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  • Vegas Money Moves - Week 12
    November 25, 2016

    There's a lot Thanksgiving leftovers in Las Vegas, but not the kind the sports books like.

    Thursday's three NFL games put the books in a hole for one of the most volatile weekends of the year where carryover risk daisy-chains into Friday, Saturday and Sunday and then finally concludes with a big firecracker on Monday night. The ideal Thanksgiving for the books is to bank enough money Thursday to offset some of that eventual risk that will morph into big payouts.

    "Teasers killed us yesterday," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews. "I shouldn't say killed, but we lost on the day due to them."

    If you bet all sides on the Thursday teaser, you went 5-1 with the Colts being the only side that failed. If you bet all sides of the teaser, including the total, in the Redskins-Cowboys game, you went 4-0. Fortunately for the books the popular Cowboys (-5.5) barely failed to cover the number which slowed parlay risk. But the bad news for all the books was that everyone reloaded with the Steelers (-8) in the nightcap, and many of those parlay and teaser tickets are still alive heading into the weekend.

    Sunday's Week 12 games aren't the most attractive, but they'll still be wagered on heavily just because that's what we do, right? Andrews took some time out of his busy Friday afternoon to review where the South Point's heaviest risk is at with more than 85 percent of the action still to come over the next three days.

    "We've seen lots of Titans action with all the questions about Chicago's quarterback," said Andrews. "The line has been driven up from -2.5 to -4.5."

    Bears QB Jay Cutler is 'out' for the game and back-up Matt Barkley will start, which is part of the reason so many love Tennessee laying points on the road this week.

    "We've had strong opinions and heavy action on both sides of the Cardinals and Falcons (-5) game," Andrews said showing that people still believe in the Cardinals after not covering their past three games. But the high scoring Falcons have covered just once in their last four.

    "The Saints are one of those games that the wise guys and public are both on. Wise guys bet it from -7 to -7.5, and the public has been betting it ever since. It's going to be a huge game for us, and I'm not optimistic. Hopefully, Fisher will open it up a little more and give Goff a chance to do something on offense."

    The Rams defense and the conservative offense has helped their last four games stay 'under' while the Saints have gone 8-2-1 to the 'over' in their last 11 home games. The total is sitting at 45.5, the only total lower than 50 offered at New Orleans this season.

    "The public loves the Giants, but the sharps are on the Browns making us go from -7 to -6.5," said Andrews. "Still, this is a huge teaser game for us; the parlay's and money-line are high too with the Giants."

    The teaser effect from Thanksgiving leftovers is making a few of these games stand out like sore thumbs for the books.

    "We got a little wise-guy play on the Seahawks (-6 at Tampa Bay), and also a lot of teaser play with them. We're going to need a few upsets on the day to help us with these live teasers."

    The best game of the day on paper looks to be an AFC West battle for second-place with Kansas City traveling to Denver for the Sunday night game.

    "We've had sharp play on each side with the Chiefs and Broncos (-3.5)," Andrews said, "and the public is also split. It's one of our most bet games of the day so far."

    Despite such an early sample size of action, the most one-sided bet game with ticket counts is, of course, on the Patriots.

    "Wise guys are on the Jets (+7.5), but again the public is all over the Patriots."

    Andrews can take at least some comfort in knowing Rob Gronkowski is 'doubtful' and that the Jets have gone 5-0-1 ATS against the Patriots the past three seasons.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • Gridiron Angles - Week 12
      November 26, 2016


      NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

      -- The Jets are 10-0 ATS (6.25 ppg) since Jan 01, 2006 at home after a home game where they threw for less than 200 yards.

      NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

      -- The Raiders are 0-11 ATS (-8.09 ppg) since Nov 21, 2004 at home when the total is at least 46 coming off a win.

      NFL PLAYER TREND:

      -- The Falcons are 0-9 ATS (-8.83 ppg) since Sep 29, 2013 coming off a loss where Julio Jones had at least 100 receiving yards.

      NFL O/U OVER TREND:

      -- The Eagles are 15-0 OU (9.97 ppg) since Oct 06, 2013 off a loss where they made at least 5 third downs.

      NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

      -- The Broncos are 0-10 OU (-9.05 ppg) since Oct 23, 2011 off a game as a dog where they forced at least two turnovers.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • Pick Six - Week 12
        November 26, 2016


        Week 11 Record: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS
        Overall Record: 32-34 SU, 29-35-1 ATS

        Review: The Rams blew late 10-0 lead to the Dolphins, which was the most disappointing loss of the week. Both Indianapolis and Minnesota cashed at home, but Baltimore and Philadelphia couldn't come through as road underdogs.

        Chargers (-2, 46 ½) at Texans – 1:00 PM EST

        San Diego
        Record: 4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS, 8-2 OVER
        Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

        In spite of sitting in last place of the loaded AFC West, San Diego is several plays away from being in the middle of the AFC Wild Card race. The Chargers were off last week, but blew a 10-0 lead in a Week 10 home loss to the Dolphins, 31-24 as Philip Rivers was intercepted four times in the fourth quarter. San Diego is listed as a road favorite for the first time this season, as the Chargers have won just once in five road contests coming at Atlanta in overtime in Week 7.

        Houston
        Record: 6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 5-5 OVER
        Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

        Very curious line here as the Texans have yet to lose a game at NRG Stadium this season, going 5-0 at home. Houston returns to the friendly confines following a 27-20 loss to Oakland in Mexico City last Monday night in spite of limiting the Raiders to 30 yards rushing on 20 carries. The good news for the Texans is they have yet to lose back-to-back games this season, posting a 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS record off a defeat. Houston has never covered against San Diego in five lifetime meetings, while beating the Chargers only once, coming in the 2013 season opener, 31-28 at Qualcomm Stadium.

        Best Bet: Houston +2


        Bengals at Ravens (-4, 40 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

        Cincinnati
        Record: 3-6-1 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 OVER
        Super Bowl Odds: 250/1

        If things couldn’t get any worse for the struggling Bengals, Cincinnati lose offensive weapons Giovani Bernard and A.J. Green to long-term injuries in last Sunday’s loss to the Bills. Green is obviously a huge blow to this Cincinnati offense as the All-Pro wide receiver ranks third in the NFL in receiving yards with 964 yards as he is out with a hamstring tear. The Bengals have won only once in their last six games with that lone victory coming against the winless Browns, while losing four straight contests away from Paul Brown Stadium.

        Baltimore
        Record: 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS, 6-3-1 UNDER
        Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

        The Ravens have seen plenty of ups and downs this season, starting 3-0, then losing four straight, followed by a two-game winning streak. Baltimore took a step backwards last Sunday in a 27-17 defeat at Dallas as seven-point underdogs to drop its third consecutive road contest. The Ravens look to sweep the AFC North at home after picking up November home victories over the Steelers and Browns. Baltimore has dropped five straight meetings with Cincinnati, including a 28-24 home setback to the Bengals last season.

        Best Bet: Baltimore -4


        Cardinals at Falcons (-6, 50 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

        Arizona
        Record: 4-5-1 SU, 3-7 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
        Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

        The Cardinals were on the doorstep of the Super Bowl last season, but were blown out in the NFC Championship by the Panthers. Arizona has never really built momentum off that playoff run as the Cardinals are attempting to reach the .500 mark with a win. The Cards outgained the Vikings last Sunday, 290-217, but Minnesota scored a pair of non-offensive touchdowns in a 30-24 victory. Arizona is 0-4 ATS the last four games, but the Cardinals have not been listed as an underdog of more than 2 ½ points this season.

        Atlanta
        Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 8-2 OVER
        Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

        The Falcons sit atop the NFC South at 6-4 as they return to action off the bye week. Atlanta lost prior to the bye in a 24-15 setback at Philadelphia in its lowest-scoring game of the season. The Falcons have struggled to cash in the favorite role by posting a 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS record when laying points, while covering only once in the last nine tries as a home favorite under Dan Quinn. All four games played at the Georgia Dome this season have finished OVER the total, while the Falcons have won the last six meetings with the Cardinals at home since 1999.

        Best Bet: Arizona +6


        Seahawks (-6, 45) at Buccaneers – 4:05 PM EST

        Seattle
        Record: 7-2-1 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-5 OVER
        Super Bowl Odds: 5/1

        The Seahawks put together a pair of ugly performances to close out October with a tie at Arizona and a loss at New Orleans. However, Seattle has rebounded nicely in November by winning three straight games, including an underdog triumph at New England. The Seahawks have scored at least 26 points in each of the past three wins, including in a 26-15 home victory over the Eagles last Sunday as 6 ½-point favorites. In the Eastern Time Zone this season, Seattle owns a 2-0 SU/ATS record with wins over the Patriots and Jets, while posting victories in six of the past eight games on the east coast since 2014.

