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**ShotCallas** · 04-08-2004, 08:33 AM

LARRY NESS MLB GOY

I know it way too early for this but I am curious if anyone has this play. Thanks and GL!

**frankie** · 04-08-2004, 08:42 AM

***********

how are these guys in baseball?

**Spark** · 04-08-2004, 09:22 AM

WinOnBaseball - Thursday Report - 04/08/04

-- NEXT UPDATE will be posted before 6:00am Pacific on FRIDAY, April 9.

Season record: 3-11 -8.88 UNITS

PREFACE: One factor in my handicapping involves an extensive analysis of the pitching/batting matchup. Part of my analysis involves studying the critucal pitching statistics of Control Rate, HR Rate, Dominance Rate, and Command Ratio, among others, which do not show up in traditional box scores. Rather than expound on these invididual stats in my write-ups, I will often refer to them collectively as a pitcher's "skill set." You can rest assured that this analysis is performed on every game, even though I may not specifically refer to them.

All lines effective as of 4/8/2004, 12:28:36 AM - PST. Listed pitchers must start.

Four plays for Thursday:

ATL (THOMSON) -156 over NYM (Erickson) - 1 UNIT - 4:35pm Pacific
Erickson hasn't pitched in two of the last three seasons, including last year, when he was out due to a torn labrum. He hasn't pitched well since 1998, and there's no reason to think he has anything good left. He is an extreme groundball pitcher, and Atlanta's lineup hits those types of pitchers well. Thomson was Texas' best pitcher last year, if that means anything. His second half was terrific, and moving out of Texas should allow him to show off his pretty good skill set. His skill set, even while in Texas was pretty good. Atlanta should be able to score on Erickson, and Thomson and his bullpen should be enough preserve the win.

OVER 9 MIN (SILVA)/DET (CORNEJO) -118 - 1 UNIT - 11:05am Pacific
Silva has been pitching in relief during the last two years. He was the worst pitcher in baseball last year at handling inherited runners. He probably does not have much stamina at this point, due to his history of being a reliever, which means, we'll probably see the bullpen early. Minnesota has played in extra innings 2 of the last 3 games, and they gave up 11 runs yesterday.

Cornejo's strikeout rate last year was the worst in 50 years. His command and dominance rates are horrible. His fastball can't crack 90 anymore, but he still pitches like a fastball pitcher. Since he doesn't strike anyone out, he puts a lot of balls in play, which leads to more runners on base. Two below average starting pitchers here, with questionable bullpens, so I anticipate the game to go over.

KC (AFFELDT) -152 over Cle (D'Amico) - 1 UNIT - 11:10am Pacific
Of all the KC's lefties, Affeldt is probably best suited for Kauffman Stadium. He has shown an ability to keep balls in the park, and his skill set is above average for this stadium. The Cleveland lineup also struggles against lefties. D'Amico is a a pretty extreme flyball pitcher, so he should have trouble here. The difference in skill sets between these two starters favors Affeldt by a sginificant margin. Neither bullpen is impressive, but I feel confident that Affeldt & Co. can pull this one out.

SEA (GARCIA) -129 over Ana (Escobar) - 1 UNIT - 1:35pm Pacific
Last year, in 30.2 IP against Anaheim, Garcia had a 1.17 ERA and .226 BAA. Over the last three years against them, he is 10-1, with a 2.20 ERA and .225 BAA in 102.1 IP. Granted, the Angels have a different lineup with Vlad and Guillen, but it's hard to ignore those numbers. Escobar's skill set tailed off during the second half of last year, and the Mariners can still hit. I think they can have some success here.

PLEASE NOTE: All wagers are recommended for a "base" unit. Thus a side for 1 UNIT at -110 should be considered risking 1.10 UNITS to win 1.00 UNITS, while a team at +110 should be considered risking 1.00 UNITS to win 1.10 UNITS.

Do not hesitate to contact us with any questions or comments.

Good luck,

Edward (Sales & Marketing)
Richard (Handicapping)

**frankb03** · 04-08-2004, 09:48 AM

Spark

Your post yesterday at 7:11pm in the service thread is that a summary of all the service selections posted in the thread or do you get all those selections?

**Cubs04** · 04-08-2004, 09:52 AM

Hoosier Sports

He has been HOT on his early plays, Last night's 10* really set me up for awhile.

http://www.trackpicks.com/mypage.asp?h=904
[email protected]

5* Chicago White Sox/New York Yankees OVER 10

**jonnie** · 04-08-2004, 10:08 AM

GOODFELLAS WINS AGAIN 2-0 LAST NIGHT

SORRY GUYS BUT IM LEAVING TODAY ON A 10 DAY BUSINESS TRIP.AND IM NOT SO SURE I CAN PUT UP G.F PLAYS. THERE WORTH CHECKING OUT.THEY ARE THE BEST SERVICE IVE BEEN WITH AND IVE BEEN WITH A LOT. HANDS DOWN.I'LL TRY AND GET THERE PLAYS FOR TODAY GOOD LUCK EVERYONE IM HAVING ANOTHER GREAT WEEK. I LOVE LIFE. LOL LOL MAKING MONEY BABY. JONNIE

**unchill** · 04-08-2004, 10:21 AM

NSA?

Thanks.

**khurdt** · 04-08-2004, 10:32 AM

wats the goodfellas website?

**jonnie** · 04-08-2004, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by khurdt
wats the goodfellas website?

WWW.GOODFELLASSPORTS.COM. JUST CALLED THEM NOTHING YET. JONNIE

**slickrick** · 04-08-2004, 11:08 AM

Re: ***********

Originally posted by frankie
how are these guys in baseball?

I've been with them for 4 years now and 3 out of the 4 years they won big in bases and 1 year was a little in the +. he is known to start a bit slow. last year they were in like 25th place at NSM first few weeks then was #2 at the allstar break. they will make you money,and can't beat their price packages

**meteor** · 04-08-2004, 11:30 AM

jonnie..regarding goodfellas

just curious have these guys been reliable in posting their records since you joined?the reasons i ask is becuase they have 5-1 on their site for last week,but you posted 2 losers from them in addition to the 5 winners..wednesday on t-wolves/seattle over and thursday on the dallas under.just trying to get a gauge of how truthful these guys are...you've posted a lot of winners from them but that whole bookie/inside info. thing still makes me a bit skiddish.

thanks mate

**Spark** · 04-08-2004, 11:38 AM

Re: Spark

Originally posted by frankb03
Your post yesterday at 7:11pm in the service thread is that a summary of all the service selections posted in the thread or do you get all those selections?

FRANK...NOT SURE I UNDERSTAND THE QUESTION...THAT IS A REPORT I WAS GETTING...IT ENDS TODAY...

NBA Freebie for April 8th

Free picks are 48-33 (+28.43 units) in 2004. They are currently on a 2-game losing streak.

Free 2-unit NBA Freebie for April 8th:

Take Minnesota +5 @ Sacramento

**Spark** · 04-08-2004, 11:41 AM

Re: Re: Spark

SportsGuru
NBA Freebie for April 8th

Free picks are 48-33 (+28.43 units) in 2004. They are currently on a 2-game losing streak.

Free 2-unit NBA Freebie for April 8th:

Take Minnesota +5 @ Sacramento

**Spark** · 04-08-2004, 11:43 AM

NHL Pick
VEGAS SI
Thursday, April 8, 2004
NHL HOCKEY
New Jersey @ Philadelphia
Pick: New Jersey +115
Time: 7:35 PM EST

Announcement

Service Plays and Requests Thursday

Service Plays and Requests Thursday

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