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The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

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  • NFL Today, Week 9
    November 5, 2017


    SCOREBOARD

    Monday, Nov. 6


    Detroit at Green Bay, 8:30 p.m. EST. The NFC North rival Lions (3-4) and Packers (4-3) meet on Monday night looking to improve their offenses. While Detroit has moved the ball through the air behind Matthew Stafford, the Lions have struggled in the run game and inside the red zone. Green Bay is trying to get its passing attack back on track with backup Brett Hundley making his second start in place of injured quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

    ---

    STARS

    Passing


    - Jared Goff, Rams, set career highs with four touchdown throws and 311 yards passing in Los Angeles' 51-17 rout of the New York Giants.

    - Carson Wentz, Eagles, tossed four touchdown passes to give him an NFL-leading 23, and the Philadelphia Eagles routed the Denver Broncos 51-23.

    - Kirk Cousins, Redskins, drove Washington 70 yards in 35 seconds, capped by Rob Kelley's 1-yard touchdown run with less than a minute remaining to stun the Seattle Seahawks 17-14.

    - Jacoby Brissett, Colts, threw for 308 yards and two TDs in Indianapolis' 20-14 win at Houston.

    - Drew Brees, Saints, completed 81.2 percent of his passes (22 of 27) for 263 yards and two touchdowns in New Orleans' 30-10 victory over Tampa Bay.

    ---

    Rushing

    - Adrian Peterson, Cardinals, carried a career-high 37 times for 159 yards in Arizona's 20-10 victory over winless San Francisco.

    - Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, ran for 93 yards and a TD on 27 carries in Dallas' 28-17 win over Kansas City. Elliott's six-game suspension was placed on hold by a federal court, allowing him to play.

    - Jay Ajayi, Eagles, had 77 yards rushing and one score - a 46-yarder - in his Philadelphia debut, a 51-23 rout of Denver.

    - Todd Gurley, Rams, ran for two touchdowns to help Los Angeles roll past the New York Giants 51-17.

    - Corey Clement, Eagles, rushed for two scores and also caught a TD pass in Philadelphia's 51-23 win over Denver.

    - Rob Kelley, Redskins, had two TD runs, including a go-ahead 1-yard score in Washington's 17-14 comeback victory at Seattle.

    ---

    Receiving


    - T.Y. Hilton, Colts, had 175 yards receiving with two touchdowns to help Indianapolis halt a three-game skid with a 20-14 win at Houston.

    - Alshon Jeffery, Eagles, had touchdown catches of 32 and 4 yards in Philadelphia's 51-23 victory over Denver.

    - Marqise Lee, Jaguars, had eight receptions for 75 yards and a TD in Jacksonville's 23-7 victory over Cincinnati.

    - Robert Woods, Rams, caught two of Jared Goff's four touchdown tosses in Los Angeles' 51-17 win over the New York Giants.

    - Alvin Kamara, Saints, had six catches for 84 yards, including a 36-yard TD, and also scored on a 6-yard run in New Orleans' 30-10 win over Tampa Bay.

    - Terrence Williams, Cowboys, caught a career-best nine passes for 141 yards in Dallas' 29-17 victory over Kansas City.

    ---

    Special Teams

    - Justin Hardee, Saints, blocked Bryan Anger's punt and returned it 7 yards for a touchdown in New Orleans' 30-10 win over Tampa Bay.

    - Jaydon Mickens, Jaguars, returned a punt 63 yards for a score in the fourth quarter that sealed Jacksonville's 23-7 in over Cincinnati.

    - Greg Zuerlein, Rams, booted three field goals and made all six of his extra points in Los Angeles' 51-17 rout of the New York Giants.

    ---

    Defense

    - Jabaal Sheard, Colts, sealed Indianapolis' 20-14 win at Houston with a sack - his second of the game - and forced fumble as time ran out.

    - Kevin Byard, Titans, intercepted two passes in Tennessee's 23-20 win over Baltimore, giving him five over his past two games.

    - Keanu Neal, Falcons, forced two fumbles by Jonathan Stewart and recovered one in Atlanta's 20-17 loss to Jacksonville.

    - Brandon Marshall, Broncos, scooped up the fumble after Von Miller stripped Nick Foles of the football, and ran it back 19 yards for a TD in Denver's 51-23 loss at Philadelphia.

    - Dwight Freeney, Seahawks, had two sacks in Seattle's 17-14 loss to Washington, giving him three in the two games since joining the team.

    ---

    STREAKS & STATS


    Alex Smith threw his first interception of the season in Kansas City's 28-17 loss at Dallas. It ended a streak of 293 passes without a pick for Smith, who was 25 of 34 for 263 yards and two TDs. ... The Rams' 51-17 rout of the New York Giants was Los Angeles' fifth win in six games to improve to 6-2, the franchise's best start since 2001, when the club, then in St. Louis, went 14-2 in the regular season and eventually lost to the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. ... The Giants allowed the biggest offensive performance against them in a home game since Cleveland beat them 52-21 in the regular-season finale in 1964. ... Cincinnati finished with a season-low 148 yards in a 23-7 loss to Jacksonville, the Bengals' worst output since a 27-0 drubbing at Indianapolis in 2014 in which they managed just 135 yards. ... Denver's Demaryius Thomas caught his first TD pass this season, a 1-yard grab in the fourth quarter of the Broncos' 51-23 loss at Philadelphia. He hadn't scored since Nov. 13, 2016.

    ---

    MILESTONES


    Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Chargers and Carson Wentz of the Philadelphia Eagles became the first quarterbacks selected Nos. 1 and 2 in the same draft to each throw four or more touchdown passes on the same day. Goff, the top pick in 2016, had four touchdown throws in Los Angeles' 51-17 rout of the New York Giants on Sunday. Wentz, No. 2 that year, also threw four TD passes in Philadelphia's 51-23 victory over Denver. ... Eli Manning of the Giants became the seventh NFL quarterback to reach the 50,000-mark with his completion to Sterling Shepard in the fourth quarter against the Rams. ... Adam Vinatieri, who moved past Gary Anderson for second on the NFL's career scoring list on Sunday with 2,442 points, added a 22-yard field goal for the Colts to make it 10-0 in the second. ... Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald moved past Tim Brown into sixth place on the career list for yards receiving with 14,953. ... Arizona linebacker Karlos Dansby had an interception at San Francisco, becoming the fifth player with at least 40 sacks and 20 INTs in a career, joining Brian Urlacher, Ray Lewis, Wilber Marshall and Seth Joyner.

    ---

    ALL DAY


    Arizona's Adrian Peterson carried a career-high 37 times for 159 yards to take pressure off backup quarterback Drew Stanton and lead the Cardinals to a 20-10 victory over the winless San Francisco 49ers. The 32-year-old Peterson had 10 more carries in his third game with the Cardinals (4-4) than he had his first four weeks combined with the Saints. He posted the most carries ever for a player in his 30s and topped the 100-yard mark for the second time since being acquired in a trade last month. Peterson got the milestone in his 130th career game, fourth fastest in NFL history. Only Hall of Famers Jim Brown (115), Eric Dickerson (118) and Barry Sanders (125) got there faster. Peterson also moved into 15th place on the career rushing list with 12,142 yards, jumping ahead of Thurman Thomas.