        Tampa Bay
        Record: 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 6-4 OVER
        Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

        Only if the Buccaneers can play as well on the road as they do when they take the field at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay may lead the NFC South. The Bucs improved to 4-1 on the highway following last Sunday’s 19-17 triumph as seven-point underdogs at Kansas City. Tampa Bay has been the polar opposite at home by putting together a dreadful 1-4 record with the lone victory coming over Chicago. In four home losses, the Bucs have allowed at least 27 points, including defeats to the Falcons, Raiders, and Broncos, all teams currently with six wins or more. Since the start of 2014, Tampa Bay has compiled a dreadful 3-7 ATS record in the role of a home underdog.

        Best Bet: Seattle -6


        Panthers at Raiders (-3, 49 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

        Carolina
        Record: 4-6 SU, 2-7-1 ATS, 5-5 OVER
        Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

        The Panthers venture out to the west coast trying to keep up momentum off a 3-1 run the last four games. Carolina held off New Orleans last Thursday, 23-20, but the Panthers failed to cover as 3 ½-point favorites as the defending NFC champions played poorly in the fourth quarter for the second straight week. Since blowing out San Francisco in Week 2, Carolina owns a pathetic 1-6-1 ATS record the last eight games, while winning only once in four road contests. However, the Panthers are listed in the underdog role for the first time this season as Carolina put together a 2-0 SU/ATS mark as a ‘dog in 2015.

        Oakland
        Record: 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS, 8-2 OVER
        Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

        The Raiders have lived up to preseason expectations and then some by winning eight of their first 10 games. Oakland returns to the Black Hole after rallying past Houston last Monday night, 27-20 to pick up its fourth consecutive victory. The Silver and Black has cashed the OVER in all three games against NFC South opponents this season, but the Raiders are 2-5 against NFC foes under Jack Del Rio. In five opportunities as a home favorite since the start of 2015, the Raiders have covered only once, coming against the Broncos in a Week 9 victory.

        Best Bet: Carolina +3

        Patriots (-7 ½, 46) at Jets – 4:25 PM EST

        New England
        Record: 8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
        Super Bowl Odds: 13/5

        Following a home loss to Seattle two weeks ago, the Patriots rebounded in a huge way with a 30-17 triumph over San Francisco to cash as 10 ½-point road favorites. Tom Brady tossed four touchdown passes for the second time in three weeks, while New England racked up 444 yards of offense to improve to 5-0 away from Gillette Stadium. Rob Gronkowski will sit for the second consecutive week for New England as the All-Pro tight end is out with a lung injury. The Patriots have failed to cover in their last three trips to Met Life Stadium, including dropping a 26-20 overtime decision last December as 2 ½-point favorites.

        New York
        Record: 3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-4-1 OVER
        Super Bowl Odds: 1000/1

        The Jets return from the bye week trying to finish the season on a positive note after putting up only six points against the Rams two weeks ago. Ryan Fitzpatrick returns under center for the Jets after missing the Los Angeles defeat with a knee injury as backup Bryce Petty threw for 163 yards against the Rams. In last December’s overtime victory over New England, Fitzpatrick tossed three touchdown passes, as the New York quarterback threw five touchdowns and wasn’t intercepted once in two matchups against the Patriots.

        Best Bet: New York +7 ½
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • Total Talk - Week 12
          November 26, 2016


          Week 11 and Thanksgiving Day Recaps

          The ‘under’ produced an 11-3 record in Week 11 as the defensive units dominated the offense last week. Only three teams were able to score 30-plus points and some of those numbers were misleading. The Redskins and Patriots scored 20 and 17 points respectively in the fourth quarter of their wins and the Vikings received 14 of their points from defense and special teams.

          Thanksgiving Day continued the ‘under’ trend (2-1) and it was almost a perfect day for the low side but the Cowboys and Redskins combined for 34 points in the final 15 minutes and the ‘over’ winner certainly made the turkey taste better for many.

          Excluding the holiday results, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge with an 82-78-1 record through 11 weeks.

          Week 12 – Keep an Eye on!

          -- The Saints host the Rams on Sunday and New Orleans hasn’t had a total (45 ½) this low at home since the 2010 regular season when they met Seattle at the Superdome. The number seems fair considering Los Angeles has a very sound defense (18.7 PPG) and the combination of a rookie quarterback and Jeff Fisher scream ‘under’ tickets.

          -- San Diego has watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 this season, 4-1 on the road. However, the Bolts meet a Houston defense (16.4 PPG) that has been great at home.

          -- The ‘over’ has gone 14-5-1 in the last 20 meetings between the Jets and Patriots.

          -- Oakland has watched the ‘over’ cash in four straight and eight of 10 games this season. Carolina visits this weekend and if you take away a pair of indoor shootouts, the Panthers defense (19.6 PPG) has stepped up in outdoor games.

          -- The Browns have seen the ‘under’ go 8-3 in the second-half of their first 11 games, due to an offense averaging a league low 5.5 points per game in the final 30 minutes.

          Road System

          Since I started writing Total Talk in 2008, I’ve always appreciated the user feedback and love when trends, angles and systems are brought to my attention. The goal of VegasInsider.com is to inform and entertain, and hopefully help you win all of your wagers. With that being said, this particular total system was sent to me years ago and it’s something to keep an eye this weekend.

          What’s the angle?

          Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game

          The above fits this weekend when Green Bay plays at Philadelphia on Monday night. This situation only happens one another time this regular season, which will take place in Week 14 when Washington will play its third consecutive road game, coincidentally at Philadelphia.

          I’ve charted the outcomes and the system has produced a 39-19-1 (67%) record the past 12 seasons but it did go 2-2 in the 2015 matchups.

          Week 5: Jacksonville 31 at Tampa Bay 38 (Over 41 ½)
          Week 10: Miami 20 at Philadelphia 19 (Under 49 ½)
          Week 12: Buffalo 22 at Kansas City 30 (Over 41)
          Week 15: Atlanta 17 at Jacksonville 23 (Under 48)

          Coast to Coast


          This popular seasonal total trend returns in Week 12 with three situations on tap. If you’re a new reader to Total Talk, then let’s bring you up to speed. West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone have seen the ‘over’ go 11-1 (91.6%) this season and if you include the results from last season, the ‘over’ is 22-6 (79%) when these situations arise.

          Obviously no system is perfect and I’d advise you to still handicap the matchup rather than betting this blindly. A case in point would be Week 10 when the Rams defeated the Jets 9-6 on the road in Week 10. New York made a late QB change and the ‘over’ never had a chance.

          Arizona at Atlanta: This matchup has all the makings for a shootout and it’s the highest number (50 ½) on the board. The Cardinals have seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 on the road and Atlanta has been a clear-cut ‘over’ team (8-2) this season. Arizona has made two trips to the East Coast this season and has surrendered 33 and 30 points.

          San Francisco at Miami: This total (44 ½) seems a little tricky because Miami has serious injuries across the offensive line and that showed in last week’s effort at Los Angeles (14-10). The 49ers scoring defense is still ranked last (31.3 PPG) and they’ve allowed 46 and 45 points in two trips to the East Coast this season. Miami has watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 at Hard Rock Stadium this season but a couple of those tickets were helped with late scores.

          Seattle at Tampa Bay: Another tough total (45) to handicap because I believe Tampa Bay will have the opportunity to score on this banged-up Seattle defense. While I expect the Seahawks to move the ball, Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid the last two weeks (both wins) with six turnovers and four sacks. The Bucs have been lit up at home this season (29.4 PPG) but the Seattle offense hasn’t been a juggernaut (17.4 PPG) on the road. The ‘Hawks scored 27 and 31 points in two East Coast matchups this season but I believe this could be a flat spot for them based on making two cross-country trips in three weeks. Fortunately for Seattle, this is a late game (4:05 p.m. ET) on Sunday.

          Under the Lights


          The ‘over’ went 2-1 in the primetime matchups last week and both tickets to the high side cashed with late fourth quarter surges. Including Thursday’s holiday result between Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, the ‘under’ has gone 19-16-1 this season.

          Kansas City at Denver: It’s always dangerous to lean ‘under’ with low totals (38 ½) but that appears to be the right lean based on what we’ve seen from the pair lately. The Chiefs have watched the ‘under’ go 8-2 this season and that includes a run of six straight. Denver has seen the ‘under’ go 5-2 in its last seven and it’s been a solid ‘under’ bet off its bye week recently (4-1 last five). The ‘under’ has gone 6-2-2 in the last 10 meetings between the pair.

