Cnotes 2018 College Football Thru The Bowl Games News- Trends-Stats-Best Bets !

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Tuesday, November 13

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W MICHIGAN (6 - 4) at BALL ST (3 - 7) - 11/13/2018, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
W MICHIGAN is 2-0 against the spread versus BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
W MICHIGAN is 2-0 straight up against BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Tuesday, November 13

Western Michigan @ Ball State
Western Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Western Michigan's last 7 games when playing on the road against Ball State
Western Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Ball State

Ball State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ball State's last 7 games when playing at home against Western Michigan
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ball State's last 9 games

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12


Tuesday’s games

Western Michigan won its last four games with Ball State, scoring 52+ points in last three- they hammered the Cardinals 55-3 (-14) at home LY. WMU lost its last two games after a 6-2 start, allowing 51-59 points; Broncos are 4-1 on road, 2-2 as AF- they’re 8-5-1 in last 14 games as road favorites. Ball State lost its last three games, allowing 42-52-45 points; under Neu, Ball is 1-7 as home underdogs, 0-3 this year. Cardinals are 2-3 at home TY, with losses by 8-8-22 points. Over is 3-1 in last four Western games, under is 6-3 in Cardinal games.


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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 12


Tuesday, November 13

Western Michigan @ Ball State

Game 301-302
November 13, 2018 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Western Michigan
69.386
Ball State
63.809
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Western Michigan
by 5 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Michigan
by 7 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Ball State
(+7 1/2); Under

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Ball State outlasts WMU in OT, 42-41
November 13, 2018
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MUNCIE, Ind. (AP) Drew Plitt threw for 258 yards and three touchdowns, with only five incompletions, and Ball State beat Western Michigan 42-41 in overtime on Tuesday night.

Plitt connected with Kyle Schrank for a 2-yard touchdown on the first possession of overtime. Freshman Kaleb Eleby answered with a 1-yard sneak, but WMU's 2-point conversion attempt was no good when LeVante Bellamy was tripped up short of the end zone.

James Gilbert had two rushing touchdowns for Ball State (4-7, 3-4 Mid-American Conference). Riley Miller, who entered with a touchdown catch in four straight games and five of six games, had 94 yards receiving and one touchdown. Morgan Hagee made six extra points to break Ball State's program record of 122 by Ian McGarvey in 2010.

Ball State led 21-17 at halftime, led by Plitt's 13-of-15 passing for 174 yards and two touchdowns.

Eleby, who made his debut on Oct. 25, was 20-of-29 passing for 187 yards and a touchdown for Western Michigan (6-5, 4-3), which is bowl eligible for a program-record fifth straight season. Bellamy carried it 35 times for 213 yards and a touchdown and Jamauri Bogan added 105 yards on 25 carries and two touchdowns.

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Wednesday’s 6-pack

Six more interesting games on this week’s college football schedule:

— Pittsburgh (-5.5) @ Wake Forest

— Wisconsin @ Purdue (-4.5)

— Northwestern (-2.5) @ Minnesota

— Missouri (-6) @ Tennessee

— Utah (-7) @ Colorado

— TCU @ Baylor (-2)

Quote of the Day
“It cancelled out the weed smell we usually get in Oakland.”
Chargers DL Corey Liuget, talking about the smoky smell in Oakland Sunday

Wednesday’s quiz
LSU’s basketball arena is named after which former LSU great?

Tuesday’s quiz
in the movie Hoosiers, the climactic basketball scenes were shot in Butler’s Hinkle Fieldhouse.

Monday’s quiz
Jim Harbaugh was the 49ers’ coach the last time they played in the playoffs, in 2013.

*****************

Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings……

13) Monday night’s Rams-Chiefs game was moved from Mexico City to Los Angeles, after the NFL determined the field in Mexico City wasn’t up to NFL quality. Player safety took precedence over the almighty buck, which is the way it should be.

12) Random fact that doesn’t matter for Monday night’s game anymore; the altitude in Mexico City is 7,350 feet. Denver’s altitude is 5,280 feet, which is why the Broncos play in Mile High Stadium, at least thats what it was called before corporate sponsorship was invented.

11) Congrats to the great Bob Melvin, who was named AL Manager of the Year Tuesday night. I watch the A’s play every night; you have no idea how great a job he did, leading the team with the lowest payroll in baseball to the playoffs this past summer. Well deserved award!!!

That said, Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash was also awesome this season, winning 90 games with a Rays’ squad that doesn’t exactly spend a lot of money either.

10) Eli Manning’s career W-L record in regular season games is 113-110; he is the only NFL QB ever with 100+ wins and 100+ losses for the same team.

Question for Giants’ fans out there: Who do you think was a better Giant, Eli Manning or Phil Simms? I’m curious what you think- e-mail me at [email protected]

9) If you’re debating whether Manning is a Hall of Famer, keep in mind that Joe Namath (62-63-4) is only Hall of Fame QB with a losing record- he won only two playoff games, one Super Bowl, albeit the Super Bowl that forced the AFL/NFL merger. By way of reference, Jim Plunkett was 72-72 and also won two Super Bowls- he isn’t in the HOF.

8) Brooklyn Nets’ star Caris LeVert hurt his foot in Minnesota Monday night; the injury was so gruesome, there were teammates in tears on the Brooklyn bench, but it turned out relatively well. LeVert dislocated his foot, won’t need surgery and could return later this season.

7) That didn’t take long; former Browns’ coach Hue Jackson is going to join the Cincinnati Bengals‘ coaching staff immediately; his title on the Bengals’ staff is unknown right now, but he joined the team Tuesday.

Bengals have a bye this week; they play the Browns play a week from Sunday, and then again in Week 16- those games figure to be very interesting.

6) Penny Hardaway is going to create a monster program at Memphis; not only is he a legend at Memphis he has two former NBA players (Sam Mitchell, Mike Miller) on his coaching staff, as well as another former Memphis Tiger (Tony Madlock). Memphis is a hotbed of high school talent; hard to believe Hardaway isn’t going to dominate the recruiting there.

Memphis-LSU game on SEC Network Tuesday night was great fun.

5) Golden State Warriors have dissension? Apparently, Draymond Green and Kevin Durant got into it late in Monday night’s loss to the Clippers, and the dispute spilled over into the locker room after the game. Green was then suspended for Tuesday night’s game.

I’ve said this before, but seems like in a league where most everyone is really rich, the NBA has an awful lot of angry people. If the Warriors can’t get along, who can?

Durant wasn’t happy on the Thunder, who were a very good team; now he’s not happy on the Warriors, who are a stacked team. Maybe he can go to China and score 50 a game like Jimmer Fredette and make all the decisions- maybe he’d be happy then.

4) Sacramento Kings beat the Spurs 104-99 Monday night, ending a 14-game losing streak against San Antonio. Kings are 8-6 and appear to be vastly improved, and they also seem to be enjoying the experience. Good for them.

3) Le’Veon Bell didn’t report to the Steelers by 4pm Tuesday, cannot play in the NFL this season; he forfeits all of his $15M salary, hoping to clean up as a free agent this winter. We’ll see how that works out for him.

2) Alabama is playing The Citadel in football this weekend; this is pathetic, that a team as good as Alabama is playing a I-AA team. Play a Sun Belt team, play a MAC team. Have some guts and play someone who can challenge you. This is embarrassing.

1) Nathan Peterman’s NFL career has mercifully come to an end, after the Bills cut him. Not sure what took them so long, but Josh Allen is almost ready to play again, so Peterman was released.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, November 14

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BUFFALO (9 - 1) at OHIO U (6 - 4) - 11/14/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
BUFFALO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO U is 1-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
OHIO U is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI OHIO (4 - 6) at N ILLINOIS (7 - 3) - 11/14/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Wednesday, November 14

Buffalo @ Ohio
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Ohio
Ohio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Ohio is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Buffalo

Miami-OH @ Northern Illinois
Miami-OH
Miami-OH is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami-OH is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Northern Illinois is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

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Wednesday, Nov. 14

BUFFALO at OHIO... Solich 14-8 vs. line since LY and has covered last six vs. FBS foes at Athens. Bulls however 8-2-1 vs. spread last 11 away from home and 8-2 last ten on board. Home team has won and covered last five in series.
Slight to Ohio, based on series trends.


MIAMI-OHIO at NORTHERN ILLINOIS... NIU has switched gears and won last 6 SU, covering 5 of those, but Miami on 6-1 spread run. Huskies still just 2-5 last 7 vs. line as MAC host. RedHawks have covered 3 of last 4 away TY.
Slight to Miami-Ohio, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s 6-pack

Six more interesting games on this week’s college football schedule:

— Pittsburgh (-5.5) @ Wake Forest

— Wisconsin @ Purdue (-4.5)

— Northwestern (-2.5) @ Minnesota

— Missouri (-6) @ Tennessee

— Utah (-7) @ Colorado

— TCU @ Baylor (-2)

Quote of the Day
“It cancelled out the weed smell we usually get in Oakland.”
Chargers DL Corey Liuget, talking about the smoky smell in Oakland Sunday

Wednesday’s quiz
LSU’s basketball arena is named after which former LSU great?