    ---

    SOARING EAGLES

    Philadelphia improved to 8-1 with a 51-23 win over Denver, marking the fifth time in franchise history the Eagles have started a season 8-1 or better - joining the 1949, 1960, 1980 and 2004 squads. The Eagles advanced to the NFL championship game or Super Bowl in each of the previous four instances.

    ---

    NEW ORLEANS SWING


    New Orleans defeated Tampa Bay 30-10 to improve to 6-2 with its sixth straight victory. The Saints are the third team since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to win their next six games after an 0-2 start. The other teams to accomplish the feat - the 1993 Dallas Cowboys and 2007 New York Giants - both won the Super Bowl in that season.

    ---

    DAK ATTACK

    Dallas' Dak Prescott threw two touchdown passes and added a rushing touchdown in the Cowboys' 28-17 win over Kansas City. Prescott has 39 TD throws and 10 rushing scores in his career, joining Carolina's Cam Newton as the only players in NFL history to have at least 35 TD passes and 10 TD runs in their first two seasons.

    ---

    WOW FACTOR

    Kansas City's Tyreek Hill had a weaving 56-yard touchdown reception against Dallas just before halftime of the Cowboys' 28-17 win. Trailing 14-3, the Chiefs were at their 44 with 2 seconds left when the Cowboys used three linemen and a linebacker near the line of scrimmage and dropped everyone else back. Hill caught an easy toss from Alex Smith at the Cowboys 42 and started toward the goal line with three blockers in front. The speedy Hill motored around Orlando Scandrick at the 25, cut behind two blocks from Demarcus Robinson inside the 10, and sidestepped over-pursuing linebacker Anthony Hitchens to finish the stunning TD. It was Hill's ninth career touchdown of at least 50 yards in his 25th game. He trails only Gale Sayers (10) for the most 50-yard TDs in a player's first 25 games to begin a career.

    ---

    STICKY FINGERS


    Tennessee safety Kevin Byard had two interceptions in the Titans' 23-20 win over Baltimore, giving him five in his last two games. That ties him with Mike Haynes (1976), Willie Buchanon (1978), Albert Lewis (1985) and DeAngelo Hall (2010) for the most by an NFL player in consecutive games since the 1970 merger.

    ---

    DING! DING!

    Cincinnati receiver A.J. Green and Jacksonville cornerback Jalen Ramsey got into it after Ramsey pushed Green to the ground at the end of a running play. Green grabbed Ramsey around the neck and slammed him to the ground. Green then delivered numerous punches to Ramsey's helmet and put another MMA-style choke hold on Ramsey. It was the kind of aggressive attack that could lead to league discipline, maybe even a suspension. Green and Ramsey were ejected. ... In New Orleans, a scuffle started in the third quarter when Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston vigorously pressed his finger into the back of Saints rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore's helmet during a dead-ball period between a failed third-down pass and a punt. Lattimore turned and shoved Winston, after which Bucs receiver Mike Evans leveled Lattimore from behind. Saints defensive back De'Vante Harris then came charging into the melee to defend Lattimore. As the scuffle was broken up, Saints coach Sean Payton marched halfway across the field, gesturing angrily at the Tampa Bay bench before officials chased him back to the Saints' sideline. Evans was called for unnecessary roughness.

    ---

    RUNNING PANTHERS

    Cam Newton ran for 86 yards and a scored on a head-first diving 9-yard touchdown run as the Carolina Panthers erased an early 10-point deficit to beat the NFC South-rival Atlanta Falcons 20-17. With wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin traded to Buffalo, the Panthers turned to back to their running game, racking up a season-high 201 yards on the ground. Newton led the Panthers' rushing attack for the fourth straight week, while rookie Christian McCaffrey added a career-high 66 yards rushing and a touchdown.

    ---

    SIDELINED

    Jaguars rookie running back Leonard Fournette was inactive for violating a team rule. Jacksonville made the surprise announcement 90 minutes before kickoff. It's unclear what Fournette did to draw coach Doug Marrone's punishment. ... Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston left Sunday's game at New Orleans with shoulder soreness after the first half. Winston was 7 of 13 for 67 yards and the Bucs' extended their losing streak to five games in a 30-10 rout. Ryan Fitzpatrick replaced him. Winston sprained the AC joint in his right shoulder on Oct. 15 at Arizona, and he landed hard on the shoulder when he was sacked in the final minute of the first half against the Saints. ... Bucs starting defensive end William Gholston was carted off the field with a neck injury. Bucs coach Dirk Koetter said Gholston, who moved his arms and legs while the Bucs medical staff treated him on the field, was getting neurological tests at a hospital. ... Cowboys star receiver Dez Bryant left his team's 28-17 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs with a sprained ankle in the third quarter. ... Seatttle lost running back Eddie Lacy in the first quarter to a groin injury in their 17-14 loss to the Redskins.

    ---

    SPEAKING

    ''I should have walked off in that situation,'' Green said. ''It's never going to happen again. I regret my actions. Whatever my punishments are I accept them because I put myself in that situation. ... I've got to control my emotions better. I've got to handle my stuff better. I can't put myself in a situation like that, hurt my team and not be able to play.'' - Cincinnati's A.J. Green on his brawl with Jacksonville's Jalen Ramsey.

    ---

    ''NBA2K when guys are hot, you get that red ring around you. I'm in the zone right now.'' - Tennessee cornerback Kevin Byard, who had two interceptions against Baltimore and has five in his last two games.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • SuperContest Picks - Week 9
      November 5, 2017


      The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

      Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

      The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

      This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.

      Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

      Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8

      Week 9

      1) Indianapolis +13 (1,675) WIN

      2) L.A. Rams -3.5 (944) WIN

      3) Dallas +1 (824) WIN

      4) Denver +8.5 (766) LOSS

      5) Atlanta +1 (715) LOSS

      SUPERCONTEST WEEK 9 MATCHUPS & ODDS

      Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
      Buffalo (-3) 283 N.Y. Jets (+3) 174
      Denver (+8.5) 766 Philadelphia (-8.5) 420
      L.A. Rams (-3.5) 944 N.Y. Giants (+3.5) 332
      Tampa Bay (+7) 517 New Orleans (-7) 608
      Cincinnati (+5) 423 Jacksonville (-5) 604
      Atlanta (+1) 715 Carolina (-1) 443
      Indianapolis (+13) 1675 Houston (-13) 70
      Baltimore (+5) 471 Tennessee (-5) 379
      Arizona (-2) 338 San Francisco (+2) 342
      Washington (+7) 241 Seattle (-7) 627
      Kansas City (-1) 522 Dallas (+1) 824
      Oakland (-3) 561 Miami (+3) 382
      Detroit (-2.5) 483 Green Bay (+2.5) 426

      WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
      Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
      1 0-5 0-5 0%
      2 3-2 3-7 30%
      3 2-3 5-10 33%
      4 4-1 9-11 45%
      5 1-4 10-15 40%
      6 2-3 12-18 40%
      7 0-5 12-23 34%
      8 2-3 14-26 35%
      9 3-2 17-28 38%
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • MNF - Lions at Packers
        November 4, 2017


        LAST WEEK

        The Lions (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) dropped their third straight game following a 3-1 start in a 20-15 home defeat to the Steelers as three-point underdogs. Detroit failed to reach the end zone as kicker Matt Prater knocked down five field goals, while the Lions couldn’t convert a fourth and goal at the one-yard line down 13-12. Four plays later, Ben Roethlisberger hooked up with rookie standout Juju Smith-Schuster on a 97-yard touchdown strike to give the Steelers a 20-12 lead which held up.

