The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 10
November 9, 2016


THURSDAY, NOV. 10

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE (NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Browns have covered 5 of last 6 at Baltimore. Hue Jackson teams at Oakland (2011) and Cleveland TY are “over” 12-4 last 16 games.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Browns, based on “totals” and series trends.

SUNDAY, NOV. 13

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 0-3 vs. line away as home team is 7-0-1 vs. spread in Houston games to date. But Houston 4-0 SU last 4 in series. Jags “over” 16-9 last 25.
Tech Edge: Slight to Jags and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at CAROLINA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Chiefs 3 SU wins in row and two straight covers on road, and now 7-2 vs. spread last 9 on reg.-season road. KC “under” 7-2 last nine in reg.-season games.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at NEW ORLEANS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints have now covered five in a row, four as dog, and Brees 5-0 as dog TY, 11-3 since LY. Saints “over” 26-15 last 40 since late 2013. Denver 8-3-1 vs. line away since last season.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
LOS ANGELES at NY JETS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Fisher on 19-8-1 “under” stretch. Jets on 5-1 spread run at Met Life.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Jets, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs continue “over” binge now 8-1 after Tampa Bay slugfest. Falcs 5-0 vs. line away this season, though Birds 3-0 vs. spread at Linc.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Falcs, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MINNESOTA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Vikes have now lost last 3 after Zimmer had covered 19 of 22. Skins 9-3-1 last 13 vs. spread in reg.-season games, also “over” 11-2 last 13.
Tech Edge: Skins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
GREEN BAY at TENNESSEE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Note six straight “overs” by Titans and 6-2 “over” TY, now “over” 11-2 last 13. Tenn just 1-4 vs. line as host TY and 5-15-1 last 21 vs. spread at Nashville. Pack 0-2 as road chalk TY.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears 0-4 vs. line away TY but were 5-2-1 in role LY including a win at TB. Bears now “under” 6-2-1 last nine since late LY but Bucs “over” 8-3 last 11 as host. TB 0-4 vs. line at home TY and Bucs no covers last six at Raymond James.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bears, based on Bucs home woes.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at SAN DIEGO (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bolts 3-1 vs. line as host TY but 5-12 against points at Qualcomm since mid 2014. Bolts “over” 8-2 last nine since late 2015. Dolphins 2-0-1 vs. line last three TY.
Tech Edge: Dolphins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Niners 0-7 SU and vs. line since opening win over Rams. Also “over” 6-1 last seven and Chip Kelly teams 11-3 “over” since late LY with Philly and SF. Cards 4-1 SU and vs. line last five in series.
Tech Edge: "Over" and Titans, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at PITTSBURGH (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Dallas 7-0-1 vs. spread TY, including 3-0-1 as dog. Steel 10-3-1 vs. line last 14 in reg.-season games at Heinz Field, and 3-0 vs. line with Big Ben in lineup at home TY. Steel “under” 8-2 last nine since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Slight to Steel and “under,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at NEW ENGLAND (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Russell Wilson 9-3-1 as reg.-season dog since 2012, and Seahawks 5-2 vs. spread last seven reg.-season road. Hawks also “under” 8-3-1 last 11 since late LY. Belichick has won and covered four straight since Brady’s return and 8-2-3 vs. spread last 13 at home.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

MONDAY, NOV. 14

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at NY GIANTS (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Cincy only 2-7-1 vs. line last ten reg.-season games since late LY, and no covers last six away from Paul Brown Stadium. G-Men 3-0-1 vs. line last three TY.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on recent trends.

[StarDust Bum]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 10
November 9, 2016


Last week's sizable underdogs all came to play for the most part, as the six of them combined went 4-2 ATS and 2-4 SU. My thoughts on the AFC South road teams leading the charge turned out to be profitable as Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Tennessee went 2-1 ATS and 1-2 SU, with the Indianapolis Colts arguably saving their season and winning outright in Green Bay for the first time since 1997.

It was a strong first half in all three phases that allowed the Colts to jump out to an early lead and hold on down the stretch and this week they've got a bye to rest, regroup and get ready to attack the second half of the year.

This week the list of NFL underdogs getting 4 or more points is much smaller as there are only three teams that qualify (not counting Cleveland on TNF), and one of those franchises makes their first, and likely only appearance on this list this season.

Sportsbook.ag Week 10 Underdogs that Qualify

Miami Dolphins (+4); ML (+170)
San Francisco 49ers (+13.5); ML (+700)
Seattle Seahawks (+7.5); ML (+300)

San Francisco is the biggest dog on this list by a longshot as they head to Arizona to take on the Cardinals and it looks like it'll be another outright defeat for the Bay area bunch. San Francisco has yet to win since their Week 1 shutout of the Rams and have been outscored by a 128-61 margin in their three road games. All three of those road losses came by at least 19 points so there is no way a 49ers ML bet this week is worth much consideration.

Miami is another winless road team as they take their act to San Diego after four straight home games. The Dolphins have been playing much better since they inserted RB Jay Ajayi into the starting lineup, have won three straight overall, and put up at least 27 points in all three of those victories.

They've definitely got a shot against a Chargers team who's playing much better themselves and with the loser of this game having a severe uphill climb to claim one of the AFC's wildcard spots this year, we could see a playoff-like atmosphere here. But going on the road for the first time in over a month, (the Dolphins also had a bye week mixed into their four-game homestand) is a little worrisome in a game that could go either way.

That leaves the Seattle Seahawks on the list as they were the team I alluded too in regards to making their first and last appearance on this list. Seattle heads to Foxboro for a Super Bowl 49 rematch with the Patriots.

New England has been running over everyone since Tom Brady returned and will no doubt receive plenty of support this week against the spread despite the Seahawks being arguably the best team the Patriots have faced in awhile. There are no early body clock concerns for Seattle with this being the SNF matchup, but Seattle does have one less day to prepare having closed out Week 9 with a MNF win over Buffalo.

