The Bum's 2017 College Football Picks-Trends-News Etc. !

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ACC Report - Week 3
September 14, 2017

2017 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 1-1 0-1 0-2 0-2

Clemson 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1

Duke 2-0 0-0 2-0 2-0

Florida State 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-1

Georgia Tech 1-1 0-0 2-0 1-1

Louisville 2-0 1-0 1-1 1-1

Miami (Fla.) 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-1

North Carolina 0-2 0-1 0-2 2-0

North Carolina State 1-1 0-0 0-2 2-0

Pittsburgh 1-1 0-0 0-1-1 0-2

Syracuse 1-1 0-0 0-2 0-2

Virginia 1-1 0-0 0-2 0-2

Virginia Tech 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-1-1

Wake Forest 2-0 1-0 2-0 1-1

Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Cowboys head east to battle the Panthers in an ACC-Big 12 matchup. OK State is 4-0 ATS over their past four non-conference battles, and 5-1 ATS in their past six trips away from home. The No. 8 team in the nation has looked very good, including a dominating 44-7 win at South Alabama last week. The Cowboys are a perfect 2-0 ATS so far. The Panthers haven't covered in two tries so far this season, and they're 0-3-1 ATS over their past four outings. They're also a dismal 5-15-1 ATS over their past 21 non-conference tilts, and 7-19 ATS in their past 26 games at home.

Connecticut at Virginia (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Connecticut is back on the field for the first time since Aug. 31, which has to seem like an eternity to the Huskies. Their game last week against South Florida was wiped out as the Bulls prepared for Hurricane Irma, and that game will not be made up. They're rested and ready to go against a Virginia team that was hammered last week by visiting Indiana. The Cavaliers enter as 10-point favorites, a role they haven't been terribly successful in the recent past. They failed to cover a double-digit spread against William & Mary in their opener, and they're 0-3 ATS over their past three instances as a favorite of 10 or more points dating back to 2014. Unfortunately for UConn, they're 1-5 ATS over their past six as an underdog of 10 or more points. The Huskies are also 5-20-2 ATS across their past 27 non-conference battles, and 6-20-1 ATS in their past 27 on the road.

Baylor at Duke (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m. ET)
It has been a nightmare start for the Bears, dropping their opener to FCS Liberty and then providing Texas-San Antonio with its first-ever victory against a Power 5 club. Baylor has failed to cover seven of their past nine overall, and they're 1-5 ATS in their past six non-conference battles. On the flip side, Duke stomped FCS North Carolina Central in their opener and then they manhandled Northwestern last week by a 41-14 count to move to 2-0 SU/ATS. They're 5-0 ATS in their past five home games, and 21-6-1 ATS in the past 28 non-conference tilts. Total bettors might be interested to know the Bears have seen the 'under' cash in five of the past six non-conference games while going 5-2 in their past seven on the road. The 'over' is 2-0 this season for Duke, and 4-0 in their past four overall, although the under has hit in six of their past eight at home.

Utah State at Wake Forest (ACC Network, 3:00 p.m.)
The Aggies head to Winston-Salem to battle the Demon Deacons, looking to improve after getting pounded in Madison in their first road trip. Utah State bounced back to spank Idaho State by a 51-13 count last weekend as the 'over' cashed for the second game in as many outings. Wake Forest has opened 2-0 SU/ATS, including a victory at Boston College in their conference opener. The Deacs are averaging 42.5 PPG through two games while allowing just 8.5 PPG on defense. As such, they opened as a favorite of 15 points, bet down to 13 1/2 as of Wednesday evening. Since Sept. 2015, the Deacs are 0-4 ATS over their past four as favorites of six or more points.

Virginia Tech at East Carolina (CBS Sports Network, 3:30 p.m.)
The Hokies roll into Greenville, N.C. looking to add to the woes of the Pirates. Virginia Tech took care of West Virginia in a neutral-site game earlier this season, covering a five-point number, but last week they took a step back. The defense was stout, pitching a shutout against FCS Delaware, but they won 27-0 and didn't come close to covering the 41-point number. Of course, they were working on a short week after playing a rare Sunday game, and there was also the hangover after playing a high-profile game the previous week. East Carolina was pounded by FCS James Madison, 34-14, and they were rolled by West Virginia, a common opponent, by a 56-20 score in Morgantown. As such, the Hokies are more than a three-touchdown favorite. The Pirates were paddled 54-17 by the Hokies last season in Blacksburg, and similar results likely can be expected this year.

North Carolina at Old Dominion (No National TV, 3:30 p.m.)
The Tar Heels head to the Tidewater looking for their first win after a pair of home losses to kick off their season. On the flip side, Old Dominion has picked up wins against UAlbany and at Massachusetts. Their offense has been a little inconsistent, averaging just 24.0 PPG, but their defense has been solid, allowing just 12.0 PPG. The 'under' has hit in each of their games to date. On the flip side, the 'over' has hit in each of UNC's games, as they're averaging 32.5 PPG and they have allowed 41.0 PPG so far. North Carolina is 0-2 ATS to date. The Monarchs are 3-10 ATS in their past 13 non-conference battles and 1-8 ATS in their past nine on field turf. However, they are an impressive 7-2-2 ATS in their past 11 games in Norfolk.

Central Michigan at Syracuse (ACC Network, 3:30 p.m.)
The Chippewas struggled in their opener against FCS Rhode Island, but they righted the ship with an emphatic victory on the road in Kansas. The last time these two schools player, it was Syracuse coming away with a 30-27 win in overtime at CMU on Sept. 19, 2015. Syracuse looked good in their opener against an FCS school, Central Connecticut State, but they were surprised at the Carrier Dome by Middle Tennesse last week by a 30-23 score. So far, the 'Cuse is 2-0 ATS through two games with the 'under' also going 2-0. The Chips are 9-4-1 ATS over their past 14 non-conference battles, although they're still just 1-7 ATS over their past eight against ACC teams. The Orange have failed to cover four in a row at home, and they're 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference games, but an impressive 14-3-1 ATS in their past 18 against MAC foes.

Notre Dame at Boston College (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
The Irish hook up with the Eagles in Chestnut Hill, a school that has been a major thorn in the side of Notre Dame over the years. Notre Dame should be mighty angry after a 20-19 setback on their home turf against Georgia last week, but will B.C. add to their woes? Notre Dame managed just 1.5 yards per rush last week and will need to do better. They barely topped Boston College in a game at Fenway Park on Nov. 21, 2015, the last time these teams hooked up. The Irish have won the past five 'Holy Wars', but three of the five games have been decided by four points or less. Before that was a six-game Eagles run. The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 in this series, with the road team cashing in four of the past five. The Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS across the past six meetings. Total bettors will like the fact the 'under' is 7-0 in the past seven in this series, with the under 4-1 in the past five at Alumni Stadium.

Clemson at Louisville (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
In a marquee matchup, the Tigers and Cardinals hook up on the banks of the Ohio River in Louisville. The Tigers look to stay hot against the number, as they're 4-0 ATS in their past four, and 4-1 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall record. However, they're a dismal 1-5 ATS over their past six inside the conference. The Cards struggled against Purdue earlier in the season, barely winning a neutral-site game, but they rebounded nicely with a win and cover in North Carolina in their conference opener. They are still just 1-4 ATS over their past five home outings, and they're 1-5 ATS in the past six overall and 0-4 ATS in their past four against a team with a winning overall mark. The over has hit in five in a row with Clemson on the road, while going 4-1 in the past five ACC games. Louisville has hit the over in nine of the past 12 confernce tilts. Louisville looks to avenge a 42-36 loss at Death Valley last season.

Other Games
Furman at North Carolina State (ACC Network, 12:20 p.m.)
Miami, Florida at Florida State (CANCELED)
Georgia Tech at UCF (CANCELED)

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Big 12 Report - Week 3
September 14, 2017

2017 BIG 12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Baylor 0-2 0-0 0-2 1-1

Iowa State 1-1 0-0 2-0 2-0

Kansas 1-1 0-0 0-2 2-0

Kansas State 2-0 0-0 2-0 2-0

Oklahoma 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1

Oklahoma State 2-0 0-0 2-0 1-1

Texas 1-1 0-0 1-1 1-1

Texas Christian 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-2

Texas Tech 1-0 0-0 1-0 0-1

West Virginia 1-1 0-0 1-1 1-0-1

Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Cowboys head east to battle the Panthers in an ACC-Big 12 matchup. OK State is 4-0 ATS over their past four non-conference battles, and 5-1 ATS in their past six trips away from home. The No. 8 team in the nation has looked very good, including a dominating 44-7 win at South Alabama last week. The Cowboys are a perfect 2-0 ATS so far. The Panthers haven't covered in two tries so far this season, and they're 0-3-1 ATS over their past four outings. They're also a dismal 5-15-1 ATS over their past 21 non-conference tilts, and 7-19 ATS in their past 26 games at home.

Kansas at Ohio (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m.)
The Jayhawks hit the road for Athens looking to rebound after their first loss of the season. Kansas was favored last week against another MAC team, Central Michigan, but the Chippewas routed them. The Jayhawks were searching for back-to-back victories for the first time since 2011, but it wasn't meant to be. Kansas enters just 9-19 ATS over their past 28 games and 11-30-1 ATS over their past 42 games on the road. Kansas is also 5-15-1 ATS acros their past 21 games outside of the conference, too. Ohio has handled themselves much better, going 11-3 ATS in their past 14 non-conference games. The Bobcats went to Lawrence and picked up a 37-21 victory. Meanwhile, Kansas hasn't won on the road since 2009, dropping 39 true road outings in a row.

Iowa State at Akron (CBS Sports Network, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Akron opened with a 52-0 thumping from Penn State before rebounding at home with a 52-3 victory against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. It's likely the results are somewhere in the middle of both of those outings with Iowa State coming to town. And they'll be very angry, too, after suffering a 44-41 overtime setback against rival Iowa last week. Iowa State has averaged 41.5 PPG while allowing 34.0 PPG. As such, the over has hit in each of their two games while going 2-0 ATS. I-State opened as a 9 1/2-point favorite and it has been bet up to 10 1/2 as of Thursday morning.

Baylor at Duke (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m. ET)
It has been a nightmare start for the Bears, dropping their opener to FCS Liberty and then providing Texas-San Antonio with its first-ever victory against a Power 5 club. Baylor has failed to cover seven of their past nine overall, and they're 1-5 ATS in their past six non-conference battles. On the flip side, Duke stomped FCS North Carolina Central in their opener and then they manhandled Northwestern last week by a 41-14 count to move to 2-0 SU/ATS. They're 5-0 ATS in their past five home games, and 21-6-1 ATS in the past 28 non-conference tilts. Total bettors might be interested to know the Bears have seen the 'under' cash in five of the past six non-conference games while going 5-2 in their past seven on the road. The 'over' is 2-0 this season for Duke, and 4-0 in their past four overall, although the under has hit in six of their past eight at home.

Southern Methodist at Texas Christian (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
The Mustangs head across the Metroplex to Fort Worth looking to take care of the Horned Frogs. Both teams have opened 2-0 SU, but they have taken different routes to get there. TCU romped against FCS Jackson State in the opener, winning 63-0. They then hit the road and had a convincing 28-7 win at Arkansas, hitting the 'under' for the second straight game. SMU routed Stephen F. Austin by a 58-14 score, covering a 30-point number, before pounding North Texas in a 54-32 score. The Mustangs are 2-0 ATS, averaging 56.0 PPG in Chad Morris' offense. The 'over' has hit in their two outings. Last season they dropped a 33-3 game at home to TCU. The Mustangs enter 5-1 ATS in their past six road outings, while the Frogs are 0-9 ATS across their past nine home outings.