          Green Bay at Philadelphia: The Packers have seen the ‘over’ cash in four straight and the defense (38.3 PPG) has been embarrassed during this span. I’d expect Philadelphia’s offense to have success as well but the outcome of this total will come down to the Green Bay offense against the Philadelphia defense. All the numbers point to the Birds in that matchup, who are allowing a league-best 9.5 PPG at home this season and they shut down some quality quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan too. They also have run up 26 sacks in 10 games and 15 of those have come at home, which is tops in the NFL. Even though the above “road system” says ‘over’ in this matchup, I’d tread lightly based on the matchup.

          Fearless Predictions

          Another profitable weekend ($190) in Week 11 was quickly erased on Thanksgiving ($320) and the overall bankroll is barely staying in the black ($10). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

          Best Over: Seattle-Tampa Bay 45

          Best Under: Tennessee-Chicago 42

          Best Team Total: Over 19 ½ Tampa Bay

          Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
          Under 51 Tennessee-Chicago
          Over 41 ½ Arizona-Atlanta
          Under 58 ½ Carolina-Oakland
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • SuperContest Picks - Week 12
            November 26, 2016


            The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

            Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

            The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

            This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

            Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

            Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9

            Week 10 | Week 11

            Week 12

            1) Tennessee -4.5 (514)
            2) Atlanta -4 (480)
            3) Washington +7 (405) WIN
            4) Baltimore +4 (387)
            5) Kansas City +3.5 (380)

            SUPERCONTEST WEEK 12 MATCHUPS & ODDS
            Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
            Minnesota (+2.5) 235 Detroit (-2.5) 265
            Washington (+7) 405 Dallas (-7) 153
            Pittsburgh (-8) 306 Indianapolis (+8) 94
            San Diego (-1.5) 356 Houston (+1.5) 333
            Tennessee (-4.5) 514 Chicago (+4.5) 127
            Jacksonville (+7.5) 178 Buffalo (-7.5) 221
            Cincinnati (+4) 197 Baltimore (-4) 387
            Arizona ( +4) 280 Atlanta (-4) 480
            San Francisco (+7.5) 198 Miami (-7.5) 208
            Los Angeles (+7) 181 New Orleans (-7) 319
            N.Y. Giants (-7) 344 Cleveland (+7) 220
            Seattle (-6) 337 Tampa Bay (+6) 272
            Carolina (+3) 347 Oakland (-3) 379
            Kansas City (+3.5) 380 Denver (-3.5) 260
            New England (-8) 288 N.Y. Jets (+8) 264
            Green Bay (+4) 204 Philadelphia (-4) 303

            WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
            Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
            1 3-2 3-2 60%
            2 0-5 3-7 30%
            3 0-5 3-12 20%
            4 1-4 4-16 20%
            5 3-2 6-14 30%
            6 1-3-1 5-19-1 21%
            7 3-2 8-21-1 28%
            8 3-2 11-23-1 32%
            9 2-3 13-26-1 33%
            10 0-5 13-31-1 29%
            11 3-2 16-33-1 33%
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • SNF - Chiefs at Broncos
              November 26, 2016


              Sunday Night Football gives us a classic AFC West matchup with Kansas City visiting Denver, but the circumstances this time around are a little unusual as neither of the two 7-3 teams are sitting in first-place. Oakland holds that distinction, but depending on how the Raiders (8-2) fare at home against Carolina, the winner of this game could find themselves in a first-place tie.

              The Broncos come off a bye and are listed as 3.5-point favorites with a total hovering around 39. They've won three of their last four, including an improbable 25-23 win at New Orleans in their last game that featured a winning defensive two-point conversion. The offense has been extremely vanilla with QB Trevor Siemian while in search of a running game, but the No. 4 ranked defense has kept them within reach of a win in every game. The Orange Crush pass rush has sacked opposing QBs 29 times, just two behind NFL leading Buffalo.

              Kansas City had a five-game win streak snapped as 7-point home favorites in a 19-17 loss to Tampa Bay. Just like Denver, they too have a vanilla averaging just 97 rushing ypg, but rely on the opportunistic defense to pave the way to victory. They lead the NFL with 23 turnovers forced and have a turnover ratio of +13. Denver's offense has turned the ball over 15 times and Siemian has been sacked 26 times, both areas that the Chiefs will look to exploit.

              The Chiefs combination of a conservative offense and opportunistic defense has seen them stay Under the total in their last six and eight of 10 this season. The Broncos have stayed Under in five of their last seven. Both defenses allow only 18 ppg.

              RECENT MEETINGS

              The road team has covered the last five meetings, including the underdog covering the last four. Denver has gone 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and the Under has gone 3-0-2 in the last five at Denver. Kansas City (+3.5, 42) won 29-13 at Denver in the last meeting in 2015 and Denver (+3, 42) won 31-24 at Kansas City in the earlier meeting.

              LINE MOVEMENT

              MGM sports books opened Denver -3 on Monday and within an hour it was bet up to -3.5 where it's remained all week through Saturday. The low number in town is at William Hill book at -3 (-120). The low total number is 38.5 at Stratosphere and Caesars books and the high number is at 39.5 at multiple books.

              WHO THE BETTORS TAKING?

              "We've had sharp play on each side with the Chiefs and Broncos," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews, "and the public is also split. It's one of our most bet games of the day."

              ROBERTS' RATING

              I have the Chiefs a half-point better than the Broncos and I give Denver a full three points for home field which makes my number Kansas City -2.5. I have the Raiders a half-point better than Kansas City making them the second highest rated AFC team, 4-points behind the Patriots.

              DIVISION ODDS (WESTGATE)

              The Broncos came into the season as 3-to-2 favorites to win the AFC West with the Chiefs close behind at 8-to-5. The Raiders were the third choice at 7-to-2 and currently lead the division which has forced the odds to flip with them as the 10-to-13 favorite. Denver is now 3-to-1 and Kansas City 11-to-4. The Chargers have been eliminated from contention.

              SUPER BOWL ODDS (WESTGATE)

              Raiders (14/1), Broncos (20/1), Chiefs (25/1)

              WEATHER

              A storm front can sneak up over the rockies onto Denver at a moments notice, but as of Saturday there doesn't appear a chance of snow or rain. It will be a crisp 49 degrees, which isn't a big deal, but the 15 mph winds is certainly something to take notice of.

              INJURIES

              CHIEFS: Charcandrick West (concussion) ?, DE Dee Ford (hamstring) ?, WR Jeremy Maclin (groin) ?, DB Marcus Peters (hip) ?, DT Jaye Howard (hip) ?
              BRONCOS: CB Kayvon Webster (abdomen) ?, CB Aqib Talib (lower back) ?

              TRENDS

              -- Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in last four coming of an ATS loss.
              -- Kansas City is 8-3 ATS in last 11 road games.
              -- Kansas City is 5-0 to the Under in last five following a loss.
              -- Denver is 6-1-1 ATS in last eight home games.
              -- Denver is 1-4 ATS in last five against AFC West teams.
              -- Denver is 6-1 to the Under in last seven against winning teams.

              NEXT WEEK

              The Westgate SuperBook posted their early Week 13 spreads on Tuesday and have Denver -4.5 at Jacksonville and Kansas City getting +3.5 at Atlanta.
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • Essential Week 12 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

                The Patriots are 7.5-point favorites @ the Jets, but are 0-5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with New York.

                Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (5.5, 42)


                * The Titans’ offense has made one of the league’s biggest turnarounds from a season ago behind a potent ground attack featuring Murray and Marcus Mariota. The running quarterback also has blossomed as a passer in his second professional season, passing for 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions - with multiple scoring tosses in a franchise-record seven consecutive games. The Titans’ defense should have success if it can stop the run and keep pressure on Barkley with a strong pass rush led by linebackers Brian Orakpo (nine sacks) and Derrick Morgan (eight).

                * Chicago’s injury woes continue to mount, as Cutler will be joined on the sideline by guard Kyle Long (ankle) while receiver Alshon Jeffery serves the second game of a four-game suspension for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs. The Bears’ linebacking corps also is thin, with rookie Leonard Floyd suffering from a concussion and leading tackler Jerrell Freeman beginning his own four-game suspension for PEDs. That’s bad news for a team that relies on its defense to keep it in games and ranks 31st in the league in scoring.

                LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened the week as 2-point home dogs and that line has been growing all week, as of Saturday the line has grown to 5.5. The total opened 44.5 and has been bet down to 41.5. Check out the complete line history here.

                TRENDS:

                * Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
                * Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
                * Over is 4-0 in Titans last 4 games following a straight up loss.
                * Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
                * Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

                Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 45)

                * Chad Henne received more work in practice for the Jaguars during the week and would get the start should Bortles not be available. The Jaguars lost veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis to a season-ending calf injury against the Lions and running back T.J. Yeldon is questionable with an ankle injury for Jacksonville, which has lost five straight games. The Jaguars limited Detroit to just 14 yards on the ground last week but lost their third straight road game, two of wthem by one possession.

                * Should McCoy not go, Mike Gillislie (326 yards, 4 TDs) would get the start and the offense could be further hindered by the absence of their top two receivers. Watkins is available to come off the injured reserve list this week after undergoing foot surgery and was cleared to practice Wednesday while Woods, who leads the Bills this season with 42 catches for 493 yards, is unlikely to play Sunday after suffering a sprained knee last week on a controversial hit by Vontaze Burfict. After going 0-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less this season, Buffalo squeezed by Cincinnati last week to snap its three-game losing streak but the victory was clearly aided by the Bengals' early loss of wide receiver A.J. Green.

                LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened the week as 7-point home favorites against the Jags and that number quickly rose half point to 7.5 and has held all week. The total opened at 45.5 and faded during the week as low as 44, before rebounding to 45. Check out the complete line history here.

                TRENDS:

                * Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
                * Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
                * Over is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 vs. AFC.
                * Over is 4-0 in Bills last 4 home games.
                * Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

                Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 40.5)

                * Cincinnati already had a void in their receiving corps following the offseason departures of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, but there is no way to replace Green, who had racked up 66 receptions for for 964 yards and fourth touchdowns through the first nine games. Rookie Tyler Boyd, who matched his season high with six catches last week, and journeyman Brandon LaFell will start and, along with tight end Tyler Eifert, serve as quarterback Andy Dalton's top targets. Bernard's loss is another huge blow, leaving Jeremy Hill to handle the rushing duties and taking away the prime pass-catching threat from the backfield. Cincinnati's defense is vulnerable to the run, permitting 123.4 yards per game.

                * Veteran Steve Smith Sr., the oldest wideout in the league, continues to turn back the clock after becoming the 14th receiver in league history to reach 1,000 career receptions. Smith, who planned to retire a year ago before sustaining a season-ending injury, hit the milestone with eight catches for 99 yards and a touchdown in last week's loss. Baltimore needs to mount a consistent running attack with Terrance West and rookie Kenneth Dixon - who had eight and six carries, respectively, in Dallas - to keep the onus off Joe Flacco, who has made at least 40 pass attempts in seven of his last nine games. The Ravens are No. 2 in the league with 295.1 yards allowed per game.

                LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened this AFC North battle as 3.5-point home favorites and that number jumped as high as 4.5, before fading back to 3.5 late in the week. As of Saturday the number has settled at 4. The total opened at 41.5 and has been bet down to 40. Check out the complete line history here.

                TRENDS:

                * Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
                * Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC North.
                * Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 vs. AFC North.
                * Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
                * Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

                Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-6, 50.5)

                * Arizona began the season in a 1-3 hole and can't quite seem to dig its way out as mistakes continue to pile up. "Just taking turns making mistakes, and that's frustrating," Fitzgerald told reporters. "Six games left in the regular season at this point and we have no room for error moving forward. None." Plenty of those mistakes are coming from quarterback Carson Palmer, who recorded five of his 10 interceptions in the last three games and managed a season-low 198 passing yards in a 30-24 loss at Minnesota last week.

                * Matt Ryan is second in the NFL in passing yards (3,247) and has thrown for 24 touchdowns with five interceptions in the best season of his strong career. Ryan is in line to get more help from the running game with the return of Tevin Coleman, who sat out the last three games with a hamstring injury but looked fast at practice this week. "That's what we were checking to see with Tevin," coach Dan Quinn told reporters. "Would he have the speed to get in and out of his breaks that make him such a unique player? So we saw the speed with him."

                LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened the week as 4-point home favorites and that number has grown two point to 6 late in the week. The total opened at 50.5 and has risen half point to 51. Check out the complete line history here.

                TRENDS:

                * Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
                * Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
                * Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 road games.
                * Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
                * Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

                New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (7, 44)

                * Jason Pierre-Paul was one of four players who did not participate in practice on Wednesday. The veteran defensive end, who registered 2 1/2 sacks in the win over the Bears, is dealing with a sore knee. Odell Beckham Jr. has made all of his team-leading six touchdown catches over the last six games and has recorded a league-high 31 since 2014.

                * Robert Griffin III, who hasn't played since breaking a bone in his shoulder in the season opener against Philadelphia, practiced Wednesday after being designated for return from injured reserve. The 26-year-old Griffin, who has yet to be cleared for contact, will remain on IR for the rest of the season if Cleveland does not activate him within 21 days. Rookie Kevin Hogan, who has completed 14-of-26 passes for 104 yards with two interceptions in three games this season, will serve as McCown's backup on Sunday.

                LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened the week as 7-point road favorites against the winless Browns and were briefly faded down to 6.5 midweek before rising back to 7. The total opened at 44.5 and inched down half point to 44. Check out the complete line history here.

                TRENDS:

                * Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
                * Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
                * Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 road games.
                * Under is 8-1 in Browns last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.

                San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans (1, 46.5)


                * Philip Rivers had a roller-coaster afternoon against Miami, as he threw three touchdown passes but was intercepted four times. The trio of scoring tosses gave him 301 for his career, moving him past John Elway for eighth place on the all-time list, while the four picks came within a span of 13 minutes in the fourth quarter. Ronnie Hillman, who led Denver in rushing last season with a career-high 863 yards but was released in September, was claimed off waivers from Minnesota after gaining 50 yards on 18 carries in five games with the Vikings.

                * All signs point to a victory for Houston, as the club has won each of its five home games thus far this season while Brock Osweiler is 2-0 lifetime as a starter against San Diego. Tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz has made a touchdown catch in each of his last three home games while rookie wideout Braxton Miller made his first TD reception in last week's loss. Jadeveon Clowney leads all defensive ends and is second overall in the league with 12 tackles for loss.

                LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, the bettors have spoken and as of Saturday morning the Texans are 1-point favorites at home. The total opened 47 and was dropped to 46 and held that number the remainder of the week. Check out the complete line history here.

                TRENDS:

                * Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
                * Texans are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
                * Over is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 games on grass.
                * Over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
                * Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

                San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-7.5, 44.5)

                * San Francisco already owns the worst defense in the league, giving up 31.3 points and 431.1 yards per game, and continues to be ravaged by season-ending injuries. The latest was to safety Eric Reid, who suffered a biceps tear in last week's loss to New England to join linebacker NaVorro Bowman - the NFL's leading tackler last season - and 2015 first-round draft pick Arik Armstead on the shelf. While speedster Torrey Smith missed his first career game last week, tight end Vance McDonald continues to emerge as one of Colin Kaepernick's trusted receivers with six targets in each of the last four games. Running back Carlos Hyde is coming off one of his best games of the season with 86 yards on 19 carries.

                * With the 49ers yielding 179.5 rushing yards per game, logic dictates that Miami feature a heavy dose of Jay Ajayi, who had back-to-back 200-yard games last month and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. However, the Dolphins could be without three starters along the offensive line as left tackle Branden Albert, first-round draft pick Laremy Tunsil and center Mike Pouncey all are dealing with injuries. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the offense were dreadful for most of last week's victory with nine punts and an interception on the first 10 possessions before he connected on a pair of late TD passes to wideouts Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. Miami's run defense ranks 30th at 126.1 yards per game.

                LINE HISTORY: The Dolphins opened as 7.5-home favorites and that has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and been faded down to one full point to 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.

                TRENDS:

                * 49ers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
                * Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
                * Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 road games.
                * Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games following a ATS win.
                * 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

                Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-7, 45.5)

                * Los Angeles started Goff's debut fairly well last week, racing out to a 10-0 lead, but Goff played little part in it. Struggling back Todd Gurley gave the Rams a 7-0 lead with a 24-yard scoring run but he finished with just 76 yards on 20 carries after a strong start and he has not topped 85 yards in a game all season. Goff said he thought things went relatively well in his debut. "Felt good," he said. "We're obviously disappointed with the result there at the end and how things turned out, and how we felt through the whole game and how in control we were."

