Cnotes 2018 College Football Thru The Bowl Games News- Trends-Stats-Best Bets !

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Wednesday’s games

Ohio won its last three games, scoring 49-52-59 points; Bobcats are 2-2 on road, are 5-3 in last eight games as road favorites, 1-1 this year. Ohio ran ball for 1,159 yards in last three games. Miami OH lost its last two games, allowing 31-51 points; Red Hawks covered five of their last six games. Under Martin, Miami is 5-4-1 as home underdogs, 1-0 this year- they’re 0-5 when they allow more than 23 points. Over is 5-3 in Ohio games this year; five of last six Miami games also went over.

Northern Illinois won its last five games; under Carey, Huskies are 11-15 as home favorites, 0-2 this year. NIU ran ball for 227+ yards in each of its last four wins. Toledo won its last two games, scoring 51-45 points; Rockets scored 45+ points in all five of their wins- they were held to 27 or less in their four losses. Toledo is 18-9 in its last 27 games as road underdogs, 1-1 this year. Toledo allowed 300+ PY in each of its last three games. Three of last four Toledo games, six of last eight NIU games stayed under the total.

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WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 7
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

OHIO at M-OH 07:00 PM
OHIO -4.5
U 60.5

TOL at NIU 08:00 PM
NIU -3.5
O 55.5

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Miami (Ohio) snaps five-game skid against Ohio, wins 30-28
November 7, 2018
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OXFORD, Ohio (AP) Alonzo Smith ran for a pair of first-half touchdowns, and a safety in the second half helped Miami (Ohio) hold on for a 30-28 victory over Ohio on Wednesday night to keep its bowl eligibility alive.

Miami (4-6, 4-2 Mid-American Conference) beat Ohio (6-4, 4-2) for the first time since 2012 to snap a five-game skid in the Battle of the Bricks.

Smith finished with 94 yards on 20 carries. Gus Ragland was 20-of-32 passing for 199 yards with a touchdown for the RedHawks. Kenny Young had a 16-yard scoring run.

A.J. Ouellette had 168 yards rushing on 15 carries to lead Ohio. Nathan Rourke threw for 163 yards and two touchdowns.

Rourke connected with Papi White on a nine-yard scoring throw, and Dylan Conner returned a blocked punt 28 yards for a touchdown to cut Ohio's 28-7 halftime deficit to 28-21 with 9:14 remaining.

Kyle Kramer's 47-yard punt with 4:40 to play pinned Ohio at the 1-yard line. Doug Costin sacked Rourke in the end zone three plays later to make it 30-21. Rourke then led a seven-play, 80-yard drive capped by an 18-yard TD pass to Andrew Meyer with 2:24 to play.

The Bobcats got the ball back with 30 seconds remaining and Rourke drove the Bobcats to their 45-yard line, but his Hail Mary attempt went out of bounds to end it.


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NO. ILLINOIS 38,TOLEDO 15

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Thursday’s 6-pack

— Sam Darnold (foot) is out for this week’s game with Buffalo.

— If Le’Veon Bell is going to play for Pittsburgh this year, he has to report by 4pm on Nov. 13.

— Ohio State 64, Cincinnati 56— Buckeyes win an ugly game.

— Kansas Jayhawks fired football coach David Beaty; he’ll finish this season.

— Astros’ P Lance McCullers had Tommy John surgery, will miss all of 2019.

— Cubs’ manager Joe Maddon will enter 2019 as a lame duck; he didn’t get his contract extension. Guy won the World Series two years ago.

Quote of the Day
“I saw some kid on Duke last night who is pretty impressive. I probably can’t say anything more … I thought LeBron, I thought that was a one shot deal, but apparently the next guy’s coming. Before I get fined, I’m going to change the subject.”
Steve Kerr, talking about Duke’s Zion Williamson

Thursday’s quiz
Where did Steve Kerr play his college basketball?
(Hint: He played in a Final Four)

Wednesday’s quiz
Craig Morton started in Super Bowls for Dallas and the Denver Broncos.

Tuesday’s quiz
Craig Morton played QB for the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl V, the first time they played in a Super Bowl.

***********************

Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) So I’m voting Tuesday and this guy voting next to me had his daughter with him- she is maybe 6, 7 years old. As he is voting, the little girl says “Thats not who mommy voted for” and the guy says “Daddy isn’t going to vote for everyone Mommy voted for” and then the little girl and dad start arguing, with the little girl wanting mommy and daddy to agree on everything.

Quality entertainment. And for free.

12) Sunday was a rough day for Nevada sports books; every NFL team that the public supported covered the spread. A guy who is a 25-year veteran of working in Las Vegas said it was one of the 10 worst days Nevada sports books have ever had in sports wagering.

11) Times have changed; the Cowboys willingly wore blue jerseys at home Monday night. There was a time when Dallas went on the road, opposing teams would wear white at home, to force the Cowboys to wear the blue jerseys that they didn’t seem to like wearing.

10) New Mets’ GM Brodie Van Wagenen is making $10M for four years. He was the agent for the Mets’ two best players, Jacob deGrom and Yoenis Cespedes. He was also Tim Tebow’s agent; Tebow is expected to start next season at AAA Syracuse.

9) Lot of NBA teams have cameras over the baskets, which provide great replays of action around the rim; the funny thing is that they then put advertising on top of the backboards, so you see it when those replays are shown. Wonder how much they charge for that?

8) The NBA is more fun to watch now than it has been in a while; lot more passing, solid shooting. The success Golden State is having has influenced the game in a positive way.

7) Toronto Argonauts fired coach Marc Trestman after a 4-14 season, but his Argos won the Grey Cup LAST YEAR.

Trestman won two Grey Cups coaching Montreal from 2008-12, then went 13-19 in two years coaching the Chicago Bears. He later was an OC for the Baltimore Ravens, but was fired during the 2016 season. Mr Trestman could write a very interesting book.

6) Not that I’m bitter or anything, but I see DeAndre Ayton and Allonzo Trier playing major minutes in NBA games this fall, but when I picked Arizona in their first round NCAA game last March, they lost by 21 to a freakin’ MAC team. No bueno!!!! LOLOL

5) Miami, Florida, Florida State all went 0-2 the last two weekends.

That is the FIRST time that has EVER happened.

4) San Francisco Giants hired GM Farhan Zaidi as their new GM Tuesday.

For the past four years, Zaidi was GM of the rival Dodgers; before that, he was the assistant GM to Billy Beane with the A’s.

3) Jamal Murray scored 48 points for Denver Monday night; he took a shot late in the game, trying to get to 50, and the Celtics get all offended, like Murray isn’t supposed to try and put the ball in the basket. Thats what he gets paid for.

You don’t want him to score 50? Guard his bleepin’ ass, don’t let him get to 40!!! Don’t run your mouth after the game, move your feet during the game.

2) Guy at the Golden Nugget in Atlantic City put $6 down on a 12-team parlay this weekend and he hit it, with Titans (+5) clinching his $9,600 payoff. Well done!!!

1) Chicago Blackhawks fired coach Joel Quenneville, who won three Stanley Cups in Chicago, the last one in 2015. He’s the second-winningest coach in NHL history with an all-time record of 890-532-214. Sounds like a guy who won’t be unemployed too long.

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College Football Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/07/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
11/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
11/03/2018 25-32-3 43.86% -51.00
11/02/2018 4-2-0 66.66% +9.00
11/01/2018 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00

Totals............35-40-3........46.66%.....-45.00


Best Bets:

Best Bets For November

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

11/07/2018..............1 - 1..................-0.50....................1 - 1.................-0.50...............-1.00
11/06/2018..............1 - 0..................+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00
11/03/2018.............10 - 13...............-21.50...................3 - 4................-7.00...............-28.50
11/02/2018..............2 - 1..................+4.50...................2 - 1................+4.50..............+9.00
11/01/2018..............2 - 1..................+4.50...................0 - 3................-16.50..............-12.00

Totals....................16 - 16.................-8.00....................7 - 9................-14.50..............-22.50

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Tech Trends - Week 11
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 8

WAKE FOREST at NC STATE...Deacs were 10-3-1 as dog entering 2018 (they’re 1-5 in role TY). Home team has covered last three and 10 of last 11 in series.
N.C. State, based on series trends.



