Cnotes 2018 College Football Thru The Bowl Games News- Trends-Stats-Best Bets !

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cfb record + best bets thru the bowl games:

date w-l-t % units record

12/01/2018 13-7-1 65.00% +26.50



best bets:

date............................ats............... .........units...................o/u...................units...............total

12/01/2018.................5 - 2........................+14.00.................5 - 1..................+19.50..............+33.50

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Top 6 picks for Week 13 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Colts -4 (1,029)

2) Steelers -3.5 (961)

3) Falcons -1 (911)

4) Giants +5.5 (826)

5) Patriots -5 (776)

6) Seahawks -9.5 (731)

Season record: 37-32-3

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College Playoff Primer
December 3, 2018
By Brian Edwards


The College Football Playoff is set after Sunday’s announcement of the nation’s top four teams. Unbeaten and top-ranked Alabama will square off against No. 4 Oklahoma, the Big 12 champion, at the Orange Bowl in Miami in one semifinal matchup on Dec. 29.


The other game is also on Dec. 29 and will be at Jerry World in Arlington, where undefeated and second-ranked Clemson will take on unbeaten No. 3 Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl. The winners will collide in the finals on Jan. 7 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern in Santa Clara at Levi’s Stadium, the home of the NFL’s San Francisco 49ers.


As of Sunday night, most betting shops had Alabama (13-0 straight up, 8-5 against the spread) installed as a 14-point favorite with a total of 79.5. The Sooners were +400 on the money line (risk $100 to win $400).


Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had to leave the SEC Championship Game with a foot injury that’s expected to have him sidelined for at least two weeks. Without the sophomore QB, back-up and former starter Jalen Hurts rallied the Crimson Tide from a 28-14 deficit to win 35-28 over Georgia in an epic thriller.


Lincoln Riley’s squad avenged its only loss of the season – a 48-45 setback vs. Texas in the Red River Rivalry – by beating the Longhorns 39-27 in Saturday’s Big 12 Championship Game at Jerry World. The Sooners will be underdogs for the first time this season. They were ‘dogs three times last year in Riley’s first season since taking over for Bob Stoops, compiling a 2-1 record both SU and ATS. OU lost a 54-48 decision to Georgia as a 2.5-point ‘dog in last year’s CFP semifinals in Pasadena.


This is Oklahoma’s richest underdog spot since the 2013 Sugar Bowl, where OU thumped Alabama by a 45-31 count as a 15-point puppy. The Sooners have won outright in both of their most recent situations as double-digit ‘dogs, beating Oklahoma St. 33-24 in Stillwater as 10-point road ‘dogs in the 2013 regular-season finale.


These storied programs played a home-and-home series back in 2002 and 2003. OU won a 37-27 decision in Norman as a 12.5-point favorite. The Sooners went to Tuscaloosa the following season and won 20-13 at ‘Bama, but the Tide covered the number once again as a 7.5-point home underdog.


Clemson won the ACC title with a 42-10 win over Pittsburgh as a 27.5-point ‘chalk.’ As of Sunday night, most books had the Tigers listed as 11-point favorites against the Fighting Irish. The total was in the 55-56 range and Notre Dame was +325 to win outright (paid $325 on $100 wagers).


Dabo Swinney’s club is in the CFP for the fourth straight year. Like ‘Bama, Clemson has been a double-digit favorite in all 13 of its games, winning by at least 20 points 11 times. Meanwhile, Brian Kelly’s bunch is an underdog for only the second time this season. The Irish beat Michigan 24-17 in its opener as a 2.5-point home underdog. They haven’t been double-digit ‘dogs since the 2016 regular-season finale resulted in a non-cover when USC beat them 45-27 as 17.5-point home ‘chalk.’


Georgia finished No. 5 and Ohio State, the Big Ten champ, was sixth in the final CFP poll. The Bulldogs will meet Texas in the Sugar Bowl, while Ohio State will face Washington at the Rose Bowl. As of Sunday night, most spots had the Bulldogs favored by 10.5 points, while the Buckeyes were 4.5-point ‘chalk’ vs. UW.


Other New Year’s Six matchups include LSU (-7.5) vs. UCF at the Sugar Bowl and Michigan (-6) vs. Florida at the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl. Michigan junior DE Rashan Gary announced Sunday that’s he’s turning pro and will not play in his team’s bowl game. Gary had 44 tackles, four tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, and five QB hurries in nine games.

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Army vs. Navy
Tom Wilkinson

The script has flipped in the Army-Navy rivalry, as now it is Army that is the better team and on a winning streak in the series. The Navy Midshipmen beat Army for 14 straight seasons and the series became known more for the “streak” than anything else.

That changed two years ago when Army broke the streak and now it is the Army Black Knights who have won two straight. Let’s look at this matchup on Saturday and college football picks.

Date and Time: Saturday, December 8, 2018, 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
College Football Odds: Army -7, O/U 41
Army vs. Navy TV Coverage: CBS

This season the favorite in this game is Army, as they come into the game ranked in the Top 25 in the country, while Navy won just three games and finished 3-9. The Black Knights are not worried about extending the streak to three against Army; they are just concerned about winning this game. “It’s not really about the streak. It’s about winning the next game. That is what Army football is all about,” Army starting center Bryce Holland said to the media, “We always talk about going 1-0 each week. So we’re not worried about holding on to some streak. We’re concerned with winning this next game against Navy.”

Despite the fact that Army is the better team this season, head coach Jeff Monken is not confident. “I’m scared to death, just like I always am leading up to this game,” Monken said to the media, “For one, I know that Navy is really well-coached. I know Kenny and his staff will have their team very well prepared.”

Monken said that Navy could easily have finished with a winning record this season, as they lost to SMU by a point in overtime and to Tulane by a point. They also blew leads and lost to Temple and Houston.

This series has seen close games and it hasn’t mattered what the records of the two teams were. Navy won 11 games in 2015 and had to get two interceptions late in the game to hold on for a 21-17 win. Army had their best season in twenty years last season and yet they had to survive a missed field goal at the end to win 14-13.

It should be noted that Army has found a way to win close games. Nine of their last 19 wins have been by seven points or less. “They are doing a really good job of continuing to battle to the finish,” Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo said to the media, “They got a belief. They have a system in what they are doing offensively and defensively. It’s really impressive with what they have done.”

Matchup to Watch

Both of these teams love to run the ball, as Navy is third in the country in rushing yards per game, while Army is second. The difference in these two teams is on defense. How is Navy going to slow down the Army rushing attack? Navy is 89th in the country against the run. On the other side, the Army defense is 12th in the country against the run.

Key Stats

The Midshipmen are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Midshipmen are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Midshipmen are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. The Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Under is 14-4 in Navy’s last 18 games in December. The Under is 9-3 in Navy’s last 12 neutral site games. The Under is 13-3 in the Black Knights last 16 games in December. The Under is 16-5 in the Black Knights last 21 neutral site games. The Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 15

Saturday, December 8

Navy @ Army

Game 103-104
December 8, 2018 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Navy
78.171
Army
88.942
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Army
by 11
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Army
by 6 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Army
(-6 1/2); Over




NCAAF
Long Sheet

Saturday, December 8

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NAVY (3 - 9) vs. ARMY (9 - 2) - 12/8/2018, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARMY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
NAVY is 172-131 ATS (+27.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 172-131 ATS (+27.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 98-60 ATS (+32.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NAVY is 156-118 ATS (+26.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 74-42 ATS (+27.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 80-45 ATS (+30.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
ARMY is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
ARMY is 16-35 ATS (-22.5 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARMY is 2-0 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons
ARMY is 2-0 straight up against NAVY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

tba here....




