The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 9
November 5, 2016


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Ravens are 10-0 ATS since Sep 30, 2001 on a grass field off a loss where they had at least 10 fewer rushes than their season-to-date average.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Titans are 0-11-1 ATS since Oct 31, 2010 after scoring at least 30 points in a win.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Chargers are 0-7 OU since Nov 25, 2012 after a road game where Philip Rivers threw at least two interceptions.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Vikings are 0-10-1 OU since Oct 01, 1989 as a home favorite off a game as a road favorite where they scored at least seven points less than expected.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Giants are 11-0-1 OU since Nov 12, 2006 at home after a game that went under by at least 14 points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Packers are 19-0 OU vs a non-divisional opponent when they are not more than a two-point dog and they are off a game as a dog of six points or less.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 9
November 5, 2016

You can’t spell overtime without ‘over’ – right? Three games saw an extra session last weekend and not surprisingly, all three went ‘over’ their totals and that helped the high side go 9-4 in Week 8. The scoreboard operator was consistently busy in Week 8 as every team posted at least 10 points and only four were held below 20. Through eight weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ has gone 64-55-1 (54%).

Divisional Action

We’ve got five divisional games on Sunday and when you check out the latest standings you can see that all of these matchups have high stakes. Outside of the Vikings-Lions number, the point-spread on the other four games is less than a field goal and the totals are hovering between 41 and 44 points.

Detroit at Minnesota: From what we’ve seen in the first-half of the season, the NFC North has turned into a low-scoring division with the ‘under’ going 4-1 in the first five divisional games. The oddsmakers are expecting another ugly affair with a total of 41, the lowest on the board. Four of the last five in this series have gone ‘under’ but Minnesota scored 26 and 28 points in the two meetings last season. The Vikings remain a solid ‘under’ bet (5-2) and the Lions enter this contest with two straight ‘under’ tickets due to an offense that has scored 20 and 13 in their last games.

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants: When Chip Kelly was coaching the Eagles, these teams had totals ranging from 49 to 54 and Philadelphia averaged 27.6 PPG in those games. Now that Kelly is gone, we’re staring at a total of 43 this Sunday. Why? The offense in Philadelphia has simmered but the bigger factor is the Eagles scoring defense (16.7), which has improved by more than 10 points. Meanwhile, the Giants offense (19 PPG) remains a complete mystery and their inconsistent production has led to a 5-2 ‘under’ record. Despite those statistics, Philadelphia has seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 on the road and it’s 2-0 to the ‘over’ in divisional games.

N.Y. Jets at Miami: The ‘under’ has cashed in seven of the last 10 encounters in this series but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in the last three and those results were helped by the Jets, who posted 38, 27 and 37 points. New York has posted 55 points in its last two games but only managed 36 in their four previous outings. Coincidentally, Miami has looked sharp offensively in its last two games (58 points) as well but are those numbers misleading? The Dolphins are ranked 18th in total offense, 17th in scoring and most importantly, second to last in third-down conversions. The Jets defense isn’t as good as previous seasons and the Dolphins have a mediocre unit as well. Miami has watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 at home this season while New York has leaned ‘under’ (3-2) on the road.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Tough total to handicap due to the injury situation for Pittsburgh, in particular the status of QB Ben Roethlisberger (questionable). The Steelers scored 15 points when he first got hurt at Miami in Week 6 and just 16 in his absence at home versus New England two weeks ago. Both teams enter this game with rest and for what it’s worth, Pittsburgh has allowed 39 and 35 the last two seasons off the bye and Baltimore has averaged 31 PPG in its last eight games after a bye. The ‘under’ went 2-0 in last year’s regular season meetings.

Denver at Oakland: (See Below)

Fifty Something

Based on our closing consensus numbers, we’ve seen 15 games this season close with a total listed at 50 or higher and the ‘under’ owns a slight 8-7 edge. There are two matchups in Week 9 that have numbers in this neighborhood and they both take place in the late session on Sunday.

New Orleans at San Francisco (52 ½): All of the totals for the Saints have closed in the fifties this season and the ‘over’ has gone 4-3 in those games but two of the ‘under’ tickets took place on the road. San Francisco’s scoring defense is horrendous (31.3 PPG) and this unit actually posted a shutout in Week 1.

Indianapolis at Green Bay (54 ½): This number clearly based on the weak Colts defense (402.5 YPG, 28.8 PPG) because Green Bay’s offense has been very sluggish this season. However, the unit has averaged 30 PPG after its two setbacks this season and they just lost at Atlanta last Sunday. Indy has gone 6-2 to the ‘over’ this season but the ‘under’ tickets came when they total was listed above 50.

Coast-to-Coast

The purpose of this piece and other columns on VI is to inform, entertain and hopefully point you in the right direction to win your wager/s. For those following and playing the “West Coast” total angle this season, congrats! After watching Arizona-Carolina and Oakland-Tampa Bay go ‘over’ their numbers last week, the high side is now 10-0 when a West Coast team plays in the Eastern Time Zone. If you include the records from last season, the ‘over’ is 21-5 (81%) in this situation.

There aren’t any pending matchups in Week 9 but we do have two East Coast clubs playing in the Pacific Time Zone.

Carolina at Los Angeles
Buffalo at Seattle: (MNF - See Below)

As noted last week, the ‘over’ has gone 4-3 in these situations with all three ‘under’ tickets taking place in Arizona.

Under the Lights

Atlanta and Tampa Bay combined for 71 points this past Thursday and the ‘over’ (49 ½), which was steamed down from 51 ½, easily connected. That’s two straight Favorite-Over tickets on the midweek game and something to keep an eye on. Including that result, the ‘under’ has gone 14-10-1 (58%) in primetime games.

