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Tech Trends - Week 14
Bruce Marshall

Friday, Nov. 30

NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. BUFFALO (MAC title game at Ford Field, Detroit, MI, Friday, November 30)...NIU had covered four in a row away from DeKalb prior to loss at WMU. Bulls 9-3 vs. line this season, 18-5-2 vs. spread since late 2016.
Slight to Buffalo, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON vs. UTAH (Pac-12 title game at Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA, Friday, November 30)...Huskies have won SU last three years in series but covered only one of those (2018). U-Dub 3-9 vs. line in 2018, 4-12 last 16 on board, just 2-7 vs. spread last nine away. Utes 13-5 vs. points as dog since 2014.
Utah, based on team trends.


Saturday, Dec. 1

UAB at MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Conference USA title game, Saturday, December 1)...After covering seven straight this season, UAB HAS dropped last three vs. number. Blazers just 3-5 vs. spread last 8 away from Legion Field. UAB 8-4 as dog since last season. MTSU, however, has covered last five this season.
Slight to MTSU, based on recent trends.


MEMPHIS at UCF (American title game, Saturday, December 1)...UCF 3-0 SU in series since last season though just 1-1-1 vs. number. Tigers just 2-3 vs. line away this season but just 4-5-1 as dog for Mike Norvell since 2016. UCF covered 5 of last 6 at home this season.
UCF, based on team trends.


TEXAS vs. OKLAHOMA (Big 12 title game at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX, Saturday, December 1)...Horns have covered last six in series, all as dog, winning outright on Oct. 6 at Cotton Bowl. Tom Herman 2-0 as dog this season, 7-1 in role with Texas, 12-1 since 2015 with Houston & Longhorns as dog. Sooners only 4-8-1 vs. line since late 2017.
Texas, based on team and series trends.


UL-LAFAYETTE at APPALACHIAN STATE (Sun Belt title game, Saturday, December 1)...Ragin’ Cajuns covered Oct. 20 at App and ended season on 7-2 spread uptick. ULL also covered 4 of last 5 as dog this season. App, however, 7-2-2 vs. spread in 2018.
Slight to UL-Lafayette, based on recent trends.


GEORGIA vs. ALABAMA (SEC title game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA, Saturday, December 1)...Georgia 12-3 vs. spread last 15 away from Athens, Kirby Smart also 5-2 as dog since 2016. Bulldogs have covered last five bowl/playoff games. Tide 4-6 vs. spread in bowl/playoff/SEC title games since 2013.
Georgia, based on team trends.


FRESNO STATE at BOISE STATE (Mountain West title game, Saturday, December 1)...Fresno no covers last three this season but Bulldogs were 18-3-2 vs. spread for Jeff Tedford prior and 23-5-2 previous 30 on board since mid 2016. Fresno 6-0 as dog for Tedford (all of that in 2017). Bulldogs blew lead in loss and non-cover at Boise on Nov. 9. Boise has covered last three this season and was 3-2 as home chalk this season, but just 7-17 laying points on blue carpet since 2015. Fresno covered in MW title games at Boise in 2014 and 2017.
Fresno State, based on team trends.


PITTSBURGH vs. CLEMSON (ACC title game at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC, Saturday, December 1)...Pitt had covered six straight in 2018 prior to Miami loss. Panthers 9-6 as dog since last season and 5-3 getting DD since 2016 under Pat Narduzzi. But Pitt only 3-3 vs. spread away this season. Clemson only 6-6 vs. line this season though did have mid-to-late-season 5-game cover streak. Though not technically a bowl, note Panthers 1-5 vs. spread in last six of those.
Slight to Clemson, based on team trends.


NORTHWESTERN vs. OHIO STATE (Big Ten title game at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN, Saturday, December 1)...Underdog team was a remarkable 11-0-1 vs. spread in NU games this season! Wildcats 5-0-1 as dog themselves. Buckeyes 1-6 their last seven as chalk this season and 1-4 vs. spread last five away from home.
Northwestern, based on team trends.


AKRON at SOUTH CAROLINA (Saturday, December 1)...Zips just 2-6 vs. spread their last eight on board this season though did cover both of their non-MAC games on road. Bowden 6-11-1 last 18 on board since mid 2017. Gamecocks have covered their last four vs. non-SEC foes and 8-4 last 12 on board since late 2017.
Slight to South Carolina, based on team trends.


EAST CAROLINA at NC STATE (Saturday, December 1)...ECU 4-7 vs. line this season, 10-24-1 vs. spread since Scottie Montgomery took over in 2016. Also 1-6 vs. line last seven vs. non-AAC foes.
NC State, based on ECU negatives.


STANFORD at CALIFORNIA (Saturday, December 1)...Big Game! Cal on 5-game cover streak TY after dropping previous 5 vs. line, and Wilcox 10-4 as dog since LY. Tree however is 5-1-1 vs. spread last seven away from Farm. Stanford had covered five straight in series until LY.
Slight to California, based on team trends.


MARSHALL at VIRGINIA TECH...Herd 2-0 as dog this season, 8-0 in role since 2017! Marshall 8-3-1 vs. line last 12 away from home and 7-2 vs. points last nine vs. non-CUSA. Hokies had dropped 6 in a row vs. line before Virginia upset and no covers last four as chalk.
Marshall, based on team trends.

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Sharps hit Georgia odds early for college football showdown vs. Alabama
Patrick Everson

College football has reached its conference championship week, from which will come the four teams competing in this season’s College Football Playoff. We check in on the opening lines and early action for the Power Five conference title games, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, supervisor at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-13.5)

Defending national champion Alabama is one of two remaining CFP contenders with an unblemished record. The Crimson Tide (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) had little trouble with rival Auburn in the Iron Bowl, posting a 52-21 victory as 25.5-point home favorites to cap the regular season.

Georgia stubbed its toe in a mid-October loss at Louisiana State, but responded with five straight double-digit victories (4-1 ATS). The Bulldogs (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) dispatched Georgia Tech 45-21 as 17-point home faves last weekend.

“We took some sharp money on Georgia right away. We’ve moved it down to -13 for now,” Wilkinson said of early activity for Saturday’s game in Atlanta. “I think the public is going to like Alabama at less than a two-touchdown favorite, but the sharp money is going to be on Georgia. We’re anticipating this line to go to 12.5 or stay at 13 throughout the week. Most of the money will still be on ‘Bama though.”

No. 17 Utah Utes vs. No. 16 Washington Huskies (-5.5)

Washington crashed Washington State’s party to steal first place in the Pac-12 North and earn a trip to Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., for Friday night’s conference title game. Last weekend, the Huskies (9-3 SU, 3-9 ATS) went off as 2.5-point road underdogs and emerged with a 28-15 outright victory over the archrival Cougars.

Utah won seven of its last eight games (6-2 ATS) en route to winning the Pac-12 South Division. The Utes (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) capped the run with a nonconference victory over Brigham Young, rallying from a 27-7 deficit to win 35-27 laying 10.5 points at home.

“We opened this line at -5.5, and I still think that’s too low,” Wilkinson said. “However, most of the betting market is even lower at 5. We haven’t taken any action yet, but I’m anticipating most of the money to come in on Washington.”

No. 14 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (-7)

The Red River Rivalry gets a repeat performance, with Oklahoma aiming to avenge its only loss of the season, a 48-45 setback laying 7 points at the Cotton Bowl on Oct. 6. The Sooners (11-1 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) followed with six consecutive victories, but cashed just once (1-4-1 ATS), barely escaping West Virginia last week with a 59-56 win as 3-point road favorites.

Texas won its last three games to secure a spot in this Big 12 final, to be played Saturday at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. Last week, the Longhorns (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) fended off Kansas 24-17 laying 15.5 points on the road.

“We already took a decent five-figure bet on Oklahoma at -7,” Wilkinson said. “We’re at -7.5 now, and I think that line is going to go up. Oklahoma just scores too many points for Texas to keep up.”

No. 24 Pittsburgh Panthers at No. 2 Clemson Tigers (-25)

Clemson is a monster favorite in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game as it aims for another trip to the CFP. The Tigers (12-0 SU, 6-6 ATS) capped their perfect regular season with a 56-35 nonconference victory over South Carolina as 25.5-point home faves.