Friday, Nov. 9

LOUISVILLE at SYRACUSE...‘Ville 1-8 vs. line TY, 6-20 vs. spread since early 2016. But Cards have won and covered big last four vs. ‘Cuse. Babers 2-1-1 as Carrier Dome chalk TY.
Syracuse, based on team trends.


FRESNO STATE at BOISE STATE....Tedford on 18-3-2 spread surge since arriving at FSU LY. Included are pair of covers LY vs. Boise. Broncos just 3-11 last 14 as MW home chalk.
Fresno State, based on team trends.



Saturday, Nov. 10

TEMPLE at HOUSTON...Owls had covered last 6 prior to UCF and are 22-6 vs. line last 28 AAC games. Temple 15-5 last 20 as dog (2-1 TY). Cougs just 10-12 vs. spread for Applewhite since late 2016.
Temple, based on team trends.


MICHIGAN at RUTGERS... Rutgers got cover LY after Harbaugh beat Ash badly previous two years by 49-16 & 78-0. Harbaugh has covered 5 of last 6 TY but only 1-2 vs. spread away and just 2-6 vs. line last 8 away from Big House. Rut surprising 4-2 vs. points last six as Big Ten host.
Slight to Michigan, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA TECH at PITTSBURGH...Narduzzi has now covered 4 in a row after the Virginia win (all as a dog), taking 3 of those SU. Narduzzi 17-10 as dog since arriving in 2015. Disappointing VPI no covers last 4 or 5 of last 6. And Panthers have covered last three meetings.
Pitt, based on team trends.


CLEMSON at BOSTON COLLEGE...Dabo surging with wins and covers last four TY. BC, however, on 16-2 spread run in reg season, and 7-1 last 8 as dog. Dabo has run up scores on Addazio past two years.
Slight to Clemson, based on team trends.


OLE MISS at TEXAS A&M...Ole Miss has covered 5 of last 6 meetings (Freeze was 5-0 vs. line against Sumlin).
Slight to Ole Miss, based on series trends.


KENTUCKY at TENNESSEE...UKy got rare win in series LY but it was not easy, only 2 Ws vs. Vols since a win in 1984 with Jerry Claiborne. Stoops 0-3 as chalk TY, however, which drops him to 0-10 last 10 as favorite. Vols have covered 3 of last 4 for Pruitt.
Tennessee, based on extended series and team trends.


BYU at UMASS...Mass won in Provo LY. Sitake just 3-8 last 11 as chalk. Mass however on 3-6 spread slide TY.
Slight to UMass, based on team trends.


LIBERTY at VIRGINIA... Last 4 games of reg season, Mendenhall now 2-7 vs. line for Hoos after Pitt loss. Cavs had been 7-1 vs. line prior TY to Panther loss.
Slight to Virginia, based on recent trends.


TROY at GEORGIA SOUTHERN...Troy 6-1-1 vs. line last 8 TY, and 7-2 vs. spread last nine away from home. Though Southern has covered last four meetings. Eagles however 7-2 vs. line themselves TY.
Slight to Troy, based on team trends.


BAYLOR at IOWA STATE...Matt Campbell 6-2 vs. line TY, 22-8-1 last 31 on board since early 2016 for ISU. Campbell has covered last two vs. Baylor, which is 0-3-1 vs. line last four in series.
Iowa State, based on team and series trends.


NAVY at UCF...UCF now 6-2 vs. line TY, 5-0 vs. spread in Orlando vs. FBS-level foes TY. Mids only 2-7 vs. line TY.
UCF, based on recent trends.


TCU at WEST VIRGINIA...Frogs no covers last six TY, 2-10 vs. line since late 2017. WV has covered 4 of last 5 meetings.
WVU, based on recent and series trends.


MIAMI-FLORIDA at GEORGIA TECH...Canes 8-1 SU last nine vs. Paul Johnson, though Richt only 3-10 vs. spread since mid 2017. Also 1-6 vs. points last seven away from Hard Rock. Throw out games vs. Clemson and GT is 13-4-1 as dog since 2014.
Slight to Georgia Tech, based on recent trends.


KANSAS at KANSAS STATE...Bill Snyder has long owned this series but no covers last two years. Cats had won and covered previous 7 in Snyder II at K-State. Cats have covered last 3 at home TY though just 3-10 last 13 as home chalk.
K-State, based on extended series trends.


AKRON at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Zips no covers last four as MAC visitor, Bowden just 5-9-1 last 15 on board. EMU on 23-8-1 spread run since early 2016, though only 4-4 last 8 as Ypsilanti chalk.
Eastern Michigan, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at INDIANA...Terps 1-5 vs. line last six as Big Ten visitor. If Hoosiers chalk note 4-1 mark last five at home.
Slight to Indiana, based on team trends.


SMU at UCONN...UConn 1-7-1 vs. line TY, 0-4 vs. line at Pratt & Whitney. Edsall 2-8 vs. line at home since LY.
SMU, based on team trends.


NORTH CAROLINA at DUKE...Fedora actually 8-4 vs. line since late 2017 , 7-3 last ten as dog. Cutcliffe no covers last three at Durham TY.
UNC, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at OKLAHOMA...Sooners have won and covered last three meetings. Lincoln Riley has also covered his last five Big 12 home games. OSU just 5-10-1 vs. points last 16 Big 12 games.
Oklahoma, based on team and series trends.


NORTHWESTERN at IOWA...Dog team 8-0-1 in Cat games TY! NU 4-0-1 as dog TY. Pat Fitz 11-3-1 as dog since 2016 and 9-1 last 10 as visiting dog. Ferentz however is 7-1 vs. line TY.
Northwestern, based on team trends.


USF at CINCINNATI...Charlie Strong just 3-11 vs. line last 13 reg-season games. Cincy 6-3 vs. line TY.
Cincy, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at COASTAL CAROLINA...ASU 4-10 vs. line since late 2017, and 2-5 last 7 vs. spread away from Jonesboro.
Coastal Carolina, based on team trends.


EAST CAROLINA at TULANE...Montgomery 8-23-1 vs. line with ECU since arriving in 2016. Pirates 2-10-1 vs. spread away that span. Willie Fritz 8-2 vs. spread at home since LY.
Tulane, based on team trend.


OREGON at UTAH...Utes 7-1 last 8 as home chalk. Ducks 1-7 vs. spread last 8 away from Eugene, though they have won and covered last two years vs. Utes. Ducks 2-6 last 8 as dog.
Utah, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON STATE at COLORADO...Bottom has dropped out for Buffs, on 4-game SU losing streak (1-3 vs. line) after Arizona loss. Though home team has won and covered handily last 3 in series. CU just 3-8 vs. spread last 11 at home. Leach 4-0 vs. spread away TY, 21-10 vs. points as visitor since 2013.
Washington State, based on team trends.


CHARLOTTE at MARSHALL... Herd 1-6 vs. spread last 7 at home. Doc just 5-12 last 17 as chalk. Charlotte current 4-0 spread run.
Charlotte, based on team trends.


NORTH TEXAS at OLD DOMINION...UNT only 1-3 vs. line last four TY. But ODU on 6-12 spread skid, 2-7-1 last ten vs. line at home.
North Texas, based on team trends.


BOWLING GREEN at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...BGSU 2-6-1 vs. line TY, 9-24-1 since late 2015 vs. line. CMU however no covers last four TY and 0-3 vs. points as MAC host TY.
Slight to Central Michigan, based on team trends.


COLORADO STATE at NEVADA...Bobo on 3-13 spread skid since mid 2017. Pack 7-2 vs. points TY.
Nevada, based on team trends.


OREGON STATE at STANFORD...OSU just 6-14-1 vs. points since LY (3-6 TY). Tree has failed to cover last 2 years vs. Beavs and Shaw just 5-11 vs. points as Farm chalk since late 2015.
Slight to Oregon State, based on team trends.


MTSU at UTEP...Miners have covered 5 of last 7 TY, but Stockstill 4-1 last five as chalk.
Slight to MTSU, based on team trends.


AUBURN at GEORGIA...Underdog side has covered last three reg season meetings. Kirby Smart just 5-9 vs. line as Athens chalk since taking over Dawgs in 2016.
Slight to Auburn, based on series trends.