                * Brees has thrown for 300 yards four times on the season and surpassed 400 yards twice to lead the league with 3,277 yards passing and 26 touchdowns. The Saints lost running back Mark Ingram to a head injury in the third quarter and their leading rusher with 575 yards and two touchdowns on the ground remains in concussion protocol. Ranked last in the league the past two seasons, New Orleans' defense has improved steadily this year and it ranks a respectable 18th in the NFL since Week 4, allowing 354.7 yards a game, and it is No. 1 in red-zone defense since Week 7.

                LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Saints as 7-point home favorites and that line was quickly bet up to 7.5 and has held firm all week. The total opened at 45.5 and remains fine with bettors having not moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

                TRENDS:

                * Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
                * Saints are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
                * Under is 10-1 in Rams last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
                * Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games overall.
                * Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

                Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6, 45)

                * Russell Wilson battled injuries in October and went three straight games without a touchdown - passing or rushing - to close out the month. Since the calendar turned, Wilson returned to health and has recorded six passing TDs without an interception in his last three games while adding rushing and receiving scores. "I think the quick bursts that he showed when he had to make the decision was really the confidence he demonstrated he's got," coach Pete Carroll told reporters in regard to Wilson's health. "I couldn't be more fired up about that. That's when we're playing ball the way we know how to play. It's a big factor for us."

                * Winston steadily is making his way into the conversation about elite quarterbacks in the NFL, and he stretched his streak to 26 straight games to begin his career with at least one rushing or passing TD when he hit rookie tight end Alan Cross with a fourth-quarter TD pass in last week's 19-17 win at Kansas City. "Jameis was out of sight today," coach Dirk Koetter told reporters after the triumph. "That's as good of quarterback play of however many years I've been in the league now. Jameis - he was awesome all day. Jameis played a great game." Winston is forming a strong connection with wide receiver Mike Evans, who is third in the NFL with 916 receiving yards and second with eight TD catches.

                LINE HISTORY: The lined with the Seahawks 5-point road favorites and that line has expanded to 6. The total opened at 44.5 and has inched up to 45 on Monday and remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.

                TRENDS:

                * Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
                * Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
                * Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games in November.
                * Over is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 home games.* Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay.

                Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders (-3, 49.5)

                * Carolina's defense took a major hit in last week's victory as linebacker Luke Kuechly entered the league's concussion protocol while cornerback Leonard Johnson (chest) and defensive end Mario Addison (foot) also exited with injuries. Kuechly recorded 14 tackles against the Saints and has registered a league-high 693 since 2012. Center Ryan Kalil (shoulder) was a casualty on the offensive line and, along with Addison, is questionable to face Oakland.

                * Two key members of the offense were not full participants in Wednesday's practice as receiver Michael Crabtree and running back Latavius Murray were limited due to ankle injuries. Carr threw his first interception since Oct. 16 on the first play of the second half on Monday, ending his streak of 170 consecutive passes without a pick. The third-year quarterback has been outstanding in his last three meetings with teams from the NFC South, throwing for 1,131 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 111.6 rating.

                LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened up as 3.5-home favorites and the was quickly driven down to 3 and that number has held since Wednesday. The total opened a 48 and was up to 50, before fading back to 49.5. Check out the complete line history here.

                TRENDS:

                * Panthers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
                * Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
                * Over is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
                * Over is 4-0 in Raiders last 4 games overall.
                * Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

                New England Patriots at New York Jets (7.5, 45.5)

                * Star tight end Rob Gronkowski was limited in practice Wednesday after missing last week's win over the 49ers with a chest injury, but Brady threw scoring passes to four different receivers. Among them was rookie Malcolm Mitchell, a fourth-round draft pick out of Georgia who had four receptions for 98 yards to surpass his total yardage from his first six career games combined. Running back LeGarrette Blount ran for 124 yards on 19 carries -his fourth 100-yard performance of the season - while Dion Lewis rushed for 23 yards on five carries and added three catches in his season debut. New England registered five sacks a week ago, including one by newcomer Kyle Van Noy.

                * Star tight end Rob Gronkowski was limited in practice Wednesday after missing last week's win over the 49ers with a chest injury, but Brady threw scoring passes to four different receivers. Among them was rookie Malcolm Mitchell, a fourth-round draft pick out of Georgia who had four receptions for 98 yards to surpass his total yardage from his first six career games combined. Running back LeGarrette Blount ran for 124 yards on 19 carries -his fourth 100-yard performance of the season - while Dion Lewis rushed for 23 yards on five carries and added three catches in his season debut. New England registered five sacks a week ago, including one by newcomer Kyle Van Noy.

                LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened the week as 8.5-road favorites in this AFC East battle and that number faded as low as 7, before settling at 7.5. The total opened at 47 and has been inching down all week to 45.5 as of Saturday morning. Check out the complete line history here.

                TRENDS:

                * Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
                * Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
                * Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
                * Over is 4-1 in Jets last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
                * Over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings.
                * Patriots are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
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                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                • NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 12

                  The Titans' robust rush attack has been as advertised, but the team also ranks ninth in passing yards.

                  Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 45.5)

                  Bills' rag-tag receiving corps vs. Jaguars' suffocating secondary

                  The Bills are a healthy favorite in this Week 12 encounter, and with good reason: Buffalo has forged its way to a .500 record despite dealing with major injury woes, particularly within its receiving corps. Couple that with a Jacksonville offense that has bumbled its way to a likely high draft next spring, and it's easy to see why the Bills are expected to win comfortably. But the Jaguars have a significant advantage in one area that could result in this game being closer than expected.

                  With Sammy Watkins returning to practice but still a major question mark to suit up this week, quarterback Tyrod Taylor is left with middling options Robert Woods, Marqise Goodwin and recently resurrected Percy Harvin. Woods (75.8) is the only one of the three with a decent Pro Football Focus Grade - and even if you throw in tight end Charles Clay (63.1), there isn't much room for optimism when it comes to the Buffalo passing game.

                  Things look even worse when you consider the potency of the Jacksonville pass defense, which has been the team's biggest strength through 10 mostly terrible games. Two of the team's three primary cornerbacks boast grades above 80, while linebackers Telvin Smith (79.5) and Paul Posluszny (85.0) have also been sensational. Add FS Tashaun Gipson (76.6) and SS Jonathan Cyprien (86.1) into the equation, and it could be a long, challenging day for Taylor and the Bills' receiving corps.

                  Daily fantasy fade: QB Tyrod Taylor


                  New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (+7, 44.5)


                  Giants' improved pass rush vs. Browns' non-existent protection

                  The Giants spent tens of millions of dollars in the offseason looking to improve a defense that underwhelmed significantly last season. And after New York opened the season with one of the worst pash-rushing units in the league, fans were understandably concerned. But the Giants have looked impressive at getting to the quarterback over the last month-plus, and should be able to continue their hot streak against the Browns' "pass protection".

                  The New York secondary has been solid at defending the pass; the Giants are one of only eight teams entering Week 12 with double-digit interceptions. But it has been its ability to harass the quarterback that has played a major role in the team reeling off five consecutive victories. New York has racked up 14 of its 18 sacks over the course of the winning streak, recording multiple sacks in all five games. And while the Giants still have the worst road sack rate in the NFL, that should change this week.

                  In addition to being the only remaining winless team in the league, the Browns rank near the bottom of the NFL in too many categories to count. Among them, Cleveland has the worst sack rate at 8.7 percent; Indianapolis is the only other team to exceed eight percent. That mark climbs to an absurd 13.9 percent over the last three games - and that downward trend, combined with the Giants' vastly improved pass rush, bodes very poorly for whoever starts under center on Sunday.

                  Daily fantasy watch: Giants D/ST


                  Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (+3.5, 43)


                  Titans' elite offensive line vs. Bears' underwhelming defense

                  By now, you're well aware of how the Tennessee Titans have shamed all of the analysts who suggested in the preseason that the team's only way of producing offense would be through its "exotic smashmouth" strategy. Yes, the Titans' robust rush attack has been as advertised, but the team also ranks ninth in passing yards - a credit to quarterback Marcus Mariota, sure, but also to one of the best and most underrated offensive lines in football.

                  The Tennessee O-line boasts an impressive group of players that have performed at a high level for most of the season. Four of the five starting linemen boast Pro Football Focus ratings of 82 or higher, led by LT Taylor Lewan (87.3) and rookie R Jack Conklin (86.2). Their efforts have gone a long way in keeping Mariota upright; he has been sacked just 18 times this season, the seventh-lowest total in the league. TE Delanie Walker (81.8) has also been sensational in pass protection.