Tulane at Oklahoma (No National TV, 6:00 p.m.)
The Green Wave had a near miss at Navy last week, falling 23-21. The Sooners picked up an impressive road win at Ohio State, jumping up to No. 2 in the rankings. Will there be a hangover this weekend? Vegas believes that won't be the case, as the Sooners are favored by five touchdowns. The Green Wave are an impressive 6-1 ATS over their past seven non-conference games, while cashing in eight of the past 11 road outings. The Sooners have cashed in six straight home games. The 'over' is 4-0 in Tulane's past four non-conference tilts, while the under is 8-2 over their past 10 against teams with a winning record. The under is 5-1 in Oklahoma's past six home games and 6-2 in their past eight overall.

Kansas State at Vanderbilt (ESPNU, 7:30 p.m.)
K-State rolls into Nashville in a Big 12-SEC showdown. They have scored 55 points in each of their first two games, and that will be a big test for the Commodores and their defense. Vandy allowed just six points in their opener at Middle Tennesse, and they blanked FCS Alabama A&M last weekend. The 'under' has hit in each of their first two outings. The 'over' has hit in the first two for K-State, as the Wildcats have yielded 13.0 PPG. The over is 7-1 in Kansas State's past eight games overall, and 4-1 in their past five non-conference battles. The over is 4-1 in Vandy's past five home games and 6-1 in their past seven at home against a team with a winning road mark.

Arizona State at Texas Tech (No National TV, 8:00 p.m. ET)
The Sun Devils head to Lubbock to tangle with the high-octane Red Raiders. After a close shave against New Mexico State in their opener, AZ State was tripped up 30-20 by San Diego State at home. They enter the game 0-2 ATS with the 'under' 2-0 so far. Defense has been an issue, allowing 30.5 PPG, and that's never good when preparing for Texas Tech. Remember, the last time these teams played on Sept. 10, 2016, it was a 68-55 shootout in favor of the Sun Devils. Tech will be gunning for revenge. They humped up on FCS Eastern Washington back on Sept. 2, winning by a 56-10 score as 12-point favorites. Tech is favored by seven to 7 1/2 points, depending on the shop.

Texas at Southern California (FOX, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Will we get the good Longhorns or bad Longhorns in Saturday's rematch with USC? Texas was shocked 51-41 by Maryland in their opener, but took out their aggressions on San Jose State last week by a 56-0 score. What we know about Texas is that they can score, but which defense will show up? Defense did well enough to USC last week, as they topped Stanford 42-24 for a win in the conference opener. The Trojans have seen the over cash in each of their first two, as they're averaging 45.5 PPG while yielding 27.5 PPG. These teams last met in a memorable National Championship game in 2016, with Texas coming out on top 41-38. One of these teams is championship caliber (USC), and the other would like to spoil their title dreams again (Texas).

Other Game
Delaware State at West Virginia (No National TV, 12:00 p.m.)

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New Mexico at Boise State
September 12, 2017

The Mountain West has the Thursday Night spotlight this week in a matchup of two of the three teams that finished tied on top of the Mountain division last season. New Mexico and Boise State both enter Thursday night coming off disappointing losses last Saturday with this being a critical game to keep the season’s goals on track.

Match-up: New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos
Venue: At Albertson’s Stadium in Boise, Idaho
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 14, 7:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Boise State -15, Over/Under 58½
Last Meeting: 2016, at New Mexico, Boise State (-18) 49, New Mexico 21

Productive veteran quarterbacks entered the 2017 season leading Boise State and New Mexico with both teams hoping to build on successful 2016-17 seasons though with two of the least experienced teams in the conference. Wyoming went to the MWC title game last season, but Boise State and New Mexico finished with respectable 10 and 9 win seasons going 6-2 in league play for a three-way tie on top of the division. After opening week wins, both teams lost last week in tight games and there are questions at the quarterback position this week on both sides.

2016 Mountain West first team quarterback Brett Rypien played sparingly in last week’s loss to Washington State. Commentators speculated he was benched but later it was announced he suffered an undisclosed injury after taking a sack. Senior backup Montell Cozart provided a spark for the Broncos with a rushing and passing presence and the Broncos would take a 31-10 lead early in the fourth quarter vs. the nationally ranked Cougars. The lead melted away with a Cozart interception returned for a touchdown with about six minutes to go being a critical play. Rypien’s status will likely be unclear until game day and it could change the Broncos offensive look and game plan.

While Rypien will be the starter if healthy, the situation for New Mexico under center might be less firm. Senior Lamar Jordan started four games last season and rushed for over 800 yards while passing for nearly 700 yards for the Lobos. With the team falling behind last week against New Mexico State, freshman Tevaka Tuioti was given a chance and he led the Lobos to 23 fourth quarter points with the team failing on a two-point conversion that would have tied the game late in a 30-28 home loss to rival New Mexico State. Bob Davie has announced that Jordan will continue to start, but the temptation to give Tuioti another opportunity could be there if there are more struggles with difficult games ahead the next three weeks.

New Mexico rushed for 350 yards per game last season on 6.6 yards per carry, but this season the numbers are down significantly through two weeks despite what should have been two of the easier games on the schedule, averaging 217 yards on 5.6 yards per carry vs. FCS Abilene Christian and New Mexico State. With road games still remaining after this game at Tulsa, at Wyoming, at Texas A&M, and at San Diego State, it looks very unlikely that the Lobos will be able to improve in wins for a fourth straight season and the opportunity to get to a third straight bowl game will be in the balance the next few weeks.

In eight of the last 10 seasons, Boise State has won at least 10 games and the program has often been in the conversation about being a top team outside of the power 5 conferences. The Broncos have been surpassed by San Diego State as the Mountain West leaders the past two years and the opportunity for a New Year’s Day bowl game looks slim with difficult games remaining with Virginia, at BYU, at San Diego State, and at Colorado State. Bryan Harsin figures to be mentioned as a candidate for potential openings with a strong track record in three seasons in Boise State as well as a strong season at Arkansas State in 2013, but the program is not in as strong of a position as it was a few years ago.

While it didn’t matter last season, New Mexico figures to have a strong rushing edge in this matchup again. Even with Cozart adding over 100 yards on the ground from the quarterback position, the Broncos have gained just 3.5 yards per rush this season. An offensive line with three new starters appears likely to have a second straight disappointing season as the rushing averages for the Broncos have dropped each of the last two years. Senior Cedrick Wilson is on pace to be one of the top receivers in the conference with 13 catches and 212 yards this season as a big play threat for the Broncos.

Ultimately this game could come down to which team can handle the emotions of a difficult defeat on a short week. The Broncos always are a threat for an undefeated season and taking an early September loss could be a challenge though the Broncos have actually lost one of their first two games in now five of the last six seasons. For a New Mexico squad with a lot of key players missing from the best team the program has had in a nearly decade, losing twice in a row to a rival will sting. This could be a critical juncture in the season as the Lobos figure to be dogged in each of the next three games as a 1-4 start might become a reality for a program that has made great positive strides the last two years.

Last Season: A 4-0 nationally ranked Broncos squad that many pegged for a possible undefeated season went to Albuquerque on an early October Friday night and won with ease. After trading scores in the first quarter, the Broncos scored five consecutive touchdowns to take a 42-7 halftime lead. New Mexico added two scores in the final eight minutes to make the final score a bit more respectable and make for a bit of a deceptive box score with the Broncos only posting a 456-421 yardage edge, but with about half of that total for the Lobos coming on their final three possessions with the game out of reach. Brett Rypien had a huge game with nearly 400 yards passing and five touchdowns as the Broncos won and covered easily despite a 382-65 rushing edge for New Mexico with the only turnover of the game not leading to any points on a Hail Mary interception just before halftime.

Historical Trends:

-- These teams have met eight times since 1999 and in each of the last six seasons with Boise State winning seven of eight meetings but going just 3-5 ATS.

-- The last game in Boise featured a monumental upset for the Lobos, winning 31-24 as a +30½-point underdog and the Lobos had covered in every Mountain West meeting going back to 2011 until last season.

-- Boise State owns a 137-27 S/U mark at home since 1999 but a once amazing ATS record has deteriorated in recent years with the Broncos 13-29-1 ATS at home since 2010, including entering this game on a 0-9-1 ATS run the past 10 home games.

-- Since 2011, Boise State is on a 7-24-1 ATS run as a double-digit home favorite despite only losing S/U in four of those games.

-- Since Bob Davie took over in 2012, New Mexico is 28-37 S/U and 31-31-2 ATS heading into this game. In that span the Lobos are 16-11-2 ATS on the road and 21-18-2 ATS as an underdog, including 14-8-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB Aug/Sept Best Bets: ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/14/2017 0-0-0 0.00% +0

09/09/2017 19-21-3 47.50% -20.50

09/08/2017 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00

09/07/2017 0-1-0 0.00% -5.50

09/04/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

09/03/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50

09/02/2017 11-21-0 34.38% -60.50

09/01/2017 6-3-0 66.67% +13.50

08/31/2017 9-4-0 69.23% +23.00

08/26/2017 5-5-0 50.00% -2.50

Totals:..........58 - 57 - 3........50.43%....-23.50

BEST BETS WILL HAVE **********



THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

UNM at BSU 08:00 PM

BSU -14.5

U 58.5

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Boise State wins, but New Mexico cashes
September 14, 2017

BOISE, Idaho (AP) Jake Roh caught two touchdown passes and took a direct snap for a 6-yard TD run, and Boise State pulled away in the fourth quarter to beat New Mexico 28-14 on Thursday night in the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams.

Playing five days after losing a triple-overtime heartbreaker at Washington State, the Broncos (2-1) used two big special teams plays early in the fourth quarter to setup Roh's touchdown run that finally gave Boise State some cushion. Joel Velazquez had a 63-yard punt downed at the New Mexico 1. After the Lobos went three-and-out and punted from their end zone, Avery Williams returned a short punt 29 yards to the New Mexico 17. Three plays later, Boise State's versatile tight end rumbled into the end zone for a two-touchdown lead.

Montrell Cozart was 15 of 19 for 137 yards passing, and added 71 yards rushing including a 28-yard TD run in the first quarter. He threw a 5-yard TD to Roh in the first half and flipped a 15-yard TD pass to Roh in the fourth when it appeared Cozart was going to run. Cozart got the start with Brett Rypien out due to injury. Rypien went through some throwing work pregame but did not suit up. Rypien appeared to suffer a concussion in the loss to Washington State.

New Mexico (1-2) was forced to use third string quarterback Coltin Gerhart after starter Lamar Jordan was knocked out late in the first half with a concussion. Jordan was hit by Boise State's Chase Hatada after throwing the ball away. Hatada was flagged for targeting and ejected.

Gerhart was 7-of-13 passing for 67 yards and threw a 14-yard touchdown to Anselem Umeh late in the fourth. Gerhart added 49 yards rushing. Jordan rushed for 20 yards and completed one pass before being injured. New Mexico was without backup Tevaka Tuioti, who did not make the trip due to injury.

Tyrone Owens added 46 yards rushing and a 5-yard touchdown for the Lobos.