        Amazingly, the Lions didn’t score a touchdown in spite of quarterback Matthew Stafford’s 423-yard passing effort. Stafford rebounded from a three-interception performance in a Week 6 setback at New Orleans, while getting intercepted only once in five home games. Marvin Jones, Jr. hauled in six catches for 128 yards, but the Lions’ rushing game didn’t get going by racking up 71 yards on 22 carries. Defensively, Detroit did as much as it could against a talented Pittsburgh offense by limiting the Steelers to 392 yards, which included the dreaded 97-yard touchdown to put the game out of reach.

        The Packers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) are back from the bye week following a Week 7 home loss to the Saints. Green Bay began life without star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who suffered a collarbone injury in a Week 6 loss at Minnesota that has him sidelined indefinitely. Brett Hundley made his first start against New Orleans, but there was an obvious drop-off as the former UCLA quarterback threw for only 87 yards and was intercepted once.

        Green Bay held a 14-7 lead following a Hundley 14-yard touchdown run, but the Saints outscored the Packers the rest of the way, 19-3 as New Orleans accumulated 485 yards. Running back Aaron Jones broke the 100-yard mark for the second time in three weeks by compiling 131 yards on 17 carries to go along with a touchdown, but the Packers have scored 27 points in the last two games since consecutive 35-point performances in Weeks 4 and 5.

        MOTOR CITY CHALK

        For only the second time this season, the Lions will be laying points. Detroit fell short in its first favorite opportunity in a 27-24 home setback to Carolina in Week 5 as two-point chalk. Jim Caldwell’s team was favored only once away from Ford Field last season, dropping a 17-14 decision at Chicago as three-point favorites. The last time Detroit won when laying points on the highway came at Chicago in the season finale of 2016, while owning a 6-7 ATS record as a favorite since the start of 2015.

        NO AARON, NO PROBLEM?

        Actually, it is a problem when Rodgers isn’t in the lineup for the Packers. In 2013 when Rodgers injured his left shoulder in a Week 9 loss to the Bears, Green Bay went on to 2-4-1 record the next seven games, including home losses to the Eagles and Steelers, to go along with a tie against Minnesota. In those defeats to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the Packers were listed as a home underdog. Green Bay actually won as a home ‘dog against Seattle last season, but the Packers last won in this role without Rodgers in the lineup coming in the 2011 season finale – against the Lions.

        SERIES HISTORY


        The Lions haven’t had much luck at Lambeau Field over the years by losing 25 of the last 26 visits to Wisconsin since a December victory in 1991 to help them win the NFC Central. The only time Detroit has won in the last quarter-century at Green Bay came in 2015 as a 10 ½-point underdog, 18-16.

        Last season, the Packers swept the Lions in a pair of high-scoring affairs won by seven points each. In the first matchup last September, Green Bay built a 31-3 advantage before Detroit roared back by outscoring the Packers, 24-3 the rest of the way. However, the Packers picked up a 34-27 victory as 6 ½-point favorites, paced by four Rodgers touchdown passes. Stafford tried to keep up by tossing three touchdowns, including two to Marvin Jones, who hauled in 205 yards in the loss.

        In the final meeting in Detroit in Week 17, the Packers held off the Lions, 31-24 as 3 ½-point favorites, highlighted by another four touchdown passing game by Rodgers. Stafford fell to 3-10 in his career against the Packers in spite of 347 yards passing and two touchdown tosses.

        UNDER THE LIGHTS

        Detroit is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season after winning at New York in Week 2 over the Giants, 24-10 as three-point underdogs. Since 2015, the Lions have split four Monday night games, but have compiled a 3-1 ATS record. Dating back to 2014, the Packers are a perfect 3-0 in Monday action, while playing in its first Monday game this season.

        HANDICAPPER’S CORNER


        VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson weighs in on this matchup, “These are below average statistical teams with the Lions ranked 19th and the Packers sitting 23rd in the league rankings in total offense despite both teams being in the top 11 in scoring. The scoring and total defense numbers are nearly identical at this point in the season as well heading into the season’s first meeting with these teams set to meet in Detroit in Week 17.”

        It will be tough for the Packers to keep their heads above water without Rodgers, as Nelson looks at what lies ahead for Green Bay, “The prognosis of Rodgers is still being determined with some hope that he could return for the final three weeks of the regular season. For that to happen, the Packers would need to have meaningful games in the final three weeks and Hundley will need to guide Green Bay to a few wins in a relatively favorable schedule in November and early December outside of a trip to Pittsburgh in Week 12.”

        The Packers will have to focus on the run to be successful with Hundley under center, but it won’t be easy according to Nelson, “With Hundley leading the offense, the Packers seem likely to run the ball more often and against New Orleans in Hundley’s first start, the Packers gained 181 yards rushing though on only 24 carries. Detroit actually allows only 3.6 yards per rush this season for the fourth- lowest average in the league, but those strong numbers are in part of factor of Detroit allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt for one of the worst pass defenses in the league.”

        From a trends standpoint, handicapper Vince Akins points out an OVER system that applies to Green Bay, “The Packers are 10-0 OU since November 6, 2016 facing an opponent that is averaging fewer than 25 rushes per game.” Four of those OVERS came this season already, including in home victories over Cincinnati and Chicago.

        BOOKMAKER’S TAKE


        Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu provides his view from the counter, “Every time we’ve taken some smart money on Detroit, and move to -2.5, we get the same on the other side and drop back to the opener of -2. At this point, 60 percent of the handle is on the road chalk. Public is somewhat split on the decision, with a few more backing the Pack. If this spread moves anywhere, I’d expect it will move toward the Lions.”
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • Monday's Best Bet
          November 3, 2017


          NFL Week 9 MNF Best Bet
          Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers


          A NFC North showdown caps off Week 9's NFL action on Monday night and it's a rarity to see the Detroit Lions actually laying points on the road at Lambeau Field. But that's what it means for Green Bay to not have QB Aaron Rodgers under center at the moment, and backup Brett Hundley's performance in his first start a few weeks ago didn't exactly grow bettor's confidence in the Packers going forward.

          The Packers are coming off their bye week though, so hopefully for Green Bay fans that time off and extra practice time helped Hundley further adjust to his new role as the starter. Can he and the Packers step up and get the outright win this week?

          BetOnline.ag Odds: Detroit (-2.5); Total set at 43.5

          Right off the bat I think that the Hundley we saw two weeks ago that threw for just 87 yards and 1 INT is not going to be the same guy we see this week on extended rest. The time off to prepare for this game had to have helped him tremendously, but that being said, he's still not going to look like the second coming of Aaron Rodgers this week. He's still a significant downgrade at the position for Green Bay, and the coaching staff will still be on the side of caution with him regarding playcalling and the like.