                  The Bears' defense has been better than advertised, but is still likely to be overmatched this weekend. Chicago has hauled in just five interceptions and, while ranking an admirable 10th in sacks (24), faces serious mismatches at both outside linebacker positions and at two of the three cornerback slots. Add in a pitiful 43.9 PFF grade for starting RE Jonathan Bullard, and Mariota should once again have clean pockets and plenty of time to pick the opposing defense apart.

                  Daily fantasy watch: QB Marcus Mariota


                  Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 45)


                  Seahawks ToP problems vs. Buccaneers' brilliant ball control

                  The Seahawks are one of the few NFC teams that has looked mostly good this season, a testament to its perpetually solid defense and in-season improvements - both from a health and talent perspective - from QB Russell Wilson. But while the Seahawks go into their Week 12 showdown with the Buccaneers as a healthy favorite, Tampa Bay has been one of the better clock control teams in the league - something Seattle certainly can't say.

                  The Buccaneers enter Sunday ranked fifth in the NFL in average time of possession at 31:26, a rate that climbs to 32:59 over the previous three games. And as with the majority of teams who boast strong ToP numbers, Tampa Bay has done it by extending drives better than most of the league. The Buccaneers are tied for seventh in average first downs per game (22.3), and their third-down conversion percentage (45.07) is also good for seventh overall.

                  The Seahawks aren't that close in any of the three categories listed above. Seattle ranks 26th in the league at 28:30 per game, a rate that dips to 26:20 over the previous three games. The Seahawks' average first downs per contest (18.5, T-27th) and third-down conversion rate (37.3 percent, 21st) also pale in comparison. All that extra possession time for Tampa Bay could mean a much closer game - or even a Buccaneers victory.

                  Daily fantasy watch: WR Mike Evans
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                  • NFL Underdogs: Week 12 pointspread picks and predictions

                    By ANDREW CALEY

                    Andrew Caley is thankful for a chance to redeem himself after a 0-for Week 11, and his first play is the underdog Cardinals.

                    If you’re been reading this column this season, you know by now I’m a proud Canadian, which definitely has its perks.

                    This is one of those weeks with one of those perks because it is American Thanksgiving. Yes, I am thankful for American Thanksgiving.

                    For those who don’t know, Canadian Thanksgiving is the second Monday of October instead of the fourth Thursday in November and while I enjoy being with family and friends more than anything on this holiday, our turkey day doesn’t revolve around the NFL like it does for those of you state side. Luckily for me, my family is a football family and we now celebrate both.

                    First of all, what’s not to love about a Thursday in November with 12 straight hours of NFL football? Not to bash the CFL (the Grey Cup is tomorrow, go RedBlacks), but it’s just not the same. We play touch football when we’re off work or done school and the majority of the family participates in a surprisingly competitive fantasy football league, so there's plenty of yelling at the television no matter who's playing.

                    So in honor of our love for the great American game, my family started having American Thanksgiving feasts to go along with it. We don't half-ass it either. It's turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes and pie. The whole shebang. What’s better than Thanksgiving in October? Thanksgiving in October and November. That’s what.

                    I’m also thankful for having the type of job I do. One that, holiday or not, I get to be doing something I love, watching and writing about football. I'm thankful I get to write this column and I’m thankful I get to redeem myself after a pitiful 0-3 ATS Week 11.

                    So with it being a Thanksgiving themed week, it seems appropriate to start off this week’s underdog column talking about a bird, a red bird, to be precise.

                    I am still clinging on to hope the Arizona Cardinals will at some point look like the team they've been for the past two seasons. There's just too much talent at the skill positions and the defense can still be dominant.

                    Carson Palmer has regressed this season, completing just 62.1 percent of his passes with just 13 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. But if he will ever break out it should be this week. He gets to go up against an Atlanta Falcons pass defense that ranks dead last, giving up 283 yards per game.

                    But what I really believe in is the Cardinals defense. They will have their hands full with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and the Falcons third-ranked offense, but it’s a task this defense can handle. They rank first in total and passing defense and get Tyrann Mathieu back this week.

                    Six-points are just too many for a defense this good.

                    Pick: Cardinals +6


                    San Francisco 49ers (+7.5) at Miami Dolphins


                    On paper, bettors should be thankful to back the Dolphins in this matchup. Miami just needs to feed the ball to Jay Ajayi against the league’s worst rush defense and they’ll easily cover.

                    But that won’t be the case.

                    The Dolphins head into this game with a make-shift offensive line. Miami will be without starting center Mike Pouncey (out long-term, hip) and will likely will be without left tackle Branden Albert (wrist surgery last week) and Laremy Tunsil (shoulder). They ended up with Sam Young playing left tackle last week, and he was signed off the street a little more than a month ago.

                    A fully healthy Carlos Hyde has a great matchup against a Dolphins run defense that allows the third most rushing yards per game this season.

                    Additionally, Colin Kaepernick seems to be finding his groove, throwing for five touchdowns and just one interception in the last three games. He has also rushed for 260 yards at a clip of 7.2 yards per clip and a touchdown since becoming the Niners' starter once again.

                    Pick: 49ers +7.5


                    Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) at Denver Broncos


                    This game could go a long way in determining the champion of the AFC West and both the Chiefs and Broncos have a lot of the same issues.

                    Their passing offenses are less than inspiring and both are dealing with running back injuries. We all know by now how good the Broncos’ defense is, but the Chiefs are no joke either.

                    While they rank 25th in total yards allowed, they clamp down in the red zone and rank eighth in points per game, allowing just 18.9. Plus, now that Justin Houston is back, the Chiefs defense has a completely different attitude.

                    Simply put, I think this game is won by a late field goal.

                    Pick: Chiefs +3.5


                    Last Week: 0-3 ATS
                    Season: 18-14-1 ATS (56 percent)
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                    • NFL Week 12 lines that make you go hmmm...

                      The Seahawks opened as low as -4.5 on the road in Tampa Bay. That's just one of the lines making our Las Vegas oddsmaker go "hmmm..." in Week 12.

                      Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 41)


                      We’re not quite sure why the line is so low. We like the home favorites and recommend to take this one as early as you can. I made this line closer to -6 to -6.5, largely based on two factors.

                      First, the Bengals are playing awful football right now, (1-4 on the road). And second, they’re suffering a slew of injuries that will make this highly improbable that they can handle a physical team like the Ravens.

                      I also think Baltimore will have something to prove after its loss to Dallas this past weekend. Between these two teams, who both suffered losses in week 11, it seems more likely that Baltimore will bounce back with a nice game than an undermanned and underperforming Cincinnati team suddenly finding success on the road.

                      Despite Cincinnati’s woes, it is just one game in the loss column behind first place Baltimore. We fully expect Baltimore to know the significance of this game and follow the pattern of beating its divisional foe, as the Ravens have done in their past two home games. This is a classic example of sticking with the winners and playing against the losers. Get his one early and enjoy the leftover turkey.

                      Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 44.5)

                      We always like to ride a good streak and we have a good one with Seattle. This line opened offshore at -4.5 and doesn’t appear it will stop at its current level. We definitely recommend to take this as early as you can expect this line to rise come Sunday.

                      Tampa Bay surprised against Kansas City this past week but we are banking that its home record speaks for itself. Despite their first win against lowly Chicago, the Bucs have suffered losses with margins of five, 20, six and 15 at home to lesser teams than Seattle. Their two wins the past two weeks probably caused the oddsmakers to push a lower number from the get-go, but wise money came quick on the road favorites and it will keep coming through Sunday.

                      The Seahawks are 6-1-1 in their past eight games and are rolling on offense (88 points in their last three). They’ll aim to be the physical force defensively that they’re best known for. There are only four teams in the NFC who have given up more points than Tampa Bay and we expect Seattle to exploit that come game time. Take the road favorite, take them early and eat something else besides turkey now that the weekend is almost over.
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                      • NFL
                        Armadillo's Write-Up

                        Week 12

                        Sunday's games


                        Chargers (4-6) @ Texans (6-4)— Short week for Houston after Monday night game in Mexico City, while Chargers are coming off a bye. Texans are 5-0 at home, 3-0-1 as home favorites; Bolts are 2-5 in last seven post-bye games, scoring 11.5 pts/game in last four; they’re 1-4 on road this year, with four of five games decided by 4 or less points, or in OT. Chargers are 3-2 as road underdogs, 2-1 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Houston is 3-1-1 in games with spread of 3 or less. San Diego won four of last five series games, winning 27-20/29-23 here; average total in last four series games, 50.8. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 11-3 vs spread, AFC South home teams are 7-7. Over is 8-2 in San Diego games this year, 5-2 in Texans’ last seven games.