THE TAKEAWAY

New Mexico: The Lobos were held to 198 yards rushing as the triple-option offense had its inconsistencies. It was the second straight week the Lobos run game was held under 200 yards after rushing for 176 in last week's loss to New Mexico State.

Boise State: While the Broncos got the victory, it was an offensive struggle for much of the night. Boise State finished with 264 total yards and had just two plays of more than 20 yards. The short week likely played a part in the problems, but the offense will be worth watching the next few weeks.

UP NEXT

New Mexico: The Lobos travel to Tulsa on Saturday, Sept. 23.

Boise State: The Broncos host Virginia next Friday.

[StarDust Bum]

SEC Notebook - Week 3
September 14, 2017


Let’s start this week’s SEC Notebook with a look at our Power Rankings for the conference going into Week 3:

1-Alabama
2-LSU
3-Georgia
4-Auburn
5-South Carolina
6-Vanderbilt
7-Florida
8-Mississippi State
9-Tennessee
10-Texas A&M
11-Ole Miss
12-Kentucky
13-Arkansas
14-Missouri

Florida hasn’t started 0-2 since 1971. In fact, the Gators are 0-1 for the first time since 1989 when Ole Miss won a 24-19 decision at The Swamp. They saw their Week 2 game vs. No. Colorado postponed due to Hurricane Irma, so UF will attempt to win its first game of 2017 against Tennessee. These bitter SEC East rivals will collide in Gainesville at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

As of Thursday morning, most betting shops had Florida (0-1 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) listed as a 4.5 or five-point favorite with a total of 49.5. The Volunteers were +170 to win outright at The Swamp for the first time since 2003 when Casey Clausen led UT to victory over Ron Zook’s squad.

UF will be without its nine previously suspended players, including its best running back (Jordan Scarlett) and wide receiver (Antonio Callaway). Also, starting LB Kylan Johnson is ‘out’ with a leg injury. On the bright side, TE DeAndre Goolsby has been upgraded to ‘probable’ after Jim McElwain implied he was out for an indefinite period of time last week. Goolsby is a key piece in UF’s offense after hauling in 38 receptions for 342 yards and three TDs last season.

Tennessee is dealing with a number of injuries. Starting OT Chance Hall and LB Darrin Kirkland were lost to season-enders in August. Now starting WR Jauan Jennings is out for the year with a wrist injury. Jennings had 40 catches for 580 yards and seven TDs in ’16. Evan Berry, a reserve DB and two-time first-team All-SEC kick returner who was the SEC Special Teams Player of the Year in 2015, is listed as ‘questionable’ with an undisclosed injury. Also, starting senior CB Justin Martin is ‘questionable’ with a stinger.

Florida has compiled a 4-5 spread record in nine games as a home favorite during McElwain’s three-year tenure. The Volunteers own a 4-5-1 spread record in 10 games as road underdogs on Butch Jones’s watch. The Gators raced out to a 21-0 lead in last year’s encounter at Neyland Stadium, only to see Tennessee score 38 unanswered points. The Vols eventually captured a 38-28 win as 4.5-point home ‘chalk’ to snap an 11-game losing streak to UF.

In Its last visit to Gainesville, UT took a 26-14 lead with 10:19 remaining in the fourth quarter. With a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter, every head coach on this planet not named Zook, Les Miles or Butch Jones knows you have to go for two because there’s no difference between a 12 and 13-point lead when the opponent almost certainly doesn’t have enough time to get three more offensive possessions. Of course, Jones chose to go for one and, rightfully so, it came back to haunt him.

Florida responded with a 16-play, 86-yard TD drive to pull within 27-21. Then with less than a minute remaining on a 4th-and-14 play, Will Grier found Callaway for a first down, but Callaway made a slick move toward the sideline, picked up a great block from Brandon Powell and went the distance to give UF the lead. UT’s 55-yard field goal to win it on the game’s final play looked to be good initially before sailing wide right.

Not only did Jones think the kick was good and start to celebrate like a clown, he then defended his decision to go for one by perplexingly and cowardly pointing out that his “standard two-point chart” told him to go for one. Okay, then!

South Carolina and Vanderbilt have been a surprise to some. Not to this space, though, as we’ve been touting the 2017 Gamecocks since late in the 2016 campaign. Our thoughts on this squad were delivered in great detail way back in July.

Will Muschamp’s team won a 35-28 decision over North Carolina St. as a seven-point underdog in Week 1. Then in Week 2, USC went to Missouri and fell behind 10-0 early, only to respond with a 31-3 run en route to a 31-13 victory as a three-point ‘dog.

Trailing 10-0, junior Deebo Samuel returned his second kickoff of the season for a touchdown (the other came on the first play of the season against the Wolfpack). On the first play of Missouri’s next drive, the prize of Muschamp’s 2017 recruiting class, true freshman cornerback Jamyest Williams, picked off Drew Lock for the first interception of his career. On the very next play, Samuel took a jet sweep 25 yards to the house. In other words, a four-play stretch netted two TDs from Samuel and a double-digit road deficit was erased, as South Carolina took the lead for good.

USC played turnover-free football, with sophomore quarterback Jake Bentley throwing one TD to improve his touchdown-to-interception ratio to 4/1 for the year. Junior TE Hayden Hurst got involved against the Tigers, scoring a pair of TDs on a 39-yard pass from Bentley and on a two-yard run on a third-and-goal play. Hurst showed his speed on the TD catch, while it was his size and power on display when he slipped multiple tackles to find the end zone on his running score.

The South Carolina defense held a Missouri offense that scored 72 points in Week 1 to merely 13. Now the Gamecocks bring a 2-0 record into their home opener Saturday night vs. Kentucky.

As of early Thursday morning, South Carolina was installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 51 at most books. The Wildcats were +210 on the money line (risk $100 to win $210).

South Carolina has dropped three in a row to UK, including last year’s 17-10 setback in Lexington. These teams have played four consecutive one-possession games dating back to USC’s 35-28 win in 2013.

Kentucky (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) has now won nine of its last 12 regular-season games. The Wildcats didn’t wow anyone with a win at So. Miss (24-17) or vs. Eastern Ky. (27-16), but they nonetheless enter their SEC lid-lifter undefeated.

Jordan Jones, UK’s top defensive player, is dealing with a shoulder injury and is listed as ‘questionable.’ Jones was a second-team All-SEC selection as a sophomore last year when he recorded 109 tackles, four sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss, nine QB hurries and four passes broken up. WR Dorian Baker remains sidelined indefinitely for the ‘Cats.

Mark Stoops’s team has covered the spread in each of its last four games as a road underdog, but UK is just 9-9 ATS as a road ‘dog during his five-year tenure. Meanwhile, Muschamp went 2-2 ATS in four games as a home favorite during his first year in Columbia.

The SEC Network will have the UK-USC telecast at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

Vanderbilt, No. 25 in my Power Rankings this week, will take on Kansas State on ESPNU at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. The Commodores have looked extremely impressive in wins at Middle Tennessee and vs. Alabama A&M, thumping those foes by a combined score of 70-6.

Junior Kyle Shurmur came of age last November and is on fire through two games, completing 35-of-46 passes for 498 yards and seven TDs without an interception. He’s also rushed for a score. The ‘Dores scored TDs on their first three drives in their opener and on their first four drives last week. They have one of the nation’s top RBs in Ralph Webb, who is already the school’s all-time leading rusher.

Vanderbilt owns an 8-3 spread record in 11 games as a home underdog during Derek Mason’s four-year tenure. The Commodores have won outright in four consecutive home games dating back to last year, and each victory has come by a margin of at least 11 points.

As of Thursday morning, most spots had Kansas State listed as a 3.5 or four-point favorite. The money-line return on Vandy was in the +155 neighborhood (risk $100 to win $155).

LSU (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) has won outright an eye-opening 16 times in its last 17 games against Mississippi State. The lone defeat came when Dak Prescott shredded the Tigers in Baton Rouge in 2014. When these SEC West adversaries squared off at Tiger Stadium last season, the Bulldogs trimmed a 23-3 deficit in the four quarter to 23-20 and had the ball in LSU territory in the closing minute. The rally fell short, but LSU backers were left furious by the backdoor cover for MSU as a 13.5-point road underdog.

LSU’s defense didn’t allow BYU to cross midfield in a dominant 27-0 win in its opener at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans two weeks ago. The Tigers took the cash as 14.5-point favorites, while the 27 combined points fell ‘under’ the 47.5-point total. They followed up that win with a 45-10 non-covering triumph over Chattanooga as 36.5-point home ‘chalk’ in Week 2.

Mississippi State (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) has captured wins vs. Charleston Southern (49-0) and at Louisiana Tech (52-21). Led by new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, the Bulldogs limited Charleston Southern to merely two first downs. Then they went to Ruston and avenged a 2008 loss in Sylvester Croom’s final season as HC in Starkville.

Through two games, junior QB Nick Fitzgerald has thrown for 363 yards with a 5/1 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for 152 yards and three TDs on just 17 attempts (8.9 yards per carry!). Meanwhile, LSU’s Derrius Guice has run for 224 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC.

LSU will get star pass rusher Arden Key back from a shoulder injury to make his season debut. Key was a second-team All-SEC selection last year when he produced 56 tackles, 12 sacks, 11 QB hurries and three forced fumbles.

As of early Thursday morning, most spots had LSU favored by 7.5 with a total of 51 points. The Bulldogs were available on the money line for a +250 payout.

Dan Mullen owns a 10-10 spread record in 20 games as a home underdog during his nine-year tenure. LSU went 2-0 ATS as a road favorite after Ed Orgeron took over for Les Miles last year.

Kickoff in Starkville at Davis-Wade Stadium is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Ole Miss (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) has won a pair of home games over South Alabama (47-27) and UT-Martin (45-23). The Rebels allowed a 47-13 fourth-quarter lead to get away against the Jaguars, who posted a backdoor cover as 22-point road ‘dogs. They failed to take the cash vs. UT-Martin as a 32.5-point home fave.

Sophomore QB Shea Patterson has been nothing short of sensational, completing 60-of-78 passes (76.9%) for 918 yards and nine TDs compared to only one interception. WR A.J. Brown, another true sophomore, has brought down 16 catches for 389 yards and four TDs.

As of Thursday morning, most books had Ole Miss favored by 3.5 points for its road game at California. The total was 72, while the Golden Bears were +155 to win outright.

The Justin Wilcox Era is off to a nice start in Berkeley. Wilcox, who did a fantastic job as Wisconsin’s defensive coordinator last year after Dave Aranda left the Badgers to take the DC post at LSU, led Cal to a 35-30 win at North Carolina (in a noon Eastern game) as a 13-point road ‘dog in Week 1. Cal won a 33-20 decision over Weber State at home last week.

ESPN will provide the broadcast at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.