Tuesday’s quiz
in the movie Hoosiers, the climactic basketball scenes were shot in Butler’s Hinkle Fieldhouse.

Monday’s quiz
Jim Harbaugh was the 49ers’ coach the last time they played in the playoffs, in 2013.

*****************

Wednesday’s List of 13: Mid-week musings……

13) Monday night’s Rams-Chiefs game was moved from Mexico City to Los Angeles, after the NFL determined the field in Mexico City wasn’t up to NFL quality. Player safety took precedence over the almighty buck, which is the way it should be.

12) Random fact that doesn’t matter for Monday night’s game anymore; the altitude in Mexico City is 7,350 feet. Denver’s altitude is 5,280 feet, which is why the Broncos play in Mile High Stadium, at least thats what it was called before corporate sponsorship was invented.

11) Congrats to the great Bob Melvin, who was named AL Manager of the Year Tuesday night. I watch the A’s play every night; you have no idea how great a job he did, leading the team with the lowest payroll in baseball to the playoffs this past summer. Well deserved award!!!

That said, Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash was also awesome this season, winning 90 games with a Rays’ squad that doesn’t exactly spend a lot of money either.

10) Eli Manning’s career W-L record in regular season games is 113-110; he is the only NFL QB ever with 100+ wins and 100+ losses for the same team.

Question for Giants’ fans out there: Who do you think was a better Giant, Eli Manning or Phil Simms? I’m curious what you think- e-mail me at [email protected]

9) If you’re debating whether Manning is a Hall of Famer, keep in mind that Joe Namath (62-63-4) is only Hall of Fame QB with a losing record- he won only two playoff games, one Super Bowl, albeit the Super Bowl that forced the AFL/NFL merger. By way of reference, Jim Plunkett was 72-72 and also won two Super Bowls- he isn’t in the HOF.

8) Brooklyn Nets’ star Caris LeVert hurt his foot in Minnesota Monday night; the injury was so gruesome, there were teammates in tears on the Brooklyn bench, but it turned out relatively well. LeVert dislocated his foot, won’t need surgery and could return later this season.

7) That didn’t take long; former Browns’ coach Hue Jackson is going to join the Cincinnati Bengals‘ coaching staff immediately; his title on the Bengals’ staff is unknown right now, but he joined the team Tuesday.

Bengals have a bye this week; they play the Browns play a week from Sunday, and then again in Week 16- those games figure to be very interesting.

6) Penny Hardaway is going to create a monster program at Memphis; not only is he a legend at Memphis he has two former NBA players (Sam Mitchell, Mike Miller) on his coaching staff, as well as another former Memphis Tiger (Tony Madlock). Memphis is a hotbed of high school talent; hard to believe Hardaway isn’t going to dominate the recruiting there.

Memphis-LSU game on SEC Network Tuesday night was great fun.

5) Golden State Warriors have dissension? Apparently, Draymond Green and Kevin Durant got into it late in Monday night’s loss to the Clippers, and the dispute spilled over into the locker room after the game. Green was then suspended for Tuesday night’s game.

I’ve said this before, but seems like in a league where most everyone is really rich, the NBA has an awful lot of angry people. If the Warriors can’t get along, who can?

Durant wasn’t happy on the Thunder, who were a very good team; now he’s not happy on the Warriors, who are a stacked team. Maybe he can go to China and score 50 a game like Jimmer Fredette and make all the decisions- maybe he’d be happy then.

4) Sacramento Kings beat the Spurs 104-99 Monday night, ending a 14-game losing streak against San Antonio. Kings are 8-6 and appear to be vastly improved, and they also seem to be enjoying the experience. Good for them.

3) Le’Veon Bell didn’t report to the Steelers by 4pm Tuesday, cannot play in the NFL this season; he forfeits all of his $15M salary, hoping to clean up as a free agent this winter. We’ll see how that works out for him.

2) Alabama is playing The Citadel in football this weekend; this is pathetic, that a team as good as Alabama is playing a I-AA team. Play a Sun Belt team, play a MAC team. Have some guts and play someone who can challenge you. This is embarrassing.

1) Nathan Peterman’s NFL career has mercifully come to an end, after the Bills cut him. Not sure what took them so long, but Josh Allen is almost ready to play again, so Peterman was released.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's MAC Action
Brian Edwards

Bettors have more mid-week MACtion on tap with Wednesday’s doubleheader. Let's break down both contests before exploring some national topics in Bonus Nuggets below.

**Buffalo at Ohio**

-- As of early this morning, most betting shops had Ohio (6-4 straight up, 6-4 against the spread) installed as a two-point home favorite with a total of 66. The Bulls were +110 on the money line (risk $100 to win $110).

-- Ohio is undefeated in four home games with a 3-1 spread record. Frank Solich’s 14th team in Athens saw its three-game winning streak snapped in last week’s 30-28 loss at Miami (OH.) as a 4.5-point road favorite. The 58 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 59-point total. After scoring on Maleek Irons’ three-yard TD run to draw first blood last Tuesday in Athens, the RedHawks scored 28 unanswered points to take a 21-point lead into intermission. Ohio would rally, however, trimming the deficit to 14 on Nathan Rourke’s nine-yard TD pass to Papi White with 2:32 left in the third quarter. Then with 9:14 remaining, the Bobcats blocked a punt that was scooped up by Dylan Connor and returned 28 yards for a score. Ohio was buried deep at its own 1-yard line and three players later, Miami’s Doug Costin sacked Rourke for a safety. The Bobcats would get the ball back and get to within 30-28 on Rourke’s 18-yard scoring strike Andrew Meyer. After a stop, Ohio got to Miami’s 45 but Rourke’s Hail Mary on the games final play was unanswered.

-- Ohio’s stretch of four consecutive covers also came to an end. Even worse, the Bobcats’ MAC record fell to 4-2 to leave it two games back of Buffalo in the East. They’ll need to win back-to-back contests to close the regular season and hope Bowling Green can upset Buffalo next week.

-- Rourke completed 16-of-27 passes for 163 yards and two TDs without an interception in the loss at Miami. A.J. Ouellette had 168 rushing yards on 15 attempts, while White had five receptions for 44 yards and one TD. Ouellette had three catches for 29 yards.

-- Rourke, the junior QB who was a second-team All-MAC selection in 2017, has the MAC’s highest QB Rating (163.66). He has completed 62.3 percent of his throws for 1,932 yards with a 19/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rourke has also rushed for 653 yards and eight TDs, averaging 6.5 yards per carry.

-- Ouellette is third in the MAC in rushing yards (777), fourth in TD runs (eight) and ninth in YPC average (5.4). Irons has run for 613 yards and seven TDs with a 6.4 YPC average. He has five catches for 34 yards and one TD, while Ouellette has 16 receptions for 146 yards and one TD.

-- Ohio is ranked 12th in the nation in scoring (39.3 points per game), 19th in rushing yards and 29th in total offense.

-- Buffalo (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) is a perfect 4-0 both SU and ATS in four road assignments this season. The Bulls are on a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS since suffering their only loss of the year in a 42-13 setback vs. Army as a 7.5-point home ‘chalk.’ They’ve won four of the five games by 14 points or more and all five by at least seven points. They’re off last Tuesday’s 48-14 win over Kent St. as 17-point home favorites. Buffalo darted out to a 21-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, led 34-0 at intermission and 48-0 going into the final stanza. The Golden Flashes got a pair of fourth-quarter TDs to avoid taking cream-cheese treatment and make the score look a tad more respectable. True freshman RB Jaret Patterson stole the show by turning 18 carries into 187 rushing yards and two TDs. QB Tyree Jackson threw for 111 yards and one TD without an interception, in addition to rushing for a score.

-- Buffalo can clinch the MAC’s Eastern Division with a win in this spot. Even if the Bulls come up short, they’ll still go to the MAC Championship Game if they can win at Bowling Green next week.

-- Buffalo is led by Jackson, the 6’7” junior signal caller who has completed 56.1 percent of his passes for 2,338 yards with a 24/8 TD-INT ratio. Jackson also has 95 rushing yards and six TDs. He has two prime targets in K.J. Osborn and Anthony Johnson. Osborn has 45 catches for 761 yards and six TDs, while Johnson has 35 receptions for 699 yards and nine TDs.

-- Patterson has rushed for a team-best 728 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 6.0 YPC. Kevin Marks has 616 rushing yards for eight scores with a 5.0 YPC.

-- Although Lance Leipold’s squad lost at home to Army, Buffalo did post non-conference wins at Temple (36-29) and at Rutgers (42-13).

-- Buffalo has been a road underdog on Leipold’s watch 18 times during his four-year tenure, producing a 7-8-1 spread record. However, the Bulls are 2-0 ATS in a pair of such spots this year and 5-1-1 in their past seven games as road ‘dogs.