NCAAF

Week 15

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Trend Report
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Saturday, December 8

Navy Midshipmen
Navy is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Navy is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Navy's last 6 games
Navy is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Army
Navy is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing Army
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Navy's last 5 games when playing Army
Army Black Knights
Army is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Army's last 7 games
Army is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Navy
Army is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games when playing Navy
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Army's last 5 games when playing Navy

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Tech Trends - Week 15
December 5, 2018
By Bruce Marshall

SATURDAY, DEC. 8

Matchup Skinny Edge

ARMY vs. NAVY (at Philadelphia)...Navy closed with covers in its last three, and was 4-3 as dog in 2018. Niumatalolo 32-17 as dog since 2009. Army has covered last four away from home TY. Army has covered 4 straight and 6 of 7 in series but was a dog in every one of those, in fact has not been favored in series since 2001. Mids had won 14 in a row SU vs. Black Knights prior to narrow, late losses past two seasons. Note 12 straight "unders" in series.
Slight to Under" and slight to Navy, based on "totals" and team trends

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 8
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NAVY at ARMY 03:00 PM
NAVY +7.5
O 40.0

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Tuesday’s 6-pack

Highest payrolls in the NBA:

6) Portland Trailblazers $131,747,436

5) Houston Rockets $134,843,975

4) Toronto Raptors $141,265,305

3) Golden State Warriors $145,699,527

2) Oklahoma City Thunder $146,463,850

1) Miami Heat $158,203,135

Quote of the Day
“I think your play is embarrassing, me subbing them is saving them, maybe. Maybe we saved them. The pro player thing, this is basketball; this is about honoring the game and doing the right things.

Embarrassment is not giving the effort in that Bulls uniform, so I put five guys in that I thought could put the effort in. They’re disappointed, they feel bad about it. We need some leadership to step up, we need some guys to take leadership roles on the team.”
Chicago Bulls’ coach Jim Boylen

Tuesday’s quiz
Who was the Detroit Lions coach last time they won a playoff game?

Monday’s quiz
Matt Prater (then with the Broncos) holds the record for the longest FG in NFL history (64 yards); he kicked it against the Tennessee Titans.

Sunday’s quiz
Dwyane Wade played his college basketball at Marquette.

***********************

Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) Saturday night the Chicago Bulls lost by 56 points to Boston- they lost at home, 133-76, which is obviously not good and it came a couple games after a coaching change.

But this is worse; on Sunday, the Bulls refused to practice, because new coach Jim Boylen held a couple of two-hour practices earlier in the week. During the season with lot of games, NBA teams don’t have 2-hour practices very often.

Chicago is 6-21, last in the Eastern Conference; their team payroll is $103,926,708, which is 2nd-lowest in the NBA. Their team sucks, but guys get mad when the coach shows them up by subbing out five guys at a time- they revolt at practicing. How do you get better?

I’m getting old…..lol

12) Baseball’s winter meetings are this week in Las Vegas, good chance to think ahead to next spring and also to feel warmer. Thinking about baseball takes some of the chill out of the air.

11) ESPN’s Sunday night baseball games will move an hour next year, starting at 7:00 instead of 8, which means there will be overlap with the 4:00 games on DirecTV, which is fine.

10) Tampa Bay Rays went 44-34 LY when they used an “opener” to pitch the first inning of a game; they’ve said they will use that tactic again in 2019.

9) Oakland Raiders fired GM Reggie McKenzie Monday; when you’re paying the coach $100M over ten years, you have to give him control of the franchise, so they told McKenzie to take a hike. Dallas/Chicago are two of the hottest teams in the NFL, thanks in large part to players they got from Oakland, which stockpiled draft picks as it prepares to move to Las Vegas in 2020.

8) 32-year old backup QB Josh Johnson, on his sixth NFL team, led two TD drives Sunday against the Giants; he said he used the Madden NFL video game in order to learn some of the names on the Redskins’ roster- he played Sunday despite only being on the team for five days.

Johnson was picked in the AAF draft last week; not sure now if he’ll play in the new spring league, if he finished the season with Redskins, which he figures to do.

Mark Sanchez said last week that the first time he talked to LT Trent Williams was in the huddle on the field in the Redskins’ loss at Philadelphia LW. Hard to win that way.

7) Tennessee 76, Gonzaga 73— Impressive win on a neutral floor for Rick Barnes’ Volunteers; they made 12-29 on the arc, with Schofield going 6-10.

6) I wonder how Michael O’Keefe’s acting career would’ve turned out if he hadn’t played golf against Judge Smails in Caddyshack.

5) Iowa State football coach Matt Campbell agreed to a contract extension through 2024 and has gotten $1M in additional salary for his assistant coaches, good news for Cyclone fans.

4) Kansas State is expected to hire North Dakota State’s Chris Kleiman its football coaching job; he is expected to accept the job but he is also expected to coach North Dakota State as far as they go in I-AA Playoffs. Kleiman is 67-6 at NDSU and has won three national titles.

3) Oakland A’s new AAA affiliate will be called the Las Vegas Aviators, a logo that I predict will take off in popularity.

2) Harold Baines is in the Baseball Hall of Fame? I’m not buying that, but it guarantees that Edgar Martinez is getting in down the road, which is a good thing.

1) I don’t get why the Heisman Trophy TV show is an hour long; a complete waste of 45 minutes. Introduce the four finalists and tell us who won; dragging it out to an hour must make money or they wouldn’t do it, but I never watch it- just let me know who won.

Best thing about the college football playoff is that it has taken a lot of the focus away from this individual award. I remember Joe Tessitore talking about the Heisman during a game on Labor Day weekend a few years ago, thats how ridiculous it had gotten.

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Las Vegas Bowl
December 10, 2018
By Bookmaker

by Kyle Markus

Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

The Fresno State Bulldogs proved to be the class of the Mountain West Conference this season, and will look to put a feather in its cap with a victory in the Las Vegas Bowl. They will take on a major conference foe in the Arizona State Sun Devils out of the Pac-12.

This should be a good showdown as upper-tier non-Power 5 schools and middle of the road major-conference teams tend to match up well. The Bulldogs are expected to be the slight favorites but this game could go either way in NCAA football gambling.

This NCAA football game between the Arizona State Sun Devils and Fresno State Bulldogs will be held at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada at 3:30 p.m ET on Saturday, December 15th, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on ABC.

We'll have NCAA football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NCAAFB season.

Odds Analysis

Fresno State is listed as a four-point favorite to capture this game. The neutral site location makes it so that neither team gets points for the home field, which means the oddsmakers believe the Bulldogs are the slightly more talented team.

The Sun Devils are the +160 underdogs on the moneyline, while Fresno State is the -185 favorite. The scoring total is listed at 52 points.

Injury Report

Arizona State star wide receiver N’Keal Harry isn’t hurt, but he’s not going to play in this game to avoid that exact fate. Harry is projected to be a first-round pick in the NFL draft, and like other stars, has decided to bypass the bowl game. It is a trend that has become more popular in recent years and it is hard to blame a player like Harry for thinking about his future.

It is a big loss, as Harry has 73 catches for 1,088 yards and nine touchdowns on the season. He has also been an impactful punt returner and Arizona State’s offense will not be as scary without him. The Sun Devils still have a senior quarterback in Manny Wilkins, but figure to lean on star running back Eno Benjamin, who has amassed 1,524 yards and 15 touchdowns on the season.

Key Stat

38. That’s the number of points Fresno State scored in its other game against a Pac-12 team, rolling to a 24-point win over the UCLA Bruins in non-conference action early in the year. Quarterback Marcus McMaryion had a solid game, completing 22-of-33 passes for 270 yards and a touchdown.

