Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

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NFLNovember's Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/12/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/11/2018 9-14-1 39.13% -32.00
11/08/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/05/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
11/04/2018 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00
11/01/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00

Totals............18-32-1.......35.00%.....-87.00


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Best Bets For November

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

11/12/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50..............-11.00
11/11/2018..............2 - 5.................-17.50....................2 - 4...............-12.00.............-29.50
11/08/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50...............-11.00
11/05/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................1 - 0...............+5.00..............-0.50
11/04/2018..............3 - 4.................-7.00......................3 - 4...............-7.00...............-14.00
11/01/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50...............-11.00

Totals......................5 -13.................-46.50...................6 - 11...............-30.50..............-77.00

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Tech Trends - Week 11
November 12, 2018
By Bruce Marshall

THURSDAY, NOV. 15

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
GREEN BAY at SEATTLE (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Pack has lost six in a row SU on road and just 1-5 vs. line in those games. Pack “over” 13-5 since mid 2017.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Seahawks, based on “totals” and team trends.

SUNDAY, NOV. 18

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Panthers have covered after their last five SU losses. Lions no covers last three TY. Cam “over” 7-3 last ten.
Tech Edge: Panthers and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dak was 5-2-1 vs. line away LY and 2-3 in 2018. Falcs “over” 4-1 at home TY, but Cowboys “under” 8-1 last nine away.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Falcons, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Both slumping (Cin 0-4 L4, Balt 0-3 L3) vs. spread. Bengals have covered 3 of last 4 at M&T Bank Stadium. Flacco 4-6 vs. spread last 10 at home. “Unders” 4-1 last five meetings, and Raves “under” 6-3 TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags beat Steel twice LY at Heinz Field, but Jags no wins or covers last five TY, and Steel has won and covered 5 in row, Steel “over” 8-3 since late 2017.
Tech Edge: Steelers and “over,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Titans surprising 6-1 as dog this season! Prior to last season and no Luck, Titans just 1-6-1 last 8 in series. Colts unbeaten last 3 vs. line TY, and tossing out the non-Luck 2017 are “over” 16-10 last 26.
Tech Edge: Slight to Colts and “over,” based on extended series and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans have won six straight and covered last three TY. If dog note Houston 6-2 in role with Deshaun at QB. But Skins 6-1 last 7 vs. line at home. Texans “under” 8-3 last 11, Jay Gruden “under” 10-3 last 13.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Texans, if dog, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TAMPA BAY at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs 1-6 SU and vs. line last seven TY, but G-Men 0-4 vs. spread at MetLife. Bucs on 8-2 “over” run since late LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Vance Joseph has covered last two away and 3 of last 4 overall, but still 3-9 vs. line away since LY and 5-15-1 last 21 on board. Broncs have only covered 1 of last 5 in series, and “under” 9-4 last 13 since late 2017. Bolts “under” 13-6 last 19.
Tech Edge: Chargers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at ARIZONA (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Gruden 2-7 vs. line TY, and Raiders 4-16-3 last 23 on board since early LY. Oakland 1-9-2 last 12 vs. spread away from home. Cards actually 5-1-1 vs. line last seven TY. Raiders on 13-3 “under” run since mid 2017, Big Red “under” 9-4 last 13 since late 2017.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Cards, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PHILADELPHIA at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Birds only 3-8-1 last 12 line reg, season but Pederson 12-7 as dog since 2016. Saints however have won last eight SU and covered last seven TY. Saints “over” 7-2 last nine at Superdome, Birds “over” last five as visitor.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Saints, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MINNESOTA at CHICAGO (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Vikes 3-1-2 last six on board TY, though Bears 5-1 vs. spread last six at Soldier Field. Minny “over” 7-3 last ten on road.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.

MONDAY, NOV. 19
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY vs. L.A. RAMS (at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City) (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Chiefs 8-2 vs. line TY, and McVay just 4-8-1 last 13 vs. spread since late LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs, based on team trends.

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Bills release turnover-prone quarterback Nathan Peterman
November 12, 2018
By The Associated Press

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) Nathan Peterman's turnover-over prone days with the Buffalo Bills are over after the second-year player was cut by the team on Monday.

The move was announced as the Bills (3-7) enter their bye week, and not long after coach Sean McDermott backed Peterman earlier in the day.

''I'm still confident in Nate,'' he said.

McDermott's recent decisions, however, did not appear to match his belief in a player who threw seven interceptions in four appearances this season, and 13 overall in nine career games, including a brief playoff stint last season.

Peterman became the odd man out on a team carrying four quarterbacks, and with rookie Josh Allen set to reclaim his starting job after missing four games with a sprained right throwing elbow.

The Bills are off until they host Jacksonville on Nov. 25.

Peterman was passed on the depth chart by Matt Barkley, who took over the starting job in a 41-10 win over the New York Jets on Sunday. McDermott opted to start Barkley, despite having just signed with Buffalo on Oct. 30, and a week after Peterman - starting in place of injured veteran backup Derek Anderson (concussion) - threw three interceptions in a 41-9 loss to Chicago.

Buffalo considered Peterman to be a project in selecting him with a fifth-round pick in the 2017 draft out of Pittsburgh. He spent his final two seasons at Pitt after transferring from Tennessee.

This year, the 24-year-old went from winning a three-way offseason quarterback competition, which also included AJ McCarron, to being off the team entirely.

His starting tenure lasted two series into the third quarter, after which he was pulled in favor of Allen in a season-opening 47-3 loss at Baltimore.

Things unraveled further when Peterman took over after Allen was hurt in the third quarter of a 20-13 loss at Houston on Oct. 14. After hitting Zay Jones for a go-ahead touchdown, Peterman closed the game by throwing two interceptions, including one returned for the decisive score in the final two minutes.

He's best remembered for throwing five interceptions in the first half of his first career start in a 54-24 loss at the Los Angeles Chargers a little under a year ago.

Following the loss, McDermott acknowledged to his players he erred in electing to start Peterman ahead of Tyrod Taylor in a bid to spark an underperforming offense in the midst of a two-game skid.

Taylor reclaimed the starting duties the following week, and closed the season 4-2 in helping Buffalo end a 17-season playoff drought, which had been the longest active streak in North America's four major professional sports.

Overall, including playoffs, Peterman went 69 of 133 for 563 yards and three touchdowns.

Peterman maintained an upbeat approach despite his struggles.

''I'm still here,'' he said, the week leading up to what proved to be his final start against Chicago. ''And every time you're here, every time you step on the field, and you're in this building, I'm always ready. I was ready last week. And I'm going to be ready again this week.''

He also didn't shy away from acknowledging his miscues.

''Mistakes are in the past. I've learned from them. I've taken them to heart. I'll never forget them,'' Peterman said. ''But at the same time, I'll learn from them and move on.''

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Early bettors hit Rams' odds for NFL clash vs. Chiefs; total a whopping 64
Patrick Everson

Jared Goff and Todd Gurley have the Rams atop the NFC with a 9-1 SU mark. Although Los Angeles is just 4-6 ATS, early bettors moved the Rams from -1 to -2 against the Chiefs in Mexico City.

The NFL game everybody has pointed to for weeks is finally on deck, and rightly so, it’s the finale of the Week 11 docket. We check in on the opening lines and early action for that contest and three other notable matchups, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams (-1)

Kansas City is tied with Los Angeles for the best record in the league at 9-1 SU, and Andy Reid’s squad is solo No. 1 against the oddsmakers at 8-2 ATS. That said, the Chiefs couldn’t cover a healthy 16.5-point spread at home in Week 10, coasting past Arizona 26-14.

The Rams bounced back from a loss at New Orleans – their first setback of the season – though they got a stern test in Week 10. Los Angeles (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) held off Seattle 36-31 as a 10-point home chalk.