-- When these schools collided at UB Stadium last year on Nov. 24, Buffalo captured a 31-24 win as a 6.5-point home underdog. The 55 combined points hit right on the total for a push. Jackson led the Bulls by throwing for 294 yards and two TDs without an interception. Emmanuel Reed’s one-yard TD run untied the game and provided the winning points with 8:10 remaining. Johnson had six receptions for 155 yards and two TDs. Rourke completed 15-of-30 passes for 265 yards with one TD and one interception. The Ohio QB rushed for 49 yards and two TDs on 16 attempts.

-- The home team has won eight games in a row in this rivalry and has covered the number in five straight encounters.

-- The ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back Buffalo games to improve to 7-3 overall and 3-1 in its road contests. The Bulls have watched their games average combined scores of 58.7 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 5-4-1 overall for the Bobcats, 2-1-1 in their home outings. They’ve seen their games average combined scores 66.8 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois**

-- As of early this morning, most books had Northern Illinois (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) installed as a 6.5-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 48. The RedHawks were +200 on the money line (risk $100 to win $200).

-- NIU clinched the MAC West to garner a spot in the conference’s championship game with last week’s 38-15 win over Toledo as a 3.5-point home favorite. Since losing 37-10 at FSU on Sept. 22, the Huskies have won six games in a row while compiling a 5-1 spread record in the process. They’re 6-0 in MAC play and won a 7-6 decision at BYU last month. NIU took its two other L’s at Iowa (33-7) and vs. Utah (17-6).

-- Rod Carey’s club has won three of its four home games while going 2-2 ATS. The Huskies covered the spread in their only home loss to the Utes, who needed a pick-six late in the fourth quarter to put the game on ice. Nevertheless, NIU still took the money as a 12.5-point home ‘dog. The Huskies are 1-2 ATS as home favorites this year, 12-15 ATS in 27 such spots since Carey took over in 2013.

-- Sophomore QB Marcus Childers has connected on 57.4 percent of his passes for 1,383 yards with a 10/6 TD-INT ratio. He’s run for 328 yards and five TDs. Tre Harbison paces NIU in rushing with 804 yards and four TDs with a 5.5 YPC average. Marcus Jones has 478 rushing yards, three rushing scores and a 5.8 YPC average.

-- Childers has a pair of primary targets in Jauan Wesley and D.J. Brown. Wesley has 42 receptions for 473 yards and two TDs, while Brown has caught 41 balls for 351 yards and three TDs. Brown also has 81 rushing yards and one TD on 14 carries for a 5.8 YPC average.

-- Miami (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) is hoping to win its next two games to get bowl eligible for the second time in three years. As previously noted, the RedHawks won a tight 30-28 decision over Ohio last week as home underdogs. Gus Ragland connected on 20-of-32 passes for 199 yards and one TD without a pick against the Bobcats. Alonzo Smith ran for 94 yards and two TDs on 29 attempts, while Kenny Young turned 15 touches into 105 all-purpose yards and one TD.

-- Miami has lost three of its five road games outright, but it has gone 3-2 versus the number. The RedHawks are 2-2 ATS in four games as road underdogs this year, 15-9 ATS in 24 such instances during Chuck Martin’s five-year tenure.

-- Ragland, the senior QB, has enjoyed an outstanding career. He has started 26 games and posted a 55/11 TD-INT. Ragland has 864 career rushing yards and 12 TDs. In Miami’s past four games, Ragland has thrown seven TD passes without being picked off. After the RedHawks started 0-3, Ragland has led his team to a 6-1 spread record while throwing 13 TD passes compared to merely one interception. His senior could’ve been better if not for the season-ending loss of senior WR James Gardner, who was a third-team All-MAC selection in 2016 and a first-team All-MAC choice last season. Gardner went down in a 26-3 loss at Minnesota in Week 3. He had 12 receptions for 157 yards at that point.

-- Smith has rushed for 499 yards and six TD with a 4.8 YPC average. Young has 296 rushing yards and four TDs while averaging 6.6 YPC. Ragland has run for 196 yards and five TDs.

-- Jack Sorenson has a team-best 43 receptions for 629 yards and two TDs, and Young has caught 41 balls for 365 yards and four TDs.

-- Miami will be without three starters on defense, including senior NT Nate Trawick, senior LB Junior McMullen and senior DB De’Andre Montgomery. Another senior starter, Deondre Daniels, has missed five consecutive games and is ‘questionable’ at NIU.

-- Miami has lost three one-possession games, including a 40-39 home loss to Western Michigan and a 31-30 overtime loss at Army.

-- NIU has been victorious in seven of the past eight head-to-head meetings between these MAC adversaries, but the RedHawks have covered the spread at a 5-1 ATS clip in the last six encounters. They were double-digit underdogs in each of those instances. Miami’s five straight covers ended last year when NIU won by a 45-12 count in Oxford as a 17.5-point road ‘chalk.’ -- The ‘under’ is 8-2 overall for the Huskies, 4-0 in its home games. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 42.1 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for Miami, 4-1 in its five road assignments. The RedHawks have seen their contests average combined scores of 56.0 PPG.

-- ESPNU will have the broadcast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Duke’s second-leading tackler Dylan Singleton underwent season-ending ankle surgery this past Sunday after sustaining a fracture in last week’s 42-35 home win over UNC. The Blue Devils, who are big underdogs Saturday at Clemson, have won outright in all four of their games as road ‘dogs this year. They’ve won at Northwestern, at Baylor, at Georgia Tech and at Miami.

-- Maryland QB Kasim Hill (9/4 TD-INT) tore his ACL last week for the second time in 14 months. He had started all 10 games for the Terrapins, who will turn to Tyrrell Pigrome as their starter when they host Ohio State.

-- According to a report from ABC’s affiliate in Boulder, fifth-year Colorado head coach Mike MacIntyre will be fired at season’s end. The Buffaloes’ AD denied the report on Tuesday afternoon. There are already job openings at Bowling Green, Kansas, Louisville and Maryland. I think Alabama OC Mike Locksley will get the Maryland gig. I doubt Purdue’s Jeff Brohm would turn down his alma mater, Louisville, but he does have Purdue on the rise and a superstar in true freshman Rondale Moore to build around for at least two more seasons. If Brohm passes on the U of L gig, the school might go back after Charlie Strong at USF. Todd Graham and Les Miles have expressed interest in the KU job (talk about desperation mode!).

-- Virginia Tech junior DE Houshon Gaines will miss the rest of the season due to a torn ACL. Gaines had recorded a team-high 4.5 sacks.

-- Georgia Tech has won five of its past six games both SU and ATS. The Yellow Jackets, who lost outright to their first three FBS foes and started 0-4 ATS, will welcome Virginia to The Flats in Midtown Atlanta on Saturday.

-- South Carolina senior LB Bryson Allen-Williams is out for the last three games of the regular season after undergoing ankle surgery. The Gamecocks are hopeful that he might be able to return for a bowl game.

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 14
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BUFF at OHIO 07:00 PM
BUFF +2.5
U 66.0

M-OH at NIU 08:00 PM
M-OH +6.5
O 48.0

[StarDust Bum]

Ohio upsets Buffalo in MACtion
November 14, 2018
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ATHENS, Ohio (AP) Nathan Rourke threw for three touchdowns and rushed for another, A.J. Ouellette had 196 yards rushing and three total scores, and Ohio upset Buffalo 52-17 on Wednesday night.

Ohio (7-4, 5-2 Mid-American Conference) needs to beat Akron next week and have Buffalo (9-2, 6-1) lose at Bowling Green to clinch the MAC East Division. Buffalo was closing in on a Top 25 ranking after receiving 29 votes in The Associated Press poll.

Rourke completed 17 passes for 209 yards and carried it seven times for 77 yards. Ouellette rushed it 26 times with two scores and made two grabs for 16 yards and a TD. The Bobcats scored 31 unanswered points in the first half before Buffalo made a 40-yard field goal as time expired.

Ohio won the turnover battle, 5-1, moving into a tie for fourth in the FBS with 24 takeaways this season.

Tyree Jackson, who was intercepted twice, carried it three times for 70 yards and a score.