Fresno State averaged a meager 2.9 yards per carry in the contest and will need to do better than that on the ground against Arizona State. The Sun Devils are a much better team than UCLA and this one does not seem likely to be a blowout.

Free NCAA Football ATS Picks

Fresno State has a star quarterback in McMaryion who has thrown 25 touchdowns and only three interceptions on the season. However, the Arizona State defense has been solid this season and will make him earn the yards in this one.

If the Sun Devils had Harry they would be the pick, but his absence is going to make the offense too one-dimensional. Fresno State will have the better passing game and that will be the difference in this matchup. Take the Bulldogs to knock off another Pac-12 team to wrap up a very successful season.

However, Arizona State is the choice to cover as this should be a competitive matchup in NCAAFB odds.

NCAAFB ATS Pick: Fresno State Bulldogs 24, Arizona State Sun Devils 21

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College Bowl Pick'em
December 10, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

The 2018-19 bowl lineup is out with 39 games to watch over the next few weeks leading to the National Championship game in Santa Clara, California on Monday January 7. Alabama is the favorite to win it all as the Crimson Tide face Oklahoma in one of two college football playoff games on December 29.

During the holiday season, bettors have the opportunity to earn extra cash with "College Bowl Pick ‘em" contests where all you have to do is pick the winner, which isn’t as easy as it looks.

The most popular contest has you picking the winner of all 39 Bowl games and ranking them with confidence, starting with 39 as the most confident pick and counting all the way down to 1 as least confident.

The two picks in this contest are the double-digit favorites in the playoff games. Clemson faces Notre Dame as 11-point favorites in the Cotton Bowl although both teams are undefeated. Since edging Syracuse by four points earlier this season, the Tigers have cruised through their schedule by winning the last eight games by at least 20 points.

Defending national champion Alabama needed to rally past Georgia to capture the SEC championship, but the Crimson Tide are still the team to beat. ‘Bama squares off with Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, as the Sooners grabbed the Big 12 title but are being criticized due to their lack of defense.

Outside of the two playoff games, the next most confident pick on the board is actually a short underdog. Syracuse is coming off a resurgent season in which it finished at 9-3, with two of the losses coming to Clemson and Notre Dame. The Orange face West Virginia in the Camping World Bowl, but the Mountaineers will be without quarterback Will Grier, who is setting his sights on preparing for the NFL. WVU finished the season with back-to-back losses, while giving up 104 points to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.

Below are all 39 bowls ranked from 39-1. Happy Bowl Season!

2018-19 COLLEGE BOWL PICK 'EM STRAIGHT UP

Point Value Bowl Game Matchup Prediction

39 Cotton Bowl Clemson vs. Notre Dame Clemson

38 Orange Bowl Alabama vs. Oklahoma Alabama

37 Camping World Bowl Syracuse vs. West Virginia Syracuse

36 Gator Bowl Texas A&M vs. N.C. State Texas A&M

35 Fiesta Bowl LSU vs. UCF LSU

34 Sugar Bowl Georgia vs. Texas Georgia

33 Redbox Bowl Oregon vs. Michigan State Oregon

32 Sun Bowl Stanford vs. Pittsburgh Stanford

31 Pinstripe Bowl Miami (FL) vs. Wisconsin Miami

30 Potato Bowl BYU vs. Western Michigan BYU

29 Birmingham Bowl Memphis vs. Wake Forest Memphis

28 First Responder Bowl Boise State vs. Boston College Boise State

27 Cheez-It Bowl California vs. TCU California

26 Alamo Bowl Washington State vs. Iowa State Washington State

25 Armed Forces Bowl Houston vs. Army Houston

24 Music City Bowl Auburn vs. Purdue Auburn

23 Independence Bowl Temple vs. Duke Temple

22 Peach Bowl Florida vs. Michigan Florida

21 Hawaii Bowl Louisiana Tech vs. Hawai'i Louisiana Tech

20 Boca Raton Bowl UAB vs. Northern Illinois UAB

19 Citrus Bowl Penn State vs. Kentucky Penn State

18 Dollar General Bowl Troy vs. Buffalo Troy

17 Quick Lane Bowl Minnesota vs. Georgia Tech Minnesota

16 Rose Bowl Ohio State vs. Washington Ohio State

15 Holiday Bowl Utah vs. Northwestern Utah

14 Texas Bowl Vanderbilt vs. Baylor Vanderbilt

13 Gasparilla Bowl Marshall vs. USF Marshall

12 New Orleans Bowl Appalachian State vs. Middle Tennessee State Appalachian State

11 Outback Bowl Iowa vs. Mississippi State Iowa

10 Frisco Bowl San Diego State vs. Ohio San Diego State

9 New Mexico Bowl North Texas vs. Utah State North Texas

8 Liberty Bowl Missouri vs. Oklahoma State Missouri

7 Military Bowl Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech Cincinnati

6 Las Vegas Bowl Arizona State vs. Fresno State Arizona State

5 Cure Bowl Louisiana vs. Tulane Louisiana

4 Camellia Bowl Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia Southern Eastern Michigan

3 Bahamas Bowl Toledo vs. FIU Toledo

2 Belk Bowl Virginia vs. South Carolina Virginia

1 Arizona Bowl Arkansas State vs. Nevada Arkansas State

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2018-19 bowls

December 15

New Mexico Bowl

Underdogs covered five of last six New Mexico Bowls. Utah State won this bowl four years ago, but lost 23-21/26-20 in last two bowls. Aggies are 10-2, losing first/last game; they were held 100 YR in both losses. State is 9-3 vs spread in last dozen games as a favorite. North Texas is in its 3rd straight bowl; they lost 38-31/50-30 in bowls last two years. Favorites covered their last five bowl games. UNT is 9-3 this year; their last three games were all decided by exactly 3 points. Under Littrell, Mean Green is 10-9 as an underdog, 1-1 this year. Mountain West teams are 3-4 in this bowl last seven years. Under is 10-1 in UNT games this season; over is 8-3-1 in Utah State games. Last seven years, MW teams are 13-11 vs spread when playing a C-USA opponent.

Cure Bowl, Orlando

Tulane is in its first bowl since 2013; they had to beat a poor Navy team 29-28 in finale just to get to 6-6 and be bowl-eligible. Green Wave beat ULL 41-39 (-5) in OT in last meeting two years ago. Tulane won four of its last five games overall; they’re 1-4 vs spread as a favorite this year, after being 7-4 last two years. UL-Lafayette is in 6th bowl in last nine years, but first one that wasn’t in New Orleans; Ragin’ Cajuns are 7-0 when they score 31+ points, 0-5 when they don’t. Tulane allowed 31+ in only one of its last six games. Dogs won two of three Cure Bowls, with Sun Belt team winning last two. Last five years, Sun Belt teams are 9-7 vs spread when playing an AAC team. Five of last six Tulane games, four of last five ULL games stayed under total.

Las Vegas Bowl

Fresno State won Mountain West title game in Boise Dec 1st; only 14 days between games for them. Underdogs won last two Las Vegas bowls; favorites are 4-3 vs spread in last seven. Pac-12 teams are 4-2 vs spread in last six visits here. Herm Edwards is coaching his first bowl game; ASU’s star WR Harry is skipping this game so he doesn’t get hurt- he is headed to NFL. ASU won four of its last five games; they’re 4-1 in games decided by 4 or fewer points. Sun Devils are 2-3 in last five bowls, losing 43-42/52-31 in last two. Bulldogs snapped 4-game bowl losing streak when they won Hawai’i Bowl 33-27 LY. Since 2012, Mountain West teams are 4-6 vs spread when favored over a Pac-12 team. Eight of last nine Fresno games stayed under the total.