                        Titans (5-6) @ Bears (2-8)— Chicago QB Cutler hurt shoulder Sunday, may be out for year; check status- former Eagle/Cardinal/USC Barkley is backup QB (65 PA in five games, no starts). Bears were outscored 32-0 in second half of last two games, 59-14 in last four; they’re 2-2 at home, beating rivals Lions/Vikings- they’re 3-4 vs spread as an underdog. Tennessee has their bye next week, could be little tired; they’re 2-3 on road, 3-1-1 as road favorite last four years (0-0 this year). Home side lost last four series games; Titans are 3-2 here, but last visit was in ’08. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread in non-divisional road games. NFC North teams are 6-6 in non-divisional home teams. Over is 7-1 in last eight Tennessee games, 1-4 in Bears’ last five. Underdogs covered all four Chicago home games this season.

                        Jaguars (2-8) @ Bills (5-5)— Both teams have fired their OC during season; Jax is 0-3 since they canned their OC, losing by 5-3-7 points, turning ball over nine times (-7) on 35 drives. Buffalo lost three of last four games, is 2-2 SU at home, 1-1 as home favorites; they haven’t allowed a 2nd half TD in five of last seven games. Jaguars lost last five games, are 2-3 as road underdogs, losing true road games by 24-14-5 points, with win at Chicago 17-16, after they trailed 13-0 in 4th quarter. Bills are 2-2 vs spread as favorites this year. NFC East non-divisional home teams are 7-5 vs spread; AFC South road teams are 5-7. Over is 6-4 in Jaguar games, 7-2 in last nine Buffalo games. NFL-wide, favorites of 7+ points are 20-15-1 vs spread this season.

                        Bengals (3-6-1) @ Ravens (5-5)— Cincy is 3-6-1 despite being favored in 7 of 10 games this year; they’re 1-4-1 in last six games, losing last two by total of 5 points- they lost last four true road games, by 8-14-1-18. Bengals’ only road win this year was 23-22 in Swamp Stadium over Jets back in Week 1. Baltimore won its last two home games; they’re 4-1 when allowing 17 or less points, 1-4 when they allow more. Ravens are 3-2 at home this year, 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 6-7-21, losses to Raiders/Redskins. Bengals won last five series games, with 3 of 5 by 7+ points; Bengals won 23-16/28-24 in last two visits here. Home favorites are 4-0 vs spread in AFC North games this season. Under is 3-1 in Bengals’ last four road games, 5-1 in last six Raven games.

                        Cardinals (4-5-1) @ Falcons (6-4)— Arizona coach Arians was hospitalized Monday with chest pains; coaching is stressful. Home side won last eight series games; Redbirds lost last seven visits here, with last win here in ’93. Cardinals turned ball over 8 times (-5) in last three games; they’re 0-2 on artificial turf, allowing 33-30 points to Bills/Vikings. Atlanta is 2-3 in last five games after a 4-1 start; they’re 2-2 at home, 1-3 as home favorite, with home wins by 1-15 points- average total in Falcon home games, 66.3 (over 4-0). All four Arizona road games also went over. Atlanta is 6-1 in last seven post-bye games (5-2 vs spread). Redbirds are 1-3 on road, with only win at SF (0-2 as road underdog)— all four road games went over total. Over is 8-2 in Atlanta games. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 3-9 vs spread, 3-4 on road. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 2-7 vs spread.

                        49ers (1-9) @ Dolphins (6-4)— Miami won/covered last five games after 1-4 start, rallying from down 10-0 with 5:00 to go last week in LA- they trailed three of last four games at half. Dolphins are 4-1 at home, 1-4 as home favorites, with home wins by 6-15-3-4 points. Opponents are 17 of 59 on 3rd down during Miami’s win streak. Fish are +8 in turnovers the last five games. 49ers lost last nine games (1-8 vs spread); they’re 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 19-19-29-3 points (cover was at Arizona). SF was outscored 75-26 in 2nd half of last five games. Niners won five of last seven series games; they’re 2-3 in five visits here, with last one in ’08. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread, 3-3 at home. NFC West underdogs are 3-9, 3-4 on road. Over is 6-3 in Niners’ last nine games.

                        Rams (4-6) @ Saints (4-6)— New Orleans scored 25+ points in all four of its wins; they’re 0-4 when they score less than 25. First road start for rookie QB Goff; at least it won’t rain like it did in his debut LW. Rams have two offensive TDs on their last 43 drives; they’re 3-2 SU on road, 4-0 as road underdogs, with road losses 28-0 at SF, 31-28 in Detroit. New Orleans had three extra days to prep after Thursday game last week; Saints lost last two games by total of 5 points. NO is 2-3 SU at home, with underdog covering all five games- Saints are 0-3 as home faves. Rams won four of last six series games; last one was in ’13. LA is 4-2 in last six visits here (last one in ’10). NFC West non-divisional dogs are 3-9, 3-4 on road; NFC South favorites are 4-9, 2-7 at home. Last four Ram games, four of Saints’ last five games stayed under total.

                        Giants (7-3) @ Browns (0-11)— Cleveland is awful and tired; their bye is next week. New York has 7 wins by total of 27 points; none by more than seven points. Giants are 1-2 in true road games, with only win 20-19 in Dallas- they beat the Rams 17-10 in London, on a neutral field. Cleveland goes back to McCown at QB this week; they’ve been outscored 70-17 in second half of their last four games. Browns are 1-3-1 as home underdogs, with losses on Lake Erie by 5-20-3-25-15 points. Giants won three of four series games; all four were decided by 14+ points- teams split two meetings here, with last one in ‘08. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 9-3 vs spread, 2-1 on road; AFC North underdogs are 2-9, 0-3 at home. Under is 5-2 in last seven Giant games, 3-0 in Browns’ last three games.

                        Seahawks (7-2-1) @ Buccaneers (5-5)— Seattle is on a roll, winning last three games by 6-7-11 points; they’re 2-2-1 on road, with wins 27-17 at Jets, 31-24 in Foxboro. Seahawks are +9 in turnovers over their last seven games, after being -5 in first three. Tampa Bay won its last two games; they’ve allowed 27+ points in all five losses- they’re 5-0 allowing less than 27. Bucs are 1-4 at home with only win over Chicago; their home losses are by 5-20-6-15 points. Tampa is 4-3 vs spread as an underdog this year, 1-2 at home. These teams came into NFL together in 1976. Bucs won three of last four series games; seven of last nine series games stayed under. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 5-6 vs spread, 2-2 on road; NFC South underdogs are 9-2, 2-1 at home.

                        Panthers (4-6) @ Raiders (8-2)— Short week for Oakland after win in Mexico City Monday; they’ve won/covered last four games, scoring 30 pts/game. Raiders are 2-2 at home this year, 1-2 as home favorites, with wins by 3-10 in Coliseum— they lost to Falcons/Chiefs. Panthers are 3-1 since their bye, with last three games all decided by exactly 3 points; Carolina is 1-3 on road, with losses by 1-15-3 points, and win in LA- this is first time they’ve been an underdog this season. Carolina is 3-2 in series games; four of five games were decided by 11+ points; they split two visits here, with last trip here in ‘08. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-7 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 7-1. Over is 8-2 in Oakland games; last three Panther games stayed under.

                        Chiefs (7-3) @ Broncos (7-3)— If playoffs started today, this would be AFC Wild Card game. Chiefs had 5-game win streak snapped at home LW; their last three games were all decided by 5 or less points. KC is 3-2 on road, 1-2 as road underdogs; favorites covered four of their five road games. Broncos won/covered four of five home games, with lone loss to Falcons; they’re 3-1 as home favorites. Denver won seven of last eight series games, winning three of last four played here, with wins by 35-10-7 points (Chiefs won 29-13 here LY), NFL-wide, home favorites are 15-16-1 vs spread in divisional games this season. Under is 8-1 in Chiefs’ last nine games, 5-2 in Denver’s last seven. Kansas City is +17 in turnovers in its seven wins; they were -1/-2/-1 in losses- they have only one win this year with negative turnover ratio.

                        Patriots (8-2) @ Jets (3-7)— New England is 8-2 in last ten series games, with both losses in OT; average total in last five series games, 48.2. Patriots are 3-2 in last five visits here; they won/covered all four road games since Brady came back, winning by 20-11-16-13 points, but Gronkowski won’t play here, Brady didn’t practice Wednesday. Fitzpatrick is back at QB for Jets after Petty played in 9-6 home loss to Rams; Jets are 2-5 vs spread in last seven post-bye games. NY is 1-3 at home, with win over Ravens; losses were by 1-10-3 points. Jets’ last three games were all decided by 4 or less points- they’re 2-5 as an underdog, 1-1 at home. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 11-5 vs spread this year in divisional games. Under is 4-1 in Patriot road games, 5-1 in Jets’ last six games.


