NFL Playoffs Info

[Spearit]

WASHINGTON is 16-0 against a teaser line (+16.0 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 18.6, OPPONENT 17.3

I expect a low scoring game - clayton is out for TB also.

[bhs4life]

clayton is out for TB also

CLAYTON HAD A CRAP SEASON ANYWAYS WATCH OUT FOR IKE

[Spearit]

Charlie- I agree Ike has had a big part in the TB renaisance. I am Bucco all the way to 9 points. Just Washington will also show up tomorrow.

[Spearit]

For the Playoffs ---focus on the Wild Card games along with the correlating numbers. Since 1993, of the 52 Wildcard Round games played, the straight up winner is 45-4-3 ATS. (91.8%) What this unquestionably points out is that “Pick the Game Winner and you are an ATS Winner as well”.

The first key number is of course three. --look at all the home favorites of 1-3 points. Your typical home team in any home field scenario should be at least a three point favorite in the playoffs. What the linemakers are saying in this range is the home team is no better then the opposition and if the number falls below three, they are probably not as good.

Both Tampa Bay and the New York Giants fall into this category in the Wild Card round. Since 1993, home favorites are 6-3-2 ATS in this exact role. It is certainly within the realm of possibility to believe though that both visitors Washington and Carolina could win their respective games outright. Coincidently, both games are in the weaker NFC.

The second most popular number is seven points when considering football’s important numerology. -- home favorites that are 7 to 9.5 points. New England fits that profile in their game with Jacksonville.
You could easily make a case the Jaguars were ‘scheduled’ into the playoffs with the teams they played in the second half of the year, nonetheless, the Patriots last six victories were against teams with a combined 36-60 record.

Teams in this range are still a comfortable 8-4 ATS over the last 12 seasons. If New England would fall below a touchdown favorite, a completely different group of numbers appears.

Home favorites of 3.5 – 6.5 points represent the largest group in the study and the least favorable to the home team. Visiting teams are 11-8-1 against the number in this contingent.
Included are 11 outright upsets by these apparently ungrateful visitors.

The Cincinnati Bengals are a home underdog, which is a rare occurrence in the Wild Card round. This has happened only four other times in the last dozen years. For those of you thinking about Carson and company, though limited numbers prevail, all four times the home underdog has won and covered.

Again- PLAY ON a team in the Wild Card round that has not been in the Playoffs for 3 or more years. (17-4 ATS) We’ll let you do that figuring on this one.
Bengals stage first playoff game in 15 years. (Also Washington- 1999. Jaguars - I can't remember but over 4 years when we had Brunnell-- Dogs could easily take this saturday from the favs- just like last year.

[TheRook]

Great stuff as usual.

[Spearit]

Thanx Rook
On the games today

Trends are fine - but it is the variables of turnovers, rushing yards and passing yds per attempt that I will bring forth now.
In the last 6 games Wash has had a +14 T/O ratio to +5 for TB. Advantage Washington. Almost 3-1 differential.
(Please note TB had +4 and +3 against New Orleans alone and had a -2 T/O Mark in the rest of the games.)

Rushing - differential of opposing teams rushing yards- Advantage Washington- generally runs 50 yds more than opponent. TB can not match that.

Passing yds per attempt- Washington (Away) has a better passing yds per completion than TB (Home) at 16.3 and gives up only 13.8. TB is 14.8 and gives up 14.7 @ Raymond James Stadium -Tampa

Washington has faced tougher competition these last 6 games and is 20.3 to TB 19.3 in toughness of competition this year. TB defense is better but not nearly as opportunistic as Washington.

So - as to who covers this game- Fade my Bucs and Take Washington. Most scenarios support this pick.Also remember -last game when Alstott did not break the plane for a TD- Wash gets payback today.