Camellia Bowl, Montgomery, AL

Eastern Michigan is in just its third bowl game ever, 2nd since 1985; they lost Bahamas Bowl 24-20 to Old Dominion two years ago. Eagles won five of their last six games after a 2-4 start; they’re 2-4 this year in games decided by less than 7 points. EMU is 4-6 vs spread in its last 10 games as a favorite. Georgia Southern has one of most experienced OL’s in country; they’re in only their 5th year of I-A football. GSU is Eagles pounded Bowling Green 58-27 in its only bowl game, three years ago. MAC teams are 14-11 vs spread in their last 25 games vs Sun Belt opponents. Sun Belt teams split four Camellia Bowls; average total in four games was 61.3. Seven of last nine EMU games stayed under total; five of last six Ga Southern games went over.

New Orleans Bowl

Favorites won/covered last three New Orleans Bowls; Sun Belt team won this game five of last seven years. Appalachian State is 10-2 with an OT loss at Penn State that they led in the last minute of regulation. ASU is 3-0 in bowl games, scoring 31+ points in all three- this is only their 5th year as a I-A team. Middle Tennessee State won five of last seven games, splitting pair with UAB; they’re 4-3 vs spread as an underdog this year. Sun Belt teams covered eight of their last ten games with C-USA opponents. Six of last eight ASU games stayed under the total; three of Blue Raiders’ last four games went over. ASU’s coach has already jumped ship for the Louisville job; MTSU’s senior QB is the head coach’s son, so this will be an emotional game for them.

Dec 18

Boca Raton Bowl, Boca Raton, FL

UAB didn’t field a football team in 2015-16; they went 8-5 LY, lost their bowl game 41-6, then went 10-3 this year, winning C-USA title Dec 1. All three Blazer losses are by 21+ points. Northern Illinois is 8-5 after winning MAC title 30-29 over Buffalo Nov 30; Huskies lost their last five bowls, last three by 22+ points each. NIU is 7-0 when it scores 24+ points, 1-5 when they don’t; in their last four games (2-2) they were -7 in turnovers. Huskies have a top 10 OL in experience. Favorites covered three of first four Boca Raton Bowls, with average total of 64.8; C-USA teams are 3-0 in this game. Last two years, C-USA teams are 7-5 vs spread when playing MAC teams. Under is 9-4 in NIU games this season; four of last five UAB games went over.

Dec 19

Frisco Bowl, Frisco, TX

San Diego State lost its last three games after a 7-2 start, which is how they wound up here- they lost SU as 18 and 24-point home favorites in November. Aztecs covered five of their last six tries as an underdog. Ohio U won five of its last six games, scoring 52-49 points in last two; Bobcats are 11-6 vs spread in their last 17 games as a favorite. Last eight years, Mountain West teams are 16-13 vs spread when playing a MAC team, 6-6 when an underdog. San Diego St is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they scored 34+ points in last three. Ohio won its bowl 41-6 LY, snapping a 3-bowl losing skid. Under is 6-3 in Aztecs’ last nine games, 1-4 in Ohio’s last five. Favorites covered three of four Frisco Bowls, with an average total of 77.3.

Dec 20

Gasparilla Bowl, Tampa

Home game for South Florida, which lost its last five games (all by 10+ points) after a 7-0 start; Bulls threw for a combined 195 yards in last two games- they allowed 220+ RY in six of their last seven games. Under Strong, USF is 5-11 vs spread as a favorite, 1-5 this year. Bulls won four of last five bowls, with average total of 79 in last three. Marshall won five of its last seven games; they’re 7-2 vs spread in last nine games as an underdog. Thundering Herd won its last six bowl games. Marshall has a big edge in experience on OL. Favorites covered this bowl four of last six years, with average total of 30.0 last three years. AAC teams are 14-13 vs spread when facing a C-USA squad, 1-4 this year. Three of last four USF games stayed under total; over is 4-1 in last five Marshall games.

Dec 21

Bahamas Bowl

C-USA/MAC teams split the four Bahamas Bowls, with an average total of 66; FIU is 1-2 in bowl games, losing 28-3 to Temple LY- coach Davis is 5-3 in bowls. Panthers split their last four games after a 6-2 start; under Davis, they’re 6-3 vs spread as underdogs, 3-0 this year. FIU was outgained by 238+ yards in three of their last four losses. Toledo lost its last two bowls, getting blanked 34-0 by Appalachian St LY as a 7-point favorite. Rockets won four of their last five games after a 3-4 start, scoring 56-51 points in last two games; Toledo allowed 412+ TY in 10 of their last 11 games- they’re 2-5 vs spread in their last seven games as a single-digit favorite. Last five FIU games went over the total; over is 7-4 in Toledo games.

Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise

BYU won at Arizona/Wisconsin in September, but lost three of last five games, and stumbles in here with 6-6 record. Cougars didn’t go to a bowl LY, and lost three of their last four bowls before that- they did hold last six opponents to 327 or fewer TY. Western Michigan has 1-7 record in bowl games, with only win over MTSU in the Bahamas three years ago. Broncos lost three of their last four games after a 6-2 start; they allowed 42+ points in all five of their losses, are 7-0 when they give up less than 40 points. WMU lost two games that they scored 42+ points in this season. BYU is 9-4 vs spread in last 13 games as a double digit favorite; . Western Michigan Four of last five BYU games stayed under total; last four WMU games went over.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s 6-pack

— Penn 78, Villanova 75— Villanova’s 25-game Big Five win streak ends.

— Colorado 78, New Mexico 75— Buffs were down 17, improve to 8-1.

— New Mexico gets 6-10 Kansas transfer Carlton Bragg eligible Sunday

— Spurs 111, Suns 86— Popovich moves into 4th place on all-time win list.

— Orioles hired Cubs bench coach Brandon Hyde as their new manager.

— Texas Rangers hired former P Brandon McCarthy to help out in aspects of pitching development in the major and minor leagues.

Quote of the Day
“Sometimes it makes it worse when it’s right there. If you get blown out it doesn’t seem to hurt as bad as when you have a chance.’’
Ben Roethlisberger

Wednesday’s quiz
The Clippers were in San Diego before they played in LA; what was the team’s name before they moved to San Diego?
(Hint: They had 2 or 3 really good/well-known players)

Tuesday’s quiz
Wayne Fontes was Lions’ coach in 1991, last time Detroit won a playoff game.

Monday’s quiz
Matt Prater (then with the Broncos) holds the record for the longest FG in NFL history (64 yards); he kicked it against the Tennessee Titans.

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Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings…….

13) Things you don’t see much; Dallas ran 93 plays Sunday, Philly only 48.

Cannot remember last time an NFL team ran 93 plays in a game. Cowboys had only done it once before EVER, running 94 plays in a 1978 win over Green Bay.

Does being on the field for 93 plays have a hangover effect this week, when the Eagles visit the Rams in Los Angeles?

12) Very few NFL games get butchered the way New England butchered their loss in Miami last week; Brady took a sack at the end of the first half when Patriots were out of timeouts and in the red zone, costing his team three points, a horrible mistake that was a lot like Russell Wilson’s INT at the end of the first half Monday night.

Then Miami scoring on a 69-yard desperation play to get the walk-off win; why is Gronkowski on the field for that play? Play started on the Miami 31; Tannehill ain’t throwing a Hail Mary pass 70+ yards. I’m guessing the Patriots’ flight home and defensive meetings Monday couldn’t have been very pleasant.

11) Minnesota Vikings fired OC John DeFilippo Tuesday, after the Vikings got whacked 21-7 by the Seahawks Monday night. Mike Zimmer has gone thru lot of QB’s/OC’s in his tenure as the Vikings’ coach.