*********************

MIAMI-OHIO 13, N.ILL. 7

[StarDust Bum]

November's Cbb Opinions Record and Best Bets:

DATE .......W-L-T......... % UNITS

11/14/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
11/10/2018 28-29-0 49.12% -19.50
11/09/2018 3-1-0 100.00% +10.00
11/08/2018 0-5-0 0.00% -27.50
11/07/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
11/06/2018 29-22-3 56.86% +24.00

Totals..............63-62-3.....50.40%......-25.50

DATE......................ATS.............UNITS... .............O/U............UNITS............TOTAL

11/14/2018............1 - 1............-0.50.................0 - 2............-11.00.........-11.50
11/10/2018...........10 - 13.........-21.50................3 - 2............+4.00..........-17.50
11/09/2018............1 - 1............-0.50.................2 - 0............+10.00........+9.50
11/08/2018............0 - 3............-16.50...............0 - 2.............-11.00.........-27.50
11/07/2018............1 - 0............+5.00................2 - 1............+4.50..........+9.50
11/06/2018............6 - 5............+2.50................1 - 6............-11.50...........-9.00

Totals.................19 - 23.............-31.50...............8 - 13...........-15.00..........-46.50

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s 6-pack

Odds to make the NFL playoffs this season:

Chicago Bears -350 (75.2%)

Carolina Panthers -260 (68.4%)

Baltimore Ravens +200 (31.6%)

Cincinnati Bengals +200 (31.6%)

Dallas Cowboys +200 (31.6%)

Atlanta Falcons +300 (23.8%)

Quote of the Day
“Nobody ever talks about Kevin’s free agency. It doesn’t bother any of us. This is the NBA. There are guys that are either under contract or are upcoming free agents. It’s the business. We are focused on this year. I didn’t think anybody in our locker room or anyone on our coaching staff thinks twice about Kevin’s free agency this summer. That’s next summer. We are coaching this year and we are playing this year.”
Steve Kerr

Thursday’s quiz
Portland Trailblazers have excellent guards, Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum; where did they play their college basketball?

Wednesday’s quiz
LSU’s basketball arena is named after the late Pete Maravich.

Tuesday’s quiz
In the movie Hoosiers, the climactic basketball scenes were shot in Butler’s Hinkle Fieldhouse.


**********************


Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) Lot of college basketball games in November are awful; mismatches and teams just scheduling easy wins, but Tuesday I was highly entertained by two excellent games.

Memphis-LSU was great entertainment; Penny Hardaway will build a power with the Tigers, and LSU has a strong young team, also. Both teams played fast and played well.

Georgetown-Illinois was fun to watch; Illini PG got a concussion during the afternoon walk-thru and didn’t play, which brings up a pet peeve of mine.

12) Some coaches are insane; they have these “walk-thrus” on game day but there are guys who turn them into practices— put it this way, you can’t get a concussion while walking. Having a practice on game day takes energy away from the game, which is all that matters. Getting your point guard hurt during a practice on game day is bleeping stupid.

Patrick Ewing’s team has upgraded its talent in his second year on the job, but they got a gift here when the other team’s point guard got hurt.

11) Draymond Green’s one-game suspension cost him $120,000, which is pocket change to Green, but the public nature of it makes it way more significant than that. Green has been the heart of this Warrior dynasty; the most important player isn’t always the best player.

10) Chiefs-Rams line is now 3.5, moving up from 2 or 2.5 when game was scheduled to be played in Mexico City. Total doesn’t seem to have moved, staying at 63.5, the highest NFL total ever.

9) Michigan 73, Villanova 46— Some alum gave Villanova so much money they named their gym after him, then they had FS1 interview him during the game. Too bad he couldn’t play; Michigan avenged (somewhat) their loss to Villanova in the national title game last April.

This game was 44-17 at halftime. Wow.

8) SEC decided to make Nashville the permanent home of its conference basketball tourney, signing a deal to keep the event in Music City thru 2035.

7) IUPUI 76, Boston College 69— Jaguars from the Horizon League were 16-point underdogs; a 6-3 guard named Camron Justice torched the Eagles for 29 points.

6) Magic 111, 76ers 106— Philly led by 16 early in 4th quarter, losing Jimmy Butler’s debut with the 76ers. Orlando is 7-8 and appears to be an improved team- their last winning season was seven years ago.

5) Timberwolves 107, Pelicans 100— Minnesota’s first game with Saric/Covington; from this point on, their record will be measured against Philly, because of the big trade.

4) Pistons 106, Raptors 104— Reggie Bullock scored on an out-of-bounds play at the buzzer as Dwane Casey won his return to Toronto after the Raptors fired him last spring, despite a regular season record of 320-238 (21-30 in playoffs).

3) Radford 63, Notre Dame 60— Not as big an upset as we’d think; Radford won the Big South LY, won a play-in game, then lost to Villanova in NCAA’s. Highlanders were only a 12.5-point underdog; they’re in top 20 nationally in experience, top 50 in minutes continuity and they play a slow tempo, so they’re hard to guard.

2) Singer Billy Idol became a US citizen this week; good to see people who are so happy when they become citizens. This country was built by immigrants, something we shouldn’t forget.

1) NFL flexed the Steelers-Raiders game out of the Sunday night slot on December 9 (Week 14) and instead will show Rams-Bears on NBC. Should be nice and balmy in Chicago for a night game on December 9th. Do they think of the fans in Chicago who pay to go to these games?

[StarDust Bum]

WVU at Oklahoma State
November 14, 2018
By BetDSI

By Tom Wilkinson

College Football Betting Preview – West Virginia at Oklahoma State

The West Virginia Mountaineers will look to win their fourth straight game, as they visit the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday on ABC. The Mountaineers come into this game ranked No. 7 in the country and they have a good chance to play in a New Year’s Day bowl. They do have a dangerous game on Saturday against a potent Oklahoma State offense. Let’s look at this matchup and college football picks.

Date and Time: Saturday, November 17, 2018, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
College Football Odds at BetDSI: West Virginia -5.5, O/U 71
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State TV Coverage: ABC

The Mountaineers are coming off a rout over TCU last week, as they rolled by a score of 47-10. West Virginia has outgained all but one of their opponents this season and last week it was massive, as they outgained TUC 535-222. The Mountaineers are 6-1 in the Big 12 and can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game if they win on Saturday and Iowa State loses to Texas.

West Virginia is 2-1-1 ATS on the road, with two games going over and two going under. The Mountaineers are averaging almost 41 points per game and giving up about 21 points per contest.

The Cowboys are coming off a very difficult loss last week, as they were outscored 48-47 by Oklahoma. It could be tough for the Cowboys to get over that defeat. Oklahoma State is 5-5 on the season and needs to win one of their remaining two games to become bowl eligible.

Oklahoma State is 3-3 ATS at home this season, with four games going over and two going under. They are scoring about 39 points per game and giving up nearly 32 points per contest.

Key Numbers

Keep an eye on the halftime score in this game, as Oklahoma State has won 20 of their last 21 games when leading at the half. As is the case with many teams, when Oklahoma State wins the turnover battle they normally win. They have won 58 of their last 63 games when winning the turnover battle.

This will be the 10th meeting between OSU and West Virginia. Oklahoma State leads the series 5-4, with the teams splitting their four meetings in Stillwater. West Virginia won the last meeting in Stillwater by a score of 37-20.

Key Stats

The Cowboys won against West Virginia last season by a score of 50-39. The Mountaineers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Looking at the total, the Over is 4-1 in the Mountaineers last 5 games on fieldturf. The Over is 9-3 in the Cowboys last 12 conference games. The Over is 74-34-2 in the Cowboys last 110 home games.

West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State Picks

The question in this game is how will last week’s loss to Oklahoma affect the Cowboys? Oklahoma State is a very good offensive team but a very bad defensive team. Having a bad defense is not the way to beat West Virginia, as they can put up a ton of points in a hurry. West Virginia has one of the top quarterbacks in the country in Will Grier and the Mountaineers should have a field day against a poor Oklahoma State secondary.

West Virginia is 5th in the country in passing yards per game, while Oklahoma State ranks 100th in passing yards allowed per game. It is hard to see any scenario in which the Oklahoma State defense slows down West Virginia. I will lay the points and take the Mountaineers.

I know that the total on this game is 71, but this should be a very high scoring game. The teams combined for 89 points last season and I see no reason this year’s game won’t be just as high scoring, so I will also play this game over the total.

West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State Pick: West Virginia -5.5 and Over 71 at BetDSI
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State Score Prediction: West Virginia 45, Oklahoma State 34

[StarDust Bum]

Week 12 Upset Alerts
November 14, 2018
By Sportsbetting.ag

Week 12 Upset Alerts

After going 1-2 ATS with these underdogs in Week 10, I was able to flip the script to a 2-1 ATS record last week, including an outright winner with the Tennessee Volunteers. Tennessee took advantage of a Kentucky team that was still recovering from their disappointing loss to Georgia the week prior, and at 5-5 SU with two games remaining, the Volunteers have a shot at making a bowl game in 2018.

Rutgers covering their big number (barely) was the other winner on the card, with Auburn coming up one score short in their matchup with Georgia. The Bulldogs were impressive in that win, but Georgia is still not a team I'd be overly thrilled about backing the rest of the regular season because motivation is still going to be a bit of a concern until that SEC Championship game arrives.

