NFL Playoffs Info

[butkus51]

dont forget tampa is 27-8 home with the line -3/+3:also playoff road off regular season road 18-35-3 ats and if off 3 consecutive division games then its 1-14su and 2-13 ats(thats against wash)

[roccodean]

butkus, is that last trend only against road teams?

[roccodean]

Thanks a million spirit,been looking for playoff trends for a while. Awesome!

[butkus51]

yes rocco

[butkus51]

also home playoff vs.<.764 opponents of a su and ats win are 77-38 play N.E.,Gmen,T.B if that home team won no more than 25 of last 32 home games than it 63-24 play T.B. & Gmen

[Spearit]

Thank you Butkus and anyone else eager to pitch in and lets all win some money. TB, NE and Gmen - all favs and so much pouring in on them. Wash opened @ +3 now @ +2 1/2 and looking at the second starred fact this is in TB favor.

Playoffs- Info on line moves

* When lines have opened at a particular point and moved towards the home team, following that line move (betting the home team) would have netted a 31-26-1 ATS (54.4%) record since ’93.

* Following line movements towards a road team (betting the road team) would have resulted in just a 11-24-3 ATS (31.4%) record.

* When posted totals have risen throughout the week leading up to a playoff game, that game has gone OVER the total in 26 of 42 games, or 61.9% of the time.

* When posted totals have dropped throughout the week leading up to a playoff game, that game has gone UNDER the total in 37 of 69 games, or 53.7% of the time.

For the 2005 season, in the NFL, the line moves were 2-2 last week for a total of 40-24 62.5% on the regular season, including an amazing 18-4 the last six weeks.

[meaiken]

Correct me if i am wrong

All super bowl dogs of 12 pts or more have won the game outright

[Spearit]

In the Super Bowl
Double-digit favorites are 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS, 58.3%.

[lowrider66]

Thanks for the info Spearit!

Am I wrong to like all four dogs this weekend?

[Spearit]

Lowrider- I am still gathering info- I only want to play the very best bets we can get. But lets take a look at some dogs. Butkus shows favs to have the better of it and look at post 9 for info. I am looking for the TO/Rushing/ passing yards per attempt to sway me.

Taking a look at some past results by 6th seeds in the playoffs since 1993 reveals some interesting trends:


- Since '93, only two 6th seeds have been favored in the playoffs, both lost straight up

- Since '93, there have been six 6th seeds that have garnered the public's attention...i.e. the public has moved the line towards that team: All have lost straight up and the ATS mark is just 1-5.

- 6th seeds in the playoffs since '93 have been outscored by an average of 28.5-18.1 in 34 games.

- In playoff games with totals of
40 or higher, 6th seeds are just 4-16 SU & 5-15 ATS.

- 6th seeds fortunate enough to advance past the wildcard round are 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS in the divisional round, outscored by an average margin of 34.8-14.4.

[lowrider66]

Lowrider- I am still gathering info- I only want to play the very best bets we can get. But lets take a look at some dogs.

Taking a look at some past results by 6th seeds in the playoffs since 1993 reveals some interesting trends:


- Since '93, only two 6th seeds have been favored in the playoffs, both lost straight up

- Since '93, there have been six 6th seeds that have garnered the public's attention...i.e. the public has moved the line towards that team: All have lost straight up and the ATS mark is just 1-5.

- 6th seeds in the playoffs since '93 have been outscored by an average of 28.5-18.1 in 34 games.

- In playoff games with totals of
40 or higher, 6th seeds are just 4-16 SU & 5-15 ATS.

- 6th seeds fortunate enough to advance past the wildcard round are 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS in the divisional round, outscored by an average margin of 34.8-14.4.

Thanks Spear. Looks like things are pointing toward the Bucs... I'll hold off on playing your Spearit Play #2 from post 14. I am kind of hoping the Skins advance because that really favors the Seahawks...

[Spearit]

I am in agreement- this is not about anything other than a true desire to cap these games well- bottom line.

[BrezzeEaze]

Nice work Spearit. Very interesting results. All the best to you with your picks.

[Spearit]

OK - Spear Play # 2 (Modified)

Play #2 has some some angles working against it- thats the beauty of this site- bringing forth the info to take or dispel a play. That play is too close to my heart to play- But I will stick with it on a teaser with these two plays.
I will bypass Spear #2 Play and modify it in teaser form with:

Wash +10 (now @+3-woohoo) and the Under 44

- Gibbs is 14-5 UNDER (+8.5 Units) as an underdog as the coach of WASHINGTON
- Gruden is 28-15 UNDER (+11.5 Units) as a favorite as the coach of TAMPA BAY.

- T BAY opened at -2 => When the line in an NFL Playoff game opens <3 play the Under:
10-0 ATS since 1993 and 17-3-1 since 1983.

- As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game now:

The betting public is correct when moving the total in WASHINGTON games 67.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (27-13)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in TAMPA BAY games 61.5% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (24-15)
Edge=Under

[Spearit]

Play Against - All teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (TAMPA BAY) off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, vs a good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
73-38 since 1997. ( 65.8% | 0.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )

If ya don't mind I can't see this line holding for long at +3 Wash