Pittsburgh put together a 5-1 stretch (6-0 ATS) beginning in early October, helping it secure a spot in Saturday’s conference final in Charlotte, N.C. However, the Panthers (7-5 SU and ATS) got drilled at Miami in the regular-season finale, 24-3 as 6-point road underdogs.

“Although we haven’t gotten any major bets on it yet, we’ve already moved up with the market to -26,” Wilkinson said. “This game is being played in Clemson’s backyard, and Pittsburgh looked pretty bad last week against Miami. I think that line will either stay at 26 or possibly go a little higher. I also think Clemson is going to cover it.”

No. 19 Northwestern Wildcats vs. No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes (-13.5)

Ohio State still has a glimmer of CFP hope, thanks to a blowout victory of its archrival last weekend. The Buckeyes (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) went off as 3.5-point home pups to Michigan, but rumbled to a 62-39 victory.

Northwestern found its way to Indianapolis for Saturday’s game by going 7-1 SU in its last eight outings. The Wildcats (8-4 SU, 6-4-2 ATS) finished with a 24-16 victory over Illinois giving 16 points at home.

“We’ve gotten some big bets on both sides of this game already,” Wilkinson said. “Currently, we have Ohio State favored by 14, and I think that’s a good line. Ohio State is going to win, but I don’t think it will be as dominant a performance as the Buckeyes had against Michigan last week.”

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Alabama vs. Georgia
November 27, 2018
By Bookmaker

by Kyle Markus

SEC Championship - Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Whether the Alabama Crimson Tide wins or loses the SEC Championship game, it should qualify for the College Football Playoff. The Georgia Bulldogs are in a much different scenario, as a win could get them in while a loss would likely keep them out. Georgia has a bunch of motivation to capture this game but is facing off against an absolute buzzsaw in Alabama.

The Crimson Tide is the clear-cut favorite to win the national title and will be the sizable favorite in this matchup. Georgia has a very talented team and can play with almost anyone in the nation, but Alabama is in a league of its own.

The Crimson Tide is zeroing in on yet another conference championship and the Bulldogs will do anything they can to pull off the upset in NCAA football betting.

This NCAA football game between the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide will be held at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia at 4 p.m ET on Friday, December 1st, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on CBS.

We'll have NCAA football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NFL season.

Odds Analysis

Alabama is a perfect a 12-0 on the season and is listed as the 13-point favorite in this matchup. The Crimson Tide is the heavy -500 favorite on the moneyline to win this game, while Georgia is listed at the +384 underdog to pull out the win.

The scoring total is listed at 63 points. The defenses are both good but so are the offenses and the oddsmakers believe there will be points in this one.

Previous Matchup

These two teams met in last year’s national championship game. The Bulldogs led by 13 points at halftime and seemed on its way to the title. However, Alabama coach Nick Saban went to freshman quarterback Tua Tagovailoa at halftime and he led a comeback that culminated in a 26-23 overtime victory for the Crimson Tide.

Alabama has been a fixture competing for national titles, and while Georgia is a very good team, it isn’t quite at that level. The Bulldogs missed a golden chance to win the championship and now they are hoping Tagovailoa and Alabama don’t burn their shot once again this year.

Player To Watch

Jake Fromm -- The Alabama offense is explosive so Georgia needs to score to have a shot, and it will be on the shoulders of its standout quarterback. Fromm has thrown for 2,236 yards with 24 touchdowns and five interceptions on the year.

Fromm struggled in the team’s lone loss this year against LSU, throwing a pair of picks and completing less than 50 percent of his passes. Fromm has thrown 11 interceptions against only one pick since then and is hoping to remain hot entering this one.

He threw for 175 yards and four touchdowns in an easy win over Georgia Tech last time out. Alabama has a great defensive line and Georgia will need to give Fromm time to throw in this one.

Free NCAA Football ATS Picks

It’s rare for a team to be a double-digit favorite at a neutral site when facing a fellow top-five team, but Alabama is that good. The Crimson Tide is gearing up for a national championship run and should be able to systematically pull away in this one.

The spread may look large but there should be no qualms behind going with Alabama to both win this game and cover the spread. The “under” is the pick as Georgia is not going to score enough in NCAA football odds.

NCAAFB ATS Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide 37, Georgia Bulldogs 20

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Clemson vs. Pittsburgh
November 27, 2018
By Bookmaker

by Kyle Markus

ACC Championship - Clemson Tigers vs. Pitt Panthers Tide

The Clemson Tigers have been common participants in the College Football Playoff the past few years, and they can punch their ticket once again by claiming the ACC Championship Game. Clemson will face off against the Pitt Panthers in a neutral site matchup.

The Tigers are undefeated on the year and clearly the superior team as Pitt is barely ranked in the top-25 and Clemson comes in at No. 2. The Panthers would love to pull the upset but it would be a lot to ask. Look for the Tigers to wrap up their spot in the national championship semifinals with a victory in NCAA football gambling.

This NCAA football game between the Clemson Tigers and Pitt Panthers will be held at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina at 8 p.m ET on Friday, December 1st, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on ABC.

We'll have NCAA football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NFL season.

Odds Analysis

The Clemson Tigers are 12-0 on the year. They are an outrageous 27-point favorite in this matchup as the oddsmakers don’t believe this will even be a contest. Clemson is the -3800 favorite on the moneyline while Pitt is the +1423 underdog. This would truly be one of the biggest upsets in conference championship game history if the Panthers pull out a win.

The scoring total is listed at 53 points as the oddsmakers have a hard time believing Pitt will get much of anything going offensively in NCAA football odds.

Key Stat

27.8. That’s the number of points scored and points allowed for Pitt on the season. The even point-differential is not a good sign for the team’s shot at success in this one as it tells more about the team than its 6-2 conference record.

Pittsburgh’s defense has had its issues and Clemson is expected to take advantage. The Tigers, by comparison, are averaging 45.7 points per game while allowing only 14.0. No team has come within 20 points of Clemson in its past seven contests and Pitt will be hard-pressed to do so in this one.

Player To Watch

Trevor Lawrence -- The Clemson quarterback has been fantastic this season and will aim to keep it up against Pitt in this one. Lawrence has thrown for 2,488 yards with 22 touchdowns and four interceptions. Lawrence has not thrown more than one interception in any game this year and the Panthers will likely need to force multiple turnovers in order to have a shot at the upset.

Lawrence is coming off an impressive performance. He was 27-of-36 for 393 yards with a touchdown in a 56-35 victory over South Carolina. Even though Lawrence is only a freshman he has not been nervous under the bright lights and should dominate once again in this one.

Free NCAA Football ATS Picks

Clemson has all but assured itself of a College Football Playoff bid and will secure it with an easy win over Pittsburgh. While the Tigers won’t have a lot of trouble, this one is unlikely to finish with a margin greater than 27 points. Once Clemson has the game in hand, it will be interested in getting the key players out of the game to avoid injury in preparation for the national semifinals.

Pittsburgh is the choice to cover this spread, and the “under” is the call because Clemson is going to take its foot off the gas in the second half in NCAA football gambling.

NCAAFB ATS Pick: Clemson Tigers 34, Pittsburgh Panthers 13

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Northwestern vs. Ohio State
November 27, 2018
By BetDSI

By Tom Wilkinson

College Football Betting Preview
Big Ten Title Game – Northwestern vs. Ohio State

The Ohio State Buckeyes are two-touchdown favorites in the Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday against the Northwestern Wildcats. This game that can be seen on FOX will see the winner head to the Rose Bowl unless the Buckeyes can crack the top four in the CFP Rankings and make the College Football Playoff. Let’s look at this matchup on Saturday night and college football picks.

Date and Time: Saturday, December 1, 2018, 8:00 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
College Football Odds at BetDSI: Ohio State -14, O/U 59
Northwestern vs. Ohio State TV Coverage: FOX

It is very obvious that the oddsmakers and public are remembering what Ohio State did last week against Michigan because the Buckeyes shouldn’t be laying two touchdowns in this neutral site game in Indianapolis. The Buckeyes did score a ton of points last week to beat rival Michigan, but the Ohio State defense has not played well all season. And keep in mind that Ohio State has failed to cover the spread in seven of their 12 games this season.

Northwestern is 8-4 SU this season and 6-4 ATS. They are averaging 23.7 points per game and giving up 21.7 per contest. The Wildcats have gone under the total in seven of their 12 games this season.

