Tweet
Total Talk - Week 14
It was a good final week of the regular season to follow the steam on the college football totals I outlined in this piece last week. All that money on the Stanford/UCLA 'over' and Rutgers/Michigan State 'under' go there with ease on those respective contests, but while Miami did get some revenge on Pitt for their 2017 loss, that dominant “turnover chain” defense the Hurricanes had in 2017 showed up as well, keeping that contest well below the number.
Now that the regular season has concluded, there are fewer CFB games on the betting board, but that doesn't mean that we haven't seen significant movement already on some totals. This week tends to be one of the more heavily bet weekends of the year in college football because of the stakes in play, and there was no need to wait until later in the week to get this piece out.
So let's get right to the bigger movers of the week on these totals to see if you are looking to jump on board now, or wait and possibly go the other way closer to kick-off.
Biggest Movers to the 'Over'
Fresno State vs. Boise State: Open: 49 – Current: 53
The Mountain West championship will be decided on the “Smurf Turf” at Boise State again this year, as it's a rematch between Boise State and Fresno State from last year's game. This will be the third time in the six-year history of the Mountain West title game that these two programs have squared off, and Boise State has hosted and won both of the previous two matchups. Neither of those title games finished with more than 42 total points scored, and considering the regular season matchup between these two finished with 41 total points, this big move upwards is a little surprising.
Both of these programs finished with winning records to the 'under' this year – Fresno was 4-8 O/U and Boise was 5-7 O/U – and yet this is a move that on the surface looks to be one that should be followed before it's faded. For the number to quickly jump through a key number of 51 and still hit another key number of 53 is something that can't be taken lightly, and with Boise's offense scoring 45 and 33 points in their two games since beating Fresno, the Broncos attack is riding a strong wave of momentum right now as well. Weather forecasts are calling for ideal early December weather in Boise so their shouldn't be much concern there either.
The fact that betting percentage numbers offered at VegasInsider.com show it's only about a 55/45 split in favor of the 'over' suggests it's a move to be followed as well, although the only concerning thing in that regard is the notion that the value in taking the 'over' is all but gone now and we will likely see some buyback to the low-side closer to kick-off. After all, each of these two teams finished the regular season on 0-4 O/U runs, and each of the past four meetings between the two have stayed 'under' as well with no more than 45 points scored in any of those games.
That makes this total one I'm more interested in monitoring as the week goes on, simply because if there is some buyback on the 'under' it will be interesting to see what happens if the total drops back to that key number of 51. Clearly there was plenty of love (and respect) in the markets for going 'over' that key number here as maybe we do see a game where it's something like 28-24 for either side. We did see how well following the steam did a week ago though, no matter the number, so if forced to make a play on this total now, it would have to be siding with the move on the high side of things.
Biggest Movers to the 'Under'
Memphis vs. UCF: Open: 70 – Current: 65
This move is much easier to explain as the big drop in the number is basically injury related. UCF lost QB McKenzie Milton to a horrific leg injury a week ago, and backup QB Darriel Mack Jr was able to do enough to keep the lead, get the W, and keep the undefeated UCF season intact. However, it's not like the freshman Mack was all that impressive in the effort (5-for-14 passing for just 81 yards) as he did enter the game with a double-digit lead and let the running game bring things home. If UCF wants to remain unbeaten this year, that can't be the case against a high-powered Memphis team that's looking for some revenge after a one-point defeat to UCF earlier this year.
UCF will likely lean heavily on the ground game once again this week, as they don't particularly want to get into a shootout without Milton at the helm. That should lead to the clock continuously running quite a bit here as UCF's defense does what it can to contain Memphis, and it's not like the Knights haven't been a great 'under' team recently either. UCF enters this championship game on a 1-7 O/U run overall and that's something casual fans/bettors might not figure when they think about this UCF program.
From a betting perspective now, the value in this number is long gone, and while the likelihood of some buyback isn't going to be necessarily as strong here as it could be in Fresno/Boise, I believe this total is nothing but a pass now. It's not like Memphis' defense hasn't been gashed on the ground this year, and UCF still has some explosive RB's in that stable of theirs that could break one off at any moment. The Tigers own attack can put up points in a hurry, and knowing that they don't have to deal with Milton in this game, building a multi-score lead early in the 2nd half and then going into prevent mode and giving up a few scores could be very decisive in the ultimate result on this total. Last year's meeting in the championship game was an epic OT shootout that finished with 117 points scored, so if you hadn't already gotten a piece of this 'under' at a better number, it's probably best to pass on this total now.