WISCONSIN at PENN STATE...Badgers just 2-7 vs. line TY, though Paul Chryst 6-3 as dog since 2015. Wiscy has dropped last 2 away but still 11-3 vs. line as visitor since 2016. James Franklin no covers last 4 TY.
Wisconsin, based on extended trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE at ALABAMA...Last Tide SU loss in series was Saban’s first year in 2–7 when losing 17-12 to Sly Croom’s MSU. Saban just 5-5-1 vs. spread at Tuscaloosa since LY. Bulldogs were 16-7 last 23 as dog for Dan Mullen but 0-1 in role for Moorhead. MSU 2-5 vs. line last seven as visitor.
Slight to Alabama, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO at AIR FORCE...Series totally dominated by Bob Davie, who has won outright as dog last three and covered all six vs. Force since 2012. Note Falcs just 3-14 vs. spread since 2010 in games immediately after Army or Navy.
New Mexico, based on series trends.


VANDERBILT at MISSOURI...Derek Mason now has covered last two TY though just 3-10 vs. spread in SEC games since LY. Odom has won and covered last 2 vs. Mason.
Slight to Mizzou, based on team trends.


ILLINOIS at NEBRASKA...Frost working on four straight covers TY. Lovie 2-6 last 8 vs. spread as Big Ten road dog.
Nebraska, based on team trends.


PURDUE at MINNESOTA...Fleck just 4-10-1 vs. spread in Big Ten play since arriving with Gophers LY. Brohm 14-7 vs. spread since arriving at Purdue LY.
Purdue, based on team trends.


TULSA at MEMPHIS...Road team has covered last four in series. Montgomery 11-5 as visiting dog since 2015. Though Tigers have covered last five American home games and 8-4 last 12 laying DD.
Slight to Memphis, based on team trends.


SOUTH CAROLINA at FLORIDA...Cocks 10-1 vs. points last nine away from Williams-Brice. Gators no covers L2 TY.
Slight to South Carolina, based on team trends.


CAL at USC...Bears haven’t beaten Trojans SU since epic 2003 3-OT win at Berkeley, and no wins at Coliseum since 2000. SC 10-3 vs. points last 13 meetings. But Helton on 7-17 spread skid overall and 2-7 last 9 as Coliseum chalk. Wilcox 7-2 last 8 as dog and did cover vs. SC LY.
Slight to California, based on recent trends.


TEXAS at TEXAS TECH...Road team has won and covered last four. But Texas only 3-6 last nine vs. points in reg season.
Slight to Texas, based on series trends.


LSU at ARKANSAS...Hogs had given LSU trouble before 2016, covering 4 in a row, though Orgeron has gotten Porkers last two years. Orgeron 5-1 vs. points last six on SEC road.
LSU, based on team trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at UTAH STATE...SJSU 4-1 L5 vs. line away. Utags however 7-1-1 vs. line TY and 3-0-1 at Logan.
Utah State, based on team trends.


APPALACHIAN STATE at TEXAS STATE... App 5-1 last six vs. points away from Boone. Tex State working on four straight covers, though just 5-9 vs. line last 14 at San Marcos.
App State, based on team trends.


GEORGIA STATE at ULL...Ragin’ Cajuns on 5-game spread win streak. GS 1-7 vs. line last 8 TY, and 0-4 as road dog.
ULL, based on recent trends.


WKU at FAU... Lane Kiffin just 2-7 vs. line TY but still 7-4 vs. spread as home chalk since LY. Sagging WKU 1-8 SU TY and now working on three straight spread Ls after MTSU loss.
FAU, based on team trends.


ULM at SOUTH ALABAMA...Jags 8-4 vs. spread last 12 CUSA games. ULM 3-8 last 11 vs. line. Host team has covered last two.
South Alabama, based on team trends.


RICE at LA TECH...Skip just 2-3 as chalk in 2018 but has bombed Rice the past four years, winning and covering all by 14 or more.
La Tech, based on series trends.


FIU at UTSA...Roadrunners on 3-14 spread skid. Butch Davis on 11-5 spread uptick in reg season since mid 2017.
FIU, based on team trends.


FLORIDA STATE at NOTRE DAME...Noles 3-6 vs. line for Taggart and 7-13-2 vs. points since LY. FSU only 1-5 last six as dog. But Irish only 4-8-1 last 13 vs. line reg season and no covers last seven laying DD.
Slight to Florida State, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at UAB...Blazers have covered last seven and 15-3-1 last 19 vs. line reg season. Plus 10-0-1 vs. line L11 at home.
UAB, based on team trends.


OHIO STATE at MICHIGAN STATE... Urban no covers last five TY. Dantonio 3-2 vs. line in series last five years though was crushed 48-3 LY. MSU 20-8 as dog since 2011 (1-1 TY).
Michigan State, based on team trends.


UCLA at ARIZONA STATE...Herm 3-1 vs. line at home TY, Sun Devils 14-5 vs. spread at Tempe since late 2015.
Arizona State, based on team trends.


UNLV at SAN DIEGO STATE...Road team has covered last four in series. Aztecs 0-4 as home chalk TY. Sanchez no covers last two away TY but is 2-2 in role and Rebs 23-10 as road dog since 2012.
UNLV, based on team and series trends.

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Big Ten Report - Week 11
November 7, 2018
By ASA

2018 BIG 10 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 4-5 2-4 4-5 5-4
Indiana 4-5 1-5 3-6 6-3
Iowa 6-3 3-3 6-3 6-3
Maryland 5-4 3-3 5-4 4-5
Michigan 8-1 6-0 6-3 5-4
Michigan State 6-3 4-2 4-5 4-5
Minnesota 4-5 1-5 5-4 6-3
Nebraska 2-7 1-5 3-5-1 5-4
Northwestern 5-4 5-1 4-3-2 5-4
Ohio State 8-1 5-1 3-6 4-5
Penn State 6-3 3-3 5-4 7-2
Purdue 5-4 4-2 6-3 5-4
Rutgers 1-8 0-6 4-5 3-6
Wisconsin 6-3 4-2 2-7 5-4

Friday, Nov. 10

Ohio State (-3.5) at Michigan State - (FOX, 12:00 p.m. ET)

OHIO STATE – A quick commentary on the Buckeyes. There is something off with this team. They are nowhere near as good as recent Buckeye teams despite their 8-1 record. We’ve heard the team chemistry just isn’t a strength and it is starting to show on the field. There have been a few red flags over the last month with the most glaring coming in their 49-20 loss at Purdue a few weeks ago. Last Saturday the Buckeyes were in a spot where they would normally come out and destroy a team. At home, off a bye, and off an embarrassing defeat in their previous game. Even with that this team struggled to put away a 2-win Nebraska team. OSU’s largest lead was just 12 points and that was late in the 4th quarter. They did finally get their struggling running game (averaging just 133 YPG in league play coming into the game) moving in the right direction with 229 yards on the ground. However, that may come to a halt this weekend vs the #1 rush defense in the nation at MSU. Defensively OSU has allowed 80 points and nearly 1,000 yards in the last 2 games alone. They are allowing 402 YPG in conference play this season after giving up just 300 YPG in Big Ten play last year. Following this week’s game at MSU they are at Maryland and then close out the regular season with a gigantic game at home vs Michigan.

MICHIGAN STATE – While MSU’s offense has its moments where it struggles we can’t say the same for the Spartan defense. They are very good week in and week out. They lead the nation in rush defense allowing just 77 YPG and held a very good Maryland running game to just 26 yards last week in their 24-3 road win. They held the Terps to less than 2 YPP in the win and are now giving up just 4.8 YPP on the season. The offense is still a work in progress. They came into last week’s having relied heavily on the pass while averaging only 107 YPG on the ground. With starting QB Brian Lewerke returning from an injury, the Spartans leaned more on their running game than they had all season putting up 269 yards passes for 87 yards. He also welcomed back one of MSU’s top offensive weapons as starting WR Cody White was back on the lineup for the first time since September 29th. Sparty has now won 3 of their last 4 games including wins over Purdue & Penn State. Their only loss during that 4 game stretch was a 21-7 setback vs red hot Michigan.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – OSU rolled over MSU 48-3 last year at home as a 17.5 point favorite. That was the only time in the last 7 meetings that the favorite has covered (dog is 6-1 ATS in this series). Ohio State has been favored in 24 of the 28 meetings since 1980 & they are 12-2 SU (10-4 ATS) their last 14 trips to East Lansing. The Buckeyes are also 7-2 ATS as a favorite at MSU dating back to 1980.