Seattle's 5-2-1 SU record could be called into question too given the league office having now admitted to missing two significant penalties on Seattle (one on MNF vs. Buffalo, the other vs. Atlanta a few weeks back). Had those calls been made, Seattle could be entering this game with a much different record and it's likely why this spread has crept past a touchdown. It's also tough trying to get in the way of the steamrolling train that is the Patriots and while the ML with a winning team like Seattle is luring at 3-1, I'm not ready to go against New England outright at home just yet.

So, with little to choose from, it looks like the only real sizable underdog that warrants a ML play this week is the Dolphins at +170. The fact that this is their first road game in a long time makes it tough though and we could see one of those weeks where one or two of these teams cover the spread, but all of them get a loss in the standings.

[StarDust Bum]

Browns aim for 1st win
November 8, 2016


NFL Week 10 TNF Betting Preview
Cleveland Browns (0-9 SU; 2-7 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (4-4 SU; 3-5 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Baltimore (-10); Total Set at 45

The winless Cleveland Browns are hoping a short week can reverse their fortunes and get rid of that goose egg in the win column in Week 10. Cleveland has lost nine straight games to open up the year and are on the road in Baltimore as double digit dogs, looking to avenge a 25-20 loss to the Ravens earlier this year. Things have looked bleak all year for the Browns while the rest of the sports teams in the city play for championships, and while bettors have done quite well going against this awful Browns team all year, that may not be the case this week.

Looking at the schedule, this is a tough spot for the Ravens to come out and win by multiple scores as this game is on a short week and sandwiched between two teams with Super Bowl aspirations in 2016. Baltimore looked good – at least on defense – in beating Pittsburgh on Sunday, but they've also got a big game with Dallas on deck. This game with the winless Browns on TNF could qualify as one of those “trap” games people like to talk about, and asking the Ravens to win by 11+ points may be a bit too steep.

Cleveland on the other hand is doing everything they can to get that first W, but all these losses have begun to wear the players done. Multiple Browns commented on how all these defeats are really wearing on them mentally after Dallas beat up on them 35-10 last week and motivation will be something to keep in mind when handicapping Cleveland games the rest of the way. Obviously the motivation to get that first win and do it against a division rival should be rather high this week, especially when things don't get much easier the rest of the way for Cleveland.

Furthermore, the Browns have developed a bit of a pattern during their nine defeats this year that suggests this week's game will be one of their better ones. After almost every double digit loss by Cleveland this year they've bounced back with a narrow defeat. They've had four losses by six points or less and three of those four came after losing by double digits the week prior. There aren't really a whole lot of positives you can talk about with Cleveland this year, but from a betting perspective this week, that definitely qualifies as one.

Secondly, division rematch games across the entire NFL have worked out quite well ATS for the team that fell in the first meeting. Last week we saw Atlanta bring home the money on TNF after failing to cover and losing outright to Tampa in their first meeting, and the week prior to that saw both Denver and New England avenge earlier outright losses with SU and ATS wins against San Diego and Buffalo respectively. That's a perfect 3-0 ATS mark for teams that failed to cover in the first meeting and that's precisely the spot the Browns are in this week.

Finally, the Browns organization have had some success in Baltimore in the past as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips here, and the road team in these rivalry games has gone 12-3-1 ATS the past 16. Cleveland is also 5-1 ATS in their last six appearances on TNF, and with the Ravens sporting a 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine TNF games, things could be looking up for Cleveland this week. Baltimore is also on a 3-11-1 ATS run at home and a 3-10-1 ATS run vs teams with a losing record.

I still wouldn't spit in the wind and consider a Browns ML bet in this spot, but 10 points looks like a few too many for a Baltimore team that is coming off a war vs. Pittsburgh and has scored just 19.3 points per game this season. It may be one of those wagers you've got to make and then plug your nose afterwards, but Cleveland should keep this game within this number.

Best Bet: Take Cleveland +10

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Browns at Ravens
November 10, 2016

Cleveland at Baltimore (-8, 43.5), 8:25 pm ET, CBS/NFLN

Understand that this will probably be one of the lowest-rated games of the NFL season, the latest example that the NFL is dealing with diminished popularity. Someone really thought It would be a good idea to put the Browns in prime time, so we get this. One thing it isn’t advantageous to be is an elitist, so don’t take this in that vein, but the NFL will stop making these mistakes next season. Matchups like these, that instantly remind you that there are other things to do on Thursday night besides being a slave to the NFL, should stop popping up in prime time next season.
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As it is, an unattractive bout between AFC Central foes presents an opportunity to shun the league – have you seen Concussion on cable? – or embrace a matchup that present the Ravens with an opportunity to continue being relevant in the AFC. The alternative would be watching the Browns win for the first time, which Hue Jackson merits but won’t necessarily get this week. Jackson has talked about the need for airing it out more after being defeated by Dallas at home in a game that would have been closer had refs called pass interference penalties in the end zone, so Cleveland might be especially aggressive here. As far as Baltimore is concerned, an upset of Pittsburgh allowed the team to snap a four-game losing streak and puts it back on track to contend for a playoff spot. Joe Flacco left Sunday’s game with a knee brace issue but is otherwise fine, while rookie QB Cody Kessler will continue to start for Cleveland ahead of veteran Josh McCown.

Baltimore Ravens
Season win total: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC North: 9/2 to 9/2
Odds to win AFC: 15/1 to 25/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1 to 50/1

Cleveland Browns
Season win total: 4.5 (Over -150, Under +130)
Odds to win AFC North: 2000/1 to 2000/1
Odds to win AFC: 100/1 to off board
Odds to win Super Bowl: 200/1 to off board

LINE MOVEMENT

Baltimore rescued all of its future bettors with its upset of Pittsburgh but was still faded by the WestgateLV SuperBook. Meanwhile, wagers on the winless Browns have come off the board altogether since they can no longer win a division or make the playoffs. As far as this matchup is concerned, most books set the opening number at Ravens -9.5, but that lofty number is now available from 7.5-to-10, coming in on the low side at WestgateLV SuperBook and as high at -10 at the Mirage. The total is set at 44.5 to 45.