Best Total Bet for Championship Saturday
Georgia vs. Alabama Under 63.5
The SEC championship game is one that the entire CFB world has been waiting on for weeks now as it's a rematch from last year's National Championship, and one you know this Georgia team has been excited about for weeks. The Bulldogs have wanted to get another crack at 'Bama all year long, and with a win putting Georgia into the CFB Playoff again and a loss eliminating them, the stakes couldn't be much higher for the Bulldogs this week.
And while both programs have made improvements on offense this year compared to when they met last season, I do believe the number is still slightly too high all things considered. For one, an Alabama loss doesn't “guarantee” them a spot in the CFB playoff if it were to come in ugly fashion, and with that as the backdrop to Nick Saban's game planning, you can bet that he'll have his defense overly prepared for what he expects to see from Georgia.
At the same time, Kirby Smart will have his Bulldogs defense very prepared for what he expects to see from Alabama, as they did get caught off guard in the title game when Saban made the QB switch to Tua in the 2nd half. Like Alabama, Georgia has basically had a month to prepare and install bits of the game plan into their unit and that's never a bad thing for 'unders.'
Finally, both teams are coming off consecutive games of 'overs' cashing to end the year, with Alabama putting up 50+ in both wins, while Georgia averaged 50+ in their two victories. Those results have to be taken into consideration when putting out a total for this week, and because of them, I do believe the total is slightly inflated. Remember, the total for the National Title game a year ago closed at 45.5 and was a dead ringer for the 'under' before Alabama forced OT, and it still could have cashed had Georgia been the only team to score in that extra frame. Even with the improved offenses, this number is nearly three TD's higher than last year's meeting, and with two elite SEC teams going at it – a conference that's known for defense – I have a hard time seeing where 64+ points will come from.
Alabama had only two SEC games this year where the total closed in the 60's or higher and both of those games did find a way to cash 'under' tickets. This SEC title game should be no different as somewhere in the mid-50's is likely where this score tops out.
It was a good final week of the regular season to follow the steam on the college football totals I outlined in this piece last week. All that money on the Stanford/UCLA 'over' and Rutgers/Michigan State 'under' go there with ease on those respective contests, but while Miami did get some revenge on Pitt for their 2017 loss, that dominant “turnover chain” defense the Hurricanes had in 2017 showed up as well, keeping that contest well below the number.
Now that the regular season has concluded, there are fewer CFB games on the betting board, but that doesn't mean that we haven't seen significant movement already on some totals. This week tends to be one of the more heavily bet weekends of the year in college football because of the stakes in play, and there was no need to wait until later in the week to get this piece out.
So let's get right to the bigger movers of the week on these totals to see if you are looking to jump on board now, or wait and possibly go the other way closer to kick-off.
Biggest Movers to the 'Over'
Fresno State vs. Boise State: Open: 49 – Current: 53
The Mountain West championship will be decided on the “Smurf Turf” at Boise State again this year, as it's a rematch between Boise State and Fresno State from last year's game. This will be the third time in the six-year history of the Mountain West title game that these two programs have squared off, and Boise State has hosted and won both of the previous two matchups. Neither of those title games finished with more than 42 total points scored, and considering the regular season matchup between these two finished with 41 total points, this big move upwards is a little surprising.
Both of these programs finished with winning records to the 'under' this year – Fresno was 4-8 O/U and Boise was 5-7 O/U – and yet this is a move that on the surface looks to be one that should be followed before it's faded. For the number to quickly jump through a key number of 51 and still hit another key number of 53 is something that can't be taken lightly, and with Boise's offense scoring 45 and 33 points in their two games since beating Fresno, the Broncos attack is riding a strong wave of momentum right now as well. Weather forecasts are calling for ideal early December weather in Boise so their shouldn't be much concern there either.
The fact that betting percentage numbers offered at VegasInsider.com show it's only about a 55/45 split in favor of the 'over' suggests it's a move to be followed as well, although the only concerning thing in that regard is the notion that the value in taking the 'over' is all but gone now and we will likely see some buyback to the low-side closer to kick-off. After all, each of these two teams finished the regular season on 0-4 O/U runs, and each of the past four meetings between the two have stayed 'under' as well with no more than 45 points scored in any of those games.