While pointspreads are generally the most notable betting element, the total in this clash of offensive titans is also a real eye-popper, in a neutral-site Monday night game at high altitude in Mexico City.

“We opened the total at 64. No takers either way yet,” Murray said Sunday evening before addressing the spread. “We opened it Rams -1, and it’s been bet up to Rams -2. This game is a tossup to me. Don’t waste time punting on fourth-and-short or kicking field goals. These teams need touchdowns to keep pace with each other.”

Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of operations for The SuperBook, said while the book doesn't keep such statistics, it is believed that 64 is a record-high opening total.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3)

Chicago is certainly one of the bigger surprises of the 2018-19 season, sitting atop the NFC North through 10 weeks. The Bears (6-3 SU and ATS) won and cashed their last three games, including Sunday’s 34-22 victory over Detroit as 7.5-point home favorites.

Minnesota, which reached the NFC title game last season, can take over first place in the NFC North with a win at Soldier Field. And the Vikings (5-3-1 SU and ATS) are well-rested, coming off their bye after a 24-9 victory over Detroit as 4.5-point home faves in Week 9.

“This game will go a long way to determining the NFC North,” Murray said. “I expect a lot of two-way write in this game. The number has moved slightly to Vikings +3 (-120), as there has been some early support for the ‘dog.”

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-7)

New Orleans is the hottest team in the league, winning eight in a row SU while cashing seven consecutive times. The Saints (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) went to Cincinnati as 6-point favorites in Week 10 and put up a 50-plus burger in a 51-14 victory.

Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia wouldn’t make the playoffs if the season ended today. The Eagles (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS) went off as 7.5-point home faves against Dallas in the Week 10 Sunday nighter, but lost outright 27-20.

The SuperBook posted the Eagles-Saints line prior to Philly’s Sunday night loss, and per standard protocol took down the line during the Eagles-Cowboys game. The number will go back up Monday morning.

“This line may go up,” Murray said, noting the Eagles’ setback might require a line adjustment. “The public will be happy to lay the points with New Orleans. The Saints have been very good to bettors recently.”

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)

Green Bay also wouldn’t be in the playoffs with its .500 record to this point. The Packers (4-4-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) halted a 1-3 SU and ATS skid by dropping Miami 31-12 laying 11 points at home Sunday.

Seattle also has work to do if it hopes to climb back into the postseason picture. The Seahawks (4-5 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) put up a valiant fight against the Los Angeles Rams, but came up just short in a 36-31 loss catching 10 points on the road.

“Another really tough road game for the Packers, after they played at the Rams and at the Patriots” in recent weeks, Murray said. “There will be a lot of money both ways, but I anticipate the public mostly backing Green Bay.”

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

Thursday. November 15

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GREEN BAY (4 - 4 - 1) at SEATTLE (4 - 5) - 11/15/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday. November 18

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CAROLINA (6 - 3) at DETROIT (3 - 6) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 84-51 ATS (+27.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 56-29 ATS (+24.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
DETROIT is 139-176 ATS (-54.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (4 - 5) at ATLANTA (4 - 5) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (5 - 4) at BALTIMORE (4 - 5) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (5 - 3 - 1) at CHICAGO (6 - 3) - 11/18/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 50-78 ATS (-35.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (8 - 1) - 11/18/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (5 - 4) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 5) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 116-149 ATS (-47.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (6 - 3) at WASHINGTON (6 - 3) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (3 - 6) at NY GIANTS (2 - 7) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 64-40 ATS (+20.0 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 38-64 ATS (-32.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 36-59 ATS (-28.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (3 - 6) at LA CHARGERS (7 - 2) - 11/18/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (1 - 8) at ARIZONA (2 - 7) - 11/18/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 38-81 ATS (-51.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 21-43 ATS (-26.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (6 - 2 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 6) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 108-78 ATS (+22.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday. November 19

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KANSAS CITY (9 - 1) vs. LA RAMS (9 - 1) - 11/19/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS is 188-237 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 188-237 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 66-100 ATS (-44.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 68-101 ATS (-43.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS is 41-62 ATS (-27.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 11

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Trend Report
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Thursday. November 15

Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Green Bay is 4-7-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Green Bay's last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games
Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Green Bay's last 16 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Green Bay is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Seattle
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games
Seattle is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Seattle is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games at home
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Green Bay
Seattle is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Green Bay
Seattle is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay



Sunday. November 18

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games
Cincinnati is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games
Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Baltimore is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Cincinnati


Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games
Carolina is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Carolina is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 13 games at home
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Carolina


Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Tennessee is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tennessee's last 13 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
Indianapolis is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Indianapolis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Indianapolis's last 17 games at home
Indianapolis is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Indianapolis is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 13 games when playing at home against Tennessee


Dallas Cowboys
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Dallas's last 18 games
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 9 games on the road
Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 15 games when playing NY Giants
Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Giants's last 16 games
NY Giants is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Giants is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
NY Giants is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Giants's last 15 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay


Houston Texans
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Washington Redskins
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games at home


Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 11 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 9-0-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Pittsburgh's last 21 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Jacksonville
Pittsburgh is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Jacksonville
Pittsburgh is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh
Jacksonville is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
Jacksonville is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 9 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh


Denver Broncos
Denver is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games
Denver is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games
Denver is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Denver is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
LA Chargers is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games at home
LA Chargers is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games at home
LA Chargers is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Denver
LA Chargers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
LA Chargers is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver


Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Oakland's last 16 games
Oakland is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games on the road
Oakland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Arizona is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona's last 13 games
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games at home
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Oakland


Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Philadelphia is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing New Orleans
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 12 games
New Orleans is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Philadelphia
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing at home against Philadelphia


Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-6-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 8-3-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Minnesota is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Chicago is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing Minnesota
Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Chicago is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota



Monday. November 19

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
LA Rams is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
LA Rams is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City

[StarDust Bum]

Opening Line Report - Week 11
Joe Williams

It's Week 11 of the National Football League regular season and we get the most highly anticipated game of the year, as well as a potential Super Bowl preview. And, the game is being played in Mexico City, of course. How disappointing is that for fans of the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams, that neither of these home fan bases get to see this marquee matchup in their home stadium?

On the undercard, the Houston Texans and Washington Redskins is a sleeper game on the Sunday early window. It's a battle of first-place teams in the AFC South and NFC East. Who would have thought this would be an important battle earlier in the season? The Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints is also an interesting battle, albeit one of the teams being below .500. It's still the defending champs on the rope trying desperately to stay in the playoff chase.

Thursday, Nov. 15

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 49)

There has been very little movement on this game so far, with the Seahawks listed at -2 1/2 across all shops except for Treasure Island, as you can still catch the 'Hawks at -2. For a Thursday game, there has been very little movement on the total, too. The over/under is listed at 49 1/2 at most shops, with Atlantis as the outlier at 49.


Sunday, Nov. 18

Carolina Panthers (-4, 51) at Detroit Lions

The Panthers were on the move last week, quietly sauntering into the Steel City as a very under-the-radar 6-2 record. Carolina had their doors blown off by the Pittsburgh Steelers, coughing up 52 points. That shouldn't be a problem against the Lions, a team struggling in all facets of the game.