                        Monday's game
                        Packers (4-6) @ Eagles (5-5)— Philly won/covered all four of its home games, winning by 14-31-11-9 points, but they’re 2-5 overall since a 3-0 start, averaging less than six yards/pass attempt in five of last six games. Green Bay lost its last four games, allowing 153 points, worst 4-game stretch for Packer defense since 1958 (year before Lombardi arrived). Pack lost its last four road games, by 3-1-22-18 points; this is also their third straight road game, a historically soft spot for NFL teams. Packers won four of last five series games, with last meeting a 53-20 beatdown at Lambeau in 2014- they won last two visits here, both in ‘10. NFC North non-divisional road dogs are 5-6 vs spread; NFC East home favorites are 7-2. Under is 4-0 in Eagle games this year; last four Green Bay games went over total.
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                        • NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:

                          10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
                          11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
                          11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100
                          11/07/2016 0-1-1 0.00% -550
                          11/10/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
                          11/13/2016 9-12-0 42.86% -2100
                          11/14/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
                          1/17/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
                          11/20/2016 12-12-0 50.00% -600
                          11/21/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
                          11/24/2016 3-3-0 50.00% -150

                          WLT PCT UNITS

                          ATS Picks 91-112-6 44.83% -16100

                          O/U Picks 90-112-5 44.55% -16600

                          Triple Plays:..... 38 - 49 - 2

                          NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
                          NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
                          TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
                          NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY..............,..0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )
                          INTERCONFERENCE GOD.............,...0 - 1,,,,,( DENVER UPSET SAINTS )
                          NFC GOM................................,....0 - 1.....( PHILLY UPENDS ATLANTA )
                          NFC NORTH GOM...........................0 - 1......( TAMPA BAY STOMPS THE BEARS)
                          NFC WEST BLOW OUT.....................0 - 1 .... ( ARIZONA BARELY BEATS THE 9ERS)
                          SUNDAY NIGHT INTERCONFERENCE GOY....0 - 1 ( SEATTLE UPSETS NEW ENGLAND )
                          SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR 1 - 0 .....( WELL OVER THE 49 PTS....55 PTS )
                          THURS DOG OF THE DAY ................1 - 0 ( WASHINGTON + 6 COVERS DALLAS 26 - 31 )
                          THURS TOTAL OF THE DAY............... 1 -0 ( WASH/DALLAS OVER 52 26 - 31 )
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                          • SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 27

                            GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

                            LA at NO 01:00 PM

                            LA +7.5 *****

                            U 44.5 *****


                            ARI at ATL 01:00 PM

                            ARI +3.5

                            O 49.5 *****

                            NYG at CLE 01:00 PM

                            CLE +6.5

                            O 45.5 ***** ( TOTAL OF THE DAY )

                            JAC at BUF 01:00 PM

                            JAC +8.5

                            U 44.0

                            CIN at BAL 01:00 PM

                            BAL -3.5

                            O 41.0 *****

                            TEN at CHI 01:00 PM

                            CHI +6.0 ***** ( DOG OF THE DAY )

                            O 42.0 ******


                            SD at HOU 01:00 PM

                            SD -2.5

                            O 46.0

                            SF at MIA 01:00 PM

                            SF +7.0 *****

                            O 45.5 *****
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                            • SEA at TB 04:05 PM

                              TB +5.0 *****

                              U 45.5 *****


                              CAR at OAK 04:25 PM

                              CAR +3.5

                              O 49.0 *****

                              NE at NYJ 04:25 PM

                              NYJ +8.0 *****

                              O 47.5 *****


                              KC at DEN 08:30 PM

                              KC +3.5 ***** ( SUNDAY NIGHT DOG OF THE DAY )

                              U 39.5
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                              • Sunday’s six-pack


                                Six most popular picks in Week 12 of the Westgate Super Contest


                                — Tennessee Titans, -4.5 (514)- W
                                — Atlanta Falcons, -4 (480)- W
                                — Washington Redskins +7 (405)— W
                                — Baltimore Ravens -4 (387)- W
                                — Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 (380) W
                                — Oakland Raiders -3 (379)- W


                                Season record: 27-43-2

                                Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday


                                Chargers 21,Texans 13— First home loss for Texans; Chargers are now 2-4 on road. Houston turned ball over four times (-3); teams who were -2 or worse in turnovers this week are 0-5 this week, 7-59 for the season.


                                Titans 27, Bears 21— Tennessee is 6-6 and heads into its bye week half a game behind the Texans in a lame AFC South. Barkley threw for 316 yards in his first NFL start, converted 9-17 on third down, but also threw two picks and Bears fell to 2-9. Over is 8-1 in Titans’ last nine games.


                                Bills 28, Jaguars 21— Jax has now lost six games in a row, last four all by 7 or less points. Bills are 6-5 but winning a Wild Card in AFC is an uphill climb. Over is 8-2 in last ten Buffalo games. I’m guessing Jaguars are changing coaches after the season; curious to see if they hire Tom Coughlin, who is approaching 70 but would be better than some guys who have HC jobs.


                                Ravens 19, Bengals 14— Justin Tucker nailed three 50+-yard FG’s, all in the first half. Cincy is 1-5-1 in its last seven games, losing last five true road games; I am not a fan of promoting from within when hiring coordinators, which Cincinnati has done a lot recently, losing three coordinators to HC jobs the last three years. Go out and find new blood, new ideas. Bengals’ last four games (0-3-1) were decided by a total of 7 points. Under is 6-1 in last seven Baltimore games.


                                Falcons 38, Cardinals 19— Hope coach Arians is alright after a medical scare earlier in week; his team isn’t alright, losing three of last four games. Arizona was outscored 41-16 in second half of last three games. Falcons scored five TDs on nine drives, with two TD drives of less than 50 yards. Over is 9-2 in Atlanta games this season.


                                Dolphins 31, 49ers 24— Miami won its sixth game in row, will be tied for second Wild Card with loser of KC-Denver game. Dolphins led 31-14 with 8:00 left but Kaepernick led comeback which fell a couple yards short as time expired. 49ers have lost ten games in a row, with over 7-3 in those games. Miami is +10 in turnovers during its winning streak.


                                Saints 49, Rams 21— This game was personal between Sean Payton/Gregg Williams, who won a Super Bowl together in New Orleans. Saints threw a pass with 2:30 left, up 49-21. They’ll be another day for that stuff. NFC West underdogs are 4-11 vs spread outside their division this season.


                                Jeff Fisher is in his fifth year coaching the Rams: he makes $7M a year. His teams have been 7-8-1/7-9/6-10/7-9 and now this 4-7 disaster (they still have games at both New England/Seattle). If I was paying someone $7M a year to coach, I’d expect better results and most of all, I wouldn’t be very freakin’ happy when my team quit on the field, the way the Rams did in this game.


                                Giants 27, Browns 13— Cleveland is now 1-4-1 as a home underdog; they’ve been outscored 83-24 in second half of their last five games. Giants won their last six games, getting a defensive TD from Pierre-Paul to put game out of reach. If season ended today, Giants would host Washington in NFC Wild Card game. Good news for Cleveland; next week is their bye.


                                Buccaneers 14, Seahawks 5— Just second 14-5 game in NFL history; 49ers-Falcons played one in 1984. Bucs had six sacks, held Seattle to 1-11 on third down- they’ve won three games in a row, allowing total of 32 points. This is same Tampa defense that gave up 37 points to the Rams in Week 3. Everyone in NFC West lost today.


                                Raiders 37, Panthers 32— Oakland has won/covered five games in a row; Derek Carr had a dislocated pinky in third quarter, when Carolina had ball four times, scored four TDs, but they also had PAT blocked and went 0-2 on 2-point conversions. Only two defensive TDs of day were scored by Giants/Raiders. Newton was 3-12 passing for 18 yards in first half, 11-17 for 226 yards in second haldf, including an 88-yard TD pass to Ted Ginn Jr. Over is now 9-2 in Raider games this season.


                                Patriots 22, Jets 17— New England is 4-0 (3-1 vs spread) with Brady on road; Jets are now 1-4 at home. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 13-8 vs spread this season. Jets’ last four games were all decided by 5 or less points. under is 6-1 in New York’s last seven games.
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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