Denver at Oakland: First place in the AFC West will be on the line Sunday as the Broncos and Raiders enter with identical 6-2 records. If you believe Oakland’s offense vs. Denver’s defense is a wash, then handicapping this total comes down to the other two units. While Denver isn’t a juggernaut (24.2 PPG) offensively, Oakland’s defense (410 YPG, 25.4 PPG) can’t stop anybody consistently. Based on what we’ve seen from the Raiders, their offense has struggled against quality defensive units in the Titans and (17) and Chiefs (10). Denver is still a little banged up but the total (44) makes you believe that a shootout doesn’t seem likely on Sunday night. The ‘under’ went 2-0 last season and Oakland hasn’t scored more than 17 points in its last six meetings against Denver.

Buffalo at Seattle: The Bills have seen the ‘over’ cash in four straight and six of their eight games this season, which is a little surprising considering Buffalo coach Rex Ryan would likely to prefer mucking it up. Seattle’s offense is struggling this season and it’s been settling for field goals (14) instead of touchdowns (12). QB Russell Wilson said he’s finally healthy and it should be noted that Seattle has gone 9-0 at home versus AFC foes since he arrived while posting 28.2 PPG. The ‘under’ has gone 6-2-1 on MNF this season and that includes five straight tickets to the low side.

Fearless Predictions

After managing to stay in the black for seven weeks, the pendulum finally swung the other way in Week 8 and we posted the bagel ($430). I could provide reasons for the losses but those are often looked at as excuses in the betting world. We’re down 20 cents ($20) on the season as we approach the midway point. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Dallas-Cleveland 49

Best Under: N.Y. Jets-Miami 44

Best Team Total: Under 26 ½ Kansas City

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 40 Dallas-Cleveland
Under 48 ½ Detroit-Minnesota
Under 61 ½ New Orleans-San Francisco

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 9
November 5, 2016

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8

Week 9

1) Denver PK (695)
2) Pittsburgh PK (604)
3) New Orleans -3.5 (575)
4) Carolina -3 (525)
5) Philadelphia +2.5 (474)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 9 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Atlanta (-4) 163 Tampa Bay (+4) 100
Jacksonville (+7) 206 Kansas City (-7) 422
Detroit (+5.5) 351 Minnesota (-5.5) 358
Philadelphia (+2.5) 474 N.Y. Giants (-2.5) 371
Dallas (-7) 406 Cleveland (+7) 404
N.Y. Jets (+3.5) 310 Miami (-3.5) 332
Pittsburgh (PK) 604 Baltimore (PK) 193
New Orleans (-3.5) 575 San Francisco (+3.5) 253
Carolina (-3) 525 Los Angeles (+3) 306
Indianapolis (+7.5) 319 Green Bay (-7.5) 176
Tennessee (+5) 422 San Diego (-5) 329
Denver (PK) 695 Oakland (PK) 334
Buffalo (+6.5) 236 Seattle (-6.5) 296

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 6-14 30%
6 1-3-1 5-19-1 21%
7 3-2 8-21-1 28%
8 3-2 11-23-1 32%

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 9
November 4, 2016


The Las Vegas sports books don't have to worry about the public cash cow this week with the Patriots having a bye. However, large amounts of small money has turned its attention to a few other teams beginning with the Cowboys (-7) at winless Cleveland as Dallas rides a six-game win and cover streak. Fortunately for the books, they've gotten some help to help balance things out.

"We've got three games where we have a sharp and square divide," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews. "Sharps like the Jaguars, Browns and 49ers while the masses are on the Chiefs, Cowboys and Saints."

The line movement on the Saints might not suggest sharp play, but Andrews has been working that game hard since the beginning of the week.

"I opened the Saints -3.5 early in the week when most books were at -3 and we took a big bet on the 49ers, and since then its been all Saints money that's forced us to move higher, but when I got to -4.5 we immediately saw more 49ers action. We're in real good shape in the game, I like where we're sitting. I wish all the games looked like that."

Kansas City is without starting QB Alex Smith and back-up Nick Foles takes over. The Chiefs opened as 9-point home favorites against Jacksonville but it's down to -7 as of Friday afternoon. Cleveland getting +7.5 at home was the attractive number against sharps took against Dallas.

"We got another one of those games with sharps liking the Bills (Monday night) at Seattle where we've seen sharp Bills play, but I think by game time that the public money is going to overpower what we have early on the Bills."

Translation: If you like Buffalo getting maximum points possible, wait closer to kickoff on Monday. Most books are currently showing Seattle -7 (EV) with the South Point showing -6.5 because they're the only book in town that uses exclusively flat numbers.

"Two of the games the public are real strong on are the Panthers and Packers and there's been no resistance from the wise-guys," Andrews said.

The Packers are 7-point home favorites against the Colts at the South Point with most other book either showing -7.5 (EV) or -7 (-120).

The Panthers have the same type of deal at Los Angeles laying 3 (-120) or -3.5 (EV). Carolina ended a four game losing streak last week against Arizona while the Rams come off a bye riding a three game losing streak. "The Rams are one of those teams that look real good at times, but in other spots they look awful," said Andrews.

"Then we have a couple games where the public is split on with good way action, but the sharps like one side -- the Raiders and Eagles."

Denver has gone 8-1-1 ATS against the Raiders over the past five seasons, but Oakland won the last meeting and both are tied atop the AFC West. Oakland is as high as -1.5 at a few books. Sharps liked the +3 with the Eagles at the Giants and it's a steady -2.5 everywhere.

Another big concern Andrews and the other books have to deal with this week that wasn't prominent last week because of low point spreads is teaser risk where he's already heavy on the Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers and Seahawks combination.