10) Royals signed free agent OF Billy Hamilton, who runs really fast but as my dad often said, “He can’t steal first base.” When your on-base% is under .300, that not good.

9) More baseball dealings:
— Phillies gave Andrew McCutchen $16.7M a year for three years.
— Blue Jays released oft-injured SS Troy Tulowitzki, who is still owed $38M.
— White Sox acquired P Ivan Nova from Pittsburgh.

8) Steph Curry is going to host a PGA Tour event at Lake Merced Golf Club in Daly City, CA, starting in the 2019-20 season. The tournament doesn’t have a sponsor yet; the golf course is going to get $3.6M in upgrades before then.

7) Memphis Grizzlies equipment assistant Brianè Miller was offered $100,000 for the sneakers LeBron James gave her over the weekend, but she says she has no interest in selling them.

6) ESPN released 11 Sunday night telecasts for 2019; what a surprise- five Red Sox games, four Bronx games, three Dodger games, zero Astros games. And they wonder why the sport isn’t as popular as it used to be? Houston is the 4th-biggest city in the country and they are one of the best teams— put their young stars on TV!!!!

This doesn’t even need to be stated, but A’s/Rays aren’t on the list. Both won 90+ games LY.

5) MLB Network is great this week, watching stuff from Winter Meetings every day, but then they put this guy Charlie Montoyo on Tuesday at 6pm, and I had no idea he was Toronto’s new manager. He worked for Kevin Cash in Tampa for four years, so thats a good thing these days, working with another successful manager.

4) So its 4am Monday night/Tuesday morning and I’m winding down getting ready for bed, then I hear trucks outside, and they start jackhammering the road across street from me, digging this big hole. Seven feet deep, 25-30 feet long. It is freakin’ 4am!!!!

So much for sleep……or water. Must’ve been a leak in the pipes.

Water came back on 11 hours later, the road looks like it is a war zone, kind of killed the day, though not having water to take a shower forced me to get some sleep. Feel bad for guys who are outside at 4am in 15-degree weather fixing plumbing.

3) City of Oakland is suing the Raiders, making it evident that this will be the Raiders’ last year playing home games in Oakland- they’re moving to Las Vegas in 2020.

2) Football coaches are nomads: Ole Miss hired former Colorado coach Mike MacIntyre as its new defensive coordinator, which will make their defense a lot better. Ole Miss will have two new coordinators next year; their OC Phil Longo is off to the same job at North Carolina.

Former Bowling Green coach Mike Jinks is the new running backs coach at USC; no offense to the fine folks at Bowling Green, but thats a promotion- RB coach at USC is a better job than HC at Bowling Green- what a storied history of RB’s the Trojans have had.

1) Former Tennessee football coach Butch Jones was hired this week by Maryland as an assistant to new head coach Mike Locksley; both guys were assistants at Alabama this season.

Colin Kaepernick should go be an assistant coach at Alabama; maybe he could get a job in the NFL then. Every other Saban assistant gets a new job fairly quickly.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack

Looking at teams who allowed highest %age of 20+-yard plays on 1st down:

— Patriots have allowed 56 plays plays of 20+ yards; 37 on 1st down (66.1%)

— Chargers 32 of 52 plays (61.5%)

— Jets 42 of 71 plays (59.2%)

— Buccaneers 37 of 65 plays (56.9%)

— Steelers 30 of 55 plays (54.5%)

— Eagles 34 of 64 plays (53.1%)

— Lowest %age: Dallas 11 of 40 plays (27.5%)

Quote of the Day
“He’s good at basketball. I get asked that every day. I don’t know how to answer that anymore. Nothing he does surprises me.’’
Steve Kerr, talking about Steph Curry

Thursday’s quiz
Where did Steph Curry play his college basketball?

Wednesday’s quiz
The Clippers were in San Diego before they played in LA; they were the Buffalo Braves before they moved to San Diego, with Bob McAdoo, Jim McMillian, Randy Smith, Ernie DeGregorio.

Tuesday’s quiz
Wayne Fontes was Lions’ coach in 1991, last time Detroit won a playoff game.

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Thursday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) If you were a college football player, which bowl would you NOT want to play in? There are a ton of bowls, 39 if I counted right. We’ll talk about this later on this month, but no way would I want to go somewhere cold, like Boise or the Bronx or Detroit. Bowl games should be warm; at least the game in Detroit is indoors.

Anyway, did you know players get swag bags at bowl games? Here are three of some of the best swag collections EVERY player gets at these games………

12) New Mexico Bowl North Texas vs. Utah State
— Oakley Jupiter Squared sunglasses
— Oakley 5 Speed backpack
— Bluetooth speaker
— water bottle
— beanie
— Montgomery pen
— Pacific Headwear trucker’s cap

11) Valero Alamo Bowl Iowa State vs. Washington State
— $425 Amazon gift card— Every kid gets $425, a good deal for the scrubs
— Fossil watch
— mini helmet
— team panoramic photo

10) AutoZone Liberty Bowl Missouri vs. Oklahoma State ¦
— Shopping trip to Memphis’ Bass Pro Shops
— Bose SoundLink micro Bluetooth speaker;
— Bulova watch
— Nike athletic shoes
— sport sandals
— backpack and sunglasses
— football

9) Minnesota QB coach Kevin Stefanski will take over as the new offensive coordinator of the Minnesota Vikings, after John DeFilippo was fired Tuesday. Here’s an idea; let your QB call his own damn plays— he makes $28M a year, I’m guessing he could do it.

8) We mentioned the other day how Mike MacIntyre got fired as the head coach at Colorado and is now the DC at Ole Miss. Turns out that MacIntyre will now be making over $1M more per year than he was at Colorado, and he’s not even the head coach.

7) I have the NBA Full Court package on DirecTV; I enjoy watching good basketball, but I read the stuff about the Chicago Bulls revolting against their new coach and not wanting to practice the day after a 56-point loss and it makes me want to cancel my subscription.

Not sure what the solution is, but the league has a problem on its hands.

6) The sport that loses the most in transition from in person to on TV is hockey. If you’ve never gone to a college or pro hockey game, you should— it is great fun. Watch the officials; they’re such great skaters.

5) I think Bob Uecker should’ve gotten an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor for his role as Indians’ radio announcer Harry Doyle in the fine baseball movie Major League.

4) As recently as 1999, Vice-President Mike Pence was a radio talkshow host in Indiana. The guy’s head has to be spinning; his every move now is fodder for late-night comedians.

You have any idea how hard it is to just sit there with no emotion or no motion like he did in the Oval Office Tuesday? Someone on the Interweb compared him to the dead guy in Weekend at Bernie’s, and it didn’t seem like that big a stretch to agree with him.

3) Tampa Bay Rays’ plans for a new ballpark in Ybor City officially died this week when owner Stu Sternberg had a press conference at the Winter Meetings. Sounds like the Rays might be locked into the Trop now, until 2027- they could easily wind up in Montreal eventually.

2) The Heisman Trophy that Tim Brown won in 1987 sold for $435,763 at a public auction recently. Lot of money for a trophy.

1) Pretty cool that the Blue Jays will be paying Troy Tulowitzki $18.4M a year for the next two years, while he probably plays 2B for the A’s, who will be paying him the big league minimum. Now if he can only stay healthy…….

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3
December 11, 2018
By Bruce Marshall

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26

Matchup Skinny Edge

BOSTON COLLEGE vs. BOISE STATE (First Responder Dallas Bowl)...BC on 16-6 uptick vs. spread. Addazio 8-3 as dog since last season, Eagles 11-2-1 last 14 as dog away from Chestnut Hill. Boise 3-1 last four bowls but 3-3 last six. Broncos 13-6-1 last 19 vs. points away from home.
Slight to Boston College, based on team trends.