The money has been on the Panthers, perhaps since they looked so bad last time out and they have had a couple of extra days to prepare since last Thursday. The Stratosphere opened the line at -3 1/2, but it quickly moved up to -4 to get in line with most other shops. If you're loving the Panthers, you can still try Treasure Island, who had Carolina at -3 as of Monday afternoon.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 47.5)

The Cowboys are coming off a potential season-saving win on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Falcons had their doors blown off on the road by the lowly Cleveland Browns. Bettors are apparently feeling the 'Boys, down from -3 1/2 to -3 at Jerry's Nugget, while dropped from -4 1/2 to -3 1/2 at Westgate Superbook.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4, OFF)

The underdog has connected in seven of the past nine in this series, while the Bengals have posted a 7-3 ATS in the past 10 in this series. The line is available offshore at Sportsbook.ag, opening at -3 1/2, bumping up to -4 1/2, and then back down to -4. It isn't available at most shops with the availability of QB Joe Flacco up in the air. The total is also off the board everywhere.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans (-9, 54.5)

The defending champs are on the ropes and heading down to the Crescent City with long odds. This line opened at Caesars/Harrah's at -7 1/2, quickly moving up to -8 1/2 during the course of the day on Monday. Westgate opened at -7 and quickly moved to -7 1/2, but if you are feeling the Saints you can still catch them at a good number.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 48)

A couple of weeks ago this game didn't look terribly attractive, but the Titans have rattled off two impressive wins in a row, while the Colts are on a three-game heater. Tennessee heads into this one with a perfect 6-0 ATS mark over their past six inside the division, although they're just 19-42-2 ATS in the past 65 against AFC foes overall. The Colts are 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 inside the division, but 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 home games against teams with a winning road mark. TI opened this one at -1 1/2, moving up to 2.

Many other shops opened this game at -3, and it's down to -2 1/2 or -2. People are liking the Titans early on, but you can expect money to pour in on the Colts at some point.

Houston Texans (-3, 42.5) at Washington Redskins

The line of this game has settled into the -3 neighborhood at most shops, although TI was offering it up at -2 1/2 as of late Monday afternoon if you have a early strong lean toward Houston. As far as the total, it has tumbled slightly from 43 to 42 1/2.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (PK, 51)

The Bucs have settled on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick on the starting job yet again this week, while the Giants are coming off a rare win on Monday night in San Francisco. The line bounced back and forth at most shops from Giants -1 to pick 'em. There is likely to be a little belief in the Giants after their win on Monday, but bettors might not be all-in since they still have just two wins and they're playing on a short week.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 46.5)

After Week 10, the Bolts picked up another double-digit win on the road while continuing to fly under the radar in their own city, with the Rams garnering most of the headlines.

This line has been a flat seven at all but one shop, TI, which is offering the Chargers at -6 1/2. Denver heads in just 2-6 ATS in the past eight against winning teams and 1-6 ATS in the past seven inside the division. The Bolts are 5-2 ATS in the past seven inside the division.

Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-4, 40.5)

The Raiders and Cardinals have each had some difficulty this season, and they'll be picking early in the 2019 NFL Draft. After giving the Kansas City Chiefs a pretty good shot last week, bettors are liking the Cards. Atlantis had the Cards -3 1/2, moving up to -4. The line toggled between -4, -3 1/2 and back up to -4 at Caesars, while if you like the Raiders check out TI, who has the line at -4 1/2.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 47.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Steelers cannot seem to stop anyone on defense, although they're clicking on offense while getting past the Le'Veon Bell drama and just concentrating on what they have in house right now. The Jaguars have been a huge disappointment, opening strong, but internal problems and injuries have killed any early-season momentum.

Westgate Superbook opened this game at -3 1/2, quickly shooting up to -5 1/2 in less than 24 hours. No one is feeling the Jags at home. The only place the line actually dropped was Atlantis, going from -6 to -5 1/2.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3, 45.5)

This NFC North battle has been flexed into the Sunday night game, and it should be a good black and blue battle. If you're feeling the Bears, check out Southpoint, as they're offering Chicago at -2 1/2. TI opened it up at just -1 1/2, slowly moving to -2. You can expect plenty of movement on this one.


Monday, Nov. 19

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 63.5)

The Chiefs and Rams currently has a total higher than any line, since lines have been tracked, in the history of the NFL. Vegas is expecting a shootout, or tiroteo if you like since it's in Mexico.

The total actually opened at 64 at Westgate and fell slightly to 63 1/2 to get in line with most other shops. They also opened the Rams at just -1, quickly moving up to -2 1/2 during the course of 20 hours. As of Monday night, most everywhere had the Rams at that line. However, this game is likely to see a ton of movement since it's a marquee game on a Monday night. Expect a lot of attention and perhaps the largest handle of the season for any one game.

[StarDust Bum]

Games to Watch - Week 11
November 13, 2018
By YouWager.eu

NFL Games to Watch - Week 11

The top teams in each of the conferences are starting to pull away from the pack, but there are still plenty of teams below the top two spots in the AFC and NFC with a legitimate shot at a playoff spot.

The final few weeks of the season will sort out the men from the boys, as those teams currently sitting on the edge will either step up or fade away. There are a lot of important games on the NFL Week 11 schedule, starting on Thursday night with a crucial NFC match-up.

Let’s take a closer look at four games that should really be required viewing in Week 11 with all the odds, props and futures offered by YouWager.eu.

Green Bay Packers (+2½ +100) at Seattle Seahawks (-2½ -120)

Both of these teams are currently sitting outside the playoffs looking in, but both are also close enough that a solid finish to the season could get them into the postseason. The Packers have been surprisingly average this season, thanks in large part to their inability to win on the road, where they are currently at 0-4. Ordinarily, that would mean trouble with a trip to Seattle, but the Seahawks are also a surprise, going just 1-2 in their own building this season. This is a crucial game for both teams and one that is likely to go down to the wire. I may change my mind in the next couple of days, but right now I am on the Packers.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5½) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5½)

When the playoffs began last season, we all just sort of sat back and waited for the inevitable meeting between the Steelers and the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. That never panned out, though, as Jacksonville went into Heinz Field and came away with a stunning victory in the divisional round. The Steelers will be out looking for revenge this weekend, and given how they have been playing, it is going to be tough to bet against them. The Jags know that their season is likely done with a loss, so expect a fight, although one that they will ultimately lose.

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Philadelphia Eagles (+9 +115) at New Orleans Saints (-9 -105)

Could this prove to be the week where we see a changing of the guard in the NFC? The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles are on the brink of elimination from playoff contention, while the New Orleans Saints are arguably the best that the conference has to offer. The Saints have been perfect since losing to Tampa Bay in Week 1 of the season, while the Eagles have struggled to find any sort of consistency, and they are now sitting at 4-5. Given the state of things in the conference, it’s not being to dramatic to suggest that a loss here could do them in. I like the Saints to get that win.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2½) at Los Angeles Rams (-2½)

After a slew of mediocre Monday night match-ups, we finally get an absolute beauty in Week 11. The Chiefs have the best record in the AFC, while the Rams are right up there in the NFC. Both of these teams are dynamic on the offensive side of the football, which may explain why the point total has been set at over 60 points for this one. We are in for a good old-fashioned slugfest here, as well as a game that may come down to who gets the ball last. I’m giving a slight edge to the Rams in a game that's expected to be played in Mexico City.

[StarDust Bum]

Bengals fire DC after rout by Saints
November 12, 2018
By The Associated Press

CINCINNATI (AP) Marvin Lewis got the Bengals' head coaching job because of his reputation for defensive excellence. He's now in charge of trying to resuscitate a historically bad unit and pulling Cincinnati's season back from the brink.

The Bengals fired defensive coordinator Teryl Austin on Monday, a day after a 51-14 loss to the Saints that ranks among the worst in franchise history. New Orleans scored on every possession except the last one - when it took a knee while in field-goal range - during its rout at Paul Brown Stadium.

The fading Bengals (5-4) fired a coordinator in midstream for the second season in a row. And it's up to Lewis to get hands-on and try to fix the mess while filling two roles at once.

''Teryl worked very hard, but I just felt like we have to rock their world, shake things up,'' Lewis said.

The timing was curious. The Bengals were coming off their bye week that would have given them time to adapt to a change at coordinator. Now, they're changing on the fly while getting ready for a pivotal AFC North game at Baltimore (4-5) on Sunday.