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Broncos at Raiders
November 5, 2016

The last time the Raiders were favored over the Broncos, quarterback Tim Tebow ran wild for the win and Denver didn't need the seven points as they notched a 38-24 road win in the 2011 season.

After that, the Broncos went on to win seven straight (6-0-1 ATS) as favorites over Oakland until the Raiders snapped the streak last December with a 15-12 win as six-point road 'dogs.

But Sunday night's meeting at Oakland figures to be a little different. First of all the Raiders are favored. Both teams are tied at 6-2 atop the AFC West and Oakland is on the verge of having their first winning record and playoff appearance since 2002.

The Broncos are still figuring out their offensive identity, but feature one of the most feared defenses in the league. It's almost the same situation that led Denver to a Super Bowl win last season, just with more questions offensively.

Oakland comes in with one of the more liberal defenses, ranked 31st in total yards (410 YPG). However, they have one the most exciting offenses led by quarterback Derek Carr and a pair a wide receivers who routinely find themselves open. Carr, with 17 TDs and only three interceptions, has made it clear that the Raiders are never out of a game and routinely erases fourth-quarter deficits. The team has a confidence level not seen since 2002 when the franchise earned a trip to the Super Bowl.

The glaring stat that stands out for this one is that the Raiders have failed to cover their last seven home games. The Broncos have also won and covered their last five games at Oakland.

This should be a terrific match-up between long time rivals. The football season just seems better overall when the "Silver and Black" actually matter.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Broncos -1 on Sunday night and after bouncing from pick 'em to -1 a few times through Tuesday, on Wednesday they stayed at pick 'em and then were pushed to Oakland -1 on Thursday and as high as -2 on Friday until settling at -1.5. The total dropped from 44 down to 43.5 on Thursday.

WHO DO THE SPORTSBOOKS NEED?

South Point sports book director Chris Andrews said this game falls into the category of having "a couple games where the public is split on with good two-way action, but the sharps like one side -- the Raiders and Eagles."

ROBERTS RATING

I have the Broncos only 1-point higher than the Raiders on a neutral field and I'll give the home field a value of only 2-points because the Broncos are better and Oakland hasn't covered expectations (point-spread) in their last seven home games. That still comes out to Raiders -1 as a starting point and that's where sharp money pushed it.

RECENT MEETINGS

The Raiders ended an eight-game losing streak against the Broncos with a 15-12 win at Denver last December while gaining only 126 total yards. QB Brock Osweiler would lose his first game as a starter after four straight wins, despite throwing for 308 yards and no interceptions. The star of the game was Raiders linebacker Khalil Mack with five sacks on the day. Both games stayed 'under' the total last season.

MACK ATTACK

Denver knows first-hand just how dominant Mack can be and it looks likes he's starting to heat up on the edge after a sluggish start to 2016. After just one sack in his first five games, he's had four in his past three.

WEATHER

This is the time of year to start paying real close attention to the weather conditions before wagering, especially in eastern and midwest locations. Oakland will be mostly cloudy at 63 degrees Sunday night with wind coming from the west at 6-11 mph.

KEY INJURIES

Denver will be without Pro Bowl CB Aqib Talib (lower back) and RBC.J. Anderson (knee). Back-up RB Devontae Booker is questionable with a banged up shoulder. The Raiders have two question marks with CB Sean Smith (shoulder) and WR Michael Crabtree (leg).

TRENDS

-- Denver 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 games.
--Denver Under total in last six games against winning teams.
-- Denver Over total in last four Week 9 game.

-- Oakland 3-7 ATS in last 10 games against AFC West.
-- Oakland Over total in last six Week 9 games.
-- Oakland 8-3-1 to Over in its last 12 home games.

SUNDAY NIGHT PROPS (WESTGATE)

-- Total completions by Trevor Siemian: 20.5
-- Total receiving yards by Emmanuel Sanders: 76.5
-- Total passing yards by Derek Carr: 258.5
-- Total TD passes by Derek Carr: 1.5 UN -120
-- Total receiving yards by Amari Cooper: 74.5
-- Total QB sacks by both teams: 4

NEXT WEEK

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted Week 10 odds on Tuesday with Denver a 1-point favorite at New Orleans. Oakland is one of six teams with a bye week.

UPDATED AFC WEST ODDS (WESTGATE)
Broncos 3/2
Chiefs 8/5
Raiders 9/4
Chargers 40/1

UPDATED SUPER BOWL ODDS (WESTGATE)
Broncos 12/1
Raiders 20/1

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NFL TRENDS

acksonville at Kansas City, 1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville: 25-12 OVER off a road loss against a division rival
Kansas City: 1-13 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games

Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 PM ET
Detroit: 12-35 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4
Minnesota: 7-0 ATS off a division game

Philadelphia at NY Giants, 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia: 22-10 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game
New York: 33-60 ATS in November games

Dallas at Cleveland, 1:00 PM ET
Dallas: 12-2 ATS in games played on a grass field
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS as a home underdog

NY Jets at Miami, 1:00 PM ET
New York: 50-30 ATS in road games versus division opponents
Miami: 5-13 ATS against conference opponents

Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 47-27 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game
Baltimore: 2-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses

New Orleans at San Francisco, 4:05 PM ET
New Orleans: 47-29 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
San Francisco: 4-13 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points

Carolina at Los Angeles, 4:05 PM ET
Carolina: 33-17 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4
Los Angeles: 39-60 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse

Indianapolis at Green Bay, 4:25 PM ET
Indianapolis: 9-1 OVER in games played on a grass field
Green Bay: 15-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Tennessee at San Diego, 4:25 PM ET
Tennessee: 3-14 ATS against conference opponents
San Diego: 8-0 ATS off a division game