MINNESOTA vs. GEORGIA TECH (Quick Lane Bowl)...Gophers 2-6-1 vs. spread away from home (2-5-1 last eight as road dog) under P.J. Fleck. Paul Johnson 3-1 SU and vs. line in last four bowls.
Slight to Georgia Tech, based on team trends.

TCU vs. CALIFORNIA (Cheez-it Phoenix Bowl)...TCU endured a 7-game spread losing streak this season before recovering to win and cover last two. Frogs 2-7 vs. points last nine bowls. Cal was on a 5-game spread win streak before losing finale vs. Stanford, and is 6-1 vs. points last 7 away from Berkeley. Bears “under” 11-3 last 14 dating to late 2017.
Cal and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27

Matchup Skinny Edge

DUKE vs. TEMPLE (Independence Bowl)...Duke 3-6 vs. spread last nine this season in rare spread slump under Cutcliffe. Blue Devils, however, have covered last four bowls, and Cutcliffe 4-0 as dog this season. Duke 24-11-1 as dog since 2013. Owls 8-4 vs. number this season but 1-2 SU and vs, line last three years in bowls.
Duke, based on extended trends.

MIAMI-FLA. at WISCONSIN (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...Rematch of LY’s Orange Bowl won by Wiscy 34-24! Miami rallied at end of season with pair of wins and covers but had dropped five previous vs. spread. Richt on 5-11 spread skid. Canes 1-4 SU and vs. line last five years in bowls (1-1 with Richt). Badgers however a miserable 3-9 vs. spread this season and just 1-2 as dog after Chryst was 6-2 as dog previous three years. Badgers have won and covered last four bowls.
Slight to Wisconsin, based on extended trends.

VANDERBILT vs. BAYLOR (Texas Bowl)...Derek Mason 8-4 vs. spread this season, and enters on 5-game spread win streak. Vandy 5-1 last six vs. line away from home. Dores have also covered last six vs. BCS-level non-SEC foes. Matt Rhule 4-3 as dog this season but just 8-8 in role since arriving at Baylor LY.
Vanderbilt, based on team trends.


FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28

Matchup Skinny Edge

AUBURN vs. PURDUE (Music City Bowl)...Malzahn 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls last four seasons, also 10-19-2 overall vs. spread since mid 2016. Brohm has won bowls the past three tries and covered his last two bowls at WKU and Purdue. Boilermakers 3-0 as dog TY, 8-2 in role for Brohm since last season.
Purdue, based on team trends.

SYRACUSE vs. WEST VIRGINIA (Camping World Bowl)...Holgorsen 0-5 SU and vs. line last five bowls. Cuse 8-3-1 vs. spread this season, also 9-3 vs. spread last 12 away from Carrier Dome. Orange also 9-3 as dog sine last season, though not sure where this number goes post-Grier.
Syracuse, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE vs. WASHINGTON STATE (Alamo Bowl)...ISU slumped late in season with four straight spread Ls to close campaign though Cyclones were 3-1 SU in those games. ISU was 22-8-1 vs. line in 31 previous games dating to early 2016. Matt Campbell 15-8-1 as dog since taking over at Ames in 2016. Leach was 3-0 vs. spread laying points away from home this season, but Cougs just 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls for Leach. Wazzu 8-11 vs. spread last 19 against non-Pac 12 foes. Note Pac-12 1-8 SU in bowls LY.
Iowa State, based on team trends.


SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29

Matchup Skinny Edge

ARKANSAS STATE vs. NEVADA (Arizona Bowl)...Red Wolves 1-3 SU and vs. line last four bowls, though they did cover last four this season. Still, only 4-5 vs. spread last nine away from Jonesboro. Wolf Pack dropped last two vs. line this season after 4-game cover streak. Nevada no covers last five vs. non-MW BCS foes.
Slight to Arkansas State, based on team trends.

FLORIDA vs. MICHIGAN (Peach Bowl)...Rematch of opener last season won by Harbaugh, 33-17. That was pre-Dan Mullen at Florida; Gators were 8-4 vs. spread in Mullen debut, Michigan 1-4 vs. spread away from Ann Arbor this season, and 2-8 against spread last 10 away from home. Also just 2-6 last 8 as chalk away from Ann Arbor.
Florida, based on team trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA vs. VIRGINIA (Belk Bowl)...Cavs only 1-3 vs. spread last four in 2018 but overall were 8-4 vs. number this season. Wahoos also 4-1 as dog in 2018. Mendenhall, however, 0-4 SU and vs. line last four bowls. SC 4-1 vs. line away from Williams-Brice this season. Muschamp has won and covered bowls the past two seasons and Gamecocks 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 vs. spread in bowls since 2011.
South Carolina, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA vs. ALABAMA (CFP Orange Bowl)...OU just 2-4 SU and vs. spread last six bowls but did beat Saban in 2013 Sugar Bowl. Lincoln Riley 2-0 as dog (0-0 this season). Saban just 3-5 vs. spread in bowl/playoff games since 2013. Tide just 5-6 vs. line last 11 away from Tuscaloosa.
Slight to Oklahoma, based on team trends.

NOTRE DAME vs. CLEMSON (CFP Cotton Bowl)...Dabo 7-1 vs. line last eight bowl/playoff games. Clemson on 10-3 spread uptick since late last season. Tigers also 7-2 vs. points last nine away from Death Valley. Brian Kelly just 2-2 as dog since 2016 (0-0 TY) and Irish 2-4 vs. line last six bowls (both covers vs. LSU).
Clemson, based on team trends.


MONDAY, DECEMBER 31

Matchup Skinny Edge

VIRGINIA TECH vs. CINCINNATI (Military Bowl)...Hokies were on a 6-game spread skid this season before winning and covering last two to salvage bowl streak (now 26 straight). VPI only 3-6 as dog since last season. Bearcats only covered 2 of last 6 this campaign after starting 5-1 vs. line. Cincy no wins or covers last three in bowls (though not since 2015).
Slight to Virginia Tech, based on extended trends.

PITTSBURGH vs. STANFORD (Sun Bowl)...Pitt had a 6-game cover streak prior to last two games of season. Panthers 5-3 as dog this season, and Narduzzi 11-6 last 17 getting points. Pitt however 0-3 SU and vs. line last three bowls. Stanford 3-1 SU, 3-0-1 vs. spread last four bowls, closed season on 4-1-1 spread uptick. Tree 6-1-1 vs. number last 8 away from Farm, and one of only two Pac-12 teams to cover spread in bowls last year.
Stanford, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE vs. OREGON (Redbox Santa Clara Bowl)...MSU only 4-8 vs. line this season and Dantonio 2-3 as dog after 7-4 mark as short entering 2018. Spartans just 6-9 vs. number last 15 away from East Lansing, though Dantonio 5-1 SU and vs. spread last six bowls. Ducks only 4-7-1 vs. spread this season and are 0-3 SU and vs. line last three bowls. Webfoots 2-8-2 last 12 vs. line against non-Pac 12 foes.
Michigan State, based on team trends.

MISSOURI vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (Liberty Bowl)...Mizzou just 2-5 vs. spread last seven away from Columbia (though did cover last two away TY). Tigers 3-5 vs. line against non-SEC BS-level foes since last season. Gundy was 4-0 as dog this season, 10-3 in role since 2015, and has won and covered 3 of last 4 bowls.
Oklahoma State, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN vs. UTAH (Holiday Bowl)...Underdog side was 11-1-1 in NU games this season with Cats 5-1-1 as short. Pat Fitz has won SU last two bowls but just 1-2 last 3. Kyle Whittingham 10-1 SU in bowls, 8-3 vs. line in those, and 11-6 vs. spread last 17 away from Salt Lake City.
Slight to Utah, based on bowl trends.