Ohio State is 11-1 SU and 5-7 ATS. Ohio State is averaging 43.3 points per game, but giving up 25.8 points per contest. They have gone over then total six times and under six times.

Player to Watch

The Buckeyes have the player to watch in this one, as quarterback Dwayne Haskins has had a great season. He threw for 396 yards and six touchdowns last week in the win over Michigan. He has thrown 41 TD passes this season, the most ever by a quarterback in the Big Ten. The Wildcats will have to find a way to contain Haskins if they are to stay in this contest. Northwestern is just 80th in the country in passing defense, so they could have trouble against Haskins on Saturday night.

Key Stats

Ohio State has dominated this series, winning 30 of the last 31 meetings. This year’s Northwestern team has played well against good teams, going 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Wildcats are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games. The Buckeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

The favorite in this series is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Looking at the total, the Under is 5-1 in the Wildcats last 6 games overall. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series.

Northwestern vs. Ohio State Picks

This is a very difficult game to pick a side because the Buckeyes are capable of blowing out Northwestern if they play anywhere close to how they played last week against Michigan. The problem with taking the Buckeyes is that they are wildly inconsistent and they have a poor defense. The problem with backing Northwestern is that Ohio State has more talent. I think the better choice in this game is to play the total.

I have no idea how Ohio State has gone under six times this season, as they score a ton of points and play no defense. It should be noted that two of those games were against Rutgers and Tulane who scored a combined nine points. Northwestern should be able to move the ball effectively throughout this game against an Ohio State defense that has given up 90 points the last two weeks.

On the other side, there is no question that the Buckeyes are going to score. They are averaging over 43 points per game, 7th best in the country. I can’t see the Buckeyes getting slowed down that often by the Northwestern defense. I am a little surprised this total is not in the 60’s, as I think both offenses will put up at least 30 points. I will go over the total at BetDSI for the Big Ten title game.

Northwestern vs. Ohio State Pick: Over 59 at BetDSI
Northwestern vs. Ohio State Score Prediction: Ohio State 38, Northwestern 30

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AP All-America Watch: Star matchups for championship weekend
November 27, 2018
By The Associated Press

The Associated Press has been honoring college football's best with an All-America team since 1925. The full three-team AP All-America selections will be unveiled in December. The final All-America watch of the season features All-America matchups from each of this weekend's Power Five conference championship games.

ACC

No. 2 Clemson vs. Pittsburgh

The Tigers have several All-America contenders, including defensive linemen Christian Wilkins and Clelin Ferrell, linebacker Tre Lamar, offensive tackle Mitch Hyatt and running back Travis Etienne. Yes, Clemson is loaded. The key matchup for Pitt to compete with the Tigers will come along the Panthers' offensive line. Offensive tackle Stefano Millin, a grad transfer from Kent State, has been the best player on a line that has paved the way for one of the best running games in the country. Qadree Ollison has been the beneficiary, rushing for 1,134 yards, 10 touchdowns and 6.44 yards per carry.

Big Ten

No. 6 Ohio State vs. Northwestern

Buckeyes quarterback Dwayne Haskins is ripping up Big Ten passing records, with 42 touchdown passes and 4,081 yards setting new single-season marks. He spreads the ball around enough so that no one receiver has numbers that place him among the nation's leaders, but Parris Campbell has 903 yards and 11 touchdowns to lead the team. The Wildcats secondary has been badly banged up recently. When healthy, cornerback Montre Hartage is one of the best in the Big Ten at his position. He did not play against Illinois, but the Wildcats could really use him to slow down Haskins.

Big 12

No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Texas

No conference produces All-America candidates at wide receiver like the Big 12, with a combination of quality quarterbacks, up-tempo spread offenses and some less-than-inspiring defenses. The Sooners and Longhorns are loaded with playmakers on the outside, but the ones with the best case to be All-Americans are Oklahoma's Marquise Brown and Texas' Lil'Jordan Humphrey. Brown, nicknamed Hollywood for his hometown in Florida, is only 5-foot-10 and 168 pounds, but he is an elusive game-breaker. The junior averages 105 yards per game, 18.06 per catch and has scored 10 touchdowns. Humphrey is a different model of receiver, but just as difficult to defend at 6-4, 225 pounds. He leads the Longhorns with 72 catches for 1,058 yards and eight scores.

Pac-12

No. 10 Washington vs. No. 17 Utah

Two of the leading contenders for Pac-12 defensive player of the year and spots on the All-America team at linebacker will be in the middle of a game with a Rose Bowl berth at stake. Utah's Chase Hansen is a converted safety who has been all over the field this season. The 230-pound senior leads the conference and is fourth in the nation in tackles for loss with 22, including five sacks, and has made two interceptions, returning one for a touchdown. Washington's Ben Burr-Kirven is undersized at 6-foot and 220 pounds, but he is a tackling machine, tied for the national lead at 12.92 per game.

SEC

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Georgia

There will be a lot of individual talent on the field in Atlanta for a national championship game rematch that features a true All-America matchup to highlight. Tide receiver Jerry Jeudy was a midseason All-American and is Tua Tagovailoa's most frequent target. The sophomore is averaging 19.27 yards per catch and has scored 11 touchdowns in 56 receptions. Georgia counters with one of the best cornerbacks in the country in Deandre Baker, who has two interceptions and nine passes broken up even with teams largely avoiding him.

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Games to Watch - Week 14
November 27, 2018
By YouWager.eu

College Football Week 14: Games to Watch

This coming weekend will arguably be the biggest of the year, as it is when we will see the conference championship games take center stage. It goes without saying that these are the games that we are going to focus on here, but since we will be looking at the Power 5 conferences a little later in the week, we will spend out time here talking about some of the smaller conferences and the games being played there.

These are not games that will have any impact on the final playoff standings, but they are still match-ups worthy of your time and your wagering dollars join us review them with all odds, props and futures for each game sponsored by YouWager.eu.

UCF Knights (-3 -115) vs. Memphis Tigers (+3 -105)

The AAC Championship Game will provide UCF with the opportunity to continue an unbeaten streak that has now extended through two full seasons. The problem that the Knight have here is that they will be forced to try and win without their QB McKenzie Milton, who went out of last weeks game with a truly gruesome knee injury. It’s worth remembering that the Knight had to come from behind to beat Memphis 31-30 when they met earlier in the season, so they could well be in trouble in this one without their starting QB. The Knights are talented enough to rise up and put on a show here, but I think they come up short.

ULL Ragin’ Cajuns (+17½ -110) vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers (-17½ -110)

Of all the teams that play in the Sun Belt, it may well be the Mountaineers that we all know best. After all, they have, over the years, made a habit of scaring the life out of Power 5 teams, just as they did in Week 1 this season against Penn State. The Mountaineers needed a Troy loss last week to get into this one and will be going against a Cajuns team that won 3-straight to win their division. When these two met earlier in the season, it was the Mountaineers who came away with a 10-point win. I think we can expect more of the same here.

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UAB Blazers (+1 -110) vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-1 -110)

In a strange twist of scheduling, these two teams will be meeting for the second straight week, although this time, the winner will be walking away with the Conference USA title. Last week, it was the Blue Raiders scoring the comfortable 27-3 win in a game that they started as a 3-point underdog. That meant that the Blazers ended the season on a 2-game losing skid, although they did have the division locked up by then. The bookies have this as a close one, and while I don’t like the fact that UAB haven’t won for a couple of weeks, I think they get the win here.

Fresno State Bulldogs (+2½ -105) vs. Boise State Broncos (-2½ -115)

Boise State come into this one with the opportunity to repeat as champions of the Mountain West Conference against a Fresno State Bulldogs team that they have already beaten once this season. That win was part of a 7-game win streak that the Broncos went on to close out the season, although it was a tight defensive battle that ended in a 24-17 win for Boise. Let’s not count out Fresno State here, though, as the loss to the Broncos is the only defeat they have taken in their last 10 games. I am on Fresno State to get revenge and emerge as the conference champion.

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Wednesday’s 6-pack

If the NFL Draft was today (it isn’t), this would be the draft order:

1) 49ers 2-9

2) Cardinals 2-9

3) Raiders 2-9

4) Jets 3-8

5) Giants 3-8

6) Jaguars 3-8

Quote of the Day
“Listen, here’s the thing. If you can’t spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you ARE the sucker.”
Mike McDermott in Rounders

Wednesday’s quiz
Where was Mike Krzyzewski the basketball coach before moving to Duke?