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Big Ten Report - Week 3
September 14, 2017

2017 BIG 10 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Illinois 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-2

Indiana 1-1 0-1 1-1 2-0

Iowa 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1

Maryland 2-0 0-0 2-0 2-0

Michigan 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1

Michigan State 2-0 0-0 2-0 0-2

Minnesota 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1

Nebraska 1-1 0-0 1-1 2-0

Northwestern 1-1 0-0 0-2 1-1

Ohio State 1-1 1-0 1-1 1-1

Penn State 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-2

Purdue 1-1 0-0 2-0 1-1

Rutgers 0-2 0-0 1-1 0-2

Wisconsin 2-0 0-0 1-1 1-1

Illinois at South Florida (-17) - (Friday, ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)

The Illini are surprisingly 2-0 on the season. The Illinois win total before the season that was set by the oddsmakers was 3.5 so they are over half way there in just two weeks. After getting outplayed in week one (-159 yards) yet still getting a win over Ball State the Illini looked much better last week. After getting shut down on the ground vs Ball State gaining 2.4 YPC, they put up nearly 200 yards on the ground last week. The young Illinois defense, 3 freshmen in the starting line-up, held the high powered WKU attack (45 PPG last year) to just 7 points on only 244 total yards (4.1 yards per play). To give you some perspective on that defensive performance, the Hilltoppers had over 400 yards of total offense in every game last year with the exception of their tilt with Alabama when the Tide held them to 239.

USF comes in with a 2-0 record as well with wins over San Jose State and Stony Brook. Their game last week vs UConn was postponed due to Hurricane Irma. Their 31-17 win two weeks over Stony Brook wasn’t all roses as the Bulls actually trailed 10-7 before they got things under control in the 3rd quarter. Defensively they’ve held their first two opponents to an average of just 3.9 yards per play. The Bulls have 16 starters back from last year’s 11-2 team including QB Quintin Flowers who has already accounted for 535 total yards in the first two games. Former Texas head coach Charlie Strong is now the head coach for South Florida. We’ll keep an eye on how Hurricane Irma may affect this team’s preparation leading up to this game.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – USF has a 3-19 SU record their last 22 games vs Power 5 opponents. However all 3 of those wins have come in the last 2 seasons vs South Carolina and Syracuse (twice). The Bulls have been a favorite of -17 or more vs a Power 5 opponent just twice since 1980. Both games were vs Syracuse and USF won and covered both. Since 1990, the Illini have been a dog of 17 or more outside of conference play just twice (0-2 SU but 2-0 ATS).

Saturday Games

Air Force at Michigan (-25.5) – (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

After dominating Florida two weeks ago, the Wolverines had a bit of a letdown at home vs Cincinnati last week. The Bearcats won their season opener vs Austin Peay a week earlier but looked horrendous in the process with fewer first first downs, yardage, and time of possession. In this game Michigan led 17-14 with under 4:00 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter before they took over and pushed the margin to 36-14. The defense continued to shine allowing just 200 total yards on 70 Bearcat offensive snaps (2.85 yards per play). On the season, two games, the Wolverine defense has allowed just 392 total yards! QB Wilton Speight played was much better this week with 221 yards and 2 TD’s passing. That was after throwing two pick 6’s and completing only 44% of his passes against Florida.

Air Force had last weekend off after throttling VMI 62-0 in their opener on September 2nd. The Flyboys outgained VMI 647 to 95 in that win which included 457 yards on the ground. The Falcons were 10-3 and finished 3rd nationally in rushing last year at 317 YPG. However they bring back only 7 starters from that team that put up 10 wins a year ago. That includes only one regular returning on defense where they lost 12 of their top 13 tackler from a year ago. These two last met in 2012 when Air Force came to the Big House and nearly pulled the upset losing 31-25 as a 21.5 point underdog.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Since 1980 Air Force has been a 3 TD or more underdog just 12 times (9-3 ATS). Since 1996 the Falcons are a perfect 6-0 ATS in that role. Since 2011, Michigan is 18-10-1 ATS as a favorite off an ATS loss the previous game.

Northern Illinois at Nebraska (-14.5) - (FS1, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The Huskers are 1-1 on the season winning by a TD in week one at home vs Arkansas State and losing by a TD last week at Oregon. If you watched the game last week, you realize that Nebraska was fairly fortunate to lose by just 7 points in Eugene. The Ducks led 14-0 less than 4 minutes into the game and held a 42-14 edge at halftime! They had nearly 400 total yards at halftime vs the new defensive 3x4 scheme Nebraska has implemented this season. That’s a defense that has allowed a whopping 1,063 yards already this season in just two games. Nebraska did rally in the 2nd half after Oregon took their foot off the gas to make it respectable. For the game Oregon outgained the Huskers by more than 200 yards and more than 2.0 yards per play. One of Nebraska’s top offensive weapons, RB Tre Bryant (300 yards rushing this year), injured his knee and is questionable for this Saturday’s game.

NIU gave Boston College all they could handle in week one before falling 23-20. They bounced back last week with an easy 28 point win over Eastern Illinois. They outgained the Panthers in that game by more than 300 yards. It was a balanced attack with 269 yards passing and 230 on the ground. Starting QB Ryan Graham put up 190 yards passing and 99 on the ground vs BC but didn’t play last week due to an elbow injury. He’ll be out 2-4 weeks. His replacement, Daniel Santacaterina, played very well last week with 252 yards passing with 3 TD’s. “Santa” as his teammates call him, threw for 216 of his 252 in the first half. The Huskies, who dominated the MAC between 2010 – 2014, are coming off their first losing season (5-7 record) since 2008.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – The Huskies have covered 17 of the last 22 times they’ve been tabbed a road underdog. They are 22-9 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points since 1998. The Huskers are 22-12 ATS as a double digit favorite coming off an outright loss their previous game (since 1980).

Wisconsin (-17.5) at BYU - (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)

After destroying Utah State 59-10 to open the season, Wisconsin struggled a bit through last Saturday’s win over Florida Atlantic. The Badgers, a 34.5 point favorite, led 24-14 and limped to a 31-17 win. That was against an FAU team that lost 42-19 a week earlier to Navy AND were dealing with Hurricane distractions. Wisconsin did dominate the stats (+316 total yardage differential) but looked shaky at times offensively. They had 7 offensive drives of 5 plays or fewer that ended in a punt or a turnover. The offense put the defense in some bad spots as well as FAU’s two TD drives consisted of 5 plays & 2 plays. It looks like the Badgers have found another gem at the RB position as true freshman Jonathan Taylor, who has great size and speed, put up 223 yards on the ground in his first start. Taylor now has 310 yards rushing in two games and is average 8.9 YPC. UW was hit up front with a couple of injuries as both starting offensive guards, Beau Benzschawel and Jon Dietzen, are questionable with injuries.

BYU has already played three games on the season coming up short in two of those games. However their two losses were nothing to be ashamed of losing 27-0 at LSU and 19-13 vs Utah. Their lone win on the season was at home vs Portland State 20-6. As you can see by the scores, this is an offense that has really struggled. They have scored just 4 offensive TD’s in 3 games this season. The Cougs have a grand total of 58 yards rushing in their last two games combined. Granted, two of those games came against very good defense teams in LSU & Utah. That won’t change here as Wisconsin has allowed 12 PPG in two games this year after finishing 4th nationally in scoring defense last season. BYU will most likely take the field without starting QB Tanner Mangum who injured his ankle near the end of the game last week. If Mangum can’t go, sophomore Beau Hoge, who has appeared in 3 games in his career, will get the start.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – The line on this game before the season began was Wisconsin -10. Now just two weeks into the season we’re seeing the Badgers favored by as many as 18 as some spots. BYU’s QB injury situation has played into that. BYU is 22-10 ATS the last 32 times they’ve been an underdog (0-2 ATS this year included). The Cougars have been a home dog of more than 17 points only ONCE since 1980. That was in 2004 vs USC. Dating back to 1999, the Badgers are just 4-11 ATS the last 15 times they’ve been a road favorite of 2 TD’s or more.

North Texas at Iowa (-21) - (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)

The Hawkeyes won a thriller last week at Iowa State to retain possession of the CyHawk trophy for the 3rd straight season. The 47-44 overtime win was an evenly played game on the field and the stat sheet. Iowa jumped out to a 21-10 lead early in the 3rd quarter only to see ISU come back and score 21 straight points to take a 31-21 lead with under 7:00 remaining in the game. The Cyclones led 38-31 until Iowa scored the game tying TD with just over 1:00 left on the clock. The 3-point win in OT for Iowa was a push as far as the spread was concerned. After a shaky debut in their opener vs Wyoming, first year QB Nate Stanley was terrific completing 27 of 41 for 333 yards and 5 TD’s. Defensively, after holding Wyoming to just 3.3 yards per play in their first game the Hawks were torched for 467 yards last Saturday.

North Texas goes on the road for the second straight week after losing at SMU 54-32. UNT jumped out to a 10-0 lead in that game before SMU scored 38 straight points to take command. The Mean Green actually trailed 54-17 into the 4th quarter before scoring two meaningless TD’s to make the final margin 22 points. Surprisingly, the yardage was dead even in the game with each team rolling up 493 yards. However, nearly 200 of UNT’s yards came on their final three drives when the game was out of reach. These two met here in Iowa City just two years ago and UNT is hoping for a much better result. The Mean Green lost that game 62-16 as a 25 point favorite.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Since the start of the 2006 season, North Texas has played 16 Power 5 opponents losing 15 of those games. Their one win was at home vs Indiana 24-21. I their 15 Power 5 losses since 2006, 14 of those have come by at least 14 points and they have allowed at least 32 points in all 15 of those losses. Iowa has cashed in 65% of the time as a favorite of 21 or more dating all the way back to 1980 (33-18 ATS). However they are just 2-7 ATS in that role since 2009.

Middle Tennessee at Minnesota (-10.5) - (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Can the Gopher football team get some “revenge” for the Gopher basketball team in this one? The Minnesota hoops team took on MTSU in the opening round of last year’s NCAA tourney and came up short 81-72. The gridiron Gophs, after struggling a bit at home vs Buffalo in their opener, they went to Corvallis last Saturday a destroyed Oregon State 48-14. The Gophers scored 17 of their 48 points directly off Beaver turnovers. The game was tight at half with Minnesota leading 20-14. The defense played lights out in the 2nd half holding OSU scoreless on just 35 yards of offense. Offensively, Minny was so dominant running the ball (253 yards) they only attempted 8 passes the entire game. After splitting snaps with Demry Croft in the season opener, QB Conor Rhoda took most of the snaps vs the Beavs. He will take all of the snaps this weekend vs MTSU as Croft has been suspended by head coach PJ Fleck.

MTSU will take to the road for the second straight Saturday after pulling the upset at Syracuse last week. The Blue Raiders came into last week’s game as a 7.5 point underdog and beat the Orange in the dome 30-23. They are now 1-1 on the season after losing at home to Vandy in the opener. The Raiders have proven they can get it done on the road as they have now won 8 of their last 10 road games. They have one of the most potent QB/WR combos in the country. QB Brent Stockstill returns after throwing for over 3,200 yards and 31 TD’s last year. His top target, WR Richie James, had 1,625 yards receiving last season. These two have faced off twice since 2010 with Minnesota winning at home in 2014 by a final score of 35-24. The Gophs also won at MTSU 24-17 in 2010.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Minnesota is just 5-13 ATS (27%) as a favorite of -10 or more since the start of the 2007 season. They are also only 2-9 ATS the last 11 times they’ve been a home favorite. Not many upsets - despite their recent road success, MTSU is just 4-19 SU the last 23 times they’ve been a road underdog.