Maryland at Indiana (-1) – (BTN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

MARYLAND – It was definitely a rough week for Maryland leading into last week’s home tilt with MSU as their head coach DJ Durkin was reinstated after a suspension and then fired within the span of 48 hours. This team did not respond well getting trounced at home by the Spartans 24-3. We’ve mentioned it numerous times this year on these pages but if you can stop Maryland’s running game, they are in trouble. Last week was a bad match up for this offense as they were facing a Michigan State defense that leads the nation allowing just 77 YPG. They lived up to their defensive billing on Saturday holding the potent Maryland running game to 26 yards on 29 carries. The Terps put up just 100 total yards on 53 plays for less than 2 YPP. The Spartans dominated the stat sheet as they were +10 first downs, +248 yards rushing, and +13:00 minute time of possession. The passing game continued to be almost non-existent as QB Kasim Hill has thrown for less than 100 yards in 4 of the Terps last 5 games. Maryland drops to 5-4 overall and still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. This week at Indiana is huge as they close out the season with two very tough games at home vs Ohio State and at Penn State.

INDIANA – The Hoosiers had last week off after losing at Minnesota 38-31 two weeks ago. IU was dominated for much of their game in Minneapolis with the Gophers leading 31-9 entering the 4th quarter before Indiana made their mini comeback. IU was outgained by 97 yards in the game and allowed the Gophs to rush for 180 yards. They’ll need to be much better defensively this weekend at home against a Maryland team that is 3rd in the Big Ten in rushing averaging 222 YPG. The Hoosiers have only 1 Big Ten win and that came by just 7 points vs Rutgers. Four of their five Big Ten losses have come by at least a TD with three of those coming by 14 or more. They have some serious work to do to get to bowl eligible as they need to win 2 of their final 3 games vs Indiana, at Michigan, or vs Purdue. It’s been a disappointing season in Indiana after starting with a perfect 3-0 mark in the non-conference slate.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – These two have met 4 times since Maryland joined the Big Ten with each winning twice. Last year IU was favored by 6.5 at Maryland but the Terps pulled off the 42-39 upset. Despite the loss the Hoosiers were +17 first downs & +138 yards in that game. Maryland is 3-0 ATS this year coming off a SU loss & 23-14 ATS their last 37 in that spot. IU is just 7-19 ATS coming off a bye dating back to 1993.

Illinois at Nebraska (-17) - (BTN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

ILLINOIS – The Illini pulled off quite the performance last week crushing Minnesota 55-31 as 9.5-point underdogs. They gashed the Minnesota defense for a ridiculous 430 yards rushing on 12.3 yards per carry! RB Reggie Corbin led the way with 213 yards on just 13 carries. He has now topped 100 yards rushing in 4 of his last 5 games. Corbin set the stage early running for a 72-yard TD on just the second play of the game. That was just the start for Corbin who had TD runs of 77, 72, and 72 yards. If there is one thing the Illini do well it is run the ball. They now rank 2nd in the Big Ten and 23rd nationally averaging 223 YPG on the ground. Head coach Lovie Smith took over the defense after the abrupt resignation of his defensive coordinator Hardy Nickerson earlier in the week. Under Smith’s watch Illinois gave up “only” 31 points and 438 yards. While that may not seem good (it isn’t) it’s better than they have been performing on that side of the ball. A week earlier they allowed 63 points on 712 yards to a one-dimensional Maryland offense. Coming into last week Illinois had allowed at least 46 points in 4 of their 5 Big Ten games including giving up 60+ twice! Now they face a Nebraska offense that has played very well over the last month and a half.

NEBRASKA – The ever-improving Huskers took Ohio State to the wire last week in Columbus. Nebraska’s offense continued to play very well putting up 31 points on 450 total yards in the 36-31 loss. It was the 6th consecutive game the Huskers have had at least 450 yards of total offense. Nebraska led 21-16 at half but saw OSU take their biggest lead 36-24 with 4:57 to go in the game. They responded with a quick 75-yard TD drive to cut the lead to 36-31 with just under 3:00 minutes remaining. The Huskers were not able to get the ball back after that TD as the Buckeyes ran out the clock. While the offense has been playing at a high level, the defense continues to struggle. An Ohio State running game that has been very poor as of late rushed for 229 yards which was their highest number on the ground this Big Ten season. The only team they’ve held under 30 points in Big Ten play was Minnesota and the Gophers put up 28 points in that one. This loss pretty much took Nebraska out of bowl contention as they’d now have to sweep the board to finish with a 5-7 record. With games after this one vs Michigan State and at Iowa that even seems unlikely. While they may finish with the same (4) or fewer wins than last year’s team, this Nebraska unit is much better in our opinion.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – The Huskers dominated last year’s match up at Illinois 28-6. Nebraska tallied 411 total yards while holding the Illini to just 199. These teams have met 7 times since 1980 and the Huskers have been favored in all 7 games. They are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in those meetings. The Illini lone win in this series was 14-13 back in 2015. Illinois has played just 3 road games this year. They beat Rutgers as expected but their other two roadies have been blowout losses to Maryland (lost by 30) & Wisconsin (lost by 29).

Wisconsin at Penn State (-9) – (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

WISCONSIN – The Badgers struggled a bit with Rutgers last week but came away with a 31-17 win. As expected they kept the ball on the ground for the most part rushing for 317 yards while holding Rutgers to 72 on the ground. They were led as per usual by Jonathan Taylor who had 208 yards and leading the nation in rushing. Starting QB Alex Hornibrook returned after missing the Northwestern game, however his status for this weekend’s game at Penn State is in doubt. He is again in concussion protocol after getting hit late in the 1st half last week. He did not return to last week’s game and our word is they are preparing his back up Jack Coan to make his 2nd start of the season. We highly doubt Hornibrook will play this weekend. The Wisconsin defense has noticeably taken a step back from previous years due to inexperience and injuries. They allowed Rutgers to score 17 points on 333 total yards while that may not seem that bad this Scarlet Knight offense had scored just 2 TD’s in their previous 164 offensive snaps dating back to their October 6th game vs Illinois. It was also just the 2nd time since their season opener vs Texas State that Rutgers was able to put up over 300 total yards in a game. The Badgers did get two key defensive players back in the line up as starting safety D’Cota Dixon and DL Isaiah Loudermilk both returned from injuries. That should help them moving forward.

PENN STATE – Penn State ran into a buzz saw last week and to be honest we saw it coming. We had Michigan as our Top Play on Saturday and they didn’t disappoint destroying the Nittany Lions 42-7. PSU’s only points came on a TD with less than 2:00 minutes to play in the game. The Nits were held to just 186 total yards with 75 of those coming on their final drive of the game when the outcome had been long since decided. Trace McSorely completed only 5 passes the entire game and was noticeably restricted by his knee injury which he suffered a week earlier vs Iowa. Back up Tommy Stevens also got some time under center completing just 3 passes and may play a larger role this Saturday depending on the health of McSorely. The defense actually held up pretty well holding Michigan to just 14 points in the first half but they ran out of gas in the 2nd half as they were on the field for 69 plays which was 21 more plays than the Michigan defense was forced to face. This defense has been on the field A LOT and it looks like it’s starting to take a toll. Since their bye week after their home loss to OSU, the Penn State defense has been on the field for 346 plays or an average of 86.5 plays per game. They are 2-2 in those games with their wins both coming down to the wire vs Iowa (won by 6) and at Indiana (won by 5).

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – These two last met in the Big Ten Championship game following the 2106 season. The Badgers were favored by 3 in that game but blew a 28-14 halftime lead losing 38-31. Since the start of the 2005, these two have met 8 times with PSU winning & covering 6 of those games. This is the 2nd time this season Wisconsin has been a dog of more than a TD. First game was a 38-17 loss at Michigan as a 10-point dog. However, entering this season Wisconsin was 30-9-1 ATS when getting more than 7 points dating back to 1990. PSU is 0-8 ATS their last 8 home games coming off a SU loss (back to 2014).