NC STATE vs. TEXAS A&M (Gator Bowl)...Pack has won and covered last two and 3 of last 4 bowl games. Pack 4-1 vs. spread last five vs. non-ACC. Jimbo 8-4 vs. line TY but just 2-3 vs. points away from home, and only 1-3 last 4 bowls while at FSU.
Slight to NC State, based on team trends.


TUESDAY, JANUARY 1

Matchup Skinny Edge

IOWA vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Outback Bowl)...Iowa 9-5 vs. line since late 2017, but Hawks 0-3 as dog in 2018. Ferentz 2-3 vs. spread last five bowls but has covered last four against non-Big Ten foes. Note Hawkeyes on 12-5 “over” run. MSU 16-9 vs. line since last season, 8-4 TY for Moorhead.
Slight to Miss State, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY vs. PENN STATE (Citrus Bowl)...UK winless SU last four bowls but did cover in Music City vs. NU last year. Cats 4-1 as dog TY, Stoops 13-7 getting points since 2016. Penn State no covers last three away TY but James Franklin 3-1 vs. line in bowls for Nittany Lions, 5-2 vs. spread in bowls with Vandy years.
Slight to Kentucky, based on recent trends.

LSU vs. UCF (Fiesta Bowl)...Orgeron 2-5 as chalk this season, and LSU just 2-5 vs. spread last seven bowls (1-1 with Orgeron). UCF 4-2 vs. spread last six bowls, 10–3 vs. line since late last season, 5-1 last six vs. points away from home.
UCF, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON vs. OHIO STATE (Rose Bowl)...Huskies only 4-9 vs. line this season, 5-11 last 16 on board. Petersen 1-3 as dog since 2016. U-Dub 2-7 vs. line last 9 against non-Pac 12. Huskies 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls for Petersen. Urban 4-2 SU and vs. line in bowls with Buckeyes, 10-3 SU and vs. line in bowls back to Utah days in 2003.
Ohio State, based on team trends.

TEXAS vs. GEORGIA (Sugar Bowl)...Tom Herman teams 12-2 as dog since 2015 with Houston. Herman 2-0 SU and vs. line in bowls. Georgia has covered last five playoff/bowl games, Kirby Smart 2-0 vs. line in those. Bulldogs on 13-5 spread uptick since late 2017.
Slight to Texas, based on Tom Herman dog trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Early Bowl Tips
December 13, 2018
By Joe Williams

**Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette**

Cure Bowl History

-- The Tulane Green Wave (6-6 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) of American Athletic Conference meet the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (7-6 straight up, 9-4 against the spread) of the Sun Belt Conference at the Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida for the AutoNation Cure Bowl.

-- The Green Wave are bowling for the first time since 2013 when they lost to these same Ragin' Cajuns in the New Orleans Bowl by a 24-21 count. Tulane hasn't won in the postseason since 2002 out in the Hawai'i Bowl, pushing past the hometown team on Christmas Day by a 36-28 count. All time the Green Wave have posted a 4-8 record in 12 bowl appearances. This will be their first appearance in the Cure Bowl.

-- The Ragin' Cajuns will be making their sixth-ever bowl appearance, and their first-ever outside of the city of New Orleans. They posted a 4-1 record in five showings in the New Orleans Bowl, winning their first four in the Big Easy before suffering a 28-21 setback against Southern Mississippi in 2016, their most recent appearance in the postseason.

-- Tulane stumbled out of the chute with a 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS record, including losses to Power 5 teams at home against Wake Forest on Aug. 30, 23-17, and on the road against Ohio State on Sept. 22, 49-6. However, in perhaps their most impressive victory of the season, the Green Wave took it to fellow bowl team Memphis, 40-24, winning outright as 14 1/2-point underdogs at home. Unfortunately they were unable to carry over the momentum, losing two in a row to slide to 2-5 SU/3-4 ATS. That's when Tulane kicked it into high gear, winning a pair of road games at Tulsa and South Florida before taking down East Carolina at home to get back to .500. Bowl eligibility wasn't a certainty after getting throttled at Houston 48-17 on Nov. 15, and they held off a poor Navy team 29-28 to just inch over the finish line and end up 6-6. The Green Wave enter bowl season on an 0-3 ATS slide.

-- Tulane posted very marginal numbers on offense this season except for in the run game. They were 30th in the country with 208.7 yards per game, as Darius Bradwell (165-982-9) and Corey Dauphine (116-754-7) are an impressive one-two punch. They were just 103rd in passing, posting a dismal 186.2 yards per game, and 25.7 points per game (PPG) to rank 93rd. Defensively the Green Wave had trouble stopping the pass, ranking just 115th with 265.2 yards per contest. They were halfway decent agaisnt the run, giving up just 153.9 yards per game to check in 50th in the country.

-- ULL checked in 39th in the country with 437.2 yards per game, and they were potent in the run game with 229.2 yards per game to finish 19th in the land. Trey Ragas managed 1,141 rushing yards (5.8 yards per carry) with eight scores, and Elijah Mitchell scored 12 times on the ground, too. WR Ja'Marcus Bradley (38-557-10) is the threat in the pass game. They also posted 32.5 PPG to rank 39th in the nation. The Cajuns were defensively challenged, ranking 96th in the nation with 432.3 yards per game, and they were hammered for 210.0 per game to rank 107th in rush defense. They also gave up 33.7 PPG to finish 105th overall.

-- The Green Wave are slight favorites in this one. As a favorite of 9 1/2 or less, they went 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS this season. ULL was a single-digit 'dog on three occasions, going 2-1 SU/ATS.

-- The Green Wave enter 2-5 ATS over the past seven games, and they're 1-4 ATS in the past five following a straight-up victory. They're also 1-4 ATS in their past five games on a fieldturf surface.

-- The Ragin' Cajuns are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games overall, and they're 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site games and 4-1 ATS in their five bowl games all-time. They're also 4-0 ATS in the past four games after a straight-up loss while going 4-1 ATS in the past five on fieldturf.

-- The under has cashed in five of the past six games overall for Tulane, while going 5-1 in their past six outside of the conference. The under is also 4-1 in the past five against teams with a winning overall mark.

-- The over is 11-1 in the past 12 non-conference tilts for ULL. However, the under is 4-1 in their past five overall, and 7-1 in the past eight appearances in the month of December.

-- In this series, the underdog has connected in five straight meetings, and ULL is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series.

-- Kickoff is slated for 1:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS Sports Network.

************************************************** ***************

**Utah State vs. North Texas**

New Mexico Bowl History

-- In the Gildan New Mexico Bowl at Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque, N.M. it will be the Utah State Aggies (10-2 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) of the Mountain West Conference facing off against the Conference USA representative North Texas Mean Green (9-3 straight up, 4-8 against the spread).

-- The Mean Green fired out to a 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS record, including a 27-point thumping of Power 5 conference member Arkansas back in Sept. 15 on the road. QB Mason Fine and the offense rolled up 44 or more points in each of the first four games and they were sailing along until Sept. 29 when Louisiana Tech upset them at home by a 29-27 score. They rebounded with a pair of conference wins at UTEP and against Southern Miss, but they lost a coin-flip game at UAB by a 29-21 margin to take a second conference loss. A second straight trip to the C-USA title game was still in reach, but a 24-21 loss as 14 1/2-point favorites at Old Dominion put the final nail in their coffin. They were able to finish up strong with a revenge-game win over FAU, 41-38 on Nov. 15, and 24-21 at UTSA to close out the season. They didn't exactly finish up strong, going 0-5 ATS in their final five outings, and 1-7 ATS in the last eight.