Denver at Oakland, 8:30 PM ET
Denver: 7-0 ATS as an underdog
Oakland: 2-9 ATS in home games

[StarDust Bum]

Value Index Edge

SUNDAY, NOV. 6, 2016

Rotation Teams VI Index Homefield Edge Adjusted Rating Odds VI Edge

451 Jacksonville 98.5 - - -
452 Kansas City 103.5 3 107.5 -7.5 +1.5

453 Detroit 102 - - - +1
454 Minnesota 104 3 107 -6 -

455 Philadelphia 101.5 - - - -
456 N.Y. Giants 102 3 105 -2.5 +1

457 Dallas 103.5 - - -7 -
458 Cleveland 96 2.5 98.5 - +2

459 N.Y. Jets 99.5 - - - +.5
460 Miami 99.5 3 102.5 -3.5 -

461 Pittsburgh 99 - - - -
462 Baltimore 101 3 104 -2 +3

463 New Orleans 100 - - -3.5 -
464 San Francisco 97.5 2.5 - - +3.5

465 Carolina 102.5 - - -3 -
466 Los Angeles 100 3 103 - +3.5

467 Indianapolis 100 - - - +1.5
468 Green Bay 102.5 3 - -7 -

469 Tennessee 102 - - - +4
470 San Diego 100.5 2.5 103 -5 -

471 Denver 103.5 - - -1 -
472 Oakland 103.5 2.5 - - +3.5

[StarDust Bum]

Steelers QB Roethlisberger active, starting at Ravens
November 6, 2016

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is active and in the starting lineup against Baltimore.

The Steelers made the announcement a little more than an hour before kickoff Sunday.

Roethlisberger underwent surgery on his right knee on Oct. 17 and missed one game. He was replaced by Landry Jones in Pittsburgh's game against New England two weeks ago before receiving an extra week to recover during a bye.

The 13-year veteran took first-team snaps while participating in limited capacity in three practices leading up to Sunday's AFC North matchup against the Ravens.

Roethlisberger has completed 60 percent of his passes and thrown for 27 touchdowns in 17 regular-season games against Baltimore.

Dallas Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant is active and looks ready to play against the winless Cleveland Browns. Bryant was listed as questionable Friday despite practicing. He returned to the lineup last week after missing a month with a hairline fracture in his right knee. Bryant made several one-handed grabs while warming up before Sunday's game, delighting a huge throng of Dallas fans who may outnumber Browns backers at FirstEnergy Stadium.

Detroit's top cornerback, Darius Slay, will miss his second straight game because of a hamstring injury. He was listed as questionable on the injury report.

Kansas Chiefs running back Knile Davis was active against Jacksonville, one day after signing and capping a whirlwind three-week odyssey through Green Bay and the New York Jets.

Spencer Ware was ruled out this week with a concussion, and Bishop Sankey was signed to provide some depth but couldn't get up to speed quickly enough. He was inactive against the Jaguars.

Nick Foles is starting at quarterback for the Chiefs as Alex Smith recovers from a head injury.

Jaguars defensive end Jared Odrick was out for the fourth time in six games with a foot injury.

Here's a full list of each team's inactive players for the Sunday early games:

---

PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE

Steelers: WR Markus Wheaton, CB Justin Gilbert, LB L.J. Fort, FB Roosevelt Nicks, T Brian Mihalik,, QB Zach Mettenberger, DE L.T. Walton.

Ravens: CB Shareece Wright, LB Elvis Dumervil, TE Crockett Gillmore, LB Kamalei Correa, G Ryan Jensen, G Vladimir Ducasse, DT Willie Henry.

---

DALLAS at CLEVELAND

Cowboys: QB Tony Romo, CB Mo Claiborne, RB Darius Jackson, S Barry Church, LB Mark Nzeocha, DE Ryan Davis, OT Chaz Green.

Browns: QB Joe Callahan, QB Kevin Hogan, LB Corey Lemonier, OL Gabe Ikard, OL Jonathan Cooper, WR Jordan Payton, DL Stephen Paea.

---

JACKSONVILLE at KANSAS CITY

Jaguars: QB Brandon Allen, WR Rashad Greene, RB Corey Grant, DE Jared Odrick, OL Bryce Harris, TE Neal Sterling, DT Richard Ash.

Chiefs: QB Alex Smith, RB Spencer Ware, CB D.J. White, RB Bishop Sankey, CB Terrance Mitchell, OL Mike Person, TE Ross Travis.

---

NEW YORK JETS at MIAMI

Jets: QB Christian Hackenberg, TE Kellen Davis, LB Darron Lee, LB Bruce Carter, C Nick Mangold, OT Brent Qvale, TE Eric Tomlinson.

Dolphins: CB Jordan Lucas, CB Xavien Howard, CB Bene Benwikere, DE Nick Williams, DE Terrence Fede, OT Sam Young, TE Dion Sims.

---

DETROIT at MINNESOTA

Lions: CB Darius Slay, LB DeAndre Levy, RB Justin Forsett, TE Khari Lee, T Riley Reiff, G Joe Dahl, CB Johnthan Banks.

Vikings: WR Jarius Wright, LB Eric Kendricks, G Zac Kerin, DT Sharrif Floyd, G Alex Boone, TE MyCole Pruitt, TE David Morgan.

---

PHILADELPHIA at NEW YORK GIANTS

Eagles: G Allen Barbre, DT Bennie Logan, DT Taylor Hart, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, G Dillon Gordon, G Josh Andrews.

Giants: QB Ryan Nassib, DE Kerry Wynn, LB Deontae Skinner, S Darian Thompson, OT Will Beatty, DB Leon Hall, WR Tavarres King.