Michigan (-39) at Rutgers – (BTN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

MICHIGAN – As we mentioned in our Penn State recap, we had a feeling that Michigan was going to dominate the Nittany Lions last week and we released the Wolverines as our Top Play of the weekend. They did just that with a 42-7 win holding a potent offense scoreless for 58 minutes before PSU tacked on a meaningless late TD. They had been waiting for that rematch ever since last year’s embarrassing 42-13 loss in Happy Valley. The defense wanted redemption for their poor performance last year and they got it in a big way holding PSU to just 186 total yards. On offense they continue to lean heavily on their running game as they had 52 rushing attempts and just 17 pass attempts last Saturday. As good as the defense has been, the Michigan offense now leads the Big Ten in scoring at 36 PPG (conference games only). It was the third consecutive week of their “revenge tour” in which they faced Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State, all game they lost a year ago. In those 3 games the Michigan defense allowed 31 total points (10 PPG) and 563 total yards (187 YPG) all versus formidable opponents. They have one leg left on that revenge tour and that comes in a few weeks at Ohio State. This week they face a Rutgers team that ranks dead last in the Big Ten in both total offense and scoring offense. Michigan is laying 39 points on the road in this one and the total is set at 49 so it’s obvious the oddsmakers don’t expect Rutgers to do much of anything offensively. The one semi-concern this week will be the Wolverines mind set. They are coming off three huge games that they labeled the revenge tour. Now playing Rutgers has to a be a huge letdown for this team. Will they potentially lose this game? No chance by covering 39 on the road in this spot might be a task.

RUTGERS – The Knights offense actually showed a bit of life in last week’s 31-17 loss at Wisconsin. While 17 points on 333 total yards might not catch anyone’s attention, it was a solid performance for this Rutgers offense. This is an offense that had scored only 6 TD’s in their 5 Big Ten games prior to their visit to Madison. They actually had a chance to score more than 17 as they missed a FG and pushed the ball into Wisconsin territory on 6 of their 11 possessions. Despite the small improvement last week, they will most likely take an offensive step back this Saturday facing a Michigan defense that has been lights out. Rutgers is dead last in the Big Ten in scoring at 12 PPG which is a full 9 PPG less than Michigan State who ranks 13th at 21 PPG (conference games). They are also last in total offense averaging only 251 YPG which is 75 yards per game less than Maryland who is 13th in the league. Defensively this team has looked much better the last few weeks. Over the last 3 games (vs Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Maryland) the Knights are allowing just 24 PPG which is a big improvement over their first 6 games of the season where they gave up 40 PPG. They did allow Wisconsin to rush for 300+ yards last week and they are allowing 242 YPG rushing this year so expect a heavy dose of the Wolverine running game on Saturday. We’d be surprised if Michigan put the ball in the air much at all this weekend.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Rutgers won the first game in this series back in 2014 by a final score of 26-24. Since then Michigan is 3-0 winning each by at least 21 points. The combined score of those 3 games is Michigan 162, Rutgers 30. Since 1980, this is the highest road favorite Michigan has EVER been. They were favored by 38 in 1998 at Hawaii. The Wolverines highest road number in Big Ten play was as a 34-point favorite at Minnesota in 1983. Rutgers has been a home dog of more than 39 points only ONCE in their history when they were +40 vs Miami FL back on 2002.

Northwestern at Iowa (-11) – (FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET)

NORTHWESTERN – Surprising to most, the Cats enter their game at Iowa this week in first place in the Big Ten West with a 5-1 mark, one game ahead of Wisconsin and Purdue and two games ahead of this Iowa team. If they could pull the upset here, Northwestern would be in a great spot as they’ve already beaten both Wisconsin & Purdue and then would have a win over Iowa. That would make their lead in the Big Ten West with tiebreakers almost insurmountable. After upsetting Wisconsin two weeks ago, the Cats took a step outside of conference play last week and played host to Notre Dame. While the Irish dominated the stat sheet outgained Northwestern by 215 yards, the Wildcats had shot in this one. After falling down 24-7 early in the fourth quarter, Northwestern rallied to cut the lead to 24-21 midway through the fourth. After the Cats cut the lead to 3, Notre Dame went on an 89-yard game deciding drive then ended in a TD giving them the 31-21 win. The line in this one had the Irish favored by 10 or 10.5 so it fell right on the number. Northwestern now takes the road for the first time since October 20th with games at Iowa and at Minnesota the next two weeks. The road has been good to the Wildcats this year as they sit with a perfect 3-0 record away from home with wins at Purdue, at Michigan State, and at Rutgers.

IOWA – The Hawkeyes left on their 2 game road trip to PSU & Purdue with a chance to come back to Iowa City in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten West. They left with a 3-1 mark and returned at 3-3 which is good for 4th in their division behind Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Purdue. With their hopes of a conference title now barely flickering, this becomes a must win for the Hawkeyes as the chase Northwestern. Last week at Purdue, the Iowa defense, which had been very stout leading into the game, was shredded for 38 points and 434 total yards. The Hawks trailed for much of the game but were able to take their first lead after a 26-yard TD drive with 10:00 minutes remaining which came following a Purdue interception deep in their own territory. That gave Iowa a 36-35 lead until the Boilers kicked the game winning field goal giving them the 38-36 win as time expired. It was the second straight crushing loss for Iowa last second loss for Iowa as a week earlier they threw an interception at the 3-yard line late in their 30-24 loss at PSU. Last week’s line hovered around Purdue -2 or -2.5 for much of the week. It did drop all the way to -1 on gameday giving many a win of they had the Boilermakers. The Hawkeyes look to get head coach Kirk Ferentz his 150th win this Saturday before traveling to Illinois the following week and then closing out the season at home vs Nebraska.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Last year’s match up was a grinder with Northwestern winning 17-10 at home in OT as a 3-point favorite. Defenses obviously dominated with Iowa averaging 4.7 YPP and Northwestern just 4.1. The favorite has covered 6 of the last 7 in this Big Ten series. Since 1993, the Wildcats have been a double digit underdog in this series 7 times. They have covered 6 of those 7 games and won 5 of those games outright. Since 2006 Iowa has been a home favorite of -10 or more in Big Ten play 13 times. They are 2-11 ATS in those games.

Purdue (-12) at Minnesota – (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)

PURDUE – The Boilers knocked off #16 Iowa last Saturday by a final score of 38-36. The win gives Purdue a 3-1 record this year vs ranked opponents. After starting the season 0-3, they have now won 5 of their las 6 games to move to within 1 game of bowl eligibility. While the defense has improved, it’s Jeff Brohm’s offense that is carrying this team. They have scored at least 38 points in 4 of their last 5 games. QB David Blough continues to make his bid as the top signal caller in the Big Ten throwing for 333 yards and 4 TD’s in their win over Iowa. Since taking over as the full time starter on September 16th, Blough has thrown for 17 TD’s in 7 games and has led Purdue to a 5-2 record. While the defense is improved over previous editions, there is one glaring weakness with this team and that is their pass defense. They allowed Hawkeye QB Nate Stanley to complete 66% of his passes for 275 yards. That was a week after allowing Michigan State first time starter Rocky Lombardi to throw for 318 yards. A week prior to that OSU QB Dwayne Haskins threw for almost 500 yards. You get the point. Purdue ranks dead last in the Big Ten and 127th nationally allowing 296 YPG through the air. The Boilers will have to focus on not coming out flat here after their huge home win over Iowa. They were put in a similar situation a few weeks ago coming off their home win over Ohio State and laid an egg at Michigan State losing 23-13.

MINNESOTA – We’re still kicking ourselves for not taking Illinois +9 last week at home vs the Gophers. Our first comment when the line came out was, “Minnesota should not be favored by 9 over anyone on the road.” Well they proved that comment true as they were crushed at Illinois 55-31. The Gopher rush defense which entered allowing 209 YPG on the ground in Big Ten play exited allowing almost 250 YPG after the Illini ran wild for 430 yards! They are now allowing almost 7 YPC in Big Ten play. The Gopher pass defense isn’t any better as they are now allowing a Big Ten worst 70% completion rate. The Illinois passing attack, which is far from potent, put up 216 yards which means Minnesota gave up 646 yards of offense. To Illinois! They are now allowing 507 YPG in conference play. This all led to head coach PJ Fleck to fire defensive coordinator Robb Smith earlier this week. Defensive line coach Joe Rossi, who was once the defensive coordinator at Rutgers, will step into Smith’s role. The offense may get a boost this week as starting QB Zack Annexstad looks like he may return after missing 2 straight games due to an upper body injury. However, his replacement Tanner Morgan, has actually performed very well with 560 yards passing and 5 TD’s in the last 2 games. Morgan isn’t the problem as he’s led the Gophers to 38 and 31 points the last two weeks. We’re not so sure Annexstad gets the start even if he is ready. The defense is obviously the weak spot on this team and they’re getting worse as the season moves along allowing 53, 31, and 55 points their last 3. After a positive 3-0 start to the season, Minnesota now must win 2 of their final 3 just to get to bowl eligible. That could be tough as they play Purdue, Northwestern, and Wisconsin to close out the year.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Purdue rolled to a 31-17 win at home last year as a 3.5 point favorite. So the Boilers were favored by 3.5 at HOME last year and now they are laying double digits on the road 365 days later. The last time Purdue visited Minnesota in 2016 they were 18.5 point underdogs. Thus a swing of more than 30 points in 2 years. Purdue has now been favored in each of their 4 road games this season. They are 2-1 ATS on the road thus far. The Gopher are 18-10 ATS their last 28 as a home underdog.