INJURY CONCERNS

The two most important players on the Browns offense, top tackle Joe Thomas (knee) and Terrelle Pryor (hamstring) will be out there for the Browns. Defensive back Jordan Taylor is the only player who participated last week that won't play.
Favored Baltimore is more banged up, listing tackle Marshal Yanda (shoulder) as 'doubtful.' The Ravens defense played without Elvis Dumervil and Shareece Wright last week and won't be available again.

RECENT MEETINGS (Baltimore 4-1 SU, 2-2-1 ATS last five; OVER 4-1)

9/18/16 Baltimore 25-20 at Cleveland (BAL -4.5, 41.5)
11/30/15 Baltimore 33-27 at Cleveland (CLE -6, 41)
9/20/15 Cleveland 37-33 at Baltimore (BAL -6, 42)
12/28/14 Baltimore 20-10 vs. Cleveland (BAL -14, 40)
9/21/14 Baltimore 23-21 at Cleveland (BAL -1.5, 43)

PROPS

Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride that Siemian TD prop going over. The Chargers have surrendered nine passing touchdowns, allowing four of the five QBs they've faced to throw for multiple TDs.

Cody Kessler completions 22: (-110 o/u)
Terrance West TD: (+100 yes/-120 under)
Joe Flacco passing yards 263.5: (-110 o/u)
Terrelle Pryor receiving yards 63.5: (-110 o/u)
Joe Flacco TD passes 1.5: (-130 over, +110 under)
Cody Kessler TD Passes + Interceptions 2: (EVEN over, -120 under)
Total combined sacks 4.5: (-120 over, +100 under)
First score of game will be: (-180 TD, +160 other)
Total points: Ravens 27.5, Browns 17.5 (-110 o/u)

RAVENS AS A HOME FAVORITE

The Ravens are 1-2 in this situation this seasonand were 0-3-1 ATS last year. Included in those results is that 33-30 home loss last Oct.11.

BROWNS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG

The Browns are obviously winless (1-3 ATS) this season and were atrocious in this role in ’15, going 1-7 straight up (3-5 ATS). The lone victory came against the Ravens.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, November 10

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Thursday Night Football betting preview: Browns at Ravens
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Ravens' quarterback Joe Flacco has more interceptions (seven) than TD passes (six) and a paltry 76.0 passer rating.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10, 45)

The Cleveland Browns will be looking to avoid moving one step closer to a dubious league record when they visit the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night. The Browns not only are attempting to avoid matching the worst start in franchise history, but also end the chances of joining the Detroit Lions as the only team to finish 0-16.

"We're not going to go 0-16. That's for a fact," Cleveland linebacker Chris Kirksey said following Sunday's 35-10 home drubbing by Dallas. "We're not going to be winless". One of the reasons the Browns are in this predicament is a 25-20 loss to Baltimore in Week 2, when they blew a 20-2 first-quarter lead. The Ravens were mired in a slide of their own heading into their bye, but snapped a four-game skid with a 21-14 win over visiting Pittsburgh on Sunday. That victory moved Baltimore back to the .500 mark and, more importantly, into a tie with the Steelers atop the AFC North.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Baltimore Ravens opened as big 10.5-point home favorite over the winless Cleveland Browns and by Wednesday night that number was down to -10. The total opened at 45.5 and came down slightly to 45. View the complete line history here.

WEATHER: Conditions are expected to be clear with temperatures at around 50 degrees at kickoff. It's not expected to rain (POP 1-2 percent) and winds will be light (5 mph) and not a factor on the field.

INJURIES:

Browns - WR R. Louis (probable, hamstring), OL J. Thomas (probable, knee), DL J. Meder (probable, knee), DL C. Nassib (probable, eye), QB C. Kessler (probable, leg), WR T. Pryor Sr. (probable, hamstring), LB N. Orchard (questionable, ankle), DB J. Haden (questionable, groin), DB J. Taylor (out, groin), WR J. Gordon (out indefinitely, suspension), QB R. Griffin III (questionable, shoulder).

Ravens - RB K. Dixon (probable, chest), CB S. Wright (questionable, hamstring), TE C. Gilmore (questionable, thigh), LB K. Correa (questionable, thigh), G M. Yanda (doubtful, shoulder), LB E. Dumervil (out indefinitely, foot).

ABOUT THE BROWNS (0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS, 6-3 O/U): Cleveland has had a revolving door at quarterback, losing starter Robert Griffin III in the season opener and watching Josh McCown suffer a broken collarbone against the Ravens. While McCown returned to the lineup in a narrow loss to the New York Jets in Week 8, coach Hue Jackson went back to Cody Kessler on Sunday and will stick with the rookie Thursday despite a nondescript effort against the Cowboys. The Browns managed only 45 yards rushing versus Dallas, including four on six carries by Isaiah Crowell, who ran for a season-high 133 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. The Browns are yielding 421.7 yards and 30.3 points per game, each ranking 31st in the league.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS, 3-4-1 O/U): Baltimore's defense came up big in the win over bitter rival Pittsburgh, holding the Steelers to 277 total yards and 36 on the ground to build a 21-0 lead in the third quarter. There remain plenty of concerns over the offense, which produced one touchdown -- a 95-yard scoring pass to wideout Mike Wallace -- and also labored on the ground, rushing for 50 yards on 29 carries. Baltimore ranks 28th in the league with 81.8 yards rushing per game and is averaging 2.2 yards per carry over the past three contests -- a full two yards less than in the first five games. Quarterback Joe Flacco has more interceptions (seven) than TD passes (six) and a paltry 76.0 passer rating.

TRENDS:

* Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC North.
* Ravens are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 6-0 in Browns last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 home games.
* Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The bettors are backing the Browns with 63 percent of the wagers on the road underdogs. As for the total, 51 percent of bettors are taking the Over.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:

10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100
11/07/2016 0-1-1 0.00% -550

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 78-94-6 45.35% -12700

O/U Picks 74-100-5 42.53% -18000

Triple Plays:..... 23 - 33 - 2

NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )


THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CLE at BAL 08:25 PM

CLE +7.5*****

U 44.0 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Ravens keep Browns winless, 28-7
November 10, 2016

BALTIMORE (AP) The Baltimore Ravens gained sole possession of first place in the AFC North at the expense of the winless Cleveland Browns, who reached a historic low point in franchise history.

