Da bum's 2019 nfl season's best bets- opinions-news-trends thru the superbowl !

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


CHOOSING SIDES

We are down to four sleeps till Super Bowl 54. Neither the line nor the total has moved much since it opened on Jan 20 at Sports Interaction. The Chiefs are still 1.5-point chalk after opening at -1 while the total opened at 53.5, peaked at 55 and now sits at 54.

It may sound cliche, but this is a classic defense-against-offense matchup with Kansas City’s top-three DVOA offense facing San Francisco’s No. 2 DVOA defense. The biggest advantage the 49ers have is their defensive-front four who are so disruptive that Robert Saleh seldom has to commit his linebackers and secondary to blitzes. The Niners sat in the bottom-three in blitz percentage as it allows them to drop seven players in coverage.

Not blitzing could also help in another situation as the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes has a quarterback rating of 117.2 when facing the blitz versus 106.3 when not.

Statistically, the Chiefs have 56 first downs through their two playoff games with just eight of those coming on third down — 8-for-18. San Fran’s defense could put Mahomes and the offense in an uncomfortable and unfamiliar position by forcing Kansas City to pass the ball on third down against seven defenders in coverage.

We usually look at player/team props and derivatives, but it wouldn’t be fair if we didn't get our two cents in on the side. We have made our choice and going with the defense — Niners +1.5.


WINNING BIG WITH SPECIAL TEAMS

With a lofty total of 54 points, SB54 could have its fair share of scoring. With scoring comes the usually bland kick returns, unless you’re the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs’ full-time returner, Mecole Hardman, led the league in return yards with 932 — 100 yards more than the next player.

Hardman will have ample opportunities to make something happen as the 49ers have a touchback percentage of 50 percent which ranks in the bottom seven of the league. On top of leading the league in return yards, the K.C. returner with 4.3 wheels also has the longest kickoff return this year at 104 yards and is only one of seven players to score a kickoff return TD. The last kickoff return TD in a Super Bowl was by Jacoby Jones back in 2012.

Very few things in a football game are as exciting as a kickoff return touchdown, especially when it pays 15 times your wager. Find the “Will there be a kickoff return TD” and add the Yes (+1427) to your betting slip.


THE LONGEST YARD

Looking at both the longest score props of the game, the longest touchdown scored prop sits at 44.5 yards while the longest field goal’s total is 47.5 yards. It may be fun to play these bets, but previous Super Bowls haven’t been very profitable for these Overs.

In the last 10 Super Bowls, Over 47.5 yards for the longest field has hit just once — Rams’ Greg Zuerlein’s 53-yarder last year. To make matters even worse the Over is just 3-7 O/U in the Chiefs and 49ers combined previous five games while the Chiefs have attempted just one field goal this postseason.

Since Super Bowl 44, a touchdown of 45 yards or longer has been scored six times, but only in four of the 10 games. Of those six, only one was scored by an offense** (three interception returns, a punt return and a kickoff return). San Francisco is 1-4 O/U longest TD of 44.5 yards in its last five with the only long score coming on a pick-six and Kansas City is 3-2 O/U that total in its last five. 45 Yards is longer than we think as even Stefon Diggs’ TD against the Niners in the Divisional round was shy at 41 yards.

We don’t always like betting with the trends, but this one has our interest and we have no problem hitting the Under on both longest field goal and longest TD.

**So, here is the question: Which QB threw the longest TD in a Super Bowl over the last 10 years?

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Championship

Super Bowl, Miami:
— Underdogs won five of the last eight Super Bowls.
— Underdogs are 12-6 vs spread in last 18 Super Bowls
— Five of the last seven Super Bowls went over.

— Chiefs are in their first Super Bowl in 50 years; they’re 1-1 in Super Bowls
— KC won its last eight games, scoring 31.6 ppg.
— Chiefs’ last three games went over the total.
— KC is 2-0 this year in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Reid was Eagles’ coach when they lost Super Bowl 15 years ago.

— 49ers are in first Super Bowl since 2012; they’re 5-1 in Super Bowls
— SF won its last four games, scoring 31 ppg.
— Over is 4-1-1 in 49ers’ last six games.
— SF is 5-0 this year in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
— Shanahan was Atlanta’s OC when they blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl

— Chiefs beat San Francisco 38-27 in Week 3 LY; they led 35-10 at halftime.
— Home team won last 10 49er-Chief games, but this is on a neutral field.
— Prediction: Chiefs, 28-27

[Udog]

Advantage - Kansas City Chiefs
Kevin Rogers

The Chiefs hosted the AFC championship game in 2018, but lost a shootout in overtime to the eventual champion Patriots. However, Kansas City rebounded this season with another trip to the conference title game and knocked off Tennessee for its first Super Bowl appearance since 1969.