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FSU at Notre Dame
November 7, 2018
By Bookmaker

NCAA Prevew - Florida State Seminoles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish is getting closer and closer to a berth in the College Football Playoff. The former perennial power has been up and down over the past decade-plus but has put everything together to play extremely well in 2018.

Notre Dame is one of the few undefeated teams remaining in the country and will aim to remain that way in a matchup against the Florida State Seminoles.The Fighting Irish has the talent advantage and the home field advantage so it will clearly be favored. The season has not gone according to plan for Florida State but it would love to play spoiler in this one.

It would be a big upset if the Seminoles manage to pull this one out, as covering the spread may be the more realistic push in this matchup in NCAA football wagering.

This NCAA football game between the Florida State Seminoles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish will be held at Notre Dame Stadium in Notre Dame, Indiana at 5:30 p.m ET on Saturday, November 10th, 2018. The game will be nationally televised on NBC.

We'll have NCAA football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NCAA football season.

Odds Analysis

Notre Dame is listed as the heavy 17.5-point favorite in this one. The Fighting Irish is the -1000 favorite on the moneyline while Florida State is listed at +664 to pull the upset. The scoring total is listed at 54.5 points.

Many college football games can really put a lot of points up but this game doesn’t seem like it will be a shootout in NCAA football betting.

Player To Watch

Ian Book -- Notre Dame was winning early in the season but it wasn’t pretty. Book was elevated to the starting lineup at quarterback and the Fighting Irish has subsequently look much more formidable. Book has thrown for 1,824 yards this season with 15 touchdowns and only four interceptions. He is completing 74.5 percent of his passes, a very impressive numbers, which helps keep drives alive consistently.

Book has also added 218 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground. He isn’t a huge dual threat but has enough scrambling ability to keep defenses honest. Before Book entered the lineup Notre Dame seemed destined to lose a game but now it is in good shape to win out and make it to the national semifinals.

Scheduling Situation

The Seminoles are in the meat of their schedule and thus far it has not gone too well. Florida State has played three ranked teams in its past four games and lost them all. The Seminoles first fell to Miami, but that was only by a point. Florida State beat unranked Wake Forest and then dropped games to No. 2 Clemson and No. 21 North Carolina State.

Both games were blowouts and this one could follow that path. Florida State has traditionally been in Notre Dame’s realm as far as perennial excellence, but that has not been the case this year.

Free NCAA Football ATS Picks

Notre Dame may not be as good as its record, but Florida State is just a bad football team. The Fighting Irish is superior on both sides of the ball and should systematically pull away to pick up this victory.

The spread is large and it’s not an easy cover, but roll with the Fighting Irish to win this game by 18 points or more. The “under” is the pick as Florida State is going to have a tough time putting up points against a solid Notre Dame defense in NCAA football gambling.

NCAA Football Pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish 34, Florida State Seminoles 14

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Ohio State at Michigan State
November 7, 2018
By BetDSI

By Tom Wilkinson

College Football Betting Preview – Ohio State at Michigan State

One of the best offenses in the country faces one of the best defenses in the nation, as the Ohio State Buckeyes visit the Michigan State Spartans on Saturday on FOX. The Buckeyes are 10th in the country in points per game at just over 42 points per game, while the Spartans are 16th in defense, allowing just 19 points per contest. The Buckeyes are listed as slight road favorites in this contest. Let’s look at this matchup and college football picks.

Date and Time: Saturday, November 10, 2018, 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
College Football Odds at BetDSI: Ohio State -3.5, O/U 54
Ohio State vs. Michigan State TV Coverage: FOX

The Buckeyes still have hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff, but they can’t afford another loss and this game against Michigan State looks a lot tougher now than it did a few weeks ago. The Spartans have won their last two games and the defense is playing really well. The defense for Michigan State has a point to prove after they were thrashed last year, losing 48-3 to OSU. “Last year, they had their way,” Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio said to the media, “So we’re gonna have to play very, very well. And we’re gonna have to know what they do and be on top of our game.”

Ohio State has not been a good team against the spread on the road, going 0-3. The Spartans have gone over the total in two of those three games. The Spartans have not been good at home vs. the number, as they are 1-4 ATS. They have gone over in three of their five home games.

If we call the matchup between the Ohio State offense and the Michigan State defense a draw, then this game comes down to the Ohio State defense vs. the Michigan State offense. The Ohio State defense isn’t very good, but the Spartans don’t have a great offense. Michigan State also has an injury problem, as quarterback Brian Lewerke has a right shoulder injury.

Doctors have said that Lewerke can’t damage his shoulder any further by playing, so it is just a matter of pain. The problem for MSU is that Lewerke has admitted that his shoulder is affecting his passes. He should get a lot of chances to make plays against Ohio State, as the Buckeyes have given up 29.2 points per game in their last five games.

Matchup to Watch

It will be interesting to watch the Ohio State offense going up against the Michigan State defense. The Spartans are No. 1 in the country in rushing defense, allowing just 71.7 yards per game. They are just 98th in pass defense, so the Buckeyes will try and throw on Saturday to win this game. Ohio State loves to run the ball, but this game comes down to the Ohio State passing attack against the MSU pass defense.

Key Stats

The Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Michigan State. The Buckeyes are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 games on grass. The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Buckeyes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games. The Spartans are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games. The Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Looking at the total, the Over is 7-2 in the Buckeyes last 9 road games. The Under is 4-0 in the Spartans last 4 games overall. The Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Picks

I don’t trust Ohio State, but I just don’t know how Michigan State is going to keep up with the Buckeyes in terms of scoring points. I lean a little bit to the Buckeyes, but I think the better choice is to play the total. Ohio State can’t stop opposing offenses, so this game should turn into a shootout that goes over the total.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State Pick: Over 54 at BetDSI
Ohio State vs. Michigan State Score Prediction: Ohio State 33, Michigan State 27

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Week 11 Upset Alerts
November 7, 2018
By Sportsbetting.ag

NCAAF Week 11 Upset Alerts

It was a disappointing Saturday for last week's underdogs that I isolated in this piece as they ended up going 1-2 ATS overall. More importantly though, my 9-0 ATS run on the big 20+ underdogs came to an end as UNLV just couldn't hang with Fresno State as I believed they could. Who knows, maybe the run ended because a certain “animal” from ESPN's College Game Day decided to “mush” my run on big dogs by backing UNLV as well, but I've still got a few weeks left in the season to add to that nice record as I look to get back in the winner's circle with those big dogs this week.

Outside of the UNLV play, Virginia Tech (another strong pick from said “animal” last week) couldn't manage to hold onto a 14-7 halftime lead in their 10-point home loss to Boston College, but Louisiana-Lafayette did the opposite in using a strong 3rd quarter to get back in their game to end up covering the +10.5 number by the hook. A 1-2 ATS week with the lone winner coming by a hook is not ideal, but hopefully the results this week turn out to be much more profitable.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 range

YTD: 3-8 SU; 3-8 ATS

Tennessee +6 over Kentucky

The Kentucky Wildcats got served a harsh dose of reality last week when Georgia came into their house and put a beating on them (34-17) in what was a defacto SEC East title game. For as good as this year has been for Kentucky, they just didn't have the talent on either side of the ball to match up with that Georgia team. Now sitting at 7-2 SU and no division crown or conference title game within reach, what's really left to play for if you're Kentucky?

Last week's game against Georgia got all the hype as one of the biggest in recent history for Kentucky's football program and rightfully so. But with the way it went down, the Wildcats probably can't help but be plenty disappointed if for no other reason than what could have been with a win. Now, they go out on the road to face a Tennessee team that the markets have not given much credit too all year long, so where will the energy be to show up? Sure, a 10-win campaign is still a reasonable goal for the Wildcats (they should be able to beat Middle Tennessee and Louisville in their final two games), but with this spread being bet up to -6 after coming out at -3.5, I believe most of those bettors are not considering this brutal situation the Wildcats are in this week.