Joe Flacco threw three touchdown passes, and the Ravens used a strong second half to notch a 28-7 victory Thursday night.

Baltimore trailed at halftime before gaining control during a third quarter in which Flacco went 10 for 12 with two scores.

The Ravens (5-4) have won two in a row following a four-game losing streak. Baltimore is the only team in the division above .500.

Cleveland (0-10) has opened a season with 10 consecutive losses for the first time since joining the NFL in 1950. The Browns have dropped 11 straight on the road since winning in Baltimore in October 2015.

The defeat left Cleveland's all-time record at 461-461-10. The Browns have never been below .500.

Down 7-6 at halftime, the Ravens moved 64 yards on their first possession of the third quarter to take a 13-7 lead. Flacco connected with five different receivers on the drive, closing with a 4-yard touchdown pass to Darren Waller.

Browns coach Hue Jackson then opted to insert Josh McCown at quarterback after watching starter Cody Kessler go 10 for 17 for 94 yards. McCown's second pass was intercepted, giving Baltimore the ball at the Cleveland 40 with a chance to break the game open.

The Ravens moved to the 15 before Flacco heaved an ill-advised throw into the end zone that was picked off by Joe Haden.

Baltimore's next drive, however, was run on a short field. After a 32-yard punt gave the Ravens the ball at the Cleveland 43, Flacco threw an 11-yard touchdown pass to Steve Smith, and a 2-point conversion made it 21-7.

A 27-yard touchdown throw to Breshad Perriman sealed it with 6:21 remaining and marked the 10th straight game in which the Browns yielded at least 25 points.

Flacco went 30 for 41 for 296 yards and two interceptions.

McCown went 6 for 13 for 59 yards. He was picked off twice and lost a fumble when hit by Terrell Suggs, who was playing with a torn biceps.

''Adrenaline. Adrenaline was working tonight,'' Suggs said.

Jackson said Kessler will start the Browns' next game, at home against Pittsburgh on Nov. 20.

The first time these teams played this season, the Ravens had to rally from 20 points down to pull out for a 25-20 win. Baltimore needed another comeback in this one, though the deficit wasn't nearly as imposing.

After their first three series produced two punts and an interception , the Ravens gained possession at the Cleveland 48 following a punt and used a 25-yard field goal to take a 3-0 lead.

Kessler followed with a 25-yard touchdown pass to tight end Seth DeValve, and at that point the Browns looked very little like a team that hadn't won a game in 11 months.

NOT EVEN CLOSE

It was the first time this season that the Ravens had a game decided by more than eight points. It was their most lopsided victory since a 20-10 win over Cleveland on Dec. 28, 2014.

QUOTABLE

Browns: ''It's fair to say we didn't expect to be here, but it's also fair to say we expect to grow from this,'' McCown said.

Ravens: ''Sizz is a once-in-a-generation type player,'' Baltimore safety Eric Weddle said about Suggs, who had a sack and a forced fumble.

SMITH MOVES UP

Smith had five catches for 60 yards and moved into eighth place on the NFL career list with 14,349 yards receiving. He passed Reggie Wayne, and now is in pursuit of No. 7 Marvin Harrison (14,580).

INJURIES

Browns: CB Jamar Taylor (groin) was inactive.

Ravens: LG Alex Lewis injured his right ankle in the third quarter, was carted off the field and did not return. X-rays were negative. ... C Jeremy Zuttah injured his right ankle on Smith's TD.

UP NEXT

Browns: Host the Steelers, the first meeting of the season between the AFC North rivals.

Ravens: Travel to Dallas on Nov. 20 to face the Cowboys, a team they're 4-0 against since the series began in 2000.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s six-pack


My six favorite Bill Murray movies:


6) Quick Change– Saw this on my first date with my future ex-wife.


5) St Vincent– Any time a guy takes a little kid he is babysitting to the racetrack, the movie has a chance.


4) Caddyshack– This was more of a Rodney/Chevy Chase movie.


3) Stripes– The late Harold Rams should’ve acted in more movies.


2) Meatballs– Morty, the guy who ran the summer camp, later wound up as a judge on Law and Order.


1) Lost in Translation– Underrated movie with Scarlett Johansson.


Friday’s List of 13: Bottom 5, Top 8 in the NFL


32) Browns— Cleveland is 0-10, but not the only team that has trailed all its games in 4th quarter. 5-4 Lions have trailed all nine of their games in 4th quarter- they easily could be 0-9, or 8-1.


31) 49ers— Allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of their last seven games, which doesn’t happen very often.


30) Jaguars— Ran ball better last week than they have all season but teams that turn ball over four times almost never win. Host a Houston team this week that is 0-3 on the road.


29) Bears— They should start playing better with Cutler back at QB and Bucs-Titans-49ers on schedule in next month. For what it is worth, Jay Cutler grew up in a town called Santa Claus, IN; wonder what the high school’s mascot is?


28) Rams— I let this slide Monday because there were so many other things to be annoyed about, but Rams’ only TD against the Panthers came on a 4th-and-goal play from the 10 in last 0:40 when LA trailed 13-3. Going for it on 4th-and-goal from the 10, when you had an easy FG and you needed 10 points, was coaching malpractice.


Just because the play worked doesn’t make it a good decision; in a lot of ways, this ticked me off more than losing the damn game.


8) Broncos— Wade Phillips feels better, may be back on sidelines for this week’s game; if his defense doesn’t create opportunities for the Denver offense, it’ll be a long second half of the season— Broncos’ offense isn’t very good.


7) Giants— One of three teams (Cards, Jags) that haven’t scored a point yet on their first drive of the game. Wentz threw INTs on Eagles’ first two drives, so Giants got TDs on drives of 31-30 yards on their 2nd/3rd drives of the game, but when the coach is also the playcaller, shouldn’t they do better on their first drive?


6) Seahawks— Long trip east to Foxboro on a short week Sunday nite; they play Patriots for first time since their Super Bowl loss to New England. Seahawks’ rushing attempts in last three games: 19-17-12- they need more balance on offense. They also need a more mobile Wilson.