Tuesday’s quiz
Tennessee Titans were the Houston Oilers before moving to Tennessee.

Monday’s quiz
Mike Shula was the football coach at Alabama before Nick Saban.

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Wednesday’s 2nd list of 13: Catching up on college hoop

If you spent all of November watching football and you missed the start of college basketball season, here is some of what you missed…….

13) Gonzaga 89, Duke 87— Finals of Maui Classic was a terrific game; Duke led 2-0, but that was it- they were down by 16 with 15:54 left, before tying game late. Zags made 10-19 on the arc, and they were playing without Tillie, who made 47.9% of his 3’s last year.

12) Virginia 53, Wisconsin 46— Predictably slow-paced game (58 possessions) in final of the Battle for Atlantis. Teams combined to go 6-28 on arc; Badgers only got to foul line three times and forced only five turnovers (-8). If you bet the under, this was a rocking chair game.

11) Kansas 87, Tennessee 81 OT— Vols start three seniors, two juniors, led by 8 early in 2nd half, but three Jayhawks played 40:00+ in this OT thriller. Kansas made 44% of its 3’s in its 5-0 start. Tennessee is #36 experience team, Kansas #283.

10) Virginia Tech 89, Purdue 83— Finals of Charleston tourney elevated Hokies into the top 25, which they may have floundered by losing at Penn State last night. Tech outscored Purdue 19-7 on foul line. Both teams made over 40% of their 3’s.

9) Duke 118, Kentucky 84— Result like this in a season opener distorted everyone’s view of the season; did Duke become a little overrated because they played so well in this game? If you’re John Calipari, how do you restore the young Wildcats’ confidence- they were down 91-54 at one point.

8) Louisville 82, Michigan State 78 OT— Chris Mack has a tough job, following Rick Pitino at a place where the fanbase isn’t exactly patient, but this win gets him off on the right foot.

7) San Diego 70, Colorado 64— Toreros are #6 experience team in America; they’re 5-1 with a 3-point loss at Washington. The middle of the WCC is better this season than it has been for a few years. San Diego starts four seniors, so this is a big year for them.

6) Buffalo 99, West Virginia 94 OT— Bob Huggins has young guards this year, which isn’t a good thing, but Buffalo is really good and should dominate the MAC. Bulls were down 69-56 with 8:05 left in regulation, but they forced 19 turnovers (+8) and got a great road win.

5) UConn 83, Syracuse 76— Orangemen don’t leave home before Christmas too much; they made only 23.3% of their 3’s in their first five games. This was Danny Hurley’s first statement win as the new UConn coach, coming in New York City, where it was like an old Big East conference tournament game.

4) Michigan 73, Villanova 46— Wildcats graduated four guys from LY’s national champs, and Michigan took its frustrations out for losing the national title game to Villanova eight months ago- this game was 49-17 at one point. Another early season brickfest, with teams combining to make only 8-32 on the arc.

3) Ohio State 64, Cincinnati 56— Good road win for Buckeyes squad that is experience team #281, while Cincy is #131 in experience. OSU led 55-39 with 5:23 left, before Bearcats made a late run but fell short. Buckeyes also have a road win at Creighton already.

2) Seton Hall 83, Miami 81— Finals of Wooden Legacy tournament in Fullerton; when they announce the Field of 68 in March, games like this will carry some weight, even though it was played almost four months before Selection Sunday. Pirates are #233 experience team; this is a great win for them.

1) Texas 92, North Carolina 89— Longhorns look to be improved this year, after going 30-37 the last two years. Texas lost to Michigan State the next night, but they’ve got this win and a neutral court win over Arkansas- the #256 experience Longhorns hope to be a factor in March.


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Wednesday’s List of 13: College basketball knowledge…….

13) Top four rated conferences so far this season:

Big X, Big 14, ACC and the Big East.

12) Teams with least experience in country, among teams in the betting rotation:

Kentucky, UCLA, Cal State-Northridge, Maryland, Chattanooga and Duke

One of those six teams has a lot more talent than the other five.

11) Minutes Continuity measures how much guys have played together more than their experience- teams cobbled together by transfers are rated low in this metric:

Highest: Washington, Kansas State, Brown, Cal State-Fullerton, George Mason

Lowest: Tex-Arlington, Chattanooga, Idaho, Wichita State, Oakland

10) Teams who used their bench the most so far this year:
Denver, Manhattan, Georgia, Princeton, NC State

Teams who used their bench the least:
San Diego, Furman, Georgia State, St John’s, Boston College

9) Challengers to Gonzaga’s dynasty in the WCC are changing a little. St Mary’s is only 3-3 to start the season, but San Francisco and LMU are both still unbeaten. Conference seems to be a little deeper this season; BYU is still pretty good and San Diego seems improved, too.

8) Mike Davis is the guy who replaced Bob Knight as the basketball coach at Indiana, which was an enormous job for a rookie coach. That was 18 years ago.

18 years and three jobs later (he has won at all his coaching stops) Davis is now the coach at Detroit Mercy in the Horizon League. His son Antone is a freshman for the Titans, and the kid can shoot a basketball- he’s made 24 of his last 38 3-point shots.

Horizon League has slipped of late (ranked #24 LY, were as high as #10 in 2011) and Davis got this job because the Titans are 16-47 the last five years. Detroit’s last winning season was in 2013, when their best player was the then-coach’s son (Ray McCallum Jr).

Detroit starts young Davis and four seniors, so they’ll be an interesting follow this winter. They also have five true freshmen, six JC transfers and two graduate transfers.

7) Rough start to the season for the Pac-12; Oregon is their highest-rated team, but the Ducks lost at home to Texas Southern Monday, as a 24-point favorite. Not looking good right now for the Pac-12 to get a lot of at-large spots in the NCAA’s.

6) Texas Southern uses November/December to fund its program, playing a ridiculous number of road games for guarantee fees. Here is who they’ve played so far:

Nov 6, won 72-69 at Baylor
Nov 10, lost 104-67 at Gonzaga
Nov 12, lost 85-73 at Iowa State
Nov 14, lost 103-64 at San Diego State
Nov 18, lost 85-63 at Evansville
Nov 26, won 89-84 at Oregon

Their first Division I home game is January 19th. January freakin’ 19th.

5) Teams who have taken the highest % of 3-point shots:
Drake, Eastern Washington, Villanova, Siena, North Dakota State

4) Teams who have made the highest % of 3-point shots:
Indiana State, New Mexico, Detroit, South Dakota State, Creighton

3) Teams playing the fastest tempos so far this season:
FIU, Marshall, Eastern Kentucky, Citadel, Rider, Green Bay

Teams playing slowest tempo so far this season:
Virginia, Siena, Marist, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Houston

2) As of Monday night, there were still 15 kids in the country who’ve taken 2+ foul shots per game and made all of them, led by Oakland’s Jaevin Cumberland, at 26-26.

1) Oakland’s Braden Norris was leading the country in 3-point %age, making 12 of his 14 shots behind the arc. Ian Sistare of Dartmouth was next, at 11-14.

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Championship Preview
November 27, 2018
By Joe Williams

Matchup: Utah vs. Washington
Date: Friday, Nov. 30
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET - FOX
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, Calif.
Line, Total: Huskies -5, 44.5

The Pac-12 Championship Game kicks off on Friday night at Levi's Stadium, and we'll get some new blood in the battle. The Utah Utes (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) survived in the South Division, and they will be making the first-ever appearance in the league's title game. In fact, it might be the school's most important game since Kyle Whittingham took them to the Sugar Bowl against Alabama back in 2008.

The Washington Huskies (9-3 straight up, 3-9 against the spread) surprised the 10-win Washington State Cougars last weekend in the Apple Cup, pushing their rivals out of first place to claim the Pac-12 North for themselves. The season started with championship expectations of high proportions. However, a loss in a neutral-site battle against Auburn in the opener, and a couple of conference road setbacks against Oregon and California forced the Huskies to refocus.