-- As far as Utah State, they were looking like a legit Group of 5 representative. They opened the season with a 38-31 loss at Michigan State, easily covering a 23 1/2-point spread. In fact, they covered their first six games until a non-cover at Wyoming on Oct. 20. They Aggies didn't lose again until Nov. 24 in Boise State, failing in their bid for a chance to go to the Mountain West Conference championship game and a more prestigious bowl. They also ended up 3-3 ATS in the final six outings after their perfect 6-0 ATS start.

-- When UNT has the ball they're be very up-tempo and fun to watch. They were 15th in the country in total yards (472.8 yards per game), 11th in passing yardage per game (316.2 YPG) and 21st in scoring (36.4 PPG). Defensively they were strong against the run, allowing just 113.4 YPG to finish 15th, and they gave up just 21.8 PPG to finish 31st. If Utah State is going to exploit them, it will be on the pass. UNT was 92nd in the nation against the pass, allowing 246.1 yards per game.

-- Fine threw for 3,734 yards, 27 TDs and five INTs, and his favorite target is WR Rico Bussey Jr. (68-1,017-12). WR Jalen Guyton (50-702-5) is also a threat in the pass game, while it's all about RBs Deandre Torrey (161-942-14) and Loren Easly (74-386-4) in the run game.

-- For USU, they're 11th in the land in total yards (493.8 YPG), 18th in passing yards (288.8 YPC) and third overall in the nation with 47.2 PPG. Defensively, the Aggies were gashed for 240.1 yards per game, just 84th in the nation. QB Jordan Love completed 65.8 percent of his attempts, throwing for 3,208 yards, 28 TDs and five INTs. Mason vs. Love will be one of the better bowl game matchups we'll see all season. RB Darwin Thompson (132-951-14) is the stud, with Gerold Bright (125-785-8) as the strong change-of-pace guy.

-- For the Aggies, they'll be playing for interim coach Frank Maile, as Matt Wells took the job at Texas Tech. They have lost their past two bowl appearances, and they're 4-8 overall in 12 all-time bowl games. They won their only previous appearance in the New Mexico Bowl, pushing aside UTEP 21-6 in Wells' second season in Logan.

-- The Mean Green will be making their third straight bowl appearance in three years under the tutelage of Seth Littrell, and they're hoping the third time is a charm. They lost in the New Orleans Bowl to Troy last season, and to Army in the Heart of Dallas Bowl in 2016. Overall they're just 2-7 in nine previous trips, and this will be their first-ever appearance in the New Mexico Bowl.

-- Utah State is 4-0 ATS in the past four non-conference games, and 9-3 ATS in the past 12 games overall. However, they're 4-15 ATS in the past 19 against winning teams.

-- North Texas is 10-3 ATS in their past 13 non-conference battles, but they're 0-4 ATS in the past four against winning teams, 2-5 ATS in the past seven games in December and 0-5 ATS in the past five overall.

-- The 'under' has cashed in six straight bowl games for Utah State, but the over is 23-9 in their past 32 overall. The over is 4-0 in the past four non-conference games and 4-1 in their past five against winning sides.

-- The 'under' is 4-0 in UNT's past four outside of the conference, 12-3-1 in the past 16 overall and 5-2 in their past seven on a grass surface.

-- Kickoff is slated for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

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**Arizona State vs. Fresno State**

Las Vegas Bowl History

-- In the Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas it will be the Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) taking on the Mountain West Conference champion Fresno State Bulldogs (11-2 straight up, 9-4 against the spread).

-- The season started with a lot of promise for AZ State and first-year coach Herm Edwards, as they spanked UTSA and upset a then-ranked Michigan State team 16-13 on Sept. 8 to open 2-0 SU/ATS. However, a two-game losing skid at San Diego State and Washington splashed cold water on the start, and the Sun Devils found themselves 3-4 SU/4-3 ATS through seven games heading into a late-October battle at USC. They won that one 38-35 in exciting fashion behind stud WR N'Keal Harry, who will be skipping this one to get ready for his pro career and the NFL Draft. Sparky also edged rival Arizona 41-40 on Nov. 24 in Tucson for a seventh win.

-- Fresno State fell 21-14 at Minnesota on Sept. 8, and it appeared maybe it might be a so-so season. However, a 38-14 thumping of UCLA on the road renewed hope, and they punished Toledo 49-27 to wrap up September at 3-1 SU/ATS. They wouldn't lose again until Nov. 9 on a Friday night in Boise State, 24-17. However, they would avenge that loss on the Smurf Turf on Dec. 1 in the MWC Championship Game to punch their ticket to Vegas.

-- Arizona State ranked 44th in total yards (427.2 yards per game), and they ranked 56th in passing yards (241.3 YPG). However, those stats are out with the window with Harry in street clothes. Defensively, AZ State ranked 71st in total yards (402.8 YPG), 82nd in passing yards allowed (238.7 YPG) and 65th against the run (164.2 YPG). QB Manny Wilkins is still playing, though, and he passed for 2,896 yards, 19 TD and four INT while running for 416 yards and eight more scores. RB Eno Benjamin (277-1,524-15) will also be leaned upon, adding to his impressive stat line.

-- Fresno State finished 50th in total yards (421.0 YPG), while posting 274.2 YPG to rank 25th in the country. They were also 26th in the land (34.9 PPG). Defensively, the Bulldogs allowed just 323.8 yards per game to rank 17th in the land, and they were third in points allowed with just 13.7 PPG.

-- QB Marcus McMaryion was a dual-threat option who didn't make many miscues. He passed for 3,453 yards, 25 TD and three INT while rushing for seven touchdowns. RBs Ronnie Rivers (108-531-8) and Jordan Mims (113-436-6) are solid on the ground, while WR KeeSean Johnson (93-1,307-8) and TE Jared Rice (51-624-3) are the top options in the pass game.

-- Fresno State won last season in the Hawai'i Bowl, snapping a six-game bowl skid. That includes their only other trip to the Las Vegas Bowl, a 45-20 pounding inflicted by USC. The Bulldogs are 2-1 all-time against Pac-12 members at the time. They also played Colorado in the Aloha Bowl in 1993, but they were in the Big 12 then.

-- Arizona State has a long bowl history, going 14-15-1, including two trips to the Salad Bowl. They appeared in the Las Vegas Bowl once before, getting smacked around by Boise State 56-24 back on Dec. 22, 2011. Arizona State is 2-6 across their past eight postseason appearances.

-- The Sun Devils are 2-7 ATS in their past nine bowl games and just 1-6 ATS in their past seven battles against Mountain West foes. They are an impressive 10-4 ATS in the past 14 against teams with a winning overall record.

-- The Bulldogs are an amazing 26-7-1 ATS in the past 34 overall and 16-5 ATS in the past 21 against teams with a winning record. They're also 8-2 ATS in the past 10 non-conference battles. However, Fresno is 1-6 ATS in the past seven bowl games and 4-9 ATS in the past 13 against Pac-12 foes.

-- The 'over' has cashed in eight of the past 10 neutral-site games for Arizona State, and 4-1 in the past five non-conference games. They over is also 6-1 in their past seven bowl appearances.

-- The 'under' is 22-8 in the past 30 overall for Fresno State, but the over is 5-2-1 in their past eight bowl appearances. The over is also 16-4-1 in their past 21 against the Pac-12 and 4-1 in the past five outside of the conference.

-- Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.