In spite of last season’s Most Valuable Player Patrick Mahomes missing nearly three games due to a dislocated kneecap, the Chiefs still posted 451 points. Kansas City made the Super Bowl even though it scored 114 points less than last season and finished with the exact same 14-2 record in the regular season.

Mahomes threw almost half the touchdown passes from 2018 (50) to this season (26), but also cut down on his interceptions from 12 to 5. The former Texas Tech standout still managed 4,031 yards passing in 13 ½ games, which was only an average of eight yards passing fewer per game than 2018. The Chiefs won seven of eight games away from Arrowhead Stadium with the only loss coming to the Titans in Week 10 on a last-minute touchdown, which was coincidentally the best passing game by Mahomes this season (446 yards).

The Chiefs did an excellent job of not giving away the ball this season by committing only 15 turnovers, which was ranked tied for third-fewest in the league. As mentioned earlier, the five interceptions thrown by Mahomes (zero by Matt Moore in the two games he started) were the second-fewest in the NFL behind Green Bay. Kansas City owned a +8 turnover ratio on the season, compared to San Francisco’s +4 turnover margin as the 49ers threw 13 interceptions, which is the second-most among playoff teams.

Mahomes has never thrown an interception in four career playoff games, compared to 11 touchdown passes. His best passing performance came in the divisional round against the Texans in which he threw for 321 yards and five touchdowns, marking the most touchdowns he posted this season.

VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson provides his thoughts on why the Chiefs are worth backing, “Kansas City was sixth in the NFL in opposing quarterback passer rating, ahead of San Francisco. The Chiefs were also eighth in the NFL in red zone touchdown success allowed, while San Francisco was 25th. The Chiefs allowed 4.8 yards per rush this season, but San Francisco wasn’t that much better surrendering 4.4 yards per attempt. While the bulk of the compiling numbers favor San Francisco, there are key numbers that paint these defenses much closer together than the general team statistics over the course of the season. The defensive numbers for San Francisco also got worse in the second half of the season while they improved dramatically for the Chiefs down the stretch.”

The two rallies pulled off by Kansas City just proves its relentless scoring prowess according to Nelson, “The Chiefs have come back from 24-0 and 17-7 in two playoff wins the past two games as this team can handle adversity and won’t panic if there is a big turnover or an early setback. It isn’t clear the 49ers can do that going just 5-3 in single-score games this season. The 49ers lucked into the #1 seed in the NFC with Seattle falling an inch short of the goal line in Week 17. In the NFC Championship, they faced a Packers team that could make a case for being one of the weakest #2 seeds in NFL history as well. Both quality road wins for the 49ers came narrowly with great fortune while the Chiefs dominated its final two road games of the season against quality defenses and will be easier to trust in a neutral site far from home.”

The second half defense has been especially strong for Kansas City down the stretch by allowing double-digit points after halftime only once in the past eight contests. The Chiefs yielded seven points in the second half of each of their playoff wins against the Titans and Texans, while the most points allowed after halftime in this stretch was 14 in the Week 17 home win over the Chargers.

The Chiefs did a better job of limiting top statistical quarterbacks than the 49ers this season. Kansas City has played five games against quarterbacks that finished in the top 10 in passing (Philip Rivers twice, Derek Carr twice, and Tom Brady), while San Francisco played six contests against four such quarterbacks (Jared Goff twice, Russell Wilson twice, Jameis Winston, and Matt Ryan). In spite of the 49ers playing one extra game, they racked up only five interceptions, with three coming in the opener at Tampa Bay. The Chiefs compiled 11 interceptions in those five games, compared to six touchdown passes.

Out of starting quarterbacks that played at least 14 games, Mahomes was sacked the least by getting taken down only 17 times, compared to Jimmy Garoppolo getting sacked 36 times in 16 starts.

[Udog]

Advantage - San Francisco 49ers
Kevin Rogers

The 49ers were not a team strongly considered to be the top seed in the NFC playoffs, much less capture its first conference title since 2012. But San Francisco put together a terrific campaign that started with an 8-0 record and a 13-3 finish that included late-season victories over the Saints, Rams, and Seahawks to secure the number one seed and home-field advantage.