The Utes lost in their conference opener back on Sept. 15 against the Huskies by a 21-7 score at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City as the 'under' (45.5) connected. The Utes followed that loss with a 28-24 setback in Pullman against Washington State, and an appearance in the conference championship game certainly didn't appear very possible with an 0-2 SU league start. However, Utah pulled together for an impressive 40-21 road victory at Stanford on Oct. 6, kicking off a four-game winning streak and cover streak to get right back into the thick of things. During the span the offense posted 40 or more points and things were humming again. The only loss since Oct. 6 was a 38-20 loss at Arizona State, but the team rebounded with three straight wins against Oregon and Colorado, as well as their rivalry game in the Holy War against Brigham Young in the season finale, 35-27. After a 1-3 ATS start, Utah ended up 6-2 ATS over their final eight outings.

The Huskies are making their second appearance in three seasons in Santa Clara, representing the North Division. They rolled past Colorado 41-10 in the 2016 installment to easily cover as 8 1/2-point favorites as the 'under' (55.5) cashed in that one. As mentioned, Washington won their conference opener Sept. 15 in SLC, and they fired out to a 3-0 SU/1-2 ATS start in the conference. They lost a heartbreaker in Oregon on Oct. 13, dropping a 30-27 decision in overtime, a game which could have been a win in the fourth quarter if not for a missed field goal. While that game might have knocked them out of contention for a national playoff spot, a stunning 12-10 loss at Cal on Oct. 27 looked like a potential death blow to their conference title hopes. The Huskies went 2-9 ATS in the first 11 outings, including an 0-6 ATS run from Oct. 6 through Nov. 17. However, they won in a snowy Apple Cup in Washington State to find their way back to the Bay Area and a potential Rose Bowl bid.

The Huskies ranked 52nd in the nation in total yards (421.2 YPG), while posting a very ordinary ranking of 64th in passing yards (236.2 YPG). They were a very ordinary 53rd in rushing yardage, too, posting 185.0 yards per contests with 28.0 PPG, ranking 77th in the country.

Senior QB Jake Browning took another step backward after his magical 2016-17 season. He completed 65.1 percent of his pass attempts (196-for-301) for just 2,692 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions while rushing for 114 yards and four scores this season. Senior RB Myles Gaskin missed some time due to injury at the end of October, but he still managed to roll up 1,076 yards (5.1 yards per carry) with 10 touchdowns, including 143 yards and a score in the win against Utah in mid-September. Sophomore RB Salvon Ahmed, the heir apparent to Gaskin in the backfield, posted 576 yards and seven touchdowns while actually outgaining Gaskin in yards per carry (6.3 to 5.1). Junior WR Aaron Fuller was good for a team-high 754 yards on 49 grabs with four touchdowns, while sophomore WR Ty Jones, a Utah native, led the team with six receiving scores.

This defense is championship caliber, and the secondary is littered with NFL prospects. Washington allowed 311.2 total yards per game which ranked 13th in the land, and their 16.5 points per game allowed was good for eighth in the country. Junior S Taylor Rapp is a game changer and heavy hitter in the secondary.

Utah averaged 414.0 total yards per game to rank 61st in the country, while the team scored 30.8 PPG to check in 54th in the nation. It was all about the run game, as they rolled up 201.0 yards per game to finish 40th in the land. Like Washington, it all starts and stops with defense for Utah. They were 15th in the country in total yards allowed (317.1 YPC), while yielding just 101.6 yards per game on the ground to finish sixth in the nation. They also allowed 19.2 PPG to end up 17th in the country.

Junior QB Tyler Huntley (collarbone) is listed as questionable for Friday's game. He completed 149-of-233 passes for 1,762 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions while also posting 304 rushing yards with four scores. He is a dual-threat signal caller for sure, checking in third on the team in rushing. If he cannot go it would be freshman QB Jason Shelley (54-of-96, 723 yards, three TD, one INT) taking the reins. No matter who is under center, they'll be handing off to junior RB Zack Moss, who led the team with 1,092 rushing yards (6.1 yards per carry) and 11 touchdowns. Junior RB Armand Shyne is the change-of-pace back, posting 442 yards and five scores on 95 carries. WR Brittain Covey is the Swiss Army Knife for Utah. He ran for a score, had a receiving touchdown and he was the primary kickoff and punt return specialist, too. He ranked 103rd in the country with 1,137 all-purpose yards.

Betting Trends to Watch

-- The Utes head into the game 5-0 ATS in their past five appearances on Friday, for whatever that's worth. They're also 7-1 ATS in their past eight appearances on a grass surface, while going 10-3-1 ATS in the past 14 against teams with a winning record. Utah has cashed in four of the past five outings on a neutral site field, while cashing in six of their past seven conference tilts. They have covered six of the past eight overall.

-- The Huskies have also excelled on Fridays, going 6-2 ATS in the past eight on the day. However, they're struggled with just one cover across the past eight conference battles, while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven overall and 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning sides. The Huskies have also failed to cover in each of their past five appearances on a grass surface.

-- The 'over' has connected in four straight for Utah against teams with a winning overall mark, although the under is 7-3 in the past 10 outings on grass.

-- For Washington, it's been all 'under' all the time. The under is 9-3 in their past 12 overall, while going 6-2 across the past eight neutral-site battles. In addition, the under has hit in eight of the past nine games against teams with a winning record.

-- In this series, the underdog has hit in five of the past six battles, while the 'over' is 4-1 across the past five battles, with the under hitting earlier this season.

Pac-12 Championship History

PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP (2011-18)
Team Matchup Line Score ATS Result
2018 Utah-Washington - - -
2017 Stanford-USC USC -3.5 (58.5) USC 31-28 Underdog-Over
2016 Washington-Colorado Washington -8.5 (55.5) Washington 41-10 Favorite-Under
2015 Stanford-USC Stanford -4.5 (59) Stanford 41-22 Favorite-Over
2014 Oregon-Arizona Oregon -14.5 (72.5) Oregon 51-13 Favorite-Under
2013 Stanford-Arizona State Arizona State -3 (53.5) Stanford 38-14 Underdog-Under
2012 Stanford-UCLA Stanford -8 (44) Stanford 27-24 Underdog-Over
2011 Oregon-UCLA Oregon -31 (66.5) Oregon 49-31 Underdog-Over

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Best Bet
November 28, 2018
By Sportsbetting.ag

MAC Championship Game
Northern Illinois vs. Buffalo

With no more full college football slates to hunt underdogs on, last week's Upset Alert piece was the final one of the year. It was a profitable season overall (22-18 ATS), highlighted by the great results I had with large underdogs, but all of that is simply in the past now as it's on to individual game breakdowns for Conference Championship weekend.

The festivities get started with the MAC Championship on Friday night and that's where my first play of the weekend comes from, as the Northern Illinois Huskies are back in this game for the seventh time in nine years (3-3 SU previous six) after a two-year hiatus from this contest. The Huskies are catching about a FG currently against a high-powered Buffalo Bulls attack, who as a program are 1-0 SU in their only other MAC Championship game appearance 10 years ago. So which side gets to lift that trophy on Friday night?

Sportsbetting.ag Odds: Buffalo (-3.5); Total set at 49

The first thing many like to look for in these conference title games is whether the matchup is a rematch or not, and if so, which team is looking to avenge that earlier loss. That thought need not apply to this game as these two division winners were lucky enough to avoid one another during the season, as this really is a clashing of styles between the two. Northern Illinois is the defense-first, team that loves to slug it out with anyone, while Buffalo prefers to run and shoot as they try to score 40+ each time out there.

This game will likely be decided by which team can dictate the style of play the longest, and if you look at the current betting percentages offered up at VegasInsider.com – 70% and 90%+ on Buffalo ATS and ML respectively – it appears as though the majority of bettors have already voiced their opinion on which program they believe that to be.

However, while I'm not one to be particularly fond of old adages like “defense wins championships,” I do believe it applies rather well to this game. I say that because Northern Illinois' defense is for real in allowing just 20.9 points per game this year, a number that drops to 19.75/game in MAC play. When you consider that Buffalo's two outright losses this year came in the only two games they failed to score 20 or more points – including a 52-17 blowout loss against an Ohio team that Northern Illinois beat 24-21 – things do line up rather nicely for Northern Illinois' chances on Friday.

Furthermore, the Huskies may have the worse overall record at 7-5 SU, having stumbled to the finish line with two straight outright losses as favorites, but they are the only team of the two that is battle tested in terms of squaring off against the bigger programs. Those two losses at the end of the year came after the Huskies had clinched the division so you've got to give them some leeway there, while their other three defeats came against Iowa, Utah and Florida State.