5) Chiefs— Have NFL’s best record (17-3) in their last 20 games, but only one of those wins was a playoff game. Alex Smith is back at QB this week, which should improve their play in red zone.


4) Falcons— 6-3 with bye week in Week 11, so they should be well-rested for stretch run, with little bit of a soft schedule, other than the KC game. Will Kyle Shanahan be a head coach elsewhere in ’17?


3) Raiders— Last time they were in the playoffs was 2002, when they lost Super Bowl to Tampa Bay. They’ll be there this year. First game after their bye is against the Texans on a Monday night in Mexico City.


2) Cowboys— If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it; at 7-1, no reason for Dallas to change QBs; they seem to be set there for the next 10-12 years. Interesting game in Pittsburgh this week, against the banged-up Steelers.


1— Patriots— After playing Seattle this week, their next three games are against 49ers-Jets-Rams; they’ll have to guard against boredom, playing those three stiffs in a row.


I’m not kidding; closest game they’ve had since Brady came back is 11 points- you need to play in close games during season to tighten up for the playoffs, when games will be close.

[StarDust Bum]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 10 NFL lines are going to move

Early betting favors the Giants, so NY backers might want to pounce before heavy action out of the Northeast moves the line.

Game to bet on now

Cincinnati at New York Giants (-2.5)

Three straight losses (Washington, Minnesota, Green Bay) resulted in some analysts leaving the streaky Giants for road kill early last month, but things are peachy again in Gotham after three consecutive victories. And now New York (5-3 and two games behind the Cowboys in the NFC East) begins a stretch of three very winnable games against sub-.500 competition, starting with the enigmatic Bengals at home. The Bengals have four losses against what passes as the iron of the league in today’s NFL (New England, Dallas, Pittsburgh and Denver), but could have their hands full on Sunday. Early betting favors the Giants, so NY backers might want to pounce before heavy action out of the Northeast moves the line to 3.

Game to wait on

Los Angeles at New York Jets (-2.5)

It’s a little too early to throw in the towel, but Jets fans have a right to ask just what the heck is going on with their team. Matt Forte was supposed to power a strong running game that made up for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s QB deficiencies, and the defense was supposed to be rock solid. Instead, the Jets are 3-6 SU and have given up the most points (and scored the fewest) in the AFC East. More bad news – the Jets have two games left against the Patriots. Miami and Buffalo have “catapulted” the Jets by playing .500 ball. NY is not sure about Fitzpatrick this weekend, but reportedly he’ll play if his ailing knee responds to treatment. Bettors might want to hang on a bit, because backup Bryce Petty has taken only a few snaps in his career.

Total to watch

San Francisco at Arizona (48)

Over players need to be careful here. Arizona has struggled to find any kind of consistent offense this season, but somehow the Cardinals have put together the league’s No. 1 defense (statistically, anyway). San Francisco’s offense, meanwhile, too often seems like it’s moving uphill. The 49ers’ best shot in this one is to establish a ground attack and shorten the game, then try to make a few plays in the fourth quarter. The total has already been bet down from 49, and could go even a bit lower.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 10

Thurs – Nov. 10

Cleveland at Baltimore, 8:25 PM ET
Cleveland: 5-15 ATS as an underdog
Baltimore: 16-5 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog


Sun – Nov. 13

Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET
Houston: 8-1 ATS as a favorite
Jacksonville: 7-19 ATS after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game

Kansas City at Carolina, 1:00 PM ET
Kansas City: 11-24 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7
Carolina: 14-5 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Denver at New Orleans, 1:00 PM ET
Denver: 17-4 OVER after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game
New Orleans: 4-14 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7

Los Angeles at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles: 7-22 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
New York: 8-2 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Atlanta at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM ET
Atlanta: 37-57 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Philadelphia: 47-29 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Minnesota at Washington, 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota: 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Washington: 6-17 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game

Green Bay at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Green Bay: 32-16 ATS in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Tennessee: 1-9 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games

Chicago at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago: 1-5 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Tampa Bay: 6-0 ATS after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored

Miami at San Diego, 4:05 PM ET
Miami: 17-5 ATS in road games off in 2 straight division games
San Diego: 4-16 ATS in home games after allowing 35 points or more last game

San Francisco at Arizona, 4:25 PM ET
San Francisco: 0-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Arizona: 23-10 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game

Dallas at Pittsburgh, 4:25 PM ET
Dallas: 6-17 ATS in road games after a win by 21 or more points
Pittsburgh: 15-2 ATS in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite

Seattle at New England, 8:30 PM ET
Seattle: 19-27 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
New England: 15-6 ATS off 1 or more straight overs


Mon – Nov. 14

Cincinnati at NY Giants, 8:30 PM ET
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
New York: 62-39 UNDER off a home win

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 10 hovering on the horizon……

— Cleveland is 6-15-1 in its last 22 games as an underdog.

— Dallas Cowboys won/covered their last seven games.

— Washington covered nine of its last 12 games.

— Buccaneers are 3-9 vs spread in their last 12 games.

— Jaguars are 6-13-1 in last 20 games as a home underdog.

— Cincinnati is 21-10-3 vs NFC teams; Giants are 5-1 vs the AFC.

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NFL Week 10 lines that make you go hmmm...

Dallas is at Pittsburgh in Week 10, getting 2.5 points from sportsbooks. Find out why this number is making this Vegas oddsmaker go "hmmm..."

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10, 45)

The total in this game caught my eye for this AFC North rivalry on Thursday Night Football. As a 10-point favorite, one may assume the game will be controlled by the dominating team. Baltimore showed quite well versus Pittsburgh this past week, particularly its defense scheme. I don’t see how the Ravens won’t continue that trend against Cleveland.

They’re averaging less than 40 points per game and with the abbreviated work week, we don’t really see the teams trying to run up the score in this intra-divisional contest. Cleveland doesn’t have the firepower to suddenly chalk up too many points against a premier defensive unit. I can’t envision this game producing six touchdowns and a field goal just to tie the total. Any scoreless quarter will make it that much tougher to achieve.