Since Jimmy Garoppolo has taken over as starting quarterback of the 49ers late in the 2017 season, San Francisco owns a spectacular 21-5 record. Garoppolo won the final starts of 2017 after getting traded from New England, then went 1-1 to begin 2018 before tearing his ACL in a Week 3 defeat at San Francisco. The season went sideways for the Niners, who finished 4-12, but after Garoppolo rehabbed from the knee injury, San Francisco lost a total of three games in 2019, including two by three points each.

The defense led the way for San Francisco to begin the season, which included limiting six of their first seven opponents to 17 points or less. The 49ers posted 31 points or more four times during this early stretch, including dropping 51 points on Carolina in a Week 8 home blowout. Garoppolo threw for over 300 yards only three times this season, but all three came in victories, including in the wild 48-46 triumph at New Orleans in Week 14.

Although the defensive numbers weren’t as strong down the stretch for San Francisco (31.7 points per game allowed in the last four regular season games), the 49ers shut down the Vikings and Packers in two resounding home playoff victories. San Francisco limited those two NFC North squads to a total of 30 points, while winning each time by 17 points. The Niners allowed a total of 83 yards on the ground in the two victories, after giving up an average of 112.8 yards per game rushing (which was still 16 yards better than the Chiefs).

Since 2013, three NFC teams listed as underdogs in the Super Bowl that won both playoff games at home are 2-1. The Seahawks dominated the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII, 43-8 and the Eagles outlasted the Patriots, 41-33 in Super Bowl LII. The only loser in this situation was the Falcons in Super Bowl LI, who famously squandered a 28-3 lead over the Patriots in a 34-28 overtime setback as three-point ‘dogs.

NFL handicapper Joe Nelson elaborates on the dominance of the San Francisco defense through the playoffs, “Aaron Rodgers had a 22.3 QBR in the NFC Championship despite being one of the all-time greats in that metric. Kirk Cousins was one of the top-rated quarterbacks in the NFL and he didn’t fare much better vs. the 49ers with the Vikings managing seven first downs. The Chiefs have needed Patrick Mahomes to be brilliant in two playoff wins after digging early holes, he isn’t likely to have great numbers against a 49ers’ defense that held opposing quarterbacks to the seventh-worst rating in the league in the regular season.”

For as much as the Chiefs are thought of as an offensive juggernaut, the 49ers’ offense actually outperformed Kansas City this season, “Kansas City wowed with 86 points in two impressive comeback wins in the playoffs, but even with that scoring the Chiefs have been outscored by the 49ers 543-537 through 18 games. The only major team statistic that the Chiefs beat the 49ers is turnover differential at +8 compared to just +7 counting the playoff games for an inconsequential difference,” Nelson notes.

The 49ers led the NFL in passing yards allowed per game in the NFL at 169.2, while yielding 300 or more yards to a quarterback three times this season. In San Francisco’s three losses, the Niners never gave up more than 240 yards passing as they led or were tied with less than two minutes to go in each defeat.

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


FIVE YARDS FOR A WINNER

Looking to diversify your player prop portfolio for Sunday’s game? Well, Jimmy Garoppolo’s rushing total sits at an unheard of 4.5 yards. That’s basically one small jump for a winner. There is obviously a reason why his total is so low as the San Francisco quarterback is averaging just 3.6 yards rushing a game thanks to a 1.4 yards per carry.

The G-man has gone over 4.5 rushing yards in just six of his 18 games this year but is 2-1 O/U in the 49ers three losses. A trend that sits in the QB’s favor is that KC has allowed opposing quarterbacks to top 4.5 yards in six of its last seven games including a 20-yard rushing performance from Tom Brady in Week 14.

If Brady can do it, so can Garoppolo. This one is more fun than anything else, but we are still adding Garoppolo’s Over 4.5 rushing yards to our championship plays.


BETTING ON THE LAST PLAY

The Super Bowl brings us a plethora of game props that aren’t usually available during the regular season. When Over/Under shortest touchdown of 1.5 yards is a standard game prop for you, then you need some weird action to tickle your fancy.

One such play caught our attention: last play of game QB rush (yes -167; no +136). If you’re taking the “no” you will be hoping for a comeback as the victory formation is your greatest enemy and if you’re backing the yes, a quarterback kneel is considered a rushing attempt.

Looking back on each teams’ last five wins, three losses and the last play of the previous seven Super Bowls gives us these results:

San Francisco last five wins — 3-2 Y/N
San Francisco last three losses — 0-3 Y/N

Kansas City last five wins — 5-0 Y/N
Kansas City last three losses — 1-2 Y/N

Last 10 Super Bowls — 4-6 Y/N

This is another bet that you can add to the “fun list” of props as cheering for the plus-money “No” keeps you hoping for the trailing offense to keep possession. We see this closer to a 50/50 bet than the odds suggest and are happy to take the No for +136.