[StarDust Bum]

The Latest: Cowboys' Bryant active, looks ready to play
November 6, 2016

The Latest on Week 9 of the NFL season (all times Eastern):


11:50 a.m.

Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant is active and looks ready to play against the winless Browns.

Bryant was listed as questionable on Friday despite practicing. He only returned to the lineup last week after missing a month with a hairline fracture in his right knee. Bryant made several one-handed grabs while warming up before Sunday's game, delighting a huge throng of Dallas fans who may outnumber Browns backers at FirstEnergy Stadium.

Bryant has 15 catches for 263 yards and two touchdowns. A healthy Bryant gives Cowboys rookie quarterback another down-field weapon, which could open things up for the NFL's top rushing game.

Dallas is looking for its seventh straight win after losing the opener.

---

11:30 a.m.

The Raiders and Broncos are a fitting Week 9 headliner, playing in prime time with first place in the AFC West on the line.

And matchups between the Steelers and Ravens as well as the Eagles against the Giants are giving this week a rivalry feel.

The Lions also visit Minnesota, where the Vikings have enjoyed one of the league's more lopsided rivalries. The teams haven't played in Minnesota's new stadium, though.

Detroit-Minnesota, Pittsburgh-Baltimore and Philadelphia-Giants are among the games scheduled for the early start at 1 p.m. Eastern time, along with the Jets visiting Miami, the Jaguars playing the Chiefs and the Cowboys facing the Browns.

The late afternoon games include: New Orleans at San Francisco, Carolina at Los Angeles, Indianapolis at Green Bay and Tennessee at San Diego.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:

10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 72-90-4 44.44% -13500

O/U Picks 67-95-5 41.36% -18750

Triple Plays:..... 18 - 26 - 1


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 6

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

DET at MIN 01:00 PM

MIN -6.0 *****

U 42.5 *****

DAL at CLE 01:00 PM

DAL -7.0 *****

U 49.0 *****

PIT at BAL 01:00 PM

BAL +3.5

O 46.0

JAC at KC 01:00 PM

KC -7.5 *****

O 43.0 *****

PHI at NYG 01:00 PM

PHI +3.0 ***** NFL EAST GOM

O 42.5

NYJ at MIA 01:00 PM

MIA -3.5

O 45.0

NO at SF 04:05 PM

NO -4.5 *****

U 53.0 *****

CAR at LA 04:05 PM

LA +3.0 ***** NFC WEST GOM

U 44.5

IND at GB 04:25 PM

IND +7.5

O 53.0 ***** TOTAL OF THE DAY

TEN at SD 04:25 PM

SD -3.5 *****

O 47.0

DEN at OAK 08:30 PM

DEN +1.0 ***** SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH

U 43.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:

10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 78-94-5 45.35% -12700

O/U Picks 74-99-5 42.77% -17450

Triple Plays:..... 23 - 32 - 1

NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY................0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Capsules
November 6, 2016

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Latavius Murray ran for 114 yards and three touchdowns and the Oakland Raiders showed they were ready for prime time, beating the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos 30-20 on Sunday night.

In what was being billed as the biggest game in Oakland since the team went to the Super Bowl following the 2002 season, the Raiders (7-2) put together a complete effort to overpower the Broncos (6-3) and take over sole possession of first place in the AFC West.

Derek Carr threw for 184 yards and did not turn the ball over, Khalil Mack had two sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery and the Raiders outrushed Denver 218-33.

The performance was to the delight of an energetic crowd at the Coliseum, excited to host a prime time Sunday night game for the first time in more than a decade.

Trevor Siemian looked shaky at times for Denver but did throw two touchdown passes, including a short pass behind the line that Kapri Biggs turned into a 69-yard touchdown catch and run in the fourth quarter.

LIONS 22, VIKINS 16, OT

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) - Matthew Stafford threw a 28-yard touchdown pass to Golden Tate, who vaulted into the end zone in overtime to lift Detroit past Minnesota.

After Matt Prater kicked a 58-yard field goal as time expired to force overtime, Tate finished the opening drive when he ran through arm tackles by Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith and leaped in for the winning score.

Stafford completed 23 of 36 passes for 219 yards, two touchdowns and an interception for the Lions (5-4), who have won four of their past five games. Tate had 11 catches for 79 yards.

Sam Bradford completed 31 of 40 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown for the Vikings (5-3), who started the season 5-0 but have imploded since coming out of the bye. Stefon Diggs had a career-high 13 catches for 80 yards.

GIANTS 28, EAGLES 23

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) - Eli Manning threw for four touchdowns and New York's defense had two interceptions and three stops on fourth downs to beat Philadelphia.

The Giants (5-3) won their third straight game, holding off the Eagles (4-4 after a 3-0 start) after Manning was intercepted with less than two minutes to go.

Two of Manning's touchdowns went to Odell Beckham Jr., with the others to Roger Lewis Jr. and Sterling Shepard.

Manning moved into ninth place in yards passing with 46,428. Manning, in his 13th NFL season, threw for 257 yards against Philadelphia. He passed Vinny Testaverde, who had 46,233 yards through the air.

RAVENS 21, STEELERS 14

BALTIMORE (AP) - Joe Flacco threw a 95-yard touchdown pass to Mike Wallace, and Baltimore frustrated an ineffective Ben Roethlisberger in a victory over Pittsburgh.

Baltimore (4-4) snapped a four-game losing streak and moved into a tie atop the AFC North with the Steelers (4-4), who have dropped three in a row.

Three weeks after undergoing surgery on his right knee, Roethlisberger returned well ahead of schedule. Playing for the first time since Oct. 16, the 13-year veteran looked out of sync until the fourth quarter, when he directed a 75-yard drive that got the Steelers to 21-7 with 8:38 remaining.