Lewis made another interesting move, re-hiring fired Browns coach Hue Jackson, who served as his offensive coordinator in 2014 and 2015. Jackson, who was dismissed by Cleveland on Oct. 29 after winning just three games in two-plus seasons, will take on an unspecified role within Lewis' staff, a person familiar with the decision told The Associated Press on Monday night.

The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the team has not announced Jackson's addition.

The Bengals host the Browns on Nov. 25.

Lewis took the defense aside a few times on Sunday, trying to clear up confusion. While he won't change the defensive schemes, he'll try to bring more clarity to players' responsibilities.

''They want help: `Give me something,''' Lewis said.

The Bengals have given up at least 500 yards in three straight games - a first in the Super Bowl era - and are on pace to give up an NFL record for yards in a season . In the past four games, Cincinnati has allowed 481, 551, 576 and 509 yards.

Lewis has one thing in his favor: The schedule is far more favorable the rest of the way.

Cincinnati has faced six offenses currently ranked in the league's Top 10 - Tampa Bay (No. 1), Kansas City (3), Pittsburgh (4), New Orleans (5), Atlanta (6) and Indianapolis (9). Only two are left on the schedule: the Chargers (8) and the Steelers again.

With three losses in the past four games, Cincinnati has fallen from first place to trailing Pittsburgh (6-2-1) by two games in the loss column. They can't afford to fall any further behind, which was a factor in the firing.

''They're trying to get things fixed now,'' defensive end Carlos Dunlap said. ''If you weren't paying attention, you're paying attention now.''

It's the second time during his 16-season tenure in Cincinnati that Lewis has gotten directly involved in the defense.

The Bengals hired him in 2003 in large part because of his reputation for defensive coaching - he coordinated the Ravens' Super Bowl-championship defense in the 2000 season. Defense has been a regular challenge during his tenure.

Lewis became so frustrated with the defense in 2004 that he took over play-calling from coordinator Leslie Frazier during a game against Cleveland. The Bengals lost 34-17 and Lewis left the defense in Frazier's hands the rest of the way, and then fired him after the season.

Now, he's back in charge.

''We're not playing well, so something had to change,'' safety Jessie Bates said.

Lewis hired Austin from Detroit after defensive coordinator Paul Guenther left to join Jon Gruden with the Raiders. The Bengals gave up a lot of yards while opening the season 4-1, with the defense scoring four touchdowns off fumble and interception returns to overcome the poor showings overall.

With injuries sapping the defense during a stretch of games against the NFL's top offenses, the unit imploded. The Saints scored touchdowns on all five first-half possessions Sunday, and moved the ball easily even when they were running out the clock in the fourth quarter.

The Bengals matched the club record by giving up 28 points in the second quarter. The 51 points allowed were one shy of the club record.

Austin is the fourth coordinator fired in the NFL this season. Tampa Bay fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith, Arizona fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, and the Browns fired head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley.

Jackson has a close relationship with Lewis, who has declined to discuss whether he'd bring him back to Cincinnati. Jackson coached on both offense and defense in Cincinnati.

Last year, the Bengals fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese after an 0-2 start, but the Bengals missed out on the playoffs for the second year in a row. Lewis got a two-year contract extension after the season even though he's 0-7 in the playoffs - an NFL record for futility.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 11

Thursday

Packers (4-4-1) @ Seahawks (4-5)— Green Bay is 0-4 on the road this year, 1-1 as AU; they gave up 31 points in both their games on artificial turf this year- they’re 5-11 vs spread in last 16 games on carpet. Since ’16, Pack is 6-5 as a road dog. Seattle is 4-0 this year when it allows 17 or fewer points, 0-4 when allows more; they lost their last two home games. Home side won last seven series games; Packers lost last three visits here, by 3-20-6 points. This is 5th year in row these teams met, with Green Bay winning last three. Home teams are 8-2 in Thursday games this year; Packers are NFC West non-divisional favorites are 5-6 vs spread; NFC North AU are 4-2. Last three Packer games stayed under total; under is 6-2 in last eight Seattle games.

Sunday

Panthers (6-3) @ Lions (3-6)— Detroit lost its last three games, allowing 28-24-34 points; their OL allowed 16 sacks the last two games. Lions fired their special teams coach LW; they’re 2-2 at home, 4-11-1 vs spread in last 16 games as road underdogs. Carolina won three of its last four games; they’re 1-3 on road, losing 31-24 in only game on artificial turf. Since ’12, Panthers are 6-14-1 as road favorites. Carolina won six of eight meetings, beating Lions 27-24 LY; Panthers lost two of three visits here, with lone win in ’05. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-7, 2-2 on road; NFC North underdogs are 3-4. Last three Carolina games went over; over is 6-3 in Lions’ games this year.

Cowboys (4-5) @ Falcons (4-5)— Dallas is 4-0 when it scores 20+ points, 0-5 when it doesn’t; they’re 1-4 on road, 2-3 as road underdogs- since ’09, they’re 26-16 as road dogs. Cowboys ran ball for 171 yards in Philly in their first game with a new OL coach. Atlanta allowed 20+ points in seven of last eight games; Falcons won three of last four games but lost in Cleveland Sunday- they’re 3-2 at home, 2-3 as HF. Under Quinn, Atlanta is 10-16 as home favorites. Atlanta won four of last six meetings, last of which was in ’15. Teams split last six visits here. NFC East non-divisional AU are 6-3 vs spread; NFC South HF are 3-5. Three of last four Cowboy games, six of last eight Atlanta games went over total.

Bengals (5-4) @ Ravens (4-5)— Rumors are Harbaugh will get fired after season; Flacco’s (hip) status is a ?? here, rookie QB Jackson may start. Bengals fired their DC Monday, so these are two struggling teams fighting for survival. Bengals won first meeting 34-23 (+1) in Week 2; they were +3 in turnovers, had 13-yard edge in field position. Cincy is 9-2 in last 11 series games, winning three of last four visits here. Bengals lost last three of last four games, allowing 45-34-51 points in last three games (15 TD’s on last 31 drives); they allowed 8+ yards/pass attempt in last four games. Ravens lost four of last five games, losing last two home tilts. Baltimore is 13-3 vs spread in last 16 post-bye games. Under is 6-1 in Ravens’ last seven games.

Vikings (5-3-1) @ Bears (6-3)— Battle for first place in NFC North. Minnesota won six of last seven series games, winning last three by 28-3-13 points; Vikings won two of last three visits here. Minnesota won four of its last five games; they’re 21-9 vs spread in last 30 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Vikings are 2-1-1 on road; under Zimmer, they’re 13-8 as road underdogs, 1-1 this year. Chicago won/covered its last three games; they’re 4-1 at home, 4-0 as HF. Bears are +13 in turnovers this year, +6 in last two games, when they outscored opponents 54-7 in first half. Minnesota is 2-7 vs spread in its last nine post-bye games. Five of Bears’ last six games, three of four Minnesota road games went over total.

Eagles (4-5) @ Saints (8-1)— New Orleans won its last eight games, covered last seven; Saints scored 45-51 points in last two games, averaging 9.6/9.8 yds/pass attempt. Saints are 3-1 at home this year, 2-2 as HF; they’re 11-18-1 vs spread in last 30 games as HF. Philly has only one takeaway in its last three games; Eagles lost four of last six games, are 1-2 in true road tilts, with losses by 6-3 points— this is first time this year Philly is an underdog. Under Pederson, Eagles are 5-5 as road dogs. Saints won three of last four series games; last one was in ’15. Philly lost three of last four visits here, last of which was in ’12. NFC East non-divisional AU are 6-3 vs spread; NFC South HF are 3-5. Over is 3-1 in Saints’ home games.