          On the Lions side, their offense has to be frustrated with how they couldn't close against the Steelers a week ago as they had plenty of opportunities inside the redzone to cash in with TD's and couldn't get it done. Settling for FG's inside the 10-yard line is a quick way to lose in the NFL and Detroit suffered that fate first hand a week ago.

          With no Rodgers to deal with on the other side, the Lions have to view this game as a great opportunity to beat a hated rival, get back to .500 on the year and start to legitimately think about hunting down Minnesota in the division. But I wouldn't expect those red zone problems to be completely solved just a week later as the Lions roster doesn't really have that physical RB that can get you tough yards close to the goal line, and relying on QB Matthew Stafford's arm to connect in those tight windows down there is tough.

          So where do you go on this game?

          Well, with the kid gloves on for Hundley and Green Bay's offensive playcalling, look for the Packers defense to step up and try to carry the load. The guys on that side of the ball know they don't have Rodgers under center anymore to bail them out like he often has, and it's up to them to try and keep the Packers in the playoff mix. This defense has had two weeks to prepare for a Lions team they already know very well, and given Detroit's redzone problems, Green Bay's defense has to like their chances of tightening things up in those situations and forcing the Lions to FG tries at best.

          Detroit's defense will be hungry to get after Hundley and force him to beat them with his arm. That's not ideal from the Packers perspective, so points may be hard to come by for them as well. Green Bay is 1-4 O/U the last five years after their bye week and contrary to all the recent QB shootouts between Stafford and Rodgers in this rivalry recently, this game has a much different feel to it.

          Therefore, I'm looking to the low side of this total here as I'm not even sure either team gets to 20 points. Green Bay will want to shorten the game with their ground attack and limit Hundley's exposure, while the Packers defense will step up to frustrate Stafford and the Lions attack for the second consecutive week. We could see quite a bit of FG's in this game on the drives that do yield points, and I'm surprised we are already seeing about 75% of the action on this total already on the high side.

          With the Lions 1-5 O/U in their last six division games overall, 3-9 O/U in their last 12 appearances on MNF, and 8-22 O/U in their last 30 on the road, I'm just not sure where we get the points.

          Clearly I'm in the minority on an 'under' play right now and this total could even go higher by Monday night with all the action on the high side already. If that's what ends up happening I'll have to put another unit or two on this 'under' play, as this will be the first MNF game in about a month that will cash 'under' tickets for bettors. Coincidentally, that last under on MNF this year also featured two NFC North teams battling it out (Minnesota/Chicago).

          Odds per - BetOnline.ag

          Best Bet: Under 43.5
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • Monday’s six-pack

            Six most popular picks for Week 9 in the Westgate Super Contest:

            6) Seattle Seahawks -7 (627)- L

            5) Atlanta Falcons +1 (715)- L

            4) Denver Broncos +8.5 (766)- L

            3) Dallas Cowboys +1 (824)- W

            2) Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (944)- W

            1) Indianapolis Colts +13 (1,675)- W

            Season record of top 6 picks: 21-33


            ******************************************


            Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday


            13) Before we go over this week’s games, some thoughts about today’s shooting in Texas.

            If you can’t go to church and feel safe, something is bleeping wrong. 24 people died in a mass shooting in a Texas church Sunday. Do churches need metal detectors? Is this what our country is coming to? Seriously?

            I’m tired of offering thoughts/prayers to victims; you go to church to pray, but right now, there are little kids in surgery because a crazy person shot up a church. Enough already.

            Jets 34, Bills 21— Buffalo came in to this game +14 in turnovers for season, left +11. Jets ran ball for 194 yards, ended a 3-game losing skid. Jets are only 4-5, but they haven’t trailed at halftime since Week 2. By the way, I vote for the NFL to eliminate Thursday night games and switch to Monday night doubleheaders. Think it would be better for the league.

            Eagles 51, Broncos 23— Tough scheduling spot for Broncos, who played in Kansas City Monday night, then had 3rd straight road game here. Denver has now lost four games in a row, scoring 10-0-3-23 points; they’re also 0-4 on the road, losing by 10-21-10-28 points. Eagles won their last seven games, would be #1 seed in NFC if the playoffs started today.

            Rams 51, Giants 17— Performances like this get coaches/GM’s fired. Rams scored eight of the first nine times they had the ball- they’re 4-0 in true road games this season. Giants have a lot of interesting decisions to make this fall/winter.

            It takes a whole roster for a team to be good; reserve LB Cory Littleton has blocked a punt in two of the Rams’ last three games. Rams’ special teams coach John Fassel is the son of Jim Fassel, who led the Giants to Super Bowl XXXV.

            Saints 30, Buccaneers 10— New Orleans won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); their defense is the story. Saints allowed 8 TD’s on 65 drives during their winning streak. Buccaneers have now lost five games in a row, as teams that were on HBO’s Hard Knocks in the summer continue to struggle that season.

            Bucs are 0-4 on road, losing by 7-5-3-20 points. Jon Gruden’s name will be mentioned a lot in Tampa this week. Jameis Winston sat out the 2nd half (shoulder), which could be really bad news for the Bucs, who didn’t have a play longer than 15 yards in this game.

            Jaguars 23, Bengals 7— Cincinnati ran 37 plays for 148 yards for the whole game- they were 1-8 on 3rd down, Jaguars were 12-18. Total yardage was 407-148.

            Jags de-activated Leonard Fournette for this game because he is lapsing with his off-field responsibilities, like getting his treatments for his ankle, and missing the team picture. Jax’ville hasn’t allowed a second half TD in their last four games, outscoring teams 43-6.

            Panthers 20, Falcons 17— Atlanta/Denver both played their 3rd straight week on the road, neither team won or covered. Panthers allowed only two offensive TD’s in their last three games- they’re 6-3 with a bye week coming up in two weeks. Saints lead NFC South with a 6-2 mark, while the Falcons’ Super Bowl hangover continues— Atlanta is 4-5.

            Colts 20, Texans 14— Loss of star rookie QB Watson was obvious here; Texans’ first TD was scored by their defense. Houston had scored 33+ points in its last five games, but with Watson out, not so much.

            Tom Savage led Texans down field on last drive, getting to the Colts’ 10-yard line, but Savage got sacked/fumbled as time ran out. Indy is now 1-4 on the road.

            Titans 23, Ravens 20— Tennessee allowed only three TD’s on 30 drives in winning their last three games- they’re 3-1 at home. Teams coming off a Thursday night game are now 10-4-1 vs spread; the Thursday winner is 5-2-1 vs spread in their next game, the loser 5-2, with Miami’s result pending Sunday night.

            Redskins 17, Seahawks 14— Seattle ran ball better (148 yards) with new OT Brown in lineup, but they missed three FGs, and lost despite outgaining Washington 437-244. Seahawks also had 16 penalties for 138 yards. Big win for the Redskins, whose OL has been almost totally rebuilt in last couple of weeks. Right now, Seahawks are tied with Dallas for second Wild Card slot.