Thursday nights haven’t produced the kind of excitement we usually feel for weekday games. At this point, we see both teams thinking about the extended time off after the game is over than playing full-tilt football. Go with the Under and watch your favorite hockey team instead on another channel.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1, 42.5)

On the surface, this game looks like a first place team facing a last place team at near pick ‘em – an easy play on the small favorite. But there are some red flags with that assumption that has us going with the home dog in this one.

First, Houston has had a favorable schedule to this point and it’s been all or nothing when it comes to where it plays. At 5-3, all five wins came at home and all three losses on the road. In those three losses, Houston has been outscored 85-22. Conversely, Jacksonville has played a much tougher schedule and has been competitive in its home losses to Green Bay and Baltimore and took a tough loss from Oakland besides the one lone win over Indianapolis.

No one outside of WR DeAndre Hopkins scares me offensively for Houston. And although, the Jaguars are missing that big-play threat, the team has enough results to read between the lines in this game. I also feel the Jaguars will have the incentive on their side. One win here against the division leader and that tightens things up significantly. It’s the perfect storm for the underdogs to prevail this weekend.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 48)

The Dolphins head into this game off two good wins against divisional rivals Buffalo and New York. And after a disastrous start, the Chargers are winning with some regularity and have played a tougher schedule than Miami. I made the Chargers closer to -6 which makes this an attractive take on the home favorite.

The Dolphins just completed a four-game home stretch with solid results but have not fared well on the road this season. Their losses to Seattle (second game of the season when they weren’t playing well) and a Brady-less Patriots team was followed by a collapse in Cincinnati in their last road game.

San Diego has found its rhythm with three wins in the past four games against the likes of Denver, Atlanta, and Tennessee. The Bolts stand 3-1 at home and they’ve gone toe-to-toe with the most explosive offenses in the league in both wins and losses.

This one won’t be a runaway by any means but the angles of success and failure favor the Chargers. San Diego also can look ahead to a weekend off after this game’s completion with their bye week coming up so they can really let it all hang out in this one. The incentive is with the home team here and we like that angle the best.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 50)

I’m not quite sure what the stronger play is: taking Dallas or taking the Under in this game? All of this focuses on the Steelers lack of scoring the past three games (14, 15 and 16 points) and the terrific defense by Dallas this season. I made this closer to pick with a total of 45 to 46 at best. I’m more inclined to take the Under here as both teams can bring the defense and I find it hard that this game will see more than seven touchdowns and a field goal in the allotted possessions.

Pittsburgh has only gone over 50 twice this season and has been Under in six of its last seven games. Dallas has been over 50 once (and it took overtime to do it) so far this season. Any possessions ending in field goals will take that many more possessions and scoring results to push this Over the total. Not that it can’t be done, but the way the teams are playing at this time, 50 points seems like an awful high total to achieve Sunday.

A big game for both teams, the hype for such a contest usually will bring out the best in defensive play early. That will dictate the rest of the game’s flow. If it’s a close contest throughout, expect time management to devour a ton of clock with field goals being the premium score. I’m not sure how this one got out there so high for the opener but I just don’t see it happening. Stick with the Under.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Thursday's game

Cleveland (0-9) @ Baltimore (4-4)- Ravens (-6.5) trailed 20-0 in Cleveland in Week 2, rallied to win 25-20; they’re 15-2 in last 17 series games, 7-1 in last eight played here- Browns lost 33-30 in OT here LY. Baltimore ended 4-game skid with win over Steelers LW, are atop NFC North despite 4-4 record; they are 1-6-1 in last eight games as a home favorite, 1-2 this year. Winless Browns have been outscored 148-51 in second half of games; they’re 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 19-6-11-2-14 points. Ravens have only four offensive TDs in last four games; their only score LW was on 95-yard pass in 1st quarter. Browns allowed 610 yards on ground in last three games. Over is 6-2 in last eight Cleveland games, 3-1 in Ravens’ last four. Home side is 4-0 vs spread in AFC North divisional games.


Sunday's games

Houston (5-3) @ Jacksonville (2-6)— Texans are 0-3 on road, 5-0 at home, losing on foreign soil by combined score of 84-22, albeit vs Pats-Denver-Vikings, all winning teams; they’ve had only two takeaways in last six games (-8). Home side is 7-0-1 vs spread in their games. Jaguars ran ball for 205 yards LW in Arrowhead under their new OC, after averaging 73.9 rushing yards/game under old OC. Jax was -4 in turnovers LW or they might’ve upset Chiefs (outgained KC 449-231)— they’re 0-3 at home, losing by 4-2-17 points. Jaguars have zero takeaways in their last four games (-10). Texans are 9-7-1 under O’Brien in games with spread of 3 or less points; Jaguars are 6-12 under Bradley in such games, 2-2 this year. Houston is 9-2 in last 11 series games, winning last four, three by 11+ points- they won four of last five visits here. Texans won four of last five post-bye games.

Kansas City (6-2) @ Carolina (3-5)— Panthers are 2-0 since bye week, allowing only 83 rushing yards on 27 carries; they’re 12-29 on 3rd down last two games, after being 4-19 in two games before that. KC struggled in red zone LW (16 points on 4 drives) wit backup QB Foles playing, but is 4-0 since bye; they’re 4-8 in last 12 games as a home favorite, 1-3 this year, winning home games by 6-21-6-5 points. Chiefs are 3-2 in series; home side won three of last four meetings. Teams split two meetings here, with last visit in ’08. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 2-5 vs spread. AFC West road underdogs are 6-3. Six of last seven KC games stayed under total; over is 5-3 in Carolina games. Chiefs’ last three games were all decided by 6 or less points; three of last four Carolina games were decided by exactly three points.