WAITING FOR THE FIRST

We don’t know much about chronological order as we are segueing from the last play of the game to the contest’s first TD. If you’re in the boat that thinks the 49ers won’t have any difficulty rushing the ball against the Chiefs’ No. 29 DVOA rush defense, there are many special bets out there.

The one that took our attention was regarding how the first TD will be scored. Passing TD - First TD of the Game is a big favorite as it sits at -156 while Any Other TD - First TD of the Game is a tempting +120.

The 49ers had the league’s third-best rushing touchdown percentage at just under 50 percent and that number jumps to 85 percent over their last five games. The Chiefs could also help us out with a winner as they have scored rushing TDs at a 42-percent rate of their total offensive TDs, but we like the Niners to get the first crack at an easier touchdown with their defense making life more difficult than the K.C. offense is used to.

We like the Any Other TD - First TD of the Game at +120


KITTLE VS. KELCE

Super Bowl 54 features arguably the two best tight ends in the NFL. Travis Kelce and George Kittle finished first and third respectively in receiving yards this year as Kelce averaged nearly ten yards more than the 49ers TE.

With San Francisco committing to the run, Kittle has stayed in and helped with the blocking as he has been targeted six times in the playoffs and just once in the Conference round. Kelce, on the other hand, put up 134 yards on 10 grabs and a trio of touchdowns in the Divisional game and sputtered a bit versus Tennessee gaining just 30 yards on three grabs.

With the K.C. offense’s motor being driven by the passing game, we will take Kelce to get the most receiving yards between him and Kittle. Kelce pays -120 to outperform the San Fran TE.

[Udog]

Total Talk - Super Bowl 54
Chris David

Over/Under Trends and Angles

Prior to last year’s 13-3 snooze-fest in Super Bowl 53 between the Patriots and Rams, the NFL finale had watched the ‘over’ cash in five of the previous six games.

For this year’s Super Bowl 54 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, the oddsmakers are expecting fireworks and the betting public is buying that narrative.

After the matchup was set on Sunday Jan. 19, oddsmakers sent out an opener of 51 ½ and that total has been pushed up to 54 ½ as of Friday before the Super Bowl. The betting trends are leaning heavily to the ‘over’ and if that connects, the profits for the bookmakers will be cut drastically regardless of the 49ers or Chiefs winnings.

While many bettors love cheering points, the total results for the Super Bowl have had nice back-and-forth results. Through the first 53 Super Bowls with listed totals, the ‘over’ owns a slight 27-25 edge.

For my last and final “Total Talk” piece of the season, I’ve dug up plenty of nuggets that could help your Super Bowl total wagers for either the ‘over’ or ‘under’ come Sunday.

Advantage – Over

-- Kansas City averaged 29.6 points per game on the road, ranked third in the league while San Francisco owns the fifth best offense, averaging 27.5 PPG away from home.

-- Make a note that the Chiefs haven’t played outside of Arrowhead since Dec. 22 when they stifled the Bears 26-3 on the road.

-- San Francisco’s last road trip was a bit more recent and the opponent was much tougher as the 49ers outlasted the Seahawks 26-21 on Dec. 29 from CenturyLink Field.

-- The Chiefs went 5-3 versus playoff teams this season and the ‘over’ went 7-1 in those games, which includes a 2-0 record in the AFC Divisional Playoff and Championship rounds. Delving deeper into those games, Kansas City has allowed 27.7 PPG.

-- Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has appeared in four playoff games and the Chiefs have averaged 37 PPG albeit every contest was played at Arrowhead Stadium.

-- The total on those games were all listed in the fifties and the ‘over’ produced a 3-1 mark.

-- The two teams met in the 2018 regular season and the Chiefs defeated the 49ers 38-27 as six-point home favorites and the ‘over’ (53 ½) connected easily. Mahomes helped KC build a 35-10 lead at halftime and he finished the day with 314 passing yards and three touchdowns. In that game, Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL and missed the rest of the season.

-- Including the aforementioned outcome, KC has watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 in its last eight games against NFC opponents and it’s never been held under 26 points.

-- Another angle focusing on Mahomes goes with games off rest. Since he took over as the signal caller in 2018, the Chiefs have scored 40, 31, 40 and 51 points in their last four games off rest.

-- While San Francisco wasn’t as explosive with rest, it’s been formidable this season. The club went 2-0 when playing with rest in 2019, averaging 29 PPG. The Niners defeated Cleveland 31-3 in Week 5 before humbling Minnesota 27-10 in the Divisional Playoffs round.