            Cowboys 28, Chiefs 17— Both teams that played on Monday night last week lost road games this week; tough scheduling spot. Dallas converted 7-12 on 3rd down, ran ball for 131 yards as Elliott keeps skirting the NFL’s suspension during the week and opposing tacklers on Sunday. I’m not a big Alex Smith fan; I know his career won-loss record is 86-68-1, which is very good, just don’t think he takes enough chances to ever be a great QB.

            Raiders 27, Dolphins 24— Oakland won for only second time in last seven games overall, second time in last 10 meetings with Miami; they’ve scored 26+ points in their wins this season, 17 or less in their five losses. Teams that played on Thursday are 10-5-1 vs spread in their next game, when they have three extra days to rest. Dolphins pushed the spread with a late touchdown. Favorites are 8-3-1 vs spread this weekend; over is 5-7.
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

              Six most popular picks for Week 9 in the Westgate Super Contest:

              6) Seattle Seahawks -7 (627)- L

              5) Atlanta Falcons +1 (715)- L

              4) Denver Broncos +8.5 (766)- L

              3) Dallas Cowboys +1 (824)- W

              2) Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (944)- W

              1) Indianapolis Colts +13 (1,675)- W

              Season record of top 6 picks: 21-33


              **********

              Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

              13) Before we go over this week’s games, some thoughts about today’s shooting in Texas.

              If you can’t go to church and feel safe, something is bleeping wrong. 24 people died in a mass shooting in a Texas church Sunday. Do churches need metal detectors? Is this what our country is coming to? Seriously?

              I’m tired of offering thoughts/prayers to victims; you go to church to pray, but right now, there are little kids in surgery because a crazy person shot up a church. Enough already.

              Jets 34, Bills 21— Buffalo came in to this game +14 in turnovers for season, left +11. Jets ran ball for 194 yards, ended a 3-game losing skid. Jets are only 4-5, but they haven’t trailed at halftime since Week 2. By the way, I vote for the NFL to eliminate Thursday night games and switch to Monday night doubleheaders. Think it would be better for the league.

              Eagles 51, Broncos 23— Tough scheduling spot for Broncos, who played in Kansas City Monday night, then had 3rd straight road game here. Denver has now lost four games in a row, scoring 10-0-3-23 points; they’re also 0-4 on the road, losing by 10-21-10-28 points. Eagles won their last seven games, would be #1 seed in NFC if the playoffs started today.

              Rams 51, Giants 17— Performances like this get coaches/GM’s fired. Rams scored eight of the first nine times they had the ball- they’re 4-0 in true road games this season. Giants have a lot of interesting decisions to make this fall/winter.

              It takes a whole roster for a team to be good; reserve LB Cory Littleton has blocked a punt in two of the Rams’ last three games. Rams’ special teams coach John Fassel is the son of Jim Fassel, who led the Giants to Super Bowl XXXV.

              Saints 30, Buccaneers 10— New Orleans won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); their defense is the story. Saints allowed 8 TD’s on 65 drives during their winning streak. Buccaneers have now lost five games in a row, as teams that were on HBO’s Hard Knocks in the summer continue to struggle that season.

              Bucs are 0-4 on road, losing by 7-5-3-20 points. Jon Gruden’s name will be mentioned a lot in Tampa this week. Jameis Winston sat out the 2nd half (shoulder), which could be really bad news for the Bucs, who didn’t have a play longer than 15 yards in this game.

              Jaguars 23, Bengals 7— Cincinnati ran 37 plays for 148 yards for the whole game- they were 1-8 on 3rd down, Jaguars were 12-18. Total yardage was 407-148.

              Jags de-activated Leonard Fournette for this game because he is lapsing with his off-field responsibilities, like getting his treatments for his ankle, and missing the team picture. Jax’ville hasn’t allowed a second half TD in their last four games, outscoring teams 43-6.

              Panthers 20, Falcons 17— Atlanta/Denver both played their 3rd straight week on the road, neither team won or covered. Panthers allowed only two offensive TD’s in their last three games- they’re 6-3 with a bye week coming up in two weeks. Saints lead NFC South with a 6-2 mark, while the Falcons’ Super Bowl hangover continues— Atlanta is 4-5.

              Colts 20, Texans 14— Loss of star rookie QB Watson was obvious here; Texans’ first TD was scored by their defense. Houston had scored 33+ points in its last five games, but with Watson out, not so much.

              Tom Savage led Texans down field on last drive, getting to the Colts’ 10-yard line, but Savage got sacked/fumbled as time ran out. Indy is now 1-4 on the road.

              Titans 23, Ravens 20— Tennessee allowed only three TD’s on 30 drives in winning their last three games- they’re 3-1 at home. Teams coming off a Thursday night game are now 10-4-1 vs spread; the Thursday winner is 5-2-1 vs spread in their next game, the loser 5-2, with Miami’s result pending Sunday night.

              Redskins 17, Seahawks 14— Seattle ran ball better (148 yards) with new OT Brown in lineup, but they missed three FGs, and lost despite outgaining Washington 437-244. Seahawks also had 16 penalties for 138 yards. Big win for the Redskins, whose OL has been almost totally rebuilt in last couple of weeks. Right now, Seahawks are tied with Dallas for second Wild Card slot.

              Cowboys 28, Chiefs 17— Both teams that played on Monday night last week lost road games this week; tough scheduling spot. Dallas converted 7-12 on 3rd down, ran ball for 131 yards as Elliott keeps skirting the NFL’s suspension during the week and opposing tacklers on Sunday. I’m not a big Alex Smith fan; I know his career won-loss record is 86-68-1, which is very good, just don’t think he takes enough chances to ever be a great QB.

              Raiders 27, Dolphins 24— Oakland won for only second time in last seven games overall, second time in last 10 meetings with Miami; they’ve scored 26+ points in their wins this season, 17 or less in their five losses. Teams that played on Thursday are 10-5-1 vs spread in their next game, when they have three extra days to rest. Dolphins pushed the spread with a late touchdown. Favorites are 8-3-1 vs spread this weekend; over is 5-7.
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • NFL

                Monday, November 6


                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Lions at Packers
                ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                Matthew Stafford has averaged a team-best 5.2 yards per carry this season while Ameer Abdullah leads in attempts and yards for the Lions, who rank 28th in rushing yards per game.

                Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (+2, 43.5)

                The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are attempting to address issues with their respective offenses heading into Monday night's clash at Lambeau Field. The Packers have seen their high-octane offense take a significant hit with the loss of two-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers (broken collarbone), while the Lions' issues deal with their inability to consistently convert in the red zone.

                Brett Hundley answered a three-interception performance in relief of an injured Rodgers by completing just 12-of-25 passes for 87 yards and an interception in his first career start - a 26-17 loss to New Orleans on Oct. 22. The Packers had their bye the following week, with coach Mike McCarthy and Rodgers working with Hundley in a bid to address some issues with the team's 243.5-yard total offense in the near-two games since Rodgers was injured - 66.5 below their season average. Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 423 yards in last Sunday's 20-15 loss to Pittsburgh, but his team went 0-for-5 in the red zone and fell to 28th in the league in that situation as it settled for five field goals by Matt Prater. "Just not executing enough," Stafford told reporters. "Whether it’s me making a better throw or a guy making a catch or assignments in the run game - whatever it is, we’ve just got to execute better.”