Utah's playing in their own conference title game later on Friday, and while those games didn't end particularly well for the Huskies, it's the willingness to test themselves against that caliber of program that stands out as a positive in a high stakes game like this. Add in a win over BYU in their non-conference play and the Huskies won't crumble under the pressure of the big stage on Friday.

Conversely, Buffalo's non-conference schedule finished with a much better 3-1 SU record, but their opponents were Delaware State (FCS program), Temple, Rutgers, and Army. Army was the team that handed the Bulls their lone non-conference loss, but outside of the Temple game, those are some very weak foes the Bulls squared off with. Those games are nice to pad your wins and build some early season confidence, but they don't do much for big games like this one. And when you consider that the two teams to beat Buffalo this year (Army, Ohio) completely gashed the Bulls on the ground for the full 60 minutes – Army rushed for 281 yards (4.4 per rush), and Ohio rushed for 437 (7.8 per rush) – a run-first team like Northern Illinois that plays phenomenal defense behind that should have little issue finding offensive success in a game like this.

So while I won't go as far as stating that the “wrong team is favored” in this game, I will be taking the points with the Huskies in this spot. That defense they've got, the team's overall experience vs “the big boys” this year, and Buffalo being so reliant on an offense that has crumbled in the two outings when things didn't got well for them early on makes taking the points the only way to look.

Don't forget about the fact that this line opened up at -4 as well and even with all of that Buffalo support on the side and total, we've actually seen the number move in Northern Illinois' favor. Put it all together and you should be able to score the first conference championship title of 2018 for defensive football as Northern Illinois could very easily win this game outright.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Best Bet: Northern Illinois +3.5

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Best Bet
November 28, 2018
By BetDSI

Big 12 Championship Game
Oklahoma vs. Texas

All good things must come to an end, and the 8-0 ATS run I had been on with these Saturday best bet plays came to a screeching halt last week. Georgia Tech and SMU were never really in their respective games for the bulk of the contests, and karma for all my “sweeping, and broom” comments came back to bite me in the ass.

Bad days like that happen to everyone in this industry though, and as tough as it may be to do, you've got to put them behind you and not let it influence the next game(s). With it being Championship Saturday this week and so many great games to watch (from both a betting and general perspective), there might not be a better week to rebound.

Hopefully this week's play gets us back in the win column after the rough way last Saturday treated the selections, so let's get right to it:

BetDSI.eu Odds: Oklahoma (-8); Total 78

Football fans get a second crack at consuming the Red River Rivalry this year as Oklahoma looks to avenge their only defeat of the campaign. The Sooners fell 48-45 to Texas back in early October, as it was a slow start and some early turnovers that put Oklahoma in a deep hole early that they weren't able to completely climb out of. Texas had multiple leads of 14 points in that game in the 2nd and 3rd quarters and it was those leads – including a 21-point margin entering the 4th – that proved to be too big.

Yet, Oklahoma and their tremendous offense actually managed to come all the way back from that 21-point deficit in the final frame, only to end up losing on a last second FG by what might be my favorite name/position combo in all of college football: Dicker the kicker. Handicappers who routinely spout off about Texas HC Tom Herman's 12-1 ATS record as an underdog got more content to spew out for this week's matchup, and when you combine that with the fact that Oklahoma's defense has been awful the past four weeks (allowed 40 or more in each of their last four games) and Texas did win the first matchup outright, you get the predictable statements of this being “too many points” to give Texas in this spot.

Look I get it, Oklahoma finished the year on a 0-3-1 ATS run in those four games where they allowed 40 or more, but they still went 4-0 SU in those games. Yes, the defense has been bad overall this year, but outside of the Kansas game, the Sooners also faced the three highest scoring offenses in the Big 12 in those final four games (West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State). Those three teams – along with Oklahoma – were the only four programs in the Big 12 to score more than 400 points this season. With West Virginia being the best of the bunch at 465 points scored, it puts into perspective just how good the Sooners offense and their 604 points scored this year really were. Compared to the 380 points Texas put up this year, as long as Oklahoma doesn't lose the turnover battle 3-0 again this time around, this game has blowout written all over it.

As far as Oklahoma's defense goes, it's hard to defend them too much given that they did allow the most total points of any Big 12 team (394), but there are other reasons behind that besides the “they don't have talent, they aren't good” narrative that's the go-to point for many here.

For one, being the defending Big 12 champs and the blue-blood program that they are, Oklahoma is always going to get the best shot from every one of their conference rivals. Teams know they've got to be able to score 40+ on the Sooners to simply even be in the game, and that means play-calling aggression is at an all time high in those contests.

Secondly, with the Sooners offense scoring seemingly at will, most of the time those are quick scores for the Sooners and that leads to a lack of rest for the defense. Mentally, for a defense that sees their own offense score like that week after week, there is an “ease-up” factor on certain drives or vs certain opponents (say a bad Kansas team) where they know that they'll win the game regardless of how good or bad they play. That mentality has led to the Sooners defense having some numbers that truly do look bad, but situational football has actually led this unit to step up and get stops when they need too. And you only have to look to the bulk of that 4th quarter in the first meeting with Texas – when Oklahoma came back from 21 down to tie it – to see that the Sooners are more than capable of doing so. Yes, they couldn't get the stop late to prevent the game-winning FG, but they gave their offense a chance for the first 14 minutes of that final frame to atone for the early mistakes and it nearly paid off.

The Sooners defense isn't going to be highly respected by anyone here and they will give up points, but you don't go 11-1 SU throughout the course of the year by not getting timely defensive stops. Should they be the ones to force Texas into some early turnovers this time around, QB Kyler Murray and this Sooners offense will make sure this game gets ugly in a hurry.

Finally, watching the betting markets themselves can tell you a lot about how this game is viewed by bettors and oddsmakers alike. With the predictable money coming in on Texas because “Tom Herman is 12-1 ATS as an underdog,” wouldn't you expect that the 80%+ action on Texas ML and 65%+ action on Texas + the points would shift this line the Longhorns way? After all, oddsmakers are well aware of those trends too, and yet, this line has actually moved up to -8 for Oklahoma.

Public underdogs are ones I've mentioned all year as teams you should generally stay away from, and when you get reverse line movement involved as well, that sentiment only grows. Don't forget that as the #5 team in the CFB Playoff rankings, Oklahoma knows they'll need to hang a convincing beating on Texas in this spot to get consideration for that #4 seed regardless of how the other conference title games play out. They saw how high Ohio State jumped in the rankings this week after they put in on Michigan last Saturday, so a similar 20+ point win for Oklahoma has to be the main goal for the Sooners this week.

Unless Oklahoma gets burned in the turnover battle again here, I have a tough time seeing how this won't be a double-digit win for the Sooners. Seeing Texas once already will help the defense in terms of understanding how they expect Texas to attack them. That's a similar case to what Oklahoma's defense did a year ago when they had one of their best performances in Big 12 play in their second meeting with a TCU squad (17 points allowed, fewest vs a Big 12 team not named Kansas) in that Big 12 title game. Texas probably gets to 20+ this week, but it won't be nearly enough to keep pace with this Sooners squad that should reach the mid-40's at a minimum.

Oklahoma wins this game by at least two TD's, as hopefully all this talk about Tom Herman's record as an underdog starts to become more of an afterthought going forward when he and the Longhorns crumble on this big stage.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bet #1: Oklahoma -8

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 14
November 28, 2018
By BetDSI

CFB Conference Championship Week Total Talk

It was a good final week of the regular season to follow the steam on the college football totals I outlined in this piece last week. All that money on the Stanford/UCLA 'over' and Rutgers/Michigan State 'under' go there with ease on those respective contests, but while Miami did get some revenge on Pitt for their 2017 loss, that dominant “turnover chain” defense the Hurricanes had in 2017 showed up as well, keeping that contest well below the number.

Now that the regular season has concluded, there are fewer CFB games on the betting board, but that doesn't mean that we haven't seen significant movement already on some totals. This week tends to be one of the more heavily bet weekends of the year in college football because of the stakes in play, and there was no need to wait until later in the week to get this piece out.