Purdue at Missouri (-7) - (SEC, 4:00 p.m. ET)

The Boilers played much better than we expected last Friday Night. They were coming off a tight loss to Louisville (at Indianapolis) in their opener and came home to face Ohio. Despite the tight 7 point margin vs the Cards, Purdue was dominated in that game. We envisioned a letdown vs a solid Ohio team but they proved us wrong. The Boilermakers rolled to a 44-21 win over the Bobcats and outgained them by 150 yards in the process. Head coach Jeff Brohm continued with the QB rotations of Sindelar and Blough as he did in the first game. Blough, who was the starter last year, was the better of the two in this game completing all but two of his 13 attempts for 235 yards and 3 TD’s. We stated in last week’s Big Ten report that we felt Purdue would try and establish their running game vs Ohio after doing next to nothing on the ground vs Louisville (just 51 yards). They did just that with 44 rushing attempts for 263 yards. All of that with their leading RB Markell Jones on the shelf with an injury.

Missouri kicked off the week by firing defensive coordinator DeMontie Cross. The Tiger defense allowed 43 & 31 points in their first two games of the season vs Missouri State and South Carolina. The offense is definitely the strength of this team. The Tigers brought back 10 starters from an offense that averaged 31 PPG last season. That includes QB Drew Lock, their top 2 rushers, and top 4 receivers. In their opener vs Missouri State the offense was unstoppable putting up 72 points. Last week, not so much, with just 13 vs South Carolina. They did put up over 400 yards but didn’t help themselves with 3 turnovers and a missed FG. After two weeks, the Tigers are the fastest paced offense in the nation averaging a snap every 18 seconds.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Mizzou is an impressive 25-7-1 ATS as a home favorite coming off a loss their previous game. While Purdue is a money making 13-3 ATS their last 16 games away from home, they only have 8 outright wins in their last 48 games away from home.

Army at Ohio State (-30.5) – (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET)

How do the Buckeyes respond after getting dominated at home vs Oklahoma last Saturday night on prime time TV? That will go a long way in determining who covers this game. Let’s face it, after two weeks the Buckeyes don’t look like a top 5 type team. In their opener they struggled with Indiana and actually trailed the game late in the 3rd quarter before pulling away. Last week Oklahoma looked like the better team from the opening kick. The OSU offense, specifically the passing game, looked pedestrian. QB JT Barrett has not progressed under new offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson, which was part of the reason he was brought in. Slow starts on offense have been a problem as the Buckeyes have scored just 16 points in the first half this season. The defense was supposed to be one of Urban Meyer’s best but has allowed 52 points and over 900 total yards in two games. This one could have been worse. In their first four drives the Sooners were shut out on downs, had two turnovers, and missed a FG. After that OU scored points on 5 of their next 6 drives to put the game away.

Army could be a dangerous opponent in this one. Especially if the OSU players are sulking after last week’s loss. The Cadets run an offense that OSU rarely sees. With just a week to prepare and the potential distractions off a big loss Army could have some success. The Cadets are 2-0 with wins over Fordham and Buffalo and this team rarely throws the ball. In their opener they rushed for 517 yards and had just 2 pass attempts. Last week vs Buffalo they had 322 yards on the ground and threw the ball only 8 times. They were 8-5 a year ago, including a bowl win, and they return 16 starters. If they can have some success on the ground they will eat clock which may make it tough for OSU to cover this huge number. They have lost by 30 points or more just twice in their last 36 games.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Army is 6-2 ATS as a dog of 28 or more since the start of the 2000 season. They’ve been tabbed an underdog for 4 TD’s or more only 12 times in the last 28 seasons. The Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS the last 7 times they’ve been a double digit favorite and coming off an outright loss.

Bowling Green at Northwestern (-21.5) - (Big Ten, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Northwestern has been a disappointment in their first two games to say the least. They have failed to cover each of the first two games by a combined 39 points! Last Saturday they traveled to Duke as a 2 point favorite and were thoroughly embarrassed. The Cats lost 41-17 and were outgained by a ridiculous 347 yards on the process. The Devils completely controlled the game from the opening kick running an unheard of 104 offensive plays to just 54 for Northwestern. You read that correctly. Duke ran 50 more offensive plays in the game. The defense couldn’t slow down Duke QB Jones who had 413 total yards. The NW offense, which was supposed to be a strength this year under returning QB Clayton Thorson and top RB Justin Jackson, failed to gain more than 15 yards in 10 of their 13 offensive possessions.

Bowling Green might be the perfect medicine for a struggling Northwestern team. BG is 0-2 on the season with losses at Michigan State and at home vs South Dakota. They have been outgained by a combined 300 yards in their first two games. Their 35-10 road loss at MSU was to be expected however their home loss to an FCS team is obviously concerning. The Falcons never led last week vs South Dakota and trailed 35-19 late in the game before tacking on a TD to make the final 35-19. After two games Bowling Green has yet to hold a lead. They have scored just 3 offensive TD’s on the season. The Falcons have struggled to stop the run (430 yards allowed this season) and been outgained on the ground by 200 yards combined in their two games. Look for NW to pound the ball with Justin Jackson who has only 127 yards in two games.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – This is rarified air for Northwestern who has been a favorite of 21 or more only 9 times in the last 28 seasons. They are just 3-6 ATS in those games including a spread loss at home vs Nevada in the season opener as a 24 point chalk. The Cats are just 5-14 ATS as a home favorite coming off an outright loss. BG is 0-1 ATS on the road this season, however coming into the year they were 39-18-1 ATS their previous 58 games away from home.

Georgia State at Penn State (-38.5) - (Big Ten, 7:30 p.m. ET)

The Nittany Lions rolled over in-state rival Pitt by a final score of 33-14. Depending on your number it was a loss or a tie if you were on PSU. The line was -21 for much of the week before dropping to -19 closer to game time. While it looked like it on the scoreboard, we’d say it was far from a dominating win for the Nits. The Panthers were actually +10 in first downs, +30 in total yardage, and had a whopping 17:00 minute time of possession edge. How did PSU win by such a wide margin? Three Pittsburgh turnovers and a number of blown offensive opportunities by the Panthers made this score more lopsided than it should have been. This could set up as a dangerous type game for Penn State when it comes to the spread. They are off a huge revenge/rivalry game and have a big game at Iowa on deck. They can probably name the score but do they really need to win by 40+?

Georgia State was 3-9 last year and they are 0-1 this season. However, they were a team last season that rarely was blown out by huge margins. They took Wisconsin (-34.5) to the wire in Madison losing 23-17. Their only two complete duds a year ago were at Air Force (lost by 34) and at Wyoming (lost by 25). Other than that they were fairly competitive. They also have had two full weeks to get ready for this game and it’s a big one for them. On top of that, they had an embarrassing loss to open the season losing 17-10 to Tennessee State back on Sept 2nd. This team does return 15 starters including QB Connor Manning who threw for 2,700 yards and 16 TD’s last year. They are under the direction of a new head coach however as Shawn Elliott came over after one year as FAU’s offensive coordinator. He was at South Carolina as an assistant for the seven years prior to that.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – This is the highest a PSU team has been favored (vs an FBS team) since the 1998 season. Since 1980, the Nittany Lions have been favored by more than 35 points just 9 times (9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS). Georgia State has played 8 Power 5 teams in their schools history. They have lost all 8 of those games by an average margin of 34 points.

Odds Subject to Change

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Big 12 SPOTLIGHT: Results show what 3 new coaches inherited
September 14, 2017

The situations inherited by the Big 12's three new head coaches are reflected in the results.

Matt Rhule never expected his job at Baylor to be easy. It's not. Tom Herman took over a Texas program with plenty of ups and downs since winning the league's last national title 12 seasons ago. Young Lincoln Riley suddenly found himself leading 10-time Big 12 champion Oklahoma with a Heisman Trophy-caliber quarterback.

The Sooners (2-0) already have a signature victory and a No. 2 national ranking, the Longhorns (1-1) gave up 51 points in an opening loss before a shutout victory and the Bears (0-2) have lost twice to teams that never before had beaten a Power Five team.

''I didn't come here because I thought it was going to be a really easy job. I didn't come here saying to myself, `Boy, this will be fun. This will be easy,''' Rhule said. ''I came here saying, this is going to be epic. This is going to be awesome. This is going to be a process.''

Rhule, coming off consecutive 10-win seasons and an American Athletic Conference title at Temple, also had a job offer from another Power Five school (Oregon) when he instead chose to go to a Bears program dealing with the aftermath of a sexual assault scandal.

When he got to Waco last December, Baylor had only one committed recruit and had lost most of its previous signing class after coach Art Briles was fired in May 2016.

Still, not even Rhule really anticipated Baylor losing its first two games - 48-45 to a Liberty team just starting the transition from FCS to the upper-level FBS, and 17-10 to UTSA .

''I think they feel a lot of pressure to win,'' Rhule said. ''I think that's a mixture of not having won enough and then also some of the off-field things. I just think you see a group that's a little bit tight out there. So, we're trying to get them to, `Let it go, man, let it rip.'''

The Bears, whose only win in their last nine games came in the Cactus Bowl, play at Duke on Saturday. They then start Big 12 play at home against Oklahoma before going to No. 18 Kansas State and No. 9 Oklahoma State.

Baylor has already used an FBS-high 18 first-time starters, including five of the 15 true freshman who have played.

Oklahoma also had some new starters after its two top running backs and leading receiver went to the NFL. But the Sooners still have a championship tradition and quarterback Baker Mayfield, a top-four finisher in the Heisman voting each of the past two seasons.

''We felt confident about the group we took over,'' Riley said. ''The success that coach (Bob Stoops) had here over the last several years, really the success that's happened here for a long, long time. ... It's just a very, very stable place.''

The two-time defending Big 12 champions have a 12-game winning streak after their 33-16 victory at then-No. 2 Ohio State. That win, just days after Riley's 34th birthday, avenged a three-touchdown home loss to the Buckeyes last September.

Riley became a first-time head coach in June after Stoops unexpectedly resigned after 18 seasons with the Sooners that included the 2000 national championship and those 10 conference titles. Riley was his offensive coordinator the past two seasons. Stoops, an Ohio native, was at the Horseshoe on his 57th birthday to share in the Sooners' big victory with his successor.

''Very, very special,'' Riley said ''That will be part of it that I remember the most.''

The Longhorns were a preseason Top 25 team despite three consecutive losing seasons for the first time since the 1930s. They then lost 51-41 to Maryland in their opener at home.

But with a freshman quarterback making his first college start because of Shane Buechele's banged-up shoulder, Texas beat San Jose State 56-0 in Week 2.

''They could have been very distracted by all of the noise following that performance in game one, and rather than wallow in self-pity or listen to all the naysayers, we kind of took a bunker mentality,'' Herman said.

Texas now goes to fourth-ranked Southern California for the first matchup of those teams since their classic Rose Bowl at the end of the 2005 season. The Vince Young-led Longhorns pulled off a 41-38 upset victory for the national title.

''We are nowhere near a finished product,'' Herman said. ''We won that (San Jose State) game because we played so hard and we've got really good players. So I think that's a start. When you have got good players that play hard, you've got a chance.''

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet
September 14, 2017

**Illinois at South Florida**

-- The Week 3 version of “Friday Night Lights” takes us to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, where South Florida from out of the AAC will take on Big Ten representative Illinois. Both teams are undefeated to date, but it’s Lovie Smith’s squad that’s been more pleased with its play here early on. As of Thursday night, most betting shops had South Florida (2-0 straight, 0-2 against the spread) installed as a 17.5-point favorite with a total of 55.5. The Illini were listed at +600 to win outright (risk $100 to win $600).