Titans (5-4) @ Colts (4-5)— Titans are 2-0 since their bye, scoring 28-34 points in wins over Cowboys/Patriots- they shut both teams out in 2nd half. Tennessee is 2-2 in true road games, 2-0 as AU; they’ve run ball for 146.3 ypg in last three games, which takes heat off their defense. Tennessee swept series 36-22/20-16 LY, after having lost 16 of previous 17 against the Colts; Titans lost nine of last ten visits here, winning 20-16 LY. Colts won last three games after a 1-5 start, but three teams they beat are combined 7-21. Indy is 2-2 at home, 1-2-1 as HF; they’re 13-11-2 vs spread in last 26 games as HF. Five of last six Indy games went over the total; six of last eight Titans tilts stayed under.

Texans (6-3) @ Redskins (6-3)— Washington is 6-0 when they allow or fewer points, 0-3 when they don’t- they allowed 21-43-38 points in their losses. Redskins 3-2 at home, 1-0 as HU; under Gruden, Skins are 8-8 as home underdogs. Washington is +10 in turnovers in its last five games (12-2). Houston is first team since 1970 to win six games in row after an 0-3 start; they’re 3-2 on road, winning by 3-13-3 points. Texans covered seven of their last eight post-bye games. Houston won last two series games 30-27ot/17-6 after losing first two; teams split two meetings here. AFC South non-divisional AF are 2-3 vs spread; NFC East underdogs are 9-5, 3-2 at home. Four of last five Texan games stayed under total;

Buccaneers (3-6) @ Giants (2-7)— Short week for Giants after 27-23 win Monday night, their first win since Week 3. Big Blue is 0-4 at home this year, scoring 14.8 ppg (under 3-1). Tampa Bay lost three in row, six of last seven games; they’ve turned ball over 23 times in those seven games (-21). Bucs won their opener in Superdome, but lost last four road games, giving up 40.3 ppg; under Koetter, Tampa Bay is 9-8-1 as road underdogs, 2-3 this year. Sunday vs Redskins, Bucs scored on only one of five red zone drives, kicking a FG- they lost 16-3. Giants won five of last six series games, losing 28-25 to Tampa Bay LY; Bucs are 1-7 in series games played here, with lone win in ’97, last visit in ’12. Over is 7-2 in Buccaneer games this season.

Broncos (3-6) @ Chargers (7-2)— Chargers won their last six games, covered four of last five; this is their first home game in six weeks. LA is 2-1 at home, 1-2 as HF; under Lynn, they’re 4-5 as home favorites. Denver lost six of last seven games after a 2-0 start; Broncos are 1-3 on road, losing by 13-18-7 points with a win at Arizona. Under Joseph, Denver is 1-6 as a road underdog. Home side won last five series games; Denver lost 21-13/21-0 in last two series games in SoCal. Broncos won 11 of last 14 series games, but split last four. Four of last five Charger games, six of last eight Denver games stayed under total. Denver is 11-3 vs spread in its last 14 post-bye games. Only teams to beat Chargers this year are Chiefs/Rams, both 9-1 teams.

Raiders (1-8) @ Cardinals (2-7)— Arizona is 1-4 at home this year, beating 49ers 18-15 in last home game; Redbirds are 5-2 vs spread in their last seven games- they’re 7-12 in last 19 games as home favorites. Cardinals are -8 in turnovers in their last three games. Oakland lost its last five games (0-5 vs spread); they’re 0-4 in true road games, 1-3 as road underdogs; they’re 2-8-1 in last 11 games when getting points on road. Raiders have only two takeaways in their last five games. Cardinals won last two meetings, by 1-11 points; Raiders won two of three visits to Arizona. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-7 vs spread; NFC West favorites are 5-6. Under is 6-3 in Arizona games, 4-1 in last five Oakland games.

Steelers (6-2-1) @ Jaguars (3-6)— Pittsburgh won/covered its last five games, scoring 35.4 ppg; Steelers are 3-0-1 on road with wins by 3-7-7 points. 12-11 in last 23 games as road favorites. Jaguars lost their last five games (0-4-1 vs spread); they were outscored 93-19 in first half of those games. Jags scored 20+ points LW for first time since Week 4; they’re 2-2 at home this year, losing by 3-13 points- they’re 8-10 in last 18 games as home dogs. Jacksonville won twice at Heinz Field LY, 45-42 in playoffs after a 30-9 win during regular season; home side lost six of last seven series games. Steelers won four of last five visits here. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 8-4 vs spread, 2-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 7-6, 3-1 at home.

Chiefs (9-1) @ Rams (9-1)— Total of 63.5 is highest-listed total in NFL history. Game was moved to LA because field in Mexico City is messed up. Kansas City won its last four games; LW was only 2nd time this year they scored less than 30 points, first time they averaged less than 7.6 yards/pass attempt. Rams are 5-0 SU at home[ they covered only one of last six games; they’ve given up 27+ points in five of last seven games. Former Chiefs’ CB Peters will be huge in this game, one way or other; he had rough day in Week 9 loss to Saints. Chiefs won last six series games; Rams’ last series win was 16-0 in ’94, last time they faced Montana. Rams practiced in Colorado all week, even after game was put back in LA. Under is 5-2 in Chiefs’ last seven games.

[StarDust Bum]

By: Brandon DuBreuil


RAMS-CHIEFS MOVED TO LA

The NFL made a major announcement Tuesday, moving the Rams-Chiefs game set for Monday night out of Mexico City due to poor field conditions at Azteca Stadium. The game was originally a Rams home game, so it has been moved back to L.A. Upon announcement, the line moved from Rams -2.5 to -3.5, while the total jumped from 61.5 to 63.5. Most sportsbooks have voided any bets placed before the announcement, so be sure to check with yours if you had placed a bet on an early market.

At 63.5, this is the highest total in NFL history. Prior to the announcement, the Under would’ve been a great play as footing would have been a major issue for the skill players involved. But now the game will be played at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum where the Rams are averaging 34.4 points per game. As for the Chiefs? Well, they’re tops in the NFL in road scoring at 36.8 points per game. At 63.5, backing the Over might sound daunting but there have been 14 instances of totals of 58 or more in the history of the NFL and 11 of those went Over. Jump on the Over before it gets higher and get ready for some fireworks on Monday Night Football.

LE’VEON WILL NOT BE THE BELL COW

Le’Veon Bell did not report to the Pittsburgh Steelers by Tuesday’s 4 p.m. ET deadline, making it official that he will not play football in 2018. The 26-year-old forfeits $14.54 million for the season and should become a free agent in the offseason (although the Steelers could theoretically tag him again). It’s great news for James Conner backers as he will remain Pittsburgh’s bell cow back for the remainder of the season.

Conner left Pittsburgh’s Week 10 blowout win over Carolina early, but it was likely precautionary and he is expected to be at full speed this week at Jacksonville. Ranked seventh in rushing DVOA, the Jaguars aren’t a great matchup on paper but it's a nice spot for Conner as a six-point road favorite. It’s also fair to wonder what Jacksonville’s motivation will be like for the rest of the season as the team that entered the year as an AFC favorite sits at 3-6 and will likely miss the playoffs. Nevertheless, there’s no denying the talent the Jags have on the defensive side of the ball and for that reason, we’re staying away from Conner’s rushing totals and instead back him to score a touchdown at any time.


AARON LOVES AARON

If you’ve been reading this article on a daily basis, you know that we love Packers running back Aaron Jones and we’re an even bigger fan now that he’s hit winning bets for us in back-to-back weeks. Apparently, we’re not the only ones who think Jones is a stud as Aaron Rodgers had this to say about him: "He’s a great player. We just need to continue to give him more opportunities."