Before that, Pittsburgh's offense produced only two first downs and was limited to 69 yards. The Steelers finished with 36 yards rushing, 32 by Le'Veon Bell.

Roethlisberger ran for a 4-yard score with 48 seconds left, but Chris Boswell botched the onside kick - barely knocking it off the tee - and Baltimore ran out the clock.

CHARGERS 43, TITANS 35

SAN DIEGO (AP) - Melvin Gordon ran for a career-high 196 yards and scored the go-ahead TD on a 1-yard run, and defensive backs Dwight Lowery and Brandon Flowers scored on turnovers by Marcus Mariota to lead the Chargers over Tennessee, which still hasn't won in San Diego since 1990.

The Chargers (4-5) won two days before the team will ask voters to approve a billion-dollar subsidy for a new downtown stadium to replace aging Qualcomm Stadium. The measure was polling well short of the two-thirds supermajority needed to pass.

Gordon, who leads the NFL with 11 touchdowns, scored on a 1-yard run with 5:28 left in the third quarter to give the Chargers a 26-21 lead. He ran 32 times, and broke a 47-yard run in the closing minutes. He also caught four passes for 65 yards.

Mariota, who led the Titans to a 21-19 lead by guiding two quick scoring drives on either side of halftime, helped the Chargers surge to a 12-point lead when he fumbled late in the third quarter. Lowery picked up the ball ran 43 yards for a touchdown and a 33-21 lead.

The Titans (4-5) have lost seven straight in San Diego since 1993, when they were the Houston Oilers. The franchise's last victory in San Diego was in 1990.

COLTS 31, PACKERS 26

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) - Frank Gore rushed for two touchdowns, Jordan Todman had a tone-setting 99-yard return on the opening kickoff and Indianapolis held on for a win over Green Bay.

Andrew Luck shook off two interceptions in the first quarter to finish with 281 yards passing and a touchdown. The Colts, who had allowed an NFL-worst 31 sacks coming into the game, gave their quarterback decent protection.

Indianapolis (4-5) heads into a bye week with a confidence-building victory after surviving a vintage Aaron Rodgers comeback.

His 3-yard touchdown pass to Randall Cobb with 3:29 left got Green Bay (4-4) within five, capping a 14-point spurt in four-plus minutes.

Rodgers finished 26 of 43 for 297 yards with three scores and an interception.

SAINTS 41, 49ERS 23

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) - Drew Brees threw a pair of touchdown passes to Michael Thomas and another to Mark Ingram, who also ran for a 75-yard score a week after being benched and New Orleans beat lowly San Francisco.

Ingram, replaced by Tim Hightower during last Sunday's 25-20 win against Seattle after fumbling for a second straight game, scored his second straight TD for the Saints on a career-long run to answer immediately after DuJuan Harris caught a 47-yard touchdown pass from Colin Kaepernick. Ingram's run also was the second-longest in Saints history and he wound up with 158 yards rushing as San Francisco allowed an opposing 100-yard runner for the seventh straight game.

The Saints (4-4) have grabbed back some momentum and returned to the race in the NFC South. They won for the fourth time in five games following an 0-3 start and eighth in the past 10 regular-season meetings with San Francisco. The Niners (1-7) didn't have nearly enough to avoid their seventh straight loss since shutting out the Rams to start the season.

PANTHERS 13, RAMS 10

LOS ANGELES (AP) - Cam Newton persevered through five sacks to pass for 225 yards and a touchdown, and Carolina's defense shut down Los Angeles.

Greg Olsen caught a touchdown pass in the first half and Graham Gano added two fourth-quarter field goals for the Panthers (3-5), who won their second straight after a four-game skid.

Newton's offense managed just 244 yards against the Rams' vaunted defense, but the Panthers nearly shut out Los Angeles in a defense-dominated game.

Case Keenum passed for 296 yards for the Rams (3-5), who have lost four straight after a strong start to their homecoming season. Los Angeles' scoreless streak reached 102 minutes, 12 seconds before Greg Zuerlein's 25-yard field goal with 8:01 to play.

DOLPHINS 27, JETS 23

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) - Rookie Kenyan Drake scored untouched on a 96-yard kickoff return with 5:15 left, and Miami won a seesaw battle with New York Jets.

Jay Ajayi rushed for 111 yards and helped to run out the clock after the Dolphins came from behind for the third time.

A botched Dolphins punt led to a touchdown that put New York ahead 23-20. On the ensuing kickoff , New York's Antonio Allen was called for being offside, so the Jets had to kick again. Drake took the kickoff, found a lane and sped past the final Jet - kicker Nick Folk - into the clear.

The Dolphins (4-4) won their third game in a row, while New York (3-6) fell deeper into last place in the AFC East. The Jets hurt themselves with four personal foul penalties, two interceptions thrown by Ryan Fitzpatrick and numerous missed chances.

COWBOYS 35, BROWNS 10

CLEVELAND (AP) - Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott threw three touchdown passes and kept any talk for Tony Romo unnecessary, leading Dallas over winless Cleveland.

Rookie Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 92 yards and scored twice and durable tight end Jason Witten had 134 yards receiving for the Cowboys, off to their best start since 2007.

Prescott has won seven straight starts since losing the season opener, and with the Cowboys (7-1) leading the NFC East and getting better, there's no reason for the team to accelerate Romo's return from a back injury.

The miserable Browns (0-9) dropped their franchise-record 12th straight game going back to last season and are 3-27 in their past 30. They also started 0-9 in 1975.

CHIEFS 19, JAGUARS 14

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) - Kansas City stuffed Jacksonville on fourth down with less than 2 minutes left deep in its own territory, preserving a victory despite finishing without five offensive starters.