-- USF finished 2016 with an 11-2 record and returned seven starters on offense and nine on defense. The Bulls lost head coach Willie Taggart when he took the Oregon job, however, replacing him with former Texas and Louisville head coach Charlie Strong. Although USF remains undefeated, it hasn’t been impressive on Strong’s watch so far. The Bulls fell behind 16-0 at San Jose State in the first quarter of their opener, but they responded to capture a 42-22 win. Nevertheless, they failed to cover the number as 21-point road ‘chalk.’ The 64 combined points fell ‘under’ the 69-point total.

-- In the win over the Spartans, USF went on a 28-0 run to go into halftime with a 28-16 advantage. The Bulls actually moved ahead of the number on Quinton Flowers’ one-yard TD run with 9:57 remaining. However, San Jose State’s Montel Aaron found Justin Holmes for a 22-yard TD pass with 8:25 left, and that score would hold to give the Spartans the spread cover. USF got a scoop-and-score TD from its defense, only to see it get called back and prevent the Bulls from taking the money. Flowers completed 11-of-22 passes for 212 yards and two TDs without an interception. He rushed for 70 yards and one TD on 18 carries. D’Ernest Johnson rushed for a team-best 99 yards and two TDs on 22 attempts, while Darius Tice ran for 94 yards and one TD on 20 totes. Marquez Valdes-Scantling hauled in six receptions for 91 yards, while Temi Alaka caught a 49-yard TD pass from Flowers.

-- In Week 2, USF went to intermission trailing Stony Brook 10-7 in its home opener. The Bulls didn’t take their first lead against the FCS foe until Flowers found Valdes-Scantling on a six-yard scoring strike with 2:43 remaining in the third quarter. After extending the lead to 17-10 with a short field goal, the Seawolves pulled even early in the final stanza on a Stacy Bedell 54-yard TD run. USF answered on its ensuing drive when Flowers connected with Tyre McCants for a 65-yard TD pass. Tice’s 14-yard TD run with 1:40 remaining put the game on ice, but Stony Brook easily covered the spread as a 35-point underdog. Flowers completed 19-of-32 throws for 186 yards and two TDs with one interception. He also rushed for 67 yards on 18 carries, while Tice ran for 57 yards and two scores on 16 attempts. McCants had a pair of catches for 74 yards and one TD.

-- USF saw its Week 3 game at UConn postponed due to Hurricane Irma.

-- Illinois (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) opened the season by slipping past Ball State, 24-21 as a five-point home ‘chalk.’ The Illini led 16-7 at halftime, but the Cardinals took a 21-16 lead with a pair of third-quarter TD runs. Smith’s squad got a one-yard TD run from Mike Epstein with 2:06 remaining, and a Chayce Crouch three-yard run on the two-point conversion gave Illinois a 24-21 advantage. The defense held off Ball State to preserve the victory.

-- Illinois could muster just 216 yards of total offense compared to 375 for Ball State. The home team’s defense forced two turnovers, however, and made a key fourth-down stop. Epstein finished with 54 rushing yards and two TDs on 11 carries. Crouch completed 10-of-19 passes for only 145 yards with one TD and one interception. Epstein had two catches for 32 yards as well.

-- Illinois improved to 2-0 with last week’s 20-7 home win over Western Ky. as a 6.5-point home underdog. The 27 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 51-point tally. The defense was the story for Smith’s troops again, forcing two turnovers including a 10-yard pick-six by Julian Jones to give Illinois a 13-0 lead at halftime. This unit held the Hilltoppers to 244 yards of total offense and jus six rushing yards on 16 attempts. Crouch’s nine-yard TD run midway through the third quarter gave the Illini a 20-0 lead. Western Ky. didn’t get on the board until QB Mike White’s two-yard TD run with 11:38 remaining. Epstein rushed 21 times for 111 yards, while Crouch ran for 44 yards and one TD on 12 carries. Crouch struggled throwing the ball, though, connecting on just 14-of-25 passes for 107 yards with one interception.

-- The Illinois defense has been led by Del’Shawn Phillips, a juco transfer who was Smith’s prize recruit who arrived in Champaign-Urbana in time for spring practice. Phillips has recorded a team-high 22 tackles, one TFL, 0.5 sacks and one QB hurry. Meanwhile, junior LB Tre Watson has produced 16 tackles, one interception for a 21-yard return, one fumble recovery with a 34 yards return, 0.5 TFL’s and one QB hurry.

-- Illinois DE James Crawford is suspended indefinitely for unknown reasons. Crawford had 18 tackles and one tackle for a loss last season. Also, sophomore LB Jake Hansen, who was penciled in as a starter coming out of spring practice, is done for the season due to a knee injury. Sophomore RB Reggie Corbin hasn’t made his season debut yet due to undisclosed reasons. Corbin, who is listed as ‘questionable’ at USF, rushed for 523 yards and two TDs while averaging 6.1 YPC last year.

-- USF staring senior WR Ryeshene Bronson, who had 21 career starts, was lost to a season-ending shoulder injury.

-- Kickoff is slated for Friday night at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Arizona at UTEP**

-- As of Thursday night, most spots had Arizona (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) listed as a 23-point favorite with a total of 58.5. The Miners were +1250 on the money line (risk $100 to win $1,250).

-- Arizona started the season with a 62-24 win over Northern Arizona as a 26-point home favorite. The 86 combined points soared ‘over’ the 68.5-point number. Junior QB Brandon Dawkins was the catalyst for the offense, rushing for 92 yards and two TDs on seven carries. He also completed 7-of-13 passes for 89 yards and one TD without an interception. Nick Wilson added 87 rushing yards and one TD on eight attempts. Junior Tony Ellison had five receptions for 79 yards.

-- Rich Rodriguez’s team lost a 19-16 decision as a one-point underdog in Week 2. The 37 combined points went ‘under’ the 64.5-point total. The Cougars never trailed, but there were a pair of ties (3-3 & 10-10) until Dillon Birden’s three-yard TD run with 45 seconds left in the second quarter gave UH the lead for good. Major Applewhite’s club added a safety in the second half and limited UA to a pair of field goals to garner the victory in its season opener (after its Week 1 game was postponed due to Hurricane Harvey). Dawkins completed 17-of-29 passes for 178 yards without a TD or an INT, and he was held to 26 rushing yards on 13 attempts. UA’s J.J. Taylor rushed for a team-best 87 yards on 17 carries, while junior WR Shun Brown had four catches for 79 yards.

-- Arizona has posted a 4-4 spread record in eight games as a road favorite since Rodriguez took over in 2012.

-- UTEP (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) has been clobbered twice to date, losing 56-7 at Oklahoma and 31-14 at home vs. Rice. Remember, the Owls lost 62-7 to Stanford in their opener in Sydney, Australia, two weeks before coming to El Paso and winning handily as 1.5-point road underdogs. The 45 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 55-point total. In the loss to the Sooners, the 63 combined points slithered ‘over’ the 62.5-point tally thanks to a one-yard TD run from OU’s Marcelias Sutton with 10:20 left in the fourth quarter.

-- Oklahoma dominated UTEP with a 676-167 advantage in total offense. The only highlight for the Miners was Walter Dawn’s 17-yard TD run to knot the score at 7-7 midway through the opening quarter. Junior QB Ryan Metz completed only 10-of-18 passes for 56 yards, while Dawn finished with 56 rushing yards and one TD on just seven carries.

-- Rice scored the first 17 points at the Sun Bowl last week, keeping UTEP out of the end zone until Warren Redix’s 44-yard TD catch from Metz trimmed the deficit to 17-7 late in the third quarter. After the Owls extended their lead to 24-7, Metz’s one-yard TD plunge made it 24-14 with 4:56 left. Rice added another TD on a short run to the put the game on ice. Metz threw for 203 yards and one TD without an interception. However, he injured his shoulder late in the game and is now considered out indefinitely.

-- With Metz, who had a 14/4 TD-INT ratio in seven starts in ’16, sidelined vs. Arizona, senior Zack Greenlee will get the starting nod. Greenlee is in his second season with UTEP after starting six games at Fresno St. as a freshman and sophomore. He had a 14/6 TD-INT ratio while playing for the Bulldogs. In ’16 for UTEP, Greenlee started four games and threw for 695 yards with a 5/3 TD-INT ratio.

-- UTEP owns a 5-7 spread record in 12 games as a home underdog during Sean Kugler’s five-year tenure.

-- Both teams are dealing with a slew of injuries. In addition to Metz, sophomore tackle Greg Long is out for the season with a leg injury. Long started four games in ’16 as a redshirt freshman and earned All C-USA Freshman honors. Also, starting junior center Derron Gatewood is ‘doubtful’ for undisclosed reasons, and starting sophomore LB Jayson VanHook is ‘out’ for the season with a shoulder injury. VanHook had 36 tackles, one sack and 4.5 TFL’s in ’16.

-- Arizona’s Wilson, the senior RB, is ‘questionable’ with an ankle injury along with starting senior nose guard Parker Zellers. Three UA starters are ‘out,’ including sophomore safety Isaiah Hayes, senior LB DeAndre’ Miller and junior TE Trevor Wood. Miller had 18 tackles, three sacks, and two TFL’s last year, while Wood caught seven balls for 49 yards. As a true freshman in ’16, Hayes recorded 38 tackles, one sack and 1.5 TFL’s.

-- Arizona has owned this head-to-head series by winning 22 of 23 games dating back to 1958. UTEP’s lone victory over the Wildcats came in 1970.

-- ESPN will provide the telecast at 10:15 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- There’s a third televised game Friday night. That side and total available for bettors involves Temple playing host to UMass. As of Thursday night, most spots had the Owls listed as 14.5-point favorites with a total of 52. The Minutemen were at +450 on the money line (risk $100 to win $450). Mark Whipple’s team is 0-3 both SU and ATS after losing vs. Hawaii (38-35), at Coastal Carolina (38-28) and vs. Old Dominion (17-7). As for Geoff Collins’s first squad at Temple since taking over for Matt Rhule, it is out to a 1-1 SU start but has yet to cover the number. The Owls lost 49-16 at Notre Dame before holding off Villanova 16-13 at home in Week 2. Temple is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite, while UMass is 8-8 ATS as a road ‘dog during Whipple’s tenure. The Minutemen are 5-2 ATS in their last seven such spots. This game will kick in Philadelphia at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.

-- Nebraska RB Tre Bryant has been ruled ‘out’ of Saturday’s home game vs. Northern Illinois due to a knee injury. Bryant has rushed for 299 yards and two TDs on 51 attempts through two games.

-- During David Cutcliffe’s 10-year tenure at Duke, his teams have compiled an incredible 12-2 spread record in 14 games as a double-digit home favorite. The Blue Devils are 14-point home ‘chalk’ Saturday vs. Baylor.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Friday, September 15

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MASSACHUSETTS (0 - 3) at TEMPLE (1 - 1) - 9/15/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MASSACHUSETTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
TEMPLE is 1-0 straight up against MASSACHUSETTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ILLINOIS (2 - 0) at S FLORIDA (2 - 0) - 9/15/2017, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ILLINOIS is 123-160 ATS (-53.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
ILLINOIS is 123-160 ATS (-53.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
S FLORIDA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (1 - 1) at UTEP (0 - 2) - 9/15/2017, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 54-87 ATS (-41.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
ARIZONA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
UTEP is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NCAAF

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Friday, September 15

7:00 PM
ILLINOIS vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
Illinois is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Illinois is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road
South Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
South Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
MASSACHUSETTS vs. TEMPLE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Massachusetts's last 6 games
Massachusetts is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Temple is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Temple is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

10:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. TEXAS EL PASO
Arizona is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
Texas El Paso is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Texas El Paso is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

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Friday’s games

Temple was outgunned 402-353 in narrow 16-13 win on I-AA Villanova last week, after they lost 49-16 at Notre Dame the week before. Owls had only 79 rushing yards LW; they’re 7-2 as home favorites the last two years, but this team has far less experience than in recent years. UMass is 0-3 already, losing 38-28 at I-A newcomer Coastal Carolina in their only road game. Minutemen are 8-8 as road underdogs under Whipple. Temple (-13) edged UMass 25-23 at home in last meeting, two years ago.

