring on a long pass in overtime. Meanwhile, Kansas City sees another postseason berth end brutally, as Colts’ QB Peyton Manning and his offense go an entire day without punting en route to a 38-31 underdog win. Finally, in Philly, the Eagles overcome impossible 4th & 26 odds, and eventually win while failing to cover the spread in overtime in a 20-17 decision over Green Bay.

’03 Wildcard game: In an effort rivaling the Bills-Frank Reich comeback of ’93, the 49ers rally from 24 points down late in the 3rd quarter to upend the Giants 39-38. The game isn’t decided however until a last second field goal attempt by the visiting G-Men gets botched, an ugly and fitting end to the collapse. While the New Yorkers still cover the spread in the game, money line backers of the 3-point underdogs have the rug swept out from under them.

’02 Divisional game: The infamous “Tuck Rule” game. Oakland, in snowy Foxborough, seemingly clinches an upset road win by recovering a Tom Brady fumble late in the 4th quarter. Instant replay and the officials apparently see it differently however, as the play is overturned, resulting in simply an incomplete pass. The Patriots go on to force overtime and win the game while pushing on the number, en route to the first of three Super Bowl titles.

’00 Wildcard game: Dubbed the “Music City Miracle”, Tennessee returns a kickoff for a TD on a trick “lateral” play, erasing a Buffalo win and certain cover with less than 10 seconds to play. The instant replay rules that Frank Wycheck’s pass was supposedly backwards, giving the Titans a 22-16 SU & ATS win and leaving Bills supporters fuming.

’99 Wildcard game: A long TD pass from Steve Young to a sobbing Terrell Owens in the final seconds turns a probable Green Bay win and cover into a 49ers win and ATS push. This coming just a few plays after an obvious Jerry Rice fumble was not reviewed by replay. I heard somewhere since that this was the moment that Terrell Owens became the persona currently known as T.O. If only we could turn back time, right?

’97 Wildcard game: Looking dead and buried in a game at the Meadowlands, Randall Cunningham leads the Vikings to a pair of scores in the final few minutes to turn back the Giants. Aided by an onside kick, Minnesota overturned a dominant Giants performance and left New York enthusiasts wondering “What just happened?”

’95 Divisional game: Host San Diego uses Natrone Means to control almost the entire game, but needs five FG’s from John Carney to secure a 22-21 win over Miami. The game leaves San Diego ATS & Miami money line bettors seething, as the Chargers are unable to cover a measly 1-1/2 point spread. San Diego repays their supporters a week later by pulling off an upset at Pittsburgh in the AFC’s Championship game.

’93 Wildcard game: In one of the most unforgettable playoff games ever, Frank Reich leads Buffalo back from five scores down at a snowy Rich Stadium, to salvage a SU win and ATS push for the Bills over the Oilers. Houston enthusiasts, who probably turned off their TV’s at halftime to go spend their winnings, never knew what hit them.

[Spearit]

Overall Playoff Trends (Super Bowl Games not included)

* Of the 130 playoff games since ’93, the team that wins straight up is 106-18-6 ATS (85.5%)
* Of the 18 win no-cover instances, 7 of them have occurred in the last three years.
* Home teams are 92-38 SU & 69-55-6 ATS since ’93. Of those, NFC home teams have a better record (48-17 SU & 36-26-3 ATS) when compared to the AFC (44-21 SU & 33-29-3 ATS)
* Favorites are 65-55 ATS (54.2%) since ‘93
* The 2004 NFL Playoffs were particularly strong for the road teams, 4-6 SU & 7-3 ATS.
* Home underdogs are 6-4 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff opportunities.
* In terms of Totals, 51.9% of the past 13 years’ playoff games have gone OVER (67-62-1).

[Spearit]

Line/Total Range Patterns
* Home Teams in the +3 to –3 line range are 24-11 SU & 19-12-4 ATS, for 61.3% ATS, a pretty strong success record.
* Conversely, favorites of 3.5 to 6.5 points are just 23-18 SU & 18-22-1 ATS (45%) in the playoffs since ’93, well below the pace set by favorites overall.
* Favorites of 7 points or more are 27-6 SU & 20-13 ATS (60.6%) in the last 13 playoff seasons, including 16-5 SU & 11-9-1 ATS (55.0%) from double digit favorites.
* Regarding totals, two significant range patterns have formed: In totals set over 50, 9 games have gone OVER the total while 6 have gone UNDER (60%). Meanwhile, in totals set at less than 34, 8 games have gone OVER while just 3 have gone UNDER (72.7%).