It's on to Week 12 though and on the whole it feels like the calm before the storm as there really isn't a handful of marquee games featuring the top teams to discuss. Fans in Syracuse and UCF might disagree given the contests their two programs have on Saturday, but this week's underdogs are coming more from those peripheral games featuring teams either in good/bad spots or simply trying to gain bowl eligibility.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 range

YTD: 4-8 SU; 4-8 ATS

Wake Forest +7 vs Pittsburgh

The ACC Coastal division has been wild all year long, but with just a few weeks remaining in the year, it's the Pittsburgh Panthers that currently sit in the driver's seat. Pitt has just a single conference loss this year, beating Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech in the last three weeks. The Panthers closed as underdogs in the former two contests, but after they put up a 52-22 beating as FG favorites against Virginia Tech last week, betting markets have finally started to take notice. The Panthers have their final cross-division conference game this week as they visit Wake, and it's hard not to like the home side in this spot.

Wake is coming off a huge upset (27-23 win as +19-point underdogs) over NC State a week ago, but that was also a Thursday game, so there is a few extra days of rest favoring them this week. Normally, backing a squad off such a big upset is tough to do, especially since Wake has been awful defensively for the majority of the campaign, but that win last week had to give the Demon Deacons a renewed sense of belief in how successful this year could be. At 5-5 SU now, all it takes is one more win for Wake Forest to be bowl-bound, and in their final home game of the year, I do expect them to show up.

Knocks against Wake in this spot, outside of their suspect defense this year, will start with their 2-4 SU record at home. However, when those four home losses have come against Syracuse, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Boston College – all four teams currently ranked in Top 25 and two in Top 4 – maybe we throw out that home record for Wake as support for looking to fade. Pittsburgh may be atop the Coastal division right now, but they are nowhere near the same class of those four opponents, and Wake's offense is more than capable of making this a tight game throughout.

With Pitt being on a 0-3-1 ATS run after a win of 20+ points, the chaos in the ACC Coastal may be far from done if Wake pulls off the outright upset this week.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range

YTD: 1-10 SU; 5-6 ATS

Illinois +14.5 vs Iowa

The Iowa Hawkeyes have picked the wrong time of year to start playing their worst football, as they come into this week's matchup with the Illini having lost three in a row SU and ATS. Last week's home loss as a double-digit favorite against Northwestern was especially hard to stomach as they were gashed on the ground all day long and subsequently gave Northwestern the Big 10 West division title in the process. Now at 6-4 SU and sliding out of the Top 25 rankings, do you really want to trust that Iowa can be interested enough to go out on the road and win a game by more than two TD's? I know I sure can't, especially when Illiniois is hoping to win out to become bowl eligible themselves.

Illinois has had a rough go of it in Big 10 play this year as they've given up 40+ to all conference rivals they've seen except Rutgers and Minnesota. That's not even good by any metric, but a slow, methodical offense like the Hawkeyes have isn't the worst matchup for the Illini to potentially see some improvement there. It's not like Illinois hasn't been a bad defensive team for years, and although Iowa is 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in this game the past four seasons, three of those four years have seen Iowa finish with no more than 30 points scored. Illinois' attack has topped the 30-point barrier in three straight weeks, and while Iowa's defense will be the best of the bunch they've faced in that span, motivation and focus could be a concern there.

Looking at the 'over' may be another way to bet this game, but I'd rather take the points with Illinois in this spot as they try to push towards their first bowl game in the Lovie Smith era, and first bowl game since 2014. Offensively, if the Illini can get in a groove early, the outright upset will be in play, and with the home side on a 8-3 ATS run in the last 11 games between these programs, I'll take all these points on a spread that should be much closer to -10 than -14.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range

YTD: 10-1 ATS

Texas State +23.5 vs Troy

As has been the case with many of the plays on these large underdogs all year, this week's play is more of case where I'm fading the favorite, rather than coming up with multiple reasons why to back the underdog. And this week, the Troy Trojans couldn't really be in a worse spot.

At 8-2 SU and atop the Sun Belt East, Troy is well on their way to an appearance in the conference championship game. The Trojans put themselves in the driver's seat by knocking off a very tough Georgia Southern team on the road a week ago to eliminate them from contention, but there is still one more rival the Trojans have to get through before they can book that date in the conference championship: Appalachian State.

Now, I'm sure many of you know where I'm going next, as the Trojans have to visit App State a week from now in a game that will decide the division crown. Coming off that Georgia Southern game, and with App State on deck, this week's home finale against a sub-par Texas State game is about as big of a sandwich spot as it gets for the Trojans to deal with. They've probably already got one eye on that meeting with App State, and considering they hung 62 on the Bobcats in this game a year ago (62-9 win), Troy's just looking to get the outright W and remain as healthy as can be.

Troy may be 7-2-1 ATS on the year, but the reverse is true in that their last 10 home games against a losing road team has produced a 2-7-1 ATS mark. Texas State has also been playing great ATS football of late with a 5-2 ATS run over their last seven outings, including seeing a 4-0 ATS run get snapped against the aforementioned App State bunch a week ago. With the Bobcats on a 4-1 ATS run after a loss by 20+, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four away from home, I expect them to hang around long enough to get this ATS win against a distracted Troy squad this week.

[StarDust Bum]

College Football Picks: UCF and race to be top G5 champion
November 14, 2018
By The Associated Press

With limited intrigue among the Power Five conference playoff contenders this week, No. 11 UCF gets the spotlight as it puts the nation's longest winning streak on the line against No. 19 Cincinnati.

The Knights and Bearcats are the prime-time game on Saturday and ESPN's ''College GameDay'' rolls into Orlando, Florida, for the first time. The Knights' streak is 22 and pushing toward rare air in college football. There have been 26 streaks of 25 straight victories in major college football history.

While UCF fans probably are not going to get the recognition and ranking they believe they deserve from the College Football Playoff selection committee, the Knights are lined up for another marquee bowl bid and a shot to take down a highly ranked Power Five team - like they did last season against Auburn in the Peach Bowl.

Slip up against Cincinnati and the American Athletic Conference East Division becomes muddled, as well as the race for the coveted spot in the New Year's Six bowls that goes to the highest ranked conference champion from outside the Power Five leagues.

The latest CFP rankings had Utah State 23rd, Cincinnati 24th and Boise State 25th. The Aggies and Broncos play next week in a game likely to decide the Mountain West's Mountain Division. If the Mountain West and American teams pick each other off, keep tabs on Buffalo of the Mid-American Conference and UAB of Conference USA, both checking in at 9-1. The Blazers could barge into the New Year's Six discussions by upsetting Texas A&M.

The picks (Note: It is SE-Siesta weekend with several highly ranked Southeastern Conference teams taking a break against 40-plus-point underdogs. We'll pass on those games):

FRIDAY

No. 23 Boise State (minus 20+) at New Mexico

Lobos have given the Broncos some headaches with their triple-option in recent years but managed only one victory ... BOISE STATE 35-17.

SATURDAY

Duke (plus 28) at No. 2 Clemson

Blue Devils QB Daniel Jones has the attention of NFL scouts in what could be a light crop of college quarterbacks ... CLEMSON 38-13.

No. 3 Notre Dame (minus 10) vs. No. 12 Syracuse in New York City

Irish will have QB Ian Book back, but it's RB Dexter Williams who should thrive against the Orange's shaky run D ... NOTRE DAME 35-21.

Indiana (plus 28+) at No. 4 Michigan

Wolverines have gone to OT with the Hoosiers two of the last three seasons ... MICHIGAN 45-10.

Kansas (plus 36) at No. 6 Oklahoma

Sooners have won 13 straight against the Jayhawks, and it has been particularly lopsided lately; average score 51-5 last four seasons ... OKLAHOMA 51-5.

No. 7 West Virginia (minus 4+) at Oklahoma State

Cowboys get another shot to play spoiler against a Big 12 playoff contender ... WEST VIRGINIA 42-35.

No. 8 Ohio State (minus 14+) at Maryland

Terps have lost QB Kasim Hill to a knee injury ... OHIO STATE 31-14.

Arizona (plus 9+) at No. 9 Washington State

Minshew Mustache Mania ... WASHINGTON STATE 35-21, BEST BET.

No. 19 Cincinnati (plus 7+) at No. 11 UCF

Bearcats have allowed more than 400 yards just once this season; Knights have not been held under 400 since 2016 bowl game ... UCF 34-24.

No. 18 Iowa State (plus 3) at No. 13 Texas

In six games since taking over as Cyclones quarterback, freshman Brock Purdy has put up numbers comparable to West Virginia's Will Grier (13 touchdowns, two INTs, 192.04 efficiency rating) ... IOWA STATE 31-28, UPSET SPECIAL.

No. 14 Utah State (minus 27) at Colorado State

Aggies lead the nation in scoring at 51.3 points per game ... UTAH STATE 55-24.

No. 16 Penn State (minus 27) at Rutgers

Scarlet Knights are only Power Five team to score fewer than 20 touchdowns this season (17) ... PENN STATE 38-7.

Oregon State (plus 32+) at No. 17 Washington

Three times this season the Pac-12's offensive player of the week was facing Oregon State ... WASHINGTON 56-21.

Middle Tennessee (plus 16) at No. 20 Kentucky

Wildcats looking to snap a five-game streak of scoring 17 points or fewer ... KENTUCKY 28-14.