Jones has been getting more carries over the past three games with 12, 14, and 15 carries in Weeks 8, 9, and 10, respectively, and he has delivered with rushing performances of 86, 75, and 145 yards. But the most telling statistic about how good Jones has been is that he is averaging a league-high 6.8 yards per attempt, 0.6 yards more than second-place Nick Chubb. This week, Jones and the Packers head to Seattle for Thursday Night Football as a three-point underdog. Seattle has the 10th overall defense in DVOA but slips to 20th when you isolate rush defense. In the past two weeks, the Seahawks have had Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon run all over them for 120 yards and 113 yards, respectively, and we expect Jones to push towards the 100-yard plateau as well. Take the Over 74.5 on his rushing yards total.


DIGGS SAYS HE’S READY

Minnesota receiver Stefon Diggs said, “I know I will play” when asked about Week 11 and also mentioned that he practiced on Monday. Diggs injured his ribs in the loss to New Orleans in Week 8, sat out Week 9, and had the bye last week to heal in time for Sunday night’s NFC North showdown in Chicago.

Diggs is having a fantastic season and we normally wouldn’t think about fading him, but we have no other choice this week. He returns to face a Bears defense that ranks first in overall DVOA and fourth against the pass. Then there’s the weather: a night game in mid-November in Chicago where the early forecast calls for temperatures in the 20s. Catching a football is a lot harder in the cold and, despite its geographical location, Minnesota is now a dome team. We’ll be grabbing the Under on Diggs’ receiving yards total when the market opens later in the week.


KEKE, DO YOU LOVE HIM?

Houston coach Bill O’Brien made it sound like receiver Keke Coutee will suit up on Sunday, saying “I think Keke is trending upwards. I think Keke’s headed in the right direction." Coutee missed the Texans’ two games prior to their bye last week with a hamstring injury but it sounds like he’ll be back on the field as Houston visits Washington on Sunday afternoon.

Predicting Coutee’s usage for Sunday is extremely difficult for two reasons: One, Demaryius Thomas is now a Texan and two, Houston has made a concerted effort to run the ball over the last three weeks. Coutee will slide into his slot role but Washington hasn’t been overly susceptible to the position, holding Adam Humphries to just two catches a week ago and Mohamed Sanu to four catches two weeks ago in a game where Matt Ryan completed 26 passes. Week 11 is not a great spot for Coutee and with a soft-tissue injury, there’s always the added risk of re-injury. We’re going to fade him and take the Under on his receptions total.

[StarDust Bum]

Ugly Dogs - Week 11
November 14, 2018
By BetDSI

By Tom Wilkinson

NFL Week 11 Ugly Dogs

If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to go against the grain. One of the ways to do that is to take teams that no one else wants to bet. I call them ugly dogs and last week those ugly dogs went 3-1 against the spread, and in the last six weeks they are 15-8 ATS.

There are just two ugly dog plays this week, but we’ll also take a look at a game that matches up two ugly dogs playing each other. Let’s look at the Week 11 ugly dog picks.

Check out the latest Week 11 NFL odds at BetDSI

Oakland Raiders +4 at Arizona Cardinals

The Oakland Raiders are a complete mess. They spent $100 million on head coach Jon Gruden and that decision looks like a disaster, as the Raiders are terrible on both sides of the ball. The Raiders have the worst record in the NFL at 1-8 and their only win came in overtime against Cleveland. The Raiders are 30th in the NFL in points scored and 30th in points against. The only player who looks like he is worth watching is running back Doug Martin who at least seems to be playing hard.

On the other side, the Cardinals are losing, but they are playing hard. They played well last week, but couldn’t get past the juggernaut Chiefs. Arizona is just 2-7 on the season but they have some talent on offense with David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald and some talented players on defense led by Patrick Peterson. It is really hard to make a case for taking the Raiders in any situation right now, which is why they are an ugly dog. It is hard to do, but we’ll take the Raiders plus the points in this one.

Detroit Lions +4 vs. Carolina Panthers

The Lions have fallen into the ugly dog category, as they come into this game at 3-6 and on a three-game losing streak. The Lions are poorly coached by Matt Patricia and they have an overrated quarterback in Matthew Stafford. The Lions are 20th in the NFL in points per game and even worse on defense, as they rank 28th in the league in points allowed.

The Lions are at home, but they are facing a Carolina team that should be very angry after a bad loss last week to Pittsburgh. The question with the Panthers is whether that loss was just an aberration or whether the Panthers are overrated. We’ll take the Lions as an ugly dog play in this game against the Panthers.

Ugly Dog Matchup

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 at New York Giants

The Bucs and Giants come into this game with a combined record of 5-13. The Giants are actually coming off a win, as they beat San Francisco on Monday night, while the Bucs put up a lot of yards against the Redskins but still lost. The Bucs are still going with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback this week, while the Giants are still stuck with Eli Manning. The Bucs have shown flashes this season of being a good team, but they make too many mistakes to win games consistently.

Part of that is coaching and the Bucs should have a new head coach next season, as Dirk Koetter should have been fired long ago. The coaching on the other side of this game is no better, as Pat Shurmur has no clue with the Giants. The Giants have some talented players including Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr., but New York is disorganized and unprepared on a weekly basis.

Many bettors will look to the Giants win over the 49ers and think that New York can handle the Bucs in this game at home. If the Giants were well coached I would agree, but the Giants make too many mistakes and they are still stuck with Manning at quarterback. This is not an official play since both teams are ugly dogs, but I will take the points with the Bucs in this matchup.

[StarDust Bum]

Underdog Plays - Week 11
November 14, 2018
By Bookmaker

by Kyle Markus

NFL Football Odds - Top NFL Underdog Plays Of Week 11

There were some notable wins by the underdogs in the most recent slate of NFL games, and many others at least covered the spread without coming away with the victory. The Week 11 schedule is an interesting one, and the underdogs would love to follow in those footsteps and make some more upset bids.

The top teams in the NFL are making their playoff push and would love to hold off their opponents, as many will be favored. However, underdogs always tend to be intriguing plays in the NFL and the Week 11 group will be no exception. Here are some of the most promising underdog plays of the week in NFL wagering:

Odds Analysis - per BookMaker.eu

The Chicago Bears have taken a huge step forward this season and are now atop the NFC North more than midway through the season. The Minnesota Vikings aren’t far behind and are hoping to live up to the billing of preseason favorites. Chicago is at home in this matchup and has been pegged as the 3-point favorite. It is a lot of respect given by the oddsmakers, and while the Bears have looked good lately, Minnesota has the experience needed for this big-time showdown. The Vikings are the pick not only to cover the spread but to pull off the upset as the +130 underdogs on the moneyline.

The Philadelphia Eagles are hitting the road against the New Orleans Saints, who are employing an offense that looks unstoppable. The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles have not put it together this season and now have their backs against the wall. The Saints are large 9-point home favorites as the Eagles are going to have a tough time defending the pass. Even so, Philly’s offense should make some plays of its own. The Eagles are the choice to keep this one closer than expected and cover the spread.

The wheels have fallen off for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have lost five consecutive games after making it to the AFC Championship game a season ago. They lost on the road last week against the Colts and now face a must-win home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Jaguars are 6-point home underdogs, a spread that would have been unexpected when the year began. Jacksonville has been having issues, but look for it to finally put together a good performance. The cover is the safe play, but also consider the Jaguars at +211 to pull off the upset on the moneyline.

Free NFL ATS Picks

The best underdog choice is also in the biggest game of the week. The Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs are tied for the best record in the NFL and will face off in a possible Super Bowl preview. The game was supposed to be played in México City, but poor field conditions moved it back to the Los Angeles Coliseum. That is a bonus for the Rams, who no longer have to play at a neutral site and now get this one at home.