[Spearit]

Line Movement Patterns
Following or fading line movements can often be a profitable proposition, if followed correctly. In terms of NFL playoff betting, there have been some patterns formed over the past 13 seasons. Before getting into those trends however, it is important to understand the concept of a line move. In general, it is assumed that a line moves towards or away from a team or total when significant money is wagered on that game. If this money is wagered on a favorite, that favorite will generally become an even larger favorite in terms of the spread. If that money is wagered on OVER a total, that posted total will generally rise, and vice versa. In more cases than not, it is public money that is moving these lines. You’ll see from the following trends that the public has not had as good of a feel on sides as they have on totals. In fact, following road team money has been abysmal.
* When lines have opened at a particular point and moved towards the home team, following that line move (betting the home team) would have netted a 31-26-1 ATS (54.4%) record since ’93.
* Following line movements towards a road team (betting the road team) would have resulted in just a 11-24-3 ATS (31.4%) record.
* When posted totals have risen throughout the week leading up to a playoff game, that game has gone OVER the total in 26 of 42 games, or 61.9% of the time.
* When posted totals have dropped throughout the week leading up to a playoff game, that game has gone UNDER the total in 37 of 69 games, or 53.7% of the time.

[Spearit]

Playoff Trends by Round

Wildcard Round
The Wildcard round of the NFL playoffs has been the highest scoring of any round, and one where the home team, as well as straight up winner has dominated play. Considering that this is the round where division winners are hosting wild card teams, these stats aren’t that surprising. However, you’ll see that the tide is turning quickly, as the road team has really picked it up over the last three season.
* Of the 52 Wildcard Round games since ’93, the straight up winner is 45-4-3 ATS (91.8%)
* Home teams are 37-15 SU & 30-19-3 ATS (61.2%) over the last 13 seasons of Wildcard action
* Over the last three years, road teams have held the upper hand, 5-7 SU & 8-4 ATS (66.7%)
* Favorites of 7 points or more are 12-2 SU & 9-5 ATS in the WC playoffs since ’93, including a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS by double digit favorites.
* Underdogs of 3.5-6.5 points have performed remarkably well, 11-9 SU & 11-8-1 ATS (57.9%)!
* The average line in Wildcard playoff games since ’93 is home team favored by 4.5 points. The average score in the games is 26.3-19.3 in favor of the hosts.
* The 45.6 total points per game is the highest combined score of any round, though ironically, the OVER-UNDER numbers are split 26-26. The average total posted in this round is 40.9.

[Spearit]

Divisional Playoff Round
The Divisional Playoff round of the NFL postseason has produced the most lopsided scores as the teams that have earned the right to rest through the Wildcard round have owned their visiting foes. In fact, the average margin of victory in this round has been over 15 PPG.
* The home team has been most dominant in winning games in the Divisional Playoff round, with a SU record of 41-11. Its ATS mark of 28-22 (56%) slightly trails the Wildcard Round though.
* Discounting the rare four road covers of the 2004 Divisional Playoff Weekend, Home teams are a stellar 21-3 SU & 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in this round
* Favorites in the Divisional Round own an ATS mark of 26-21 (55.3%) since ’93.
* Favorites of more than a TD are 20-3 SU & 15-7-1 ATS (68.1%) in the Divisional Round since ’93!
* There has been only one home underdog in the last 13 years of Divisional Round play, and that was in ’97 when host Carolina upended Dallas 26-17 as a 3-point dog.
* The last six times that a 6th seed has advanced to the Divisional round, it has been blown out. The average score of these games was 39-14, and the home team was 6-0 SU & ATS.