                TV:
                8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

                POWER RANKINGS:
                Lions (0) - Packers (4) + home field (-3) = Packers +1

                LINE HISTORY:
                The Lions opened as 2.5-point road chalk and money coming in on the Packers brought that line as low as +1 Sunday morning, before fading back to +2. The total hit the betting board at 43 and is up slightly to 43.5.

                WHAT SHARPS SAY:
                "The Detroit Lions will look to overcome one of the ugliest stains in the NFL as they look to improve on a 1-25 mark as a virus in this series. With Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers watching from the sidelines the Packers will try an overcome an equally ugly 0-3 SU and ATS record at home in games they played without Rodgers the last time he broke his collarbone in 2013." - Marc Lawrence.

                INJURY REPORT:

                Lions - RB Dwayne Washington (Questionable, Concussion), S Don Carey (Questionable, Knee), DE Ezekiel Ansah (Questionable, Knee), WR Kenny Golladay (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Paul Worrilow (Questionable, Knee), OT Rick Wagner (Questionable, Ankle), OT Greg Robinson (Questionable, Ankle), OT Emmett Cleary (Questionable, Ankle), OT Taylor Decker (Questionable, Shoulder), G Tim Lelito (I-R, Thigh).

                Packers - TE Martellus Bennett (Questionable, Shoulder), S Kentrell Brice (Questionable, Ankle), DT Quinton Dial (Questionable, Chest), LS Taybor Pepper (Questionable, Foot), LB Joe Thomas (Questionable, Ankle), S Morgan Burnett (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Ahmad Brooks (Questionable, Back), G Lane Taylor (Questionable, Ankle), LB Jake Ryan (Questionable, Migraine), OT Jason Spriggs (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Demetri Goodson (Questionable, Knee), LB Vince Biegel (Questionable, Monday)

                ABOUT THE LIONS (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U):
                Golden Tate didn't let an ailing shoulder slow him down as he recorded seven receptions for the second straight game last Sunday, while Marvin Jones Jr. made six catches for the third consecutive contest, amassing 128 yards in the process. While the passing game traditionally has clicked under Stafford, Detroit's ground attack has been running in place as it has been 59 contests since the team had a 100-yard rusher (Reggie Bush versus Green Bay in 2013). Stafford actually has averaged a team-best 5.2 yards per carry this season while Ameer Abdullah leads in attempts (101) and yards (369) for the Lions, who rank 28th in rushing yards per game (82.1) and yards per attempt (3.48).

                ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U):
                Hundley admitted a comfort level working with Rodgers as he prepares for his second career start. "Me and Aaron talk a lot," Hundley told reporters on Thursday. "Even when he was playing, we still talked a lot. It's the same - now it's a different type of talk. He's telling me stuff, and it's good for me. Aaron's always been a brother to me. Whenever you have people like that around, you always feel better." Jordy Nelson is tied for second in the NFL with six receiving touchdowns, but the stud wideout was limited to just one catch for 13 yards against the Saints while Randall Cobb has reeled in just five passes for 43 yards over the last two games.

                TRENDS:


                * Lions are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

                * Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 vs. NFC North.

                * Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games following a bye week.

                * Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

                * Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Green Bay.

                CONSENSUS:
                The road fave Lions are picking up 65 percent of the action on the spread and Under is grabbing 61 percent of the totals selections.
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • Wiseguys are advising that these Week 10 NFL lines are going to move
                  Art Aronson

                  The Rams (6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS) have morphed into an offensive power, scoring the most points in the NFC West by a 74-point margin, and the second-most in the NFC.

                  Game to bet now

                  Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (+10)

                  Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that Ben Roethlisberger was questioning whether he wanted to even play football? Things have certainly changed, as the Steelers now are riding a three-game win streak, have taken complete control of the AFC North and are tied with New England for the best record in the AFC at 6-2.

                  Pittsburgh will play this one coming off its bye week against a Colts team with a newbie quarterback and in no way prepared to compete against elite teams. The line on this one has already crossed the Rubicon from 9.5 to 10, and is unlikely to change again unless heavy money comes crashing down on one side or the other.

                  Game to wait on

                  Houston at Los Angeles Rams (-11)

                  Deshaun Watson’s season-ending injury, and the Texans' subsequent loss to the Colts this past Sunday, has rocked Houston into considering signing Colin Kaepernick - a move that would do the league a solid by taking pressure off outspoken owner Bob McNair and put an end to the QB’s embarrassing suit against the NFL.

                  The Texans are in a deep hole at any rate, and now they have to contend with the most surprising team in the league. The Rams (6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS) have morphed into an offensive power, scoring the most points in the NFC West by a 74-point margin, and the second-most in the NFC.

                  There are some moving parts in this line, not the least of which is to find early betting reaction to LA’s 51-point outburst against the Giants this past Sunday. The line probably hasn’t firmed up yet.

                  Total to watch

                  New York Giants at San Francisco (42)

                  The Niners will eventually turn their team over to Jimmy Garoppolo, so what better place to open up their new toy than at home against one of the worst defensive teams in the entire league? The 42 number is obviously a nod to both team’s offensive shortcomings, but it ignores the fact that neither has shown any interest in stopping opponents. San Francisco is ranked 27th overall defensively, and the Giants are 30th.
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • Betting Recap - Week 9
                    November 6, 2017


                    Overall Notes

                    NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 9 RESULTS


                    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
                    Straight Up 8-4
                    Against the Spread 6-4-2

                    Wager Home-Away
                    Straight Up 7-5
                    Against the Spread 6-4-2

                    Wager Totals (O/U)
                    Over-Under 5-7

                    The largest underdogs to win straight up
                    Redskins (+8.5, ML +350) at Seahawks, 17-14
                    Colts (+6, ML +210) at Texans, 20-14
                    Jets (+3.5, ML +155) vs. Bills, 34-21
                    Panthers (+3, ML +135) vs. Falcons, 20-17

                    The largest favorite to cover

                    Eagles (-7) vs. Broncos, 51-23
                    Saints (-7) vs. Buccaneers, 30-10
                    Rams (-6) at Giants, 51-17
                    Jaguars (-5.5) vs. Bengals, 23-7

                    Bam-da-Lam, How About Those Rams?

                    -- The Los Angeles Rams hit the road and thrashed the hapless New York Giants 51-17, as QB Jared Goff and company are currently the highest-scoring offense in the National Football League. How many people predicted that after the former standout at Cal looked like a deer in headlights in his rookie season? The Rams have won and covered three in a row, and the 'over' has cashed in six of their eight games overall. Cross-country trips haven't fazed the Rams, either, as they're 2-0 SU/ATS in two outings in the Eastern Time Zone. Hey, at least they were helped out somewhat on Sunday when we turned back the clocks an hour.