Former Bucs’ assistant Lovie Smith returns to Tampa with his Illinois team that is 2-0 with home wins over Ball State/Western Kentucky. Since 2012, Illini is 6-15 as a road underdog; they were 2-2 LY, in Smith’s first year as coach. South Florida’s routines have obviously been disrupted by Hurricane Irma; Bulls are 2-0, with a 42-22 road win at San Jose State after they fell behind 16-0 early. USF has 16 returning starters, a senior QB (28 starts). Bulls are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games as a home favorite.

Arizona lost at home to Houston LW, their first I-A game. Wildcats are 4-4 as road favorites under RichRod. Arizona’s OL has 89 returning starts, which makes last week’s loss more disappointing. UTEP gave up 306 rushing yards in a 31-14 home loss to Rice LW, after they got crushed by Oklahoma before that. Miners are 12-11-1 vs spread at home under Kugler. UTEP’s qb Metz has 14 career starts. Wildcats have 7 starters back on both sides of the ball; their junior QB has 11 starts.

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 3

Friday, September 15

Massachusetts @ Temple

Game 105-106
September 15, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Massachusetts
70.750
Temple
82.828
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Temple
by 12
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Temple
by 15
52
Dunkel Pick:
Massachusetts
(+15); Under

Illinois @ South Florida

Game 107-108
September 15, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Illinois
82.559
South Florida
90.990
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Florida
by 8 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Florida
by 18
56
Dunkel Pick:
Illinois
(+18); Over

Arizona @ UTEP

Game 109-110
September 15, 2017 @ 10:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
82.518
UTEP
62.297
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 20
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 23
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UTEP
(+23); Over

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[StarDust Bum]

CFB Aug/Sept Best Bets: ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

09/14/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

09/09/2017 19-21-3 47.50% -20.50

09/08/2017 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00

09/07/2017 0-1-0 0.00% -5.50

09/04/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

09/03/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50

09/02/2017 11-21-0 34.38% -60.50

09/01/2017 6-3-0 66.67% +13.50

08/31/2017 9-4-0 69.23% +23.00

08/26/2017 5-5-0 50.00% -2.50

Totals:..........59 - 58 - 3........50.42%....-24.00

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, September 15

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Friday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Illinois at South Florida
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Illinois Fighting Illini at South Florida Bulls (-17, 55.5)

Illinois goes after its third straight victory to open the season and will face its most difficult challenge yet when coach Lovie Smith’s team visits a familiar place to take on well-rested No. 21 South Florida on Friday night. Smith returns to the site of his last job with NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers after the Bulls had last week’s game at Connecticut cancelled due to complications with Hurricane Irma.

The Fighting Illini knocked off Ball State and Western Kentucky while giving up a total of 28 points in their first two contests with a young defense that will be tested against an experienced team that has scored at least 30 points in 19 straight games. “They’re being put in situations that are new to them each week,” Smith told reporters of his defense after a 20-7 victory over Western Kentucky last week. “But, again, they’ve stepped up to the plate, and they’re taking advantage of it.” USF was not really sharp in its first two games, despite putting up 73 points combined and winning by an average of 17, but senior quarterback Quinton Flowers leads the way for a talented offense that can beat foes with the run and the pass. The Bulls did not practice over the weekend after the UConn game was canceled and will have to brush off some rust as they prepare for their second-to-last non-conference matchup of the season.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: South Florida opened as 14-point home favorites and that number has jumped to -17. The total hit the betting boards at 51 and jumped all of the way up to 55.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Illinois - DB J. Dunlap (Questionable, Leg), RB R. Corbin (Questionable, Undisclosed), OL D. Kramer (Questionable, Leg), OL J. Fagan (Questionable, Undisclosed), RB D. Brown (Questionable, Undisclosed), TE N. Echard (Doubful, Knee), DL J. Crawford (Out, Suspension), LB J. Hansen (Out For Season, Knee).

South Florida - OL G. Bethel (Questionable, Leg), WR R. Bronson (Out For Season, Shoulder).

ILLINOIS (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U): Three freshmen have started on defense for Smith’s squad, including linemen Bobby Roundtree (three sacks) and Isaiah Gay (one sack), while junior linebacker Del’Shawn Phillips leads the way with 22 tackles and a half-sack. Junior wide receiver Mike Dudek, who has missed the last two seasons after suffering two torn ACLs in his left knee, is off to a strong start with eight catches for 93 yards and a score to lead the receiving corps. Junior quarterback Chayce Crouch has thrown for 252 yards with one touchdown strike and two interceptions in the first two games while freshman running back Mike Epstein has rushed for 165 yards and two TDs.

SOUTH FLORIDA (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U): Flowers threw for 398 yards and four touchdowns with just one interception in the first two games, but his accuracy has not been as sharp (55.6 completion percentage) as in the past. The Bulls would like to get their rushing attack going again after managing just 153 yards in the close win against FCS member Stony Brook last time out, and will look for senior D’Ernest Johnson to return to his opening game form (99 yards on the ground) after gaining 15 on Sept. 2. USF’s defense will still have to get better but linebackers Nico Sawtelle and Auggie Sanchez lead the way for the Bulls, who have picked off five passes in two games.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
* Under is 7-1 in Fighting Illini last 8 non-conference games.
* Over is 9-2 in Bulls last 11 home games.

CONSENSUS: The underdog Illini are getting 66 percent of the action from users and the Over is picking up 56 percent of the totals wagers.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet
September 14, 2017

**Illinois at South Florida**

-- The Week 3 version of “Friday Night Lights” takes us to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, where South Florida from out of the AAC will take on Big Ten representative Illinois. Both teams are undefeated to date, but it’s Lovie Smith’s squad that’s been more pleased with its play here early on. As of Thursday night, most betting shops had South Florida (2-0 straight, 0-2 against the spread) installed as a 17.5-point favorite with a total of 55.5. The Illini were listed at +600 to win outright (risk $100 to win $600).

-- USF finished 2016 with an 11-2 record and returned seven starters on offense and nine on defense. The Bulls lost head coach Willie Taggart when he took the Oregon job, however, replacing him with former Texas and Louisville head coach Charlie Strong. Although USF remains undefeated, it hasn’t been impressive on Strong’s watch so far. The Bulls fell behind 16-0 at San Jose State in the first quarter of their opener, but they responded to capture a 42-22 win. Nevertheless, they failed to cover the number as 21-point road ‘chalk.’ The 64 combined points fell ‘under’ the 69-point total.

-- In the win over the Spartans, USF went on a 28-0 run to go into halftime with a 28-16 advantage. The Bulls actually moved ahead of the number on Quinton Flowers’ one-yard TD run with 9:57 remaining. However, San Jose State’s Montel Aaron found Justin Holmes for a 22-yard TD pass with 8:25 left, and that score would hold to give the Spartans the spread cover. USF got a scoop-and-score TD from its defense, only to see it get called back and prevent the Bulls from taking the money. Flowers completed 11-of-22 passes for 212 yards and two TDs without an interception. He rushed for 70 yards and one TD on 18 carries. D’Ernest Johnson rushed for a team-best 99 yards and two TDs on 22 attempts, while Darius Tice ran for 94 yards and one TD on 20 totes. Marquez Valdes-Scantling hauled in six receptions for 91 yards, while Temi Alaka caught a 49-yard TD pass from Flowers.

-- In Week 2, USF went to intermission trailing Stony Brook 10-7 in its home opener. The Bulls didn’t take their first lead against the FCS foe until Flowers found Valdes-Scantling on a six-yard scoring strike with 2:43 remaining in the third quarter. After extending the lead to 17-10 with a short field goal, the Seawolves pulled even early in the final stanza on a Stacy Bedell 54-yard TD run. USF answered on its ensuing drive when Flowers connected with Tyre McCants for a 65-yard TD pass. Tice’s 14-yard TD run with 1:40 remaining put the game on ice, but Stony Brook easily covered the spread as a 35-point underdog. Flowers completed 19-of-32 throws for 186 yards and two TDs with one interception. He also rushed for 67 yards on 18 carries, while Tice ran for 57 yards and two scores on 16 attempts. McCants had a pair of catches for 74 yards and one TD.

-- USF saw its Week 3 game at UConn postponed due to Hurricane Irma.

-- Illinois (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) opened the season by slipping past Ball State, 24-21 as a five-point home ‘chalk.’ The Illini led 16-7 at halftime, but the Cardinals took a 21-16 lead with a pair of third-quarter TD runs. Smith’s squad got a one-yard TD run from Mike Epstein with 2:06 remaining, and a Chayce Crouch three-yard run on the two-point conversion gave Illinois a 24-21 advantage. The defense held off Ball State to preserve the victory.

-- Illinois could muster just 216 yards of total offense compared to 375 for Ball State. The home team’s defense forced two turnovers, however, and made a key fourth-down stop. Epstein finished with 54 rushing yards and two TDs on 11 carries. Crouch completed 10-of-19 passes for only 145 yards with one TD and one interception. Epstein had two catches for 32 yards as well.

-- Illinois improved to 2-0 with last week’s 20-7 home win over Western Ky. as a 6.5-point home underdog. The 27 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 51-point tally. The defense was the story for Smith’s troops again, forcing two turnovers including a 10-yard pick-six by Julian Jones to give Illinois a 13-0 lead at halftime. This unit held the Hilltoppers to 244 yards of total offense and jus six rushing yards on 16 attempts. Crouch’s nine-yard TD run midway through the third quarter gave the Illini a 20-0 lead. Western Ky. didn’t get on the board until QB Mike White’s two-yard TD run with 11:38 remaining. Epstein rushed 21 times for 111 yards, while Crouch ran for 44 yards and one TD on 12 carries. Crouch struggled throwing the ball, though, connecting on just 14-of-25 passes for 107 yards with one interception.

-- The Illinois defense has been led by Del’Shawn Phillips, a juco transfer who was Smith’s prize recruit who arrived in Champaign-Urbana in time for spring practice. Phillips has recorded a team-high 22 tackles, one TFL, 0.5 sacks and one QB hurry. Meanwhile, junior LB Tre Watson has produced 16 tackles, one interception for a 21-yard return, one fumble recovery with a 34 yards return, 0.5 TFL’s and one QB hurry.

-- Illinois DE James Crawford is suspended indefinitely for unknown reasons. Crawford had 18 tackles and one tackle for a loss last season. Also, sophomore LB Jake Hansen, who was penciled in as a starter coming out of spring practice, is done for the season due to a knee injury. Sophomore RB Reggie Corbin hasn’t made his season debut yet due to undisclosed reasons. Corbin, who is listed as ‘questionable’ at USF, rushed for 523 yards and two TDs while averaging 6.1 YPC last year.