Denver (6-3) @ New Orleans (4-4)— Saints rallied to 4-4 after an 0-3 start; they’re 2-2 at home, with dogs covering all four games (average total, 67.5). NO has 15 TDs on 42 drives at home; unless Denver comes up with turnovers and creates short field for their defense, tough to imagine Siemian matching points with Brees here. Broncos are 2-3 in last five games after a 6-0 start; they had only 90 rushing yards in last two games combined. In last three games, Denver is 11-37 on third down (29.7%), after being 29-77 (37.7%) in first six games- they won only previous game on artificial turf, in Week 3 at Cincy. Broncos’ average starting field position LW was their own 19, worst in NFL- they are 8-2 vs New Orleans, winning last four meetings, three by 15+ points. NFL teams are 16-9 vs spread this season in their pre-bye games.

Rams (3-5) @ Jets (3-6)— Two teams with QB issues. LA lost its last four games, scoring one TD on its last 22 drives; Rams are 4-12-1 vs spread in last 17 games where number was 3 or less points. Not sure if Fitzpatrick (knee) or Petty (would be 1st start) gets nod at QB for Jets, who scored 26 pts/game the last three weeks. New York scored to go ahead LW in Miami with under 6:00 left, looked ready to win 3rd game in row, but Dolphins ran kick back for game-winning TD. Neither team has led at halftime since Week 2. Jets won last two meetings 47-3/27-13; Rams are 4-2 vs Jets in last six visits here, but last visit was 2008. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 2-7 vs spread, 2-3 on road. AFC East favorites are 6-2, 3-2 at home. Under is 5-3 in Rams’ games, 4-1 in Jets’ last five.

Falcons (6-3) @ Eagles (4-4)— Atlanta is 4-1 on road, with only road loss 26-24 in Seattle- they scored nine TDs on 17 drives in last two games. Philly lost four of last five games after 3-0 start; Wentz threw picks on first two drives LW, as Giants led 14-0 5:07 into game- their late rally fell just short. Eagles are 3-0 at home, winning by 14-31-11 points; they’ve allowed only two TDs on 31 drives at home this year (under 3-0). Atlanta won last three series games, by 4-13-2 points; they’ve lost six of last seven visits here, but won last one, in 2012. Over is 7-1 in Falcon games, 4-1 in last five Philly games. NFL teams are 16-9 vs spread this season in their pre-bye games. NFC East non-divisional home teams are 7-2 vs spread; NFC South road teams are 8-2. Atlanta has 11 TD plays of 20+ plays this season, most in the league.

Vikings (5-3) @ Redskins (4-3-1)— Minnesota is 0-3 since its bye, its OC quit, its starting OT’s are hurt; Vikings scored 4 TD’s on 29 drives in last three games, scoring 26 points on last ten red zone drives- they were outscored 34-9 in first half last three games, with no TDs. Minnesota is +12 in turnovers for season but has only one takeaway in last couple games. Washington is 2-2 at home, with all four games going over total; average total in those games is 50.5. Redskins are 8-8 vs spread under Gruden, in games with spread of 3 or less points; Vikings are 14-6 in such games under Zimmer. NFL teams coming off a bye this year are 9-5-2 vs spread this season, but Washington is 1-7 in last eight post-bye games, losing last three by 15-20-17 points. Zimmer/Gruden spent time together as coordinators in Cincinnati.

Packers (4-4) @ Titans (4-5)— Tennessee has allowed seven TDs on offense/special teams this year, two more than anyone else in NFL (Jets). Titans are 2-3 at home, with last three home games going over; they scored 32.3 pts/game the last three weeks but lost two of three. Green Bay scored 58 points in last two games but lost both of them, getting drilled at home by Colts LW. Packers are 1-2 on road this year, with only win in opener at Jax (27-23, -4.5); Pack is 7-6 in last 13 games as road favorites, 0-2 this year. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-8 vs spread, 1-2 on road; AFC South underdogs are 5-8, 1-3 at home. Tennessee is 4-12-1 vs spread in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points; Packers are 6-10 in last 16. Last six Tennessee games went over total; over is 2-1 in Green Bay games.

Bears (2-6) @ Buccaneers (3-5)— Tampa Bay got whacked at home LW, is now 17-43 in its last 60 home games, 0-4 this year. Bucs allowed 34.3 pts/game at home this year, gave up 140 rushing yards/game their last four games. Bears are 0-4 as road underdogs this year, losing on foreign soil by 9-14-6-16 points. Chicago is 7-3 in last ten post-bye games, but lost last two, by 55-14/23-20 scores. Bears won five of last six series games, winning last three by 6-8-5 points; Bears won three of last four visits here. Five of last six series games were decided by 6 or less points. NFC South non-divisional home teams are 3-6 vs spread this season; NFC North road teams are 5-6. Last three Tampa Bay games went over total; four of last five Chicago games stayed under. Bucs were outscored in second half in 6 of last 7 games, 27-14/23-14 in last two.

Dolphins (4-4) @ Chargers (4-5)— Miami won its last three games, running ball for 205 yds/game with no turnovers (+4); Fish were -7 in turnovers their first five games- this is their first road game since Sept 29. Dolphins are 0-3 on road this year, losing by 2-7-15 points; they’re 5-9 in last 14 games as a road underdog, 1-2 this year. Chargers won three of last four games, covered four of last five; they converted 21-41 third down plays in last three games. SD is 12-16 in last 28 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year. Home side won last six series games; Miami lost last three visits here, by 10-10-16 points. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-5 vs spread; AFC East road underdogs are 3-5. Five of last six San Diego games went over the total.

49ers (1-7) @ Cardinals (3-4-1)— Arizona (-3.5) won first meeting this year 33-21 in Santa Clara, with first two TDs coming on drives of 21-14 yards. Redbirds won four of last five series games, winning 23-14/47-7 in last two played here- they’re 2-2-1 SU at home this year, 2-3 as a home favorite, with only wins 40-7/28-3 over Bucs/Jets. 49ers lost last seven games, allowing 33+ points in six of them; they’re 0-3 as a road underdog this year, losing away games by 19-19-29 points. Niners allowed 100+-yard rusher in each of last seven games, good news for Arizona RB Johnson’s fantasy owners. Cardinals are 2-4 in last six post-bye games, but were a dog in five of those six games. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 13-13-1 vs spread. Six of 49ers’ last seven games went over total.