                    Odd Balls

                    -- The Jacksonville Jaguars came out of their bye rested, and they humbled the visiting Cincinnati Bengals by a 23-7 count at EverBank Stadium. It might have been an eyebrow-raising win considering they were a six-point favorite despite missing all-everything rookie RB Leonard Fournette, who was deactivated due to a violation of team rules. #Sacksonville was led by their defense, and they won and covered because it was an odd-numbered week. If you've been following this column all season you'd know the Jags are 5-0 SU/ATS in odd-numbered weeks, and 0-3 SU/ATS in even-numbered weeks, which is why it was good their bye was in Week 8. So will they fail to cover at home against the visiting Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10? The coincidental trend suggests so. And hey, the Bolts are coming off a bye, so they'll be rested.
                    Total Recall

                    -- Sunday Night Football hit the 'over' for the first time since Week 5, as the Oakland Raiders picked up a much-needed road victory against the hard-to-figure Miami Dolphins, 27-24. That's now three 'over' results in a row for the Silver and Black, and their second straight over in the Eastern Time Zone. It was also the third consecutive 'over' for the Fins, thanks in large part to their flagging defense. Miami is allowing 31.7 PPG over their past three outings after yielding just 16.9 PPG through their first five games, all 'under' results.

                    -- The games with the two lowest total on the board -- Cincinnati-Jacksonville (38) and Arizona-San Francisco (39) -- actually went according to how Vegas figured for once. The Jags have hit the 'under' in three of their past four outings, and they have yielded single-digit point totals in five of their first eight outings this season. The Bengals have struggled on offense, averaging just 16.2 PPG this season. And the 49ers have a rookie QB, and they have scored exactly 10 points in each of their past three outings, so no surprise on the 'under' there, while the Cards have a backup signal caller under center.

                    -- The Tampa Bay-New Orleans (54.5) game was far and away the highest total on the board, and it never came close to going over. In fact, the Bucs have two scoreless quarters, and the Saints had one, while all but one of the quarters had 10 or fewer total points. It was rather surprising considering the 'over' had cashed in each of the first three road games for Tampa this season, and the Saints are averaging 30.5 PPG in four home outings (over is 2-2).

                    -- The 'Over' is 17-11 (60.7%) through the first 28 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's NFC North Division clash between the Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers (43) still pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

                    Injury Report

                    -- Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston (shoulder) has had a bum shoulder for the past couple of weeks, and he exited Sunday's game in New Orleans early due to a shoulder ailment. He was on the sidelines, however, bugging Saints CB Marshon Lattimore, and he ended up touching off a fracas.

                    -- Cowboys WR Dez Bryant (ankle) suffered a right ankle injury in the fourth quarter of the win against the Chiefs, but he told The Dallas Morning News that he was just sore and bruised, and he would be fine for Week 10.

                    -- Seahawks RB Eddie Lacy (groin) left early due to a groin injury against the Redskins and he was unable to return.

                    Looking Ahead

                    -- There are just two divisional battles next week. The Seahawks and Cardinals will kick off Week 10 on Thursday Night Football in the desert. Seattle will be awfully angry after a home loss to the banged up 'Skins. Seattle has been good on the road lately, though, winning and covering their past two. Meanwhile, Arizona is just 2-6 ATS this season, going 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS in three home games. Last season, Arizona was 1-0-1 SU and 1-1 ATS against Seattle, with a 6-6 tie on Oct. 23 at home against the 'Hawks.

                    -- The Packers and Bears renew acquaintances in the Second City, and Chicago will be looking for a little payback after getting drummed 35-14 at Lambeau on Thursday Night Football back on Sept. 28. Of course, the offense was being led by Aaron Rodgers, who has since been injured. The Packers have won each of their past seven trips to Soldier Field, including a playoff game in 2011, while going 6-1 ATS. Their last regular season loss in Chicago came Sept. 27, 2010. Again, though, the games were with Rodgers under center, not Brett Hundley.
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • Wiseguys are advising that these Week 10 NFL lines are going to move
                      Art Aronson

                      The Rams (6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS) have morphed into an offensive power, scoring the most points in the NFC West by a 74-point margin, and the second-most in the NFC.

                      Game to bet now

                      Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (+10)

                      Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that Ben Roethlisberger was questioning whether he wanted to even play football? Things have certainly changed, as the Steelers now are riding a three-game win streak, have taken complete control of the AFC North and are tied with New England for the best record in the AFC at 6-2.

                      Pittsburgh will play this one coming off its bye week against a Colts team with a newbie quarterback and in no way prepared to compete against elite teams. The line on this one has already crossed the Rubicon from 9.5 to 10, and is unlikely to change again unless heavy money comes crashing down on one side or the other.

                      Game to wait on

                      Houston at Los Angeles Rams (-11)

                      Deshaun Watson’s season-ending injury, and the Texans' subsequent loss to the Colts this past Sunday, has rocked Houston into considering signing Colin Kaepernick - a move that would do the league a solid by taking pressure off outspoken owner Bob McNair and put an end to the QB’s embarrassing suit against the NFL.

                      The Texans are in a deep hole at any rate, and now they have to contend with the most surprising team in the league. The Rams (6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS) have morphed into an offensive power, scoring the most points in the NFC West by a 74-point margin, and the second-most in the NFC.

                      There are some moving parts in this line, not the least of which is to find early betting reaction to LA’s 51-point outburst against the Giants this past Sunday. The line probably hasn’t firmed up yet.

                      Total to watch

                      New York Giants at San Francisco (42)

                      The Niners will eventually turn their team over to Jimmy Garoppolo, so what better place to open up their new toy than at home against one of the worst defensive teams in the entire league? The 42 number is obviously a nod to both team’s offensive shortcomings, but it ignores the fact that neither has shown any interest in stopping opponents. San Francisco is ranked 27th overall defensively, and the Giants are 30th.
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • Books, Public draw in Week 9
                        November 6, 2017


                        NFL Week 9 action saw mixed results at sports books all across Las Vegas for a variety of reasons, but they were all unified in needing Miami in the Sunday night game against Oakland where the Raiders had moved from from a two-point road favorite all the way up to -3.5 on game day before eventually closing at -3.

                        Sure enough, the books got middled when the Raiders won 27-24.

                        "It wasn't a good day," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback. "We had one casino player have a huge day against us going 4-0 so far.

                        That house player was wagering six-figures a game making the rest of what happened on the day pale in comparison to his action, but if extracting those house player losses from the overall betting pool, the public still managed to do well.

                        "The Eagles game was a killer for us," said Stoneback. "The Rams hurt too, those were our two worst of the day."

                        Those were the top two games on the rotation and the two favorites each posted 50 spots on a couple of proud franchises. The Eagles are quickly becoming the bettors best friend by covering weekly and Sunday's 51-23 beat down of the Broncos (+7) was another piece of the puzzle of building a Super Bowl champion. The blowout win against the NFL's No. 1 defense made Philadelphia an NFL-best 7-2 against the spread this season. MGM books dropped their Eagles Super Bowl odds from 6/1 down to 5/1 after the game.

                        Denver's QB situation didn't change much with Brock Osweiler getting the start Sunday. The Broncos were looking for a boost from the back-up after Trevor Siemian lost his starting job, but Denver went on to lose their fourth straight which they've been outscored 124-52.