No. 21 Utah (minus 7) at Colorado

Buffs' five-game slide making things slippery for coach Mike MacIntyre ... UTAH 31-21.

No. 22 Boston College (minus 1+) at Florida State

The question for the Seminoles right now is how much fight do they have left? ... BOSTON COLLEGE 27-21.

No. 24 Northwestern (minus 2+) at Minnesota

Wildcats do one thing at an elite level, averaging 3.1 penalties per game and 28.5 penalty yards, both tops in the nation ... MINNESOTA 24-21.

Arkansas (plus 20+) at No. 25 Mississippi State

In six victories, Bulldogs are averaging 7.7 yards per play; In four losses, 3.6 ... MISSISSIPPI STATE 35-13.

TWITTER REQUESTS

UAB (plus 16+) at Texas A&M - (at)DCAbloob

Aggies were hoping to get a gimme. Instead, Blazers show up allowing 13.2 points per game ... TEXAS A&M 24-14.

Missouri (minus 6) at Tennessee - (at)horsehead81

Vols need one more victory for bowl eligibility in Year 1 under coach Jeremy Pruitt ... MISSOURI 28-21.

Michigan State (minus 2) at Nebraska - (at)saunders45

Cornhuskers have gained 450 or more yards in seven straight games, a school record ... NEBRASKA 28-27.

Southern California (minus 3+) at UCLA - (at)PhillyM31

Losing to the worst UCLA team in at least 30 years would be a real problem for USC coach Clay Helton, who already has enough of them ... USC 24-17.

Pitt (minus 6) at Wake Forest - (at)MichaelTPittard

Panthers clinch the ACC Coastal with a victory. Yes, really! ... PITT 35-31.

---

Last week: 20-6 straight; 8-16-2 against the spread.

Season: 179-67 straight; 122-120-3 against the spread.

Upset specials: 6-5 (straight up).

Best bets: 3-6 (against the spread).

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Best Bets
November 14, 2018
By BetDSI

College Football Best Bets – Week 12

Last week's best bet piece was the third straight week we were able to get out the brooms as Oklahoma State and Ohio State easily covered their respective numbers to sweep the board yet again.

That “Bedlam” matchup played out exactly as expected as it really was decided by who had the ball last, with a failed two-point conversion by the Cowboys deciding the game in OK State's one-point loss. I applaud the gumption HC Mike Gundy had in going for two to try and win the game right then and there, as the usual results-oriented media questioned the decision.

Big underdogs should always be going for two in that scenario regardless of the outcome, because we all know had OK State converted (it was a great play call, just a poor throw), Gundy would be painted in a much different light by those same media members. It is what it is though, and I'll gladly take the easy ATS win and move on to this week.

This week it's all about the American Athletic Conference as programs in this Group of 5 section look to push onward and upward towards more respect. UCF's push towards consideration for the CFB Playoff will always be the headline in that regard, but it's not like others like Temple, Cincinnati, SMU, and Houston aren't capable of making noise as well in terms of significant bowl game appearances.

So with all that in mind, let's get right to this week's plays as we hope to be able to dust off those brooms yet again this time next week.

Best Bet #1: East Carolina -17

By no means is this ECU/UConn game a matchup of teams that are capable of “making noise” within the AAC as the combined record between the two of them is a dismal 3-16 SU. Both come into this game on extended losing streaks; Connecticut is on a 0-7 SU (2-4-1 ATS) run and ECU is on a 0-5 SU (1-4 ATS) run, so it's not like either side instills that much confidence to many.

But oddsmakers put out such a big spread for a reason, and predictably, the majority of action as already come on the underdog as it's the easy thing to say that this is too many points for East Carolina to lay.

VegasInsider.com's current betting percentage numbers have Connecticut getting 80%+ of the support this week, as the Huskies did show some spunk in their 62-50 loss vs SMU a week ago. However, this is still a Huskies team that allows 49.3 points per game this year and East Carolina's strength is on offense. ECU's attack can put up points in bunches against lesser opponents, and Connecticut is arguably the worst team in all of college football this year.

ECU's home numbers don't look all that impressive – another supporting piece of evidence for those taking the points with Connecticut – but they've also had to deal with the best of the best in their conference while at home. ECU has hosted (and lost) to Houston, UCF, and Memphis in each of their last three home games, and with the relatively poor defense they've got themselves, the Pirates really didn't have a chance in those games. I mean, ECU's best point spread in those contests was +11, so it's not like they were really expected to have a shot at significant upsets there.

And for all the concerns about ECU's defense not being great (they aren't), the Huskies offense is really quite bad despite what we saw from them a week ago. Connecticut averages just 18.2 pts/game away from home this year and their defensive splits away from home sit at 51 pts allowed/game.

Based on that alone, oddsmakers had to come out with a number this large because in relative terms, how can you not give a team like Connecticut three-plus scores when statistically they lose by an average of 33 points a game every time they aren't on their own field? And while last year's game up in Connecticut was close, the last time these two played when ECU was at home (2016), it was a 41-3 whitewashing for the Pirates.

I believe we get a similar result this week, as East Carolina looks to send off their seniors with a big win in their final home game, as some sort of consolation for sticking with this struggling program the past four years. In a season that's not been fun, putting a big time beating on a poor opponent is a decent way to go out for the Pirates this year.

With the Huskies in that dreaded public underdog role and a 15-34-2 ATS run going on the road the past handful of seasons, this game becomes another black mark on what's been a horrible year for the Huskies.

Because when it all comes down to it, yes, Connecticut scored 50 a week ago, but do you really want to trust this team to put together two solid efforts when they haven't all year?

Best Bet #2: UCF -7

Going from arguably the worst game in the AAC this Saturday to the best, as 9-1 SU Cincinnati travels to UCF to try and end UCF's 22-game win streak. But there are more similarities between this game and the ECU/UConn game than many may think.

For one, we've got another “public underdog” here as the Bearcats are getting a strong majority of the support (85%+). Cincinnati has looked great all year in getting to 9-1 SU, but they have not been nearly as good on the road (outside of blasting aforementioned Connecticut 49-7). The Bearcats last two contests in hostile territory both needed extra time to get resolved (Cincy went 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS), and those came against Temple and SMU. UCF's results against those two teams were wins by 12 and 28 points respectively (2-0 ATS), so this line is rather short in my opinion.

Now, part of the reason the Knights are only laying a TD here is because statistically on defense they don't look great, and that ATS win against Temple was rather lucky after allowing 700+ yards. The pressures of remaining undefeated can also find there way into being incorporated into a line, and following up that Temple game with a ho-hum performance against a bad Navy program hasn't put UCF in the best light if you were to ask most bettors.

Yet, at the same time, UCF hasn't won a home game by fewer than 11 points this year, and haven't won a home game by fewer than seven points during this entire 22-game winning streak. Once again, there appears to be a disconnect between perception and reality – after all many get rubbed the wrong way by UCF's boastful claims about being “National Champions” - but I'll gladly take advantage of that scenario.

Don't get me wrong, Cincinnati's season has been a great one for the Bearcats program, but you can't argue it was expected. The Bearcats opened up the year as 14-point road underdogs against a UCLA team that everyone knew would be bad this year, and have seen their confidence grow ever since.

But they haven't faced anyone that can put up points in bunches like UCF can, and of the Bearcats nine SU victories this year, only two of those opponents have a winning record at the moment (USF and Ohio). This game ends up being a rude wake-up call for Bearcats, as that record based of a very soft schedule gets easily exposed.

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Report - Week 12
November 14, 2018
By ASA

2018 BIG 10 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 4-6 2-5 4-6 6-4
Indiana 5-5 2-5 4-6 7-3
Iowa 6-4 3-4 6-4 6-4
Maryland 5-5 3-4 5-5 5-5
Michigan 9-1 7-0 6-4 6-4
Michigan State 6-4 4-3 4-6 4-6
Minnesota 5-5 2-5 6-4 6-4
Nebraska 3-7 2-5 4-5-1 6-4
Northwestern 6-4 6-1 5-3-2 5-5
Ohio State 9-1 6-1 4-6 4-6
Penn State 7-3 4-3 6-4 7-3
Purdue 5-5 4-3 6-4 5-5
Rutgers 1-9 0-7 5-5 4-6
Wisconsin 6-4 4-3 2-8 5-5

Games scheduled for Saturday, Nov. 17

Ohio State (-14.5) at Maryland - (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

OHIO STATE – A win on Saturday @ Maryland and the Buckeyes will set up a winner take all in the Big Ten East meeting with Michigan in the regular season finale. After struggling mightily the last 2 games, the Buckeye defense was locked in last Saturday holding MSU to just barely over 4 YPP and keeping Sparty out of the endzone in their 26-6 win. The offense was far from perfect as they only averaged just over 4 YPP and were held to 2.7 YPC on the ground. They got some help from MSU as the Spartans gave the Bucks a TD on a fumble recovery and added 2 more on a safety. The once red hot QB Dwayne Haskins who completed over 70% of his passes in 5 of his first 7 games, hit on just 61% on Saturday after completing just 56% vs Nebraska a week earlier. Special teams played a huge roll on Saturday as punter Drue Chrisman pinned MSU inside their own 6-yard line 5 times. That was after Chrisman shanked his first punt for just 4-yards setting up the Spartans as the Buckeye 35-yard line which MSU was unable to take advantage of an actually had to punt 4 plays later. Ohio State (-4) covered the spread for the first time since September 22nd. They had lost 5 straight to the number entering their game in East Lansing. This number opened -17 and has dropped nearly 3 points.