Cowboys (7-1) @ Steelers (4-4)— Dallas won/covered its last seven games, scoring 30.5 pts/game in last four; Cowboys are 4-0 on road, with last three of those games staying under total. Dallas ran ball for 186.5 yards/game in last six games, taking heat off rookie QB Prescott, who averaged 8+ yards/pass attempt in five of last seven games. Steelers lost last three games, scoring 15 pts/game; they were outscored 40-18 in first half of those games. Big Ben was rusty in his return in Baltimore LW. Pitt is 3-1 at home, with only loss to Pantriots, when Jones played QB. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 5-3 vs spread; AFC North home teams are 4-6. Romo is healthy again, but why would you take out a QB who is 7-1? Four of last five Cowboy games, six of last seven Steeler games stayed under total.

Seahawks (5-2-1) @ Patriots (7-1)— New England is 4-0 since Brady came back, with all four wins by 11+ points. Seattle scored total of one offensive TD in its tie/losses- they scored 15 in five wins. First meeting since Super Bowl two years ago, game lost by Seahawks when they threw from 1-yard line in last 1:00 and ball was picked. Consider that Carroll was fired so Patriots could hire Belichick- this game has to have extra meaning for him. New England won 47-20/30-6 in last two post-bye games; long trip east on short week for Seahawks after beating Bills in tough Monday night home game. Seahawks won four of last five visits here, but last visit was 12 years ago- last three series games were decided by 4 or less points. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread; NFC West underdogs are 2-7.


Monday's game

Bengals (3-4-1) @ Giants (5-3)— Giants won/covered last three games; they’re 3-1 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, winning by 3-4-5 points, with 29-27 loss to Redskins. Four of NY’s last six TDs came on drives of less than 40 yards or were scored by defense. Bengals lost last three road games, by 8-14-18 points; their only road win was here in Week 1 vs Jets, after they had been 1-12 in Swamp Stadium, 1-3 vs Jets, 0-9 vs Giants. Home side won last nine series games. Cincy is 0-2 as an underdog this year, after being 7-2-1 as road dog last two years- they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight post-bye games. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 2-8. Last three Bengal games went over total, as did three of four Giant home games.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 10

Sunday, November 13

Seattle @ New England

Game 273-274
November 13, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
141.159
New England
140.540
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+7 1/2); Over

Dallas @ Pittsburgh

Game 271-272
November 13, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
134.262
Pittsburgh
140.069
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-2); Under

San Francisco @ Arizona

Game 269-270
November 13, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
124.391
Arizona
130.911
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 6 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 13 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+13 1/2); Over

Miami @ San Diego

Game 267-268
November 13, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
131.357
San Diego
137.197
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 6
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 3 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-3 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Tampa Bay

Game 265-266
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
130.191
Tampa Bay
127.390
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 3
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1
46
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+1); Under

Green Bay @ Tennessee

Game 263-264
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
135.441
Tennessee
125.811
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 9 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 2 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-2 1/2); Over

Minnesota @ Washington

Game 261-262
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
128.926
Washington
135.580
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 6 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-3); Under

Atlanta @ Philadelphia

Game 259-260
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
136.090
Philadelphia
138.693
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 2 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
Pick
50
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
Over

Los Angeles @ NY Jets

Game 257-258
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
129.964
NY Jets
128.823
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 1
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(+2); Under

Denver @ New Orleans

Game 255-256
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
132.710
New Orleans
137.209
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 4 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 2 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-2 1/2); Under

Kansas City @ Carolina

Game 253-254
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
136.593
Carolina
134.084
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 2 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+3); Over

Houston @ Jacksonville

Game 251-252
November 13, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
126.105
Jacksonville
129.862
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 4
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+1 1/2); Under


Monday, November 14

Cincinnati @ NY Giants

Game 275-276
November 14, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
130.585
NY Giants
136.261
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 5 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 2
47
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:

10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100
11/07/2016 0-1-1 0.00% -550
11/10/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 78-95-6 45.09% -13250

O/U Picks 75-100-5 42.86% -17500

Triple Plays:..... 24 - 34 - 2

NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )

[StarDust Bum]

THE SUPER CONTEST - FORMERLY THE HILTON CONTEST

Still the most prestigious handicapping championship in Las Vegas./' We will again list the top five selections weekly (by number of handicappers

Week five

5. Punters -3 417 Handicappers

4 Packers -2 12 521 Handicappers

3. Falcons Pk 538 Handicappers

2. Saints -2 1/2 550 Handicappers

1, Steelers -2 1.2 671 Handicappers

The least popular pick for Super Contest handicappers on Sunday is San Francisco +1 1/2 with only 101 handicappers on the 4f9ers.


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SUNDAY NFL TRENDS

Houston at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET
Houston: 8-1 ATS as a favorite
Jacksonville: 7-19 ATS after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game

Kansas City at Carolina, 1:00 PM ET
Kansas City: 11-24 ATS in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7
Carolina: 14-5 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Denver at New Orleans, 1:00 PM ET
Denver: 17-4 OVER after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game
New Orleans: 4-14 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7

Los Angeles at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles: 7-22 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
New York: 8-2 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Atlanta at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM ET
Atlanta: 37-57 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Philadelphia: 47-29 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Minnesota at Washington, 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota: 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Washington: 6-17 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game

Green Bay at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Green Bay: 32-16 ATS in road games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Tennessee: 1-9 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games

Chicago at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago: 1-5 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Tampa Bay: 6-0 ATS after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored

Miami at San Diego, 4:05 PM ET
Miami: 17-5 ATS in road games off in 2 straight division games
San Diego: 4-16 ATS in home games after allowing 35 points or more last game

San Francisco at Arizona, 4:25 PM ET
San Francisco: 0-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Arizona: 23-10 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game

Dallas at Pittsburgh, 4:25 PM ET
Dallas: 6-17 ATS in road games after a win by 21 or more points
Pittsburgh: 15-2 ATS in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite

Seattle at New England, 8:30 PM ET
Seattle: 19-27 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
New England: 15-6 ATS off 1 or more straight overs