                        Not to be outdone by the Eagles, the Rams traveled across the country for a 10:00 a.m. PT game at MetLife Stadium against the Giants and blasted them 51-17, which coupled with Seattle's loss, gave the Rams sole possession of first-place in the NFC West at 6-2. They are the NFL's highest-scoring team and Jared Goff is anything but the bust we thought he was last year. If anything, it's more of an indictment on former Rams coach Jeff Fisher being out of touch.

                        "The morning games were ugly, the house went 1-6 with only the Panthers helping us out," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "The Redskins outright win was huge in the afternoon to give us a positive number. We need the Dolphins to hold on to a winning day."

                        The Falcons number was running everywhere over the weekend where the Panthers went from being a 2.5-point home favorite to the Falcons being three-point favorites by kickoff. Carolina held on for the 20-17 win, one of three underdogs to win outright on the day. The South Point had Carolina money-line at +140.

                        "If Seattle covered it would have been a disaster, Stoneback said of the Seahawks who were 8.5-point home favorites against the Redskins. "After we posted the Cardinals and Cowboys results we were looking at a seven-figure loss with Seattle with straight bets, parlays, teasers and money-line parlays all waiting to be cashed. The Redskins saved the day for us."

                        The Seahawks couldn't get anything going offensively in the rain until the fourth quarter. Washington held a 10-2 lead for most of the game, but once again Russell Wilson did some late game magic and led the Seahawks to two TD drivers, the last of which gave them a 14-10 lead, but Wilson made it happen too quick and left plenty of time on the clock for Kirk Cousins to make something happen and he made two outstanding throws and got two outstanding catches leading to a 17-14 win and even the Redskins record at 4-4. The Westgate paid out the Redskins money-line at +350.

                        "We did okay for losing our three biggest decisions," said Las Vegas Westage SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. "The Eagles, Rams and Saints were the worst for us, but we made it up through the rest of the day and it was capped off with Seattle losing. That game was huge for us because it knocked out big money-line parlays and teasers. We needed one of the big favorites to go down and got it here."

                        One of the most attractive games of the day was Kansas City at Dallas (-2.5) in the afternoon, but the Cowboys 28-17 win was kind of a non-decision just because action was so split on each side. William Hill sports books had 57 percent of their tickets written on that game siding with the Chiefs. However, McCormick said his Stations book did well with the Cowboys game staying 'under' (53). He said they had lots more action on the totals this week than usual.

                        "Despite a bunch of the good teams having byes and the seven early games being less than attractive, we still had a great crowd here which is sort of a continuation from Friday and Saturday with the Breeders' Cup," said Kornegay. "We were a small winner on Saturday with college football. We'll be rooting for Miami to secure a nice day."
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                        Comment


                        • Monday Night Football Best Bets:

                          NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

                          11/05/2017 5-8-1 38.46% -19.00
                          11/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

                          Totals.............6 - 9 - 1......40.00%....-19.50


                          Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

                          11/05/2017................0 - 2..................-11.00..............3 - 1............+9.50...............-1.50
                          11/02/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 0............+0.00...............+5.00

                          Totals........................1 - 2..................-6.00...............3 - 1.............+9.50...............+3.50


                          *******************

                          11 /02 / 17 -Thursday Night POM........New York Jets + 3....34 - 21............Winner
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                          Comment


                          • MONDAY, NOVEMBER 6
                            GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


                            DET at GB 08:30 PM

                            DET -2.0 *****

                            U 42.5 *****
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                            Comment


                            • Packers lose 3rd straight, seek answers without Rodgers
                              November 7, 2017


                              GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) Aaron Rodgers is the great equalizer for the Green Bay Packers, a once-in-a-generation type of talent who can help mask mistakes and turn busted plays into big gains.

                              Without him, miscues are magnified and the margin of error shrinks considerably for the Packers.

                              It happened again Monday night when Green Bay fell 30-17 to the Detroit Lions for its third straight loss, a streak that started when Rodgers hurt his collarbone on Oct. 15 at Minnesota.

                              ''We're a better team than what we're putting on film, regardless of whether (Rodgers) is in there or not,'' receiver Davante Adams said. ''We've still got ... enough talent in here where we can win these types of games.''

                              The Packers were coming off a bye, exuding optimism that an extra week of rest and preparation could help turn things around. Coming into the game, coach Mike McCarthy in part stressed the need to get the ball more to his playmaking receivers.

                              They did just that, though most of the opportunities came on short passes.

                              Adams had seven catches for 53 yards with a long of 9. Jordy Nelson finished with four catches for 35 yards. He was blanketed by Lions cornerback Darius Slay on a couple deep shots in the third quarter while the game was still competitive.

                              Randall Cobb had five catches for 58 yards, including a 46-yard gain on a catch-and-run that set up Hundley's 1-yard quarterback sneak that made it 20-10 with 9:52 left.

                              Hundley was 26 of 36 for 245 yards, though he rarely took deep shots, especially in the first half. He nearly connected on one long throw to Adams, who had a step on the cornerback down the sideline, but the ball bounced off fingertips.

                              ''This game they were giving us the underneath stuff,'' Hundley said. ''You have to take what's given.''

                              McCarthy stood by Hundley, who is most effective out of the pocket and when he can use his legs.

                              The Packers had other problems, too, rushing for 78 yards on 17 carries. They were just 2 of 9 on third downs.

                              ''Brett Hundley played better tonight and I have great faith in Brett Hundley. Brett Hundley's not our issue,'' McCarthy said.

                              The defense got burned on third downs by Detroit's Matthew Stafford, who was 26 of 33 for 361 yards and two scores to Marvin Jones. The Lions were 8 of 13 on third-down conversions.

                              The Lions' opening score was set up by an unnecessary roughness penalty on Mike Daniels, after the defensive lineman appeared to head-butt Detroit center Travis Swanson. The flag negated an incompletion on third-and-15 that would have forced the Lions to punt from their own 25.

                              Stafford connected with Jones for the touchdown pass five plays later.

                              ''I really take that on myself. If we stop them there, then we get a short field ... I let the emotions get the best of me,'' Daniels said.

                              With Rodgers in uniform, the Packers have a better chance to punch back on the scoreboard. The defense can take more chances and still know that Rodgers can win a shootout.

                              They need to figure out quickly how to win without him.

                              ''We come out winning Super Bowls around here. If we keep playing like this, it's not going to be pretty,'' cornerback Davon House said. ''We're 4-4, with how many games left? Eight games left. We've got to pull together - somehow, some way.''
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                              • Monday Night Football Best Bets:

                                NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

                                11/06/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
                                11/05/2017 5-8-1 38.46% -19.00
                                11/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

                                Totals.............7 - 10 - 1......41.17%....-20.00


                                Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

                                11/06/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 1.............-5.50................-0.50
                                11/05/2017................0 - 2..................-11.00..............3 - 1............+9.50................-1.50
                                11/02/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 0............+0.00...............+5.00

                                Totals........................2 - 2..................-1.00................3 - 2.............+4.00..............+3.00



                                *******************

                                11 /02 / 17 -Thursday Night POM........New York Jets + 3....34 - 21............Winner
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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