-- USF staring senior WR Ryeshene Bronson, who had 21 career starts, was lost to a season-ending shoulder injury.

-- Kickoff is slated for Friday night at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Arizona at UTEP**

-- As of Thursday night, most spots had Arizona (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) listed as a 23-point favorite with a total of 58.5. The Miners were +1250 on the money line (risk $100 to win $1,250).

-- Arizona started the season with a 62-24 win over Northern Arizona as a 26-point home favorite. The 86 combined points soared ‘over’ the 68.5-point number. Junior QB Brandon Dawkins was the catalyst for the offense, rushing for 92 yards and two TDs on seven carries. He also completed 7-of-13 passes for 89 yards and one TD without an interception. Nick Wilson added 87 rushing yards and one TD on eight attempts. Junior Tony Ellison had five receptions for 79 yards.

-- Rich Rodriguez’s team lost a 19-16 decision as a one-point underdog in Week 2. The 37 combined points went ‘under’ the 64.5-point total. The Cougars never trailed, but there were a pair of ties (3-3 & 10-10) until Dillon Birden’s three-yard TD run with 45 seconds left in the second quarter gave UH the lead for good. Major Applewhite’s club added a safety in the second half and limited UA to a pair of field goals to garner the victory in its season opener (after its Week 1 game was postponed due to Hurricane Harvey). Dawkins completed 17-of-29 passes for 178 yards without a TD or an INT, and he was held to 26 rushing yards on 13 attempts. UA’s J.J. Taylor rushed for a team-best 87 yards on 17 carries, while junior WR Shun Brown had four catches for 79 yards.

-- Arizona has posted a 4-4 spread record in eight games as a road favorite since Rodriguez took over in 2012.

-- UTEP (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) has been clobbered twice to date, losing 56-7 at Oklahoma and 31-14 at home vs. Rice. Remember, the Owls lost 62-7 to Stanford in their opener in Sydney, Australia, two weeks before coming to El Paso and winning handily as 1.5-point road underdogs. The 45 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 55-point total. In the loss to the Sooners, the 63 combined points slithered ‘over’ the 62.5-point tally thanks to a one-yard TD run from OU’s Marcelias Sutton with 10:20 left in the fourth quarter.

-- Oklahoma dominated UTEP with a 676-167 advantage in total offense. The only highlight for the Miners was Walter Dawn’s 17-yard TD run to knot the score at 7-7 midway through the opening quarter. Junior QB Ryan Metz completed only 10-of-18 passes for 56 yards, while Dawn finished with 56 rushing yards and one TD on just seven carries.

-- Rice scored the first 17 points at the Sun Bowl last week, keeping UTEP out of the end zone until Warren Redix’s 44-yard TD catch from Metz trimmed the deficit to 17-7 late in the third quarter. After the Owls extended their lead to 24-7, Metz’s one-yard TD plunge made it 24-14 with 4:56 left. Rice added another TD on a short run to the put the game on ice. Metz threw for 203 yards and one TD without an interception. However, he injured his shoulder late in the game and is now considered out indefinitely.

-- With Metz, who had a 14/4 TD-INT ratio in seven starts in ’16, sidelined vs. Arizona, senior Zack Greenlee will get the starting nod. Greenlee is in his second season with UTEP after starting six games at Fresno St. as a freshman and sophomore. He had a 14/6 TD-INT ratio while playing for the Bulldogs. In ’16 for UTEP, Greenlee started four games and threw for 695 yards with a 5/3 TD-INT ratio.

-- UTEP owns a 5-7 spread record in 12 games as a home underdog during Sean Kugler’s five-year tenure.

-- Both teams are dealing with a slew of injuries. In addition to Metz, sophomore tackle Greg Long is out for the season with a leg injury. Long started four games in ’16 as a redshirt freshman and earned All C-USA Freshman honors. Also, starting junior center Derron Gatewood is ‘doubtful’ for undisclosed reasons, and starting sophomore LB Jayson VanHook is ‘out’ for the season with a shoulder injury. VanHook had 36 tackles, one sack and 4.5 TFL’s in ’16.

-- Arizona’s Wilson, the senior RB, is ‘questionable’ with an ankle injury along with starting senior nose guard Parker Zellers. Three UA starters are ‘out,’ including sophomore safety Isaiah Hayes, senior LB DeAndre’ Miller and junior TE Trevor Wood. Miller had 18 tackles, three sacks, and two TFL’s last year, while Wood caught seven balls for 49 yards. As a true freshman in ’16, Hayes recorded 38 tackles, one sack and 1.5 TFL’s.

-- Arizona has owned this head-to-head series by winning 22 of 23 games dating back to 1958. UTEP’s lone victory over the Wildcats came in 1970.

-- ESPN will provide the telecast at 10:15 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- There’s a third televised game Friday night. That side and total available for bettors involves Temple playing host to UMass. As of Thursday night, most spots had the Owls listed as 14.5-point favorites with a total of 52. The Minutemen were at +450 on the money line (risk $100 to win $450). Mark Whipple’s team is 0-3 both SU and ATS after losing vs. Hawaii (38-35), at Coastal Carolina (38-28) and vs. Old Dominion (17-7). As for Geoff Collins’s first squad at Temple since taking over for Matt Rhule, it is out to a 1-1 SU start but has yet to cover the number. The Owls lost 49-16 at Notre Dame before holding off Villanova 16-13 at home in Week 2. Temple is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite, while UMass is 8-8 ATS as a road ‘dog during Whipple’s tenure. The Minutemen are 5-2 ATS in their last seven such spots. This game will kick in Philadelphia at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.

-- Nebraska RB Tre Bryant has been ruled ‘out’ of Saturday’s home game vs. Northern Illinois due to a knee injury. Bryant has rushed for 299 yards and two TDs on 51 attempts through two games.

-- During David Cutcliffe’s 10-year tenure at Duke, his teams have compiled an incredible 12-2 spread record in 14 games as a double-digit home favorite. The Blue Devils are 14-point home ‘chalk’ Saturday vs. Baylor.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 15

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ILL at USF 07:00 PM

USF -17.0

U 55.5 *****

MASS at TEM 07:00 PM

MASS +14.5****

O 51.5 *****

ARIZ at UTEP 10:15 PM

UTEP +23.5

O 58.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Wright, Temple eek out win, UMass covers
September 15, 2017

PHILADELPHIA (AP) Isaiah Wright made a one-handed, 13-yard touchdown catch with 3:48 remaining and Temple held on to beat winless Massachusetts 29-21 on Friday night.

Logan Marchi's lofted pass to Wright in the corner of the end zone capped a 10-play, 72-yard drive for a 29-14 lead. UMass responded with a quick-scoring drive, punctuated by Andrew Ford's 3-yard sneak with 1:41 left.

The Minutemen kicked it deep and forced Temple into a three-and-out. But with three seconds left, UMass' trick play with backup quarterback Ross Comis was stopped near midfield.

Marchi threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns for Temple (2-1). Kicker Austin Jones moved into sixth on the Owls' scoring list and Quincy Roche had three sacks in the first half for his first career multi-sack game.

Ford finished with a career-high 377 yards passing and two touchdowns for UMass (0-4). The Minutemen were hurt by three missed field goals - of 23, 32 and 39 yards.

Temple's long-range kicker Aaron Boumerhi made it 19-7 early in the third quarter with a career-long 52-yarder. Last week, he kicked a 49-yarder with a minute left to give Temple a 16-13 lead over Villanova.

UMass freshman Jessie Britt scored his first touchdown of the season to pull the Minutemen to 19-14 with 5:56 left in the third. But Temple answered with its fourth straight scoring drive for an eight-point lead.

**********************

USF starts slow, then rolls Illinois 47-23
September 15, 2017

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) A big night passing for Quinton Flowers, three 100-yard rushers and another lopsided victory for No. 22 South Florida.

There was plenty for Charlie Strong to like Friday night in a 47-23 rout of Illinois, but nothing resonated more than the way Flowers led the Bulls back from a Hurricane Irma-layoff.

The dual threat quarterback threw for 280 yards and four touchdowns, moving ahead of Matt Grothe and B.J. Daniels into second place on USF's career touchdown pass list with 53.

The 2016 American Athletic Conference offensive player of the year also scored his 32nd rushing touchdown, tying Marlon Mack's school record.

''We can still improve,'' Strong said, ''but offensively it was a major step for us. Offensively we hadn't produced like that,'' in the first two games.

The Bulls (3-0) beat a Big Ten opponent for the first time on a night USF honored first responders who worked the past week to help victims of the massive storm that impacted the entire state of Florida.

''We felt like we had a chance to give back ... provide some relief for our communities, if only for a few hours,'' coach Charlie Strong said.

''I was really proud of how our team responded,'' to a short practice week that followed the postponement of last week's game at Connecticut, Strong said, adding that senior leadership provided by Flowers was one of the keys to the dominating performance.

''He goes about his work,'' the coach said, ''and guys follow.''

Illinois (2-1) stumbled in what also was a homecoming of sorts for coach Lovie Smith, who returned to the stadium where he led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for two seasons before being fired and accepting the challenge of rebuilding the Illini.

Illini freshman Mike Epstein scored on a 46-yard run and a 21-yard pass from Jeff George Jr., who replaced starter Chayce Crouch in the second half.

''A total breakdown, but, of course, it counts one game,'' Smith said. ''The good part about it is we're going to leave our nonconference schedule and get to Big Ten play.''

Flowers completed 15 of 25 passes, including TD throws of 39 yards to Deangelo Antoine, 17 yards to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, 17 yards to D'Ernest Johnson and 13 yards to Tyre McCants. Flowers also scored on a 6-yard run on the last play of the first half and finished with a team-best 106 of USF's 376 yards rushing.

Johnson and Darius Tice joined Flowers in topping 100 yards rushing, with USF amassing 680 yards total offense to Illinois' 354.

THE TAKEAWAY

Illinois: Played like a young team that will struggle against strong competition. The Illini committed 12 penalties for 110 yards in the first half alone - embarrassing, unless you consider USF was even worse up to that point with 14 penalties for 115 yards. Epstein continues to be a reason to feel good about the program's future, finishing with 56 yards rushing, 27 receiving and two TDs.

South Florida: Despite being 3-0, the Bulls have yet to play a complete game. They've hurt themselves with penalties and breakdowns on special teams in every game, and once again the offense had difficulty finishing drives early. With Flowers accounting for 81 yards, the Bulls outgained the Illini 184-21 in the opening quarter, yet USF only led 9-2. Illinois kept it close by blocking a field goal, turning another block into a defensive extra point and intercepting Flowers in the end zone.

THANK YOU

USF provided first responders who attended the game up to four free tickets apiece. Coach Charlie Strong also offered every high school team in the state free admission to the nationally televised game, which began 37 minutes late because of a lightning delay.

The school said more than 80 prep teams, many of them idle because their games were canceled because of Hurricane Irma, accepted the invitation.

Attendance was announced as 35,404 in the 65,000-seat stadium.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

USF began the season ranked 19th and slipped three spots after having to overcome slow starts to beat San Jose State on the road and Stony Brook at home. Illinois might be the best of the teams they've faced but a less-than-sharp performance against the Illini likely won't do much to improve their position.

UP NEXT

Illinois: Off next week before the Big Ten opener at home against Nebraska on Sept. 29.

South Florida: Remain home for the American Athletic Conference opener against Temple on Thursday night.