The oddsmakers have pegged the Rams the slightly superior team, and they are 3.5-point favorites. The Chiefs’ defense is not very good and it’s easy to understand why the Rams are the favorite. The Rams should have a big day on the ground, but Kansas City’s offense is better and should make this a back-and-forth affair. This spread is too large as the Chiefs have the most dynamic offense in the NFL and can put up points against anyone.

Kansas City is the pick to capture this road upset of the Rams, although it should be close. The spread is a good place to start, and when the moneyline is released jumped on the favorable odds of the Chiefs in NFL gambling.

NFL ATS Pick: Kansas City to upset L.A. Rams

[StarDust Bum]

By: Brandon DuBreuil


WILSON HAS FOUND HIS LEGS

It’s Thursday! The NFL week officially gets underway tonight with a solid matchup as the Green Bay Packers visit the Seattle Seahawks, and as per tradition, we kick off the article with a prop bet (or two or three if you count yesterday’s suggestion of the Over for Aaron Jones’ rushing yards total of 74.5).

If you’ve been watching the Seahawks over the past two weeks you’ve probably noticed that Russell Wilson is starting to look more like, well, Russell Wilson. The four-time Pro Bowler is at his best when he’s a dual threat and it looks like he might be starting to use his legs again.

From Week 1 through Week 8, Wilson had rushed for a total of 118 yards with just 16.8 yards per game, well below his career average of 33.2. But then in Week 9 he ran for 41 yards on five carries and in Week 10 he gained 92 yards on nine carries. What did these two games have in common? The Seahawks got behind and had to play catch up — something that could very well happen again tonight against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Wilson’s rushing total for tonight is set at 24.5, which seems to be more reflective of his season total than what he has been doing lately. We think Wilson makes a few plays with his legs tonight and we’re backing the Over for his rushing total.


OFFENSE TRENDING FOR TNF

The total for tonight’s game is set relatively high at 48.5 but there are a few reasons to believe it’ll easily get up into the 50s. Let’s start with the Packers’ defense, which has been a completely different unit at home than on the road. At Lambeau, Green Bay is allowing just 18.8 points per game but on the road that number balloons to 30.5, fifth-worst in the NFL. The short week is also hurting the Packers’ defense as three starters were left behind in Wisconsin: linebacker Nick Perry, safety Kentrell Brice, and cornerback Kevin King.

On the other sideline, Seattle’s Legion of Boom is long gone, especially at home where they are allowing 160.3 rushing yards per game, second-most in the NFL. The Seahawks are better against the pass by allowing just 228.3 passing yards per game but have been more susceptible of late, having allowed 8.2 yards per attempt over the last three games. Plus, it’s Aaron Rodgers in primetime. He isn't having the best statistical season of his career but we’re still not betting against him. Take the Over 48.5.


JONES NOT PRACTICING

Detroit receiver Marvin Jones did not practice on Wednesday after being forced from Sunday’s game against Chicago with a bone bruise in his knee. His status for Week 11 against Carolina is on the wrong side of questionable, especially with Detroit playing on Thanksgiving in Week 12. Jones has taken on a larger role with 15 targets in the two weeks since Golden Tate was traded, and if he can’t suit up on Sunday Matthew Stafford will be looking in Kenny Golladay’s direction.

Golladay was also expected to absorb some of Tate’s production but it didn’t really happen until the fourth quarter of Sunday’s game against Chicago where he turned eight targets into three catches for 31 yards and a touchdown. This happened largely due to the fact that the Lions were down by a lot but that could happen again this week as a four-point home underdog. Assuming Jones can’t go on Sunday, Golladay is going to be a target monster and his usage alone will be worth backing. His opponent this week, the Carolina Panthers, have given up 300 or more passing yards in each of their past two road games. The second-year receiver is in a nice spot to possibly have one of the biggest days of his career on Sunday and we’re taking the Over on his receiving yards total.


CROWDED BUCS BACKFIELD

Tampa Bay running back Peyton Barber (ankle, shoulder) was limited in practice Wednesday but is expected to play in Week 11 at the Giants. The ankle injury has bothered him for a couple of weeks now while the shoulder seems to be a new ailment. Rookie running back Ronald Jones, meanwhile, returned to practice on a limited basis and is expected to play on Sunday after missing the past three games. Then there’s Jacquizz Rodgers, who is the healthiest of the bunch and has crept up over the 30 percent mark in snaps for each of the past four weeks. Quizz has worked his way into the third-down back role and is running 20.6 pass routes per game over his last three games.

The Giants are not a terrible matchup for running backs with a defense that ranks 19th in rushing DVOA. But there are two big reasons to fade Barber on Sunday. First, he’s banged up and part of a three-man running back committee. Second, he’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, meaning he needs volume to put up big numbers. We don’t see Barber getting enough touches to do much on Sunday against the Giants so we’re taking the Under on his rushing yards total.


OBJ ALL DAY

There is a matchup we love in the Giants-Buccaneers game, however, with Odell Beckham Jr. primed to have a big afternoon. Beckham is trending regardless of who he plays with 6.8 catches for 105.4 yards per game and four total touchdowns over his last five. This week, he gets his best matchup of the season as Tampa Bay just can’t cover top receivers, allowing an average of 7.2 receptions to the opponent’s WR1 — and that average has actually gone down over the past two weeks as the opposing WR1s were Josh Doctson and Devin Funchess.

Another reason to think OBJ is in for a big day is that this game is looking like a shootout. The total is set at 52, which isn’t absurdly high for the NFL this season but still a big number. But here’s the kicker: In Tampa Bay’s road games this season, the average total score is a whopping 70 and the opponent is averaging 40.2 points per game. We expect the Giants to be the latest team to have a big day at home against the Bucs and Beckham will lead the way. Take the Over on his receiving yards total and maybe have a look at the Over for the Total.

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Packers at Seahawks
November 15, 2018
By Tony Mejia

Green Bay at Seattle (-3, 49), 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

The first meeting between Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson produced one of the NFL’s most memorable finishes. You remember the “Fail Mary,” right? Replacement refs butchered the call, Golden Tate was awarded a touchdown he didn’t deserve and the Packers went home losers of a game in which Rodgers was sacked eight times.

The Packers star won his first visit to Seattle but comes into Thursday night’s crucial clash against the Seahawks 1-2 at Century Link Field, having also lost the 2014 season opener. Rodgers has posted wins in each of the past three seasons, but all of those meetings came at Lambeau Field.

This latest matchup finds both perennial NFC title contenders on the outside looking in as far as making the playoffs is concerned. With this being the 10th game for both, the sense of urgency is ratcheted up as all excuses go out the window. It doesn’t matter that this is a short week for both or that this will be the fourth time each takes the field in a 20-day span. The winner gets to have a nice, hopeful Thanksgiving while the loser faces a miserable time since they’ll be a sub-.500 team facing must-wins the rest of the way.

Green Bay has yet to win on the road this season, losing to heavyweights like the Rams and Patriots in addition to setbacks against the Redskins and Lions. The 12th Man has only witnessed a single Seahawks victory this season – way back in September against Dallas. Seattle came up short against the Rams and Chargers in games they were in all four quarters, but its feared homefield advantage has been neutralized of late.

Dating back to November of last season, the Seahawks have won only two of seven home games. They fell 36-31 against the Rams on Sunday, coming up short on a comeback bid as Wilson tried to rally his team despite starting RB Chris Carson being scratched prior to kickoff.

Wilson, who has thrown three touchdown passes in four of the past five games, ran for a season-best 92 yards in the loss, his highest total since Nov. 2014. Clearly, desperation has set in as he’s hit ‘whatever it takes’ mode since he’d rushed for just 118 yards over his first eight starts.

Jared Goff and Todd Gurley dominated a new-look Seattle defense that surrendered a season-high 36 points, so they’ll be under pressure to turn things around with Rodgers coming into town fresh off his fifth consecutive game without throwing an interception.