Not only could there be an extreme lack of interest in this game from Kentucky's standpoint, but what's been masked in Kentucky's great campaign is the fact that this Wildcats offense has really struggled for about a month now. Kentucky hasn't scored more than 17 points in their last four games, and that includes games against the likes of Missouri and Vanderbilt, two SEC rivals that aren't exactly known for their defense. This is also the first time Kentucky has laid chalk on the road this year and is it really that warranted? They beat Mizzou on a untimed final play of the game in their last road outing, and if it wasn't for a fumble recovery TD with four minutes left @ Texas A&M prior to that, the Wildcats would have never even got to OT against the Aggies.

Simply put, that initial -3.5 line the oddsmakers came out with for this game is probably where this line should actually be, but I'll gladly take the extra points with this Tennessee team that's catching Kentucky in a huge letdown spot and trying to become Bowl eligible themselves.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range

YTD: 1-9 SU; 5-5 ATS

Auburn +14 over Georgia

Speaking of that Kentucky/Georgia game last week, the Georgia Bulldogs did what they needed to do and now basically have a full month to prepare for Alabama in the SEC title game. Georgia would love to get some revenge for falling to 'Bama in the National Championship a year ago, and you know HC Kirby Smart will isolate some time each week to begin implementing his plan for the Crimson Tide this time around. That's not to say the Bulldogs will be taking this Auburn team extremely lightly as Georgia still has to win games SU to be considered for the CFP playoff, but in this spot, it's just too many points to lay.

Georgia may already be eyeing their revenge against Alabama next month, but Auburn's got their own vengeful thoughts this week. Remember, it was Georgia who beat Auburn rather handily (28-7) in last year's SEC Championship game, three weeks after Auburn had clobbered the Bulldogs 40-17. That SEC Championship loss likely cost Auburn a spot in last year's playoff (and who knows if Alabama would have got in then), and the Tigers would love to be that speed bump that Georgia stumbles on a year later in their quest for national supremacy.

The Tigers have not closed as an underdog all year, so to see them catching this many points was rather surprising. However, given that Georgia looked very good a week ago in the national spotlight and are now on a collision course with Alabama, the spread probably had to come out in this range if for no other reason than for oddsmakers to protect themselves from a flood of Bulldogs money. But similar to Kentucky being in a letdown spot after last week, Georgia could feel some of those affects as well here, as they accomplished their first goal of the 2018 season (win the SEC East) and now it's time to just survive and advance. That's going to be easier said than done against this Auburn team that's looking for redemption after how their season ended a year ago. This should be a single-digit margin of victory for the Bulldogs at best.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range

YTD: 9-1 ATS

Rutgers +39 over Michigan

I've been a big fan of the “Michigan Revenge Tour” all year long if for no other reason than the Wolverines weren't shy about putting that statement out there from the get-go and have backed it up every step of the way. Last week's 42-7 win over Penn State as the latest instalment for the Tour was impressive, as Michigan has now covered the number in four straight weeks and done so with relative ease. But it's also been three straight weeks where the Revenge Tour has taken center stage in terms of focus (Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State) and now the Wolverines – who are currently inside the playoff picture – get a week to let up a bit as they visit lowly Rutgers.

Without question, Michigan will win this game SU rather easily, but winning by 40 on the road after three straight high-intensity weeks (with one more still to come down the road @ Ohio State) is a lot to ask. There are plenty of bettors that would suggest fading Michigan next week prior to that Ohio State game may be the better spot, but I actually believe this is the week to go that route simply because the Wolverines know they've just got to show up for probably a quarter before this game is well within control.

Rutgers has not been a good team all year long (1-8 SU) and going against arguably the nation's best defense this week won't be fun. But the Scarlet Knights have managed to cover big numbers the last two weeks (vs Northwestern and Wisconsin) and I think Michigan lets them hang around enough to make it three straight ATS wins this week. With the number being as high as it is, a garbage time score by Rutgers may be all they need to cinch the cover, as Michigan can't have too much interest in “style points” given that they are already in the playoff picture; and really, a win by 28-35 points is still plenty of “style” for Michigan to show the committee.

A mental letdown after three straight weeks of “Touring” will be what holds Michigan back from covering all this chalk, as they just want to leave New Jersey healthy. Michigan will let Rutgers keep some dignity here by sitting on the ball late and giving their depth guys plenty of time on the field, pushing the Scarlet Knights record as double-digit home underdogs this year to a perfect 3-0 ATS.

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Wake Forest at N.C. State
November 6, 2018
By Joe Nelson

This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes from the ACC Atlantic as Wake Forest and North Carolina State face off in Raleigh in a battle of schools just over 100 miles apart. While neither will catch Clemson in the Atlantic standings, this is important game on both sides and a rematch of a memorable game from 2017.

Matchup: Wake Forest Demon Deacons at N.C. State Wolfpack
Venue: at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina
Time/TV: Thursday, November 8, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: N.C. State -17, Over/Under 69
Last Meeting: 2017, at Wake Forest (-2½) 30, N.C. State 24

Dave Clawson has taken Wake Forest to a bowl game the past two years but that run is in jeopardy with the Demon Deacons 4-5 with three games to play. This is the final game on the Atlantic side for Wake Forest as the final two contests are Coastal crossover games hosting Pittsburgh and playing at Duke. Wake Forest can expect to be an underdog in all three games and will need to win two of those three games to make the postseason.

Accomplishing that task has the added hurdle of quarterback Sam Hartman being lost for the season last week. With Kendall Hinton suspended and Jamie Newman injured at the start of the season, the freshman Hartman was thrust into the starting role from the opener and he has performed reasonably well with 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Newman, a sophomore, will take over with 19 pass attempts under his belt in three games of the past two seasons. Newman is 6’4” and 240 pounds as his size will be an asset but the Deacons have not come close to matching the production that John Wolford brought to the team last season.

Wake Forest has a solid running game averaging 224 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry with two 600 yard rushers, leaning on senior Matt Colbrun more in recent weeks. Newman has some mobility but the top player on the offense has been receiver Greg Dortch who has 69 catches for 846 yards while also providing a threat in the return game.

At 4-5 the best win for Wake Forest came in overtime in the opener at Tulane with the other victories coming against FCS Towson, Rice, and Louisville. Wake Forest played within seven vs. Boston College early in the season but has lost by double-digits in every defeat since. In ACC play Wake Forest is 1-4 while being outscored by 84 points. The Demon Deacons are 2-1 on the road this season however including getting the only ACC win on the road at Louisville.

N.C. State is 6-2 but with a lopsided loss to Clemson the Wolfpack also have a negative scoring differential in ACC play. N.C. State went into Clemson undefeated but lost 41-7 and then lost at Syracuse the following week. N.C. State did beat Virginia and Boston College at home and last week bested Florida State 47-28.

While it has been a down year for the Seminoles that was a big win for N.C. State and despite the 19-point final the Wolfpack were out-gained in the contest but benefited from two turnovers. N.C. State will be favored in all four remaining games as finishing 10-2 is realistic, with the program not reaching 10 wins since 2002 under Chuck Amato.

Dave Doeren has led steady success in Raleigh with now five straight winning seasons. The Wolpack have frequently played very light non-conference schedules and that will be no different this season, though in fairness West Virginia was on the September schedule but the game was cancelled due to the hurricane.

Expectations were grounded for this year’s team with very few returning starters from a 9-4 squad that won the Sun Bowl and finished 6-2 in ACC play. The one key player returning was quarterback Ryan Finley and he has delivered a productive senior season. Finley transferred from Boise State and is posting easily his best season with a nearly 68 percent completion rate for 8.5 yards per attempt. He has 16 touchdowns passes and just six interceptions while approaching 2,500 yards passing.