MARYLAND – Maryland’s quest to become bowl eligible was put on hold with their 34-32 loss @ Indiana. This line opened with IU favored by 3 and dropped all the way to 1 by game time meaning the Hoosiers covered for those who played the game late. The loss dropped the Terps to 5-5 on the season meaning they’ll either need to beat Ohio State this weekend at home or win @ Penn State the following week to qualify for the post-season. If you didn’t know the score but happened to glance at the stat sheet, you would have sworn Maryland won the game. They put up 542 yards to just 374 for IU. The Terps also outrushed the Hoosiers by a whopping 222 yards and had a 2 to 1 time of possession edge. The Maryland defense held Indiana scoreless in the first quarter but the Hoosiers exploded for 21 points in a 4:30 minute span early in the 2nd quarter to take a 21-6 lead. Two of those TD’s came directly after Maryland turnovers and 20 of the IU 34 points were scored as a direct result of Terp giveaways (4 turnovers). Maryland had some key injuries in the loss as starting QB Kasim Hill appeared to injure his leg the in 2nd quarter and did not play in the 2nd half. Top RB Ty Johnson also left in the first half with an undisclosed injury and did not come back.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – OSU was a 30-point home favorite in this match up last year and routed the Terps 62-14 outgaining them 584 to 66. Yes you read that correctly. The Buckeyes have dominated all 4 match ups since Maryland joined the Big Ten winning by a combined score of 225-69 (or an average score of 56-17). All 4 of those Buckeye wins have come by at least 21 points. Going all the way back to 1980, OSU is a money making 33-23 ATS as a road favorite of 2 TD’s or more.

Michigan State (-2.5) at Nebraska - (FOX, 12:00 p.m. ET)

MICHIGAN STATE – Sparty is heading into this game off a 26-6 home loss to Ohio State. The game was much closer than the 20-point margin however as the Buckeyes scored a TD on a fumble and recorded a safety. OSU was able to capitalize on 3 MSU turnovers which they turned into 17 of their 26 points. The Bucks led just 9-6 entering the fourth quarter and outscored the Spartans 17-0 in the final frame. Ohio State was +74 in total yardage, however they also ran 84 offensive plays to just 66 for Sparty. Thus, on a YPP basis this game was almost dead even. OSU led 7-3 at halftime but pinned the Spartan offense deep on nearly every possession in the 2nd half. Michigan State had 8 offensive possession in the 2nd half and those drives started at their own 5, 6, 3, 1, 2, 25, 25, 13, & 7 yard lines. Head coach Mark Dantonio in an effort to try and spark his offense decided to use two QB’s as Brian Lewerke and Rocky Lombardi split time under center. Neither was effective as they combined to complete just 18 passes on 48 attempts with 0 TD’s. MSU has now topped 24 points only once in conference play and that was their Big Ten opener way back on September 22nd when they put up 35 on Indiana. They may get a reprieve this weekend vs a Nebraska defense that everyone seems to score on.

NEBRASKA – The Husker offense just keeps rolling up huge numbers. They outscored Illinois last week 54-35 and put up a massive 606 yards in the process. It was the 7th consecutive game Nebraska has gained at least 450 yards. After losing their first 6 games of the season, the Cornhuskers have won 3 of their last 4 and are averaging 45 PPG in those 4 games. Their lone loss during that stretch was a 36-31 setback @ Ohio State, a game they led at halftime. The Illini were in a giving mood last week in Lincoln as they turned the ball over 5 times which led to 24 Husker points. The obvious problem remains Nebraska’s defense or lack thereof. It’s a good thing their offense is humming or this team would be in huge trouble. Last week they allowed Illinois shred them for 509 yards (almost 7 YPP) including 383 on the ground. The defense now ranks 107th nationally allowing 450 YPG & 103rd in scoring defense giving up 34 PPG. At 3-7, Nebraska cannot get to bowl eligible this year and this Saturday marks their home finale.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – These two haven’t met since 2015. They have met 8 times since 1994 with the Huskers 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS. The Huskers began the season 0-4 ATS in their first 4 games. Since then they are 4-0-1 ATS. Nebraska is 7-1 to the OVER in Big Ten play with their only UNDER coming at Ohio State (36-31 final – Total was set at 76). On the other sideline, MSU has gone UNDER the total in 5 straight games and they are a perfect 3-0 SU on the road in Big Ten play (wins @ Indiana, @ Penn St, @ Maryland).

Penn State (-28) at Rutgers - (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

PENN STATE – The Nittany Lions bounced back after being routed @ Michigan a week earlier by controlling Wisconsin 22-10 in Happy Valley last Saturday. Despite the win, PSU’s offense continues to look nothing like it did earlier in the season. After scoring 45, 51, 63, and 63 points their first four games, they have averaged just 22 PPG over their last 6 games. The level of defense they have faced has risen dramatically during the conference season as they have squared off against Michigan, OSU, Michigan State, and Iowa just to name a few. On top of that, their leader and QB Trace McSorely has not been 100% since the Iowa game on October 27th. They have been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games and are now laying a huge number on the road. The defense was solid last week vs a Wisconsin team that has been struggling offensively as well. The Badgers were forced to go with back up QB Jack Coan with Hornibrook in concussion protocol. PSU held them to just 60 yards passing and 4 of 17 on 3rd & 4th down. One continuing concern defensive was the rush defense. Despite the fact that the UW offense was basically one-dimensional, they still ran for over 200 yards in 5.6 YPC. They now rank 10th in the Big Ten (conference games) allowing 188 YPG on the ground.

RUTGERS – We’ve said this before but one thing we’ve noticed about this Rutgers team, is despite being 1-9, they haven’t quit. Last week they played Michigan toe to toe in the first quarter exiting the quarter with a 7-7 tie. They “only” trailed 21-7 at half which may not sound promising but let’s remember they were a 40 point underdog. The Knights gained nearly 140 yards in the first half alone which again may not seem like a big deal however, this Michigan defense had allowed 202 yards or fewer in 4 of their 6 conference games entering last week. The defense, which had been playing fairly well allowing 24 PPG their previous 6, simply ran out of gas in the 2nd half as the Wolverines pounded them with 40 rushing attempts. The problem continues to be an offense that simply can’t score. They have now been held to 17 points or less in all 9 games since their season opener when they put up 35 on Texas State. While they are just playing out the stretch, this is their home finale so we expect them to put up a fight before heading to Michigan State to close out the season.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Penn State won 35-6 at home last year but did not cover the 31-point spread. PSU has won all 4 games in this series since Rutgers entered the league with 3 of those wins coming by at least 25 points (the other was a 13-10 Nittany Lion win). The Lions have been a road favorite of -28 or more just 5 times since 1980 (3-2 ATS) with their most recent coming back in 2008. The UNDER has been a money maker in this series covering all 4 times with none of those 4 games coming within 2 TD’s of the posted total.

Northwestern (-2) at Minnesota - (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

NORTHWESTERN – The Cats led the Big Ten West heading into last week’s game vs Iowa and could potentially wrap that half of the conference up with a win. Despite leading the league they received very little respect from the oddsmakers as they were tabbed an 11 point dog @ Iowa. Northwestern took care of business winning 14-10 which clinched their spot in the Big Ten Championship game vs the winner of the Big Ten East, most likely Michigan or Ohio State. While the offense struggled to score the bright spot on that side of the ball would be their running game which has been non-existent for much of the year. The Wildcats rushed for 184 yards against a staunch Iowa defense. It was the 2nd straight Big Ten game where Northwestern topped 180 yards on the ground. While it may not sound like much, this is a team that top 100 yards rushing twice in their other eight games. That helps take some pressure off starting QB Clayton Thorson who was asked to pass way too much earlier in the season. The question with this game and moving forward is, how does this team respond now that they’ve locked up a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game? It’s conceivable if this team loses their final two games this week and at home vs rival Illinois next week, we could be looking at a 6-6 team in the conference championship as the Cats were 0-3 in the non-conference portion of their schedule.