-- San Francisco has played in six Super Bowls all-time and the ‘over’ has gone 4-2 in those games. The 49ers have averaged 36.5 PPG in those finales and have never been held below 20 points.

-- One of those NFL championships occurred in Miami and the 49ers blasted the Chargers 49-26 in SBXXIX, which is still the highest-scoring Super Bowl of all-time.

-- San Francisco has played in two Super Bowls with totals listed in the fifties and the ‘over’ has cashed in both of those games.

Advantage – Under

-- San Francisco allowed 18.9 PPG on the road this season, ranked fifth in the league. Meanwhile, Kansas City isn’t known to be a defensive power but it only surrendered 20.2 PPG and the unit was actually better on the road (17.9 PPG) than at home (22 PPG).

-- The Niners watched the ‘under’ go 4-3-1 on the road while Kansas City watched the low side go 5-3 on the road.

-- Kansas City closed the season on a 4-1 ‘under’ record away from home and four of those teams were held to 17 points or less.

-- San Francisco has only had two totals close in the fifties this season and the ‘under’ cashed in both games. Each of those contests took place on the road and San Francisco captured 31-17 and 20-7 wins over the Buccaneers and Rams respectively.

-- Versus AFC opponents, San Francisco is on a 5-1 run to the ‘under’ and that includes a 3-1 mark to the low side this season. The defense only allowed 15 PPG this season versus AFC.

-- Travel is always a factor for the Niners, since they are one of five teams that play on the West Coast. When playing in the Eastern Standard Time Zone this season, San Francisco went 3-1 this season the average combined score of those games was 38. The defense held all four opponents to 20 points or less.

-- When playing with rest under head coach Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers have seen the ‘under’ cash in all four games. They’ve gone 2-2 in those games (both wins this season) but the defense surrendered a combined 13 points.

-- This nugget from VI handicapper Alex Smart is a good one and it focuses on Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and his success with rest. Per Smart “Reid is 20-5 to the ‘under’ when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with the combined average score of those games clicking in at 39 PPG.

-- The Super Bowl has had 11 totals close in the fifties and the ‘under’ has gone 7-4 in those games. Diving deeper into those matchups, the low side has gone 5-2 in the last seven Super Bowls with a total higher than 50 points.

-- In the five Super Bowl wins for the 49ers, the defense has only allowed 17.8 PPG.

-- Kansas City averaged 16.5 PPG in its only two Super Bowl appearances.

Super Bowl 54 Best Bet
Total (Over/Under) Predictions

I was happy to produce a solid regular season mark (29-22, 57%) with my totals but my reckless 6-9 mark in the postseason certainly hurt the overall results. We’re still in the black (barely) on the season and while I don’t go nuts on Super Bowl wagers since it is just one game, I’m confident in these selections. You can hear more of my handicapping approach and analysis on the Bet and Collect Podcast with Kevin Rogers. Thanks for your feedback and support all season!

As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

I believe we’re going to see plenty of scores in this game but I’m not sure how many points will be posted. Kansas City has proven that it can move the chains on anybody but this will be its toughest defensive test. San Francisco’s offense might not appear as explosive yet it had more big plays (106) than the Chiefs (75) this season. A big play is a pass completion of 25-plus yards and a running play of 10-plus yards.

Defensively, the 49ers have a huge edge and I believe the Chiefs will be exposed in this spot. In my opinion, I believe Kansas City has faced three solid quarterbacks on the road this season that have quality offensive talent surrounding them. Those teams were the Lions, Titans and Chargers. Yes, I’m leaving out the Patriots and Tom Brady because New England’s offense was a mess. In those games against Detroit, Tennessee and Los Angeles, the Chiefs allowed an average of 27.3 PPG and 418 defensive yards.

With all that being said, I believe Jimmy G and the San Francisco offense is more potent than those teams and that has me playing the San Francisco 49ers Team Total Over 26 ½.

Another wager that caught my eye was the 1st Quarter Over 10 Points. The 49ers averaged 6.7 PPG in the first 15 minutes of their games this season and that number went up on the road to 6.9 PPG. Per Matt Blunt’s Super Bowl Total Analysis piece, the 49ers and Chiefs both saw 10 or more points scored in 12 of their 18 games. If you aren’t a math wizard, that’s a 67 percent clip to get double-digits and I’ll place the buy order here.

San Francisco 49ers Team Total Over 26 ½
1st Quarter Over 10 Points