N.C. State hasn’t run the ball very successfully with Reggie Gallaspy leading the team with 554 yards and nine touchdowns but posting only 4.0 yards per carry and as a team N.C. State gains only 3.6 yards per attempt. The biggest contrast in the numbers between these teams comes in run defense as N.C. State is allowing 3.1 yards per carry for the 13th best mark nationally, with only Michigan State and Texas A&M allowing fewer net rushing yards this season. Wake Forest ranks 119th nationally in rushing yards per carry allowed this season, surrendering 26 rushing touchdowns.
Ultimately N.C. State should be at a significant advantage in this matchup but it is a possible letdown spot after a prominent win in convincing fashion over Florida State for homecoming. Newman also provides a challenging matchup physically with his size and preparing for a quarterback that there isn’t much film on can provide some surprises for a defense.

Last Season: N.C. State should have no shortage of motivation for this game after losing 30-24 at Wake Forest last season. Then 7-3, N.C. State was a slight underdog against 6-4 Wake Forest. It was a back-and-forth game with the score tied four different times after 0-0. N.C. State settled for a short field goal in the fourth quarter to knot the game at 24-24 but Wake Forest quickly answered but had the PAT blocked to lead by six. N.C. State went 71 yards on the next drive but Emeka Emezie fumbled right outside the goal line with about two minutes remaining. N.C. State got the ball back in the final minute and picked up a roughing the passer call on first down to reach the Wake Forest 31-yard-line. Finley was ultimately intercepted in the end zone as Wake Forest held on despite a 502-334 yardage edge for N.C. State.

Historical Trends:

-- N.C. State is 25-13 straight up but just 20-18 against the spread in this series since 1980, though winning and covering in four of the last six and each of the last five home meetings.

-- This is set to be the biggest spread in this series since N.C. State was -21 in a 38-3 win in 2010. N.C. State is 21-27 ATS as a double-digit home favorite since 1998 including a 1-5 run since the start of last season.

-- Wake Forest is 10-5 ATS as a road underdog since 2015 including going 6-2 ATS in the last eight instances as a road underdog of 10 or more points.

-- Under Doeren, N.C. State is 24-15 S/U and 18-21 ATS at home.

-- While under Clawson, Wake Forest is 9-17 S/U and 14-12 ATS in road games.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, November 8

Wake Forest @ North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Wake Forest is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Wake Forest's last 8 games

North Carolina State
North Carolina State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
North Carolina State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Wake Forest

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Thursday, November 8

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WAKE FOREST (4 - 5) at NC STATE (6 - 2) - 11/8/2018, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NC STATE is 1-1 against the spread versus WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
NC STATE is 1-1 straight up against WAKE FOREST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Thursday, November 8

Wake Forest @ NC State

Game 109-110
November 8, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wake Forest
77.423
NC State
100.936
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NC State
by 23 1/2
71
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NC State
by 17 1/2
68 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NC State
(-17 1/2); Over


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NCAA (COLLEGE)

DUNKEL'S HIGHLIGHTED GAME

Wake Forest at NC State - Thursday November 8, 2018

The Demon Deacons head to NC State tonight to face the Wolfpack (6-2) and come into the contest with an 0-6 ATS record in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record. NC State is the pick (-17 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wolfpack favored by 23 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NC State (-17 1/2).

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 8, 2018

Wake Forest
@
NC State
Game 109-110
November 8, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating: Wake Forest
77.423
NC State
100.936
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: NC State
by 23 1/2
71
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: NC State
by 17 1/2
68 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC State
(-17 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 8
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WAKE at NCST 07:30 PM

NCST -19.5

U 68.0

[StarDust Bum]

Newman helps Wake upset NC State
November 8, 2018
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RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) Everything seemed aligned against Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons had a quarterback making his first start, an injury-depleted defense facing an offense peppered with future NFL players, and trailed by 10 points in the fourth quarter in a stadium where they almost never win,

Yet No. 22 North Carolina State couldn't seal the victory, so Wake Forest snatched it away.

Jamie Newman threw a 32-yard touchdown pass to Jack Freudenthal with 30 seconds left to give Wake Forest a 27-23 upset victory Thursday night.

''It's just about staying poised, honestly,'' Newman said. ''Staying poised and being smart, not letting the moment get too big for you.''

Making his first career start, Newman was 22 of 33 for 297 yards with three touchdown passes in the second half to help the Demon Deacons (5-5, 2-4 Atlantic Coast Conference) rally from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter. The 19 1/2-point underdogs earned their first road victory over a Top 25 team in a decade.

''This was going to be a game that we just have to grind, and grind, and grind, and somehow find a way to win,'' coach Dave Clawson said. ''And to our kids' credit, they did it. Every time that that thing was on the brink of getting away from us, we just did one thing to stay in it.''

Newman threw a 38-yard scoring pass to Alex Bachman before his 19-yard TD to Greg Dortch pulled Wake Forest to 23-20 with 6:07 left.

N.C. State bled nearly 4 1/2 minutes off the clock before its drive stalled at the Wake Forest 20 with 1:39 left. Newman completed 5 of 8 passes on the possession that followed, taking a hit as he connected with Freudenthal - who was wide-open after Bachman blocked two defenders - over the middle for the go-ahead score.

''We were in the huddle, and we said, `We've just got to go,''' Freudenthal said.

The Wolfpack advanced to their own 49 before Ryan Finley's final pass for the end zone was intercepted by receiver Scottie Washington - playing defensive back on the last play - to end it.

Finley finished 35 of 52 for 374 yards with a 35-yard touchdown pass to Emeka Emezie and a 2-yard touchdown run for the Wolfpack (6-3, 3-3, No. 14 CFP). The pass to Emezie put them up 23-13 one play into the fourth quarter.

After losing three of four to fall out of contention in the Atlantic Division, they'll only reach their goal of the school's first 10-win season since 2002 if they win out and win their bowl game.

THE TAKEAWAY

Wake Forest: Maybe a third straight bowl berth isn't out of the question for the Demon Deacons, who hadn't beaten a nationally ranked opponent on its home field since knocking off No. 24 Florida State in 2008 and had won in Raleigh only once in their previous 16 tries. This didn't look at all like the same Wake Forest team that was routed by No. 3 Notre Dame and No. 2 Clemson.

N.C. State: This one is going to sting the Wolfpack, who settled for three short field goals after drives stalled deep inside the red zone - twice at the 6-yard line, once at the 12. They also finished with a season-worst 47 yards rushing against the ACC's worst run defense, and on a drive that was supposed to bleed the clock, they rushed for minus-6 yards on three carries while relying heavily on Finley's throwing.

''I take responsibility any time my team doesn't play the way that it can, and I do,'' coach Dave Doeren said. ''We had a lot of opportunities, and there (are) a lot of things that happened throughout the course of the game that led to the result.''

POLL IMPLICATIONS

The Wolfpack's return to the AP Top 25 figures to be short-lived. N.C. State dropped out of the poll after losing two weeks ago at Syracuse, climbed back in following their rout of Florida State and seems likely to drop right back out.

KEY STATS

The Wolfpack averaged just 1.7 yards per carry - also a season worst - while Wake Forest had 11 tackles for losses, including four sacks. N.C. State fell to 1-3 when it averages fewer than 3.5 yards per carry.

STRATEGY SHIFT

The Demon Deacons are usually one of the fastest-playing teams in the country, averaging more than 85 plays per game. But the quarterback change and the lack of depth on defense forced Clawson to slow things down. They ran only 71 plays in this one. ''If we do what we normally do ... there's no way we hold them to 23 points,'' Clawson said.

UP NEXT

Wake Forest: Returns home to play host to Coastal Division leader Pittsburgh on Nov. 17.

N.C. State: Visits Louisville on Nov. 17.

[StarDust Bum]

College Football Best Bets and Opinions

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/08/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
11/07/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
11/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
11/03/2018 25-32-3 43.86% -51.00
11/02/2018 4-2-0 66.66% +9.00
11/01/2018 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00

Totals............36-41-3........46.75%.....-45.50


Best Bets:

Best Bets For November

DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL

11/08/2018..............0 - 1..................-5.50....................1 - 0................+5.00...............-0.50
11/07/2018..............1 - 1..................-0.50....................1 - 1.................-0.50...............-1.00
11/06/2018..............1 - 0..................+5.00...................1 - 0................+5.00..............+10.00
11/03/2018.............10 - 13...............-21.50...................3 - 4................-7.00...............-28.50
11/02/2018..............2 - 1..................+4.50...................2 - 1................+4.50..............+9.00
11/01/2018..............2 - 1..................+4.50...................0 - 3................-16.50..............-12.00

Totals....................16 - 17.................-13.50....................8 - 9................-9.50..............-23.00