Despite still being hampered by a knee issue since being injured in Week 1, Rodgers ran a season-high six times in posting a 31-12 home win over the Dolphins that helped snap a two-game losing streak. His TD-to-INT ratio is 17-1, so it’s going to be difficult for the Seahawks to turn him over. Only Jared Goff has managed to pass for over 300 yards against Seattle’s defense over the past eight weeks, and they do rank seventh with 10 interceptions and eighth with six forced fumbles.

The Packers will be facing the NFL’s top rushing offense at full strength since Carson is expected to return from the hip injury that sidelined him in L.A. Rookie Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis teamed with Wilson to try and effectively play keep-away from the Rams offense, giving them a chance and ultimately, helping score a backdoor cover despite the loss.

Expect a heavy dose of the run since Pete Carroll knows enough that he doesn’t fully trust his defense to contain Rodgers and will want to control possession. Green Bay leads the NFL with 31 sacks and has DT Kenny Clark playing at an extremely high level, so the Seahawks will likely look to protect Wilson by riding the ground game so long as they remain within striking distance.

Weather won’t be a factor on what’s expected to be a clear, 50-degree night in Seattle, so the offense should have solid conditions to work with. Read on for thoughts on the total, line movements, injury news, info on past meetings, props and next week’s betting numbers.


Green Bay Packers
Season win total: 10 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win NFC North: 6/1 to 13/4
Odds to win NFC: 20/1 to 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1 to 25/1

Seattle Seahawks
Season win total: 7.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds to win NFC West: OFF to OFF
Odds to win NFC: 100/1 to 150/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 200 to 300/1

LINE MOVEMENT

The Seahawks were +280 to reach the playoffs in the prop available at Westgate before this season began while the Packers went off at -180. The Packers were 17-to-10 to win the NFC North, listed only behind the Vikings (11/10), while Seattle wasn 11/2, trailing the 49ers (7/2) and Rams (1/2), whose dominance has taken the NFC West off the board.

The Packers were 6-to-1 to capture the NFC and 12-to-1 to win the Super Bowl when the season began. Seattle went off at 30/1 to win the NFC and 60/1 to prevail as champion, so odds are much more lucrative at the moment.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Seahawks were a 2-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced last week and opened at -2.5 before reaching the 3-point spread that was the consensus on Thursday morning.

Seattle opened at -140 on the money line and is available at -145/150 at the moment. If you like the home 'dog outright, a payout on a Packers win will get you +120 to +135 depending on the shop.


INJURY CONCERNS

The Seahawks are the much healthier team, so if you're wondering why a team that's perceived to be superior in terms of current betting futures and preseason expectations is listed as the underdog, there's your answer. Only linebacker K.J. Wright is listed as doubtful, while corner Neiko Thorpe and safety Delano Hill are questionable. The list of players in doubt is far longer on Green Bay's side of things.

Rodgers was one of a number of guys who skipped practice on Monday but he's good to go. The hope is that corner Bashaud Breeland will be able to play since CB Kevin King has been ruled out. LB Blake Martinez should be out there despite an ankle issue, but Nick Perry won't be due to a knee injury. Safety Kentrell Brice won't play either, while the offense will be without Rodgers' security blanket Randall Cobb. Tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga, both dealing with knee issues, are expected to be out there protecting Rodgers.


TOTAL TALK

The ‘over/under’ on this matchup opened at 49 and the number has held steady as of Thursday morning. Weekly “Total Talk” writer Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on this matchup:

This isn’t an easy total to handicap and for viewing purposes I hope we finally get a tight game on Thursday as the last six outcomes have been decided by an average margin of 25.5 PPG. In the midweek game this season, we’ve watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 and the winning team is averaging 35.6 PPG.

While another shootout is expected by the oddsmakers, I believe this game will fall ‘under’ the total for a variety of reasons. Seattle is a run-first team (152.2 YPG) and it’s coming off a 273-yard performance in a tight loss to the Rams. The ground-and-pound approach keeps runs the clock and it also helps give the defense rest. Most pundits point to Seattle’s unit (21.3 PPG) as a weakness and it’s certainly not on the same level as previous seasons but it’s proven to be decent statistically.

Green Bay (24 PPG) still has issues on the defensive side of the ball and it’s been worse on the road (30.5 PPG) but you can argue that allowing 29 and 31 in their last two road trips to the Rams and Patriots respectively was an improvement. Seattle isn’t on the same level of those teams and I’d be surprised to see Green Bay allow 30-plus points on Thursday.

I also believe the Packers will try to run the ball, especially after posting 195 on the ground in last week’s win albeit to the worst run defense in Miami. Knowing Green Bay hasn’t won back-to-back games this season and this is a must-win matchup, perhaps a run-first approach should be stressed.

For our purposes, Green Bay has leaned slightly to the ‘over’ (5-4) this season but Seattle is one of eight teams in the NFL that have watched the ‘under’ go 6-3. These teams are familiar with one another, having played in each of the last four regular seasons and once in the playoffs. The ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in those games with and that includes a 2-0 mark in the contests played at CenturyLink Field.

Along with leaning to the ‘under’ (49) in the game, I would also press the ‘under’ on the Team Total for both the Packers (23 ½) and Seahawks (25 ½) as well.


RECENT MEETINGS (Green Bay 7-3 SU, 7-2-1 ATS last 10; UNDER 5-5)

9/10/17 Green Bay 17-9 vs. Seattle (GB -2.5, 49.5)
12/11/16 Green Bay 38-10 vs. Seattle (GB +3, 47)
9/20/15 Green Bay 27-17 vs. Seattle (GB -3, 49)
9/4/14 Seattle 36-16 vs. Green Bay (SEA -8.5, 45)
9/24/12 Seattle 14-12 vs. Green Bay (SEA +3.5, 45.5)
12/27/09 Green Bay 48-10 vs. Seattle (GB -13.5, 43.5)
10/12/08 Green Bay 27-17 at Seattle (GB +1, 44.5)
11/27/06 Seattle 34-24 vs. Green Bay (SEA -10, 42.5)
1/1/06 Green Bay 23-17 vs. Seattle (GB -3, 40.5)
10/5/03 Green Bay 35-13 vs. Seattle (GB -1, 45)


PROPS

Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride the first challenge being successful because most refs are terrible and will take a shot that the first turnover is a fumble. I'd also recommend riding the second half as the game's highest-scoring.

Team to reach 10 points first: (Packers +100, Seahawks -120)
Team to reach 20 points first: (Packers +105, Seahawks -125)
Team to score first: (Packers -110, Seahawks -110)
Team to score last: (Packers -110, Seahawks -110)
Team to challenge first: (Packers -110, Seahawks -110)
First score: (Touchdown -170, FG/Safety +150)
First turnover: (None +800, Fumble +130, INT -125)
Highest scoring half: 1st -125, 2nd + OT +105)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over (+120, Under -140)
Team with longest TD scored: (Packers -145, Seahawks +125)
2-point conversion action: (Successful +290, No conversion -350)
4th down conversion action: (Successful -220, No conversion +180)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +240, No -280)
Will there be a kickoff return touchdown?: (Yes +2000, No -5000)
Will there be a punt return touchdown?: (Yes +1400, No -2500)
Will there be overtime?: (Yes +1000, No -1500)
Will the game end in a tie: (Yes +4000, No -15000)
Will there be a score in the final two minutes of 1st half?: (Yes -220, No +180)
Will the largest lead top 16.5 points Yes +100, No -120)
Will the first coach's challenge be successful Yes -120 No +100)
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -210, No +175)


NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

Westgate Vegas opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 12 currently has the Seahawks liisted as an 4.5-point road underdog at the Panthers. The Packers will be back in prime time to visit the Vikings in an immense NFC North Sunday night game and are listed as a 4-point underdog.