So let's get right to the bigger movers of the week on these totals to see if you are looking to jump on board now, or wait and possibly go the other way closer to kick-off.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Biggest Movers to the 'Over'

Fresno State vs. Boise State: Open: 49 – Current: 53

The Mountain West championship will be decided on the “Smurf Turf” at Boise State again this year, as it's a rematch between Boise State and Fresno State from last year's game. This will be the third time in the six-year history of the Mountain West title game that these two programs have squared off, and Boise State has hosted and won both of the previous two matchups. Neither of those title games finished with more than 42 total points scored, and considering the regular season matchup between these two finished with 41 total points, this big move upwards is a little surprising.

Both of these programs finished with winning records to the 'under' this year – Fresno was 4-8 O/U and Boise was 5-7 O/U – and yet this is a move that on the surface looks to be one that should be followed before it's faded. For the number to quickly jump through a key number of 51 and still hit another key number of 53 is something that can't be taken lightly, and with Boise's offense scoring 45 and 33 points in their two games since beating Fresno, the Broncos attack is riding a strong wave of momentum right now as well. Weather forecasts are calling for ideal early December weather in Boise so their shouldn't be much concern there either.

The fact that betting percentage numbers offered at VegasInsider.com show it's only about a 55/45 split in favor of the 'over' suggests it's a move to be followed as well, although the only concerning thing in that regard is the notion that the value in taking the 'over' is all but gone now and we will likely see some buyback to the low-side closer to kick-off. After all, each of these two teams finished the regular season on 0-4 O/U runs, and each of the past four meetings between the two have stayed 'under' as well with no more than 45 points scored in any of those games.

That makes this total one I'm more interested in monitoring as the week goes on, simply because if there is some buyback on the 'under' it will be interesting to see what happens if the total drops back to that key number of 51. Clearly there was plenty of love (and respect) in the markets for going 'over' that key number here as maybe we do see a game where it's something like 28-24 for either side. We did see how well following the steam did a week ago though, no matter the number, so if forced to make a play on this total now, it would have to be siding with the move on the high side of things.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Biggest Movers to the 'Under'

Memphis vs. UCF: Open: 70 – Current: 65

This move is much easier to explain as the big drop in the number is basically injury related. UCF lost QB McKenzie Milton to a horrific leg injury a week ago, and backup QB Darriel Mack Jr was able to do enough to keep the lead, get the W, and keep the undefeated UCF season intact. However, it's not like the freshman Mack was all that impressive in the effort (5-for-14 passing for just 81 yards) as he did enter the game with a double-digit lead and let the running game bring things home. If UCF wants to remain unbeaten this year, that can't be the case against a high-powered Memphis team that's looking for some revenge after a one-point defeat to UCF earlier this year.

UCF will likely lean heavily on the ground game once again this week, as they don't particularly want to get into a shootout without Milton at the helm. That should lead to the clock continuously running quite a bit here as UCF's defense does what it can to contain Memphis, and it's not like the Knights haven't been a great 'under' team recently either. UCF enters this championship game on a 1-7 O/U run overall and that's something casual fans/bettors might not figure when they think about this UCF program.

From a betting perspective now, the value in this number is long gone, and while the likelihood of some buyback isn't going to be necessarily as strong here as it could be in Fresno/Boise, I believe this total is nothing but a pass now. It's not like Memphis' defense hasn't been gashed on the ground this year, and UCF still has some explosive RB's in that stable of theirs that could break one off at any moment. The Tigers own attack can put up points in a hurry, and knowing that they don't have to deal with Milton in this game, building a multi-score lead early in the 2nd half and then going into prevent mode and giving up a few scores could be very decisive in the ultimate result on this total. Last year's meeting in the championship game was an epic OT shootout that finished with 117 points scored, so if you hadn't already gotten a piece of this 'under' at a better number, it's probably best to pass on this total now.

Best Total Bet for Championship Saturday

Georgia vs. Alabama Under 63.5

The SEC championship game is one that the entire CFB world has been waiting on for weeks now as it's a rematch from last year's National Championship, and one you know this Georgia team has been excited about for weeks. The Bulldogs have wanted to get another crack at 'Bama all year long, and with a win putting Georgia into the CFB Playoff again and a loss eliminating them, the stakes couldn't be much higher for the Bulldogs this week.

And while both programs have made improvements on offense this year compared to when they met last season, I do believe the number is still slightly too high all things considered. For one, an Alabama loss doesn't “guarantee” them a spot in the CFB playoff if it were to come in ugly fashion, and with that as the backdrop to Nick Saban's game planning, you can bet that he'll have his defense overly prepared for what he expects to see from Georgia.

At the same time, Kirby Smart will have his Bulldogs defense very prepared for what he expects to see from Alabama, as they did get caught off guard in the title game when Saban made the QB switch to Tua in the 2nd half. Like Alabama, Georgia has basically had a month to prepare and install bits of the game plan into their unit and that's never a bad thing for 'unders.'

Finally, both teams are coming off consecutive games of 'overs' cashing to end the year, with Alabama putting up 50+ in both wins, while Georgia averaged 50+ in their two victories. Those results have to be taken into consideration when putting out a total for this week, and because of them, I do believe the total is slightly inflated. Remember, the total for the National Title game a year ago closed at 45.5 and was a dead ringer for the 'under' before Alabama forced OT, and it still could have cashed had Georgia been the only team to score in that extra frame. Even with the improved offenses, this number is nearly three TD's higher than last year's meeting, and with two elite SEC teams going at it – a conference that's known for defense – I have a hard time seeing where 64+ points will come from.

Alabama had only two SEC games this year where the total closed in the 60's or higher and both of those games did find a way to cash 'under' tickets. This SEC title game should be no different as somewhere in the mid-50's is likely where this score tops out.

[StarDust Bum]

College Football Picks: Can OU avoid Big 12 champ upset?
November 28, 2018
By The Associated Press

There was a time when the Big 12 championship game was routinely a dream-wrecker for national title contenders.

From the first Big 12 title game in 1996 to 2010, the last before it took a hiatus while the conference realigned, the league's championship was won by the lower-ranked team five times. There was also a memorable near-upset.

No. 9 Texas tries to become the latest Big 12 team to spoil the conference's chances at a national championship Saturday when it faces No. 5 Oklahoma in Arlington, Texas. The Longhorns beat the Sooners in the regular season on a last-second field goal.

The very first Big 12 championship game set the tone for chaos to come: No. 3 Nebraska was upset 37-27 by unranked Texas. Two years later Texas A&M knocked off No. 2 Kansas State, keeping the Wildcats out of the very first BCS championship game. In 2003, Kansas State threw the BCS for a loop, blowing out No. 1 Oklahoma 35-7. The Sooners still made the championship game.

Missouri was No. 1 in the country in the unpredictable 2007 season when it was beaten by Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. Texas nearly had a BCS championship game appearance slip away in 2009 when it beat Nebraska 13-12, a game remembered most for Ndamukong Suh's dominant performance for the Cornhuskers.

The return of the Big 12 title game came with a new format. The 10-team conference no longer has divisions, but matches Nos. 1 and 2 in the standings. And because the Big 12 plays a round-robin, nine-game conference schedule, the championship game will always be a rematch. Conference leadership believed it needed an extra quality game to best position its champ for playoff selection and the risks outweighed the reward.

Oklahoma beat TCU to make the playoff last season. We'll see if Big 12 volatility makes an appearance with the Sooners in prime position to make it again, sitting at fifth in the playoff rankings, behind Georgia, which plays top-ranked Alabama in the Southeastern Conference championship.

The picks:

FRIDAY

MAC championship: Buffalo (minus 4) vs. Northern Illinois at Detroit

Some potential early-round NFL draft picks: WR Anthony Johnson and LB Khalil Hodge for the Bulls and DE Sutton Smith and OT Max Scharping for the Huskies ... BUFFALO 28-20.

Pac-12 championship: No. 17 Utah (plus 5) vs. No. 10 Washington at Santa Clara, California

Utes looking for first Pac-12 championship since joining the conference in 2011 ... WASHINGTON 21-20.

SATURDAY

Sun Belt championship: Louisiana-Lafayette (plus 18+) at Appalachian State

First Sun Belt championship game ... APPALACHIAN STATE 42-21.

Conference USA championship: UAB (plus 1) at Middle Tennessee

Blue Raiders beat the Blazers, who had already clinched C-USA West, 27-3 last week to earn a rematch ... UAB 23-20.