Nick Foles threw for 187 yards and a first-half touchdown toss to Albert Wilson, and helped to set up four field goals by Cairo Santos, as Kansas City (6-2) won its 10th consecutive home game.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars (2-6) couldn't overcome four turnovers - including a fumble at the goal line in the fourth quarter - in their first game with quarterback coach Nathaniel Hackett directing the offense.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 9 of the Westgate Super Contest in Las Vegas:

1) Denver Broncos, even (695)- L

2) Pittsburgh Steelers, even (605)- L

3) New Orleans Saints, -3.5 (575)- W

4) Carolina Panthers, -3 (525)- T

5) Philadelphia Eagles, +2.5 (474)- L

6) Chiefs -7- L/Titans +5 (472)- L

Season record: 18-35-2- rough year for popular opinions

Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Falcons 43, Buccaneers 28— Tampa Bay is now 17-43 in its last 60 home games; they fired Lovie Smith because they didn’t want QB guru Dirk Koetter to leave, but Winston isn’t playing as well now. This was halfway point of season and Tampa hasn’t won a home game. Atlanta is in good shape at 6-3- they haven’t had their bye yet, either. Over is 8-1 in Falcon games.

Chiefs 19, Jaguars 14— Kansas City had 16-yard edge in field position; they started four drives in Jax territory, kicking three FGs, scoring only one TD, and that was on a 23-yard drive, so if you gave the points, thats why you lost. With 8:23 left and KC up 19-7, Jaguars fumbled on 6-inch line as runner was crossing goal line; they scored on their next drive, but fell just short of pulling the upset. Under is 6-1 in Chiefs’ last seven games.

Lions 22, Vikings 16 OT— Three weeks ago, Vikings were 5-0 and on an 18-2 run against the spread, which rarely happens. Now they’re 5-3, their OC quit and both their OT’s are hurt. In this game, Minnesota scored with 0:23 left in regulation to take lead, then Stafford got Lions into position for game-tying 58-yard FG at gun. Vikings’ PK Blair Walsh missed a PAT and had FG blocked- he might not be employed much longer. Every Detroit game has been decided by 7 or less points. Success in the NFL is extremely fragile.

Giants 28, Eagles 23— Wentz threw picks on first two possessions, Giants grabbed 14-0 lead 5:07 into game; in second quarter, after a Philly FG, Pederson passed up FG tries of 40, 23 yards to try and get a first down, failing both times- they also had a FG blocked, then came up empty in the red zone on their last drive. You get ball in red zone six times and score only 20 points, you deserve to lose. If Eagles kick those 2nd quarter FGs, this might’ve been a different ending.

Cowboys 35, Browns 10— Not much to say here; a complete ass-kicking. During Rams’ game, FOX’s Kevin Burkhardt said “Right now, Dallas is best team in the NFC.” His partner John Lynch responded very quickly/skeptically, “Thats what the records say.” Cleveland is horrible.

Credit to Jason Garrett for this: Cowboys are 7-1 vs spread in last eight games as a road favorite- they win games they’re expected to win.

Dolphins 27, Jets 23— Jets scored in last 6:00 to take lead, but Miami ran kick back 96 yards for game-winning TD. This was Miami’s 4th straight home game, with a bye in between; their next two games are in southern California. Greg Gumbel/Trent Green had this game; they are a better crew than Nantz/Simms, and not because of Nantz.

Ravens 21, Steelers 14— This was Baltimore’s first win since September 25 and they’re in first place in AFC North, which is terrible this year. Ravens scored one offensive TD, a 95-yard pass in first quarter- their other TD was on a blocked punt. Bengals are 3-4-1, only half-game out of first place. Roethlisberger was obviously rusty as he returned too soon from his injury. Ravens are 12-3 off their last 15 bye weeks.

Saints 41, 49ers 23— In their last three games, Saints have run 62 more plays than their opponents. NO is now 4-4 after an 0-3 start. Chip Kelly should take Phil Knight’s $10M and go back to Oregon; 49ers are horrendous. Six of last seven SF games went over the total. Niners were outscored 91-23 in second half of their last five games.

Panthers 13, Rams 10— I could go on for a while about the Rams, but right now, I only want to know one thing; has Jeff Fisher’s contract been extended past this year? No one knows.

If it has been, then what he’s doing with Jared Goff is the proper course of action, let the kid learn on the sidelines and they’ll grow together.

If Fisher’s contract hasn’t been extended, then this is unacceptable, holding the franchise hostage so he can get a new deal, because this Case Keenum-led offense is putrid. Fisher makes $7M a year and right now, his team isn’t good. He really doesn’t deserve the extension.

The last 22 times the Rams have had the ball, their offense has outscored the other team’s defense, 10-7. How much bleeping worse could Goff be?

Colts 31, Packers 26— Misleading score; Indy kicked their butts in this game, running opening kick back for a TD, then running another kick back 61 yards later in first half. Over is 7-2 in Colt games this year. If you had Aaron Rodgers at QB, wouldn’t you get him a couple of really fast WRs? Green Bay scored 58 points in its last two games and lost both of them- they’re not athletic enough.

I’m mad because the Rams are 3-5; hell, the Packers have Rodgers and they’re 4-4.

Chargers 43, Titans 35— Ken Whishenhunt almost hung half a hundred on the team that fired him as HC last year, though they did score two defensive TDs. There is a proposition on the ballot in San Diego Tuesday to raise the hotel tax to pay for a new stadium for the Chargers; it needs 66.7% to pass, but if it gets over 50%, then the stadium is in limbo. Over is 7-2 in Charger games, 6-0 in last six Titan tilts.