That makes this total one I'm more interested in monitoring as the week goes on, simply because if there is some buyback on the 'under' it will be interesting to see what happens if the total drops back to that key number of 51. Clearly there was plenty of love (and respect) in the markets for going 'over' that key number here as maybe we do see a game where it's something like 28-24 for either side. We did see how well following the steam did a week ago though, no matter the number, so if forced to make a play on this total now, it would have to be siding with the move on the high side of things.
Biggest Movers to the 'Under'
Memphis vs. UCF: Open: 70 – Current: 65
This move is much easier to explain as the big drop in the number is basically injury related. UCF lost QB McKenzie Milton to a horrific leg injury a week ago, and backup QB Darriel Mack Jr was able to do enough to keep the lead, get the W, and keep the undefeated UCF season intact. However, it's not like the freshman Mack was all that impressive in the effort (5-for-14 passing for just 81 yards) as he did enter the game with a double-digit lead and let the running game bring things home. If UCF wants to remain unbeaten this year, that can't be the case against a high-powered Memphis team that's looking for some revenge after a one-point defeat to UCF earlier this year.
UCF will likely lean heavily on the ground game once again this week, as they don't particularly want to get into a shootout without Milton at the helm. That should lead to the clock continuously running quite a bit here as UCF's defense does what it can to contain Memphis, and it's not like the Knights haven't been a great 'under' team recently either. UCF enters this championship game on a 1-7 O/U run overall and that's something casual fans/bettors might not figure when they think about this UCF program.
From a betting perspective now, the value in this number is long gone, and while the likelihood of some buyback isn't going to be necessarily as strong here as it could be in Fresno/Boise, I believe this total is nothing but a pass now. It's not like Memphis' defense hasn't been gashed on the ground this year, and UCF still has some explosive RB's in that stable of theirs that could break one off at any moment. The Tigers own attack can put up points in a hurry, and knowing that they don't have to deal with Milton in this game, building a multi-score lead early in the 2nd half and then going into prevent mode and giving up a few scores could be very decisive in the ultimate result on this total. Last year's meeting in the championship game was an epic OT shootout that finished with 117 points scored, so if you hadn't already gotten a piece of this 'under' at a better number, it's probably best to pass on this total now.
Best Total Bet for Championship Saturday
Georgia vs. Alabama Under 63.5
The SEC championship game is one that the entire CFB world has been waiting on for weeks now as it's a rematch from last year's National Championship, and one you know this Georgia team has been excited about for weeks. The Bulldogs have wanted to get another crack at 'Bama all year long, and with a win putting Georgia into the CFB Playoff again and a loss eliminating them, the stakes couldn't be much higher for the Bulldogs this week.
And while both programs have made improvements on offense this year compared to when they met last season, I do believe the number is still slightly too high all things considered. For one, an Alabama loss doesn't “guarantee” them a spot in the CFB playoff if it were to come in ugly fashion, and with that as the backdrop to Nick Saban's game planning, you can bet that he'll have his defense overly prepared for what he expects to see from Georgia.
At the same time, Kirby Smart will have his Bulldogs defense very prepared for what he expects to see from Alabama, as they did get caught off guard in the title game when Saban made the QB switch to Tua in the 2nd half. Like Alabama, Georgia has basically had a month to prepare and install bits of the game plan into their unit and that's never a bad thing for 'unders.'
Finally, both teams are coming off consecutive games of 'overs' cashing to end the year, with Alabama putting up 50+ in both wins, while Georgia averaged 50+ in their two victories. Those results have to be taken into consideration when putting out a total for this week, and because of them, I do believe the total is slightly inflated. Remember, the total for the National Title game a year ago closed at 45.5 and was a dead ringer for the 'under' before Alabama forced OT, and it still could have cashed had Georgia been the only team to score in that extra frame. Even with the improved offenses, this number is nearly three TD's higher than last year's meeting, and with two elite SEC teams going at it – a conference that's known for defense – I have a hard time seeing where 64+ points will come from.
Alabama had only two SEC games this year where the total closed in the 60's or higher and both of those games did find a way to cash 'under' tickets. This SEC title game should be no different as somewhere in the mid-50's is likely where this score tops out.
Comment