Washington- last 6 games
1/1/2006 Sun at Philadelphia 31-20 W -7.5/37 W/O
offense: Rushing 151 Passing 128 Total 279
defense: Rushing 96 Passing 239 Total 335 T/O+5

12/24/2005 Sat NY Giants 35-20 W -3.5/39 W/O
offense: R-156 P-224 380
defense: R-99 P-233 T-332 T/O 0

12/18/2005 Sun Dallas 35-7 W 1.5/35 W/O
offense: R-171 P-163 T-334
defense: R-109 P-107 T-216 T/O +3

12/11/2005 Sun at Arizona 17-13 W -3.5/40 W/U
Offense: R-109 P-122 T-231
Defense: R-62 P-240 T-302 T/O +1

12/4/2005 Sun at St. Louis 24-9 W -3.5/45.5 W/U
Offense: R-257 P-150 T-407
Defense: R-49 P-142 T-191 T/O +2

11/27/2005 Sun San Diego 17-23 L 3.5/43 L/U
Offense: R-91 P-191 T-282
Defense: R-202 P-195 T-397 T/O +3

Prior to last 6 games
11/20/2005 Sun Oakland 13-16 L -6/44 L/U 108 138 246 50 286 336 -2
11/13/2005 Sun at Tampa Bay 35-36 L -1.5/34.5 L/O 185 204 389 61 279 340 -2

Tampa Baylast 6 games

1/1/2006 Sun New Orleans 27-13 W -13/37 W/O
Offense: R-149 P-136 Total 285
Defense: R-71 P-235 Total 306 T/O +3

12/24/2005 Sat Atlanta 27-24 W -3.5/36.5 L/O
Offense: R-174 P-270 T-444
Defense: R-154 P-127 T-281 T/O -2

12/17/2005 Sat at New England 0-28 L 6/38 L/U
Offense: R-30 P-108 T-138
Defense: R-83 P-253 T-336 T/O -1

12/11/2005 Sun at Carolina 20-10 W 6/35.5 W/U
Offense: R-114 P-133 T-247
Defense: R-82 P-194 T-276 +1

12/4/2005 Sun at New Orleans 10-3 W -3.5/38.5 W/U
Offense: R-133 P-115 T-248
Defense; R-65 P-214 T-279 T/O +4

11/27/2005 Sun Chicago 10-13 L -3/31 L/U
Offense: R-107 P-168 T-275
Defense: R-118 P-121 T-239 T/O 0

prior to last 6 games
11/20/2005 Sun at Atlanta 30-27 W 6/39 W/O
Offense: R-140 P-118 T-258
Defense: R-150 P-293 T-443 T/O +1

11/13/2005 Sun Washington 36-35 W 1.5/34.5 W/O 61 279 340 185 204 389 +2

[Spearit]

Tampa/Washington Under 37
Opened at 38 and down to 37. Percentages like these are hard to come by.

The betting public is correct when moving the total in WASHINGTON games 67.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (27-13)

The betting public is correct when moving the total in TAMPA BAY games 61.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (24-15)

[Spark]

Great Info young man ... Thanks and good Luck

[Spearit]

Thanx Spark

Tampa BAY opened at -2.
When the line in an NFL Playoff game opens at under 3 play the Under:
10-0 ATS since 1993 and 17-3-1 since 1983

Other games qualify here I believe.
Pitt/Cinn.

[Spearit]

Good Luck to all on the playoffs today.

Recap:I have
1)NE/Jax Over 37
2)Wash +10 and under 44 Teased as todays selections.

[Kaptain]

great work Spearit---I appreciate it, and I'm sure a lots more do also.....kapt

[Spiccoli]

Tampa D better step up if we're going to hold this under 44....

[Spearit]

I was thinking the same except Tampa O better not give an opportunistic defense (mentioned) any more elbow room.

[Spearit]

The game played out as indicated thruout the thread. An opportunistic defense beats the better overall defense. Simms inexperience in this playoff setting showed in the last series when he threw the interception to seal the game for Washington.

1)NE/Jax Over 37
2)Wash +10 and under 44------------------Winner

[Spearit]

1)NE/Jax Over 37 ---------------------Loss
2)Wash +10 and under 44 -------------Win

On to tomorrow.