Raiders 30, Broncos 20— Oakland ran ball for 218 yards, had 18-yard edge in field position; before this game, most rushing yards Denver had allowed was 157. In their first eight games, Denver’s defense scored three TDs, created field position for 10 TDs where scoring drive was less than 60 yards. Broncos’ average starting position here was their own 19-yard line, worst in NFL this week. Oakland is 7-2 and atop AFC West, with second-best record in AFC.

In baseball news, Colorado Rockies will name Bud Black their new manager Monday morning. Interesting that a former manager willl manage the Rockies, given the problems pitches have had pitching in high altitude.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football betting preview: Bills at Seahawks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Russell Wilson has zero touchdown passes and one interception in the last three and has rushed for only 16 yards in 10 carries in that span.

Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 44)

Following a pair of six-point losses to open the season, Buffalo Bills coach Rex Ryan opined that playing a difficult opponent might be just what his team needs to get back on a winning track. That mindset will be in play Monday night for Buffalo, which pays a visit to perhaps the league's toughest venue when it visits the Seattle Seahawks.

The Bills have dropped two in a row to AFC East rivals Miami and New England, prompting Ryan to basically concede the division, and a third straight defeat could seriously jeopardize their wild-card hopes. "Obviously this is probably another top-five team in the NFL," Buffalo linebacker Lorenzo Alexander said. "You don’t want to look that far ahead but each game is very important and at this point we still control our own destiny, but we’ve got to get back on a winning row here." Seattle also needs to get back in the win column after coming up empty in back-to-back road games, falling at New Orleans last weekend following a tie at Arizona. The Seahawks are a different animal at CenturyLink Field with a 3-0 record this season, although two of the wins have come by two points.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as 7-point home favorites and, despite a brief drop to -6.5 on Tuesday, remain at that opening fugure of -7 on Sunday night. The total hit the betting board at 44, dropped briefly to 43.5 and return to the original number of 44 by game day. View the complete line history here.

WEATHER: The conditions in Seattle are expected to be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the lower 60's and a 15 percent chance of rain showers for Monday Night Football. The humididy level will be high (75 percent) and a slight breeze will not be a factor.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Bills hold the offensive edge in this game, averaging 26.5 points per game and 5.8 yards per play, compared to Seattle's 18.7 ppg and 5.6 yppl. However, the Seahawks hold the defensive edge, allowing just 15.6 points per game and 5.1 yards per play this season, compared to a Buffalo defense that permits 21.5 ppg and 5.9 yppl this season."

INJURIES:

Bills - TE C. Clay (probable, knee), RB L. McCoy (probable, hamstring), WR R. Woods (probable, foot), WR M. Goodwin (probable, concussion), T C. Glenn (questionable, ankle), T S. Henderson (questionable, back), WR B. Tate (questionable, concussion), LB L. Alexander (questionable, hamstring), RB R. Bush (questionable, groin), DT M. Dareus (out, leg), C P. Lewis (out, knee), QB C. Jones (out, shoulder), WR M. Easley (questionable, knee), WR K. Listenbee (questionable, hernia), S A. Williams (I-R, neck), S C. Anderson (I-R, hand), WR S. Watkins (elig Week 12, foot), TE B. Annen (I-R, neck), TE C. Gragg (I-R, knee), DB J. Dowling (I-R, knee), LB R. Ragland (I-R, knee), LB I. Enemkpali (I-R, knee).

Seahawks - QB R. Wilson (probable, knee), TE J. Graham (probable, knee), DT T. McDaniel (probable, undisclosed), LB K. Pierre-Louis (questionable, ankle), T B. Sowell (questionable, knee), CB D. Elliott (questionable, hamstring), TE L. Willson (doubtful, knee), S K. Chancellor (out, groin), DE M. Bennett (out, knee), RB R. Rawls (out, shin), DT J. Hill (I-R, hamstring), DT Q. Jefferson (I-R, knee), DT G. Smith (I-R, undisclosed), LB M. Morgan (I-R, hip), TE J. Sommers (I-R, ankle), WR T. Slavin (I-R, undisclosed), DE T. Barnes (I-R, arm), CB S. Jean-Baptiste (I-R, shoulder).

ABOUT THE BILLS (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 O/U): The No. 1 topic for Buffalo is the health of star running back LeSean McCoy, who sat out last week's game after being limited to 11 yards against the Dolphins in Week 7. McCoy, who rumbled for 470 yards and five touchdowns in Weeks 3-6, was limited at Thursday's practice but expressed optimism that he would be available Monday night. "I feel good. Mentally, I feel great," McCoy said. "Just getting over that step of, ‘If I make this hard cut, will I feel it?’ I did it today, different runs. So I’m ready to roll." Quarterback Tyrod Taylor would benefit most from the return of McCoy, with the Bills' passing game ranking 31st at 179.4 yards per game.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (4-2-1 SU, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U): Despite guiding Seattle to 10 points in the final five minutes of a come-from-behind win over Atlanta in Week 6, quarterback Russell Wilson has struggled over the past three games. Wilson, who battled knee and ankle injuries, has zero touchdown passes and one interception in the last three and has rushed for only 16 yards in 10 carries in that span. Rookie running back C.J. Prosise appears ready to assume a bigger role in the offense behind Christine Michael after accumulating 103 yards scrimmage last week. Seattle allows 89.7 yards on the ground, but defensive end Michael Bennett is out and safety Kam Chancellor likely is as well.

TRENDS:

* Bills are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 6-0 in Bills last 6 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 Monday games.
* Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The bettors are backing the Seahawks with 52 percent of the wagers on the home favorites. As for the total, 59 percent of bettors are taking the Under.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 7


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


BUF at SEA 08:30 PM


SEA -6.0 *****


U 43.0 *****