American Athletic championship: Memphis (plus 3) at No. 7 UCF

Last two meetings, including last season's AAC championship, have been wild affairs. The Knights won both by a combined 92-85, but UCF won't have injured QB McKenzie Milton this time ... MEMPHIS 38-35.

SEC championship: No. 4 Georgia (plus 13) vs. No. 1 Alabama at Atlanta

Only SEC title game between the Dawgs and Tide was one of the best, 32-28 Alabama, decided at the goal line in 2012 ... ALABAMA 38-21.

ACC championship: Pittsburgh (plus 26+) vs. No. 2 Clemson at Charlotte, North Carolina

Tigers trying to become first team to win four straight ACC championship games since it started in 2005 ... CLEMSON 42-10.

Big Ten championship: No. 21 Northwestern (plus 14) vs. No. 6 Ohio State at Indianapolis

Plucky Wildcats are in Big Ten title game for first time since it started in 2011 ... OHIO STATE 38-17.

Big 12 championship: Texas (plus 7+) vs. Oklahoma at Arlington, Texas

Sooners are allowing 47.5 points per game over the last four and have won them all ... OKLAHOMA 49-38.

Mountain West championship: Fresno State (plus 2+) at Boise State

Can the Bulldogs snap their blue-turf blues? Fresno State is 0-10 at Boise ... FRESNO STATE 24-20.

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Last week: 18-7 straight; 15-10 against the spread.

Season: 197-72 straight; 145-145-3 against the spread.

Upset specials: 7-6 (straight up).

Best bets: 5-6 (against the spread).

[StarDust Bum]

Georgia offense bracing for biggest test from Crimson Tide
November 28, 2018
By The Associated Press

ATHENS, Ga. (AP) Georgia's offense is peaking just in time for its ultimate stress test against Alabama.

The No. 4 Bulldogs (11-1, No. 4 CFP) scored a combined 111 points in their final two regular-season wins over UMass and Georgia Tech. Georgia stacked an impressive string of eight consecutive quarters without a punt over its final three games.

The challenge for Jake Fromm and the Bulldogs is to keep piling on the points against a stout Alabama defense and keep pace with the powerful Crimson Tide. A high-scoring game may be Georgia's best path to an upset win and repeat Southeastern Conference championship on Saturday.

Fromm has thrown 24 touchdown passes, including a combined 14 to Riley Ridley and Mecole Hardman. Freshman Justin Fields, best known for his running skills, has thrown four touchdown passes.

''I think it's going to be the best challenge we've had, honestly,'' said Alabama safety Xavier McKinney.

As usual, No. 1 Alabama (12-0, No. 1 CFP) has relied on strong defense. It is a rematch of last season's national championship game , a 26-23 overtime win for the Crimson Tide.

Alabama boasts its customary top-six national rankings in scoring defense and total defense. The defense has been overshadowed by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's big year, capped by his five touchdown passes in last week's 52-21 win over Auburn .

Fromm said he sees some of the same players back from the Alabama defense he faced at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in last season's national championship game. Since Georgia coach Kirby Smart is the former longtime Alabama defensive coordinator, Fromm said the Crimson Tide's defense also reminds him of the Georgia unit he faces in practice.

''Yeah, they definitely have some returning players,'' Fromm said. ''And they have some really good players. But schematically they're doing a lot of similar stuff they last year, very similar to our defense. And I think it's just kind of very similar to what we see every single day in practice, so hopefully we can be very successful with that.''

One year ago, Fromm was completing his freshman season while relying heavily on senior tailbacks Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Chubb and Michel became the first Georgia tandem to reach 1,000 yards rushing in the same season.

Incredibly, two different Georgia backs are within reach of 1,000 yards one year later. D'Andre Swift has topped 100 yards in four of the last five games to lead the Bulldogs with 962 yards rushing. Elijah Holyfield has 896 yards.

The success of the running game remains the foundation of Georgia's offensive success. Smart said he expected more big numbers on the ground even after losing Chubb and Michel to the NFL.

''Oh yeah. I knew we had a good offensive line coming back,'' Smart said after Tuesday's practice. ''... I knew we were talented on the offensive line and we had good backs. I knew we'd have the opportunity. Whether it would be two 1,000-yard rushers, we're not there yet but we're trying to get there. We probably could have had that. Some of the games we've had, we've taken those kids out and some of those kids haven't played much in games.''

Perhaps the biggest surprise is Swift and Holyfield kept enjoying success even while injuries forced constant changes on the offensive line.

''A lot of guys went down,'' Holyfield said. ''But we were very deep at the offensive line. It's one of our strongest positions on the team. So all the other guys who stepped up this year came in and did a really good job ... almost as if the 1 line's been in there the whole time.''

Asked how he thinks the line will handle the challenge from Alabama's defensive front, Holyfield said, ''I think we'll be fine.''

Fromm, both accurate and efficient, has been more than a game manager in his second season. He threw for four touchdowns in the 45-21 win over Georgia Tech despite attempting only 16 passes. He has completed 69.1 percent of his passes, a school-record pace that ranks eighth in the nation.

''They've got a great group of receivers, a lot of guys who are athletic, very talented, speedy,'' McKinney said. ''And then a great quarterback who makes good reads and good throws, accurate throws.''

[StarDust Bum]

By: Monty Andrews


Milton on the Mend

Central Florida will play for the American Athletic Conference title this weekend with injured quarterback McKenzie Milton on their minds. Milton suffered a gruesome leg injury in the Knights' 38-10 win over South Florida last week and will undergo reconstructive surgery on his right knee at a later date. But the good news is, a nerve at the site of the injury remained intact and blood flow has been restored to his lower leg. Milton finishes his Junior season with Central Florida with some eye-popping numbers, having thrown for 25 touchdowns while adding nine scores on the ground.

Oddsmakers are making the Milton injury a major factor in Central Florida's AAC championship game against visiting Memphis, with the host Knights just 3.5-point favorites despite having won 24 consecutive games. But with the home team a sizzling 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the UCF defense almost as strong as its offense, the Knights are a strong cover play.

Gamecocks Going for a Big Cover

Not every game this weekend will decide a conference championship; for the South Carolina Gamecocks, it's simply an opportunity to rack up one more dominant victory heading into bowl season. The Gamecocks host the Akron Zips in a non-conference showdown scheduled after South Carolina had a Sept. 15 meeting with Marshall postponed due to Hurricane Florence. The Zips aren't expected to be competitive in this one, coming in as 30-point underdogs to a Gamecocks side that fell 56-35 to Clemson last time out, but has covered in four consecutive games.

With South Carolina a perfect 2-0 ATS when favored by 30 or more points this season – outscoring the opposition 98-24 in those victories – and the Zips coming in having scored just 41 total points in their past three games, the Gamecocks are a great option not only to cover, but to hold the visitors below their team total, which sits at 13 as of Wednesday.


No Hope for Hokies' Run Game?

If the Virginia Tech Hokies hope to upend visiting Marshall in the regular-season finale for both teams, it will probably be through the air. The Thundering Herd come into the game having allowed a minuscule 2.8 yards per carry on the season so far, and rank sixth in Division I in yards allowed per game on the ground (100.5). And if that weren't daunting enough for the hosts, Marshall also ranks 16th in the country in third-down conversion defense (32 percent), while the Hokies are well below the national average in third-down success rate (37.3 percent).

With the Marshall defense looking as strong as ever (38 points allowed over the past three games), taking the visitors to win this one outright is a strong value play at +160. The Thundering Herd should also be able to keep the Hokies below their team total of 27.5 if they can control the time of possession.


Last Labor of Love

The "Big Game" could be missing a big contribution from a running back who began the season as a Heisman Trophy candidate. Bryce Love will look to wrap up a difficult Pac-12 season on a positive note as he leads the Stanford Cardinal into Memorial Stadium for a date with Cal. Love began the year as one of the leading candidates for college football's top individual awards, but injuries and ineffectiveness have him sitting on 655 rushing yards and six touchdowns. The Golden Bears boast one of the top run defenses in Division I, limiting foes to 136 yards per game on 3.9 YPC.

Love had 101 yards in last year's meeting with the Bears, but 57 of them came on a single rush – and he has had just one rush of 30 or more yards in his last five games. With just one 100-yard game on the year and the Cardinal expected to give Cameron Scarlett some work, we recommend taking the Under on Love's rushing yard total.