MINNESOTA – What a difference a week makes. Minnesota hit a season low two weeks ago getting crushed 55-31 @ Illinois. They allowed 646 total yards and 383 on the ground vs the Illini. Fast forward one week and this team looked like a completely different defensive unit. Head coach PJ Fleck fired defensive coordinator Robb Smith early last week and apparently that was the spark they needed on that side of the ball. The Gophs pulled off a huge upset beating Purdue 41-10 as a 10.5 point dog. The defense shut down one of the most potent offensive attacks in the league holding the Boilermakers to 233 yards and just 88 on the ground, nearly a full 300 rushing yards less than they gave up just a week earlier. Hard to believe from a team that was allowing 43 PPG and over 500 YPG coming into last Saturday. Offensively they relied heavily on the run with 41 attempts for 265 yards. The Gophs only completed 11 passes in the game and stuck with Tanner Morgan under center even though previous starter Zack Annexstad was supposedly available. Now what looked like a lost season a few weeks ago for Minnesota can be extended to a bowl game with one more win either at home this week vs Northwestern or @ Wisconsin next Saturday.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – The home team has won the last 4 meetings in this series including last year when the Wildcats shutout the Gophers 39-0 as a 7-point favorite. This is just the 2nd time this season the Cats have been a road favorite. The first was an 18-15 win (no cover) as a 20-point favorite @ Rutgers. Minnesota has been a poor road team this year but at home they are 5-1 SU including wins over Fresno State, Indiana, and Purdue. The Gophers are 2-1 ATS as home dogs this year with outright wins over Indiana & Purdue. That makes Minnesota 10-3 ATS the last 13 times they’ve been getting points at home.

Iowa (-14.5) at Illinois - (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

IOWA – The Hawkeyes have now lost 3 straight after Saturday’s 14-10 setback versus Northwestern. The Cats entered as a double digit underdog and a chance to clinch the Big Ten West with a win. Neither team was able to accomplish anything offensively in the 1st half with Iowa finally cracking the scoreboard on a 46-yard field goal with just 56 seconds remaining in the half. Iowa had a chance to crack the scoreboard earlier in the half but they were shut out on downs at the Northwestern 34-yard line. The Cats offense crossed midfield only once in the first half and never really threatened. The Wildcats were able to put 2 TD’s on the board in the 2nd half and held on for the win as Iowa turned the ball over on each of their final 2 drives. While the Iowa offense struggled putting up only 333 yards, the defense got back on track after allowing 68 point in their last 2 games, they locked down the Northwestern offense to just 306 yards on 76 plays (4 YPP). Now officially out of the Big Ten West race after the loss, the Hawkeyes travel to Illinois on Saturday before hosting Nebraska on Thanksgiving weekend.

ILLINOIS – The Illini continue to run the heck out of the ball each and every weekend. After last Saturday’s 383 yard effort on the ground Illinois now ranks 8th nationally in rushing at 263 YPG. RB Reggie Corbin became the first Illinois RB to top 1,000 yards in a season since 2010. It may have come at a cost however as Corbin injured his foot in the first half and did not return. The offense has definitely held up its end of the bargain this season. The defense not so much. In their 7 Big Ten games they have allowed at least 40 points 5 times and have given up 60+ twice! The only conference teams not to score at least 40 on the Illini are Rutgers & Minnesota. They now rank 127th nationally in total defense and 120th in scoring defense. Even with the loss last weekend the Illini still have a lot to play for. A win here and next week @ Northwestern would make this team bowl eligible.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Iowa was a 16-point favorite at home last year and won this match up 45-16. However the Hawkeyes were actually outgained by 4 yards in that game. Iowa has dominated this series since the mid 90’s winning 12 of the last 15 meetings outright (9-6 ATS). Since 1980, the Hawkeyes have been a favorite of more than 10 points @ Illinois just 3 times. They are 0-3 ATS in those games. However, Iowa has been a fantastic road favorite as of late going 2-0 ATS in that role this year and 15-3 ATS in that spot dating back to 2011.

Wisconsin at Purdue (-4.5) - (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

WISCONSIN – This was a year we expected the Badger offense to carry or at least help out the defense. The defense has carried the load for years but they lost a bunch of contributors on that side of the ball. Now with some injuries piling up including starting NT Sagapolu done for the season, they really needed the offense to help them by putting points on the board. The offense had a ton of experience and production back from last year but has been a huge disappointment this year. They were held to just 10 points last week at Penn State in a 22-10 loss. They have done fine against the bad Big Ten defenses (Nebraska, Rutgers, and Illinois) but against Michigan, Penn State, and Northwestern they have put up just 13, 10, and 17 points respectively. Back up QB Jack Coan got his 2nd start last week for a concussion prone Alex Hornibrook and he struggled big time. He threw for just 60 yards with 2 interceptions. While the inexperienced Coan might be the answer at QB someday, Hornibrook, despite his faults, gives UW the best chance to win right now. He remains in concussion protocol and is questionable for Saturday’s game @ Purdue. They Wisconsin defense remains very young on the back end with a number of freshman playing key roles in the defensive backfield. The real problem has been their run defense which has been stellar for years. They are allowing 162 YPG (63rd nationally) after finishing in the top 5 nationally each of the last 3 years not allowing 100 YPG in any of those 3 seasons. The defense will have their hands full this weekend with a potent Purdue offense.

PURDUE – The Boilers continued their on again, off again play last weekend. After winning a huge home game vs Iowa a week earlier, Purdue completely laid an egg last week @ Minnesota. They were destroyed in Minneapolis last week 41-10 and outgained by 182 yards. That’s the same Minnesota team that lost @ Illinois 55-31 just a week earlier. Purdue has pulled this up & down situation numerous times this year including each of the last 4 Saturdays. They beat OSU at home scoring 49 points then lost @ Michigan State scoring only 13. They beat Iowa at home rolling up 38 points and then lost @ Minnesota scoring just 10. While they are improving, they obviously have not yet learned how to deal with short term success. The offense was held to season lows in scoring (10 points) and yardage (233 yards) vs a Minnesota defense that allowed 646 yards a week earlier @ Illinois. The Boilermaker pass defense is one of the worst in the Big Ten but their run defense has been improving drastically. That was until last Saturday when the Gophs lit them up for 265 yards on the ground. At 5-5, this becomes a huge home game for Purdue who still needs one win to get to bowl eligible. They would rather not have to head to arch rival Indiana having to win to keep their season going.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – The Badgers were favored by 17 at home last year and Purdue battled them tough with Wisky winning 17-9. That marked the 12th straight time that Wisconsin has beating Purdue outright (10-2 ATS). This is the first time since 2004 the Boilermakers have been tabbed a favorite in this series. Coming into this season Wisconsin was an incredible 20-2 SU their last 22 road games (17-5 ATS). However this season they are 1-3 both SU & ATS on the road.

Indiana at Michigan (-28.5) - (FS1, 4:00 p.m. ET)

INDIANA – Last week’s 34-32 home win over Maryland was huge for the IU team. A loss there and their bowl aspirations become almost impossible. Now at 5-5, they need one more win either this weekend vs Michigan or in the season finale versus arch rival Purdue. Despite the win the Hoosier were outplayed rather drastically getting outgained by 168 yards along with a time of possession of only 20:00 minutes (Maryland held it for 40:00). Indiana has now been outgained by at least 97 yards in 4 of their last 5 games. If it weren’t for 4 Terp turnovers leading to half of IU’s points (17) we aren’t talking about the Hoosiers potential bowl opportunities in front of them. The defense continued to struggle allowing 30+ points for the 6th time in 7 Big Ten games. They are now allowing 453 YPG on 6.3 YPP which ranks them ahead of only Illinois, Nebraska, and Minnesota in conference play. Offensively IU has now scored 28 or more in 3 straight but they’ll be hard pressed to get anywhere near that against a Wolverine defense has allowed 21 total points in their last 3 games combined.

MICHIGAN – The Wolverines are now one win away from setting up their all or nothing game vs Ohio State on Thanksgiving weekend. This team continues to dominate this league with an easy and expected 42-7 win over Rutgers. They didn’t cover the inflated number (-40) and despite their huge win the looked a little flat which was to be expected. Rutgers actually kept it close early as the score was tied 7-7 at the end of the first quarter. The Knights tallied 282 total yards which was actually nearly 100 yards more than Michigan was allowing in Big Ten play heading into the game. It was the second highest yardage total the Wolverine defense has allowed this conference season with only Wisconsin gaining more by a single yard (283). A bit of a head scratcher as Rutgers ranks dead last in the league in total offense a by a long ways (83 yards behind MSU who ranks 13th in total offense). For as much publicity as the Michigan defense gets, the offense has scored more than 40 points in 6 of their 10 games this season. The Wolverines point differential in Big Ten play is +179 which is nearly a full 100 points better than OSU who ranks 2nd in point differential at +85.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Michigan was favored by just 7 points last year @ Indiana and they are now laying more than 4 TD’s just one year later. In that game last season the Wolverines won and pushed the number winning by a final score of 27-20 in OT. Michigan is 29-1 SU in this series with the Hoosiers lone win during that span coming way back in 1987. Since 2000, there has been one game in this series decided by more than this number (4 TD’s) and that was a Michigan 34-3 win in 2006. Since 1983 IU has been an underdog of +28 or more 14 times and they are 10-4 ATS in those games.