[Spearit]

Conference Championship Round
Conference Championship weekend has historically produced the most competitive games of any playoff round, as the favorites hold just a 13-12 edge over the underdogs and the average score has been home team 22.5, road team 20.0. In addition, there have been eight upsets in this round, and road teams actually own a better winning percentage over the last eight seasons.
* The average line in the last 26 Conference Championship games has been home team favored by 5.6.
* In a stretch from 2000 through the later game in 2003, the underdog covered seven straight times, winning five of them.
* Since the Championship games of 1998, road teams actually hold a sizeable edge with a mark of 9-7 SU & 10-5-1 ATS.
* OVERs have been on a nice run over the past four years in the championship round, converting at a 5-2-1 clip (71.4%)
* Dougle digit favorites have really struggled in this round, going 4-2 SU but just 1-5 ATS (16.7%)!
* The greatest percentage of home underdog opportunities has presented itself on conference title game Sunday, with five in all. Unfortunately, those dogs are just 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS (25%).
* The last four 4th seeds (Buffalo ’93, Denver ’98, Tennessee ’00, Baltimore ’01) to advance to the AFC Championship are 3-0-1 ATS in that game, and have advanced to the Super Bowl each time.

[Spearit]

Seed Performance

To be the top seed is naturally each team’s goal, but that team hasn’t been the best performing playoff team. The seed with the best ATS mark since ’93 is the 3rd seed. That honor used to belong to the 4th seed, but it has dropped nine of its last 11 games against the spread. Be sure to refer back to these records when the seeds are finally sorted out at the conclusion of the regular season. Again, all of these are the records of since the ’93 playoffs, incidentally, the first season of the full ******* database:

1st seed: 33-14 SU, 25-22 ATS (53.2%)
2nd seed: 29-17 SU, 22-21-3 ATS (51.2%)
3rd seed: 24-25 SU, 27-21-1 ATS (56.3%)
4th seed: 26-22 SU, 24-19-5 ATS (55.8%)
5th seed: 9-26 SU, 14-18-3 ATS (43.8%)
6th seed: 7-27 SU, 12-22 ATS (35.3%)

Two other interesting facts about seeding:
Since ’93, the top seed has been an underdog three times in either an AFC or NFC playoff game. It is just 1-2 SU & ATS in those contests. Also, 5th or 6th seeds have been favored four times and have lost all four SU & ATS.

[Spearit]

Trend of Teams from Stats Recorded during a Playoff Game

There are three key statistical angles that winning playoff teams generally possess: more rushing yards, more yards per pass attempt, and fewer turnovers in that game.

The turnovers have proven to be the most crucial of these factors, as teams that have turned the ball over fewer times in a playoff game are an incredible 91-15-3 ATS (85.8%). Similarly, teams that rush for more yards in a playoff game are 97-27-6 ATS (78.2%).

Naturally one could argue that the team that is ahead will run the ball more, but still it is key to know which team can better control the line of scrimmage. Finally, teams that average more yards per pass attempt, or those that create more big plays through the air, have compiled a mark of 90-34-6 ATS in playoff games. Big plays via the passing game give teams leads, which in turn allow them to run the ball more and avoid turnovers.

When you combine the factors and find teams that have edges in all three key statistical aspects, the records go to 60-2 SU & 56-5-1 ATS (91.8%). In fact, home teams that have enjoyed edges in all three have a perfect record of 45-0 since 1993 in the playoffs.

[BillMill71]

Great Info Spearit, can we get a sticky on this through the playoff's????

[Spearit]

Spearit Play #1

NFL | JACKSONVILLE at NEW ENGLAND -- Over 37
Play Over - Home teams against the total off an upset loss as a favorite, with a winning record in the second half of the season
32-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.2% )
2-1 this year.

[rocko]

WOOOW GREAT STUFF brother u the man a lot helpful stuff thank u were the fuck u get all this info geeeezz lol im impressed,thanks again for sharing
GETER DONE GLLLL PEACEEEEEEE

[Spearit]

Spearit Play #2

Washington +2.5 (Buy up to 3 or see if a book has it) I sincerely hate to go against my Bucs at home. Really could go either way but Brunell has the experience and Simms does not.

Washington has not felt the playoffs since 1999

PLAY ON a team in the Wild Card round that has not been in the Playoffs for 3 or more years. (17-4 ATS)

WASHINGTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 21.1, OPPONENT 15.7 - (Rating = 2*)

WASHINGTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
The average score was WASHINGTON 26.6, OPPONENT 15.7 - (Rating = 3*)

TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after a win by 14 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 16.3, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 1*)

TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 11.7, OPPONENT 18.0 - (Rating = 1*)

[fatchat]

Very good info and help to make choice, great job and I hope that I can nail down the team.

GL in your playoff