Vegas Money Moves - Week 12
November 25, 2016
There's a lot Thanksgiving leftovers in Las Vegas, but not the kind the sports books like.
Thursday's three NFL games put the books in a hole for one of the most volatile weekends of the year where carryover risk daisy-chains into Friday, Saturday and Sunday and then finally concludes with a big firecracker on Monday night. The ideal Thanksgiving for the books is to bank enough money Thursday to offset some of that eventual risk that will morph into big payouts.
"Teasers killed us yesterday," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews. "I shouldn't say killed, but we lost on the day due to them."
If you bet all sides on the Thursday teaser, you went 5-1 with the Colts being the only side that failed. If you bet all sides of the teaser, including the total, in the Redskins-Cowboys game, you went 4-0. Fortunately for the books the popular Cowboys (-5.5) barely failed to cover the number which slowed parlay risk. But the bad news for all the books was that everyone reloaded with the Steelers (-8) in the nightcap, and many of those parlay and teaser tickets are still alive heading into the weekend.
Sunday's Week 12 games aren't the most attractive, but they'll still be wagered on heavily just because that's what we do, right? Andrews took some time out of his busy Friday afternoon to review where the South Point's heaviest risk is at with more than 85 percent of the action still to come over the next three days.
"We've seen lots of Titans action with all the questions about Chicago's quarterback," said Andrews. "The line has been driven up from -2.5 to -4.5."
Bears QB Jay Cutler is 'out' for the game and back-up Matt Barkley will start, which is part of the reason so many love Tennessee laying points on the road this week.
"We've had strong opinions and heavy action on both sides of the Cardinals and Falcons (-5) game," Andrews said showing that people still believe in the Cardinals after not covering their past three games. But the high scoring Falcons have covered just once in their last four.
"The Saints are one of those games that the wise guys and public are both on. Wise guys bet it from -7 to -7.5, and the public has been betting it ever since. It's going to be a huge game for us, and I'm not optimistic. Hopefully, Fisher will open it up a little more and give Goff a chance to do something on offense."
The Rams defense and the conservative offense has helped their last four games stay 'under' while the Saints have gone 8-2-1 to the 'over' in their last 11 home games. The total is sitting at 45.5, the only total lower than 50 offered at New Orleans this season.
"The public loves the Giants, but the sharps are on the Browns making us go from -7 to -6.5," said Andrews. "Still, this is a huge teaser game for us; the parlay's and money-line are high too with the Giants."
The teaser effect from Thanksgiving leftovers is making a few of these games stand out like sore thumbs for the books.
"We got a little wise-guy play on the Seahawks (-6 at Tampa Bay), and also a lot of teaser play with them. We're going to need a few upsets on the day to help us with these live teasers."
The best game of the day on paper looks to be an AFC West battle for second-place with Kansas City traveling to Denver for the Sunday night game.
"We've had sharp play on each side with the Chiefs and Broncos (-3.5)," Andrews said, "and the public is also split. It's one of our most bet games of the day so far."
Despite such an early sample size of action, the most one-sided bet game with ticket counts is, of course, on the Patriots.
"Wise guys are on the Jets (+7.5), but again the public is all over the Patriots."
Andrews can take at least some comfort in knowing Rob Gronkowski is 'doubtful' and that the Jets have gone 5-0-1 ATS against the Patriots the past three seasons.
November 25, 2016
There's a lot Thanksgiving leftovers in Las Vegas, but not the kind the sports books like.
Thursday's three NFL games put the books in a hole for one of the most volatile weekends of the year where carryover risk daisy-chains into Friday, Saturday and Sunday and then finally concludes with a big firecracker on Monday night. The ideal Thanksgiving for the books is to bank enough money Thursday to offset some of that eventual risk that will morph into big payouts.
"Teasers killed us yesterday," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews. "I shouldn't say killed, but we lost on the day due to them."
If you bet all sides on the Thursday teaser, you went 5-1 with the Colts being the only side that failed. If you bet all sides of the teaser, including the total, in the Redskins-Cowboys game, you went 4-0. Fortunately for the books the popular Cowboys (-5.5) barely failed to cover the number which slowed parlay risk. But the bad news for all the books was that everyone reloaded with the Steelers (-8) in the nightcap, and many of those parlay and teaser tickets are still alive heading into the weekend.
Sunday's Week 12 games aren't the most attractive, but they'll still be wagered on heavily just because that's what we do, right? Andrews took some time out of his busy Friday afternoon to review where the South Point's heaviest risk is at with more than 85 percent of the action still to come over the next three days.
"We've seen lots of Titans action with all the questions about Chicago's quarterback," said Andrews. "The line has been driven up from -2.5 to -4.5."
Bears QB Jay Cutler is 'out' for the game and back-up Matt Barkley will start, which is part of the reason so many love Tennessee laying points on the road this week.
"We've had strong opinions and heavy action on both sides of the Cardinals and Falcons (-5) game," Andrews said showing that people still believe in the Cardinals after not covering their past three games. But the high scoring Falcons have covered just once in their last four.
"The Saints are one of those games that the wise guys and public are both on. Wise guys bet it from -7 to -7.5, and the public has been betting it ever since. It's going to be a huge game for us, and I'm not optimistic. Hopefully, Fisher will open it up a little more and give Goff a chance to do something on offense."
The Rams defense and the conservative offense has helped their last four games stay 'under' while the Saints have gone 8-2-1 to the 'over' in their last 11 home games. The total is sitting at 45.5, the only total lower than 50 offered at New Orleans this season.
"The public loves the Giants, but the sharps are on the Browns making us go from -7 to -6.5," said Andrews. "Still, this is a huge teaser game for us; the parlay's and money-line are high too with the Giants."
The teaser effect from Thanksgiving leftovers is making a few of these games stand out like sore thumbs for the books.
"We got a little wise-guy play on the Seahawks (-6 at Tampa Bay), and also a lot of teaser play with them. We're going to need a few upsets on the day to help us with these live teasers."
The best game of the day on paper looks to be an AFC West battle for second-place with Kansas City traveling to Denver for the Sunday night game.
"We've had sharp play on each side with the Chiefs and Broncos (-3.5)," Andrews said, "and the public is also split. It's one of our most bet games of the day so far."
Despite such an early sample size of action, the most one-sided bet game with ticket counts is, of course, on the Patriots.
"Wise guys are on the Jets (+7.5), but again the public is all over the Patriots."
Andrews can take at least some comfort in knowing Rob Gronkowski is 'doubtful' and that the Jets have gone 5-0-1 ATS against the Patriots the past three seasons.
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